#She already won the special election to this seat but winning the general is a big freakin deal

[airplanefoodblackmarket]

Mary Peltola officially won Alaska’s House seat for the Democrats!

And the Iron Murk defeated her hard-right Senate opponent, as well.

[mariacallous]

Virginia state Sen. Jennifer McClellan will win the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District and will become the first Black woman to represent the commonwealth in Congress, CNN projected Tuesday.

McClellan will defeat Republican Leon Benjamin, a pastor and Navy veteran, to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin, who died in November.

The heavily Democrat district, which comprises the city of Richmond, parts of Henrico County, Petersburg and south toward the state line, had been held by McEachin since 2017. He overwhelmingly defeated Benjamin in 2022 for the seat with 69.4% of the vote.

McClellan outraised and outspent Benjamin in the lead-up to Tuesday’s special election, according to their respective campaigns’ pre-special election reports filed on February 9.

Her election to the US House of Representatives is a milestone for Virginia, a state that was once home to the capital of the Confederacy and is a former slave-trading center. McClellan’s victory will add to what is already a record number of women and women of color in Congress, and also set a new record for the number of Black women, according to data from the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

On a busy Saturday ahead of the election, she greeted voters alongside Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, a close ally who officiated her wedding, and local and state lawmakers. She also rallied a few dozen campaign volunteers before they went knocking on doors of potential voters and cast her ballot along with her husband, David Mills, with their two children Jackson and Samantha.

“It’s a tremendous honor but it’s also a tremendous responsibility because I need to make sure I’m not the last,” McClellan said after casting her ballot. “And, I have a responsibility to be a mentor and help pave the way for other Black women, whether it’s, you know, running for federal office or running at local or state and to just help as many as I can to succeed.”

Raised in Petersburg, Virginia, McClellan was elected to the House of Delegates in 2005 and won a 2017 special election for state Senate after McEachin was elected to Congress in 2016.

In 2020, she launched a bid for governor, eventually coming in third in the 2021 Democratic primary. Her bid for the US House was a “level up” from her delegate and gubernatorial campaigns, which helped her prepare for this campaign, she told CNN.

“That I had that team ready to go when the special came and it made it very easy to build a very fast campaign. And that the importance of having not only a message that resonates with voters but the resources to communicate it. That both are equally important and having the importance of a field organization, you really need all three, and I was able to pull all three together in a very short amount of time,” she said.

McClellan won the Democratic nomination for the 4th Congressional District in December, defeating fellow state Sen. Joe Morrissey and two other candidates in a “firehouse primary,” which was conducted by party officials across a handful of pop-up voting locations. She took 85% of the vote to Morrissey’s 14%, according to the Virginia Democratic Party. McClellan was backed by party leaders and groups, including House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark and the moderate-backing Democratic Majority for Israel PAC.

During her time in the General Assembly, McClellan has pushed legislation on several issues, including climate, gun reform and education. In 2020, a bill rolling back restrictions on abortion rights that she sponsored in the state Senate was signed into law by then-Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat.

She spearheaded the Voting Rights Act of Virginia, which was signed into law in 2021 and aimed to eliminate voter suppression and intimidation in the commonwealth. McClellan also sponsored her chamber’s resolution that helped Virginia become the 38th state to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment, which bans discrimination on the basis of sex and guarantees equality for women under the Constitution. (In 2022, state Attorney General Jason Miyares, a Republican, withdrew Virginia from a legal effort to have the Equal Rights Amendment recognized as the 28th Amendment to the Constitution.)

McClellan told CNN she plans to continue her work on issues including voting rights, education and access to health care, but she may be met with challenges in the US House. Republicans’ majority in the chamber makes the possibility of passing Democratic-backed priorities slim. And Republicans in the Senate, although still in the minority, have already blocked advancement of previous voting rights measures.

“I was in the minority party for 14 years here,” McClellan said of her time in Richmond. “I learned two things. One, you really need to listen and understand why people believe what they believe, where they are coming from. And when you do that, sometimes you’ll find common ground,” she said. “So, start from that and then see how far you can go. If you can’t find common ground, then persist until you succeed, and I’ve had success doing both at the state level.”

McClellan said she is interested in joining the Armed Services, Agriculture and Foreign Affairs Committees, though said she’d be “happy with whatever I get.” She said she is also excited to join the Congressional Black Caucus.

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

Democrat Aaron Rouse appeared to clinch the special election for Virginia’s 7th state Senate district on Tuesday in yet another victory for his party, which was already riding high from a better-than-expected midterm election.

The race was a nail-biter, with Rouse scraping by over Republican opponent Kevin Adams with less than 1% of the vote, according to unofficial election results. Still, the flip will be seen as a major win by the party and will expand its majority in the commonwealth’s state Senate. The split in the chamber will now stand at 22-18.

Rouse declared victory shortly after the unofficial vote tallies were counted.

“THANK YOU!” he tweeted Tuesday night. “With your support, and the support of voters from across Virginia Beach and Norfolk, we have won this Special Election. No rest for the weary – tomorrow, we head to Richmond to get to work for Virginia families.”

His party also hailed the victory, with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee tweeting Tuesday night that it “will help Dems defend our majority in the VA Senate this fall!”

Rouse, a Virginia Beach city council member and former NFL player, will replace Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) in the seat that she vacated after she defeated former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) in the November U.S. congressional elections.

The seventh state Senate district includes much of the Virginia Beach area and parts of Norfolk. Rouse’s victory is significant due to the district’s Republican lean. Kiggans won the seat by just less than a point in 2019, while Biden won the district by 10 points in 2020. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) won the seat during the state’s 2021 gubernatorial campaign. And in 2022, Kiggans trailed Luria by four points in precincts within the state Senate district, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Rouse’s victory is also significant because it provides Democrats with an extra vote against any measure that could restrict abortion access in the commonwealth. The issue featured heavily in the race and underscored its viability for Democrats as they look toward the November general elections and the 2024 presidential election.

[sa7abnews]

Daughter of Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Will be Nominated as New Leader

New Post has been published on https://sa7ab.info/2024/08/16/daughter-of-former-thai-prime-minister-thaksin-shinawatra-will-be-nominated-as-new-leader/

Daughter of Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Will be Nominated as New Leader

BANGKOK — Thailand’s populist Pheu Thai party on Thursday said it will nominate its party leader, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, in a Parliament vote for the country’s new leader after former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed by a court order over an ethical violation.

Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is seen as force behind Pheu Thai. He was the first Thai politician ever to win an overall majority of seats. The residual popularity of Thaksin is a factor in the support for Paetongtarn.

If Paetongtarn is approved by Parliament’s vote, which is scheduled for Friday, she will become Thailand’s second female prime minister, and the country’s third leader from the Shinwatra family after her father and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra.

Sorawong Thienthong, secretary-general of Pheu Thai, told reporters at Parliament on Thursday that the party executives would be meeting later in the day to decide on its prime ministerial nomination in Parliament, with a vote scheduled for Friday.

Pheu Thai’s Srettha was ousted on Wednesday after less than a year in office. The Constitutional Court found him guilty of a serious ethical breach regarding his appointment of a Cabinet member who was jailed in connection with an alleged bribery attempt.

It was the second major ruling in a week to shake Thai politics. The same court last week dissolved the progressive and main opposition Move Forward party, which won last year’s general election but was blocked from power, saying it violated the Constitution by proposing an amendment to a law against defaming the country’s royal family. The party has already regrouped as the People’s Party.

Pheu Thai’s ruling coalition partners have already given their endorsement for the party’s candidate, including the Bhumjaithai party, which came third in the election, and the pro-military Phalang Pracharath and United Thai Nation parties.

Anutin Charnvirakul, the Bhumjaithai party’s candidate and leader is seen as another frontrunner, though he said he would not contest Friday’s vote against a candidate from Pheu Thai.Read More: Why Thailand’s Political Crisis Feels Familiar—and What’s Needed to Break the Cycle

Pheu Thai has two eligible candidates that were put up for the general election in 2023. One is Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who is seen as a real patriarch behind Pheu Thai. Another is Chaikasem Nitisiri, 75, a former Minister of Justice who served in the Pheu Thai government led by Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra and was removed by a coup in 2014.

Pheu Thai finished second in last year’s election but was given a chance to form a government after the winners, reformist Move Forward party, was blocked from taking power by the previous Senate, a military-appointed body.

Move Forward was then excluded from the coalition by Pheu Thai, who went on to join hands with parties affiliated with the previous military-backed government that ousted it in a coup. The move drew criticism from some of its supporters but party officials say that it was necessary to break the deadlock and start reconciliation after decades of deep political divisions.

The former senators were given special power to veto a prime ministerial candidate by the constitution adopted in 2017 under a military government. That power expired when their term ended in May, however. New members of the Senate, selected in a convoluted process last month, do not retain the veto.

A candidate now needs just a majority from the lower house, or at least 247 votes. The House of Representatives now has 493 sitting members after six were banned from politics as a result of Move Forward’s dissolution. Another lawmaker of the Bhumjaithai party is suspended awaiting a court ruling.

While Pheu Thai’s key coalition partners endorsed its candidate, all of them reiterated that they would not support a proposal to amend the royal defamation law which became a key issue during last year’s election. Pheu Thai discussed the issue during the election campaign but has toned down significantly after becoming the government.

The law, also known as Article 112 in Thailand’s criminal codes, protects the monarchy from criticism with penalties of up to 15 years in jail per offense. Critics say the law is often wielded as a tool to quash political dissent.

The People’s Party, new home for lawmakers of the dissolved Move Forward, said Thursday that it will not vote to approve a candidate from Pheu Thai on Friday. Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said the party will continue its duty as an opposition.

[dankusner]

Molly Cook Makes History as the First Openly LGBTQ Texas Senator

Molly Cook, a 32-year-old emergency room nurse and community organizer, has made history as the first openly LGBTQ member of the Texas Senate.

A sixth-generation Texan, Cook’s achievement marks a significant milestone for representation in the Texas Legislature.

“Today, we get to celebrate our fantastic, well-deserved, historic win,” Sen. Cook said the morning of May 29 after securing her Democratic primary win in Texas State District 15, a seat that has been blue for decades.

“Winning a Texas Senate seat is a big deal, and it tastes extra-sweet because it is borne of sheer grit, determination, and teamwork. We have organized for years, stayed true to our values, and built momentum that extends beyond this election. Thank you to the team, donors, voters, and volunteers. Let’s take a moment to root ourselves in gratitude and bask in our community—and let’s get to work.”

Cook is the incumbent senator after having won the special election on May 4 to fill the remainder of John Whitmire’s term.

The long-time senator resigned in December of 2023 after winning the Houston Mayor’s seat.

Now that Sen. Cook is the Democratic candidate for the November general election, she will most likely spend the next four years in Austin.

A native Houstonian with a bachelor’s degree from UT in Austin and a graduate degree in nursing and public health from Johns Hopkins University, she plays the harp, practices yoga, and has a senior Chihuahua.

And she’s a grassroots specialist.

“Today, we get to celebrate our fantastic, well-deserved, historic win. Winning a Texas Senate seat is a big deal, and it tastes extra-sweet because it is borne of sheer grit, determination, and teamwork.” — Senator Molly Cook

Cook volunteered with Fair for Houston, a group that helped pass Prop. B to restructure the Houston-Galveston Area Council Board, and also worked on Beto O’Rourke’s gubernatorial campaign.

She joined Stop TxDOT I-45 (a grassroots organization promoting equitable, sustainable transportation in Houston, Harris County, and Texas) to fight TxDOT’s planned expansion of I-45.

Her many responsibilities as a volunteer included implementing communication and advocacy strategies, developing volunteer management systems, coordinating phone banks and door-knocking, disseminating information to the public, advocating through interviews with the media, running the bi-weekly general meetings, training and on-boarding new members, and event planning.

She also frequently delivered public comments before Houston City Council, Harris County Commissioner’s Court, the Houston-Galveston Area Council, the Texas Transportation Commission, and the Texas Legislature.

“My favorite part of working with Stop TxDOT 1-45 was the opportunity to grow relationships with community members, advocacy organizations, and elected officials,” she says.

That experience served her well when she ran for the senate seat the first time against Whitmire, who had already announced his run for mayor of Houston, in 2022.

She lost that race by 58 percent to 42 percent—the biggest opponent Whitmire had faced in decades.

When the open seat came up for the Democratic primary election on March 5 of this year, she placed second in a six-candidate field to State Representative Jarvis Johnson with 21 percent of the vote to his 36 percent.

Jarvis blamed low voter turnout for his loss in the special election.

Houston’s spring storm season has not slowed her down.

After being sworn in by Judge Steve Duble at 5:30 p.m. on May 16 to fill Whitmire’s unexpired term, a rare derecho blew through Houston with torrential rains and straight-line winds up to 100 miles per hour, wreaking havoc on the Heights and downtown, causing power outages to almost a million customers, downing power lines and trees, and causing seven deaths.

“It was a whirlwind first few hours,” Cook said of her first day as a state senator.

And on the afternoon of the Democratic runoff, another freak thunderstorm blew in, shutting down power to hundreds of thousands and closing one election site early.

She still won the race, drawing 50.2 percent of the vote to Johnson’s 49.8 percent.

But with a low turnout of just 18,782 voters, she won by less than 80 votes.

Still, it was an historic win for the LGBTQ community.

“Senator Molly Cook’s win last night in the primary runoff was not just a win for her campaign, but a win for our entire community,” said Austin Davis Ruiz, president of the Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus.

“She first made herstory earlier this month by becoming the first openly LGBTQ+ person elected to the Texas Senate, and we know she is going to be a champion for all communities in Austin. In a time when we’re seeing increased attacks on the LGBTQ+ community—specifically, on the trans community—this win is a reaffirmation that LGBTQ+ Texans matter; that we are powerful. As a community, we will continue fighting against draconian laws that seek to limit our rights and that seek to legislate us from existence. But let us be clear: we are not going anywhere. We want to congratulate Senator Cook on a hard-fought campaign, and we look forward to supporting her re-election campaign come November.”

[scotianostra]

“Stop the world, Scotland wants to get on”

The words of Winnie Ewing after her win Hamilton for the Scottish National Party in a by-election on 2nd November 1967.

Winifred Ewing became only the second SNP MP to be elected to Westminster. The result was a shock for the other Scottish parties and especially for Labour which had taken 71.2 per cent of the vote at the previous general election. 

The Nationalists, who had been written off as a spent force, suddenly seemed to be staging a dramatic recovery. The first party to react to this challenge was the Conservatives. The following year their leader Ted Heath made a commitment to advancing Scottish home rule at the party's Perth conference - the so-called 'Declaration of Perth.' 

A  poor showing in the 1970 general election, where they lost Hamilton and took only one other seat, the Western Isles, of course led to the shelving of Heath's plans, betrayed again by Westminster with false promises.

Later electoral successes for the SNP led the other parties to re-examine their attitude to Scottish autonomy. This is how the Daily Record (which had already hired Ewing as one of their columnists) reported her arrival at the Commons and her swearing-in.

Scotland's first Nationalist MP for 20 years yesterday took her seat in the House of Commons. It was Winnie Ewing's day - and a proud day it was. As she passed smiling broadly and giving the thumbs up sign to a cheering avenue of nearly 600 supporters, the fragile-looking heroine of Hamilton said: 'This is a wonderful feeling. I don't think any woman in Scotland could ask for more. I'm proud to be here for Scotland.'

On her new role in the corridors of power, she declared, 'Of course I expect to make an impact . . . not today and perhaps not tomorrow . . . but certainly before my time at Westminster is up.'

After the hard slog of the Hamilton by-election, this was the hard-earned icing on the cake. Earlier a railway special emblazoned with the SNP crest emptied 250 supporters onto the platform at King's cross. In the pre-dawn darkness banners waved and a lone piper played 'Scotland the Brave.' The glare of television arc lights recorded the tartan triumph.

Winnie was joined on the overnight express from Glasgow by party members and kindred spirits in Hamilton and Edinburgh.

And for 400 miles the whisky flowed fast and song flowed faster. But in spite of yesterday's pomp and cermony, it was also a family day.

