TYWIN LANNISTER, Lord of Casterly Rock, Warden of the West, Shield of Lannisport,
His wife, [LADY JOANNA], a cousin, died in childbed,
Their children:
SER JAIME, called the Kingslayer, a twin to Cersei,
QUEEN CERSEI, wife of King Robert I Baratheon, a twin to Jaime,
TYRION, called the Imp, a dwarf,
His siblings:
SER KEVAN, his eldest brother,
His wife, DORNA, of House Swyft,
Their eldest son, LANCEL, squire to the king,
Their twin sons, WILLEM and MARTYN,
Their infant daughter, JANEI,
GENNA, his sister, wed to Ser Emmon Frey,
Their son, SER CLEOS FREY,
Their son, TION FREY, a squire,
[SER TYGETT], his second brother, died of a pox,
His widow, DARLESSA, of House Marbrand,
Their son, TYREK, squire to the king,
[GERION], his youngest brother, lost at sea,
His bastard daughter, JOY, a girl of ten,
Their cousin, SER STAFFORD LANNISTER, brother to the late Lady Joanna,
His daughters, CERENNA and MYRIELLE,
His son, SER DAVEN LANNISTER,
His counselor, MAESTER CREYLEN,
His chief knights and lords bannermen:
LORD LEO LEFFORD,
SER ADDAM MARBRAND,
SER GREGOR CLEGANE, the Mountain That Rides,
SER HARYS SWYFT, father by marriage to Ser Kevan,
LORD ANDROS BRAX,
SER FORLEY PRESTER,
SER AMORY LORCH,
VARGO HOAT of the Free City of Qohor, a sellsword.
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WHAT IF Robb Stark heeded good advice? Part 3
I'm back, lions and leopards. Your baby-eating deviant Lannistan is back, continuing the alternate timeline of "the North wins the war in this one." See Part 1: Things to do differently, and Part 2: How is that working out?
Where we left off: King Robb has a dawning realization that Lord Tywin isn't really fighting him on the battlefield. Everyone knows Stannis Baratheon is on his way to besiege King's Landing, and Robb understands King Stannis wouldn't be any more amenable to an independent North than the current Lannister regime is now. No matter who wins the battle, the Freys will probably turn cloak, and Robb can't afford that. He needs to have a productive discussion of terms before the siege, and the best candidate for that discussion is Acting King's Hand Tyrion.
King Robb's entourage will include:
His mother, Catelyn, who's proven an astute advisor, and has recent up-close experience with Tyrion.
Uncle Edmure, soon to become Lord of Riverrun.
Ser Stevron Frey is still alive in this one because they didn't attack Oxcross, so he didn't take a wound. He's the heir to the Crossing.
Lord Greatjon Umber, lord of Last Hearth and King Robb's fiercest supporter.
Ser Wylis Manderly, heir to New Castle.
Lady Maege Mormont of Bear Island.
Theon Greyjoy, heir to Pyke.
Their hostage Ser Jaime Lannister, the shiny thing to dangle in Tyrion's face.
Lady Brienne of Tarth, Lady Catelyn's sworn sword there to keep Ser Jaime in line.
There are probably some other people I should include in the team. I think it's definitely in King Robb's interest to bring this bunch, at least.
Team shows up at the Red Keep! If I were Robb, I'd give Ser Jaime several good meals along the trip and a bath, shave and clean clothes just before they let Tyrion see him.
Now this doesn't mean they're releasing Jaime into his brother's custody effective immediately. It means a prisoner exchange is on the table. They've brought him this far as a gesture of good faith.
...and in the spirit of good faith, Robb and Catelyn would like to see Sansa and Arya.
So Tyrion's all like, yes, of course. Here's Sansa! See, she's fine, we're taking good care of her!
Yes, good, and, what about Arya?
And Tyrion starts making shit up about Arya being such a trickster, always playing hide-and-seek, and this one time she didn't turn up for supper and it took the septa SEVEN HOURS to find her...
Cue the record scratch, freeze frame on Tyrion: "You must be wondering how I got here."
In all seriousness, the Starks' first suspicion is that Arya's dead and the Lannisters know it. Shit's about to get real, and Sansa starts making noises because she doesn't want to see her mom, big brother, and uncle get slaughtered or locked in cells. At some point Brienne gets in the middle of the fray and shockwaves everyone out to the edges.
Long story somewhat shorter: Tyrion insists they WANT to give Arya back to her family and they have people on the case of FINDING HER, and there's no reason to think she's dead. Sansa corroborates enough to tell the Starks it's still possible for Arya to turn up alive and the Lannisters aren't hiding her.
