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davidoespailla · 6 years

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The Housing Slowdown Is Here—and These 10 Cities Are Getting Hit Hardest

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Is the party really over?

Over the last decade, the seemingly unstoppable growth of the American housing market has created a bonanza for sellers, a cutthroat environment for buyers, and an endless source of fascination for just about everyone else.

It seemed to be an economic perpetual-motion machine. Could home prices in top markets really just keep going up and up … and up?

Well, no, actually. In the last few months, the real estate market has actually begun slowing down—including in some of the big cities that have been leading the go-go post-recession housing boom.

What does it all mean?

We decided to explore beyond the alarmist headlines to find the 10 metropolitan areas* that are seeing the biggest shifts—and why.

To be clear, prices aren’t always dropping in these places, which are predominantly located on the West Coast. Mostly, they’re decelerating, coming back down to earth. So bargain hunters can put their wallets away.

But in addition to a substantial increase in the number of home listings with price reductions, we found other potentially game-changing signs of market adjustments, including a surge in the amount of inventory for sale and the number of days on the market.

Here are the brass tacks: List prices only rose 7.3% nationally year-over-year in October.

While that’s certainly higher than most raises in compensation, inflation, and buyers’ comfort levels, it’s still less than the 10% annual hike the year before and the 8.2% jump the year before that.

Focus on the small victories, buyers! These markdowns can lead to more choices for those looking to purchase a home. And sellers, you’re still making bank.

Metros seeing the biggest slowdowns

Tony Frenzel

“There’s a rebalancing that needs to happen,” says Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac. “Prices have risen so high in some of these markets that it’s very tough from an affordability perspective [for buyers]. … It’s not surprising to me that we’re seeing a little bit of a leveling off.”

So stash the B-word, at least for now: The dreaded Housing Bubble isn’t poised to pop. There are simply more homes for sale now and fewer buyers vying for them. In other words, the market is returning to some semblance of reality.

“Are we going off the cliff?” says Honolulu-area real estate broker George Krischke of Hawaii Living. “I don’t have a crystal ball, but I don’t think so. … It’s a temporary slowdown and may be a plateau.”

To come up with our rankings of the real estate markets that are slowing down the most, we looked at annual price, inventory, days on market, and price reduction changes from October 2017 to 2018 in our realtor.com® listings in the 100 largest metros.

Let’s take a look:

Market Median list price Change in list price* Change in inventory* Listings with price reductions* 1. Stockton, CA $397,050 +3.4% +34.7 +299.2% 2. San Jose, CA $1,099,050 -0.1% +129.9% +110.6% 3. San Francisco, CA $899,050 0.0% +41.7% +56.3% 4. Nashville, TN $350,045 -2.5% +32.0% +22.5% 5. San Diego, CA $659,400 +1.4% +41.1% +28.5% 6. Oxnard, CA $685,000 -2.1% +15.0% +31.4% 7. Honolulu, HI $692,550 -0.4% +21.5% +25.0% 8. Dallas, TX $335,050 -1.4% +15.5% +14.0% 9. Seattle, WA $555,050 +12.1% +59.8% +36.2% 10. Portland, OR $455,050 +1.1% +22.1% +11.8% *Year-over-year changes between October 2017 to October 2018 Source: realtor.com listing data

So why are these housing markets slowing down?

1. Mortgage rate increases are sidelining buyers

Unless buyers are paying all cash for their digs—not a likely scenario for most of us ordinary humans—they are probably smarting from rising mortgage interest rates. That’s because even the smallest rate hikes of just fractions of a percentage point can add hundreds of dollars to monthly mortgage payments. Over the life of a 30-year loan, it can add tens of thousands of dollars.

Here’s what’s going on: Mortgage interest rates went up from 3.90% a year ago to 4.81% as of last week. That seemingly small 0.91% increase made mortgage payments $127 a month more expensive on median-priced homes of $295,000. It adds extra payments totaling $45,540 over the life of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, assuming that the buyers put 20% down. And of course, the more expensive the property, the more new homeowners will be forking over.

