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nflsafetyinfo · 2 years ago

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Tua Tagovailoa - Freestyle

For the typical NFL fan, injuries are common and something that likely will occur multiple times per game. But I think most football fans would agree that what happened with Tua Tagovailoa this season, is completely inexcusable by the league.

In Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, Tua and his Miami Dolphins were taking on the Cincinnati Bengals. The game was deep into the second quarter when the injury happened. The score was 7-6 with the Bengals leading. Tua needed to kick on the jets in order to get them back in the lead. While attempting to evade defenders and find an open receiver, he was hit hard by a Bengal's lineman. Tua was thrown to ground and clearly slammed his head against the ground. You can see how brutal the hit is in this video post to YouTube by NFL Matchup Highlights.

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The hit forced him out of the game and straight into concussion protocol where he was evaluated for head trauma or any related injuries. He was immediately told he would not return to the game and that he had a concussion. While this may seem like a simple and smart decision, it is actually quite a problem for the Dolphins, who rely on hm to run their offense. This may be why the concussion issues did not end here for Tua.

In week 16 against the Green Bay Packers, Tua suffered another concussion while playing. They were attempting a play action pass, which is when he fakes and handoff to the running back and instead keep that pall with the intention to find an open receiver to throw due. During this play, the offensive line failed to protect Tua, and he was slammed down with the back of his head hitting the ground very hard. Miraculously, he was able to pass the ball as he was going to the ground, and was able to gain a few yards on the play. This hit sealed the deal on his season and he was forced to let the backup QB Teddy Bridgewater take over for Week 17 of the season.

Since the ending of the season, many have been speculating as to whether or not he will return next season. It is truly a rough situation for everyone involved. Tua is a world class athlete that has worked so hard for his opportunity in the NFL, but is his personal safety more important? Well if you have read my blog about CTE, you would be familiar with the name Dr. Bennett Omalu. He is the neuropathologist that first brought into question the effect that concussions and head injuries can have later in life. I bring this up because he specifically addressed Tua's situation saying he believes that, "Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa should never take another hit and retire from the NFL." (Fox News 2022.)

As the season approaches quickly, the answer as to if he will play next season or not is fast approaching. Howver, his parents have seemed to give us the answer we are looking for. At the Polynesian Bowl in Hawaii at the end of January, Tua's parents said, "No, he comes back. That’s their guy. They love him, we love them and what they’re doing and how they are helping with his recovery and trying to get him back." (TMZ 2023.)

Now I should add that this is just the word of his parents months before the start of the season, and a change of heart by the young payer could come at any time. As fans all we can do is hope that he makes the best decision for himself. As NFL works to create a safer environment for all those playing the sport, we must use examples like this to remind ourselves that the game will always be dangerous, and there will always be risks.

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pbwsports · 5 years ago

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Is Tua Tagovailoa ready to become Miami's biggest star since Dan Marino?

Leaps into swimming pools. Emotional moments of jubilation. Tears of joy. Fifteen words delivered by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell -- "With the fifth pick in the 2020 NFL draft, the Miami Dolphins select Tua Tagovailoa" -- elicited all that plus a belief the moment will change the Dolphins' franchise forever.

Over the past month, there has been an innate buzz burgeoning nationally, but especially in South Florida, that can be summed up as a Tua frenzy. An 11-minute fan-generated YouTube video provides a visual.

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"Tua is far by himself -- never seen anything like this buzz from a draft pick here. There's no close second," said Dolphins color commentator and radio host Joe Rose, who played for the franchise alongside Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino from 1983 to 1985. "We have a rock star here in Tua. This team has been in mediocrity for so long. It's lacked the Dan Marino star power, the Ricky Williams star power. Tua's the next guy in that group."

Despite the love, it's too early to crown Tagovailoa. He hasn't even played an NFL game. Tagovailoa's arrival is defined by hope and hype.

Even in his first month as a Dolphins quarterback, it is clear that if Tagovailoa lives up to expectations, he will be the face of South Florida sports for a while.

How will Tagovailoa manage the pressure, the buzz, overwhelming positivity, eventual negativity and everything that comes with being hailed as the next big thing in a city starving for its latest sports superstar?

"The great thing for Tua is Dan Marino retired 20 years ago," Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon said. "So it's not like he's following right behind a legend like Aaron Rodgers following Brett Favre or whoever follows Tom Brady. He just has to be himself. He can't be Dan Marino. Just be yourself and rely on the people around you."

'It's going to be Dolphins town'

A Mount Rushmore of athletes who have led South Florida pro teams probably starts with Marino and the Miami Heat's Dwyane Wade, but the initial expectations weren't as high with either legend.

Wade remembers it wasn't until after he led the Heat to their first championship in 2006 that he became the face of South Florida sports. He returned to Miami and hopped in his convertible with a buddy. Fans sighted him and rushed the car. He couldn't drive another block.

