#did you know that refusing to vote for biden in protest just hands that vote to trump and does NOTHING to help the palestinian ppl?

[shipperwolf1]

"I support palestine so much that I'm willing to help destroy my own country (further) to prove it"

@neolesbian

Okay, but you cannot end the statement there.

Then what?

I promise I am not looking to be contentious. I'd prefer not to fight and have a discussion. I am genuinely curious where you go from there. I just don't understand your point of view.

I'll tell you my thought process and you are free to tell me yours.

So you don't vote for Biden. Do you not vote at all? Do you have a viable alternative candidate? Or do you plan to do a protest vote for someone with no chance of winning?

Also, what if you or someone who feels the same as you lives in an area where not voting for Biden is essentially a spoiler vote for Trump? Do you still support not voting for Biden?

What do you think the consequences of that could be?

Every single far right politician is enthusiastically calling for blood. All of them want to fund the Israeli government and IDF, probably to a greater extent.

So I feel you get the same result, but you also get far right judges with lifetime appointments. Perhaps even another on the Supreme Court. A border wall. An increase of concentration camps near the border. Federal bans on gender affirming care. Bathroom laws. Anti-drag laws. Anti-choice will probably get codified. Any public health emergency will not be taken seriously and the elderly and disabled will die needlessly. Public schools will continue to get worse. Books will continue to be banned. Don't say gay laws. Don't say trans laws. School prayer. More tax cuts for the rich. The wage gap increases. Cost of living increases. Cost of healthcare increases. Voting restrictions. Voter ID laws. Gerrymandering. They could poison our elections to the point no progressive candidate would ever have a chance for not just the presidency, but also US Congress.

Put simply, if you are truly trying to help Palestine, how do you feel not voting for Biden accomplishes that?

[aashiqeddiediaz]

you know, after watching day 3 of the democratic national convention, i need to say something, especially to other muslims like me.

most of the muslim communities that i'm a part of have chosen to vote uncommitted, or independent, or sometimes, even trump. they refuse to give their vote to kamala harris and tim walz, because of the way the us has handled the war in gaza, and how they have been careless with acknowledging palestinian lives lost, how it was american bombs and american tax money that went towards funding this genocide. it's fucked up, and it's wrong, and there shouldn't be any debate on that.

and i am 100% in support of that anger. i am 100% in support of forcing america to stop funding this genocide. no one wants to keep seeing palestinian lives suffer. no one is free until we're all free, and i believe that to my very core.

my only concern is that where this anger is being placed, from 1 year to 11 weeks before the presidential election, is so scary. because the reality of the situation is that america has a bipartisan outlook. whoever gets the presidency is either democrat or republican. and every vote that doesn't go towards democracy (i.e. voting for kamala harris) inadvertently goes towards trump's big plan of project 2025, which is basically dictatorship. Even voting uncommitted, even voting independent. we cannot afford to elect trump for a second term, and voting anything other than democrat draws that line way too close, especially in swing states like michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, georgia.

yes, there are many issues that we wish joe biden would handle better. there are many ways that the democratic party has fucked up beyond repair. there are many ways the democratic party has refused to acknowledge the pain of people affected by their military people throughout the years, and we've been seeing it for years. this is not a new thing. this did not start on october 7th. we see it during pretty much every administration.

however, voting for your candidate should never be based on a singular issue. no political candidate is ever going to check every single box. and its so unfortunate that we have to always take the "lesser of two evils" approach when nominating our president, but that's the reality of the situation at this very moment. there are many other rights to be considered that are at stake this election, all of which trump is trying to remove. abortion bans, women's rights, healthcare, social security, climate change, to name a few.

(and, somehow, there's a belief that trump will lead to a ceasefire deal where biden-harris didn't? let me tell you that is never going to happen.)

does this mean we just stop protesting or pressuring? absolutely not. you NEVER stop, because if our votes are the ones that put the candidate in their position of power, then we expect results. we expect them to work towards what they promised. and we can't let up on reaching out to our local county offices and our state governors and escalating these issues further until someone takes notice and does something about them. we don't elect them and just leave them to do what they want. we keep them accountable. use that anger i was talking about.

but it also means not having tunnel vision. the election in november could very well mean the end of democracy if kamala harris doesn't win. this post is not me all giggly-happy over the democratic party, because trust me, i have my fair share of issues with them as well. this post isn't to tell you what to do, because i can't force you to vote blue. i can't force the community i'm in to change their minds about toss-up votes. but what i can do is put down plainly what's at stake this election. and that is, very simply, our right to choose everything.

so if you are eligible to vote and haven't registered, please do. if you haven't voted before because "what's the point", please see above what the point is. a handful of votes is enough to flip the outcome of an election, especially with the electoral college.

and if you're still on the fence on whether to vote for kamala or trump, hopefully this post gives a little bit more perspective in the most streamlined way i could manage without bogging you down with statistics and numbers.

the choice is yours.

[iizzeee]

Guys, I am begging you. Please please please please please PLEASE do NOT vote 3rd party, or not vote at all.

I get it. I really do. Biden’s handling of Israel has been, not gonna mince words, dogshit. Abominable. Unspeakably bad.

But we cannot afford to protest like this.

We don’t need Biden as president. We do need to keep Trump out of office. And to those who respond “well, I don’t want just the lesser of two evils,” please, for the love of god, grow the fuck up.

For one, why wouldn’t you want the lesser of two evils. It is, by definition, LESS EVIL.

“Why can’t we just have no evil, why isn’t that an option.” I really wish it was. Just as much as you. But it’s not. These are our cards, and we have to play our hand to the best of our ability.

Which brings us to two.

Trump is more evil. Like, so much more evil. We’re comparing apples and oranges here guys.

I understand that a lot of you might doubt that. The largest demographic of people advocating for third party or non-votes are in the 18-26 range. New voters, with one or no elections under their belt.

So they don’t remember.

Most of us (I myself fall under this age range) don’t remember 2016. The election, that is. They don’t remember how so many people protested Hillary vs Trump by going 3rd party or writing in joke votes, because they saw the two as equally bad. And Trump won.

Half of us don’t remember the Trump presidency. We’ve heard he was a weird, bad, bigoted president, but don’t fully grasp the scope of how bad.

So off the top of my head, here are some highlights of real things Donald Trump did while he held office.

- threw toilet paper at hurricane victims like he was trying to shoot a 3-pointer

- fired the man investigating him for election fraud

- called African countries “shitholes”

- appointed members of the Supreme Court who would go on to overturn roe v wade

- stole classified documents from the white house to hide at his resort

- tried to instate a Muslim Ban

- incited a insurrection to try and keep himself in office, and maybe hang his VP if there was time

- looked directly at an eclipse. Like no glasses, full on.

- fueled covid conspiracies. Also told people to “drink bleach” to fight the virus

- withdrew us from the Paris Climate Accord

- cofefe. Remember that? What a fun, normal thing for the president to tweet at 2am.

- employed literal white supremacists

- called Nazi’s “very fine people”

- got endorsed by the KKK, and refused to condemn David Duke

And that’s just what I can remember right now.

So if you’re angry at Biden about Palestine, please please please do not think for a fucking second Trump would be better. He would almost certainly actively be worse. He would give Netanyahu the green light. If you think Biden has used a loose leash, at least it’s some kind of leash. Trump would be all in. Full chips, flying to the Middle East to send in the bombs himself.

If you’re still hesitant, consider this last plea.

Things are bad. These shouldn’t be the only two choice we have, but they are. You can’t look at the menu, which is offering either bland soup someone spit in or actual rat poison and go “could I have some steak”.

You can order the soup and live to write a one-star review on Yelp, maybe call health inspections on the restaurant or contact the owners and say “you guys know your menu has only two options and they’re both dogshit. If you don’t add more, you’ll be unemployed soon.”

Or you can order rat poison and die.

If we elect Donald Trump in the fall, we will be eating rat poison. He has repeatedly said himself to be in favor of a dictatorship. He quotes Hitler. If he is put in office, the change we all want and so critically need will not be fucking POSSIBLE. Because with Biden, it’ll be hard, and tedious, and long, and exhausting, but at least it will be goddamn possible.

So, come November, please don’t order the rat poison.

Please just eat your shitty ass soup so we can live to get really angry about it.

Please.

[thatstormygeek]

"People don't understand how different things would have been if Hillary had won!"

This is true. Things would have been very different. Ideally we'd have fewer Trump clones running for office now. But Trump didn't make the GOP what it is. It's been like this. Forever.

Why are our choices Biden or (presumably) Trump? Liberals love to point the finger at the Republicans (while using the other hand to indicate the left is pretty close to just as much at fault, really), absolving their own party of all responsibility.

"It's this or fascism!" Okay, but why now? What have the fucking Democrats been doing while in office that it's gotten to this? Hmm? Feel like taking a look at Bill Clinton's presidency? And then maybe truly ask yourself why exactly his fucking wife thought we'd want her to be running the country.

I voted for Hillary (because what choice did I have), but the woman couldn't even pretend to support indigenous people protesting a pipeline on their land. People keep acting like she was this great progressive hero and she's not. She was not. And still, we fucking voted for her.

And liberals re-litigated the 2016 election constantly over the following four years, until Biden was elected. Then not a peep. They were content. Until 2022 midterms. And until now. Because now it's time to remind all of us to fall in line again, and they're so tired because they have to come out here again and lecture all of us leftists about our responsibilities to vote for their guy because we are all just too incapable of complex thought processes to understand the value of compromise and lesser evils and all that.

It's almost like the only activism y'all think is worth doing is beating leftists over the head with your "Vote Blue No Matter Who" stick. Which, fine. Just stop pretending you actually give a shit about anything else. Because we see you. And we see what you're not talking about. And when.

If the height of feminism to you was filling in the circle next to Hillary Clinton's name, here are some better targets for your messaging:

It's so fucking frustrating because it's clear y'all aren't listening to what folks on the left (people way smarter and with way bigger reach than me) are saying. And it reveals a lot of what the "Just Vote" bluster tries to conceal:

We're not real to you. We're not people whose needs and desires matter. We're there to be numbers to prop up your bulwark against fascism and a convenient scapegoat when you inevitably lose elections (because you will not win every time). But you don't want to make those defenses too strong because if the Other Guys aren't a constant threat, you might have to grapple with the ideas you've considered beneath you forever.

I'm going to vote. I've been voting for years. I'll continue voting. Never in my life have I told someone not to bother to vote. But I'm not doing it because of y'all. I'm doing it in spite of your messaging.

