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tarhalindur · 3 years ago

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2021 NFL Predictions

Man, as someone who occasionally spends too much time thinking about the NFL (football: the closest thing American sports have to a turn-based strategy game) and trying to predict how its season will go it occurs to me: why do all this work in my head and not write it up? So, here goes nothing:

(Terminology note: “true talent” = estimate of how many games I would expect the team to win given average luck and schedule. The categories are derived off the old 16-game schedule because that’s what I was drawing off of and I’ll need to see how the new schedule plays to calibrate the break points now: as it is, “Super Bowl contender”: true-talent 12-13 wins or better (in 16 games); “division contender”: 10-12 wins; “wild card contender": 7-10 wins, with 9-10 being “upper end” and 7-8 being “low end”; everyone below that is bad.)

- The AFC South got fucked by the scheduling gods (they drew the AFC East and NFC West, likely the two deepest divisions in the NFL), and I will be quite surprised if any team in it gets a wild card. (Let’s take an upper-case outcome and assume the second-place team in the division sweeps two terrible teams and splits with the division champ. That’s five wins. Assume the Jets are terrible too and that’s six. And then... what? Barring a Kliff implosion and/or the Rams rolling injuries to the stars on their stars-and-scrubs roster the worst team in the NFC West should be at least true-talent seven wins. New England could be trash if Mac is bad or gets injured now that Hoyer is their best backup, but otherwise every non-Jets team in the AFC East is true-talent nine wins or better. Cross-divisional? Not likely unless the Colts implode due to injuries and Jacksonville does massively better than expected - they get the Bengals and Broncos, and the Falcons might also count depending on whether that team hits its fail states. The AFC South would even have a hard time benefiting if both the Browns and Chargers implode, because the third place team last year is the one team basically guaranteed to be terrible in Houston. A wild card isn’t impossible, but it needs a whole lot of dice rolls to go in a team’s favor either on the field or between games - which is by definition not likely.)

- The NFC North also gets an uphill climb to a wild card. They rolled the NFC West, the AFC North, and the new cross-conference against the AFC West, an absolutely brutal set. Getting a wild card out of that probably needs at least 4-2 in the division (probably needs exactly one of CHI/MIN to implode, though sniping a game off Green Bay also works) and some good fortune either in games that should be close in true talent or in events elsewhere (the easy road involves at least two implosions in CLE/PIT/ARI).

- The AFC East probably gets a wild card. They rolled the AFC South (likely 2-3 games where you’re heavily favored if you’re even a wild card contender) and the NFC South (admittedly not free, but NO and CAR are both probably winnable and while I’m high on the Falcons they have significant downside risk - there’s also the possibility that Father Time finally gets to the far side of his near-Brady experience), plus the Jets and the new cross-conference game against the NFC East. Worlds where the AFC East doesn’t get a wild card probably involve both multiple implosions in the AFC North and West and at least one of Coach of the Year Robert Saleh and OROY Zach Wilson.

- The AFC West probably gets a wild card? They rolled the other likely weak division in the NFC East, which goes a long way, and frankly there’s enough teams with implosion risk in the AFC North and West (CLE, DEN, maybe LAR, maybe PIT) that it’s probably going to happen to someone.

- The NFC East... they’re probably exporting a whole bunch of wins as well? Not a guarantee, though, I could actually see them get a wild card if there’s enough implosions in either the NFC South or the AFC West.

- The AFC North might be the highest-variance division in football. If they hit the high end they’re absolutely stacked, but there’s a real risk the Browns are fool’s gold (I think they were a true-talent 8-8 team last year that lucked into one of the easiest schedules in years, the question is how much they improved) and that Father Time gets The Older Rapist enough to knock the Steelers down to a true-talent 8 win team (have a hard time seeing them go further down with Mike Tomlin’s team-building, though admittedly they might underperform that given Tomlin’s occasional issues with not covering certain receivers and looking past bad teams on the road). One thing’s for sure: I don’t think there’s enough wins for all of the AFC North, AFC West, and NFC North to get wild cars.

- The NFC South has one good team (barring Father Time finally getting Brady, one that should be decent (Payton isn’t a bad coach), and two that could be anywhere from wild-card contenders to outright collapses. Note that with the Easts and Souths playing each other this year, there’s too many wins for both the NFC East and NFC South to whiff wild cards unless both divisions seriously export wins to the AFC (in which case the AFC North has an uphill climb and there’s a pretty good chance that the AFC East gets two wild cards and the other goes to the AFC West).

(Bonus under the cut: individual team thoughts!)

- Bills: Should be in the playoffs and are the division favorites, but slightly more downside than they’re getting credit for. The problems are twofold: what should have been the second most favorable schedule in the division (because the likely best teams in both the AFC North and NFC East did not finish first last year) is salted by the schedule gods taking away: they draw Pittsburgh in the season opener so are the single most likely team to face a full-strength The Older Rapist, and they draw Washington in September as well maximizing the chance that they get Fitzpatrick before he inevitably turns back into a pumpkin. (Fitzpatrick playing out of his mind and beating the Bills mostly singlehandedly and getting Team fans’ hopes up before dashing them would be peak Fitzpatrick...) More to the point, their early schedule is PIT, @MIA, WAS, HOU, @KC, @TEN; it’s not out of the question they start 2-4 or even 1-5 going into the bye if the stars really align against them, and at that point locker room morale becomes a factor.

- Dolphins: Wild card contender (true talent roughly 10 wins), could be more if Tua really develops or the Bills stumble. Good news: they dodge KC and instead get the Raiders in a quite winnable game, on top of the common AFC East schedule, and now they get the Giants (who I suspect are the worst team in the NFC East) as well. More good news: like, the worst Miami is doing against the Pats is a split, right? Bad news: they face Baltimore.

- Patriots: With Cam gone and Hoyer (a second-tier backup at this point) the presumptive backup the Pats are suddenly one of the highest-variance teams in the league. If Mac Jones is good immediately they’re a division contender, and if he’s even a competent game manager they’re another true-talent 10-win wild card contender given that run game and possibly that front seven as well. If he’s bad or gets injured, however, they now might very well wind up with a top 10 pick. Which might actually be part of the point, on top of doing a vet a solid and avoiding any locker room issues? In a weird sense Belichick is unconstrained by job security in a way no other NFL coach is; he doesn’t have unlimited job security... but he’s also nearly 70, and if the rebuild fails then by the time his seat would really be getting hot he’s probably considering retiring anyways. So he’s playing with house money. It’s not likely, but don’t be shocked if the Pats pull what Arizona did a few years back and draft a first-round QB two years in a row - it’s definitely an option if Mac is terrible.

