#amos tversky

[calicojack1718]

The Passing of Daniel Kahneman, Personal Hero and Inspiration of Ye Olde Blogge

SUMMARY: Daniel Kahneman died at age 90 on 27 March 2024. He was the co-founder of behavioral economics along with the late Amos Tversky, for which he won a Nobel Prize in economics. Kahneman’s work will have an enduring influence on the way we view decision making and human behavior. Ye Olde Blogge was greatly inspired by his work and used it to help explain and predict voting patterns, the…

[usunezukoinezu]

''What is more likely, that a seven-letter word randomly selected from a novel would end in ing or has the letter “n” as its sixth letter? This highlights both the availability bias and the conjunction fallacy. All seven-letter words ending with ing have the letter “n” as its sixth letter, but not all with the letter “n” as its sixth letter end in ing. Again, the driving force for the conjunction fallacy is the availability bias. Words ending with ing come to mind more easily.''

-Tversky and Kahneman, Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

[june-of-earth]

“The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.”

​— Amos Tversky​

[icaruspendragon]

“Feelings do far more than help us engage with articles, speeches, and books. They drive our rational conclusions, in the sense that the conclusions are just an excuse to justify the feelings. Influential research looking at how people make decisions, done by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, exposed the myth that people make choices in a fully rational way. Many of our financial choices illustrate that, as do our electoral ones. Often in elections, people follow their feelings and only later come up with reasons for their actions and beliefs. As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump masterfully played on people’s feelings, on their need to vent their anger over changes in society. Thanks to those feelings, some voters ended up supporting a man whose policies wouldn’t benefit them. Trump pushed lots of positive messages—Make America Great Again—but his underlying tactic was to arouse the feelings of people who felt marginalized and bypassed by other races, other countries, and by women, and to affirm the validity of those feelings. Maybe their desire for a powerful dad and a strong, decisive leader prompted such people to vote for someone who would later do nothing for them. But it wasn’t rationality that guided them; it was their feelings.”

-Writing to Persuade: How to Bring People Over to Your Side - Trish Hall

[azspot]

The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.

Amos Tversky

[nicdevera]

daniel kahneman died. someone do a cartoon, kahneman goes to heaven, amos tversky's there: "hey danny, i've got an idea for a paper"

[kendinigelistir]

YAVAŞ ve HIZLI DÜŞÜNMEK

Doğum tarihinizi oluşturan 8 rakamı yüksek sesle söyleyin.

Şimdi de bu 8 rakamı yüksek sesle tersten söyleyin.

Birincinisi söylerken, beyniniz Sistem 1 ile çalıştı. Hiç düşünmeden, hızlıca söyleyiverdiniz.

İkinicisini söylemeye çalışırken ise yavaşladınız, duraksadınız, zorlandınız. Beyniniz bu alışık olmadığınız görevi yerine getirirken Sistem 2 ile çalıştı.

Beynimizde iki farklı sistemin olduğunu keşfeden bilim insanları Daniel Kahneman ve Amos Tversky, bu buluşlarıyla Nobel ödülü aldılar.

YAZININ TAMAMI : https://www.kendinigelistir.com/yavas-ve-hizli-dusunmek/

[eregyrn-falls]

Okay, I'm not ashamed to admit that I hadn't heard of "the conjunction fallacy" before! So I looked it up, and here it is for those others who haven't heard of it. (I'm also not sure that it's an example of the Conjuction Fallacy, exactly; but I'll get to that.)

From the Wikipedia article (a bit long, but thorough):

The conjunction fallacy (also known as the Linda problem) is an inference that a conjoint set of two or more specific conclusions is likelier than any single member of that same set, in violation of the laws of probability. It is a type of formal fallacy. The most often-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.[2][3][4] Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable? 1. Linda is a bank teller. 2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. The majority of those asked chose option 2. However, the probability of two events occurring together (that is, in conjunction) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring itself. (I cut out a bit here that wouldn't copy that well; see the original article for a written mathematical formula that expresses this.) For example, even choosing a very low probability of Linda's being a bank teller, say Pr(Linda is a bank teller) = 0.05 and a high probability that she would be a feminist, say Pr(Linda is a feminist) = 0.95, then, assuming these two facts are independent of each other, Pr(Linda is a bank teller and Linda is a feminist) = 0.05 × 0.95 or 0.0475, lower than Pr(Linda is a bank teller). Tversky and Kahneman argue that most people get this problem wrong because they use a heuristic (an easily calculated) procedure called representativeness to make this kind of judgment: Option 2 seems more "representative" of Linda from the description of her, even though it is clearly mathematically less likely.[4] In other demonstrations, they argued that a specific scenario seemed more likely because of representativeness, but each added detail would actually make the scenario less and less likely. In this way it could be similar to the misleading vividness or slippery slope fallacies. More recently Kahneman has argued that the conjunction fallacy is a type of extension neglect.[5]

If I'm reading the intention of that tag correctly, the reason the Fairy vs. Walrus question is an example of the Conjunction Fallacy is because, as the OP here says, we're not just evaluating

"Would I be more surprised to run into a walrus?"

We're evaluating

"Would I be more surprised if a walrus knocked on my door?"

The second option is much more unlikely than the first one, because the first one has only one apparent requirement -- that I encounter a walrus (an animal that I know exists).

