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Week 12 NFL predictions

Last week was a very good 10-5 week. Not a bad week generally but given some of the upsets, that is a great week. Nice to be back in double figures, I didn’t post last week as family holiday and nothing is more important than family!

Let’s go for Thanksgiving week!

Bears 20 Lions 21

Spread: Bears -3.0

Pick confidence: 51%

If there is a time for Detroit to get a win, it is on Thanksgiving, against a banged up Bears squad that are minus Justin Fields, Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack. Both defenses in this game can be run on, that poses a bigger problem for Detroit if Fields starts, Dalton’s legs are not going to be a worry. I would expect Montgomery to have success in this one and actually see this being a fairly fast, low scoring game with both teams leaning heavily on the run. DeAndre Swift has been a lone bright spot for the Lions this year and is flourishing despite the limitations around him. If the Bears can stop the Lions on the ground then they should run out winners in this one, I don’t trust the Lions aerial attack, mainly because I have no idea who it comprises other than TJ Hockenson. That is not quite true but you get the point. The Lions defense has held more talented offenses in the Steelers and Browns to 16 and 13 points respectively in the last two weeks so they should keep this game close throughout. This game could come down to which players make the most of their QB’s checkdowns. Right now my money is on Swift, although Montgomery and Mooney could equally do it for their team. I don’t feel confident in picking the Lions but don’t feel confident in taking the Bears at the spread. So why not just go Lions!

Raiders 20 Cowboys 28

Spread: Cowboys -7.5

Pick confidence: 70%

The confidence in this pick would be higher if CeeDee Lamb was trending towards playing but that does not seem the case. Without Lamb and Cooper, the Cowboys offense looked out of ideas against the Chiefs. It feels like a Elliot/Pollard running day for the Cowboys, I have faith they will adjust given they have had time to game plan around the losses on offense. The Raiders have given up the 4th most yards on the ground in the league, so there should be holes for the Cowboys backs to exploit. The Chiefs defense turned over Prescott last week but the Raiders defense has just 4 picks on the year, even undermanned Dak should be able to make enough plays to put enough points on the board to outscore a struggling Raiders offense. Derek Carr has played really well all year but it just seems like he is running out of difference makers to take this offense up a gear. Darren Waller is not playing the way we have come to expect, that is in part due to the lack of deep threat offered by the Raiders since the necessary departure of Henry Ruggs. This game should not get out of hand given Dallas’ offensive issues but game script may see the Raiders playing some catch up, not a great script given the Cowboys ball hawking defense. I can see a tough day at the office for Carr here. If Lamb plays I would take the spread, if he doesn’t this scoreline might snug up a little. Gallup and Cedrick Wilson look to be good DFS plays, you could stack with Prescott but I’m not expecting fireworks.

Bills 23 Saints 13

Spread: Bills -7.0

Pick confidence: 80%

What Bills are going to show up? The Bills have steamrolled bad defenses and been a no show against viable ones in recent weeks. This Saints defense is certainly in the latter camp. I do see some improvement in the Bills offensive performance but not to put up lots of points, and it should be enough to overcome a Saints team that are just so decimated offensively. No Winston, no Kamara, no Ingram (well probably not at this point) and no Ramczyk leaves the Saints without so many key pieces that not even great coaching can overcome. Trevor Simien is the best 4th quarter QB in the NFL in the last couple of weeks, but that is in garbage time in losses. He has been one of the worst in the first 3 quarters. The Bills defense should be itching to get back out on the field after being embarrassed by the Colts last weekend. This Saints offense should be just what the doctor ordered. The strength of the Saints defense is stopping the run, the Bills don’t like running the ball at all really so in a weird way this is a good matchup for the Bills offense, the Saints are weaker against the pass although they do have 11 takeaways on the year so Allen will need to be smart with the football. I think the Bills win this one comfortably by taking what the Saints defense gives them through the air and playing solid defense against a depleted Saints attack. I’ll take the spread here and feel confident about it.  

[nflweeklyuk]

Week 10 NFL Predictions

The last three weeks have been some of the most unpredictable in recent memory, not a great recipe for success in a game picks blog…. However, that extends to all those making picks and bets so I am not alone in some struggles, and have had better weeks than the ‘experts’ dotted around the various media outlets. I am at 86-50 for the year, 63%, not where I want to be but it’s been an unpredictable year so it has been great to watch at least. I mean the Jags knocking of the Bills 9-6? Come on.

A bright spot is a second week in a row with an exact score, Chargers 27 Eagles 24. Following on from a correct call on the Pats 27 Chargers 24 game the previous week. I’ve actually got the Patriots and Chargers points spot on the last two weeks in a row. Will it be 3?

Ravens 27 Dolphins 17

Spread: Ravens -7.5

Pick confidence: 85%

Statistically the Dolphins are a very middling defense against the run, which means against Lamar Jackson you are in for a tough day. The Dolphins do lead the league in passing yards allowed, and are top 5 in passing TDs allowed whilst being middle of the pack in yards per completion and completion percentage. That’s a long way round of saying it looks like a difficult day for the Dolphins who are up against a Ravens offense that will run the ball and push the ball down the field vertically. The lone ray of hope is that Jackson has not been great against the blitz, something Miami deploys heavily. Pressure will need to land whilst ensuring Jackson cannot escape for the Dolphins to slow the Ravens down. On the flip side Miami is dead last in yards per attempt (YPA) at 6 YPA, whilst the Ravens are top 10 in YPA allowed at 8 YPA. This Miami offense is not the offense to attack the Ravens weakness on defense, especially with Parker and Fuller on IR. Jaylen Waddle should be the guy in the offense to stretch the field but he has as many receptions behind the line of scrimmage as he does of 10 yards through the air. If anyone is to have success then it will be Mike Gesicki, but you figure the Ravens have a plan to curb his impact. Whether it is Tua or Jacoby Brissett starting, a 2-7 Miami squad likely wont hold with the Ravens for long. I’m taking the spread here although the Ravens have a penchant for letting games be far too close in the 4th quarter.

Falcons 24 Cowboys 31

Spread: Cowboys -8.0

Pick confidence: 75%

I've been setting myself up for that Dallas debacle against Denver by pumping up the Cowboys this year. What a way to lay an egg. I am giving them a pass though. The Falcons D doesn't have the personnel to play the man match scheme the Broncos used so effectively, and are just not as good a unit in general. There is no reason to believe the Cowboys offense won't get back on track this week. Missing Tyron Smith won't help Prescott but I think a good dose of Elliot/Pollard will allow Dak to feed off the Run game. The Falcons won't be generating pressure as easily with 4 as the Broncos did and so can't play 7 in the secondary and nullify the Cowboys receivers. A long way of saying the Cowboys offense gets back to business. On the flip side, you can mask losses on offense for a game or two but to consistently win at a talent deficit is hard. The Falcons did well to cover for the loss of Ridley the past two weeks but in a game where the opposition have more firepower that kind of loss gets felt. With no run game to speak of the Falcons are one dimensional and that dimension is worse overall than their opponents this week (unlike Simiean, Callaway, Harris, Trautman and Co last week). Do I trust the Cowboys to cover the spread, they have shaken my belief enough to not go that far. Although the spread was 9.5 earlier in the week and is coming into interesting territory... Play your fantasy guys in this game. Russell Gage could be a nice value play, as long as the end zone looks don't go to Zacchaeus! 

Bills 35 Jets 13

Spread: Bills -13.5

Pick confidence: 95%

Wow. Week 9 eh. Writing this after the Thursday night game and sat here thinking.. if you had picked 2 teams from the Bills, Ravens, Jags and Dolphins that would combine to score only 16 points in a week, and you picked correctly, then you deserve to mainlined on to NFL Network. The Bills shat the bed, no other way of saying it. Having said that I'm just going to forget it now and realise they are a pissed off team playing the Jets. So, back to predicting the Bills to cover another double digit spread as if last week never happened. The Jets allowed the Colts to score on their first 6 drives, yeah they then put up some garbage time points but not sure the Bills D takes much of this game off. I'm rooting for Mike White though, love a story like his from week 9. I'm going on a limb here and saying a Bills RB might be a good DFS play. Moss is a bit banged up so I'm leaning Singletary. I've only picked a Vills RB once this year and they put up double digits, game script is the only reason. Having just checked, neither Bills RB is even listed on the rushing yards over/under on betting sites! 

Browns 23 Patriots 20

Spread: Patriots -2.5

Pick confidence 55%

This could be the toughest Pick this week. I've been on the Patriots bandwagon for a few weeks now, they look like a team that has figured out who they are and how to maximise themselves. The Brow s are coming off their most complete game of the year, where the run game dominated and set up play action for Mayfield and allowed him some easy throws. Chub  will be out for this game, and my instinct is to overreact to that. I might still be right to do so, but I did last time he was out against the Broncos and Johnson speed in and went OFF. I do worry about offensive depth for Cleveland and how their thin pass catching group will fair against a good Pats secondary. One worry for the Pats on offense was how the Panthers seemingly got to Mac Jones and made him jittery, not something we had seen from the ultra poised rookie. If the Panthers can the Brow s front certainly can. Myles Garrett will be licking his lips (and watching his ankles...). In a game this close I'm going with gut and that is Cleveland, they have the talent where it matters most, in the trenches, the offensive line creates holes for whoever the backs are, and the D line gets consistent pressure. I'm of course taking the spread. Not sure this Pats team is quite ready to consistently knock off more talented teams (not you Carolina) just yet. 

Lions 13 Steelers 20

Spread: Steelers -6.5

Pick confidence: 70% 

There's some pretty tasty odds going around for a Lions 0-17 finish. That may be a little far-fetched given the upsets we have had so far this year, but I do think the Lions skid continues. The Steelers seem to have found their identity on offense. Pretty dull.... but effective enough, as lo g as the defense plays its part. If the D gives up 30 points in a game then I don't fancy the Steelers chances of walking away with a W. Getting g the running g game going has been key, and so necessary given Big Ben's struggles when putting the team in his back. He has been a good game manager in the last few but ask him for more and there are a lot of ugly, wobbly balls falling incomplete. The Lions have been plucky on and off this year, and have run the ball well, for the Lions. Goff just hasn't been able to make enough plays to get this team over the hump. Until we see otherwise it will be far too easy to pick against the Lions. I hasn't planned this but as I'm writing this I'm going to predict the Steelers offensive scores:

Long drive with Harris gobbling up yards, Harris TD reception

Medium long drive, Harris on the ground, big play to Johnson/Claypool, short Freiermuth TD

Long drive, all Harris, Harris rushing TD

Throw in a couple field goals

Just feel the Steelers are predictable. I don't love them to cover big spreads much though, although it's coming down as the week progresses. From the above you can probably guess I'm going Harris, Freiermuth in DFS. I'm in on Freiermuth going forward, I like his upside in the red zone as Ben is not fizzing balls into receivers in tight windows, the old noodle arm is better lobbing some up to a big guy and letting him do the work. 

Update: Big Ben is out so Mason Rudolph will get the start. My score was adjusted down from 27-13 and the blurb above not changed. In previous starts Rudolph showed a penchant for checkdowns to James Conner and Jaylen Samuels so Najee Harris value remains high. I’m not so sure about the TE any more! The Lions still have to go against this Steelers D.

Jaguars 17 Colts 24

Spread: Colts -10.0

Pick confidence: 85% 

Yeah the Jags did a number on the Bills but unless they are now Superbowl favourites (they are not) then let's not overreact to one performance, in which they didn't t score a TD... the defense was impressive but there is much more tape that tells you it is not a good unit and last week was a blip. Likewise the Colts offense mauled a Jets D that has been mauled often of late. Some corrections coming in this game I feel. That was a good game from Wentz but I still can't unsee some of the throws from previous weeks that were just begging to be picked off. I'm not sure how he has gotten away with it quite as much as he has. I'm not trying to knock the guy, he has played well overall but there are bad games lurking, and coming soon I fear. Not sure this Jags secondary is the one to force it, so for another week I think the Colts keep it rolling. The Jags offense struggled massively against the Bills, the Colts won’t be as stingy. Unless the Jags can run the ball it could be a long day. In games like these you need a skill position player to step up for the underdog, in the passing game for the Jags I don't know who that could be. Colts win, I have the Jags covering the spread, correction on defense for the Jags on offense for the Colts brings me to a one score game. Maybe the final score makes the game look closer than it was. You could take a flier on a Jags receiver for DFS as game script might mean opportunity, but which one Marvin Jones maybe, but not a fan of the price. Dan Arnold, volume should be there. Its risk/reward either way.

Saints 13 Titans 23

Spread: Titans -3.0

Pick confidence: 85% 

The Saints top trio this week is Simien, Ingram and Callaway. If you were to forget the season up until now a 3pt spread in this game seems laughably low. The Saints have played greater than the sum of their parts all season but surely against a Titans team coming off a statement win and now missing their best player, Kamara, it is too much to ask to keep this one close. If they do then it will be because of the defense, which has played well until a blip last week against a limited Falcons offense. The Titans figure to regress somewhat from the display against the Rams, it would be tough to put on defensive displays like that back to back. They should only need to play 50% as well to stymie this Saints offense enough.  Rolling with the Titans D in DFS this week as a great value pick. I'm taking the Titans on the spread as this just feels like a bargain to me. 

Buccaneers 42 Washington 24

Spread:  Buccaneers -9.5

Pick confidence: 95% 

Tom Brady after a bye, coming off a loss against a team who struggles to defend the pass... Washington fans might want to tune out this week. Go for a nice walk or something. Brady was the first name in my DFS line-up, plus a Bucs WR as a stack. It was Godwin but he is listed as questionable and may be a game time decision, so Evans it is, and I'm comfortable with that. Godwin has been the guy of late, which might just mean it's Evans turn this week anyway! When I see the Bucs this year I always think Brady has had a nice game, 2 TDs and a couple hundred yards, the box score flashes and he's had the quietest 350yds, 4 TD game ever, seemingly every week. That might be the floor this week. The Bucs D needs to get right over the rest of the season to be confident in facing up against the best of the NFC in the playoffs, today might be the chance. The Heinicke shine has worn off after he out up some solid performances earlier in the year, he has struggled of late. It might be a case of some garbage time stats for the FT offense so McLaurin and McKissic could be decent plays in DFS. I fancy the Bucs to come out hot in this one and cover the spread easily. 

Panthers 23 Cardinals 24 

Spread: Cardinals -9.5

Pick confidence: 60% 

Funny game this one given both sides are likely missing starters. The Panthers will be without Sam Darnold and likely Brian Burns, the Cards are looking like they will be without Murray and Hopkins for a second week in a row. The Panthers D is not going to be as friendly to Colt McCoy and James Conner as the 49ers were. There feels like a much lower ceiling for the offense in this one. The unknown in this for me is how the Panthers offense will fair with McCartney a week healthier and PJ Walker under centre. You could easily believe Walker might just be an upgrade on Darnold the way the latter has played of late. Backups tend to check down more and in this case it will be to the best player in the stadium. I have another agenda here that clouds my judgement, my pick to win the NFC West is the Rams. At present it is just the Rams and Chiefs letting my preseason picks (and bet!) For division winners Dow,  the Cards are playing spoiler. So I want the Panthers to win this, especially given the opportunity with the Cards short-handed. If AZ go 2-0 without Murray I don't feel confident in them letting the Rams back in. Trying to stay objective, we have seen the Cards backups play very well, whereas we haven't the Panthers. I'll go with the Cards but Panthers to cover the very large spread. This could be a low scoring affair so I'm not looking this way in DFS. 

Viking 27 Chargers 33

Spread: Chargers -3.5

Pick confidence: 70% 

A battle of teams with a history of one score deciders, and neither on the right side often enough. The Vikings must still be reeling from the loss to the Ravens, whilst the Chargers offense looked like the unit we expect week in week out last week against the Eagles. The Vikings have the ability to put up points, and do so quickly but it is maddening how inconsistent the offense is. How can such a talented group, lead by a QB who is playing his best football, go to sleep so regularly for periods in games? In theory the Vikings should have a game plan to hurt the Chargers, who rank last in run D. Run Dalvin Cook and then take advantage with Jefferson, Thielen, Osborne and Conklin. We did however see the Eagles run all over the Chargers last week and come out on the losing side so it is not a guarantee. Herbert and the Chargers offense are able to cover up for the defense easily enough. Especially if the other offense is going to go several drives without hitting the scoreboard. I would love to pick the Vikings here but you are what your record is I believe Bill Parcells once said. This could easily go either way but I’m going with the Chargers in one score game (of course!), but not as close as these teams usually like to play it. I’m looking at Mike Williams to come back strong this week so have him in my DFS line-up.

Eagles 21 Broncos 24

Spread: Broncos -2.0

Pick confidence: 51%

A tough one to call here. I always feel the Eagles should be a better team than they actually are. They have been running the ball well the last two weeks, headed by Hurts. My concerns are whether they can make enough plays in the passing game, especially this week against a good Broncos secondary. I am not convinced by the Broncos after a one week blowout of the Cowboys. This is still a flawed team, but I do like how they match up against the Eagles this week. The Broncos have a two headed monster in the backfield that is churning out yards consistently. The passing game has been less consistent but played well last week, this week they are going up against and Eagles defense that is giving up a completion % of 75.5%. The Eagles have had 5 games already giving up 80% completions. If Bridgewater does anything well it is throw accurate short completions, he should have the opportunity to convert third downs if the Broncos run game gets him into third and manageable. The stats and recent performances suggest the Broncos should edge this one, but the Eagles feel like the biggest wildcard every week. They could blow the Broncos out and I’m not sure I’d be that surprised. I just can’t predict it until I see some sort of consistency and complimentary football on offense, and the defense improve in the secondary. A 2 point spread is just a field goal win, so if you think the Broncos win then why not take it. I like the Broncos backs in this game but it’s a coin flip as to touches between Gordon and Williams. Gordon has seen more red zone looks so might be the better option. At some point Williams will even those out I think.

Seahawks 27 Packers 28

Spread: Packers -3.0

Pick confidence: 60%

Two of my favourite players, and QBs going head to head here. It is great to see them both back on the field. Wilson is back at the very earliest of his projected return, exactly how healthy is he? Rodgers has missed less time but has not practiced and has had Covid. Are there any lingering effects of those? One thing we can say is that even not 100%, both these teams are better with these guys on the field. I like the Packers to pick up where they left off quicker than Wilson and the Seahawks offense. Rodgers to Adams is automatic and a missed week wont slow those guys down so much. If the Packers can score early and lean on Jones and Dillon then I think the Seahawks struggle to keep up while they work through the rust. I do think they get it going second half but spotting Rodgers any drives is not going to end well. The Packers defense is not getting enough praise for its exploits, the defensive front should be able to get after Wilson and as long as they can contain him then I think they disrupt the offense more than the Seahawks front will on the other side. If they can’t contain him then off script plays are Wilson’s specialty and don’t need as much practice given the off script nature. This game gets closer in the second half but I think the Packers run out winners in the end. I like the Rodgers/Adams stack in the DFS but do prefer the Brady/Evans one noted above. Wilson/Lockett is one I’m looking at going forward if not this week.