- Jets: Not out of the question as a dark horse if Zach Wilson is good, I’ve been getting good vibes off of Saleh. Problem is the combination of their division and injury issues; I’m not sure they have the roster to overcome that yet.

- Steelers: Basically covered above. If Big Ben aka The Older Rapist is still above average they’re a wild card contender or even an outright division contender again; if Father Time gets him and they’re stuck with Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins-level play at QB they probably still win a few games because Mike Tomlin is not a bad coach but they have an uphill climb.

- Baltimore: The one obvious division contender in the AFC North, given a very good quarterback and one of the five best coaches in the league. Admittedly their OC is potentially a question mark, but they should get back to the playoffs.

- Cleveland: Actually hard to tell. There’s two offsetting issues here. First, as mentioned above their schedule was soft as fuck last year and that’s unlikely to still be the case. On the other hand, I think there’s a decent chance they take a step forward this year. Ceiling is about where their record was last year barring a massive leap, floor is a 7-8 win team unless a bunch of other teams hit their upside at Cleveland’s expense.

- Bengals: Depends on how good and/or healthy Burrow is, but they probably finish last in the division regardless. Low-end wild card contender if everything goes right?

- Titans: The one team in the AFC South that should actually be good. Exactly how good depends on things like “did they overuse Derrick Henry last year?” and “is the defense any good at all?”, but the fail state here is a true-talent wild card contender in a likely soft division.

- Colts: Depends on two questions: can they get Wentz back to anything resembling 2018 form, and do they keep getting bit by the injury bug? AFAICT the core roster is of the classic “quarterback away” type with good D and a decent running game (see also this year: Denver, Washington, possibly Carolina, Pats if Mac Jones doesn’t pan out). The best case is that they can reclaim Wentz and the injury bug is done with them for the year, in which case they challenge TEN for the division. Worst case Wentz is bad and/or injured and half their roster is on IR, in which case they get a top-10 pick and the AFC East and NFC West are even more likely to get wild cards than they were already.

- Texans: Obvious tire fire, and not just on the field at this point. Problem is the tire fire includes both the new owner and his favorite exec, so they’re likely to remain a tire fire for a while...

- Jaguars: Probably depends on how good Trevor Lawrence is and how quickly, especially since I suspect Urban Meyer is at higher-than-usual risk of flaming out. Best case they’re a true-talent 8 win team that might manage to take advantage of a soft-ish schedule to challenge for the seventh seed. Otherwise look for them to export wins.

- Chiefs: Obvious Super Bowl contender is obvious, barring a Mahomes injury they’re the presumptive division favorite and near-locks for the playoffs.

- Raiders: I’m high on Carr (solid Tier 2 quarterback IMO, on par with someone like Tannehill and I’d take him over Kirk Cousins - and probably Baker Mayfield, too, though maybe not since Mayfield has less track record and thus higher upside). I’m considerably less sold on Gruden, and have doubts about what he’s done to the roster. Still should be a wild-card contender.

- Chargers: How much of last year’s late-season run was fool’s gold? Not sure. Could be all, could be none. IIRC they replaced their head coach, so that hole is at least possibly filled. Herbert is probably good, though I want another season of track record to be confident. The real problem here is that they still seem to be connected to some Indian burial ground somewhere. Upside is division contender, downside is 6 wins or so.

- Broncos: QB-away team in a bad division for it. At least they get the NFC East, but I suspect they finish out of the playoffs again this year.

(Interlude: A general thing to note about the NFC is that due to two QB injuries and one QB retirement there is exactly one team that finished first place in their division last year that I expect to be the best true-talent team in their division this year. Worse, due to the aforementioned injuries two teams I expect to be the best or at worst second-best in their divisions finished third and fourth in their divisions last year, respectively. This is throwing a giant monkey wrench in the usual SOS-based scheduling balance.)

- Football Team: The Football Team has the kind of defense that’s a characteristic of the QB-away team. There’s two differences between the Team and the usual suspect, however. First, I’m not entirely sure how good their line and thus running game will be. Second, and more importantly, the usual QB-away team has a consistently mediocre medium-to-high floor, low-ceiling quarterback. The Football Team, by way of contrast, has Ryan Fitzpatrick, arguably the single highest-variance QB of the last two decades, a man who will absolutely win you games you should have lost… and lose you games you should have won. Also, he’s in his upper 30s and thus at risk of Father Time coming for his NFL career. So, the questions: how many games do you get Fitzmagic and how many do you get Fitztragic? If the usual cycle applies, when exactly does he turn back into a pumpkin? And is the division + the lower end of the NFC South soft enough that it doesn’t matter?

- Giants: Probably the worst team in their division, and my pick for the most likely second-worst team in the NFC. I don’t like Daniel Jones, I don’t like most of the rest of the roster, and their coach is unimpressive.

- Cowboys: Remember those quarterback injuries I was talking about? Right. The ‘Boys are not without flaws – the defense is notoriously questionable (though by preseason reports they may actually have drafted a difference-maker of a linebacker this year) and Mike McCarthy may well be a downgrade compared to Jason Garrett. But barring another injury (eyes Dak’s shoulder nervously) they have a QB (I’m a bit low on Dak relative to most people, but in this case “low” still means a Tier 2 quarterback roughly on par with Derek Carr), and they should have an offense. Barring a Jalen Hurts breakout or Fitzpatrick rolling Fitzmagic for most of the year, with a healthy Dak this is at worst a wild-card contender in a weak division and thus the presumptive favorites for the division title.

- Eagles: Oof. This team is hard to judge, mostly because AFAICT they’re a weird superposition of potentially very good and potentially complete trash (that’s also spelled “very high variance”). The issues are twofold: they have a largely untested starting quarterback who was roughly average last year but might develop (the aforementioned Hurts), and they have quite a few very good but aging players on the roster. Best case, Hurts plays like a Tier 2 or even Tier 1 quarterback, the rest of the roster holds, and they’re in contention for the division title and/or a wild card slot. Worst case, Hurts is meh, the vets fall off or get injured… and then next year might be even worse because at that point you probably need a rebuilding year even if they hit this year’s draft picks.

- Packers: There’s risk here, mostly of the forms “simmering issues blow up the locker room” and “age and/or injury sap Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love is meh or worse”. But Aaron Rodgers is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL until proven otherwise, and both the coach and the rest of the roster are at least decent, so barring those the Packers should be at worst a division contender with Super Bowl aspirations ala the Ravens.

- Chicago: Uh. Hmm. I like the Fields pick, gut says he’s a pretty solid bet at a Tier 2 quarterback of some description barring catastrophic injury. IIRC the D is still good. But I do not like that O-line, and I do not like that schedule, and I’m not a big fan of Coach Nagy either. In the NFC East or AFC South the Bears would have at least a decent chance at the playoffs. Here? Not so much. It’s not impossible the Bears do well, but I think a top-10 draft pick is more likely.

