#Reforger 88

[boredtechnologist]

SSI's Reforger '88 for the Apple ][ computer

Reviewing SSI's "Reforger '88," a game simulating NATO's defense of the Fulda Gap, through a philosophical lens involves examining its strategic and military themes in the context of broader existential, ethical, and geopolitical considerations.

1. The Ethics of War and Military Strategy: "Reforger '88" places players in a hypothetical Cold War scenario, focusing on NATO's defense strategies against a potential Soviet invasion through the Fulda Gap. This setting invites deep philosophical inquiry into the ethics of war and military strategy. The game challenges players to consider the moral implications of warfare, particularly in a Cold War context where the specter of nuclear conflict looms large. It raises questions about just war theory, the morality of preemptive defense strategies, and the ethical considerations in balancing aggressive tactics with the preservation of human life.

2. The Concept of Deterrence and Mutual Assured Destruction: The game's Cold War setting is intrinsically linked to the concept of nuclear deterrence and the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD). Philosophically, this reflects a bleak view of human cooperation and trust, where peace is maintained not through mutual understanding but through the fear of total annihilation. It invites players to contemplate the paradox of achieving peace through the threat of ultimate destruction and the psychological and moral consequences of living under constant threat.

3. The Nature of Geopolitical Power and Realpolitik: "Reforger '88" involves players in the complex dynamics of geopolitical power, echoing themes of realpolitik – politics based on practical and material factors rather than ethical or ideological considerations. The game encourages players to think about the nature of power, the influence of geopolitical strategies on global stability, and the ethical implications of political decisions that prioritize national interest and power over moral or humanitarian concerns.

4. The Individual’s Role in the Machinery of War: As a war simulation game, "Reforger '88" places the player in the role of a decision-maker within the vast machinery of war. This aspect raises philosophical questions about individual responsibility and agency within large organizational structures like the military. It prompts reflection on how individuals reconcile personal ethics with the roles they are required to play in larger systems, especially in scenarios that involve life-and-death decisions.

5. The Psychological Impact of Simulating War: Engaging in a war simulation game also invites analysis of the psychological impact of simulating violent conflict. Philosophically, it raises questions about the desensitization to violence, the moral ramifications of engaging with war as entertainment, and the blurring of lines between simulated strategy and the grave realities of actual warfare.

6. The Human Cost of War and the Value of Peace: Finally, "Reforger '88," through its depiction of a potential military conflict, underscores the human cost of war. It invites players to reflect on the value of peace and the profound impact of war on human lives and societies. The game serves as a reminder of the tragedies of war and the importance of diplomatic and peaceful solutions to international conflicts.

In summary, SSI's "Reforger '88" is more than a strategic war game; it is a platform for deep philosophical exploration. The game engages players with themes such as the ethics of war and military strategy, the concept of deterrence, geopolitical power dynamics, individual responsibility within war, the psychological impact of simulating war, and the human cost of conflict. Through its gameplay and narrative, "Reforger '88" offers a medium for players to engage with complex ethical, existential, and geopolitical questions.

[the-afronick]

Normally I like to tally up everything I've beaten on an annual basis but I've been lacking the last two years, so this is three years' worth of finished games: 2021-2023. Also been lacking in finishing stuff until the last third of this year but I think I've got the swing of things again. There are other games finished/completed I've chosen to not count here as they were simply different ports of games I've already done before, but I'm still counting MW1 Remastered to make it a nice even 50.

Since this is all getting typed up right now in one afternoon, enjoy some quick thoughts on each of these.

Finished

Yakuza Kiwami (2017) - Yeah it still feels like a weird version of the immaculate Yakuza 0. I'm not the authority on these but I'm unsure if I'd recommend this over the PS2 game to someone who is willing to play the original.

Call of Duty: Black Ops II (2012) - I liked the split campaigns, though moreso the 80s one. Probably need to play Arma 1 or Reforger to satisfy that Cold War craving now that '83 is canned.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered (2016) - I think I got this with Infinite Warfare off of a keysite primarily to use this remaster as an excuse to replay CoD4. Still enjoyed it and really ended up liking the enhanced visuals/touch-ups in animations. 2007 is still fine to play but this was a fun detour. I want to try the Wii version at some point.

Death Stranding (2019) - A game I was way more curious about its story than I was its gameplay pre-release ended up being enjoyed the other way around. I loved Hiking Simulator 2019, cresting peaks and sliding down into cities while some Low Roar kicks in... and everything about the environments as you head west are the greatest. I'm probably gonna get the PC version of Director's Cut to play it again at some point.

Shellshock: Nam '67 (2004) - What should be a simple arcade third-person shooter ends up being frustrating because reticle bloom is way too much for some of the engagement distances. Not the worst I've ever played but I'm probably not going back to it ever.

Thunder Force AC (1990/2020 Sega AGES release) - I mean I like Thunder Force IV more but hey III's pretty good, and so is its arcade version.

Vietcong (2003) - Originally recommended to me by a friend and I kick myself for not getting to it sooner. Fun, tense campaign of having to take caution every with every move, guns felt great, and overall I had a good time. Regrettably couldn't play the online but ah well.

Postal 2: Paradise Lost (2015) - More of what I remember from playing Postal 2. It's still silly.

Touhou Youyoumu ~ Perfect Cherry Blossom (2003) - This is the one. Yeah, 6 gets the recognition because it's the reboot and has the top-tiered fan favorite characters but 7 takes the wrinkles of 6 and irons them out to a fine crispness. Good patterns, good bosses, and good music. I have no complaints. Want to play a Touhou game? This one.

Touhou Reiiden ~ The Highly Responsive to Prayers (1997) - I first played this at an anime convention in a hotel room full of Touhou cosplayers on their laptop they had hooked up to their TV, mainly wanting to show off where it all started. Touhou's kinda fun as a Breakout game, but this is more of a curiosity than anything nowadays.

