#azerbaijani muscle

[ragingmusclesexual]

Shredded + Veiny + HARD NIP PEEKING OUT?! *Melts*

[happypuppypuppy]

🇦🇿 Some representatives of Azerbaijan in the U20 European Wrestling Championship 2024 (credits to wrestleaze)

[sanzaibian]

I look at my watch, it’s already 3 PM. He is one hour late, although I feel that he’s not as much late as he is not coming.

I sigh, and go back to the locker room. I wanted to surprise him by waiting in the lobby shirtless, but after so much time loitering and being told off multiple times by the staff, I guess I must cut my losses. I knew that he wasn’t all that fussed about me wish for a second date in the gym, even if he seems to be a health nut, but still, ghosting me like that really hurts…

As I walk next to the mirrors in the locker room, I look at my body.

Honestly, with a body like that, guys should be drooling and yearning to be my boyfriend ! Yet, when I go on Grindr to find dates, I can only find people who will take me for a quick fuck, and never agree to anything further along… And this is why, no matter how fat my muscles are, how much hair is dusted on my body, how symmetric my face is, or just… how conventionally attractive to a gay audience I may be, I find myself waiting for a whole hour for a prince charming who will never come.

With a disappointed face, I walk towards my locker. By now, it’s no use to try and squeeze in an actual workout in addition to that whole hour full of variants of nothing – not that I really want to work out at all. However, as I reach my locker, I suddenly notice Ilham standing there in gym clothes, that he has presumably just put on.

I guess you can call him a friend ? In the barest of sense ? We do talk sometimes, only the bare minimum, but he’s always the one who leads the conversation… Well, you can’t fault me he’s so ridiculously hot without even trying, it makes me feel self-conscious even when I look how I look ! And, as if on queue, he notices my gloomy expression, and immediately confronts me about it.

“Hey Vítor ! Good workout ? Why do you look so sad like that ?” He asks, way too energetic for the situation. - Ah, it’s nothing, I had a gym date, but I was ghosted…” I answer succinctly. I don’t want to dwell on it too much. - Oh…” I can almost see the gears turning in his head, as he tries to makes sense of what I say, before he gets it. “Oh ! I’m so sorry, bro ! What a bitch to abandon you like this ! Ya know, I know a few girls I could hook you up with, I’m sure they wouldn’t do that ! - I’m sorry, girls won’t do.” I smile at his answer. “Once again, I’m gay ! - Sorry bro, I forgot again ! I swear I can make up to you !” He apologies.

He’s Azerbaijani, and due to how homosexuality is seen over there, he has a really hard time conceiving of masculine gay people. But he tries, and that’s by far the most important.

“Don’t worry, don’t worry ! But I won’t hold you up too much, especially since I already butchered my workout by waiting for him.” I urge him, as I do want to come home sooner than later. - Oh, too bad… then see you next time, bro ! Have a good afternoon ! - Have a good workout !”

He smiles to me while I wave him goodbye, visibly trying to empathize with me, before leaving the locker room in a small trot. This is how far our “friendship” goes, just simple courtesy when we see each other in the gym, which isn’t often since I don’t have a lot of time to go in the first place, and nothing beyond. I could likely try to deepen our relationship, but I feel we don’t actually have much in common, since he’s much more of a social butterfly than I’ll ever be, no matter how eager he may seem to get to know me, with all of these allusions of making me meet people or inviting me to parties.

Finally reaching my locker, I open it and find inside all my regular clothes, my phone and my other belongings, as expected. However, I also find a small piece of paper inside.

Curious, I examine it, and notice that there are actually stuff written on it. Handwritten. A secret message ? In the gym ? That’s weird…

It reads :

“You with no name and no house, do not forget who you are.”

I try to find a signature of any kind, but I do not find anything but this… warning ? poem ? I don’t really know what it’s supposed to be…

But whatever it is, it doesn’t seem to have much substance. I guess it’s not that important for me to take further notice of.

I stick the piece of paper inside my bag and take my clothes. I’m happy to have thought of taking two sets of clothing, since with loitering this long in the lobby, the staff needs to see me leaving, even if it originally was in order to have something to wear for the after-workout date. So I change, I stock everything in my bag, and leave the gym, bidding farewell to the staff at the same time.

Once I’m out of the gym, I look around to find somewhere secluded enough. I wouldn’t want to do anything in public, after all. So I walk around a bit, until I find a public bathhouse, in which I enter, since it is perfect for what I’m about to do.

See, I have quite a big secret… or rather, you know the secret, but you don’t know why it is a secret…

Suddenly, my muscles start mellowing out, my abs fading, while the rest seem to deflate. My pecs start retreating inside my body while my shoulders narrow, losing at the same time all the muscle mass making them fuse into my neck. My v-line disappears, my calves and my arms thin out, and I’m losing mass all round. At the same time, the light dusting of hair on my torso starts thinning out, just like my big beard, losing loads of length until only a few short hairs on my lip and on my chin remain. My hair also grows wildly, covering my forehead in messy coiled hair, losing any order it may have had. And as both of these processes come to an end, I lose a few centimeters of height, while my face rearranges to become more square, my facial features arrange themselves in a less symmetrical way, until it all becomes… well… not a model’s face, just a normal guy’s face.

Here is the secret : the guy that was in the gym wasn’t the real Vítor Nunes. This is the real Vítor Nunes. Just a normal guy, a bit skinny-fat, a bit twinky, a bit nerdy, but most of all an unremarkable guy. And that normal unremarkable guy gets out of his big clothes to go into his small clothes, complete with jeans and a red t-shirt. When everything is secure, I go back out to the street to head to the cafe I go to every time after the gym.

I think I owe you an explanation.

The way I look right now is the way I always looked – well, minus aging. However, one day, about a year ago if my memory serves me right, I suddenly gained the ability to transform. I still don’t know what caused it, but all of a sudden, when I concentrate, I can change my body to reflect what I have in mind.

Of course, I’m gay, so my first instinct when I discovered this gift was to give myself big muscles, and so they magically grew. God, I loved it, it was so exciting to see my muscles swell in the mirror, it’s really a one-of-a-kind experience ! However, this is also when I learned of the limits of this power : it’s actually really uncomfortable to maintain another form for too long, especially when it’s quite far from my normal form. If you have that experience, it’s a bit like when you are in high heels, everything starts to become tricky to do (don’t ask me how I know that). That’s why when I tried to become a woman, it was so uncomfortable I could barely remain like that for a few seconds before I made my boobs go away. Therefore, while I have access to a very hot persona, I can’t maintain it forever, meaning it’s not actually that useful aside from some kind of party trick.

However, the temptation was always too strong.

I used to be a virgin, both in sex and in romance, and the dream of prince charming was a reoccurring one, especially for someone as lonely as I am. However, with this power, I could spend some time in another body, in a body in which I could look like god amongst men. And so, the Vítor Nunes you saw, the one well-thought out to be as attractive for gay men as I could think of, was born. And it’s using his body that I lost my virginity in what could be its own sub-story.

But it never went beyond that, a quick one-night stand, even though I looked very hot and not very picky. I don’t even know what I am doing wrong ! Like, sure, when I’m on dates, the other guy always wants to directly fuck, but still ! Suddenly, someone hails me.

“Hey ! Vítor ! You hear me ?”

I’m jerked out of my thoughts, and quickly cobble an answer.

“Oh, er… hey, Satoshi ! I… didn’t notice you here ! - Well, I noticed.” He answers me, dryly.

He’s always been quite dry with me, and I don’t know why. We go to the same university, and are in the same curriculum in writing, although most of our classes reflect our different paths throughout this degree. So we talked in the few classes we had in common, but nothing more, really. I guess he’s the closest person I could classify as a “friend”, and even that is a stretch. Recently, though, he’s been acting quite weirdly. I know that he’s started attending the gym, and he’s also bleached his hair. I wonder if he is trying to impress someone or what...

“What are you doing in this part of town ?” He asks me. - Oh, I… I was just at the gym, I want to be healthier, you see…” I half-lie, hoping he will be convinced. - I see…” He looks at me, squinting. He doesn’t seem convinced. “Well, what matters is that you become the real you. Now, I’m sorry, but I need to go. Bye.”