- Vikings: Hmm. By true talent the Vikings are probably a wild-card contender in the same vein as the mid-2010s Bengals. That’s not quite a good comparison, because I’ve got Zimmer as probably a top-10 coach and those Bengals lacked that. But the rest fits: solid if aging roster (ala the later Dalton Bengals years), overpaid mediocre QB. Yeah, I’m low on Cousins; IMO he’s a high-floor, low-ceiling type that gets overrated by analytics, the second coming of Matt Schaub. He’s a solid choice if you want to win 10-12 games (maybe 13 now) and have a shot at the conference championships, but I’ll be very surprised if he ever wins a Super Bowl as a starter. The problem for the Vikes is that they’re in the NFC North and therefore their schedule sucks balls.

- Lions: They’re rebuilding and their schedule is one of the roughest in the NFL. They might surprise someone early before the lack of talent really shows, IIRC I’ve heard about that happening once before with a Dan Campbell team, but this team is playing for a top-5 draft pick and they’re probably going to get it.

- Saints: Actually really hard for me to tell, mostly because I can’t tell how good the non-QB parts of the roster are this year relative to last. They’ve lost a HoF quarterback, and while Jameis has seasoning and a possible QB whisperer now I suspect his ceiling is still a high variance high ceiling, low floor type in the Fitzpatrick mold (absolute peak might be Eli mk. II). Payton is one of the better coaches in the NFL but finished 8-8 with Brees for multiple years. That said, the Saints’ roster last year was better than it was in those years, especially on defense. Question: is that still the same this year? Don’t know; the Saints took non-Brees losses, but I’m not sure how much. Peak is a true-talent wild card team if Jameis is above average and the rest of the roster is good; fail state is probably 6-7 wins by true talent.

- Buccaneers: Let’s be real, this boils down to a single question, the same one we’ve all been asking for over half a decade now: “is this the year Father Time finally comes for Tom Brady?”. At this point I’ll believe it when I see it. And even if yes they’re probably still a playoff team, because the rest of the Buccs roster is still the best in the division and the schedule gods once again blessed Tom Brady’s team with a weak slate of foes – the entire rest of the NFC South has issues, they get the NFC East, and by finishing second-place in the division last year the Buccs get Chicago, the Rams, and now the Colts as their SOS-dependent opponents. The AFC East with the probable exception of the Jets will be tough (but even there the Buccs luck out – they rolled New England early, and even without a possible Mac Jones adjustment period even if he’s good the first month for the Belichick-era Patriots has often been an adjustment period as the team figures out what’s working and what isn’t) and the Rams should be as well (here the schedule gods frown, the Buccs rolled the Rams early – a lot of the Rams’ downside is injury-related volatility, drawing them early minimizes the chance of this happening prior to this game), but even then the Buccs don’t look severely disfavored in any game and everything else looks very winnable and would even if Brady declines to 2015!Peyton.

- Panthers: I’m not going to lie, I actually rather like the Darnold gamble in a vacuum. If you’re betting on anyone in the NFL to pull another Tannehill he’s the one, because I’ve gotten the same vibe off him that I got off Tannehill on the Dolphins: possible tier-2 QB held back by coaching (and the same coach, no less). The problem is, I think he might be better off as a backup behind a mediocre starter for a little while to regain confidence the same way Tannehill was, and instead he’s getting thrown straight into the fire again. (Also, Fields was available, and Mac Jones too though I’m not sure the Panthers would have been a good place for him to develop.) The rest of the roster is another QB-away team with a likely very solid defense, Christian McCaffrey, and IIRC an O-line that is at least decent.

- Falcons: Possible sleeper team. The Falcons have one major advantage that people keep forgetting about: barring a major breakout from one of Jameis and The Darnold, they have at worst the second-best QB in the division, potentially even the best if Father Time gets Brady but not Ryan. And that’s not damning with faint praise; at his peak I had him as the best Tier 2 quarterback and roughly sixth-best in the NFL overall, that MVP year was not a fluke. He’s just been saddled with bad coaching and bad rosters and been unable to overcome that, which I can’t blame him for given all those 8-8 years for the Brees/Payton Saints in the mid-2010s. Good news: Dan Quinn is gone, and the schedule this year is soft (49ers game aside). As I noted above there’s probably a wild card sloshing around for the NFC South and NFC East, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Falcons got it.

- Seahawks: … We know the book on the Seahawks by now, right? Top-5 quarterback in the NFL (and of the three I would take over Russ on the field itself, two are old enough for Father Time to be a real concern and the last is testing exactly how bad off-field issues have to be to make a Tier 1 quarterback unemployable in the NFL), average roster otherwise, coach who is average at worst. That’s been a true-talent division contender for the last half-decade, and barring injury or locker room issues blowing up I see no reason why that would change this year.

- Rams: High variance, for a very specific reason. The roster, as constructed, is a wild-card contender, or possibly more if Stafford really goes off. The problem is that due to spending first-round draft picks like candy and not getting enough out of the later rounds to make up for it, this is (as noted above) very much a stars-and-scrubs roster. And the thing about a stars-and-scrubs roster is that it’s vulnerable in a way that a roster with more depth isn’t; if a star gets injured, your team is facing a massive drop-off in performance.

- Cardinals: Honestly, unless Kliff hits one of his downsides (can’t adjust now that defenses figured out last year’s offense and/or loses the locker room) then by true talent this is probably a low-end wild-card contender at worst (~8 wins). The problem is, in the NFC West that makes you the worst true-talent team in the division…

- 49ers: So, let’s just point out the obvious: last year was a case study in just how badly a possible true-talent Super Bowl contender has to get injured in order to get a top-10 pick. Admittedly part of that is that Jimmy G. sure seems to merit the injury-prone label at this point, which is why the 49ers traded up for another QB, but the rest of it is just extremely bad luck and that’s unlikely to persist year-to-year. This is probably the best team in the NFC West, which is saying something. (Unfortunately for them, Shanahan is in the Reid/Tomlin bucket and his weaknesses as a game coach make an actual Superb Owl an uphill climb.)

Bonus: Thoughts on the new QB class!

Trevor Lawrence: There’s obvious sample size issues, but quarterback prospects that highly rated haven’t busted in at least 30-40 years (Luck, Peyton, and Elway were all stars). He’s probably gonna be good.

Zach Wilson: Man, I was all ready to write The Other Wilson off as another LOLJets bust after the draft and then he played well in preseason and Saleh actually looks like the first competent coach the Jets have hired in a while (which may still not help him keep his job because the AFC East is now nuts). We’ll see if that holds during the regular season; among other things he has the misfortune of playing Belichick in week 2.

