#RaM S5 finale

[tevantarlos]

Things I'm Bitter About When It Comes to The Tribe:

Alice and Ellie were never reunited. We saw in season 5 that Alice was alive, along with KC and The Guardian and on the island of the Deleted. I was really hoping they would be reunited in the season/series finale, but no. Fans were left forever hanging.

Bray never got to know or raise his son. I don't give a shit about Amber or Bramber, but I liked Bray's character, and feel like he got screwed.

We never got a full resolution with Tai-San. We saw her as a Techno in S4, I think, or early S5, and then she disappeared. Mega and Ram made comments/dropped hints that she was/might still be alive on the island of the Deleted.

Cloe and Ved were sent to the island of the Deleted and Ram, Mega, and Jay claimed they were all dead. We never got to find out if that was true. The actors were fired because they were dating and tptb didn't like that, so they canned them.

We never fully found out if Danni was dead, until an interview with Raymond Thompson in 2020, where he was asked by a fan if she was, and he said he couldn't say anything because it would spoil the next book. We need a confirmation either way.

[othsource]

Update

Hi everyone 💕😍🥰 I hope you're all doing really good!!

It's been 2 weeks since I've made any gifs and there are two reasons for that. I'm not 100% sure if anyone cares but I figured, in the off chance that someone is wondering where I've gone after consistently posting for over a year, I should update you guys.

I use a laptop for everything I do and it is really not that great. I live with my husband and our two best friends and the household basically told me that my laptop is junk and I should really consider getting a desktop computer, or even building one myself. That was about a year ago. Financially, I just wasn't able to do it at the time.

So, I continued doing what I was doing how I was doing it. And, slowly but surely, I was growing a little burnt out. Partly because I'd been cranking out gifs on multiple accounts for over a year, and partly because I was doing it on a laptop that ran slowly and made the whole process more frustrating at times.

But I've been saving money really consistently for the last few months and I'm very excited to say that I have the funds to finally purchase myself a new desktop computer after yeeeears of suffering with a shit laptop 😂😍

For any tech-fans, I ended up going with a mini PC tower. I already have my laptop hooked up to a monitor with a wireless keyboard & mouse and that was my setup at my desk for the majority of the last year. So I'm really excited to get that laptop out of the way and replace it with a much smaller setup. I have a friend who's very into tech stuff and he recommended the Minisforum UM790 Pro with the 64GB RAM+1TB SSD which was below my budget and he said it should be able to do everything I want and more. I trust him quite a bit so I went for it. Now I'm just waiting for it to arrive in the mail.

I'm pretty confident that this will spark my inspiration to jump back into gif-making all around because things will (hopefully) go much smoother on this new setup.

But until it gets here and it gets all set up, I'm just gonna enjoy the rest of this little break. I've got a few more gifsets lined up to make for 5x12 and then I'll get started on 5x13, so on and so forth.

I will say that I hate that this all went down in the middle of s5 because s5 is one of my faaaavorite seasons but it is what it is 😂😂

Anyways, see you guys soon!! 💕

[sour-n-salty-citrus]

Just a throwaway idea for if RaM ever does have an episode even mentioning Rickorty:

Like, maybe after our Rick and Morty escape the collapsing citadel on Mortyburg, one of the Mortys in the town is trying to look for his Rick and goes hysterical with the possibility that his Rick might’ve been killed on the citadel. Eventually in the end, he does find his Rick (or his Rick just happened to find him), and it’s revealed that they’re actually in a healthy romantic relationship and other shenanigans ensue from there. Funny, I didn’t really ship Rickorty before, just liked consuming content of it, and now I’m providing content. Guess that’s what happens when you get bored, huh? You get creative, and share your thoughts. It’s fun!

Awwww, that's a super cute idea. It breaks my heart thinking about all the RnM pairs that were broken up during the s5 finale (whether romantically involved or not) ;-;. It would be so sweet to see a few find one another.

And honestly yeah, I can totally see shenanigans ensuing from there. Our RnM making comments about how gross it is, maybe- or maybe just Morty, and Rick says something like "jeez don't be so judgemental MoEUUUURGHrty" to which Morty is like

?????

???!!!!!

And yeah I feel that, anon! I just started out with reading an occasional ship fic here and there because i was desperate for any good rnm fic to read, and it spiralled from there ahah. I went from a mild interest in the ship to it becoming my ultimate OTP lolol.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts though! I love to hear it :D I'm glad you can have fun doing so, that's what fandom is all about!

[sometipsygnostalgic]

Did you know that before season 5 aired people were hotly debating if Adora remembers the childhood promise? People would argue for or against it and would even tag the crew. We didn't know until that scene in Save The Cat.

That is so cool!

I cant remember where she directly recalls the promise, but she still feels that way about Catra regardless. She is still fighting to live up to it. That's what Save the Cat is about.

Can i point out how amazing a screenwriter Stevenson is?

Like, Pen Ward in AT is recognisable for the episodes he storyboarder being 10 layers of weird, fucked, and heartwarming, just some of the best the show has to offer,

And in comparison we didn't even have to know it was Stevenson writing Promise, Remember, Save the Cat and those scenes in Heart part 2 for them to be the best damn eps in the show. Yes Im including Remember even if they arent proud - it is the best ep in season 3, which is already rammed with goodies.

The only eps among the remaining 48 I feel to live up to Stevenson's own would be "The Beacon", "Moment of Truth" (both ironically parallel eps), "Princess Scorpia" (yeah), "Corridors", and "Failsafe". (I low key think Destiny is a better season finale than Heart, but there are certain scenes in Heart part 2 which blow Destiny out the park.)

(Also shout out to s5 Launch. It's not the best ep but it's damn well one of the most important.)

[kittyprincessofcats]

She-Ra S5 E08 - Shot in the Dark

There might be spoilers for the rest of the season in this post!

I absolutely LOVE this episode, and at first, I couldn’t really put my finger on why I liked it that much. And then Noelle tweeted this:

And yeah, that’s what it boils down to. This is the first *happy* Catra episode since... basically since “Once Upon a Time in the Waste” - and back then, the happiness didn’t last long.

(I also just think that story of AJ being so worried about Catra and Noelle reassuring her with every script is so adorable. I love to see how much they all care about these characters.)

Now let’s get into the episode!

- “Why does space hate me so much?” Yeah Glimmer, as I’ve said before, your powers don’t work in space because otherwise things would be way too easy and this show would be over way too quickly.

- “So, your plan is to, what? Ram through an armada of ships?” “No! ...Maybe!” 😂 I love Adora.

- The way Catra’s hands are shaking when she tells Adora they’re going to get caught... oh, baby 😢. And how Adora suddenly looks so worried... gosh, these two.

- Catra and Adora playfully arguing over whether or not Catra ‘defeated’ them in the past is so cute. I love this kind of ‘former enemies’ bickering and it’s why I was so glad they didn’t wait until the very end of the show to redeem Catra.

Bow: “Adora, Catra’s right.”

[Everyone’s eyes go wide.]

Bow: ... “That felt weird to say.”

😂 Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Bring on all the ‘former enemies’ bickering, please!

- So, is this just because Wrong Hordak’s “brains were scrambled”, as Bow put it, or do all the clones randomly blurt out that Horde Prime has a weakness whenever they hear someone ask about it? I’m going to assume it’s the former. Also, the way he keeps blurting out more and then denying that Krytis exists is super funny.

- I like how they set Krytis up before with Catra having visions of it back in Taking Control - still pretty convenient that just hearing the name lets her make the connection, but I’ll take it. (Is it meant to be some lingering effect of being connected to the hivemind that she’s having visions of it again now, or is it just her remembering what she saw before?)

- I love the detail that Darla’s information on Krytis is locked and they need administrator clearance to access it. Shows again that the First Ones aren’t that different from Horde Prime - they were also ashamed of their failure to conquer Krytis and tried to hide the information on it.

- “In- In- In- Incorrect. It is located nowhere, because it does not exist, because Lord Prime destroyed it.” I honestly think this line should be a meme. When you want to hide something from someone (but you know it does exist), just quote that exact line (kind of like “There is no war in Ba Sing Se”). I once said it to my sisters when they asked about certain fanfics I wrote as a teenager. (“Nope, they are located nowhere, because they do not exist, because Lord Prime destroyed them.”)

- Changes in the opening: Micah, Spinnerella, Scorpia and Mermista are now standing mind-controlled around the Heart of Etheria in the villains’ shot. They’re also all missing from the final heroes’ card. In that final shot, Perfuma and Sea-Hawk both look sad now, and Netossa looks angry.