"I looked at my friend and said, 'Yo, this is different,'" Wade said. "I enjoyed it. But I knew it would never be normal in this city from that point on. I had to get used to being a celebrity. The perks were great, but the non-privacy was not so great."

"Wade County" was born and didn't slow down. His presence remains large in Miami, but since he retired following the 2018-19 season, there has been an active-superstar void.

Enter Tagovailoa.

"He's a hell of a player. Miami, especially at the QB position, really needs that. They need a leader. They need a player," Wade said. "To come in as a young player and win a game in the second half of a national championship game -- that shows some grit, that shows some balls. People have to really believe in you. Miami needs that. The Dolphins need that. Even though I'm a [Chicago] Bears fan, I was rooting for them to get him because Miami needs to get back to where the basketball program is."

Wade's advice to Tagovailoa centers on how to handle fame; the future Hall of Fame guard says he would often deal with anxiety when he left the house. He felt the need to always be on as D-Wade even when he wanted to just be Dwyane. Wade said even though he wasn't expected to "save the franchise," once he became a fan favorite, he had to "figure out how to enjoy what you worked hard for, but keep a level of sanity at the same time."

The last 5th overall pick to Miami did some cool things. Congrts @Tuaamann can’t wait to watch your journey.

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Wade is optimistic Tagovailoa will lift the Dolphins to a place they never reached while he was with the Heat.

"If the Dolphins get it going, it's going to be Dolphins town. We did as much to make it a basketball town as possible, and Miami Heat is there to stay. But let's not get it twisted: Florida is football. Once they get their s--- together, they are going to be big and bigger," Wade said. "But those Heat guys -- Bam [Adebayo], Tyler Herro -- are going to battle him for it. He's got to earn it.

"How you put yourself in that conversation is doing something great, something that people have never seen before, and obviously winning."

Marino was a 'rock star'

Tagovailoa passed his first test by eschewing his college No. 13 -- Marino's number in Miami. Instead, Tagovailoa is paving his own path by becoming the first Dolphins QB to wear No. 1.

"I understand No. 13 is retired, and it should be. Dan Marino, he's the GOAT. He's like the mayor out there, and I have much respect for him," Tagovailoa said. "I just want to have the opportunity to go out there and compete."

2020 NFL offseason

Every quarterback who has arrived in Miami has been met with some mention of Marino, and Miami has started 21 quarterbacks since the Hall of Famer retired in 2000. The Dolphins haven't had a Pro Bowl QB since then, which marks the NFL's longest streak.

So while the expectations might seem unwieldy for a 22-year-old quarterback coming off a serious hip injury, this isn't just any NFL city. He's coming to a franchise that is thirsty for a star QB, and fans have been waiting on Tagovailoa for more than a year.

"When I got down there, the Miami Dolphins were Dan Marino's town and team. It's still that way," former Dolphins great Ricky Williams said. "I was a running back, but no one has even come close to eclipsing the success that Dan had in Miami as a quarterback. Even more so than what I experienced, Tua has the potential to be a big part of what it means to be a Miami Dolphin for a long time."

Williams had a great run as the face of the Dolphins. Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Ryan Tannehill did, too. But none of them have the national pull Tagovailoa has now.

Tua Tagovailoa is a star in Miami already.

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Rose says he remembers the buzz around Marino being relatively subdued when he arrived. The Dolphins, coming off a Super Bowl XVII loss, were led by their "Killer B's" defense, and they selected Marino with the No. 27 overall pick when he fell to them in the 1983 draft.

By the end of his record-setting 1984 MVP season, Marino was a superstar.

"When we went to New York, I saw the phone calls we got in our hotel room. I saw what movie stars and celebrities came around. People wanted to be around this guy," Rose said. "We didn't have the media and social media that they do now, so it could be a lot more hidden. He was big stuff. He was a rock star."

Marino is the standard, but Tagovailoa doesn't have to reach that level to be remembered in Dolphins history. As Moon and Wade have stressed, he just has to focus on being himself.

Why D-Wade is looking to Tua to be the leader the Dolphins need

Dwyane Wade expresses his thoughts on the Dolphins drafting Tua Tagovailoa and gives some advice for playing in the city of Miami.

Work, gain respect, then build the brand

Moon knows all about highly anticipated arrivals. After five Grey Cup titles in the Canadian Football League, Moon signed with the Houston Oilers and became the NFL's highest-paid player in 1984.

With stars such as running back Earl Campbell and linebacker Robert Brazile already in Houston, Moon was conscious of veterans believing he was too full of himself. Moon's response was to work hard, including lifting weights with the offensive line.

"When people came in the building, I was already there. When people left, I was still there," Moon said. "Yeah, I had a lot of attention, but they saw my work ethic. When I got on the field, they started to see I could really play. What you're trying to do is gain respect, and I think Tua will get that, too, because of his work ethic."

