#Wild That This Is A Novel Concept In 2025
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Beginning to suspect some of y'all have never heard of the sunk-cost fallacy
Or if you have, you've never applied it to the media you choose to engage with
#Not Gonna Tag The Fandom That This Is Currently About#But Like#Some Of Y'all Need To STOP WATCHING JFC#There's A Reason I Still Follow The People I Follow#And It's Cuz They Took A Hard Look At How This ~Particularly Long-Running Story~ Was Going#And Went “Nah I Don't Think THIS Campaign Is For Me Thanks Tho”#Then Quit Out To Continue On With Their Lives Without Investing Hundreds Of Hours Into It#And Then Went On To NOT Watch It Bitch About It Or Assume Things About It Based On Fandom Info And Not Actual Cast Info#Wild That This Is A Novel Concept In 2025#Anyway I Apparently Have A Few ~Controversial~ Opinions About The Last Episode#In That It Was FINE And Contained UNDERSTANDABLE And REASONABLE ACTIONS?????? Based On The Narrative As A Whole?????????????#I Think Y'all Are Just...Presuming Facts Not In Evidence And Ignoring Some Of The Words LITERALLY Coming Out Of Cast Members' Mouths#But What Do I Know I've Only Watched With My Own Eyes The Actual Episodes And Now The Added Extra Content For Subscribers 🙄🙄🙄
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Chilean Marxist, Marta Harnecker's magnum opus has been uploaded to Marxists.org
https://www.marxists.org/archive/harnecker/1969/historical-materialism/whole-book.pdf
Introduction to Elementary Concepts of Historical Materialism
Authored by Marta Harnecker, 1969 Translated by the Theoretical Review periodical of the Tucson Marxist-Leninist Collective, 1978-81 Preserved by marxists.org Edited by anonymous using libre software, 2024 January 4, 2025
Her books The Elemental Concepts of Historical Materialism and Notebooks of Popular Education were widely used by communist parties and workers' organizations in Spanish-speaking countries for the training of their militants during the 1970s and later.
Her work is mentioned in By Night in Chile By Roberto Bolaño
As through a crack in the wall, By Night in Chile's single night-long rant provides a terrifying, clandestine view of the strange bedfellows of Church and State in Chile. This wild, eerily compact novel—Roberto Bolano's first work available in English—recounts the tale of a poor boy who wanted to be a poet, but ends up a half-hearted Jesuit priest and a conservative literary critic, a sort of lap dog to the rich and powerful cultural elite, in whose villas he encounters Pablo Neruda and Ernst Junger. Father Urrutia is offered a tour of Europe by agents of Opus Dei (to study "the disintegration of the churches," a journey into realms of the surreal); and ensnared by this plum, he is next assigned—after the destruction of Allende—the secret, never-to-be-disclosed job of teaching Pinochet, at night, all about Marxism, so the junta generals can know their enemy.
It is telling that even in the abstractions of Marxist theory, the 1st question the Junta Admiral asks is "Is she good-looking?". Revealing of the extremely objectifying views misogynist Junta officers had towards Marxist women, especially those with intellectual achievements. Which went beyond "locker room talk" to the official Junta policy on how they should be treated.
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Writer names "The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy-" as their most anticipated video game of 2025 in Sports Illustrated column; I am pleased and confused
Hype "The Hundred Line." Do it. Dooo it.
My thoughts upon seeing and reading this column were roughly these, in order:
Sports Illustrated has video game content????
Not only that, Sports Illustrated runs gaming content that is blatantly written by a Danganronpa/Zero Escape fan???
AND they're a PS Vita fan!!
Damn, they even praised Zanki Zero's writing! This person knows what's UP.
Wait, she is out here shit-talking Master Detective Archives: Rain Code?? WTF, girl. Pssst, you're losing me.
....what's a GLHF?
Okay, so this Georgina Young is apparently a columnist for some kind of content farm called "GLHF" that just happens to supply material to both Sports Illustrated and USA Today. But regardless of the details of the source, it's still so damned wild to see the niche world of visual novel/Danganronpa/Zero Escape fandom get this kind of press somewhere like Sports Illustrated. I guess we're getting a little less niche every day, eh?
