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nflweeklyuk · 3 years ago

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NFL Week 1 Predictions

Buccaneers 31 Cowboys 27

Spread: Buccaneers -7.5

Opening night! The spread has Bucs by 7.5 but I can see this one being closer than the spread suggests. The Cowboys were electric on offense before Dak went down last year, and the defense improved as the season went on. Expect offensive continuity with the Bucs bringing back all starters on offense, we know that they will put points on the board and I do see them winning this game but I would not be surprised if it is a close run thing.

Texans 13 Jaguars 20

Spread: Jaguars -2.5

This game has little intrigue outside of Trevor Lawrence making his NFL debut after being drafted No 1 Earlier this year. The strength of Jacksonville’s weak team was the running game behind James Robinson last year, with a rookie QB expect the Jags to lean heavily on the run game in this one. Given the Texans offense looks to be completely anemic without Watson at the controls, and the porous D not improving greatly this offseason, I expect a conservative Jags effort to be enough to edge this one in a relatively low scoring contest.

Washington 20 Chargers 23

Spread: Washington -1.5

Tough game to pick. Can Fitzmagic channel early 2020 form in a new system? Can the Chargers o-line handle Chase Young and Montez Sweat? My feeling is that the latter question is the key to the game here. If the perennially shaky Chargers o-line can, then I think the Chargers have more all round talent, and a more consistent quarterback. The FT has a lot to like on offense with Antonio Gibson looking like a great prospect towards the end of last year and Logan Thomas providing a great alternative outlet to the prolific Terry McLaurin. My gut tells me that the Chargers take this one, primarily because I believe it will take the FT offense some time to settle into a rhythm this season

Lions 13 49ers 28

Spread: 49ers -7.5

The 49ers are a very talented squad, and for the first time in a while, a healthy squad. I see them beating the Lions comfortably here but the 49ers should be primed for a playoff run this season. I don’t think the we will be seeing many last gasp Lions comebacks now that Matt Stafford has left, to compete this year the Lions need way more balance between offense and defense as the ceiling is lower for this offense with Goff under center. The 49ers are a step too far for a rebuilding (always?) Lions squad. Expect the 49ers to pound Detroit on the ground, asking little of the QB other than to sink a few George Kittle layups every now and then.

Panthers 23 Jets 17

Spread: Panthers -5.5

The Sam Darnold revenge game! I’m not sold on Darnold as a starter but he has the chance to prove doubters wrong this year, working with a much more rounded offense (McCaffrey, Moore, Anderson etc.) and a D that should be solid if not surprising. That is a stark contrast to his supporting cast in New Jersey. The Jets have their new hope in a talented, but raw, Zach Wilson. The supporting cast is improved but is yet to instil any sense of fear into opponents. Expect struggles for the rookie QB, and therefore the offense early this season, including in this contest. Panthers win and Darnold gets some measure of revenge. It is still the Jets though.

Colts 20 Seahawks 24

Spread: Seahawks -2.5

Early is going to be the best time to play the Colts. Wentz is trending towards starting Sunday which gives the Colts a chance, but without a full preseason it is going to be difficult to hit the ground running. Running is how the Colts can keep this close though. If Jonathan Taylor can pick up where he left off and get some support from Marlon Mack and Nyeim Hines then the Colts can look to control the ball and limit Russell Wilson’s possessions. Wilson however should be able to hit the ground running with his familiar core of pass catchers (Metcalf, Lockett and co) and so should be able to make enough plays against this talented, young, Colts defense to take advantage of any rust/lack of familiarity on display for the Colts.

Falcons 27 Eagles 21

Spread: Falcons -3.0

A matchup of my nemesis teams in recent years. Just when you think the Falcons have found it, they lose a slam dunk. The Eagles present a similar problem. We know that a Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley led offense will put up points. Throw in a crazy talented Kyle Pitts and this offense should be a challenge for any squad. The worry is that the D shapes up to not be a challenge for any other squad. The Eagles will go however Jaelen Hurts goes, based on last years mixed bag I would expect the Eagles to pinch a few games they shouldn’t, and lose some they should win. I’m going to go with the Falcons here as they should have the continuity on offense to hit their stride early. The Eagles best bet is to let Miles Sanders take over this game.

Bills 24 Steelers 21

Spread: Bills -6.5

If Big Ben can come out the gates at 100% this has the makings of a great game. Can the Steelers get enough pressure on Josh Allen having lost some pass rush in the offseason? What Bills D will we get? Josh Allen in primed for big things this season and I fully expect him to deliver. This is a tough matchup against a pretty good Steelers defensive unit. If Allen has time I think the Bills will win with a measure of comfort. If not then it opens the door for the Steelers offense to find some rhythm and pull off an early upset. Some semblance of a ground game outside of Allen would sure help them in this contest. A large part of me wants to call the upset here…. But continuity often helps early in the season and I think the Bills are the team bringing the most here. Don’t right off Roethlisberger, who has proven his gunslinging nature does not necessarily require lots of practice reps to deliver, hmmmm. No, no, no I’m picking the Bills.

Bengals 24 Vikings 30

Spread: Vikings -3.5

There is a lot to be excited about for Bengals fans; Joe Burrow suiting up again after an excellent start to his rookie year was horribly cut short, Jamar Chase joining Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to form a very talented trio of wideouts (Chase’s poor preseason aside), Joe Mixon looking to bounce back and benefit from all of the above. The two concerns being the o-line and defense. Poor units which didn’t get much help this offseason, the former potentially limiting all of the positives above.

