#connecitcut

[thesmegalodon]

Sorry didn't want to crowd that post about Groundhogs, but I recently read a paper about groundhog day and how American groundhogs are more a hodgepodge of unreliability. There is not one Master Groundhog, and it's clear some of these groundhogs are clearly slacking (I jest!)

Famous American groundhog Punxsutawney Phil (from the OG Pennsylvania) has only a 30-40% accuracy rate depending on how long ago you measure. And only a handful of groundhogs (out of 41) are above 50%

Staten Island Chuck and Chuckles (from Connecitcut) are the most consistently accurate groundhogs at 60% with Sir Walter Wally ranks about 58% HOWEVER all 3 are massively outshined by Beardsley Bart (pairie dog) and Sand Mountain Sam (oppossum) at 78% and 75% respectively (José Luiz Martiéz, CT Mirror 2022) Now this gets into "how do you measure if a guess is right" territory for these exact numbers so some of this is all over the place. Wiarton Willie gets reported as having a 25% accuracy rate a 39% accuracy rate (Canadian Encyclopedia) or a 54% accuracy rate (Ross et al 2021)

But the MOST ACCURATE GROUNDHOG is by far the Canadian Oil Springs Ollie with an 83% accuracy rating. The worst is Buckeye Chuck with a 10% accuracy rating who, out of the last 15 or so predictions, was wrong about 14 of them While there was no significant relationship between latitude and correctness when measured, a big problem is that groundhogs actually emerge in March, not Febuary and at least in Canada that means groundhogs have to be woken up to predict the weather or else they live in a zoo and are not out there in nature reporting from the field

It is unlikely any more scientific evaluation of the accuracy of animal meteorologists will be conducted with hard rigour, but it would be fun to see! I hope these Fun Facts were interesting!

^^^ groundhog meteorologist facts for your monday morning

[sovawife]

i need to make margaret selfship connecitcut clark and malfina i said i should make my s/i ap lumber so its like mario and peach

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

I had confidence in the 2024 election because Democrats had a better than expected midterm (they only lost the House by a slim margin, gained a seat in the senate, and held all the improtant secretary of state and attorney general races), but going state by state it's much closer than I'm comfortable with.

Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming are solid red (127/438)

California, Colorado, Connecitcut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington are solid blue (195/438)

Arizona is likely to flip red because Krysten Sinema is unpopular and will split the senate vote as an independent spoiler making the Democrats appear disorganized and distressed, very likely siphoning votes from the presidential candidate (138/438)

Florida is solid red no matter how you slice it. 60-40 if it's DeSantis, 55-45 if it's Trump (168/438)

Georgia could go either way, but I see Republicans flipping it back red because the state legislature will do everything in its power to disenfranchise black voters after they flipped it blue four times, once presidential, thrice senatorial (184/438)

Maine splits its electoral college votes by congressional district. I think three will go blue (198/438) and one red (185/438)

Michigan will probably go blue because Democrats made massive gains in 2022, flipping both houses of the state legislature and maintaining control over the important statewide positions (213/438)

Minnesota is the only state to vote against Ronald Reagan twice, having not gone red since 1972. Republicans made gains in the state legislature, but Democrats were able to flip it back in 2022, so I think the statewide race is solid blue for sure (223/438)

Nebraska, like Maine, splits its votes by district. Even though one district is nominally bluer than the others, I have a feeling all five Nebraska votes will go red (190/438)

Nevada could go either way. Democrats held the senate and secretary of state races but lost the governorship. I'd tentatively call it blue, but we won't know the results until a week or two after election day, so let's instead say it's undecided.

New Hampshire could go either way, but leans blue even though both houses of the legislature and the governorship went red. it's very small, so it's unlikely to play kingmaker one way or the other (227/438)

North Carolina is red. it'll be close, maybe 49-51, but close only counts in horseshoes. it has a blye governor, but the legislature is gerrymandered deep red and the regularly override his vetoes. The NC Supreme Court said its electoral maps were unconstitutional in 2022, but the legislature used them anyways, so not even the highest authority in the state could stop them from fucking over the people. It'll be red with very lower turnout (206/438)

Ohio is deep red, not even a contest. It's the worst of Florida and North Carolina, illegal maps, deep red gerrymander, total clusterfuck shitshow (223/438)

Pennsylvania will probably go blue because Democrats flipped the senate and one house of the legislature in 2022 (246/438)

Texas is red. See Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio (263/438)

Virginia is entirely up in the air. I can't make a prediction one way or the other until we see how the state legislature races go this fall. Democrats have a razor thin majority in the senate, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the house, so this November will decide who has the advantage going into 2024. They have a deep red governor, but two blue senators and a consistently blue presidential track record sine 2008. I don't know.