Winnie was accompanied by her husband Stewart and the children - Fergus 10, Terry 3 and Anabelle 7.

At King's Cross they were met by cars to match the mood. Three all-Scottish [Hillman] imps whisked the Ewings to their Kensington hotel whilst special buses took supporters to a victory breakfast.

Meanwhile party members held a summit meeting with Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists at London's Caxton Hall. The hall was festooned with banners and placards, including one on the Boston Tea Party theme, 'taxation without representation is tyranny'.

Back at the hotel, Winnie was searching for a lost sock. As she helped the children dress, parliament was still three hours and three miles away.

Then Dad arrived on the scene to take the family sight-seeing while Winnie left for a trial run through of the afternoon's ceremony.

She was greeted at the gate of the House by Manus Boyle, a Scots bobby.

'Welcome to London, madam,' he said. Then he turned 'She's rather sweet isn't she? She's bound to cause quite a stir.'

Then at 2.35, the climax, Winnie in purple costume - with a sprig of lucky heather - walked with her family through the crowds and into the commons. The Hope of Hamilton had become the Wonder of Westminster.

Daily Record, 17 November 1967

Winnie Ewing’s husband Stewart was so certain of victory that, according to the Advertiser of the time, he won £1500 on a bet placed with Ladbrokes.

After losing her seat three years later  Ewing returned to Westminster as MP for Moray and Nairn in February 1974 when the SNP won six seats and although her majority declined in the October election that same year which saw 11 SNP candidates elected, she held on and became the SNP’s spokesperson on external affairs and the European Economic Community.

Winnie became a prominent Member of the European Parliament (MEP) in 1975.

It was during her time as an MEP that she acquired the nickname ‘Madame Ecosse’ because of her strong advocacy of Scotland. By 1987 she had been elected the SNP party president and in 1995 she had become Britain’s longest-serving MEP but gave up the role in 1999, instead becoming a Member of the Scottish Parliament, where she represented the Highlands and Islands.

On  May 12th 1999 Winnie entered the history books once more with the words

“The Scottish Parliament which adjourned on the 25th of March in the year 1707 is hereby reconvened”.

On a personal note I never seen my gran as a political person, but she had a picture of Winnie Ewing on her wall. Winnie turned 92 in last July. 

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

The U.S. Senate acquitted President Trump on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress on Wednesday — the end of a trial that lasted about three weeks. The chamber’s Republicans blocked Democratic motions to call witnesses during the trial and then voted to acquit Trump. The votes were almost entirely along party lines. All 47 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents voted for both articles of impeachment. Mitt Romney of Utah was the only senator from either party to break party ranks, voting in favor of the abuse of power article and against the obstruction charge.

The final votes were 48-52 against the abuse of power charge, and 47-53 against the obstruction charge.

Trump is only the third president to be impeached in U.S. history. He is also the third president to be acquitted in the Senate. (Richard Nixon is not one of the three, as he resigned before a full House vote or Senate trial.)

Trump is the first president, however, who will stand for reelection after an impeachment and acquittal — Andrew Johnson did not run after his impeachment and acquittal in 1868, and Bill Clinton could not run after his impeachment and acquittal because of term limits.

In other words, the circumstances of Trump’s impeachment are unique. Viewed narrowly, nothing has really changed — Trump remains in office, and is likely to continue to disregard traditional norms and, at times, core democratic values. His approval rating isn’t great, but it hasn’t meaningfully gone up or down during the impeachment process. But in part because Trump will now run for reelection, the impeachment process has a number of important implications.

1. Acquittal could result in Trump feeling that he has the license to do whatever he wants until November — and potentially beyond.

There is clear evidence that Trump, using both his official government aides and his private lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, postponed both a White House visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine as he pushed for the Ukrainians to announce an investigation of the Bidens. So the Republicans in the House and the Senate, by refusing to join with Democrats to force Trump from office, have effectively exonerated the president for actions that are arguably both illegal (according to the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office) and authoritarian (according to experts on authoritarianism). By leaving Trump in office, Republicans have to some extent also validated the very expansive views of the president’s authority and power that Trump’s lawyers invoked in defending him against impeachment.

Republicans in Congress also essentially consented to the president circumventing the legislative branch. Congress authorized military aid to Ukraine, but Trump refused to release it unless Ukraine complied with a condition (investigate the Bidens) that Congress likely never would have sanctioned. Giuliani essentially was directing U.S. foreign policy on Ukraine, even though he was not confirmed by Congress, and Congress did not know the extent of his involvement until it was discovered by the press.

So post-acquittal, what will Trump do next? Does he withhold foreign aid from other nations if they refuse to investigate the eventual Democratic nominee? Does Trump’s administration, which refused to comply with subpoenas and document requests during the House’s impeachment investigation, basically disregard any future attempts at congressional oversight? Have Republicans in Congress left the country and the world with an American president who believes he is essentially above the law? The stakes here are enormous.

The answer to those questions, in my view, is maybe, as opposed to a clear yes. Remember, one of the defenses of Trump by congressional Republicans throughout this process has been that Ukraine eventually did get the military aid. The White House released the aid on Sept. 11, two days after the House announced it was opening an inquiry into the president’s actions regarding Ukraine. So it’s not clear that Republicans in Congress have actually condoned the idea that aid to other countries from the U.S. can or should be conditioned on those nations agreeing to investigate Trump’s political rivals. And perhaps Trump won’t actually push another foreign government to investigate a rival because he wants to avoid criticism, minimize the potential for a second impeachment or, yes, because he now understands it’s improper.

So Trump may not have a full green light to do whatever he wants. But it’s closer to green than it is to red.

2. Republicans are fully, totally aligned with Trump.

No Republicans in the House and only one in the Senate (Romney) voted for Trump’s impeachment or removal. Influential voices in the party, such as GOP governors and Fox News anchors, stood by him throughout the process. Fewer than 10 percent of Republican voters support the president’s removal. Other than Sens. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and Romney, there were few prominent GOP voices who stated unequivocally that it was inappropriate for the president and his team to give any suggestion to Ukraine that U.S. aid would be tied to an investigation of the Bidens.

For some Republicans, this loyalty to Trump contradicts one of the core goals of most politicians: winning reelection. Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado, for example, is up for reelection in November in a Democratic-leaning state where Trump is not particularly popular.

He not only voted against Trump’s removal, but took a strong, public stance against having witnesses in the trial.

But Gardner and other senators seeking to retain seats Democrats are targeting this November, such as Susan Collins of Maine and Martha McSally of Arizona, may have played the politics of impeachment smartly. In a party where loyalty to Trump is highly valued, creating any real distance between you and the president may cost you Republican votes that you absolutely must have to win. And there’s no real guarantee that you’d pick up independent or Democratic votes in the bargain. In fact, given current levels of negative partisanship — where supporters of one party hate the other party more than they like their own — picking up support from anti-Trump voters seems highly unlikely.

3. Democrats don’t seem to have suffered any kind of impeachment backlash.

Democrats were leery of pushing for impeachment for much of 2019, amid the investigation of Trump by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. In Democrats’ view, a partisan impeachment backfired on congressional Republicans in the last few years of the Clinton presidency, and they wanted to avoid a similar backlash. I think that interpretation of the Clinton impeachment is a bit off. Republicans won control of the House, Senate and presidency in the 2000 elections, with Al Gore distancing himself from Clinton, who Gore viewed as a controversial figure in part because of the impeachment process.

Democrats felt forced to push for impeachment after Trump’s actions towards Ukraine became public. The impeachment process ended up with party-line votes, a result House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wanted to avoid. But there is little sign that voters have turned on Democrats. According to FiveThirtyEight’s trackers, Democrats lead on the congressional generic ballot, about half of Americans support removing Trump from office and Trump remains fairly unpopular.

4. The 2020 election will be an all-out partisan war.

OK, you might say that we knew this already, and maybe we did. But congressional Democrats have, in their actions and words, suggested that Trump is unfit to be president and should be removed. Trump, through his actions and words, has shown that he will do basically anything to keep power. Already, America can at times feel like it’s in a non-military civil war, with two competing coalitions that question not just the other coalition’s policy views, but its values and its Americanness.

A Democratic nominee, particularly Biden, is likely to campaign on the idea that he or she is the last defense against Trump turning America into a less democratic and tolerant nation. Trump rose to power as the champion of people who felt aggrieved and ignored by an increasingly liberal, multicultural America. Post-impeachment, Trump is likely to make aggrievement even more a core part of his message–with the president likely to cite his own impeachment as example of how and his supporters must defend themselves against an out-of-control American left.

5. The impeachment process put on full display deeper problems with America’s democracy.

There’s an active debate among scholars and journalists about whether to describe American politics by focusing on polarization (the two sides are really divided) or by focusing on the radicalization of the Republican Party (so one side is really causing the division). Another disagreement is whether American voters are really divided or if the division exists mainly among political elites.

The impeachment process shows how these ideas are all interconnected — and how it’s hard to tell a simple story about what’s wrong with America’s democracy and who is to blame. Trump’s actions toward Ukraine were radical — Barack Obama did not try to have a foreign government investigate Romney in 2012. Republican elites generally defended Trump’s conduct. So did Republican voters. But polls showed some wariness about Trump’s actions toward Ukraine among a sizable bloc of GOP voters (about a fourth in some polls). That Trump skeptic, however, wasn’t really represented on Fox News or Capitol Hill. So Republican politicians and Trump are probably driving polarization but also responding to GOP voters, who choose Trump over more than a dozen more traditional candidates in 2016 and still strongly approve of him now.

Post-impeachment, we are left with a lot of unknowns that were unimaginable five years ago. Will the American president allow a truly free and fair election? Has he created a precedent where future presidents will use government power to investigate their political rivals? If he wins a second term, what other democratic norms and values will he flout?

[inescapcble]

This isn’t really an intro as much as an UPDATE featuring a biography and some changes I’ve realised as I’ve gotten to know Leah’s character better, but given that I’d still recommend y’all give this a once over. Thanks to everyone for getting involved with her and my other characters, and I’m excited to do so much more with her. <3

BASIC INFO ;

Name: Leontine Artemisia Morgan

Nicknames: Leah (by select friends & family only), Madam Prez (slang)

Gender & Pronouns: cis female, she/her pronouns

Age & DOB: Forty | 14 February, 1980 | Anchorage, Kentucky

Zodiac Sign: Aquarius

Orientations: Bisexual / biromantic (with a lean towards women)

Relationship Status: In a ( secret ; open ) relationship with Princess Ivana of the Netherlands ( @ofivana​ )

Nationality: American

Religion: Agnostic

Neuroses: Undiagnosed Asperger’s syndrome (note: I, the mun, have diagnosed Asperger’s!)

FAMILIAL ;

Hometown: Anchorage, Kentucky

Father: Kenneth Morgan, CEO of Morgan Financial

Mother: Candace Morgan (d. 2019)

Siblings: Bocephus ( @hxll-0​ ) and Elise ( @ofchampagnetears​ ) Morgan (b. 1992)

OTHER ;

Languages Spoken: English, Latin, French, Italian, German (incl. Swiss, Austrian and Bavarian German), Spanish, Portuguese

Educational Background: Institut Le Rosey, Harvard University, John Hopkins University

Occupational History:

1. Intern / Political Assistant at Capitol Hill (2002-06)

2. Representative for Maryland’s 2nd District (2006 special election — 2010)

3. Junior Senator for Maryland (2010-2016)

4. 45th President of the United States of America (20th January, 2017—)

Achievements: Youngest and first female president of the United States; shortest initiation in Society history. If I listed her political achievements we’d be here a while, folks.

THE SOCIETY ;

Codename: Adrasteia 

Meaning: Adrasteia means “the inescapable,” which I chose as her label. It’s another name for Nemesis, the goddess of divine retribution, which i found quite fitting because she’s always managed to rise above people and attain what she wants, even if it is through using her parents’ money and power to her advantage at least in part. And now she’s the defender of the free world, in the most powerful office in the world — don’t make an enemy of the inescapable, for the inescapable will always get you.

Traditionalist or Reformist: Leah struggles to shoe-horn herself into either camp, but she supposes in general due to her own ideas that she’s some kind of reformist, even if that reform doesn’t include party islands and hedonistic displays. She prefers more power for women within the Society; more space for non-established families and for people to get in on their talent alone.

Goals In The Society: Her own advancement. To make her rowdy siblings see their own potential, and perhaps find a bond with them that feels less like she’s that cousin you don’t see often and don’t know very well. Ultimately, to be the Grand Archon, where she can make the most positive change. To use the Society to get rid of the Twenty-Second Amendment so she has more time to create further equally positive change for America. 

Opinion On The Society: It’s something she was always meant to be part of, but something that needs to be tweaked to fit the time that it’s in. Some people’s definition of ‘tweak’ is too far, but ultimately the most important thing is that she’s in it. Certainly she values it as an honour.

PERSONALITY ;

MBTI: ENTJ-A

Enneagram: Eight, with a Seven wing

Temperament: Choleric

Hogwarts House: Slytherin

Inspirations: Birgitte Nyborg (Borgen) | Kidz & SOS (Take That songs, inverse) | Peggy Carter (Marvel Cinematic Universe) | Official Secrets (film)

Tropes: The Ace, Armour-Piercing Question, America Saves The Day, The Chessmaster, Contemplative Boss, Married To The Job, Workaholic, Badass In Charge, Brainy Brunette, Deadpan Snarker, Iron Lady

YOUR MUSE AS ;

A piece of art: The Kiss by Gustav Klimt

A song: Under The Ladder by Mélovin

A book: How To Use Your Enemies by Baltasar Gracián

A movie: Official Secrets

A TV show: Borgen

A historical era: Ancient Greece if she had to choose one, but she’s more one to look to the future than the past.

A historical figure: Artemisia of Caria

A colour: Royal blue

An animal: Lioness (she’s got the name for a reason.)

YOUR MUSE’S DREAM ;

JOB: She’s sat in the Oval Office, folks, she’s doing it.

VACATION: Leontine doesn’t have time for vacations, especially not if she’s attending Society events, but if she did, she’d like to go to the Acropolis.

DAY: One day where Bo and Elise are calm; getting to go on a real date with Ivy and be proud of it.

AS A CHILD: To be President of the United States.

LAST NIGHT: I can’t tell you, because she didn’t sleep long enough to reach the appropriate stage and dream.

THAT THEY GAVE UP ON: She’s never given up on a dream. Never once, not unless she realises it was wrong in the first place. She’s not someone who gives up.

THAT THEY HAVE RIGHT NOW: Constitutional change; getting her siblings into the Society

BIOGRAPHY ;

TWELVE years — that was how long Leontine Artemisia was the sole daughter of Kenneth and Candace Morgan, but also how long it took them to forget why. Through generations of the Morgan bloodline the same issue had persisted; a work-ethic that was either partly or entirely based upon an unattainable ideal of perfection. 

Which, in itself, led to relationships like the parents’ own. Lacking in healthy emotional expression ( particularly on the side of the born Morgan, less so in his softer-hearted wife ) and with at least some business element regarding a ‘practical’ or ‘advantageous’ match. It wasn’t an arranged marriage, not quite, as they had found each other — mostly — alone, but neither could it be said to be a ‘love match’ the likes of which fill the daydreams of any hopeless romantic. 

And then, from there, they hadn’t realised how it would impact any child of theirs until it was too-little, too-late to do anything about it. When the nifty Morgan motto had already taken hold, dug itself into the young girl, going deeper with every comment Kenneth made about how she could be ‘better,’ or ‘how do you expect to be like me or your grandfather?’ 

It became Candace’s — being the far more empathetic parent, the one who was there when Leah fell and who had attached herself to her first-born in a way she would not attach quite the same with inevitable additions — goal to get her as far away from her husband’s influence as possible, so that she might have half a chance at coming fully into her own. Except, prior to achieving that goal, the terrors ( I’m sorry, the twins, but they were, and are, terrors ) came into the trio’s lives, and Leah was both no longer alone, and more alone than ever.

