#also I do believe he’d make one hell of a Pred
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The turtles nomming Casey to comfort him, kid's been thru a lot
I HAVE TYPED THIS OUT THREE TIMES NOW TUMBLR SO HELP ME GOD-
Yes yes yes Anon I love how you think. I can totally see L/eo being the first one to offer, once he’s healed and all. So maybe he’s gained a soft spot for the kid. Sue him. From there it doesn’t take his brothers long at all to hop on the wagon, so to speak. Boom, 4 comfy sleeping bags for the boy
Poor poor Cas/ey, he’s just enjoying every moment he gets. You have to when it’s the only semblance of normal you have left. Definitely helps him handle the whole “my universe and family are gone forever” he’s dealing with. Someone hug this kid please
#soft vore#safe vore#j rambles#rott/mnt#CAS/EY JR MY BELOVED#SOMEONE GIVE THIS BOY A HUG OR EXTREME CUDDLES NOW#also I do believe he’d make one hell of a Pred#having grown up in the apocalypse as the son of Cassa/ndra Jon/es and all#because you can’t tell me she isn’t one hell of a pred herself#look at her
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Doodles featuring @twistedtummies2 ft. Usagi. Or as I like to call it… late night doodles to distract myself from how I’m being boiled alive in my apartment/hj (The boiler’s being garbage)
1. Not much to say other than it’s just based on a meme 😂 And I love Smitty’s confused face here
2 & 3
It’s super funny drawing Elias as dog images 😂 Especially with the second which I felt goes perfectly with that part in Chapter two of his introduction story. There is a third one that is still a w.i.p. But I might finish it. Btw…. At this point I’m basically gonna be known as the “Elias artist” aren’t I? 😂/lh
4. I was originally gonna do all of your Twisted ocs… but I need to at least try to sleep it’s like 3 AM 😭. Plus to me it’d be poetic for me since these four were the characters that were the most developed and I grew the most familiar with when I first discovered your page. With this I added how I drew their eyes… since I’m trying to practice with eye style variety. Technical details:
Nakoda: I’ve actually doodled him once in one of my sketchbooks before. And he was actually fairly easy to draw, I’ve had ocs that had similar hair to him before. And… I have plenty of ocs who are just as flirtatious as he is and have made the exact look I drew him with 😂
Billy: Other than Elias… he was the easiest to draw and figure out how he’d work in my style. I was at first worried about his hair since it was my first time drawing his kind of hairstyle and I’m not that used to drawing short hair. But it actually worked out. It also helped that he’s similar to one of my own giant ocs in terms of personality. Fun fact, to the point where I almost thought he had freckles… which is a trait on my oc… but he doesn’t so… 👌
Elias: Is it obvious who my favorite is 😭
Reno: ……I’m just gonna say it. His hair SUCKED to draw 😭😂 I don’t know if it’s because I’m tired… the heat was getting to me.. or what… but his hair was not working out. Like with Billy I’ve at least drawn hair similar to his in the past… with Reno it was like the first time I’ve ever drawn that hairstyle in general. Even now I’m still not that happy with it… even in the first doodle. Like bruh I just 🥲I know that’s probably just me being over critical of myself since this does count as fanart of someone’s ocs, not just that, but someone who I admire the work of, believe me my years of participating in Art Fight has familiarized me with that feeling but just….. don’t be an artist guys 😭/j. Maybe when I do the others I’ll redo him.
5. ….Usagi going through how I feel right now
Don’t know who’s next to her… could be any of the pred lads… Insert “Twisted Wonderland isn’t an Otome Game” joke here. Though I do think this could be an interesting Vore concept… being so hot and just done that even the idea of being in a warm stomach is just… “bruh can you not?” 😂. Btw… this is how Usagi acts when their in one of her moods… a lot more snappy, sarcastic, and blunt with their wording…. I wish your bois good luck with that. Also fact about Usagi is that they literally have trouble finding pjs their size since she’s a frail little thing.
Also fair warning to all the Vore enthusiasts.. it’s not necessarily a big kink for me, hell it’s why safe Vore is in the neutral section of my pinned post so in turn….. I don’t take it seriously. I very much make a lot more jokes and memes involving it.
6. To end things off… this
Death stare Usagi. Is not something to be messed with. They may be small… but they will bite and is legitimately terrifying sometimes.
Would like to know reactions to not even just Usagi, the Prefect in general making this face 😂
Anyways that’s all from me for tonight…. Or morning technically lol
Moon signing off… wish me luck in this heat. Art is hard
#not moon’s ocs#moon’s stuff for other people#moon’s ocs#moon’s shitty art#idk what else to put for tags I’m fairly new to this#Usagi.oc🐰🦐#update: to all reading this sorry if I come off as more passive aggressive than usual#I was going through it last night 😭#twistedtummies2#twisted wonderland
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NSFW Alphabet Heisenberg Headcanons
For obvious reasons, this contains smut and is for 18+ only readers. Again, I’m posting only my headcanons onto tumblr, both can be found on my AO3
A = Aftercare (What they’re like after sex)
Very grabby, has a tendency to be a little softer. Loves a good cuddle after sex, definitely praises you constantly. He loves to wash you down with a cloth, wiping away all of the cum, the sweat, the blood, the tears, as he murmurs soft words of praise and encouragement, pressing a small kiss here and there as he does so.
B = Body part (Their favourite body part of theirs and also their partner’s)
I’m not entirely sure if Heisenberg would like any part of his body - it's just a vessel to him I believe. I think his favourite part of himself would be his discount magneto powers because that gives him the ability to create so many new tools to play with when it comes to having sex with you, some even on the spot.