The chart that should scare Dems is this one

The votes of that 49%? They do not belong to you. You are not automatically owed them. And yes, maybe voting for Dems is in the best interest of that 49%, but there's nothing saying they will do so. People do shit against their own best interests all the time. And they sure as shit do things against the best interests of people in general.

Which means y'all have to convince them to want to vote for you. If you're the type of person whose mom said "Clean your room" and you immediately jumped to do so after thanking her for the reminder, I can see why the Democratic party's messaging is working out for you. I am not that person and I don't know a lot of people who are. So y'all are going to have to offer more than the constant demand if you're going to pick those folks up.

Not to be a doomer, but I think y'all are a lost cause at this point. You've been told the same thing over and over and refuse to adapt, so I have to assume you prefer things the way they are. Which means it's only a matter of time--and probably not a lot of time, really. You can't win every election forever and if that's the only plan, well...it sucks.

I'll tell you what, though: nothing would make me happier than the Dems proving me wrong here.

[thessalian]

Thess vs Political Media Spin

Thinking about the French election (CONGRATULATIONS, FRANCE) and realising that it's probably finally time to discuss a thing about the UK elections that nobody in the media wants to talk about. Because they mostly want to talk about Reform's 4.1m votes and 5 Parliament seats. Which is ... okay, not entirely fair, but understandable given that an awful lot of news media is written for "engagement" and is thus generally ragebait. However, there are two things that those of us in the UK really, really need to keep in mind:

We had an atrociously low voter turn-out this year, probably because so many of us were depressed and beaten over how the two main parties are behaving right now.

The Greens came in second for votes in forty constituencies. One of them was mine. (That latter shouldn't surprise me because this whole borough has been a very safe Labour seat for awhile and isn't it funny how this place started leaning towards the Greens when that Tory-with-a-red-tie Starmer was leading the party? Almost as if all those "safe Labour votes" are just very lefty votes looking for a place to break out?)

Now, point 2 couldn't work in the US. You guys have a two-party system, just because of how your voting works. While you guys get Electoral College votes for That One Guy, we get actual seats - actual voices - in the House of Commons. And honestly, Labour would have still had its landslide even without the forty seats the Greens could have won if a few more people had actually come out. But even the Americans can take a message away from this, and the message is: "refusal to vote is very liable to cripple any chance things have of getting better".

For the US - if you don't vote Democrat, and Trump gets in again, he's going to destroy your country. The question becomes who you'd rather have stacking the Supreme Court, and who you'd like to hand the loaded gun that is the current Supreme Court's decision to give Presidents immunity from prosecution in the course of "official acts", particularly when the full and detailed definition of "official acts" has yet to be determined. Do not assume he'll never win - my mother assumed that in 2016, because apparently she has not as yet plumbed the depths of human stupidity the way only those of us whose brains are trash and who live on the internet can. Do not assume that Biden will get enough votes without you protest-voting for a third party. If you want some examples of how that thinking works out, consider Brexit, and how many people who actually voted for it and then said, "Well, I mean, I didn't think we'd actually leave; I just wanted to protest it a little!" immediately afterwards.

For those of us in the UK, though? I know a lot of people didn't come out and vote and I understand why. But look what could have happened if you had. Imagine forty-four seats for the Greens, instead of just four, and those forty-four voices speaking and voting for us in the Commons. Imagine if the Greens had got the kind of votes Reform did. The media could not have ignored that the way they ignore the Greens' four seats.

Media spin basically crushed those of us who want better into not voting at all. I don't know if this country will get better under Labour, but I doubt it, and I mourn the chance we had. I am so thrilled that France has at least shown that left-wing politics aren't entirely dead. I can't save my own country beyond my one vote (the Greens this year, and I'm happy to have contributed to an actual left-wing party getting the second-most votes in my constituency, thanks), but I can give warnings. To the UK ... I know Starmer's a dickweed, but we can get a louder voice in Commons if we don't just give up on the entire electoral process. To the US ... I get that Biden is ... honestly, he is better than Starmer; it's just that "slow and steady wins the race" policies don't make headlines anymore. Just ... do you want God-Emperor Trump? Not voting in the US is how you get God-Emperor Trump.

[twosheepandagoat]

I’ve read that we need to get a new candidate to primary Biden and think a year is enough time. The first state’s deadline to be on their primary ballot was October. The bulk are November to December. So if you wanna primary Biden, you have paperwork, plus raise money (campaigns are fucking expensive) and get that candidate national recognition. We are beyond crunch time.

Likewise, a refusal of voting will be handing the victory for trump or any other republican candidate. Project 2025 is their blue print for full fascism. I’ve heard many state that they already have no rights. You do have rights. (Ask any of the people being genocide-ed right now about rights). Hell 2020, racist White people thought it was okay to hunt down anyone different like a fucking dog. Remember the Seattle/Portland protests where unmarked officers of the law shoved protesters into unmarked vans? I do. Remember the Charlottesville rioters being called some very nice people? I do. Wanna know why ‘all the kids today are gay’? Because the AIDS epidemic was ignored by Reagan and killed most of the old gays. The queer community has always been here, we just aren’t blatantly killing them.

You have a stable government (not good but stable) right now. The Republican led House has given us a view into the chaos that will ensue if republicans control all branches of government. Due to their dumbfuckery, the US credit rating was lowered by all 3 credit rating companies. We will find out real quick what it’s like to live where your bus fare in the evening is different from the morning because of a volatile dollar.

How did we end up where we are now? It is a labor of love from the Christofacists with the 1st election of Reagan. What did they do? Founded the Heritage foundation that literally wrote Reagan’s political agenda. Founded the federalist society that groomed conservative justices for the federal courts. Since 1980.

Was every republican president their wet dream? No. But conservative justices were placed that have influenced policy since. Trump was their wet dream. He yelled their agenda from the top of the White House. And their voter base loves it. Trump showed exactly how far the christofascists can push their agenda. And it’s pretty fucking far. Trump basically legitimized the hatred the Rush Limbaugh, Ben Shapiro and others spew to be brought into mainstream.

Want to make a difference? Follow the republican playbook because it obviously works. Get an independent think tank to write up policy for liberal politicians. Start getting ballot measures on state elections. Your state primary elections is when you vote for the most progressive candidate. Keep forward momentum. And maybe in 10, 15, 30 years you will have the political climate you want.

Noam Chomsky on "Lesser Evilism"

“There’s another word for lesser evilism. It’s called rationality. Lesser evilism is not an illusion, it’s a rational position. But you don’t stop with lesser evilism. You begin with it, to prevent the worst, and then you go on to deal with the fundamental roots of what’s wrong, even with the lesser evils.” [color emphasis added] —Noam Chomsky | Scheer Intelligence podcast | Jan. 17, 2020

Chomsky further explains why it is a rational decision to vote for the lesser to two evils:

"Even if there’s core, deep problems with the institutions, there still are choices between alternatives, which matter a lot. Small differences in a system with enormous power translate into huge effects. Meanwhile, you don’t stop with a lesser evilism; you continue to try to organize and develop the mass popular movements, which will block the worst and change the institutions. All of these things can go on at once. But the simple question of what button do you push on a particular day? That is a decision, and that matters. It’s not the whole story, by any means. It’s a small part of the story, but it matters.” [color emphasis added] ——Noam Chomsky | Scheer Intelligence podcast | Jan. 17, 2020

We witnessed how "small differences in a system with enormous power translate into huge effects" in the first Trump administration, as evidenced by how Trump's decision to stack the Supreme Court with far-right justices has resulted in Roe v. Wade being overturned, the Voting Rights Act being weakened, and the Bruen decision further weakening the nation's ability to control guns.

And Trump did all that damage just in his first term, when he still had "adults" in his administration willing to rein him in.

Imagine what changes to our nation Trump could make with only sycophants in his administration who want to implement Project 2025, just for starters.

Noam Chomsky's message is important to remember as we approach the 2024 election. If you are on the left and choose to sit out the election or vote for a third party because you view Biden as a "lesser evil," you are wittingly or unwittingly supporting the "greater evil" that is Trump. We learned that the hard way in 2016. Please don't let history repeat itself. Our nation could not survive a Trump dictatorship.

___________ Norm Chomsky image source (before edits & quote); quote source

[whitehotharlots]

Stan culture bears a good amount of blame

You could write a ten-volume set documenting the failures of Democratic leadership over the past four decades. I’ve been paying close attention to them since I’ve been old enough to care about politics and I’m sure I’m aware of only a fraction of the party’s incompetence, hubris, and idiocy. By no means I am suggesting that the angle of this post is definitive; it’s merely worthy of discussion.

Because, really, it’s just so obvious, isn’t it? The (post)-Obama Democratic coalition isn’t a political movement so much as a fandom. And that makes sense. Obama was the most charismatic politician and talented campaigner of my lifetime. The fact that his ideological leanings and style of governance were both broadly unappealing and materially harmful to his voting base simply did not factor in to how the public perceived of him. He’s a cool guy, handsome and quick-witted. An aspirational figure, someone voters can pretend to hang out with or hope they grow up to resemble. It would be folly, we are told, to expect him to do anything for us. We should instead desire to be him, to relish in his success as if it were our own.

Sadly for the party, figures such as Obama come around only once in a very long while. Most who share similar talents either lack his ambition or possess enough moral self-awareness to want nothing to do with politics. And yet... the strategy remained. 

Hillary’s supporters spoke of their preferred candidate in terms reminiscent of a middle school girl arguing over which member of BTS is the cutest: her favorite is obviously the best, and anyone who thinks otherwise is stupid and mean. Asking about Hillary’s platform was an expression of male entitlement. Wondering what her presidency would do to address our increasingly undeniable problems is at best naive, at worst actively racist or even fascist. They were selling a star, not a politician. And they got what they wanted: the least issues-focused campaign in recorded history.

Hillary’s star was not so bright as Obama’s. Nor was it as bright as that of a crudely abusive C-tier reality show host. Maybe if she was going up against the bald dude from Pawn Stars she could have pulled it off. But Trump was network, not basic cable, and she just didn’t have that kind of screen presence.

Yet, still... the strategy remained. Even more inexplicably now, since the party was basically out of anyone who had national-level name recognition. Rather than focus their attention on a primary figure, the party’s acolytes and media apparatus began boosting a constellation of more niche figures. Their tone was no less star-struck or worshipful, but the objects of adoration had less and less broad appeal. 