Trey Lance: So far looks to be talented as fuck and also raw as fuck. Shanahan seems to be pretty good at developing quarterbacks?

Justin Fields: I’ve gotten future Tier 2 quarterback vibes off him ever since he was drafted; the problem is he’s on the Bears, with questionable coaching and at least this year what looks like a terrible O-line as well. Possible next Stafford here?

Mac Jones: People don’t understand the probability curve here – the risk with Mac isn’t the ceiling, it’s the very good but not great outcomes. He got a first-round draft grade despite physical limitations, and he’s almost certainly not just being carried by his school – possibly even the opposite given the talent argument and Bama QBs’ track records. To me, that says he’s a one-tool player whose tool is the mental tool. And of all the QB tools that is by far the most important. So, the question: does that tool play in the NFL? If no, he’s probably a third-tier quarterback at best. If yes? Well, in that case there’s a very real chance he’s a Hall of Famer.

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cementcornfield · 1 month ago

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also i thiiiiiink we want the steelers to win today?

#this one is confusing to me #but i think because the ravens have already swept us and most likely have the division #it's best for us to hope the steelers win because we haven't played them yet #and if we beat them then that works well for us in tie breakers...#along with the fact that they have such a brutal schedule down the stretch?#but honestly probably doesn't matter as much as the other teams that are competing for the 7th seed #and i don't know how to feel about any of those! broncos colts dolphins....it definitely will not be a cake walk beating them out #broncos have a very good defense and a rookie qb who is playing less and less like a rookie each week #colts are going back to AR who is Insane but can Sling It #and if tua and mike get back on their bullshit...as much as i love them that simply will not help us at all lol #we just gotta win out and try to control what we can control and hope for some luck!

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davidwarner3 · 3 months ago

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Raiders' Pierce on Tua Tagovailoa: 'I'd tell him to retire'

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nflweeklyuk · 3 years ago

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NFL Divisional Preview

AFC East

The Bills figure to remain the top dog in the division this year, if not primed to establish a dominance over it. Josh Allen looked in midseason form in his preseason play. He is an ascendant talent and that should worry the other teams in the East. If the Bills can provide support in the run game this team will be a powerhouse in the AFC. An new crop of QB’s in this division should make it a fun one to watch in coming years. With a second year starter in Tua, Miami are still looking to see if he is the guy, all noises coming from South Florida are that he is the guy and we will see that this year. I hope so. The Patriots and Jets are starting rookies under centre, but in very different situations. Mac Jones will be put in positions to succeed by Belichick and McDaniels, and only asked to do the minimum required. The Patriots defence looks to follow on from an overall good showing last year where the they were top ten in passing and tied for the league lead in interception. An improvement in rushing yards allowed will see this defence provide all the support a ball control offence needs to win enough games to be in the playoff hunt. The Jets have their QB of the future but Zach Wilson is a raw talent who will likely ride the rookie rollercoaster in his first season. His supporting cast is the worst of the teams overall and the best Jets fans can hope for this season is to end the season with hope!

Projected Standings:

Bills

Patriots

Dolphins

Jets

AFC South

The two best units in this division are the Titans offense and the Colts defense. I would rate the Titans unit as the better of the two at this point, bringing back all major contributors in Henry, Brown and Tannehill provides great continuity. When you throw Julio Jones into the mix to play as the number 2 wideout on this team then you have a pretty fearsome unit. Expect Julio to take Jonnu Smith’s end zone production after the TE left for Foxborough. The young Colts D will look to build on the leaps it made last year and could turn out to be one of the best in the league. I just don’t trust the offensive side of the ball enough. What Wentz will we get? Who will emerge as his go to with Hilton’s injury worries? Michael Pittman has flashed but his overall production does not point to a number one wideout at this point.

If Watson was suiting up (terrible legal issues to one side) then the Texans would possibly challenging the Colts here. He is not, and likely won’t be for at least a meaningful chunk of the season. Outside of him the Texans roster is bare. There is not much to like, and they have just traded their starting corner away. That is the move of a team thinking full rebuild. The Jags have some hope and some intrigue at last! Trevor Lawrence makes this team relevant and more competitive. One of the top prospects in recent years has the usual number one pick pressure but after a 1-15 season any improvement in record will be considered a success.

Projected Standings:

Titans

Colts

Jags

Texans

AFC West

The Chiefs are favorites for the Superbowl, and rightly so. Therefore there is no surprise they are my pick to win the AFC West. Mahomes is an rare player and it is just great to watch him week to week. His supporting cast still includes Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce so we can probably move on! You could make an argument for any of the other three teams, in any order in this division. The Chargers have an ascendant talent at QB and some nice pieces on D. The Raiders have an underrated QB in Derek Carr and will put up points with Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs supporting him. The defense is always a question mark, and so are ALL of the high picks spent on that side of the ball by Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden. The Broncos likely have the best defensive unit in the division and will lean on that to win games. Teddy Bridgewater has made stops in several locations for a reason, he is a good but not great QB, and lets be honest Drew Lock is not the answer. If Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick can all make strides then this could be a sneaky good offense. When things are close calls I always revert back to who has the best player at the most important position. In this division they rank Herbert, Carr, Bridgewater. Behind Mahomes. Obviously.

Projected Standings:

Chiefs

Chargers

Raiders

Broncos

AFC North

This is one of the trickier divisions to predict. There are three teams that you could make a case for winning this division. The other one is the Bengals. It’s really hard not to like what the Bengals have done at the skill positions on offense. Joe Burrow looked the real deal before his injury last year, and Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon have shown how good they can all be. Throw in Ja’Marr Chase, preseason struggles aside, and you have a very talented core of players. Offensive line woes were not seriously addressed though and that will put a cap on this offense, if not stymie it completely. The defense has improved but not enough to challenge the other teams in this division.

The Ravens will look like… the Ravens, the ground game will dominate most opponents and ensure Baltimore puts up plenty of wins again. I forsee a déjà vu year for the Ravens who will make the playoffs but not go deep into the competition when they cannot keep pace with the powerhouse AFC offenses. The defense figures to be stingy again, allowing the run first offense to run over teams throughout the regular season.

The Browns were a nice surprise last year (even with the hype). With Chubb and Hunt leading this offense and Baker Mayfield not having to play the leading role, the Browns found a great offensive rhythm. Mayfield had his own moments worthy of plenty of praise and admiration but I still don’t trust him week in week out. There is so much talent on this roster across the RBs, WRs and TEs, but outside of the RB room there has been no consistent performers. Landry has probably been the most consistent but I’m not sure there are clear roles defined, or a plan to feed all the mouths on this offense. Defensively we know Garrett is going to terrorise QBs and with a 17 game slate some records might be in danger! The Browns gave up a lot of touchdowns and yards through the air last year (although a low completion %), if they can improve that area then they may walk away with a division title.