For you, he loves your hands. He sees them as soft and gentle and he loves the feel of them in his work-worn, rough hands as he pushes you down into the bed, or them cupping his face as you pepper his face with kisses, telling him what a good boy he’s being for you, or when their wrapped around his dick as you jerk him off in a way that has him melting against your back and rolling his hips up into your palm.
C = Cum (Anything to do with cum basically… I’m a disgusting person)
He loves cumming inside or on you, there is no way in hell he’d ever wear a condom. It’s a marking thing, he needs to make sure you know that you’re his. He doesn’t have a preference for where he cums, just as long as it’s somewhere on you. If you spit and not swallow, he thinks it’s a waste of his seed and gets huffy about it - he’d much rather see it across your face than down the sink.
He cums a lot and it’s ungodly thick as well.
D = Dirty Secret (Pretty self explanatory, a dirty secret of theirs)
He’s fucked a lycan, been fucked by a lycan, and he fucking loved it. Was tempted to fuck a soldat but that was a little too much for him.
E = Experience (How experienced are they? Do they know what they’re doing? )
I’d say pretty experience, if anything, he fucks the girls at the village mostly to spite and in an attempt piss off Miranda. He’d mellowed out about a decade before you met him, but definitely he’s had the time to gain quite a lot of experience.
F = Favourite Position (This goes without saying. Will probably include a visual)
Lotus, or any position where you’re on top of him. He enjoys grinding up into you and watching you come undone on top of him, but also means it's easier for him to grab at different parts of you - this goes for eating out too, he loves it when you sit on his face and ride him to completion. Loves mating press too, when he’s feeling particularly primal.
G = Goofy (Are they more serious in the moment, or are they humorous, etc)
By ‘goofy’ for H, I more think of sadomasochism or teasing you when you cum so hard you can’t see straight. I think he’d crack a few jokes here and there to make you laugh and you’d definitely have fun but for the most part, I think he’s more all about getting you riled up until you’re a trembling, begging mess.
H = Hair (How well groomed are they, does the carpet match the drapes, etc.)
He is a hairy, hairy man who doesn’t give a shit about his grooming - he would have a thick and large amount of pubes that are wiry just like his beard. If you asked, he’d probably tame it down a little, but if you don’t care, it wouldn’t even cross his mind.
I = Intimacy (How are they during the moment, romantic aspect…)
Only after leaving the village will he 100% let his guard down to be intimate during sex I think. There would be a lot of praise and stuff whilst you’re at the village, but it doesn’t really become too intimate until after everything has washed over. I fully believe the first time he says ‘I love you’ was in German and whilst you two were having possibly the most intimate round of sex you’d ever had in your life the first night after your escape from the village. After sex is usually where he’s the most intimate - where he will murmur softly against your skin about how good you are to him and how he adores you and can’t believe that you’re in his life.
J = Jack Off (Masturbation headcanon)
I feel like he’d jack off quite frequently before you were around and even then, it probably doesn’t change much once you’re there. If he has no time for sex with you and it’s literally just an urge to deal with so he can concentrate on his work? Then yeah, he’ll pull out his dick and stroke himself off as he continues to work without a care in the world. It’s just to clear his mind so he can focus on the task at hand, to him it's no different than eating or sleeping. Just something he has to do to get by.
K = Kink (One or more of their kinks)
It’d be a lot easier to list the kinks he doesn’t have - shit, vomit and death. Beyond that, anything else is on the tables. His favourites would definitely include pred/prey, bondage, overstim, bloodplay, watersports, knife play, choking, cumplay/breeding kink, cockwarming, exhibitionism/voyeurism and marking/biting. He does have a preference for an active and willing partner, that being said CNC is also something he would enjoy as long as it was clear that both parties wanted it prior to the scene being played out.
L = Location (Favourite places to do the do)
Loves fucking at his desk - cockwarming especially. Loves cockwarming during inappropriate times too, like during family meetings. Or fucking you at Lady D’s house, edging you on and reminding you not to make a sound whilst making it impossible for you not to moan or scream his name. Anywhere and everywhere is an option for Heisenberg, but the riskier it is, the more he seems to love it.
M = Motivation (What turns them on, gets them going)
Literally, anything and everything. A breeze hitting him the right way will get him horny. You could be walking past in sweatpants and a baggy jumper and he will want you bent over the bench with his dick railing into you. It doesn’t take much, the man ain’t fussy.
N = NO (Something they wouldn’t do, turn offs)
Killing someone during sex would be a big turn off. Involving any talk of Miranda or Lady D would also be off limits.
O = Oral (Preference in giving or receiving, skill, etc)
Doesn’t really have a preference. Is a master at getting you off with his mouth and will gladly spend hours dedicated to mapping you out and causing you to cum again and again with his just tongue. By the time he’s finished with you, you won’t be able to walk and you definitely will have a number of bruises and bite marks against your thighs as well as a pretty decent beard burn going on. His favourite thing to do once he’s pulled away is to put his cold hands against your thighs specifically where his beard burn is, just to feel you squirm and attempt to kick him away.
Receiving - he loves throat fucking you, or having you kneel under his workbench, tied up nice and tight, with his dick resting heavy on your tongue as he works, occasionally reaching down to stroke your hair, scratch at your scalp or fucking his hips up into you so you don’t get too cozy down there. Your jaw and throat always aches afterwards and he loves hearing how hoarse he’s made your voice - he will always have a drink waiting for you afterwards, but first he needs to hear how well he’s fucked your voice out.
