#1.5° C

[tomorrowusa]

We knew this was coming but now it's official.

According to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 was the hottest year on record.

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has confirmed in its latest Global Climate Highlights report that 2024 was the hottest on record. The study reveals a rise of 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times — defined as the level between 1850 and 1900. Previously, 2023 was the warmest year. At the international climate conference in Paris in 2015, 196 world leaders agreed to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, and to pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees (2.7 Fahrenheit). Samantha Burgess, C3S deputy director told DW that the world is now "teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5-degree level." [ ... ] Scientists working as part of World Weather Attribution, an organization that studies the links between extreme weather and climate change, found that 26 of the events they looked at last year had been made worse or more likely to happen due to rising temperatures. Human burning of fossil fuels for activities such as heating, industry, and transportation is the main driver of global warming, but natural phenomena, like El Niño have also played a part in pushing up temperatures over the past two years, said scientists at C3S. [ ... ] Typically occurring every two to seven years,El Niño is associated with the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to overall average sea surface temperatures that are 0.51 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991 – 2020 average.  Sea surface temperatures are of particular concern to scientists because oceans store around 90% of the heat connected to global warming.

From climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain at the California Institute for Water Resources.

Sadly, things won't be improving over the next four years.

[spiderscribe]

For day 11 of TF Rare Pairing Fest, I present to you “Island Time” ft. TFP Ratchet/Soundwave, because Primus knows both of them deserve a nice relaxing island vacation with each other <3

@tfrarepairing

“No,” says Ratchet.

Soundwave’s head slowly tilts to one side. Ratchet was never as good at reading Soundwave’s nonverbal cues as Megatron and Optimus, but he’s pretty sure that’s either an invitation to elaborate or a physical challenge. Actually, knowing Soundwave, it’s most likely both.

“No,” repeats Ratchet. “I’ve already reserved this island. I even cleared all the details with Agent Fowler, specifically so that no one bothers me during my well-deserved vacation. You’re going to have to find your own island.”

«You’re going to have to find your own island,» is thrown right back in his face.

Ratchet scoffs. “Puh-lease. That may work on your Decepticon troops, but you’ll have to try harder than that if you want to intimidate me. I got here first. Get off my island and find your own.”

Soundwave stares at him, head still tilted consideringly, and then he starts trudging closer towards him. Each step he makes is swallowed up by the soft sand and makes little sound, but Ratchet still senses the deliberate weight he’s putting into every one of his pedesteps. He crosses his arms over his chestplates and glares up into Soundwave’s visor as the other bot comes to a stop right in front of him.

(read the rest on ao3!)

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from Grist:

In 2015, when the countries of the world hammered out the Paris Agreement, they committed to limiting global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and “pursuing efforts” toward keeping them below 1.5 degrees C. The plan didn’t work out so well. Ten years later, the planet might have crossed that lower threshold sooner than expected.

A pair of new studies in the journal Nature Climate Change looked at historical data and came to the conclusion that the record heat last year — the first year to surpass 1.5 degrees C — wasn’t a temporary fluke, but a sign that the world is now soaring past this influential climate target over the long term. The new year continued that upward trajectory. Even as a natural cooling pattern called La Niña took hold recently, January managed to be hotter than ever, clocking in at a record 1.75 degrees C warmer than the preindustrial average. 

One analysis of the two studies warned that Earth had entered a “frightening new phase.” It’s a reflection of the language that has been used around 1.5 C ever since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations-backed team of leading climate experts, wrote an influential report in 2018 on the consequences of exceeding that threshold, which it estimated would happen in 2030. Headlines warned that the world had 12 years to avert climate catastrophe. The line was echoed by the young Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York. So is the world now at the edge of disaster?

Mike Hulme, a professor of human geography at the University of Cambridge, asserts that it isn’t. “There’s no ‘cliff edge’ that emerges from any of the scientific analyses that have been done about these thresholds,” he said. “They are, in many senses, just arbitrary numbers plucked because they are either integers or half of an integer.” 

Hulme, who has been studying the way people think about climate change for decades, argues that an obsession with global temperatures misunderstands why people care about climate change in the first place: They care about how it affects their lives, not abstract readings of the thermometer. He’s also argued that climate advocates should stop chasing a series of “deadlines” to try to drum up enthusiasm for meeting these goals.

Grist spoke with Hulme to learn more about how setting these deadlines can backfire and if there’s a better way to talk about how to make progress on climate change. This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Q.You’ve written that the 1.5 C goal “painted the world into a dangerous corner.” What exactly was dangerous about it? 

A.The danger of this goal is that it was always impossible to achieve — or 99 percent impossible to achieve — 10 years ago. And everybody, I think, who understands both the dynamics of the physical climate system, and also the dynamics of the world energy system, understood that — 1.5 became a campaigning number around which civic groups, activists, and youth entrepreneurs mobilized: “1.5 to stay alive.” It was interpreted as being if 1.5 was breached, then the world either moved into an entirely different physical state that was dangerous compared to 1.4 — or, and this came along later, that somehow 1.5 represents a “tipping point” in the Earth system, which if exceeded, triggers certain feedback mechanisms that cannot be undone. 

Either way, it cultivates an atmosphere of fear. And the danger is, if we’ve transgressed 1.5, the feeling mounts that somehow it’s game over, that we’ve failed in our task to manage the risks of climate change. And that, to some at least, will cultivate cynicism, disillusion, and a loss of focus. These are dangerous emotions. They don’t help with clear-eyed thinking around the difficult politics of climate and energy.