Chiefs 27 Raiders 23

Spread: Chiefs -2.5

Pick confidence: 55%

The Chiefs have still not given me anything to put the confidence in picking them up. I just cannot bring myself to believe they are not going to be a factor in January. If that is to be true then they HAVE to knock off divisional opponents from here on out, starting with the Raiders. The Raiders were outplayed by a Giants team who were living off moral victories up until last week. That was a Giants team missing their top skill position players and leaning on Devontae Booker and a cast of WR2’s and 3’s at best. The Chiefs D has been the strength of this team over the last two wins, spelling the offense while it struggles to put up points. The Chiefs offense has limited the turnovers that were killing this team but have given up their explosiveness in return seemingly. If the Raiders can get pressure on Mahomes rushing just 4 then this could be another long day for the Chiefs offense. They have struggled when opponents can flood the field with DBs and play coverage. I think we see a Chiefs offense that moves the ball here without showing the explosiveness we are used to. With the improvement on defense it should be enough to cover a Raiders team that may well have just succumb to all the off field dramas this year has provided. If the Chiefs can limit Waller then this offense has lost it’s big play threats outside of him and will struggle to score in a hurry. I have the Chiefs covering the spread but the way the offense has looked, they could come out flat and be under 20 again. I just can’t, or won’t, believe it will last forever, not with the talent at their disposal, and an improving O-line.

[nflweeklyuk]

Week 9 NFL predictions

Jets 17 Colts 31

Spread: Colts -10.0

Pick confidence: 95%

 Falcons 16 Saints 20

Spread: Saints -6.0

Pick confidence: 60%

The Saints really made a statement in last weeks win over the Bucs. I thought when Winston went down that the Saints would slow and the Bucs would end up powering through for a comfortable win. The Saints didn’t slow and they leant on Kamara and some easy throws for Simiean. I do think the ceiling is lower for the Saints without Winston, but he has not been the focal point of this team since week 2, that has been Kamara. The Falcons were just shut down by the Panthers and this Saints defense is a better all round unit. I don’t believe the Saints would win many games without Winston, but this one I do think they can take. The Falcons offense is struggling, especially if Pitts does not go for 100+, and the Saints will move the ball enough on the ground and on short throws to outscore the Falcons. I’m not sold on the spread, the Saints don’t have enough points in them to cover 6 in too many games so I’d be tempted by the Falcons there.

Bills 35 Jaguars 13

Spread: Bills -14.5

Pick confidence: 95%

It feels a bit like déjà vu picking the Bills at the moment. Bills win, Bills cover double digit spread…. Yawn. That is what comes when your opponents include the Texans, Dolphins and Jaguars. In between were two tough games against the Chiefs and the Titans, in which the Bills put up 30+ points. For me this is simple, the Bills score 30+ and the Bills D keeps the Jags under 20. The question is how far under 20? The Jags are in games when the run the ball, it wont be long before that game plan is out the window here. Bills cover. Emmanuel Sanders to bounce back this week with no Cole Beasley? I’m rolling with that in DFS.

Browns 23 Bengals 20

Spread: Bengals -2.5

Pick confidence: 51%

 Broncos 17 Cowboys 30

Spread: Cowboys -10

Pick confidence: 90%

 Texans 23 Dolphins 24

Spread: Dolphins -5.5

Pick confidence: 60%

It's been almost automatic to pick against the Texans, at least since Tyrod Taylor went down in Week 2. He will be back starting for the Texans this week and so they become a tougher out. He was playing really well until the injury but what will we see after a long layoff? The Texans are still a team thin on talent and will struggle to win any given week. Miami is full of talent but not living up to it. Games against the Bills aside Tua has played very well, outside the ugly, very ugly, turnovers. He should be able to move the ball against a Texans D struggling to get off the field. Until I see Miami win a game they should win comfortably I can only pick them to edge out a game, if at all. I expect the Texans to fight to the end but come up short when it counts most. With Parker out again, Waddle looks to be the apple of Tua's eye (more so than usual) if you are looking for a volume daily play.

Raiders 26 Giants 23

Spread: Raiders -3.0

Pick confidence: 65%

 Vikings 24 Ravens 30

Spread: Ravens -6.0

Pick confidence: 70%

 Patriots 24 Panthers 17

Spread: Patriots -3.5

Pick confidence: 75%

After predicting the exact score for the Patriots Chargers game last week I feel like I have found a groove with this Patriots team now. They are the Patriots that took our division relentlessly by running the ball effectively, quick, short passing and good defense. It is just not as good as when Brady was at the controls. Speaking of at the controls, the pick doesn’t change and the score doesn’t change much whether Sam Darnold starts or PJ Walker. It’s not so long ago Darnold was seeing ghosts against Bill Belichicks defense, PJ Walker won’t provide much of an upgrade or drop off. The Panthers defense is good enough to slow down the Patriots and make this a fairly low scoring game. Mac Jones has been great, completing 70% of passes, whilst throwing the third most passes in the league. The Pats will run the ball, a lot, but let Jones surgically move the ball through the air. The Patriots defense will be the unit that wins this game though. I expect some well timed turnovers to ensure the Patriots win this comfortably. McCaffrey should play, but coming of a hamstring injury he will likely be on a snap count, his presence has made this score closer.

Chargers 27 Eagles 24

Spread: Chargers -1.5

Pick confidence: 65%

 Cardinals 17 49ers 24

Spread: 49ers -2.5

Pick confidence: 51%

 Packers 27 Chiefs 30

Spread: Chiefs -7.0

Pick confidence: 65%

 Titans 28 Rams 35

Spread: Rams -7.5

Pick confidence: 70%

 Bears 17 Steelers 20

Spread: Steelers -6.0

Pick confidence: 55%

[nflweeklyuk]

Week 8 predictions

Thursday night:

Packers 20 Cardinals 28

Spread: Cardinals -6.0

Pick confidence: 70%

Well, a stroke of luck for the Cardinals here really. After a softish part to the schedule the Cards face the Packers with Aaron Rodger minus his two main weapons in the passing game, Adams and Lazard. The loss of Adams cannot be overstated, he is accounting for 44% of the Packers production through the air, which leads the league. If Rodgers had his full compliment of weapons and a healthier offensive line I wouldn’t have any hesitation pulling the trigger on a Packers win here. The Cardinals have been slow starting against inferior teams this year (Jags, Texans, 49ers) and at some point that is going to come back to bite them. Whilst I wouldn’t consider the Packers an inferior team like those listed above, a slow start is not as easily overcome when you have a hall of famer on the opposite side-line. The Cardinals are sporting one of the better defensive units in the league and I think it might be a stretch for Rodgers to put up enough points with his supporting cast to match Murray and the Cards offense. The Cards offense looks to have the advantage in health over the Packers D too. Missing your top corner and needing to defend Hopkins, Green, Kirk, Moore and Ertz is a tall order. All things being even you would say the Cardinals are likely something like a 1 point favorite, with the injuries on the Packers side then a converted TD win covers the spread, I think I’ll take that. I expect a spirited effort from the Pack but it is not enough to overcome the losses on offense and defense. We might get a different game come January.

Dolphins 20 Bills 34

Spread: Bills -14.0

Pick confidence: 85%

Panthers 23 Falcons 24

Spread: Falcons -3.0

Pick confidence: 55%

Bengals 30 Jets 13

Spread: Bengals -11.0

Pick confidence: 95%

Rams 34 Texans 7

Spread: Rams -16.0

Pick confidence: 95%

Eagles 24 Lions 21

Spread: Eagles -3.5

Pick confidence: 51%

Steelers 20 Browns 23

Spread: Browns -4.0

Pick confidence: 55%

49ers 21 Bears 24

Spread: 49ers -4.0

Pick confidence: 51%

Titans 31 Colts 30

Spread: Colts -2.5

Pick confidence: 51%

Jaguars 23 Seahawks 26

Spread: Seahawks -4.0

Pick confidence: 60%

Patriots 27 Chargers 24

Spread: Chargers -4.0

Pick confidence: 60%

Buccaneers 27 Saints 21

Spread: Buccaneers -4.0

Pick confidence: 85%

Washington 23 Broncos 17

Spread: Broncos -3.5

Pick confidence: 51%

Cowboys 34 Vikings 30

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Pick confidence: 65%

Giants 24 Chiefs 35

Spread: Chiefs -10.0

Pick confidence: 90%

[nflweeklyuk]

Week 7 NFL Predicitons

I went 10-4 on the picks in Week 6 (71%), eclipsing the 70% mark for the second week in a row. Those results put me at 62-32 for the year (66%).

Let’s go again for Week 7!

Broncos 21 Browns 20

Spread: Browns -1.5

Pick confidence: 60%

Two teams coming in that are in bad shape. The Browns are in bad shape, not only because they have lost the last two, but because they are so ravaged by injury they are missing their best players at almost every skill position. The Browns will be without the starting QB, top 2 RBs, top WR. Then there is the banged up offensive line. The Broncos are coming in as the losers of 3 straight. After starting 3-0 against teams who began the year 0-9, the Broncos have fallen to the Ravens, Steelers and Raiders. One of those being a top team and the other two being good, but flawed, teams. It was right to assume the 3-0 start was a mirage of opposition. However, the Broncos remain a competitive team for the most part, the strength of the team, the defense, has been poor for the last two weeks but might get a reprieve facing the Cleveland B team offense. I would still expect the Browns to move the ball well enough but my concern for them would be whether they have the players to finish drives in the end zone. Field goals won’t win very often, although it might run you close against a limited Broncos offense. Teddy B will need to prove he can move this unit well enough outside of garbage time to keep a run heavy, play action game plan going. In all I don’t have much confidence in this pick, I’m going with the team that has it’s choice players available, there is just too much talent sitting this one out for Cleveland to confidently pick them in this game. Of course then I am taking the spread, which has been coming down all week and may evaporate before kick off. A sneak fantasy play may be someone like David Njoku or Austin Hooper. The TE position seems to be the only healthy one for the Browns. Landry should be back for this game but I want to see how he fares before bringing him back into the fold. Especially working with a backup he has not practiced with regularly.

Falcons 23 Dolphins 24

Spread: Falcons -2.5

Pick confidence: 55% 

 Whether the Dolphins player took 1 more second before touching Shenault down would have held as time expiring is one thing, but Miami looking unprepared for a quick throw with 9 seconds on the game clock was inexcusable. There is no way they should have lost that game. Tua played well but put up only 20 points which is not going to cut it if that is the ceiling against a team coming off 20 straight losses. If you put Watson in the Miami line-up, instant contenders in the AFC, even with a shaky D. Speaking of, Miami should be healthier this week with the Return of their starting corners, a position where Miami needs improved play from their high priced stars. They will be facing a Matt Ryan led Falcons offense that is steadily improving. If they can get Calvin Ridley back into the mix then they could be good again, they will need to improve in the redzone to beat better teams with their two wins coking against the New York teams sporting a less than impressive 2-9 record to date. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball on an Atlanta D that has not impressed to date in a soft schedule outside the Bucs. Close game against two struggling teams, I'm backing Flores one more time and saying the Phins bounce back to take this one. Of course means taking the spread, but this game could go either way. 

Panthers 27 Giants 20

Spread: Panthers -3.0

Pick confidence: 70% 

 The Panthers are just the healthier team going in here (I know I said that about the Broncos...), the Giants will be without Barkley, Toney and Golladay. We've seen how Daniel Jones has struggled without his main weapons, reverting to forcing throws and having to do too much. He does have Sterling Shephard again, who caught 10 balls last week, and Darius Slayton trending toward returning. In a game however where I expect Carolina to come out and play smash mouth football, I'm not sure the Giants have the defense to force stops and give their depleted offense enough possessions to win this one. The only reason the confidence is not higher here is that Sam Darnold has regressed from his early season form in the face of tougher matchups. I believe Matt Rhule when he says things will change, that means more Hubbard less Darnold. I'm looking at Hubbard in daily fantasy as a good value start. Sterling Shepard should get volume again with so many missing g for the Giants. I'm taking the spread here, and feel confident in doing so. 

Bengals 21 Ravens 27

Spread: Ravens -6.5

Pick confidence: 75% 

 The Ravens handled the Chargers, it was brutal for LA. This Ravens team is really rolling now, I predicted at the start of the season they would be a regular season monster, but fall shirt in the playoffs with the usual inability to keep pace in am aerial battle. Jackson probably read that and decided to prove me wrong by showing his aerial prowess the last few weeks, not so much against LA, although he didn't need to. There were still some great throws in the mix which showed his development this year. The Be gals have been great this year (vs expectation anyway) but I'm not sure they are ready to go toe to toe with the AFC's best just yet. The defense will slow the Ravens, but likely not enough to give Burrow a fighting chance. Offensively this may be the biggest test the Bengals have faced, if the Ravens play like they did against another second year stud in Herbert las week the Burrow is in for a tough day. He is brilliant and I've enjoyed watching him, plus you kinda have to root for the guy after the awful injury last year. I think he acquits himself well in the face of a strong D and plenty of pressure but will be limited in big plays. The Ravens run out winners in game that should be a close one twice a year for a while. The spread feels about right here to me so picking the Ravens by a score I can understand. 

Chiefs 35 Titans 28

Spread: Chiefs -5.0

Pick confidence: 65% 

 This should shape up to be a fun one. Play your fantasy players! What a great effort and performance by the Titans to beat the Bills, Henry is just unreal. Great stat of the week, Henry leads the league in rushing yards with 783, he has 587 yards after contact (ridiculous in itself). The second leading rusher is Nick Chubb with 523 yards, Henry's yards after contact alone would be top, incredible. The offense will be fine, especially against a Chiefs D that has had problems. A second half shut out of Washington aside. Could that be a turning point? More likely the possible return of Chris Jones helps an ailing pass rush and may just be a different maker in this game. Boy there was almost time to start thinking the Chiefs offensive strikes were not just a blip on the radar after 3 ugly turnovers in the first half last week. Then they reminded us of who we know they can be, the stand out, the return of some deep shot from Mahomes. There should be plenty of opportunities against a banged up and youthful Titans secondary. I'm going to back Mahomes/Hill to win that battle all day. 8f the Titans are to keep up then improved play from Tannehill and the likes of AJ Brown is needed, it will come, but I'm betting on a KC revival and unfortunately the Titans might just be the sacrificial lamb this week, coming off a big win, it wouldn't surprise me if there was a let down for Tennessee. I haven't predicted quite that but I have gone with the Chiefs by a score and so covering the spread. If you can afford it, a Mahomes/Hill stack in daily might just pay dividends. 

Jets 10 Patriots 24

Spread: Patriots -7.0

Pick confidence: 95% 

 An impressive performance from the Pats against a vastly superior Cowboys team last weekend. Mac Jones again played well, this time with a few more flashy throws. He may not need them this weekend. The game plan for the Patriots should neatly fit the way they want to play, run the ball, matriculate with the underneath passing game and try to confuse the hell out of a rookie QB (and sometimes themselves..). The Patriots held the Jets to 6 points in Week 2 so they know how to limit this team, yes Wilson has improved but it is still game 6 for him and a visit to Foxborough against a team looking to bounce back from a heart-breaking loss might just be too much too soon. I'd be looking to start the Pats D in daily fantasy, very reasonably priced give recent matchup history!

Packers 31 Washington 20

Spread: Packers -8.0

Pick confidence: 90%

The Packers have levelled off in terms of performance since a hot streak, but are still playing more than well enough to win. It will not be long before we see the performances tick up again, my guess is that starts this weekend against a poor Washington defense. The Chiefs moved the ball all day long against this unit, and if it was not for some self-inflicted turnovers the game would have been out of sight before the end of the second quarter. It wasn’t long into the second half that happened anyway. Rodgers should carve them up with a mix of screens, underneath and some deep shots to Devante Adams. If the FT cannot bring pressure then they will not stand a chance. The Green Bay D is banged up in the secondary but the defensive front has played well enough to cover that up. Rashan Gary being a standout to me. I expect game script to mean Taylor Heinicke is dropping back to pass more than handing off, against the pressure he will likely have some short throws to backs and over the middle so I am looking at J.D. McKissic and Ricky Seals-Jones as daily fantasy options as the volume should be there, especially for the former. Washington is not a team that will compete with the better sides in the league so for me this one is an easy call, I’ll be taking the spread here, the only concern would be if the Pack don’t get pressure then the thin secondary may be there to be had.

Raiders 24 Eagles 27

Spread: Raiders -3.0

Pick confidence: 60%

The Eagles are not as bad a team as records might suggest, in my opinion. There is plenty of talent on the roster and we have seen the offense be very good in spots. It is putting it together for the majority of a game that has been the issue for this team offensively. Oh yeah, and not running Miles Sanders. Both those things should change after a week of rest, soul searching and planning. The Raiders are in a prime spot for an upset (based on spread anyway!) after putting together a pretty complete performance against the Broncos last week, somewhat against the odds. Writing this bit after seeing the Broncos taken down by the Browns B team I am not so sure what that performance taught us about the Raiders in truth. The Broncos were not able to pressure Derek Carr and so the deep game was there for Carr and the Raiders. The one thing going for the Eagles D has been consistent pressure on quarterbacks from the defensive line, with the majority coming only rushing 4. If that continues here then the extra man in coverage allows the Eagles some help covering Waller and Ruggs. Offensively the Eagles should be able to lean on the ground game, if they actually try to anyway, so a now cheap Miles Sanders might be a risk worth taking in daily fantasy. In my second line-up I’ve got Hurts and DeVonta Smith stacked, I would also consider Dallas Goedert now Ertz is out of Philly. As I’m picking the Eagles I’m taking the spread of course.

Texans 17 Cardinals 35

Spread: Cardinals -18.0

Pick confidence: 95%

 The Cards will go on as the NFLs only unbeaten team. This would be the let down of all let downs if not. For a game of the NFLs best vs the worst (probably) the Hopkins return to Houston is probably the most intriguing plot. If he then goes off it is almost sad, given the state the Texans are in after Bill O'Brien decided to wreck the team from the inside out. Even so the Cards will have plenty of chances to score on the Texans in this one and there's no way they won't have some plays drawn up for Hopkins to score in this one. Hopkins anytime scorer was first in my bet builder. This Texans team has been over matched in almost every game, and I'm not sure what they could do here to keep close. I've put 17 points but only because they will be in catch up mode early. Cooks may be a good daily play as the ball should be in the air and, well, who else is there? 18 points is one he'll of a spread, I have the difference at exactly 18 but that gap is too much for my liking really. All it takes is the Cards to sit Murray and Co for a quarter and the Texans to rack up garbage time points to kill the spread  I prefer games where the spread isn't going to be affected by starters being pulled.