- Catra touching her neck when she sees the spire on Krytis... 😢. I’m here for the angst, but I also just need Catra to get lots of love and comfort after everything she’s been through.

- Can we talk about how absolutely ADORABLE her space suit is, though? Bow is absolutely right to coo over those ears. And when she tries to take it off with her foot? And Adora laughs about it? And Catra smiles when she sees her laugh? ❤️❤️❤️

- Wrong Hordak still denying that Krytis exists while currently being on Krytis is absolutely hilarious to me. It reminds me of flat-earthers or anti-vaxxers, or people who try to deny Covid exists (while others are currently dying from Covid) - not that any of those are funny, of course. I just mean that wrong Hordak nicely demonstrates how ridiculous they can sound.

- Catra calling out the Best Friend Squad on how dumb their plan is and then reacting with “Honestly, what did I expect?” is absolutely iconic. They really were missing her as the team’s braincell all along.

- Bow and Glimmer teasing Catra about her “first mission”, Catra grumbling that she’s going to kill Adora’s friends, Adora responding with a really calm “Please don’t” - everything about this is perfect. 🤣

- Also, small detail, but I love how Catra has a hard time walking in her spacesuit because she’s not used to wearing shoes.

- The remaining rebels looking around the destroyed camp is really sad. Frosta immediately trapping Castaspella in ice and checking her neck is great, though. That’s what they should have been doing all along. Why didn’t they also check Shadow Weaver’s neck, though? I know she’s intimidating and all, but there was no way of knowing if she’s chipped.

- “How did the rebellion lose so many of our finest members and yet we’re still stuck with you?” Castaspella’s asking the real questions! I like how literally no one in the rebellion likes Shadow Weaver. (Though honestly, I’m also glad she’s not chipped. Imagine how hard fighting a chipped Shadow Weaver would have been.)

- “But if you try anything, I won’t hesitate to strike you down.” Castaspella said ‘I won’t hesitate, b*tch!’

- Every single part of Wrong Hordak’s existential crisis (and Entrapta’s handling of it) is absolutely hilarious. I’m not going to quote all of it here, but pretty much every line of it is comedy gold. My favourite moment is probably “It seems Wrong Hordak has begun to question the meaning of life” (and everyone’s annoyed expressions at his crying) 😂😂. (On a more serious note, though: As much as it’s played for laughs, Wrong Hordak turning his entire worldview around in such a short amount of time is also pretty epic.)

- Catra just cutting through that door - damn, she’s strong! And I love Adora’s blush! (Yeah, the door was probably just an illusion, but my point still stands. She’s at least strong enough that it doesn’t seem completely weird that she'd be able to just cut through a door like that.)

- “You have an arrow that turns into a magnifying glass? I can’t believe we were losing to you guys.” 🤣🤣 Catra realizing the people she was fighting are actually idiots will never not be funny.

- It goes hand in hand with Bow realizing Catra is actually a cute kitty with an adorable sneeze. Good stuff. And the way her tail gets fluffy when she insists she’s not cute? D’awww. (Bow saying “The angrier you get, the cuter you are” reminded me of that scene in Steven Universe where Peridot loses her limb-enhances at the beginning of her redemption arc and Steven calls her cute and “an angry little slice of pie”.)

- Castaspella’s cape getting stuck in tree branches and the like is pretty funny, ngl. This is why Edna Mode said “No capes”.

- Shadow Weaver saying that her gifts are “far subtler” than mind-control is very fitting. Her thing is manipulation, after all. She doesn’t need to control people’s minds when she can just manipulate them and raise them in a way that’ll make them do what she wants. It’s scarier than mind-control in a way because it’s far more realistic. Mind-control doesn’t exist in real life, but manipulative parents (or just manipulative people) who will mess someone up emotionally? Very realistic.

- I like that you can tell that something’s off about Entrapta’s voice this time if you pay attention to it.

- “Seriously? How have you guys stayed alive this long?” Yup, the people you were fighting are idiots and you’re the braincell of the team now, Catra.

- I love the creepy music when Entrapta tells them it’s the first time they’ve talked since the last floor.

- Also, I love how Catra’s first instinct is to just launch herself at Melog, even though you could tell she was terrified just a moment earlier.

- I really like the moment where Glimmer realizes there’s magic on Krytis, especially since she doesn’t have her other powers right now.

- Melog bonds with Catra because they have the same sneeze ❤️❤️

- “Are you... are you petting the thing that’s been trying to kill us?” I love this whole moment 😹. I also love how Adora is so protective of Catra and immediately yells “Get away from her!” when Melog seems to get angry.

Catra: “I’m sorry. I got angry. It’s something I’m working on.”

Adora [with sparkling eyes]: “Aww, you are?”

Catra: “Yes! Now can you please...” [deep breath] “Yes. I am.”

I love everything about this. Catra genuinely working on her anger issues, Adora being so touched about it (remember back in Taking Control where she wished that Catra would ‘at least try’?), Catra having to hold back her anger because she realized Melog responds to emotions - perfect. ❤️😂👍

- Catra is so sweet when she calms Melog down. And the moment where they form their bond is really nice.

- So, can Catra understand Melog because of their bond, or because they’re both cats? I’m assuming it’s because of their bond?

- Melog’s backstory is really sad. But Adora offering to take them to Etheria is a really sweet scene.

- I like the parallel between the Best Friend Squad realizing that magic is Horde Prime’s weakness (and that the only planet he ever failed to conquer had wild magic) and Shadow Weaver telling Castaspella that the First Ones weakened Etheria’s magic and they have to set it free.

- “Stop me if I try to take the power for myself.” I’m not sure how I feel about that line. I like how SPOP has very much written Shadow Weaver as ambiguous so far. She’s not a good or nice person by any means, but is she at least on the side of the good guys and really trying to help now or is she still only after her own selfish goals? I very much did not want Shadow Weaver to get any sort of redemption or forgiveness, and I’ve always interpreted her as still being power-hungry. So, I have mixed feelings about this line. I like that it canonically acknowledges that Shadow Weaver is still tempted by power and might actually try to take the magic for herself, but asking Castaspella to stop her if she tries makes her look more selfless and like she’s taking precautions against it. (But then again, could Castaspella even stop her if she tried? I’m pretty sure Shadow Weaver is the stronger one of the two. So, you could still read this as Shadow Weaver being a master manipulator and only saying this so Castaspella will feel more inclined to trust her and go along with her plan - while knowing full-well that she could easily defeat Castaspella if it ever actually came down to it.)

Glimmer: “So, just to make sure I get it - We’re going to go running through a Horde blockade while relying on the magic of a creature we just met?”

Catra: “That about sums it up, yes.”

You know what this means - Catra’s a part of the Squad now!

- “Punch it, Darla!” I still love that the ship’s name is Darla. Also, all of their expressions when they fly through the blockade should be a “draw the squad” meme.

- Catra holding Adora’s hand and getting embarassed about it ❤️❤️ (while Adora is dumb and doesn’t even notice).

- I did not expect us to get a Glitra cheek kiss this season, but I’m not complaining! Also, Catra complaining while Glimmer and Bow are hugging her is such a cat thing; I love it.

- “We made it. We’re home.” Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think this is actually the first episode this season that ends on a happy / hopeful note and not on some kind of cliffhanger. And I really like that. This is where the “space arc” of season 5 offically comes to and end and I’m glad it has its own little happy ending. (And as much as I like the final episodes of the season, the space arc is still probably my favourite half of it.)

I love this episode, mainly because of what it means for Catra. She’s finally happy, she saved the day, she’s bonding with Bow and Glimmer and constantly flirting with Adora, and she has an amazing therapy cat now! I loved all the bickering between her and the others and how she’s starting to open up to them. Also, Wrong Hordak was absolutely hilarious in this episode and I commend Entrapta for having the patience to deal with his existential crisis. This was a really nice way to wrap the space arc up and bring the Squad back to Etheria.

[Previous episode]   [Next episode]

[youropinionsareirrelevant]

Never mind tomorrow...

(Isolation. April 2020).

AN APOLOGY...

The RAM on my faithful old s5 has finally reached the end of the road. It's tired. It can no longer keep speed with the constant torrent of analytical algorithms being thrown at it and 'heavy' platforms such as Tumblr cause the old girl to crash on a regular basis.

Because of this i have been unable for the past few days to scroll my dashboard. If I have missed your posts I'm really sorry. I have missed them and it is my loss. Thankfully I now have a new A40 and will be back to full speed again just as soon as I take delivery of a nano-sim. It's a sign of the times that I can't just pick one up from the store just along the road!