Showing that work ethic and building camaraderie with teammates could prove to be more challenging for Tagovailoa this offseason with virtual meetings instead of in-person practices. But Tagovailoa has reached out to many of his Dolphins teammates via text messages and phone calls.

The other balance Tagovailoa will have to maintain is his unique marketability with Moon's advice "to go in there with your head down and work."

Tagovailoa, who signed a four-year, $30.3 million contract, has endorsement deals with Adidas, Hulu, Muscle Milk, Verizon, Wingstop, Gillette, Lowe's, Bose and Call of Duty. He recently signed a multiyear, exclusive memorabilia-and-collection deal with Fanatics. He also has a documentary in the works detailing his journey to the Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa taking photo with young Dolphins fan — Riley — who hopes he lands in Miami. Many other Dolphins fans do too.

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Agent Ryan Williams and Athletes First have handled Tagovailoa's marketing demands, and he has immediately become one of the NFL's most well-known young players. The people love the former Alabama quarterback, and that has shown up in the numbers. Tagovailoa is the top-selling NFL player in terms of overall merchandise sales since May 1 across the Fanatics network, which includes NFLshop.com and online team stores -- above Tampa Bay's Brady and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, the No. 1 overall draft pick.

Moon remembered advice he was given by his agent, Leigh Steinberg, who also represents Tagovailoa: to take things slow on building your brand and try to avoid reading the headlines or social media.

"I just want to make sure that he doesn't try to get too far ahead of himself. Football is what butters his bread," Moon said. "If he doesn't do well on the football field, everything else will go away. Knowing a bit about Tua, he'll be fine."

Tagovailoa showed humility throughout his college career. He has a connection to family and a desire to give back.

"I'm honored that the fans think so highly of me. But I haven't done anything, yet," Tagovailoa said. "What I did in college can't translate to the NFL. It's a clean slate. I've got to go out there and earn my respect and earn the trust from my teammates."

Thank you to @MiamiDolphins for making this dream come true for me and my family. It's in my heart to give back to the communities that have raised me. Plans are underway to start charitable outreach efforts in Hawaii, Alabama and Miami. Stay tuned, stay safe. Go fins! Blessed! https://twitter.com/MiamiDolphins/status/1260223696674881539 …

We have signed quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, defensive tackle Raekwon Davis, defensive end Curtis Weaver and long snapper Blake Ferguson.

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'The guys in that locker room'

The idea of becoming a star before even taking an NFL snap might be enough to make Dolphins coach Brian Flores' head spin. A champion of competition and team-first mentality, Flores probably doesn't care how many jerseys Tagovailoa sells as long as he produces on the field.

"The world will make you think that you're this superstar. And maybe you are, but it doesn't really matter," Flores said last November regarding any particular player's growing success. "The only thing that matters is the guys in that locker room."

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But there is an element of stardom Wade alluded to with which Flores probably will agree, and that's winning. The New England Patriotsbecame an NFL dynasty with a star quarterback because of their winning records and Super Bowl titles. The allure of Tagovailoa's star power will be embraced should the Dolphins become title contenders year in and year out.

Before worrying about the celebrity, the more timely concern revolves around when Tagovailoa will get on the field. Some argue he should be an immediate starter, while others suggest a redshirt 2020 season. The most likely result appears to be somewhere in the middle.

The Dolphins are in Year 2 of a dramatic rebuild, but Flores always wants to win. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the veteran incumbent, has the upper hand in securing the starting role for several reasons, thanks to his comfort in offensive coordinator Chan Gailey's scheme, his success guiding the Dolphins in 2019 (to five wins), his leadership in the locker room and a lack of a true offseason.

But Tagovailoa is also eager to learn under Fitzpatrick, saying on draft day in April that he wants "to understand the kind of person he is ... nitpick him, ask him how he goes about preparing for a defense ... and just being able to question him."

Fitzpatrick vows to be Tagovailoa's "biggest cheerleader," but he won't hand him the starting job in 2020. Tagovailoa probably wouldn't want it any other way, because when football returns, he will get the opportunity to prove his worth.

Once Tagovailoa hits the field, the hope is he gets to become the greatest version of himself instead of being constantly compared to Marino. That weight is too heavy.

But becoming the long-term face of the Dolphins and South Florida sports? That's well within Tagovailoa's grasp. Source - ESPN

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mitchintille · 5 years ago

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2020 Mock Draft (Pre-combine)

Alas, it is finally here. Draft season has officially kicked into full gear, and that means it’s time for yet another installment of a mock draft that will undoubtedly be ridiculously wrong come April. With that being said, I sincerely hope you enjoy!

1. Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

The Bengals are widely regarded as one of the most incompetent front offices in all of sports, and nothing that they can do with this pick would shock me. With that being said, it is with almost 100% certainty that Joe Burrow will be a Bengal. Sharpie it in.