Chief among these was Ruth Bader Ginsburg. People who previously could not name a single Supreme Court justice suddenly, around 2014, found it hilarious to pretend that this burnt scarecrow of a jurist was secretly a black rapper. Yes, her judicial record was about as horrific as you’d expect. Yes, she called Colin Kapernick’s protest stupid and voted in favor of allowing employers to not pay workers for forced time theft, but those inconsistencies only matter if we’re talking about political figures. RBG was a star.

And, well, you know where this is going. Dems refused, very proudly, to understand politics in political terms. The question of the court was instead one of fandom, celebrity worship, and a bizarrely parasocial identification of themselves with a handful of arbitrarily boosted public figures. Asking Ginsburg to care about the future wellbeing of the people who worshiped her would like expecting Kanye to buy a house for each of his fans. 

That didn’t work out too hot. But, still, I’m sure the strategy will remain, only with even less appealing figures for people to glom on to. The Cuomosexuals might have deleted their old posts, sure, but someone even goonier and emptier is certain to emerge from the rubble of Biden administration and lead this party, happy and singing and doing their repulsive little dances, even further into the depths of hell.

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

TLDR: Biden will almost certainly become president, but Trump has a non-zero chance of stealing it anyway

Trump doesn’t actually think his lawsuits will change the outcome, he’s just stalling for time to appease his base.  He wants them to know that he’s working hard to fight the results, he wants them to see him as an underdog facing insurmountable odds.  If he concedes, he’ll look like an even bigger loser in their eyes than if he never accepts the results; he’s a weak man pretending to be a strong man for a dwindling audience.

The only conceivable way the results could substantially change is if he had the Supreme Court throw out some state results, which, while possible, has never happened before and seems increasingly unlikely as more and more lower courts throw out his suits for lack of evidence.  No voter fraud exists, he doesn’t have a leg to stand on.  This isn’t like 2000 where you could argue Bush may have won (he didn’t, but it was close enough that the argument was valid in court), none of the states are even remotely close enough for a recount to change it, and no illegal or improper activity has been observed in any state, so the Supreme Court has no evidence to go off of to throw out any state results.

But let’s say that they did.  Let’s say that the conservatives have no scruples whatsoever (bear with me, I know that’s a stretch *eyes roll so hard they fall back into my skull*).  Let’s say they decide 5-4 or 6-3 to throw out the results in a few of the states Biden won so that neither he nor Trump receives the 270 votes needed to win.  That would trigger contingent elections in the House and Senate to pick the president and vice president respectively.  The Senate would pick Mike Pence, as they would have a 50-48 majority at the time of the vote on January 6 (the runoff elections in Georgia are on the 5th, but it will take a few days to count and possibly recount the results, so the 2 seats will be vacant on the 6th no matter what).

The House is another thing entirely.  Democrats hold a slim majority, but in a contingent election they don’t vote as 435 individuals, but 50 state blocs, where each state gets one and only one vote.  Every representative will confer with their colleagues and decide who they will collectively vote for, regardless of which candidate won that state.  DC doesn’t get to vote because it’s not a state; sorry, but the constitution hates them.  If the representatives voted as their states did in November, it would be tied 25-25, and the vote would continue for however long it took to break it 26-24.  But, it will almost certainly go straight down party lines, which on January 6th will give us 20 Democratic states, 3 or 4 deadlocked ties, and 26 or 27 Republican states.  Trump will win a contingent election if it comes down to it.

I say 26 or 27 because Iowa is up in the air.  In the contingent, they’ll have 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat, and 1 seat that hasn’t been decided yet.  If that seat goes Democratic, it’ll be tied 2-2, so they’ll send a blank ballot, giving the victory to Trump 26-20-4.  If the seat remains vacant, it’ll be 2-1-1, and if Republicans win it’ll be 3-1; either way, it’ll be a Trump victory 27-20-3.

The only hope for a contingent election would be if Iowa was tied, and Liz Cheney of Wyoming voted against party.  She probably wouldn’t vote for Biden out of principle, but if she abstained and sent in a blank ballot it would stop Trump, 25-20-5.  The 12th Amendment explicitly states that “a majority of all the states shall be necessary,” meaning 26 or more, no pluralities, so 25-20-5 would be deadlocked.  In that case, the vote would continue for as long as Nancy Pelosi felt it needed to; as Speaker of the House, she could either keep holding the votes every day until January 20th, or she could stop the vote as soon as it deadlocks and leave the presidency vacant.

Either way, if the Senate picks Mike Pence, he’ll become acting president on January 20th; he’ll be sworn in as vice president, but there will be no president, but he doesn’t become president outright, only acting president, because the 20th Amendment say that the vice president shall act as president until the House picks a president.  He would be president in all but name, and he’d probably go to the Supreme Court to make it official (which would be hard because the text of the 12th and 20th Amendments don’t leave a lot of wiggle room open).  The most likely scenario is Pence would try to nominate Trump as his vice president, then resign the acting-presidency so Trump could reassume office as president, but this is unlikely to work because filling a vacant vice presidency requires a majority vote from both the House and Senate, which he would never get from Pelosi.  If the Senate was tied 50-50 after the Georgia runoffs, he wouldn’t even get that from McConnell (and because he’d no longer be vice president, Pence couldn’t break the 50-50 tie himself).  It would be one big constitutional gray area, with Pence being the acting-president and possibly the vice president simultaneously.  I have no clue how the Supreme Court would even approach this mess besides to just say the 20th Amendment makes him president outright instead of just acting-president, which would violate the exact written text, which isn’t the conservatives’ modus operandi.  They usually take the exact wording as gospel.

The most likely scenario in all of this is that Trump’s lawsuits all fail and the Supreme Court doesn’t step in to give him the win because that would spark civil unrest that would make the George Floyd protests look like child’s play.  Look at the anti-government protests in the wake of stolen elections in other countries, and then give all of those people access to guns, and you’d have a literal civil war on your hands which not even Uncle Clarence and Stepford Wife Amy would want to attach their names to.  Biden will almost certainly be sworn in on January 20th, it’s just a matter of what Trump does when he realizes he’s a lame duck.

He’ll never accept the results.  He’ll never admit defeat.  He’ll go down fighting, appeasing his base with calls of fraud and illegal votes and stolen states until January 6th when Congress counts and certifies the results, which would be the final nail in the coffin.  January 6th, Mike Pence, as president of the Senate, has to say he and Trump lost in front of the entire country, no way around it.  He is legally obligated to admit it as part of the process, though even that could be slogged down by Republicans refusing to let Biden win easy.  When Congress counts the electoral votes, any member can refute the results so long as they have a member from the other house join them (one Rep, one Senator).  This happened in 2004 when Democrats objected to the results in Ohio because of some Republican fuckery; the joint session adjourned for a few hours to vote on it, and both the House and Senate agreed to ignore the objection and certify the results anyway.  Now imagine if the Republicans objected to EVERY state, one at a time; the results take about an hour to count with no objections because there’s a lot of pomp and circumstance, a big official spiel that everyone has to go through.

Pence: Madam Speaker, members of Congress, pursuant to the constitution and laws of the United States, the Senate and the House of Representatives are meeting in joint session to verify the certificates and count the votes of the electors of the several states for President and Vice President of the United States.  Without objection, the tellers will dispense with reading formal portions of the certificates. After ascertaining that certificates are regular in form and authentic, the tellers will announce the votes cast by the electors for each state, beginning with Alabama.

Teller 1: Mr. President, the certificate of the electoral vote of the state of Alabama seems to be regular in form and authentic, and it appears there from that Donald Trump of the state of Florida received nine votes for president, and Michael Pence of the state of Indiana received nine votes for Vice President.

Teller 2: Mr. President, the certificate of the electoral vote of the state of Alaska seems to be regular in form and authentic as it appears therefrom, that Donald Trump of the state of Florida received three votes for President, and Michael Pence of the state of Indiana received three votes for Vice President.

Teller 3: Mr. President, the certificate of the electoral vote of the state of Arizona seems to be regular in form and authentic...

And so on and so forth, for all 50 states and DC.  Between each state, if a representative stands up, they can object, causing the entire session to grind to a halt.  If Republicans are dedicated to wasting time and running out the clock, they could object to all 51 counts, possibly multiple objections per state, if they object for different reasons.  This would drag out the process for DAYS, making the old filibuster look like break at the water cooler, just a short chat between work and more work.  If it took an hour per objection, and that’s being optimistic, it would take over two days to get through the entire count; if it took  2 or 3 hours each, it could take close to a full week.  It would be a test of endurance, the shitshow to end all shitshows, something they would make documentaries and movies and SNL parodies about for centuries to come!

I imagine there would be only a handful of objections from diehard Trump stooges, only delaying the inevitable for a few hours, at which point the results would become official by the afternoon of the 6th.  At that point, Biden would become the official president-elect, not the alleged or apparent, but the legal real deal actual president-elect, at which point the law entitles him to transition funds and office space; right now the Republicans can deny him those benefits because they can argue that the results aren’t official, they have plausible deniability under a legalese loophole in the constitution, but after the count their entire argument evaporates and Trump’s administration would legally have to start working with Biden’s team.  If they didn’t, it would go to the Supreme Court, which would almost certainly decide in Biden’s favor because the law is explicit, and they won’t want a Democratic president to hold the office hostage in the future (which, let’s face it, they never would; Democrats are spineless cowards, they’d never try to obstruct like Republicans do, in large part because the media would hold them accountable and shame them into complying with the law).

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

June 21, 2021

Heather Cox Richardson

Lawmakers today are jockeying before tomorrow’s test vote in the Senate on S1, the For the People Act. This is a sweeping bill that protects the right to vote, ends partisan gerrymandering, limits the influence of money in politics, and establishes new ethics rules for presidents and other federal officeholders.

Passing election reform is a priority for Democrats, since Republican-dominated legislatures across the country have gerrymandered states to make it almost impossible for Democrats to win majorities and, since President Biden took office, have passed laws suppressing the vote and making it easier for Republican state officials to swing elections to their candidates no matter what voters want.

But it is not just Democrats who want our elections to be cleaner and fairer. S1 is so popular across the nation—among voters of both parties—that Republican operatives agreed in January that there was no point in trying to shift public opinion on it. Instead, they said, they would just kill it in Congress. This conversation, explored in The New Yorker by Jane Mayer, happened just after it became clear that Democrats had won a Senate majority and thus Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who had previously been Senate Majority Leader, would no longer be able to stop any legislation Republicans didn’t like.

Still, Republican senators can deploy the filibuster, which permits just 41 of the 50 Republican senators to stop the act from passing. It is possible for the Democrats to break a filibuster, but only if they are all willing. Until recently, it seemed they were not. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), a conservative Democrat in a Republican-dominated state, opposed some of the provisions in S1 and was adamant that he would not vote for an election reform bill on partisan lines. He wanted bipartisan support.