(This is leaving aside the fact that, if just asked the question, everybody is also evaluating unspoken conditions, such as our own individual likelihood to run into a walrus based on where we live and if we might normally expect there to be a live walrus in the vicinity... although, note that the simpler statement actually doesn't specify a live walrus. If you read further conditions into this, and suppose that "a walrus" could include a taxidermy walrus in a museum display, or a plush walrus, the likelihood could actually go up for many people.)

The second option, though, adds more complications to the scenario: the walrus is an animal that we know exists, the walrus is a presumably real, living animal, because the walrus is engaged in the action of knocking at a door, and specifically, it is OUR DOOR.

So in that scenario you have to calculate the likelihood of each separate condition, and as the conjunction fallacy points out, the requirement to fulfill ALL of these conditions at once makes the scenario MORE unlikely (mathematically; but also, logically).

This now cannot be a taxidermy walrus or a plush walrus, because the walrus itself is knocking at the door. (Note how this condition would be quite different if the original question had been phrased as, "There is a knock at your door, and you open it to find a walrus".) A lot of people first pointed out that "knocking at the door", as we understand the phrase (the actual action, plus its intention as a polite declaration of presence and request for entrance), seems almost impossible for a walrus to DO, or even understand in those terms. And then, of course, as with the first statement, people are evaluating not only whether they would expect to find a live walrus where they live, but now ALSO whether the walrus could get to their door at all (if you live in an apartment building, where the walrus would have to navigate an elevator or steps, this becomes far more impossible, in addition to the question of whether you live in an area where a walrus could realistically be.)

But *IS* this an example of the Conjunction Fallacy? As demonstrated (at length) above, it's definitely worded that way. But if I'm reading it correctly, the Conjunction Fallacy supposes that the majority of people will choose the more complex statement because it seems MORE representative (i.e. contains options that feel to the respondent as if those options make it more likely).

However, it seems like the majority of respondents to the poll *rejected* the more complex statement *because* the conjunction of options were added up and made it seem more and more unlikely. As people often argued: finding a fairy had knocked on your door requires ONE very improbable thing to have happened (fairies exist despite you having thought that was not possible). The walrus requires *at least* THREE improbable things to have happened, even though "walrus exists" is a given. ("Walrus could be in your area" is already improbable; then you are adding, "walrus can get to your door", and also, "walrus knows to knock and can do so".)

So it's phrased like the examples of the Conjunction Fallacy, but most respondents didn't, in fact, engage in the fallacy.

In conclusion: TIL!

(ed. to add the actual 2 possible choices in the original quote, as I didn't realize that those, too, did not copy/paste over, lol.)

because here's the thing here's the thing the question was not "would you be more surprised to run into a fairy or a walrus" the question was "would you be more surprised to find a fairy or a walrus AT YOUR DOOR" and while no, i do not believe in fairies and would be surprised to know they EXIST i would NOT be surprised to find one at my door. HOWEVER, if a WALRUS shows up at my door i have to contend with the fact that a walrus somehow made it to my apartment specifically and knocked on my door for god knows what reason. i would be more surprised to know that a fairy EXISTS, of course, but NOT that they're at my door, do you get me?

[starseedfxofficial]

