#and no this downside is not a big enough problem to persuade me to show this to anyone

[aplaceforstellasscribbles]

The downside to writing something I'll never let anyone see is that no one can tell me how funny I am

[lcnque-blog]

A lot of their clients

A lot of their clients are really freaking mean for no reason. The downside to raking in that sweet cash is that a lot of people can be really mean for no reason. She says a lot of guys can't even sit there and watch her without saying mean things to her, and many of them don't tip either. Granted, that happens in minimum-wage jobs too, but I'm guessing what guys say to her is probably way worse than what people say to fast-food employees. If abuse were such a big problem, Anna says, then why would any Romanian girls bother with it at all? Why wouldn't they just find some other job? In a country whose GDP only stopped shrinking two years ago, with 20 per cent of the population living below the poverty line and personal income levels far below Kazakhstan, Iran and Gabon, that question answers itself. There's a reason Anna's so happy to be independent from her former employers, a status she equates with nothing less than her "freedom".For Lana, 31, webcamming has provided enough money for her to bring up her daughter alone, and to think about investing money in something "that will bring money to the country". She plans to give up in two years' time.Another camgirl, Heidi, 23, has bright blue hair and once sat on a kitchen bench and painted herself while more than 40 men – paying customers - tuned in to watch.

It's easy enough to read up on pointers from veterans.So as I sat there, in front of my laptop, I thought to myself, Why didnt I just respond the way that I normally do when somebody proclaims something which I dont agree with? Why didnt I just say, firmly but reasonably, you are wrong and these are the reasons why… Perhaps it was because it was so personal, that I felt like for once, I wasnt defending femininity as a whole, but just myself. Which on the surface would seem like a less daunting task, but for me it left me stumped. I knew that I was a feminist and it wasnt often that I had to justify myself to anybody. I was used to breaking down all the reasons that men used to justify their behavior.I had the opportunity to watch her cam, and I realized that she has a persona when she’s camming—in the same way that a lot of media people do. It’s not like she’s drastically different, but there’s a version of herself that she shares with people while shes at work in the same way that an actress would go on a talk show and be the sweeter, funnier, more engaged version of herself. She puts on a show, and gives her best, sexiest performance, reading what the client wants, asking questions, and taking directions. All the while, she’s sort of straddling the line between sexual partner, therapist, and moral supporter. It’s a ton of emotional labor—like any type of sex work. I think we often forget that being a sex worker is essentially working in the service industry.Inside, Studio 20 feels like the Paramount Pictures of camming. You walk in and theres hallways and hallways of rooms. One of them is decorated for a surfer girl, one of them is a girly teen-looking bedroom, one has teddy bears, one has a stripper pool, one is a fake bathroom with a tub. And theyre all just these fake sets where one side is a bedroom and the other side has a huge monitor, camera, computer, and professional lighting.

Are there misconceptions about webcamming that you want to bust?Model, producer and co-creator of YouTube channel ComeCurious, Reed is essentially the physical embodiment of sex positivity, which she defines as trying to make people feel like what theyre doing and what theyre into isnt wrong, its normal and its absolutely fine. Shes a huge advocate for removing stigma and taboos around sex, and we caught up with her to learn more about webcamming, a line of sex work that is seldom talked about. But some women are not free to make the choices Lana has. Oana, 28, counts herself as an escapee from the sex industry. At 16 - a minor - she fell in love with a boyfriend who persuaded her to do video chat.A lot of their clients are really freaking mean for no reason. The downside to raking in that sweet cash is that a lot of people can be really mean for no reason. She says a lot of guys can't even sit there and watch her without saying mean things to her, and many of them don't tip either. Granted, that happens in minimum-wage jobs too, but I'm guessing what guys say to her is probably way worse than what people say to fast-food employees. CONTINUED BELOW...

[hessafeelsfordayss]

Comparison/Theories.

So instead of focusing this post on just one person, I decided to write about Lee, Silver, and Barbara. I’m just gonna warn you, this post is very long, and probably contains a lot of spoilers. It’s your choice whether you read it or not, but don’t get upset with me because I did warn you.

Okay, so I’m gonna start with the facts. These are the things the writers/cast have said directly themselves.

1. “You may have already seen Harley as a person that you thought you had met and known for a long time. So we always reserve the right to sort of do that as well.” - Ken Woodruff

2. “We might see (her) in episode 22.” - John Stephens

3. “The person is somehow connected to the Joker Cult World.”

4. Harley’s appearance in the finale is gonna be crazy. Crazy enough to be the launching point for season four.

Here are some random facts I gathered, that you may or may not already know about Harley:

1. She’s an expert gymnast

2. Her main weapons are a giant mallet, a baseball bat, and sometimes a gun

3. She used to be a psychiatrist

4. She went to Gotham University and graduated top of her class.

5. Her first job was at Arkham Asylum

6. She hates fish

7. And she can’t swim

8. Harley is known to have a crush on Bruce Wayne, even though she loves Joker

9. She is incredibly intelligent (Amanda Waller once stated that she is a genius)

10. She once brought a broken family back together

11. She switches back and forth from good to bad

12. She is schizophrenic

13. One of the voices she hears is her rational side (Dr. Harleen Quinzel)

14. She is bi-sexual

15. Her aliases are Dr. Holly Chance, Dr. Jessica Seaborn, Lee Harkwin, Holly Quinn, Harleen Frances Quinzel, Harriet Shankar, GG Harlin, and Kelvar Vest Girl.

16. Harley has Histrionic Personality Disorder (being flirtatious or seductive, wanting to be the center of attention, provocative clothes, shallow impressionistic speech, dramatic and excessively emotional personal presentation, suggestible by others (gullible), overestimates the intimacy of their social relationships.)

17. She was the only one in her family to graduate from College

18. She’s constantly seeking a sense of identity but doesn’t know how.

19. Her home life was very chaotic

20. Her character is full of conflicting personas.

21. “I loved flushing away the control. The goals. The regiment way of life I’d had. I was finally free. Free to forget. To play for fun. To play crazy.”

22. “The downside of this is that I’ve started to feel numb. In school, they had a name for it: dissociation. My rational mind can recognize pain when I see it. But my rational mind is in a pretty small box.”

23. She has obsession

24. She uses her obsessions to help define herself

25. She likes to cling onto things to help create some sense of self in her mind

26. She uses other people and objects to help define herself.

27. She is a character of passion

28. She is a hopeless romantic (she is weak when it comes to things like vulnerability)

29. She is always trying to figure out who she is, and what her role is in the world.

30. Unlike the Joker, she actually loves people

31. Harley has a strong sense of compassion and loyalty towards the people in her life.

32. As a child, she was heavily abused by her father

33. She has OCD, Histrionic Disorder, Antisocial Disorder (maybe?), Schizophrenia

34. She has this illness where she gets off (it literally turns her on) when her partner does something bad.

Okay so let’s start with Barbara :)

Cons of her being Harley: 1. She never was, nor will she ever be a psychiatrist. That’s a huge part of Harley’s story (pretty much every Harley version was a psychiatrist) and after all the bad crap she’s done, I don’t ever see her being a one. I don’t think they would even let her, even if she wanted to.

2. She’s older than Jerome. Now I don’t really see this as a problem unless they want to stick with Joker being older than Harley.

3. She’s already turned crazy.. she’s supposed to meet Joker first, fall in love with him, then become Harley.

4. Her name is Barbara Kean (an actual character in the comics and I think two Batman movies). She started calling herself Barbara Queen, which Queen sounds similar to Quinn, but her name is still Barbara. There is no way that you can turn the name Barbara into Harley.