But I for one know that I can't expect these new franchises coming out of Kodaka and Uchikoshi to ever replace Danganronpa and/or Zero Escape in my heart. They are their OWN things, even as they carry over certain story themes and even gameplay concepts. I loved the two A.I.: The Somnium Files games, but I also don't think they reach the level of Zero Escape because, well... they're so different. They can't really be the same thing, and thanks to my inner edgelord, my heart will always belong foremostly to the darker story where there's more death and more on the line. The same is true of Rain Code vs. Danganronpa.
And I assume the same will remain true of Danganronpa vs The Hundred Line as well. Although we do appear to be getting closer to the kind of life-or-death emotional stakes crossed with quirky characters and wacky humor that I'm specifically jonesing for. So who knows?
#danganronpa#zero escape#zero escape series#master detective archives: rain code#rain code#master detective archives#zanki zero#zanki zero: last beginning#the hundred line: last defense academy#the hundred line -last defense academy-#the hundred line#sports illustrated#glhf
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August 2024 reads
[loved liked ok nope dnf bookclub*]
My Lady Jane • The Wild Robot • Our Hideous Progeny • The Hero and the Crown • The Screwtape Letters • The Seventh Veil of Salome • Our Shouts Echo • Villette • The Lies of Alma Blackwell • The Mercy of Gods • Mistress of Lies • Lady Macbeth • Go to Hell • Lucy Undying
I read 14 books in August! (Well, ok, I'm on track to finish the last two today.) It was a busy reading month for me due to tons of ARCs and new releases (8/14 of this list!), which resulted in an "all my library holds are ready at once ougsfshfh" situation. I also once again checked out a few books in order to see if they're worth reading in future years of @bellasbookclub.
My Lady Jane ★★★☆☆ - A very silly time that often reads more like upper-middle-grade than YA. A skip for TV show fans, but the tween furry community should be overjoyed.
The Wild Robot ★★★★★ - An adorable (and yet surprisingly death-y) kids' book that (🤞) should make a fantastic movie. The illustrations alone bump this one up a few stars.
Our Hideous Progeny ★★★★☆ - The last (?) of my BBC Summer Reading Challenge 2024 picks! Has a slow start but man, if you give me an undead abomination plesiosaur who is also a cute little guy, I am seated. Could have been a five star read if it were just a lil gayer and more Creature-forward!
The Hero and the Crown ★★★☆☆ - Read this one to screen it for @bellasbookclub, so I shan't say any details (yet.)
The Screwtape Letters ★★★☆☆ - Another BBC screening but nope nah I'm not gonna make us read The Christianity Book. Did not make me repent of my godless Jezebel ways even a little bit, but gets three stars because it's nevertheless a fascinating glimpse of C.S. Lewis as a person. Next time I'll stick to The Good Place though.
The Seventh Veil of Salome ★★★★1/2 - Speaking of godless Jezebels: Silvia Moreno-Garcia and I have the same biblical blorbo!! I haven't loved any of Moreno-Garcia's work since Mexican Gothic, but finally, this one was another slam dunk for me! As a Salome (1893) enjoyer and understander I'm so glad SMG is one of us. The main (Hollywood Golden Age) parts were also deftly rendered—this was the first truly well-executed Karen Villain I've encountered.
Our Shouts Echo ★★★★☆ - A really sweet and enjoyable contemporary YA coming-of-age + romance that somehow pulled off its nuanced optimism without being preachy or precious. Dare I say...actual hopepunk? An ARC from ALA Annual.
Villette ★★★☆☆ - Another book club screening. [Helga voice] I hated this book but I loved this book but I hated this book but I loved this book. Dammit, it's just so memeable. See you in hell 2025 probably
The Lies of Alma Blackwell ★★★1/2☆ - A decent YA ghost story with immaculate creepy, witchy, & haunted house vibes and some fun tropey romance (sure, why not?) Another ARC.
The Mercy of Gods ★★★★☆ - Ensemble-driven alien invasion story in which a team of wet babygirl science geeks must prove their worth to their new Giant Fucked Up Bug overlords and also one of them is a parasitic hivemind but we don't know which. Unsinkable concept but the writing makes it even better. One for the grown up Animorphs kids (Yes I know I rated it less than Wild Robot, but Wild Robot is a 5-star quality kids' book, while Mercy of Gods is an imperfect but riveting adult novel that I connected with on a more personal level.)
Mistress of Lies ★★★☆☆ - 2nd-to-last in my self-imposed (Review-) Bombed Books Week Challenge. A generous rounding up to three stars because I like the concept and it had a strong start before...plateauing for 200 pages. (Where were the titular LIES?) Very little actually happened and yet my laconic review is somehow "do less."
