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defensefilms · 2 years ago

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These Players Are The X-Factors In The 2023 NBA Playoffs

The NBA regular season standing reveal how this year’s playoff race will be closer than ever, with just 3 wins separating 4th and 8th place in the Western Conference.

With margins this close, many of the outcomes of these games are going to be swung by moments and by role players, and how far a team’s supporting can push thier individual performances.

This may be true for every team in the post season, but some teams are going to need bigger contributions from their guys than others, and this is a comprehensive list of the players whose performances will have the biggest implications, outside the perfomance of the actual leading scorers.

1. Xavier Tillman Sr

With the injuries to the Grizzlies frontcourt (Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke), there will be a need for Grizzlies head coach, Taylor Jenkins. to find reliable pieces to plug that void.

Up to now, Jenkins has somewhat mitigated the problem through Xavier Tilman, who up to this point, has seen hism given more opportunities and Tilman has started 29 games and he averages about 19.3 minutes per game.

By playing Tilman alongside Jaren Jackson, Jenkins has found a front court pairing that gives him somewhat of a interrior defensive presence, and should he not be able to rely on Tilman, Jenkins will likely have to rely on playing smaller lineups with Desmond Bane at powerforward.

So much of how the Grizzlies backup powerforward performs will have a ripple effect on Memphis’ options as far as lineups and rotations.

2. Khris Middleton

This will be Khris Middleton’s 1st NBA playoff run since the Bucks won the title two years ago and I am not going to bother to factor in how many points he’s averaged because a lot of Middleton’s 2022/23 stats are watered down.

Hence why I am still concerned that Bucks head coach, Mike Budenholzer kept him out of the starting lineup for so long, and basically ran him with the bench unit, and I wonder what effect that had on Middleton because getting less time in lineups alongside Jrue, Giannis and Brook.

When you look at a Khris Middleton stat line, the first things you want to see are points and efficiency, and while that’s understandable, I think the other thing to watch with Middleton is his pick’n’roll defense because that’s what 1-on-1 scorers do when they face him, and he’s gotta get a handle on it, or be smarter before allowing himslef to switch on to those guys.

I for one, cannot think of a single 2nd star, that has more on his plate in 2023, than Khris Middleton.

3. Deandre Ayton

It’s funny how Kevin Durant joins the Phoenix Suns and his biggest influence or effect, on the team, seems to be his effect on Deandre Ayton.

It’s been tough-sledding for Ayton and while he has gotten a new contract since the 2021 finals, it has come with added scrutiny and a more strained relationship with head coach, Monty Williams.

Besides what the perception of Ayton may be, both within and outside the Suns organization, he’s in a unique spot to take full advantage of the kind of space he will have in the paint now that Durant is in Phoenix, and I think Ayton knows it.

A motivated Deandre Ayton can easily replicate what he was able to do against the Denver Nuggets in 2021.

It comes down to the reality that if you look at all the other Western Conference teams, none of them, outside of Denver with Jokic and maybe Memphis with Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson, have got bigs that can match up with Ayton.

He may have dealt with being called out for a lack of desire but I think Deandre recognises how he can be one of the big reasons the Suns get back to a finals.

4. Jamal Murray And Michael Porter Jr

Denver Nuggets fans have long since talked up the return of Jamal Murray and how that happening would finally allow the Nuggets to reach thier full potetial as Western Conference front runners, and they may very well have been right about that.

Michael Porter Jr’s case is slightly more complex.

It was thought that the Denver Nuggets had gotten the biggest steal in the 2018 draft when they got Porter Jr, and that still may very well be true, the problem is that when a young player is drafted to a team that already has star offensive players like Murray and Jokic. So Porter Jr hasn’t really had to push his game, the way he would have had if he had been drafted by any almost any other team in the league.

Murray is getting back to health but the reality is, the Nuggets need him to play like he did in the bubble back in 2020.

The combined scoring of these two auxillary scorers will sway the direction of the Nuggets playoff hopes and each will have thier own hangups/obstacles to to overcome in this post season.

The Nuggets playoff hopes, and Mike Malone’s job depend on this.