Ninja Gaiden (1988) - My second favorite Castlevania game, but man FUCK Act 6.

NieR Replicant ver.1.22474487139... (2021) - I mean what else can be said that hasn't already. It's nice that Nier 1 got a revisit after Automata set the world on fire and even though this didn't do its numbers, I missed my friends :)

U.N. Squadron (1990) - Glorious. The SNES/SFC version offers a fantastic and better conversion from the arcade game allowing for choice in mission order and choice in plane selection (though the YF-23 and F200 are effectively the only way to win) to work in tandem with your pilot's unique skill. Not particularly a great adaptation from Area 88 if you're looking for its story and characters but that's not what this game is aiming for - instead, it takes the elements that would work in a shooter and only those elements. You're mercenaries so money is the key to everything, mainly your weapons loadout. There are large superweapons, some taken straight from the manga. The only downside is the grinding element to get more money for better planes in the form of a strafing run special stage that you'll have to play over and over. Highly recommend.

IKUSAAAAAAAN! (2018) - I actually can't comment too much on this one since I only played it through once but it was fun and highly energetic, and Iku is my second fave 2hu so that's a plus.

Halo: Fireteam Raven (2018) - "hey let's play this since we're all together and it's a Saturday night which means bad co-op game night but now IRL!" (moments before friend temporarily lost their wallet.) We finished the fight, but at what cost? About $20 and an hour.

F-Zero X (1997) - Everyone likes GX (and you should) but I like to describe X as the first five feet of stairs on the difficulty curve of F-Zero. You absolutely can lift yourself up those missing steps but wouldn't it be better to ease your way on up? Very fast and grippy compared to SNES F-Zero. I also like the rock/metal soundtrack as opposed to GX's industrial (which again, still good, just not as good). Dream Chaser the greatest. Also that arranged music album is killer.

Project Wingman (2020) - Did you like Ace Combat Zero? Of course you did. Here you go, have some more. It's kinda weird how even with the option to bring in multiple types of special weapons, the strongest thing you're armed with are your normal-ass machine guns.

Neo Contra (2004) - The Shock Troopers 3 we deserved. All I have to do to sell you on this is show you the opening to the one stage where Bill and Jaguar are running on top of helicopter blades.

Udongein X (2021) - There are a surprising amount of Mega Man-inspired Touhou fangames out there to the point where they can be divided into inspired by classic series and X amongst others (maybe there's a Battle Network one too?) This is the latter and since it felt most like MMX1 to me, I liked it a lot.

Dimension Tripper Neptune: TOP NEP (2022) - Welcome to the Fantasy nep Zone.

Mega Man 8 (1996) - I hate this fuckin game.

Made Man (2006) - Frustrating. I was expecting a mafia clone of Max Payne but instead it's a cover-shooter with the most mediocre gunplay and braindead AI I've seen in a while. Also the bullet time only activates once you fill the meter and upon manual-deactivation, you lose all of the remainder. Kind of a shame too because some of the setpieces are fun (one of my favorites being a gunfight in the rafters above a rock concert at Madison Square Garden) but it just sucks otherwise. The main voice actor, Rick Pasqualone, does too good of a job for this game when everyone else is phoning it in and I'm glad he got a second shot in a better game as Vito from Mafia II.

P-47 Aces (1995) - Recommended by my friend @bizarredawdler. I got my ass beat.

Carrier Air Wing (1990) - If you liked the arcade version of U.N. Squadron specifically, this is more of the same. Not as good but hey, dogfighting the space shuttle isn't something you do everyday.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder's Revenge (2022) - This was fun, and probably the first beat'em up that I began to understand rather than just fumble my way through. Would like to do a co-op run with friends at some point. Played as Donatello, he seems cool.

Freedom Planet 2 (2022) - My GOTY 2022. Despite my teasing in numerous late night calls that this was one of those games where the slightest inconvenience resulted in a delay, I can honestly say my expectations were met, exceeded, and blown away. Enjoyed Freedom Planet 1 a lot back in 2015 and while originally hesitant that the artstyle change would bring a gameplay change, all of that faded away when that first demo came out. It's still just as fast and hard-hitting as the first one if not moreso. The reworks to each characters' movesets are nice. Neera is a great additional player character. God I wish someone could get these homebrew'd onto a Saturn because that's the only way this could get more perfect. My one (1) complaint is now Classic Mode being locked behind beating Story Mode once which, while I like the cutscenes and characters, makes it a little harder to recommend to people who just want the pure gameplay that you could immediately access in 1. That's the only thing I'd change.

Panzer Dragoon: Remake (2020) - It sure is Panzer Dragoon 1 but prettier, but oh boy I would not recommend it for full-price precisely because it is Panzer Dragoon 1 with all of its under-an-hour length intact. There's an achievement for playing it for 100 hours... also one for dying once. Don't have either!

Drainus (2022) - Team Ladybug caught my eye and captured my heart with Touhou Luna Nights, and ever since then I'm on board with whatever they've thrown at me. I still haven't finished Deedlit in Wonder Labyrinth but I did play this, which was a pretty fun, if not easy STG. Looks nice too!

Call of Duty: Black Ops III (2015) - God the campaign sucked except for one part (you know the one). If you get this, only get it because Zombies workshop support is still alive and well.

Halo 5: Guardians (2015) - I cannot, cannot, cannot stress enough how many times I said "Halo 4 did this better." An absolute goddamn slog of a singleplayer with a dumbass story. The teammate AI will not save you or will kill themselves trying to save you despite the game being designed around squad mechanics. Halo's never been good at boss fights, so here have the same one over and over and now there's three of him hahahaha! I hear "multiplayer is good though!" sure it might be, wouldn't know, don't really care to know.