Hope you all stay healthy and safe out there. We are all equal in the eyes of Covid.. Be kind to each other🙂.

©youropinionsareirrelevant (OP) 4/2020. (Canon EOS). PLEASE DO NOT REMOVE TITLE/NOTES IF REBLOGGING. THANK YOU.

[gooferdusted]

wait you activated my theatre kid brain though.... Ruby as JD obviously and she's giving Sam the Relatable Backstory to get him to like her... "we can start and finish wars"... tbh don't know what to make Kurt & Ram dkhdkdk.. Sam slowly getting convinced by Ruby.... Yeah it do be hitting. Also not to bring up other songs but Meant To Be Yours being a "written like late seasons" AU where Ruby is revived in s5... "I can set you free!" "Then I found you, changed my heart" "Finish what we've begun"

ok wait I HAVE thought abt the kurt and ram part, and like... I think like a slow montage of sams powers growing stronger and like maybe the end is lucifer rising when sam finally realizes that lilith was the final seal... "what the fuck have you done?" (both at ruby and himself 👀👀)

ALSO YESYESYES MEANT TO BE YOURS AAAAAA

[nymphixdevelopmentarchive]

What changes will you be making in your Au? I crave the knowledge

Woah hi anon!! Thank you for all the questions so far! I would be really excited to share with you all the lore I can offer (without giving out too much ;) )!  I hope you didn’t mind the long wait as I wanted to get really deep into this so I hope you enjoy it!!

Nymphix: Dragon's End is a canon-divergent au (which for those who don’t know means after a certain point in canon I cut off from there to begin a new point of lore, writing, and story) which cuts off after season 6's midseason finale and completely erases s6.5 (Mythix) to s8 (Cosmix) in order to place Nymphix in an easier time frame. 

This is basically how ill be sectioning off this entire answer, apologies for how long it is I get really encouraged to write when people as me this stuff: 1 will be basic pre-nymphix lore, explaining how the au will break off from canon, 2 will be changes to designs for each girl/guy/and parents (only really the main two ill be using: Oritel and Marion) and finally 3 the new additions to Winx lore and explanations of them. 

Pre-Nymphix Lore

So how will this au break go about? Well in order to implement Nymphix smoothly, I had to do one rewrite which is for the s6 midseason finale. After the entire Vampire invasion of Gardenia, Selina promises the Trix that her best chapter is yet to come. Selina is planning to summon Archeon at last in order to finally get rid of the Winx and maybe even the Trix to absorb their energy into the Legendarium to free her master. So long story short, the Winx confront Selina and the Trix and they fight. The Trix cover for Selina as she reads from the Legendarium and Archeon slowly starts to climb out of it, sucking in magical energy from all except Selina. That is until Bloom talks to Selina and tries to convince her to stop which causes Selina to do a double-take and stop reading and decides to use the magic energy she gathered and sacrifice herself in order to save the others and to hopefully undo all the damage she's done. Yet she can't, as Eldora finally reveals herself and grabs the Legendarium from Selina and uses her Mythix and stored Fairy Godmother energy to seal herself and Archeon back in the Legendarium causing it to be safe. 

Now with Eldora out of the picture (both literally and plot-wise), the Mythix arc cannot happen setting off a chain of events causing s6.5-s8 to not happen and instead causing Nymphix to be slowly rolling into action. After the Battle of Cloudtower v.3, the Winx decide to take some personal time off from saving the universe for almost 6 years straight to focus on themselves. So for a year, the girls have been pursuing either their royal duties or personal dreams. Bloom is learning more about how to be a Dominoian Royal, learning under her mother, Queen Marion. Stella is back in Solaria going under rigorous training to become Queen of Solaria which causes her to be in isolation from Radius as he hones in on her training. Flora is with Helia in Lynphea with her parents planning a wedding while Helia is learning under Flora’s Father to become a medical wizard. Meanwhile, Musa is with Roxy on Earth working at Frutti Music Bar and working on her music career. Aisha is currently ruling over Andros as Interim Queen due to something happening and Tecna is working on a big project for Zenith with Timmy. Sky and Brandon are on Erakylon as good ol’ King Erendor is attempting to retire, making Sky king and Brandon his right-hand man.       2. Design Changes (cause the Dragon knows we need them) First of all: I’m doing more look changes, giving the girl’s different body types and heights as I just feel like that makes each girl a lot more different. I’ve also changed how some hair looks, probably just on how I draw hair but Bloom and Tecna’s are the most different in a sense of length and style. Here’s a height chart for reference (this is an old one so please forgive the shitty anatomy and other things, I haven’t had a chance to make another yet!):

  I’ll go into each girl’s differences stylistically briefly. Bloom has much longer and wilder hair than her canon s6 counterpart, I honestly didn’t like the whole thing she had going with her hair so I brought the old style back and made it a bit longer and crazier with a lot of waves. Stella is a lot shorter and has longer hair, keeping more or less everything the same. Flora is chaotically different, having a much much taller form and making her bangs not look like they can cut you on impact, similar to Bloom’s bangs. Tecna has a lot of changes as well, mostly with her hair, giving it a very unkept manner but longer than the pixie cut we’ve first seen her within S1-s5, making it as long as her Bloomix hair. Musa has the second shortest hair, keeping it tied with Aisha. Musa is also the shortest in the group, but can still kick your ass. Lastly, Aisha is at the same height as Bloom, but I decided to keep her original hairstyle from s2 and s3 as I feel like those are the best representations of her hair but added the salmon highlights into her hair cause I think those look amazing on her. One other thing I have changed for the girls is their Bloomix designs. I honestly didn’t have to redesign them but I couldn’t help myself as they have a lot of problems aesthetically and efficiently, especially for a webcomic. I went for a still-looking good, but less sharp design and got rid of that shitty side ponytail from Stella’s Bloomix. I’m also giving the girls a lot of unique outfits to wear based off of previous transformations so look forward to seeing that and the Bloomix designs!  The guys have a lot more fixes than the girls, giving them a better glow-up than whatever the fuck s4/s5 did to them (rip Sky and Helia’s hair). Sky and Helia get their glorious locks back in full swing and made them longer, while the entire boy group gets new outfits and armor! The parents also have modified designs and personalities, especially Oritel and Marion. Marion, or The Dragon Queen of Domino, is a feared royal to most of her enemies and even some of her allies but a soft mother and kind leader to her subjects from those who know her best. She’s the current guardian of the Dragon Flame, having the “guardian form” of the Flame giving her a special transformation. Marion is also known to have a fiery temper during Alliance debates and talks with other kingdoms. Oritel rules by her side, gifted “The Key of the Flame” (the sword from SOTLK and MA and other times) by Marion when they were first married. Oritel is a lot calmer and much more level-headed during debates than his wife and usually takes care of these affairs as well as ones closer to home. Also no more bucket helmets and weird half-circle hair for them, they get new designs.        3.  Added Lore 

This is gonna be a bit shorter than 1 and 2 since some of the stuff in the added lore section are MAJOR spoilers. However, I can give you somethings that I think you will like anon! First off we have The High Council of Fae which is a council containing guardians of all canon transformations including Nymphix. This council is the main place where Fairy magic is tested, kept safe, fairy-involved history is recorded and stored, and trails of fairies happen. Daphne is apart of the High Council, being Lady Sirenix (Harmonix included). No one except the Council themselves and their close family knows the guardian’s true identities (except for the royals of Andros due to a loophole in sentencing) and are kept secret at all times. Each guardian looks over their respective transformation and guides those who want to gain it in the right direction or protect those who are involved in said transformation (Like Mythix with the Legendarium, Tynix with the Mini Worlds, Butterflix with the Fairy Animals, and Cosmix with the Cosmic star energy that is used by the Queen to bless fairies who are worthy). Another thing added to the lore is a small thing, Fae is used to reference Earth Fairies as its used in common folklore to call fairies of Earth Fae, especially since the Earth Fae have an almost entirely different magic system and way of life. Lastly, the Dragon Flame isn’t just Blooms, it's also been given to Daphne and Marion. Due to Domino’s past, a girl or son born in Dominoian royalty is usually blessed with the Dragon’s Flame as when they become Queen/King, they are seen and trained to be the protectors of the Flame. Queen Marion is one of them, as stated earlier, having a special fairy form of the Dragon Flame especially suited for Queens and Kings. Daphne, however, is very unique. Due to Daphne also being Lady Sirenix (basically having pure sirenix energy straight from the Heart of Sirenix), combining it with her Flame created the Water Flame which is a special type of Dragon Flame that is so enhanced by Sirenix magic that it becomes the Water Dragon’s Flame. Bloom has the purest form of the Dragon Flame, having the chance to basically become God. Each holder of the dragon flame also has a special Dragon that is gifted to them after being blessed with the Flame, coming in different forms that suit the user. Marion has a ram-horned Dragon, Daphne has an Eastern-Dragon-inspired dragon, and Bloom has the dragon we all know and love. Also as a fun little addition, in times of great fury, power or distress a Dragon Flame user can have horns in the shape of their dragon appear on their heads. 

