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newmusickarl · 4 months ago

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Mercury Music Prize 2024: Ranking The Contenders

My favourite time of year has arrived – the season of the Mercury Music Prize. Back in July, the twelve albums nominated for the 2024 prize were revealed and, as ever, served up a highly diverse and eclectic list of some of the best British and Irish music released over the last 12 months. Each of these nominated records is now vying for the prestigious title of Album of the Year, the overriding criteria for which has greatly deviated throughout the award’s history.

In terms of the competition, last year felt like a big watershed moment. With myself and many others previously writing off the jazz nomination as soon as the annual shortlist is announced, Ezra Collective’s pleasantly surprising victory set a new precedence for the prize – any album can win. Not only that, but this year’s Mercury Prize shortlist presents arguably the most open contest for some years, making it almost impossible to predict. But hey – let’s try and predict it anyway!

As I do each year, I’ve now listened to all 12 albums and tried to rank them based on what I think are their chances of winning. To be clear, this is not a “Worst-to-Best” countdown – this ranking is based solely on how likely I think they are to win the overall prize.

To determine this, I’ve considered:

The impact and artistic achievement attained by the album

The popularity of the artist

The level of critical acclaim the album has received

How similar albums have fared over the years

All clear? Good!

Without further ado, here’s my final thoughts and analysis on this year’s nominees.

12. Lives Outgrown by Beth Gibbons

The debut solo album from the Portishead frontwoman is an absorbing work, a heavy listen that can be tricky to love at first but will eventually win you over. It’s certainly won the critics over too, becoming one of the most positively reviewed albums of the year thus far.

So why bottom of the list? Well for me, Beth has several factors working against her. Firstly, she’s a well-established artist who wouldn’t gain much from earning Mercury Prize recognition this late into her career. Secondly, and most importantly, she’s a former Mercury Prize winner, having lifted the trophy with Portishead’s Dummy back in 1995.

There’s only ever been one two-time winner in the prize’s history (PJ Harvey for those wondering) and at this juncture in her career, I personally don’t see Beth becoming the second person to achieve this feat – particularly given the strength of some of the debutants on this year’s shortlist.

11. Bad With Names by Corto.alto

Having already been so familiar with a lot of the records on this year’s shortlist, this debut from Glaswegian multi-instrumentalist Liam Shortall has been my favourite discovery through this year's prize. Recorded in his bedroom, it’s a mesmerising collision of jazz and electronic music that is genuinely unique and pulls you back in for repeated listens.

However, why it is so far down on my list is mainly due to Ezra Collective winning the prize last year. Whilst this album from Corto.alto isn’t solely a jazz project, of all the records on the list it is the one that falls the most into that genre. While Ezra Collective historically bucked the trend last year of jazz records never prevailing and winning the overall prize, another longstanding trend is that Mercury Prize wins rarely come from the same genre in back-to-back years. So, with a jazz record taking home the trophy last year, it makes me think the judges will go in a different direction in 2024.

10. On Purpose, With Purpose by Ghetts

The fourth studio album from the acclaimed, MOBO-award winning rapper, On Purpose, With Purpose is an ambitious project that showcases Ghetts' prowess for strong storytelling and cutting social commentary. It also features a stacked list of collaborators, including Mercury Prize alumni Kano and Sampha.

Now Ghetts is one of the few artists on this year’s shortlist who has been nominated for the Mercury Prize previously, having been shortlisted for the 2021 prize with Conflict of Interest. While recent history would suggest this could work in his favour (Little Simz and Michael Kiwanuka both won on their second and third times of trying), I feel this is a weaker effort compared to Conflict of Interest. Not only that but it seems fans and critics agree, with this album one of the lowest scoring on review aggregate site albumoftheyear.org. With this being the case, this is one I am filing under unlikely to win.

9. Early Twenties by Cat Burns

Talk about sneaking in there – this debut album from British singer-songwriter Cat Burns was released on the 12th of July this year, the final day for eligible entries into the 2024 prize. Obviously the judges would have listened to it before that date though, and they were clearly taken in by the record’s uplifting pop melodies and soul-baring lyricism.

Now, there actually isn’t too much working against Cat Burns when it comes to winning the overall prize. It is a debut album which always fair well and she’s also had good success in recent years with critic-led awards, having come fourth in the BBC Sound of 2023 and earning three Brit Award nominations just last year.

However, with the late release date you do wonder if the album would have had chance to make an impact on the judging panel in the same way as some of the other records on this list. Additionally, the album hasn’t had too long to make an impact culturally on the wider music world either, which leads me to think this is another album that is unlikely to prevail.