The Monthly Timeframe & Statistical Arbitrage: The Secret Room Where Pros Print Profits Imagine if you could look at the market through a telescope while others squint through a cracked magnifying glass. That, my friend, is the power of the Monthly Timeframe in Forex trading. Combine it with statistical arbitrage, and you’re not just trading—you’re orchestrating calculated, data-backed heists in broad daylight. Yes, statistical arbitrage sounds like something you’d hear in a lecture sandwiched between quantum mechanics and a nap. But in the right hands, it’s a high-precision money printer. Especially when mapped across the serene, panoramic view of the Monthly Timeframe. Let’s break this down like a Swiss watch—layer by layer, gear by gear—to reveal a strategy most traders overlook. Why Most Traders Are Glued to the Wrong Screen You’ve probably seen it. The 5-minute chart addicts. Caffeine-fueled, overleveraged, flipping in and out of positions like they’re swiping on a dating app. It’s stressful. It’s noisy. It’s inefficient. But here’s the thing: statistical arbitrage thrives on structure, on patterns that repeat not over minutes—but over months. Most traders ignore the Monthly Timeframe because it feels slow. But slow, in the Forex jungle, is often strategically lethal. “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” — Jesse Livermore Statistical arbitrage involves exploiting pricing inefficiencies between currency pairs by comparing their statistical behavior over time. And guess what? The Monthly Timeframe lets us zoom out, see macro mean reversion trends, and align our trades like a sniper, not a street brawler. How Monthly Data Exposes Arbitrage Opportunities Nobody Talks About When you analyze historical correlations, co-integration, and volatility regimes across a Monthly Timeframe, you uncover gold mines of inefficiencies. It’s like panning for gold with a metal detector instead of your bare hands. Here’s how the pros use it: 1. Identify Long-Term Price Divergences - Use co-integration tests (e.g., Augmented Dickey-Fuller) to discover long-term relationships between currency pairs. - Example: EUR/CHF and USD/CHF often exhibit mean-reverting behaviors over long periods. 2. Calculate Z-Score of Price Ratios - Create a spread ratio between two co-integrated pairs. - Calculate the Z-score over a rolling 12-month window. - When Z-score > +2 or 3. Entry and Exit - Enter a long/short position when the spread is two standard deviations away from the mean. - Exit when it returns to the mean (Z-score between -0.5 to +0.5). 4. Repeat with Machine Precision - Automate the detection with Python or R to process dozens of pair combinations. - Apply filters like average monthly volatility, liquidity, and macroeconomic correlation. And this isn't just theoretical. According to a 2023 study published in the Journal of Financial Econometrics, long-term statistical arbitrage strategies on monthly data had a Sharpe Ratio of 1.89, outperforming intraday methods by over 40%. The Hidden Power of Monthly Timeframe Anchoring Here’s where most traders miss the mark: they assume statistical arbitrage is just about numbers. But it’s also about psychology. The Monthly Timeframe acts as a psychological anchor. When your trades are aligned with the long-term structure of the market, your emotional discipline improves. You stop overtrading. You stop panicking on drawdowns. You start making decisions with a chess player’s patience. This anchoring principle is even backed by behavioral finance. As Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed in their research on Prospect Theory, humans overweight short-term losses—leading to fear-based exits. Monthly charts calm this panic impulse. Why Most Arbitrage Bots Fail (and How You Can Avoid It) Most retail arbitrage bots scrape data from short timeframes. They chase micro-movements. And they often die of a thousand cuts: slippage, spreads, noise. Instead, use the Monthly Timeframe to train your algorithms on meaningful price structures: - Feed models 10+ years of monthly data to detect mean-reverting cycles. - Combine macroeconomic indicators: interest rate differentials, PMI data, and inflation correlations. - Optimize entry based on high-volatility deviation periods and exit using mean convergence metrics. Ninja Tactic: Use Bollinger Bands on the Z-score spread to visualize when it’s statistically ripe for a reversal. The “Shoe Sale” Fallacy: Mistaking Cheap for Opportunity Ever bought something just because it was 70% off—then never used it? That’s how most traders chase “bargain" trades. But in statistical arbitrage, being cheap doesn’t mean profitable. What matters is statistical significance, not emotional temptation. When the spread between GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD is wide, the question isn’t "Is this a good price?" It’s "Is this deviation statistically abnormal given historical co-movement?" You’re not bargain hunting—you’re running a quant lab in disguise. Case Study: The GBP/NZD vs. GBP/AUD Play In Q3 2023, monthly data showed the GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD pairs deviated from their mean by 2.6 standard deviations—a rare anomaly. A statistical arbitrage model flagged it. Traders went short GBP/NZD, long GBP/AUD. Three months later, both pairs reverted to their historical spread. Net ROI: 11.4%, with a max drawdown of just 2.1%. Moral of the story? It wasn’t a guess. It was math, patience, and the Monthly Timeframe. Underground Tools You Should Be Using (But Probably Aren’t) - StarseedFX Smart Trading Tool - Automates position sizing for statistical setups. - Free Trading Journal - Tracks win/loss ratios of your arbitrage models over multi-month cycles. - Community Access - Tap into trade ideas others are using across the Monthly Timeframe: Join here - Trading Plan Templates - Build setups around spread reversion logic and macro filters. - Free Forex Courses - Includes breakdowns of statistical arbitrage logic in digestible modules. Advanced Monthly Arbitrage Checklist Here’s a quick rundown of what elite traders are doing: Let’s Wrap This Up Like a Ninja Closes a Laptop Statistical arbitrage on the Monthly Timeframe is like spotting a quiet backdoor while everyone else is fighting at the front gate. It’s less about speed and more about precision, patience, and pattern recognition. While the crowd chases flashes, you build a fortress of calm decisions, rock-solid setups, and a data-driven edge. Now here’s your move: pick one pair, run a Z-score analysis over the last 5 years of Monthly data, and see if the market’s trying to whisper something only you are listening for. And if you want tools, data, or a community that eats this stuff for breakfast? StarseedFX is your dojo. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

[conceptsnest]

UGADI PACHADI & THE PSYCHOLOGY OF LIFE: TIMELESS LESSONS FROM MYTHOLOGY & HUMAN BEHAVIOR - CHAPTER 02

(Discussed previously- Chapter -01: The Deeper Meaning Behind Ugadi: Psychology & Mythology Intertwined, The Story of Yudhishthira and Karna – A Lesson in Balance, The Story of Lord Rama’s Exile – A Lesson in Balance,  Connection to Ugadi Pachadi Philosophy – The Balance of Life)

Link to Chapter 01:

Hedonic Adaptation Theory: An Overview

History and Origins: Hedonic Adaptation Theory, or the Set-Point Theory of Happiness, was first introduced by psychologists Brickman and Campbell in 1971 through their groundbreaking paper, Hedonic Relativism and Planning the Good Society.

Researchers like Sonja Lyubomirsky have expanded on this, emphasizing that while external factors like wealth or success can influence happiness, internal factors such as mindset and personality are the real drivers of lasting joy.

Understanding Human Behavior: Hedonic adaptation is crucial for understanding human behavior. This principle uncovers how we adjust to change, showing that our emotional state is less about what happens to us and more about our capacity to adapt. Recognizing this truth forces us to confront the reality- happiness isn’t a permanent state, and chasing external success won’t deliver lasting fulfillment.

