#Oreshnik IRBM

[jornalgeopolitico]

Oreshnik IRBM: O que sabemos e o que não sabemos

Artigo escrito por

Dmitry Stefanovich

Pesquisador do Centro de Segurança Internacional, Instituto de Economia Mundial e Relações Internacionais da Academia Russa de Ciências, cofundador do projeto Vatfor

Em novembro de 2024, Moscou deu dois passos importantes para fortalecer a dissuasão estratégica. Primeiro, os Fundamentos atualizados da Política de Estado sobre Dissuasão Nuclear foram aprovados e publicados. Em segundo lugar, um “teste de combate” do mais recente sistema de mísseis Oreshnik foi realizado com um ataque no território da Ucrânia. Este último será discutido em maiores detalhes.

Fundo

Aconteceu: a Rússia estava caminhando (e até mesmo empurrando) para o lançamento do Oreshnik por um bom tempo. Sem entrar muito fundo na história, há dois fatores principais que vale a pena focar.

Em 2019, o Tratado sobre Mísseis de Alcance Intermediário e Curto Alcance (Tratado INF) chegou ao fim. Depois disso, a Rússia impôs unilateralmente uma moratória sobre a implantação de tais sistemas. No entanto, durante todo esse tempo, os Estados Unidos têm desenvolvido, testado e até mesmo implantado temporariamente mísseis dessa classe, ignorando deliberadamente a moratória russa. Moscou reagiu a isso com contenção, o que foi percebido como fraqueza ou evidência de atraso tecnológico. Ao mesmo tempo, a Rússia anunciou o desenvolvimento de uma versão terrestre do míssil de cruzeiro Kalibr, bem como algo chamado sistema de mísseis hipersônicos de médio alcance baseado em terra. Com base nas declarações do Comandante-em-Chefe das Forças de Foguetes Estratégicos, General Karakaev, o trabalho nesses sistemas (pelo menos parte do Oreshnik) foi intensificado no ano passado, no verão de 2023. Talvez um dia descobriremos exatamente o que serviu como um incentivo adicional, mas por enquanto nos aventuraremos a assumir a resposta pelo valor de face: o catalisador foi a Operação Militar Especial (SMO). Como resultado, hoje uma linha inteira de armas relevantes é anunciada como estando perto da prontidão.

Foi o curso do SMO, ou melhor, as ações específicas dos membros do grupo de apoio da Ucrânia, que se tornaram a gota d'água que levou ao lançamento de combate do Oreshnik. Moscou repetidamente — e em todos os níveis — alertou que, se Kiev receber permissão para atacar profundamente o "antigo" território da Rússia com mísseis de longo alcance de fabricação ocidental, isso levará a uma escalada acentuada no conflito. Provavelmente, devido à falta de clareza na explicação das consequências específicas de casos passados ​​de ignorar tais avisos — e às vezes até mesmo o Comandante-em-Chefe Supremo teve que lidar com isso. Mesmo no caso Oreshnik, as explicações são dadas do mais alto nível — desta vez, o "Ocidente coletivo" decidiu tentar forçar os limites do que é aceitável. Considerações políticas domésticas dos EUA também desempenharam um papel: o desejo de demonstrar comprometimento em apoiar a Ucrânia e, ao mesmo tempo, reduzir a margem de manobra do governo Donald Trump.

Questões organizacionais

Antes de prosseguir com a descrição das características técnicas desta arma, é necessário prestar atenção a várias questões organizacionais. Agora sabemos que o Oreshnik é um míssil de alcance intermediário: ele também pode ter equipamento não nuclear e será colocado em serviço com as Forças de Foguetes Estratégicos. Mas como exatamente o dever de combate do novo sistema será organizado? Aparentemente, ele não precisa de “caravanas” e infraestrutura comparáveis ​​às necessárias para Yars e Topols. Em vez disso, o Iskander-M e as brigadas de mísseis correspondentes das forças terrestres podem atuar como um análogo aqui. Outra questão está relacionada ao sistema de comando e controle, incluindo a entrega de ordens de lançamento e a introdução de tarefas de voo. A analogia com mísseis “grandes”, com ICBMs com armas nucleares, é apropriada aqui? Outros “loops” C3 são usados? Como é (e se) a interação constante com agências de inteligência e tropas de reconhecimento é realizada? O fornecimento e a manutenção de ogivas especiais serão mais semelhantes à prática das Forças de Mísseis Estratégicos, ou são possíveis analogias com armas nucleares não estratégicas?