5. The Entire Warriors Front Court

This section has to include every member of Golden State’s fron court because

The Warriors defense has taken such a step backwards that

A lot of things are still the same on this team. Steph is still making crazy shots, Klay Thompson is back to his best, Jordan Poole is still among the top 6th men in the league, and they still have Gary Paton, Andrew Wiggins, plus the addition of Donte DiVencenzo.

What has changed is the commitment to defense, and that comes down to Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Jason Kuminga and Jamychal Green.

While the Warriors have done well to get themselves to top 6 seed, given how thier season started, but there is nothing else they can do, other than to increase thier frontcourt production and thier collective defense.

6. Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens

I’m going to keep a keen eye on this wing-forward pairing of the Cavaliers, because these guys actually have the potential to blow the lid off of the Cavs’ playoff ceiling.

That is, provided that they can make thier jump shots.

Clevelands guards scorers and the need for opposing defenses to double-team at least one of them, essentially means that the Cavs auxillary players are going to get a lot of wide open looks, and that means Okoro and Stevens need to focus on splashing their jumpers.

Now, I really have to wonder if Cavs head coach, JB Bickerstaff will commit to having these guys together in the lineup because Okoro averages 36.3% from 3 and Stevens is at 31.6% from the same distance. Bickerstaff has Caris Levert on the bench averaging 39.3% from 3 but they Cavs have not really unleashed the beast that is Caris yet.

It’s a conundrum and while putting Evan Mobley and Jared Allen together in the lineups has it’s perks because of what they do defensively, at some point they have to go to smaller lineups, create space and make jumpers.

#sports #basketball #nba #nba 2023 #lists #nba lists #nba playoffs #nba playoffs 2023 #x-factors

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shervonfakhimi · 5 years ago

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The Coronavirus 2020 NBA Draft Prospect Binge Report

Remember when people looked forward to 2020 with actual optimism? That was fun while it lasted. Instead of joy and relief, this year has brought us tragedy after tragedy and now utter chaos. That is not typically how one would start an article about NBA Draft prospects, but I have managed to accomplish absolutely nothing but watch replays of college basketball games of NBA Draft prospects amidst this COVID-19 pandemic. There are much more serious things going on right now, but maybe you could use a distraction. So here goes nothing! Here are some takeaways from prospects I’ve watched during the season and now after the season got shut down.

Lottery:

Anthony Edwards SG Georgia: I don’t know if blame needs to be put on Edwards, the construction of his Georgia team or Tom Crean, but Edwards tended to float through games and settle for tough shots he shouldn’t need to rely upon given his athleticism and superhero frame for a college freshman. And then, all of a sudden, you’ll see him flip the switch and embark on ballistic streaks like this where he explodes and decides not to miss. He’s an elite shotmaker, whether it is contested or on the move or both. It felt like he had too much of a green light to shoot these and Edwards relied on these shots a bit too much, and that put a damper on his efficiency. He did get to the free-throw line 5.3 times per game, but with his ability to drive, that probably could improve as well. A nearly identical assist/turnover ratio needs improvement as well. However, while I did not see a frequent number of passes manipulating scrambling defenses, I did see Edwards make the correct pass at times when swarmed by help defense, both in transition and in the halfcourt. When engaged, Edwards can be a staunch defender as well, but that wasn’t always the case. Again, it didn’t help playing on a young team that was often, at best, a disorganized mess (seriously, that’s me being nice). But, ideally, you’d like to see a player of Edwards’ caliber carry his team to more wins than what Georgia accumulated this season. But the talent is overwhelming and *clearly* there. He should be the number one pick (at least among the crop of college basketball prospects), but both he and the team that drafts him has work to do to get the most out of that talent.

