#daniel swain

[tomorrowusa]

We knew this was coming but now it's official.

According to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 was the hottest year on record.

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has confirmed in its latest Global Climate Highlights report that 2024 was the hottest on record. The study reveals a rise of 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times — defined as the level between 1850 and 1900. Previously, 2023 was the warmest year. At the international climate conference in Paris in 2015, 196 world leaders agreed to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, and to pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees (2.7 Fahrenheit). Samantha Burgess, C3S deputy director told DW that the world is now "teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5-degree level." [ ... ] Scientists working as part of World Weather Attribution, an organization that studies the links between extreme weather and climate change, found that 26 of the events they looked at last year had been made worse or more likely to happen due to rising temperatures. Human burning of fossil fuels for activities such as heating, industry, and transportation is the main driver of global warming, but natural phenomena, like El Niño have also played a part in pushing up temperatures over the past two years, said scientists at C3S. [ ... ] Typically occurring every two to seven years,El Niño is associated with the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to overall average sea surface temperatures that are 0.51 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991 – 2020 average.  Sea surface temperatures are of particular concern to scientists because oceans store around 90% of the heat connected to global warming.

From climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain at the California Institute for Water Resources.

Sadly, things won't be improving over the next four years.

[dspd]

Hogwarts Houses (RadDan°TM) I think some TMA characters might've been in very randomly selected

Jon Sims - Slytherin - specifically because he would have been a Ravenclaw except he had that defining moment with Mr. Spider which made him want knowledge to prevent being so powerless, as many traumatized

Graham Folger - Ravenclaw - bro took a criminology course for funsies do I need to say more?

Julio Hernandez - Hufflepuff - guy seems like a solid, down to earth, dependable person

Father Burroughs - Gryffindor - he's got good intentions but his righteousness blinded him to his straying from his chosen path

NotThem - Hufflepuff - while closer to a magical beast than human, NotThem is patient and persistent in how they stalk their victims, whose magical properties works very hard, and has the hidden teeth of a badger which very few ever see. The Hat only sorts according to the head it was placed on and would let NotThem matriculate.

Dominic Swain - Ravenclaw - theater nerd that knows a little bit about a lot of things, certainly enough to spy the diamond in the rough of a Leitner book

Martin Blackwood - Hufflepuff - no one knew why since he didn't talk much and always had his nose in a book and kept to himself in a Ravenclawish way but, even though he's a muggle born, he had a roaring side business during the summer selling easy-to-disguise-as-Muggle potions to pay for his mother's live-in carer while he's away at school.

Stoker brothers - Gryffindor - idk they give off Sirius mixed with Weasleys vibes

Tova McHugh - Slytherin - the whole taking but balancing with good deeds is giving upper class/super rich it's okay because look at my philanthropy eat the rich vibes. Definitely a pure blood or pure blood adjacent that quietly believes in that shit but, similar to Narcissa, does have a wall she hits when she says enough

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from the Associated Press:

Southern California is experiencing its most devastating winter fires in more than four decades. Fires don’t usually blaze at this time of year, but specific ingredients have come together to defy the calendar in a fast and deadly manner.

Start with supersized Santa Ana winds whipping flames and embers at 100 mph — much faster than normal — and cross that with the return of extreme drought. Add on weather whiplash that grew tons of plants in downpours then record high temperatures that dried them out to make easy-to-burn fuel. Then there’s a plunging and unusual jet stream, and lots of power lines flapping in those powerful gusts.

Experts say that’s what is turning wildfires into a deadly urban conflagration.

“Tiny, mighty and fast” fires have blazed through America’s west in the last couple of decades as the world warms, said University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch. She published a study in the journal Science last October that looked at 60,000 fires since 2001 and found that the fastest-growing ones have more than doubled in frequency since 2001 and caused far more destruction that slower, larger blazes.

“Fires have gotten faster,” Balch said Wednesday. “The big culprit we’re suspecting is a warming climate that’s making it easier to burn fuels when conditions are just right.”

Summer fires are bigger usually, but they don’t burn nearly as fast. Winter fires “are much more destructive because they happen much more quickly” said U.S. Geological Survey fire scientist Jon Keeley.