8. Who Am I by BERWYN

Like Ghetts, British rapper, producer and songwriter BERWYN is another artist who has been on the shortlist before, having also been nominated in 2021 for his impressively raw mixtape, Demotape/Vega. Now back with what is being billed as his debut studio album, WHO AM I is a powerful force that is as lyrically spellbinding as it is emotionally impactful.

However unlike Ghetts, BERWYN for me actually has a lot pulling for him. Again it’s another debut, he’s a previous nominee and rap records have typically done well in recent years (see wins from Little Simz, Dave and Skepta). So why is it only 8th on the list I hear you ask? Well, I think it simply boils down to there being some stronger records on this list that you can argue are more deserving. Whilst a BERWYN win (or a BER-WIN if you want to be cheesy) is certainly possible, my gut tells me its also improbable given the strength of the field.

7. Black Rainbows by Corinne Bailey Rae

A record that made my own year-end list back in December finishing an impressive 16th, Black Rainbows is one of the most acclaimed albums on this year’s shortlist. Inspired by an exhibition on Black history by artist Theaster Gates at the Stony Island Arts Bank in Chicago, the album is a mesmerising collage of eclectic sounds that range from soul and R&B to frantic garage rock and sprawling electronica.

Corinne is also a previous nominee, having had her sophomore record The Sea shortlisted for the 2010 prize. Given the love and acclaim Black Rainbows has received too, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Corinne announced as the winner on the night.

However given the other nominees, my gut instinct says the judges may favour a newer artist, with Corinne almost in the same category as Beth Gibbons as already being too well established at this point. Whilst a Mercury win would certainly be deserving, my instincts are telling me this likely won’t be Corinne’s year.

6. When Will We Land? by Barry Can’t Swim

An album I’m personally a massive fan of and would love to see win tomorrow night. When Will We Land, the debut from Scottish musician and producer Joshua Mainnie AKA Barry Can’t Swim, is a vibrant and joyous experience like no other. Filled with a globe-trotting mix of sonic influences and textures, it is an incredible debut that has cemented Barry Can’t Swim as a household name in the electronic music world over the last year.

Now much like jazz albums, electronic records are good at getting nominated, but rarely do they win. In fact, you have to go all the way back to James Blake’s win in 2013 for Overgrown to find the last triumph from the popular genre. So not only is an electronic record long overdue a win, Barry’s debut has had such an impact in the space, not just for him but for the genre on the whole, it would be a well-received victory.

That said, as much as I would love Barry to walk away the overall prize winner, I think his chances are sadly fewer than some of the others on this year’s shortlist.

5. Silence Is Loud by Nia Archives

We’re into the real contenders now and this debut from record producer, DJ and singer-songwriter Nia Archives is certainly in with a chance. Heralded for its groundbreaking fusion of Jungle and Britpop with sincere lyricism at the heart, it’s an album that is truly unlike any other released in 2024.

With Nia such a trailblazer and pioneer for this Jungle revival that British music is now seeing, not just bringing the genre back to the fore but moving it forward as well, you have to wonder if Nia will get the nod in the same way Skepta won in 2016 for Konnichiwa. While that was arguably not the best record on the shortlist that year, it seemed like the judges were keen to recognise Skepta’s impact on the British rap and grime scene, helping to really bring it to a worldwide audience. I could easily see this reasoning repeated and with Nia’s record a debut too, it’s definitely one of the frontrunners in this very open contest.

Again, the only thing working against a Silence Is Loud win is the impact and quality of the others on the shortlist.

4. Brat by Charli XCX

An album that needs no introduction at this point. Let’s face it, has there been a British record in the last five years – or even decade - that has had as big of a cultural impact, in such a short space of time too, than Charli XCX’s Brat?

Although only released in June, the album has already cemented itself as one of the defining albums of 2024, and indeed the 2020s. From the iconic green artwork that has inspired festival fashion to instantly iconic lyrics entering the internet zeitgeist, to even politicians using the album’s lore in their political campaigns - the last few months have truly been a “brat summer”.

As we look ahead to tomorrow, Brat is currently the bookie’s favourite to take home the prize. In any other year, I would discount Charli simply for being too commercially successful and the judges tending to favour lesser-known artists when it comes to granting the overall prize. While I still ultimately think that will be the case, there is also a part of me that thinks the judges may see the impact of Brat and think it would be crazy to not award it the title of Album of the Year. In addition to this, Brat has received extreme acclaim too from critics, so it would be an incredibly popular win.

