#bet against me

[oneatlatime]

Let's look back at my season 2 predictions!

When I got to the halfway point of season 2, I made a post detailing my predictions for where the rest of the season was going. They were delightfully subjective and conformed more to my hopes than to any legitimate foreshadowing.

I made 9 predictions (one per main character), and then I predicted three ways that the finale could go. I went into some detail in some of my predictions, so I'd recommend checking out the linked post. Keep in mind that I made these predictions before the Ba Sing Se arc started, and it shows.

For Azula, I predicted that she would be the finale's big bad, that she would be defeated, and that the Fire Lord would be introduced as next season's big bad. I'm giving myself one third of a point for this one. Azula was indeed the big bad.

For Toph, I predicted that she would get a subplot that revolved around either something she excelled at being challenged by an external force like those wrestling idiots, or something that she needed to work on that tied into her noble background. Once again giving myself a third of a point, because those wrestling idiots were involved and she did meet an obstacle that she beat by inventing metalbending. I correctly predicted the pieces involved but I got them in completely the wrong configuration.

For Appa, I predicted that he would come back after having many adventures and running into other sky bison. (What's the plural of sky bison? Devastated to say that I've never had to use it) I was right that Appa came back; I was wrong that he ran into remnants of sky bison(s?), but he did end up running into remnants of the Air Nomads, and dreaming about other sky bison(s?), so I'm giving myself three quarters of a point.

For Zuko, I predicted that he would be coaxed/dragged into being decent via a swordbending girlfriend, and that he would be redeemed by the end of Season 2. Hilariously, my prediction smashed Jin and Jet together, which breaks my brain a little. Also, he did the polar opposite of being redeemed by the end of the season. I'm going to give myself a quarter point, for getting the sword bit and the girl bit.

I predicted that Sokka would split from the rest of the Gaang and go on a multi-episode Appa hunting arc that focused heavily on his ties to his family. I was 100% wrong with this one. No point for me. Which is too bad, because I really liked the idea I came up with.

I predicted that Momo would do aerial reconnaissance for the Appa hunt with Sokka. I'm giving myself a full point for this one, because what was he doing in the Tale of Momo? Flying around looking for Appa. Admittedly Sokka wasn't there, but whatever, I need this point.

For Katara, I predicted some sort of moral crisis. Something to add some nuance to her world view. A good yet unapologetically patriotic firebender, or a downright evil waterbender. I was completely wrong on this one too, unless you count being talked into listening to Jet. No points for me.

I predicted that Aang would have to do some type of Avataring that involved delegating tasks to his friends, or putting his status as avatar first, probably due to unrest in the spirit world. This was by far my most broad prediction ("hey maybe the avatar will have to avatar it up" is a very safe statement), so no points for that. I was wrong about spirit world involvement, although I was right that his Avatar duties would conflict with his personal convictions. I'll give myself one quarter point.

For Iroh, I predicted that he would call on old resources to get himself and Zuko into a better situation. I got this one almost completely right, except two bits: I thought he would use blackmail or intimidation, when he actually used something more like the power of friendship, and I also thought that particular plot point would last longer than a single B-plot in a single episode. But what the hell, I'm giving myself the point.

All three of my predictions for how the finale was going to go were incorrect. There was no strike against the Fire Nation, there was no immediate dismissal of the eclipse as a possible time of attack, and there was no relegation of the eclipse to a single episode plot point. No point for me.

So, out of a grand total of 12 predictions, I scored:

3.91!

Ouch.

I'm going to be generous and round it up to 4, which is a third correct. Still ouch. I am less reliable than a coin toss.

But! I actually had a lot of fun both coming up with predictions and reviewing them. So I'm still counting this exercise as a win.

[namarikonda]

Jesus showing off his top surgery scars to the boys (John. 20:27)

[khruschevshoe]

You know, it's rather interesting to me that Taylor Swift's parasocial relationship with her fans is honestly more akin to a YouTuber than a writer's. When I scroll through her tag on tumblr/Twitter, it's far more regarding the connection to her personal life/relationship developments than the actual metaphors/fictional story she might be telling. Everything comes back to how her songs reflect back on her relationships with Joe/Matty/Travis/Jake/insert ex-boyfriend here. And what fascinates me about it is that even though she complains about it, she leans into that very perception because it strengthens the parasocial bond.

The marketing for TTPD so clearly being about Joe Alwyn and the songs to Matty Healy. The marketing/video for Red TV so CLEARLY being about Jake Gyllenhaal, with so many of the new lines in All Too Well specifically being digs at him (I'll get older but your lovers stay my age, casting an actor that looks like him for the video, specific lines in I Bet You Think About Me). The fact that songs like Getaway Car and Bejeweled and Gorgeous and London Boy and Lavender Haze being picked apart at time of release and long after for signs of relationships crumbling. The way she uses surprise songs in relation to her relationship development with Joe/Matty/Travis. The damn TTPD "stages of grief" playlists where she deliberately undid/changed the meanings of old songs just to keep her audience speculating on her love life.