Correlation to the Ugadi Pachadi Philosophy and Mythological Stories: The UgadiPachadiPhilosophy perfectly mirrors the principles of hedonic adaptation. The dish itself, made of six contrasting flavors—sweet, bitter, sour, spicy, salty, and tangy—serves as a metaphor for life’s emotional highs and lows. Just as each flavor represents a different emotional experience, hedonic adaptation shows how we cycle through these emotional states, with happiness and sorrow being temporary phases that we eventually return from to find balance.

In the stories of Yudhishthira and Karna and Lord Rama’s exile, we see resilience in the face of adversity, illustrating that emotional states, even when extreme, eventually stabilize. Karna, despite his enduring struggles and hardships, finds a way to maintain his honor and generosity, symbolizing the resilience to return to one’s emotional set-point despite external turmoil.

Similarly, Rama’s exile reflects a period of hardship that, though intense, ultimately leads to victory, showing that adversity is a temporary phase in the grand journey of life. These stories, along with the Ugadi Pachadi, highlight the core truth of hedonic adaptation—that emotions fluctuate, but with time, we return to a sense of equilibrium.

Relevance and Manifestation in Today’s Modern World

Adapting to Constant Change: In today’s fast-paced world, hedonic adaptation is more relevant than ever.

In a society where happiness is often equated with achievement and possession, this insight is critical. Real contentment comes from within, and our ability to adapt—whether to triumph or failure—is the key to well-being. By focusing on internal growth, gratitude, and mindfulness, we can shift the pursuit of happiness from external sources to lasting internal peace. The Ugadi Pachadi Philosophy and the hedonic treadmill remind us- life’s emotional ups and downs are fleeting, and peace comes from accepting and adapting to each phase with equanimity.

The Dual-Process Theory: An Overview

History and Origins: The Dual-Process Theory was popularized by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, particularly through his groundbreaking work in his 2011 book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. Kahneman, a psychologist and behavioral economist, proposed that humans process information in two distinct ways- System 1, which is fast, automatic, and intuitive, and System 2, which is slower, more deliberate, and analytical.

His research, in collaboration with Amos Tversky, challenged traditional economic theories by showing how cognitive biases and heuristics influence decision-making. The theory has since become foundational in understanding human cognition, revealing the underlying processes that drive behavior and decision-making.

Two Modes of Thinking: The Dual-Process Theory explains that humans rely on two systems of thinking when making decisions:

Correlation to the Ugadi Philosophy and Mythological Stories

Balance of Thought and Action: The Ugadi Pachadi Philosophy emphasizes balance and the intertwining of contrasting elements in life—sweet and sour, joy and sorrow—much like the dual processes in human decision-making. The two systems in Dual-Process Theory mirror the balance of quick, emotional reactions (System 1) and slow, reasoned thought (System 2), as seen in the stories of Yudhishthira and Karna and Lord Rama’s exile.

In Karna’s story, his System 1 thinking often led him to act impulsively, especially in moments of generosity or battle, while Yudhishthira’s measured approach exemplifies System 2 thinking—making decisions based on reason and strategic planning. Similarly, Rama’s exile represents the slow and deliberate acceptance of hardship (System 2), while his responses to injustice and betrayal often reflect System 1’s emotional, instinctual reactions to betrayal and adversity.

The Ugadi Pachadi, with its combination of contrasting flavors, reflects the coexistence of both fast and slow thinking in life, teaching us that balance in decision-making and emotions is necessary for personal growth and harmony.

Relevance and Manifestation in Today’s Modern World

Implications for Modern Decision-Making:

However, the theory also highlights the importance of System 2, or thoughtful, reflective decision-making, especially in situations that require more careful consideration and analysis, such as in financial decisions, relationships, or ethical dilemmas.

In today’s complex world, where information overload is common, people must become more aware of when they are operating on System 1—and when they need to engage System 2 to make informed, well-thought-out decisions. This can help us avoid cognitive pitfalls and lead to better, more balanced choices. Much like the Ugadi Pachadi’s lesson that life’s flavors should be embraced in their entirety, understanding and integrating both systems of thinking allows individuals to navigate the complexities of modern life with wisdom and resilience.

The ability to strike a balance between quick, intuitive reactions and thoughtful deliberation is crucial for emotional intelligence and effective decision-making in today’s ever-evolving world.

The Opponent-Process Theory of Emotion: An Overview

History and Origins: The Opponent-Process Theory of Emotion was developed by psychologist Richard Solomon in the 1970s. Solomon proposed that emotions are experienced in pairs, with one emotion being the primary reaction and the other the opponent, which acts as a counterbalance to the initial emotion. For example, experiencing intense fear may be followed by relief or calmness.

The theory suggests that these emotional opposites occur in rapid succession to maintain emotional equilibrium. Solomon’s theory challenged earlier views by positing that emotions are not isolated responses but part of a dynamic system that regulates emotional balance. His work in the field of affective science has had a lasting impact on how emotions are understood in terms of psychological adaptation and homeostasis.

Emotional Pairings and Balance:

This concept is crucial for understanding human behavior because it suggests that no emotional state is permanent; it will eventually give way to its opposite, helping individuals adapt to both positive and negative experiences.