What ? What was he mumbling ? I look at him as he continues his way opposite to where I’m heading. He seems to be in quite the hurry, I wonder where he’s heading… Recently, he hasn’t got a lot of time, I always find him almost avoiding talking to people, and always disappearing once class is dismissed. Is gym this much of a time-eater or does he also have something I don’t know of ? … N-not that it interests me this much, of course, that’s his own private life !

Ugh… To save myself from my own thoughts, I enter the cafe and go at the back of the file. When I’m finally at the counter, I go to order, before the woman behind the counter, Sandra, recognizes me. I’m a regular at this cafe, after all.

“Hey Vítor, I didn’t expect you this early ! - Yeah, I had something to do with someone, but he never showed up.” I once again lie by omission, though I admittedly give her a more accurate picture. - Oh, I’m so sorry for you !” She brings her hand on her mouth to empathize with me. She’s always been very expressive. “But speaking of people not showing up, I’m guessing you want an americano, like usual ? - Yes ?” I answer, unsure where she’s heading with this. - Well that’s great ! Because a kind soul actually bought you one !”

Smiling, she gives me an already prepared americano, to which a piece of paper is attached, that I take with a confused look.

“And… to whom I owe the honor ?” In ask her. - Well, that person asked to remain anonymous ! But they told me that you should be able to piece together who they are thanks to this piece of paper I attached !” She answers, radiating in glee. Yeah, she also loves drama. - Okay… well, give them my thanks if you see them, I guess…”

I wave her goodbye and take place at an outside table. Another piece of paper ? It must be a coincidence, the consequences of it not being are way too scary for me to dwell on too much. Yet, when I read it, these consequences seem more and more like reality…

“For you really have a beautiful self, especially when you show your true face.”

It’s the same handwriting as the note I found at the gym ! Plus, when putting the two pieces of paper, it really does seem to be directly talking about my transformations… But who is it, and what do they want from me ? How did they find out about my secret ? And why this sudden… flirty tone ?

I sigh, and quickly drink my coffee. Due to the fact that it has already been prepared, it means that it’s a bit colder than usual, meaning it’s easier to drink. Wait… if it’s barely colder than usual… does this mean that the one having ordered it was here barely a few minutes ago ? But if it’s so, then how could they have slipped another piece of paper inside my locker ?

The caffeine starts hitting my brain, making me mull over the facts and imagine who could be the one to deliver these notes. Whoever they are, they seem to know my routine, since they knew that I would go to this cafe after the gym. It means that it’s very likely someone I know, or at least someone whose face I have already seen. They also have been witness to one of my transformations somehow, so they’ve likely hung out at the gym… or been one of my earlier dates perhaps ?

Everything is confusing, I just cannot find a way to make sense of all of that ! And… what will happen now that my secret is revealed ? Am I suddenly going to become a lab rat, as my weird condition is revealed to all ? Am I going to have to perform weird or even illegal tasks to stave off outing of my power ? Am I going to be recruited by a criminal organization in order to perform heists as an unknown person ?

Looking at my empty cup, I understand I’ve now gone too far in my thoughts. I’m likely not going to be coerced by a criminal ringleader to commit crimes. That’s ridiculous.

I dispose of my cup and head home. I’ve seen enough today, and I really need an actual break. So I take the bus, a few connecting ones until I’m finally back where I live. Before entering, I quickly go to check if there’s anything in the mailbox. And as if on queue, there is, some random account statements and other official stuff… and another of those papers.

They know where I live ! Now I can actually be scared ! For sure they’re going to make me do crimes or intern me inside a research center, I know it ! Shaking, I take out the piece of paper, and read it. It is written with the same handwriting as the others, so it confirms the fact that they do know a lot about me, but… er… eh ? Here is what it says :

“You are always worthy of love, so never forget the above.”

Wait wait wait, from the beginning, the flirty was what it was all actually about ? It is a love declaration ? … I guess it does rule out the criminal possibility… So who could it be ?

Thinking about it… It can’t be Sandra at the cafe, her shift wouldn’t let her go in the gym when I was there, and she was the one saying that they bought the coffee and left me the message. It can’t be Satoshi, although he could have bought me coffee, he couldn’t put the message in my locker, since I didn’t see him entering the gym, and he was actually walking towards the gym when I saw him. Plus, he’s so dry with me I’d think he hates me before I’d think he loves me. It can’t be Ilham, although he could have put his message in my locker before I entered, he’s currently at the gym, so he couldn’t buy me coffee. Plus, to my knowledge, he’s straight, and he’s still learning English, so he couldn’t have written such a complicated “poem”.

And I didn’t see anyone else during my little trip, so it could literally be anyone else !

But wait… looking back at the three pieces of paper, of the sequence they put together… it reminds me of something… I open my door and quickly make my way to my computer. I need to check something. To check a certain creative writing homework I had in first year.

And finding it… yes. I was correct. This is directly taken from it. The homework we did in duo back in first year of college. It’s weird… is it… really him ?

I close back up my computer, put down all of my stuff while continuing to mull over this revelation. But all of my thinking leads me to one conclusion and one only : I need to call him. So I take out my phone and do just that.

“Hello, Vítor ? Why do you call me ?” He asks, picking up almost immediately after me calling. - I just wanted to ask… do you remember our creative homework, back in first year ? - Yeah, I do, of course I do. - And… have you recently used it for anything ?”

I hear a sigh. Of course I was right.

“So you understood that it was me. I think we both have things to say to each other, so let us meet. - I guess we do.”

And so I go back out of my house, back to where it all started. Back to the gym. I walk for a bit, take a few buses, and when I’ve finally arrived, none other than Satoshi was waiting for me in front of the gym.

“Hello again, Satoshi.” I hail him. “So, you said we had to discuss ? - Yes. Let me be clear at first : I know that you have a muscular alter-ego that you can become. I don’t know why, or how, but I know you do. - How… did you know ?” I ask, a bit anxious, while he smiles at my question. - Well, you see… since the beginning of the year, you’ve been quite absent, and it made me quite worried.” He began recounting, feeling in his way of speaking way more personal and warm. “Honestly, while at first I thought to myself that you can have your own life, and that I shouldn’t interfere with it, your presence started to feel… missing.”

Huh, I didn’t know that I turned him down this much when I discovered my power. I thought that everything was just going as usual, only talking while in public transports and all… Yeah, I guess since I started going to the gym to get hookups, I changed my route after class, meaning that it overlapped less… I didn’t consider that…

“So, one day, I decided to follow you. Discreetly, of course, until you went to that gym. I… I didn’t know why you would go in there, but following you, I saw you entering a changing room… and out left a muscular man. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that it was you. - So this is how you understood that I had powers… - Yes. But this is not the end of my tale. Because I then thought of why I cared so much about you not being available. It wasn’t the first time someone would more or less abandon me out of the blue like that, but it was the first time I was this agitated. Especially because our relationship wasn’t that deep, all things considered. This lead me to the conclusion that I… er... want to spend more time with you, and made me realize that… in truth… er…” He blushes, suddenly trailing off and having a hard time to articulate clearly. “That… that I’m in love with you.”

Although I expected it, I still blush. He’s so straightforward ! And… it’s so unexpected, all things considered ! I guess I still had in mind the possibility that he was just trying to hype me up, somehow ?

“And what really angers me most,” He continues “is that you are overt there trying to be as ‘masculine’, as ‘beautiful’ or anything else to woo people, even though you’re already great the way you are ! And how you sabotage yourself by catering to this image of yourself you invented, going to the gym and all…”

I don’t know what to say. I guess I’ve been really focused in being as much of a gym rat as I could, else my cover would be ridiculous…

“Is it like that ?” I can finally manage. “That people don’t bye the muscular self I have ? - No. I- I don’t think that’s it. It’s more that you do it too well, so they don’t see you as anything more than a gym rat. I guess it all feels wrong and not personal, because it’s not you ! You’re forcing yourself to be someone you’re not ! B-but… since I have the privilege of knowing who you really are… I want to say that the real you is more. It’s beautiful, and warrants love…” He says, blushing even more. - H-how are you saying this with a straight face…” I answer, smiling, while being swept by the wave of awkwardness he radiates. - I’m not… But I really want to tell you what things really are. Because you deserve it.” He takes a large inspiration. “So. Do you want to go out with me ?”