5. Harley is known to be extremely loyal to the people in her life. Barbara, on the other hand, will turn on anybody if it’s for her benefit. Including Tabitha, which is probably the closest person to her.

6. Now I have no clue how true this is, but someone on IG said that one of the writers want Harley and Barbara to team up. If this is true, then that would be amazing, and it would mean she isn’t Harley.

Pros: 1. She has the appearance description (blonde hair and blue eyes)

2. She’s switched back and forth from good and bad once

3. She’s really intelligent (She figured out Penguin was the one behind Isabella’s death.)

4. Out of all the girls, she has paralleled Jerome the most

5. She’s openly bisexual

6. She and Jerome already had a partner in crime relationship

7. She coincidentally fell through a glass window, which then put her in a comma.

8. She’s already met Selina and Ivy (she even shared her apartment with Selina for a bit)

9. She calls herself Barbara Queen (which sounds a lot like Quinn)

10. She was at first a kind, caring, selfless, and moral individual. 

11. I think she has schizophrenia, as does Harley.

12. “The downside of this is that I’ve started to feel numb. In School, they had a name for it: dissociation. My rational mind can recognize pain when I see it. But my rational mind is in a pretty small box.” - Harley Quinn

13. “I loved flushing away the control. The goals. The regiment way of life I’d had. I was finally free. Free to forget. To play for fun. To play crazy.” - Harley Quinn

14. She grew up in a bad home, her mom would call her things like 'her little piggy'.

15. She and Tabby already started a club called The Sirens.

16. She finds it to be passionate when a man hits their woman

17. Jerome can already persuade her

18. “You’re a little pain in the ass.” - Joker SS

19. She and Jerome had a connection the moment she walked into Arkham.

20. She's basically the only character who laughs as much as Jerome/she’s also basically the only one (besides his cult) who finds him funny (so far)

21. She’s corny

22. We all know she’s crazy

23. She acts violently when upset without thinking

24. Harley is known to obsess over things, Barbara has this down pact. (She was obsessed with Jim, now she’s obsessed with wanting to be queen of the underworld)

25. She’s connected to the Joker Cult World obviously since she and Jerome have already met/interacted.

26. She’s flirty/seductive

27. She manipulates people to her advantage

28. “And right at the end of the season there is going to be a massive development for my character, so it’s going to be really exciting.” - Erin Richards

29. "What we did with Jerome, we basically said, how could we create a city.. or our job is to set Gotham up as a place where Batman is needed one day. And therefore what we did with Jerome, what if a character, took on that same anarchic chaotic sense of chaos that Jerome did, that the Joker did. And set a tone for Gotham. We're doing the same thing with Barbara as in like if we take her to the very edge of what that character, the sanity of that character, what would emerge afterward. So yeah, we're gonna explore that." - Danny Cannon.

30. A fan asked Danny ‘so she maybe is Harley?’ and Danny replied with “I’ll get in so much trouble if I say this.”

31. “There will be a big reveal, so whether it’s that or not, we’ll have to wait and see.” - Erin Richards

32. “She could get a different kind of crazy I think. Like.. there’s a lot of different crazies. So I think we could maybe see her evolve into a different aspect of that.” - Erin Richards

33. Barbara’s ultimate goal is to belong/ find out who she is. (Harley is constantly seeking a sense of identity but she doesn’t know how.) (Harley is always trying to figure out who she is, and what her role is in the world.)

34. Harley uses her obsessions to help define herself (I believe Barbara does the same)

35. Harley likes to cling onto things to help create some sense of self in her mind (I believe Barbara also does this.)

36. Harley uses other people and objects to help define herself. (And this as well)

37. She kind of used one of Harley’s signature weapons (mallet, but it wasn’t giant)

38. “The transformation that’s gonna happen at the end of this season is a big secret. It will involve me reading more comic books.” - Erin Richards

Okay, so a lot of things match up with Barbara. It’s possible that she’s Harley, but that would be a bad move on the show’s part. Not because of age or anything, but because she’s the most obvious choice in my opinion. Also because she already has a very important role in the comics. If she becomes Harley, then that would mean that there will be no Batgirl in this universe. But then I thought of more possibilities. Like, Tabitha (Tigress) is like an older version of Catwoman.. and we all know Selina Kyle is gonna be the future Catwoman. Anyway, Tabitha is kind of like a proto-Catwoman in my opinion. What if they’re making Barbara the proto Harley? I know I’m not making sense, but what if they’re gonna keep Barbara as Barbara Kean still, but make her have these traits so she can be ‘the older version proto Harley’. I hope you all can understand me. Okay, Tabitha is gonna be in a really vulnerable place later into the season, and Selina is gonna be in a very dark place, where she has nowhere else to turn. Tabitha is basically gonna take Selina under her wing, and teach her things. So the proto, older version of Catwoman is gonna be helping the future Catwoman. What if they’re doing the same thing with Barbara? You get what I’m saying? Also, Erin said there is going to be a massive character development for Barbara. Yes, it probably would be a pretty big deal if she was to become Harley.. but it honestly wouldn’t be massive in my opinion. I mean we’ve already seen Barbara act crazy (a lot may I add), and it honestly wouldn’t shock me if she was to become Harley, because hello, it would be so predictable. What I would consider a major character development is if she maybe does something good for once. Like maybe save someone’s life, or changing and becoming a better person. Not saying that’s gonna happen, but that’s what I would consider a major character development. Also if she was to change for the better, maybe she and Jim could get back together and have Barbara Gordon (Batgirl) and their son James Gordon Jr. It would also make sense her having this mental instability because their son turns out being a sociopath. This would mean he got it from his mother genetically. Like I said, this probably won’t happen, but it would make more sense than them making her Harley. Also, who knows, maybe Barbara herself will become batgirl. I could see it happening because of these tweets 

Leslie Thompkins :)

Cons: 1. Like Barbara, age. Like I said I don’t think age really matters. Especially since Jerome is the one coming onto the older women. The only way it would matter is if they’re sticking with Joker being older than Harley.

2. Not sure how accurate this is, but someone said that Lee is gonna do something really bad, and this something is gonna bring her and Jim together again.

3. She’s an actual character in the comics (as are Barbara, and Silver.)

4. She doesn’t have blonde hair, nor blue eyes (she’s still beyond beautiful though)

Pros: 1. Harley is known to have a sister (when she has Lucy, her sister takes care of her for Harley.) Lee mentions having a sister (in Jerome’s episode may I add) whose recipe she used.

2. Her nickname is Lee, which could easily be turned into Harley or Harleen. Her name is literally in the word Harley (Harlee; Also Harleen)

3. She is around the age of Grace Fairchild (one of the ogre’s victims) so my guess is she’s either in her early or mid-twenties. This would mean she’s actually not that much older than Jerome.

4. Lee Calvi is an alias for her and turns out Harley has an alias as Lee Harkwin

5. She was there when Jerome was first introduced

6. Jerome’s entire case fascinated her (this was Jim leading her to the interrogation room)

7. His case was the first, and only case where she went into the interrogation room with Jim.

8. She’s the only woman who has really been able to touch him, (She held and comforted him when they found his mother’s body, not to mention all the times he touched her, like at the gala, or when he was reborn and took her hostage.)