Bears 23 Buccaneers 31 

Spread: Buccaneers -11.5

Pick confidence: 90%

For me, this Chicago offense is better under Fields, but the ceiling is still low. Too low to compete with the like of Brady and the Bucs. Fields is showing small strides as a passer, but there are still too many wayward throws. The Run game has really benefitted from his presence and will allow Chicago to eek out wins against fellow middle of the Pack teams. Strong D and run game is the Bears MO right now. That won't be enough against teams of this calibre, or indeed led by Aaron Rodgers. Game script should move Chicago off their preferred offensive game plan as the game goes on, at that point everything favors the Bucs. The Bears D should slow abraded slight more than recent Bucs opponents but not enough to keep this one competitive for long. The spread feels a little big for me given the Bears D. With Brown out for the Buc Mike Evans and Chris Godwin become stronger daily plays.

[nflweeklyuk]

Week 6 NFL Predictions

So we hit the 75% mark for the first time in Week 5. Lets do it again in Week 6!

I’m sitting at W52 - L28 for the year (65%), as always aiming to hit 70% on the season so some work to do, and plenty of cursing the 8-8 Week 1....

Eagles 27 Buccaneers 35

Spread: Buccaneers -7.0

Pick confidence: 85%

This should be a game to play all your fantasy players, except you, Miles Sanders. The Bucs are prone to giving up plenty of yards and points, generally through the air. The Run D has been stout but that is to be expected when you are blowing past teams in the first two quarters. Hurts has been good this year but still too streaky to trust in a game where the GOAT occupies the opposite touchline. The Eagles will miss Dallas Goedert in the passing game and will need someone to step up, Quez Watkins? Ertz might be a good fantasy spot start in this one too. Regardless, we should see some Eagles points on the board against this Tampa defensive unit that is still banged up. I don't think they will generate enough points to outscore The Bucs offense that has just been rolling. Brady had 5 TDs and 400+ yards and still sat most of the 4th last week! When faced with good, multiple, offenses this Eagles defense has struggled. The Chiefs and Cowboys went up and down the field with ease. If there is a strength on the Eagles D, it's interior pressure up front, predominantly Javon Hargrave who is having a great year. The way to disrupt Brady is interior pressure, I'm not sure one man is going to produce enough to put Brady off for enough plays and drives, not with such an explosive offense. I'm pretty comfortable taking the 7 point spread for the Bucs here.

Jaguars 20 Dolphins 23

Spread: Dolphins -3.0

Pick confidence: 60%

Its Tua time! Again! The game is just down the road from my house and it is great to see my team in my home town. Shame about the opposition from a talent perspective. I don’t mean any disrespect in that, but we only get a handful of London games and it would be great to see a Rodgers, Wilson, Murray, Jackson etc. (I’ve seen Tom Brady!). Although I completely understand any reluctance to loose games to London, our Premier League has 19 home games per year and the fans with season tickets would be fuming if a home game was lost to the US. Tough game to call though this one, Miami should win as the roster is more talented overall but has not been playing greater than the sum of its parts as it has under Flores previously. It does not help that Xavien Howard will miss this one. Still Miami should play ball control with plenty of easy reads and completions to the likes of Gaskin and Gesicki for Tua. To come out victorious the Phins will need to put a lid on the Jags run game which has shown some life in the last few weeks as Lawrence has started carrying the ball more. This should be tight and could go either way, but as a Dolphins fan in London I can’t go Jags with this pick. Not a fan of any spread in this game, let alone one that is not covered by a FG. Trevor Lawrence could be a sneaky cheap daily fantasy start here, especially if he keeps getting goal line carries.

Panthers 21 Vikings 23

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Pick confidence: 55%

When it looked like CMC might play I had the Panthers nicking this close one. The Panthers are just not the same without him. The ceiling is that much lower without him on the field. The Vikings sputtering offense is not filling me with confidence in this matchup but the game should  be slow enough, and low scoring enough for the Vikings to pound the ball and make enough plays through the air to outscore Darnold and company. With Dalvin Cook active for this week, the Cook/Mattison combination should have success against a Panthers run D that is trending in the wrong direction after a soft schedule to start the year. The Vikings are a middling defense in almost all categories, the Panthers offense could be described in the same way. This should be a close game, and I don’t see a high scoring one. Kirk Cousins is playing better than Sam Darnold right now, and the Vikings run game is probably the most trustworthy unit in this game so I give the edge to the Vikings. It’s a close call but I think the Vikings win so I don’t have a problem with taking the spread here as a FG win covers you. Mattison may be a good daily fantasy play as Cook may be eased back into action. There should be plenty of carries to go around.

Ravens 28 Chargers 27

Spread: Ravens -3.0

Pick confidence: 51%

What a great game this should be. My score prediction reflects really how tough it was to pick a winner in this game. In terms of consistency of performance, the Chargers have shown more week in week out in that regard. The Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams combination has been brilliant, and that is without Keenan Allen needing to play at his peak yet. The Chargers are going to put points on the board no matter the opponent so this should be somewhat of a shootout. The Ravens have had statement wins over the likes of the Chiefs, Broncos and Colts but have snuck past the Lions on a one of a kind play (literally never been done before) and taken a loss to the Raiders. They have won 4 straight since the loss in the opener and are coming off Lamar Jackson’s best performance ever as a passer. You better believe he can still run the ball too, as can this Ravens team, even if they haven’t tried to much recently. I’m not sure Jackson prevails in an aerial duel with Justin Herbert so the Ravens game plan may look a little more like the one we are used to seeing. The talented group of backs the Ravens have will be getting more familiar with the system every passing week and we should see that translate to the field sooner rather than later. This one is gut feel but I think we see a very different Ravens win from the last couple, with the ground game front and center. I have a little more confidence in Wink Martindale’s defense coming up with the goods than I do the Chargers so I have the Ravens nicking this one. The spread, well I don’t like any spread in games this close! You are probably playing all your fantasy players here, perhaps having a flyer on Latavius Murray if you think the Ravens look to run the ball this week.

Giants 23 Rams 35

Spread: Rams -8.5

Pick confidence: 90%

That was pretty brutal watching for any fan let alone Giants fans last week. First Saquon and Golladay, then Daniel Jones getting banged up. The former will miss this game and the latter, thankfully, has been cleared to play. That makes this score a little closer. Yeah, I did say a little. The Giants will get back Sterling Shepard, and possibly Darius Slayton to offset the loss of Kenny Golladay, even so the Giants attack is not in the same league as the Rams at present. Stafford has had a couple of quieter games since coming out hot to start the season but he started to spread the ball around to people not named Cooper Kupp last week, and the run game has been pretty stable all year round. I like the Rams to take this one comfortably, there is a lot of love for the Giants as a trap team every week but until they can field a full team on both sides of the ball I am not ready to call it. I do think they are a talented team, just going through a rough spell of luck. They might be that team the second half of the season.

Colts 27 Texans 17

Spread: Colts -10.0

Pick confidence: 85%

Two crushing losses for these teams last week against superior teams. Davis Mills played a good game against Bill Belichick and the Patriots but whilst the stats looked good, some of the throws had a touch of luck to them in my opinion. I'm not convinced a mistake free repeat is on the cards. The Texans D allowed Mac Jones and a very limited Patriots offense to march up and down the field with ease in the later stages of the game. Strange special teams decisions didn't help but when it counted the Texans couldn't come up with the plays they needed. The Colts were cruising to an upset victory over the Ravens before a fourth quarter no-one saw coming. The upside? Carson Wentz looked good, and Michael Pittman took on the lead role for this offense. The return of T.Y. Hilton should help open up the passing game for Indy too, perhaps not so soon, but certainly going forward. Both team may suffer a lapse after such epic letdown but the Colts are just the more talented team here, a win and the Titans playing the Bills might just give Colts fans hope the division is within reach. A 10 point spread is a lot but I might just take it here, although not with huge confidence. 

Washington 27 Chiefs 38

Spread: Chiefs -6.5

Pick confidence: 95% 

Lose this game and is it officially time to panic in KC? Quite possibly, even a win might just delay that question until the next game. This Washington team has an effective offense, they have a really good 1-2 punch at RB and a kind of gunslinger mentality quarterback with some weapons to throw to. That suggests another shootout is in store given how the KC defense has played so far this season, second last in total defense and dead last in scoring defense. You would still fancy Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to outscore the FT, who have similar defensive issues. Another shootout win and what would we learn about these Chiefs? Not a lot and lingering questions will persist until the defense shows up, and we see less turnovers out of the offense. Offensively the FT should provide a salve after facing the Bills last week. My projection here reflects a slight improvement defensively from the Chiefs, for no other reason than I don't think this team won't figure it out, maybe it starts this weekend... I'll nervously take the spread and would not begrudge anyone a Heinicke/McClaurin stack in daily fantasy, the latter is probably a no brainer even with a Chiefs defensive improvement. 

Bears 20 Packers 27

Spread: Packers -6.5

Pick confidence: 70%

16 QBs have taken the field for Chicago since Rodgers has been the starter for the Packers, and no one should care he could name barely any of them, as funny as it was. Jimmy Clausen anyone? The latest is Justin Fields, sporting a 2-0 record as starter. Albeit the hapless Lions and an in turmoil Raiders team who were the opponents for those 2 wins. Whilst the Bears D looked to have shut down those opponents, it was not as cut and dry when watching those games. The Lions moved the ball consistently on the defense but found unfathomable ways to not score inside the 20. Will Aaron Rodgers be so forgiving? No. The rhythm of the Packers offense has been a little off the last two weeks but I'm not betting that continues against a divisional opponent this team will be fired up to play. Rodgers will get the ball out quickly to Jones and Dillon out the backfield, and expect to see some quick throws to Tonyan too as the Pack seek to nullify the Bears pass rush. The more intriguing element of this game is what the Bears offense will present. With Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert both running g well against the Raiders, how will Matt Nagy  raft his offense. To truly fully utilise Fields talents, a Lamar Jackson/Ravens style offense would surely pay dividends. The Bears should keep this game close, I won't pick them to beat Rodgers until I know how they will do that on offense, Nagy has earned no trust in game planning so far in my eyes. The spread feels about right to me so I'm on the fence about taking it but I would edge towards GB covering. In terms of fantasy plays, the Packers backfield might be somewhere to look, perhaps Khalil Herbert too as a value start. 

Lions 17 Bengals 24

Spread: Bengals -3.5

Pick confidence: 80%

Two teams pretty used to nail-biting finishes, one seemingly doomed to be on the wrong end of them for eternity. Joe Burrow has been great again this year and is someone I think all are rooting for, outside of the AFC North anyway. The return of Tee Higgins opens up this offense more, his return saw him lead the team in targets. Chase is the man, but Higgins and Burrow have great chemistry stretching back to last year and could make this team a 'pick your poison' kind of offense. It's the Lions so the Bengals will keep the scoreboard ticking over, the Lions best chance to win games this year is lean on their ground game where their talent lies on offense, unfortunately game script is rarely in their favor. Until a banged up D gets healthy and somehow more talented it will be difficult to pick the Lions any week. Goff has had some killer turnovers but it's not like Matthew Stafford never suffered the same when having to play catch up every week. On a side note, you can't help but believe the Lions have at least 2 wins (Ravens/Vikings) if that trade never took place. I like the spread here, I'm taking it all day. For all the wide receiver hype around the Bengals, this could be a Mixon fantasy day.

Browns 28 Cardinals 27

Spread: Browns -3.5

Pick confidence: 51%

The Browns enter as favourites but I am not sure I buy that. The Cards are unbeaten and have been pretty convincing most weeks. The Browns are coming off a loss and have had their share of up and down performances. This one is more a gut call than anything, it is a tough job to remain unbeaten in the NFL, especially with good teams filling up the schedule. I think the Cards suffer their first loss of the season here, but roll into next week still a team that will be confident and feared. I wavered massively when Chubb was ruled out as I think he is somehow still underrated for this team. I back the Browns to fill the hole and Hunt will be leading the way there. Really this is a coinflip for me and I expect it to be close and down to the wire. Enjoy. No spread feels right here.

 Patriots 17 Cowboys 31

Spread: Cowboys -3.0

Pick confidence: 90%

I actually can’t believe the spread here. I don’t usually open talking about the spread but has anyone watched the Cowboys and Patriots this year? There is definitely a Patriots have been good for a long time hangover going on with the bookmakers. The Cowboys offense has been hot, both on the ground and through the air, yes, Belichick is a master at slowing teams but he just does not have the talent to slow the Cowboys enough here. They only just overcame Davis Mills and the Texans! The Cowboys are also taking the ball away at an impressive rate on defense, and generally playing better than stats suggest given teams are racking up keep up or garbage time yardage and points on them. Mac Jones has played well but 9 minute field goal drives wont be enough here. This is not particularly deep analysis here but I’m too busy putting the Cowboys at -3.0 in all my bets for the weekend. There should be plenty of opportunity for Zeke and Pollard in this one. The latter may be asked to see out the game so could be a sneaky daily play.

Broncos 21 Raiders 20

Spread: Broncos -4.0

Pick confidence: 55%

 Steelers 23 Seahawks 10

Spread: Steelers -5.0

Pick confidence: 80%

One of my favorite players in the NLF, Russell Wilson, won’t take the field this weekend against the Steelers. No Ronnie Lott style heroics to get him out there so the Seahawks will roll with Geno Smith. Geno put up 10 points and close to 150 total yards on two drives against the Rams, just before it looked like he did the most Geno thing ever throwing a pick to a defender with no one in sight. Turns out the receiver fell so we can give the benefit of the doubt. That at least serves as a segue into talking about turnovers, something that has plagued Smith as a starter over the years. There are plenty of people saying how great a team mate he is and how he has improved, but I’m not going to jump on the hype until I see anything other than the Smith who has not been a starter since 2017. The small sample vs the Rams above I take with a pinch of salt as often backups enjoy some immediate success when entering a game while defenses process and adjust. I don’t have huge faith in the Steelers but they did pull out a W against a stout Denver team with a good defense. This is a Seattle teams without a stout defense and without their superstar sticking plaster that makes all the bad stuff go away. I’m taking the spread here as I think the Steelers will have plenty on defense to lure Smith into some backbreaking turnovers. The offense has shown some life and should find this a game where they could start feeling a rhythm.

Titans 20 Bills 30

Spread: Bills -5.5

Pick confidence: 80%

The Titans may well be looking over their shoulder come Tuesday morning as the least convincing 3-3 team in the league, assuming the Colts beat the Texans as predicted above. I think the Titans run out winners of the division still but that will require them to stay healthy. This team is not the same without its outside weapons making plays set up by teams selling out to stop Derrick Henry. The defense is not a strength and Josh Allen will be able to exploit it to keep the Bills points coming. That is not the type of game the Titans excel in. Playing catch up without your top weapons fully healthy feels too much just yet. If, and its a big if, Henry rolls for 150 yards the Titans will be in this game, if not then it should be a comfortable Bills win. The Titans are less likely to stop the Bills offense than the Bills are to stop theirs so for me this should be an easy call. I'll take the spread here as I think there is a gulf in class between these teams right now, I think it closes come January though.

[nflweeklyuk]

Week 5 NFL Predictions

 We went 10-5 in Week 4, kicking myself with a couple there (looking at you Miami and New Orleans!), and then there was the Titans.... anyway lets get 12 plus this week and into the 70′s.

Rams 31 Seahawks 24

Spread: Rams -2.0

Pick confidence: 75% The Cardinals stunned the Rams last Sunday, they dominates them from start to finish really. My take is that the Rams slept walked into this one having bought their own hype a little after putting away the defending champs he week before. I don't think this team will make that mistake again. Looking for the Rams to bounce back here. The Seahawks put together their most complete performance this year (probably for most of last year too!) seeing off the 49ers comfortably in the end. Yes they gave up 400+ yards of offense but the eyeball test showed the struggles 2 9ers QBs had to put up points. The streaky offense that has gone missing in the second half of games was absent in the first half this week but Wilson finished with 3 TDs and the defense gave the offense breathing room to find its rhythm. The Rams defense should.. should... provide a trickier out for Seattle with the like of Ramsey covering D.K. Metcalf and the ever present Aaron Donald up front. This unit did just get bullied on the ground and through the air by Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds and AJ Green though so I would expect some success for Seattle’s offense. If the Rams don’t turn the ball over, like they did on two drives to go down two scores against Arizona, then I think they run out winners here, fairly comfortably. If they get behind we saw the Stafford over reliance on Kupp come out and take dimensions away from this offense. I love the spread here as I see LA winning more comfortably.

Jets 20 Falcons 21

Spread: Falcons -2.5

Pick confidence: 60%

The first London game of the year! Not one to get particularly excited about unfortunately…. Two 1-3 teams that have struggled for consistent production on offense, or at times any production on offense. The Falcons will travel without Calvin Ridley, this has tightened up my prediction here. I am almost leaning towards taking the Jets here, they shut down Tennessee in the Red Zone last week when they were missing key pieces in Brown and Jones. With Ridley out will Atlanta suffer the same fate? I’m going to shy away from actually picking the Jets and going to go with a Falcons victory here, I expect this to be the game we see Kyle Pitts get into the end zone. I don’t expect a high scoring affair and expect both sides to have some struggles moving the ball at times. I’m looking at Pitts and Carter as potential daily fantasy plays though. This game should not get away from the Jets and they should therefore be able to strike some balance on offense to help out their rookie QB who should come in with some confidence here. Expecting another turnover free week may be a bit much so the Falcons should be able to capitalise on a turnover or two. You can probably tell I’m not high on the Falcons winning this one easily so even though I hate 2.5 spreads, I might consider taking this one.

Lions 24 Vikings 31

Spread: Vikings -10.0

Pick confidence: 80%

This Lions team is going to win a game at some point and are the Vikings primed for an upset? After scoring a touchdown on the first drive against Cleveland last week the Vikings then failed to put up another point for the rest of the game. This Lions defense is not going to provide as tough a test as Myles Garrett and co, especially having lost Okwara and first round pick Jeff Okudah in the last couple of weeks. The Lions roster was thin without those losses on defense. The spread here is 10, that is a lot to spot an NFL team, especially one coming off a whopping 7 points, but the Lions have threatened to be spread killers this year (yeah I remember Week 1). The offense is slow starting but has done a good job of putting points up in garbage time as Goff has been able get production out of a very thin receiving core and some versatile backs. If we get Kirk Cousins of Weeks 1-3 then the Vikings will win this game, and it should be with ease. We have seen this team blow hot and cold over the last couple of seasons, even so this Lions team is banged up and thin anyway. Something in the back of my mind is saying trap game here though.