Afinal, como será organizada a preparação dos operadores? Claro, agora a indústria e os escritórios de design desempenham um papel significativo, mas no futuro, pelo menos, os cursos de reciclagem terão que ser abertos, e sim as especialidades correspondentes na Academia Militar das Forças de Foguetes Estratégicos. Ainda não está claro onde exatamente os regimentos com o novo sistema de mísseis serão incluídos — nas novas divisões de mísseis ou nas antigas? Onde os Oreshniks serão implantados — na Bielorrússia, como Alexander Lukashenko sugere, além dos Urais, no Extremo Oriente, no novo Distrito Militar de Leningrado?

Características técnicas

Agora algumas palavras sobre os “parafusos e rebites”. Voltemos às declarações oficiais e aos materiais de vídeo disponíveis publicamente, dos quais sabemos mais ou menos com segurança o seguinte:

O Oreshnik está equipado com uma carga útil do tipo MIRV com ogivas hipersônicas, incluindo variantes não nucleares.

Provavelmente, as próprias ogivas podem ter cargas úteis de fragmentação.

Talvez Oreshnik esteja equipado com veículos de reentrada com asas planas, mas, na verdade, as ogivas de MRBMs e ICBMs já se aproximam do alvo em velocidade hipersônica. Ao mesmo tempo, “armas hipersônicas” são geralmente aquelas que são capazes de se mover e manobrar dentro da atmosfera por um tempo significativo na velocidade apropriada.

O poder destrutivo da carga não nuclear ainda não é impressionante em termos de escala de devastação (claro, não há nenhuma conversa sobre pulverizar Yuzhmash em átomos), mas, aparentemente, torna possível realizar ataques eficazes em instalações subterrâneas — se, de fato, for possível obter precisão suficiente.

Para os sistemas de defesa de mísseis, Oreshnik, é claro, é um alvo difícil (talvez o mais difícil até o momento) devido à sua velocidade e à suposta manobrabilidade terminal das ogivas. No entanto, com uma combinação bem-sucedida de circunstâncias, qualquer coisa pode ser interceptada, incluindo este míssil.

O nome “árvore” do produto sugere um parentesco com o Topol e, possivelmente, o hipersônico “Anchar”, desenvolvido pelo Instituto de Tecnologia Térmica de Moscou. O ICBM “Light” “Rubezh”, o projeto pausado no final da última década, é frequentemente mencionado como um dos supostos ancestrais do sistema Oreshnik.

O Oreshnik é provavelmente um foguete de propelente sólido, o que é geralmente a norma para esta classe de produtos modernos. O combustível e o míssil provavelmente devem ter um alto nível de perfeição técnica, embora possam ser inferiores aos futuros modelos ocidentais devido ao acesso limitado à base de elementos avançados.

O lançador é móvel e pode se assemelhar ao Pioner ou, digamos, aos antigos IRBMs soviéticos, o Skorost.

Perspectivas

A Rússia desenvolveu e testou um sistema de mísseis de combate de alcance intermediário capaz de atingir alvos dentro do continente europeu, tanto no modo não nuclear quanto no nuclear. O complexo, aparentemente, tem uma variante de carga útil hipersônica, então estamos novamente à frente dos EUA: seu “Dark Eagle” ainda não foi testado com sucesso em um lançador padrão. Claro, China e Irã têm mísseis semelhantes, embora sem múltiplas ogivas.