[apocylips]

my michael is canon divergent so the following hc stands for all verses (and i’ll be adding some ‘spn au’ specific notes for my new spn mutuals)- michael’s birth was both circumstantial (ghost/human parentage) and ritualistic, in the way that the murderhouse is... practically sacrificial grounds by 2012 with easily over two dozen deaths on the land, resting directly over a portal to hell... and then ofc michael was both delivered and fostered by murderous ghosts until constance finally managed to steal him away-

in an spn verse, my canon would require that lucifer was killed in s5 vs. locked in the cage, and a portion of his grace then went into michael’s making- the circumstances of which can be plotted out a bit differently if needed. (this, in an spn verse, honestly probably has a lot less to do with the whole portal to hell part and a lot more to do with god not being able to let his favorite son die but... i digress-)

michael is a rebirth of lucifer, and possesses lucifer’s sense memory as well as his wings (that he hasn’t even realized he has yet), while also being beholden qualities of satan/baphomet in that he also has completely black eyes, ram’s horns and hooves. michael is both reincarnation as well as creature. the form that michael presents daily isn’t even fully human, possessing snake-like physical qualities and other unique organ characteristics that make him stronger/faster.

other spn au verse specifics that are notable would be...

angels will recognize michael as lucifer because his features are after lucifer’s ‘purest image’, i.e. his true form (without a vessel); this is why he looks as lucifer is depicted in statues and paintings.

michael has no fucking clue. but like i said, sense memory. he’ll know by scent that sam winchester is important, that angels are angels, demons are demons, etc. a lot of his knowledge of combating these things is instinct, which wildly varies because like i said, michael has no clue.

not just spn wise-

michael is quite literally built to ‘sniff out’ humanity’s secrets. the closer he gets to you, the more he knows. an individual’s darkest secrets are bared naked to him- as long as he can perceive what he’s tasting (bc if we’re being technical, a jacobson’s organ tastes the air).

[papermoonloveslucy]

IT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT: LUCY & THE BOMPS!

by Earl Wilson, August 19, 1950

Lucille Ball wanted to keep Desi home and off the road so she petitioned for him to play her husband on radio’s “My Favorite Husband”.  The network balked and Richard Denning got the role instead. When it came time to transfer the show to television, Lucy made the same demand. Now a radio star in her own right, she was able to convince the network - nervous about America believing an ‘All-American girl’ like Lucy would be married to a Latin bandleader - to give them a chance to prove it!  The Arnazs’ built a comedy and musical act and took it on the road. When the show got to the Roxy in New York City, syndicated columnist Earl Wilson tagged along and wrote the following feature, which appeared on August 19, 1950.  Coincidentally, the Roxy was also the theatre where Desi Arnaz was performing when he wed Lucille Ball in 1940. 

[NOTE: Although the text of Wilson’s article is repeated below verbatim, the photos and footnotes were added for editorial consideration.]

Lucille Ball has been one of our most appreciated movie actresses for quite a while, but it was seeing her do a bump on the stage that made me really come to realize how talented she is.

It was after she’d done her clever act with husband Desi Arnaz at the Roxy that I talked to the flamin’ redhead about it.

“Wasn't that a bump?” I asked her, as we got into a cab and pulled away from the stagedoor. I wanted to be sure, because some snooty actresses wouldn’t want it thought that they ever did a bump.“That was a married woman’s refined version of a bump.”

Lucille was sitting back in the cab, exhausted from several shows that day, and clamoring to be taken somewhere to see a show. She said she had been entertaining all day and now she wanted to be entertained for a change.

“Did you say refined?” Desi looked across the cab at her. I was between them. “Any harder you do it and you will knock my hot off,” he said in his charming accent. (1)

At Desi’s urging, she told me a story showing that doing the bump is for her not new. It seems that once she made a picture for Eric Palmer called Dance, Girl, Dance. (2)

“He was telling me, ‘Those bomps. Don’t do those bomps bad or the sansors will keep the picture.’

“So I was doing a very tame dance, not bumping at all. I had on a 27-pound dress, silver lame, with bugle beads, and it rolled from side to side when I shook.

“Durin’ a scene, Palmer jumped up and said, ‘Oh, oh, that was a bomp. I told you no bomps.’

“I went up to him and I said, ‘Mr. Palmer, that was not a bomp. THIS is a bomp.’  “And I bumped and I wrapped those 27 pounds of beads right around his neck!”

It’s a pleasure to talk to two such honest, earthy people after listening to some others who are always posing. A lot of people are astonished that they are celebrating their 10th wedding anniversary because, as Desi points out, “Everyone said it wouldn’t last a month.” “And WE didn’t think it would last a week,” Lucille said. (3)

Being romantically inclined, I asked for the details which most everybody must have forgotten by now but the participants themselves.

“Where did you get married?” I asked Desi.

“The Byram River Beagle Club, at Greenwich, Conn.,” Lucille said. (4)

“Thank you, I can never say that,” said her Cuban husband.

“Yes, you can. Try it,” Lucille said.

“The By-ram River Bee-gul Club,” Desi said dutifully and slowly.

“Faster!” commanded Lucille. (5)

“The Byver Regal Civer Club,” responded Desi.

“Oh, my,” said Lucille, “We were married by Judge John J. O’Brien. He’s the one who married Tommy Manville so many times.” (6)

Although Desi missed a show at the Roxy, where he was then appearing, to get married, he remembers, just as vividly, how on his wedding night he woke up the bride about 5 A.M. and demanded that she get him a glass of water. The funny thing is that she did.

“About 9 o’clock she woke me up,” Desi recalls, “and she said ‘Listen, you—, the next time you want a glass of water you get it yourself!’” (7)

Desi explains that he’s never made such a request since.

Desi and Lucille have formed their own company which they call Desilu Productions, this being a combination, of course of their two first names. “First time I ever got top billing,” Desi says.

They plan to do concerts, radio, television and movies together. Lucille comes from Butte, Mont., and, as everybody knows, has red hair. (8)

Lucille made up a description of herself around which a movie will be made. The title which describes her so accurately is "Blazing Beulah From Butte," and we figure it ought to get the money. (9)

Never underestimate that Desi.

When they were getting married it appeared that she might not be able to because of a commitment to Harold Lloyd.

Desi called Lloyd from New York and defiantly announced to him that Lucille couldn’t be available that week, as he was marrying her. “Y-yes, D-desi, c-can she be back next k-weeek?” stammered Lloyd, who never does. (10)

Desi is pretty masterful; when he speaks, to Lucille he is her master’s voice.

FOOTNOTES

(1) The ‘bomps’ discussed are undoubtedly from the “Cuban Pete / Sally Sweet” number, where Lucy gyrates her hips while singing “Chick-Chicky-Boom Chick-Chicky-Boom.” The routine was repeated (with ‘bomps’ included) on “I Love Lucy” in “The Diet” (ILL S1;E3) in October 1951. 

(2) The article consistently mis-spells Erich Pommer as ‘Eric Palmer.’  Pommer was the producer of Lucille Ball’s 1940 film Dance, Girl, Dance at RKO. 

(3) Lucy and Desi’s marriage lasted twenty years, from 1940 to 1960, although Lucille divorced Desi in the mid-1940s, Lucy never signed the paperwork. After their second divorce was final, Lucy revealed that Desi was unfaithful and a drinker, and that they were no longer compatible. Lucy charged “mental cruelty” and told the court of Desi’s temper tantrums. Some years later, she described the reason for the split as “the same old booze and broads.” Both Ball and Arnaz remarried, although they stayed friends and later admitted that they had always loved one another. 