Dolphin Blue (2003) - Neat little run and gun. Liked the 2D sprites on 3D backgrounds here, very vibrant.

Demonizer (2020) - Neat little shooter, though it does punish you harsher later on for taking hits and losing your allies. One of those if you mess up late you might as well restart.

Ace Combat: Joint Assault (2010) - I really enjoyed Skies of Deception, the other PSP Ace Combat. This one is not that, dropping the Strangereal setting for our own and going with a plot involving insurance CEOs I think. Back to linear mission structure, no choosing the order. Could not play the Joint missions in which you and friends tackle operations at the same time affecting one another which is this game's entire gimmick. I don't remember any of the original music but there are plenty of AC2/3 tracks here which are good.

Demon Front (2002) - Kinda hard run and gun, though it's something I'll have to put more time into to get the groove of it. Otherwise, neat Metal Slug-inspired game! Recommended by a friend who I'm not sure wants to be named.

Raiden II (1993) - I like Raiden. Raiden II is more of that. Simple as.

Burnout (2001) - Another one of those games where you probably played a later one and went back only to discover there's kind of an idea here but it needs to get flushed out a little bit more. I started on this one back in the day and only finally got around to finishing, this time on the Xbox version. Not a whole lot going on here apart from being a standard AA racer of the time with a crash mechanic that's more discouraged than encouraged like its later entries. That AI rubberbanding isn't nearly as bad as NFS Underground 1's but it gets pretty bad. I don't regret playing this but I don't see myself going back, especially now having started 2 which is the ideal form of early Burnout.

Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn (2013) - After teasing my friend @thathomestar for years about it, I finally caved. I don't know MMOs or their systems or what makes for a good one, so I won't speak to its quality. I can make my catgirl fish so hell yeah.

Quake: Dimension of the Past (2016) - Where's the ammo? My gun needs more food!

Quake: Dimension of the Machine (2021) - Gameplay-wise it's more Quake which I love but holy shit do some of these levels look good.

8-Bit Commando (2011) - I thought this would be an okay Contra clone but instead it's subpar. I do like the verticality of your path, but it does feel more linear than it should be. Difficulty is easy even on Hard Mode. There's this weird thing where it'll upload replays of your gameplay as workshop items if you let it, so turn that off as soon as possible. Otherwise, you can't buy this anymore outside of keysites. Done to get footage of the dopefish in it.

Operation C (1991) - Quick, easy, but it is Contra, and nobody does it like Contra.

Contra III: The Alien Wars (1992) - Much like Super Castlevania IV, the jump to the Super Nintendo meant that Contra was gonna get a boost in just about every aspect... and much like Castlevania, I still prefer the original NES game to its SNES sequel. That said, I do think Contra III comes out ahead of CV4 with the amount of cool moments that happen, and abilities like locking the aim direction or standing in place and rotating your angle of shooting are accounted for in the increased difficulty. Very cool title, but personally not my favorite.

The Citadel (2020) - This is a fascinating game. While riding the retro-FPS wave, it still includes mechanics from modern shooters like bullet drop, travel time, weapon condition, hunger(?), full-body awareness (even as sprites!), and so on. Levels are really monochromatic. Very bloody and loud when it gets violent, and boy howdy does it get violent. And yet, there's this certain bleak serenity during level exploration that I haven't felt in a while. Looking forward to the sequel.

Castlevania: The Adventure (1989) - You know what? "Battle of the Holy" isn't just a good song, it's good even by Castlevania standards. And that's about the only good thing I can say about this dull game. I'll have to play ReBirth at some point.

Castlevania II: Belmont's Revenge (1991) - Better, but I'd rather be playing something else.

Risk of Rain 2 (2020) - This is cheating since I've only seen credits twice or three times, and I normally don't do the roguelikes so again I won't speak too much to it, but I like this one. I've had a fun time alone but it's definitely a lot of fun with friends, and I hope we can come back to it.

Kid Dracula (1990) - What if Castlevania was Mega Man? is my clickbait attention grabber, but also a pretty apt description. It's easy apart from this one railcart section which I felt like I got through on sheer luck than anything else. Still enjoyable.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (1992/2021 Absolute Version) - I've never actually beaten Sonic 2 legit, half from getting pissed off by the special stages and half because I get bored by the time Oil Ocean rolls around. Now that the special stages are actually in 3D and have a draw distance, I finally was able to get through and grab all Chaos Emeralds for the first time without save states or sound test cheat codes. And I was finally able to appreciate just how good Sonic 2 is once that weight was lifted. The levels are fun and a vast improvement over Sonic 1's, and the 2-Act structure works a lot better for pacing. And during the final boss, doing it legit gave a level of pressure that a final boss should rather than turning on debug mode and spamming rings to help out. I think I can go beat this even more legit on my Genesis without the modern assists, but it is thanks to this version that I gained the confidence to do so. Just needed a little help up is all.

Sonic Triple Trouble 16-Bit (2022) - I had a big old dumb smile on my face the entire time.

Sonic After the Sequel (2013/2017 DX version) - I enjoyed this one too. A bit more lengthy due to a four-act structure per zone and the special stages are slightly more miss than hit for me, but it all worked out in the end. The true final boss had my friends and I laughing.

That's all. I'm gonna try to finish up a couple more Sonic games in the new year and also try to beat the Burnout series, with some other stuff along the way.

[overgrown-estate]

11 Debt of Loyalty, by Pete Venters for "Weatherlight"

22 Confound, by Doug Chaffee for "Planeshift"

33 Masako the Humorless, by Ben Thompson for "Champions of Kamigawa"

44 Nevermaker, by Chuck Lukacs for "Morningtide"

55 Dementia Bat, by Daarken for "New Phyrexia"

66 Dark Deal, by Scott Murphy for "Fate Reforged"

77 Mastermind's Acquisition, by Svetlin Velinov for "Rivals of Ixalan"

88 Asmodeus the Archfiend, by Aleksi Briclot for "Adventures in the Forgotten Realm"

[retrocgads]

USA 1985

[heliopauseentertainments]

So this morning we've got some updates posted.