Lady Macbeth ★★★★☆ - More of an original story with some names in common than a retelling (Macbeth fans be forewarned. Y'all remember the dragon? You know, the dragon that's in Macbeth?) I tired of how repetitive the assault-as-motif became, but there were some very cool plot choices and Ava Reid's prose is gorgeous as ever. Kind of Green Knight vibes!
Go to Hell ★★★1/2☆ - Another ARC, this one a nonfiction travel guide to IRL destinations that are either associated with Hell/underworld mythology or just hellish places in general. Taught me a lot more folklore and history than your average travel guide!
Lucy Undying ★☆☆☆☆ - Hilarious of me to read two retellings in a row. Unlike Macbeth, I feel deep personal affection for Dracula, which meant this book wold have made me silver_linings_playbook.gif it out the window if I hadn't been reading on my phone. If I had never read Dracula, I miiiight have liked this? (jk I finished it and can now definitively say I would not have.) The prose was decent and I liked Lucy's modern-day love interest, Iris, but this author clearly graduated from the "lesbians must hate and deride all men all the time and be proven right in this view when every single man tries to harm them" school of writing sapphic characters, and since the book was basically encouraging me to paranoid-read, it set off both my "clumsy writing" and "...is this a t3rf?" alarms. tl;dr Mina and Jonathan and Van Helsing and Seward and Arthur and Quincey and Berserker the wolf and even Mr. Swales (slandering Mr. Swales?? Is nothing sacred??) deserved SO much better. Now I'll have to reread Dracula to cleanse myself
DNFs: None! Although Lucy Undying certainly tried my patience.
August superlatives
Next up:
September is another new release-filled month! I'm on track to finish my Bombed Books Week Challenge with The Empire Wars by Akana Phenix and then the unreleased Crown of Starlight itself, so I can satisfy my intellectual curiosity of how it compares to the books its author tried to sabotage. (Which attempted sabotage was an abhorrent action I 100% condemn. Toss aside those large rocks, I've been supporting the targeted authors at my local bookstore and library.)
In less dramatic goals, I've got an ARC of Ruin Road by Lamar Giles I'm eager to check out, and I can't wait for Long Live Evil to be ready at the library. We've also got our first official Bella's Book Club read of Season 3, which should be fun (hint: it's an Austen!)
previous months:
july
#bookblr#booklr#bookish#book review#arc review#august 2024#my lady jane#the wild robot#our hideous progeny#the hero and the crown#the seventh veil of salome#our shouts echo#villette#charlotte bronte#the mercy of gods#lady macbeth#lucy undying#monthly wrap ups#august 2024 reads#read in august
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first 🌰 ask of the year, how exciting is that 👏😏 hi ashlynn! hope you’re feeling better! it made me so happy to talk about folk of the air with you. i have more fae stories in my 2025 tbr, like balzac’s the last fey (a very short read) and the second book in the emily wilde series (i think the third one is releasing very soon.) concerning my fave reads from the holiday event… you guessed 2 out 3 titles correctly OMG how do you know me this well !?
let’s go about this in descending order.
🥉 krampusnacht ┃ is this a safe space to say i got off to this one? and i know, i know i said i can rarely get into pwp… which is why i’m pleasantly surprised by how captivated i was by this. i saw the light. and the way beomgyu’s delayed appearance creates both tension and anticipation? i was being teased on several levels LMAO.
🥈 it will come back ┃ maybe it’s because the crowd has been awaiting tsfawc taehyun smut with bated breath but i know i’m not the only one who was reminded of him while reading iwcb. let’s begin with the fact that you named it after another hozier song title!? and the jealousy, obviously? (never fear that you might be overindulging in the jealousy trope for i voraciously eat it up every single time.) but i digress. i think what makes a yandere character so caricatural is when the mc knows something’s off with them yet decide not to do anything about it. like, wdym he just baked your cat into a pie for cockblocking him once and you don’t gaf ??? the fact that, in iwcb, mc only realises she’s fucked when it’s too late adds such a layer of realism that amplifies the prevailing dreariness. also “is this what you want? to be fucked like an animal? you’re better than that. but, if it’s what you like, i’ll fuck you like it.” i died, i’m typing this from the afterlife.