AccuWeather estimated damage from the latest fires could reach $57 billion, with the private firm’s chief meteorologist, Jonathan Porter, saying “it may become the worst wildfire in modern California history based on the number of structures burned and economic loss.”

“It’s really just the perfect alignment of everything in the atmosphere to give you this pattern and strong wind,” said Tim Brown, director of the Western Regional Climate Center.

Wind speed and the speed of spreading flames are clearly linked.

“The impact increases exponentially as wind speed increases,” said fire scientist Mike Flannigan of Thompson Rivers University in Canada. If firefighters can get to the flames within 10 minutes or so, its spread can be contained, but “15 minutes, it’s too late and it’s gone. The horse has left the barn.”

There’s no sure link between Santa Ana winds — gusts from the east that come down the mountains, gain speed and hit the coast — to human-caused climate change, said Daniel Swain, climate scientist for the California Institute for Water Resources.

But a condition that led to those winds is a big plunge in the temperature of the jet stream — the river of air that moves weather systems across the globe — which helped bring cold air to the eastern two-thirds of the nation, said University of California Merced climate and fire scientist John Abatzoglou. Other scientists have preliminarily linked those jet stream plunges to climate change.

Santa Ana winds are happening later and later in the year, moving more from the drier fall to the wetter winter, Keeley said. Normally, that would reduce fire threats, but this isn’t a normal time.

[zappedbyzabka]

Some of my general thoughts on CK season 6 part 3

Ralph and Billy's tearful scenes with 'Miyagi' and Kreese were phenomenal. They're such great actors 10/10.

I have a lot to say about Johnny's scene with Kreese but just to keep things short, I'll talk about that another time. But wow wow wow. Dominique Swain applauds.

Daniel's nonstop anxiety about his family getting hurt :/ least he had fun getting tipsy with his wife. Amanda looked gorgeous with that new hair (though she always does.) He really tapped into offense side this season. Looove how he knew exactly what to say to make Silver blank-face and leave lmao.

I'm SOOOO never getting over 'You're alright, Lawrence!' and lawrusso recreating the nose swipe scene with Daniel acting as Kreese for Johnny to inspire him. Johnny was MUCH enjoying that.

Daniel basically buying Johnny his building back?😭 AGHHHH. 'I believe in you'....

Tory being dressed in the same gi as young Johnny, and Robby being dressed in the Miyagi Do gi with a hurt leg—paralleling Daniel—in combination with those scenes being where they get back together makes me insane. Like, lawrusso in another universe.

I feel Robby could have gotten a more smoothed out and rewarding end but at the same time, I'm glad he's happy and taken care of now. Angel.

Sam and Tory's scenes together were so heartwarming. Especially the scene of Tory getting emotional over the LaRusso's kindness and generosity to her. Finally getting some one on one with Daniel and Johnny.

When Sam brought up having something to tell Daniel but being worried he'd be disappointed in her, my mind instantly went to a coming out scene tbh.

The montage of binary boyfriends and samtory as Bobby's reading the vows? What are you trying to say???

Bobby and Johnny meeting up again <333 Bobby still gives him that special 'I would actually do for you' stare (whether platonic or not) and I squeal about it. I love that Ron got some time to shine<333 I thought Jimmy would appear, but he sadly did not.

I also thought Anoush was gay but I was obviously mistaken since he was kissing Ralph's daughter (Julia's performance was hilarious.)

Silver speeding away with Johnny in that car was crazyyy. Billy had yet another Scott (not the werewolf) Mccall moment except he didn't get locked in a tower this time. You would've thought the employees would have seen Silver in the papers months ago and called the cops.

His envy over Daniel and Johnny having things to live for and people that actually love them was sad—especially with him being ill. If you think about it, Kreese was all he had besides the money, and when he didn't have Kreese the only way he had anyone around him was pretending to be someone else.

His jealousy over Kreese's love for Johnny really shined through as well with that 'I don't know why you messed up what I was doing with Kreese' (paraphrasing) and the way he called Kreese pathetic for groveling to Johnny no matter how many times he rejected him. Silver felt that he himself was pathetic for having always crawled back to Kreese no matter the rejection he faced.

Also the fucking grenade boat explosion scene??? INSANE???? Literally died in each other's arms. I know many people have problems with it but I don't see what else they really could have done for the two villains with endless crimes (which I love about them alright) that wouldn't be worse.