[wyllzel]

Some interesting BG3 build guides I've stumbled upon:

Optimal TB OH Monk by u/Prestigious_Juice341 ➡️ AFAIK, this is the Monk Build Guide 👀

A Comprehensive Paladin Multiclassing Cheatsheet by u/rimgar2345 ➡️ I refer to this one all the time :'D Really helpful and great at breaking down the reasoning!

BG3 Party Building Templates by u/Prestigious_Juice341 ➡️ Super cool guide to creating synergistic parties!!

Really Makes You FEEL Like Batman (Way of Shadow Monk) by u/CCYellow ➡️ This one is just really funny LOL

[nilla-wafer]

[disasterhimbo]

So… when are we gonna do something big about climate change? With the way things are going, it seems like humanity will just try to continue doing things how it’s used to until we go extinct (never mind the many animals that have and will go extinct before and after us).

[capedcaretaker]

agatha who doesn't use her sick days for herself but uses them to take care of rio

[jaggededges123]

*watches the wordcount of my wip go up, and up, and up,,,*

[taegularities]

Is C&F series over? I haven’t read it yet, but I keep seeing spoilers. Do they not get a happy ending?

the main storyline is over, it ended with the epilogue (see masterpost) — i'm just writing and posting bonus chapters now 😁 the next one is the second to last and very angsty, but the story has a happy ending overall!! :)

[sugarcain-sims]

don't call it a comeback (but call it a comeback)

the problem with writing a living challenge is when you change the rules for gens you've already finished you wanna go back and do it again 🙄 it's been a good six months since my last jewels save post (and over a year since the first one) so i'm zipping back to gen 1 with a new matriarch, Bianca !

but this aint the last you've seen of the jewell family,,, not by a long shot,,,

[pulidoshairgel]

that tournament format is kinda weird but im here for more chivas fem games

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from EcoWatch:

Current climate policies are putting the world at a high risk of critical Earth system components reaching tipping points, even if global temperatures return to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average following a period of overshoot.

However, a new study has found that, if global heating is quickly reversed, these risks could be minimized.

The human-caused climate crisis has the potential to cause a destabilization of large-scale elements of Earth systems like ocean circulation patterns, ice sheets and components of the global biosphere. In the study, the researchers examined the risks that future emissions scenarios and current mitigation levels posed to four interconnected tipping elements, a press release from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) said.

The research team determined the risks of tipping for destabilizing a minimum of one of four central climate elements: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Amazon Rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — the Atlantic Ocean’s main ocean current system. All four of these contribute to the regulation of the stability of the planet’s climate. Sudden changes to these biophysical systems can be triggered by global heating, leading to irreversible outcomes.

The report’s analysis explains how important it is to stick to the climate targets laid out in the Paris Agreement, while emphasizing that our current choices will impact the planet for centuries or even millennia.

“Our results show that to effectively limit tipping risks over the coming centuries and beyond, we must achieve and maintain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Following current policies this century would commit us to a high tipping risk of 45% by 2300, even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5°C after a period of overshoot,” said Tessa Möller, co-lead author of the study and a researcher with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)’s Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group, in the press release.

The researchers discovered that tipping risks become substantial by 2300 for several of the future emissions scenarios they assessed. If the average global temperature does not return to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 — even if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are reached — there will be a tipping risk of as much as 24 percent by 2300. This means that in roughly one-quarter of the scenarios that do not return to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, a minimum of one of the tipping elements they considered will have tipped.

“We see an increase in tipping risk with every tenth of a degree of overshoot above 1.5°C. If we were to also surpass 2°C of global warming, tipping risks would escalate even more rapidly. This is very concerning as scenarios that follow currently implemented climate policies are estimated to result in about 2.6°C global warming by the end of this century,” said co-lead author Annika Ernest Högner, also with PIK, in the press release.

“Only a swift warming reversal after overshoot can effectively limit tipping risks. This requires achieving at least net-zero greenhouse gases. Our study underscores that this global mitigation objective, enshrined in Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, is vital for planetary stability,” said Carl Schleussner, one of the authors of the study and a leader with the IIASA Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group, in the press release.

[mxtxfanatic]

Hua Cheng was holding Xie Lian’s hand and spoke up, “Ge ge, next time you see Jun Wu, don’t talk to him, turn around and run away.”

Xie Lian was puzzled, “Why?”

“I just knew that every time he comes looking for you, it’s never for anything good.” Hua Cheng said.

Xie Lian laughed, “What do you mean? The work he originally assigned me wasn’t this.”

However, Hua Cheng said, “It’s the same thing. Whether if it’s going to Mount TongLu or help him manage the heavens, neither are good assignments. The Upper Court is in complete shambles now, might as well let it break up. Throwing that pile of mud on your lap, what’s up with that? It’s no different than choosing between a sword and a knife to commit suicide.”

—Chapt. 143: Gates Open at Mount TongLu; the Assembly of Millions of Demons (Part One)

Don’t brush him off, listen to him!!!

[schumigrace]

carbon credits are not the bad guy !!! emitters are the bad guy !!! nobody should be purchasing carbon credits before reducing their emissions by 90% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! thems literally the *rules

[rotting-guy]

ptit palmarès : antoine est le SEUL streameur fr qui prononce mon pseudo correctement

[bisexual-birdy]

BISEXUAL BIMBO AND A BADASS WOMAN. BEST STRAIGHT PERSON TROPE DONT FIGHT ME