🥇 at swan lake ┃ the story began with melancholy but i was so excited to read this one that i couldn’t stop giggling (◞‸◟) i have to say, you’re so great at focusing on one particular personality trait of each member and expanding on it to make up the character you believe best fits the story. it’s like… they’re familiar/recognisable yet we see them in a new light. (“in the air, the rich nuttiness of fire-toasted chestnuts dance…” they could really get me to show up to the engagement party with that fr.) “i’d take you no matter how you are; in a thousand different lives, i’d have you each time.” yeah, i CRIED. you dropped so many banger lines in this one. the lore was so insane in at swan lake, i was invested as hell. the gasp i let out when beomgyu revealed that the whole swan saints thingy is a lie and they can touch ??? why was i bamboozled OFC they can touch otherwise how would they fuck ??? the concept is way too brilliant, i’d totally read it as a novel or novella.
special mentions ┃ the frost remembers (angst is bait, i am fish.) ⟋ milk with your cookies? (i know the people are enjoying gift wrapping more but sleep on beds, not peak!!)
i read everything you wrote and, as i thought, you could never write anything half-assed. glad to know tsfawc is back AAAAA i’d love a spoiler like last time (><) miss my gang (brooding fae man, changeling, the off-putting kelpie guy they sort of adopted and prince charming fae who’s been all in their business, thinking he’s on the team.) take care! stay hydrated and get adequate amounts of rest! love u 🌰🤎
first chestnut ask of the year!! life is good >.<!! talking w u about my silly faerie obsession has been fun and i’ll have to read some more so that it never ends. :3
IM SO EXCITED FOR THIS YOU DONT EVEN KNOW. i’m just awesome and smart like that 😖 JKJK I JUST HAD A FEELING
KRAMPUSNACHT THREW ME OFF A LIL. i think out of the smuttier ones, tho, it makes sense. also YES it absolutely is IM FLATTERED. i need this pair in ways that i should not disclose. beomgyu’s a little wicked and a little eerie but that’s how i like him. LMAO
IT WILL COME BACKKK that’s one of my favorite hozier songs it’s so eerie and sexy at the same time. i knew it had to be the title 😭 iwcb and tsfawc taehyun are definitely in the same vein. especially with that cool calculation. but of course, they have a very different set of morals and i think that’s where they differ most. hehe. i do sometimes fear that i’m going overboard with jealousy, but… i am who i am. i am a hoe for jealousy, but i am FREE and i am HAPPY. i agree w yandere’s sometimes become unbelievable when they’re not handled correctly. sometimes they’re just batshit crazy in broad daylight, and i’m like?? i am not feeling unnerved and slightly out of place, i’m just SCARED. with yanderes, you definitely have to keep reader in a suspension of belief along with the MC. the best part abt a yandere, in my opinion, is that chills feeling you get when you know something is slightly off, but you can’t pin it/say that there’s smth wrong with them, because they’ve gotten good at hiding who they really are. this one was so fun to write for me,, it was my first dabble into dark territory and WHEW did i love it
at swan lake… my baby <<<333 ALSO IVE BEEN TOLD THIS A FEW TIMES, that the members are vaguely familiar when i write them. i fully own that—i think that sometimes it’s really fun to have a character in a fic that is super far from a member’s true self, but i really like being able to relate them back to the members because it just feels so immersive. maybe that’s why i do it, lol. AND I KNEW YOU’D LOVE THAT i was absolutely thinking abt you when i wrote that. so toasty so cozy so yum. i am so attached to this fic, as the certified #1 soulmates & reincarnation truther. something about a love that will prevail and find its way, even through the stark end of death and the pressure of the world on its back… cries. i just loved beomgyu being her opposite, and everything that goes against what she has been taught, but she just couldn’t keep herself away. it was fate. CRIES HARDER.
the frost remembers, my precious :,)) also I LOVE MILK W UR COOKIES AND i am so w u. santa soobin was smth i was not expecting to have to reflect upon myself with, but it happened and i am better for it.