Which suited her fine, or at least she said it did. After all, she was still her mother’s favourite, anyone could see it. Could feel it, where Kenneth had turned his attention to the young babes to see which child would offer him the legacy he craved; because Leah’s goal — politics; the highest seat in the land, even then, regardless if she had to claw her way up there with her nails or not — didn’t particularly interest him at the time ( Morgan Financial needed an heir, and he was consistently frustrated at his eldest daughter’s disinterest ) and would interest him even less after she came back with European ideas from her next destination: the Institut Le Rosey in Switzerland, where she would meet a whole host of future A-Listers and members of the Society, including one Étienne de Polignac.

When she returned from Le Rosey at the age of eighteen, her next destination was already settled: the famed Harvard University, to study political science. Of course, she could be nothing but the hardest worker, something she would not let her university boyfriend — as much as she loved him at the time — get in the way of; it was clear Kenneth’s message had gotten through to her ( too well, as she would never feel good enough, always striving to impress him, when it was impossible ) when she chose career over her love life upon graduation. 

Because from a young age she had set her eyes upon the White House desk, organised her life around that ultimate dream; pursued law and civics, and abandoned the healthy social lives of others her age. While other members of her family could have been considered high-society socialites, all she knew was her own ambition. Quickly Leah herself became the pedestal for her siblings to follow — except, not her politics, as Kenneth would indicate by sending the twins to Phillips Exeter rather than Le Rosey — and was a point of pride when her parents decided she ought to go to public events; after all, she had to learn how to relate to people, didn’t she? Her first motto, and a tattoo she has that’s always hidden by her clothing, is: change your stars, if you try, you’ll succeed.

Leontine moved to Maryland after Harvard, where she worked as a political advisor at Capitol Hill for one of the Democratic representatives ( whilst balancing a second degree, in international relations, at Johns Hopkins University due to its proximity to Capitol Hill ) until she was of constitutional age to stand for election in the House. She won Maryland’s second district — rather than standing in her birth / home state of Kentucky — and then, upon turning thirty, became the junior senator for the state; however, these early political years were all overshadowed by one event: the war in Iraq, with which she vehemently disagreed, and which has continued to influence her strong anti-war stance throughout the rest of her political career.

‘The rest’ of her political career including her run for President in the 2016 election, resulting in the thirty-six year old defeating Republican nominee Donald Trump in the most resounding fashion since the Nixon landslide. And even then the opponent managed to win Massachusetts; not so here. 

She grew up privileged, of course she did, and she’s found her balance between being at peace with and being very aware of what led her to where she is today: the Oval Office, the young trailblazer wherever she went. Leah Morgan’s ‘brand’ is record-breaking, perhaps ( after all, she very quickly charmed people to her favour to admit her into the society as a 25-year-old initiate, a Societal record that still to this day stands. ) 

Leah’s mother Candace, however, was killed in a ‘car crash’ last Thanksgiving, a tragedy which she has not processed; she hasn’t any understanding of how to deal with grief — none of the Morgans do — so, at some point, it’s all going to come back to her.

But she was raised on ‘this is good, but you can always do better,’ and that shows more than anything in this woman with a lot of dreams and even more ambition.

[real-jaune-isms]

RWBY Volume 7 Chapter 9 Rundown

I felt very satisfied for the first 90% of this episode but then I got kinda annoyed in the literal final 40 seconds before the credits. But that’s just my own growing agitation for Cinder, so it’s fine. We’ll get to that later.

There isn’t exactly a very happy vibe at the start of the chapter though, as it opens on the cold streets of Mantle as the cold is now likely setting in something fierce and people have realized the heat is gone. As Maria and Pietro welcome folks into the shelter of his pharmacy, some of those inside wonder if this same problem is affecting Atlas as well, and if this dangerous change was done intentionally by the city on high. The two kind elders stare up at Atlas with growing concern.

In the dinning room once more, the council continues to bring up criticisms that have been leveled at Ironwood, specifically that he has two council seats. He tries to counter there are checks and balances to make sure he doesn’t misuse his authority, but they interject that he has been ignoring those regulations and making major decisions all on his own. The General tries to defend himself and say he had no intention of running amiss of the rules, but Councilman Sleet reminds him that intention and action are not always the same and his actions have been wrong. Speaking of making wrong decisions without meaning to, a faunus servant comes in to whisper concerning news in Jacques ear, presumably that the SDC Heating Grid has been off for a while and people are freezing. And it was done on his authorization. Guess Watts just loves to frame people. As Jacques urges the staff member to check the system again and grows visibly concerned, Sleet notices he’s not paying attention and pulls him back into the conversation. He tries to act like he knows what’s going on and agrees with what Sleet was saying, then claims he has no further concerns or questions. But Robyn is by no means done yet, badgering Ironwood about all his secrecy and fears that he refuses to share with the council. He says he fears Atlas becoming a tragic site like Vale or attacked like Haven, but she knows there’s more to it and wants to use her lie detector Semblance to force the truth out of him and test if he’s hiding something. The pressure is palpable, and we know he wants to be more open after the talk he had with Oscar...

But then the door behind Jacques slams open to reveal Weiss with a Phoenix Wright worthy OBJECTION to this one sided accusation. She knows the real culprit for the killing of anti-Ironwood speakers, and the fraudulent election, and she claims Jacques not only knows him in name but knows him personally. With such an accusatory prelude she sets Willow’s Scroll on the table and projects the video big enough that Camilla and Sleet can recognize Arthur Watts, who was thought to be dead since the “Paladin Incident” years ago. Papa Schnee feigns confusion and ignorance, but Daddy Ironwood stands in steely determination and tells Weiss to play the video. It shows the tail-end of Jacques conversation with the bad Doctor, how he hates Ironwood for the embargo and wishes he could fire everyone to save money, and we get to see just what Watts had in mind for Jacques to have his cake and eat it too. Watts is pissy and petulant that Ironwood disgraced him despite his genius contributions and wants to return the humiliation he received ten-fold. All Jacques has to do is give Watts his login for the Atlas Network and promise he’ll make ol’ Jimmy’s life a nightmare, and Watts will manipulate the polls to guarantee he gets that Council seat. Robyn seems very pissed off to learn the voting was rigged and she would have actually won like she had hoped. Jacques, or at least the version in the video, is delighted at the offer and commends Watts for his cutthroat “business” strategy. Ironwood has had enough of this, and Weiss stops the video so they can all glare at Jacques. He tries to get up to run and claims the video is fake. Sleet tells him to SIT. BACK. DOWN. but instead he bolts for the door only to find Weiss’ Knight standing guard and ready to take him down. By the power vested in her by the Kingdom of Atlas, Weiss arrests her father for treason... but maybe she doesn’t actually have the power to do that? It’s unclear but I definitely hope she can. Her entire relationship with her father has been based on him having power and control over her, her wanting to earn his approval and remain on his good side or suffer the consequences of his rage. The crux of her character arc has been recognizing her old way of living was unacceptable and finding ways to get free of that control and influence to become her own strong person. Now, through her hard work, she has more power than him and he has to do what she says or suffer the consequences of his actions against justice. But on the other hand you have to wonder what legal authority Huntsmen have to make arrests and the like. They’re not military or police officers, but they do handle more dangerous threats than the common man. If their job involves apprehending human criminals then they probably would be sanctioned to make arrests. To draw reference to another of my favorite shows, perhaps they are akin to deputized vigilantes like Green Arrow and his team on Arrow? They have specialized skills with which to handle threats the regular military and police aren’t trained enough for.

But breaking off from that topic and back down to one such criminal, Watts is standing on the street catching a snowflake in the palm of his glove before he sees people looting a store that I SWEAR is called Dust in the Wind. Desperate civilians have already started burning things to create a big enough fire so they can keep warm, and a few stolen Fire Dust crystals get thrown in to make it really flare up. Atlas soldiers are watching on and requesting advice on what to do. Glad they’re not stopping them forcefully since no one really knows the procedure for all the heat not working and this being the only way to live in warmth at the moment. Watts relishes in the chaotic moment and is joined by Tyrian.

We go back to the dining room where the adults stand around a sitting Jacques to continue interrogating him while the teens stand off to one side. As Ironwood berates the still defensive Schnee for stooping for such disgraceful lengths to get what he couldn’t fairly earn, Clover gets a blip in his earpiece and walks away to take the message, likely about the freezing crisis. Jacques warns Ironwood he’ll hurt his knees if he keeps jumping to such wild conclusions, but no avail. Better switch condiments, cuz that weak sauce ain’t working on the General. Now that he knows Watts is around and willing to cause trouble, all the loose ends are tying together quite smoothly. Since he made the Mantle security network he would know exactly how to manipulate it and work with Tyrian to do such violent acts and frame good people for it. Penny still seems pretty upset over her tarnished reputation because of that. And to top all of the scandalous deeds of Arthur Watts off, all of that was just to help Jacques cheat through the election. I should like to note that as Ironwood is giving Jacques the works he is backed by a smirking portrait of an armored Nicholas Schnee, as if even now the founder of this great company of his is amused by just how badly his son in law has fucked up royal. Jacques didn’t even consider the consequences of his alliance, he only saw the way it benefited him. There is blood on his hands for this, and he needs to be held accountable in a court of law for both his treason against the safety of his kingdom and the lives it lost. He is of course very much against this idea, all he intended was to win the election after all! But like Councilman Sleet said earlier, what you intend and what you are responsible for doing are not always the same thing. An excuse like that is not enough, and Robyn is physically enraged that he would try to trivialize the deaths of good people, to the point that she throws a chair across the room. Councilwoman Camilla asks the important question, what will Watts be able to do with the power Jacques gave him? They can only speculate into the grim infinitudes, until all their scrolls start buzzing with the concrete facts of just what he’s done. The heat is off, and Jacques can’t even log in to fix it anymore since Watts took his account and locked him out. The bastard tries to save his own hide and distance himself from the situation by saying he didn’t know Watts was planning this, but Winter tells him to SHUT. UP. and fix the heating grid, but he reveals what I did just now about no longer having access. Sleet voices the depressing obvious as Ironwood stares at his scroll and Robyn looks out the window, both in solemn concern: if the heat doesn’t come back on people WILL die. Ruby tries to get the General’s mind off of desperate what-ifs to focus on the facts of how things are right now. Since they know whose credentials Watts is using they can follow his network activity, but he would now have the ability to find out about the Amity project and get into its network. Fortunately, he hasn’t looked hard enough yet so neither he or Salem know about it. Weiss asks if they can lock the good doctor out, but he’s already set to work blocking their access instead. They can’t exactly trace him if he’s on the move so they need to lure him out so they can get to his access point. Robyn interjects, since she has been listening to all this cryptic talk and planning with no one paying any mind to her still being in earshot, that people as vastly different as Tyrian and Watts banding together seems rather farfetched without some larger factor. Their unanimous decision to go after Ironwood in particular seems even stranger with only one of them having much motive, and she still doesn’t get why Ironwood is keeping the Amity Tower a secret. James is quite shocked that she even knows about that, and I’m sure Blake and Yang will have a rather sheepish confession to make. 

But we don’t see that, because instead we bear witness to Atlesian Knight robots being sent in to dispel the rioters gathered around the massive fire. But as Pietro and Maria watch on in silent shock, the people of Mantle lash out hard at these cold metal symbols of a cold ruling society and smash two of the robots. But these heated emotions are the tipping point and the streets start lighting up red to warn the civilians. Grimm are coming, and they are coming in mass. Mammoth-like Megoliaths and swiftly vicious Sabyrs are charging at the massive gap in the border wall, and the assembled Atlas soldiers and robots are not enough to hold the line, while Manta aircraft on bombing runs do nothing to slow the pack or thin the numbers. The Sabyrs are the first to get in and demolish the robots at ground level, and unidentified avian Grimm fly over the heads of the soldiers on top of the wall.

The scene shifts again from that chaos to the dining room again for a calmer moment of building faith, as Robyn admits she now sees just how much Ironwood is trying to protect with all the work he’s doing and the secrets that means keeping. She recognizes he has genuine fear for what will happen if the truth comes out. But the moment is stalled there as Clover and Oscar burst in to inform everyone about the Grimm swarming into Mantle, and how the airfleet can’t do much of anything or else it might result in civilian casualties. Ironwood goes back into beard-stroking panic mode, this is precisely what he hoped wouldn’t happen. Clover urges him to send in ground support to handle the Grimm within the city, but Robyn insists nowhere in the city will be safe if it gets completely overrun. Evacuating people up to Atlas with the airfleet should be their priority. But Daddy Ironwood has to raise his voice, he can’t move the fleet for any evacuation measures or else Atlas would be vulnerable instead. He worked so hard to keep everyone safe, and it’s all falling to pieces in the worst way. But Oscar is there to offer his advice again, though Ironwood rudely rebuffs him that he doesn’t want that. He wants Ozpin’s advice, but Oscar tells him that’s not the fix all answer he wishes it were. Oz would have told him to keep secrets, but Ironwood already knew that wasn’t the right way to go and made his own new and better plan. That plan has failed, the General argues, but that just means the day he was preparing for is upon them already. It’s time to tell the truth and have faith that the world will accept it, starting with Robyn and the council. Ruby assures him, he will not be alone in this. That puts the wind back in his sails, and he starts making a plan. Oscar is probably best off going back to the Academy for safety, and Ironwood needs to have a talk with his critics. In the meantime, the huntresses and huntsmen need to head down into the fray to do what they do best. And that means everyone is coming, even Penny. They still trust and believe in her, and the people will too. Winter has a look of approval as Ruby starts calling the shots, she definitely sees growth from how unimpressive the young rose seemed at Beacon. Clover couldn’t have said it better himself, and they all go running out the door... past a servant who had been in the dining room a couple times last episode bringing in drinks. She watches the trained warriors all leave, and smirks. Creepy.

As everyone else heads out the door, Ruby and Oscar stop for a moment to try and talk, and of course they talk over each other and act like a couple of dorks. They both think that since Ironwood is revealing everything he knows, they ought to do the same. But a lot of the fans are just thinking how they seem like such a cute adorkable couple. Y’all know who I ship so I can’t say too much about this, but I do certainly think it’s fun how they get along so well and seem to be on the same wavelength. Anyway, Ruby wants to be the one to tell Ironwood but duty calls so it has to be Oscar. Marrow is not amused by their awkwardness, or by the fact that Ruby uses finger-guns. Still, the Ace Ops, Qrow, and the young huntsmen head down in an airship where Clover lays down a reminder that their priority is saving people not racking up a Grimm kill count. Ren seems very distressed, so Nora holds his hand and it seems to help a little. They both feel a bit safer being able to feel that they still have each other, and Blake and Yang share a look that seems to imply the same sentiment even if they’re not going to hold hands too. As the ship soars swiftly downward into the danger, we see a streak of danger soaring above them too.

Back to the political scene, Sleet and Camilla are quietly discussing the world changing whiplash they just had  from Ironwood telling them about Salem existing, and how they almost can’t believe it’s true but know he wouldn’t make something that serious up. Robyn, meanwhile, is just staring at the ground as if thinking to herself “I know I asked what he was hiding, but I immediately regret asking”. She looks over to the closed door, and we cut to the other side to see the General in his own mind shattering crisis. Oscar told him everything they know about Ozma and Salem’s past, how as far as they know she’s immortal and they can’t do a damn thing to change that. He’s understandably upset that Ozpin kept this from all of them, you can almost hear anguish and sadness in his voice, but Oscar affirms that it was for the sake of keeping hopes alive so they would stay motivated. Oscar also apologizes on behalf of RWBY and co. for likewise keeping it a secret, but they just didn’t know who could be trusted to know. Of all people Ironwood would understand that. But now was the time to bare it all, before anything terribly important was lost for good. It might be too late for that though, Ironwood’s hope seems pretty broken now. The poor boy tries to make sure the General is okay, to see what he’s going to do now that he knows all this, and for a second it seems like even he doesn’t know. But his head finds a firm place back on his shoulders and his gaze returns to the task at hand. Grand scheme matters will have to wait, they need to save Mantle. Oscar seems proud, says Ozpin would be too. Atlas is providing the hope it was always meant to, since such a marvel of ingenuity and power is supposed to be held to standards matched only by its altitude. I’m paraphrasing, but the way Oscar says it seems all too familiar to Ironwood, as if he was there to see Atlas get its start. It would seem there’s more of Ozpin in Oscar than even he realizes, or maybe there hasn’t been much Oscar himself in there for a little while?... But we don’t have time for that, because their transports have arrived and they need to go. The two agree that neither of them could handle any more surprises, but it’s the huntsmen and huntresses who are in for the surprise. 