(4) Lucy and Desi married in Connecticut due to its shorter waiting period on licenses and blood tests. The Byram River Beagle Club in Greenwich was originally a Hunt and Kennel Club that became a speakeasy during Prohibition and after that a supper club. It was a favorite hangout of baseball great Babe Ruth. A single-family home now stands on the property.  In April 1952, “I Love Lucy” aired an episode called “The Marriage License” (ILL S1;E26) that was largely set in Greenwich and mentioned The Byram River Beagle Club, although no scenes were set there because Lucy purposely left Ricky’s wallet at home and they ran out of gas! 

(5) In “The Marriage License” Ricky also had trouble pronouncing the name. On “I Love Lucy” making fun of Ricky’s English was a usual source of comedy - mostly by Lucy - just as it appears to be here - in 1950.  

(6) Thomas Franklyn Manville, Jr., known as Tommy Manville (1894-1967), was a Manhattan socialite and heir to the Johns-Manville asbestos fortune. He was a celebrity in the mid-20th Century due to both his inherited wealth and his record-breaking 13 marriages to 11 women, which won him an entry in the Guinness Book of World Records. At the time of this interview, however, Manville was only on his 6th wife!  The termination of his marriages usually resulted in gossip, widespread publicity, and huge cash settlements. At the time of his death it was estimated that Manville spent more than $1.25 million on divorce settlements.

(7) This exchange (with slight variation) was later worked into “I Love Lucy”! 

(8) At the start of her career - and apparently well into 1950 - Lucille Ball purported to have been born in Butte, Montana, despite her actual birthplace being Jamestown, in upstate New York.  Ball (who then went by the name Diane Belmont) thought it sounded more interesting and exotic.  

(9) Despite the alliterative title, "Blazing Beulah from Butte” was never made, perhaps because shortly afterwards Ball admitted her true birthplace. “Blazing Beulah from Jamestown” doesn’t have quite the same ring. It’s also likely that this was a clever bon mot on Desi’s part to create a more colorful interview. 

(10) Comic actor and director Harold Lloyd had put Lucille under contract for his film A Girl, A Guy, and A Gob, to be filmed in 1940. There was some speculation that marrying Arnaz would interfere with the shooting schedule. 

TRIVIA

While Lucy and Desi were at the Roxy, the theatre was also showing Night and the City, which had premiered there on June 5, 1950. At this time it was common for a larger entertainment venues like the Roxy to present both a stage show and a first run film. Night and the City starred Richard Widmark, who Lucy and Desi later convinced to guest-star on “I Love Lucy” in “The Tour” (ILL S4;E30) in May 1955. 

In “Return Home From Europe” (ILL S5;E26), Ricky gets a long-distance telephone call from the manager of the Roxy, Mr. Rothafel, offering him a job, if he can get back to New York immediately. In reality, Rothafel was the name of the founder of the Roxy, Mr. Samuel ‘Roxy’ Rothafel. Rothafel died in early 1936, however, so this was probably Desi’s way of honoring him. 

Earl Wilson was mentioned on “I Love Lucy” in “The Fox Hunt” (ILL  S5;E16). While trying to wangle an invitation to Sir Clive’s country manor, Lucy makes up a story about the Mertzes meeting an Earl in the hotel lobby. When Sir Clive rattles off the names of some Earls to jog her memory, she fibs that he was just promoted from Assistant Earl, the Earl of Wilson, who canceled because he’s got the gout! Lucy’s imaginary Earl is actually a reference to Earl Wilson (1907-87), a journalist and television panelist of the time. His nationally syndicated column frequently mentioned Lucy and Desi. 

In 1974, Lucy strikes a pose for Wilson during her promotional tour for Mame.

[williamsockner]

SPN S5 Season Finale Watchnotes

FINALE FINALE FINALE

“Carry On My Wayward Son” is the most ridiculously over-the-top song and the fact that they use it for every finale delights me.

Dean: Hey Sam so I know you’re about to lock yourself in eternal torment, but I would like to draw your attention, once again, to my Daddy issues and low self-esteem.

Jensen Ackles is particularly growly and grunty this episode and it makes all these emotional scenes very difficult to take even remotely seriously.

Dean: What am I supposed to do if you die? Sam: Your options are either to go use this chick you barely know as your emotional crutch and project a bunch of issues onto her son, or to get goddamn therapy, and I think we both know which one you’re going to choose.

Sam: Cas, make sure Dean doesn’t do anything stupid. Cas: hahhhahaha what

Given that demon blood gives some people telepathy, I have no idea why it never occurred to the boys that the devil might be able to tell if they’re lying.

MAGIC FIDGET SPINNER.

I feel like Jared Padalecki was given about 20% more of a goal than he could accomplish with this split-screen effect of playing both Sam and Lucifer.

Okay, like, this reveal that Sam’s been babysat by demons since he was a baby makes no sense with the earlier canon, because when they accidentally opened the door to hell it was a big deal that a few hundred demons were let out and that was a massive spike in activity. If every Special Child had a bunch of demon handlers, there would have already been hundreds of demons in the US already. If Sam was the only Special Child with handlers, why was there the dumb Hunger Games deathmatch to determine who would lead the armies of Hell?

Imagine how much more impactful this showdown between Sam and Adam would be if Adam had a personatalie.

Man, SPN has never been a show for subtlety but this Lucifer and Michael discussion about rebelling against their father is the most hamfisted, artless, lumbering thing they’ve ever put on the screen.

Oh my God is Dean just going to ram the devil with his car

Oh my God all they needed to attack the big bads of the whole season were magic molotov cocktails?

I like that that one-off Monster of the Week siren was strong enough to get the brothers to kill each other but Satan himself can’t manage it.

The music choices in this episode are completely insane.

Hahaha they realized it would be a depressing finale if Jensen Ackles weren’t looking pretty at the end so they had him instantaneously healed out of the bloody prosthetics. I see what you did there, SPN.

“Endings are hard,” Chuck says, “so we’re going to keep this gravy train going another ten seasons.”

Imagine if Lisa were an actual character and not just a vacant smiling pretty girl who seems to always have time for Dean to show up in the middle of the night on her doorstep in obvious distress with a bunch of cryptic needy demands.

[sunalsolove]

I’ve got a question! How would you rank the 5 seasons of AOS, and also how would you rank the 5 seasons based solely off Fitzsimmons moments? I did this for myself today and my FS chart was almost the complete opposite of my general season rankings!

I think my answer is exactly the same for each? Since it’s mostly those FS moments, good or bad, that drive how much I enjoy the season?

Season 3: I liked S3 a lot (barring space rando as a Macguffin). It was a pretty tightly woven plot from start to finish, I really got a massive kick out of HIVE, there were still funny parts, it was pretty epic in scale, FS finally got together, and I didn’t like Lincoln enough to feel *that* bad that he sacrificed himself. (Sorry, Lincoln) I was more upset on Daisy’s behalf. There were so many good moments. It turned into Buffy for a moment. (Seriously? Squidface is a senior partner, i.e. the Ram? REALLY??? I was screaming. Loudly.) FS boinked. 

Season 1: Besides having the EXACT same damn twist as S2 of Buffy (more or less) I really liked the first season. There was so much humor! Human ingenuity and skill saved the day, some of the episodes linked back to the larger Marvel universe. There was a flying car. Fitz and Simmons were cute little beans. Daisy was totally the newbie that needed everything explained to her so that the audience would know what was going on. The pink dress. Coulson right at the end. The pod scene that was heartbreaking, beautiful, and that destroys me every time. 

Season 2: Huntingbird! Daisy gets her powers! Everything is bigger and scarier than S1 and friendships and relationships are much more complex. Way more complex. Kind of too complex at some points. May dances. Fitz wears glasses. I think the season ended up being too complex and fell apart under its own weight. To many intersecting plotlines and too many new characters. Also way too many overly dramatic deaths. Trip? Really? Izzy? Ugh. 

Season 5: Too many villain side plots (sorry to everyone that likes the blues). Space and time travel were not that exciting to me. I don’t know what they were reaching for, but it all seemed to end up a muddied mess. Kind of like the lighting. There were some retrod themes and some moral point making that I did not agree with. The writers seemed to forget everything we liked about the show by the end. Screw found family and friendships, don’t you want to know how being overly attached to your freaky daughter will unbalance you and make you try to destroy the world? The wedding was the only bright point (literally) and now it doesn’t matter because watching one of my favorite characters bleed out because there’s a back up version somewhere is rewarding cinema. 