P = Pace (Are they fast and rough? Slow and sensual? etc.)
It’ll depend on the mood - definitely after leaving the village there is more of an opportunity for Heisenberg to reach a more romantic, slow and sensual pace (although it definitely happened whilst in the village, it was just rare as often Heisenberg used sex as a stress release as well as a way to feel like he’s achieved something or made someone proud), but his more natural pace will always be fast, deep and on the rougher side.
Q = Quickie (Their opinions on quickies rather than proper sex, how often, etc.)
Good way to scratch an itch and was, for a good portion at the beginning of your relationship, the only way you’d have sex as the only reason you were having sex was to scratch an itch or for stress relief. As time went on, things changed and although ‘proper’ sex and longer sessions became the norm (especially because he loved to dedicate the time to map out every inch of your body and see exactly what makes you tick), he still loves a good quickie during the day.
R = Risk (Are they game to experiment, do they take risks, etc.)
He will try anything once, after all it’s how you figure out if you like something or not! In terms of risks, if it's a risk of getting caught, he is more than happy to take it. If it's a risk to your safety? Not on his life.
S = Stamina (How many rounds can they go for, how long do they last…)
It doesn’t take long for Heisenberg to recover - unless you’re having a quickie, you best be ready for multiple rounds. Even if he can’t get it up, he will plaster his mouth between your thighs until your voice is hoarse and you’re squirming and weakly tugging at his hair in a vain attempt to pull him away. He loves feeling your strength pull away with each orgasm, seeing how weak and tired you become because of him. He’d never go too fair without prior warning, and if you safe-word out he will pull away instantly and be straight into aftercare mode. As for how long he lasts…..it really does depend on the situation, but if you have enough time and are in an environment where he feels safe, who knows how long he’d last. You have sat in his lap, cock buried deep inside of you for the entirety of many a family meeting, having to hide the fact that he was hard and throbbing inside of you. So, you know for a fact, he can last that long under stressful situations.
T = Toy (Do they own toys? Do they use them? On a partner or themselves?)
He’d make his own and have a little collection. He’d definitely think of something whilst working on his metal army, make it and instantly turn to find you to test them out. If it’s something a bit more intense, he’ll test it on himself first before seeking you out.
U = Unfair (how much they like to tease)
He loves to tease you and keep you on edge of your first orgasm, making it out that he’s close to making you scream only to pull back and watch you pout, beg or even scream in frustration. His favourite place to tease you, though, is in a place where you can’t protest or beg, where you need to be silent or keep whatever you’re doing a secret. That’s definitely when the worst of his teasing will come out.
V = Volume (How loud they are, what sounds they make)
It will depend on the situation (see wild card for submissive!H), but usually? He wants to drink in the sounds he has you make - he’s all short grunt and growls and soft murmurs of praise against your skin and dark promises that merge seamlessly with general dirty talk with small groans and moans peppered throughout. If he’s had an awful day, however? He’s much louder, much more aggressive. He needs to fuck his emotions out - and this is definately when his pred/prey kink comes into full swing. He will chase you throughout the village, throughout his factory, wherever he can, and is nothing but growls and snarls, every sound coming from his throat animalistic. He also bites a lot more too, claiming you as his, and it’s the only time that his sounds are muffled slightly.
W = Wild Card (Get a random headcanon for the character of your choice)
If you get him worked up enough if you get the chance to dom him (he will sub for a selected few), he will always end up babbling out his begs in German. If you ask nice enough, he may order you around in German or Romanian, but the only time it naturally comes out is when he’s so far gone into subspace, so needy and desperate, that it’s just natural for him to speak his first language. In general, if you get him to sub for you, he will not shut the fuck up - all moans and whimpers and broken groans, small promises to be good for you if you would just touch him already . Bratty sub for sure, definitely into pet play. Will only ever be able to handle a gentle dom for obvious reasons, and has a major, major, major praise kink, both giving and receiving but get this boy into subspace and praise him and just watch him whine and squirm and ask for more. If he’s misbehaving at home and you jokingly say ‘behave pup’, he will get flustered so quickly.
X = X-Ray (Let’s see what’s going on in those pants, picture or words)
Body wise, he is quite muscular but has a nice layer of fat to soften things out - it actually surprises you how strong he is from brute strength alone because he definitely doesn’t look it at first glance.
Cock wise - he’s more thick than he is long, average length but with a good amount of girth that has you feeling that stretch for hours afterwards.
Y = Yearning (How high is their sex drive?)
I’d say pretty high, but he is also good at distracting himself from it? During his tenure at the village, he’s so focused on escaping that it looks like his sex drive is low to normal. But the moment you get out of the village? Have your own place where it’s safe and no one is there to stop you? All bets are off, he cannot keep his hands off of you. Half of it is catching up for lost time, half of it is just the fact that the man is permanently horny.
Z = ZZZ (… how quickly they fall asleep afterwards)
When domming: He doesn’t fall asleep often, but he will doze or rest his eyes for a second and enjoy the afterglow. He won’t leave to go back to work until you’ve fully conked out though, unless something desperately pressing comes up and he has to go. He’d rather spend this small amount of quality time with you and making sure you’re okay before leaving you alone and even when he does leave when you’re asleep, he has his eyes on his monitor with a live feed of you sleeping, just in case something goes wrong and you need him.