Isaac Okoro SF Auburn: Isaac Okoro just might be the best defensive player in the draft, certainly on the wing. I watched Mason Jones give Auburn fits en route to a 40 point performance, but when Bruce Pearl (finally) placed Okoro to take him out, he obliged as if he was Jason Bourne on the loose, shutting Jones down and allowing Auburn to escape Bud Walton Arena with a win. He’s big, long, tough, and athletic to stay in front of just about anybody. Offensively, he’s more of a work-in-progress but is a good slasher who can pass or finish off a straight-line drive and can play a little bit of pick and roll. He’s got to improve as a shooter (29% from the three-point line, 67% from the free-throw line) and as a ballhandler, but will be able to defend in the NBA from day one. At the very least, he’s Josh Okogie of the Minnesota Timberwolves. The floor for him as a player is very high because of his defense. If his offensive game improves, however, he can be much more though.

Tyrese Maxey PG/SG Kentucky: A more in-depth look at the Kentucky guard is coming soon. Spoiler alert: I like him. A LOT.

Onyeka Okongwu C USC: A deeper dive into the Trojan big man will arrive shortly.

Obi Toppin SF/PF Dayton: An in-depth look at Mr. Toppin is dropping soon.

Devin Vassell SF Florida State: A deeper dive on the Florida State wing will drop shortly.

Cole Anthony PG North Carolina: If Anthony Edwards played in a mess, then I don’t know what the hell you’re supposed to describe what this season’s North Carolina team was. Anthony got hurt, his team completely fell apart without him and had little to zero help on his team outside of Garrison Brooks. So yeah, not great by any means! As a result, he’d often dribble into waves of defenders and/or hoist up forced shots which took a sledgehammer to his efficiency. He showed a little bit of a post and midrange game, did his best to control the tempo of the game and run pick and roll when he actually had room to do so, but that was not the norm. He should be better with NBA caliber teammates and spacing surrounding him next season. He should still go in the mid-to-late lottery, but this wasn’t the season many had hoped to get from him this season.

1st Round:

Saddiq Bey SF Villanova: You want a 3-and-D guy? Enter Saddiq Bey. Bey shot 41.8% from three during his two years at Villanova. Bey can hit them on the move as well as standing still, off the dribble or catch-and-shoot. He can defend multiple positions, staying in front of quicker guards or guys his size as well. I wouldn’t recommend a steady diet of Bey putting on the ball on the deck as a primary option, but he can definitely go create his own shot as well, as he did here against Georgetown, piling up 33 points in the process. Bey won’t overwhelm with his athleticism, but he can get the job done well enough to be a threat. Villanova’s a program that routinely churns out quality NBA players, and I wouldn’t expect anything less when it comes to Saddiq Bey.

Kira Lewis Jr. PG Alabama: Kira Lewis Jr. could be one of the better values out of the guard spot this season. He’s arguably the fastest player in the draft, and likely has that distinction amongst guards. He’d use that to his advantage to get to the rim, and when defenders try to cut him off or go under screens he’s a good enough shooter to make defenses pay. It felt like his first instinct was to find open teammates before going for his own. Lewis would flash finesse finishes in the paint, another nifty counter to balance his speed, but felt like he’d more often struggle to finish those plays than not. He needs to improve on that and his turnovers, but if he can, there is a lot to work with here. As an 18-year-old sophomore, Lewis is young for his age too and already has two years of experience under his belt. He needs to develop though and go to a place with a track record of developing young talent. If that’s the case, he can be a big-time steal. I’m a fan.

Jaden McDaniels SF/PF Washington: Perhaps no player in this draft is more perplexing, enigmatic, or boom-bust than McDaniels. There are days like his game against UCLA where once he is dialed in, he’s a scoring menace and guards 1-5 defensively. There are other days where you don’t even notice he’s on the floor. He still is raw and needs some fine-tuning to his game, but the flashes of brilliance are so tantalizing. He has the tools to become the versatile positionless wing to wreak havoc across the floor, but he’s going to need to go to a spot who can get the most out of him. The situation is key in the NBA, and there might not be a player more dependent upon it than McDaniels. If he gets to the right spot, he could be the steal of the draft.