ILY BUNCHES and i miss my gang too :(( they are a strange bunch, maybe even a motley crew, but they have a special place in my heart. i love them and OFCCC i’ll give you guys spoilers. i’m too impatient not too 😭 i get excited for you guys to see. U TAKE CARE OF URSELF and as always i’ll be waiting for the next time you come to talk! :3
#﹙🌰 ﹚ ·˚ ༘ chestnut anon#﹙📃﹚༉‧₊ inbox#literally loved reading every second of this#and i love you#and i appreciate and adore you so much#txt fanfic#txt#txt x reader#tsfawc#to someone from a warm climate
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Character Creation Challenge 2025, Day 2: Burning Wheel
The first thing she did after getting out was to name herself. Then her wolf. Then the trees, stones, and individual birds and beasts. Drunk on names, she named the arrows as she let them fly, the loudest crackles of her meager campfire. None of the old rules mattered anymore. No one could tell her what to do. If that night was the only night she lived, it was worth it.
But that wasn't the only night; there were others, and the giddiness of freedom only lasted so long. Hunger was an ever-present motivator, shelter and warmth. Her past, like an unwanted embrace, came at her in the day when she tried to sleep. Little Brother felt hunger more keenly than her, fumed with the solitude that she embraced. She could never travel far enough, it seemed, to leave the black mountain's shadow. And the fear - she found so many new things to fear. The green leaves and wild, soft things that were always intimated at being forbidden - not for someone like her. The sounds of unfamiliar speech over a wooded hill. The little signs of other people, dropped horseshoes and picked-through bushes - would they hate her?
Everyone hated her. The whole of the mountain seethed with hate, it underlined all she had learned. Some days she near choked with it, feverish, sick with hate. She hated the situation she had been forced to endure, hated the fact that her daughters were still back home - that she still thought of that pit of pointless misery as "home". The resentment in turning over a stone in search of insects and finding a dropped brass button, that others should have such fine things while all her life was rotten work and pain.
But more and more, day by day, there was a novel sensation - a quietude, a stillness in her emotion that hadn't been there previously. She felt it when she slept against Little Brother's warm, rough hide, when he kicked and whined in his sleep. When she washed herself in clean water, drank the river as it passed - she felt it then. Not the numbness of a new injury before it had learned to sting, not the confident reel of drunkenness. Something new. Had any orc felt this any time before?
No words for it in her sole, vile tongue. No use for it among the orcs and goblins. But it was peace she was feeling, subtle as starlight, and she craved it like an addict.
All from the thought: What if I just left? And years of preparation, but still. What if I just left? Death and consumption a sure thing under the leaves, according to her masters. Death and consumption a sure thing under the mountain.
No going back. Never again.
*****
Name: Hunched and Horned Under the Great Green Moon Concept: Burnt-out orc hunter looking for a way out of the bleak life Lifepaths: 5 (wanna roll the die of fate) Age: 28
Will: B3; Perception B3; Power B4, Forte B4, Agility B5, Speed B5 Health: B4; Mortal Wound: B10; Reflexes: B5; Steel: B5; Hatred: B4 Superficial: 3, Light: 5, Midi: 7, Severe: 8, Traumatic: 9, Mortal: 10 Skills: Foraging B2, Bow B4, Mounted Combat, Riding B2, Armor, Spear B2, Intimidation B2, Black Bile Poison, Scavenging B1, Hunting B3, Field Dressing B1, Stealthy B3, Tracking B2, Vile Poisoner B2 Traits: Cannibal, Cold Black Blood, Breeder, Fanged and Clawed, Loathsome and Twisted, Lynx-Eyed Like Burning Coals, Vile Language, Tasting the Lash, Brash, Cry of Doom, Scavenger
Gear: Run of the mill bow, Great Wolf mount (Last Little Brother), Traveling gear, Rags Circles: B0, Resources: B0 Relationships: She Who Froths the Blood to Boiling, Chain-Forger Made and Remade, twin daughters, still back in it, both named and strong. No idea what they might think of their wayward mother, what they might be doing. A contentious thing, even when Moon was in the mountains. Beliefs: I refuse to accept misery if there is no point to it. The wild and untravelled places hold the only joy some of us will ever know. I want to believe that my people aren't past saving. Instincts: If not intimately familiar with an area, I stalk through it slowly and stealthily. I ensure my weapons are always poisoned. I ensure my wolf is well-fed and happy, even before myself.
Lifepaths: Born Chattel, 10 yrs; Scavenger, 3 yrs; Nightseeker, 4+1 yrs; Black Hunter, 5 yrs; DIE OF FATE! Rolled a 6, I'm fine; Astride the Beast, 5 yrs.