2. Washington Redskins - Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

Another pick that is almost entirely locked in. Young is one of the best defensive prospects to come out in recent memory. His blend of athleticism, raw power, and moxie is a match made in heaven for new head coach Ron Rivera. Young is a transcendent type talent with true superstar potential, and should be snatched up within seconds assuming they don’t trade down.

*TRADE*

3. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

This should come as a surprise to no one. A team with a trajectory pointing directly upwards and a bevy of picks at their disposal, the Dolphins trade up to assure they land their franchise QB. Tua is a polarizing prospect, coming off an historically great career which saw him cement his legacy as early as his Freshman year. He is deadly accurate with a knack for creating plays outside the structure. His riddling injury concerns are valid, but should the medicals come back clear, there is not a better player in the class in my eyes.

4. New York Giants - Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

Back to back Bama players here, as new coach Joe Judge establishes a trend from his first pick as the new coach. Build. The. Trenches. Wills is a highly athletic tackle with the ability to play in space; not to mention he is far and away the most pro ready run blocker at his position group as well. The Giants have a tendency to be unpredictable come draft time, but I can’t see them ignoring the glaring holes on their offensive line for another off-season.

*TRADE*

5. Detroit Lions - Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

Win-win for the Lions here as they collect additional picks and the best corner prospect to come out since Jalen Ramsey.

6. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

The writing is on the wall here. Philip Rivers and the Chargers have decided to mutually part ways after a disappointing season for both parties. Insert Justin Herbert. The live armed QB is the NFL prototype of what one should look like. Tall, athletic, big arm, smart. Herbert is not going to be for everyone, but with the Chargers’ throw heavy offense, he should develop nicely for them and give them (somewhat) a sense of continuity.

7. Carolina Panthers - Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

Admittedly, this is a bit of a mystery pick for me. The Panthers have been non-committal to whether or not they view Cam Newton as their QB of the future, meaning a possible huge void will be created if they indeed let him walk. Assuming the draft shakes out with the top three QB’s going in the first six picks, the Panthers are left in a BPA position. Brown is the type of mauler up front the Panthers desperately lacked last year, fielding one of the league’s worst run defenses. He is a plug and play type player who should see the field and contribute immediately.

8. Arizona Cardinals - Ceedee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Do the Cardinals have more pressing needs than a wide receiver? Yes, absolutely. But in the case of Lamb, he has all the ability and potential to be a true WR1 in the league. His familiarity with the Cardinals’ scheme and QB Kyler Murray is simply too irresistible to pass on for Kingsbury and Keim.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars - Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

A once strong and dependent LB corps quickly saw a rapid decline after the sudden retirement of Telvin Smith last off-season. The Jags recently retained both Doug Marrone and DC Todd Wash, and with their recent track record of picking the best available defensive player, it’s hard to assume they’d pass on a player of Simmons’ caliber. A true chess piece, seeing snaps at seemingly every position on the field last season, Simmons’ versatility should be coveted given the direction the NFL is heading towards.

10. Cleveland Browns - Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

New head coach Kevin Stefanski should be foaming at the mouth if Wirfs is still on the board. The recently hired Stefanski is well known for his wide zone run scheme featuring heavy dosages of play action. Insert Wirfs. A freakish athlete for his size who is only scratching the surface of what he can become. Wirfs’ natural agility and raw strength is exactly what the Browns need to upgrade their dire situation at offensive tackle.

11. New York Jets - Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

It’s simple, the Jets need to draft offensive line to protect their young QB. The Jets are in need of a serious makeover on the offensive line, and while Rome wasn’t built in a day, Thomas, a 3 year starter at Georgia, is the perfect benchmark towards repairing a withered offensive line.

12. Las Vegas Raiders - Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

This screams Raiders to me. The Raiders have plenty needs, but a true WR1 is something this offense has been lacking since...well...Amari Cooper. But nonetheless, Mayock has shown a tendency to draft players from big time schools. Jeudy fits the billing, as he is the most gifted route running prospect we’ve seen in a long time, and a guy Gruden will undoubtedly be pounding the table for.

13 - Indianapolis Colts - Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

The term “polarizing prospect” is thrown around loosely each and every draft season, but there is truly no other way to describe Jordan Love. The Utah State product saw his stock rise after a very a productive 2018 season, only to be minimized by a drastically underwhelming 2019 campaign. Love’s supporting cast is, in my mind, one of the worst in recent memory in regards to QB prospects. No other prospect’s career trajectory is more team dependent than Love, and the Colts are the perfect fit. Love can sit a year behind Jacoby Brissett in Frank Reich’s QB friendly offense. His skill sets as a QB are exactly the type that the new NFL is targeting, and with the opportunity to sit for a year and learn might be exactly what is needed to tap into Love’s full potential.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

Sigh. Given the impending loss of Ndamukong Suh, Kinlaw could plug and play into the league’s reigning top run defense. Personally, I am not as high on Kinlaw as most. A nagging knee injury and questionable production are legit concerns of mine, but how he wins is a perfect complement to Vita Vea. If Kinlaw’s repertoire expands, there is some serious Chris Jones-esque potential there. Nonetheless, this is more of a continuity pick than anything else.