Correlation to the Ugadi Philosophy and Mythological Stories

Life’s Emotional Cycles: The Ugadi Pachadi Philosophy perfectly reflects the dynamics of the Opponent-Process Theory by incorporating both sweet and bitter flavors, symbolizing the cyclical nature of life’s emotional experiences. Just as the Ugadi Pachaditeaches us that life is a balance of contrasting emotions—joy and sorrow, hope and despair—the Opponent-Process Theory suggests that emotional highs are often followed by lows, and vice versa.

In the stories of Yudhishthira and Karna and Lord Rama’s exile, we see this emotional ebb and flow. Karna’s triumphs in battle are often countered by deep sorrow from his betrayal and loss, while Rama’s exile brings immense suffering but is followed by eventual triumph and restoration of order. These stories mirror the idea that intense emotions—whether grief or joy—are not lasting and that, over time, the opposite emotion will emerge, restoring balance.

The Ugadi Pachadi, much like the opponent-process dynamic, encourages acceptance of both sweet and sour moments in life, teaching us to embrace the full spectrum of our emotional experiences.

Relevance and Manifestation in Today’s Modern World

Emotional Regulation in Contemporary Life: In today’s hyper-connected world—where social media, global crises, and nonstop stimuli amplify emotions—the Opponent-Process Theory is more relevant than ever.

Much like the Ugadi Pachadi’s lesson of embracing life’s contrasting flavors, the Opponent-Process Theory reminds us that emotional balance isn’t about eliminating highs and lows—it’s about learning to ride the waves. By mastering this dynamic, we cultivate the resilience needed to manage the complexity of modern emotional life.

Content Curated by: Dr Shoury Kuttappa

[mypotsotoso]

again, chát gi pi ti

Introduction

The phrase “It’s all about perspective” suggests that our understanding of reality is shaped by how we perceive and interpret the world. This concept resonates deeply in philosophy, psychology, and even linguistics, where subjectivity and context play crucial roles in shaping meaning.

From Immanuel Kant’s theory of perception to Lev Vygotsky’s sociocultural perspective, the idea that reality is a construct of our perspective is a recurring theme. This essay explores how perspective influences human thought, emotion, and interpretation, drawing from key theories and philosophical viewpoints.

1. The Philosophical Perspective: Kant and Nietzsche

One of the most influential thinkers in understanding perception was Immanuel Kant (1724-1804). In his Critique of Pure Reason, Kant argued that we do not perceive the world “as it is” (noumenon) but rather through the lens of our mental faculties (phenomenon). Our experiences are filtered by innate structures of cognition-such as space and time-which shape our interpretation of reality. This suggests that different individuals, due to different cognitive frameworks, may perceive the same situation in completely different ways.

Similarly, Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900) took this further with his idea of perspectivism. Nietzsche claimed that there is no single “objective” truth, only different perspectives shaped by cultural, psychological, and historical contexts. His famous statement, “There are no facts, only interpretations,” echoes the idea that our understanding is always colored by our viewpoint. This notion is evident in social conflicts, where differing perspectives lead to fundamentally different interpretations of the same event.

2. The psychological perspective: cognitive bias and constructivism

From a psychological standpoint, perspective is shaped by cognitive biases. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky introduced the concept of cognitive biases-systematic errors in thinking that affect our judgments. For example:

Confirmation bias makes individuals seek information that supports their pre-existing beliefs, reinforcing their unique perspectives.

The framing effect shows how the same information, when presented differently, can lead to vastly different interpretations (e.g., a 90% survival rate sounds reassuring, whereas a 10% death rate sounds alarming).

Additionally, Jean Piaget’s constructivist theory posits that knowledge is actively built rather than passively received. Our understanding of reality is constructed through experience, meaning that two individuals exposed to the same event can “construct” completely different meanings from it.

3. The linguistic perspective: Sapir-Whorf hypothesis

Language itself influences perspective. According to the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis (linguistic relativity theory), the structure of a language affects its speakers’ perception and worldview. For example, languages that differentiate between many shades of blue (e.g., Russian) may lead speakers to perceive colors differently compared to English speakers. This theory reinforces the idea that how we describe reality is inherently tied to how we perceive it.

4. Perspective in Everyday Life: A Social and Cultural Lens

Beyond theory, perspective affects how we navigate everyday life. Cultural background, upbringing, and personal experiences shape our interpretation of morality, beauty, success, and happiness. For instance:

In individualistic societies (e.g., the US), success is often viewed as personal achievement.

In collectivist societies (e.g., Japan), success is seen as benefiting the group.

These cultural perspectives lead to different values and behaviors, showing that what seems "true" or "correct" is often context-dependent.

Conclusion

The idea that "it’s all about perspective" is not merely a cliché but a profound reality backed by philosophy, psychology, and linguistics. Kant’s epistemology, Nietzsche’s perspectivism, cognitive biases, and linguistic relativity all point to the same conclusion: what we see is shaped by how we see. Understanding this can lead to greater empathy, critical thinking, and open-mindedness in a world where differing perspectives often lead to conflict.