After subbing: He usually passes out pretty quickly. Subbing takes a lot more energy out of him than domming does, so once he’s cleaned up and has received his dose of praise and love, he usually falls asleep with his head in your lap, on your tummy or on your chest. He can’t wake up alone after a sub scene, even the very idea of it freaks him out, so you better make sure you have something to do as he naps because once he’s out, he’s asleep for hours.
#toby writes#fanfiction#toby's writing#fanfic#angelicspaceprince#bd/sm dynamics#karl heisenberg x reader#karl heisenberg/reader#karl heisenberg#ns/fw headcanons#resident evil 8#resident evil village
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Eijirou Kirishima
Vore Potential:
Completely Consume Me | Fucking Devour Me | Swallow Me Whole | Eat me | No Thanks | Who? | God No | Maybe a Snack | Pretty Tasty | Enjoyable Meal | Absolutely Delicious | Hungry Now! | FEED ME
It is no surprise to anyone that Kirishima is one of my all time favs of the bunch and for several reasons. He’s a canonical glutton who LOVES meat and anytime we see him eating, he’s literally just CHOMPING away with those perfect fangs of his. On top of that and his appearance and quirk, he’s simultaneously boastful and bombastic yet really friendly and supportive of all his friends and strangers. He’s just the freakin’ best and a manly man’s man to boot!
Soooo of course my sinful mind goes straight to VORE NOW. ‘XD
Fair’s fair though, in the Fantasy AU, Kirishima can turn into a freakin’ dragon, so it ain’t like it’s outta the cards. I imagine that version probably HAS eaten some bad guys (but almost certainly let them out when Bakugou wasn’t looking and pleaded with them to be nice from now on XP).
Kirishima’s a perfect “protective pred,” in more ways than most preds. His quirk allows his stomach lining to harden, which makes his gut rock hard but also assures his stomach acids won’t harm whoever he eats. So if he’s gotta get someone out of a tight jam, his belly makes for a perfect “safe zone” until he can get them outta dodge. At the same time, he’d also work great as a “jail cell” pred too; the type who swallows a very dangerous pred and withstands their fury within his stomach because his quirk allows him to endure some serious punishment. Their struggles could cause some indigestion but worst case scenario, it’ll just make Kirishima let out some GNARLY burps while he slaps his gut firmly and warns them that his belly is made of much stronger stuff than that.
I can also see him being a willing, albeit CONFUSED pred for someone into that sorta thing and coaxing him into eating them. He’s someone I headcanon to be very oblivious of kinks, so he indulges them unwittingly and just goes along with stuff, even if it sounds weird to him because, again, he’s a freakin’ sweetheart. If his willing prey asks him to press them against his bare belly, he won’t question it. He’ll think it’s odd, but he’ll do it. If they ask him to burp for them, he’ll grin cockily and let out a HUGE belch before smacking his lips and patting his belly with pride, saying, “HA! Now was THAT manly or what? >:D ....Why’s yer face all’uh the sudden? : l “
All of that said, believe it or not, I also think Kirishima makes for great prey too. He’s someone whose quirk allows him to withstand stomach acids for a long period of time, and his close-range fighting style means he will BATTER THE HELL outta the bell of whoever dared to swallow him. Unless it’s willing, in which case, he’ll happily let his friend eat him and quirk up to see how long he can hold out, fully trusting his pals to keep him safe without question.
Have I mentioned how much I love this manly boi yet? ‘XD
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20 Fantasy Hockey Thoughts
Every Sunday, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".
Writers: Michael Clifford, Ian Gooding, Cam Robinson, and Dobber
1. It was just a year ago I was saying that Joe Pavelski was overvalued. Now, I think he’s undervalued. Crazy the difference a year can make. If Joe Thornton can be anywhere near as healthy and productive as he was a couple years ago before the knee injuries cropped up, Pavelski has 25 goals and 35 assists locked up. He probably does even if Thornton isn’t healthy thanks to the additions of Evander Kane and Erik Karlsson. Pavelski adds loads of hits and shots, which is why he’s valuable for me. (sep14)
2. Check out Mike Clifford’s piece on the fantasy impact of the Erik Karlsson deal for both teams. From the Ottawa side, I’ll agree with Mike that I don’t think this deal itself helps anyone outside of Thomas Chabot, although another injury will help another player heading to Ottawa. More on that below.
Chabot might end up with a plus-minus of about minus-100 playing for a dreadful Ottawa team (yes, I’m exaggerating on that number but you get the idea). The Senators lack veteran d-men that can take on the tough minutes. But I believe the Karlsson trade adds about 5-10 points to his projected point total and 3-4 minutes of ice time per game while vaulting him onto the first power-play unit. Whether he’s ready or not, he’ll be jumping head first into the water this season. He should already be owned in keeper leagues, while he’s worth drafting in the later rounds in single-season leagues.
Meanwhile, the Jean-Gabriel Pageau injury (out six months with a torn Achilles) likely moves Chris Tierney up to the second line. Tierney was a bottom-six forward for the Sharks but he’ll be leaned on heavily and seems a good bet that he’ll start the season on the second line, although Colin White could work his way up into that role. Drake Batherson’s changes of making the Senators should also improve because of this injury. All three forwards’ fantasy values improve with the injury news, as Pageau could be out all season. (sep16)
3. So, who gets the lion share of the goalie starts in Colorado this season? It’s a question every poolie with a pulse has been muttering to themselves this summer. After trading for long-time Caps’ backup, Philipp Grubauer, the Avalanche have put another question mark next to Semyon Varlamov’s name. The Russian netminder has refused to stay healthy and/or consistent. He’s a volatile fantasy asset that few chase.