Think about how Silver probably thought he'd die alone, but didn't. When I realized Kreese was set on offing himself and taking Silver with him the whole time, and that was the reason he spent most of his scenes apologizing to the last few people he loved...

Would like to know more about what happened to Wolf. His bitchiness almost rivaled Johnny's, and damn did he eat up every scene he was in. Just a great character.

Johnny with the tailor? There's my prissy brat.

Considering everything wrong with the baby plot, I at least liked how they did end up choosing to show it. Johnny going full girl dad and being so sweet and coddling to the baby + Miguel and Robby made my heart SOAR. He's always been tender with them but the writers never really did let him to just relax and love. He deserves to be happy, like every imperfect victim irl and in fiction who gets bashed for not meeting people's standards does.

Carmen is a baddie. Just chilling truly

[dontbestingybaby]

Bebe Daniels from Photoplay, July 1921

original caption:

CANST hear the strumming of the sweet guitar? Canst gaze into her limpid eyes? Canst measure all the swains' sad sighs? Ah, Bebe, what a minx you are! (But though her ways are proper, from making eyes, no once can stop her.)

Photographer: Alfred Cheney Johnston

[azspot]

All I can say is that the past 10 or 15 years in California really have been a poster child of what we expect to see more of in the future, which are these really wide swings between wet and dry. We will see more whiplash in California. Not every winter will bring extreme winter fires. But it’s not a question of what does the average year look like, it’s what do the bad years look like? And the bad fire years are clearly getting worse. The driest years are clearly getting drier and hotter.

Daniel Swain

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Gabrielle Canon at The Guardian:

A large earthquake struck the northern California coast on Thursday morning, rattling communities and activating emergency alerts for both shaking and tsunami risks just before 11am local time. Registered as a magnitude 7.0 and originating near the town of Ferndale in Humboldt county, the quake could be felt in San Francisco more than 260 miles (418km) away. Roughly 1.3 million people felt the quake , according to initial estimates provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS), which also reported that risks to human life remained low. “That is an earthquake with quite a lot of energy,” the climate scientist Daniel Swain said of the temblor during a discussion shared on YouTube, adding that it was somewhat similar to other earthquakes that have occurred in the region over the last decade. Cellphones buzzed throughout the region, warning of the incoming shaking and offering ample time to brace and cover. Tsunami alerts also rang out for at least 5.3 million people on the California coast and into Oregon, warning of large waves, strong currents and coastal flooding that could persist through the afternoon.

Following the alert, Bay Area Rapid Transit trains were held and underground stations were cleared as major delays were announced throughout the system, and the San Francisco fire department began evacuating the beaches. The tsunami warning was withdrawn shortly after noon as officials announced the highest risks had subsided. “One challenge with tsunami hazards is you don’t always know what you’re going to get,” Swain said, explaining why the alarm was raised and then abruptly withdrawn. “If it’s going to be big it may be too late to get people out of harm’s way.” But some experts in the emergency management field were critical of how the warnings were rolled out, especially to residents in the San Francisco Bay area. Swain pointed to the potential for warning-fatigue to set in when alerts aren’t adequately explained as some in the region voiced concerns about confusion caused by inconsistent messaging and directions as some warnings were canceled.

A 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck the Northern California coastline today.

I think this is a way of saying it’s God’s punishment for electing Donald Trump.

[white-cat-of-doom]

A celebration of closing night for Cast 13 of the Oasis of the Seas. They ended their run last night, 23 July 2023.

Issy Moore as Victoria, Roberto Facchin as Alonzo, Olivia Swain as Sillabub, Ashlyn Fenn as Tantomile, Luke Stone as Coricopat, Lewis Rimmer as Plato and Macavity, Sam Bateson as Mistoffelees, Anna Sofia McGuire as Rumpleteazer, Lance Barker as Mungojerrie, and Logan Mortier as Munkustrap.

Some last scenes of backstage fun.