[drjorgesblog]

Territorial Disputes in the Americas blog series. Post 20: Prospect theory, game theory and international territorial disputes

Prospect theory, game theory and international territorial disputes Prospect Theory, which is often associated with behavioral economics rather than game theory, shares some conceptual overlaps. Developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979, Prospect Theory describes how people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are known.…

[renatoferreiradasilva]

O Valor Intangível: Compreendendo o Comportamento Humano, Precificação e Valor Sentimental

Em um mundo cada vez mais dominado pela lógica orientada pelo mercado, a noção de valor frequentemente transcende meros parâmetros econômicos, tocando em aspectos profundamente pessoais e culturais. Esse complexo relacionamento foi vividamente ilustrado em um experimento social, no qual um influenciador abordou estranhos oferecendo cinquenta vezes o valor de seus smartphones em troca dos dispositivos. A condição crítica era que eles deveriam entregar os telefones imediatamente, sem deletar nenhum dado pessoal. Surpreendentemente, a maioria das pessoas recusou a oferta lucrativa, revelando que o valor subjetivo desses dispositivos superava em muito o incentivo monetário. Este artigo investiga as motivações humanas por trás dessas decisões e examina suas implicações para a precificação, políticas públicas e o arcabouço legal que rege ativos intangíveis.

Valor Sentimental e Preocupações com a Privacidade

O fator mais marcante em jogo nesse cenário é o apego sentimental e as preocupações com a privacidade relacionadas aos dispositivos pessoais. Os smartphones não são meramente ferramentas; eles contêm registros íntimos, fotos, mensagens e informações pessoais, muitas vezes se tornando extensões da identidade de seus proprietários. Perder ou expor esses dados constitui uma grave violação do controle e da autonomia pessoais. Assim, o valor percebido desses dispositivos frequentemente supera seu preço de mercado, tornando-os praticamente insubstituíveis. Por exemplo, um smartphone pode conter memórias insubstituíveis ou comunicações pessoais cruciais que não podem ser recuperadas, mesmo que o dispositivo seja substituído por um modelo idêntico.

Análise Comportamental e Percepção de Risco

A teoria econômica clássica sugere que os indivíduos deveriam racionalmente aceitar uma oferta alta em troca de um bem de baixo custo. No entanto, o experimento destaca como a percepção de risco pode ofuscar o ganho monetário. Nesse caso, o risco não é simplesmente a perda do dispositivo, mas o comprometimento potencial da privacidade. A psicologia comportamental, explorada por pesquisadores como Daniel Kahneman e Amos Tversky, demonstra que as pessoas tendem a superestimar as perdas potenciais, um conceito central na teoria do prospecto. Essa teoria postula que os indivíduos avaliam os resultados potenciais com base nos ganhos e perdas percebidos em relação a um ponto de referência, em vez de resultados absolutos. Isso explica a relutância em aceitar tais ofertas, apesar da recompensa financeira substancial, pois a perda percebida de privacidade supera o benefício monetário.

Efeito de Posse: Viés Cognitivo na Propriedade

Um fenômeno bem documentado conhecido como efeito de posse ajuda a explicar por que as pessoas atribuem maior valor aos bens que já possuem. Esse viés cognitivo faz com que os indivíduos valorizem um item mais altamente simplesmente porque o possuem. No experimento, quando confrontados com a possibilidade de vender seus telefones, os participantes consideraram não apenas o preço de mercado, mas também o valor pessoal derivado da posse. Isso ilustra como a precificação de bens pessoais envolve muito mais do que uma avaliação monetária objetiva.

Falhas de Mercado e o Desafio de Precificar Intangíveis

A situação destaca uma falha de mercado clássica: a dificuldade de precificar bens com alto valor subjetivo ou intangível. Os mercados operam sob a premissa de que os preços refletem um equilíbrio entre oferta e demanda. No entanto, em mercados como o de arte ou de colecionáveis, fatores intangíveis, como gosto pessoal, significado histórico e apego emocional, podem elevar os preços muito acima de seu valor intrínseco, demonstrando como elementos subjetivos podem perturbar os modelos tradicionais de precificação. Quando um bem carrega valor emocional ou relacionado à privacidade, os mecanismos tradicionais de precificação tornam-se inadequados. Isso ressalta os limites dos modelos econômicos ao explicar o comportamento humano quando fatores intangíveis estão envolvidos.

Normas Sociais e Culturais

Normas sociais e culturais também desempenham um papel fundamental na moldagem das decisões individuais. Em muitas culturas, compartilhar dados privados, como mensagens pessoais ou fotos, é visto como altamente invasivo. Consequentemente, mesmo ofertas financeiras substanciais falham em compensar a violação percebida da privacidade e da identidade. Em sociedades onde os smartphones representam uma extensão da identidade pessoal, o simples ato de entregar um dispositivo sem apagar seu conteúdo equivale a ultrapassar uma fronteira pessoal não declarada. Essa norma social reforça a ideia de que certos itens são simplesmente inegociáveis, independentemente do preço oferecido.