Bonus: “Everyone else sees the Joker laugh, but only Harley has ever seen him cry.” - Arleen Sorkin (He was faking, but still)

9. She worked at Arkham and could easily go back.

10. Jerome has both saved, and spared her life

11. She’s a doctor (she studied trauma but it’s not her area of focus) 

12. Though it’s not her area of focus, she still basically counseled Barbara and Bruce. She also gives a lot of psychiatric advice.. examples: 

(Lee: The way people, look at you. See you differently. You treat it like it’s a burden. You could be a source of pride or happiness even. 

Jim: Thank you doctor, same time next week. 

Lee: Don’t tempt me. I can psychoanalyze the heck out of you. But I’m gonna resist the urge.)

(Lee: You need to get some trauma counseling. 

Barbara: Doc, I’m happy. I’m happy to be alive. Which is why, Jim, I didn’t want to leave without saying thank you properly. Thank you for saving my life. 

Jim: I was glad to do it. 

Lee: Ms. Kean, trauma counseling, like yesterday. I have several recommendations for you. 

Barbara: Really, Doc, I’m fine.

Lee: You’re not fine. After what you’ve been through nobody would be fine. 

Barbara: Fine, if you will be my counselor. Why don’t we do it at my place.

Lee: No. I have some trauma training, but it’s not my area of focus.

Barbara: I like you. Okay, I can talk to you. Please?

Lee: Okay. Deal.)

(Lee: You were violently abducted. You nearly died. You must have been very scared. It’s normal to feel trauma. It’s nothing to be ashamed of.)

  13. She can be corny, sassy, and sarcastic

14. She's very intelligent (she and Harley both have intelligence listed as one of their abilities)

15. She’s tougher than she looks

16. The writers themselves said that Lee was nuts.

17. Lee is gonna be affected by the Alice Tetch Virus. Jim is gonna be fighting that while also fighting for Lee.

18. She’s becoming way darker  

19. Lee and Jim finally had sex, but guess when they did it? After Jerome’s interrogation. They had been hinting at it for a bit but she would put it off because of work, and then because she got interested in the case.. while in the interrogation room you could tell that she was fascinated with Jerome and you could even see her smirk a little a few times. Then once the interrogation was over she talked about how it was ugly but thrilling, and then suggested for them to ‘go home’. Then they, ya’ know. But all of this after she watched Jerome. Makes you wonder if he turned her on. Not to mention that Harley actually has this illness where she gets turned on by her partner doing bad things.

Lee: Truly. It was ugly, but it was also kind of thrilling. Jim: Thrilling? Lee: Thrilling and scary. Like.. like looking down a deep, dark tunnel. Thanks for letting me be there.

20. Out of everyone Jerome came in contact with in ‘smile like you mean it‘ episode, she’s the only one he didn’t kill.

21. She was also the first person he had a casual conversation with since he was brought back to life.

22. Jerome obviously is attracted to her (and she is attracted to him as well) I mean.. 

Not only is his tongue so close to her face, but if you look closely you can see she feels his bicep. 

And here she gently places her hand on top of his.

23. She wasn't even scared of Jerome. I honestly don't think she's ever been scared of him. Just my opinion. He's literally holding a gun to her and she doesn't care

24. She’s the only one Jerome calls ‘doc’ (Joker calls Harley doctor a lot)

25. Lee was playing along with Jerome, kind of just putting up with him (Harley’s the only one who puts up with Joker’s crap)

26. She’s met Selina (they were playful and got along. “You’re cute.. for a doctor.” “Thanks, you’re cute.. for a gangster.”

27. She tends to get overly enthusiastic about things; Harley is known to be passionate (and obsessed) about things.)

28. She was present during it all. She was there when Jerome was first introduced, when they found his mother (she held and comforted him), when Paul gave them the message from ‘Lilah beyond the grave’, when the weapon was found, when Jim interrogated Jerome and his true nature showed, and when Jerome first woke up after being reborn.

29. Plus she was the one Jerome and Barbara took hostage at the gala.

30. She somehow has managed to be present during most, if not all of his most important scenes.. (the writers chose to have her present during all these scenes. They control every single thing that happens on the show.)

31. “Don’t let your hatred of me turn you into something you’re not”

32. “I wish I could do that.”

33. “There is going to be a huge development in Lee Thompkins storyline which affects Jim." - Erin Richards

34. Lee is affected by the Alice Tetch Virus.

35. If I remember correctly, Harley (Harleen) doesn’t become crazy until after she meets the Joker and falls in love with him. We haven’t seen Lee’s crazy side yet, but that doesn’t mean we won’t soon.

36. Similarities

37. Look at how they interact/ look at each other

They both have a certain look when they look at each other. Like Lee is trying to put up a tough demeanor, but when she looks at him you literally see her eyes soften. It looks somewhat harsh because she’s trying to act tough, but you can also see desire. Jerome’s eyes soften too. I haven’t seen either of the two look at anybody else like that. Actions speak louder than words.

38. What was the point in him asking that? He probably wanted to know for personal reasons :) 

39. Harley was serious and a little uptight at first when she interacted with the joker, kind of like Lee. 

She has quite a lot of things in common with Harley, and she fits the most when it comes to Harley’s origin. She’s a doctor who studied trauma (even though it’s not her area of focus), her nickname is Lee, she’s incredibly intelligent, etc. In my opinion, Lee or Silver would be the best choice. Plus her and Jerome definitely have the chemistry, she’s connected to the Joker Cult World (she’s met and interacted with Jerome, aka Joker), She’s a character we’ve known for quite a while, and she’s definitely going down this really dark path due to the Virus. She would be the person people would least expect.. in my opinion anyway. I’m thinking either she’s gonna get rid of the virus, and still become Harley because she likes how it feels to be free, or maybe she will get rid of the virus and decide to go work at Arkham again. She’s already basically counseled Bruce and Barbara, so maybe she will go back and work as a psychiatrist. I don’t know, probably not.

Silver St. Cloud :)

Cons: 1. Silver’s favorite animal is a dolphin (Harley hates fish.. but maybe she just means eating fish)

2. She once went swimming with a dolphin. But the issue is Harley can’t swim

3. She has blonde hair, but instead of blue eyes, they’re brown.

4. She’s also her own character in the comics

Pros: 1. If they were to stick with the Joker being older than Harley, then she would fit best

2. Harley is known to have a crush on Bruce Wayne. Silver has feelings for Bruce, and their relationship is rocky now due to what all happened.

3. As far as we know Silver had good parents. But when her father died she became the ward of Theo Galavan. Harley’s father was a criminal that used to abuse her. Theo is technically her guardian, and he abuses her.. so I believe this can still apply.

4. She did everything Theo asked of her, because she was scared of him, and she didn’t want to be outcast from the family. So if she did everything she did out of fear, imagine what all she would do out of love.

5. She is very gullible

6. She is a master manipulator

7. Though she and Jerome haven’t met yet, she is still connected to the Joker Cult World, because she was working for Theo as was Jerome.

8. She can be incredibly loyal

9. She was pushed out of a window by Tabitha when they were trying to escape Theo.

10. She is a hopeless romantic

12. Jessica was talking about ‘The Sirens Club’ is gonna have new people join, but she couldn’t say much about it. I believe Silver is gonna come back, and she will be one of the new members.

13. Out of all the choices, she has the advantage point. We know Barbara owned an art gallery, and Lee is a doctor, but Silver is still young and doesn’t have a career yet. So if she does turn out to be Harley, she still has a chance to either be an intern or become a psychiatrist and meet Jerome the right way.