By now, I fully knew what was coming.

And I know my answer.

“Yes, I do.”

“Hey, I’m home !” I announce, coming back home.

However, I do not find any answer to my call, even though Satoshi is supposed to come to my house this evening. He’s likely not there yet, I’m sure taken by his work, meaning that it’s going to be at least a small while until he makes it here.

I smirk. I know what to do to him. He will hate that, but it will be way too fun an opportunity to pass up. So I go to my room, completely undress, and take out some of the special clothes I still have stashed in the corner of my cupboard. In particular, I take out a very big par of jeans, the kind that would usually never fit me.

Then, all of a sudden, I feel my muscles tense up. They’re pulsating, getting progressively bigger and bigger. My pecs are the most noticeable of all of them, rounding up and sagging down in big globes attached to my torso, but everything else gains in mass. My shoulders crack as they’re pushing apart, muscles growing between them and my neck, and a light dusting of black hair starts appearing on them. They descend all over my body, on my torso, beneath my armpits, in my crotch, and on my legs. My crotch also embiggens, the hose hiding inside taking more and more place, while on the rear side my ass cheeks firm up, and gets bigger just like the pecs upstairs.

As it all happens, my face also itches, as the little hairs that are on it start growing, elongating my face at the same time. These hair grow all over my chin into a long beard, while on my lip they only grow denser. At the same time, my face rearranges to become more conventionally attractive, more symmetrical, and my hair starts shortening a bit, and becoming more well-kept.

As the last few details of my transformation arrange themselves, I put the large jeans on, not even bothering to put on underwear before that. Yup, that’s very sexy alright, he’s gonna hate that ! And so my muscular self takes place in the living room, waiting for his beloved to come.

Because this time, I know my prince charming will come.

================================================

Hey ! A story (that was again hard to write) for the last few hours of Pride Month, if it's even still on in your part of the world ! ^^'

I hope we in the TF community can recognize all the colors of the rainbow and all the letters of the acronym, including bi (and similar identities) and trans people ! And I also hope that we can all help to build, each to our ability, a better and more tolerant world (especially in the face of the rise of hateful ideologies around the world, yes I'm quivering at the results of my elections ^^')

So yeah, happy pride, everyone !

[mariacallous]

Authoritarian states’ traditional approach to conflict outside their borders is to choose sides—supplying political-diplomatic support and military muscle to their allies—or to freeze the conflict while keeping a hand in to stir the pot and shape possible outcomes. Russia has done both: the first by backing Syria’s Bashar al Assad against various rebel movements, and the second by trying to dominate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Authoritarians are not known for expending resources on peacemaking ventures with uncertain outcomes. Nor do they focus on good governance norms after a settlement. They are often content to consolidate the power and standing of local authoritarians.

Yet that pattern seems to be shifting. Today, we are witnessing a number of authoritarian or semi-authoritarian states engage in mediation, and conflict management. China has mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Qatar has led talks between Israel and Hamas, and Turkey has done the same between Russia and Ukraine leading to the Black Sea Grain deal that lapsed last year.

In an attempt at heavy-handed conflict management, Russia tried to freeze the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and sent in peacekeepers in 2020 but  stood  aside when the Azerbaijani forces took decisive action to seize the disputed territory three years later. Such activities are pursued by a wide range of nominal and quasi-democracies, military governments, presidential one-party states, and monarchies.

The impact of this surge in authoritarian peacemaking gets less attention than it deserves. Authoritarian states are buffeting the peacemaking diplomacy of Western states, blocking or undercutting Western initiatives and challenging Western leadership of the global peacemaking agenda. The most obvious impact has been the global polarization that creates gridlock in the U.N. Security Council, undercuts support for U.N. peace operations and saps coherence around critical norms such as human rights and individual freedoms.

This pattern constrains what the U.N. can do in conflict management, mediation and peacebuilding. It also directly challenges the ability of NGOs to work for dialogue and reconciliation in fragile and war-torn places such as Georgia where pro-Russian parties are imposing Russian-style controls on the activity of NGOs that receive external support. Such action undermines the unofficial playbook for peacemaking and good governance.

By pushing back against Western conceptions about managing conflict, authoritarian peacemaking is part-and-parcel of a more general global backlash against intrusive and interventionist western policies that may undercut the perceived authority and legitimacy of incumbent regimes.

This backlash privileges state sovereignty against notions about “global” norms relating to rights and governance. Sadly, the U.S. government has made the undermining of international norms easier by adopting double standards on civilian protection and human rights law in Ukraine and Gaza. Such conduct actually helps China attack American soft power in Africa and undercuts U.S. diplomatic efforts at the U.N.

But the authoritarian surge is not necessarily either effective or coherent. Consider, for example, the difficulty experienced by Egypt’s military regime and Qatar’s monarchy in bringing Hamas and Israel to a deal, even with strong backing from the U.S. and other Western and Arab states. Regional authoritarians have not been notably successful in bringing about peace and stability in Libya and have aggravated rather than alleviated its internal clan and tribal factionalism.

They have failed to cohere effectively for peace in Yemen. Regional authoritarians made Syria’s tragic civil war divisions worse before ceding the field to the Russians. In all these cases, the authoritarians ran into the hard realities of intractable conflicts where the local parties have plenty of weapons and have not yet exhausted their unilateral options. In some cases, they made the problem worse.

At first glance, it might appear that authoritarian states bring certain advantages to the table. One attribute is internal unity of command and policy coherence at the level of the individual state. Unlike liberal states, they can potentially bring not only a whole of government approach but also a whole of society focus in their strategy for dealing with conflicts. Messy internal policy debates do not bother them. Authoritarians generally place top priority on achieving stability and creating a favorable context for advancing regime interests, and their policies are best understood as transactional.

In practice the record of their approaches is quite mixed. In one model, for the transactions to succeed, it is necessary for the existing regime or the “winner” in a civil war to be capable of being a reliable partner to the external authoritarian conflict manager. In a second model, the authoritarian goal is to back a factional side—either to exploit natural resources or block an adversary or rival state, or perhaps both.

The idea of a negotiated settlement may not be a priority or be viewed as less desirable than some degree of continued instability. This scenario can slide into a third model in which rival authoritarians seek to impose a favorable outcome on the country and compete with rival external powers through the provision of military and political support. While authoritarian states may have internal coherence, they are often in conflict with other states.

It is not clear that any of these models is good for peace or for the lives of ordinary civilians. In the case of Syria, Russia prevailed by applying the first model, carpet-bombing cities to help the local authoritarian prevail, imposing a very cold peace. But it is not clear that authoritarian states will be successful in imposing outright victories in many other situations.

The case of Libya provides a vivid illustration of what can happen with the second model when outsiders pile in to pursue their varied agendas: In this case Egypt, Russia, the UAE, and the Saudis (to say nothing of the French) decided to support Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s designs against the U.N.-recognized unity government in Tripoli, backed by Turkey, Qatar, Italy, and the United States.

Commercial, strategic, and ideological agendas coursed across the strife-torn land, leading a succession of U.N. special envoys to resign in frustration, blaming the Libyan factions (rather than their backers) for a lack of political will to work for reconciliation and create conditions for holding elections. Libya’s disorder does not remain in Libya, as the neighboring Sudanese can attest.

In the case of the Ethiopia-Tigray civil war in 2020 to 2022, the Ethiopians enjoyed military support from the authoritarian regime of Eritrea as well as Turkey, Iran, and the UAE. But it was the African Union-based mediation of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo supported by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and senior envoys of the U.S. and South African governments negotiated an end to the fighting. This followed the Ethiopian government’s ability to impose itself militarily on Tigray at a key moment in 2022 thanks to Turkish drones—though the country is still facing insurgents in other regions.

But it is clear that Sudan is not endowed with such resources for conflict management, despite the high hopes generated by the internationally celebrated Juba Accord of October 2020 between its transitional government and a range of rebel movements. Two and a half years later, the current civil war erupted, causing the gravest humanitarian crisis in the world, affecting some 6.6 million internally displaced persons and 2 million refugees fleeing into neighboring countries.