Isaiah Stewart C Washington: While there are some concerns about Jaden McDaniels’ motor, there shouldn’t be much regarding his teammate, Isaiah Stewart. Stewart came to play all season long, routinely gobbling up rebounds and bending the rim. He racked up a double-double in nearly half of his games (14 out of 32) during his freshman season in Seattle. Stewart is a brute force at 6’9” 250 pounds yet runs like a gazelle in transition nearly every chance he gets to do so. What I also like about Stewart is he has very good touch around the rim and can go to the post and finish in case of an emergency. He fits the mold of the Clint Capela-archetype of today’s bigs. Sitting in the middle of Washington’s 2-3 zone didn’t allow for much to see how Stewart defends on the perimeter, but more and more NBA teams have elected to trot out zone defenses in stretches anyway in an attempt to throw off their opponent by giving them a different puzzle to solve. There is some question as to how much these types of bigs can actually produce in playoff series, but Stewart has skill in his own right to not be solely dependent on others throwing lobs to him like Clint Capela or Jarrett Allen, who both were played off the floor for stretches in the postseason last year. He’ll help whoever drafts him.

Nico Mannion PG Arizona: I was a little disappointed watching Mannion. He’s a floor general who looks to pass and make his teammates better, things I value out of my point guards for sure but was expecting a little more given the hype before the season, and he didn’t seem to live up to it. To be fair, he did finish the season well, but he was inconsistent. He also did not have an open court to play under in the halfcourt (a Sean Miller special) and thrived in that type of environment, mostly in transition. He’s a fantastic passer who looks to throw the ball up the floor in transition and is unafraid to let it fly before the defense is set. Creating his own shot proved to be too daunting a task at times, however, and that led to both he and Arizona’s inconsistency (again, coaching didn’t do him many favors though). Mannion is and can be a good player in the league, but I’m not sure we’ll see the star he was hyped to be before heading to Tuscon.

Cassius Winston PG Michigan State: More on the Spartan floor general will come soon.

Patrick Williams SF/PF Florida State: A deeper dive on the other wing from Florida State will arrive soon.

Tre Jones PG Duke: The problem with Tre Jones during his freshman year at Durham was his shooting ability. He shot 26.2% from deep that year, but things changed fairly drastically this go-around. He bumped his three-point percentage up to 36.1% while holding his water from the free-throw line. It’s easy to compare him to his brother Tyus, but it also holds weight with Tre’s ability to defend. If his shooting holds true, I don’t see how he couldn’t produce and follow the same trajectory as his brother in the NBA.

Jahm’ius Ramsey SG Texas Tech: Youth is the rage when it comes to the NBA draft, and Ramsey has a lot of it, as he won’t turn 19 until June. When it comes to youth, Ramsey showed it for stretches at Texas Tech, sometimes losing track of his man defensively or driving with reckless abandon into traffic (an unfinished handle to blame for some of that). Working in Ramsey’s favor, however, is the fact he hit 60 of 141 threes, not all of the catch-and-shoot variety, with some tough contested looks like this one sprinkled in between. However, I’m not sure his shot is as potent as his three-point percentage suggests, as his line-drive release and free-throw percentage (64.1%) strays from his percentage from deep, but shooting well from deep surely can’t hurt Ramsey’s chances. I wouldn’t count on Ramsey becoming a plus creator with the ball in his hands as his handle needs more polish to tap more into that area of his game, but he has given glimpses he can do so in spurts. Maybe Ramsey could step into a rotation with his effort level, but his best-case situation would be going to a team touted for its development prowess in the first round to give some reps and experience before throwing him to the NBA fire.

Sleepers:

Immanuel Quickley SG Kentucky: More on the Kentucky guard will arrive shortly.

Mason Jones SG/SF Arkansas: More about the Arkansas guard will come soon.

Desmond Bane PG/SG TCU: Desmond Bane should be getting more love than he’s getting. He can reliably play both guard spots with his ability to cut and move without the ball and space the floor (he’s a career 43% shooter from distance from well over 500 attempts throughout his four seasons at TCU) and create offense for himself or for others with the ball in his hands. Not only does he have the game to toggle between either guard spot, but at 6’6” 215 pounds, he possesses the size to switch across the floor and make difficult for anybody he’s guarding. He isn’t quite the conductor that fellow senior draft-eligible prospect Cassius Winston is, but the difference between the two is negligible. Bane could end up being an absolute steal if he were to fall in the second round, which, quite frankly, shouldn’t happen.