14. Silver isn’t a bad person, people hate her because she got between BatCat and because she manipulated Bruce. I just wanna remind everyone that the only reason she did those things was because Theo would have killed her or cast her out of the family. So she’s not all bad

15. “Am I Harley? *whispers* You’ll have to wait and see.” - Natalie Alyn Lind on IG live

16. She and Jerome both acted innocent at first, before they revealed their true nature

17. She always had to work for Theo, so we never really saw her have fun. We also didn’t see her crazy side yet, but once again that doesn’t mean we won’t. Especially now that she’s free from Theo. I can see this apply to her as well.

18. “Little Minx”

19. “You can’t even imagine the things I’ve done. There’s no hope. There’s no going back to normal life.”

20. Natalie and Cameron met at Vanity Fair and took some playful pictures together. One was of the two just smiling, and the other was them acting like she punched him. She captioned the pictures ‘ Jerome and Silver takeover’.

21. Natalie is gonna be 18 this June, so she will be of age (she can be with both Jerome and Ivy on the show legally) I have no clue what her age is on the show, but I would say around 15 or 16. Maybe even 17?

22. Silver was introduced the very next episode after Jerome’s death.

So Silver and Lee are sticking out to me the most. I honestly think Silver has the biggest advantage out of everyone else. Simply because we don’t know what happened to her after she and Tabitha escaped Theo. Tabitha came back.. so why didn’t Silver? I have a theory on this as well. Tabitha cared enough about Silver to save her from Theo, and she was always kind of protective of her. What if Tabitha sent Silver somewhere so she could be safe. For one to keep her safe from Theo, and two because Tabitha lives a sort of dangerous life.  I honestly feel like she sent Silver somewhere that she could be safe and have a normal teenage life. But maybe something happens, and Silver comes back and is under Tabby’s care. If she was to come back, she would more than likely join the sirens. Considering she and Tabitha are family.. Jessica said a few more girls will be joining the Sirens, but she couldn’t talk much about it. We all know the original Sirens (in the comics) include Poison Ivy, Catwoman, and Harley Quinn. Well this  would be the same case, but Babs and Tabs will be in it as well. Silver could be doing anything right now. She could be studying criminology (she definitely has the motive) or interning or anything. With Silver as Harley, they could do so much. Like, make her be studying criminology right now, to try and figure out why her uncle (her father figure) did what all he did. They can bring her back to Gotham and where she will be under Tabitha’s care, maybe join the sirens, or maybe even intern at Arkham where she meets Jerome, etc. They can do all of this.. the only thing that would be off would be her name. But maybe they can fix that. Also we all know Ivy and Harley end up having a romantic relationship. Ivy on the show is a 19 year old with the mind of a child still. I honestly have no clue how old the characters on the show are. I know Ivy is 19 (like I just said), and I think Jerome is 19, considering he was 18 when he died. Both Joker and Ivy are older than Harley I’m pretty sure. I think Silver is maybe 16 or 17? I’m honestly not sure, but I do know she’s younger than Jerome and Ivy. She would make the most sense in my opinion, either her or Lee.

(Sorry if there are a lot of mistakes, but I’ve been working on this so long and I honestly don’t feel like going back over it and fixing things. I hope you all can understand everything I’m trying to say lmao. Be sure to tell me your thoughts! Who do you think it will be? What do you think of this post? I love feedback, just please be respectful :) 

[girlwsoftsound]

Puzzle Pieces || Adam Hann Oneshot

Word Count: 3,093 Summary: Single father Adam runs into you at a park courtesy of his daughter’s curiosity. The rest? It’s history.  Author’s Note: Hope this puts a smile on your faces today xoxo. Love you all. Please feel free to send more requests here! Enjoy! They say that new experiences heal old wounds.

That was what you liked to believe, anyway. Your past was not necessarily littered with trouble, but rather marked by a singular downside, a singular event that forever changed you. The baby was not planned, but you loved it just the same. Sure, its father neglected to even talk to you, but you were determined to not let it stop you from becoming the best mother your child could ask for. You worked as hard as you could to save for supplies, you looked into moving nearby a better school district. You prepared yourself to be a mother. It was not your fault that it was taken away, but the wound it left never healed.

You hid your grief well. Sure, some days if you saw a lady walk by with a baby, you had to fight off a tear or two, but you relatively kept it cool. Ironically so, you found comfort in seeing families like that. You cried but you felt better seeing good in the world, families with love abundant in their households. Your favorite pastime became sitting in the park, reading a book while hearing the children in the jungle gym play happily a few feet beyond you. Their laughter never failed to make you smile, even on your darkest days. It was a coping mechanism, and you swore never to give it up.

Sitting one day with a cup of coffee in one hand and your newest read in the other, you found yourself blessed with the sounds of a little girl playing with a random new friend of hers on the swingset. She was a gorgeous little thing, with blonde pigtails and the most beautiful blue-green eyes. She and her raven-haired friend spoke about anything and everything, though the topic mostly stayed about Barbies. The blonde girl loved Barbies, you learned. She wanted nothing more than to own her own Barbie Dream House. She made you smile. Her innocent happiness was contagious. She honestly reminded you a lot of what you imagined your own daughter to have been like, and somehow, the thought made you feel warm inside instead of dreadful like it should have. You said a silent prayer for her to one day get that Dream House, and then went back to your book.

Fifteen minutes later, you were met with a sad whine from the girl. Gazing over your book, you watched as, then by her side, a slender man with light brownish-blonde hair gently bargained with her to get her to leave the park. It took one pout of hers being met with a warm hug for you to realize the man was her father. He looked tired, but so full of love for his daughter. You pitied him as he began pleading with her to go. The little girl was rather adamant about not leaving. Her new friend over the course of the hour she had been there had become her new best friend, and to leave her without knowing if she would see her again? It was breaking her little heart. You smiled softly, shaking your head. The poor man had his work cut out trying to persuade her away.

But then, right when you thought it was a lost cause for him, you heard a squeal and her clapping her hands. Looking up, you saw her with her little arms wrapped around the man’s neck, a quiet laugh of genuine relief coming from him. Apparently, he had struck a bargain. The bargain made itself known to you quick, as mere minutes later they were on their way over to an ice cream stand not fifty feet from the play area. Ice cream, of course. The ‘get out of jail free’ card of parents. You shook your head again as you returned to your book. The poor man was in for one hell of a night with that sugar rush. You also hoped fleetingly that he had someone to help him with her. He needed some sort of rest, surely.

“Hi.”

You jumped, setting your book down in your lap immediately. Before you, pigtails and all, stood the little blonde girl from the swings, whom five minutes before had been giggling at her dad’s side waiting for ice cream. She did not have any with her yet, you observed. She also did not have her dad. You bit your lip and searched for him.

“Hi, what’s your name?”

Looking down, you were met with the beautiful blue-green eyes of the little girl. She smiled at you, and went to sit at your side. Where is her father?

“I’m uh...I’m {Y/N},” you told her, giving a polite smile. “What is your name?”

“Kassie,” she replied, her small voice going even higher in her excitement. “You have pretty hair!”

You blushed. “Thank you. Yours is delightful as well.”

Her face lit up. “Thanks! Dad helped me do it today. We learned how to do it from a video we watched. It’s fun to play with,” she said with a nod, her little fingers twirling her hair on either side. You couldn’t help but giggle at that. She was precious. “What are you reading?”