Implicações Políticas: Buscando um Equilíbrio

Decisões impulsionadas por valores intangíveis têm implicações significativas para políticas públicas e legislações. No campo da privacidade de dados, a dificuldade em quantificar o valor subjetivo da privacidade exige leis que ofereçam proteções mais amplas, além de meras penalidades financeiras. Por outro lado, quando regulamentações ignoram os valores intangíveis, muitas vezes falham em atingir seus objetivos pretendidos. Por exemplo, em alguns sistemas educacionais, como em partes dos Estados Unidos e da Europa, políticas permitem que professores confisquem os smartphones dos alunos durante as aulas. Embora bem-intencionadas, essas medidas frequentemente fracassam, pois ignoram o apego emocional dos alunos a seus dispositivos, levando a uma maior resistência e a conflitos em ambientes escolares já desafiadores.

Uma abordagem mais eficaz envolveria o desenvolvimento de políticas que reconheçam essas dimensões subjetivas. Em vez de impor proibições absolutas, as instituições educacionais poderiam promover o uso responsável e equilibrado dos smartphones. Da mesma forma, as leis de privacidade poderiam ser reforçadas para garantir maior controle sobre os dados pessoais, com penalidades severas para vazamentos de dados. Ao alinhar políticas com os valores intangíveis que os indivíduos atribuem aos ativos pessoais e digitais, governos e instituições podem fomentar maior conformidade e confiança.

Conclusão

O experimento social envolvendo ofertas de alto valor por smartphones ressalta a complexidade do comportamento humano em contextos que envolvem valores intangíveis. A recusa das pessoas em se desfazer de seus dispositivos, apesar de incentivos financeiros substanciais, destaca como as considerações subjetivas muitas vezes superam as avaliações objetivas. Esse insight é crucial tanto para a teoria econômica quanto para a política pública, enfatizando a necessidade de uma compreensão mais detalhada das motivações humanas. Em última análise, políticas eficazes e práticas de mercado devem levar em conta essas dimensões intangíveis para garantir um engajamento significativo e um impacto duradouro. Legisladores e instituições devem priorizar a compreensão desses fatores subjetivos ao projetar regulamentações, fomentando ambientes onde os valores intangíveis sejam respeitados e promovendo a confiança entre as partes interessadas.

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Ambiguity Aversion: The Science Behind Our Fear of the Unknown

The fear of the unknown often influences our decisions. This phenomenon, known as ambiguity aversion, describes our preference for known risks over uncertain outcomes. Understanding this phenomenon can help individuals and businesses make more informed decisions, ultimately leading to better results.

What is Ambiguity Aversion?

Ambiguity aversion is a cognitive bias where people prefer options with clear, known probabilities over those with unknown probabilities. This aversion to uncertainty can lead to more conservative decisions, even when the unknown option might offer better potential rewards.

Key characteristics:

Preference for Certainty: Individuals tend to choose options with predictable outcomes.

Risk vs. Uncertainty: While risk involves known probabilities, ambiguity involves unknown probabilities, which can cause discomfort and avoidance.

Several psychological theories explain why we fear the unknown:

Prospect Theory:

Developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, prospect theory suggests that people value potential losses more than equivalent gains, leading to a stronger aversion to uncertainty.

Ellsberg Paradox:

This thought experiment by Daniel Ellsberg demonstrates that people prefer bets with known probabilities over those with unknown probabilities, even when the expected outcome is the same. This highlights our discomfort with ambiguity.

Financial Decisions:

Investors often prefer safe, low-yield investments over potentially higher-reward but uncertain options like startups or cryptocurrencies.

Medical Choices:

Patients may opt for established treatments with known outcomes rather than experimental therapies, even if the latter offers a higher chance of success.

Consumer Behaviour:

Shoppers tend to choose familiar brands over new ones despite the potential benefits of trying something new.

Overcoming Ambiguity Aversion

Gather More Information:

Reducing uncertainty by obtaining more information about the options can help make more informed decisions.

Scenario Planning:

Considering different scenarios and their potential outcomes can prepare individuals for various possibilities, reducing the fear of the unknown.

Risk Education:

Educating oneself about risk and uncertainty can lead to more balanced decision-making.

Mindfulness Practices:

Techniques such as mindfulness can help individuals manage the anxiety associated with uncertainty.

Conclusion

Ambiguity aversion is a widespread cognitive bias that significantly affects our decision-making process. By understanding the science behind this fear and adopting effective strategies offered by companies like Newristics to manage it, we can make more informed and balanced choices. This cognitive awareness allows us to analyse situations more objectively and weigh the pros and cons of various options. Embracing uncertainty and learning how to navigate it can unlock new opportunities, drive innovation, and lead to greater success in both personal and professional areas of life.

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Noise: A Comprehensive Summary of Daniel Kahneman's Insights

Chapter 1 What's Noise by Daniel Kahneman

"Noise" by Daniel Kahneman is a book that explores the concept of randomness and inconsistency in decision-making and judgment. Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning psychologist, argues that people are often influenced by irrelevant factors, leading to mistakes and biases in their thinking. He highlights the importance of reducing "noise" in decision-making processes to improve overall performance and accuracy. The book offers practical insights and strategies for individuals and organizations to limit the impact of noise and make more rational decisions. Kahneman's work sheds light on the complexities of human cognition and behavior, offering valuable lessons for individuals seeking to navigate through a world filled with uncertainty and inconsistency.