Chapter 81 of Reforged is up, as scheduled. I'm currently working on chapter 88, which is the first chapter of the final arc.

Chapter 19 of An Unintentional Voyage is up (and extra long). The last two chapters are also written but just need editing and beta comments.

I've finished 3/7 MegaStar Week prompts and have some ideas for more of them. Good progress.

[phantasmicfrog]

What’s gonna happen in episode 123

So we know the next episode is long enough to push back the rebroadcast right. I've done some math on what that could mean we're gonna see, if you'll bear with me. It takes a minute.

So, this is the first episode in covid era CR that has had this announcement. That should mean that this is the longest episode in covid era CR. The previous longest covid CR episode was 105 - Rumble at Rumblecusp, sitting at a length of 4:42:22 on YouTube. so im going to assume that means this new episode is longer than 4 hours, 50 minutes.

The reason i need to know that is so i know what to look for in other old episodes. I looked back at every other Critical Role episode that have a video length longer than 4 hours 50 minutes. looking through i found 12 episodes (out of like 240 at this point) that meet that criteria. There are seven episodes in campaign 1 (44, 49, 71, 88, 100, 113, and 114), and five in campaign 2 (26, 45, 76, 86, and 98) that reach that length.

Then I looked into WHY it is that they were so long. Looking into it, I’ve split them into three categories; Combat, Death, and Narrative. We’re just gonna go in order here.

FOR COMBAT - C1:71 (Vorugal fight), C1:88 (Kraken fight), C1:100 (Ziggurat fight), C1:114 (Vecna fight), C2:26 (First Lorenzo fight), C2:45 (Blue Dragon fight), C2:86 (Obann final fight pt. 1), C2:98 (Fjord Assassination fight). So out of the twelve episodes, Combat makes up eight of the reasons why. A staggering 67%.

FOR DEATH. I wanna preface that I made this a separate category because these deaths happened outside of combat, but you can add this into combat or narrative if that pleases you. ANYWAYS - C1:44 (Vex’ahlia dying in the Sunken Tomb from a trap) and C1:113 (death Kaylie and Cassandra and near death of Gilmore). Only two out of twelve for Death, leaving it at 17% of the time.

FOR NARRATIVE - C1:49 (the Sphinx’s Riddle) and C2:76 (reforging Fjord and the Star Razor). Another two out of twelve for Narrative, giving it 17%, much the same as Death.

What do the past 374 words actually mean??? I think it means we’re almost definitely gonna be seeing a deadly fight. Specifically between the Mighty Nein and the Tomb Takers. Even if it doesn’t mean that, all this math tells us that this is most likely a deadly fight or some other kind of death. None of which sounds good! But I bet it’ll be fucking exciting!!! I can’t wait.

[commandertheory]

Quantifying Color Power Rankings

This post came about because I was trying to figure out how to quantify the power levels of the different colors in Commander.

Before I get into my methods, be aware that, by necessity, I’m condensing a lot of nuanced information down into numbers. Some caveats about this discussion:

I plan on focusing mainly on cards and effects that are generally useful in Commander. Although there are a ton of cards that are very powerful if you build your deck around them, they tend to push the power level of niche archetypes, rather than improving the position of all decks of that color. For example, while Puresteel Paladin and Sram helped White equipment decks with card flow issues, they didn’t do much to help White decks in general.

Also, we are going to be looking at the more efficient end of the Commander card pool. While Fissure is instant-speed creature removal in monored, it’s way too expensive to see play in Commander (EDHREC backs this assertion up; it’s in ~0% of the decks that can run it). When we talk about how many cards in a given category in a given color, I’ll be talking about cards that are cheap enough (in terms of mana) to see a reasonable amount of play, not expensive outliers.

Speaking of cheap cards, I’m not super interested in limiting the discussion based on budget concerns. I am gonna bring up ridiculously valuable cards like Imperial Seal because I think we need to talk about what’s possible in the format in order to get a good sense of where the imbalance lies. 

Alright, let’s jump in.

I would argue that there are only a handful of types of powerful cards in Commander. I think that powerful cards either:

Increase your resources

Improve the quality of your resources (e.g., tutors)

Answer your opponents’ threats

Kill people

I think that we can divide up those categories where it’s appropriate:

Increase your resources

Cards

Mana

Life

Improve the quality of your resources

Answer your opponents’ threats

Spot

Instants and sorceries (counterspells)

Creature

Artifact

Enchantment

Planeswalker

Land

Mass

Creature

Artifact

Enchantment

Planeswalker

Land

Kill people

We can also remove the categories of cards that aren’t that important in Commander or which don’t really contribute to any particular color’s power in this format.

For example, straight lifegain is generally not good in Commander; most of the lifegain we see is paired with some other category on this list (like Aetherflux Reservoir or Gray Merchant and killing people). Mass planeswalker removal and mass enchantment removal isn’t as important as mass creature removal and mass artifact removal because enchantments and PWs generally aren’t as common in Commander. Planeswalkers also have a built-in answer, so spot removal for them isn’t very important, either. The best examples of spot land destruction (Strip Mine, Wasteland, Tectonic Edge, Ghost Quarter, Dust Bowl) are all colorless so there’s not much point including this category when we’re trying to determine the relative power of colors in Commander.

That leaves us with:

Increase your resources

Cards

Mana

Improve the quality of your resources

Answer your opponents’ threats

Spot

Instants and sorceries (counterspells)

Creature

Artifact

Enchantment

Mass

Creature

Artifact

Land

Kill people

I want to clarify “cards that kill people” a little bit. When I think of cards that kill people, I don’t think of large beatsticks or token armies. If a threat is easily answered with spot removal or a board wipe, when it kills somebody, it’s more a reflection on your opponent’s failure to find an answer, not your threat’s potency. To me, cards that kill people are the ones that:

kill your opponents the turn you cast them and 

aren’t easily disrupted by removal.