Rival military factions are tearing the country apart while attracting external authoritarians like flies to flypaper. The Saudis and the United States continue to host peace efforts, but Sudan’s military leaders enjoy widespread backing from authoritarian states: The regime’s forces are aided by Egypt, the Saudis, and Iran while the rival Rapid Support Forces are allied with Libya’s Haftar, the Chad regime of Mahamat Deby, plus the Russians, the UAE, and an assortment of allies in neighboring states. This is the second model with a vengeance, and it looks increasingly like it is sliding into the third model of authoritarian rivals pushing their proxies to the finish.

Spectacles like these do not seem to augur well for the peacemaking business. They undercut the potential for international organizations to play their traditional role. The Security Council regularly takes up the Sudan file but is prevented by gridlock from naming names and using serious pressure to stop the fighting. The UAE strenuously denies its role in fueling the fighting in an unholy alliance including Haftar and Deby, and the western permanent members of the Security Council are well aware they cannot ignore likely vetoes from China and Russia.

At the regional level, African Union members are divided, and the Gulf Cooperation Council is hampered by the intense feuding between the Saudis and the UAE. Sudan is a laboratory case of how warring factions export their divisions to external sponsors who return the favor by exporting their own divisions back into the conflict.

At first glance, all of this may look bad for the United States and, more generally, the West because it points to the erosion of the West’s hard and soft power. High-minded efforts at conflict management and good governance contend face-to-face with the most cynical practitioners of transactional statecraft. However, U.S. diplomats need a closer look at peacemaking cases to understand how U.S. statecraft can sometimes be effective in corralling recalcitrant antagonists, operating behind the scenes or employing more of an invisible hand.

When necessary, the United States is capable of standing back and advancing its interests by empowering others, sharing credit, and borrowing leverage and even credibility from other players, including the transactional authoritarians, however unprincipled they are.

During the Balkan wars of the 1990s, it fell to the U.S. government to knock mostly authoritarian heads and impose a stop to the fighting. Representatives of the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Russia, and the European Union attended the Dayton peace conference. In the case of Colombia’s long civil conflicts, Washington first deployed diplomatic leadership via Plan Colombia and helped shape the balance of power between the government and the Marxist rebels of the FARC.

In the next phase, the U.S. government operated more indirectly via a special envoy who participated discreetly in a process led by Cuba and Norway with facilitator countries Venezuela and Chile, all loosely coordinating with major European and neighboring states, the U.N., and the E.U., leading to the 2016 Colombian peace accords. Washington played its hand decisively but less visibly in the Northern Ireland process leading to the 1998 Good Friday agreement.

This less direct public face of peacemaking has a history. In 1905, Theodore Roosevelt indirectly maneuvered Tsarist Russia and imperial Japan to terminate a hugely costly war, leaving the visible negotiation to the direct parties. He never personally visited the conference table in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, but actively communicated with relevant governments and, in effect, borrowed leverage from authoritarian and democratic states alike, while blocking alternative approaches. The process required Roosevelt to navigate the politics of two authoritarian regimes which could not admit their need for his help.

Fast forward to the 1980s and 1990s when U.S. negotiators borrowed leverage from allies and erstwhile adversaries in bringing authoritarian regimes to make peace in Southern Africa (working with the British, Portuguese, and other Western allies as well as the Soviets, Cubans, Zambians, Congolese, Cape Verdeans, Mozambicans and the U.N. Secretariat), and to avert civil war in Ethiopia (working with Sweden, Britain, the Soviets, Israel, Sudan, and the Marxist-oriented rebel Eritrean and Tigrayan movements).

This is not a brand-new way of operating but one that could become more common in an age of multiple overlapping alignments where other states are partners on some issues and troublesome obstacles on others. It could also be less of a drain on the political capital available to presidents and secretaries of state. To work, it requires top level officials to delegate and a willingness to work closely with friends, partners, and other parties they wouldn’t want to bring home for dinner.

[dis--parity]

Kintsugi

The modelling world, for all the progress we as people have made in the past few decades, still leaves so much to be desired. For as much posturing has been done by the occasional fashion label for the sake of inclusivity, there are still so many fringe groups that remain underrepresented and undervalued in the modelling world. People of colour, disabled models, transgender and nonbinary models, people with and without muscle, scars, stretch marks - the imperfections of the body that, despite their nature, make us who we are. Give us identity and make us utterly unique.

Kintsugi is a modelling agency that aims to rright this wrong; our runway shows, catalogues, and endorsed fashion & beauty brands put a focus on the facets and imperfections that make us more beautiful than even we might see at first. Our models are carefully hand-picked to represent the entire spectrum of human experience, from physique to ableness to gender identity, and our endorsed fashion lines are those catered towards ease of access to help anyone and everyone feel as beautiful in their own bodies as they deserve to be. Some of the names you might recognise in our repertoire of wonderful people on the team include;

Midas (Endorsed cosmetics label)

Freshwater Fashion (Endorsed fashion label)

Krystyn Adrian  (Model, Polish, Klinefelter’s syndrome, male)

Vuqar Anar (Makeup artist, Azerbaijani, multiple sclerosis, male)

Yeong-Hui Han (Model, Korean, stretch marks & self-harm survivor, nonbinary)

Jason James (Model, British, type 2 diabetes, transgender man)

Sunan Mali (Makeup artist, Thai, OSDD, female)

Katelynn Berne (Model, American, scars & muscle, female)

Concepta Finola (Fashion Designer, Irish, paraplegia, transgender woman)

From the catwalk to the storefront, our mission is to inspire and uplift as many people as we can to be the best version of themselves they can be. We host our own modelling expos in collaboration with our endorsed fashion and cosmetics labels to bring out our models in their best form. Our models are well-taken care of, with a competitive rate of pay and royalties, and a healthcare plan designed to be tailored to all our models’ and artists’ needs in daily life - whether it be dialysis, medication, hormones, or even major surgeries!

Even you can be like the names we’ve just listed, if you have what it takes! We’re always looking for new beautiful people to bring to the catwalk, and new eras of representation to usher in. We advocate people of all races, gender identities, and physical makeup. If you’re interested in a career with us, please take a slip below with our contact details on it and submit your inquiry to us!

[ There’s only one slip left - with an email address and phone number on it. ]

[ Take it? ]

[macaroni-rascal]

hi thanks for your skating takes- i look forward to them- i have a question and an observation- what are the tall skaters who are more successful doing differently than the ones who look ungainly? like Hubbell/Donohue look stable and strong compared to say Koko, or for a younger, less experienced comparison, the Azerbaijani team (Ritter/Brykalov) out of IAM. and i noticed i had missed a bunch of your skating takes bc sometimes you tag them konner talk vs talks skating- now that i know, i can search them both, but more people might see them if you used one- not a criticism, just was happy to find a bunch i'd missed

Hello!! Thanks so much!

I think a lot of it has to do with partnering, like Maddie is 5’7 to Zack’s 6’2, while Mistato is 5’2 to Tim’s 6’1, so they aren’t as far apart in height, also, Maddie and Zack are both very very strong/muscled skaters with amazing core strength. I would also say that Zack’s center of gravity is lower than Tim’s. Tim has very long legs, while Zack has a longer torso. If you look at pictures of both teams standing side by side, H/D’s hips are far closer to each other than Koko’s:

So there is far less compensating for Zack to do. Tim really has to get down in his knees to match Misato, and that can look gangly, and if you don’t have solid control over the ice, it can be harder to control, and I personally don’t think Tim has stellar blade control.

That’s my take, anyway. ☺️✌️

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Feeling so POWERFUL AND STRONG after a GREAT PUMP!

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With so much of its attention consumed by the war in Ukraine, Russia has been unable to attend to much of its historic sphere of influence—particularly in the South Caucasus, where Moscow’s hold is fraying at the seams. On April 11, a new outbreak of violence in the 35-year-old, unresolved conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh left four Armenian and three Azerbaijani soldiers dead as the two sides exchanged artillery and machine gun fire.

The province, recognized as the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan under international law, was occupied by the Armenian military for 26 years following the end of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1994. Under the terms of the United Nations charter, Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory. But the province is also home to a large ethnic Armenian population that, as the Soviet Union was crumbling in 1988, unilaterally declared its independence from Azerbaijan.