Como o adversário pode responder? No contexto do SMO, é improvável que haja medidas drásticas, mas somos lembrados claramente da ameaça de agravamento das hostilidades. Além disso, demonstramos a possibilidade de continuar a escalada na fase pré-nuclear, tanto dentro do teatro de operações existente quanto além. No entanto, o limite nuclear também foi ligeiramente reduzido.

Em um sentido mais global, espera-se que as consequências sejam muito sérias, e cenários positivos e negativos são possíveis. O melhor resultado seria uma troca substancial de opiniões com os EUA sobre a “moratória pós-INF” e uma restrição unilateral paralela de implantar mísseis de alcance intermediário na Europa.

No entanto, uma corrida armamentista cada vez mais acelerada — tanto ofensiva quanto defensiva — também é possível. Na Europa, há algum tempo, há conversas sobre a necessidade de desenvolver seus próprios mísseis de longo alcance lançados do solo para não depender dos americanos nessa questão. Na França, as conversas são sobre a conveniência de uma nova implantação de mísseis balísticos lançados do solo, embora com alcances na região de 1000 km. Também há conversas sobre a reutilização dos locais US Aegis Ashore na Romênia e Polônia para combater o arsenal de mísseis russo. Também podemos esperar o aparecimento das baterias de defesa antimísseis US THAAD na Europa, embora os Estados Unidos não tenham o suficiente delas para outros teatros neste momento.

Em vez de um epílogo

A Europa se aproximou da virada do primeiro quarto do século XXI nas condições de um conflito armado de alta intensidade e uma nova crise de mísseis. Ainda é difícil prever se nós e nossos vizinhos sairemos disso sem perdas, mas a única maneira de interromper as tendências atuais só pode ser abordar preocupações legítimas no campo da segurança militar. Caso contrário, enfrentaremos anos e anos de uma corrida armamentista e uma vida em um barril de pólvora, pronto para explodir a qualquer momento sem motivos adicionais.

[eltristan]

I see the tards still arguing ICBM or IRBM when the reality is that it's the exact same missile, the only difference is payload fraction -- if it had only one warhead, just ⅙ of the 6-warhead MRV, the Oreshnik would be able to use it's high TWR to strike all of Europe for sure. I didn't do the trajectory math but the more time it spends in the higher atmosphere, the faster and further it flies (kinda exponentially). Really no reason it can't be used strike the US, satisfying the ICBM criteria if Russia don't mind a smaller warhead -- that's just basic rocket math.

:-/

Today, Ukraine became the first. The first country in the world against which an intercontinental ballistic missile was used.

let's goooo незламний народе first in everything amirite -----------------------------------

no one cares

I don't care what you say. This is the harsh truth. No one gives a fuck if our nation lives or dies.

To use intercontinental missile to strike Dnipro. That's gotta be the most ridiculously expensive temper tantrum ever.

[head-post]

Russia’s strike on Pivdenmash plant with hypersonic non-nuclear missile follows US moves, Putin says

Russia launched a new intermediate-range, non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile, targeting the PA Pivdenmash Machine-Building Plant in the city of Dnipro, president Vladimir Putin stated.

Initially, Ukrainian officials said Russian forces had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile. However, it was an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh missile, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed at a briefing on Thursday. She also confirmed that the US was “briefly�� notified before the launch, according to ABC News.

Meanwhile, Putin declared in a rare address to the nation that Russian forces had successfully tested the latest Oreshnik IRBM on Thursday. The Russian leader also stated that the strike on the Pivdenmash plant was a response to the Biden administration’s recent decision to grant Ukraine permission to deploy US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles to hit targets within Russia.

On 19 November, with six US-made ATACMS missiles, and on 21 November, in a combined missile strike with UK-made Storm Shadow and US-made HIMARS systems, military facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation – in the Bryansk and Kursk regions – were targeted.

Noting that Russia was ready to resolve disputed issues through negotiations, Putin also emphasised that Moscow would “respond decisively and in a mirror-like manner” to any escalation.