This is having an impact, real estate experts say. These increases are forcing some buyers to purchase cheaper, smaller homes and fixer-uppers in less sought-after locales. And it’s led many aspiring homeowners to go into standby mode—waiting to see whether prices will drop to make the whole thing more financially viable. With less competition come fewer bidding wars, and more inventory that isn’t being snatched up within an hour of the “For Sale” sign going up in the front yard.

Borrowers are facing a little “sticker shock,” says Julie Aragon, a mortgage broker at Julie Aragon Lending Team in Santa Monica, CA, who works with buyers from San Diego, No. 5 on our list, and Oxnard, CA, No. 6. “They just don’t realize how much [rates] went up. Even an eighth to a quarter of a percentage point increase is going to make a big impact.”

That’s particularly true in high-priced areas like the Southern California city of San Diego, where the median price of $659,400 is more than double the national figure.

“I’ve seen people lose $50,000 in purchasing power,” Aragon says. And that’s giving buyers pause.

Higher rates are also stymieing move-up buyers who want to trade their starter homes for larger, nicer homes, but are reluctant to give up their existing low mortgage rates to do so, says Ted Wilson of Residential Strategies, a housing consultant based in the Dallas area.

The reality is that rates are still low compared to previous decades, when double-digit rates weren’t uncommon.

“Folks have been used to a world of dirt-cheap mortgage rates,” says Freddie Mac’s Kiefer. “We’re moving to a world where rates are more in line with what we’d expect to see over the long term.”

2. Prices just got too damn high

Fact is, prices can’t increase at record levels forever. And we may have finally hit an inflection point in many bellwether markets.

“To some degree, the markets that went up the most and the fastest just pushed too hard [in prices],” says Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for Silicon Valley and the Bay Area at the real estate company Compass. “Over the summer, it was like something cracked, and people said ‘I can’t do this anymore.'”

In Silicon Valley’s San Jose metro area, No. 2 in our rankings, prices shot up a whopping 22.2% from 2016 to 2017. And this was already one of the nation’s most expensive places to live. But even hefty tech salaries can only stretch so far.

Add in those higher mortgage rates, and “that’s a whole lot more money that someone is going to have to spend to pay their monthly mortgage on a 1,500-square-foot, three-bedroom, two-bathroom ranch house that suddenly costs $2 million,” says Carlisle.

So is it any big surprise that about 36.8% of San Jose-area sellers have had to slash prices on their homes in the last year?

President Donald Trump‘s tax changes have also hit Silicon Valley and the Bay Area hard. (San Francisco comes in at No. 3 on our list.) Homeowners can now only deduct from their taxes mortgage interest on loans of up to $750,000, down from $1 million. This isn’t just a rich person’s problem—it’s hard to find even a modest starter home for less than $1 million in this region.

Then add in a new $10,000 cap on property and either sales or income taxes. Suddenly, owning a home is a whole lot more expensive.

The entire West Coast, long the growth capital of the United States, is showing signs of being overheated. “For everyone, there’s a maximum to what they can pay,” says Annie Radecki, senior manager at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, who covers Seattle and Portland.

3. Sellers want to cash in while they can—leading to more homes for sale

More and more homeowners, fearing that the real estate market has reached its peak, are champing at the bit to sell. And that has led to a relative glut of available homes—more than even the hottest markets can easily absorb.

“There’s a perception [among owners] that the market has had a good run and maybe it’s time to cash in,” says Honolulu broker Krischke. “The good times have to end.”

In Stockton, CA, which came in first in our slowdown rankings, price drops are common because sellers shot too high, says local agent Jerry Patterson of Cornerstone Real Estate Group. This is a city that has long been plagued by crime and poverty. But its location, about an hour and a half northeast of Silicon Valley and close to the vineyards in Lodi, CA, gave it a boost in recent years, with annual prices rising 8.2% last year and 14.3% in the prior year.