15. Denver Broncos - Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

The idea of pairing Henry Ruggs was very tempting to me, but given the depth in this year’s receiver class, Becton is the safe choice here. It is imperative that they invest in protecting Drew Lock, and the 6′7 behemoth should give them an immediate upgrade over Garrett Bolles.

16. Atlatna Falcons - AJ Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa

With the recent release of Vic Beasley, it is no secret that the Falcons should be looking to add EDGE depth. Epenesa is not the twitchiest player, but his high pass rush ceiling and savvy run defense are a dream fit for Dan Quinn.

17- Dallas Cowboys - Grant Delpit, Safety, LSU

This is another one of those picks that feels somewhat mysterious to me. Yet given the need at safety and the fact that they tried making a push at the trade deadline to acquire Jamal Adams last season, it would not shock me to see them go this direction. Delpit, the 2019 Jim Thrope award winner, is a fast twitch, instinctive eraser in the back end. His tackling concerns are valid, but I fully expect him to clean that issue up early on in his career.

18. Miami Dolphins - Josh Jones, OT, Houston

With a roster lacking talent at seemingly every position, it is best to build from the ground up. After selecting their franchise QB in Tua, they double down and select the athletic Jones to begin solidifying their offensive front.

19. Las Vegas Raiders - Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

The Raiders have no talent in their secondary. Seriously. Fulton isn’t exactly the flashiest player, but his body of work has proven time and time again that he can hang with the best of them. His Football IQ and moxie provide the Raiders a nice building block towards reshaping that secondary.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars - CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

After going defense with their first pick, the Jags double down and keep building towards that elite 2017 defense they once had. Henderson has faced several ups and downs throughout his career, but his athleticism and potential are higher than anyone else in the class not named Jeffrey Okudah. With the Jags defensive front seeing a hopeful improvement, Henderson should plug in nicely alongside AJ Bouye.

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama

A true burner. Ruggs gives me some Tyreek Hill/Hollywood Brown type vibes. The Bama product offers world class speed, and is a more well rounded receiver than given credit for. Desean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey are only getting older, and Ruggs provides a much needed deep threat that Carson Wentz has been so desperately lacking the past few seasons.

22. Buffalo Bills - Tee Higgins. WR, Clemson

A 6′5 target with the best hands in the draft is the exact type of receiver the Bills have been lacking for years. Josh Allen gets a new best buddy in Higgins, who has the wingspan and strength to win contested catches and collect errant throws from the gunslingin’ Allen. Higgins has true WR1 potential, and pairing him with John Brown could be what the Bills need to unlock Allen’s full potential.

23. New England Patriots - Xavier Mckinney, Safety, Alabama

The impending free agency of Devin McCourty leaves the Pats in a bit of a pickle. Whether the Pats decide to resign him or not, it can’t hurt to gain some youth at the Safety position. Patrick Chung is aging and beginning to show signs of decline. Enter Mckinney. Nick Saban bestowed the same responsibilities on him that he once did with Minkah Fitzpatrick. Mckinney is a versatile, high IQ player whose instincts should quickly prove to be useful for Belichick.

24. New Orleans Saints - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

I can’t envision a scenario where the Saints look a different direction if Reagor is still on the board. An absolute freak of nature, Reagor is expected to dominate the combine. He once posted a ridiculous sub 4.3 40 and an absurd 26 foot (!!!) long jump. Did I mention the fact that all of this was while he was still in high school? Reagor is a true vertical threat, but also serves plenty of value as a return specialist and gadget type player. He is the exact type of player that Sean Payton covets, and while he has all of the makings to become a WR1 in this league, being the Robin to Michael Thomas’ Batman is simply a pairing that cannot be resisted.

25. Minnesota Vikings - Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

This one feels obvious to me. After investing into the offensive line the last two drafts, the depth in the draft allows the Vikings an opportunity to go out and grab a toolsy corner. Xavier Rhodes looked like a shell of what he was once last season, and that pricey contract still looms large. Both Trae Waynes and Mackenzie Alexander are heading towards free agency, and given Mike Zimmer’s penchant for drafting very athletic corners with good ball skills, this fit seems plausible.

26- Miami Dolphins - Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin

The ideal chess piece for Brian Flores. Baun’s unique skill set is reminiscent of Kyle Van Noy, as his versatility offers loads of endless opportunities for Flores’ defense. He has all of the traits to play off the ball and offers plus blitz skills, and would give the Dolphins a much needed infusion of talent on the defensive side.