At this point, they’ll probably give Varly the opening night gig if both play reasonably well in preseason. Then it’ll be all about the hot hand. If one goes on a long enough roll, they’ll build up some goodwill with the coaching staff and likely gain a longer leash. Grubauer is my pick to finish with more starts but nothing is certain in the world of goaltenders – especially ones who haven’t ever been given the ball on a long-term basis. (sep15)
4. Mitch Marner is on the precipice of being an elite playmaker and a superstar in this league. The issue is that he doesn’t provide much in hits and isn’t a huge shot volume guy. He does shoot a fair amount but not to the level of guys like David Pastrnak or Rickard Rakell. I have him projected for 75 points but without huge shot volume or hits, he’ll be hard-pressed to return third-round value. (sep14)
5. Let’s get this out of the way: Nikolaj Ehlers is truly one of my favourite players to watch in the league. If he picks up the puck in his zone and gets up to full speed, there’s almost no one more fun. That said, like Marner, he doesn’t hit much. He also doesn’t get top power play minutes, which caps his upside significantly. In order for a player who doesn’t post big hit totals to return near a top-75 pick, he needs either A) a healthy amount of PPPs, or B) a healthy plus/minus. I’m not relying on plus-minus to return value on an early-round pick. (sep14)
6. All summer I’ve been saying that Vladimir Tarasenko will be undervalued going into 2018-19 and it appears this is the case. The underlying issue, of course, is whether his shoulder is completely healthy following surgery in April. Think of it this way: last year was a down year for Tarasenko, I think most people would agree on that. In standard Yahoo! setups, he was still a top-30 player. If you can draft him in the late second or early third round, do it. (sep14)
7. I want to discuss this year’s rookie crop. I’m not going to discuss every rookie, or even most rookies; you should grab the Dobber Prospects Report if you want a more detailed look at hundreds of players. Instead, I want to look at a handful of players who will be considered in drafts.
Back in July, I wrote about why I won’t be drafting Rasmus Dahlin this year. Let’s get into that. The first question is, will Dahlin get top PP minutes? We can assume that Buffalo will be running a four-forward again this year, so the question is if he will push Rasmus Ristolainen out of the way. Ristolainen is fifth among all defensemen in power play points over the last three seasons, ahead of names like Torey Krug, PK Subban, Drew Doughty, John Klingberg, and John Carlson. Say what you will of Ristolainen as a player in every other facet, he’s been the go-to for years on the PP blue line for the Sabres, and he’s been effective at doing so – Buffalo is eighth in PP goals over those three seasons, two goals fewer than San Jose and three goals more than Dallas, and seventh in PP percentage. Does that suddenly change this year? Why would it?
I’m working with the assumption that Dahlin, barring injury, will not supplant Ristolainen on the power play this year. So, if he’s not on the top PP unit, maybe he’ll have a season like Mikhail Sergachev, right? Well, Tampa Bay scored 3.15 goals per 60 minutes at even strength last year. Buffalo scored 2.03. That’s 75 fewer goals. Sergachev registered a point on 11.1 percent of all of Tampa’s even-strength goals. If Buffalo’s scoring doesn’t improve, to get to 24 even-strength points like Sergachev, Dahlin would have to register a point on 17.1 percent of Buffalo’s even-strength goals. For reference, Victor Hedman registered a point on 16.3 percent of Tampa Bay’s even-strength goals. You see how silly this is getting.
So, what if Buffalo’s scoring does improve? If the team scored 25 percent more goals at even strength, which is a huge leap, they’d still be bottom-10 in scoring if the league’s scoring remains constant. *If* the scoring jumps 25 percent at even strength, do you really want to draft an 18-year old defenseman with limited PP minutes from a bottom-10 scoring team?
I’m sorry, I just don’t see it. He may be the next Erik Karlsson, but to pay off his average draft position (ADP) right now (106) in standard Yahoo! leagues, assuming he doesn’t put up triple-digit hits, he’ll need a season like Alex Pietrangelo had last year. If he does put up triple-digit hits, he’ll need a season like Kris Letang had last year. This is all absurd. More rookies here … (sep13)
8. Elsewhere, a popular pick to be in the Calder contention as Rookie of the Year this season is Eeli Tolvanen. We’ve all heard about his exploits last season in the KHL. Hell, I dedicated a weekly space at the end of my DobberProspects’ Ramblings to shine a light on the bushel of goals he’d racked up over that stretch. However, his place in the Predators’ roster remains unclear.
No one is going to be pushing Filip Forsberg out of the top left-wing spot. He, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson are a package until something fundamentally stops working. That leaves Tolvanen to battle it out with Kevin Fiala for the right to slide in beside Kyle Turris on the second line. Turris and Fiala formed a nice secondary wave of offense in Nashville last season. They both provide the strong two-way ability that Tolvanen still lacks. Fiala has been building the long way and his 23-goals a year ago could be just the tip of the iceberg.