The Steelers have some great talent on both sides of the ball. Ranking dead last in rushing through 2020, however, was very anti-Steelers. Drafting Najee Harris in the first round looks to improve the balance of this offense, but was it the backs that were the problem? Harris is an upgrade, but you do need some holes to run through. The defense boasts the highest paid defensive player, rightly so, and looks to be a turnover machine once again. Tieing for the lead league in INTs as the Steelers did last year generally helps with field position and setting up the offense in good field position. Downside? The two teams the STeelers are competing with were both top 4 in rush attempts and rushing yards last year. The Steelers led the league defensively in completion % allowed, but were middle of the pack against the ground game. There is a lot to like about the Steelers, but the teams that provide the worst match ups for them reside in their division!

I’ll take the Ravens for the division but it is a coin flip with the Browns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cleveland go deeper in the playoffs than Baltimore though.

Projected standings:

Ravens

Browns

Steelers

Bengals

NFC East

I’m rooting for the Dak Prescott of last year to be the guy we see minute one on Thursday night. It will just be great to see the guy suit up to be honest, that was a really chilling injury to see, to someone who seems a stand up guy as well. If Dak comes back in that form, or even gets there after shaking off some rust and uncertainty then I don’t have much doubt the Cowboys take this division. The defense sorted itself out to a large extent towards the end of last year and has added some nice pieces this offseason. With Lamb, Cooper and Gallup and a trim Ezekiel Elliott all returning I can only see this offense putting up big numbers. Any defensive improvement should translate to Ws, especially within the division.

Placing the rest of this division was a lot trickier. Washington have a fearsome front with Chase Young and Montez Sweat likely terrorising opponent QBs on a regular basis and the defense will be the strength of this team once again. Who doesn’t love Fitzmagic? Well, winning records don’t really unfortunately. Fitzpatrick is with his 400th team for a reason, he is a streaky QB that cannot string together consistent performances. He did a great job in Miami last year, and perhaps is having a late career settling down.. but would you really bet on that? Washington will win games based on the strength of this defense but to challenge for the division, or even the playoffs then they need a makeover in the QB room.

I bought a little too much into the Jalen Hurts early showings last year and had a flutter on the Eagles making some noise in the playoffs. Only for Hurts and the rest of the team too play a couple of duds and miss out completely. The second year pro will likely see ups and downs as any young QB does, but his athleticism and courage should provide enough spark to drive the Eagles to a middling win total, which is likely enough to slot into second in this division.

The Giants are in Daniel Jones purgatory, he has not quite done enough for the plug to get pulled but an insane number of turnovers in his first two years has to be worrying. If the G-men can get Barkley going and limit the work Jones has to do then this offense could thrive on play action with the likes of Golladay, Shephard and Slayton on the outside. The defense has a star in James Bradberry and should keep the Giants in plenty of close games, I just don’t have faith in the QB to put the Giants on the right side of them.

Projected standings

Cowboys

Eagles

Washington

Giants

NFC South

The Bucs bring back all 22 starters on offense and defense from their Superbowl triumph last year. That kind of continuity is rare and makes the Bucs perhaps a more fearsome team than that which closed the season last year so strongly. Like most, I have no real interest in discussing Tom Brady’s age, I have no doubt the first person to call time on Brady correctly will be Brady himself. Someone so in tune with their body and committed to their craft will know the time before we see any semblance of decline. Therefore the Bucs stroll this division this year, a division which sans Drew Brees leaves less talent to challenge the Bucs main area of concern, the secondary. As areas of concern go, it is not a huge concern!

Matt Ryan will be challenging that secondary with Calvin Ridley, Russel Gage and Kyle Pitts. I’m not sure there is anyone who is not excited to see the latter get on the field. Again I fear a déjà vu type year for the Falcons, yes, points will be scored, but that will be a necessity as the perennially thin defense projects to underwhelm once again. If this team could find balance on that side of the ball they would be an NFC team to watch. As it happens they will be just that, but only because they should be in a fair few shoot outs.

What will Sean Payton’s game plan be? How much trust does he have in his QBs? I would expect heavier doses of Alvin Kamara.. and Taysom Hill?.. leading to some deep shots off of play action, limiting the amount Winston (to start with) has to do on any given day. Without Michael Thomas suiting up for the first 6 weeks of the year do the Saints have enough out wide to take advantage of those deep shots? Callaway has flashed the potential, as has Tre’quan Smith, but neither have yet been consistent performers. On the other side of the ball the Saints have a strong pass rush and an improved secondary after the acquisition of Bradley Roby from the Texans. This secondary group may be a little thin and will need rookies to step up to push this defense to the next level. It was a toss up between the Falcons and Saints to take the spot behind the Bucs but again, when in doubt go with the better QB!

The Panthers round out this division, not so much because they are a last placed team, but because there are strong teams in this division. The Panthers defense has the chance to be much improved, if a Brian Burns led pass rush can maintain pressure on opposing QBs then this unit can improve from it’s middle of the pack showing last year. On the offensive side of the ball there are serious questions on the offensive line, that does not bode well for Sam Darnold. Darnold does have a much better supporting cast around him at the skill positions, and a bona fide stud in McCaffrey to be the workhorse but the jury is still out on him as a starting QB. If the offensive line can hold up we should know by the end of the year whether the Panthers have an answer at QB or whether they will be back in the market next offseason.

Projected standings:

Buccaneers

Falcons

Saints

Panthers

NFC West

Probably the most competitive division of the lot. Great, established coaches (mostly…). Talented, proven quarterbacks (mostly…) and top notch skill position players everywhere. All these teams look poised to put up plenty of point on offense, so will this division come down to who has the better defensive unit?

The Rams acquisition of Matthew Stafford is a brilliant move in my opinion. Stafford deserves a chance on a loaded team after being the ultimate competitor and teammate in Detroit, without any support from the organisation. In LA he will benefit from a team that knows how to run the ball, and play defense. The Rams offense has been hit and miss under Goff in more recent history but Stafford will bring consistency and aggression, raising the ceiling of this offense. The defense still has Aaron Donald so they will be just fine, if not a great unit. Pressure up front and lock down play in the secondary from the likes of Jalen Ramsey will mean that the Rams will limit opponents offensive production. With a solid offense with Stafford at the helm this looks to be one of the most balanced teams in the league.