27- Seattle Seahawks - Julian Okwara, EDGE, Notre Dame

The Seahawks last two first round picks have been bizarre to say the least, so don’t be surprised if the twitchy Okwara ends up as the pick. After investing into LJ Collier last season- who is now 25 years old and has recorded one (!) pressure in his young career- it is obvious that the Seahawks are still searching for an answer on the edge outside of Jadeveon Clowney. Okwara is a bit rough around the edges, but offers an intriguing athletic profile and runs with a very high motor. He’s going to need to add play strength early in his career, but his burst and bend might be too tempting to pass on.

28. Baltimore Ravens - Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

As competitive of a player as there is in this draft. Murray is the type of natural, vocal leader that the Ravens organization seems to covet. His blend of power and speed is something that should mesh immediately in that locker room, and given the Ravens recent track record of drafting Oklahoma players (Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Orlando Brown), Murray seems like an ideal fit.

29. Tennesee Titans - K’lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

Chaisson fits the mold of a Titans defender. Highly athletic, versatile, and bendy off the edge, adding Chaisson to an already talented defense could be the missing piece they need towards taking that next step to being elite. Chaisson offers plenty of risk, but a guy like Mike Vrabel should be able to milk all of the potential out of him that he can get.

30. Green Bay Packers - Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

The former JUCO product burst onto the scene this year with a whopping 65-1192-8 stat line. His pure speed and natural after the catch ability is something that offense has long been lacking. Pairing this dynamic playmaker next to Davante Adams would solve what was a very lackluster group last season.

31. San Francisco 49ers - Cesar Ruiz, OC, Michigan

Starting center Weston Richburg is coming off a torn patellar tendon, and the interior depth is showing signs of aging. Ruiz, a late riser, has all of the tools and youth to slide nicely into that unit. An intelligent and experienced player, Ruiz movement skills for his size would be an ideal fit in Shanahan’s offense.

32. Kansas City Chiefs - Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU

Behind Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi, the depth at defensive tackle leaves plenty to be desired. Blacklock is an athletic specimen who offers plenty of juice to be a high end player. Coming off a 2018 season in which he missed due to a torn Achilles, Blacklock displayed the same explosiveness he had in 2017. While his processing needs some work, he is the type of high ceiling player that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo could get the most out of.

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sportsgeekonomics · 5 years ago

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The Crystal Ball: Predictions of what the NCAA will say when they finally (claim to) allow a limited exercise of athletes’ NIL rights

Today the NCAA issued an open letter to California Governor Gavin Newsom, threatening to cut California schools out of NCAA championships, threatening litigation, and also casually mentioning that when they get around to allowing some form of NIL rights, it is not going to be, um, well, real in the sense of allowing athletes to operate in the market. To this last point, they write:

“The NCAA continues to focus on the best interests of all student-athletes nationwide. NCAA member schools already are working on changing rules for all student-athletes to appropriately use their name, image and likeness in accordance with our values ...”

Since the NCAA’s values do not include that athletes are entitled to the full market value of their NILs, I think we can read this as a pre-announcement of an intent to restrict athletes rights. (side note, if it’s a right, it’s not supposed to be restrictable)

But the NCAA is so predictable in this desire to arrogate athletes’ rights for their own benefit, that with a fairly high degree of confidence, I believe I can predict several other “features” of the new NCAA NIL policy. To wit:

1) It will involve an artificial cap on what an athlete’s “true” NIL value is, determined by a committee of college administrator types, and designed to ensure that athletes are not “overpaid” for their NIL rights.

Recognize that in most situation where we are concerned about young or naïve people contracting with savvy businesses in the market, we have legal protections to ensure the less knowledgeable people are not taken advantage of by being paid too little. But the problem the NCAA will be worries about will be a needless concern that young men and women will be paid “too much.”

This shows you the NCAA’s concern is not to ensure the rights of the athletes to open-market compensation, but rather to ensure they do not get their full value, for fear of what this will say about how valuable college athletes actually are.

2) The committee’s concerns will be

a. Fear that payment for NIL value will be inflated by payment for athletic value

This has two major problems. The first is a purely economic one. There is virtually no athlete for whom his/her endorsement value is separable from his/her athletic value, esp. prior to retirement. When Klay Thompson does an ad for Kaiser Permanente, a large portion of why he is chosen as the endorse, and why he can command payment above a union scale commercial actor is because he is an awesome basketball player, and his value to Kaiser Permanente hinges critically on the fact that he is beloved in Oakland, where Kaiser Permanente has a presence.

For a car dealer in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, the value of Tua Tagovailoa depends critically on him playing well, and doing so for the Alabama Crimson Tide. If he were to transfer to Clemson, his value to the Tuscaloosa dealer declines to zero, or perhaps even negative. So thinking that these values are somehow severable is foolish.