But with more homes for sale and less competition for them, “buyers are now in a bit more of a power position,” Patterson says. “[They’re] able to flex their muscles a little bit more.”

And sellers are learning the hard way that the danger of pricing their homes too high is that they can wind up stagnating on the market. “They’re entering what we call the ‘sludge,'” says Nashville real estate broker Brian Copeland, of Doorbell Real Estate. “There’s nothing wrong with their house. But that price becomes a stigma.”

4. New construction booms benefit buyers—but slow down sales

New construction in certain markets has given buyers more options—but developers may have overshot their goals, often to accommodate corporate growth. Just look at Nashville, TN, No. 4 on our list, where a new Amazon center is slated for location, and Dallas, No. 8, which has added more than 500,000 jobs in the last decade. About a third of Nashville-area home listings on realtor.com® and a quarter of Dallas-area listings are for brand-new homes.

In Dallas, “There’s more inventory than there is demand,” says Dallas-area Realtor Dee Evans of Ebby Halliday Realtors. But she’s beginning to see the pace of new construction slowing, and those extra units are being absorbed by buyers. “Hopefully, the builders will be smart about putting less new stuff up.”

* A metropolitan statistical area is a designation that includes the urban core of a city and the surrounding smaller towns and cities.

* Lance Lambert ran the data analysis on which this story is based.

The post The Housing Slowdown Is Here—and These 10 Cities Are Getting Hit Hardest appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com®.

The Housing Slowdown Is Here—and These 10 Cities Are Getting Hit Hardest

#TRUSTED LOCAL REALTOR #The Housing Slowdown Is Here—and These 10 Cities Are Getting Hit Hardest

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padxchange-blog · 6 years

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704 Owens River, Oxnard, CA 93036 Buy your next home online at www.padx.com . Sqft 2024 - Bed 4 - Bath 2 - Property Type Single Family Residence . Details Welcome to River Park and a unique lifestyle with shops, restaurants, theatres and schools within walking distance! The Kitchen features Whirlpool stainlessbuilt-in appliances and ''Giallo Santo'' granite countertops.... (more details at www.padx.com) . Listing provided courtesy of Anne Williamson at Coldwell Banker Property Shoppe Is there an issue with this listing? Contact us at [email protected] to make listing corrections. Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of 2018-09-13T12:10:16.000Z and /or other sources. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information. . @padxchange BRE 01441622 #padx #padxchange #realtor #realestatetech #buyonline #ventura #venturarealestate #oxnard #oxnardrealestate #home #house #realestateagent #interiordesign #socal (at Oxnard, California) https://www.instagram.com/p/BnrbNdQniJk/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=pat17dxb8liv

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gillespialfredoe01806ld · 6 years

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Cities Where People Own Their Homes the Longest—and Those Where They Pack Up Fast

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Should I stay or should I go? For many homeowners, that’s the question.

Conventional wisdom strongly dictates that homeowners should live in their place for at least five years if they want to walk away with a legit return on their investment—or sometimes the shirts on their backs. But in an era when even “honesty is the best policy” is a matter of debate, aphorisms aren’t what they used to be. In some parts of the U.S., homeowners seem afflicted with wanderlust—pulling up roots, moving early and often. But in others, they’re more apt to stay in their cherished homes for decades.

The realtor.com® data team identified the housing markets where folks are holding onto their residences the longest—and where they’re putting their properties back on the market in record time.

Generally, for the past decade or so, more homeowners have been staying in their residences longer, according to the National Association of Realtors®. They went from living at the same address for a median six years in 2008 to a median 10 beginning in 2014. That’s partly because so many folks found themselves unexpectedly underwater on their mortgages when the housing bubble burst. (This figure includes only primary residences whereas our analysis includes home flips, rental properties, and vacation homes, which tend to be held for fewer years.)