From that moment on, as we have repeatedly emphasised previously, the regional conflict in Ukraine, previously provoked by the West, has acquired elements of a global character. We are developing intermediate- and shorter-range missiles as a response to US plans to produce and deploy intermediate- and shorter-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

On Tuesday, he approved the updated nuclear doctrine to allow Russia to respond to any massive strike on its territory with conventional weapons, including drones.

I repeat, we are conducting combat tests of the Oreshnik missile system in response to the aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia. The issue of further deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles will be decided by us depending on the actions of the United States and its satellites.

Read more HERE

[darkmaga-returns]

We’re in the Second Cold War. Those thinking otherwise have probably been living under a rock. Unfortunately, that rock won’t save anyone and we know it by the change in rhetoric. Namely, in previous decades, nuclear war was a mere hypothesis in the minds of most people, an extremely unlikely prospect that we could casually discuss, theorize on, contemplate as to how it would play out, etc. It truly is meticulous work, involving an enormous amount of moving parts and it could even be argued it’s fun, as evidenced by numerous mass media that use it as their main trope. Whether it’s a post-apocalyptic scenario, a modern war that got out of control or something along those lines, it’s quite prominent in movies, TV shows, video games, etc. Now, imagine fan favorites such as the Mad Max franchise, Fallout or Metro series, certain Call of Duty titles, etc. suddenly becoming a reality. It’s certainly a scary thought.

Well, thanks to the warmongering oligarchies in Washington DC and Brussels, this is exactly the scenario we’re facing. And if you think it’s too far-fetched or even impossible, think again. Leaders and top-ranking officials of the most powerful NATO countries openly support long-range strikes on Russia using Western-sourced missiles, operated by American, British and other NATO personnel. This comes despite President Vladimir Putin’s crystal clear warning that Russia would consider the world’s most vile racketeering cartel a party to the conflict and that it would respond accordingly. Worse yet, even after Moscow used a conventionally armed ICBM/IRBM in response to these NATO attacks, the political West only keeps escalating. The purpose of this text is to understand what’s at stake and that if the warmongers, war criminals, plutocrats and kleptocrats have their way, the world will pay the ultimate price.

Let’s imagine that Russia decides it’s sick and tired of over three decades of NATO’s lies, deceit, crawling invasion and now nearly three years of direct attacks and total war. The Neo-Nazi junta keeps launching these Western-sourced missiles and the Kremlin knows who’s behind it. Do you think Russia would use thermonuclear weapons in Ukraine, a land that has belonged to it for over 1,200 years, against the people it considers ethnic Russians (even though they reject this notion)? Even if we ignore these basic facts, the answer is no, as it would be suicidal to fire a nuclear weapon at an area so close to home. The fallout could easily reach any Russian and/or Belorussian territory. Thus, it can be expected to see Moscow use more “Oreshniks” and similar missiles. However, Russia’s updated strategic doctrine also allows the use of such weapons against targets beyond NATO-occupied Ukraine.

[frogblast-the-ventcore]

Footage of Russian 'Oreshnik' IRBM strike on Dnipro from 2 days ago. 6 warheads each with 6 submunitions, based on looking at the footage frame by frame. Likely a variant of the RS-26 'Rubezh'. It is an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile, it is NOT an ICBM. Note that Russian claims of this missile being "hypersonic" are a misnomer, as ALL ballistic missiles are hypersonic by design.

There are no explosions in the footage, which to me indicates the missile was loaded with inert warheads and/or decoys, likely as a test/statement of "look what we can do" more than as a way to majorly damage anything.

It should also be noted that Russia notified the US of the launch, as they do with any launch of a long range ballistic missile, though the US was only given 30 minutes notice.

[cyberbenb]

Belarus Weekly — 2024 in review: Drone incursions, deepening alliance with Russia, totalitarianism

In 2024, Belarus, under dictator Alexander Lukashenko, continued to descend into totalitarianism, imprisoning people at will and providing full-fledged support to Russia in its brutal all-out war.Lukashenko signed a number of bilateral treaties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, helping him facilitate the major East-West prisoner swap that saw spies and murderers return safely to Russia. Lukashenko also reignited a major migrant crisis at the country’s western borders, effectively making it harder for people to leave the state.Here is the round-up of key events that happened in Belarus in 2024.