Last week, Manchin indicated which of the measures in the For the People Act—and in the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act—he will support. In a mixture of the priorities of the leadership of each party, he called for expanding access to voting, an end to partisan gerrymandering, voter ID, automatic registration at motor vehicle offices, making Election Day a holiday, and making it easier for state officials to purge voters from the rolls.

Democrats across the ideological spectrum immediately lined up behind Manchin’s compromise. Republican leadership immediately opposed it, across the board. They know that fair voting practices will wreck them. Today, McConnell used martial language when he said he would give the measure “no quarter.”

Tomorrow, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will bring up for a vote not the measure itself, but whether to begin a debate on such a measure. “Tomorrow, the Senate will also take a crucial vote on whether to start debate on major voting rights legislation,” Schumer said today. “I want to say that again—tomorrow the Senate will take a vote on whether to start debate on legislation to protect Americans’ voting rights. It’s not a vote on any particular policy.”

Republicans can use the filibuster to stop a debate from going forward. Getting a debate underway will require 60 votes, and there is currently no reason to think any Republicans will agree. This will put them in the untenable spot of voting against talking about voting rights, even while Republicans at the state level are passing legislation restricting voting rights. So the vote to start a debate on the bill will fail but will highlight the hypocrisy of Republican lawmakers.

Perhaps more to the point in terms of passing legislation, it will test whether the work the Democrats did over the weekend incorporating Manchin’s requests to the measure have brought him on board.

If so, and if he gets frustrated with Republican refusal to compromise at all while the Democrats immediately accepted his watering down of their bill, it is possible he and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), who has also signaled support for the filibuster in its current form, will be willing to consider altering it. The Senate could, for example, turn it back into its traditional form—a talking filibuster—or carve out voting rights bills as they have carved out financial bills and judicial nominations.

There are signs that the Democrats are preparing for an epic battle over this bill. Today White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki indicated that the administration hopes the vote will show that all 50 Senate Democrats are now on board and that they will find a new way forward if the Republicans do not permit a debate.

More telling, perhaps, is an eye-popping op-ed published yesterday in the Wall Street Journal by Mike Solon, a former assistant to McConnell, and Bill Greene, a former outreach director for former House Speaker John Boehner; both men are now lobbyists. In order to defend the filibuster, they argue that the measure protects “political nobodies” from having to pay attention to politics. If legislation could pass by a simple majority, Americans would have to get involved. The system, they suggest, is best managed by a minority of senators.

“Eliminating the Senate filibuster would end the freedom of America’s political innocents,” they write. “The lives that political nobodies spend playing, praying, fishing, tailgating, reading, hunting, gardening, studying and caring for their children would be spent rallying, canvassing, picketing, lobbying, protesting, texting, posting, parading and, above all, shouting.”

The authors suggest misleadingly that the men who framed the Constitution instituted the filibuster: they did not. They set up a Senate in which a simple majority passed legislation. The filibuster, used to require 60 votes to pass any legislation, has been deployed regularly only since about 2008.

But that error is minor compared to the astonishing similarity between this op-ed and a speech by South Carolina Senator James Henry Hammond in 1858, when he rose to explain to his colleagues that the American system was set up to make sure lawmakers could retain control no matter what a majority of Americans wanted. Hammond was one of the nation’s leading enslavers and was desperate to make sure his party’s policies could not be overridden by the majority.

Voting only enabled people to change the party in charge, he said. “It was not for the people to exercise political power in detail… it was not for them to be annoyed with the cares of government.”

Hammond explained that the world is made up of two classes: those who ”do the menial duties… perform the drudgery of life. That is, a class requiring but a low order of intellect and but little skill….. It constitutes the very mud-sill of society and of political government.” On them, he explained, rests “that other class which leads progress, civilization, and refinement.”

It was imperative, he said, to retain these distinctions in politics. The South had managed such a thing, while the North, he warned, had not. “Our slaves do not vote. We give them no political power. Yours do vote, and, being the majority, they are the depositaries [sic] of all your political power. If they knew the tremendous secret, that the ballot-box is stronger than ‘an army with banners,’... where would you be? Your society would be reconstructed, your government overthrown, your property, divided, not… with arms in their hands, but by the quiet process of the ballot-box.”

—-

Notes:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/inside-the-koch-backed-effort-to-block-the-largest-election-reform-bill-in-half-a-century

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/manchin-proposes-compromise-voting-bills-n1271058

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/schumer-republican-debate-voting-bill-for-the-people

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-joe-biden-senate-elections-bills-election-2020-1a9b201f9234e2050496768be995ea2f

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-filibuster-helps-nobody-and-that-means-you-11624226249

James Henry Hammond, “Speech on the Admission of Kansas…,” in Selections from the Letters and Speeches of James H. Hammond (New York: John F. Trow & Co., 1866), 301-322, available at Google Books (for free).

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[reasonandempathy]

Traveling, so not going through it line by line, or chunk by chunk, as I might.

1. This hostage deal is, substantively, worse for Israel than the deals offered by Hamas and other intermediaries in October, November, January, or most recently in March. The supposition that "hamas finally agreed to a ceasefire" is flatly incorrect. The entire plan seems to have been taking hostages to try and push Israel to not invade Gaza. They've been basically throwing them at Israel's feet since October 9th to enact a permanent ceasefire. This agreement that you're claiming as some new "explosion" had been om the table, one way or another, since October. The main difference is that the US changed its tune on this one, indicating something changed in Biden's behavior.

2. I don't know what you think applying political pressure on politicians looks like. Because this is exactly what it looks like when you force a politician to adopt new positions. It's incredibly rare for a politician to publicly say "you got me," and it seems weird that you're hinging the cause of a historic shift in US foreign policyonly on the word of one person.

2b. Especially in the context of an election year with significantly outcry from that politician's base of support where the politician has been significantly opposed to doing what the protesters have wanted him to do to this point. Literally last week he came out condemning the college protests and this week he's adopting one of their calls for action.

3. At no point did I ever say this was solely about the college protests either. I don't know if you're intentionally limiting it to just the college protests, but I explicitly called out the internal Israeli protests and other activists in the OP.

The muslim leaders who refused to meet with Biden, the families of Israeli hostages, the US politicians who have been decrying Israel's actions for half a year now. The people who have been at every Biden and Democrat campaign stop since October shouting at him about Palestine.

People who have been getting assaulted, arrested, and more. The over 300+ jewish people arrested for having Seder outside of Chuck Schumer's home in protest of US support for Netanyahu.

4. How are you going to sit here and say months of protesting, including the Uncommitted Campaign in the Democratic Primary, has had 0 impact on policy when you've explicitly brought up "voting 3rd party" as a thing people should do? Do you thi k the only effective protest is the one that will hand the country a 2nd Trump term?

Hey, what happening in the news today?

Oh, cool. Biden's well-projected Red Line might actually be maintained in the face of Israel's ridiculous actions and Israel's refusal to accept a ceasefire in exchange for the release of every hostage. This abandonment of the hostages is widely-known and widely-protested even within Israel, and without that it just leaves "we want to bomb Rafah into the dirt, and everyone knows this won't destroy Hamas."

I wonder how the fascists, zionists, and genocidal fuck-nuggets in Israel are taking this.

I don't know.

Maybe saying Joe Biden is a fucking Hamas Ally is the most god-damn deranged and disconnected from reality piece of shit take since October 6th.

Maybe Zionists now openly calling for Trump to come back into office in English (whereas until now it was only in Hebrew) will show people that these aren't your fucking allies if you don't want a fascist government in the US.

Biden should have done this months ago. But he's at least doing it now.

Thank your local activists. Thank your college protesters. Thank the people risking their health, safety, and careers to cry out and try to make change in the world and try to stop the slaughter in Gaza.

They deserve an apology from every sneering fuck who said "they're not going to affect anything" and "they're throwing their lives and careers away for nothing" (fuck you Saagar Enjeti you elitist anti-populist fucknugget).

There is zero question, at all, who to vote for in November.

[mars-the-4th-planet]

Final election prediction map:

Explanation time. Going from left to right.

Nevada: this state is known for overestimating republican support in the polls. Even republican-biased pollsters like Trafalgar(R) think Biden is going to win here. Regular polls tend to give Biden about a six point lead. So I think 4-8% is the most likely margin for this state.

Arizona: A very close state. It voted for Trump last time by a margin of three percent, and Biden generally leads in the polls here from 2% or 4% depending on which polling group most recently posted. Discounting obviously biased polls like Trafalgar, CNN, and Rasmussen, it is most likely that Biden will narrowly win Arizona. FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics agree on this and so do I.

Alaska and Montana: States that would normally be more decisively red but aren't this time around. Still, trump is leading in these two by enough that it won't matter. Just something to keep in mind, that Biden has moved republican states more towards the democrats.

Colorado: Used to be a swing state, but now is about at the same level of closeness as in Montana. RealClearPolitics says Biden is leading by ten percent, FiveThirtyEight says by fourteen percent, predicting that they will vote within a 7-11% range is a modest estimate not Democrat bias. Not only that but like Nevada and Texas, it voted more blue than expected in 2016.

New Mexico: Republicans have been trying to get this state but it's just not happening. They have a 15% poll lead for Biden on my most recent map. Even if the polls are off some, in Trump's favor, Biden still wins by double digits.

Nebraska: Both the main state and the first district are going to Trump, no real question there. But the second district has held some polls and they all lean towards Joe Biden winning. It's just one extra electoral vote though.

Texas: A state that has been all over the place lately with large amounts of early voting (which favors dems) and a court that denied throwing out a hundred thousand ballots. It's not out of reach that democrats could win Texas, but if I'm being wholly honest with myself, what I want to happen is not necessarily what will happen. The polls do lean in Trump's favor. And Republican support is still large in Texas. Worst of all, there is only one early voting drop off box per county in Texas. I think it's going to the reds this time around, although at a narrower margin than 2016.

Minnesota: This one I can't be too sure about to be honest. On one hand, the police brutality there and protests (mainly the government's response to the protests) will likely mean more dem turnout. But at the same time, people protesting racism and the authoritarian gov? Also means more Republican turnout for Trump. But Republicans already turn out to vote regularly, so it's not so much that they can expand from here and more than they can try and use the protests as a means to convince people to not vote got Biden. Still, Biden's campaign has generally brought in more support to the democrats than Hillary's across the nation and Minnesota went to her last time. And 4-8% does match up pretty well with polling data which ranges around a 6% to 7% lead for Biden.