The second is a civil/economic rights one, which is the idea that a school or sports body should somehow have the right to decide whether two adults transacting in the market for perfectly legal conduct should have their collective judgment of a fair price questioned. In particular, for this third party to step in and override the athletes’ right to engage in commerce to make sure he/she gets less than the market’s own assessment is essentially granting to the NCAA/School ownership over a stream of payments that ought to belong solely to the adult full-citizen.

b. Fear that only the rich schools will be able to offer NIL deals/com balance

There are two fundamental misunderstandings baked into this concern. The first is a belief that caps on individual earnings improve competitive balance in sports. They do not. There are dozens of sports economics papers in professional and college sports that show that caps on what individual can earn doesn’t improve the fortunes of “poor” schools, but instead just changes how the “rich” schools use their money to get talent. (I’ve summarized a lot of them, and discussed the empirical data in the past). If amateurism rules improved competitive balance, we would not have the concept of a Power 5 conference, because all conferences would tend to have an equal chance at being powerful in any given year. We would not have UConn and a handful of other school dominating women’s basketball year-in and year-out. Alabama and Clemson would not be favorites, again, to be in the college football championship after having met up in the CFP the last four years in a row.

Economics has known for 60+ years that talent flows to where it is most valuable, regardless of whether the talent itself receives a share of the profits of not. Prior to free agency, the New York Yankees were more likely to be in the World Series than they are today. This is know as the “Invariance Principle” and you can check out this paper I co-authored for a good discussion of this principle if you’d like. Essentially it says that Alabama will out-recruit Fresno State for QB talent as long as Tuscaloosa has more demand for football talent than Fresno, and allowing that demand to lead to athletes receiving a share of the Tuscaloosa revenue will not change the relative success of Alabama. Ask yourself how many times, currently, Fresno state is able to beat out Alabama if they want the same athlete even when “pay” is capped equally at a scholarship. (spoiler: never)

The second misunderstanding is to think about spending on athletes like a pure consumer luxury good and to imagine a school/community acting like a family with a (short-term) fixed income deciding whether or not to take a vacation. That analogy is horrible for thinking about how major universities decide how much money to allocate to their various means of generating revenue and reputation as educational nonprofits. In that budgetary environment, the value of a star athlete is assessed, not against whether the family can afford a luxury, but rather whether the benefit of adding that athlete is worth the cost. Because it is a business decision, if a school like Fresno State felt it would generate more economic/reputational benefit from a star quarterback than Alabama would, they would offer more. But Fresno’s market is not as lucrative as Alabama’s and so it’s not that Fresno “can’t afford” to outbid Alabama, rather it’s that Fresno’s break-even point is lower than Alabama. So it’s rational for Fresno to stop bidding even when Alabama is willing to continue to up the stakes, and Alabama thus gains the asset.

This is not a argument for fixing prices at the point where Fresno would break even, since all Alabama then has to do is invest in other assets, better facilities, better coaches, etc., (can you say indoor waterfalls?) and since Fresno is already at break-even, for Fresno to invest even a dollar more is wasteful. In other words, it’s not that it’s unfair that Fresno can’t afford to outbid Alabama, it’s actually economically rational for Fresno to let Alabama pay more for talent, because it would cost Fresno more than Fresno would benefit, while the reverse is true for Alabama. It’s win-win for Fresno not to overpay and for Alabama to get the ability to commercialize the athletes’ value. Allowing the money to flow to the athletes instead of the Waterfall Construction Industry just ensures the value reaches those who generate it.

c. Purported Fear that NIL rights will involve too much time away from school

This is somewhat perplexing, for several reasons. The first reason is that shooting a commercial or lending some pre-existing video to a sponsor is not a very time-consuming activity, certainly not compared to the time it takes for a college sport team to travel to a road game (or several) over the course of a week. College Basketball athletes miss something like 40 days of class a year. Suddenly now we’re worried about an afternoon photo shoot?

The second reason is that, of course, activity of this sort can be focused on the summer.

But the third is that the prior goal of making sure athletes aren’t “overpaid” for their NIL goes firmly against the goal of ensuring athletes do not focus on NIL activity too much. If an athlete needs, say, $100,000 to help pay of his mother’s mortgage, wouldn’t it be easier on his time to let him film one lucrative endorsement for $100,000, than to declare that level “too much” and thus force him into doing twenty $5,000 deals? Not everyone has a dollar goal like this, but the best way to ensure anyone who needs money will not do too many side-jobs is to make the first side-job pay enough to cover the financial need.

d. Unsavory advertisers.