For the Vikings we know that the offense is going to put up yards and points with all the weapons on that side of the ball. Again the question is whether the D can step up and make enough stops to let the offense carry this team. Right now I think I trust the Vikings offense the most in this matchup and so I will go with them. I expect a few points on the board in this one.

Titans 28 Cardinals 27

Spread: Titans -3.0

The Cardinals were excellent out of the gate last season, only to infuriatingly lose some easier matchups in the weeks after. On his day Kyler Murray can be unplayable, if the injuries of last year are behind him then we should see the best of Murray early again this year which makes this game a tough call. Tennessee are by far the more consistent performers here and, as the spread suggests, are the more sensible pick. The Titans are not known for generating a lot of pressure which might allow them to contain Murray’s devastating runs, meaning he has to beat them with his arm. Something he has not been consistent in doing. On the other side, the Titans will run the ball with Henry and open up play action for Tannehill, Brown and Julio Jones. It’s a tried and tested formula that will net points, can the Cardinals D put up enough stops to let Murray and Hopkins go to work. The score above suggests how much of a coin flip I think this is, but I will go with the more consistent all round team in Tennessee but an Arizona win would be no surprise here.

Patriots 20 Dolphins 17

Spread: Patriots -2.5

I suffer from a not picking against Bill Belichick problem that did not serve me well last year when the Patriots went 7-9. The Patriots look to have set up in full matriculation mode this year, with the additions of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry expect a lot of long drives with quick, short passes for Mac Jones with a heavy dose of the run game. This is what Patriots teams have thrived on over the years, Mac Jones is not Tom Brady but I expect the team to be proficient in implementing this game plan. With a D that won’t give up many points I fear, as a Dolphins fan, that the Patriots will be back in the thick of the playoff hunt this year. This game plan will nullify some of the strengths of the Dolphins D, namely turnovers, and will likely not give Tua many short fields. I expect a jump in performance from Tua but I don’t thing a Belichick coached D is ideal out of the gate. Miami will be in the playoff hunt again this year but in this matchup I am going to take the Patriots at home.

Saints 20 Packers 31

Spread: Packers -4.5

I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to ball out this year, if anyone translates a chip on their shoulder to performance on the field it is him. This year he may just be carrying the biggest chip of all after the offseason dramas. I took Rodgers over Mahomes and Allen in my fantasy draft so I am fully invested in this narrative. I also got Davante Adams with the 10th pick so I am doubly invested. If the Pack stay healthy on offense then the ceiling is perhaps even higher than last year when they lead the league in scoring. The defense is perennially shaky but makes enough plays to generate possessions for the offense. The Saints sans Drew Brees look to shape up as a different team. Expect even more Alvin Kamara, not a bad thing at all, but also expect shakier QB play. Michael Thomas’ absence for at least 6 weeks leaves the receiving core thin, although Callaway and Smith have shown plenty of promise. I cannot see the Saints hanging with the Packers in this one.

Chiefs 27 Browns 20

Spread: Chiefs -5.5

A great week one matchup here. Mahomes got a lot of playing time in the offseason so expect him to come out sharp in this one. In theory the Browns have all the tools to implement the keep ball and limit possessions type of game that helps to halt prolific offenses. I’m just not sure I buy that with this Chiefs offense. Mahomes and Co have made a mockery of that too many times with quick scoring strikes that negate long drives chewing up the clock. The Browns will run the ball, and likely with success, but they will need more than that to make this game close. I’ll wait to see the Brown’s aerial offense consistently thrive before I will pick them over an AFC powerhouse. The Browns will challenge for the AFC North, and may even be favorites at this point, but I think this Chiefs team, early in the season at Arrowhead will see off the Browns. If this was December in Cleveland that might make things a little more interesting!

Rams 26 Bears 10

Spread: Rams -7.5

Matthew Stafford getting the opportunity to lead a team with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball is just one of those things that should please all people objectively. Someone who’s patience, professionalism and toughness have been shown season after season with a Detroit team who couldn’t give him the support he deserved. The talent is there and I for one am rooting for him. You cannot fault the QB on the other side of this matchup in many of the same ways, but Andy Dalton does not strike fear into the opposition and will be on a very tight leash. The supporting cast with he Bears is not as talented as the Cowboys and I for one am not sure Dalton is the one to make a team greater than the sum of it’s parts. The Rams should run the ball (I assume someone has explained what this looks like to Stafford!) to set up play action and consistently put up points with a balance offense. The Bears D will keep the score down but I don’t see the Bears offense putting up many points at all, let alone enough to make this a contest.

Raiders 17 Ravens 27

Spread: Ravens -4.0

I see a similar season ahead for the Ravens, rack up regular season wins but fail to make it deep in the playoffs. Those wins start racking up in Week 1. The Raiders were below average in stopping the run in 2020 and allowed the second most rushing TDs in the league. That bodes well for a Ravens team that lead the league in rushing while clocking up the third most rushing scores in the league. The Raiders were a top ten aerial offense last year off the back of breakouts from Darren Waller and Nelson Agholor. The former will do his thing again while the latter is over in Foxborough. For me though this game is Raiders strength vs Ravens Strength (top ten D vs the pass in both yards and scoring) while it is Ravens strength in the run game vs Raiders weakness in rush defense. There is plenty of chat about an upset here but I don’t think there is much to overthink here. Nothing I have seen in the offseason has suggested the strengths and weakness of these teams will change.

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