If Tolvanen is unable to secure a spot in the top-six, his outlook from the third line and second power-play unit should be muted. As mentioned earlier, the Preds have enough talent to spread between two man-advantage units. The 2017 first rounder's release will be the focal point on the left circle, while Ryan Ellis’ blast will work the right side. That should be able to bump his numbers up but expecting much more than 40 points may be asking for trouble. (sep15)
9. Connor Murphy’s injury (out eight weeks with a back injury) improves the chances that 2017 first-round pick Henri Jokiharju makes the Blackhawks defense corps out of training camp. Keep in mind that Gustav Forsling is also expected to miss the start of the season with a wrist injury. Jokiharju scored 71 points in 63 games last season for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. (sep16)
10. We finally know more about Corey Crawford’s injury, and the news isn’t good. Crawford has been sidelined with a concussion and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for the start of the season. This isn’t good news for fantasy hockey owners who drafted him at a discount hoping that his ability would outperform his draft ranking, which had already fallen with the speculation that he still hadn’t recovered from a concussion. Crawford was having an impressive season (16-9-2, 2.27 GAA, .929 SV%), so this also isn’t good news for the Blackhawks’ playoff chances.
Cam Ward is worth taking a flier on in the later rounds of your draft but how effective will he be? Ward hasn’t had a save percentage above .910 over his past six seasons, so your expectations shouldn’t be high. This included a .906 save percentage in 43 games last season, which came in spite of the Canes allowing the fewest number of shots per game (28.9) of any team. The Hawks were a top-10 team in terms of shots allowed in 2017-18. With a defense that is led by the aging Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Ward will be in tough for improved numbers with his new team. (sep16)
11. The ‘Adam McQuaid to the Rangers for defenseman Steven Kampfer’ trade hurts Anthony DeAngelo’s fantasy value. I had traded DeAngelo away from my keeper team last season and that owner has since dropped him. It might still be too early to give up on him, since he’s only 23 as of next month and still possesses considerable upside from the blueline, but the former first-round pick is running the risk of disappearing down the same path as Derrick Pouliot. There’s considerable fantasy upside, but I can stand behind you replacing him if you can’t hold your breath much longer.
The Bruins are already used to life without McQuaid, as he missed half of last season. Considering that McQuaid didn’t play any kind of offensive role and neither should Kampfer, the move will probably only affect bottom-pairing defensemen. Jakub Zboril’s and Jeremy Lauzon’s chances of making the Bruins could improve slightly here, but without McQuaid the Bruins still have seven NHL-level defensemen on the roster (eight if you include depth defenseman Kampfer).
12. Mathew Barzal finished 2017-18 as the 60th overall player. He did that with 85 points. He’s currently being drafted in Yahoo! pools inside the top-50. I think Barzal is a great player but banking on a 90-point season with at least a break-even plus-minus just to return value is a lot. (sep11)
13. That Max Pacioretty would be traded was only a matter of if, not when, so the return was all that mattered. Pacioretty was shipped to Vegas for Tomas Tatar, a second-round pick, and prospect Nick Suzuki. Dobber had a pretty accurate take on the trade’s fantasy impact and most of his thoughts mirror my own.
I don’t have too much to add on top of what Dobber wrote other than this: Pacioretty was due to rebound regardless. For the last several years, Pacioretty was a top-end scorer and one of the most consistent ones at that; from 2011-17, Pacioretty and Alex Ovechkin were the only two players to score at least 30 goals in every 82-game season. The Habs’ captain had one bad season and now he’s gone. With the trade and subsequent extension (four years, $28-million), Pacioretty gets essentially a fresh start and a good situation in which to re-establish himself as one of the elite goal scorers in the league. (sep11)
14. I think the Pacioretty trade helps Tatar. Vegas might have accomplished something in dumping his $4.8 million contract but he’s scored at least 20 goals in each of his last four seasons. He might have been a healthy scratch for a good portion of the playoffs but he easily fits on the second line in Montreal and could even move onto the first line. On a better team, Tatar won’t ever see the first line. But ,the Habs had the league’s 29th-ranked offense last season (2.52 goals per game) and just traded a consistent (until last season) 30-goal scorer. Simply put, they don’t have a whole ton of options. (sep12)
15. Still with the Pacioretty trade, this does give the Habs the potential to run Jesperi Kotkaniemi-Suzuki-Ryan Poehling down the middle in the not-too-distant future, and that’s if Jonathan Drouin doesn’t work out as a center. This team went from desperately needing help down the middle to having three prospects that could all project as middle-six centers, plus Drouin (who should be on the wing anyway).
The issue here is that none of Kotkaniemi, Suzuki and Poehling are what we would deem as a generational center. A sure thing. A lock like Jack Eichel or Auston Matthews. Sure, Kotkaniemi could be the next Pierre-Luc Dubois, or he could be the next Tyson Jost. Suzuki could be the next Clayton Keller, or he could be the next Luke Kunin. Each of those four pivots mentioned were taken in the top half of the 2016 draft. Kunin was injured last year but the fact remains the same: the future is still uncertain for each of the next generation of Montreal centers. They’re lottery tickets, and for this team to be good in 2-3 years, they need at least 2-3 of them to pay off in a big way.
The trade should also lock Artturi Lehkonen to the top PP unit for Montreal. With the former captain around, Lehkonen looked to be on the outside looking in. But now, they can run the top unit with Brendan Gallagher in front, Max Domi in the bumper, Drouin on one half-wall and Lehkonen on the other, or something along those lines. The PP unit needs a trigger-man now and Lehkonen is best-suited for that role. They could also just replace Pacioretty with Tatar, in which case I will be one sad panda. (sep11)
16. Reader Rocky asks: “What is justin faulks value going forward. Getting hamilton, still have slavin, fleury/pesce getting better, jake beans coming?”
I have never been a fan of Justin Faulk and was really turned off from him last year. Getting Dougie Hamilton makes it even worse. I wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot pole right now. If he gets traded then, he may have a resurgence for a couple of years. But I don’t trust him long-term and I don’t trust him with Carolina.