You can Doom Blade a Craterhoof, but it did its damage as soon as its ETB trigger was put on the stack. Likewise, you can kill a creature in response to an Insurrection, but there’ll still likely be more than enough power on the board to kill you. Other good examples of cards that kill people are Expropriate and Exsanguinate, since they’re powerful enough to win the game almost out of nowhere and they can only be easily answered via counterspell. In contrast, I don’t think Storm Herd is a good win condition because it gives your opponents a round of turns to answer it and can probably only kill one person at a time without assistance.

I also want to clarify spot removal a little bit. I think of spot removal as something that can stop what your opponent is doing at any time. If it can’t stop the Zealous Conscripts that your opponent’s Kiki-Jiki is targeting, it’s not a great example of spot removal. If it can’t stop the Rings of Brighthearth from copying a Basalt Monolith’s untap ability, it’s not great spot removal.

So we have some categories of powerful effects, and we can consult Mark Rosewater’s Mechanical Color Pie article to see what colors have access to what effects. How are we going to turn these into numerical scores for power level for each color?

In a 100-card singleton format like Commander, what a color can do is not as important as what it can do consistently and efficiently. Monored can answer enchantments efficiently because it has Chaos Warp, but that’s one card in 99, and you’re not likely to draw it in most games. 

I think the best measure of whether a color can do something is whether there are enough efficient versions of that effect that you can expect to consistently find them by the time you need them. Figuring out when you “need” a way to kill your opponents or a way to increase your cards in hand is tricky, but figuring out when you “need” an answer is a little easier.

In some playgroups, you need to be able to answer a threat by turn 5 or you’ll die. Most Commander metagames are a bit slower than that, but it’s not super difficult to figure out when the haymakers usually come down in your playgroup; I think in most, it would be turn 8-10ish. Let’s say that a 90% chance to draw the effect you need by turn 8 is proof that a color is “good enough” for the purposes of ensuring you have an answer to a threat reasonably consistently.

If we plug a 99 card deck, a sample size of 15 (7 card opener + 8 draw steps), and a desired success percentage of 90% into a hypergeometric calculator, you’re told that you need to run 13 redundant effects of whatever you’re trying to do. This may seem like a lot, but note that some effects can substitute for others. A Beast Within counts toward Green’s spot removal for artifacts, creatures, enchantments, and planeswalkers (and lands, I guess). Efficient card draw spells increase the number of cards you see, so you don’t have to run as many of the desired effect if you’re running a bunch of card draw. 

Most importantly, efficient tutors are wild cards that count towards every other effect you could possibly want in a game of Commander. 

So if your color has enough efficient tutors that you can expect to draw one or more by the critical point in every game, then you only need to have access to a single copy of any given effect to ensure that you’ll be able to find that one effect every game. 

For example, there is one spell in Black that kills artifacts (not really counting Gate to Phyrexia):

It’s incredibly inefficient, but it exists. If monoblack was in the same boat as monored, then there’s no way this could help you answer artifacts in most games. But monoblack has access to a million tutors; just counting the ones that cost four or less, we have:

Demonic Tutor

Vampiric Tutor

Cruel Tutor

Beseech the Queen

Imperial Seal

Grim Tutor

Diabolic Intent

Doomsday

Diabolic Tutor

Insidious Dreams

Mastermind’s Acquisition

Adding those 11 cards to Phyrexian Tribute, we get an 88% chance to find artifact destruction in monoblack by turn 8. Sounds good enough to me!

There only needs to be one color pie mistake in Black for the effect to show up in every game, and I’d argue that it’s the same for Green. 

Green is not supposed to be the color of creature control, and by the numbers, that appears to be the case. In terms of unconditional instant-speed Green spot removal that hits creatures, it’s basically just Beast Within. In terms of mass removal, you’re limited to Ezuri’s Predation and the newly printed Apex Altisaur.

Green may only have one Apex Altisaur, but it has a hell of a lot of ways to find it:

Green Sun’s Zenith

Worldly Tutor

Sylvan Tutor

Chord of Calling

Fierce Empath

Fauna Shaman

Tooth and Nail

Survival of the Fittest

Natural Order

Finale of Devastation

Summoner’s Pact

None of the above are bad cards in Commander; most of them are format staples and you’re not hurting your deck by running any of them. They also make it so that you are practically guaranteed to find any one-of effect that makes it to print, provided that card is a creature.

Also, while other colors have to run 13 ways to kill artifacts, 13 ways to kill enchantments, 13 ways to kill creatures, and 13 win conditions if they want to have access to those effects by turn 8, Green can get most of the way there by running 11 efficient tutors, 1 Bane of Progress, 1 Apex Altisaur, and 1 Craterhoof Behemoth.

Not only does Green get to stretch its few extremely efficient answers very far because it has so many tutors, but it also gets to make much more efficient use of its limited deck slots. Those 14 cards that cover you perfectly across 4 categories of useful effects would take up 52 card slots if there were no overlap among the cards and no wildcard tutors in your color identity. 