Gazing down at your book, you marked your place and then handed it to her. Kassie inspected the front cover eagerly, her eyes growing wide at the number of pages. “It’s a book called Pride and Prejudice. It’s a bit much for you now, but I’m sure one day you’ll read it.”

“Dad read me something big like this to help me go to sleep,” she told you as she traced the cover image with her finger. “I didn’t understand it, but Dad made it fun, so I liked it. Can you read me some of it?”

You sighed. “I’m not sure sweetie, I think you might want to go find your father, I’m not really-”

“Pleeeease?”

You suddenly realized just why her father had needed to resort to ice cream. She was real hard not to give into. Taking the book back from Kassie, you turned to the page you were on and cleared your throat.

“I have faults enough, but they are not, I hope, of understanding. My temper I dare not vouch for. It is, I believe, too little yielding— certainly too little for the convenience of the world. I cannot forget the follies and vices of other so soon as I ought, nor their offenses against myself. My feelings are not puffed about with every attempt to move them. My temper would perhaps be called resentful. My good opinion once lost, is lost forever.”

“Yup,” Kassie spoke, nodding so her pigtails bounced about, “just like I said. Didn’t understand it, but fun.”

You grinned. “I’m glad I made it fun for you, then.”

“Kassie!”

Rushing over with two ice creams came the brownish-blonde man. You watched as he practically fell to his knees to hug the little girl, his eyes fluttering shut in relief as his face went out of her view. She smiled up at him as if nothing had happened, and one of her little hands reached out for her ice cream. The man gave her a scolding look, but did give her the cone anyway. You thought it was perhaps so it did not melt in his hand like his own was beginning to.

“What on Earth made you think running away like that was acceptable?”

Kassie looked down, giving her ice cream a sullen lick. “I got bored.”

“Sweetheart you cannot just run away if you are bored,” he bemoaned. “Something bad could have happened. I thought I lost you.”

“I was okay, though. I met this lady and she was reading me her book!”

The man’s eyes fell on you. You noticed they were the exact piercing color as his daughter’s. They suited him wonderfully. “T-Thank you for watching her, I’m so sorry she ran off and bothered you-”

“No no, it’s fine,” you assured him, throwing in a smile to calm his already frazzled nerves, “she was quite interesting to talk to. A good listener, as well.”

Kassie grinned. “See Dad, I was good!”

“You and I are going to have a little chat later about this,” he spoke, his soft voice growing parental and causing the girl to shrink where she stood. Turning back to you, he held out his hand.

“I’m Adam, by the way.”

“{Y/N},” you offered, shaking his hand. “Really, she was no problem, just so you know. It was rather amusing having a...erm...”

“Six year old,” Adam finished with a smile.

“Six year old then, wanting to hear me read from Pride and Prejudice. I hope you didn’t mind me reading it to her. It was not a bad part, I assure you.”

“It’s alright,” he replied with a chuckle, “she’s heard me read from worse things in the past. I’m just glad she ended up with someone safe and kind. Truly, I am grateful.”

Smiling, you looked over at the little girl eating by his side. “I’m grateful I could help.”

Turning back to Adam, you caught a glimpse of him watching you. He quickly looked away and busied himself with Kassie, but you did not forget it. How could you forget those beautiful eyes gazing at you? To do so would be impossible. Adam looked like he wished to forget you caught him though, for he suddenly was hurrying to get Kassie ready to head home. Taking her little hand into his, he thanked you once more, to which you replied with just as warm of a reassurance that it was no problem to you as before. You watched as the two made their way away. You had no clue how or when, but you knew one thing: you wanted to see both of them again.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You don’t see them again for another month. You do look every time you go, listening for the little laughter of Kassie and Adam’s exhausted parenting, but it never showed up until one afternoon. Coming later than planned, you took your normal seat on the bench and cracked open a new book. Your head buried itself in the pages only for a mere five minutes before suddenly, you heard small footsteps run up to you. Gazing over the book, you were eye to eye with Kassie. She grinned happily.

“{Y/N}! You’re back!”

You gave the little girl a kind smile as she sat beside you. “Hi there, Kassie. You aren’t running away from your father again, are you?”

“No, she’s allowed.”

Looking up from Kassie, you smiled up at Adam. He looked stunning in a soft purple sweater and black pants. You noticed his hair was longer, now falling slightly in his face. It suited him. You offered him a spot on the other side of you, and he took it graciously.

“Where have you two been?”

“We had to make our trips to the park later because someone here started first grade,” Adam said, throwing a wink Kassie’s way. The little girl blushed and covered her face. Her hair was down this day, and it fell right into her face, making her look like a mess of blonde. It truly was adorable. “Hey Kassie dear, can you go run off for a bit and play? I want to chat with our friend here for a bit.”

Nodding, Kassie jumped off of the bench. She waved back at you and then sprinted headstrong into the playground, leaving you and Adam alone. Setting your book aside, you figured you might as well turn to face the man. He smiled when you did, adorably just like his daughter.

“Sorry if we interrupted you, Kassie was just so excited to see you again and-”

“It was fine,” you told him, “honestly. I was wondering where you guys ended up, anyway. First grade though, that’s exciting! I’m sure your household has been buzzing these past few weeks.”

Adam chuckled and hung his head. “It’s certainly been wild. The boys haven’t really been much help, either.”

“Boys? Do you have more kids?”

“Oh, no no...well, on the other hand,” Adam paused and laughed. “No, Kassie’s an only child. They’re my three close childhood friends, or how I like to call it, my extended family. We’re all in a band together and ever since Kassie came around, they love spending time over with me.”

“So, like Full House?”

He smiled. “Essentially, though I’d die before I let any of them live with me.”

You giggled. “So...are they good friends with your wife?”

You did not realize it when you said it, but your words struck a nerve in Adam. He let out a sharp ‘no’ and seemed to bristle at the thought, turning away from you slightly. You watched in a mixture of sadness and confusion as he folded his arms and sort of curled in on himself. It hurt you tremendously.

“Adam, I’m sorry if I-”

“No, no you’re alright,” he forced out, shaking his head. “It’s just...Kassie’s mother and I do not talk anymore for very serious reasons.”

Your face fell. “Do you mind me asking why?”

“She sort of changed after Kassie was born,” he said with a sigh. “She got real callous and cruel and...and she created an environment where I felt Kassie was not safe in. We went to court and I got full custody from her.”

“Oh my god.”

“Yeah.”

“I’m so sorry,” you said, barely above a whisper. He let out a deep sigh.

“Thankfully Kassie was so young, she never found out. I’ll tell her when she’s older and can understand but...not now, you know? She’s so innocent and high on life.”

“I don’t blame you,” you replied. “It’s too early for her to fully get it.”

“She asks why she doesn’t have a mom sometimes. It’s why I allow the boys around her so often. The extra hands and the company makes life more normal for her, kind of fills the void.”

“I can only imagine.”

“Sorry I’m dumping all of this on you,” he said softly, leaning back against the bench. “I know, it’s a lot. Loss is kind of a big thing to just throw on random strangers you meet in a park.”

You gave him a sympathetic smile. “It’s okay. I actually have a heavy reason I’m here.”

“I’m open to hearing it, if you don’t mind.”

Nodding, you looked out over at the playground. “I um...I lost a child about three years back. They weren’t planned and I was down on my luck but...I was so excited to be a mom, I didn’t care. I worked my tail off just trying to give my son or daughter the best life, and I lost the chance before I even got to know its sex. It ruined me for a while, though I kept my feelings quite secret. My only solace was to come out here, read a good book, and hear the sound of the kids all having fun and living life blissfully happy. It’s why I always try to make time in my week to come out here. It reminds me that, even from the worst of times, something good can still be out in this world.”