*****
When I first bought Burning Wheel, $9.99 Canadian for two books at the used bookstore, I bounced off of it halfway through the main rolling mechanics. Later on, displeased at the waste, I tried to roll a character and bounced, again, off the simultaneous profundity and restrictiveness of the lifepaths. I didn't like it. I couldn't tell you why, but the dislike was deeper than these wordless things tend to be - an instinctual flinching back, an "ugh" murmured softly to myself whenever someone praised it.
I have those words now. It has been analyzed, experienced. Burning Wheel is, fundamentally, up its own ass.
Burning Wheel is a system could be defined less as a "game" and more as a "difficult-to-play art project made through the mechanism of game design" - but hey, I like Noumenon, and that is the definition of difficult-to-play art project made through the mechanism of game design. This flinching, then, comes because I detect a mote of the less-than-genuine. The system reads less as an attempt to express than an attempt to impress.
Role-playing games are complex endeavors, even at the most one-page, storygame simplistic. There's always going to be something you get wrong, a mechanic you just forget to use, a story beat that slipped under the waves. But I try to imagine playing this thing - not even session zero, just, like, session two. The game after the training wheels come off, after you've made your characters, rolled some dice to test out how it feels. The part where you're supposed to remember everything. The part where you're supposed to know not only how to distribute metacurrency for yourself, but the triggers to distribute it to other players. The part where you have to engage with the advancement mechanics and realize you have so much bookkeeping to do - so much professed freedom, but so little control.
And I imagine going back to D&D. It's complex, too, but Christ, compare the base-level rolling mechanics. Roll a d20, apply positive or negative modifiers, there you go. And there are no absolute forbiddances or mandatories hidden, like, halfway through an otherwise unrelated paragraph. And no one calls you an idiot if you don't like it.
If you have a good DM, and you have a group of enthusiastic players, and you have a solid story you want to tell - yes, of course, you can play a good game of Burning Wheel. But it is fundamentally not my jam, and at the last, I'm grateful now to know why.
Next up: Further media disappointments told through the medium of dice.
#character creation challenge#new year new character#burning wheel#okay i DO have to mention the whole 'it's an intentionally settingless system!' thing but like#it's just fucking tolkien#we are a cursed people we fantasy-likers#the shadow is long and prosaic
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The NBA is at a breaking point with three-point shooting
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Teams are shooting more from deep than at any time in NBA history, and it’s causing problems.
The debate between Candace Parker and Shaquille O’Neal on Inside the NBA underscored how Shaq has been left behind by the modern NBA. Teams are stacking their rosters with shooters, stretching defenses and tearing conventional basketball concepts asunder. The role of sharpshooter, once reserved to a couple of players on the roster, has now expanded to where as many as four excellent three point shooters could be on the floor at the same time, and even centers have become capable of draining shots from the outside, too.
When it comes to shooting there’s no question that NBA players are getting better, but now there are questions whether this shift is ruining professional basketball. Teams have worked out that the math is on your side to shoot as many threes as possible during a game, pushing aside conventional notions of mid-range jumpers, or post-ups, which were so popular in the 90s and into the 00s. The shift has some are wanting to push for a change.
ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz spoke to several figures around the NBA, and there’s a growing concern that the proliferation of shooters in the league is reaching a critical mass. There are questions about whether defense should be tightened, or new rules benefitting defenders more — but at least one of the proposed changes is absolutely wild.
“A more radical proposal from a longtime league power broker who wishes to remain anonymous (unless the idea gains traction) would curb inflation by limiting supply: Cap the amount of 3-pointers a team can take over the course of a game.”
The idea would be that teams could only attempt a limited number of counted threes in a half, floated as being 20. After those 20 attempts are used up each three would be worth two, like an ordinary field goal. Then, with 6:00 left in the game the floodgates would open up, allowing teams to attempt as many threes for full value as possible.
However novel this might seem, the idea is functionally terrible. Adding another layer of in-game tracking to basketball is just an annoyance, for fans and players alike, pushing the game into bizarre video game territory. The beauty of basketball is the nuance and complexity, hidden behind what appears to be simplicity. It makes it the ultimate sport to enjoy on a surface level, with much, much deeper strategy for those who want to dive in.
That doesn’t mean things are fine, though.
There is no question that teams are shooting more from deep than ever before.
We have two metrics to look at how often teams are attempting threes: League-wide three-point attempts, which measures exactly how often teams are shooting from behind the arc, and three-point rate, which is the percentage of threes a team takes out of its total field goals attempts. Both show a massive proliferation.