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at how many efficient effects we have in each color:

Ways to Increase Your Resources

Cards

White: Mentor of the Meek (if running tokens/weenies)

Blue: Too many to count

Black: Too many to count

Red: Wheel of Fortune, Reforge the Soul

Green: Shamanic Revelation, Collective Unconscious, Regal Force (if going wide), Hunter’s Insight, Hunter’s Prowess, Soul’s Majesty, Rishkar’s Expertise, Garruk, Primal Hunter, Return of the Wildspeaker (if going tall)

Mana (permanent)

White: Knight of the White Orchid, Smothering Tithe

Blue: Trinket Mage, Fabricate, Whir of Invention (for Sol Ring/Mana Crypt)

Black: Cabal Coffers, Crypt Ghast

Red: Neheb, the Eternal

Green: Too many to count

Tutors

White: Enlightened Tutor, Idyllic Tutor, Recruiter of the Guard

Blue: Mystical Tutor, Merchant Scroll, Personal Tutor

Black: Too many to count

Red: Gamble, Imperial Recruiter

Green: Too many (creature-based tutors) to count

Answers to Opponents’ Threats

Spot Removal

Instants and sorceries (counterspells)

White: None

Blue: Too many to count

Black: None

Red: None

Green: None 

Creature

White: Swords to Plowshares, Path to Exile, Generous Gift

Blue: Pongify, Rapid Hybridization, Reality Shift

Black: Too many to count

Red: Chaos Warp, Redcap Melee

Green: Beast Within

Artifact

White: Disenchant, Generous Gift, Aura of Silence, Seal of Cleansing

Blue: None

Black: None

Red: Abrade, Chaos Warp, Goblin Cratermaker

Green: Too many to count

Enchantment

White: Disenchant, Generous Gift, Aura of Silence, Seal of Cleansing

Blue: None

Black: None

Red: Chaos Warp

Green: Too many to count

Mass Removal

Creature

White: Too many to count

Blue: Cyclonic Rift, Evacuation

Black: Damnation, Toxic Deluge, Crux of Fate, Hellfire, Nightmare Unmaking, Extinguish All Hope, Life’s Finale, Black Sun’s Zenith

Red: Blasphemous Act, Rolling Earthquake, Chain Reaction, Earthquake, Subterranean Tremors, Fault Line, Starstorm

Green: Apex Altisaur, Ezuri’s Predation

Artifact

White: Austere Command, Cleansing Nova, Purify, Consulate Crackdown, Hour of Revelation (kinda), Planar Cleansing (kinda), Akroma’s Vengeance (kinda)

Blue:  Cyclonic Rift

Black: None

Red: Shattering Spree, By Force, Meltdown, Fiery Confluence, Subterranean Tremors, Shatterstorm, Vandalblast

Green: Bane of Progress, Wave of Vitriol, Creeping Corrosion, Seeds of Innocence

Land

White: Armageddon, Ravages of War, Cataclysm, Hokori, Catastrophe

Blue: Sunder, Rising Waters, Back to Basics

Black: Infernal Darkness, Death Cloud, Contamination

Red: Ruination, Blood Moon, Magus of the Moon, Bust, Thoughts of Ruin, Epicenter, Keldon Firebombers (kinda)

Green: None

Win Conditions/Cards that Kill People

White: None

Blue: Expropriate

Black: Exsanguinate

Red: Insurrection

Green: Craterhoof Behemoth

Here’s what that count looks like without the tutor wild card effect. Some things to note:

I’ve capped each category at 10 unique effects because of diminishing returns; 20 board wipes are not twice as good as 10 and for most effects there is a maximum beyond which drawing more is not particularly useful. 

I’m including counterspells as spot removal for creatures, artifacts, and enchantments, although obviously there’s a temporal component to their ability to answer threats.

Green card draw is variable depending on whether your deck is going wide, going tall, both, or neither.

What does this tell us about the power level of the various colors?

If you discount the effect of tutors, Blue seems to be in the lead, since its large suite of counterspells give it efficient answers to every spell type. Green comes in second, Black third, and White and Red are 4th and 5th, respectively.

If you include each color’s tutors as wildcards for effects for which they have at least one good card, the numbers look like this (highlight on big swings):

Once you count tutors as additional copies of the effects they can search out, the landscape shifts. Green and Black get a huge boost from their tutors, to the point where the gap between them and Blue almost completely closes. In fact, Green may surpass Blue in a deck that can run all of Green’s somewhat-conditional card draw effects. Meanwhile, White and Red, the colors least able to tutor, barely shift at all from their standing when tutors are factored out.

Discussion

What does this tell us about how the disparities between the colors could be evened out?

It tells us that tutors are the real problem. To get white on a comparable level to green, Wizards would need to print 10 win conditions, 4 spot removal spells that hit artifacts or enchantments, and 5 mass removal spells that hit artifacts or enchantments; that’s 19 cards that all have to be efficient enough to see play in Commander. Alternatively, Wizards could print a bunch of enchantment tutors and then the few high-powered enchantments in those categories can provide all that the color needs, in the same way that Green’s creature tutors cover for relatively few mass artifact/enchantment removal effects and win conditions.

However, I want to note that Wizards is pretty down on printing new tutors at the moment. We talked to Gavin Verhey at MagicFest Vegas and he said that Wizards doesn’t think that tutors make games of Commander more fun, so it looks like Green and Black’s duopoly on tutors is unlikely to be challenged anytime soon.

How much does the raw power of individual, high-profile commanders skew this argument?

In both measures of color power level (with tutor wild card effect and without), Red was dead last. However, in recent years, the community’s narrative has been that Red has surpassed White in power level. I’d argue that these facts are not inconsistent, because the power rankings above do not take into account the power level of commanders. If you look at the monored commanders on EDHREC, 8 of the top 10 were printed in the last 7 years. In contrast, that’s true of only 6 of the top 10 monowhite commanders. I think this is an indicator that Wizards has printed better (or at the very least, more interesting) monored commanders than monowhite commanders in the last 7 years.

Another interesting point that supports the idea that monored has gotten more good commanders than white lately is that people don’t like running red cards, yet monored commanders are more popular than monowhite commanders. If you tally up the numbers of copies of the top 100 white cards being run in Commander, you get 859,692 cards-- over 250,000 more than Red’s top 100, which total to 610,187 cards. However, if you total the number of decks for all monowhite commanders, you get 7,850, thousands less than the monored commanders, which total to 11,716.