The 49ers are up there with the Rams in almost all facets. They are more talented at the skill positions, certainly, with the likes of Kittle, Aiyuk and Samuel, however Garropolo is not Matt Stafford, until proven otherwise. The guy has been to the Superbowl, but he has also been underwhelming for longer than he has been good overall. Trey Lance is waiting in the wings and there will be plenty of noise if Garropolo is anything but stellar, distraction potential? The run game usually reduces the burden on the quarterback and the 9ers have some talented backs that will rotate to keep a heavy dose of the ground game going. This offense will be good, even with mediocre QB play. I’m not buying the hype of the return of the 2019 9ers just yet but they could easily win this division and be one of the best teams in the league. The defense has lost it’s spearhead in Robert Saleh, so some question marks about continuity need to be answered. There is plenty of talent there though. I have the Rams slightly ahead of the 9ers here but it could go either way.

Russell Wilson is one of my favorite players of all time, when he came out of the gates last season on a record breaking pace it looked like he was about to elevate into the very top tier of QBs. So where did the second half of the season come from?! Letting Russ cook was working beautifully, yeah the D was atrocious, winding up second in the league in air yards allowed, but it didn’t really matter all that much. Until it did. As soon as the offense’s average points per game dropped to a more middling level the Seahawks were not going to win games. We can expect Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett and co to be a dynamic offense which, in all likelihood, will not be so up and down. What can we expect from the defense? Unfortunately while offensively the Seahawks are up there with the teams above, they do not boast the same talent defensively, limiting their ability to compete for honours in this division.

A very similar story looks to play out in the desert. Arizona boast a truly talented offense that has only improved this offseason. The one question mark remaining is do they have a lead back who can carry the load and relieve pressure on Kyler Murray? I’m not sure, and I don’t think this offense will have balance. Yes the rushing numbers will be inflated by Murray himself but that will not be what is seen on field. Defensively the Cardinals have lost Patrick Peterson and will rely on younger players to step up. They will need to generate way more pressure up front to compensate for a weaker secondary. Not you Budda. There are more questions surrounding this team than any of the others in the division, so last place it is.

NFC West

Projected standings:

Rams

49ers

Seahawks

Cardinals

NFC North

Aaron Rodgers with a bigger chip than usual on his shoulder, coming off an MVP year… the league should be afraid. His connection with Adams should be as strong as ever. The depth in the receiving core is a little better but I’m not sure why there is so much hype about the return or Randall Cobb, yes, there is familiarity but we have not seen the game breaking play from Cobb since he left Green Bay. Having two backs in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should mean the run game continues to be an important, and effective cog in this high power offense. I don’t see any drop off from the leagues leading scoring offense. Defensively the Pack will look to improve again this year, with a young secondary that played well last year. An easy choice to take this division.

The Vikings project to be just fine offensively, the combination of Dalvin Cook with Jefferson and Thielen on the outside will mean this offense is capable of going toe to toe with the better offenses in the league. Well, at least if you don’t watch the preseason. Defense was the problem for this team last year, the Vikings could not effectively stop the run or pass, meaning opponents could play whatever game plan they liked and have success. I would not expect a Mike Zimmer coached defense to repeat such bad stats for a second year. The additions of the likes of Patrick Peterson and Eversen Griffen, among others, should ensure that improvement is seen on the field, making this team a lot more competitive this year.

Projected standings:

Packers

Vikings

Bears

Lions

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terralinkresearch · 1 year ago

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The Dolphins’ Offense: Pure Joy on the Field

Republished with full copyrights permissions obtained from the Sports Today Magazine. The Miami Dolphins have carved a niche for themselves as the owners of the most exhilarating offense in the NFL. Led by the tactical brilliance of head coach Mike McDaniel, explosive wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and the ever-improving quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ offense never fails to provide…

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mitchintille · 4 years ago

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2021 Mock Draft 1.0

Super Bowl 55 is just a few days away, which means draft season is looming in the rearview mirror. In a class that is expected to produce an abundance of offensive talent, several teams could benefit from this year’s crop. With a reported possibility of 18 teams looking for a change at the quarterback position, there is quite a bit of ambiguity as we approach the draft, and this year could shape up to be one of the wildest drafts we’ve seen in recent memory. Without further ado, here are my early first round predictions for the 2021 NFL draft....

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

From the moment he set foot on campus his freshman season, Lawrence has always has shown the capabilities of being a future NFL star. He took no time bursting onto the scene. After a dazzling freshman season, in which he lead the Tigers to a title in blowout fashion over an absolutely loaded Alabama team, he followed it up with two more trips to the playoffs, including another trip to the title game.

The former No.1 overall recruit in the country offers everything one could wish for in a franchise quarterback. He is a gifted, natural thrower of the football who is wise beyond his years at the position. Even new head coach Urban Meyer feels that he has the potential to be the best QB ever. Jaguars fans, your savior has come. Rejoice.

2. Houston Texans: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Houston receives: 2nd overall pick (2021), 23rd overall pick (2021), 3rd round pick (2021), 1st round pick (2022), 4th round pick (2022)

New York receives: Deshaun Watson, 6th round pick (2022)

Let’s get weird. Deshaun Watson being traded has reached inevitability status, and the Jets are stockpiled with draft picks over the next few years. It has been rumored that Watson would prefer to play for the Jets under the tutelage of new head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets have the firepower to make this pick happen, and in this scenario they pull off the mega deal and get their guy. So where does that leave Houston?

They luck into a talented, natural thrower of the football, with a very clean feel for the pocket. He has a rocket arm, and is particularly impressive when asked to go off script. The Texans rebuild will undoubtedly be a long one, but with Wilson, they have a fresh face of the franchise moving forward, and will look to continue adding more weapons around him to set him up for success.

3. San Francisco 49ers: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

San Francisco receives: 3rd overall pick (2021), 5th round pick (2022)

Miami receives: 12th overall pick (2021), 43rd overall pick (2021), 1st round pick (2022), 3rd round pick (2022), 7th round pick (2022)

Between the Rams’ recent trade for Matthew Stafford, and Kyle Shanahan remaining noncommittal on Jimmy Garoppolo for the foreseeable future, it wouldn’t shock me to see John Lynch be aggressive and try to nab their QB of the future.

Fields put up gaudy numbers in his first year as a starter, posting an absurd 51-3 TD/INT ratio. He showed a bit of regression in a COVID-shortened year two, but still displayed all of the tools you’d hope to see when searching for a franchise QB.

Finding a way to get Jimmy G’s lucrative contract off the books, and adding a talented player like Fields would be a win-win for an organization whom I feel would GREATLY benefit from a changing of the guard under center.

4. Atlanta Falcons: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

With the arrival of new head coach Arthur Smith, it is time for a rebrand in Atlanta. Matt Ryan is expected to make over $40m a season for the next two years, and while he is certainly not the main issue with this team, the Falcons need to move in a new direction.