A new Grimm called a Teryx that as you would expect resembles a pterodactyl has latched onto the ship and no matter what fancy flying Harriet does to shake it loose it’s not budging. All that comes of it is Jaune starting to get airsick for the first time since Volume 1 and the Grimm moving around to the starboard side and digging its talons into the wall, right between Blake and Yang’s heads. Any further to either side and one of them might have died. The news only gets worse as another Teryx dive bombs them and damages the starboard engine. They all agree now would be a good time to bail and just get to the ground, and Clover opens the side door... on the side where the Grimm is. As his copious luck would have it, the damaged engine breaks loose and takes the Teryx down in a ball of flame so they’re safe to jump. As the kids start jumping, Elm playfully tells Harriet not to stay on board too much longer and she responds with sarcastic thanks. Not friends my ass, they all get along so well! Harriet decides to be a little extra with her exit and punches the windshield to go out onto the roof, inviting Ruby to try and keep up. Ruby gives a smile with more purity than distilled mountain spring water and follows her. Clover and Qrow are the last to jump, and Clover tries to show off a little for his boyfriend.

We go back to Schnee Manor for the last time as Jacques is being taken away by soldiers and Willow watches from the front door. Whitley is sitting sadly on the stairs alone, and Willow looks over to him with a slight smile. Clearly, she feels like the worst is behind them and hopefully they can try to be a real family now, but he runs away up the stairs. I don’t blame the poor kid, he feels like he has no one now. His mom has always preferred to drown her despair in liquor over being a present parental figure, and his sisters see him as an annoyance whom they never give the time of day. His father was the only one who showed him any attention or guidance, and that was so he could mold the boy in his image. He played along and did as he was told because no one else was there for him to give him much choice. Whitley probably wants to get along and be cared about by his sisters, but they thought the worst of him because he chose to listen to the father they wanted nothing to do with. Its a tragedy of circumstances, and it gives new context to lots of old scenes. The poor kid probably was kinda hurt that Weiss didn’t even say hello or show joy in seeing him again when she arrived for the party last episode. I definitely hope these two can recover and find a happier life. But as Jacques is brought to the armored truck, complaining all the way, we instead focus on a member of the staff leaving rather nonchalantly: the same young woman we saw smirking at everyone leaving earlier. She even starts skipping and if you couldn’t tell the twist already the familiar creepy music should make it obvious; Neo is already in Atlas, and if she’s here then Cinder can’t be far behind. Neo goes to a locked room in an unknown building with wall to wall windows showing the city outside, and sure enough there’s the fiery cockroach herself waiting for her companion’s return. Neo was in disguise to do recon since Cinder would stick out too much in a crowd, and it seems she found what they’re looking for. That sounds quite ominous and troublesome, and I’m a little annoyed that at the first sign of the new interesting villains getting exposed and being in our heroes crosshairs we return to the old villains who’re still trying the same old shtick. Still, at this point they almost feel like the Pilaf gang from original Dragon Ball, once the worst thing our heroes had to deal with but are now practically comedy relief villains who still think they’re the top threat. I’m not that mad, I just don’t much like Cinder and her nefarious schemes anymore. Still, doesn’t detract from the great satisfying episode.

[patriotsnet]

How Many House Seats Did Republicans Win

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-house-seats-did-republicans-win/

How Many House Seats Did Republicans Win

Florida Vs California: How Two States Tackled Covid

2018 House Midterm Election Results Update – House Voting Results – How Many Seats? Blue Wave?

The researchers theorized that one reason for the change is that Democrats were in charge of states where people who had the virus first arrived in the country but Republicans were less stringent about safeguards, which could have contributed to their states ultimately higher incidence and death rates.

The early trends could be explained by high Covid-19 cases and deaths among Democratic-led states that are home to initial ports of entry for the virus in early 2020, the researchers wrote. However, the subsequent reversal in trends, particularly with respect to testing, may reflect policy differences that could have facilitated the spread of the virus.

The study, which which was published in the peer-reviewed American Journal of Preventive Medicine, examined Covid-19 incidence, death, testing, and test positivity rates from March 15 through December 15, 2020, when there were 16 million confirmed cases in the U.S. and 300,000 deaths. It focused on per-capita infection and death rates in the 26 GOP-led states and 24 Democratic-led states and Washington, D.C., and made statistical adjustments for issues such as population density.

But policy differences between the Republican and Democratic leaders emerged as a big factor for the reversal of the states fortunes, the study suggests.

One of the most concerning things last year is the politicization of public health restrictions, Lee said. Theyre not opinions, theyre based on evidence.

Opinionhow Can Democrats Fight The Gop Power Grab On Congressional Seats You Wont Like It

Facing mounting pressure from within the party, Senate Democrats finally hinted Tuesday that an emboldened Schumer may bring the For the People Act back for a second attempt at passage. But with no hope of GOP support for any voting or redistricting reforms and Republicans Senate numbers strong enough to require any vote to cross the 60-vote filibuster threshold, Schumers effort will almost certainly fail.

Senate Democrats are running out of time to protect Americas blue cities, and the cost of inaction could be a permanent Democratic minority in the House. Without resorting to nuclear filibuster reform tactics, Biden, Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may be presiding over a devastating loss of Democrats most reliable electoral fortresses.

How Did The Gop Gain In The House While Trump Lost Its Actually Pretty Simple

One of the increasingly prevalent arguments spun by President Trump and his allies when it comes to supposed voter fraud in the 2020 election is this: Republicans had, by and large, a pretty good election below the presidential level. They gained significant ground in the House and probably held the Senate as long as they dont lose both Georgia runoffs. So how on earth did Trump lose?

The answer is actually pretty simple: Our elections increasingly look more like parliamentary ones, and given that, the results make a ton of sense.

New data from the election-reform group FairVote sheds some light on how the battle for the House played out. The big takeaway: Our politics are increasingly less about people and incumbents and more about party. Weve been talking about increased polarization for many years, but the 2020 election really drove it home. The results for Congress affirm the fact that Republicans writ large lost the election, even though it might have been closer than many expected.

FairVote has for years studied an issue called incumbency bump i.e., how much an incumbent benefits relative to other members of their party thanks to already being in office. The conventional wisdom on incumbency is that its a big advantage that people might not like a politicians party or Congress as a whole, but if they know that politician well or have any doubts, theyll revert to supporting the person in the seat.

Recommended Reading: Why Are Republicans Wearing Blue Ties

Oc Supervisor Michelle Steel Defeats Rep Harley Rouda Flipping Socal Congressional Seat Back To Gop

Still, Republicans are buoyed as they look to 2022, when Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to seek another term. A U.S. Senate seat will be on the ballot along with other statewide offices, all held by Democrats.

Republicans see a target. Newsom is struggling with an economy battered by the virus, there is widespread discontent with the states shifting COVID restrictions and his credibility has been dented: He broke state rules when he and his wife were caught dining with 10 others at the toney French Laundry restaurant, sitting close together, mask-less. Newsom repeatedly has told Californians to stay home and wear masks.

We have a real opportunity, I think, to win statewide again, Patterson said.

Biden, despite his dominating win in the state, did not have coattails in key House races.

In the 25th District north of Los Angeles, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia held on for a 333-vote win over Democrat Christy Smith while running as a Trump apostle in a district with a 7.5-point Democratic registration edge. The son of a Mexican immigrant father, the former Navy combat pilot won the seat in a May special election after the resignation of former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill.

Young Kim defeated Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros in a rematch in the Democratic-leaning 39th District, anchored in Orange County. A former state lawmaker, she was born in South Korea and grew up in Guam.

Who Controls State Legislatures In States With Changes

Thirteen states were affected by the 2020 Census’ shift in congressional seats.;

States are given the task of redrawing districts when;they gain;or lose;seats.;

Michael Li, senior counsel for the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program,;said;the country could be poised for a battle over;gerrymandering, the practice of redrawing district lines to favor one party over the other or to suppress the vote of communities of color.

In some states, the process is fairer than others, he said, because they are not controlled by just one political party or they have instituted an independent redistricting committee, such as in Michigan. But for other states, the party in power stands to control the map.

Read Also: Republicans Are Stupid Donald Trump Quote

How Republicans Pulled Off A Big Upset And Nearly Took Back The House

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

There seemed to be one safe bet when it came to the 2020 election results: Democrats would easily hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives. Not only that, but the conventional wisdom held that Democrats would pick up more than the 235 seats they won in the 2018 midterm elections.

Why Did House Democrats Underperform Compared To Joe Biden

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The results of the 2020 elections pose several puzzles, one of which is the gap between Joe Bidens handsome victory in the presidential race and the Democrats disappointing performance in the House of Representatives. Biden enjoyed an edge of 7.1 million votes over President Trump, while the Democrats suffered a loss of 13 seats in the House, reducing their margin from 36 to just 10.

Turnout in the 2018 mid-term election reached its highest level in more than a century. Democrats were fervently opposed to the Trump administration and turned out in droves. Compared to its performance in 2016, the partys total House vote fell by only 2%. Without Donald Trump at the head of the ticket, Republican voters were much less enthusiastic, and the total House vote for Republican candidates fell by nearly 20% from 2016. Democratic candidates received almost 10 million more votes than Republican candidates, a margin of 8.6%, the highest ever for a party that was previously in the minority. It was, in short, a spectacular year for House Democrats.

To understand the difference this Democratic disadvantage can make, compare the 2020 presidential and House results in five critical swing states.

Table 1: Presidential versus House results

Arizona

Read Also: Republican Senate Seats

Election Analysis And Context

All 435 seatsincluding seven vacancieswere up for election, with Democrats needing to add 23 seats to win majority control of the chamber.

The Democratic Party was well-positioned to gain seats, according to a 100-year historical analysis of House elections conducted by Ballotpedia and political scientist Jacob Smith. From 1918 to 2016, the presidents party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections. The Democrats matched this pattern in the 2018 midterms, gaining 40 seats for a total of 235 seats17 more than was needed for a majority.

One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.

In 372 of the 435 seats, an incumbent was seeking re-election on November 6. There were 52 seats where the incumbent was either retiring or otherwise not seeking re-election18 Democrats and 34 Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and seven vacant seats. In four other seats, the incumbenttwo from each partywas defeated in a primary before election day.

There were 46 seats that changed party hands, both open seats and those occupied by an incumbent, and 30 of the 372 incumbent U.S. representatives lost their seats in the general electionall Republicans.

Gubernatorial And Legislative Party Control Of State Government

Midterm elections: Do Republicans have a chance of keeping the House?

Top 10 Closest Primaries: January to June 2020

Wave elections

Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government refers to the role of political parties in the power dynamic between state legislatures and executives. Below, we examine the partisan affiliation of the 1,972 state senators, 5,411 state representatives, and 50 state governors across the United States.

Partisan breakdown of state governments

Below, Ballotpedia presents our information on the partisan breakdown of state senators, state representatives, and governors as well as the state legislature and state executive branch as a whole. We also examine state government trifectas, which occur when the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor are each controlled by one political party. Trifectas are important to highlight since unified partisan affiliation between the branches of state government can impact a states legislative process.

The following maps display current state government trifectas as well as historical trifectas leading up to the 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Use the buttons below to select a map.

Read Also: When Did Republicans And Democrats Switch Platforms

Eric Holder: There Is Still A Fight For Democrats Against Gop Gerrymandering

In McConnells Kentucky, for instance, Republicans are divided over how far to go during the upcoming redistricting process, which they control in the deep-red state. The more extreme wing wants to crack the Democratic stronghold of Louisville, currently represented by Rep. John Yarmuth. More cautious Republicans like McConnell are willing to settle for smaller changes that reduce Democratic margins while stuffing more Republican voters into hotly contested swing districts.

Make no mistake: McConnells caution isnt rooted in any newfound respect for the integrity of our electoral process. Instead, Republicans are mainly worried about avoiding the costly and embarrassing court decisions that invalidated their most extreme overreaches and potentially turn the line-drawing over to the courts. So McConnells approach doesnt reject partisan gerrymandering it just avoids the type of high-profile city-cracking that could land the Kentucky GOP in federal court.

States With Republican Governors Had Highest Covid Incidence And Death Rates Study Finds

States with Democratic governors had the highest incidence and death rates from Covid-19 in the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, but states with Republican governors surpassed those rates as the crisis dragged on, a study released Tuesday found.

From March to early June, Republican-led states had lower Covid-19 incidence rates compared with Democratic-led states. On June 3, the association reversed, and Republican-led states had higher incidence,the study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Medical University of South Carolina showed.

For death rates, Republican-led states had lower rates early in the pandemic, but higher rates from July 4 through mid-December, the study found.

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The House’s Balance Of Power Is Tipped Toward Democrats

The Democrats;have a narrow six-member margin in the current House of Representatives, meaning if just a handful of seats flip, Republicans can regain control of the House.

Democrats’;advantage;will grow to seven when Troy Carter is sworn in;to fill a seat in Louisiana’s delegation left vacant;by Cedric Richmond, who left the House to join the Biden administration as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement.;

United States House Of Representatives Elections 2018

17Footnotes

The Democratic Party won control of the U.S. House from the Republican Party on . Democrats gained a net total of 40 seats, 17 more than the 23 seats they needed to win control of the House.

Heading into the elections, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies. All 435 seats were up for election. Special elections were held earlier in 2018 and in 2017 to fill vacancies that occurred in the 115th Congress. Democrats flipped one seat when Conor Lamb won a to replace Tim Murphy in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District.

Ballotpedia covered every state and federal primary in 2018 to highlight the intraparty conflicts that shaped the parties and the general elections. Click here for our coverage of Republican Party primaries in 2018, and here for our coverage of Democratic Party primaries.

Also Check: Republican Vs Democrat Indictments

Isan Composition Of State Legislatures

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming See also

The partisan composition of state legislatures refers to which political party holds the majority of seats in the State Senate and State House. Altogether, there are 1,972 state senators and 5,411 state representatives.The breakdown of chamber control after the November 2020 election is as follows:

37 chambers

One chamber with power sharing between the parties

The breakdown of chamber control prior to the November 2020 election was as follows:

39 chambers

See also: Partisan composition of state houses and Partisan composition of state senates

state government trifecta

As of August 15, 2021, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 15 Democratic trifectas, and 12 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control.

Districts That Flipped In 2018

The map below highlights congressional districts that changed party control in the general elections on November 6, 2018.

The following table lists congressional districts that changed party control in the general elections on November 6, 2018. It also includes 2020 general election race ratings from three outlets.

Flipped congressional districts, 2018 Kim Schrier

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Republicans Introduce 253 Bills To Restrict Voting Rights In States Across The Us

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Republican lawmakers in 43 states have introduced a total of 253 bills aimed at restricting access to the ballot box for tens of millions of people. Republican-controlled states, including Southern states that employed lynch law terror to block African Americans from voting during the decades-long period of Jim Crow segregation, are flooding their legislatures with measures to effectively disenfranchise working class, poor and minority voters.

The laws largely focus on tightening voter ID requirements, purging voter rolls and restricting absentee and mail-in ballots.

In the United States, state governments have the authority to oversee elections and determine election procedures and rules, including for national elections. Within each state, individual counties have a great deal of latitude in the conduct of elections.

Republicans control both the lower and upper legislative houses in 36 of the 50 states, and both the legislatures and governorships in 23 states, making it very possible for far-reaching barriers to the ballot box to be imposed across much of the country.

Despite opening the door for a return to restrictive and discriminatory voting practices, the 2013 ruling met with little resistance on the part of the Democratic Party. Neither the Obama White House nor the congressional Democrats mounted any serious effort to reverse the evisceration of the Voting Rights Act by enacting new legislation in the years since the reactionary Shelby ruling.

Texas

Gop Women Made Big Gains

Democrats win House, Republicans keep Senate in US

While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.

GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats

Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11

District D+22.1

Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.