Back to the war camp outside the city walls. They let Tyrion sweat for a few days while Robb argues about terms and tactics with his team. Ultimately! Catelyn convinces her son that they still need to conclude the war sooner rather than later. Back to the Red Keep!
THIS TIME, as they know the Lannisters only have one of the girls to trade for Jaime, the Starks are in a stronger position.
From Tyrion's position: He's not convinced that Northern independence is even tenable, much less if they take the Riverlands with them. He's even less convinced there's any version of splitting the kingdom that his father would honor in the long term. He sees his assignment as getting Jaime safely home, and convincing the Starks to bend the knee, in that order.
With Team Stark at the table, Tyrion's questions are:
The Wall. Robb says yes, of course, it'll be the North's responsibility to maintain the Night's Watch. If men from the southern provinces want to volunteer for the Watch, they're granted safe passage through the North, but the Iron Throne is under no obligation. If the Wall is inadequately guarded and maintained, the North will bear the brunt of wildling raids.
Right, about that? Tyrion visited the Wall and hung out with men of the Watch and he'd like to know: what happens if the danger beyond the Wall is something much worse than a bunch of ragged people they don't like? How does the southern kingdom trust the North to protect everyone from a Snow Zombie invasion?
Robb's handwaving away that concern, but Tyrion has his reservations. He puts that one aside and moves on to:
The freaking Riverlands, I tell you. That's a problem. They want to take the center out of the kingdom? How are the other regions supposed to accept that?
Well, his daddy should've thought about that---
Yes, yes, his father ravaged the center of the kingdom, and it was easy. Of course once an agreement is reached, they'll withdraw their army from the Trident, yes. And how does the North intend to protect the Riverlands from invasion by other regional armies? It's either an independent kingdom, or not. That's the part where Ser Stevron and Uncle Edmure start asking to speak to King Robb in the next room.
After a tense discussion away from Tyrion, Robb comes back and assures him they'll have no problem with civilian travel through the Riverlands and of course they'll be responsible for protection. Edmure and Stevron still seem nervous but Tyrion is ready to move on.
If the new kingdom has a poor harvest and abrupt winter, they realize they can't ask the Iron Throne for food aid? They can buy food shipments from the Reach, sure, but if they can't pay for it, then they'll just have to suffer the famine. Which brings us back to the Wall.
If the Iron Throne gets word of a non-human threat coming from beyond the Wall, and the North has failed to support the Night's Watch enough to contain the threat, that's a problem for the entire continent. Again, Robb insists the Snow Zombies are long gone.
So Tyrion asks: But what if they're not long gone? If the Snow Zombies come back, and the North has failed to maintain the Wall, whether from hardship or disinclination, then the entire continent is in danger, and how does the North expect the southern kingdom to respond? The point is that if the North fails to protect the continent from supernatural threats, then its independence is null and void and the IT will re-annex the entire goddamn territory. Robb says okay, that's fine, because he is entirely sure the Snow Zombies aren't coming.
What about the Iron Islands? Are they part of the new independent Northern kingdom? No, they'll be another independent kingdom on their own. Oh really? So if the isles raid the North/Riverlands, they're prepared to deal with the attacks and not seek the Iron Throne's aid? Theon insists his dad won't do that. To which Tyrion feels like:
BUT SERIOUSLY, these terms aren't only applicable to the near future. When the current players' grandchildren are ruling their kingdoms, and the isles go raiding the Northern kingdom, then...?
13. So that's when Maege Mormont pulls Robb aside and there's another discussion behind the nearest closed door. They come back in looking moderately twitchy. Robb assures Tyrion he and his vassals will arrange their own safeguards against attacks from the isles.
14. Speaking of which! About the Ironborn currently attacking the west? They'll need to withdraw before the North gets any sort of agreement from the Lannisters. And if they want their own independence, they'll need to send a delegation down to KL to negotiate their own terms. Theon says yeah, okay, they'll do that. Tyrion says furthermore, if the isles go on attacking any of the southern provinces, and the North enables them in any way...the North's independence is null and void. Robb agrees, of course they will not enable the isles to raid the mainland. Tyrion continues that it goes without saying (but he's saying it anyway) that if the North/Riverlands attacks the southern kingdom, they will be re-annexed with extreme prejudice. Robb assures him they don't want any more war.