Within seconds, Adam’s lips were on yours.

You two stayed connected like that, Adam’s hand cupping your cheek, your lips working against his, until both of you realized where you were, and stopped to come back to your senses. Adam blushed furiously, unable to even look you in the eye as he let out a shaky breath. You stared at him wide-eyed, more out of amazement than anything. You hardly knew he had that in him.

“Sorry, I just...words failed me. That’s the only way I knew how to let you know how I felt.”

You nodded. Reaching over to him, you rested your hand just above his knee. He looked you in the eye. “It’s okay. T-Thank you, Adam.”

“You’re very welcome, {Y/N}.”

“Look,” you said, running a hand through your hair, “you’re a nice guy with a very adorable daughter and what I can tell is a really good heart. I want to talk to you more over something nice. Would you...would you mind having dinner with me sometime?”

Nodding, Adam leaned in and kissed your cheek, causing you to blush. “I would love nothing more than that. I-I’ll ask the boys if one of them can watch Kassie, and I’ll let you know?”

You grinned. “Sounds wonderful to me.”

With that, the two of you exchanged numbers and spent the remaining half of the hour learning more about each other, and Kassie. Discussion came easy, effortless even, and by the end of it when Adam had to leave, you two shared a lovely kiss, more genuine and sweet than the first. When your date happened a few days later, the fire did not die down. The two of you were smitten, truly happy to learn about the other and see what made them laugh, and smile, and what dreams they longed to accomplish. It made things easier given that you were so good with Kassie. The more Adam fell for you, the more she grew fond of you, and the more you seemed to fit the missing puzzle piece in their lives. It did not take long for him to see that he never wanted to lose your company.

He finally decided to make sure he wouldn’t  one afternoon, when you and him walked hand in hand alongside Kassie through the park, and he slipped a small box into Kassie’s hand behind your back with a nod. She waited until the three of you stopped at the bench you all met at, and then tugged at your coat jacket to stop. You were told to sit down, and when you did, Kassie gazed over at her dad and did what they had been planning for weeks. She pulled out the box, opened it so that you could see, and waited for Adam to join her at her side on one knee before asking you to, right then and there, become part of their family forever. The tears you let flow were abundant. Saying yes, you were brought into the arms of not only Adam, but Kassie. You kissed them both, your heart full and soaring.

They say that new experiences heal old wounds. After getting proposed to, you were sure that this new experience with your new family would forever heal yours.

[investintheself]

The Art of Execution - Chap 2

[The Assassins - The Art of Killing Losses] Chapter 2

(Never lose money) - Warren Buffett once famously revealed his rules for investing success: ‘Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget rule No. 1.’ - The Assassins are the investors who really lived and breathed this principle while working for me. When it came to selling losing positions so as to preserve their capital they were ruthless, like cold-hearted hit-men, pulling the trigger without emotion. Then they carried on with their lives like nothing had happened. - I don’t know about you, but whenever I sell out of a losing position I find it very hard to switch off. I relive my mistakes, I castigate myself, I generally feel like the figure in Edvard Munch’s painting ‘The Scream’. - I also find it very hard to stop checking how a stock is perofmring after I have sold. - All that misses the point. The point, as the Assassins so clearly understood, is that drawdowns left to their own devices are ultimately what destroys wealth. As we saw in the last chapter, large losses make an overall positive returns an almost impossible uphill battle. One should take positive delight in cutting them dead as soon as possible. - If the last chapter didn’t persuade you, consider the following table: Percentage Loss           /         Gain required to break even -10%                                                           11% -20%                                                           25% -33%                                                           50% -50%                                                           100% -75%                                                           300% -90%                                                           900% - Some notable fund managers take the same approach to losses as the assasins. Legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller once observed of fellow hedge fund manager legend, George Soros, that he is  ‘the best loss taker I have seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades that he can easily walk away from the position.’ - The Assassins, like Soros, understood that successful investing is about asymmetric returns. Phrased differently, winning is about ensuring the upside return potential is significantly greater than the downside potential loss. - Despite what you might imagine, in reality we can all be as cold and ruthless as the Assassins. - What I liked about the Assassins was that they lived by a pair of sacred rules. - The rules were derived from their own experience and beliefs, and the key to their success was that when they were losing they would always let the rules, not their emotions or feelings, drive their decisions. - They knew that when faced with the uncertainty that naturally follows when the market has turn against them, they could not rely on themselves to do the right thing. - They therefore committed to becoming slaves to the rules. When a loss occurred they would follow their commandments to the letter. - Importantly, these two rules had been well though through when the Assassins were in an emotionally ‘cold state’. They planned well in advance; before they invested, they knew what they would do afterwards. They did this because they knew that when push came to shove they were likely to make poor decisions in a ‘hot’ (or emotionally charged) state of mind. - As the old saying from Sun Tzu goes, ‘battles are won (or lost) before they are fought.’ - Here are the Assassins’ rules for what to do in a losing position, with data from my findings showing exactly why they make sense and example trades showing the Assassins’ adherence to them in practice. (The Code of the Assassins)