So the actual numbers of cards being run in the maindeck favors the idea that white is better than red, but people’s perceptions are skewed by some real sick legends in monored.

Counts of Monocolor Decks

White: 7,850

Blue: 11,061

Black: 11,241

Red: 11,716

Green: 11,235

Counts of Top 100 Cards

White: 859,692 cards

Blue: 1,175,579 cards

Black: 991,569 cards

Red: 610,187 cards

Green: 1,327,266 cards

Does this argument implicitly over-emphasize control with a combo finish?

I think the constraints of the format makes it so that control decks with a combo finish are more likely to win, and this argument just builds off of that premise. If the starting life total was lowered, the definition of what constitutes a good card would change and maybe more aggressive cards would become more generally useful. 

How does the cost of cards impact color balance? 

The fewer redundant effects there are, the more high prices handicap colors. There are a lot of replacements for cards like Imperial Seal and Grim Tutor, so Black doesn’t feel the pain of their outrageous price too much. In contrast, there is only one Craterhoof and only one Expropriate and the number of copies printed of those mythic rare cards has not kept pace with demand. This is a significant handicap on Green, since it can’t effectively make use of its tutor suite if you can’t afford the one copy of Hoof to tutor for.

Assuming the assumptions we’ve made about color balance are correct, how can White and Red shore up their apparent weakness, especially if Wizards is not keen on printing more tutors?

Well, Wizards can put a band-aid over White’s weaknesses by printing good commanders, in the same way that they’ve hidden Red’s fundamental flaws by giving it some busted commanders.

Printing redundant copies of effects White can already do will definitely help the color out; Generous Gift is a good start on this path.

However, these ideas won’t fundamentally solve the color’s problems. Not being able to increase its cards, increase its mana, increase the quality of its resources, or end the game are massive drawbacks, and without addressing at least some of these problems, White is always going to be fighting a losing battle.

When we did our episode on 8-mana game enders, we suggested that maybe White could get effects that draw the game, a la Divine Intervention, as a way to end the game that felt flavorful for White. The problem with that sort of effect is that it might feel a bit anticlimactic; at least with Craterhoof and Insurrection, there’s a visceral, Timmy-pleasing moment of attacking for a billion, and even Exsanguinate lets you cackle to yourself while you calculate exactly how much life you just gained. An 8-mana sorcery that says the game is a draw is not exactly an epic conclusion to an hour-long game.

A more appealing alternative might be to give White more overrun effects. As the color that gets the most creatures, it’s a little strange that White’s mass pump appears to cap out at +2/+2, while Green’s skyrockets off the graph.

From Maro’s Mechanical color pie article: 

+N/+N to your team 

Primary: white

Secondary: green 

White is the color most likely to pump its team, most often with +1/+1, but it will occasionally go up to +2/+2. Green's team pump starts at +3/+3 and often also adds trample. 

This seems like a pretty arbitrary rule and making this change would be pretty easy. Getting access to Craterhoof levels of mass pump will give White a way to turn all its value weenies, hate bears, and 1/1 tokens into a lethal fighting force.

As for Red, I would like to see more rituals (Dockside Extortionist was a great start!) to better enable its combo potential and help it sneak in wins before it runs out of resources. I think Red can get away with not having great answers or great ways to win a war of attrition if Wizards helps it become more explosive.

Wrapping Up

I know there’s a lot that’s debatable about what cards qualify as “good enough” to count towards a critical mass of effects but I’d love your input to strengthen the ideas here. Thanks for reading!

[mechagalaxy]

Sten Hugo Hiller - 627184: (N-Mech): SPECTRE

(By Sten Hugo Hiller - 627184)

Mech review

Todays (N-Mech): SPECTRE

After quite a bit of rumors, sightings, and for some lucky Commanders actual finds, the newest Mech have finally found its way to the shops.

The Spectre is, like its cousin the Cyberdon, a quad 110 tonner. While the form is quite similar, the Mechs do function quite differently as the mission parameters are different.

For those who did not find it out in the wide Galaxy doing missions, it is now avialiable for purchase.

Provided you have a licence of at least 167 and can put on the table 28K Ferrite, 20.5K Bioptics and 115 Niodes this Mech can be yours.

For that outlay you get a Mech having these bareboned stats:

.........…..Speed: -30

.........…….Slow: (5)

............…..Fork: 5%

.........…..Splash: 5%

...…...Wide Fork: 6%

Missile Damage: +20%

It also have 14 weapons already mounted:

3x Pride Swarm

2x Quatour missiles

2x Amnesia Torpedo

4x Retribution

3x Large Fury

Except for the speed handicap it ,like most really big Mechs start out with, this is a quite attractive package.

But to make it ready for peak performance, one need to pour in quite a bit of resorces for the needed 299 upgrades.

-Except, if you get it now and start upgrading really quick, you can cut upgrade cost and time by a significant margin.

The Craftsmen have announced that all Spectres will get two additional upgrades FOR FREE for each it have already received, a week after they were made available.

(Those upgrades is however limited by the owning Commanders licence, no Mechs will be upgraded past it.)

However the Spectre gets upgraded, when it is fully developed it will have these stats:

......…..Speed: -3

......…..Dodge: 8

...…..Precision: 13

.........…...Slow: (27)

.........…….Fork: 30%

......……Splash: 30%

…….Wide Fork: 22%

Missile Damage: 90%

………….Shield: (315)

…..….Ice Shield: 10%

….....Fire Shield: 10%

…...Laser Shield: 10%

.....Missile Shield: 10%

..Projectile Shield: 10%

At that time it will also have gotten room for an additional 100 weaponmounts and:

6 Cockpits

8 Chasis

8 Engines

7 Shields

There is still not much in the way of equipment available when it comes to these 110 ton behemoths, but even the limited selection available lets us put together two packages. One using standard (Crystal) gear, and one using elite (Niode) gear.