After the first war in the province in the 1990s, which ended in Armenian victory and the expulsion of the Azeris, support from Yerevan allowed the separatists to enjoy a form of de-facto independence even though no country in the world, not even Armenia itself, officially recognized them. In 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed most of the territory that Armenia had occupied for the preceding quarter-century. After 44 days of fighting, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War ended in November 2020 with a cease-fire agreement brokered by the Russians.

The cease-fire was, on the surface, meant to make room for a formal peace agreement between the two neighbors. But many experts suspect that Russia, which is allied with Armenia, wanted to keep the conflict frozen—with a fragile cease-fire but no durable peace settlement. Any peace treaty was likely to favor Azerbaijan and weaken the Kremlin’s influence in the South Caucasus.

Last November, these suspicions were heightened following the appointment of the Armenia-born, Kremlin-linked oligarch Ruben Vardanyan as the unofficial “first minister” of the ethnic Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh. Under Vardanyan, peace talks stalled. However, his role as a spoiler came to a premature close in February, when he was unexpectedly sacked from his position by the separatists’ president, Arayik Harutyunyan.

The exact circumstances of his removal are unclear, but it was widely interpreted as a setback for Moscow. April’s clashes serve as further evidence that Russia is losing ability to maintain control over the region, where it has stationed 2,000 armed peacekeepers as per the terms of the cease-fire agreement. In an attempt to arrest this decline, the Kremlin appointed general Alexander Lentsov as the new head of its Nagorno-Karabakh peacekeeping force last week.

His appointment matters because Lentsov is one of Russia’s most experienced military figures, with his arrival a signal that Moscow is serious about reasserting its grip on the Caucasus. He has previously served as the head of the so-called joint center for cease-fire control, coordination, and stabilization in the Donbas following the first conflict in Ukraine in 2014, and has also been involved in Russia’s military operations in Chechnya, South Ossetia, and Syria in the past.

From a Western perspective, this is a worrying development: Each of those conflicts have ultimately ended on terms that favor Russia and run counter to Western values and interests. Lentsov’s arrival in Nagorno-Karabakh should therefore set off alarm bells in Washington, London, and Brussels.

It is widely accepted among regional experts that Russia seeks to act as a spoiler in the South Caucasus. A frozen conflict suits Moscow. It can lean on the unresolved grievances between Baku and Yerevan to heat up the standoff whenever such actions feel opportune. A peace agreement would also remove the need for Moscow’s peacekeepers in the province, which the Kremlin sees as essential to its projection of power over its near neighbors. Were the West to broker a settlement, it would also expand U.S. and European influence in a region that Moscow regards as its own backyard.

“Peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia will have many beneficial consequences for the United States and for Europe,” said Michael Doran, the director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute. “It will contribute to the energy security of Europe because it will open up the possibility of increasing oil and gas supplies from Azerbaijan and, potentially, from central Asia through Azerbaijan.” Doran adds that such an outcome would also “strengthen Georgia, which is in the interest of the United States. In general, peace carried out under the auspices of the United States is going to shift the balance against Russia in the South Caucasus.”

The timing of Lentsov’s appointment was telling: It came just four days before the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan were due in Washington for meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The “tangible progress” made at the talks is due to be followed up this weekend with another meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels, rehabilitating the U.S.-EU twin track process that made some gains last year before stalling.

The Americans are evidently aware of the benefits of reconciliation. However, inconsistent signals from European mediators have in the past led to accusations of bias from Azerbaijan, leaving the door open for Russia to obstruct the process. But with Moscow consumed by its war in Ukraine, which is expected to intensify this spring when Kyiv launches a new counteroffensive, the West needs to seize the opportunity to overstretch Russia on two fronts, pushing through a peace deal before Lentsov’s maneuvers muddy negotiations.

Such a peace deal must proceed from Armenia’s recognition that Nagorno-Karabakh is the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. Indeed, Pashinyan has recently signaled he is willing to do so —despite some flip-flopping owing to domestic nationalist pressure—removing the biggest obstacle to a peace deal since the end of the first conflict. In the past, Russia has tempted Armenia to Kremlin-led mediation by suggesting the status of the province should be left off the table for the foreseeable future. But this would be a red line for those in Baku.

However, following the 2020 conflict, the separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh are under pressure to negotiate their reintegration into the Azerbaijani state with Baku. The current peace process centers around how to do that and what assurances can be offered to the Armenians so that their rights as a minority group within Azerbaijan will be respected.

But having demonstrated its military superiority, almost all the leverage in negotiations rests with Azerbaijan—particularly as it knows that its position stands up under international law. In 1993, the U.N. Security Council passed four separate resolutions (numbers 822, 853, 874 and 884) demanding the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan. These resolutions were ignored by Yerevan. Baku, somewhat understandably, sees its victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War as a justified corrective measure that ended an illegal violation of its sovereignty. So, in that sense, it will be difficult to convince Azerbaijan to concede much in the negotiations—especially anything seeming to grant a special status for Armenians within the territory.

International actors must convince Armenia it should not miss the forest (a sustainable peace deal) for the trees (special status for the region’s Armenians), which is something it has no realistic—and certainly no legal—prospects of achieving.

Aside from snuffing out the danger of renewed violence, peace would bring economic benefits to both the Republic of Armenia and the ethnic separatists. Since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, Armenia has remained regionally isolated, with more than 80 percent of its borders closed—those with Azerbaijan to its east and those with Baku’s ally Turkey to its west. This has left Armenia’s only connections to the outside world being the border with Georgia to its north (its conduit to Russia) and a narrow border with Iran through mountainous territory to its south.

Regional reintegration would open Armenia to new trade and energy supplies, removing its overwhelming dependence on Russia. It could be linked to Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea gas reserves, whose pipelines to Europe currently snake around Armenia through Georgia. It could also be connected to Azerbaijan’s grid, benefiting from the soon-to-be exploited wind potential of the Caspian Sea.

As Europe’s energy needs increase, and with Russian supplies shut off, more capacity from the east will be needed. New pipelines, with their potential to later transport Caspian green hydrogen—a potentially renewable, green gas—to a more climate-conscious Europe, could run directly and more logically through Armenia from Azerbaijan—earning it the healthy transit fees that Georgia currently enjoys.

The same applies to freight lines. The only viable overland route runs through the South Caucasus; the others being through Iran and Russia. Cheaper and faster than shipping, train-freight capacity will need to be vastly expanded to deal with the growing trade. The region stands to gain from restoring its role as a bastion of commerce, as it once did in centuries past due to its position on the Silk Road. With open borders, Armenia could benefit from rising trade.

Similarly, the separatists stand to benefit. Since the fall of communism, Azerbaijan’s economic development has far outpaced that of its neighbor to the west. However, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh saw no benefits from this growth, as they were split off from the rest of the country. Since 2020, Baku has launched a huge rebuilding project in the province that could bring vast improvements to the material circumstances of the local Armenian community.

This community currently enjoys the worst of both worlds: It is neither part of Armenia nor Azerbaijan and exists in political limbo as an unrecognized pseudo-state. The separatists never achieved the autonomy they declared in 1988, given the lack of international support. Whether they admit it or not, that is now a lost cause. The only people who benefit from the current situation is the small, political elite that leads the secessionist cause. Ordinary people would benefit more from peace: Normalization of ties between Azerbaijan and Armenia would give Yerevan more influence in Baku to advocate for ethnic Armenians’ interests.

These facts are not lost on the Armenian government, and there have been signs that it is ready to do a deal. Pashinyan met with Aliyev at the inaugural summit of the European Political Community in Prague last year. Both leaders confirmed that their nations would recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and that the United Nations’ 1991 Alma-Ata declaration would serve as the basis for border delimitation discussions. Pashinyan has been more willing to engage with Baku than any of his predecessors, but his commitment to the peace process has proved erratic. To keep him focused, Western actors should step in where necessary to offer him incentives to get a peace agreement over the line.