Season 4: Well, I like how it starts? But wait, no I don’t. Jemma isn’t in the lab. WTF???? I don’t care about power or whatever the hell with pulled out of the writer’s arse’s Mace. She’s a laboratory scientist with two doctorates, she’s NOT A FLIPPING ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANT. I like Robbie. The 4a Ghost Rider arc was a highlight. Only GHOSTS? Okay, why they wanted to make a whole season with endless daddy issues that is basically sideways Hamlet I don’t know. It sucked. I hated it. 4b with it domestic abuse torture porn is disgusting. The framework flat out makes no sense. Yeah, yeah...darkhold blah, blah, blah, but there was a million different ways that could have gone and all it did was do things like give Mack false hope (which you should’t cling to), let us know love can’t conquer shit (thanks for ZERO emotional payoff for my faves, btw, that was great) and literally ended up with AIDA going off the rails because she was a woman scorned. WTF?? It what universe it that an acceptable ending? It was all overly pretentious shite. I really have no idea why I kept watching. Or made it to S5. It destroyed the thing about the show I love, that science and people can save the day just as well a magical super heroes and tossed in the trash. We got the darkhold and well I love Robbie and Quake, that we needed good vs. bad wacky magic super pissed me off. 

[philomaela]

so what'd you think of the s5 finale

I thought that overall it was a good ep, and it ended in the best way it possibly could (in the way that made the most sense for these character… “arcs”), it might have been better if the season as a whole was more impactful. I feel like you could have basically thrown away the first six episodes, or at least the majority of them. That’s more than half the season… that’s not good. 

Ok… so I’ve received other asks about specific things in the finale, so here I’m just going to take a moment to hyperfocus on that first battle scene, if that’s all good.

I was really disappointed in that first battle scene, which I did not expect bc normally vikings is on point with all of its battle scenes. I think Vikings is a pretty unique show in that its battles are often wildly different in terms of structure/emotion. You’ve got battles that clearly illustrate historical tactics, battles that show epic scale and vision, and battles that are just artsy AF. Like, when I saw comments criticizing how the s5a finale battle “made no sense” structurally… I was like… well yeah, it’s not a structured scene, it’s meant to demonstrate emotions and it achieved that spectacularly (PRETEND THE SKELETON THING DIDN’T HAPPEN OK, OTHER THAN THAT, IT WAS BEAUTIFUL).

So, I found this battle really disappointing, it was clearly meant to be extremely claustrophobic, hence the shaky-cam and lack of wide shots. These are characters who are pressed up against a wall, even though they are technically on the offensive, and the two sides are incredibly disconnected from each other. I get the desire to shoot the scene like that. My issue is that within the battle there’s a lot of focus on tech, there are ramps, battering rams…. ivar has a fucking FLAMETHROWER. You don’t give us any wide shots, we can’t see how this tech operates and the tech is clearly something that draws our attention away from the emotions you’re trying to focus on. Like again… flamethrower, why would you introduce a flamethrower and then try to be like “no don’t look at it!”

It felt like a bit of a contradiction you know? Same thing with Olaf on his fucking shields calling out to the Gods like… that didn’t feel intimate like with Rollo and his chant. That felt weird and totally contradictory to the down to earth, trapped helplessness that they were trying to capture. I mean, look at these guys, down in the trenches, now ok lets just go back up here and watch this dude scream for a few minutes. Like… it makes sense if Ivar does shit like that, he’s got the power in this scene, but Olaf? This isn’t an arsty-apocalyptic battle, you gotta pick ur vibe and stick with it show!

But Bjorn’s plea to the people of Kattegat, that was genuinely moving and understandable. He did a great job there and it was great that the season ended with him somewhat horrified at all the bloodshed even while others cheered at the fact that he was king… I feel like you maybe didn’t need Lagertha and Ubbe to come back so everyone could be reunited but… I can also see how you wouldn’t want to leave that till next season.

Ok yeah sorry, that was a lot but I had a lot of thoughts about this battle which is weird considering I don’t really know wtf I’m talking about lmao.

[sour-n-salty-citrus]

If c-137 rick is the most loving rick of all the ones in the central finite curve, I dont want to even imagine what all the others Ricks are doing,, oh my god those poor Mortys

Oh god I know. Man everything kinda flashed by almost too quick too really process (nEED to rewatch that episode again) but god, that image with the mortys on a conveyor belt, and all those dead bodies.... jesus hell.

I'm not sure if our Rick is the most loving. There's probably other Ricks who are nicer to their Mortys and wouldn't treat them too bad, and do genuinely love them. (Partly this is wishful thinking and partly because of the Ricks in the s3 citadel episode who were supporting Morty Rights ane holding up signs like "I love my grandson" (or was it "proud of my grandson"? I cant remember-)

Our Rick definitely cares for and respects his Morty more than the average, but I think he's also a bit meaner. In the sense that... well, you've seen our Morty. He's not coddled even the slightest, but this has toughened him up. I'm not going to say "oh Rick was harsh on him for his own good and was doing it because he secretly cares!!1!1" because, no, what Morty's been through is inexcusable and awful. But, admittedly, in a way it has helped him. He's been able to- allowed to grow and become more independent (whether Rick likes it or not). I've seen fics have other Ricks call ours "a real asshole", and I think it's true. I think, in maybe a surface-level way, most Ricks are actually nicer to their Mortys, but then don't see them as more than a tool/see them as easily replaceable. They see them as like a pet, the perfect little sidekick.

It's kind of disturbing, really. Our RaM have a much more complicated relationship... but say what you want about Rick, I don't think he could ever consider Morty truly "replaceable", not even with another version of himself. He treats Morty like crap (admittedly a little better in later seasons), but Morty means a lot to him. Morty is someone who's so much closer to Rick's heart than he wants to admit, to himself and others, so he's constantly acting like Morty doesn't matter to him and that he doesn't care. I think a lot of other Ricks don't feel the need to go through that effort, are a lot nicer (for a Rick, anyway) and don't push their Mortys as hard... on the darker underbelly of that, though, they don't care as much. Aren't as loving... if their Morty died, they'd feel sad... and then shake it off, and get a new one.

But oh gosh the ANGST POTENTIAL!!! As a whole, Mortys are considered like- like tools! Not even their own person, not even people. It's heart-wrenching, and sickening. I imagine almost everything you'd see on a whump blog lol (;-;). I feel so bad for the poor babies... Ricks really suck.

[lilithmh]

Final Project: Statistical analysis of the last 70 years of temperature data within a 50 mile radius of Lutz; LIS4273.720F21

Problem description:

I wish to further validate the topic of climate change, and specifically the fact that over the last 70 years the average temperature has been steadily increasing and shows signs of speeding up.

Related work:

Because temperature change is seasonal time series data the holt-winter model can be applied to the data and from this model trend data can be acquired which can be further analyzed through the use of a linear model.

Solution:

Since so much data was loaded from the ASOS stations the total csv size was 828 MB, working with this data would on average take over 10 GB of system ram making it impossible to realistically process. Due to this fact I loaded the data into 11 even sized chunks to load and process on each individual cpu thread. when the data is imported in chunks that chunk is cleaned such that the raw metar data which contains all weather data from temp to wend to clouds only held the temperature data. This temperature data had a date and time associated with it which was further used to group all data sets with the same data and time. This is done because I take the average of all temperatures at a specific time to find the general average. I do this to all 7,321,792 rows which each have 5 variables with the 5′th being a long text format and compress the data down to a measly 2,295,812 rows with only 3 variables which are all small format.

Once the data has been loaded into the system and mostly cleaned up a final cleaning is done, this step is required because there are a few outlier in the data where older stations reported poor measurements. To filter out the outliers the 25% and 75% quantile are calculated and the IQR is found, with these two values the lower bound Q1-1.5*IQR and the upper bound Q2+1.5*IQR are used to remove any values outside of this range.

After this cleanup is done the data needs to be converted from 5 minute averages to monthly averages, this is done by first finding the average to hours, then days, then months. With this monthly average it apparent that most data before 1950 is damaged or mangled and is thus dropped, I believe that at this time some changes to how the stations work was done and resulted in some off reports.

Now that the data is cleaned and grouped a time series was produced in which a frequency of 12 was used from 1950 to 2021, this time series is as shown below.

With this time series the holt-winter model can be applied and used to predict how the next five years will be while using previous temperature data.

As the image shows while subtle it is apparent that the predictions show a slight increase in temperature each year past 2021, The exact results of the holt-winter model are as shown below:

result_ts_full_forecast

Holt-Winters exponential smoothing without trend and with additive seasonal component.