As always, to win a battle one must be able to hit the opponents. Here is the Spectre`s biggest problem, as the AI do not have room for more than a half dozen Modules.

But by grabbing those who give the highest boost to Precision, we will at least get the best firing solutions available.

That means we get six of the Nanobioptic Gloves (Precision +12, 6% Double Damage, Shield (2) and 2% Projectile vulnerability)

and Six of the 8-Shifter (Precision +5 and 3% of Double Damage)

Of course, even if the targeting solutions are the best, one still need to get some metal on the targets as soon as possible. To bolster this ability, the highest speed attainable is wanted.

For the standard package that means we use the MK 300 (Speed +5, Auto-Repair (1) and 2% Fire vulnerability)

We order eight of them

For the elite package we order eight of the Volcanic Core

(Speed +10, Fire Damage +6%, Auto Repair (1) and 3% Splash)

Survival on the Battlefield can be measured in seconds, or days. One of the details who determines which is whether opponents can land any blows on you.

To make this as hard for said opponents as possible, a Dodge crowding the current workable limit (of 70) is preferred.

For the standard package we have no real choice. The Cooling Turbines have the better Dodge and 8 are ordered. (Dodge +6, 3% Triple Damage, and 4% vulnerability to both Fire and Missiles)

The elite package gives us a broader choice. Question is whether we in addition to the Dodge want the Speed boost and multiple from the Inertial Dampening (Dodge +10, Triple Damage +5%, Speed +2, Laser Damage +3 and Projectile Vulnerability 4%) or the additional shielding from the Reforged Battleplate (Dodge +11, Shield (20 and Projectile Shield 10%)

Here the offensive qualities seem better and we get 8 of the Inertial Dampening.

What remains is to put on some Shields. Firstly we will try to eliminate weaknesses and then we try to get as good a shielding as we might.

For the standard package we get two each of the Enigma Syndicate and the Immolation Isolation and one each of the Celestial Mirror, Atomic De-Icer and Heavy Buckler.

For the elite package we choose mostly from the Single 105-110 ton Shields as they give a better percentage protection. One each of Refraction Shield, Swarm Plating, Thermal Plating, Heating Plates and Titanic Armor. In addition we pick one Savu Phi and one Algrid Phi for secondary shielding. As these Mechs are intended for the front line, the lack of Trample Shields is bearable.

This gives the finished models these stats (standard..elite)

...….…..Speed: 37(51).....93(124)

…..…..Dodge: ..56...…....88

...…..Precision: ..43...…...85

.....2x Damage: 18%......36%

…..3x Damage: 24%......40%

.........…...Slow: (27)…....(27)

.........…….Fork: 30%......30%

......……Splash: 30%......54%

…….Wide Fork: 22%......22%

...Fire Damage: ...0...…...48%

.Laser Damage: ...0...…..24%

Missile Damage: 90%......90%

………….Shield: (315).....(737)

…..….Ice Shield: 19%......42%

….....Fire Shield: ..4%......-30%

…...Laser Shield: 25%......30%

.....Missile Shield: 14%......35%

..Projectile Shield: 17%.......2%

……..Fork Shield: 0...….....23%

…..Splash Shield: 0...….....34%

.Wide Fork Shield: 0...….....49%

...…..Auto-Repair: (8)…….…(8)

(Parenthetical values for speed is including the Speed boosts we currently have)

The outlay for the packages are (in addition to loooots of Ferrite and Bioptics) 2000 Crystal or 1698 Niodes.

Both Mechs do suffer from somewhat poor targeting solutions, and against opponent s having top Dodge, especially the Crystal variant will be at a severe disadvantage.

However.

Unlike most of the 110 tonners, the Spectre do get all the Equipment slots fairly early, and except for one Shield, (arrives at lvl 179) the last of them is developed already after the 163rd upgrade.

While there still is room for improvement, the Spectre can be expected to do a good job already at that time, -clearly outperforming the other 110 tonners at the same stage of development.

As a Missile Mech, it is of course interesting to know if it is an improvement over the reigning champion,

-the Humbaba.

We equip a Humbaba with the following:

4x Frosty the AI + 3x Enkidu Panel

4x Lateral Stabilizer + 3x Cybernetic Sinews

8x Tri-Turbines

Shields do not matter that much, For this comparison, we give it one each of the 95-100 ton Single Shields in the Epsilon series.

Comparing the Mechs at lvl 300 we see these core stats

…………….......Spectre.....Humbaba

............Armor:....4160...…...3510

....…Weapons:......114...…….112

...….....Speed: ..93(124)….106(132)

...…..Precision:..85...……...…100

......…….Dodge:.88...………....76

......…...Crit-Kill:...0......………...7%

......……Freeze:...0...…………100%

......………Slow:..(27)...………..(20)

…1.5x Damage: ...0...………….10%

...…2x Damage: ..36%...………45%

...…3x Damage:..40%...……….72%

Missile Damage:.90%...……….122%

......…...…..Fork:..30%...……….28%

......…….Splash:..54%...………..15%

...……..Trample:.....0...………….24%

...…..Wide Fork..22%...………….0

.........…...Shield:.(737)………….(320)

...….Auto-Repair:..(8)…………….(4)

The Humbaba is a bit faster and will hit on 19 of 20 shots against a top protected opponent while the Spectre will hit only 17 times.

Both will slow an opponent significantly, but in addition the Humbaba should Freeze them most of the time.

The Humbaba also have better total multiples and dishes out more Missile damage.

The Spectre do have better multitarget capabilities, have a stronger general Shield, and better AR, while the Humbaba have a small chance of criting opponents.

I have to say, until better Equipment becomes available, it looks like the Humbaba still is the reigning champion.

[marquitaburns5-blog]

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