1) Kill all losers at 20-33% - one of the key secrets of the Assassins was that they knew just how hard it was to actually be a hitman. When it comes time to kill a losing trade, the temptation to wait is overwhelming. - They therefore did not rely on themselves to pull the trigger. Thanks to a simple but sophisticated device, their weapons went off automatically at exactly the right time, taking out their targets without delay. - This device is the humble stop-loss - The Assassins’ rules required them to put at stop-loss in place at the same time that they bought any share. If the stop-loss was triggered by a share price going down a certain amount, it automatically sold their entire stake. - Stop-losses are a common practice in trading but less so in investing (and it is no coincidence that a number of the Assassins were hedge fund managers). Most investors use ‘review’ prices instead - if one is hit, it forces a review of the holding to decide what to do. In theory this sounds good. The review is designed to wake us up and force us to take action, rather like the alarm on the fridge telling you that you have left the door open. The problem, however, is that too often the fund manager does not shut the fridge door. - Review clauses give the illusion of control rather than actual control. Stop-losses are greatly to be preferred. - So at what level do you set your stop-loss? - Legendary investor and art collector Roy Neuberger, whose investment firm Neuberger Berman bears his name, credits the 10% rule as part of the reason for his success. He always cut his losses when they hit 10% - no matter what. Recognise your mistakes early and take immediate action was his mantra. - The Assassins’ was the same, but they despatched their losers at slightly different predetermined points depending on their own experience and preferences: almost always somewhere between 20% and 33% (it depended on the Assassin). Despite Neuberger’s rule, my findings support the Assassins’ approach. This range of stop-loss levels avoids you getting whipsawed while giving a realistic chance of being able to recover from the loss incurred.  (data point - A 33% limit A loss of 33% requires a 50% subsequent return to break even. My findings show only 11% of the winning stocks (101 in total) that my top investors made produced realised returns of more than 50%. Only 21 of investments analysed realised a return of over 100% - 1% of the investments made. Price targets and a predisposition to snatching profits when winning (chap 4) help explain why so few big winners were realised. The reality is, many stocks go up hundreds or thousands of per cent, but few investors stay invested for the duration of the ride. Most sell once they have made a small profit and forsake super-normal returns as a result.)  ‘What makes a system successful is its ability to recognise losers and kill them quickly’ - James Surowiecki - Here are some examples of the Assassins’ stop-loss rule in action:  (Case study: Genmab) Genmab is a Danish biotechnology company based in Copenhagen that specialises in creating human antibody treatments for people suffering from cancer. At the time of writing, its Ofatumumab product that it is developing with GlaxoSmithKline is in phase three; should is successfully pass the final hurdle it would be a breakthrough for people suffering from leukaemia, non-Hodgekins’ lymphoma and rhematoid arthritis. If it can successfully demonstrate the effectiveness and safety of Ofatumumab then Genmab is sitting on a goldmine. As it happens, however, this share has not treated investors well in the past. Two weeks after an Assassin put his capital to work in the stock, he found himself sitting on a 30% loss. His stop-loss activated a -32% and he sold on 16 November 2009 with the shares trading at  £12.43, having originally bought into the company on 29 Oct 2009 when the shares traded at  £18.34. As it turns out. his decision to sell was a good one -  the shares went on to fall another 49%. While it was galling to take a 30% loss, he would have found himself down 65% and needing to generate a return of 296% to breakeven. Assuming the average stock market return of 8% per annum, it would take him 14 years to get his money back in nominal terms.  However, because he sold when the stock was down 32% he had the possibility of breaking even in 5 years using the same assumptions.  (Case study: Dods) Dods is a media company that focuses on providing information, organising events and publishing. All 3 activities are realted to the spheres of politics and the public sector. It is fair to say that Dods has become the most trusted source for political data. In the UK they provide publications such as Dods Parliamentary Companion and Dods Handbook of House of Commons Procedure to members of parliament and to civil servants tasked with supporting them. In Europe they provide data to members of the Europeans parliament. With the library of data they have collected with respect to British parliamentary proceedings going back to 1832, it is hard for any other company to challenge them. They even have their own journalists tasked with covering the latest breaking news and providing high quality analysis beyond the headlines. Given this background you would imagine Dods would be a safe investment. What could possibly go wrong? One Assasin bought shares in Dods on 29 Dec 2006 when its shares were trading at  £0.51. Ten months later, his stop-loss at 39% sold out on 31 Oct 2007 at  £0.31. While a 39% loss was hard to stomach, the stock subsequently fell another 63%. Had he not sold when he did, he would have needed the stock to go up a mind-blowing 435% just to break even - which would take 20 years assuming an average stock market return of 8% per annum. In the world of investments there is no such thing as a safe bet. If you invest in a company and think that it is bulletproof, I urge you to have an action plan to decide what to do when things go wrong - things often do.) (Case Study: Royal Bank of Scotland) It should come as little surprise to find a bank stock amongst these case studies, given all the goings-on in the sector since the 2008 global financial crisis. In the UK, the Royal Bank of Scotland is one of the big banks. Indeed, it is one of three banks, excluding the Bank of England, permitted to issue UK banknotes. Sadly, nowadays the Royal Bank of Scotland has become synonymous with the credit crunch because it needed to be bailed out by the government, a source of anger for many in the UK. It was deemed too big to fail. At the time of writing the government owns 82% of the shares outstanding, having been forced to recapitalise tha bank in order to prevent a run on the banking system. An Assassin bought shares in the Royal Bank of Scotland on 30 May 2008, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the onset of the credit crunch, at  £22.29. As the credit crisis broke, he actually moved quicker than his stop-loss, killing the investment on 3 Oct at  £ 18.62, a loss of 16%. The stock then fell a further 82%. Had he not sold, he would have required his shares in the Royal Bank of Scotland to make a return of 667% just to break even, which equates to 25 years given average market returns. Nursing a 16% loss he can recover that in just 2 years assuming average market returns. - What amazes me is that investors, unlike traders, rarely use stop-losses. Indeed, many investors frown upon them as crude instruments because they want to have the flexibility to decide what to do instead of mindlessly and mechanically selling. - I believe investors over-look the beauty of stop-losses. They force action at a time when action is required. (Data Point: Better Off Out) Of the 946 losing investments of my top investors, 557 (59%) made money after they were sold. In other words, 41%(389 investments) continued to see their share price fall further. This might suggest that you should continue to hold onto a loser because roughly 6 out of 10 that were sold subsequently went on to deliver positive returns from the point of sale. However, consider the following: of those 557 stocks, 205 (or 37%) went on to return less than 20%, which may not have been enough for you to recover your losses. Overall therefore, 594 (389+205), or 63% of losing stocks went on to produce a return of less than 20% post-sale, with the majority of those losing money. As a result, only 352 (946 - 594), or 37% of stocks that had lost the investor money when he sold went on to return more than 20%. In conclusion, two-thirds of the time you are likely to be better off cutting a losing position. Part of this is arguably skewed because people tend to sell their winners too soon(something we’ll look at later in the book). In other words, the losers could have realised greater returns than 20% had the investor held onto them. Human habits, however, mean riding big winners is very hard to do in practice. Rumour had it that legendary billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones II tells everyone: ‘Losers average losers, so sell losing positions’ Clearly with good reason. 2) Kill losers after a fixed amount of time - The reasoning behind the Assassins’ second rule is best summed up by the old axiom: Time is money. - Being in a losing position too long - even if the size of that loss hasn’t hit 20% or more - can have a devastating effect on your wealth. This was something the Assassins were actually aware of. - Why is this the case? - The long-term annual return for stocks, depending on where you take the start and end points, is between 7 and 9% according to most studies. If you earn 9% a year on your investments, this would mean you double your money in 8 years. - Let’s assume you take out a mortgage and decide to invest a kump sum of money in the stock market to help pay it off. You make the assumption that you will make 9% a year and will therefore be in a position to pay off the mortgage in 8 years’ time because your initial lump sum will have doubled in value. - Sadly, in the real world, things rarely turn out so smoothly. In this examplem you find yourself at the end of the second year with your initial investment down 10%. Not too bad, I heard you say. Only a 10% ‘paper’ loss - and you still have another 6 years left before you need the money to pay off the mortgage. - Unfortunately, even a small loss like 10% can have a significant impact. Given you now only have 6 years left to double your money and pay off your mortgage, you now have to achieve a return of 14.2% per annum to reach your goal - significantly above the long-run average return of the stock market. - Despite these implications you decide to stay invested. You reason that upcoming years in the stock market must give better returns than the long-run average because the previous two years have been delivered worse- than-average returns. - Another 2 years pass, at the end of which you haven’t lost any more money, but you haven’t gained any either - your investment flatlined and your overall return after 4 years is -10% in absolute terms (I won’t discuss inflation and how the likely real value has fallen by more than this). At this point you figure that you are now ‘due’ some good fortune and to sell out would be wrong. You reason that you are only down 10%, so its easy to make up the loss and get back on track to pay off the mortgage in the 4 years left. - Sadly, you do not appreciate that to be able to pay off your mortgage in 4 years’ time, you now need to achieve a staggering 22.1% per annum return. This is triple the long term average return of the stock market. Good luck with that.  - The Assassins’ second rule was therefore to sell stocks which went down by any amount and showed no signs of recovery after a certain period of time. - The majority drew the line at 6 months, but there were variations, as the following data point shows: (Data point: Professionals sell losers quickly) Analysing the figures, 64% (607 bad buys) were sold within 6 months of initial purchase, whilst 42% (397 bad buys) were sold within 3 months. Only 17% (157) of bad buys were held for longer than 1 year. Indeed, 99% of all bad buys were sold within 3 years. Stated more starkly, only 12 investments that were realised for a loss were held for longer than 3 years. Most professionals sell quickly. I am sure some of that is down to outside pressure from clients or bosses, but even a reluctant Assassin is better than an unrestrained Rabbit. - Large losses kill you quickly, while small losses kill you slowly. The following are some quotes that echo the latter point in particular: ‘The best performers force deadlines on themselves.’ ‘Have a time stop...it is very hard to make up the lost compounding years.’ - And Jesse Livermore, one of the wealthiest individuals in America at the turn of the 19th century, once said: ‘if it feels like a struggle then you should get out.’ - That sums up exactly the philosophy of the Assassins. (Don’t sell too soon) - It can be very tempting to take assassination to extremes and start cutting losses dead at 5, 10, 15%. Why not despatch the unhappy victims as soon as possible? - It’s important to realise that the Assassins’ rules did not just protect them from indecision - but from overreaction too. - Below I use real life examples from some of my other investors to illustrate what could happen to you if you sell too early (with a loss of less than 20%). These are would-be Assassins, exiled from the gang for over-eagerness. Remember these stock examples are real and had millions of dollars invested in them. (Case study: Compass group) Compass group is a UK-based business that operates in over 50 countries and is the world’s largest food service company (providing contract catering). It serves billions of meals a year for clients including factories, schools, hospitals, universities, major sports venues and offshore oil platforms. Its Eurest Support Services subsidiary specialises in providing large scale food services in harsh environments such as conflict zones; the military is a big client. One of the investors that I managed bought into the group on 30 Nov 2007 when the shares were trading at  £3.19 each. He subsequently sold his entire investment in the company 12 months later on 2 Dec 2008 with the shares trading at  £3.04, incurring a loss of just 5%. At the time of writing, the stock has gone on to return 143% since it was sold. Sure, the market has done on to return 143% since it was sold. Sure, the market has rallied and he sold close to the bottom - but the return was more than the market subsequently generated as well. (Case Study: BMW) What is there not to love about a car maker that has captured the imaginations of everyone from corporate fleet managers, who lease 3 series saloons in staggering numbers, to middle-class mums ferrying their children around in its SUVs? Not to mention middle-aged men who try to recapture their youth driving the executive 6 or 7 series or the Z4 Roadster. One of my investors chose to ivnest in BMW on 11 April 2008 - just before the credit crunch hit - at a price of  £34.95. He sold two months later on 23 June 2008 at a price of  £32.35 for a loss of a mere 7%. Before you jump to conclusions, let me assure you that he did not sell because he foresaw the imminent credit crunch. He sold because a better idea had apparently presented itself. The stock went on to return 95% after he sold it. (Case study: Pirelli) Sticking to the motoring theme, we go from German automotive powerhouse to Italian tyre manufacturing behemoth Pirelli. It is the 5th largest tyre manufacturer in the world, behind Bridgestone, Michelin, Goodyear and Continentail. Fans of Formula One will know Pirelli as the sport’s current exclusive tyre supplier. One of my investors bought a stake in Pirelli on 22 Jan 2010 with the shares trading at  €4.61. He subsequently sold just one month later on 9 Feb at a price of  € 4.26. A loss of 8%. As you might expect, I questioned whether my investor had turned into a trader given the brevity of his investment. Pirelli has gone on to return 103% at the time of writing. (Case study: Rightmove) In the UK everyone knows Rightmove - it is the default place to search if you are looking for a property to rent or buy. As a result, all estate agents advertise properties on it. This has resulted in Rightmove seeing its turnover increase handsomely year on year. It is basically the Google for British property searches. One of my investors bought shares in this company when they traded at  £5.51 on 13 Nov 2009. He subsequently sold one month later on 30 December 2009 when the shares were trading at a price of  £4.91, a loss of 11%. The shares shot up 202% following his sale. (data point: whipsawed sore) Of the 1,866 investments made by my top investors, 421 (22%) were realised for a loss of up to 10%. I discovered that 249 (59%) of these went on to make money. This suggests that if you cut your losses after suffering a minimal loss, you are probably going to be whipsawed. Moreover, a 10% loss is something that is easily recoverable, even if you have a disposition to take profits when you have made a mere 20%. (Be careful on your next investment) - An Assassin’s coldness is a great advantage not only in cutting losing investments dead - it needs to be cultivated in the investment decisions that come afterwards. - Research by Mike Thaler and Eric Johnson suggests that once a person has sold a losing investment, their behaviour turns to risk-seeking, something they coined the ‘break-even effect’. In the presence of prior losses, outcomes offering a chance to break even are especially attractive. - Make sure you don’t fall into this trap. I know many profressional investors who make this mistake, but this is as much to do with ‘career risk’ as anything else. They know that if they do not turn their losing situation around they will be fired. - When you sell out of a losing positon you are making two decisions: 1) It is no longer a good idea to have the money tied up in that stock. 2) Your money would make a better return invested elsewhere (an opportunity-cost decision) - Only reinvest the proceeds in another stock if that choice is compelling. As Peter Lynch once said: ‘In 9 cases out of 10, I sell if company 380 has a better story than company 212, and especially when the latter story begins to sound unlikely’. - The approach Lynch is describing is known as the ‘pig-in-a-trough approach’. This is where a new idea forces out an existing idea. However, lack of an alternative compelling investment is no excuse for continuing to have money tied up in a low-conviction losing position. Having money sitting in cash gives you an option. Always having your nose in the trough can be very dangerous. As the Wall St saying goes: ‘Bulls win, bears win, but pig gets slaughtered’. (An Elusive Cadre) - Selling losers quickly is the key, so why do we struggle to do it? - Perhaps because realising a loss is 10 times more painful than living with it merely on paper. Back in 1979, a seminal reserach paper - again by Kahneman and Twersky - showed that the pain experienced from losing, say $50, was far worse than the joy we experience when we win $50. We find it easy and pleasurable to sell a winning stock, but difficult and painful to sell out of a losing position. - There’s also the question of whether a stock might rally after we sell it. The very idea freezes many into inaction.  ‘In life and busines, there are not cardinal sins. The first is to act precipitously without thought and the second is to not act at all.’ - Carl Icahn - The Assassins were some of the most disciplined investors I have met, and a significant factor in their ability to make money was that they cut their losses consistently. A study by Professor Frazzini supports the Assassins’ approach too: it shows that the highest investment returns were achieved by those investors that had the highest rate of selling out of losing positions. Those that realised the least amount of losing positions experienced the lowest returns. - The losing trait of riding losing positions while taking profits on winning positions has been called the disposition effect by Frazzini. When I hire a new investment manager, I analyse their past trades to see whether or not they unduly suffer from this malady. I only want to work with investors who materially adapt when they are losing. - The way I remember the importance of avoiding big losers is perhaps not very Assassin-eque. I do it with a simple Post-it note. It’s stuck to the edge of my computer monitor and it says: ‘Losers hand around with losers while winners hang around with winners.’ - I need this reminder because it helps overcome labelling a great investor as terrible because they frequently take small losses. After years of an investor repeatedly telling you that they are wrong, you find yourself thinking, ‘this guy is useless, he never gets anything right.’ The reality, however, is that they appreciate that the execution of an idea is key, not being right per se. In particular, they know that cutting their losses early matters if they want to be successful. - They are an Assassin. And that is no bad thing. - It took me a few years to appreciate this basic point, and only after I had found that my data empirically supported it did I realise its magnitude for achieving success in investing.  END OF CHAPTER 2