Iowa: Sometimes leans Biden, other times it leans Trump, but in general it's a pretty close state. But Trump had a 9% margin of victory in 2016 and I think that is going to be very hard to overcome. Of course Biden has moved the country towards the democrats, but probably not by the ten percent margin it would take to win Iowa. It just has a lot of conservative support, and unless something is drastically off in my analysis, Trump is going to win Iowa by a few percentage points.

Missouri: Like a couple other states already mentioned, it's strange that it isn't automatically safe. RealClearPolitics even considered Missouri a toss up state at one point. Based on the polling data involving this state and how it's voted previously, I think it's going to Republicans by a margin of 6-10%.

Wisconsin: Oh boy. The one state who's polling data was well outside the margin of error in 2016. It was seven percent off. And current polls for the state range from a slight one or two point win for trump to a seventeen point landslide for Biden. It's a bit absurd how hard this state is to predict. But, I think it is landing on the Biden side of the aisle and will vote Democrat by about the same amount as Iowa votes Republican. Biden is more liked there than Hillary Clinton, and that is true for the whole Midwest. Not only that but most Midwestern states including Wisconsin voted more democratic in the 2018 midterms. Less biased polls put Biden at a six percent lead in Wisconsin. Which is roughly the same as Clinton's state. In most states Biden is doing better than Clinton was, but I suppose some really biased towards dems polls came out for Clinton in Wisconsin right before the election as it's the only logical explanation. Several polls also have shown Biden winning in double digits in Wisconsin, hopefully these are the ones that are exaggerating democratic support and not the more average polls. Assuming the more biased polls are the ones that could be seven points off in Republicans favor, Biden wins by a few percent.

Michigan: Without Trafalgar(R) and Rasmussen, Michigan looks as decisive for Biden as South Carolina is for Trump. It's polling average on RCP had Biden nine points up. In a state that just barely went to Trump in 2016. Michigan is almost certainly going to Biden if everyone who prefers Biden actually turns out to vote for him. Many polls show Biden up in double digits there. Trump has personally hurt his reputation in Michigan. Largely due to personally refusing them covid aid while the state run by democrats was handling the pandemic better than any other state according to a covid response study. Which is bound to increase their approval of democrats and decrease it of Trump. His supporters even tried to kidnap the governor to do god knows what to her, and Biden won Michigan in the primaries over Sanders, who beat Clinton there in the 2016 primaries. It's very likely that Biden will see a win in Michigan, and by fairly strong margins assuming all the votes get counted in time. Whether you look at the polls, how they voted in the midterms, the margin at which Trump won in 2016, other factors that could effect the vote, Biden is set to win the state of Michigan. A voting margin of 4-8% is a rather modest prediction all things considered. Even some conservative biased polls have shown Biden winning by a percent or two. Polling groups like Trafalgar(R) voted about two points to the right of the final results in the rust belt states.

Indiana: Not a whole lot to say here. Much like Missouri and Montana, it's closer than it should be and that's a bad sign for Republicans in neighboring swing states.

Ohio: This state has voted 8 points in favor of the Republicans in 2016, and the polls have gone back and forth between the candidates recently. But they are very close. I think Trump will take the state by at least one point though. And no more than five. Going to be as close as Iowa at least, maybe a little closer, but Biden will be hard pressed to flip the state completely.

Virginia: Polling shows Biden possibly leading in double digits and Clinton won fairly decisively here. Even the most narrow recent Virginia polls show Biden eight points ahead. It's barely competitive, luckily for Biden.

North Carolina: Like Arizona, this state is a hard call because of how close it is. I wouldnt be surprised if either won. But Biden does have the overall edge and is more likely to take the state by a close margin.

South Carolina: Usually a solid red state. But this time around, it got fairly close in the polls. Closer than some traditional blue leaning swing states. Still almost definitely going to Trump, but, it did vote in a new Democrat in 2018 and if this momentum keeps up who knows, South Carolina could end up more like Iowa. A red leaning swing state. Probably not tomorrow though. It's going to have a pretty solid margin of victory for Trump.

Georgia: Very similar story as Texas but a little more towards dems. Biden does narrowly lead in the polls, but republican support in this state is historically usually strong and racial voter surpression could unfortunately have an effect by a percent or two. It's certainly possible for Democrats to win here, but it's probably not going to happen this election. Trump will likely have a pretty close lead of two to six percent. Like Texas, it's sort of a "What if dems get a landslide" scenario. It would certainly be closer if there wasn't so much concern about voter surpression and gerrymandered voting districts. I would say Biden has about as much chance of winning in Georgia as Trump does of winning Pennsylvania.

Florida: It is very close in every election. The best and least biased polls put it at a Biden win though. A narrow one, but with strong turnout it's more likely dems take this state. If GOP does take Florida it will be by a hair margin. Less than one percent. But I think it will land on Biden's side of the aisle due to factors such as the Coronavirus mainly effecting the elderly the worst and Florida being an older state, Florida voting more blue in 2018 like several other states, and the only polls showing Trump winning there are the ones with biased weights and faulty methods of polling. Biden is also a favorite in Florida, as they elected him decisively during the primary. And he was on the twice winning Obama/Biden ticket.

Pennsylvania: Like Wisconsin, I estimated a 2-6% margin of victory and this state has been fairly consistently showing a five point lead for Biden in the FiveThirtyEight model. It has overall moved to the left since 2016 and the administration there has been fighting Trump's attempts of rigging its vote count. I think this state is going to Biden, RealClearPolitics thinks this state is going to Biden, FiveThirtyEight thinks this state is going to Biden, but it all relies on Pennsylvanians actually going out and making those poll averages come true. But unlike last time, they actually know Trump can win and won't just assume it's over simply because of the polls. Even Rasmussen, a conservative biased polling group republicans love to tout, shows Biden winning by three percent. It's going to be pretty close though, so it comes down to the turnout.

New Hampshire: You're probably tired of having me say things are going to be close. Well, New Hampshire was close last time but I don't think it will be this time. The polls for this state are quite decisive (11% lead for Biden on average!) and Clinton did win last time in this state although narrowly. Estimating it to be a 5-9% margin of victory for Biden is not unreasonable, even though Biden didn't do well in the New Hampshire primary, he is bound to win this small swing state by a similar margin as Trump will win South Carolina, which is not known to be a swing state.

Maine: Biden is bound to get at least 3/4 of the electoral votes here, but I think it's likely that his campaign has won back enough support here that he can get all four. A recent poll by an A+ rated pollster puts him three points ahead in the remaining district. But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump picks up one district. One electoral point likely won't matter to the overall election though.

National:

Biden has been consistently leading over trump since before the primary voting started. His national lead on trump is the main factor why he won the primary in the first place. Biden will get the popular vote, as the popular vote was barely off in the 2016 polls and this time around Biden consistently has at least double, sometimes TRIPLE, the poll lead Clinton had by the day before the election. The lowest I've seen it was four points ahead of Trump. The highest was ten points ahead. He will most likely get around a seven point lead in the popular vote, which indirectly increases his likelihood of winning the electoral college as well. Even though winning one does not necessarily mean winning the other, it is VERY unlikely that someone could get a seven percent popular vote lead and not win the election. Remember, Clinton had less than a three percent popular vote lead and trump only won key states she was expected to win by a sliver.

Third parties probably won't make a whole lot of difference. In 2016, it was a big year for them although it may not look like it. Lots of people assumed Clinton would win, and it made it easy to justify using one's vote on a third party candidate. Nowadays people can see how close it will be and how it is anyone's game, and some will choose to vote either Trump or Biden instead of their preferred candidate like in 2016. Third party polling is not looking good. And it always tightens up on election day. If any do split the vote enough, it's probably not something that said party not running would help anyway. If you're voting green party still, you're probably not willing to vote for Biden even IF the greens didn't run in your state. And if you're voting Libertarian, you're probably not going to vote for Trump even IF Libertarians didn't run in your state.

In conclusion, I think Biden will win both in terms of having the most actual votes, and in terms of having the most electoral votes which are the real deciding factor. But the election could still be contested by the Supreme Court if it's close enough which it likely could be. And the vote count could be stopped prematurely to erase tens of thousands of dem-majority mail-in ballots.

What constitutes a correct prediction?

I will consider it correct if all of these are true:

1: Biden wins overall

2: I get at least 95% of the state colors correct

3: I get at least 90% of the state margins correct

4: I'm right about Biden's popular vote lead within a margin of a percent in one direction or another.

This prediction also assumes that all of the legitimate votes cast are counted. We may not see the end result until a couple of days after election day. If the election is halted with tens of thousands of mail-in votes unaccounted for, I will consider it inconclusive.

[arcticdementor]

Recently, a lot of you who told me I was insane when I said that Winnie the flu was all theater and though it existed and was a flu and would probably take “severe flu, no vaccine numbers” it was and is stupid to lock the sick and the healthy in, destroy the economy and make everyone wear a mask, have come back and ask how I knew. And apologized.

Well, attention in the isles, my friends on the right: you are falling for the same king of bullshit diversion. You are being spun like a top. And you’re falling for it and falling in line.

I blame you and I don’t. You didn’t grow up with the constant-pretend-reality of communist psi-ops, and you haven’t learned to smell it.

Over and over again, you condemn Trump and the “rioters.”

NO ONE RIOTED. Not compared to this summer. THERE WERE NO RIOTS. And the protesters were treated with an iron fist and live ammo, btw.

There are videos. I don’t know which ones are still live. They keep removing them. There was no riot. There was a protest. You know, those things that are vital for public health?

Did they go into the Capitol? Yes they did. You know what? It’s a public building. WE PAY FOR THE F*CKING CAPITOL’S UPKEEP.

But, but but…. the congress critters ran. They were scared!

Were they now? WHY? No, seriously, why were they scared, if the people they work for want to watch the deliberations. They’re in our presence all the time. You know the worst thing we do — or used to do — we called them traitors. That was it.

But they vandalized Nancy Pelosi’s office! Oh, my stars and garters? Evil people. Was that before or after she vandalized our constitution and sank a knife in the heart of the republic? Is the evil bitch dangling from a lamppost this morning? No? They were civilized beyond all hope.

But Sarah, you’ll say, this will give them the excuse to avenge themselves on us.

Dear idiots, you’re like the wife with her arm in a sling and both eyes blackened telling her husband “Please don’t say anything to Joe. He’ll be mad.”