As for Jake Bean, he concerns me. Not only because his production went backwards last year despite being a man playing against teens, but also because of what analyst Jeff Marek said a few months back on his podcast about a certain recent first-round pick in junior hockey who was so addicted to video games that his GM didn’t think he would ever be an NHLer. When you look at all the prospects and the given criteria, you come up with four names that fit that mysterious description and Bean is one of them. I am not saying he is the prospect who loves his video games, I am just stating that he is one of four or perhaps five candidates who fit the described player speculated by Marek. That alone isn't enough to sway me but his production going backwards a bit in conjunction with that risk and frankly I just won't bother. (sep10)
17. Jack Eichel can be a 100-point player. He’s in that small club. And yes, the Sabres will get better, but he won’t even need them to as he can do it on his own. But what seem to potentially hold him down are all the injuries. If he can’t shake those he may never hit it. Not this year, though, let’s wait until he’s 24 or 25 and has a couple of 75- to 80-game seasons under his belt. (sep10)
18. Reader Tyler Bryant asks: “Best goalie call-ups for coming season are?”
Goalies who won’t make the team as the backup but would get called up if the starter or possibly both NHL goalies get hurt. The best one – Ville Husso. He won't be the backup but if Jake Allen gets hurt or crashes and burns, I can see Husso saving the day. He's the guy I'm targeting in the minors over anyone I listed above. He's in a promising spot right now.
Also: Carter Hart, Ilya Samsonov and Tristan Jarry. Further down the line are Eric Comrie and Thatcher Demko. Dark horse is Callum Booth, who would of course require both Petr Mrazek and Scott Darling to get injured – don’t be swayed by Booth’s weak numbers last year. The goalies who need injuries to both the starter and backup in order to get a real shot though are Husso, Hart, Demko and Booth. The others I listed will get that opportunity with just the one injury to the main guy. (sep10)
19. I have my Calder picks in the Fantasy Guide – the top 50. And if you look past the obvious ones in Rasmus Dahlin, Henrik Borgstrom, Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Sikura, Andrei Svechnikov and Elias Pettersson, you have to rely on opportunity. If Player A gets hurt for 30 games, then Rookie B gets a shot and suddenly is in the Calder mix. I don’t think there will be any Yanni Gourdes this time around. I could list talented 19- and 20-year-olds all day long who ‘could’ make a splash, from Kailer Yamamoto to Eeli Tolvanen to Martin Necas. But, I think what you’re after are the older prospects. So for that I am eyeballing Valentin Zykov, Andreas Johnsson, Antti Suomela, Dominik Kahun (Chicago, a team desperate for wingers), and even Zach Aston-Reese. (sep10)
20. Reader Jeff Libonati asks: “do you think ekblad will put together a season worthy of his pedigree? is he going to turn into the next Pietrangelo?”
Yes, Aaron Ekblad will eventually put together a monster two-way season. No, I don’t think he has Alex Pietrangelo potential. Ekblad is a lesser Pietrangelo. From a points standpoint, I would say subtract 10 from AP to get AE. In fact, in terms of pure offensive talent for points, I think Mike Matheson is the future in Florida. I say this even though Matheson is getting minimal PP time and is being held back. He’ll break through that, give him two or three years, the talent will win out. (sep10)
Have a good week, folks!!
from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts-41/
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Puck Daddy Bag of Mail: Leafs vs. Oilers, underpaid Sidney Crosby
Hey everyone, with the NCAA season over, it’s time to roll out a new feature for the summer. It’s a mailbag column. People love those.
If you have a question you want answered in the future, you can email me or get at me on Twitter. I’ll usually write this on Mondays so get your questions to me over the weekend and that kind of thing and we’ll take care of it no problem (as long as it’s in some way good).
Without further ado, let’s just get into it.
Jarrod Lassiter asks: “Would you take Leafs’ or Oilers’ roster right now moving forward? And those have to be the two teams set up best for the near future, right?”
Germane to yesterday’s What We Learned about how the Leafs are about to become a colossus, this is a great question.
On the one hand, Connor McDavid (probably the best player alive already), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (an elite No. 2 center who would be a solid No. 1 on most teams in the league) and Leon Draisaitl (a promising running buddy for McDavid) backed by a very good coach, a solid group of veterans, an above-average goalie, and a relatively smart GM.
On the other, Auston Matthews (already verging on being an elite center), a strong D-corps that really only lacks a true No. 1, a solid goalie, the best coach alive, a smart front office, and a slew of talented U-24 players who have already begun to populate the NHL roster.
You can’t go wrong choosing either of them, but I think I have to lean toward the Leafs here. McDavid is transcendent, but after that the Oilers’ roster thins out up front in a way Toronto’s simply doesn’t. While you may say McDavid makes up the difference himself — and hell, you might be right — I’ll take the better depth plus Matthews over McDavid, marginally.
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Where things really separate the Leafs is on defense. If your D-corps going forward is Rielly/Gardiner/Zaitsev/Carrick (all of them under 26) and two other guys, you’re in very good shape before you add anyone else, which the Leafs kinda have the ammo to do if they want to go shopping on the trade market. And I don’t dislike the Oilers D by any stretch, but I gotta give the edge to Toronto here, in a big way. I just think that’s a very good young group.
I also trust Babcock to make a bigger difference than McLellan, and Toronto to not-screw-up a few veteran contracts like Chiarelli has throughout his career.