Subscribe to the Newsletter Belarus Weekly Join us

Lukashenko further solidifies military allegiance to Russia2024 ends with the Russian and Belarusian dictators, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, signing a security treaty after Russia amended its nuclear doctrine to include Belarus under its nuclear umbrella. The amended doctrine also lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. While the treaty’s text was not released, Putin said it outlined mutual defense obligations, including nuclear capabilities, and experts suggest it may allow Russia to set up bases in Belarus and deepen Belarusian involvement in the war.Putin also said that the treaty provides for the protection of each other’s constitutional order, a notable remark after Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov promised Moscow would help Lukashenko quell any potential disorder during the 2025 presidential elections. Following the signing, Lukashenko requested Russia to station Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) in Belarus, just as he did with the nuclear weapons in 2023. Putin agreed but postponed any such move to the second half of 2025. The year saw another attempt of nuclear blackmail by Russia — with Belarus in a supporting role. In May, the Belarusian Defense Ministry conducted snap inspections of tactical nuclear weapons launchers, which, while capable of carrying nuclear warheads, also double as conventional weapons, once again providing no confirmation that any Russian nuclear weapons are present in Belarus. The next major joint military drills on Belarusian soil are scheduled for September 2025. The NATO Summit declaration warned early in 2024 that the deepening Russia-Belarus military integration destabilizes the region.Tensions rose and fell throughout the summer on the Belarus-Ukraine border, as Minsk accused Ukraine of military buildups in late June, while Kyiv claimed Belarus concentrated forces near the border in August following Ukraine’s operation to capture parts of Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Lukashenko also provided Putin with a helping hand during POW exchanges this year. In June, he released five Ukrainians who had been jailed in Belarus on politically motivated charges in exchange for Metropolitan Jonathan of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during an official welcoming ceremony for delegations' heads at the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct. 23, 2024. (Maxim Shemetov / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)In August, German citizen Rico Krieger, sentenced in Belarus to capital punishment for allegedly planning an act of terrorism, was released as a part of a swap that returned Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov from prison in Germany. No Belarus opposition figures were released as part of the exchange. At least 19 other foreign nationals remain behind bars in Belarus. They might be used in future prisoner swaps. Meanwhile, Belarus is growing more and more dependent on Russia economically. Relying on reduced oil prices, Russian loans and Russian markets for Belarusian exports, Lukashenko has had to deepen integration with Russia. Following Trump’s electoral victory, the official Minsk actively seeked a seat at the negotiations table between Russia and Ukraine and security guarantees for itself. Political analysts said the moves are prompted by Lukashenko’s desire to restore his international legitimacy, but also by his wish for a counterbalance to his dependence on Russia. Russian combat-drone incursions became an everyday reality in BelarusOpen-source intelligence project Belarusian Hajun reported 356 Russian drone violations of Belarusian airspace between July and Dec. 18. The count keeps rising, undermining Lukashenko’s earlier promise of a “peaceful sky.”From July, the incursions began to rise sharply, peaking in November with 38 stray drones recorded in Belarusian airspace in one night. One combat UAV crashed without causing casualties but leading to the arrest of a witness. The Belarusian military reportedly downed drones only twice.The drones, targeting Ukraine, cross from Russia and are reportedly diverted by Ukrainian electronic warfare. Minsk has largely ignored Russian incursions and never publicly objected. Lukashenko, meanwhile, accused Ukraine of provocations, claiming it was Kyiv that had sent drones into Belarus. Moldova prepares for harsh winter, as Russian-occupied part of country runs out of gasMoldova enacted a state of emergency, as the country gears up for an energy crisis at the start of 2025 following the end of Ukraine’s obligations to transport Russian gas through its territory. Moldova, and especially the country’s breakaway region of Transnistria, will be hit the hardest followin…The Kyiv IndependentPaula ErizanuIron Curtain continues to descend on Belarus’s western borders As Russia and Belarus continued to send migrants across the border into the European Union, bordering states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — announced the Baltic Defense Line in January. Meanwhile, Poland launched its 2.5-billion “Shield East” to bolster its borders with Belarus and Russia with anti-drone surveillance and fortifications on the ground. Lithuania is also investing $1.1 billion in a military base close to the Lithuania-Belarus border to house up to 4,000 combat-ready German troops — the first deployment of German troops abroad since World War II.Russia-aligned Hungary remains the only EU state maintaining ties with Belarus. Its Foreign Affairs Minister Peter Szijarto visited Minsk in 2024, calling for sanctions to be lifted. Hungary also relaxed its migration legislation to allow Belarusians and Russians to work and live in the country, raising EU concerns. Meanwhile, the EU pledged 170 million euros to fortify the union’s borders as Belarus and Russia escalated their “hybrid warfare” by channeling migrants with Russian visas into the union.Russia buys acceptance with cash, plunging economy into uncertaintyFor Russia’s military recruiters, money talks. In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled the federal signing-on bonus for contract soldiers to 400,000 rubles ($3,850) — over five times the country’s average monthly wage. Regional governments are expected to top this up further, although th…The Kyiv IndependentKatie Marie DaviesFollowing the killing of a Polish soldier patrolling the border in May, Polish authorities reinstated a 200-meter-deep buffer zone along the country’s border and pledged about $375 million to modernize its 190-kilometer border fence with Russia and Belarus, erected in 2021.Poland also sought Chinese intervention in the crisis, citing complications for international trade under the Chinese Belt and Road initiative — an overland trade route to Europe involving Belarus. While these measures have temporarily slowed the pace of the crisis, they haven’t resolved it: In 2024, Poland reported thwarting 30,000 illegal border crossing attempts. The cross-border crisis reportedly took 59 lives between January and October 2024.  In the wake of the migrant crisis, the U.S. State Department designated Belarus as a state sponsor of human trafficking. The standoff between the eastern EU member states and Belarus is a setback for democratically leaning Belarusians abroad and within the country. Out of 14 border crossings between the EU and Belarus, only five remained in operation, after Lithuania shut down two more in March. Leaving Belarus now takes hundreds of dollars in visa fees and hours, sometimes days, to cross the border via one of the remaining checkpoints. Furthermore, Lithuania has tightened restrictions on Belarusian migrants, citing security concerns, leading to a decline in the number of Belarusian residents for the first time in four years. Latvia has banned Belarus-registered vehicles on its territory. Lukashenko gears up for seventh term as president, no sign he will ever step downBelarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko spent much of 2024 preparing to extend his 30-year streak in power with a seventh consecutive term as president.In February, Belarus held tightly controlled parliamentary and local elections. The voting, condemned by the West and dismissed as a farce by the country’s opposition, was viewed as a dress rehearsal for the presidential race, the first since the sham presidential vote in 2020 caused widespread public protests.  Following rigged parliamentary elections, the All-Belarus People’s Assembly convened for the first time in a new capacity as the extra-governmental body. Despite its grand name, the body is increasingly viewed as a “decor” for the Lukashenko regime — presenting the illusion of distributed power, while Lukashenko remains in sole control as the country’s dictator.Members of the Belarusian diaspora displaying white-red-white opposition flags as they gather at Krakow’s Market Square for the Day of Solidarity with Belarus rally, on Aug. 9, 2024, in Krakow, Lesser Poland Voivodeship, Poland. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)The latest presidential elections are scheduled for Jan. 26, 2025, nearly half a year earlier than is stipulated in Belarusian election law. The Belarusian Central Election Committee (CEC) announced on Dec. 23 that the incumbent, the heads of three loyalist parties — Aleh Haidukevich, Alexander Hizhnyak, Siarhei Syrankou — as well as a spoiler candidate, representing so-called “constructive opposition,” Hanna Kanapatskaya, would be allowed to run.The campaign takes place in a sterilized political environment with raging repressions. All but four political parties have been liquidated, and those that remain are loyal to the regime. Independent media have been dissolved or forced into exile, and branded “extremists.” The only remaining point of discussion now, political analysts say, is what percentage the Election Committee will “allocate” to Lukashenko on Jan. 26, 2025. Having no winning strategy, between calling for boycotting the election and voting against all candidates, Belarus’s exiled opposition has focused on campaigning internationally for the non-recognition of the sham election’s results. As the election date nears, Belarusian law enforcers have intensified