Grace Crugnale as Cassandra, Roberto Facchin as Alonzo, Ashlyn Fenn as Tantomile, Jack Duff as Skimbleshanks, Anna Sofia McGuire as Rumpleteazer, Bennett Ryan as Tumblebrutus, Phoebe Charles as Demeter, Ellie Monkley as Babygriz, Taila Halford as Jellylorum, Emily Ormiston as Bombalurina, Emma Brynn Cooper as Jennyanydots, Logan Mortier as Munkustrap, Lewis Rimmer as Plato and Macavity, Issy Moore as Victoria, and Luke Stone as Coricopat.

A tradition of handoffs to the new cast.

Issy Moore as Victoria with Charlotte Liddle, Taila Halford as Jellylorum with Jackey Good, Olivia Swain as Sillabub with Gabriela Rodriguez, Logan Mortier as Munkustrap with Ben Reynolds, Sam Bateson as Mistoffelees with Daniel Chesnut, Jack Duff as Skimbleshanks with Thomas Alsop, Lewis Rimmer as Plato with Joshua Clayton, Bennett Ryan as Tumblebrutus with Matthew Tratch, and Emily Ormiston as Bombalurina and Charlotte Reavey.

[tamtam-go92]

Ages after Round 1

After 3,5 days (1 year and 9 month) the current ages of Uberhood's inhabitants are:

If you didn't notice: there is now a Masterpost with all families (might contain mild spoilers): click!

You can also read the whole round 1 in chronological order if you click here!

89: Luis Aspir 86: Carlos Contender 64: Olive Specter, Patrizio Monty 60: Dora Ottomas 59: Mortimer Goth 58: Herb Oldie 57: Isabella Monty, Consort Capp 56: Coral Oldie, Betty Goldstein, PT9 Smith 55: Denise Jacquet, Herbert Goodie, Faith Goodie, Catherine Viejo 51: Jenny Smith 50: Daniel Pleasant 49: Mary-Sue Pleasant 46: Jason Cleveland 45: Marissa Cleveland 44: Edward Contrary, Albany Capp 43: Benjamin Baldwin, Stephen Tinker 42: Vivian Cho, Morty Roth 41: Isabel Baldwin, Wanda Tinker, Opal Contrary, Marcel Jocque, Sophia Jocque, Stella Roth 38: Darren Dreamer 37: Gilbert Jacquet, Buzz Grunt 36: Checo Ramirez, Leod McGreggor 35: Florence Delarosa 34: Antonio Monty 33: Loki Beaker, Pascal Curious 32: Timothy Riley, Lisa Ramirez, John Burb, Goneril Capp, Peter Ottomas, Lola Curious, Cornwall Capp 31: Armand DeBateau, Victor Aspir, Elizabeth Aspir, Issac Bell, Hannah Bell, Brandi Broke, Rose Greenman, Jason Greenman 30: Jessica Peterson, Circe Beaker, Ajay Loner, Erin Beaker, Samantha Ottomas 29: Sanjay Ramaswami, Vidcund Curious, Bianca Monty 28: Ramir Patel, Jennifer Burb, Alexandra O'Mackey, Priya Ramaswami 27: Ana Patel, Patricia Wan, Kristen Loste, Gabe O'Mackey 26: Gabriel Green, Matthew Picaso, Andrew Martin, Nervous Subject, Cassandra Goth, Regan Capp 25: Chastity Gere, Sharon Wirth, Jessica Picaso, Kent Capp, Oberon Summerdream 24: Samantha Cordial, Kimberly Cordial, Geoff Rutherford, Malcolm Landgraab IV, Chester Gieke, Jason Larson, Jodie Larson, John Mole, Trent Traveller, Julien Cooke, Nathan Gavigan, Mary Gavigan, Cyd Roseland, Robert Kim, Cynthia Kim, Tara Kat, Cleo Shikibu, Dina Caliente, Nina Caliente, Don Lothario, Lazlo Curious, Chloe Curious, Titania Summerdream 23: Connor Weir, Natasha Una, Trisha Traveller, 22: Gunnar Roque, Jane Stacks 21: Roxie Sharpe, Jonah Powers, Guy Wrightley, Mickey Dosser, Monica Bradfort, Ashley Pitts, Brittany Upsnott, Allyn Monty 20: Mitch Indie, Max Flexor, Delilah O'Feefe, Edwin Sharpe, Marla Biggs, Phineaus Furley, Ellen Frost, Chaz Whippler, Emily Lee, Tom Freshe, Matthew Hart, DJ Verse, Sarah Love, Jessie Pilferson, Jasmine Rai, Zoe Zimmerman, Frances J. Worthington III, Aldric Davis, Almeric Davis, William Williamson, Blossom Moonbeam, Klara Vonderstein, Stella Terrano, Martin Ruben, Allegra Gorey, Joshua Ruben, Kevin Beare, Castor Nova, Tiffany Sampson, Heather Huffington, Sam Thomas, Jared Starchild, Ty Bubbler, Jimmy Phoenix, Erik Swain 19: Johnny Smith, Hailey Goodie 18: Ophelia Nigmos, Swan Goodie 17: Tank Grunt, Andrzej Goodie 16: Mercutio Monty, Tybalt Capp 15: Ripp Grunt, Romeo Monty, David Ottomas 14: Justin Cleveland, Angela Pleasant, Lilith Pleasant, Puck Summerdream, Juliette Capp 13: Rick Contrary, Violat Jocque, Dustin Broke, Hermia Capp, Sandra Roth, Jacob Martin 12: Melody Tinker, Dirk Dreamer, Jules O'Mackey, Miranda Capp, 11: Tara DeBateau, Gavin Newson, Ginger Newson 09: Sofia Baldwin, Lucy Burb, Jill Smith, Bottom Summerdream, Alexander Goth, Buck Grunt, Hal Capp, Beatrice Monty, Benedick Monty, 08: Sally Riley, Daniel Bell, Desdemonda Capp, Sharla Ottomas 07: Tessa Ramirez, Tina Traveller, Isaiah Gavigan, Gabriella Newson, Gallagher Newson, Justin Kim, Xander Roth 05: Beau Broke 04: Markus Baldwin, Etsu Cho 03: Pauline Aspir, Garett Newson, Georgia Newson, Daisy Greenman 02: Ariel Capp, Tommy Ottomas 01: Willow Patel, Ian Broke, Winona Curious, Kevin Ottomas, Nadja Ottomas 00: Frank Tinker, Wendy Bell, Felicity Gavivan, Nicolas Greenman, Octavia Greenman, Victor Roth, Felix Smith, Isolde Capp, Otis Ramaswami