“I’m seeing people bottled up in their homes because they have nowhere to move to,” says Dowell Myers, an urban planning and demography professor at the University of Southern California, in Los Angeles. “We have burgeoning demand and an insufficient supply of homes for sale, which creates gridlock.”

On the flip side, “higher rates of construction will stimulate more turnover” in many markets as there are more homes to choose from, he continues. Some of “the markets where people had been underwater following the Great Recession, now have equity for the first time. You may have a surge in sellers as people try to act on their long-delayed plans to move on.”

In some markets, lots of churn is good for both buyers and sellers. It means there are more properties for would-be homeowners to choose from. And in the best-case scenario, home appreciation is so strong that sellers can walk away early—and still make a profit.

To find where owners are staying put for the longest and shortest periods of time, we looked at homes that sold over the past 12 months in the 100 largest metros. (Metros include the main city and the suburbs surrounding it.) We compared those sales with their previous ones going back as far as 2000, enabling us to calculate the average number of months that homes were owned between sales. We included only one metro per state to ensure geographic diversity.

Now let’s go the places where homeowners are holding on tight.

Metros where homeowners are staying the longest 1. El Paso, TX

Average time between sales: 99 months Median home list price: $170,000

Located along the U.S.-Mexico border, El Paso has an abundance of Texas charm and great eats. But many residents of this border town, where most of the employment comes from government jobs and the oil and gas industry, are struggling. The median household income here is just $43,222—33.3% less than national levels..

“Lower wages mean homeowners are less likely to sell and try to trade up,” says Tom Torres, a real estate agent at Clear View Realty in El Paso. The folks who do sell are often nearing retirement and looking to downsize, he says.

El Paso might not have lots of deep-pocketed homebuyers or megamansions, but the three-bedroom, two-bath homes on the market here are usually within buyers’ budget. In fact, realtor.com named El Paso one of America’s middle-class meccas earlier this year, with 69% of the homes here being within reach of middle-income buyers.

2. Albuquerque, NM

Average time between sales: 98 months Median home list price: $259,500

The largest city in New Mexico, Albuquerque is packed with the pueblo homes so common throughout the Southwest. These two-story abodes have flat roofs and walls that are good for staying cool during the region’s hot summer. Residents here don’t seem to have an overwhelming desire to trade up to McMansions.

“There’s a strong cultural bent to stay to put,” says Ben Levine, an associate broker at Re/Max Select in Albuquerque. He contends that Albuquerque is a decidedly down-to-earth, family-oriented community. “People here are not so driven to own luxury cars and designer clothes.”

Albuquerque has a mix of lifelong residents and retirees who moved here because of the mild winters, dry heat, and affordable home prices. While homes here aren’t as cheap as those in El Paso, they’re still well under the $299,000 national median price.

Just because folks like to stay where they are doesn’t mean there aren’t properties for sale. Homes sell the fastest near downtown, in areas such as Nob Hill, a historic neighborhood with nightlife, shopping, and restaurants. This two-bedroom, pueblo-style home built in 1951 in Nob Hill is on the market for $149,000.

3. Oxnard, CA

Average time between sales: 97 months Median home list price: $700,000

On one side of Oxnard, which sits along the Pacific Ocean on the coast, is Los Angeles, where the median home cost is a whopping $762,600. But the other side is even more unaffordable, with median prices in Santa Barbara hitting a nosebleed-inducing $1.4 million. That may be why folks hoping to save a few bucks by living in Oxnard aren’t looking to go anywhere.

“A million-dollar home [in Santa Barbara] costs $500,000 in Oxnard,” says Julia Otero, a local real estate agent at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties. “It’s its little own world, and you don’t have to get out of Oxnard for beaches, shopping, or a night out.”

Most of the sellers Otero works with have been in their homes for about a decade and are moving to retire outside of the city. Meanwhile, most of her buyers are purchasing their first homes, which they hope to live in for years to come.