intimidation, arresting and harassing dissidents. Belarusian authorities have also partially blocked YouTube and VPN services during major opposition events throughout the year, and Lukashenko admitted he would not shy away from shutting down the Internet completely if unrest arises during the vote.Belarusian soldiers fighting for Ukraine say time is running out for their brother-in-arms extradited to BelarusIn Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus, helping to defend Ukraine against Russia gets you labeled as a terrorist. Vasil Verameichyk, a Belarusian who enlisted in Ukraine’s Armed Forces just four days after Russia launched its all-out war, was detained on Nov. 13 in Vietnam in a suspected covert operatio…The Kyiv IndependentKate TsurkanDespite pardons, the situation with political prisoners in Belarus remains direIn 2024, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko began to pardon political opponents, sparking speculation about his motives — which ranged from seeking sanctions relief and restoring relations with the West, to election strategy. The gesture did not imply any political reconciliation, as over 220 jailed Belarusians received political prisoner status over the same time. As I write this roundup, 1,294 officially recognized political prisoners remain behind bars, with the actual number likely much higher due to the authorities’ obstruction to reporting by human rights groups.Three prisoners — Ihar Lednik, Aliaksandr Kulinich, and Dmitry Shletgauer — have died in custody, bringing the total number of deaths of political prisoners since 2020 to seven. Eight high-profile prisoners, including 2020 presidential candidates Viktar Babaryka and Siarhei Tsikhanouski, the long-time opposition politician Mikalai Statkevich, and RFE/RL journalist Ihar Losik, have been held incommunicado for over a year now.Solidarity efforts in support of the prisoners and their families have been criminalized.Throughout the year, police raids also targeted diaspora groups, exiled journalists’ homes, and political activists in and out of the country.2024 was the darkest and most repressive year for the Belarusian media, with the number of jailed journalists jumped from 32 to 45. Journalists are facing in absentia trials and repeated convictions, the Viasna Human Rights Center notes. Reporters Without Borders placed Belarus 167th out of 180 in its annual Press Freedom ranking, and among the world’s four biggest jailers of journalists in 2024. Belarus hunts down exiled opponentsForeign countries are no safe haven for the opponents of the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. A former member of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, a volunteer unit fighting for Ukraine, was extradited to Belarus from Vietnam in December, facing charges that could lead to his execution.Meanwhile, Belarusian activist Andrei Hniot narrowly escaped extradition from Serbia at the request of the Belarusian office of Interpol. He was incarcerated for over a year. Detentions at Belarus’s request also occurred in Armenia, but didn’t lead to extraditions due to a political conflict between the two countries. Sweden announced it would reexamine asylum applications from Belarusians after a Belarus citizen was extradited to Belarus and reportedly imprisoned soon after.Over 3,000 Belarusian activists, politicians, and journalists were added to Russia’s wanted lists. Russia and Belarus also created joint lists of “extremists,” which are used to persecute opponents of the authorities.Opponents physically out of reach of Lukashenko’s regime are subjected to in absentia trials. At least 112 Belarusian politicians and activists have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms and seizure of property without ever setting foot in a courtroom to defend themselves. Lukashenko may face ICC arrest warrant following Lithuania’s request to courtLithuania has asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s alleged crimes against humanity, including mass deportation and persecution. Following the 2020 election, a regime crackdown forced over 300,000 Belarusians out of the country of 9.5 million. The Lithuanian authorities believe this might constitute a crime of mass deportation and have requested that the ICC hold Lukashenko accountable. While the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan has confirmed the referral by Lithuania, no other countries have joined the effort — unlike in the ICC case against Russian President Vladimir Putin, against whom an arrest warrant was issued in 2023.‘You’ll die here’ – Belarusian political prisoners recount experiences ahead of Lukashenko’s reelectionBelarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, is looking to reelect himself for the seventh time. In the run-up to the January 2025 presidential elections, Lukashenko has pardoned prisoners convicted of extremism, claiming that it was a “humane gesture” toward those…The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan Source : https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-2024-in-review-drone-incursions-deepening-alliance-with-russia-totalitarianism/