Back in 2006, Arctic Monkeys had the fastest-selling debut album ever at that time and as a result, would go on to win the Mercury Prize that year. Commercially successful albums winning when they’ve achieved cultural significance isn’t unheard of throughout the history of the Mercury Prize, so don’t be surprised if Charli walks away with it tomorrow - despite being one of the biggest popstars on the planet right now.

3. Prelude To Ecstasy by The Last Dinner Party

Speaking of fast-selling debuts, upon it’s release back in February, Prelude To Ecstasy became the UK's biggest first week-selling debut album in nine years. Considering the buzz surrounding it, this came as no surprise as there are few bands as vehemently discussed as The Last Dinner Party. Yet in many ways they still feel slightly underappreciated, often criticised for the wrong reasons. When you focus on the musicianship of the record itself, there are few debut albums as anthemic, as dazzling and as accomplished as Prelude To Ecstasy.

Much like Brat, The Last Dinner Party’s debut feels like one of the defining records of the last 12 months and although also commercially successful, you could see the critic darlings crowned the overall winners for that reason. They are also less established than Charli, so may feel like a compromise as they are still technically a “new” artist. However, you also feel the judges may recognise awarding the London quintet the overall prize may sadly have an adverse effect, leaving them prone to more criticism and intense scrutiny from their naysayers.

This again makes me think the judges will ultimately go in a different direction, but personally I think this record deserves all the praise and awards in the world. Without a doubt, one of the year’s finest albums.

2. This Could Be Texas by English Teacher

Into the top two then and now we have arrived at the two albums I think have the best chance of winning the overall prize tomorrow. One is a choice of head, the other is a choice of heart.

If I’m going with my head, everything points me in the direction of this debut album from rock quartet, English Teacher. Hugely acclaimed, particularly by the British music press, it’s an album that has captivated due to it’s soaring originality, poetic lyrics and broad eclecticism. In fact, when you look at the genres that typically make up the Mercury Prize shortlist each year – rock, jazz, electronic, pop, soul, R&B, folk, punk and post-punk – This Could Be Texas has a little bit of all of that.

This for me is a record tailor-made to win the Mercury Prize. It is a debut album, from a band that is still up-and-coming, that would benefit massively from the greater exposure, and an album which will surely tick a lot of boxes for the diverse music tastes on the judging panel.

It’s also interesting to note that there is a strong Leeds/Bradford contingent on this year’s shortlist, with a quarter of the artists nominated heralding from the area – which makes me think the winner is likely to come from one of those three albums. So, if you’re a betting person and are still trying to decide where to put your money, my head says English Teacher’s debut is the album to back.

1. Crazymad, For Me by CMAT

But that is what my head says, my heart says something different. While a good part of me thinks English Teacher is the one to prevail tomorrow, the one I am really rooting for is Crazymad For Me by Irish singer-songwriter, Ciara Mary-Alice Thompson – AKA, CMAT.

Having finished as my 12th favourite Album of 2023, it’s a record that I still find myself frequently returning to almost a year later. In fact, if I was to redo that list today, it would be in the Top 5. This is because with each new spin it feels more and more like a modern classic, with songs like California, Rent, Where Are Your Kids Tonight and, of course, Stay For Something, all timeless in nature.

It’s not just me with a great affection for this record either. It’s another album that has seen huge love and acclaim over the last year, even getting nominated for the Irish Choice Prize back in March. Which brings me onto another important point regarding CMAT’s album within wider Mercury Prize folklore, and that is the fact that an Irish artist is still yet to win the overall prize. That’s right, despite plenty of nominations throughout the 30+ years it has been granted, an Irish artist is still yet to take home the coveted Album of the Year title.

So, with a jazz record finally winning in 2023 and bucking the long-standing trend, surely it is time for an Irish artist to be recognised as the overall winner. At a time as well where Irish music is thriving – just look at recent albums from the likes of Fontaines D.C., Kneecap, Sprints, NewDad and The Murder Capital, to name just a few – it feels like the right time. With CMAT’s incredibly infectious and warm personality, as well as her clear love for music, performing and mastering her songcraft, I couldn’t think of a more deserving person and artist to make this little piece of history.

That’s my thoughts anyway ahead of the annual ceremony tomorrow night; I guess we’ll soon find out as always just how close – or not close – I was with my predictions. Best of luck to all the artists and as ever, I look forward to watching!

Watch the 2024 Mercury Prize be presented on BBC Four tomorrow night from 8pm.