4. Greensboro, NC

Average time between sales: 97 months Median home list price: $215,100

Many Greensboro residents may dream of moving into a new home—but fast-rising prices and a lack of homes on the market are keeping many of them right where they are. Median list prices are up 11.1% in the past year alone. That’s not an easy increase to stomach for those looking to trade up or down.

“If there’s not a reason to move, what are you going to get in this frenzy?” asks local real estate agent D.J. McGarrigan of Allen Tate Realtors. “A lot of people are doing renovations to their house … because it’s so hard to replace what you’ve got.”

Those who are selling—particularly anything under $400,000 in a good school district—are in for a windfall. Just recently, he showed a four-bedroom home in a nice area 40 times and received eight offers. It’s now selling for well over its $220,000 list price.

But then what? “In order to replace what you have, you’re going to have a hard time finding something new,” McGarrigan warns.

5. Philadelphia, PA

Average time between sales: 96 months Median home list price: $270,000

The City of Brotherly Love is filled with neighborhoods where folks know everyone and wouldn’t dream of leaving their community behind. Many of these areas are packed with brick,100-year-old row homes often passed down from generation to generation.

“There aren’t lots of people moving from neighborhood to neighborhood,” says Liz Lutz, a real estate agent at Re/Max One Realty in Philadelphia. They’re “so tied into their community they can’t imagine being anywhere else.”

Another reason more folks are staying put is some of the schools in the city have been improving. That puts less pressure on families to move into the suburbs.

The rest of the top 10 metros where homeowners are staying the longest are Cleveland (95 months), at sixth, followed by Seattle (94 months); Baltimore (93 months); Rochester, NY (93 months); and Jacksonville, FL (92 months).

Got it? Now let’s look at U.S. cities with the most peripatetic homeowners.

Metros where homeowners are staying the least amount of time 1. Providence, RI

Average time between sales: 33 months Median home list price: $350,000

The reason for the constant churn in Providence is simple: It’s filled with here-today-gone-tomorrow college students—and the teaching professionals who mold ’em. The state capital is home to Brown University, Rhode Island School of Design, and Johnson & Wales University among others. The savviest of students, recent grads, and their families are buying homes for a few years and then putting them on the market for a quick profit.

“We have a lot of transient professors from Brown and Johnson & Wales that will only stay for a year or two,” says Joshua Deaner, real estate broker and owner of the Rhode Guide Real Estate Co. in Providence. “I’ve seen one house that has sold three times in 10 years. It’s not haunted or anything—it’s just that academics tend to like similar things. The houses go from one professor to another.”

Single-family homes priced under $350,000 sell fast. And homes on the east side of town, where they tend to be nicer and larger, are even more in-demand, Deaner says.

But the short buy-sell time frame isn’t stopping local homeowners from walking away with some serious money. In fact, earlier this month the realtor.com data team found that home sellers in the past year in Providence made a roughly 11% return on their initial investment.

2. Cape Coral, FL

Average time between sales: 35 months Median home list price: $299,800

Located two hours south of Tampa Bay along the Florida Gulf Coast, Cape Coral is a hotbed for retirees, snowbirds, and vacationers. And they’re constantly on the move.

“We are a vacation community with lots of second homes,” says Mike Lombardo, a broker in Cape Coral. A standard second home here is this three-bedroom, two-bath ranch in a private cul-de-sac for $209,900. “People don’t hold those as long as primary residences.”

Like many other parts of Florida, Cape Coral was hit hard by the housing crash, with a deluge of foreclosures and plummeting home prices. Those who bought when the market was low, around 2011 and 2012, are realizing they now have quite a bit of equity in their abodes. And many are choosing to cash out.