Also Check: Who Is Right Republicans Or Democrats

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How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In The Senate

Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects

WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.

Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was by NBC News as the apparent winner.

Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.

Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.

Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the partyâs first gain.

Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.

In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it âtoo early to call.â

In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly but the race is rated âtoo close to call.â

Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans

A FiveThirtyEight Chat

Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.

Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.

What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?

alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.

geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.

nrakich : What they said!

United States Senate Elections 2020

November 3, 2020 U.S. Senate Elections by State U.S. House Elections

Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 3, 2020. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for regular election.

Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 3, 2020, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2021.

Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 116th Congress, including 2020 special U.S. Senate elections in Arizona for the seat that John McCain won in 2016 and in Georgia for the seat that Johnny Isakson won in 2016.

Twelve seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2020. Heading into the election, Republicans had a majority with 53 seats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the chamber. The vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.

On this page, you will find:

Information on historical wave elections

Republicans On Course To Hold Senate Majority

WASHINGTON D.C, November 4, 2020 The Republican party looks set to hold its majority in the U.S. Senate, as election night draws to a close across the nation.

The latest figures show the Republicans with 47 confirmed seats and the Democrats with 45. At the time of writing only six seats remain unconfirmed: Alaska, Georgia, Georgia Special, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. 

Republicans are on target to hold both North Carolina and Maine, and also have a healthy lead in Michigan which currently has 68% of the vote counted.

Georgia also looks secure for the Republicans, with Sen. Perdue on target to hold his seat. 

Of the six unconfirmed seats, only Georgia Special is without a clear winner and deemed a runoff.

Alaska currently has only 39% of the vote counted, with Rep. Dan Sullivan leading his Democrat challenger by 61.7% to 33.7%. Polls predict that Republicans will hold the seat.

The Democrats took a victory in Colorado, winning the seat from the Republicans, and also took the win in the Arizona Special election, after the death of Republican John McCain left the seat open.

However, the Democrats also lost their Alabama seat, as pro-life Republican Tommy Tuberville won the seat from Sen. Doug Jones.

Republicans have held a majority in the Senate since 2014, and prior to November 3 election night, held 53 seats.

Twitter just deplatformed President Trump premanently! And, other conservatives, including General Flynn and Sidney Powell, were also deplatformed.

Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican

Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.

1.285%

Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.

Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.

President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.

It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.

Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.

Iowa: Joni Ernst Vs Bruce Braley

Republican Joni Ernst defeated Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race to fill the open seat vacated by the retirement of Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic stalwart in the state. Ernst, 44, will be the first female senator to ever represent Iowa, a state that catapulted Barack Obamas career just six years ago.

Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, shocked the political establishment when she won a crowded GOP primary in June. Ernst, a little known state senator, burst onto the national scene after releasing an attention grabbing ad called Squeal, which featured her talking about castrating hogs.

Braley stumbled throughout his campaign from making remarks that insulted some Iowa farmers to threatening a lawsuit against his neighbor over roaming chickens. Republican and Democratic surrogates with potential 2016 ambitions flooded Iowa in the final weeks of the campaign to help their candidates.

Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects

Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.

Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.

Read more here. 

The Winding Road To Democratic Control

Following an anxious four days of waiting after the 2020 general election, nearly all major news networks declared that Joe Biden had exceeded 270 electoral votes and won the presidency. Democrats also retained control of the U.S. House, although their majority has been trimmed back .

But the U.S. Senate still hung in the balance, a tantalizing prize for Democrats dreaming of a trifecta, and a bulwark against a Democratic agenda for Republicans who seek to hold onto some power under the new Biden administration that will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.

Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.

The Senates balance of power teetered on the fulcrum of Georgias two seats, both of which were decided by the January 5th runoff election. Georgia law requires candidates to be voted in with at least 50% of the votes cast; if a candidate does not reach that threshold the two candidates who received the highest number of votes face one another in a runoff election.

Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:

Incumbent David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff .According to Georgias Secretary of State, Perdue received 88,000 more votes than Ossoff, but came up just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. This is in part due to the 115,000 votes that went to Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel who will not appear on the January ballot.

Maine Senate Race A Toss

 With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.

CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.

The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. 

The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.

Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat

Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.

Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.

Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.

Why Is There An Election In Georgia

The election is being rerun because of Georgia’s rule that a candidate must take 50% of the vote in order to win.

None of the candidates in November’s general election met that threshold.

With 98% of votes counted, US TV networks and the Associated Press news agency called the first of the two races for Mr Warnock.

Control of the Senate in the first two years of Mr Biden’s term will be determined by the outcome of the second run-off.

Mr Warnock is set to become the first black senator for the state of Georgia – a slavery state in the US Civil War – and only the 11th black senator in US history.

He serves as the reverend of the Atlanta church where assassinated civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr grew up and preached.

Claiming victory, he paid tribute to his mother, Verlene, who as a teenager worked as a farm labourer.

“The other day – because this is America – the 82-year-old hands that used to pick somebody else’s cotton went to the polls and picked her youngest son to be a United States senator,” he said.

If both Democrats win, the Senate will be evenly split 50-50, allowing incoming Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. The Democrats narrowly control the House of Representatives.

Mr Ossoff has also claimed victory in his race against Republican Senator David Perdue, but that race is even tighter. At 33, he would be the Senate’s youngest member for 40 years.

Mr Biden won at least seven million more votes than the president.

Us Election 2020: Democrats’ Hopes Of Gaining Control Of Senate Fade

Democrats are rapidly losing hope of gaining control of the US Senate after underperforming in key states.

Controlling the Senate would have allowed them to either obstruct or push through the next president’s agenda.

The party had high hopes of gaining the four necessary seats in Congress’s upper chamber, but many Republican incumbents held their seats.

The Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the lower chamber, the House, but with some key losses.

With many votes still to be counted, the final outcome for both houses may not be known for some time.

Why don’t we have a winner yet?

Among the disappointments for the Democrats was the fight for the seat in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins staved off a fierce challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.

However, the night did see a number of firsts – including the first black openly LGBTQ people ever elected to Congress and the first openly transgender state senator.

The balance of power in the Senate may also change next January. At least one run-off election is due to be held that month in Georgia, since neither candidate has been able to secure more than 50% of votes.

This year’s congressional election is running alongside the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 were Republican-held and 12 were Democrat.

Senators serve six-year terms, and every two years a third of the seats are up for re-election.

Cal Cunningham Concedes North Carolina Senate Race

Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday, saying in a statement that he had called Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis to congratulate him on his victory.

“I just called Senator Tillis to congratulate him on winning re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate and wished him and his family the best in their continued service in the months and years ahead,” Cunningham said. “The voters have spoken and I respect their decision.”

CBS News projects that Tillis has won the race, after Cunningham’s concession. Tillis led Cunningham by nearly 100,000 votes as of Tuesday. The presidential race in North Carolina is still too close to call, although President Trump is currently in the lead. The full results of the election in North Carolina are unlikely to be known until later this week, as the deadline in the state to receive absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day is November 12.

What Are The Magic Numbers

It depends on who wins the presidency. If its former Vice President Joe Biden, Democrats must flip three seats because new VP Kamala Harris would get to cast any tie-breaking vote. If its President Donald Trump, Democrats would need to flip four seats to seize control of the Senate. They already control the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.

With numerous races still uncalled in the Senate election, so far the Democrats have flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, but Republicans flipped an Alabama seat.

Republicans also beat back Democratic challenges to retain seats in South Carolina, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Maine and Texas. Democrats had launched aggressive challenges in attempts to pick up Senate seats in traditionally Republican areas, but that didnt happen for them.

Either side needs 51 seats to have a majority of seats in the Senate. According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans had reached 48 seats and Democrats were at 47, as of 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on November 4.

However, Republicans were leading in several Senate races that had yet to be called.

In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis declared victory, but, according to WSOC-TV, not all votes had yet been counted and the race was too close to call on November 4.

In one of the two Georgia Senate races, Republican David Perdue was also leading with most returns in.

Where It Stands: Election Hinges On Key States Final Results May Take A While

McConnell is expected to remain leader of the GOP conference if Republicans hold the chamber. During Trump’s first term, McConnell led the effort to remake the federal judiciary with 220 judges confirmed, including three Supreme Court justices.

Democrats hoped that progressives’ concerns about Barrett replacing liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court would help fuel their bid to oust Republicans, who confirmed her just days before Election Day.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the only Republican to vote against Barrett, was one of the most vulnerable members. But Collins was ahead early Wednesday in her bid against Democratic candidate Sarah Gideon, according to The Associated Press.

GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, also a top-tier target for Democrats, was leading in the AP vote count, but the race as of early Wednesday was still too close to call, as was North Carolina’s choice for president.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats hoped to win one or both Senate seats in Georgia. The contest between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has not yet been called by the AP. And the special election for the other seat will go to a runoff because no candidate received 50% of the vote Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor from Atlanta, on Jan. 5.

McConnell said the outcome of the presidential race is still unsettled and it may be another day or more before key Senate races are decided.

Could Flip Under The Right Conditions: Michigan Iowa Montana Kansas And Georgia Special Election

Michigan: Michigan is one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race, and the reelection bid of Sen. Gary Peters will get caught up in that. Democrats say the fact that the coronavirus has hit Michigan hard makes it more likely Biden can win this state, which was crucial to Trumps 2016 victory. In the Senate race, Republicans have made a big deal out of John James, an Iraq War veteran and conservative media darling. James has outraised Peters for three straight quarters and is close to having as much money as Peters in the bank. Democrats argue Republicans are too bullish on a candidate who also lost a Senate race against a Democrat in 2018. Polls have shown this race close between the two.

Montana: Can a popular Democratic governor who won in Trump country unseat a sitting Republican senator? Term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock , a former 2020 presidential candidate, is running against Sen. Steve Daines . Bullock is the Democrat with the best shot, given hes won three times statewide, including when Trump swept the state in 2016. And in 2018, Sen. Jon Tester won a tough reelection fight. But can Bullock unseat a sitting Republican senator in a state that some strategists estimate could vote for Trump by as many as 20 points?

Democrats Probably Need To Win All Four Toss

There remain some big wild cards in the race for the Senate majority: Neither side has a handle yet on how the coronavirus pandemic, or the race between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden, will shape individual Senate races.

Democrats, once seen as a long shot to take the majority from Republicans in November, have had a lot go their way in recent months. Theyve persuaded some choice candidates to jump in and make races more competitive, and their fundraising has been strong.

But to pick up at least four Senate seats, Democrats probably have to win all four toss-up races. That, plus a win by Biden, would give them an effective Senate majority, since his vice president could cast tie-breaking votes.

With a lot more unknowns than normal at this point in the election cycle, here are the 10 races most likely to flip. Because so many races are so close, rather than rank them, I grouped them into three tiers: Likely to flip; Toss-ups; Could flip under the right conditions.

Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder

Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.

President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.

The Brennan Center has that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.

Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.

Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.

Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.

Potentially Competitive Us Senate Races In 2022

Held by Republicans

Maggie Hassan Biden +7.4

The Democrats could also have opportunities in Ohio, where Sen. Rob Portman is retiring, and in Florida, home of Sen. Marco Rubio , but both of these once-preeminent swing states have drifted toward the GOP in recent elections and could be tough to pick off in 2022.

The GOPs top two pickup opportunities are also readily apparent: Arizona and Georgia. Both were among the most narrowly decided states that Biden won, and both have a history of favoring Republicans. Both are home to Democratic incumbents who won their seats in 2020 special elections: Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael G. Warnock . The GOPs path back to a majority begins with reclaiming these two states.

Beyond that, though, obvious GOP opportunities are harder to come by. New Hampshire could be competitive if popular Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Sen. Maggie Hassan , but it has trended in the Democrats favor in recent years, going for Biden by seven points last year. Ditto Nevada, where first-term Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection, but the GOP bench is somewhat limited as the state has also drifted blue in recent years.

Democrats control of the House is arguably more imperiled than their hold on the Senate. Thats a function of the Senate seats that are up for reelection as well as the lay of the land in the House.

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source https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-the-republicans-have-in-the-senate/