In other words, are you out of your ever loving little minds? These people STOLE two elections — it’s now absolutely obvious the nominal right is fine with this. They hope for crumbs from their masters’ tables. The left is more likely to kill them, but never mind — in a row, in full view, and refused to let us have our day in court to show the evidence. Because the American people are now peons with NO STANDING and can be disenfranchised with no punishment. But you’re afraid that largely (truly) peaceful protesters “made them mad?”

Withdrawing the objection to the fraudulent votes due to the riot? That only makes sense in the mind of an abuser. “I stole your thing, and I was going to maybe give it back, but you cried, so now you don’t get it back.” Are you all actually out of your ever loving minds to blame the protesters and Trump for this?

These people are saying “You peasants dared to show up in our presence. We’re now going to take away even the illusion of franchise.” And…. you’re cool with this? It’s the protesters fault?

Get up off the floor. Wipe the blood from your lip. KNOW WHO YOUR ABUSER IS.

And BTW it’s not Trump. Trump thought maybe if congress saw how ad people were, they would play straight. I said before that’s all the protest was about, and that’s all it was. He told people to go home when it was obvious it had failed.

And I hope to G-d someone with access to him reads this and tells him it’s time. Take the family NOW and go to an undisclosed location. As much as it hurts me to say this, because I want him to continue harassing the left, he has to realize this is no longer the sweet land of liberty. This is now a tyrannical third world shithole. Or will be within months from the way our occupiers are behaving. They will find a way to kill him and his whole family, or kill him and turn his family against him. Go Mr. President. G-d bless. You’ve done all that you could. If the so called right in this country will pearl clutch and blame even people who engage in a very mild protest, they deserve what’s to come.

He now promises an orderly transition. I will tell all of you that DEAD is the most orderly of all states. And right now the Republic is effectively dead. There might be a hope for CPR, but I’m not sure there’s the will to apply it. Pence has joined the rats fleeing to the lefty rotten ship. because he hopes that will save his life. Spoiler, it won’t. The left will kill all the right who turns their coat. Because they can’t trust them. Good. They deserve it. I shall eat popcorn.

Do we ever get the republic back? I don’t know. I think the most likely thing is that we fall apart into separate states while around us the world falls into chaos, famine and misery. We’ve been feeding the world for a century. The world had better look to itself now.

What do those of us who’ve sworn an oath to the constitution do? I don’t know. Most are still busily doing a Peter in Pontius Pilates Yard “I was never with him.”

Oh, and there’s talks of rounding up Trump supporters. Of denying them flights and hotels and the ability to engage in commerce.

I suppose that’s the “protesters” fault too? Except that that, like the paper to withdraw objections because of the “protest” were already written. They would have found an excuse.

I don’t want war. But I liked having a homeland. To everyone who, like me, came here as the last place of refuge: I’m sorry. I don’t even know what to tell you. We need to fight this, but even if we do, unless the natural-born citizens see what they’re losing, it’s unlikely we’ll ever get our country back.

This morning, in DC, the police are beating down what remains of protesters. A young woman was murdered in cold blood yesterday.

And our side is pearl clutching and tut tuting, and hoping the abuser won’t get mad. Oh, and talking about 2022, because seeing two elections frauded RIGHT BEFORE THEIR EYES and courts refusing to let anyone see evidence of it is not enough. They need to be stomped on some more before they believe they’ve lost the franchise.

Me? I’ve seen what happens when your votes don’t matter. Elections will continue as a form, possibly for fifty years, if we let this bullshit go on that long. Your next president after Commie laWhorish is Michelle Obama, because the ignorant bitch hasn’t shit on us enough. She felt stupid and inferior at Harvard, and by gum, she’s going to make you grovel to pay for your sins.

But your real masters are now Winnie the Pooh and his merry band of fascists. And we know what they do and how.

I can’t get the order, but we’re about to see: social credit; the banning of conservatives from the internet; branding us as terrorists, just as they’re doing to innocent protesters; show trials; people disappearing; our money confiscated; our houses confiscated; more lock downs, to prevent revolt; more masks to promote alienation; more lies.

When people die in the famine to come, it will be Covid-19 and Trump’s fault and you’ll be required to repeat it publicly.

It wont’ last. These commies are industrial-level STUPID. It won’t last. I give them ten years, maybe, before most of the country is starving, and they have no clue what to do about it. And then it all falls apart, because unlike Venezuelans, we have no one to help and no place to run to.

Or, you know, we can stop pearl clutching and say “Hell no.” and “Molon labe” and stop repeating the lies the left wants written into history.

To lefty idiots: yes, the election was stolen. Because if it had NOT been, the left would have joined the right in demanding the courts take the case, and that it be shown to all as an honest election. Also, to lefty idiots, what the protesters — and all of us at home — want? ANOTHER ELECTION with minimum accountability. I mean, we can’t even clean the roles. There wouldn’t be enough time. We just wanted to make sure each person voted only once, and the votes were counted with full supervision.

Instead, you’re handing off the country to China, via their bought and paid for man, Biden. Yes, I know you heard good things about China. You’ll find out, along with the craven right that the leftist press makes Pravda seem honest. Enjoy the ride.

As for you and me, my friends. We’re going to eat the bread that the devil baked. Save what you can from the ruin. It won’t be much. And don’t let them into your head. NEVER let them into your head. They’re invaders. They’re oppressors. They’re thieves. Treat them as what they are. Do not comply unless you have to, and then engage in malicious compliance.

Keep the republic in your heart. Maybe there are enough of us left that it will rise again. But in the meantime, this is going to hurt and hurt badly. And the longer the restoration of law takes, the higher the butcher’s bill.

Most of you have no idea how bad it will get. Imagine your worst nightmares. Then double them. Prepare for that as best you can. You won’t be able to do much. If you’re lucky they’ll leave you your conscience.

Your country was invaded (even if the invaders were born here, their masters aren’t) and is about to be raped. The least you can do is not cooperate.

[stellalux-universe]

Look, I’m going to level with all of my progressive Democrats here. Do I like Joe Biden? Eh. He wasn’t my choice for a nominee and I definitely did not want the next president to be just another old, rich, white man. Do I even like Kamala Harris? Complicated. I love her image, I love the idea of a woman, particularly a woman of color, finally making it to the office of vice president, one step closer, but I have issue with her history as attorney general of California. To be clear, I view Biden to be the exact definition of a “career politician” and I am under no assumption or delusion that voting him into office will even come close to solving our problems or even advancing a progressive agenda.

What I do view him as, is a step in the right direction, a necessary and vital step, to get us away from the increasing and worrying instability that has been exacerbated by Trump. Last election, far too many progressives either didn’t vote or protest voted because they refused to see the truth and the threat that Trump posed and now our country will have to contend with a 6-3 conservative leaning in the highest court in the country that will last for generations.

Because make no mistake. The Republicans are going to fill this vacancy. It’s going to happen and just as in the impeachment proceedings, Democrats who are holding out hope that a small handful of Republicans will vote with their conscience instead of along party lines, are just deluding themselves. The Supreme Court is the Republican holy grail, because they know it is the best way to advance their agenda and are willing to use whatever power political move they have to make to ensure it’s in their favor.

The only thing that a politician will respond to more than money, is the vote. If they do this and then are immediately met with a swift referendum come election day, not just in the presidency but in the Senate and I can not stress how important they both are, perhaps it will be a wake up call but that means that every eligible Democrat, Independent, and never Trumper has to go out and vote en mass. And NOT FOR A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE YOU ASSHOLES.

If you want to address income inequality in a meaningful way to actually bring about change, or criminal justice reform, or racial inequality, or women’s rights, or LGBTQ+ rights, or education reform including student loan debt, or climate change, or health care, then we have to do what needs to be done which is VOTE JOE BIDEN AND THEN STAY ON HIS ASS AND PUSH FOR THE CHANGE THAT IS DUE INSTEAD OF DISAPPEARING THE MOMENT THE ELECTION IS OVER.

We have got to take back our political power after decades of being silenced, whether by voter suppression tactics against communities of the poor or color, or by the money pouring in by the super rich and corporations that control members of both parties. We forgot that we control whether or not these fuckers have a job, so we HAVE TO VOTE, and not just for general elections, in EVERY ELECTION AT THE FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL LEVELS. It is not enough anymore to just come out to vote every two or four years for Congress or the presidency. Because civics is no longer taught in a majority of American schools, look into your state and city and county laws to see what positions are actually elected positions AND MAKE SURE YOU VOTE. Vote for Governor, vote for Attorney General of your state if you can, vote for mayors, vote for sheriffs and school board members. Keep these assholes’ feet to the coals and call into their offices to make sure that your communities’ needs are being heard. Don’t depend on them to just do it because they won’t, don’t depend on someone else to show up at the town hall meeting and hopefully make the point you want to make. Do everything this democracy allows us to do to fight for the human rights that they claim we need to “be patient” for.

Happy FUCKING National Registration Day, go make sure you’re registered, and VOTE.  

[quakerjoe]

Biden, #MeToo, and why I can’t support him.

Anyone who supports Biden, by my reckoning, is fine with putting their name to yet another sexual predator in the White House

Where’s the outrage, people? All you #MeToo supporters out there are fantastically quiet about the accusation leveled against Biden. Where are all of you who were appalled at the recording of trump bragging how the rich and powerful can just walk up and grab a woman by the pussy? That’s what Biden actually DID (allegedly). If you’re fine with Biden, hand in your #MeToo card and strike the word ‘feminist’ or ‘humanist’ from your personal bios. 

If you don’t know a woman who’s a survivor, then you don’t know women. That means that none of them have trusted you enough to tell you their stories. I’ve heard many. Once upon a time, I was in a relationship with one and I heard her horror story. She felt that her freaking out when we tried to get intimate with me was unfair so she left. Then she killed herself.

Is Biden REALLY better than trump? Really? Really? Of trump, whom I loathe more than anyone else on Earth, I can say, with all honesty, this much: I KNOW where I stand with him and his band of fuckwits. ALL of his fuckery has been mostly done out in the open. While everyone’s freaking out over it, they’re all huddling behind Biden; many out of such sheer desperation to remove trump that they’ve literally allowed the Democratic party to compromise them and their morals and core beliefs. IF you’re supporting Biden, you’re not compromising, YOU’VE BEEN COMPROMISED. You ALLOWED the Democratic party to lower their own standards SO low they’re practically as filthy as the GOP only there’s one sad, horrible difference between them and just one- While the GOP is openly vile, reprehensible, and are more than willing to fuck you all to your face; fuck you and fuck yours and go fuck yourself... Democrats smile, say nice things, then stab you in the back. Democrats now only pay lip service, make half-baked and half ass attempts to try to convince you that they’re Left in some way, all while being far right of where they were years ago. There IS no Left anymore, and you’ve been dragged along with them. When is enough, enough, people?