15. By this point, Tyrion's thinking he can actually get on board with splitting the kingdom. It's probably not sustainable past five years into the coming winter, but he's prepared to let them try it. There's still the matter of how much longer he'll be Acting King's Hand. He says to Robb, a treaty won't do them any good if his father rips it up. There's also the risk of Stannis taking over, and if he does, there's no way of knowing if he'll honor the treaty. (Catelyn knows.) The only assurance Tyrion can offer in that area is that if Stannis wins, and he doesn't honor the treaty, then the Starks don't have to pay tribute to the Iron Throne. Yes, they will be expected to make payments, which Tyrion is willing to divide into easily manageable amounts by spreading them over the next 200 years or so. Consider it 1) clean-up fee for their allies attacking the Westerlands, 2) restitution for forcing the Lannisters to divide their army whilst dealing with Stannis, and 3) insurance against Wall collapse. Fair or not, there's no way Tywin will honor the treaty if it doesn't include some sort of recompense. Even there, Tyrion offers an alternative: the Starks summon their army to KL to ally with the Lannisters against Stannis. Catelyn pulls her son aside and tells him: just make the payments. Their family can renegotiate the amounts with the next king or Hand.
16. With that much agreed, here's the procedure. First, the Starks exchange Tyrion's brother for Robb's sister before they leave the city, or there's no treaty. Second, they contact their allies in the west and demand immediate withdrawal. The treaty isn't valid until the invaders are gone. Finally, Tyrion promises to keep his agents searching for Arya, and if she turns up alive, they'll escort her back to Winterfell. HOWEVER: if Tywin honors the treaty, Cersei is likely to demand a hostage, and her demand will be supplied. So, the Starks need to prepare to say goodbye to another family member.
17. There are more prisoners of war on both sides. They'll stay where they are until after the battle. If Stannis wins...then, that'll be one of the less dangerous discussions the Starks will have with him.
18. The prisoner exchange is a joyous event. Sansa can't stop hugging her fam. Tyrion sticks Jaime in a tower cell in Maegor's Holdfast until he promises to hide in the secret tunnels during the battle. To their shock and horror, Cersei agrees with Tyrion that Jaime should sit out the battle after his months of being chained to a wall in Riverrun. Jaime promises to stay out of the fighting, just to make his siblings happy. And then when the battle begins, he disguises himself like a common man-at-arms and he goes out and fights. His presence on the field prevents Ser Mandon Moore from making his murder attempt on Tyrion. WHICH MEANS, Tyrion doesn't take any serious injuries during the battle, he isn't bedridden for days afterward, and his daddy can't railroad him out of the discussion following their victory. Things are getting twitchy between Jaime and Cersei.
19. The Starks send ravens to their allies in the west, followed by messengers in case the ravens don't make it, instructing withdrawal from the territory. Rickard Karstark doesn't like the news, as he still insists on killing Ser Jaime. Robb starts by reminding him of his surviving son Harrion, prisoner of the Lannister army, and follows by promising execution for insubordination. The Ironborn withdraw from the west, just in time for the Starks to get the heck out of Dodge before Stannis sails into Blackwater Bay. They ride back up to Riverrun and hold their breath for a resolution.
20. Tywin isn't exactly "happy" about the independence treaty, but he honors it because the war has already cost them huge amounts of gold, grain harvest, and lives. Tribute payments are welcome news. Cersei demands a hostage from the Starks, as promised. The Starks pause at the Twins on the way back to Winterfell so Robb can marry some giddy young she-weasel as they'd previously agreed. Nobody's head gets sewn onto a direwolf. Harrion Karstark goes home with his dad and Gawen Westerling goes home to the Crag.
21. The Starks roll up to Winterfell with Robb's new bride beside him and Brienne still serving Catelyn. Nobody's invaded or burned the castle. Theon is still their hostage and has all his appendages fully attached. There's the joyous reunion with Bran and Rickon, though Arya's absence is still heavy in the air. It's even more bittersweet when the raven arrives with Cersei's demand of a hostage. They're trying to convince Cersei to accept a sibling of the she-weasel, and Cersei is not having it. She demands one of Robb's family of birth, or she will claim his firstborn child. Just as the family are almost ready to accept they'll have to send Rickon to the Red Keep, Sandor Clegane rides up to the castle gates with Arya. There's another joyful reunion, and after rolling around in a pile of hugs and kisses with her children, Catelyn makes a decision: she will be the hostage. Brienne accompanies her to the Red Keep, where Cat releases her from service. Cersei is satisfied.
Now winter is coming and the North has its independence. It'll stay that way as long as they can keep the Riverlands secure. And as long as Balon Greyjoy behaves himself. And they have enough grain and salt beef to keep their people fed through the winter. And as long as the Wall doesn't crack. Sure, they've got it from there.
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Ser Tywin was but twenty, the youngest man ever to serve as Hand, but the manner in which he had dealt with the rising of the Reynes and Tarbecks had made him well respected, even feared, throughout the Seven Kingdoms.