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The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 Senate challengers had their first big opportunity to impress last week, with first quarter fundraising reports due to the Federal Election Commission. Those who are proud of their hauls often announce them ahead of time, sometimes eager to keep would-be primary challengers at bay. And for incumbents, early fundraising numbers are an indication of how seriously they’re taking their races (or whether they’re even planning on running). Four of the 10 seats on CNN’s ranking are currently held by retiring Republican senators, including the newest addition to the list. Missouri wouldn’t have made it if Sen. Roy Blunt were running for a third term — and if a certain former disgraced governor weren’t running to replace him. (The Show Me State replaces the increasingly blue Colorado, where Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet hasn’t attracted any significant GOP challengers yet). Retirement remains a big question in Wisconsin, where GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has not said what his plans are. Open seats often make defending the seat more perilous (see Missouri) but Democrats are feeling increasingly confident that running against the conspiracy-peddling Johnson is an attractive option, and Wisconsin retains its spot as No. 3 on this list. The Senate race in Alaska — where GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski hasn’t officially announced her reelection plans — is getting a lot of attention as the first major proxy battle between former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But the contest still doesn’t make the top 10. Murkowski has proven she can overcome a challenge from the right, and the state’s new top-four ranked choice voting system may give her an advantage. The start of the second fundraising quarter likely means there’ll be a wave of new candidate announcements soon. But one factor to watch in several of these states is whether the top talent instead decides to go for the gubernatorial contests, which are often less nationalized (read: partisan) affairs, making it easier to be elected as a Democrat in a red state or a Republican in a blue state. Here is CNN’s second ranking of the 10 seats most likely to flip in 2022: 1. Pennsylvania Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring) As an open seat that Biden carried last fall, Pennsylvania remains the seat most likely to flip in 2022 with Republican Sen. Pat Toomey not running for reelection. Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman raised about $4 million in the first quarter — an impressive haul for the first three months of the off-year. But the former Braddock mayor is still going to have competition for the Democratic nomination. He got a reminder of that late last month when the current mayor of the western Pennsylvania town endorsed one of his opponents, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta from Philadelphia, who raised just $374,000 in the first quarter. The field is still growing, with Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh launching her campaign earlier this month. Yet another Philadelphia politician, state Sen. Sharif Street, announced an exploratory committee, while members of the congressional delegation, like Reps. Conor Lamb, Chrissy Houlahan and Madeleine Dean, are eyeing the race, although they also have redistricting on their minds and would probably have to forgo reelection before knowing what their House districts look like in 2022. So far, it’s mainly businessman Jeff Bartos running on the Republican side, who raised about $792,000 and loaned his campaign $400,000 in the first quarter, although current and former members of the congressional delegation could still join that contest too, as could several former Trump officials. While Democrats may be contending with a messy primary, they see the wide interest in the seat as a sign of the opportunity to flip it. 2. Georgia Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock Months after twin Senate runoffs here flipped control of the Senate to Democrats, Georgia continues to be the center of the political universe, this time with a controversial election law that has led major corporations to boycott the state and the President to condemn it as “Jim Crow in the 21st century.” While voting rights advocates say the law makes it harder to vote for Black Georgians — a key part of Democrats’ winning constituency in this longtime red state — it may also embolden minority voters to turn out, which has traditionally been a problem for Democrats in midterms. It could also inspire liberal donors to keep Georgia in their checkbooks, despite the state not being a presidential battleground this cycle. That would all be good news for Sen. Raphael Warnock, who won this seat by just 2 points in the January special runoff election and is running for a full six-year term. He’s already well-positioned financially, heading into the second quarter with $5.6 million in the bank. But Republicans argue that Warnock and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams — who may also be on the ballot next year if she runs for governor again — will be punished for the economic hit to the state from corporations siding with their opposition to the law and boycotting Georgia. The GOP field is still taking shape, but this is one place Republicans are on offense where they feel good about a deep bench of potential candidates. Warnock’s opponents from last fall, former Sen. Kelly Loeffler and former Rep. Doug Collins, are eyeing the race, and GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson — a member of House GOP leadership — may also be a contender. The big question is how Trump will get involved in this race given his penchant for meddling in Georgia politics. As CNN reported last month, he’s pitched former NFL running back Herschel Walker, who lives in Texas, to run here. 3. Wisconsin Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson GOP Sen. Ron Johnson remains very vulnerable as the only incumbent running for reelection in a state carried by the opposite party’s presidential nominee in 2020. And he doesn’t seem to be doing himself any favors, giving voice to an elongating string of conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection. But he still hasn’t said whether he’s running for reelection. He raised about $545,000 in the first three months of the year after ending 2020 with just half a million dollars in the bank. His quarterly haul is much less than he had raised during the same period the last time he was facing reelection (about $1.3 million in the first quarter of 2015.) A prominent Republican is pushing him to stick around: “Run, Ron, Run!” Trump said in a statement earlier this month. If Johnson doesn’t run, Republicans will be in the same boat as Democrats — trying to navigate a late primary, which could suck up candidate resources ahead of what’s sure to be an expensive general election. On the Democratic side, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry raised about $1 million (including a $50,000 personal loan) after getting into the race mid-quarter. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, a former lieutenant governor nominee, raised about $264,000. And a new fundraising quarter brought a new candidate: state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski is running on a message about fighting climate change, raising the minimum wage and ending the filibuster. “Instead of conspiracy theories, we can focus on actually helping families,” she says in her announcement video, calling out Johnson and his defense of Trump. While Republicans wait to see what their incumbent does, they’re also eager to see what Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes decides, believing he’d be a formidable opponent regardless of who their candidate is. 4. North Carolina Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring) Democrats have fallen short in North Carolina Senate races lately, and Republicans feel better about holding a seat in this Trump state than they do in either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. But with Sen. Richard Burr not running again, there’s more of a chance Democrats could pick it off. State Sen. Jeff Jackson is already running, as is former state Sen. Erica Smith, whom Republicans tried to boost in last year’s primary. But two other Black women could soon change the dynamics. Cheri Beasley, the former state Supreme Court chief justice who narrowly lost reelection in 2020, has been expected to announce this month and would be a formidable candidate. Former NASA astronaut Joan Higginbotham — the third Black woman to go into space — could also enter the race soon. North Carolina Republicans interested in the race rushed to criticize Burr’s vote to convict Trump earlier this year, all eager to proclaim their Trumpiness in a state he won, but it remains to be seen if an actual Trump will enter the race. Lara Trump, the ex-President’s daughter-in-law, may have taken herself out of the running by signing a deal with Fox News. Former Rep. Mark Walker (who raised only $208,000 in the first quarter) got some company when former Gov. Pat McCrory entered the race last week with an announcement video saying, “It’s time we join together and take back the Senate from Kamala Harris.” The former governor, perhaps best known for backing the state’s so-called bathroom bill, lost reelection in 2016 when Trump carried the state. The field is still likely to grow here, especially if Trump passes on the race. 5. Arizona Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly Mark Kelly, who just won this seat last fall, raised $4.4 million in the first quarter for his quest to win a full six-year term. Kelly only won by about 2 points and Biden only narrowly carried the Grand Canyon State last year, so it’s by no means a slam dunk for Democrats to hold this seat. But it’s not yet clear who Republicans have to run against the former astronaut. Gov. Doug Ducey, who’s been censured by the state party, has said he’s not interested in running for Senate, leaving a fractured GOP without an obvious candidate who could win the general election against a first-time politician who seems to be following a moderate path in Congress. The governor’s race could also attract Republicans who would rather run in an open race than face such a strong Senate fundraiser. Rep. Andy Biggs, the chairman of the hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus, could challenge Kelly, but while he’d likely appeal to the base, he might struggle to appeal to some more moderate suburban voters. With a late primary, there’s still plenty of time for Republicans who have ruled it out to change their minds or new folks to jump in, but that late primary also means that Kelly will have a significant head start on the eventual GOP nominee. 6. Nevada Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is facing her first reelection. On the Republican side, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, whom sources told CNN last month is considering it, is the name everyone’s waiting on. He’s a former statewide elected official and could gain traction in a state Biden only narrowly carried last fall. Democrats argue, however, that Laxalt would be motivating to voters on the left since he’s been a Trump defender, helping bring various lawsuits over the 2020 election. Republicans admit their chances here will largely depend on what the environment looks like next year. Cortez Masto, meanwhile, fresh off a term as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, raised $2.3 million in the first quarter and has nearly $4.7 million in the bank. 7. New Hampshire Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan Republicans feel increasingly bullish about the Granite State because of the chance that Gov. Chris Sununu will enter the race. But he hasn’t yet, which means this race is staying where it is on the list for now. New Hampshire voted for Biden last fall — by a significantly larger margin than it did for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Of the most competitive seats Democrats are defending, it’s the one that Biden carried the most comfortably. That said, Sununu has the name recognition and profile to make this a real race for first-term Sen. Maggie Hassan, who raised nearly $3 million in the first quarter. The GOP governor has likely frozen the field until he makes anything official, which he has said he wouldn’t do until after the end of the legislative session in June. There’s plenty of time for the field to take shape here too — New Hampshire is another state with a late primary — but if and when Sununu gets in, expect this race to get much more competitive. 8. Ohio Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) While the Democratic field may be shrinking here, the Republican field is growing bigger — and messier — as candidates trip over each other to claim the Trump mantle in a state he won comfortably twice. The most public sparring has been between former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and former state party chair Jane Timken, but there are others who are tying themselves to the former President, too. Businessman Bernie Moreno recently announced his campaign, touting the involvement of Kellyanne Conway and some other former Trump officials. Businessman Mike Gibbons, who lost the 2018 primary to Mandel, launched another bid. And members of the delegation are still eyeing the race, like Rep. Mike Turner, who recently tweeted a polished bio video. Another big name who could shake up the race is “Hillbilly Elegy” author JD Vance. If he runs, he’ll benefit from a super PAC that Peter Thiel has already kicked $10 million into. On the Democratic side, former State Health Director Amy Acton, a Democrat who served in a GOP administration, has passed on the race, likely leaving Rep. Tim Ryan — who hasn’t yet officially launched — the biggest name. Republicans are relieved Acton is out and feel better about running against someone with a voting record. Ryan raised $1.2 million in the first quarter — an impressive sum for a House incumbent but less than the impressive sums some Senate Democratic challengers have recently posted. 9. Florida Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio Trump’s endorsement of the incumbent likely removes one major headache that Sen. Marco Rubio could have faced: a Trumpier primary challenger, who, at the very least, could have cost Rubio some extra money defending himself, and in the worst case scenario for Republicans, put the seat at greater risk. But with the former President (and Florida resident) behind Rubio, Republicans feel good about this seat even though Trump only carried the state by 3 points, less than he won Ohio. Rubio has a track record of success here, whereas Democrats don’t yet know their candidate. As a moderate with a compelling personal story, Blue Dog Coalition cho-chair Stephanie Murphy could make this race competitive. She’s considering but hasn’t entered the race yet, and while others could still get in too, the governor’s race may also attract some top talent. 10. Missouri Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring) Missouri wouldn’t be on this list if it weren’t for one man: former Gov. Eric Greitens, who unabashedly launched a pro-Trump Senate campaign after Sen. Roy Blunt announced he wasn’t running for reelection. Greitens resigned from office following a probe into allegations of sexual and campaign misconduct, leading to Republican fears that he could endanger the Senate seat (and the rest of the map next year). That kind of situation isn’t without precedent: in 2012, Todd Akin cost Republicans the Show Me State and became a name GOP nominees around the country had to answer for. Sen. Josh Hawley — an avowed Greitens enemy — is said to be working behind the scenes against him. But the announcement of Kimberly Guilfoyle as the national chair of Greitens’ campaign boosts his pro-Trump bona fides in a primary. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt is also running, and several members of the delegation are eyeing the race, but the more people who get in, the more the anti-Greitens vote will be split. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Scott Sifton was already running, while Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, a progressive who says “It’s time to Marshall Plan the Midwest,” announced after Blunt said he was retiring. Several bigger names, like former Sen. Claire McCaskill and 2016 nominee Jason Kander, who only lost to Blunt by 3 points, have passed. For now, the possibility that Greitens’ candidacy entices some bigger-name Democratic candidates (even those who have already ruled it out) into the race or eventually becomes the GOP nominee is enough to land Missouri a spot on this list. Source link Orbem News #Flip #Politics #seats #Senate #The10Senateseatsmostlikelytoflipin2022-CNNPolitics

[dipulb3]

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022

New Post has been published on https://appradab.com/the-10-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip-in-2022/

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022

Senate challengers had their first big opportunity to impress last week, with first quarter fundraising reports due to the Federal Election Commission. Those who are proud of their hauls often announce them ahead of time, sometimes eager to keep would-be primary challengers at bay. And for incumbents, early fundraising numbers are an indication of how seriously they’re taking their races (or whether they’re even planning on running).

Four of the 10 seats on Appradab’s ranking are currently held by retiring Republican senators, including the newest addition to the list. Missouri wouldn’t have made it if Sen. Roy Blunt were running for a third term — and if a certain former disgraced governor weren’t running to replace him. (The Show Me State replaces the increasingly blue Colorado, where Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet hasn’t attracted any significant GOP challengers yet).

Retirement remains a big question in Wisconsin, where GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has not said what his plans are. Open seats often make defending the seat more perilous (see Missouri) but Democrats are feeling increasingly confident that running against the conspiracy-peddling Johnson is an attractive option, and Wisconsin retains its spot as No. 3 on this list.

The Senate race in Alaska — where GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski hasn’t officially announced her reelection plans — is getting a lot of attention as the first major proxy battle between former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But the contest still doesn’t make the top 10. Murkowski has proven she can overcome a challenge from the right, and the state’s new top-four ranked choice voting system may give her an advantage.

The start of the second fundraising quarter likely means there’ll be a wave of new candidate announcements soon. But one factor to watch in several of these states is whether the top talent instead decides to go for the gubernatorial contests, which are often less nationalized (read: partisan) affairs, making it easier to be elected as a Democrat in a red state or a Republican in a blue state.

Here is Appradab’s second ranking of the 10 seats most likely to flip in 2022:

1. Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)

As an open seat that Biden carried last fall, Pennsylvania remains the seat most likely to flip in 2022 with Republican Sen. Pat Toomey not running for reelection. Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman raised about $4 million in the first quarter — an impressive haul for the first three months of the off-year. But the former Braddock mayor is still going to have competition for the Democratic nomination. He got a reminder of that late last month when the current mayor of the western Pennsylvania town endorsed one of his opponents, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta from Philadelphia, who raised just $374,000 in the first quarter. The field is still growing, with Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh launching her campaign earlier this month. Yet another Philadelphia politician, state Sen. Sharif Street, announced an exploratory committee, while members of the congressional delegation, like Reps. Conor Lamb, Chrissy Houlahan and Madeleine Dean, are eyeing the race, although they also have redistricting on their minds and would probably have to forgo reelection before knowing what their House districts look like in 2022. So far, it’s mainly businessman Jeff Bartos running on the Republican side, who raised about $792,000 and loaned his campaign $400,000 in the first quarter, although current and former members of the congressional delegation could still join that contest too, as could several former Trump officials. While Democrats may be contending with a messy primary, they see the wide interest in the seat as a sign of the opportunity to flip it.

2. Georgia

Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock

Months after twin Senate runoffs here flipped control of the Senate to Democrats, Georgia continues to be the center of the political universe, this time with a controversial election law that has led major corporations to boycott the state and the President to condemn it as “Jim Crow in the 21st century.” While voting rights advocates say the law makes it harder to vote for Black Georgians — a key part of Democrats’ winning constituency in this longtime red state — it may also embolden minority voters to turn out, which has traditionally been a problem for Democrats in midterms. It could also inspire liberal donors to keep Georgia in their checkbooks, despite the state not being a presidential battleground this cycle. That would all be good news for Sen. Raphael Warnock, who won this seat by just 2 points in the January special runoff election and is running for a full six-year term. He’s already well-positioned financially, heading into the second quarter with $5.6 million in the bank. But Republicans argue that Warnock and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams — who may also be on the ballot next year if she runs for governor again — will be punished for the economic hit to the state from corporations siding with their opposition to the law and boycotting Georgia. The GOP field is still taking shape, but this is one place Republicans are on offense where they feel good about a deep bench of potential candidates. Warnock’s opponents from last fall, former Sen. Kelly Loeffler and former Rep. Doug Collins, are eyeing the race, and GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson — a member of House GOP leadership — may also be a contender. The big question is how Trump will get involved in this race given his penchant for meddling in Georgia politics. As Appradab reported last month, he’s pitched former NFL running back Herschel Walker, who lives in Texas, to run here.

3. Wisconsin

Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson

GOP Sen. Ron Johnson remains very vulnerable as the only incumbent running for reelection in a state carried by the opposite party’s presidential nominee in 2020. And he doesn’t seem to be doing himself any favors, giving voice to an elongating string of conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection. But he still hasn’t said whether he’s running for reelection. He raised about $545,000 in the first three months of the year after ending 2020 with just half a million dollars in the bank. His quarterly haul is much less than he had raised during the same period the last time he was facing reelection (about $1.3 million in the first quarter of 2015.) A prominent Republican is pushing him to stick around: “Run, Ron, Run!” Trump said in a statement earlier this month. If Johnson doesn’t run, Republicans will be in the same boat as Democrats — trying to navigate a late primary, which could suck up candidate resources ahead of what’s sure to be an expensive general election. On the Democratic side, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry raised about $1 million (including a $50,000 personal loan) after getting into the race mid-quarter. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, a former lieutenant governor nominee, raised about $264,000. And a new fundraising quarter brought a new candidate: state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski is running on a message about fighting climate change, raising the minimum wage and ending the filibuster. “Instead of conspiracy theories, we can focus on actually helping families,” she says in her announcement video, calling out Johnson and his defense of Trump. While Republicans wait to see what their incumbent does, they’re also eager to see what Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes decides, believing he’d be a formidable opponent regardless of who their candidate is.

4. North Carolina

Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)

Democrats have fallen short in North Carolina Senate races lately, and Republicans feel better about holding a seat in this Trump state than they do in either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. But with Sen. Richard Burr not running again, there’s more of a chance Democrats could pick it off. State Sen. Jeff Jackson is already running, as is former state Sen. Erica Smith, whom Republicans tried to boost in last year’s primary. But two other Black women could soon change the dynamics. Cheri Beasley, the former state Supreme Court chief justice who narrowly lost reelection in 2020, has been expected to announce this month and would be a formidable candidate. Former NASA astronaut Joan Higginbotham — the third Black woman to go into space — could also enter the race soon. North Carolina Republicans interested in the race rushed to criticize Burr’s vote to convict Trump earlier this year, all eager to proclaim their Trumpiness in a state he won, but it remains to be seen if an actual Trump will enter the race. Lara Trump, the ex-President’s daughter-in-law, may have taken herself out of the running by signing a deal with Fox News. Former Rep. Mark Walker (who raised only $208,000 in the first quarter) got some company when former Gov. Pat McCrory entered the race last week with an announcement video saying, “It’s time we join together and take back the Senate from Kamala Harris.” The former governor, perhaps best known for backing the state’s so-called bathroom bill, lost reelection in 2016 when Trump carried the state. The field is still likely to grow here, especially if Trump passes on the race.

5. Arizona

Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly, who just won this seat last fall, raised $4.4 million in the first quarter for his quest to win a full six-year term. Kelly only won by about 2 points and Biden only narrowly carried the Grand Canyon State last year, so it’s by no means a slam dunk for Democrats to hold this seat. But it’s not yet clear who Republicans have to run against the former astronaut. Gov. Doug Ducey, who’s been censured by the state party, has said he’s not interested in running for Senate, leaving a fractured GOP without an obvious candidate who could win the general election against a first-time politician who seems to be following a moderate path in Congress. The governor’s race could also attract Republicans who would rather run in an open race than face such a strong Senate fundraiser. Rep. Andy Biggs, the chairman of the hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus, could challenge Kelly, but while he’d likely appeal to the base, he might struggle to appeal to some more moderate suburban voters. With a late primary, there’s still plenty of time for Republicans who have ruled it out to change their minds or new folks to jump in, but that late primary also means that Kelly will have a significant head start on the eventual GOP nominee.