Call: HoltWinters(x = result_ts_full, beta = F, gamma = T)

Smoothing parameters: alpha: 0.7442202 beta : FALSE gamma: TRUE

Coefficients:          [,1] a   22.3724351 s1   4.4709913 s2  -6.6475012 s3   2.3752901 s4  -2.9736439 s5  -5.1191774 s6  -3.6465249 s7  -3.0853527 s8  -0.4327501 s9   1.8427456 s10  3.9978296 s11  4.7357569 s12  4.6563940

sum(result$temp^2) 452912.9

result_ts_full_forecast$SSE 2076.511

Since the model has an alpha of 0.744 it is apparent that newer entries are much more heavily weighted than older entries, this is important when considering the trend of the data and issues a linear representation will have. The SST of the data is 452,912.9 while the SSE is 2,076.511, the SSE is much lower that the SST being about 0.46% of the SST. Since this value is low the model is lacking some variables that contribute greatly, this is explored a little later.

Now that the holt-winter model has been applied an examination of the individual components can be done, by decomposing the model and plotting out the individual parts the following four graphs can be produced.

These graphs show that there is a very apparent increasing trend and that a large component of the data is random. This random component is what was mentioned above when talking about missing variables, since the random component contributes so much to the data it shows that something is missed when processing the model, most likely cloud coverage and relative humidity play a major role in this randomness.

Further looking into the trend of the time series there is an obvious increase over time, however, as stated above the alpha value is quite high at 0.74 meaning that while this trend is plotted linearly it would be a more apt description to say that the data is closer to some kind of exponential increase with a heavy focus on new data.

With this in mind a linear model is still used due to a lack on knowledge on how to approach this problem in a more accurate sense. This model can be analyzed and is shown below:

result_summary Call: lm(formula = Y ~ date, data = result_trend)Residuals:    Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max -1.28150 -0.29936  0.00757  0.33279  1.28584 Coefficients:             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)     (Intercept) -4.0317216  1.6099643  -2.504   0.0125 *   date         0.0133488  0.0008106  16.467   <2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1Residual standard error: 0.4841 on 849 degrees of freedom (12 observations deleted due to missingness) Multiple R-squared:  0.2421, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2412 F-statistic: 271.2 on 1 and 849 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

result_conf_int                  2.5 %      97.5 % (Intercept) -7.19169846 -0.87174472 date         0.01175767  0.01493989

From the model the notion of a lacking variable is apparent with an incredibly low R^2 value of only 0.24 meaning that only 24% of the data variance is actually covered by the model. This number is most likely even lower due to how the alpha value is ignored in the current model. Since the data variable  has such a low P-value this variable is incredibly significant to the model. With this in mind now that the model is shown to be increasing undeniably the confidence interval of the coefficient can be calculated and is shown the be 0.0118 at 2.5% and 0.0149 at 97.5%, these values imply that the temperature increases by some number between these two values every year.

With the time series data decomposed a graph can be produced with the seasonal aspect of the temperature over time removed. When the seasonal component of the data is removed the trend of temperature increase is even more apparent with an obvious spike happening in the last ~8 years.

Conclusion:

With all of the data presented by the models it is apparent that the yearly temperature in the local Lutz area is undeniably increasing and that the temperature specifically is increasing by somewhere between 0.0118 deg C/Year to 0.0149 deg C/Year.

Notes:

The data is pulled from http://www.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=FL_ASOS specifically from the ZPH, PCM, VDF, CLW, TPF, MCF, BKV, PIE, SPG, SRQ, and the TPA stations with all dates, Raw METAR, UTC, long lat, and both limit report types.

code: 

cat("\014")package_checker <- function(package_names){  for (i in 1:length(package_names)){    if (!nzchar(system.file(package = package_names[i]))){      install.packages(package_names[i], repos = "http://cran.us.r-project.org")    }    require(package_names[i], character.only=TRUE)  } } file_import <- function(file_name, file_type = ".csv"){  files <- list.files(path = file_name, pattern = file_type, full.names = TRUE)  if (file_type == ".csv"){    data_list <- lapply(files, read.csv)  } else if (file_type == ".xlsx"){    data_list <- lapply(files, read_xlsx)  } else {    break()  }  return(as.data.frame(do.call("rbind", data_list))) } HWplot<-function(ts_object,  n.ahead=4,  CI=.95,  error.ribbon='green',                 line.size=1, gamma = T, zoom = F, zx1 = NULL, zx2 = NULL){  hw_object<-HoltWinters(ts_object, beta = F, gamma = gamma)  forecast<-predict(hw_object,  n.ahead=n.ahead,  prediction.interval=T,  level=CI)  for_values<-data.frame(time=round(time(forecast),  3),                         value_forecast=as.data.frame(forecast)$fit,                         dev=as.data.frame(forecast)$upr-as.data.frame(forecast)$fit)  fitted_values<-data.frame(time=round(time(hw_object$fitted),  3),                            value_fitted=as.data.frame(hw_object$fitted)$xhat)  actual_values<-data.frame(time=round(time(hw_object$x),  3),                            Actual=c(hw_object$x))  graphset<-merge(actual_values,  fitted_values,  by='time',  all=TRUE)  graphset<-merge(graphset,  for_values,  all=TRUE,  by='time')  graphset[is.na(graphset$dev),  ]$dev<-0  graphset$Fitted<-c(rep(NA,  NROW(graphset)-(NROW(for_values) + NROW(fitted_values))),                     fitted_values$value_fitted,                     for_values$value_forecast)  graphset.melt<-melt(graphset[, c('time', 'Actual', 'Fitted')], id='time')  p<-ggplot(graphset.melt,  aes(x=time,  y=value)) +    geom_ribbon(data=graphset,                aes(x=time, y=Fitted, ymin=Fitted-dev,  ymax=Fitted + dev),                alpha=.2,                fill=error.ribbon) +    geom_line(aes(colour=variable), size=line.size) +    geom_vline(aes(xintercept=max(actual_values$time)),  lty=2) +    xlab('Years') + ylab('Temp C') + theme(legend.position='bottom') +    scale_colour_hue('')  if (zoom) {    p <- p + coord_cartesian(xlim = c(zx1, zx2),)  }  return(p) }package_names <- c("tidyverse",                   "sqldf",                   "grid",                   "doParallel",                   "lubridate",                   "reshape")package_checker(package_names)files <- list.files(path = "Final_Project_Data", pattern = ".csv", full.names = TRUE) readsizeof <- 1000000 temp_nooflines <- c(0, 0)if (!exists("weather_data_loaded")) {  cores = detectCores()  cl <- makeCluster(cores[1]-1)  registerDoParallel(cl)  for (i in files) {    nooflines <- 0    testcon <- file(i, open = "r")    while((linesread <- length(readLines(testcon,readsizeof))) > 0 ){      nooflines <- nooflines+linesread    }    j <- which(files == i)    temp_nooflines[j] <- nooflines    close(testcon)  }  nooflines <- temp_nooflines  result <- list(data.frame(), data.frame())  for (i in 1:2) {    rowskip <- 0    cap <- ceiling(nooflines[i]/length(cl))    cat(i, "\n")    result[[i]] <- foreach (j = 1:length(cl), .combine = "rbind", .packages = c("dplyr", "stringr", "tidyr")) %dopar% {      temp <- read.table(files[i], sep = ",", header = F,                         colClasses = c("NULL", NA, "NULL", "NULL", "NULL", NA),                         skip = (j - 1) * cap, nrows = cap)      temp$V6 <- temp$V6 %>%        str_extract("[0-9]{2}[/]{1}") %>%        str_replace("/", "") %>%        as.numeric      temp$V2 <- temp$V2 %>%        as.POSIXct(format = "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M")      temp <- temp %>%        group_by(V2) %>%        mutate(denom = 1) %>%        drop_na %>%        summarise_at(c("V6", "denom"), sum)      cat(i, j, "\n")      result[[i]] <- temp    }  }  stopCluster(cl)  result <- do.call("rbind", result)  weather_data_loaded <- result} else {  result <- weather_data_loaded }result <- result %>%  group_by(V2) %>%  summarise_at(c("V6", "denom"), sum) %>%  transmute(date = V2,            temp = V6/denom)Q <- quantile(result$temp, c(0.25, 0.75)) iqr <- IQR(result$temp) up <- Q[2]+1.5*iqr low <- Q[1]-1.5*iqrresult <- subset(result, result$temp > low & result$temp < up)result <- result %>%  group_by(paste(date(date), hour(date), sep = " ")) %>%  summarise(temp = mean(temp)) %>%  dplyr::rename(date = 1) %>%  group_by(date(date)) %>%  summarise(temp = mean(temp)) %>%  dplyr::rename(date = 1) %>%  group_by(paste(year(date), month(date), sep = "-")) %>%  summarise(temp = mean(temp)) %>%  dplyr::rename(date = 1)temp <- result$date %>%  str_extract("[0-9]{4}[\\-][0-9]$") %>%  str_replace("[\\-]", "\\-0") temp[is.na(temp)] <- result$date[is.na(temp)] temp <- as.Date(paste(temp, "-01", sep = "")) result$date <- temp result <- result[result$date >= "1950-01-01",]result_ts_full <- ts(result$temp, frequency = 12, start=c(year(min(result$date)),month(min(result$date)))) result_ts_full_convert <- data.frame(Y=as.matrix(result_ts_full), date=time(result_ts_full)) result_ts_full_convert <- ggplot(result_ts_full_convert, aes(x = date, y = Y)) + geom_line() + xlab('Years') + ylab('Temp C') plot(result_ts_full_convert)HWplot(result_ts_full, n.ahead = 60)result_ts_full_components <- decompose(result_ts_full) result_ts_names <- names(result_ts_full_components)for (i in 1:4) {  frame_var <- paste("result_ts_full_components", result_ts_names[i], sep = "_")  temp <- data.frame(Y=as.matrix(result_ts_full_components[[i]]),                     date=time(result_ts_full_components[[i]]))  temp <- ggplot(temp, aes(x = date, y = Y)) + geom_line() + xlab('Years') + ylab('Temp C')  if (i == 3) {    temp <- temp + geom_smooth(method = lm, se = F,)  }  temp <- ggplotGrob(temp)  assign(frame_var, temp) }result_trend <- data.frame(Y=as.matrix(result_ts_full_components$trend),                           date=time(result_ts_full_components$trend)) result_model <- lm(Y ~ date, data = result_trend) result_summary <- summary(result_model) result_summary result_conf_int <- confint(result_model) result_conf_intresult_ts_chunk <- rbind(result_ts_full_components_x,                         result_ts_full_components_trend,                         result_ts_full_components_seasonal,                         result_ts_full_components_random, size = "first") grid.draw(result_ts_chunk)plot(result_ts_full_components_trend)result_ts_full_adjusted <- result_ts_full - result_ts_full_components$seasonal result_ts_full_adjusted <- data.frame(Y=as.matrix(result_ts_full_adjusted), date=time(result_ts_full_adjusted)) result_ts_full_adjusted <- ggplot(result_ts_full_adjusted, aes(x = date, y = Y)) + geom_line() + xlab('Years') + ylab('Temp C') plot(result_ts_full_adjusted)result_ts_full_forecast <- HoltWinters(result_ts_full, beta = F, gamma = T) result_ts_full_forecast$fitted result_ts_full_forecast$SSE sum(result$temp^2) result_ts_full_forecast