Wisconsin will probably go blue because Democrats managed to hold onto the secretary of state and attorney general seats in 2022, and flipped the state Supreme Court blue just a few months ago. Republicans have majorities in both houses due to gerrymandering, but statewide the Democrats have the advantage (256/438)

Oh dear. Neither party had 270 votes, and Nevada and Virginia are going to be the kingmakers.

If Dems win both, they win 275-263.

If Republicans win both, they win 282-256.

If Republicans win Virginia but not Nevada, they still win 276-262

If Democrats win Virginia but not Nevada, the electoral college is tied 269-269. It would be up to the House to pick a president in a contingent election, though there's no telling how many faithless electors would flip either way.

This is going to be a real nailbiter. No two presidential elections have ever gone the exact same way. There's no way it'll be a repeat of 2020; one or more state will flip, it's just a matter of which. If Dems can hold Arizona or Georgia, they're golden. That's really what it's gonna come down to, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Virginia. Democrats could take back the House, but Republicans will almost certainly take back the Senate, which means Game Over no matter who wins the presidency.

If Biden wins, he gets no more judges, zero, zilch, nada.

If Trump or DeSantis win, God have mercy on us all.

[wysteriadelights]

so while working on Sebek i was so enamored with him cause I am one of Sebek's biggest fans and i just. had to. draw me and him as the connecitcut clark meme. dont ask me why. just take it. this will never see the light of day on main.

[dizzymcguire]

everyone walks around in eyeglasses.

some smudged and scuffed,

some with broken or missing frames,

some with tints of rose or blue.

the world you see

is not the world I see.

the world I see

is not worth looking at

mostly.

there are many sets of eyes

casting back the sunlight

like a racing river at sunrise.

there are many sets of eyes

that seem to swallow everything they see

and give back only questions

like a blackhole.

Oedipus may have been onto something,

however,

I'd really rather not fuck my mother

to find out.

[ihaveavoicex]

abandoned insane asylum in Connecticut.

[bubblemilke]

a lil homey

[photo creds to me <3]

[fromthe-point]

NCAA DI Commitments - Mar.20

University of Alaska (WCHA): 2019-20 Harrison Israels, F || Oakville Blades (OJHL)

Bemidji State University (NCHC): 2019-20 Donte Lawson, F || Minnesota Wilderness (NAHL)

University of Connecticut (HEA): 2020-21 Tabor Heaslip, F || Avon Old Farms School (USHS-Prep)

Minnesota State University Mankato (WCHA): 2019-20 Brendan Furry, F || Tri-City Storm (USHL)

[pinklemonwitch]

One last photo set of this beautiful night before the sun officially sets ❤️

[bikerlovertexas]

CT STATE POLICE Motorcycle #5 by Len Widener Via Flickr: TFC Guimond of Troop-L, on his CSP Harley Davidson. Motorcycle reg 721-981.

[buyatpremier]

Join Us In Giving A Big 𝐇𝐀𝐏𝐏𝐘 𝐁𝐈𝐑𝐓𝐇𝐃𝐀𝐘 Shout Out To Our President And General Manager Of Premier Auto Group 👏🎉 #happybirthday @buyatpremier #premiersubaru #premiersubaruwatertown #premierkiact #mykiaparts #subarupartswarehouse #connecitcut #subaru #kia #dealerships (at Premier Subaru) https://www.instagram.com/p/CNAxHGGA3Kg/?igshid=1i5pfbheruy10

[marc-clamage]

West Beach, Stamford 2019.

[jimmychuphotography]

Last call🍷 : Photography: @jimmychuphotography Floral & Event Design: @enza.events Venue: @loadingdockevents @_j212 : : : : : : : : #jewishwedding #manhattanbride #connecitcut #rusticwedding #brideandgroom #weddingdress #luxurywedding #mazeltov #caratsandcake #destinationphotographer #weddingphotographer #brooklynweddings #weddingvenue #rusticdecor #jimmychuphotography #newylweds #hudsonvalleyweddingphotographer #vscowedding #connecticutweddingphotographer #weddingplanning #weddingflowers #theknot #weddingflorist #photojournalists #upstatenywedding #mixedwedding #nyweddingphotographer (at The Loading Dock) https://www.instagram.com/p/B7Rlb8sFfl6/?igshid=1bq6t8xrzbdqo

[darkhighlandgreen]

Shelby Cobra 289  Lime Rock Park Connecticut 

[seventsm]

For all of my creative friends still at the university of Connecticut! Come out to this event!