Saints 27 Washington 26

Spread: Saints -2.5

Pick confidence: 51%

I had Washington 27 Saints 26 with this pick all the way up to actually sitting down and writing this. I’ve flipped, but I’m not confident. I just look at the rosters and the Saints should be the better team. It hasn’t always looked like that. Taylor Heinicke cannot keep getting away with throws like that one to McLaurin without it dropping in the opposition hands at some point. That point may be this week against a Saints defense that is one of four teams that has more INTs than TDs allowed on the season. The Saints D is also second in the league in rush yards allowed, for the FT to win this one they will need to run on the Saints, the stats are not with them. However, if you watched what Saquan Barkley did to the Saints in the second half last week then there is hope for Gibson and McKissic. The wheel route to Barkley is a play that the FT actually run well, as are the screens to both backs. If Washington win it will come off these types of plays in the absence of a run game. The Saints offense worries me, they are not running or throwing the ball consistently well, and you can see Payton is not trusting Winston with the ball to go and win games. I think this one finishes close but the difference is turnovers by the Saints D, I’m calling a defensive score for the Saints in this one, so daily fantasy play possibility. The spread is not great because a field goal win kills you but I do think this one might be down to the wire.

Patriots 27 Texans 10

Spread: Patriots -9.0

Pick confidence: 95%

Texans blurbs might be a bit shorter for the foreseeable, well until Tyrod Taylor comes back to make this offense serviceable. I still worry, and have said this in previous weeks, about the Patriots ability to score points. Mac Jones played his best game against the Bucs last week but in this game he won’t need to do too much, and they won’t ask him to. I was tempted to put up a shutout here, but in reality that doesn’t happen often, especially back to back. Take that as a statement to the lack of faith I have in the Texans offense under Davis Mills. I expect points of turnovers for the Patriots, the D will be the most expensive daily play this week but it might just pay off. I’ll take the spread here and feel confident about it, even with my worries over the Pats offense.

Dolphins 20 Buccaneers 33

Spread: Buccaneers -9.5

Pick confidence: 80%

The people who have had most success against Tom Brady have often been from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, Brian Flores had some success against the Brady led Patriots. I’m a Dolphins fan and I just cannot get excited about the product on the field this year, even when Tua was playing. Yeah there was excitement about how he would develop but it hadn’t materialised in the small sample size this year. The defense has all the pieces to be successful and be the force it was last year, there is just no support from the offense at present. Garbage time excluded. The Bucs have the offense to keep consistently putting points on the board against the Phins D and so the game script should get away from Miami eventually and I don’t have much faith in Brissett matching Brady throw for throw. Miami should rack up plenty of yards, everyone else has against the Bucs so far, but it won’t translate to a competitive affair unfortunately. Jonathan Taylor had his way with the Miami run D, I don’t expect the Bucs to lean on it like the Colts did but the threat of Brady should leave a leaky run D primed for big plays. I would be looking at Leonard Fournette as a daily fantasy play. You could make a case here for Gesicki as a volume play at TE here, he has had 6 and 10 targets in the last two games, also finding the end zone last week. 9.5 is a big spread to give a team not seeing off teams like we have expected. I do think they change that this week but history does not give me confidence in that.

Packers 27 Bengals 24

Spread: Packers -3.0

Pick confidence: 75%

These are no longer the Cincinnati Bungals, but I'm not quite ready to put them in the upper echelon of teams in the league, they just edged out the lowly Jags in OT after all. This week against Aaron Rodgers, Davate Adams and Aaron Jones, presents an altogether different level of opposition. Yes, the Cincy D is playing well, especially up front, and will benefit from the Return of Bates and Awuzie in the secondary, but I think just slowing down Rodgers is the best we can hope for here. With Jaire Alexander looking unlikely to go I’ve snugged up my prediction here as the Bengals should have opportunity to hurt the Packers deep, Chase having turned into one of the best deep threats in the league after only 4 weeks. The return of Tee Higgins should not be underestimated here either. I think the Packers are rolling and still smarting from the opening day loss to the Saints, a smarting Aaron Rodgers is not someone I will bet against very often. This feels like a season for the Bengals where they win some close ones they probably shouldn’t but lose some they should probably win. Just this week I think they lose a close one they should probably lose. Next year might just be the year for the Bengals to properly break out. We shall see how they handle the better teams in their own division soon enough. The spread feels about right to me given the injuries, or return from injury of key players for both teams.

 Broncos 23 Steelers 20

Spread: Broncos -1.5

Pick confidence: 55%

This pick is based on Teddy Bridgewater playing. The Broncos offense is just good enough to get it done with Teddy at QB, it is not otherwise. If the Steelers can click and find sustained offense then they should be the better team in this matchup. Until they actually show that though, it is hard to pick them against anyone other than the lower teams, the Broncos have a good defense and competent offense. That is more than the Steelers have shown so far. The Steelers running game is essentially a screen or quick throw to Najee Harris for 5 or fewer yards. That won’t cut it against good defensive units. Until they can generate a real ground game Big Ben is going to have to keep taking shots into tight coverage. The Broncos offense does concern me with this pick, which is why the confidence is pretty low. It is entirely possible the Steelers shut down the Broncos passing game and get to play an offensively offensive slugfest. If so they may well just be a bit better at that type of contest with an old head at quarterback and Head Coach who has thrived in those games before. If you think the Broncos win then take the spread. I am annoyed I did not place my bets earlier in the week when the Steelers were favoured by 1.5, that was with Bridgewater’s status in doubt however. I’m probably looking somewhere else for my daily fantasy plays.

Eagles 24 Panthers 27

Spread: Panthers -4.0

Pick confidence: 55%

I certainly feel like one of these days the Eagles are going to knock off a top team. They have that kind of offense that can put points up in a hurry whilst also going missing for too longer stretch. If it all comes together for a game they will win a game they are not expected too. Do I think it is this one? Not so much, the Cowboys blew past this Carolina D in over the course of just over a quarter, but as you will see later I think the Cowboys have something brewing. The Eagles are nowhere near consistent enough. They have to get more out of Miles Sanders if they are going to sustain on offense. Gainwell has looked great to me but their first and second down back needs to produce more to open up the game for Hurts. The Panthers D should find the going easier here but again I think we get an idea of where they are really at, good, but not great in my opinion. Early season schedule inflated the hype around this unit. If Darnold has to run to put up points for this offense as often as he is then that might spell difficulty later in the year. Limiting turnovers and playing solid defense will win the Panthers plenty of games against poor and mediocre teams. Here it just feels like the Eagles D might be the unit that lets them down in this one. It should be a close game perhaps closer than the spread.

Titans 31 Jaguars 17

Spread: Titans -4.0

Pick confidence: 90%

My confidence in this one is high even though the Titans just laid an egg against the Jets. This feels like a Derrick Henry monster game, well it always does against the Jags to be fair. The Titans need to just let their best player take over the game, even if it means a slow-ish first half. Wear the Jags down and let Henry win you the game from the third quarter on. A.J. Brown should be back and so the Jags will actually have to account for the passing game, unlike the Jets last week. The Jags offense should not put up enough points to sway the Titans from their game plan. I am taking the 4 point spread all day long here. The Titans only don’t get a 95% (highest) pick confidence because they just lost to the Jets. That’s on them. I am putting Henry straight in my daily fantasy line up and scratching around elsewhere for players. The Titans are my survivor pick for the week.

Browns 30 Chargers 31

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Pick confidence: 51%

This could be the game of the week, quite easily. However the Browns do have a habit of every so often getting involved in a 20 point stinker. See the Vikings game last week. Thankfully though, I don’t think that is Justin Herbert’s M.O. The guy is set to attack and never takes his foot off the gas. Loved Brandon Staley’s comments during the week where he explained his philosophy for the run game, worth listening too if you get the chance, he has a bright future as a Head Coach. My fear for the Chargers here is that their leaky run D is found out by a Browns team that will test it. Then test it again, and then some more. I’ve seen a lot of “this is Kareem Hunt’s game” doing the rounds, when tat happens I tend to double down on Nick Chubb, the Browns seem to hear it too and remember who their best weapon is. In truth most games are Chubb and Hunt games, no reason this should be different. The Browns game plan works so well against most teams, but against quick strike offenses like the Chiefs and Chargers, the effectiveness is reduced somewhat as time is not so much of an issue. These teams are very evenly matched and should both be factors come January, I slightly prefer what I have seen from the Chargers over the Browns, the emergence of Mike Williams as more than a tall red zone threat has opened up this offense in a scary way. The spread is dicey at 2.5 but a field goal wins it for you. My prediction is based on just how close these teams are and how difficult it was to pull the trigger on a winner. Play all your fantasy players in this game. Watch it be one of those 20 pointers now I’ve said that!

Bears 21 Raiders 24

Spread: Raiders -5.5

Pick confidence: 60%

The Bears are playing better each week seemingly, the Raiders worse. Who do I have more confidence in – the Bears D and Justin Fields, or Derek Carr and the Raiders offense. On showings to date I side, very slightly, with the latter. Carr has earned the right for the benefit of the doubt when going head to head with a rookie QB. The Bears will also be without David Montgomery who, after a slow start to his career, has emerged as a true franchise back. He will be hard to replace. Fields first action saw him overcome the Lions who are sitting at 0-4 on the year, I think he did some nice things but the ground game was the key to that win, which became a bit tighter than it should have been. The Lions moved the ball but found bizarre ways not to score. The Raiders will not be so generous. If the Bears can move the ball consistently on the ground then they can win this one, if it has to be put on Fields shoulders then I’m not sure he is there just yet. The Bears D will limit the Raiders, I don’t think we see 30 points on them much this year, if at all, but the ceiling for the Raiders offense might just be higher than the Bears. For now. The Spread feels a little big for me with the Bears D playing well and the offense showing signs of life. Not sure this is one to look for too many fantasy starters.

49ers 24 Cardinals 27

Spread: Cardinals -5.5

Pick confidence 55%

Man do the Cardinals look for real?! That was a whooping they put on the Rams, the team I thought might just be the number 1 in the NFC after taking down the reigning champs. Murray is MVP front runner right now and I’m not sure it’s close at the moment. Are we going to see a come down game for the Cards? I think back to last year when Arizona came out on fire and beat good teams before losing to the Lions in shock fashion. I’m not sure this is the game for that, although I do think this will be a close contest. If this had been a non-divisional opponent with a mediocre record I actually think it is prime territory for an upset, but it is the NFC West 49ers and that should be enough to get this team up for this game. Trey Lance will be starting for the 9ers and I’m not going to be the one to bet against Kyle Shanahan, and a full week of practice, coming up with a game plan to utilise his running QB. Elijah Mitchell is back and so the depth chart looks a little deeper at RB this week. Weird saying that as I had no idea who he was a few weeks ago. His speed shows though and we know what Shanahan has done with the like of Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert in recent years. I expect a heavy dose of creative run game concepts and that should be enough to keep the 9ers in the game until late. I am just not sure Murray and the Cardinals quick strike offense will be kept quiet enough. The Spread feels, on pure gut instinct, a little high for me here so I might take the 9ers on that. Lance might be an intriguing daily play.

Giants 21 Cowboys 35

Spread: Cowboys -7.0

Pick confidence: 90%

For me it firmly feels like that point in the season where Dallas ramps up the expectations with some big performances. Whether they can sustain, and stay healthy, remains to be seen but this team has the talent to go deep in January. A lot of people are seeing this as a trap game for the Cowboys, I don’t. I think they go out and handle the Giants. The way Elliot and Pollard have been running, and catching the ball is going to cause problems for teams all day long. The Cowboys can wear you down and make you play the run, then hit Lamb, Cooper, Schultz or Wilson (he’s made some niiiiice plays) deep with favourable matchups on the outside. Daniel Jones has probably put together the best string of performances in his career of late, but in a shootout I don’t trust him or his supporting cast. Golladay is starting to look like the guy who caught everything in Detroit but without Shephard and Slayton this offense looks thin. Toney is an intriguing prospect, his acceleration looks unreal, and will be interesting to see if they can get him into the game more. With a ball-hawking secondary, well just Diggs really, the Cowboys should be confident in a few takeaway opportunities coming their way as the Giants air it out to keep up. I’m super confident in this one, and I’m taking a fairly big spread.

Bills 33 Chiefs 34

Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Pick confidence: 55%

This really should be the game of the week. Mahomes and the Chiefs have had the Bills number so far in the Mahomes vs Allen rivalry that we should be thankful we get to watch for many years to come. You better believe Allen knows that too. Sometimes I tend to roll with a trend until I see that person/team get the monkey off their back, and I’m going to do that here. The Bills look razor sharp on defense, yes they have played some pretty shoddy competition but the eyeball test tells you this group is for real. The offense looks sharper every week too. Whereas the Chiefs offense looks as sharp as always, their defense looks horrendous. In the simple world of Bills offense good, Chiefs offense good, Bills defense good, Chiefs defense terrible, I should be picking the Bills. Sometimes it all goes out the window, these two teams have recent history, and they both know they will be rivals for years to come. You should see the best versions of these teams show up. In this kind of game the player who’s name is my head gets the W. That is Mahomes, he is the best player on the field. This game could go either way though and even a 3 point spread feels like too much for either side. Hell, it will just be fun to watch this one. Big plays should abound.

Colts 21 Ravens 28

Spread: Ravens -7.0

Pick confidence: 80%

I think I have too much confidence in the Ravens some weeks and they scrape a win, then I adjust accordingly and they blow out a decent team. The Colts put together their best performance of the year against Miami, how much that tells us might be debatable. Wentz looked a lot better in the game and the ground game churned out yards. No one runs the ball in the red zone more than the Colts. I’m not sure that works against the Ravens, and I’m not sure I trust any of the Colts receivers to be reliable enough targets to consistently work in the tight spaces near the goal line. It’s about time Michael Pittman steps up and becomes that guy, I’m not betting Moe Allie-Cox repeats. That’s not a knock on him by the way. The Colts defense has not built on the promise it showed last year. Lamar Jackson’s deep ball has been quietly good this year, quietly because it is not caught often enough, even when perfectly thrown. It has been perfectly thrown plenty of times. Hollywood Brown did bring one in against the Broncos but previous weeks leave you thinking Mark Andrews is by far the best receiver on this team. There were not as many deep shots against the Broncos as there have been against previous opposition but there should be plenty of opportunity against the Colts. I think we start to see the Ravens turn it up a notch on both sides of the ball. The spread is high here but I’m not too afraid to take it.

[nflweeklyuk]

Week 4 NFL Predictions

Week 3 saw me go 11-5 for the second week in a row, a 69% clip. 70% in predictions is pretty high standard I’ve found over the years and what I look to achieve for a good season. After a bad Week 1 (50%) I’m sitting at W30-L18 on the year, or 63%. That needs to come up, and Week 4 will hopefully do that! Game picks below. Enjoy!

Jaguars 17 Bengals 23

Spread: Bengals -7.5

Pick confidence: 80%

Given the Jaguars struggles so far this season the Bengals come into this one as heavy favourites. I do think they walk away with the W at the end of the day but I have a feeling it may be closer than records and performances suggest. The Bengals are a top 8 team against the run and are tied for 4th in sacks on the year to date with 10. This suggests that they are in a good spot to slow the Jags running game and pressure the rookie passer. This is exactly the opposite of what a rookie passer needs, with Trevor Lawrence having thrown 2+ picks in first three games of the year the Jags really need to lean on the run game and take the pressure off his shoulders. The stats suggest that may be tricky. The Jags run D has been average in yds allowed but has allowed the 3rd most TDs with 5. On the flip side they have allowed a lot of passing yds and not so many TDs through the air. All that points to Burrow being able to move the ball fairly freely and the Bengals needing to run well in the red zone. Joe Mixon should be up to the task and I would look for him to have a big night here. When you watch the Bengals though I see steady but not spectacular. Therefore I think this is not a hugely high scoring game, I don’t think the Jags will do enough to put the Bengals offense on notice. Look for a fair few long drives that run the clock in a comfortable but not spectacular Bengals win. 7.5 is a fair bit to spot the Bengals so I am not confident about the spread here, but they should run out winners.

Titans 24 Jets 20

Spread: Titans -6.5

Pick confidence: 75%

The Titans will be missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones in this one so there is slight concern over who is going to pick up the slack on offense. Of course the game plan becomes even more reliant on Derrick Henry, however the Titans may find it tough sledding in the early going as the Jets allow one of the lower yards per attempt on the ground, 3.8 ypc, in the league. I do expect them to stay on the run game and for this to eventually take it’s toll on a fairly good Jets unit. The game script should help the Titans here in that it is unlikely the Jets will get out to a lead and force Tennessee off their game plan. The Jets offense has been the most difficult to watch (even you Chicago) through the early season, they should find a bit more success against the Titans than they have had against 3 really good defensive units to start the year. I just do not thing they have the horses this year, we could be looking at the first 0-17 team if this offense does not start protecting Zach Wilson and giving him some easier throws. The losses on offense for the Titans limit their effectiveness on play action but I think they run, literally, away with this one in the second half. Perhaps look for someone like Jeremy McNichols to see an increased workload as a pass catching option out of the backfield, sleeper daily fantasy option potentially. On the road and banged up the spread here feels a little high, although it has come down over the course of the week.

Chiefs 35 Eagles 27

Spread: Chiefs -7.0

Pick confidence: 85%

I’ve got this being a high scoring one. Watching Dallas carve up the Eagles with ease gives me no reason to believe Patrick Mahomes won’t do the same if not more. I think this one looks like a blow out before a late game Eagles surge that really just window dresses the result. Seeing Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin get involved with ease against these Eagles must have Travis Kelce chomping at the bit to get out there. I think Mahomes comes out with something to prove (not necessary, but…) and puts on a show. The Chiefs D is still there to be had and the Eagles have proved they can generate offense, even if it is often playing from behind. I have the Chiefs winning their division, and I’m still confident in that, even with the competition in the West, this defense will turn a corner at some point, it could be in the first half here against the Eagles. I would still play my Eagles in fantasy as there should be plenty of garbage time points to go around! The Chiefs defense to date however should make anyone nervous about a 7 point spread.

Panthers 23 Cowboys 26

Spread: Cowboys -4.0

Pick confidence: 60%

A battle of two teams playing well. The Panthers lead the league in both passing and rushing yards allowed this season. At 2.6 yards per carry (ypc) allowed on the ground the Panthers run D vs the Dallas running backs looks to be strength on strength. On the flip side the Cowboys have not allowed many rushing yards but those yards have come at a 4.7 ypc clip. Chuba Hubbard is not Christian McCaffrey, this game may hinge on whether the rookie can carry the load in what should be a fairly low scoring affair. The Panthers have not conceded more than 14 points this season, but they have played the Jets, Saints and Texans. The Cowboys present an all around different proposition with an offense that can beat you in any way and a defense that, whilst giving up yards and points has also been opportunistic and forced 7 turnovers through 3 games, including a league leading 6 INTs. At this point I think I trust the team with better talent on offense in a game that should stay close throughout. The Panthers have yet to prove they can take on top notch opposition. This is the game to prove that, my guess is they prove they will be a tough out for any opponent, but not quite a team ready to make a run in the playoffs. Dallas could certainly make some noise come January.