It's not sexist to point out that her wielding her love life is a marketing tool and that the strongest connection to her audience isn't the strength of her writing/the composition of her music- it's her deliberate crafting of a connection between her music and her personal life, leaving the audience invested in her music as an extension of Taylor the Person/Girlfriend rather than Taylor the Artist.

[scyllas-dogs]

as you asked, and nothing more

[spikeyphil]

ah yes my favorite youtubers, phil and ted, as featured in episode 11 of the supermegashow podcast

[musubiki]

danmarch 🐉💎

[viivenn]

the lady of Nevermore and her knight.

(i blame @franouo for this. you’ve influenced me😔✨🧚‍♀️)

i just think they’re so sweet and… stuff 😁✨🧚‍♀️🦋🪄❤️✨✨✨✨✨

i draw brienne like this to give a little reference to the books , if you’re curious about her scars and freckles. i also don’t think larissa would have any scars , and in this universe i think brienne would be juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust a smidge taller , not by much , but enough.

[leslutdepointedulac]

Louis complaining about having to squeeze into a coffin like sardines with Lestat (who he's totally not gay for) and lie face down on top of him with their faces smushed up against each other, like oh no! That's so sad, I'm heartbroken for you. What hardships you must endure in life. That's sucks, that sucks real bad. Are you okay? Was that tough? However did you cope? That must have been soooo hard, I'm so sorry that happened to you 😞😥

[baejax-the-great]

Veilguard does the important work of reminding us that people's religiousity is generally rooted entirely in rationalism, logic, and goodwill toward everyone in the world and not just specific ingroups.

When the Elvhen pantheon, who in many ways take after the Greek pantheon from our world, are revealed to be flawed individuals, something that the Dalish are already aware of because their myths convey some of those flaws all these years later, logically, the Dalish then abandon their gods instantly and without any sort of emotional response and turn toward the rational goal of killing those gods.

After all, during the Trojan war when Apollo felt slighted and decided to send a plague to wipe out the Achaeans (and their dogs for some reason), didn't the Trojans all look at each other and go, "Actually, that was a kind of fucked up thing for Apollo to do. And scary. There's nothing to stop him from using that ability against us. Maybe we should just go kill Apollo"?

No? They didn't do that? Because that would be absurd and entirely out of keeping with how people understand and express faith throughout all of history?

Weird. Well, I'm sure there's an example out there somewhere that jives with Veilguard's quality writing.

[rogloptimist]

LAKE MISSOULA x JONAS VINGEGAARD

credits under cut!

lake missoula - richy mitch and the coal miners // jonas vingegaard - team presentation, tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard, tadej pogacar, and remco evenepoel - podium ceremony, tour de france 2024 (belga images) // tadej pogacar and jonas vingegaard - tour de france 2024 // wayward son - rainbow rowell // jonas vingegaard - stage 21, tour de france 2024 // it's down to legs - caley fretz // jonas vingegaard - stage 20, tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard - tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard - stage 11, tour de france 2024 // a poem on hope - wendell berry // jonas vingegaard and remco evenepoel - stage 19, tour de france 2024 // quora user shulamit widawsky // jonas vingegaard - stage 21, tour de france 2024 (getty images) // jonas vingegaard - stage 21, tour de france 2024 post-race interview (flobikes) // 'now the fight is over': jonas vingegaard concedes tour de france battle for yellow, but still aims for second - adam becket // jonas vingegaard - stage 19, tour de france 2024 post-race interview (flobikes) // video: jonas vingegaard and matteo jorgenson consoled after heart-breaking end to stage 19 of 2024 tour de france for team visma | lease a bike - kieran wood // jonas vingegaard - tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard - tour de france 2024 // 'probably the hardest moment of my career'-- jonas vingegaard on his crash and fight to be ready for the tour de france - stephen farrand // jonas vingegaard's tour de france was a venn diagram - iain treloar // rise up and salute the sun: the writings of suzy kassem - suzy kassem // jonas vingegaard - tour de france 2023 // jonas vingegaard - stage 21, tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard - stage 11, tour de france 2024 // vingegaard exhausted after tour de france: may cut season short - sjoerd valkering // jonas vingegaard and tadej pogacar - stage 20, tour de france 2024 (belga images) // the thing is - ellen bass // "if you had told me four months ago that i would be second, i wouldn't have believed you" - jonas vingegaard disappointed but proud of his tour de france - ondrej zhasil // jonas vingegaard and tadej pogacar - stage 11, tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard - stage 11, tour de france 2024 post-race interview (nbc sports) // alfred lord tennyson // jonas vingegaard and tadej pogacar - stage 11, tour de france 2024 // remco evenepoel and jonas vingegaard - stage 21, tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard and tadej pogacar - tour de france 2024 // matteo jorgenson and jonas vingegaard - stage 19, tour de france 2024 // matteo jorgenson and jonas vingegaard - tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard and tadej pogacar - podium ceremony, tour de france 2024 // jonas vingegaard and wout van aert - tour de france 2024 (team visma | lease a bike)

[ywpd-translations]

Ride 774: Kiji, coming!!