There’s clearly only ONE person the Democrats hated more than trump- Bernie Sanders. Between mainstream media ignoring him and Dems ganging up to defeat him, clearly the party doesn’t give a flying fuck about YOU. They’re just not into you, baby; it’d interrupt the cash flow from their donors, most of them being the same rich twats buying GOPers. Look how fast Bloomberg bought Dems!

Now you’re all acting like trump supporters for the BlueMAGA. Seriously? Really? The rapist? The guy whose motto is essentially “Don’t worry, I won’t change shit; I’ll just bring us back to normal (meaning back to the era that brought us trump in the fucking FIRST place).

How many of you BOTHERED reviewing Biden’s super-shitty policies and actions over his career? (crickets) How many of you have any spine enough to see just how fucking useless he is at this stage? Fuck me, man; this asshole can’t even speak! We already have that. He’s already got various degrees of sexual assault on the books. We already have that. He’s all to eager to work with the GOP and cater to the rich. We already have that! He’s boring as fuck, abrasive and he does NOT inspire voters to come charging out this November.

Trump does, though. His fanatics are breaking down the gates during a pandemic; you can bet your privileged asses that they’ll be out come November assuming they did’t keel over dead from COVID-19. That may be the only edge that Biden gets as he does and says fuck-all nothing except hope that trump screws up enough to get his base to stay home and enough of his own Biden Bros to show up. That’s his big plan, kids.

Kiss your $15/hr good-bye. You don’t seriously thing team biden will really pull that off, do you? For fuck sake, according to Liz Warren, if the min. wage  kept up with cost of living and inflation, it should be at $23/hr NOW. According to Robert Reich, it’s even higher. $15/hr was what we needed well over a decade ago. If biden does pull it off, it’s a token fist in your ass at best, you puppet.

Kiss M4A good-bye. It’s evident that you’d rather dump your cash into the overpriced, empty promises of insurance companies, big pharma, and stoke the fires of endless war with financing the Military Industrial Complex than live a safe, healthy life.

Kiss any sort of Green New Deal good-bye while Pelosi and the others sneer at it and look down their noses at you.

I certainly don’t WANT more of trump...

...but thinking biden will make things better is foolish. Trump will happily stab you through the chest, but the likes of biden prefer to smile while they stab you through the back using the blade forged out of empty promises and lip service. Fuck, if you’re keeping track of the Dem. pundits, they’re already lining up to blame biden’s apparent loss on Sanders and people like me. They’re ALREADY gearing up for him to LOSE. What does THAT tell you? His popularity is utter shit compared to HRC back in 2016.

Let’s not forget that most of Bernie’s supporters backed HRC in 2016 and voted for her. Before that, let’s not forget HER followers’ loyalty when MOST of them bailed on Obama to support McCain. 

I won’t put my name to a vote for Biden. I won’t. I’ve heard too many tales of horror from Survivors and given that Al Franken’s career was burned for much less, I don’t appreciate the HYPOCRISY of the #MeTooExceptBiden rhetoric. MY moral compass, my values, my principles will no longer be something I give the DNC permission to shit on and compromise. If the US needs another 4 of trump burning the house down to wake the fuck up and LEARN that the Dems are a band of feckless twats on the take and actually start voting for PROGRESSIVES and those who are actually LEFT, then so be it. Let the children learn by touching the hot fucking stove; I’ve warned them enough, for years and years now. It’s time to grow a pair of whatever inspires you and wake the fuck up and stop fronting rich, white guys who are all for helping the rich scam us into tax breaks and socialism for them and their corporations while fucking us all in the ass without a kiss first, a grease up, or so much as a reach-around.

Year after year we do this shit and it’s getting worse. Yay, we won the House. So fucking what? What have they ACHIEVED? Pelosi scoffs at saving lives with M4A and we, as a party and a nation failed to get the Senate. The GOP is still cock-blocking everything, good or bad, passed by the House, so really, no big “blue wave” there to brag about.

These people are not stupid. They know the general population is complicit and disinterested in change. Look at all the anti-gun protest after every school shooting? Has much been done since? Technically, trump’s been more hard-ass over gun control than Obama! Holy shit, guys! The “Pussy Hat” march. What’s changed? Meh. Not much. To the GOP and corporate/establishment Dems, women are cheap and nobody cares. Point gone like a fart in the wind. The GOP and the Dems alike know that they can keep you all punching DOWN instead of taking a moment to glance up and see who’d really punching YOU. So long as they let you march, protest, bitch and scream now and then, you’ll get it all out of your system and then it’ll settle down and go back to “normal”.

“Normal” didn’t used to be finding it acceptable to have a documented sexual predator in the White House.

IF you have no problem with Biden, then you must also have no problem with Weinstein, right? Cosby? Judge Kavenaugh?

Uh huh.

I don’t want trump. I want him gone. I refuse to do it with biden taking his place because seriously, the guy wanted to shitcan SS and Medicare/Medicaid. He was gung-ho for Iraq and Afghanistan. He’s a bucket of charred turds.

Look all the women you love, if you have the courage to do so, and you tell them “Hey, I’m fine with electing another rapist for president!” because that’s literally what you’ll be doing. Why don’t you beat and slap her around for a bit before you go out to vote while you’re at it. Backing biden only continues giving permission to the Dems to offer you the worst possible candidate so they can keep their cash flow going.

Have some courage. Have some dignity. Have some fucking empathy and compassion, for fuck sake. Then, maybe, a woman might trust you enough to tell you HER horror story of survival.

[spaceandtimeuniverse]

Election Anxiety

Today is Wednesday, six days left until the election. 

This morning, I woke up to countless news in related with the election. My anxiety started the moment I got into the news. There are cases that the court took up in related with the voting such as the court uphold Texas governor’s order of having one drop in ballot in each county. It is unfair because in several of counties, there are thousands of people and they all need to send in their ballot in one box? There are several that were rejected in Texas that some officials are trying to stop a suppression of vote such as age eligibility requirement to be lived, allowing curbside voting and waive the witness requirements for mail in ballots in Alabama, or suspend the witness requirement in South Carolina. The Court has rejected those arguments. Although the Court has sided for Pennsylvania to have ballots to be counted if they arrive up to three days after election day, I am still concerned on more cases as this in several states in regarding to the election. 

It does not help that a Justice was confirmed early on Monday that has never supervised or argued a case and had little experiences with the court proceedings as Amy Barrett could use her conservative’ beliefs to overturn Roe vs. Wade, the 2008 LGTBA same-sex marriage, DACA and numerous of cases that the majority of Americans does not believe or would agree with if those court cases were overturned. The anxiety increased. 

While there are news all over the media that showed Joe Biden is leading in polls where Clinton four years ago would have been declined or gave Trump an advantage in the polls, I am still reminded by the memories of four years ago where all the national polls would claim Clinton to won the election but the world was shocked when the electoral college counted has gotten Trump to arrive to victory. No matter how many positive news about that, the flashback and anxiety would keep increasing. Memories of those past four years would keep coming back. 

Do you remember when our president mocked a disabled person? Do you remember when the leaked tapes revealed of Trump’s “locker talk”? 

Do you remember where there were protests in Charlottesville and Trump backtracked his condemnation on white supremacists and claimed there were “good people on both side”?

 Do you remember the countless, outrageous tweets that Trump tweeted sometimes in the middle of the night, sometimes four in the morning? That many of those tweets that if someone else would say those in public, those people would have been fired? 

Do you remember the handling of his first hurricane and procrastinated or never gave the aid to Puerto Rico? (Even if the news found later that it was stolen by local officials, why didn’t his administration double checked) 

Do you remember the family separation policy and Trump claiming it was his predecessors’s policy and refused to change the policy? How many families that were separtated? How many children that were locked in cages with “minimal” resources that they could provide to help those children? Remember when ICE was destructive and went to various states including sancturacy cities to take undocumented immigrants from their homes that they were supposed to be safe in? 

Do you remember how many people in his administration have ties or working with Russia? Or that they took advantage of their position for personal gain such as Scott Pruitt, Steven Mnuchin, Ben Carson, Betsy Devos, and so many numerous people who shouldn’t be on the job? Why did the Trump’s administration has so many people such as Flynn, Kelly, Sanders, etc. working and left. He has the highest vacancies or people who left his administration than any administration? 

Do you remember Trump’s ban on transgender in the military? Do you remember Trump mocking the late John McCain claiming that he wasn’t a war hero because he was captured? Do you remember when he called those type of people ‘losers’ that many veterans took offense because they served their country as well as they did? Do you remember when Trump question the soldiers who fought in Afghanistan and sacrificed and turned to John Kelly and said, “I just don’t get it” when John Kelly’s son died in the war? 

I could list so much more. So many more. What was even worse was that under Trump, our country never has been this polarized. This country has never been so divisible. Both parties are blaming each other. While we know that the facts remain about Trump and his administration, there are people who supported him all around the world, claiming “fake news” and refusing to double check those facts themselves. Why is it that lies are more believable than the truth? Is it because people are afraid of admitting they are wrong? Is it because people finally find like-minded people and are stubborn to admit they were wrong because they didn’t want to leave a group where they felt their opinions matter? Is it because people are indifferent to other people’s pain? Their opportunities taken away? Is it much easier for people to shrug off their shoulders and say “it is what it is”? Just as what Trump said during this covid pandemic and how he would respond differently to more than 200,000 lives gone? I am not even surprised that the president had covid, but it doesn’t change his views or his stance on covid. 

I am scared. I am scared for the soul of our country. I know our country have its dark history with breaking treaties with Native Americans, with slavery, with Jim Crows laws, segregations, wars, becoming a face of democracy and secretly rigging elections in third world countries because the outcome would benefits our country and so much more. I believe in the positivity of the country’s progress. We have grown up so far so that we could be in a place where we could finally have laws that matched the constitution that “all man are created equal”. All people are created equal and deserve the same rights and the same privileges as each other. So while we have made so much progress, there is this president that America voted four years ago that shred up all of those progress! Look what happened with gun violence, police brutality, voters’ suppressions, etc. Look what happened when the courts or other police stand by or supported the words of the officers over the victims because they were biased toward the police, laws that needed to be changed or there need to be more resources such as dash-cams needed to be installed, or even . Look what happened with the Keystone Pipeline that threatened our native lands! 