Lions 17 Bears 20

Spread: Bears -2.5

Pick confidence: 55%

Tough one to call. The Bears defense figures to be the best unit in this game and so the Lions do not project to score many points here. However, did you see the Bears offense last week? Ugly stuff. You have to figure it is not that bad again with another week to tailor more to Justin Fields skillset. The Lions D may provide the salve the Bears need to get the ball moving on offense, although the best way to attack them is through the air where they have conceded the 5th most scores this year. The Bears figure to try and run the ball early and often, the Lions run defense is better than the pass defense but the game script here should allow Matt Nagy and co to keep running the ball and wear the Lions down. The game script looking to be a low scoring, plenty of punts affair. I am banking on the Bears defense providing a couple of short fields to … Fields, perhaps even throw in a defensive score. The Lions have competed for halves of games so far this year. They will need to compete for the full game here to get a win. I don’t have conviction in picking either of these teams given their showings so far this year but I’ll back the better defense in this one. I hate 2.5 spreads.  Not much confidence in taking it here but if you think the Bears win then anything between 0 and 2.5 gives you a shot. Look for Montgomery to perhaps have a decent day here, the opportunity should be there and quick throws to the backs may be on the cards for the rookie QB. We saw what Aaron Jones did against these Lions.

Washington 23 Falcons 19

Spread: Washington -2.0

Pick confidence: 55%

A slew of games that could go either way this week, this being one of them. Who do you trust here? The correct answer is no one. I correctly picked the Falcons to win last week, something almost unheard of. I just can’t pick them to win again, even though something is telling me to do so. I see Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley and think there is no way this team struggles to move the ball, then every week they do. This is now becoming a worrying problem rather than a scheme adjustment. If they couldn’t get it going against the Giants then in theory the Washington defense should be the team they bounce back against. Although I have more faith in the Washington D bouncing back right now than I do the Falcons offense. I think we see the FT front get after Matt Ryan in this one, creating a turnover or two. The FT ground game has looked good the last couple of weeks and the Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic one-two punch is something I’m feeling, especially agains this Falcons unit. Taylor Heinicke has played well but been let down by his defense. If they see improvement on that side of the ball then I think Washington puts up enough to take the W this week. I’m looking at Gibson as a daily fantasy play here. Again though this looks to be a close, low scoring affair so could go either way – especially if this is the week the Falcons make me look silly again and break out on offense.

Texans 17 Bills 41

Spread: Bills -17.0

Pick confidence: 95%

Not often I predict 40+ points but the Bills clicked in Week 3, fully clicked. The D showed up against the Dolphins the week before but watching that game the offense was still not in sync fully. It was last week. That should scare the Texans who are coming in with a rookie QB who was never supposed to start and a defense that is getting worse as the weeks go by. If Davis Mills can't limit the 3 and outs the this game will get ugly. The Bills should get the opportunity to try and get the ground game going so Singletary and Moss look like good plays in fantasy, Moss could be a good value daily play. Not sure there is much else to say here other than the spread here is ridiculously high (3 scores!) and I'm still taking it! You know Josh Allen is thinking MVP, because it is all everyone has been talking about all offseason.

Browns 27 Vikings 24

Spread: Browns -1.0

Pick confidence: 55%

The Browns enter Week 4 second in the league in rushing and have accounted for 8 scores on the ground, 3 more than anyone else in the league. Th Vikings have been average against the run but have been one of the leagues worst units against the pass, despite racking up an impressive 10 sacks so far. I haven’t seen anything to suggest the Browns won’t have their way with plan A, run the ball. This is a different attack to those encountered by Minnesota to date. The Browns have successfully shut down opposing air attacks so they should be able to slow the Vikings and Kirk Cousins who is averaging 306 yards per game through the air. The Vikings own a top 10 run game but have only accounted for a single score on the ground. The Browns D can also boast a spot in the top 5 in yards allowed on the ground so the Vikings are going to find running the ball tough also. All of the above would suggest that the Browns D should be in a position to slow down the Vikings and capitalise off play action to put points on the board. In reality this feels like a close matchup, the eyeball test of the Browns doesn’t quite match the stats. I think this one could easily go either way but I will go with the Browns. A 1 point spread is often worth taking if you think the team will run out a winner in the game give the scoring systems in the NFL.

Giants 20 Saints 27

Spread: Saints -7.0

Pick confidence: 70%

Did we see the real Saints last week, the team that was beating up on the Patriots? Dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against a Patriots team is something that should propel you to plenty of wins, especially against winless teams. I'm still nervous about the Saints given the up and down nature of their performances, this week projects to have an additional factor in the raucous home crowd that needs a footballing reprieve. I think the Saints run out winners here but it's not an easy win. The Giants run game is showing life and Daniel Jones has nipped the crushing turnovers in the bud to some extent, the loss of two of their top receivers in Shephard and Slayton will mean someone will need to step up, Kadarius Toney? The defense has played well before crumbling late in the last two weeks against teams struggling offensively. I thinknwe see the same Saints we saw last weekend, a group that will get traction for Kamara in the ground game and a defensive line that will disrupt the Giant passing game. Ultimately I think the Saints have the more complete roster and the momentum to win this one. I wouldn't have much confidence in the spread here if the Giants were healthy on offense but it may be worth taking now. 

Dolphins 24 Colts 17

Spread: Dolphins -2.0

Pick confidence: 51%

Another tough pick this week. The strength of this Dolphins team is the corners. The weakness for this Indy team is the weapons on the outside. I like Xavien Howard and Byron Jones vs Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Can the Colts do enough damage with tight ends over the middle? Perhaps, but it figures to be the ground game that needs to do the work against the Phins. Heading in to Week 4 only 2 teams have bee run on more than the Dolphins, they ypc allowed is average but Miami is sitting at 1-2 so a run heavy game plan seems to be a decent approach. Jonathan Taylor and Nyeim Hines figure to get plenty of opportunity, especially if the corner lock down the Indy passing attack. The Jacoby Brisset revenge game is probably quite rightly not getting much air time but he is a likeable guy and the type of person who will elevate his game for this type of matchup. He seemed to find some rhythm with Mike Gesicki in the second half against the Raiders and the TE will certainly be needed to keep the chains moving for Miami. Waddle is seemingly hauling in lots of balls but putting up very meagre yardage. It’s only a matter of time until the speedster breaks one, I’m feeling that in this game. The Colts have not given up huge yardage through the air, most of the damage has come from the opposition ground game in that regard, not an area Miami has been strong in, but they have given up a joint league leading 9 scores through the air, suggesting that when opposing teams get into the red zone, success through the air is on the cards. This feels like one of those Durham Smythe TD grab kind of games. That is not a daily fantasy suggestion though, just to be clear. I figure a low scoring affair with Miami just edging it in the 4th with a good performance from Jacoby Brisset. Wentz struggles against tight coverage and has to lean on his TE and RBs to get this offense moving. I’m not in love with the spread but Dolphins win then I take the 2.0.

Cardinals 20 Rams 28

Spread: Rams -4.0

Pick confidence: 70%

I was high on the Rams at the start of the season, picking them to win the NFC West. I did wonder how they would fare against the top teams in the league, enter the Bucs. The Rams outplayed the reigning champs throughout and have cemented themselves as a powerhouse in the league. The main reason I was so high on the Rams was the addition of Stafford. Playing on a bad Lions team he always elevated those around him, now he has the supporting cast on offense and a great defense to support him. Its going to take a very good all-round team to challenge ge the Rams. The Cardinals may be a team that could do just that, however I don't think their defense is playing well enough right now to limit the Rams offense. After exploding in Week 1 this Cardinals team have been a missed FG away from 36 points and an L to the Vikings, and in a 9 point hole with 3 minutes to play in the 3rd against the lowly Jags. The defense gave up 159 on the ground to the Jags. If the Rams have success on the ground it will only make Stafford more dangerous, I don't see the Cards holding this offense down. Murray will likely be playing from behind and we have seen him force throws and turn the ball over, this Rams team will feast on that. I think the Rams expose the Cards limitations in this one. I feel pretty confident about the Rams covering the spread on this one.

Seahawks 26 49ers 27

Spread: 49ers -2.5

Pick confidence: 55%

Another toss up game in a week with toss up type matchups. No team has been run on more than the Seahawks this year, giving up 4.5 ypc the 49ers run game should get going enough to open up play action for Garropolo. The connection with Deebo Samuel looks to be heating up, getting Aiyuk involved more has helped this offenses production. The Seahawks D ranks in the bottom 10 against the pass and bottom 3 against the run, they are also not turning the opposition over. This should mean the 49ers put points on the board consistently, whilst sustaining drives and limiting Seahawks possessions. The Seahawks can be a quick strike offense with D.K. Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett, but they can also be very inconsistent. Wilson has been sacked 8 times this year and so the 49ers front should be able to get after him and disrupt the passing game, the caveat there is that Wilson is pretty used to this and often makes his best plays while improvising. I love Russell Wilson, he is one of my favourite players in the league but he can only do so much and teams that give up so much on defense don’t tend to win games against top opposition. Therefore I’m picking the 9ers here, it should be close and could go either way but I’ll give the edge to the side that is more likely to make plays on defense here.

Steelers 21 Packers 28

Spread: -6.0

Pick confidence: 80%

The Steelers just look horrid on offense right now. Their big plays, infrequent as they have been, were tending to be to Chase Claypool, he is out for this one and it leave me wondering where the offense will come from. Najee Harris had an insane amount of catches and touches last week but it is not translating to points. Teams are not afraid of Roethlisberger’s deep ball this year, rightly so as the completion percentage is low. Have we seen the best he has to offer? Unfortunately that may be the case. The Packers are a top 10 defense against the pass, outside of being on the end of 9 scores through the air, so moving the ball through the air projects to be difficult again for the Steelers. If the Steeler’s D can keep this game close through the first half and try to establish the run game, even if it is screens and short passes then this could be closer than most predict. I just have a feeling there are a couple of turnovers coming from Big Ben, looking at you Jaire Alexander. How well the Packers fair on offense may depend on the health of T.J. Watt. If he can go then this defense may be able to pressure Aaron Rodgers and limit the offensive production. In reality my prediction for this game is that Rodgers and co move the ball well enough and benefit from a couple of turnovers, helping them to a comfortable-ish win.

Broncos 21 Ravens 26

Spread: Ravens -1.0

Pick confidence: 75%

There is a lot of love for the Broncos coming into this one, I am not quite buying it just yet. The opposition has not been great this year in the 3-0 start. The Ravens represent a big step up in talent. Jackson looks like he is going to be good to go and he just projects as a bigger difference maker than Teddy Bridgewater. The Broncos have benefitted from being able to play fairly conservatively on offense given the game scripts in the first three weeks. I expect the Ravens to come out and establish the running game early in this one. That would look difficult against the number 2 ranked run D, however I’m not convinced given the opposition faced to date. The Ravens run game is a different beast altogether. This pick is more a gut feel one than anything as the broncos have not faced the litmus test this year, whereas the Ravens have had tough fixtures and pulled through in adversity a couple of time already. There is offense to be had against the Ravens D but I want to see the Broncos let loose and beat a team on offense before I pick them over the top tier teams. I think the spread is a steal here.

Buccaneers 30 Patriots 17

Spread: Buccaneers -6.5

Pick confidence: 85%

An understandable amount of hype about this game given the history. It just doesn’t feel like a close game in my mind. The Buccaneers just have the better team, there is a huge difference in the skill position players here on offense. The Patriots defense looks to be better than the Bucs but I would trust Tom Brady to pick apart the Patriots over Mac Jones on the Bucs. Yes, if anyone could scheme up something to slow Tom Brady it would be Bill Belichick, but you also need the talent to see that through. I’m not sure that this Patriots roster is capable of competing with the reigning champs. I think there is plenty of overthinking being done in reference to this game. Bucs run out easy winners, take the spread.

Raiders 33 Chargers 30

Spread: Chargers -3.0

Pick confidence: 55%

Chalk up another toss up game. Two quarterbacks who are playing well, going against two defenses that are susceptible to racking up points against. Both offenses rank in the top 5 in passing, the Raiders taking the top spot. This game might come down to who I trust most to disrupt the other teams passing game, the Raiders look to have the edge there as they have shown much more in terms of pressuring the passer so far this year. Whatever happens play all your Raiders and Chargers in fantasy! The best shot the Chargers have here is to shut down Darren Waller, we have seen Derwin James do just that to the likes of Travis Kelce in previous years, but not this year however. This game could go either way, Herbert has been money on third down, and will need to be again. At present though I just feel like the momentum is with the Raiders. They know they will need to win this one to keep the Chiefs in the rear-view in this division.

[nflweeklyuk]

Daily fantasy lineup

Herbert - the game script figures to put the ball in Herberts hands early and often, he always has the upside of running one in.

Edmonds - again a game plan play here. The Cards look to be up early against the Jags and so should try and get the run game going.

CEH - Andy Reid loves a redemption narrative, nothing more that a gut feel play here. Also thinking it’s coming time we sight of the Chiefs change up they throw out there every now and then.

Kupp - he went well for me last week and has a good matchup this week in a game that could see plenty of points.

Williams - stack with Herbert. Williams has had 8 receptions in each of the first two weeks. Typically his targets go up in the red zone.

Moore - Hopkins is banged up and the game against the Jags should be a slam dunk. Time to give the rookie his shot after a strong game last week?

Hockenson - his targets have been consistent and the Lions look to be playing catch up in this one.

Brown - see my predictions for this one. The Titans found their groove last week, Tannehill to Brown on play action all day long.

Cardinals - Lawrence has thrown 5 INTs playing from behind, value pick here potentially.

Good luck all!

[nflweeklyuk]

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Week 2 proved to be a return to at least my normal accuracy with an W11 L5 record on predictions. I’ll pick out a few highlights from my predictions as well as any stinkers (yeah you Saints) as we go. Week 3 predictions below. Enjoy!

Panthers 24 Texans 6

Spread: Panthers -8.0

Pick confidence: 85%

This is not what prime time is all about. Backup rookie quarterbacks vs good defenses. The Texans were middle of the pack in both passing and rushing stats through 2 weeks, but that was with Tyrod Taylor in for the most part. Davis Mills will get the start on Thursday and from what we saw Sunday, plus a short week, I don’t think we can expect too much out of the Texans offense regardless of opponent. Problem here is that the opponent has a defense that is crushing it this season. The Panthers lead the league in both pass and rushing yards allowed through two weeks, the Jets and Saints may not have posed the ultimate test but these are professional footballers. The Texans with Taylor would struggle to move the ball consistently here, that won’t be any easier with Mills at QB. On the other side, the Panthers have moved the ball well and Darnold looks a lot more comfortable with weapons around him and an offensive line that has only allowed 3 sacks through 2 weeks. I think there is still a ceiling to this offense so until I see them hit 30 points I won’t be predicting it. This should be a comfortable win and I don’t think the Texans make it to pay dirt.

Colts 17 Titans 31

Spread: Titans -6.0

Pick confidence: 80%

It’s unclear as to whether Wentz will start this game after spraining both ankles on the same play last week, I have therefore gone for a mid-point, with Wentz the Colts score 24, without they could well only put up 10! Either way I think the Titans run out fairly comfortable winners here. It did look like something clicked for the Titans in the second half last week. Teams who are losing don’t go ground game heavy, unless they’ve remembered who they are. Tannehill is a good NFL QB, he is not great. When asked to hit wide open receivers on play action because Henry is being a force of nature on most other plays, Tannehill thrives. It happened last year as well, it’s like the Titans buy the hype that they’ve suddenly uncovered a great in Tannehill and they then put it on him, they falter and then revert to the game plan that makes them a threat to anyone. I feel like this game will be the one where we see it from the off. Look for a couple of Henry TDs and I’m going for 2 strikes to AJ Brown here too. In the first half last week the Colts stayed with the Rams and even should have been up, they had 2 red zone trips that netted 0 points (downs and INT). Those kind of miscues sink you against good teams. It was also noticeable that Wentz was running for his life, now the Titans are not going to bring pressure like Donald and co but whoever is back there is unlikely to be comfortable all day. It does not bode well in this matchup, especially if the Titans shorten the game like they should with their run first offense. No Wentz, then the spread is a steal. With Wentz, spotting a division rival sat at 0-2 six feels less secure. I’d probably still take it.

Falcons 27 Giants 26

Spread: Giants -3.0

Pick confidence: 51%

The Falcons have been my nemesis with these predictions in the last couple of years. An offense that contains so much talent but produces so inconsistently makes the team hard to pick correctly. The Falcons put up a good fight against the Bucs until two pick sixes late took the game away from them. This week they face a Giants team coming off it’s best outing offensively for a while in a heart-breaking loss to a division rival. How do they bounce back? There are no excuses here for Daniel Jones not to follow up on a very good performance, or for the Giants running game not to find traction against a porous Falcons D. The Falcons have allowed a league leading 8 passing TDs through 2 weeks. So why am I picking the Falcons? Probably because we are about ready to write them off this season, and that is when they do a number on me…. I actually think there is too much talent offensively not to keep this game close. In close games the Giants turnover worries often prove to be the deciding factor. Until Jones can prove he can consistently avoid the killer turnovers with a string of low turnover games it is equally as hard to pick the Giants against teams with talent.

Chargers 31 Chiefs 35

Spread: Chiefs -7.0

Pick confidence: 65%

Shootout of the week? Nothing we have seen from the Chiefs D suggests that Justin Herbert and the Chargers won’t have their way with them for the most part. Can Herbert outduel Mahomes? I’m not going to back it until I’ve seen it, Mahomes has earned that. There are glimmers of hope for the Chargers, the one person to keep Travis Kelce in check in recent years? Derwin James. If he can lock down Kelce like he has previously then another Chief will have to step up. Can the likes of Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle make those third down plays Kelce does so routinely? Expect Ekeler to have success against the Chiefs and for the Chargers to succeed with a balanced attack. I’m calling 2 Mike Williams TDs in this one. The Chiefs have put up 27 and 35 points in the last two weeks against decent defenses so we know they will score. I think this game will be closer than the spread but ultimately I’m going to back Mahomes in this matchup, unless Herbert decides to go for 107 and 2 scores on the ground…

Bengals 20 Steelers 21

Spread: Steelers -3.0

Pick confidence: 55%

What Steeler’s offense will show up? The one where all the talent comes together and actually moves the ball? The one where more than 1 deep shot lands per game? We know what we will get from the Pittsburgh D and this will be a second tough out for Burrow and the Bengals after running into a Bears D that came to play in the second half last week, including 3 picks thrown by Burrow in 3 throws! How will the young passer bounce back against a better overall unit, even with Watt out? I don’t think we will see as many turnovers but I can’t see the Bengals going much over 20 in this game. It will then be up to the Steelers to put up 20+ to see this game out. I figure they get it done this week and hold on in the 3 horse race for the AFC North. I don’t see them staying in that race over the course of the season, at least based on what we have seen to date. The Bengals D has been friskier than most predicted, especially with Hendrickson improving the Bengals pass rush, and so it will present challenges for Big Ben. The Bengals stout run defense will likely see that this is not the Najee Harris breakout week. I think Ben does enough to get this done but this should be a tight defensive game, and in all honesty could go either way.