What we see is a fairly even progression at the beginning, followed by an exponential explosion. It took 18 years for the average number of three-point attempts teams take per game to increase by 10 between 1990-2007. It then took another 10 years for three-point attempts per game to increase by another 10 shots. In the last four years, we’ve seen the league wide average jump another 5.9 three per game, putting it on a trend to complete another 10 shots per game cycle in seven years.
But are teams shooting better?
In short, no ... but it’s complicated. The issue is there’s seemingly no limiting factor to teams attempting more threes. While teams are shooting more from deep than even, the overall average percentage league-wide has remained fairly constant.
What this means is that shooters in the NBA have always been great, it’s just that there are far more shooters in the league than there were 30 years ago. Teams effectively lose nothing from having every player shoot from deep, rather than trying to get easy buckets in the paint. If we stay on the current trajectory teams will be shooting half their shots from three by 2025-26.
Thus far we have only one team, the Houston Rockets, to shoot a 3PAr of over 50 percent in a season — and they did it in three consecutive years. The 17-18, 18-19, and 19-20 Rockets hit this mark. While Stephen Curry and the Warriors are often blamed for the proliferation of deep shooting in the NBA, the reality is that during their championship seasons they shot a 3PAr in the low .300s. Pistons coach Dwane Casey, the defensive expect who served under Rick Carlisle in Dallas agrees.
Casey says that the volume of 3-point shots is, in large part, a result of those well-intentioned efforts to create more space on the floor for a free-flowing game. The deluge of 3-pointers that has followed isn’t entirely a product of kids trying to imitate Curry but a consequence of a game when those kids are often wide open because spacing has been inflated.
“One primary thing that triggers all those 3-point shots is penetration,” Casey said. “When you can’t touch anybody, you are going to give up penetration. But these are hard conversations.”
In order to counteract this disparity we would need to see a drastic improvement in two point shooting to make up for it. This season teams are shooting .368 from three, and .528 from two. In order to make it worth it for teams to alter their offenses, without external intervention, we would need to see a full .333 disparity in favor of 2P% to offset the basic reality than a three is worth a full third more than a two.
That means seeing a 2P% of .701, which is functionally impossible. Only two players in NBA history have finished a full season with a shooting percentage of .700 or better (Wilt Chamberlain and DeAndre Jordan), and now you’re asking the entire NBA to do it in order to counteract the value of threes.
Is this a problem though?
That really depends on what you value in basketball, but it’s clear that rampant three point shooting, especially approaching 50 percent of a team’s attempts, will lead to the homogenization of the NBA. A game will still have different strategies and players, but always with the goal of taking shots from deep unless they aren’t available.
Homogeny is a problem, because it makes games boring. Variety is what makes sport exciting. It was fun to see the deep shooting Warriors take on the paint-dominating Cavaliers in the Finals from 2015-2018, but decidedly less interesting to see two teams use identical strategies, to varying degrees of success.
There is a clear issue that players are just getting too good. Everyone is learning to be a shooter, everyone is as successful as the snipers of the early 1990s. Part of that is due to defensive limitations to free up shooters, and part is simple evolution of the league. However, it order to keep the balance so basketball remains compelling it’s clear some changes will need to be made in order to reduce the incentive to shoot from three.
There are a couple of easy suggestions on how to do this, without resorting to a ludicrous video-game like system of limiting effective attempts.
Allow hand checking again to eliminate clear attempts off the dribble.
Remove unnatural motion as a strategy to draw fouls on the perimeter.
Remove the three foul shot rule all together, and make all free throws two from the stripe on a missed shot.
Call illegal screens more tightly to eliminate as many free looks.
These are four of the suggestions that have been floated by basketball analysts, all of which would open up the flow of the game better. The issue isn’t fundamentally alter or punish players for becoming better shooters, but removing requiring more skills than just being a good shooter to succeed from beyond the arc. In these case it would require players to be better ball handlers, more effective shooters in traffic, and push players to be better free throw shooters.
The key to opening up the NBA again isn’t punishing players for focusing on the outside game, but pressuring them to add more tools to their suite by lessening the impact on defenses and giving them freedom to do more. These changes could be slowly added to the NBA and evaluated over time, but the end goal should be to return to the core notion that different basketball strategies should be effective in the NBA — not just who can shoot best.
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