Lance is perhaps the most polarizing player in this year’s class. Similar to Fields, he too posted video game like numbers in his first year at the helm. The Minnesota product threw for 28 TD’s, while posting another 14 on the ground. He also didn’t throw an interception all season. He possess all of the physical tools that NFL teams salivate over, and while questions will remain in regards to the inferior competition he’s been exposed to over his career, the opportunity to sit and learn from Matt Ryan could serve both himself and the Falcons some good.

5. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

If Sewell is on the board, he will be the pick for the Bengals. After breakout rookie quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending ACL tear, the sense of urgency to upgrade the offensive line should be at an all-time high for the Bengals.

Sewell allowed just one sack over 1,376 career snaps and will spend the majority of his rookie season at age 20. He is a smooth mover with easy power, who is capable of playing on either side of the line. He is the exact type of stalwart that is needed for the Bengals to protect their QB of the future.

6. Philadelphia Eagles: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

I don’t know what to make of the Eagles’ current situation. They are in QB purgatory and have gaping holes riddled across their roster. With the recent hiring of Colts’ OC Nick Sirianni, I’d imagine adding offensive firepower would be at the top of his to-do list. Assuming they move forward with Jalen Hurts at QB, it is imperative to surround him with quality skill players. After drafting Jalen Reagor in the first round last year, they double dip this year and take the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.

Smith is not the most conventional receiver, being that there aren’t too many 6′1, 175-lb receivers who have enjoyed prolonged success in the league, but Smith doesn’t care about your player profiles. Smith can make plays all over the field and beat you in a myriad of ways. He is a nuanced route runner with a seemingly natural feel for his position, and someone I can assume Sirianni will fall in love with as the draft process begins to heat up.

7. Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

If Lance were to have fallen to this spot, I’d have probably made him the selection. However, I’ll opt to give them a difference maker like Waddle.

With Kenny Golladay’s impending departure and both Danny Amendola and Marvin Jones Jr. testing the open market, that WR room could get UGLY in a hurry. Waddle is essentially a supercharged version of his former teammate Henry Ruggs. He has legit 4.2 speed, and does a great job of tracking the deep ball. The Lions are desperate for speed on the perimeter, and Waddle would be an instant upgrade to what they have now. He’s a true, top-10 talent assuming he manages to stay healthy.

8. Carolina Panthers: Ja’marr Chase, WR, LSU

Now just hear me out on this. Curtis Samuel is approaching free agency and will likely be headed elsewhere. Aside from DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, the cupboard is bare. Chase put up record-setting numbers in his only year under current Panthers OC Joe Brady when they were at LSU, so a reunion would only be right.

Chase is perhaps the best player in the entire class regardless of position. He is a physical route-runner who attacks the catch point with ease, and his RAC ability might be his best trait. He is very reminiscent of Moore, and pairing those two along with Anderson’s deep speed could perhaps create the most dangerous receiving trio in the NFL.

9. Denver Broncos: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

After an heavy offensive draft last year, the Broncos buck the trend and refocus on rebuilding their defense. Farley’s size and athleticism are a perfect fit in Vic Fangio’s versatile defensive scheme. I believe Farley has the potential to be a star in this league very quickly.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

After wrestling back and forth with myself on this pick, the Cowboys settle on Slater. The once elite Cowboys offensive line has suddenly deteriorated into mediocrity. With both Tyron Smith and La’el Collins returning from injuries, Slater can serve as an insurance policy at either position, or kick him inside if need be.

His versatility and strong lower half are both commendable traits that should allow him to see a long career in the NFL.

11. New York Giants: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

Truthfully, this might be the most unpredictable pick in the first round. Dave Gettleman is tricky, but recently he has invested into the secondary quite a bit. After signing James Bradberry to a pricy extension last off-season, they also invested a pick into Xavier McKinney, as well as the addition of guys like Logan Ryan and Jabrill Peppers.

With Surtain, he brings a combo of length and savvy to the position, and would serve as the Giants’ other outside corner opposite of Bradberry.

12. Miami Dolphins: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

San Francisco receives: 3rd overall pick (2021), 5th round pick (2022)

Miami receives: 12th overall pick (2021), 43rd overall pick (2021), 1st round pick (2022), 3rd round pick (2022), 7th round pick (2022)

Yes, I’m highly aware that Mike Gesicki exists. But hear me out on this one, Pitts is more than just your standard “tight end” prospect. If it weren’t for a TE listed next to his position, I’d say that he’s the second best receiver in the draft.

He is nearly impossible to match up against. He’s too fast for linebackers and too physical for corners. He’s shown the capability to play in the slot, flexed out wide, or with his hand in the dirt. Pairing him and Gesicki together will give Tua Tagovailoa (assuming he remains their guy moving forward), a plethora of weapons at his disposal.

13. Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Keeping Justin Herbert clean and protected should be the top priority heading into the offseason for Tom Telesco. After a breakout rookie season, it seems the Chargers struck a goldmine in Herbert. Being that the Chargers haven’t had a decent offensive line in years, a trip out west would make sense for Darrisaw.

The Virginia Tech product is a very fluid mover, whose length and quickness allow him to reach the second level with ease as a run blocker. He will be an instant upgrade to their run game, and has the maturity to protect Herbert’s blindside from day one in LA.

14. Minnesota Vikings: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

After the loss of Everson Griffen to free agency, and Danielle Hunter missing most of the 2020 season due to a back injury, the Vikings should be looking to rebuild their pass rush. Mike Zimmer seems to have a knack for high-ceiling pass rushers with athletic upside. Rousseau fits the bill.

The Florida native saw his star shine after a dazzling sophomore season, racking up an impressive 15.5 sacks. Rousseau has easy power off the edge. While he is still a bit raw from a technician standpoint, his natural power and length will be a nightmare for tackles to deal with from day one. If he can mature his game, he has the potential to be one of the most productive edge rushers in the league in due time.

15. New England Patriots: Micah Parsons, EDGE, Penn State

After some recent concerns over Parsons’ character, he sees his stock slide and he falls into the lap of Bill Belichick. After being used in several different spots at Penn State,

Parsons projects best as an EDGE, but has the necessary tools to develop his skills over time. Belichick has a fetish for hybrid linebackers that can rush the passer, and pairing the two together would do wonders for his development over time.

16. Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

After adding Matthew Stafford to the division, and the Niners looking to upgrade at the quarterback position, it is time for the Cardinals to get better in the secondary. Quickly.

Horn is an excellent press corner, with an alpha-dog type mentality that should fit in well in the Cardinals’ back end. He does have a tendency to be too grabby and aggressive at times, and his lack of size will hurt him against bigger receivers. He is not a perfect corner prospect, but the Cardinals don’t have much of a choice here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

Truthfully, I have no idea what to predict here. The front office is an absolute mess, and have proven themselves to be incompetent when it comes to drafting. After missing badly on Clelin Ferrell a few years ago, they have a chance to redeem themselves with the selection of Phillips.