-WOIAF, The Westerlands
Tywin built his reputation on the destruction of Houses Reyne and Tarbeck. The Reynes were the most powerful bannermen to the Lannisters, and by Ellyn’s times, the Reyne-Tarbeck alliance sought to supplant their overlords. Tywin crushed them on behalf of House Lannister as well as for personal reasons. Tywin would then go on to enact similar ambitions in trying to marry is daughter into his liege’s house, and then overthrow them when that fell through, making his daughter a queen, doing successfully what the Reynes tried and failed to do.
Tywald Lannister had long been betrothed to the Red Lion's spirited young sister, Lady Ellyn. This strong-willed and hot-tempered maiden, who had for years anticipated becoming the Lady of Casterly Rock, was unwilling to forsake that dream.
. . .
Ellyn Reyne was accused of bedding Tytos Lannister, urging him to set aside his wife and marry her instead.
. . .
Old, rich, and powerful, the Reynes had prospered greatly from Lord Tytos's misrule. Roger Reyne, the Red Lion, was widely feared for his skill at arms; many considered him the deadliest sword in the westerlands. His brother, Ser Reynard, was as charming and cunning as Ser Roger was swift and strong.
-WOIAF, The Westerlands
Tywin for all his hatred of House Reyne, managed to find himself siring another generation of Reynes with his own children: the eldest son who is a prodigious warrior with a hot temper, the second son who isn’t noted for his martial prowess, but his cunning as a political operator, and the “strong-willed and hot-tempered,” ambitious daughter leading the trio who uses seduction to achieve her political ambitions and seeks to become the head of state.
Robert Baratheon, like Tytos Lannister, proved to be a poor ruler who had gone to seed, avoiding dealing with problems and affairs of state with the Lannisters taking advantage of his negligence and expanding their power and influence at court.
Ellyn of House Reyne became the Lady of Casterly Rock in all but name.
As her good-father retreated to his books and his bedchamber, Lady Ellyn held a splendid court, staging a series of magnificent tourneys and balls and filling the Rock with artists, mummers, musicians...and Reynes. Her brothers Roger and Reynard were ever at her side, and offices, honors, and lands were showered upon them, and upon her uncles, cousins, and nephews and nieces as well.
-WOIAF, The Westerlands
Cersei upon becoming Queen Regent and Tywin became Hand again, proceeded to shower their family with offices, honors and lands. Cersei promoted Jaime to Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, kicking Barristan out. Tywin gave Riverrun to his good-brother Emmon Frey, Darry to his nephew Lancel and intended to give Winterfell to his son Tyrion.
Within the fortnight, Ellyn Reyne was wed to Walderan Tarbeck, Lord of Tarbeck Hall, the florid fifty-five-year-old widowed lord of an ancient, honorable, but impoverished house.
Lord Walderan Tarbeck, Ellyn’s husband, is described as on old man with the same house colors (blue and silver) as House Frey who allies with the rebellious house with a lion sigil. The Freys are a foil to Tarbecks where in place of “ancient, honorable but impoverished” are relatively new, treacherous, and one of the richest and most powerful houses in the riverlands. Walder Frey chose to ally with the Lannisters to rebel against his overlords King Robb Stark and Lord Edmure Tully, and is now effectively the de facto Lord Paramount of the Trident and when Littlefinger dies, Cersei may make it de jure.
However, the Reynes for all their faults were still united in their cause while Tywin’s authoritarian and abusive style of ruling over his family resulted in factionalism and ultimately, an intrahouse civil war. Cersei being abusive in her relationships, isolates both her most able brother, Tyrion, resulting him going over to their house’s former liege lords, the Targaryens, and Jaime, with him wanting to remove her. That is without saying that she is driving her house into the ground, wrecking Lannister’s support. Walder violated guest right, making his house universally hated, especially among his neighbors and in a bad spot when things inevitably go south for the Lannisters. His style not being that different from Tywin’s, combined with his numerous brood, created a situation where factionalism and an intrahouse civil war are inevitable.
The Reyne-Tarbeck coalition was undone by the son of their overlord, Tywin, as he crushed both houses. The daughter of their late Targaryen monarch, Daenerys, comes to put an end to House Lannister’s schemes, and Lady Stoneheart, the daughter of Walder’s late overlord Hoster Tully, enacts vengeance on his house. Assisting the former is as Genna put it “Tywin’s son” in every sense, Tyrion who like his father before is itching for payback for a lifetime of slights and abuse against him.
The ambitions of the Reynes and Tarbecks resulted in their destruction and their lines extinguished. House Lannister and Frey at first seem to have succeeded where the Reynes and Tarbecks seemed to fail, but their summer shall be short-lived as winter has come. Their sins of greed, pride and wrath shall be answered with their works going up in flames.
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