Bears 17 Browns 27

Spread: Browns -7.0

Pick confidence: 80%

The Bears turned the Bengals over 4 times in the second half last week, including a pick-six, and won the game by 3 points. Other than a touchdown on the first drive of the game the Bears offense contributed 2 field goals. The first after a Tee Higgins fumble at midfield and the second on a 4 play drive covering a whopping 5 yards after the third Burrow interception. Each team has 2 units and either unit winning the game for the team counts as a W, but this Bears offense is not firing and is not a unit I trust to keep them in games against top caliber opposition. Regardless of who is playing QB right now. The Browns on the other hand are playing well, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The game plan is sound, a heavy dose of Chubb and Hunt then let Mayfield carve up undermanned secondaries. It will help that the Browns get OBJ back this week, given Landry is not available. I’m confident the Browns take this one, will the Bears D play well enough to be able to cover the spread, they will need turnovers and I’m not sure this is the week they will come.

Ravens 33 Lions 24

Spread: Ravens -7.5

Pick confidence: 90%

Was last week the start of the Lamar Jackson MVP round 2 campaign? You cannot be anything other than amazed by the man when he does what he did to the Chiefs. The concern, 2 picks, one pick-six. I said in my season preview that deja-vu will be the story for the Ravens this year. Dominate the regular season with plenty of Lamar performances like we saw last week but ultimately come unstuck against a top tier opponent when the run game won’t be enough to play catch up. Although seeing Jackson and Henry do their thing last week may just change someone’s mind. The way to get at this Lions team is generally through the air, 6 scores through 2 weeks. The run D is stouter but to be honest I think that goes out the window against the Ravens, this is not a traditional rushing attack. The Ravens will eat up the yards on the ground but I think we start to see a bit more from the aerial attack in the next couple of weeks. Andrews and Watkins to each score would not be a surprise to me from what I have seen of the targets through 2 weeks. The Lions have sported a pretty balanced attack so far this year with success both through the air and on the ground. They have not had an easy start to the year with the 49ers and Packers in the first two weeks of the season. I fear we won’t learn too much more about the Lions again this week. We know they won’t challenge the 3 teams they’ve played so far this year, how will they fair against teams that are not supposed to be postseason locks? We should see some success against this Ravens unit but they just do not have the horses in this race. The fact that Baltimore has given up 33 and 35 so far this season gives me pause on taking the spread here, the teams putting up those points were the Raiders and Chiefs though. If the Ravens keep the foot on the gas then they should be able to cover the spread.

Saints 17 Patriots 20

Spread: Patriots -3.0

Pick confidence: 60%

Alvin Kamara 8 carries for 5 yards? C’mon. The Saints possessions against Carolina: Punt, Punt, Punt, INT, Punt, Downs, Punt, TD, Punt, Downs, INT. Wow. Next up a Patriots team that is pretty stingy on defense and has only allowed 23 points in the first two weeks of the season. OK, Jets, I get your point. One thing you can guarantee is that Belichick and co will have a plan for Jameis Winston. He has been turnover prone in his career and if anyone can exploit that it will be Bill Belichick. That means the best way for the Saints to walk out of this with a W is for them to go early and often to their star man Kamara. Anything like the first line of this blurb and we know who won this game. You have to figure we won’t see the week 1 Saints, but you also have to figure we won’t see the week 2 Saints again either. Somewhere in the middle will mean this is a closely fought contest. Mac Jones has acquitted himself well so far this season. He is playing the part he is being asked to, the Patriots MO. I do struggle to see where the points are coming from with this Patriots team. I figure in this one a defensive touchdown breaks the Saints, Jones and co then do enough to edge a tight one.

 Cardinals 31 Jaguars 21

Spread: Cardinals -7.5

Pick confidence: 95%

Trevor Lawrence is having to play from behind every week, the recipe for a rookie QB to go 4 TD 5 INT in the first 2 weeks. Given the prowess of the Cards offense you can only imagine a similar game script this week. For me this is an easy pick, it has my highest pick confidence that I will ever give, there is just a mismatch of talent here. The Cards D has given up yards and points so I’m sure the Jags will be able to move the ball enough to put up a couple of scores but it will not be enough to keep this game close. I expect Arizona to look at Chase Edmonds and Rondale Moore to get those guys going and part of the offense going forward, this looks to be a good game to do that. See my daily fantasy line-up! I figure Murray gets to hand the ball of a little more in the second half here as they protect him for bigger games to come. The Cards D might be a good play in daily fantasy or as a spot start, the game narrative lends itself to a few desperation INTs from Lawrence. The spread is no brainer for me here.

Washington 17 Bills 28

Spread: Bills -7.0

Pick confidence: 85%

You may have expected the Washington defense to be the best defensive unit in this game, it is not. The Bills have much improved and are getting great play from some young pass rushers and a big jump in performance from linebackers like Matt Milano. Expect this unit to come out pumped after bageling the Dolphins last weekend. Taylor Heinicke has played well but will have a tough time moving the ball consistently against this Bills team and therefore I see 20 points as the absolute ceiling here. The Bills offense still doesn’t look like it is clicking fully but Diggs got more action last week and that should continue to increase as this unit sorts itself out. I don’t see some of the fireworks we were expecting from them just yet but they will do more than enough to see off this Washington team. I have high confidence in this pick but the Bills offense is yet to show consistency so the spread could be tight and I’m less confident in that regard. The Bills are starting to run the ball  better, that may well open up the windows for Josh Allen to find his rhythm.

Jets 13 Broncos 23

Spread: Broncos -10.0

Pick confidence: 80%

The Panthers, Patriots and Broncos defenses represent a pretty tough opening slate for a rookie QB without much skill position support. I think we see another struggle for Wilson this week, maybe not to the tune of 4 INTs, but certainly struggles to move the ball and likely a couple of miscues. On the other side it was great to see Courtland Sutton come back with a bang (yeah he is on my fantasy team..) after missing time just as he was hitting his stride. The Broncos offense has moved the ball nicely under Teddy Bridgewater but this Jets defense is stout, only giving up an average of 22 points per game over the first two weeks. When you consider that includes defending field position that comes with 5 INTs from the offense we should look at this unit as a much improved one. I see this being a low scoring game, one in which the Broncos are not really under threat and ultimately run out comfortable winners. 10 points is a lot to spot any NFL team in terms of the spread, especially in what looks to be a low scoring game, I do have the margin exactly at the spread but 10+ point spreads should always come with some nervousness.

Dolphins 20 Raiders 26

Spread: Raiders -3.5

Pick confidence: 65%

Consider the relatively close scoreline and lower pick confidence here a nod to Brian Flores and the kind of coach he is. If anyone will get this Dolphins team to bounce back and play with pride then it is him. Ultimately though, the Raiders are the superior team here. Miami’s line is allowing far too much pressure on whoever is playing QB, 8 sacks in the first two weeks tells a large part of the story but there is rarely time to go through reads and find open receivers even when the sacks don’t rack up. This leads to a lot of short passes to backs and receivers, relying on YAC to generate offense. In comes a Raiders pass rush led by Maxx Crosby that has been brilliant through the first two weeks, that likely continues here and will be the determining factor in this game. Miami’s top flight corners will matchup and compete well against Waller and Ruggs and should keep this game closer than records and recent performances would suggest. Miami has a knack of making predictions look a little silly under Brian Flores so while my head tells me this should be a comfortable Raiders win and to take the spread here, my gut tells me it won’t be as easy an out as it should be.

Seahwaks 31 Vikings 30

Spread: Seahawks -2.5

Pick confidence: 51%

Game of the week potential right here. Kirk Cousins has been, again, quietly playing really good football. I would expect that to continue here but it should be in a supporting role to Dalvin Cook (or Mattison if Cook does not go) as run defense has been a problem for the Seahawks to the tune of 325 yard and 3 scores over the first 2 weeks. The Vikings haven’t faired too much better giving up yards on both the ground and through the air. We can expect the Seahawks to put up points and so it will be on the Vikings offense to go out and win this game for them. A heavy dose of Cook and some play action will provide success for this team, I think this is the week Justin Jefferson reminds us just how special a player he is. The Seahawks perennial offensive line problems don’t seem to have abated, even given the effort put in to do so. It has not stopped this offense scoring points but it always opens up the opportunity for the opposition to make splash plays when the game is on the line.

With Cook out, I've changed my pick so the Seahawks nick the W.

Buccaneers 27 Rams 24

Spread: Buccaneers -1.5

Pick confidence: 55%

On paper this is the game of the week. You could make an argument that it is the two best teams in the NFL going head to head here. The biggest question mark for me is the Bucs D in this game. They have given up plenty of yards and points over the last 2 games, averaging 27 per contest. The question being is that a result of game script, or a bigger issue? If the game is tight, which this one should be, will that lead to better stats for this defense? Matt Stafford and the Rams will certainly give us some clarity on that. I expect Cooper Kupp to go off again in this one. Will the rest of the Rams offense step up and help out enough to overcome a sizzling Bucs offense? I don’t think so. I’m going to go with the Bucs, they can seemingly move the ball at will whereas I’m not seeing exactly that from the Rams. Brady can change up who is the number 1 guy week on week, Evans last week, Brown the week before, there are too many weapons for Ramsey to take out of the game. This should be a very close affair but I trust Brady and the Bucs offense over the Rams right now. How many games are won by 1 point? Not many, although a couple already this year, so if you fancy the Bucs then take the spread.

Packers 30 49ers 27

Spread: 49ers -3.0

Pick confidence: 55%

Call this one a gut feel. Rodgers and co bounced back last week, albeit against the Lions, while there appeared to be regression in the 49ers offense with Jimmy G struggling. We have not seen the same type of play from the likes of Kittle and Aiyuk that we have grown accustomed to so far this year. The run game will be strong and will prove a challenge for A Packers defense that appears to be figuring new schemes out on the fly. The 49ers defense played well against a good Eagles unit last weekend but did also allow the Lions to claw themselves back into the game in week 1. I’m going to go with the offense trending in the right direction, yes offensive line issues for the Packers are a concern but I think Rodgers continues to get back on track here. The 49ers are thin at running back, again. How many times can Shanahan go to the well and have success? A close game and in truth could go either way but I’m siding with the Pack.

Eagles 23 Cowboys 28

Spread: Cowboys -3.5

Pick confidence: 65%

Another game with great potential here. I can’t figure out whether this is a lower scoring contest with running games taking over or a shootout with a bit of run and aerial explosiveness. Hurts has run well but has not yet consistently got his receivers into the game. This may be the week to do so as the Cowboys offense looks primed to be a consistently high scoring unit. Last week, in a relatively low scoring affair the Cowboys rushed for 180 yards, with Tony Pollard looking like the best back in the Dallas backfield. The Eagles can be run on and it would make sense for Dallas’ game plan to target that. Too much for Dak to do and the Eagles front might make life difficult for him. The best way to keep that in check is to run the ball, Dak’s chances will then come on play action. For the Eagles to win this game they need to have more success through the air against someone who is not the Falcons. DeVonta Smith has had this offense built around his skill set and he is going to have to step up and lead it, if he can then it will open up the offense for the two talented tight ends to go to work, giving Hurts some easier reads and simpler throws. I like what I saw from the Cowboys last week and think that is set to continue so am going for a Dallas win here. It should be close so I don’t have huge confidence in the spread.

[nflweeklyuk]

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Ok so week 1 was pretty much the worst day I’ve had at this with at 50% (70% generally!).

I’ve added back Pick confidence to the predictions below which, as it says, shows my conviction in the pick. Anything 70% and above and I am pretty confident.

Washington 20 Giants 16

Spread: Washington -3

Pick confidence: 65%

Washington, without Fitzpatrick for the foreseeable future, only narrowly lost out to the Chargers on Sunday with Taylor Heinicke under center for a large part. The win came down to Justin Herbert who made 3 completions of more than 15 yards on 3rd down. Who has the confidence that Daniel Jones can do the same? I do not. The Washington defense lead by Chase Young, should do enough to make sure the offense can stumble through this one. If ever there was a quarterback to get after and generate turnovers then it is Jones. In 28 games he has put the ball on the ground 30 times, losing 18 of those, including one that effectively ended the Giants hopes last weekend. Not to mention 22 interceptions. This has the potential to get ugly. The Giants will view this as one of the more winnable games on their schedule, and if they don’t turn the ball over then they certainly have a chance. Barkley needs to get going yesterday to relieve the pressure on Jones and be the dual threat we know he can be. Coming of limited snaps in week 1 that might be a lot to ask this early in the season. I’m banking on a defensive TD from Washington in this one. Fantasy starts on a Thursday can be dicey but I would have confidence in the Washington D.

Steelers 26 Raiders 23

Spread: Steelers -6

Pick confidence: 60%

I was sooooo close to picking the Steelers last weekend. I wasn’t bought in to the overblown stories of their demise given they have a great defense, good skill position players and veteran Superbowl winning QB. That was all mostly on display last Sunday, although it did take the offense until the second half to warm up. The Steeler’s D did a number on Josh Allen and the much hyped Bills offense, we might just see how good that performance was when Allen and Co light up opposition in the coming weeks. It doesn’t bode well for a Raiders team that thrive on deep shots, and lots of them (19 targets in week 1!), to Darren Waller, the Steeler’s secondary, with Fitzpatrick over the middle, will not allow so many shots to land. For the Raiders to win this one the pass rush that showed plenty of life with Maxx Crosby will need to get pressure on Big Ben. On the flip side, Pittsburgh needs to get more out of the run game, it was their biggest failing last year and only racking up 75 yards on the ground in week 1 didn’t suggest a huge improvement. In the end I think the Steeler’s D is the difference making unit in this matchup. I’m not sure the offense is yet in the kind of form that will cover the spread here though.

Eagles 24 49ers 27

Spread: 49ers -3

Pick confidence: 60%

This is a hard matchup to predict. Surprisingly Jimmy G and the 9ers had the highest yards per pass attempt at 12.3 in week 1. The Eagles allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt at 4.7. The Eagles did give up 124 on the ground to an Atlanta team who does not rack up rushing yards as a habit. The 49ers however do love to run the ball and always find creative ways to do so, regardless of who is running the football. Eli Mitchell anyone? Yeah I picked him up on waivers, and of course Hasty is going to start, typical. The 9ers gave up a lot of yards to Detroit but that was a lot to do with running up a huge lead. Goff threw the ball 58 times! This was at a clip of 5.9 yards per attempt. If you have a team in desperation mode from before the half you are going to give up yards, and points, at the NFL level. The loss of Jason Verrett is a massive blow for this 49ers secondary and has impacted the above prediction to make a closer game. The ground game should be the strength of this Eagles team though and the 9ers will need to play better on the defensive line than they did a week ago. In match ups this close I tend to look at QBs and strengths/weaknesses. The 9ers look to be able to run on the Eagles, allowing them to execute their game plan. The Eagles will also have a run first game plan that should provide results in this game too, it then comes down to which passer is best placed to take advantage of the run game? I’m rooting for Hurts to become the unquestioned QB1 of this Eagles team for the foreseeable but with up and down tape from last year I have to go with the more seasoned QB until the consistent performances come. This game could go either way quite easily, if Hurts performs like he did last week then Eagles likely win this game given the injuries hitting the 9ers.

Browns 30 Texans 17

Spread: Browns -13

Pick confidence: 95%

The Texans may have been the biggest surprise package of week 1, perhaps not because they beat the Jags but by the fact they did so putting up points on offense and creating turnovers on defense. I wouldn’t get carried away thinking the Texans are going to be a season long surprise package, most teams are not the Jags. We will see exactly how bad the Jags are in the coming weeks. This Browns team is on the opposite end of the spectrum to the Jags, they gave the Superbowl favourites all they could handle without taking the win in week 1. I think the Texans come back down to earth this week, they have an offense that’s ceiling is as high as Tyrod Taylor’s talent can go and a defense that is likely mediocre at best. The likelihood is this squad will struggle to win 5 games, at a stretch. The Browns have far too much talent in this matchup, on both sides of the ball so not one to overthink. The Texans still gave up 319 yards and 3 TDs to a rookie so you would expect Baker Mayfield to take advantage of this defense, especially after a heavy dose of Chubb and Hunt.

Jaguars 13 Broncos 24

Spread: Broncos -5.5

Pick confidence: 60%

The Jags really staked their claim early for the worst record in football. The defense let Tyrod Taylor go off for 291 passing yards, his best near full season as starter saw him average 217 per game. The Jags also gave up 160 on the ground to a group of running backs, albeit with talent, but who have bounced from team to team and could at this point be considered journeymen. This is not a good look, nor is 4 turnovers on offense. This is the kind of outing that rings 0-17 alarm bells. The Jags have to protect the ball to give their defense a fighting chance, running the ball effectively has never been more important for this team. The Broncos only gave 60 on the ground to the Giants in week 1 so will not be the easiest unit to get the ground game going against. If the Jags have to rely on Trevor Lawrence to win games this early in the season it will inevitably end with an L. The Broncos were efficient under Teddy Bridgewater on offense and I expect similar this week, even against a bad Jags defense I don’t expect the Broncos to light it up. I do expect them to methodically pick apart this unit and consistently put points up on the board. Look for Courtland Sutton to pick up the targets vacated by Jeudy’s absence as he works back from injury. Again, one not to overthink until the Jags show us a reason to consider otherwise

Panthers 20 Saints 28

Spread: Saints -3.5

Pick confidence: 80%

The Saints managed to do something that Jameis Winston has not seen in his years as a starter, a team that can pound the rock. Not necessarily in the conventional, Derrick Henry sense though. The Saints racked up 171 yards on the ground, putting Winston in the position to pick apart a Packers defense that was forced to consider him the number two threat. This type of attack will nullify the strength of the Panthers D. As impressive as the win was the Saints came out of it seriously beat up, especially on defense. The loss of star cornerback Marshon Lattimore and edge rusher Marcus Davenport will take some teeth out of this unit. For this week at least I think the Saints can survive those losses against the Panthers, while Christian McCaffrey will no doubt keep the Panthers chains moving I am not convinced Darnold is yet the one to cap drives with scores regularly enough to outpace this Saints offense. The Saints were clinical offensively against the Packers but the Panthers were not against the Jets. I know which one is more impressive. I like the spread here, although the defensive losses for the Saints make me slightly more nervous. Kamara and McCaffrey going head to head should be great.