6. Nevada

Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is facing her first reelection. On the Republican side, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, whom sources told Appradab last month is considering it, is the name everyone’s waiting on. He’s a former statewide elected official and could gain traction in a state Biden only narrowly carried last fall. Democrats argue, however, that Laxalt would be motivating to voters on the left since he’s been a Trump defender, helping bring various lawsuits over the 2020 election. Republicans admit their chances here will largely depend on what the environment looks like next year. Cortez Masto, meanwhile, fresh off a term as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, raised $2.3 million in the first quarter and has nearly $4.7 million in the bank.

7. New Hampshire

Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan

Republicans feel increasingly bullish about the Granite State because of the chance that Gov. Chris Sununu will enter the race. But he hasn’t yet, which means this race is staying where it is on the list for now. New Hampshire voted for Biden last fall — by a significantly larger margin than it did for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Of the most competitive seats Democrats are defending, it’s the one that Biden carried the most comfortably. That said, Sununu has the name recognition and profile to make this a real race for first-term Sen. Maggie Hassan, who raised nearly $3 million in the first quarter. The GOP governor has likely frozen the field until he makes anything official, which he has said he wouldn’t do until after the end of the legislative session in June. There’s plenty of time for the field to take shape here too — New Hampshire is another state with a late primary — but if and when Sununu gets in, expect this race to get much more competitive.

8. Ohio

Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)

While the Democratic field may be shrinking here, the Republican field is growing bigger — and messier — as candidates trip over each other to claim the Trump mantle in a state he won comfortably twice. The most public sparring has been between former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and former state party chair Jane Timken, but there are others who are tying themselves to the former President, too. Businessman Bernie Moreno recently announced his campaign, touting the involvement of Kellyanne Conway and some other former Trump officials. Businessman Mike Gibbons, who lost the 2018 primary to Mandel, launched another bid. And members of the delegation are still eyeing the race, like Rep. Mike Turner, who recently tweeted a polished bio video. Another big name who could shake up the race is “Hillbilly Elegy” author JD Vance. If he runs, he’ll benefit from a super PAC that Peter Thiel has already kicked $10 million into. On the Democratic side, former State Health Director Amy Acton, a Democrat who served in a GOP administration, has passed on the race, likely leaving Rep. Tim Ryan — who hasn’t yet officially launched — the biggest name. Republicans are relieved Acton is out and feel better about running against someone with a voting record. Ryan raised $1.2 million in the first quarter — an impressive sum for a House incumbent but less than the impressive sums some Senate Democratic challengers have recently posted.

9. Florida

Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio

Trump’s endorsement of the incumbent likely removes one major headache that Sen. Marco Rubio could have faced: a Trumpier primary challenger, who, at the very least, could have cost Rubio some extra money defending himself, and in the worst case scenario for Republicans, put the seat at greater risk. But with the former President (and Florida resident) behind Rubio, Republicans feel good about this seat even though Trump only carried the state by 3 points, less than he won Ohio. Rubio has a track record of success here, whereas Democrats don’t yet know their candidate. As a moderate with a compelling personal story, Blue Dog Coalition cho-chair Stephanie Murphy could make this race competitive. She’s considering but hasn’t entered the race yet, and while others could still get in too, the governor’s race may also attract some top talent.

10. Missouri

Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring)

Missouri wouldn’t be on this list if it weren’t for one man: former Gov. Eric Greitens, who unabashedly launched a pro-Trump Senate campaign after Sen. Roy Blunt announced he wasn’t running for reelection. Greitens resigned from office following a probe into allegations of sexual and campaign misconduct, leading to Republican fears that he could endanger the Senate seat (and the rest of the map next year). That kind of situation isn’t without precedent: in 2012, Todd Akin cost Republicans the Show Me State and became a name GOP nominees around the country had to answer for. Sen. Josh Hawley — an avowed Greitens enemy — is said to be working behind the scenes against him. But the announcement of Kimberly Guilfoyle as the national chair of Greitens’ campaign boosts his pro-Trump bona fides in a primary. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt is also running, and several members of the delegation are eyeing the race, but the more people who get in, the more the anti-Greitens vote will be split. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Scott Sifton was already running, while Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, a progressive who says “It’s time to Marshall Plan the Midwest,” announced after Blunt said he was retiring. Several bigger names, like former Sen. Claire McCaskill and 2016 nominee Jason Kander, who only lost to Blunt by 3 points, have passed. For now, the possibility that Greitens’ candidacy entices some bigger-name Democratic candidates (even those who have already ruled it out) into the race or eventually becomes the GOP nominee is enough to land Missouri a spot on this list.

[morningnews24h]

5 key takeaways from Georgia Senate runoff debate

Loeffler and Warnock participated in what may be the race's only debate.

December 7, 2020, 2:37 AM

• 13 min read

Incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler and her Democratic challenger, Rev. Raphael Warnock, faced off Sunday night in the first -- and potentially only -- debate between candidates competing in Georgia’s two Senate runoffs, which will determine which party controls Congress’s upper chamber.

In the hour-long live event, which was hosted by the Atlanta Press Club and broadcast from Georgia Public Broadcasting’s studio in Atlanta, Loeffler was pressed on her acknowledgment that the Republican Senate majority is at stake, despite not acknowledging President-elect Joe Biden’s win. The two candidates also sparred over religion, policing and the coronavirus pandemic.

No other debates have been scheduled yet, and Sen. David Perdue, Georgia’s senior senator who is also facing a runoff, declared he would not participate in a single debate against Jon Ossoff when the Atlanta Press Club extended an invitation to him to debate his Democratic challenger Sunday evening as well.

While he refused to debate, the Atlanta Press Club chose not to cancel the debate. Instead, Ossoff spent his allotted 30 minutes criticizing Perdue and contrasting himself to the sitting senator. He repeatedly called out Perdue’s absence as he took questions from panelists while standing next to an empty podium.

Ossoff blasted Perdue as “arrogant” for not participating in the debate, saying the senator feels entitled to the seat he currently holds.

“I truly regret that we haven't had the opportunity to debate the issues, because the people deserve it,” he said in his closing statements.

There are just 30 days left until Georgia voters will decide which candidates to send to Washington, and the debate fell on the eve of the voter registration deadline. But voting is already underway in the Peach State, with hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots already having been mailed out to voters, and over 40,000 of those ballots have already been returned and accepted by county election officials.

Here are the key takeaways from what may be the only debate before Jan. 5:

Loeffler won’t say whether she agrees with Trump that election was ‘rigged’

The president has repeatedly claimed that the election was “rigged” against him, and did so again during a rally Saturday night in the Peach State. Despite saying she supports Trump as he contests the election in states across the country, including Georgia, she would not repeat that the election was “rigged.”

Asked twice if she stood by and agreed with Trump’s “narrative,” she chose to point out the 250 investigations the secretary of state’s office has opened in the post-election period instead of answering the question.

“It's very clear that there were issues in this election. There were 250 investigations opened… we have to make sure that Georgians trust this process because of what’s at stake in the election,” Loeffler said the second time she was asked.

She also would not say whether she supports Trump reportedly pressuring Gov. Brian Kemp to call a special session of the General Assembly to override the election results.

During the part of the debate where the candidates get to ask their opponent a question, Warnock followed up on this topic, asking plainly, “Yes or no, Sen. Loeffler: did Donald Trump lose the election?”

Loeffler again reiterated her support for Trump to “use every legal recourse available.”

Later in the debate, she was asked about the president’s direct attacks on Kemp, who appointed Loeffler to the Senate. Trump has said he was ashamed to support Kemp’s campaign and suggested Loeffler’s former Republican opponent, Rep. Doug Collins, launch a primary bid against him in 2022.

Pushed into a box by one of the panelists, who asked whether her loyalty lies with the governor or the president, Loeffler chose option three.

“My loyalties are with Georgia,” she said.

Loeffler says Senate majority is at stake, even though she won’t explicitly acknowledge Biden’s win

While she did not explicitly acknowledge Biden won the election, Loeffler effectively did when she said, “What's at stake is the Senate majority.”

She may say she supports the president’s legal challenges, but it cannot be true that Trump actually won the election -- and will continue to be president -- and control of the Senate has yet to be determined. The Senate majority is only at stake in these elections because if both Warnock and Ossoff win, Democrats will hold 50 seats in the Senate, and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote.

“(The Democrats) want to radically change our country… We know the direction the country would take, and we’re going to continue to make sure that Georgians understand that our very way of life here in Georgia and across the country is under attack by the left,” Loeffler said.

But the debate’s moderator pressed the senator on her dire characterization of how these races could impact the country, and how she can’t have it both ways.

“Not to belabor the point, but all those things that you’re warning about would not be happening, presumably, with President Trump as president. So, it almost sounds as though you're conceding that that part of it has been settled, and now it's important for the Republicans to keep the majority in the Senate, to have a divided government,” the moderator, WAGA-TV/Fox5 anchor Russ Spencer, said.

But Loeffler still wouldn’t explicitly acknowledge his statement, and again reiterated the importance of a Republican Senate majority.

“I'm fighting to make sure that the Republican majority is retained in the Senate, because we are the shock absorber for commonsense policies that bring Americans together, that lift everyone up,” she said.

It’s a line Loeffler has not been alone in toeing, but there’s only a month left until election day, and Republicans have both, directly and indirectly, raised concerns that Trump’s rhetoric about the general election could actually work against Georgia’s senators, and suppress GOP turnout for the runoff.

Warnock evades giving court packing stance, even as he denounces other liberal priorities

Following Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, and during the confirmation process for now-Justice Amy Coney Barrett, some Democrats in the Senate voiced support for expanding the court to more than nine justices.

But Democrats on the campaign trail vying to unseat vulnerable Republicans were not so quick to voice their support for what’s been called “court packing.”

During Sunday’s debate, Warnock wasn’t either.

He avoided answering the question altogether, saying it wasn’t top of mind.

“People aren’t asking me about the courts and whether we should expand the courts. I know that's an interesting question for people inside the Beltway to discuss, but they are wondering when in the world are they gonna get some COVID-19 relief,” Warnock said when he was first asked whether he supported this.

The panelist, Atlanta Journal-Constitution political reporter Greg Bluestein, pushed back and defended the question's premise, saying it would have an impact on voters.

“I’m really not focused on it, and I think that too often, the politics in Washington has been about the politicians,” Warnock said.

But Warnock was definitive on other liberal priorities that dominated 2020.

Loeffler repeatedly said that Warnock, and Democrats in general, want to “defund the police,” but her opponent clearly stated he didn’t support that.

“I don't think we should defund the police, but we certainly do need criminal justice reform,” he said. “We need to make sure that police and officers and departments that have a pattern of misconduct are held accountable. We can do that and celebrate police at the same time.”

Warnock defends his record on the pulpit as candidates tangle over religion

Warnock defended his record against Loeffler's attacks, who repeatedly referred to him as a “radical liberal” while confronting him about his rhetoric on the pulpit.

“Radical liberal Raphael Warnock has called police officer's ‘gangsters, thugs, bullies’ and 'a threat to our children,'” Loeffler said. “He's also said that you can’t serve God and the military. He’s used the bible to justify these types of attacks and make other divisive statements."

While touting his outreach work, support for Black Lives Matter activists and the police, Warnock said that Loeffler is misrepresenting his record, calling her attacks a distraction.

“It is clear to me that my opponent is going to work really hard, spending millions of dollars of her own money, trying to push a narrative about me because she is clearly decided that she does not have a case to be made for why she should stay in that seat,” Warnock said, adding that many of his past sermons were taken out of context.

Warnock said Loeffler was making “cynical, political arguments” out of his religious sermons.

“I was preaching that day from a very familiar Matthew's text that says, ‘you cannot serve God and mammon.’ It was a sermon about a moral foundation for everything that we do, and that, when you have everything in order, that actually makes you a better soldier. It also makes you a better senator. And had Kelly Loeffler listened to the sermon, rather than try to make her cheap political point, she would not have used her advantage as a U.S. Senator to make millions on a pandemic, while playing it down to the people she was supposed to be representing,” Warnock said in a rebuttal.

Loeffler countered, saying, "I’m a Christian. I'm a person of deep faith. I don't need a lecture from someone who has used the bible to not only justify attacking our military... But he's also used the bible to justify abortion."

Loeffler made a point to highlight her pro-life, anti-abortion stance, and called-out Warnock for being a Christian man who supports a woman’s right to choose.

In a rebuttal, Warnock said that while he has reverence for life, he also respects choice.

“The question is: whose decision is it? And I happen to think that a patient's room is too small a place for a woman, her doctor, and the U.S. Government. I think that's too many people in the room," he said.

Health care front and center as Loeffler and Warnock spar over coronavirus response

While debating over COVID-19 relief, Warnock highlighted how the pandemic has impacted rural voters in Georgia, many of whom are battling the virus amid hospital closures and without adequate health care.

“I have been moving all across this state, especially going to rural areas. And when I go to these small towns, they’re surprised that I am there. I'm surprised that they’re surprised. They haven’t seen a U.S. senator and they’re wondering why their hospitals are closing, why Kelly Loeffler doesn’t think it's a good idea to make sure that they have health care in the middle of the pandemic,” Warnock said, adding, “Nine of our hospitals have closed and there wondering who in Washington is looking out for them.”

Warnock criticized Loeffler for her COVID-19 response and said that she did not do enough to provide relief for uninsured and unemployed Georgians suffering during the pandemic.

Loeffler touted her response to the coronavirus pandemic and noted that she was among the senators who voted to pass the $3 trillion stimulus relief package in the spring.

When asked if they would take the COVID-19 vaccine once it is approved, both candidates said they would, and ensured that they would encourage others to do the same.

Warnock said he would also make sure that Americans from disenfranchised communities would have access to the vaccine.

“I will try to work hard, as a senator, to make sure that communities that are so often marginalized don't find themselves at the back of the line again, that they have access to the vaccine,” Warnock said.

https://albahuth.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2028-5-key-takeaways-from-georgia-senate-runoff-debate.jpg https://albahuth.info/?p=2028&feed_id=731 #world

[khalilhumam]

Race for the Senate 2020: Experts’ views from the states

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/race-for-the-senate-2020-experts-views-from-the-states/

Race for the Senate 2020: Experts’ views from the states

By Andra Gillespie, John Hudak, Jason Husser, Nazita Lajevardi, Patrick R. Miller, Kal Munis, Barbara Norrander, Anand Sokhey, Tracy Osborn, Danielle Vinson The battle for control of the U.S. is now more competitive than at any point in the 2020 election cycle. Record sums of money have poured into candidates’ coffers and outside spending in some states is at unprecedented levels. Democrats’ once-long shot chance of re-taking control of the Senate is looking increasingly likely, but state-level issues often affect U.S. Senate races, even during a presidential election. At FixGov, we asked scholars and experts on each state’s politics to contribute a brief discussion of the state of play and some of the underlying dynamics affecting individual races—a discussion that is often left out of national media coverage.