Russia has also traditionally been Armenia’s main security guarantor. However, its credibility on this front has taken a severe hit since 2020, as Moscow proved incapable of supporting the Armenians in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. As a result, Pashinyan has become public in his criticisms of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. The West should seek to exploit the strained ties by driving a further wedge through its mediation, particularly when so much of Russia’s political bandwidth is being eaten up on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. This would also serve to reduce Lentsov’s room for maneuver to sabotage the fragile peace process.

By diminishing the Kremlin’s influence in the region, Yerevan will have leeway to build closer security ties with the West and strengthen cooperation with neighboring Georgia and Azerbaijan, neither of which have anything to gain from Russia’s grip over the South Caucasus. Because, as Lentsov’s appointment shows, Moscow has no carrots to offer, which is why it is forced to reach for the stick.

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[armeniaitn]

The Geopolitical and Energy Security Dimensions of the Latest Armenian-Azerbaijani Clashes

New Post has been published on https://armenia.in-the.news/politics/the-geopolitical-and-energy-security-dimensions-of-the-latest-armenian-azerbaijani-clashes-41191-30-07-2020/

The Geopolitical and Energy Security Dimensions of the Latest Armenian-Azerbaijani Clashes

There are currently three major zones of possible escalations between Russia and Turkey: the Levantine zone in Syria, the Mediterranean zone in Libya, and the Caucasian zone between Armenia and Azerbaijan. All of these zones are interconnected with each other. The latest Azerbaijani provocation against Armenia must be looked at from a geopolitical and energy security dimension amid the regional struggle between Moscow and Ankara.

On July 12, 2020, Azerbaijani armed forces attempted an incursion into Armenia. Armenian military positions in that border area are based on a static defensive posture reinforced by a combination of fortified terrain and topography, thereby enjoying the strategic advantage over Azerbaijani forces. It is worth mentioning that the attack was a clear violation of the sovereignty of a recognized state and was 300 kilometers away from the borders of the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh). The move started with a failed attempt by Azerbaijani commandos to seize a strategic hilltop in the northeastern Armenian province of Tavush, where Armenian troops were in a defensive position. After the attack, the Armenian response intensified as the Azerbaijani army used Israeli-made drones to bomb Armenian positions. For the first time, Armenia used domestically-produced drones against Azerbaijani military targets. Azerbaijani army Major-General Polad Gashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzoyev and dozens of soldiers and officers were killed in Armenian retaliations. Here we should ask the following questions. What were these high level military personnel doing around the border? Was Baku preparing for a major offensive? From a military and psychological point of view, the killing of an Azerbaijani major general and his associates was a quick shock to demoralize the Azerbaijani troops on the ground and send shockwaves to Baku. 

The killing of the high level officials heightened tensions and appeared to raise fears within the ruling elite and autocrats of Baku. State-sponsored protests took place in Baku calling to end the lockdown and arm the people to “liberate the occupied Azerbaijani lands”; ironically, of the 30-thousand protesters, only 150 were registered as volunteers to go to the border. President Ilham Aliyev was furious. Meanwhile, the anti-Armenian protests took a violent turn when angry protesters clashed with the police, burned their cars and stormed the parliament calling “death to Armenians.” Aliyev openly condemned the move against the parliament and portrayed it as an “attempted coup d’etat” orchestrated by the opposition. Aliyev scored two major goals: first, he showed Moscow and Western powers that his war was “popular and legitimate and he is acting on behalf of the will of the people;” and second, he wanted to eliminate the opposition by portraying them as the enemy of the state. According to Eurasianet (July 17, 2020), Baku authorities detained more than 70 activists and journalists, including seven political activists from the leading opposition “Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan” (PFPA). President Aliyev commented on the arrests saying “they are worse than Armenians… Armenians are an open enemy…While these are located among us. They get money, instructions from abroad, pollute our fresh air with stench and at these moments are standing with the enemy, not with the state.”

Aliyev’s intent was to divert the peoples’ attention from falling oil prices, unemployment, a water shortage and corruption in an attempt to get rid of his old political rivals and even traditional allies. Many Azerbaijani youths are frustrated by the diplomatic track around the Artsakh negotiations and fed up with the empty promises of the “Aliyev dynasty.” This frustration with diplomacy and mediation triggered the dismissal of Azerbaijan’s long-serving foreign minister Elmar Mammadyarov on July 16 for allegedly being too timid and weak in the negotiations. Already on July 15, Azerbaijani social media was full of attacks against the country’s “failure in diplomacy.” Mammadyarov, however, was only carrying out the orders and executing the policies of Aliyev. His replacement by Education Minister Jeihun Bayramov, who has no diplomatic experience whatsoever, further indicates that Baku will no longer adhere to diplomatic principles and will rely on the use of force to divert the peoples’ attention from socio-economic demands and mobilize the youth against Armenia. An internal power struggle that started earlier this year with a snap parliamentary election in Baku saw the elevation of a new, younger loyal elite and its replacement of the experienced “old Soviet-educated guards.” This state-sponsored transition featured the promotion of presidential assistant and former Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Hikmet Hajiyev to new head of the Foreign Policy Affairs department of the Presidential administration and the promotion of many loyal officials close to Vice-President Mehriban Aliyeva (President Aliyev’s wife) to new key positions.  

Cover of “Dirilis Postasi” depicting southern Armenia and Artsakh as completely annexed to Azerbaijan

The recruitment of these young officials further institutionalized the spread of anti-Armenianism amongst the youth. This strategy was translated on the ground in April 2020 when the “Western Azerbaijan Exiled Government” was formed in Ankara. By analyzing the Twitter posts of “Western Azerbaijan Public Union” and the “chairman of the Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-Karabakh” MP Tural Ganjaliyev, one could have assumed that the next battle was going to be with Armenia and not Artsakh. In the last few months, Azerbaijani state-sponsored social media accounts and pages unleashed extensive propaganda claiming that the territories of the Republic of Armenia also are part of “historical Azerbaijan unjustly taken away from Azeris by the Russians and given to Armenians.” Eventually, it became clear that Baku authorities were laying the groundwork to psychologically prepare their youth for the next battle as well as future battles or wars. Azerbaijan’s Pan-Turkist aspirations are not secret. Pan-Turkists believe that the territories stretching from Eastern Europe, Central Asia and some parts of Russia, Iran and China belong to their ancestors, and it is their right to reconquer these lands by arms. Amid the border clashes, the Turkish “Dirilis Postasi” outlet published a cover with a map of Artsakh and the Armenian province of Synuk and most of Vayots Dzor merged into Azerbaijan with the title “Karabakh or Death.” These aspirations are also encouraged by Turkey, where in 2019 during military drills with Azerbaijan, participants wore a badge showing the maps of Turkey and Azerbaijan as unified and depicting the regions of Ararat, Kotayk, Armavir, Aragatsotn, Shirak, Lori, Syunik, Meghri and Artsakh in Azerbaijan. The adherents of this ideology dream of the creation of a unified Turkic state extending from the Bosphorus to the Xinjiang province of China.

The badge of Turkish-Azerbaijani troops during the military drills in May 2019

Coming back to geopolitics, the recent clashes may usher in a new period of unpredictability and instability and involve Turkey, Iran and Russia. The Turkish response was an immediate endorsement of Azerbaijan’s claims. With the rise of Turkey as a regional power, the balance of power in the South Caucasus and the Middle East gradually started to shift in Ankara’s favor. Turkey started to flex its muscles both through its soft and hard power engagements in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya and even Yemen. Although Ankara’s support of Baku can be seen as natural, the sudden and swift backing of Azerbaijan stems more from Ankara’s aspirations to regain its previous role as Azerbaijan’s primary military patron. According to Hurriyet Daily News (July 17, 2020), İsmail Demir, head of the Presidency of Defense Industries, after meeting with Azerbaijani Deputy Defense Minister Ramiz Tahirov and Army Commander of the “Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic” Kerem Mustafayev, announced “Turkey’s missiles, drones at Azerbaijan’s service.” Some military experts started predicting that Turkey would provide Azerbaijan with the famous Bayraktar Akıncı armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). These drones proved their effectiveness in Libya and Syria against Russian-made anti-air defense systems. By doing so, Ankara would further antagonize Moscow, which has been the largest arms provider to Azerbaijan for several years.

But were all these clashes and Ankara’s enthusiasm for war a coincidence?