Elijah Hughes SF Syracuse: For those eager to read more on the Syracuse wing, it will drop shortly.

Isaiah Joe SG Arkansas: Isaiah Joe is a bit of an enigma. A knee injury really bothered him over the second half of the season and the construction of his team forced him to almost exclusively shoot threes, hurting his percentage from the field (36.7%). His form is still splendid, however, and the release is quick enough to get shots off when others can’t. He can get his own shot off the bounce with a step-back and is a nice passer in space, but struggled to finish through contact. He did embrace on the defensive side, however, routinely stepping up to take charges. I think it would do Joe good to come back and get stronger, but his shooting should keep him in the NBA for a long time in a time where everyone is looking for guys who can shoot from beyond the three-point line.

Payton Pritchard PG/SG Oregon: Pritchard reminds me a lot of Fred Vanvleet. He’s tough, tenacious, will get after it defensively, and will not go down without a fight. Both possess handles good enough to get them where they want to go along with their strength to bruise through defenders. Get a big man on a switch and Pritchard can handle them no problem and bury shots from distance. Teams need reliable guards off the bench, and Pritchard has proven he can be that for whoever drafts him, whether through his stellar play in the Pac-12 tournament last season or stepping his game up again this season, averaging over 20 points a night with 46.8/41.5/82.1 shooting splits. He won’t go high, but I feel fairly certain he’s going to stick in the NBA for a long time.

Nick Richards C Kentucky: John Calipari doesn’t do a whole lot of three-and-dones, but the payoff for Richards finally came through this season. Even at the beginning of the year against Michigan State and Evansville, he sort of got pushed around, but that changed during the course of the season. He’s athletic, can move up and down the floor, is a lob threat, can operate out of the post, and showed good verticality in the paint defensively. He has glue for hands, catching nearly every pass that came to his direction, even in tight corridors. As the center position continues to be an area where value is found, Richards can be a value for teams in the second round.

Jalen Smith C Maryland and Xavier Tillman C Michigan State: I’m lumping these two together because both Smith and Tillman seem like good archetypes for the modern big man. Defend the rim, switch on the perimeter, roll to the rim, hit the occasional three (Smith shot 36.8% on 2.8 attempts this season), and rebound. Smith likes to slip screens and is a threat to score both rolling to the rim or hit catch-and-shoot threes. Smith showed flashes of making the right reads on the move as well when rolling to the rim but would force passes that weren’t there, in part leading to his paltry near 0.5 assist/turnover ratio, but that can improve. Tillman can make the same passes when rolling to the rim as well and is a solid, but not as explosive compared to Smith, finisher in his own right. While he isn’t quite the shooter Smith is, his 3 assists per game are more than quadruple Smith’s on about the same number of turnovers. For a team that needs help in its frontcourt defensively, Smith or Tillman would make for a more than fine selection in the late first or early second round.

Markus Howard PG Marquette: I watched his game against USC and was quickly reminded: this guy can get buckets. Now, I’m not sure what else he does, but he can score and is one of the better shooters in the draft. If you need a Quinn Cook on your bench who can come in and flip a game or two with three quick threes, then this is the guy for you late in the draft.

Ashton Hagans PG Kentucky: Hagans is the polar opposite of what Howard is. He’s not as renowned a shooter, but he is a hound defensively and is a physical finisher at the rim. He’s quick and really fast with the ball in his hands and knows how to run a team. The league is falling out of favor for guys who aren’t shooters, but his defense and savvy should be enough to, at the very least, get Hagans on an NBA bench somewhere, especially if there are teams out there who believe they can develop that jumper.

Kaleb Wesson C Ohio State & Vernon Carey Jr. C Duke: Wesson and Carey are the archetype centers that are falling out of favor in the NBA. While they have defensive limitations on the perimeter, both Wesson and Carey are skilled passers who can match both low-post brute force with three-point prowess (Wesson shot 38% on threes during his career at Ohio State. Carey hit the same percentage, albeit on a much smaller sample size of just 21 threes). Unfortunately, their time of conception was off a few years in terms of how the NBA values big men like them, diminishing their draft stock, but both have a shot of sticking in a rotation somewhere with their abilities to generate offense.