[foreverlogical]

As the Midwestern and Eastern U.S. braced for what could be the longest heatwave in decades for some locations, a wildfire near Los Angeles forced more than 1,000 people to evacuate over Father's Day weekend.

The climate crisis caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels is making both heatwaves and wildfires more frequent and extreme, and politicians and environmental advocates pointed out the role that state and national policy can play in fueling extreme weather.

"Each of the last 12 months have been the hottest on record," Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) wrote on social media on Sunday. "This week, cities across the country will see record-high temperatures. A vote for Donald Trump is a vote to surrender the fight against the devastation of climate change. We cannot let that happen."

"Politicians making bad policy decisions (like killing congestion pricing) is the number one cause of climate change, which makes heatwaves like this one worse."

Former U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told oil and gas executives this spring that donating $1 billion to his campaign would be a "deal" for them because he would dismantle the Biden administration's climate regulations.

Sanders' remarks came as the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center forecast that "record-breaking heat" would "expand from the Midwest and Great Lakes to the Northeast this week, potentially lingering through early next week."

NWS said the heatwave would be the "first significant" heatwave of the season and could break daily temperature records and some monthly June temperature records for the portion of the country stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast between Monday and next Saturday.

"The longevity of dangerous heat forecasted for some locations has not been experienced in decades," NWS said.

The heat index could come close to 105°F in many places, and nighttime temperatures of around 75°F mean that those without cooling infrastructure will see "little to no relief."

The high temperatures could impact millions of people from Michigan to Maine. As of Saturday, 22.6 million people were under extreme heat warnings, watches, or advisories, according toThe New York Times.

University of California, Los Angeles, climate scientist Daniel Swain told the Times that the heat would "affect a bunch of highly populated areas where there hasn't been quite as many stories about extreme heat recently," adding, "Now, it's New England's turn."

The NWS warned, "With the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration."

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul issued a warning on social media on Saturday, pointing out that extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the U.S.

However, climate advocates criticized Hochul for exacerbating the root cause of more extreme heatwaves with her last-minute cancellation of a New York City congestion pricing plan earlier this month.