Colts 17 Rams 27

Spread: Rams -3.5

Pick confidence: 85%

I actually do not see this game being as close as my prediction suggests, and yes it is not that close anyway. Give the Colts some 4th quarter points to make this score more respectable while the Rams take their foot of the gas. I am VERY high on this Rams team since the acquisition of Matthew Stafford, see my division previews for the season. Nothing that happened in week 1 did anything to shake that confidence. Stafford easily put up 321 yards passing and 3 TDs in a game that was not close in the second half. This week he faces a Colts secondary that just allowed 4 TDs and 11 yards per attempt to Russel Wilson and the Seahawks. Throw in 140 yards on the ground and you can only see the Rams replicating that kind of production against this Colts D. On the other side of the ball, a questionable Colts O-line will have it’s hands full with this Rams front lead by Aaron Donald. His quiet week 1 stats sheet does not tell the story of the tape, he was a force as always. Wentz was surprisingly spry in last weeks opener, he may need to be in this one if the Colts are going to make this competitive. I don’t know that the Colts have the weapons on the outside to threaten Ramsey and co in this matchup. Yes Zach Pascal hauled in 2 TDs but this Rams outfit is not the Seahawks. It would not surprise me if this is the game we see flashbacks of bad Carson Wentz, likely he will need to force plays to stay in the game, or hold the ball too long, either way turnovers likely follow. The spread in this one is one I am taking ALL day long.

Dolphins 20 Bills 23

Spread: Bills -3.5

Pick confidence: 70%

As a Dolphins fan I am still surprised when we win games at the moment. The team has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball with a ball-hawking defense led by Xavien Howard and a set of skill position players in Waddle, Parker, Gesicki and Gaskin that should cause plenty of problems to opposing defenses. That really leaves just quarterback as the reason for my surprise, I don’t feel confident that we can march down the field and score. We need to rely on field position and short fields to overcome limited play from the games most important position. I imagine this is what Bills felt during Allen’s first two seasons! Need to see more from Tua before I pick with him against top tier opposition. The Bill struggled mightily last week, but if they can lean on the run game here, an area the Patriots had success then they should be able to put enough points on this defense to see this one out. Singletary might be the difference maker in this game, with some Josh Allen lasers mixed in.

Jets 10 Patriots 26

Spread: Patriots -6.5

Pick confidence: 90%

I found the Dolphins game a very strange game to watch as a long time Dolphins fan. It was like watching the Patriots you grew to despise and respect at the same time. The 2nd and 6 you knew one way or another would be converted, whether it was in one 7 yard play or two 3 and 4 yard plays. The defense allowed you to move the ball but suddenly stiffened once it came time to put the points on the board. Then the Patriots lost. The matriculating offense and bend but don’t break defense that served the organisation so well seemed to be there but without it’s teeth. Mac Jones is not Tom Brady, and I don’t think anyone is confusing the two, but the game plan is similar, the pieces have changed and in time I fear the Patriots machine will resurface. It didn’t last weekend, uncharacteristic fumbles and miscues costing the W. The Fins are a different proposition to the Jets though. A gun shy Tua is one thing, a not gun shy Wilson may fall prey to the Belichick treatment that had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts. This feels like a game where the Patriots D does the work and the offense does it’s thing without needing fireworks. I expect turnovers from this Patriots defense, going on a limb I’m going to call a defensive score here. I haven’t spoken much about the Jets but until they provide any meaningful support to their starting quarterback, on offense or defense it feels a little pointless.

Bears 23 Bengals 24

Spread: Bears -2

Pick confidence: 51%

This is a tough one to call. The Bengals barely overcame a Vikings squad that did not bring it’s A game. The ears hung with the Rams for a half then were put away with some ease after that. An Andy Dalton led offense these days has a ceiling, and not a high one. The sooner the keys are handed to Justin Fields, the sooner the Bears become a much more interesting proposition, with a higher ceiling. The Bengals offense will continue to press all game, and with the balance they showed last week should be able to take advantage of this Bears defense enough times to ensure that Bears ceiling is not a problem. The concern here is the Bears front vs the Bengals offensive line. If the offensive line holds up then the Bengals have more talent on offense to take this matchup vs a Dalton led Bears team. How long will the Dalton rope be though? In truth this game could go either way and may be determined by in game changes, Fields, or individual performances, Khalil Mack? My prediction reflects the ceiling imposed on this Bears team by the coaching staff.

Buccaneers 42 Falcons 24

Spread: Buccaneers -12.5

Pick confidence: 95%

The first 40 point prediction of the year! There don’t tend to be many. Seeing what the Eagles did to this Falcons defense must have Brady chomping at the bit to get out there on Sunday. The Bucs offense looked sharp against the Cowboys with Antonio Brown looking like the guy who dominated the league for so long, and Gronk balling out like he was in his prime. Those two accounted for 3 scores and they are not even in the top two weapons on this team. Likely Brady gets all day to pick apart this Falcons secondary given the D-line are not likely to generate pressure, move Brady off the spot or force the ball out off schedule. This game basically has the highest pick confidence I will give, I’m still a believer that this Falcons offense will score plenty of points over the course of the year, even after they shat the bed in week 1. I wouldn’t even rule out a high scoring game that puts the spread in jeopardy. There just is not enough defensively for the Falcons for me to make a case that this game is anything other than a comfortable Bucs win.

Cardinals 30 Vikings 20

Spread: Cardinals -3.5

Pick confidence: 75%

Ah the Cardinals. I said in last weeks picks that a Cards win would be no surprise over a favoured Titans team, based on pure talent alone. I do still want to see consistency from Arizona but on gut feel watching the game last weekend I think this team is here to compete consistently this year. Murray won’t account for 5 TDs every week, nor will Chandler Jones account for 5 sacks every week, but those are both examples of exceptional production and the upper limits for this team. DeAndre Hopkins statistically took the second half off last week, a good sign for the team if not for fantasy owners as Murray spread the ball around and warmed up the other weapons this team has. I’m not sure the dizzying heights of last week are in store but this offense will be productive against a fairly good Vikings defensive unit. On the other side, the Vikings sputtering offense will find it’s feet with too much talent not to. It may not be this week against a team who can pressure the QB and tackle well on the back end. A defensive score for the Cardinals would not surprise me in this one, I feel confident about the spread in the Cardinals favour here. My pick confidence would be higher if I still didn’t have the nagging consistency worry around this Cardinals team. The Lions, they lost to the Lions in week 2 last year.

Seahawks 27 Titans 24

Spread: Seahawks -6

Pick confidence: 60%

Russell Wilson only attempted 23 passes in week 1, but still racked up 254 yards and 4 TDs. The ground game went off for 140 yards on 27 carries, good enough for 5.2 a carry and tied third best rate in the league. That kind of balance with Wilson’s talent and deep ball prowess is the stuff of dreams for Pete Carroll and the Seahawks fans. It also bodes well against a Titans team who could not defend either in week 1 against a mobile quarterback chucking it deep. On all evidence from last week this game should be a Seahawks win and move on. This Titans team just has too much offensive talent to be held down. Derrick Henry’s best performances often come immediately after his worst. We are talking like 200 yard performances here as well. Not suggesting that is realistic, or that I think he is going to hit that mark, but he will be better and the coaching staff will ensure he gets his opportunity. You bet Julio Jones worked out the week 1 issues and miscues this week. I expect a different Titans offense to show up. However an anaemic pass rush isn’t going to get it done against Russell Wilson, who even after taking 3 sacks in week 1 on 23 attempts will have enough time to do damage. The improved Seahawks defense looks more equipped to put Tannehill under duress and force a mistake that might just be the difference in this game. Like the spread here, not often you will get a shot at Tennessee +6, against a team that generally lives in the realm of dramatic finishes.

Chargers 28 Cowboys 31

Spread: Chargers -3.5

Pick confidence: 51%

This pick is honestly more a gut feel pick than it is based on anything tangible. As noted above the Chargers win came down to Justin Herbert who made 3 completions of more than 15 yards on 3rd down in crucial spots in the game. That was against a Washington D led by Chase Young and a talented group of pass rushers. The Cowboys just lost Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory for this game (and more in the case of Lawrence) so where will the pressure on Herbert come from? Trevon Diggs played well against Mike Evans last week and may stymie some of the Chargers wideouts but he won’t cover Keenan Allen on third down. Can anyone? Th LA defense is stout and looked good last week, but the Bucs D is stout and Dak pretty much had his way there. This may be a bit of a shootout and with nothing but a feeling this falls to the Cowboys I’ll not linger here any longer before I change to the more sensible pick…..

Ravens 24 Chiefs 30

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Pick confidence: 75%

There are two great QB talents taking the field here on Sunday, but for me there is a chasm between them. Mahomes is a generational talent at the position, very much a player able to play from the pocket but with a possibly unseen before talent to play from just about anywhere else a QB can find themselves. The wow moments never stop coming and with one Superbowl ring under his belt already no one is betting against there being more. Jackson on the other hand, is not your prototypical QB and his strength lies in his legs, speed and athleticism. He can play from the pocket but is not in the same league in that regard as Mahomes. For me the difference always plays out in these big games, and as you have seen in Raven’s playoff games with Jackson. The number of QBs who’s strength lies in their running ability, who have chalked up a Superbowl win in the era of ultra athletic, dual threat QBs is none. QB mastery from the pocket still rules. I actually really like Jackson and he alone almost swayed me from the above belief last season as I almost bought in to a Ravens playoff run going into the business end of the season. The Ravens D let the Raiders skill position players go wild after starting strong. This is a different set of skill position players on the Chiefs team, a better set so I don’t see the Ravens slowing the Chiefs enough to allow Jackson and a sputtering supporting run game to take over this matchup.

Packers 35 Lions 24

Spread: Packers -11.5

Pick confidence: 60%

The Lions D may just be the salve Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense need after the disastrous showing last weekend. The 9ers racked up 40+ points on this unit which won’t present as tougher opposition as the Saints. Look for Rodgers to go to Davante Adams early and often to build rhythm and momentum. I’m saying Rodgers 4 TDs, Adams hauls in 2 of them. The Lions may find themselves in a similar situation to last weekend, playing from behind. I can’t imagine the same kind of fireworks two weeks in a row though. I expect an improved performance from the Packers D, it is not asking much, I also don’t think it will be great but the Lions will have to go for TDs to stay in this game and so some points may be left out on the field. It was hard to evaluate the Lions offense given the game script that played out, we may be saying the same thing next week.

[nflweeklyuk]

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Buccaneers 31  Cowboys 27

Spread: Buccaneers -7.5

Opening night! The spread has Bucs by 7.5 but I can see this one being closer than the spread suggests. The Cowboys were electric on offense before Dak went down last year, and the defense improved as the season went on. Expect offensive continuity with the Bucs bringing back all starters on offense, we know that they will put points on the board and I do see them winning this game but I would not be surprised if it is a close run thing.

Texans 13 Jaguars 20

Spread: Jaguars -2.5

This game has little intrigue outside of Trevor Lawrence making his NFL debut after being drafted No 1 Earlier this year. The strength of Jacksonville’s weak team was the running game behind James Robinson last year, with a rookie QB expect the Jags to lean heavily on the run game in this one. Given the Texans offense looks to be completely anemic without Watson at the controls, and the porous D not improving greatly this offseason, I expect a conservative Jags effort to be enough to edge this one in a relatively low scoring contest.

Washington 20 Chargers 23

Spread: Washington -1.5

Tough game to pick. Can Fitzmagic channel early 2020 form in a new system? Can the Chargers o-line handle Chase Young and Montez Sweat? My feeling is that the latter question is the key to the game here. If the perennially shaky Chargers o-line can, then I think the Chargers have more all round talent, and a more consistent quarterback. The FT has a lot to like on offense with Antonio Gibson looking like a great prospect towards the end of last year and Logan Thomas providing a great alternative outlet to the prolific Terry McLaurin. My gut tells me that the Chargers take this one, primarily because I believe it will take the FT offense some time to settle into a rhythm this season

Lions 13 49ers 28

Spread: 49ers -7.5

The 49ers are a very talented squad, and for the first time in a while, a healthy squad. I see them beating the Lions comfortably here but the 49ers should be primed for a playoff run this season. I don’t think the we will be seeing many last gasp Lions comebacks now that Matt Stafford has left, to compete this year the Lions need way more balance between offense and defense as the ceiling is lower for this offense with Goff under center. The 49ers are a step too far for a rebuilding (always?) Lions squad. Expect the 49ers to pound Detroit on the ground, asking little of the QB other than to sink a few George Kittle layups every now and then.

Panthers 23 Jets 17

Spread: Panthers -5.5

The Sam Darnold revenge game! I’m not sold on Darnold as a starter but he has the chance to prove doubters wrong this year, working with a much more rounded offense (McCaffrey, Moore, Anderson etc.) and a D that should be solid if not surprising. That is a stark contrast to his supporting cast in New Jersey. The Jets have their new hope in a talented, but raw, Zach Wilson. The supporting cast is improved but is yet to instil any sense of fear into opponents. Expect struggles for the rookie QB, and therefore the offense early this season, including in this contest. Panthers win and Darnold gets some measure of revenge. It is still the Jets though.

Colts 20 Seahawks 24

Spread: Seahawks -2.5

Early is going to be the best time to play the Colts. Wentz is trending towards starting Sunday which gives the Colts a chance, but without a full preseason it is going to be difficult to hit the ground running. Running is how the Colts can keep this close though. If Jonathan Taylor can pick up where he left off and get some support from Marlon Mack and Nyeim Hines then the Colts can look to control the ball and limit Russell Wilson’s possessions. Wilson however should be able to hit the ground running with his familiar core of pass catchers (Metcalf, Lockett and co) and so should be able to make enough plays against this talented, young, Colts defense to take advantage of any rust/lack of familiarity on display for the Colts.

Falcons 27 Eagles 21

Spread: Falcons -3.0

A matchup of my nemesis teams in recent years. Just when you think the Falcons have found it, they lose a slam dunk. The Eagles present a similar problem. We know that a Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley led offense will put up points. Throw in a crazy talented Kyle Pitts and this offense should be a challenge for any squad. The worry is that the D shapes up to not be a challenge for any other squad. The Eagles will go however Jaelen Hurts goes, based on last years mixed bag I would expect the Eagles to pinch a few games they shouldn’t, and lose some they should win. I’m going to go with the Falcons here as they should have the continuity on offense to hit their stride early. The Eagles best bet is to let Miles Sanders take over this game.

Bills 24 Steelers 21

Spread: Bills -6.5

If Big Ben can come out the gates at 100% this has the makings of a great game. Can the Steelers get enough pressure on Josh Allen having lost some pass rush in the offseason? What Bills D will we get? Josh Allen in primed for big things this season and I fully expect him to deliver. This is a tough matchup against a pretty good Steelers defensive unit. If Allen has time I think the Bills will win with a measure of comfort. If not then it opens the door for the Steelers offense to find some rhythm and pull off an early upset. Some semblance of a ground game outside of Allen would sure help them in this contest. A large part of me wants to call the upset here…. But continuity often helps early in the season and I think the Bills are the team bringing the most here. Don’t right off Roethlisberger, who has proven his gunslinging nature does not necessarily require lots of practice reps to deliver, hmmmm. No, no, no I’m picking the Bills.

Bengals 24 Vikings 30

Spread: Vikings -3.5

There is a lot to be excited about for Bengals fans; Joe Burrow suiting up again after an excellent start to his rookie year was horribly cut short, Jamar Chase joining Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to form a very talented trio of wideouts (Chase’s poor preseason aside), Joe Mixon looking to bounce back and benefit from all of the above. The two concerns being the o-line and defense. Poor units which didn’t get much help this offseason, the former potentially limiting all of the positives above.

For the Vikings we know that the offense is going to put up yards and points with all the weapons on that side of the ball. Again the question is whether the D can step up and make enough stops to let the offense carry this team. Right now I think I trust the Vikings offense the most in this matchup and so I will go with them. I expect a few points on the board in this one.

Titans 28 Cardinals 27

Spread: Titans -3.0

The Cardinals were excellent out of the gate last season, only to infuriatingly lose some easier matchups in the weeks after. On his day Kyler Murray can be unplayable, if the injuries of last year are behind him then we should see the best of Murray early again this year which makes this game a tough call. Tennessee are by far the more consistent performers here and, as the spread suggests, are the more sensible pick. The Titans are not known for generating a lot of pressure which might allow them to contain Murray’s devastating runs, meaning he has to beat them with his arm. Something he has not been consistent in doing. On the other side, the Titans will run the ball with Henry and open up play action for Tannehill, Brown and Julio Jones. It’s a tried and tested formula that will net points, can the Cardinals D put up enough stops to let Murray and Hopkins go to work. The score above suggests how much of a coin flip I think this is, but I will go with the more consistent all round team in Tennessee but an Arizona win would be no surprise here.

Patriots 20 Dolphins 17

Spread: Patriots -2.5

I suffer from a not picking against Bill Belichick problem that did not serve me well last year when the Patriots went 7-9. The Patriots look to have set up in full matriculation mode this year, with the additions of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry expect a lot of long drives with quick, short passes for Mac Jones with a heavy dose of the run game. This is what Patriots teams have thrived on over the years, Mac Jones is not Tom Brady but I expect the team to be proficient in implementing this game plan. With a D that won’t give up many points I fear, as a Dolphins fan, that the Patriots will be back in the thick of the playoff hunt this year. This game plan will nullify some of the strengths of the Dolphins D, namely turnovers, and will likely not give Tua many short fields. I expect a jump in performance from Tua but I don’t thing a Belichick coached D is ideal out of the gate. Miami will be in the playoff hunt again this year but in this matchup I am going to take the Patriots at home.

Saints 20 Packers 31

Spread: Packers -4.5

I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to ball out this year, if anyone translates a chip on their shoulder to performance on the field it is him. This year he may just be carrying the biggest chip of all after the offseason dramas. I took Rodgers over Mahomes and Allen in my fantasy draft so I am fully invested in this narrative. I also got Davante Adams with the 10th pick so I am doubly invested. If the Pack stay healthy on offense then the ceiling is perhaps even higher than last year when they lead the league in scoring. The defense is perennially shaky but makes enough plays to generate possessions for the offense. The Saints sans Drew Brees look to shape up as a different team. Expect even more Alvin Kamara, not a bad thing at all, but also expect shakier QB play. Michael Thomas’ absence for at least 6 weeks leaves the receiving core thin, although Callaway and Smith have shown plenty of promise. I cannot see the Saints hanging with the Packers in this one.

Chiefs 27 Browns 20

Spread: Chiefs -5.5

A great week one matchup here. Mahomes got a lot of playing time in the offseason so expect him to come out sharp in this one. In theory the Browns have all the tools to implement the keep ball and limit possessions type of game that helps to halt prolific offenses. I’m just not sure I buy that with this Chiefs offense. Mahomes and Co have made a mockery of that too many times with quick scoring strikes that negate long drives chewing up the clock. The Browns will run the ball, and likely with success, but they will need more than that to make this game close. I’ll wait to see the Brown’s aerial offense consistently thrive before I will pick them over an AFC powerhouse. The Browns will challenge for the AFC North, and may even be favorites at this point, but I think this Chiefs team, early in the season at Arrowhead will see off the Browns. If this was December in Cleveland that might make things a little more interesting!