[gamehayapkmod]

게임빌프로야구2020 슈퍼스타즈

게임빌프로야구2020 슈퍼스타즈

Game 게임빌프로야구2020 슈퍼스타즈 là dòng game Sports

Giới thiệu 게임빌프로야구2020 슈퍼스타즈

■게임 소개■ ▶신규 대회모드 갤럭시 컵 2020시즌 개막의 하이라이트! 매회 색다른 컨셉과 라인업으로 경쟁하자! ▶신규 시나리오 샤이닝 앤젤스! 2020시즌을 장식할 그녀들이 왔다! 이제 야구도 청순발랄 야구돌과 상큼하게 즐기자! ▶[나만의 선수] 주어진 시간은 6주! 목표는 라이징 스타 리그 우승이다! 포지션별 끝판왕 선수들을 키워보자! ▶야구할래, 연애할래? 야구하구 연애도 하는거야! 호감도를 쌓아 트레이너의 슈퍼스킬을 전수받자! ▶마침내 찾아온 기회의 순간! 이 순간을 기다려왔다! 훈련 성과를 한 방으로 보여주자! 더 많은 이벤트와 최신 정보는 공식 카페 및 브랜드 페이지에서 확인해보세요! ★ 브랜드 페이지 바로가기: http://bit.ly/GAMEVILBSS_KR ★ 공식 카페 바로가기: https://cafe.naver.com/gamevilbss ** 최소 사양 : 갤럭시 S5 (OS 5.0) / RAM 2G ** 본 게임의 일부 아이템은 구매가 필요하며, 종류에 따라 추가 비용이 발생할 수 있습니다. 스마트폰 앱 접근권한 안내 ▶접근권한 별 안내 앱 이용 시 아래와 같은 서비스를 제공하기 위해 접근 권한을 요청하고 있습니다. [선택적 접근권한] - 단말기 정보: 게임 내 이벤트 진행 및 보상 지급 대상자 확인, 고객센터 문의 처리를 위해 필요한 정보입니다. 전화 걸기를 비롯한 단말기 기능에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. - 저장공간: 게임 화면을 저장하거나, 불러올 때 사용되는 권한입니다. 게임 이외의 개인 저장정보에 접근하지 않습니다. ※ 선택적 접근권한의 허용에 동의하지 않아도, 해당 권한과 관련된 기능을 제외한 서비스의 이용은 가능합니다. ※ 안드로이드 6.0미만 버전을 사용하시는 경우에는 선택적 접근권한을 개별적으로 설정하실 수 없으므로, 6.0이상으로 업그레이드 하는 것을 권장 드립니다. ※ 일부 앱의 경우 개별 동의 기능을 제공하지 않을 수 있으며, 아래와 같은 방법으로 접근권한을 철회할 수 있습니다. ▶접근권한 철회방법 접근 권한 동의 후, 다음과 같이 접근권한을 재설정하거나 철회할 수 있습니다. [운영체제6.0이상] 설정>애플리케이션 관리>해당 앱선택>권한>접근권한 동의 또는 철회 선택 [운영체제6.0미만] 운영체제를 업그레이드하여 접근권한을 철회하거나, 앱을 삭제 * 게임빌 공식 웹사이트 : https://www.withhive.com * 게임빌 공식 페이스북 커뮤니티 : https://www.facebook.com/gamevilfan/?pnref=story * 게임빌 1:1 문의 하기 : https://m.withhive.com/customer/inquire ---- 개발자 연락처 : 서울시 금천구 가산디지털1로 131 BYC하이시티 A동 3층 02-1588-4263 사업자 등록번호:119-81-34778 통신판매업신고번호:제 2019-서울금천-0855호 통신판매업신고기관:서울특별시 금천구청 ■ Game introduction ■ ▶ New competition mode Galaxy Cup Highlight of the opening of the 2020 season! Let's compete with a different concept and lineup every time! ▶ New scenario shining angels! They are going to decorate the 2020 season! Now, let's enjoy baseball with fresh and pure baseball! ▶ [My Player] The given time is 6 weeks! The goal is to win the Rising Star League! Let's raise the king of the end plate by position! ▶ Would you like to play baseball or love? Baseball and dating! Let's build a good feeling and receive the trainer's super skill! ▶ A moment of opportunity that has finally come! I've been waiting for this moment! Let's show the training results in one room! Check out the official cafe and brand page for more events and the latest information! ★ Go to the brand page: http://bit.ly/GAMEVILBSS_KR ★ Go to the official cafe: https://cafe.naver.com/gamevilbss ** Minimum specification: Galaxy S5 (OS 5.0) / RAM 2G ** Some items in this game require purchase, and additional fees may apply depending on the type. Smartphone App Access Rights Guide ▶ Information by access authority When using the app, we are requesting access to provide the following services. [Optional access rights] -Terminal information: Information required for in-game event progress, compensation payment confirmation, and customer service inquiry processing. It does not affect terminal functionality, including dialing. -Storage: Permission used to save or load the game screen. We do not access personal storage information other than games. ※ Even if you do not agree to allow the optional access right, you can use the service except for functions related to the right. ※ If you are using Android version less than 6.0, it is recommended that you upgrade to version 6.0 or higher, as you cannot set the optional access authority individually. ※ In the case of some apps, individual consent functions may not be provided, and access rights may be revoked in the following ways. ▶ How to revoke access After consenting to access, you can reset or revoke access as follows. [Operating system 6.0 or higher] Settings> Application management> Select the app> Permissions> Select consent or withdraw access rights [Operating system less than 6.0] Upgrade the operating system to revoke access or delete apps * Gameville official website: https://www.withhive.com * Gameville official Facebook community: https://www.facebook.com/gamevilfan/?pnref=story * Contact Gameville 1: 1: https://m.withhive.com/customer/inquire [12.5.1 업데이트] - 버그 수정

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