"Politicians making bad policy decisions (like killing congestion pricing) is the number one cause of climate change, which makes heatwaves like this one worse," the Sunrise Movement wrote in response to Hochul's post.

Long-time climate advocate and author Bill McKibben said: "This governor just blocked congestion pricing, one of the most important climate policy advances possible. She's redefining trolling."

Climate Central noted that, "while heatwaves are common in summer, this early season excessive, likely record-breaking heat is made as much as two times to five times MORE likely to occur in mid-June due to human-caused climate change (particularly overnight warmth)."

Meanwhile, on the West Coast, the Post Fire ignited at around 1:45 pm on Saturday local time in Los Angeles County, California, about 65 miles from downtown Los Angeles, The Washington Post reported.

As of Sunday afternoon, it had spread 12,265 acres and was 2% contained, according to California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire). Fire officials said the blaze was fanned by heat, low humidity, and wind and had damaged two structures.

"Currently crews are working to construct perimeter fire lines around the flakes of the fire. Aircraft are working to stop forward progress but have limited visibility," Cal Fire wrote on Sunday, adding that "the fire is pushing up into Hungry Valley Park. California State Park Services have evacuated 1,200 people from Hungry Valley Park. Pyramid Lake is closed because of the threat of the Post Fire."

One of those evacuated was 33-year-old Oscar Flores, who was visiting Hungry Valley Park with his 12-year-old son on Saturday.

"It looked like it was the last day of the world," Flores told the Los Angeles Times. "People were loading quickly and merging out, driving fast. The ranger said you have 10 minutes [to get] whatever you can pack."

[webtable]

AVATAR WRESTLER ROSTER

every entity has a set number of avatars that can operate underneath/fight for them at any given time. this number varies depending on the strength and dangers of the entity, along with demand.

the current roster is as follows under the cut:

THE BURIED:

Laura Popham -- Betrayed the Dark

Karolina Gorka

Vincent Yang -- Betrayed the Lonely

Dominic Swain -- Betrayed the Vast

THE CORRUPTION:

John Amherst

Jordan Kennedy -- Betrayed the Desolation

Jane Prentiss -- Previously in a tag team with Oliver Banks

Joshua Galen -- In the process of turning people away from their entities to worship them (has: Matthew Irving)

THE DARK:

Natalie Ennis

Manuela Dominguez -- in the Daedalus Crew

Matthew Irving -- Set rivalry with Augustin Choudhary | torn between Joshua Galen and the Dark

THE DESOLATION:

Agnes Montague

Jack Barnabas -- Recently proposed to Agnes in the ring

Jude Perry

Diego Molina

THE END:

Oliver Banks -- Previously in a tag team with Jane Prentiss

Nathaniel Thorp

THE EXTINCTION:

Gary Boylan -- Rarely fights as a result of the destruction

THE EYE:

Amy Patel

Augustin Choudhary -- Betrayed the Hunt | Set rivalry with Matthew Irving

Rosie Zampano

Jonah Magnus (as himself)

THE FLESH:

"Cook"

Toby Carlisle

Jared Hopworth

THE HUNT:

Julia Montauk

Robert Montauk -- Betrayed the Dark

Trevor Herbert

THE LONELY:

Evan Lucas -- Lucas family drama heavily referenced in promotions

Naomi Herne

Carter Chilcott -- in the Daedalus Crew

Carlita Sloane

THE SLAUGHTER:

Jennifer Ling

Lisa Carmel

Alfred Grifter

THE SPIRAL:

Michael Shelly -- Tag team: The Distortion

Helen Richardson -- Tag team: The Distortion

"Doctor" David Ramao

Lydia Halligan

THE STRANGER:

Daniel Rawlings

Lorell St John

Leanne Denikin -- Betrayed the Eye

The NotThems -- A cycle of wrestlers | Relies heavily on promotions

THE VAST:

Michael Crew -- Betrayed the Spiral

Jan Kilbride -- in the Daedelus Crew

Robert Kelly

THE WEB:

Annabelle Cane

Raymond Fielding -- Betrayed the Eye

Neil Lagorio -- Relies heavily on promotions

[thechembow]

Apple’s weather app said Sacramento would reach 119 degrees next week. How accurate is it?