3. Greenville, SC

Average time between sales: 36 months Median home list price: $200,000

Government officials and business leaders in Greenville have worked hard to sell the region as a go-to spot for young families. With low taxes, a business-friendly environment, and a charming downtown with a damn fine whiskey distillery and boutiques oozing Southern charm, Ameco, Michelin, and General Electric all have established a big presence there.

Those improvements and good salaries have brought lots of new residents into the area. (The population of just Greenville County swelled 12.3% from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.) Some stay for a few years before moving to other cities in the South, such as Atlanta. Others simply keep trading up as they earn more money.

“They are here for three or four years. But to move up the ladder, they take a new job or assignment in a different city,” says Melissa Morrell, a local real estate agent at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices.

4. New Orleans, LA

Average time between sales: 44 months Median home list price: $286,100

Moving to NOLA may make your friends jealous, particularly come Mardi Gras. The region is constantly attracting new residents, particularly younger folks who dream of debauched strolls down Bourbon Street.

“Most folks move here simply for a lifestyle change,” says Michelle LaBanca, a real estate agent at French Quarter Realty. “They’ll stay for a few years hoping to get the New Orleans experience and then move on to something new.”

(The metro is also a college town, home to Tulane University, Loyola University, and Xavier University of Louisiana, among others, which contributes to the churn.)

First-time buyers often pick up duplexes in parts of New Orleans like Mid-City, a hip neighborhood filled with restaurants and bars, where they run about $300,000, LaBanca says. They own these homes for a few years and then upgrade into something bigger.

“Some neighborhoods have lower inventory but a really high demand,” LaBanca says. “So people will buy and sell two or three years later just to make a profit.”

5. Madison, WI

Average time between sales: 47 months Median home list price: $310,000

Madison is another big college town, centered on the University of Wisconsin-Madison and its 44,000 students.

“Parents will buy two units and income properties for their kids to live in while they’re at UW,” says Sara Alvarado, owner of Alvarado Real Estate Group. “After their kids graduate, they’ll either sell the units or rent them out.”

In addition, she sees many folks who come to the area for work only to be relocated by their employers a few years later. “That can happen quickly, and they’re forced to sell,” Alvarado says.

Single-family homes in the suburbs are the hottest segment of the market. This three-bedroom home with granite countertops and a big backyard in nearby Waunakee is going for $324,900. And because they’re so in-demand, many of these abodes can fetch as many as 15 offers, Alvarado says.

The rest of the top 10 metros where homeowners stay the least amount of time are Grand Rapids, MI (51 months), at sixth, followed by Knoxville, TN (54 months); Boston (57 months); Omaha, NE (66 months); and Augusta, GA (66 months.

Sources: realtor.com and Corelogic

Allison Underhill and Clare Trapasso contributed to this report.

The post Cities Where People Own Their Homes the Longest—and Those Where They Pack Up Fast appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com®.

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ivegotnothin · 6 years

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premieragentnetwork · 5 years

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dionsantoni-blog · 5 years

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the805closer · 7 years

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ericacalirealtor · 6 years

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🚩🚩🚩Back on the Market and Accepting Offers!!🚩🚩🚩 📍3664 Leeward Way Oxnard, CA 93035 4 Bed 2 bath 1,542 Sq Ft. Contact me for more info and pictures! Come see this 4 bedroom Beauty! Erica Rangel DRE Lic.#02040593 (805)708-4108📞☎📲 Keller Williams Realty #HomesByErica #ListWithErica #BuyWithErica #VenturaCountyHomes #VenturaCounty #OxnardCA #SouthOxnard #SaviersRd #BusinessOpportunity #OxnardCollege #Investment #Investment #SellVenturaCounty#EricaCaliRealtor #TheCollectionatRiverPark #CamarilloOutlets #NorthOxnard #NorthOxnardWarriors #RealEstate #ForSale #BackonTheMarket (at Erica Rangel Realtor) https://www.instagram.com/p/BspKJGXgmTi/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=m3aelfqkp0g

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real-estate-pros · 7 years

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