In June, the Nordic Monitor published reports exposing the plan of a possible Turkish invasion on Greece and Armenia. The report showed confidential slides from a PowerPoint presentation presented by the Turkish General Staff for an internal planning review. The documents were discovered in a court case file in Ankara. This military operation against Armenia was code-named “Altay.” The provocation around Tavush and Nakhichevan should be viewed from this angle too. Turkey has no military base in the South Caucasus; thus the Azerbaijani provocation against Armenia and the counter-offensive against Azerbaijani military posts by the Armenian armed forces could have been the pretext Turkey was waiting for to launch a limited offensive or strikes. If the Armenian armed forces infiltrated deep or bombed the pipelines, Turkey could have deployed its army in Nakhichevan or around Tavush under the pretext of “securing Turkey’s and Europe’s energy or national security interests.” However, Ankara and Baku failed to reach their aim since the Armenian army limited its counter-offensive and calculated the consequences of such a plan that would have driven the entire region into a war. Let’s not forget that from May 1-2, 2019, Baku and Ankara started joint tactical live-fire military exercises in Nakhichevan. According to the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan, the joint exercises involved “troops, armored vehicles, artillery mounts and mortars, combat and transport helicopters, as well as air defense units and anti-aircraft missile units of both armies.” In the same month in 2020, Baku launched large-scale military exercises around the Artsakh frontline. In response, the Armenian army organized military drills along the border.

Pipelines and railroads in South Caucasus

When it comes to energy security, it is important to mention that the Tavush area lies on major energy, railway and trade routes that link Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and connect Europe to Central Asia and China without direct involvement from Russia and Iran. The location of the clashes was quite interesting. All the west-bound oil and gas pipelines and railroads pass through the same corridor, often parallel to each other and in close proximity to target areas.

What significance does the Tavush area have to Turkey and Europe with regards to energy security? First, the region is Azerbaijan’s gateway to Turkey in terms of energy, rail and transit routes. Azerbaijan’s South Caucasus Pipeline (ASCP) runs nearby, carrying gas to the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANGP) in Turkey. These pipelines were constructed aiming to reduce Turkey’s and Europe’s gas dependence on Moscow. Moreover, the area is pivotal also to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad, two major joint projects that Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey have accomplished through European support and America’s blessing. In other words, the area is crucial for Baku’s energy exports to Europe and the only land route that links Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia. In this context, it is also important to understand and analyze that Turkey wants to become an important energy corridor hub that bypasses Russia. By accomplishing this dream, the European Union’s (EU) politics in the future will be highly dependent on Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation and a stable geopolitical environment (mostly in favor of Baku) in the South Caucasus.

Second, it is worth mentioning that in March and April 2020, for the first time, Azerbaijan surpassed Russia in terms of gas supplies to Turkey. For the past few years, Turkey has reduced its reliance on Russian gas imports. In 2019, for example, Russian gas accounted for 33 percent of Turkey’s gas imports, down from 52 percent in 2017, as Ankara started to diversify its energy supply roots mainly from Africa. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan played a significant role in Turkey’s energy security independence where the giant Trans-Anatolian pipeline, completed in 2019 and with an annual capacity to carry 16 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas to Turkey, is being linked to southern Europe via the soon-to-be constructed Trans-Adriatic Pipeline. According to Metin Gurcan (al-Monitor, July 22, 2020), these two non-Russian pipelines passing from the vicinity of Tavush could cover about half of Turkey’s demand and 15 percent of that of Europe. The inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in 2006 enabled Azerbaijan to export oil to international markets via the strategic port of Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Furthermore, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline which became operational in 2017, allowed for an increase to the supply of Azeri gas to Georgia and Turkey. Now thanks to the Trans-Anatolian pipeline, Azerbaijan can sell gas to the EU and reduce the Russian giant Gazprom’s monopoly on delivering gas to the EU, hence raising eyebrows in Moscow. Turkey’s gas deal with Russia expires next year, and for this reason, little progress has been made on a renewal, which raises the prospect of deepening the Azeri-Turkish partnership after 2021. Nevertheless, even though Gazprom is likely to remain Turkey’s primary gas supplier in the near future, Ankara is trying to strengthen its bargaining position by signing maritime agreements with its allies in Western Libya and extracting gas from occupied Northern Cyprus, thus raising the prospects of regional wars in the Eastern Mediterranean with Greece and Egypt and clashing with Russia’s energy interests there.

In summary, the geopolitical pressures and the military escalation may grow around Tavush and expand towards Nakhichevan in order to attract Turkish military deployment in the South Caucasus, thus directly threatening Russian energy interests. To counter this, Armenia must play a strategic and proactive role in future energy projects in the region by accomplishing the construction of the North-South highway that connects Iran to Georgia. This highway in the future can play the role of a corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to Russia or Europe. If the EU and China realize this potential corridor is far from geopolitical risks, then it would attract foreign investment, bringing further stability and providing Yerevan a strong bargaining position in foreign policymaking and Artsakh’s conflict resolution. Finally, Armenia’s diplomatic corps must engage in proactive foreign policy when it comes to recognition of the Republic of Artsakh in European states. For Armenia, sending peaceful messages while simultaneously preparing for war is mandatory to force the autocrats of Baku to recognize the democratic and peaceful aspirations of the Armenians of the Republic of Artsakh. As the famous Latin author Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus once said, “Si vis pacem, para bellum” (If you want peace, prepare for war).

Preventing la Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border, July 24, 2020 (International Crisis Group)

Yeghia Tashjian

Yeghia Tashjian is a regional analyst and researcher. He has graduated from the American University of Beirut in Public Policy and International Affairs. He pursued his BA at Haigazian University in Political Science in 2013. He founded the New Eastern Politics forum/blog in 2010. He was a Research Assistant at the Armenian Diaspora Research Center at Haigazian University. Currently, he is the Regional Officer of Women in War, a gender-based think tank. He has participated in international conferences in Frankfurt, Vienna, Uppsala, New Delhi, and Yerevan, and presented various topics from minority rights to regional security issues. His thesis topic was on China’s geopolitical and energy security interests in Iran and the Persian Gulf. He is a contributor to the various local and regional newspapers and presenter of the “Turkey Today” program in Radio Voice of Van.

Latest posts by Yeghia Tashjian (see all)

Read original article here.

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From watching eternal fire to relaxation – here are 10 things to do on your honeymoon to Azerbaijan.

A blend of modern-day marvels, strange natural phenomenon and mysterious historical sites, Azerbaijan is a hidden honeymoon gem. Though the country had been largely unknown to travelers, it is quickly finding its spot on the radars of couples who love to explore off-beat and undiscovered locations.

Azerbaijan is a country that is rich in one-of-a-kind experiences, and we recommend checking some of these out before you zero in on your honeymoon destination. Direct flights from Delhi to the capital of Azerbaijan – the city of Baku make honeymoon dreams even more accessible.

Click here to learn more about Azerbaijan and to plan an unforgettable honeymoon to ‘The Land of Fire’.

The post Amazing Wonders of Azerbaijan! appeared first on WeddingSutra Blog.

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Armenia’s Defense Ministry said Azerbaijani forces launched a cross-border attack targeting its military positions early thursday. forces on Thursday morning, shelling several settlements.

ED means a man is unable to achieve or sustain an erection firm enough. A simple test of early-morning testosterone levels will usually help.

Early on, our libidos were well-matched. he began experiencing erectile dysfunction. The little blue pill hasn’t helped and the other option is him getting a shot in his penis every time.

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What is the occasional/ situational erectile dysfunction?. of erection is affected even during masturbation and eventually all morning erections are lost.. erection problems can be easily treated today, as long as one asks for help early.

CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida – The first astronauts launched by Elon Musk’s SpaceX company departed the International Space Station on Saturday night for the final and most important part of their.

So early on there was this association between. when husbands charged with erectile dysfunction, were obliged to prove their virility before witnesses. A very graphic and interesting discussion.

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, 20Karacan I. Clinical value of nocturnal erection in the prognosis and diagnosis of impotence. Med Aspects Hum Sex 1970; 27: 382.]. The.

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Problems with erections are relatively common in the general population and the cause of your symptoms may be unrelated to MS. Factors that can affect sexual.