States Arizona Michigan Montana Colorado Iowa North Carolina Georgia Kansas South Carolina

Arizona

Arizona for decades was a reliably Republican state, although former senators John McCain and Jeff Flake were somewhat unconventional Republicans. In 2018, Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema bested Republican Martha McSally to become Arizona’s first Democratic senator since the mid-1990s. In 2020, McSally is defending the seat formerly held by McCain to which she was appointed. She trails Democrat Mark Kelly in the pre-election polls. A changing electorate may explain both the 2018 and 2020 Arizona senate races. Trends over the past few decades led to an Arizona electorate that has more Latinos, more college-educated white voters and fewer whites without those degrees. In addition, a survey conducted by Samara Klar and Chris Weber from the University of Arizona reveals that Arizonans in both parties are more moderate than often presumed. Finally, Arizona is a heavily urban state, with 60 percent of voters residing in Maricopa county, home of Phoenix and its suburbs. If some of those suburban voters split toward the Democratic Party, as they seem to be doing nationwide in 2020 and as they did in the 2018 Arizona senate race, this bodes well for Democrat Kelly. –Barbara Norrander, Professor of Political Science at The University of Arizona (Back to top)

Colorado

The race in Colorado between incumbent Senator Cory Gardner (R) and former Governor John Hickenlooper (D) will help determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. An early October poll conducted by the American Politics Research Lab at the University of Colorado at Boulder (CU) (10/5-10/9) found Hickenlooper with an 8-point lead over Gardner (48%-40%) among likely voters, with 11% of respondents indicating they were “undecided.” This margin has persisted in subsequent polling, and mirrors the CU poll’s numbers for the presidential contest (Biden +9). Trump is down in Colorado (by double digits in some surveys), which points to the theme of the Senate contest: can Gardner run away from Trump? In debates and advertisements, Gardner has repeatedly tried to distance himself from the president, emphasizing his bipartisan credentials and work on behalf of all Coloradans. For his part, Hickenlooper has tried to tie Gardner to Trump, and has stressed Gardner’s past statements against the Affordable Care Act. In the CU poll, the gender margins in the presidential contest were substantial: Trump led among men in the state (43%-39%), but Biden led among women (56%-33%). This gap would seem to be a vulnerability for Gardner as well, for the poll found the Senate race tied among men (45%-45%), but Hickenlooper leading among women (51%-36%). A final wrinkle in the contest is that Colorado has been doing statewide mail voting since late 2013—as of October 30th, more than 50% of registered voters in the state had already returned ballots. Indeed, Gardner is trying to run away from Trump, but he’s running out of time, and much of the race has already been run. –Anand Sokhey, Associate Professor of Political Science at The University of Colorado at Boulder (Back to top)

Georgia

We are used to thinking of Georgia as a ruby-red state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1992. The truth is that Georgia’s partisan behavior is complex and has been showing signs of increasing competitiveness for a while. It did not finish its secular realignment toward the GOP until 2010 (the year Republicans won all of the statewide offices). And when we look at margins in first-ballot Senate contests in the last 40 years, we find both Democratic and Republican candidates winning by narrow margins in the 1980s through the mid-1990s. Indeed, the only Republican Senate candidate who consistently won by double-digit margins was Johnny Isakson, whose permanent replacement will be determined by this year’s special election. While the special election features more than a dozen and a half candidates, three stand out. Raphael Warnock, the pastor of Martin Luther King’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, has emerged as the leading Democratic candidate. The incumbent appointed to replace Isakson, Senator Kelly Loeffler, faces steep competition from Congressman Doug Collins for Republican votes. Given the number of candidates in the race and Georgia’s mandate that election winners take a clear majority of the vote, most expect this race to head to a December runoff. Warnock will almost certainly advance. The question is, which leading Republican will end up in second place? The polls are too close to predict the Republican finalist. Collins and Loeffler have split key endorsements. And President Trump has not expressed a clear preference for either Republican, who have both tried to highlight their loyalty to Trump as a campaign asset. Republicans hope to consolidate around the eventual second-place winner in a runoff election and hope that Democrats will lose steam. If, however, partisan control in the Senate hangs in the balance after all of the other Senate races are decided, we should expect a long, intense, and expensive runoff election season. As with just about all of the competitive senate races nationally, President Trump’s coattails have important implications for the down-ballot contests. Regardless of who wins the presidential race in Georgia, I expect the margin to be even more narrow than the five points by which Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. This poses challenges for Republicans like Loeffler, Collins, and David Perdue (who is facing upstart Jon Ossoff[1] in the regularly scheduled senate race). They should not expect many Biden voters to split their votes down-ballot. And if Joe Biden scores the upset he clearly wants in Georgia, this will help both Ossoff and Warnock, and may help them both avoid runoffs—although there is a Libertarian candidate in the Perdue-Ossoff race who could play spoiler. –Andra Gillespie, Associate Professor of Political Science at Emory University (Back to top)

Iowa

For the Iowa Senate race, it’s back to the old adage that all politics is local. Though we typically think about Senate candidates being subject to national forces during a presidential election year, two Iowa-centric issues might swing the race in either direction for Senator Joni Ernst and her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield. First, farmers in Iowa have had a rough few years, capped by the August derecho that destroyed much of 2020’s crop. Being tuned in to agriculture in the state is a must, and Ernst’s inability to name the current “break-even” price on soybeans in a recent debate might cost her a key demographic. Second, persistently high COVID-19 cases across the state have handed the current Republican governor—Kim Reynolds—a record-low approval rating. (At 26%, she is the most unpopular governor in the United States.) Even though the governor herself is not on the ballot in 2020, in a state that voted for Obama twice and then overwhelmingly for Trump, voters certainly change their minds. Dissatisfaction with Republican state government might hurt Ernst’s reelection chances. –Tracy Osborn, Associate Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Iowa Public Policy Center, University of Iowa (Back to top)

Kansas

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but 2020 gives Democrats their best shot in decades of breaking that streak. The Democrat is State Senator Barbara Bollier, a former moderate Republican from the increasingly blue Kansas City suburbs. The Republican is Congressman Roger Marshall—a generic conservative from western Kansas. Both are doctors, but share little else in common. Bollier has defied the “conventional wisdom” that once held that her only opening in the race was for Republicans to nominate Kris Kobach, a controversial conservative who was their unsuccessful 2018 nominee for governor. As of mid-October, she had out-raised Marshall $24.3 to $5.9 million. The candidates have attracted over $40 million in outside spending, and polling has generally shown no clear leader in the race. In polls, undecided Senate voters lean to Donald Trump for president. To win, Bollier needs ticket splitters—probably Trump voters who are Republican by habit, but less partisan and conservative. Health care appeals and endorsements from Republican politicians, including former U.S. Senator Nancy Kassebaum, dominate her appeals to these voters. Conversely, Republican messaging focuses on machine-gunning numerous issues—abortion, guns, and health care, for example—at voters, unified by a common theme of labeling Bollier as “extreme” rather than moderate. The goal is to unite Trump voters behind Marshall. Depending on turnout, Bollier needs perhaps 15-20% of Trump voters to support her. That may be a tall task with Trump himself on the ballot, but one she must tackle to win. –Patrick R. Miller, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Kansas (Back to top)

Michigan

The 2020 Senate race between Gary Peters and John James is on track to become the most expensive political race to take place in Michigan history. Peters and James are both positioning themselves as nonpartisan moderate candidates, and while Peters has been in office for six years, he is not well-known among his constituents. Each party is expected to pour $100 million into this election. Heightened attention to this contest stems from efforts by Democrats to not only hold on to current Senate seats, but also gain additional ones to retake the chamber. On the flipside, 9 of the 35 Senate seats up for election this year, including the Michigan seat, are rated as either toss-ups or Democratic leaning. By mid-October, polls were finding variation in Peters’ lead over James, though a New York Times and Siena College poll indicated that the incumbent Senator Peters was just 1 percentage point ahead of Republican challenger John James. Recent polls, however, suggest that the Democrats’ investment in the race is paying off. As of the Wednesday before the election, Peters had a 10-point lead over James, winning 91.3% of Biden voters, 6.4% of Trump voters and an equal percentage of undecided voters. –Nazita Lajevardi, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University (Back to top)

Montana

Though the race has been under the radar nationally, publicly available polling shows that the U.S. Senate race in Montana is among the most competitive in the country—as it has been since Steve Bullock, Montana’s term-limited governor, announced his bid to unseat incumbent first-term Senator Steve Daines. Though reliably red at the presidential level, Montana has long been competitive down ballot. Key to Bullock’s prospects is whether he can localize the race as a decision on who best understands Montana and its unique needs. Daines, meanwhile, is doing his best to nationalize the race, framing it as a decision between a loyal foot soldier to Trump versus a would-be crony for national Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi. Localizing elections isn’t new for Montana Democrats and they successfully did so as recently as 2018. But this is their greatest challenge yet as the state’s political dynamics have changed. Specifically, the best indication that nationalization has begun to gain a foothold in Big Sky Country is that Republicans are favored in all statewide races even as Trump appears destined to win by single digits—the last time a Republican presidential candidate won Montana by single digits was in 2008, when Democrats swept six of the other seven statewide races. –Kal Munis, Postdoctoral Research Associate at Johns Hopkins University (Back to top)

North Carolina

Prior to early October, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham seemed poised to tilt the tossup U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Thom Tillis into the lean-Democratic category. Cunningham led in 13 of 13 polls conducted in September by an average of 5 percent. Cunningham, an attorney and veteran who emphasized his family values and small-town roots, pitched a campaign to appeal to unaffiliated voters while relying on anti-Trump sentiment to rally his Democratic base. Then revelations of Cunningham having a recent extramarital affair emerged in early October. Cunningham has largely avoided discussing the affair since his initial acknowledgement and apology. The Tillis campaign and its supporters launched widespread ads reminding voters of the scandal. Some ads are particularly emotional and feature other veterans depicting Cunningham as an “oath breaker” because his relationship occurred with the wife of a disabled veteran. The average of recent polls in North Carolina show Cunningham’s lead has fallen to 1.3% (a margin far too close to say either candidate has an actual lead). While this decline from Cunningham’s September advantage could be due to other factors, it seems reasonable to assume the affair has cost Cunningham a substantial number of votes. The impact of the scandal seems moderate in comparison to effects of these events on historical campaigns. However, a moderate impact is all that is needed to change the outcome of an election in a swing state like North Carolina and, potentially, to change the party in control of a closely divided U.S. Senate. –Jason Husser, Associate Professor of Political Science and Policy Studies at Elon University (Back to top)

South Carolina

South Carolina is a Republican state. No Democrat has won statewide political office since 2002. Whether Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison can change that structural reality will decide this race. He would need to expand the electorate by mobilizing African American and younger voters in record numbers, and he would still need to win some Republican voters. What allows Democrats to entertain that possibility is Senator Lindsey Graham’s complete about-face on Donald Trump over the last four years. During the 2016 campaign, Graham’s blunt and often colorful derision of Trump was widely publicized. Four years later, Graham is golfing with the president and passionately defending him. While that shored up Graham’s support from more conservative voters who have historically viewed him suspiciously because of his work with Democrats, it has soured Democrats and independents who have often voted for Graham. Whether this transformation has cost Graham support among Republicans who are disenchanted with Trump is unclear. With his record-breaking fundraising, Harrison has hammered the theme “What happened to Lindsey Graham?” and outside groups have been happy to provide specific examples including Graham’s failure to defend John McCain from Trump’s attacks. But South Carolina is still a Republican state—until it’s not. –Danielle Vinson, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Furman University (Back to top)

The editors wish to thank Saku Gopinath for her assistance with this post. [1] Jon Ossoff rose to prominence in 2017 when he nearly beat Karen Handel in the special election to replace former HHS Secretary Tom Price in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District—the seat that was formerly held by Newt Gingrich. That contest is, to date, the most expensive congressional race ever.

[realcleargoodtimes]

In a sign of how Republicans are on the defense in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign, President Trump is set to make a stop in Georgia, a once reliably Republican state where polling has tightened in a number of key races. The Peach State hasn't gone to a Democrat in a presidential race since 1992, and Trump won it by 5 points four years ago, but polling shows it very much up for grabs. The current RealClearPolitics polling average shows Joe Biden with a 0.4 percent lead, after the last three surveys have swung the Democratic nominee's way.

Dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is hurting him in the state — which saw a surge in cases over the summer — especially with suburban women, a demographic with whom he is struggling nationally. In a Quinnipiac poll of Georgia released Wednesday, 54 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, 55 percent said the virus was out of control and 59 percent said they did not trust Trump to tell the truth about his health. (The poll showed Biden up 7 points, an outlier from the majority of polls that show a tight race.) Republicans in the state hope to run up margins among white rural voters to help balance what is likely to be a large deficit in and around Atlanta.

Some of the Democratic motivation in the state stems from the 2018 gubernatorial race, which some Democrats believe was stolen by Secretary of State Brian Kemp, whose office purged hundreds of thousands of voters from the rolls before the election and closed polling places in counties with large Black populations. A report released by the ACLU of Georgia claimed that nearly 200,000 voters were wrongly removed. Kemp defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams by 55,000 votes.

Since the loss, Abrams’s voting rights group, Fair Fight, has made a push to increase voter registration.

Residents looking to vote early in the state have seen long waits — including over 10 hours on the first day in certain precincts — which officials blamed on the check-in system. Georgians faced similar lengthy delays in June’s primary, spurring calls for reform.

“Georgia voters are excited and setting records every hour — and this is all during a pandemic, lest we forget. … We will have a successful election, keeping all of our voting options accessible in all parts of Georgia, regardless of ZIP code,” Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Wednesday. “Some precincts are more favored than others by voters and they just have longer lines ... [but] everyone will have the opportunity to vote.”

Georgia set a new one-day record for early voting, and when that is combined with returned absentee ballots, over 10 percent of the state’s electorate has already cast a general election vote.

Hundreds of people wait in line for early voting on Monday, Oct. 12, 2020, in Marietta, Georgia. (Ron Harris/AP) Hundreds of people wait in line for early voting in Marietta, Ga., on Monday. (Ron Harris/AP) “As angry as we should be about the injustice and the voter suppression that is on display in Georgia, we should be extraordinarily pleased that people are willing to fight back and to make their voices heard, despite the challenges they face,” Abrams said on CNN Tuesday.

Republicans in Georgia are also defending two Senate seats, with Sen. David Perdue up for reelection this cycle and another race to fill out the term of Sen. Johnny Isakson, who retired last year. Perdue is defending his seat against Democrat Jon Ossoff, who rose to national prominence at the age of 30 when he narrowly lost a special election for the U.S. House in 2017, which helped him raise $21 million for his Senate race in the third quarter, a record for the state. The polling average gives Perdue a slim lead, although Ossoff has been the leader in a few surveys in a race that’s seen more than $125 million in combined spending. A Libertarian Party candidate in the race could keep both candidates under 50 percent, which would require a runoff between the two top vote getters on Jan. 5, possibly putting control of the Senate in doubt until then.

The other Senate race is far less traditional. Kemp appointed businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to fill the seat late last year, and she has already become embroiled in an insider-trading controversy tied to the coronavirus pandemic. She is a vocal critic of the Black Lives Matter movement in a state that’s one-third Black. She is facing over a dozen challengers to fill the last two years of Isakson’s term. Her most high-profile GOP rival is Rep. Doug Collins, who was one of the president’s most ardent defenders during impeachment and whose race against Loeffler has turned into a contest between who can express the most fervent support for Trump. The president has not made an endorsement in the race.

The top Democratic candidate is the Rev. Raphael Warnock, the pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, who recently earned the endorsement of former President Barack Obama. Democrats — including Abrams, who’s also endorsed Warnock — have urged Matt Lieberman, the son of former Connecticut senator and vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman, to drop out of the race to allow support to consolidate behind Warnock, who has topped 40 percent in a pair of recent polls.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock speaks to the media at a campaign event on October 3, 2020 in Lithonia, Georgia. (Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images) Democratic Senate candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock at a campaign event in Lithonia, Ga., on Oct. 3. (Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images) The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted Loeffler’s seat from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, which is also the status of the Perdue-Ossoff race. Shortly after the rating change, Loeffler held an event to announce she was being endorsed by Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican candidate for the U.S. House and an outspoken supporter of the QAnon conspiracy with a history of making extremist remarks. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Collins, who will embark on a “Trump Defender Tour” of the state this weekend, also sought Greene’s endorsement.

Georgia state law requires a candidate to win with at least 50 percent of the vote. If control of the Senate comes down to a runoff for one or both of the seats — a distinct possibility — both parties are certain to mount huge, and hugely expensive, campaigns in the weeks between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5.

There are also two tight House races in the state. In the Sixth District, comprising much of the northern Atlanta suburbs, freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath is looking to hold onto the seat she flipped in the 2018 midterm wave. She’s in a rematch with Karen Handel, a former Georgia secretary of state, whom McBath defeated by a single point two years ago. There is also a tight race to fill the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Rob Woodall, whose Seventh District covers the area northwest of Atlanta, which has come down to Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux (a professor and former state budget director who nearly won the seat in 2018) and Republican Rick McCormick (an emergency room doctor and Marine pilot). Cook currently rates both contests as Lean Democrat.

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