Chapter 2 Noise by Daniel Kahneman Summary

In "Noise," Daniel Kahneman explores the concept of noise in decision-making processes and how it can lead to errors and inefficiencies. Noise refers to the variability in judgments or decisions that should be uniform, leading to inconsistent outcomes. This can happen when decision-makers are influenced by irrelevant factors or when there is no explicit standard for making choices.

Kahneman argues that noise is a systemic issue in organizations and that it can have serious consequences for individuals and societies. He suggests that reducing noise in decision-making can increase efficiency, accuracy, and fairness. To combat noise, Kahneman recommends implementing structured decision-making processes and using algorithms and technology to minimize variability in judgments.

Overall, "Noise" is a critical examination of the impact of noise on decision-making and the importance of reducing it to improve outcomes. Kahneman's insights will be valuable to anyone interested in understanding the psychology of decision-making and improving the quality of their own choices.

Chapter 3 Noise Author

Daniel Kahneman released the book "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment" in May 2021. He is a renowned psychologist and Nobel laureate known for his work in behavioral economics and decision-making.

Some of his other notable books include "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases," which he co-authored with Amos Tversky. "Thinking, Fast and Slow" is considered his most popular and influential work, receiving critical acclaim and winning numerous awards, including the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award.

In terms of editions, "Thinking, Fast and Slow" has been widely praised for its insights into human decision-making processes and has been translated into multiple languages. It remains one of Kahneman's most widely-read and cited works.

Chapter 4 Noise Meaning & Theme

Noise Meaning

In his book "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment," Daniel Kahneman explores the concept of noise in decision-making. Noise refers to the random variability in judgment that can lead to inconsistencies and errors in decision-making. Kahneman argues that while bias has been well-studied and understood, noise is an equally important and often overlooked factor that can have a significant impact on the quality of decisions.

Kahneman uses the term "noise" to emphasize the unpredictability and inconsistency that can occur in decision-making processes. He argues that when judges, experts, or decision-makers are confronted with the same information and asked to make a decision, the outcomes should ideally be the same. However, in reality, there is often significant variability in the decisions made, which can be attributed to noise.

The book explores various sources of noise, including individual differences in judgment, situational influences, and cognitive biases. Kahneman argues that noise can have serious consequences, leading to inefficiency, unfairness, and poor outcomes in decision-making processes. He suggests that organizations need to be more aware of the impact of noise and take steps to reduce it in order to improve the quality of their decisions.

Overall, "Noise" by Daniel Kahneman highlights the importance of understanding and addressing the concept of noise in decision-making. By recognizing and minimizing noise, organizations and individuals can make more consistent, accurate, and fair decisions.

Noise Theme

The theme of "Noise" by Daniel Kahneman revolves around the concept of randomness and inconsistency in decision-making. Kahneman highlights how noise, or variability in judgments and perceptions, can lead to errors, biases, and inefficiencies in a variety of contexts, including healthcare, criminal justice, and business.

Additionally, the book emphasizes the importance of reducing noise by implementing standardized processes, algorithms, and feedback mechanisms to enhance decision-making and improve outcomes. Kahneman argues that by acknowledging and addressing the presence of noise, individuals and organizations can achieve greater accuracy, consistency, and fairness in their decision-making processes.

Chapter 5 Quotes of Noise

Noise quotes as follows:

1. "The world makes much less sense than you think. The coherence comes mostly from the way your mind works."

2. "Noise is a major problem in making good decisions. It leads to inconsistencies and biases that can have serious consequences."

3. "Noise is the unwanted variability in judgments that should be identical."

4. "One of the biggest sources of noise is the human brain itself. Our minds are constantly creating patterns and shortcuts that can lead to errors in judgment."

5. "Noise can lead to unjust decisions, discrimination, and inefficiency. It is a serious problem that needs to be addressed."

6. "Noise is just as harmful as bias in decision making. It can lead to incorrect judgments and poor outcomes."

7. "Noise is a hidden and pervasive problem that affects all areas of our lives. It is important to be aware of its impact and take steps to reduce it."

8. "Noise can happen when two people who should be making the same judgment make different judgments. This can lead to inconsistencies and errors."

9. "Noise is a real and measurable problem that can have serious consequences. It is important to address it in order to make better decisions."

10. "We need to be aware of the noise in our decision-making processes and take steps to reduce it. Only then can we make more accurate and reliable judgments."

Chapter 6 Similar Books Like Noise

1. "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhigg - This book explores the science behind habits and how they can be changed to improve our lives.

2. "Atomic Habits" by James Clear - Similar to "The Power of Habit," this book delves into the power of small changes and habits to transform our lives.

3. "Mindset: The New Psychology of Success" by Carol S. Dweck - Dweck explores the concept of fixed versus growth mindsets and how our beliefs about our abilities can shape our success.

4. "Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance" by Angela Duckworth - Duckworth explores the importance of grit, or the combination of passion and perseverance, in achieving long-term success.

5. "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People" by Stephen R. Covey - This classic self-help book outlines seven habits that can help individuals become more effective in their personal and professional lives.

Book  bookey.app/book/noise

Quotes  bookey.app/quote-book/noise

Atomic Habit  bookey.app/atomic-habits

Mindset  bookey.app/book/mindset

Youtube  youtube.com/watch?v=0IcznbEUqgs

Amazon  amazon.com/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401

Goodreads  goodreads.com/book/show/55339408-noise

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