The Jerusalem municipality on Sunday cleared away a protest site near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s official residence, confiscating equipment in an early morning raid. Protesters.

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[expertfeedly]

5 Things To Know About Eva Andressa.

From slim teens to global fitness icons, Eva Andressa paid the price due for a fitness trip. The unique photo of Eva Andressa caused great admiration.

Eva Andressa seeks to sculpt one of the greatest fitness in the fitness industry, which has inspired millions of people to achieve their goals.

"We can all fulfill our dreams, no matter how likely they may be."

Through fitness, Eva Andress has created a successful career as a fitness model, professional bikini athlete, and an online sensation.

Eva is one of the most popular fitness models in the world. The healthy girl attracted many followers in all of her social media accounts.

Natural name - Eva Andresa Vieira Nascimento

Nickname - Eva

Age-Eva Andressa is 35 years old according to her birth date, 19 December 1984.

Height - 5 feet 5 inches or 165 cm

Inner Weight 135-145 lbs (61.2 - 65.8 kg)

Bust // Waist // Hip-40 inches-109 cm // 27 inches-69 cm // 44 inches-121 cm

The birthplace - Curitiba, Brazil

Nationality - Brazil

Profession - professional bikini athlete, fitness model

Achievement

Spring

2005 Brazil, Rufo Bravo Cup champion, photo 1 Brazil, 2006, number one

2006 Brazil, Parana, People, First Place

IFBB-

2008 Brazil, bodybuilding, first place 2009 Peru, South American champion, bodybuilding, third place

2009 Brazil's national champion, bodybuilding

Biography of Eva Andressa

1. Start a fitness journey of Eva Andressa

Eva Andressa was born and raised in Curitiba, Brazil, and she is a very skinny girl.

Eva feels insecure about her fitness, and this increased insecurity as teenagers arrived.

The slim shape of Eva Andressa made her look much smaller than embarrassing her.

I started exercising to gain muscle and develop a thicker body.

2. Eva before her turn

Andressa got off to a tough start on the 17-year-old fitness journey. In addition to basic fitness knowledge, she does not have a fitness trainer.

For Eva, training was very difficult, and she left the gym in the first month. Eva Andressa still wants to sculpt her dream.

3. Eva Andressa Meeting with the husband

Eva Andressa met her future husband, Jardin Barros after she left for fitness.

Lovebirds are dating soon. Jardin Barros happens athletically, giving Eva the motivation and training needed to change his body.

4. Fitness competition

First contest: After a year of continuous training, Eva Andressa is formed.

Because of her quick turnaround, Eva decided to start playing as an athlete. She is passionate about her fitness career prospects.

Eva Andressa believes she has the right genetics to develop unique fitness.

In 2005, Eva participated in her first competition, the NABBA Lobo Bravo Cup in Brazil under the guidance of her husband. Eva Andressa became the heroine of the character.

Eva's first match with the husband and coach

At the age of only 21, she became famous in the fitness industry. But Eva Andressa just started.

5. More games / competition

Eva Andressa worked hard after the first game. She continued to work hard in the gym and improved her body in the following months.

Because of her ambitious nature, Eva Andressa has now begun to invade the people. She participated in the 2006 NABBA Parana Championship in Brazil.

Eva added more accolades to the trophy cabinet and ranked first in the competition.

Eva Andressa became the champion of the national figure.

In 2007, she worked hard and decided to take a short break in the game.

Eva Andressa spent a year participating in fitness shows, but she was still very active in the gym.

IFBB Champion

At the age of 24, Eva Andressa started the game again after a well-deserved break. Eva has been physically and mentally rehabilitated and is now focused on winning bigger fitness offers.

She participated in the IFBB fitness competition held in Brazil in 2008. Eva Andressa performed well and copied her previous achievements, ranking first in the high-level show.

She participated in more competitions and became the general champion of the 2009 IFBB Competition. Eva Andressa ranked third in the IFBB South America Championship.

Eva Andressa Fitness model

She realized her dream when she was twenty-five years old. Despite her little income, she has invaded many fitness shows.

Eva Andressa continued her fitness journey and found her financial support as a fitness model.

She has accumulated a suitable fan base and connections and thus has succeeded in becoming a fitness model. Eva Andressa soon became a symbol in the fitness industry, especially in Brazil, as a synonym for nutrition companies.

TV and Magazine Features 

Soon the media noticed Eva Andressa and appeared on the famous Brazilian TV show, Programa Joe.

The show made Eva a household name in Brazil and caused a sensation on the Internet. Eva Andressa remains committed to reaching a new level in the fitness industry.

In the following years, she appeared in many international magazines. This earned her the much-needed global recognition.

Eva Andressa (Eva Andressa) has become a symbol in the global fitness industry, with powerful and enviable social media.

Create her own TV show

Since 2014 Eva Andressa has strived to inspire thousands of people around the world to achieve fitness goals through motivation letters, training, and nutritional advice.

Dica Fitness was launched in 2015 to attract more people and spread its knowledge. On her TV show, Eva interviewed famous athletes and talked about their fitness journey.

Training and exercise Eva Andressa

Eva does not have a specific exercise plan. Its course depends mainly on how you feel on a particular day.

Eva Andressa always completes 4 sets at a time. She failed to train and had no specific actors.

On the days that I participated, Andressa trained twice a day, without rest days. Mainly involved in aerobic exercises, and she exercises at least 40 minutes each time.

Eva Andressa now trains only 3 times a week. Interestingly, Eva stopped working on her chest, biceps, and triceps head when she started modeling. The fitness model parts are its ideal size.

Eva Andressa Nutrition and diet Plan

During the competition, Eva Andressa strictly adheres to diet to ensure good health. Even if she stops the game, she will still be monitoring her diet.

The goal of Eva Andressa is to maintain about 12% of body fat. During Christmas, Eva only takes part in cheat days twice a year.

Eva Andressa's diet plan revolves around lean protein, fresh fruits, and vegetables.

Eva consumed carbohydrates until 6 pm when she turned to protein and vegetables.

Eva Andressa regularly takes nutritional supplements and is preferred by glutamine and whey protein. She firmly believes that the diet plan should be based on the diet that increases your body.

From a healthy start for teens to the beginning of IFBB athletes and fitness models, Eva overcame all kinds of difficulties during the trip. Eva Andressa insists on giving 100% of her dedication during her fitness journey.

Eva Andressa is a Brazilian fitness model with 5.2 million followers on Instagram, and her latest update is heating up social media platforms.

In the photo, the dark-haired beauty appears in the pool, swaying her thin bikini, showing her cleavage and silhouette to her.

She matched the look with a pair of retro glasses and kept her hair in a low ponytail and put corn strands in front.

As the investigation committee mentioned, Eva recently attracted attention at the expense of another fitness model. In a photo taken with Azerbaijani bombs, steam Nabieva, both of whom showed his net legs as if carved in marble.

Since its launch, this image has received nearly 130,000 likes, in the comments fans have admired their impressive body.

According to Iron Iron, Eva is not well known and known in the world of bodybuilding/fitness models.

When I started training at the age of 17, I quit for a month. However, the article explains that this is not due to a lack of motivation, but because it does not have a coach or sufficient knowledge of sports.

However, when she met the future and mathematical husband, Jardel Barros, destiny interfered. They started training together and gave her guidance to help her build her body and self-confidence.

She continued to participate in the first 21-year-old bodybuilding show and won the cup.

As Iron Iron said, Eva participated in a competition called Body Fitness and won multiple championships, which strengthened her position in the Brazilian domestic and foreign competition circles.

Since then, she has shifted her focus from competition to modeling and entertainment. In 2009, she obtained an endorsement agreement from a sports nutrition company.

A year later, she was recruited into a popular TV program in Brazil, which made her famous. Later, she aired her TV show Dica Fitness on TV.

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[olympicgames-en]

Marieke Vervoort: Paralympian ends life through euthanasia at age of 40

#OlympicGames #London2012 [Panorama]Vervoort, who won gold and silver at the London 2012 Paralympics, and two further medals at Rio 2016, had an incurable degenerative muscle disease. Azerbaijani television channel Real TV has ...