We even have a president who refused to do something about the climate change! Trees are dying, the ocean is in pollution of numerous of plastics, waste that we contributed to kill off other animals’ lives or that affected their habitat negatively. Trump was against alternative energy, claiming about wind power that is killing birds or that he claimed people are just fine in putting more waste in the environment. Because of his reluctance to helping our Earth, winter are getting more colder and dangerous with snow storms and hurricanes. Our summers are getting more hotter with the fires that devastated the west coast and that thousand of people are dying from heat exhaustion, heat wave, etc. The midwest are dealing with more tornados than before. 2020 has topped all previous weather or environmental records in several states or countries. It is just disastrous! All of those regulations that the president strapped off years ago have given more companies or corporations to gain profit, gain more equipments to do more damage to the environment every day. There was an article that it is not the matter of if anymore. Because the  consequences that the world would face has already happened and that it was the matter of now to prevent those consequences from being worse. 

Even in the election, we shouldn’t have the fear of what would happen if our president does not concede if he loses. That is something that should scare so many people. What would happen if the president does not concede? Would the Supreme Court sided with Trump about the election? Would there be an illegible recount in hopes for Trump’s officials to try to rig the election with more ballots? What if the recount cause Trump to win? What does that means? Would there be a revolution? A civil war? What if Trump does concede but his supporters would be outraged to cause a civil war? 

Whatever that means, all of this shouldn’t happen. A presidential election should just be boring and whoever the next president, the transition should be smooth. Our constitution is in crisis.  Our democracy is in perils. If there are something afoul with our government, our democracy, and our votes in this election, then come what may, we should do something. We should get our voices heard or our hands seen. We should go out and protest, revolt if we have to. If it leads to a constitutional crisis or to start off a new government in the process, so be it. 

But it doesn’t have to be this way. We should go out there and vote! Vote by mail or vote in person safely. Make sure you check if your vote is valid. The power is in our hands. What would you do with that power? Would you keep it for yourself like our president did? Or would you share it for others in need? 

[merrikstryfe]

(THREAD) Today Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo unveiled the real nightmare scenario for the 2020 election—and the question of what Trump has legal authority to do has nothing to do with it. I hope you'll read on and retweet—as what I'm describing here is what America is heading for. 

1/ Autocracies aren't born in rule of law. They're not even primarily born in violence. Rather they arise *despite* rule of law—often on the strength of a benighted populism, in fact just the sort of populist movement Trump is building now over false fears of a "rigged" election. 

2/ The question isn't whether Trump has legal authority to move Election Day and thereby extend his presidency—he doesn't—but a different question: what happens if he just declares that he *does* have this power? And what if he can do so with a false *veneer* of legal legitimacy? 

3/ By October 31, Trump's decision not to combat COVID-19 (indeed to worsen the pandemic with every one of his words, actions, and decisions not to act), coupled with an incipient flu season, is likely to send America's COVID-19 data—infections, deaths—into its horrifying nadir. 

4/ Meanwhile, Trump has put a crony who's likely a witness in an ongoing federal criminal probe—a man who's a peer of perjurers (and worse) Michael Cohen, Elliott Broidy and Gordon Sondland—in charge of the United States Postal Service. Already, this crony is destroying the USPS. 

5/ If, on October 30, COVID-19 is cresting—as it likely will be—and the USPS is less able to deliver mail properly than at any point in recent history, as seems likely (and on Trump's end intentional), Trump's self-manufactured "case" for a national emergency will be at its apex. 

6/ Today, Mike Pompeo told us Trump lackey Barr—who has never refused the president anything, who appears to be a Trump co-conspirator in the Ukraine scandal, and who has already shown a penchant for violating the law—gets to decide if Trump can announce a change in Election Day.

7/ Note that each time I use the anodyne euphemism "change in Election Day," what I'm describing is in fact apocalyptic—an artificial extension of the Trump presidency corresponding with the end of American democracy and the beginning of Trump's reign as America's first autocrat. 

8/ Barr has already instructed OLC (the Office of Legal Counsel) to produce opinions that violate all existing law (for that matter, we saw that during the prior GOP administration, Bush's, as to torture). Barr can get the OLC to crush a CIA whistleblower—or change Election Day.

9/ I ask anyone reading this to simply play out the following hypothetical—the one I offer in the next tweet—which is "hypothetical" only inasmuch as it takes everything we know about Trump, Pompeo, Barr, COVID-19, and the USPS *right now* and projects it 90 days into the future:

10/ On October 30, Trump announces, with an OLC opinion "granting" him this power in hand, that he is moving the 2020 presidential election 120 days, after which time he will review the nation's ability to safely and securely conduct an election. He announces it via tweet and TV.

11/ Understand that this would be illegal—and wouldn't change election day. But that wouldn't be the point. The point would be to *convince Trump voters not to vote*. You may have to read the preceding sentence multiple times—it's counterintuitive unless you're a metamodernist.

12/ This thread isn't on metamodernism. All you need to know is that on the day in June 2015 Trump announced his candidacy, I published a HuffPost essay declaring that what made Trump dangerous was his ability to manipulate reality (in a way theorists connect to "metamodernism"). 

13/ The way to win an unwinnable election, using the sort of powerful reframing of events a certain way of thinking Trump instinctively (not intelligently or responsibly) employs, is not to turn out your voters... but *declare the election invalid once your voters don't show up*. 

14/ The purpose of the pre-election Trump announcement I am hypothesizing here would not be to help Trump *win* the 2020 election, but to convince so many Trump voters *not to vote* that the results of the election favor Biden by *so much* the election looks wholly illegitimate. 

15/ Imagine a scenario in which, with 3 branches of government—executive, judicial, legislative—you have the executive branch declaring the election was moved, the judicial branch (as yet) silent, and the legislative branch in chaos because no one in the GOP knows what to say/do.

16/ By convincing his voters to stay home—because he's "moved the election"—Trump will have caused every GOP member of Congress to *lose their reelection*, *forcing* them to back his play and say that the election was delayed and therefore Biden didn't actually win on November 3. 

17/ The result: an executive branch that says the election was invalid; half the legislative branch (the GOP half) saying the election was invalid; election results that *look* invalid (as Biden has won by 50+ points); and a judicial branch that hasn't—and can't—say anything yet.

18/ In that circumstance, what does "rule of law" even mean? You have a separation of powers issue—a conflict between branches of government—that the Supreme Court *must* hear, and because it's the most complex case ever heard by SCOTUS in US history, it's impossible to expedite.

19/ The mere fact that Trump would have enacted this constitutional crisis just 96 hours pre-election means SCOTUS *can't* speak on it pre-election, and the complexity of the case would throw into chaos *all* state election deadlines. Which is basically the point of Trump's plot. 

20/ All Trump needs in this scenario is (a) SCOTUS to move at its usual glacial pace, and (b) GOP-run states (states with GOP secretaries of state running their elections) to *refuse to certify election results* or *choose electors* until the Supreme Court has acted on the issue. 

21/ I'm not even sure *Trump* would be the plaintiff in this case—as he and his GOP allies in Congress (and GOP secretaries of state) would so adamantly declare the election results invalid they might wait to make the *Democrats* sue in federal court, making them look desperate. 

22/ And how magnanimous Trump will be! He and his GOP allies will offer to *negotiate* with Democrats in lieu of them filing a federal suit. Trump will say, "We have to wait until this invisible plague is under control. That's *all* anyone is asking here." It'll sound persuasive!

23/ Know what'll make it *more* persuasive? Election results so insane-looking—Biden 82%, Trump 15%—they'll make Egypt's el-Sisi blush. Biden will be half-inclined to *agree* with Trump on a do-over—knowing his term as an "illegitimate monarch" may be marked by historic violence. 

24/ Right now I need everyone in media; everyone on "legal Twitter"; everyone who's a professional political analyst to comment on this thread—or on your own feeds, it doesn't matter—explaining why this Trump plan wouldn't work. Why it isn't *exactly* what he's setting us up for.

25/ Understand that I didn't develop this thread out of some fever dream. All I did was take statements and actions by Trump, Barr, and Pompeo; the current status of COVID-19 and the USPS (and who controls each); and the way of thinking Trump has exhibited *since June 2015*. /end 

PS/ I understand—and empathize with, as a lawyer—those who reply, "Nah, he ceases to be POTUS on January 20th at noon." Again, that's the view that *law* determines if a coup is successful, not the brute force of populism and logistics—the logic undergirding Trump's actions now. 

PS2/ In the scenario I've described, yes, the law would suggest Biden—having won the election 82% to 15%; with less than 270 electoral votes; and with all GOP politicians and all GOP secretaries of state and most GOP voters saying he won a fake election—is the president. So what? 

PS3/ What would in mean—in that scenario—for someone to be "president"? And that's the question the five ultra-conservative justices of the Supreme Court would have to decide, probably on a timeline so glacial it couldn't be concluded effectively until early January 2021 at best. 

PS4/ More importantly, that's the question *Democrats* would have to decide—and would probably be deciding in the midst of historic Republican protests and threats of violence all across the country. Would *Democrats* consider it their best move to accept that election "victory"? 

PS5/ We learned in January '20 that impeachments are about politics, not law—though they're supposed to adhere to rule of law. In January '21 we may learn *elections* are *also* about politics, not law. What happens if Dems must allow a do-over to preserve the peace of our Union? 

NOTE/ This scenario works for Trump even if early voting depresses Biden's win to (say) 62% to 36%. It may even work without Barr aboard. It may work if the "don't vote" effort is homegrown, inspired and supported by Trump but not demanded by him. The premise itself is the thing. 

NOTE2/ The solution here is for America to publicly discuss this scenario *now*—and invalidate it. GOP politicians must agree to abide by the election results even if Trump convinces his voters not to show up. Barr must state clearly that Trump cannot legally "move" election day.

NOTE3/ Constitutional law experts must play out how SCOTUS would act. Election law experts must do scenario-planning on how misconduct by GOP secretaries of state could be thwarted. Dems must educate Republicans on who's POTUS on January 20 if SCOTUS is still working on a ruling. 

NOTE4/ Democrats must announce now that there'll be no "do-over" election—and anyone who opts not to vote is making a decision they must *live by*. Emergency assistance must be provided to USPS. Social media should deem Trump tweets on moving election day "election interference." 

NOTE5/ It's amazing to see responses saying "the military wouldn't allow it" or "Pelosi would be POTUS." Again, this sort of coup happens through *politics, rhetoric, and the reframing of reality with GOP pol/voter support*—it has nothing to do with law, violence or the military.