Pag 1

1: Welcome, to the Emperor's throne!!

My aim is the double crown!!

Pag 2

4: Ahhh... you're fast, the two of you

I thought I could catch you for sure at 2km left

Pag 3

1: But it took me until “1km left”, yon!!

Pag 4

3: Ah!?

He

4: caught up!? Who....

Pag 5

1: who the hell are you!?

2: The two people in the lead are taking the curve and passing the sign that says that there's 1km left until the sprint line.....

Pag 6

1: No, it's three people!!

Three people passed the “1km left” sign!!

2: There's more people!? Since when!?

Wasn't it two people!?

What happened!? Who's that? That jersey-

At the last curve, suddenly-

3: It's not “who are you”....!!

Dammit!! I know!! This guy!!

Pag 7

1: There's one more person who we need to pay special attention to

2: Gunma Ryousei's third year, Kiji Kyuui

3: Ohh, Kiji? Who's that

Oi, I already told you about this in advance, Manami!! Come on, at the sea

Is that so?

4: What's your data about him?

5: There's basically no record of him in road racing

6: He's an..... “assassin” from the MTB world, huh

7: Is he aiming for the goal?

8: Yeah.... the goal...

That's right....

We should be glad

Pag 8

1: That he's only aiming for the goal

2: Hayaaaa!!

3: Dammit!! The first result.... so you're aiming for the sprint too!?

4: Since they said you were aiming for the goal I thought you were a climber like Manami!!

Pag 9

1: Let's speed up, Orange!! He'll catch up!!

2: I've seen it before!! This guy's jersey

3: That day.... he appeared suddenly on that bike with the thick tires

Pag 10

1: It's the guy who chased Onoda-san and the Hakogaku guy with the bouncy hair!!

2: Before that, Onoda-san said they were friends and that he's “strong”!!

3: He's coming to catch up to

4: mine and San-na's battle

Pag 11

1: He really is strong!!

Let's switch, I'll pull!!

Pag 12

1: Orange!!

3: They're in tune

You have amazing judgment and explosive power!!

4: When I caught up at the last curve

5: Even though they could have also accepted me and made me join them

Without making eye contact or calling out to each other, in an instant at the same time they made the decision

6: that they would “cooperate” to leave me behind!! Yon!!

You're really....

Pag 13

4: What's that

He's lowering his stance and pushing on the handles like he's about to dance....!!

5: Hayaaaa

Pag 14

1: You're really close friends!!

Pag 15

4: He lined up to us in one go!?

Pag 16

1: This guy!! Was it an optical illusion? Just now, I saw something like a cloud of dust behind me

2: Takadajou told us this

Be careful

3: I've been told that the power that a MTB rider can produce in a short time

4: is 1.5 times that of a road racing cyclist

5: This guy can match this top speed!?

8: Ah!?

9: Huh!?

Pag 17

2: In between!?

He came in between!?

Ah!?

3: You bastard, usually when one catches up he joins in the back

Pag 18

1: It's road racing theory!!

4: This guy doesn't know the theory?

5: 800m left until the sprint line!!

6: 1

Pag 19

1: 2

What's this- San-na, did this guy suddenly started counting

2: What's this

The sign for an attack?

3: 3

Pag 20

2: Alright, I recovered

5: Well then, I'll go

Pag 21

1: Ahead, yon

2: So it really was a sign for attacking!!

Who's that guy!!

[flerkenkiddingme]

have you ever read something that makes you think the author is into the same fanfiction as you

[fisheito]

i told myself that yakuei only had one position then i proved myself (sorta) wrong

my fave face here:

[moeblob]

[puowei]

As always, the tradition of doing a bingo to guess the characters and rarities of this year's Halloween.

2022 & 2021

[lady-raziel]

It wouldn’t be a good thing and would certainly throw a catastrophic wrench in everything but the next 12-15 hours would be the absolute funniest time for Joe Biden to go on tv and say “actually I’m a Trump supporter now, after hearing about all this for so long I’ve come around to it and think I’m voting MAGA 😎”