This is not as ridiculously as the other concerns. Every sports employer imposes these sorts of terms on their athletes, whether it is a requirement not to endorse a competitor of the team’s official sponsor, or not to advertise for illegal products, or gambling (given that it may be perceived as lowering the integrity of the sports contests themselves, etc.) But the difference here is that these terms are all negotiated as part of an employment contract. If a team wants to tell an athlete s/he can’t advertise for a beer brand, that is baked into the salary they settle on for his/her services, and generally, the salary will rise as the endorsements are more restricted.

In contrast, the NCAA wants to impose these sorts of restrictions, but not compensate the athlete for them. They want to treat the athlete like an employee in terms of imposing rules of employment, but it does not want to grant the athlete all of the benefits of employment, whether it be workers comp, the right to unionize, or even social security matching. To the extent the NCAA needs to control what products an athlete can endorse (which I question), they should be forced to bargain for those concessions, not allowed to simply assert an artificial right to declare them forbidden by fiat.

3) It will involve some mandatory “tether” to education, such as requiring an endorser to offer a summer internship as part of the contract.

By itself, working to get athletes more exposure to the business side of sports is a fine goal. But (a) it contradicts the goal of limiting the impact of the NIL work on school time, and (b) it may force an athlete into internships ill-suited to his/her career aspirations. Take the example of Bryce Love, a recent star at Stanford who also plans to become a medical doctor. He was the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy in his penultimate season at Stanford and he could have easily gotten lucrative endorsement deals from any number of advertisers. But would forcing him to do a summer internship at adidas have helped him get ready for medical school?

So yes, let’s encourage endorsers to offer these sorts of internships, but let’s not allow the NCAA to impose a one-size-fits-all mandate on athletes. There is also ( c) the question of how to handle the star with multiple offers. If the total amount is going to be capped, and if then an internship is also required, an athlete will find his/her ability to do more than one or two sponsorships curtailed as well, which effectively would impose a cap on total earnings on top of individual deal earnings.

4) This will all be done in an effort to maintain a “line of demarcation” between college and pro sports.

Of course, there is, and always will be, a strong demarcation between pro sports and college sports, which is that to play college sports, the athlete must be a student at the college. As long as that “tether” is maintained, no one will confuse the two. It's simple guys: College Athletics = The Athletes Attends College.

Beyond that, further demarcation is unnecessary from the point of view of avoiding consumer confusion. If a real college student is wearing Nike shoes because his school is being paid for him to do so, and suddenly that changes so that he is wearing Nike shoes because his school AND he himself are both being paid, it’s hard to see this as blurring the line. The only way the line between pro and college would be blurred, is if consumer questioned whether the college athlete’s education was genuine. As long as it is, the availability of endorsements, and true access to an open market for those endorsements, will not change that fundamental distinction where College Athletics = The Athletes Attends College.

If the NCAA is worried that endorsements blur this line, it is really a signal they are not confident that college athletes really DO attend college in the same sense as a normal college student. This should be a sign to California to push back and tell the NCAA to focus on fixing that problem, rather than limiting athletes’ economic opportunities to cover up for the NCAA’s failure to ensure all athletes are receiving a true college education.

Conclusion

This ends my prognostication of what we’re going to see from the NCAA. Almost surely, the NCAA plan will seek to override the market assessment of athlete NIL value with the express goal of lowering their income and controlling their efforts to commercialize their image. Whatever the NCAA plan is, it will almost certainly reject the best method of determining fair market value, which is to let transactions in a fair market set value. It will arrogate to the NCAA the athlete's right to determine who he/she endorses, how much he/she can bargain for, and how much time he/she wants to devote to this, in a way that schools do not do for any other student. At core, it will not accept that this is about the athletes’ rights as adults in society, and instead will consider that doling out a slightly higher level of compensation, but denying the fundamental right of market access, should suffice. It is a “how much cash will you need us to dole out to stop insisting on athletes’ getting all their rights” kind of deal.

This is the key. The purpose of ensuring athletes recover their NIL rights is because, well, rights are fundamental. Athletes’ are not second-class citizens – and we should not be fooled by “well, this is less exploitative than before” when the real standard should be “this is no longer exploitative at all.”

This is why my work with the HBL is so vital to my efforts to try to restore college athletes’ full sets of rights. Even when a state passes a law restoring a limited subset of college athletes’ full rights, the NCAA is ready to go to court to use the full weight of our legal system to make sure this doesn’t happen. The NCAA is never going to be on board with the simple concept that College Athletes have equal rights to College Coaches. And so, no matter what the legal question, the fact is we will not see the NCAA pay athletes their full market worth unless and until someone else enters the market and forces them to do so. That someone is going to be the HBL.

The HBL will be the first professional college basketball league. We’re not worried that consumers will be confused; rather we’re confident that when we put teams on the court with the bulk of the elite collegiate talent, fans will be excited to watch, sponsors will be excited to be associated with our league, etc. The league is run by Ricky Volante and NBA legend David West, and you can learn more about us at HBLeague.com.

Remember #AmateurismIsACon

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