Rams 26 Bears 10

Spread: Rams -7.5

Matthew Stafford getting the opportunity to lead a team with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball is just one of those things that should please all people objectively. Someone who’s patience, professionalism and toughness have been shown season after season with a Detroit team who couldn’t give him the support he deserved. The talent is there and I for one am rooting for him. You cannot fault the QB on the other side of this matchup in many of the same ways, but Andy Dalton does not strike fear into the opposition and will be on a very tight leash. The supporting cast with he Bears is not as talented as the Cowboys and I for one am not sure Dalton is the one to make a team greater than the sum of it’s parts. The Rams should run the ball (I assume someone has explained what this looks like to Stafford!) to set up play action and consistently put up points with a balance offense. The Bears D will keep the score down but I don’t see the Bears offense putting up many points at all, let alone enough to make this a contest.

Raiders 17 Ravens 27

Spread: Ravens -4.0

I see a similar season ahead for the Ravens, rack up regular season wins but fail to make it deep in the playoffs. Those wins start racking up in Week 1. The Raiders were below average in stopping the run in 2020 and allowed the second most rushing TDs in the league. That bodes well for a Ravens team that lead the league in rushing while clocking up the third most rushing scores in the league. The Raiders were a top ten aerial offense last year off the back of breakouts from Darren Waller and Nelson Agholor. The former will do his thing again while the latter is over in Foxborough. For me though this game is Raiders strength vs Ravens Strength (top ten D vs the pass in both yards and scoring) while it is Ravens strength in the run game vs Raiders weakness in rush defense. There is plenty of chat about an upset here but I don’t think there is much to overthink here. Nothing I have seen in the offseason has suggested the strengths and weakness of these teams will change.

[nflweeklyuk]

NFL Divisional Preview

AFC East

The Bills figure to remain the top dog in the division this year, if not primed to establish a dominance over it. Josh Allen looked in midseason form in his preseason play. He is an ascendant talent and that should worry the other teams in the East. If the Bills can provide support in the run game this team will be a powerhouse in the AFC. An new crop of QB’s in this division should make it a fun one to watch in coming years. With a second year starter in Tua, Miami are still looking to see if he is the guy, all noises coming from South Florida are that he is the guy and we will see that this year. I hope so. The Patriots and Jets are starting rookies under centre, but in very different situations. Mac Jones will be put in positions to succeed by Belichick and McDaniels, and only asked to do the minimum required. The Patriots defence looks to follow on from an overall good showing last year where the they were top ten in passing and tied for the league lead in interception. An improvement in rushing yards allowed will see this defence provide all the support a ball control offence needs to win enough games to be in the playoff hunt. The Jets have their QB of the future but Zach Wilson is a raw talent who will likely ride the rookie rollercoaster in his first season. His supporting cast is the worst of the teams overall and the best Jets fans can hope for this season is to end the season with hope!

Projected Standings:

Bills

Patriots

Dolphins

Jets

AFC South

The two best units in this division are the Titans offense and the Colts defense. I would rate the Titans unit as the better of the two at this point, bringing back all major contributors in Henry, Brown and Tannehill provides great continuity. When you throw Julio Jones into the mix to play as the number 2 wideout on this team then you have a pretty fearsome unit. Expect Julio to take Jonnu Smith’s end zone production after the TE left for Foxborough. The young Colts D will look to build on the leaps it made last year and could turn out to be one of the best in the league. I just don’t trust the offensive side of the ball enough. What Wentz will we get? Who will emerge as his go to with Hilton’s injury worries? Michael Pittman has flashed but his overall production does not point to a number one wideout at this point.

If Watson was suiting up (terrible legal issues to one side) then the Texans would possibly challenging the Colts here. He is not, and likely won’t be for at least a meaningful chunk of the season. Outside of him the Texans roster is bare. There is not much to like, and they have just traded their starting corner away. That is the move of a team thinking full rebuild. The Jags have some hope and some intrigue at last! Trevor Lawrence makes this team relevant and more competitive. One of the top prospects in recent years has the usual number one pick pressure but after a 1-15 season any improvement in record will be considered a success.

Projected Standings:

Titans

Colts

Jags

Texans

AFC West

The Chiefs are favorites for the Superbowl, and rightly so. Therefore there is no surprise they are my pick to win the AFC West. Mahomes is an rare player and it is just great to watch him week to week. His supporting cast still includes Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce so we can probably move on! You could make an argument for any of the other three teams, in any order in this division. The Chargers have an ascendant talent at QB and some nice pieces on D. The Raiders have an underrated QB in Derek Carr and will put up points with Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs supporting him. The defense is always a question mark, and so are ALL of the high picks spent on that side of the ball by Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden. The Broncos likely have the best defensive unit in the division and will lean on that to win games. Teddy Bridgewater has made stops in several locations for a reason, he is a good but not great QB, and lets be honest Drew Lock is not the answer. If Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick can all make strides then this could be a sneaky good offense. When things are close calls I always revert back to who has the best player at the most important position. In this division they rank Herbert, Carr, Bridgewater. Behind Mahomes. Obviously.

Projected Standings:

Chiefs

Chargers

Raiders

Broncos

AFC North

This is one of the trickier divisions to predict. There are three teams that you could make a case for winning this division. The other one is the Bengals. It’s really hard not to like what the Bengals have done at the skill positions on offense. Joe Burrow looked the real deal before his injury last year, and Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon have shown how good they can all be. Throw in Ja’Marr Chase, preseason struggles aside, and you have a very talented core of players. Offensive line woes were not seriously addressed though and that will put a cap on this offense, if not stymie it completely. The defense has improved but not enough to challenge the other teams in this division.

The Ravens will look like… the Ravens, the ground game will dominate most opponents and ensure Baltimore puts up plenty of wins again. I forsee a déjà vu year for the Ravens who will make the playoffs but not go deep into the competition when they cannot keep pace with the powerhouse AFC offenses. The defense figures to be stingy again, allowing the run first offense to run over teams throughout the regular season.

The Browns were a nice surprise last year (even with the hype).  With Chubb and Hunt leading this offense and Baker Mayfield not having to play the leading role, the Browns found a great offensive rhythm. Mayfield had his own moments worthy of plenty of praise and admiration but I still don’t trust him week in week out. There is so much talent on this roster across the RBs, WRs and TEs, but outside of the RB room there has been no consistent performers. Landry has probably been the most consistent but I’m not sure there are clear roles defined, or a plan to feed all the mouths on this offense. Defensively we know Garrett is going to terrorise QBs and with a 17 game slate some records might be in danger! The Browns gave up a lot of touchdowns and yards through the air last year (although a low completion %), if they can improve that area then they may walk away with a division title.

The Steelers have some great talent on both sides of the ball. Ranking dead last in rushing through 2020, however, was very anti-Steelers. Drafting Najee Harris in the first round looks to improve the balance of this offense, but was it the backs that were the problem? Harris is an upgrade, but you do need some holes to run through. The defense boasts the highest paid defensive player, rightly so, and looks to be a turnover machine once again. Tieing for the lead league in INTs as the Steelers did last year generally helps with field position and setting up the offense in good field position. Downside? The two teams the STeelers are competing with were both top 4 in rush attempts and rushing yards last year. The Steelers led the league defensively in completion % allowed, but were middle of the pack against the ground game. There is a lot to like about the Steelers, but the teams that provide the worst match ups for them reside in their division!

I’ll take the Ravens for the division but it is a coin flip with the Browns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cleveland go deeper in the playoffs than Baltimore though.

Projected standings:

Ravens

Browns

Steelers

Bengals

NFC East

I’m rooting for the Dak Prescott of last year to be the guy we see minute one on Thursday night. It will just be great to see the guy suit up to be honest, that was a really chilling injury to see, to someone who seems a stand up guy as well. If Dak comes back in that form, or even gets there after shaking off some rust and uncertainty then I don’t have much doubt the Cowboys take this division. The defense sorted itself out to a large extent towards the end of last year and has added some nice pieces this offseason. With Lamb, Cooper and Gallup and a trim Ezekiel Elliott all returning I can only see this offense putting up big numbers. Any defensive improvement should translate to Ws, especially within the division.

Placing the rest of this division was a lot trickier. Washington have a fearsome front with Chase Young and Montez Sweat likely terrorising opponent QBs on a regular basis and the defense will be the strength of this team once again. Who doesn’t love Fitzmagic? Well, winning records don’t really unfortunately. Fitzpatrick is with his 400th team for a reason, he is a streaky QB that cannot string together consistent performances. He did a great job in Miami last year, and perhaps is having a late career settling down.. but would you really bet on that? Washington will win games based on the strength of this defense but to challenge for the division, or even the playoffs then they need a makeover in the QB room.

I bought a little too much into the Jalen Hurts early showings last year and had a flutter on the Eagles making some noise in the playoffs. Only for Hurts and the rest of the team too play a couple of duds and miss out completely. The second year pro will likely see ups and downs as any young QB does, but his athleticism and courage should provide enough spark to drive the Eagles to a middling win total, which is likely enough to slot into second in this division.

The Giants are in Daniel Jones purgatory, he has not quite done enough for the plug to get pulled but an insane number of turnovers in his first two years has to be worrying. If the G-men can get Barkley going and limit the work Jones has to do then this offense could thrive on play action with the likes of Golladay, Shephard and Slayton on the outside. The defense has a star in James Bradberry and should keep the Giants in plenty of close games, I just don’t have faith in the QB to put the Giants on the right side of them.

Projected standings

Cowboys

Eagles

Washington

Giants

NFC South

The Bucs bring back all 22 starters on offense and defense from their Superbowl triumph last year. That kind of continuity is rare and makes the Bucs perhaps a more fearsome team than that which closed the season last year so strongly. Like most, I have no real interest in discussing Tom Brady’s age, I have no doubt the first person to call time on Brady correctly will be Brady himself. Someone so in tune with their body and committed to their craft will know the time before we see any semblance of decline. Therefore the Bucs stroll this division this year, a division which sans Drew Brees leaves less talent to challenge the Bucs main area of concern, the secondary. As areas of concern go, it is not a huge concern!

Matt Ryan will be challenging that secondary with Calvin Ridley, Russel Gage and Kyle Pitts. I’m not sure there is anyone who is not excited to see the latter get on the field. Again I fear a déjà vu type year for the Falcons, yes, points will be scored, but that will be a necessity as the perennially thin defense projects to underwhelm once again. If this team could find balance on that side of the ball they would be an NFC team to watch. As it happens they will be just that, but only because they should be in a fair few shoot outs.

What will Sean Payton’s game plan be? How much trust does he have in his QBs? I would expect heavier doses of Alvin Kamara.. and Taysom Hill?.. leading to some deep shots off of play action, limiting the amount Winston (to start with) has to do on any given day. Without Michael Thomas suiting up for the first 6 weeks of the year do the Saints have enough out wide to take advantage of those deep shots? Callaway has flashed the potential, as has Tre’quan Smith, but neither have yet been consistent performers. On the other side of the ball the Saints have a strong pass rush and an improved secondary after the acquisition of Bradley Roby from the Texans. This secondary group may be a little thin and will need rookies to step up to push this defense to the next level. It was a toss up between the Falcons and Saints to take the spot behind the Bucs but again, when in doubt go with the better QB!

The Panthers round out this division, not so much because they are a last placed team, but because there are strong teams in this division. The Panthers defense has the chance to be much improved, if a Brian Burns led pass rush can maintain pressure on opposing QBs then this unit can improve from it’s middle of the pack showing last year. On the offensive side of the ball there are serious questions on the offensive line, that does not bode well for Sam Darnold. Darnold does have a much better supporting cast around him at the skill positions, and a bona fide stud in McCaffrey to be the workhorse but the jury is still out on him as a starting QB. If the offensive line can hold up we should know by the end of the year whether the Panthers have an answer at QB or whether they will be back in the market next offseason.

Projected standings:

Buccaneers

Falcons

Saints

Panthers

NFC West

Probably the most competitive division of the lot. Great, established coaches (mostly…). Talented, proven quarterbacks (mostly…) and top notch skill position players everywhere. All these teams look poised to put up plenty of point on offense, so will this division come down to who has the better defensive unit?

The Rams acquisition of Matthew Stafford is a brilliant move in my opinion. Stafford deserves a chance on a loaded team after being the ultimate competitor and teammate in Detroit, without any support from the organisation. In LA he will benefit from a team that knows how to run the ball, and play defense. The Rams offense has been hit and miss under Goff in more recent history but Stafford will bring consistency and aggression, raising the ceiling of this offense. The defense still has Aaron Donald so they will be just fine, if not a great unit. Pressure up front and lock down play in the secondary from the likes of Jalen Ramsey will mean that the Rams will limit opponents offensive production. With a solid offense with Stafford at the helm this looks to be one of the most balanced teams in the league.

The 49ers are up there with the Rams in almost all facets. They are more talented at the skill positions, certainly, with the likes of Kittle, Aiyuk and Samuel, however Garropolo is not Matt Stafford, until proven otherwise. The guy has been to the Superbowl, but he has also been underwhelming for longer than he has been good overall. Trey Lance is waiting in the wings and there will be plenty of noise if Garropolo is anything but stellar, distraction potential? The run game usually reduces the burden on the quarterback and the 9ers have some talented backs that will rotate to keep a heavy dose of the ground game going. This offense will be good, even with mediocre QB play. I’m not buying the hype of the return of the 2019 9ers just yet but they could easily win this division and be one of the best teams in the league. The defense has lost it’s spearhead in Robert Saleh, so some question marks about continuity need to be answered. There is plenty of talent there though. I have the Rams slightly ahead of the 9ers here but it could go either way.

Russell Wilson is one of my favorite players of all time, when he came out of the gates last season on a record breaking pace it looked like he was about to elevate into the very top tier of QBs. So where did the second half of the season come from?! Letting Russ cook was working beautifully, yeah the D was atrocious, winding up second in the league in air yards allowed, but it didn’t really matter all that much. Until it did. As soon as the offense’s average points per game dropped to a more middling level the Seahawks were not going to win games. We can expect Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett and co to be a dynamic offense which, in all likelihood, will not be so up and down. What can we expect from the defense? Unfortunately while offensively the Seahawks are up there with the teams above, they do not boast the same talent defensively, limiting their ability to compete for honours in this division.

A very similar story looks to play out in the desert. Arizona boast a truly talented offense that has only improved this offseason. The one question mark remaining is do they have a lead back who can carry the load and relieve pressure on Kyler Murray? I’m not sure, and I don’t think this offense will have balance. Yes the rushing numbers will be inflated by Murray himself but that will not be what is seen on field. Defensively the Cardinals have lost Patrick Peterson and will rely on younger players to step up. They will need to generate way more pressure up front to compensate for a weaker secondary. Not you Budda. There are more questions surrounding this team than any of the others in the division, so last place it is.

NFC West

Probably the most competitive division of the lot. Great, established coaches (mostly…). Talented, proven quarterbacks (mostly…) and top notch skill position players everywhere. All these teams look poised to put up plenty of point on offense, so will this division come down to who has the better defensive unit?

The Rams acquisition of Matthew Stafford is a brilliant move in my opinion. Stafford deserves a chance on a loaded team after being the ultimate competitor and teammate in Detroit, without any support from the organisation. In LA he will benefit from a team that knows how to run the ball, and play defense. The Rams offense has been hit and miss under Goff in more recent history but Stafford will bring consistency and aggression, raising the ceiling of this offense. The defense still has Aaron Donald so they will be just fine, if not a great unit. Pressure up front and lock down play in the secondary from the likes of Jalen Ramsey will mean that the Rams will limit opponents offensive production. With a solid offense with Stafford at the helm this looks to be one of the most balanced teams in the league.

The 49ers are up there with the Rams in almost all facets. They are more talented at the skill positions, certainly, with the likes of Kittle, Aiyuk and Samuel, however Garropolo is not Matt Stafford, until proven otherwise. The guy has been to the Superbowl, but he has also been underwhelming for longer than he has been good overall. Trey Lance is waiting in the wings and there will be plenty of noise if Garropolo is anything but stellar, distraction potential? The run game usually reduces the burden on the quarterback and the 9ers have some talented backs that will rotate to keep a heavy dose of the ground game going. This offense will be good, even with mediocre QB play. I’m not buying the hype of the return of the 2019 9ers just yet but they could easily win this division and be one of the best teams in the league. The defense has lost it’s spearhead in Robert Saleh, so some question marks about continuity need to be answered. There is plenty of talent there though. I have the Rams slightly ahead of the 9ers here but it could go either way.

Russell Wilson is one of my favorite players of all time, when he came out of the gates last season on a record breaking pace it looked like he was about to elevate into the very top tier of QBs. So where did the second half of the season come from?! Letting Russ cook was working beautifully, yeah the D was atrocious, winding up second in the league in air yards allowed, but it didn’t really matter all that much. Until it did. As soon as the offense’s average points per game dropped to a more middling level the Seahawks were not going to win games. We can expect Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett and co to be a dynamic offense which, in all likelihood, will not be so up and down. What can we expect from the defense? Unfortunately while offensively the Seahawks are up there with the teams above, they do not boast the same talent defensively, limiting their ability to compete for honours in this division.

A very similar story looks to play out in the desert. Arizona boast a truly talented offense that has only improved this offseason. The one question mark remaining is do they have a lead back who can carry the load and relieve pressure on Kyler Murray? I’m not sure, and I don’t think this offense will have balance. Yes the rushing numbers will be inflated by Murray himself but that will not be what is seen on field. Defensively the Cardinals have lost Patrick Peterson and will rely on younger players to step up. They will need to generate way more pressure up front to compensate for a weaker secondary. Not you Budda. There are more questions surrounding this team than any of the others in the division, so last place it is.

Projected standings:

Rams

49ers

Seahawks

Cardinals

NFC North

Aaron Rodgers with a bigger chip than usual on his shoulder, coming off an MVP year… the league should be afraid. His connection with Adams should be as strong as ever. The depth in the receiving core is a little better but I’m not sure why there is so much hype about the return or Randall Cobb, yes, there is familiarity but we have not seen the game breaking play from Cobb since he left Green Bay. Having two backs in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should mean the run game continues to be an important, and effective cog in this high power offense. I don’t see any drop off from the leagues leading scoring offense. Defensively the Pack will look to improve again this year, with a young secondary that played well last year. An easy choice to take this division.

The Vikings project to be just fine offensively, the combination of Dalvin Cook with Jefferson and Thielen on the outside will mean this offense is capable of going toe to toe with the better offenses in the league. Well, at least if you don’t watch the preseason. Defense was the problem for this team last year, the Vikings could not effectively stop the run or pass, meaning opponents could play whatever game plan they liked and have success. I would not expect a Mike Zimmer coached defense to repeat such bad stats for a second year. The additions of the likes of Patrick Peterson and Eversen Griffen, among others, should ensure that improvement is seen on the field, making this team a lot more competitive this year.

Projected standings:

Packers

Vikings

Bears

Lions