Skylar Mays PG/SG LSU: If you value versatility at your guard spot, Skylar Mays can be a very nice value in the draft. He boosted his efficiency up big time this year, shooting a career-high 49.1% from the field and 39.4% from three, allowing him to switch up and shift roles depending on what his team needed. He can affect the game and create offense both with and without the ball in his hands at the start of possessions. I could see him stick in the NBA for a long time.

Yves Pons SF/PF Tennessee: Pons is a monster athlete. He looks like a tight end out there. The man can actually fly. Seriously. Granted, that is against air, but that still doesn’t seem normal at all. He can get in a stance and defend guards and use his 6’6” 215-pound frame and athleticism to hang against bigger players. He even shot about 35% from three this season. It didn’t feel like Tennessee tapped into his athleticism enough, but an NBA team would be smart to and give him a chance to be a role player off the bench in the mold of a Derrick Jones Jr.

Cassius Stanley SF Duke: I’ll be honest, I didn’t think much of Stanley as an NBA prospect outside of his insane hops and wasn’t sure I’d sway off of that line of thinking. I was wrong. Going back to the hops though, the man literally has pogo-sticks for legs to fly across the hardwood, and no I’m not kidding. Get him running on the wing in transition and odds are he’ll bring the house down. Also, how’s this for an inbounds play? But, while Stanley is very much still a raw prospect, there is more than meets the eye than just aerial acrobatics. I was surprised to see he ended the season shooting 36% from deep and it bore out on the tape as he made defenses pay *enough* for making him beat them from distance. He’d use his freaky athleticism to slash to the rim and get to the free-throw line (3.6 free throw attempts per game). He’d benefit from a tighter handle and could use a better feel for the game (he nearly doubled his assist numbers with turnovers), but think he showed he *can be* more than just a dunker. He’s more than worth the shot in the second round.

Jordan Nwora SF Louisville: I wish Nwora was a little more consistent. I also wish he had more avenues towards production other than scoring. Nwora came on the scene last season with his scoring prowess and has coupled that with efficiency from deep (he shot 39% on over 450 threes during his three seasons at Louisville). Nwora’s defense and playmaking do not inspire a ton of confidence, but Nwora can serve as an instant offense energizer off the bench.

Aamir Simms PF/C Clemson: Simms’ name has not entered many NBA Draft discussions that I have heard/read, but that seems like a mistake to me. With requisite size (6’8” 240 pounds) and ample athleticism, Simms’ build suggests he is capable of handling the pounding of an NBA big man. His game does so as well. Passing is a strong suit of his game, as Simms can deliver nifty passes from all types of angles and areas along the floor. He can either finish or playmake a little in the dribble hand-off game and can also elevate in the open floor in the pick-and-roll. He’s a career 35% three-point shooter and owns essentially a neutral assist/turnover ratio (better than many other bigs in this class). He isn’t the biggest brute out there but uses every ounce of his frame to take the punishment from his opponent and hold his ground. Is Simms a star? Not exactly, but I could see him be a positive contributor off the bench and possibly work his way into being a starter a la Maxi Kleber has done with the Dallas Mavericks. Simms should not be ignored.

Kristian Doolittle SF Oklahoma: Kristian Doolittle deserves some more love, in my opinion. He’s 6’7”, 232 pounds, ideal size for the modern wing, with the versatility to guard multiple positions. Doolittle shot 37% from three during his four seasons at Norman, albeit on only 131 attempts, but still (he was solid from the free-throw line too, hitting at least 77.5% of his free-throws in three of four seasons). I see quite a bit of Dorian Finney-Smith, who has turned into quite the role player for the Dallas Mavericks, in Doolittle’s game. I could easily see Doolittle becoming a role player like Finney-Smith and becoming a very nice steal for whoever gives him a sh

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