Right now they’re probably about equivalent in terms of quality, but the Leafs are going to pull away.
Dan Michaelson asks: “What’s going on with Minnesota? Is it the lack of elite players, bad shooting percentage in the playoffs, St. Louis playing really well?”
The problem with Minnesota is both of the first two things you referenced, absolutely.
To be truly competitive in the playoffs, you need to have at least one or two guys who are at least close to being top-10 at their positions. Dubnyk probably qualifies among goaltenders, but he’s on an awful run lately (perhaps due to overuse in the last two seasons?), and I don’t see any outfield players I’d say are all that close. At least, not any more.
Mikael Granlund led the team in scoring this year on the right wing, and that’s all well and good, but is he a top-10 right wing if he’s not shooting almost 15 percent for the season? You can ask similar questions about Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker, and Mikko Koivu, all of whom were north of 11 percent this season.
(Not that anyone would mistake one of those guys for being top-10 at their position, but the Wild shot the lights out this season, is the point. That they’re shooting this poorly now is obviously surprising, but they probably weren’t going to hit the regular-season levels they enjoyed, either.)
And on defense, well, I like Jared Spurgeon a lot, but he’s not a high-level difference-maker. You can probably argue Ryan Suter was, but he’s not any more.
So that’s obviously a huge issue.
The other one, obviously, is that Jake Allen is on some kind of bender, and has been for quite a while. When you give up three goals on 117 shots over almost 200 minutes, you’re going to make your opponent look very, very bad.
The Wild haven’t been as bad as all that (they’re currently minus-a-billion in expected goals versus actual goals) but I was never a big believer in their ability to go deep.
Along similar lines:
David Corica asks: “If both Chicago and Minnesota choke in the first round, who becomes the favorite to make it out of the West?
It’s gotta be Nashville, right? The problem with the West this year is that everyone has glaring holes. If we’re assuming St. Louis and Nashville are through to the next round already, that leaves us with Anaheim, Calgary, Edmonton, and San Jose to consider.
The Sharks are older and banged-up.
The Oilers are a little thin but powered by one incredible line (with all due respect to Zack Kassian having the best performances of his life in Games 2 and 3).
The Flames can’t stop taking dumbass penalties.
The Ducks have a great D corps but an average forwards, even with Getzlaf somehow still racking up a million assists.
The Blues are getting beat on the ice by the Wild, but bailed out by a guy who looks like an average goalie.
The Predators likewise have goaltending issues and that forward group is pretty uninspiring.
Not to cop out here, but even if we say Chicago or Minnesota don’t blow it, the West is wide open.
I picked Chicago to go to the Cup Final (and lose to Washington) but I agonized over picking them or the Preds to even come out of the first round. I felt like it was a coin flip, and I went with the goalie I trusted more. At this point, though, you gotta say its the Preds’ series to lose. But again, they still might. So right now, here’s my ranking of the teams most likely to advance out of the West.
Nashville
Edmonton
Anaheim
St. Louis
San Jose
Calgary
Chicago
Minnesota
@R_6509 asks: “Sidney Crosby makes $8.7 mil a year, but he’s gotta be one of the most criminally underpaid players in the league relative to the number of bums making 6-7 mil….?”
Well, this isn’t really a question, but the point is well taken. Yes, Sidney Crosby is incredibly underpaid in terms of the value he provides to the Penguins, on a number of fronts.
Even ignoring the guys in the $6-7 million range, obviously Crosby at $8.7 million looks like a steal compared to the other six forwards making north of $8.5 million. Corey Perry makes $75,000 less per year than Crosby. Evgeni Malkin and Alex Ovechkin both make about $800,000 more. Anze Kopitar? Jonathan Toews? Both north of $10 million. Same is true of Patrick Kane, but at least he’s scoring like he wants to earn it.
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Moreover, he makes everyone around him more valuable, by a lot. Jake Guentzel and Conor Sheary make a combined $1.4 million or so. Both were in the top 32 in the league in terms of cost per point, and Guentzel would certainly be higher if he’d played with Crosby all year. Sheary’s fifth (just under $12,600 per point) behind only McDavid, Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, and Leon Draisaitl.
Crosby makes just about anyone play like $4 million-plus players, straightaway.
It’s nice to be roughly middle-of-the-pack in the entire NHL in terms of dollars per point (even leaving aside his defensive prowess, which is incredibly underrated) when you’re one of the highest-paid players alive. But when you can deliver additional value by helping your just-okay linemates into the 95th percentile, that’s unbelievable.
Erik Naught asks: “That one guy on our team who everyone agrees obviously sucks, surely they have a farmhand who’s way better right? Why don’t they use him?”
Most coaches play favorites. They’ll slot in guys who aren’t good simply because they’re comfortable with their levels of not-goodness versus what the lesser-known quantities farmhands provide. You see it with Alain Vigneault playing Tanner Glass over Pavel Buchnevich, just as a recent example.
Younger players in this league are seemingly always on shorter leashes than their veteran counterparts. Vets have Earned Trust, rookies have not. It’s really that simple.
Only when coaches become desperate, as Vigneault clearly was after the Game 3 loss, will he be scared into doing something he knows is right even if he doesn’t want to. It’s dumb and I don’t get why it happens in 2017, but that’s what it boils down to.
Finally, John Evans asks: “Given their commitment to changing absolutely nothing, how likely are the Red Wings to be terrible again next season?”
John, thank you for your important question. Short answer: Very.
That’s it. See you next week. Bye.
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)
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