June 27, 2024 - Sacramento Bee

Ahead of a coming heat wave that will continue through the Fourth of July, Sacramento residents woke up on Thursday morning to see Apple’s weather app predicting a highs well over 100 degrees in the next week.

The most surprising forecast, however, was an estimated high of 119 degrees on Saturday, July 6.

“It almost certainly will not be 119 degrees in Sacramento next week, although it does look like it’s going to be very hot, and there may be some record-breaking heat,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability...

Swain said weather apps, including Apple’s, are “frustratingly unsophisticated” given modern advancements in weather forecasting, and that they do not accurately convey best estimates of future weather.

A spokesman for Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

By early Thursday afternoon, the Apple forecast for July 6 had fallen to 106 degrees...

When the temperature exaggeration becomes this extreme, people start to notice! Restored monsoonal conditions and the new increased humidity in California make it feel hotter than we're used to. Instead of reporting the actual humidity and temperatures, they underestimate humidity and overestimate temperature and people usually fall for it.

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from Grist:

It’s supposed to be the rainy season in Southern California, but the last time Los Angeles measured more than a tenth-inch of rain was eight months ago, after the city logged one of the soggiest periods in its recorded history. Since then, bone-dry conditions have set the stage for the catastrophic wildfires now descending upon the metropolis from multiple directions.

This quick cycling between very wet and very dry periods — one example of what scientists have come to call “weather whiplash” — creates prime conditions for wildfires: The rain encourages an abundance of brush and grass, and once all that vegetation dries out, it only takes a spark and a gust of wind to fuel a deadly fire. That’s what happened in Los Angeles County this week, when a fierce windstorm fueled the Palisades and Eaton fires, which as of Wednesday night had killed at least five people, destroyed more than 2,000 buildings, and forced tens of thousands of people to evacuate their homes.

The kind of weather whiplash that fueled the fires is only becoming more common, and not just in the United States. A new analysis in the peer-reviewed academic journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment has found that rapid shifts between heavy rain and drought (and vice versa) are becoming more intense — and the trend is unfolding faster than climate models have projected. Across the world’s land area, weather whiplash within three-month periods has increased by 31 to 66 percent since the mid-20th century, according to the research. That means that most places around the world find themselves getting both wetter and drier in quick succession, a dangerous combination that can lead to landslides, crop losses, and even the spread of diseases.

“The volatility of wet and dry extremes is this sort of emerging signature of climate change,” said Daniel Swain, a co-author of the paper and a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “This year, unfortunately, I couldn’t have asked for a better poster child for this process than Southern California.”

Swain, along with researchers across the United States and in Switzerland, analyzed a flurry of recent research on what they refer to as “hydroclimate volatility” and developed a way to measure how it might get worse in the future. They found that the swings between very wet and very dry weather are rising exponentially for each passing fraction of a degree the globe warms.

To understand why wet and dry periods are becoming more extreme, it can help to think of the atmosphere as a kitchen sponge that’s becoming more and more absorbent as it warms. When you wring out this more powerful sponge, it sends down heavier rains than before. On the other hand, when the sponge dries out, it has even more capacity to suck up moisture from the soil and plants below, parching the landscape and turning it into tinder. The paper’s authors coin a new phrase for this phenomenon: the “expanding atmospheric sponge effect.” Jim Stagge, who runs the Hydrologic Extremes Research Laboratory at The Ohio State University and was not involved in the new research, called it “a clever analogy” and said the paper’s evidence was generally convincing.

[platinumaspiration]

For some reason, Daniel Bell picked a fight with Tank 🤷‍♀️

The Llama Mascot stopped by to drop off a love note. Erik Swain, out of fury, stole Daniel and Viola's newspaper. He's still not over losing.

[azspot]

People complain about the water supply and then they forget that what happens when you put several hundred fire engines all drawing water through hoses from the same water main. There’s only so much water that can flow through the main at one time. And once the fires started burning structure to structure, think about what’s in each of those structures: water pipes, people’s kitchens and bathrooms and laundry rooms. When those houses and commercial buildings burned, all of those pipes melted or burst. Now you have thousands and thousands of major water leaks at the same time that you have hundreds of fire engines drawing upon the city supply.

Daniel Swain