The former number one overall recruit had a late start to his career, after suffering several injuries and at one point declaring himself medically retired. After transferring to Miami from UCLA, Phillips began to improve his game, and vaulted himself into first round considerations after a breakout 2020 campaign. His injury history may force him to fall, but his combination of size, speed, and motor is very exciting, and he may be the exact type of player Mike Mayock falls in love with.

18. Miami Dolphins: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

Brian Flores is one of the few Belichick proteges recently that has found success as a head coach. Much like Belichick, Flores places a large emphasis on versatility, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. This is why Collins would be a perfect fit on day one.

Collins was truly a jack-of-all-trades in his time at Tulsa. He was one of the best players in all of college football last season, and did so in a number of ways. He can rush the passer, cover a runningback out of the backfield. Think D’onta Hightower type role for Collins if he were to head to south beach.

19. Washington Football Team: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

With the trend in the NFL heading towards a youth movement at QB, it wouldn’t shock me to see Washington fall in love with Jones.

Although he’s not the most dynamic passer, Jones is a solid athlete with an incredibly comfortable feel for the game. He is a great processor with plus accuracy, and has shown impressive flashes of improvisation. He may not have a very high ceiling moving forward, but I can him instantly making that team better and elevating them into playoff contention on a year-to-year basis.

20. Chicago Bears: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

With Allen Robinson likely headed elsewhere in free agency and Anthony Miller’s slow start, the time is now to add playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Insert Bateman.

One of the most forgotten men in the whole class, Bateman is silky smooth in everything he does, and will be the most physical WR on any field he steps on. He eats up intermediate routes, and is capable of being a vertical threat. His game reminds me a ton of guys like Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas, not the most physically gifted guys, but masters of their craft and play to their strengths.

Whether or not the Bears decide to move forward with Mitchell Trubisky at QB or not, it is imperative to give the man under center some more feasible options to work with in the passing game.

21. Indianapolis Colts: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

While the temptation was high to take a receiver here, I opted for the highly athletic EDGE with limitless upside.

Not having a combine will prove to affect Paye’s stock, as he was expected to test through the roof at his position. Once listed as one of Bruce Feldman’s “freaks”, Paye finally applied his athleticism to the field in 2020. He is very reliant on his natural power and speed, and has yet to develop any consistent counter moves. If developed properly, his size/speed combo alongside Deforest Buckner could prove to be deadly for an already improving defense.

22. Tennessee Titans: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

Being that the Jadeveon Clowney acquisition backfired on them, the Titans are still in search of a consistent pass rush opposite of Harold Landry.

Ojulari is young and lacks experience. But when his motor gets going, he could be the most explosive rusher in the class. He’d be perfect in their 3-4 defense, and has the potential to be a good player in space as he gains more experience.

23. New York Jets: Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

One of the staples of a Robert Saleh defense is consistent pressure off the edge. The Jets lack any and all types of pass rush at the moment, and Ossai’s intriguing upside in that defense could see him turn out to be a very productive player.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

Man, Notre Dame just pumps them out, don’t they? With GM Kevin Colbert’s affinity for drafting players from big name schools, Eichenberg becomes the most recent, NFL product of the offensive line factory that is Notre Dame.

Much like any of the Notre Dame linemen of the past, Eichenberg is techincally sound in everything he does. He may not be athletic enough to play left tackle, but is a plug and play right tackle from day one.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

Although the temptation would be to select a receiver here, the Jags have $100m in cap space to work with, which can be spent on one of the receivers in what is expected to be an impressive free agency class.

Cosmi may be a little undersized, but is very athletic and light on his feet for the position. If he can bulk up and maintain his athleticism, I can see him being the Jaguars’ left tackle for the next decade.

26. Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

A surprising slide leaves Cleveland with one of the most gifted players in the draft.

JOK is a heat-seeking missile, who showed very impressive flashes in coverage. He is the prototypical, modern-day NFL linebacker through and through.

27. Baltimore Ravens: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Eric Decosta recently hinted at his lust for the dynamic Florida receiver. Toney was used in several different ways over the course of his career, but really seemed to find himself as a slot receiver in 2020.

On a team desperate for playmakers on offense, Toney would fit like a glove on that intermediate/short game offensive scheme. Toney is a menace with the ball in his hands. He has incredible contact balance and vision. If he continues to progress as a receiver, he would be a very nice addition.

28. New Orleans Saints: Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama

In what looks to be a fairly uninspiring IDL class, Barmore’s stock rose in his first season as a starter. The Philly native has clubs for hands, and he proved himself to be un-blockable down the stretch. Ohio State had no answer for him in the national championship game, and he seems to only be sratching the surface of what he can become.

In this case, the Saints don’t reach for a QB and draft the best player on the board, which just so happens to be Barmore.

29. Green Bay Packers: Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

The Packers failure to address the receiver position came full circle this season. After losing their second consecutive NFC Championship, the lack of talent at WR cost them in the end. Enter Dyami Brown, one of the best kept secrets in the entire draft.

Brown is a budding star. Only listed at 6′1, 185-lb, Brown consistently plays larger than his frame. He is perhaps the best vertical threat in the entire draft. Brown displays freakish ball tracking skills, along with 4.3 speed. Pairing him with Rodgers could be the missing piece that gets them over the hump moving forward, and would show that the organization is dedicated to Rodgers as their guy until he retires.

30. Buffalo Bills: Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

With Matt Milano’s future with the Bills in question, it would not surprise me to see them cut bait and go after the athletic and physical SEC backer.

Bolton is a bit undersized for the position, so pairing him with Tremaine Edmunds would be the perfect complement. He great sideline to sideline speed, and will be an immediate upgrade over Milano from an athletic standpoint.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

With Donovan Smith set to become a free agent, I’d imagine the Bucs will look to replace him this off-season.

Leatherwood was a two-year starter at left tackle, but is capable of playing on the interior as well. Even if the Bucs were to bring Smith back, having a depth piece to the quality of Leatherwood could serve vital for a team who is destined ti make a run until Tom Brady’s retirement.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Alijah Vera-Tucker, iOL, USC

An interesting storyline that has gotten lost in the mix of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs have battled several injuries along the offensive line. They’re likely to play 3-4 backups in the Super Bowl this Sunday.

Although the production remains elite and ultimately the deteriorating health on the line hasn’t bitten them yet, it is not a sustainable way to move forward.

Vera-Tucker is a highly refined player, who has experience playing at any spot on the line. Much like the Bucs, adding quality depth and talent among the offensive line to protect your franchise should never be a move that is scrutinized.

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