[persiamedie]

Putin Deployed The World's Most Powerful IRBM ORESHNIK At The Border Wit...

[andrewtheprophet]

Russia mulls attacking Ukraine with Oreshnik nuclear-capable missile this weekend, Revelation 16

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2023. (Oleksii Filippov/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images) Kateryna Hodunova Russia is considering launching an Oreshnik nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) once again at Ukraine this weekend, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Dec. 13, citing an unnamed representative of the…

[yespat49]

Le missile IRBM russe Oreshnik rendra-t-il visite à l’Occident ?

par Ben Fofana Orban a eu un entretien avec son homologue russe il y a deux jours. S’il affirme, après sa conversation avec Poutine, que la guerre d’Ukraine a pris un tour dangereux, il vaudrait mieux le prendre au sérieux. Car après une période d’accalmie qu’on a pris pour de la sagesse du côté de l’occident, l’Ukraine vient de reprendre ses bombardements sur le territoire russe à l’aide…

[cheboparners-blog]

„Putin befiehlt ‚Oreshnik‘ IRBM in höchster Alarmbereitschaft, was westl...

[abhrodeepnag-posts]

Thursday's strike on a weapons factory in Dnepropetrovsk marked the first use of a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), according to Russian President Vladimir Putin

The Oreshnik, ‘Hazel,’ travels at Mach 10 and can reach anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes.

[darkmaga-returns]

Hal Turner is reporting

Russian Aerospace forces have begun preparation for possibly the largest air strikes since the beginning of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

Without going into details which might compromise sources and methods, I can report the sudden and shear scope of clearly preparatory activities is something that has not been seen since the darkest times of the Cold War.

This isn't some maintenance surge, this is actual FULL arming-up of many, MANY, aircraft. Intel reports are calling this prep work "extremely aggressive." US spy satellites have also seen imagery which leads the US to conclude the world could also see the launch of multiple ICBM/IRBM "Oreshnik" for the first time.

Imagery and human intel reliably report 20+ "Oreshnick" missiles are currently in operation and ready for firing.

No reliable time-frame estimate was made available to me, but I was told "Not long from now. Not long at all."

[head-post]

Putin offered West to hold missile “tech duel”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking on special annual conference dubbed Direct Line, stated that European air defence systems were not capable of shooting down Oreshnik missiles, according to Russian media.

If Western experts believe [that the Oreshnik can be shot down], then let them propose (…) to conduct some kind of technological experiment, a high-tech duel of the XXI century. Let them determine some object to hit, let’s say, in Kyiv, concentrate all their air defence and missile protection forces there, and we will strike there with Oreshnik [missiles]. And see what happens.

Putin summarised the annual results during a large press conference combined with the Direct Line on Thursday, 19 December. He began his speech with the economy, emphasising that “the situation with it in Russia is normal.”

Russia’s economy grew by 3.6 per cent last year and could reach 4 per cent this year, according to the president. However, he also warned of possible challenges related to global inflation.

Elvira Nabiullina, governor of Russia’s central bank, reported inflation at 9.2-9.3 per cent. Meanwhile, wages rose by 9 per cent “in real terms, minus inflation,” Putin stressed, referring to the national average.

Generally, the situation is stable and secure.

On 21 November, Putin said that Russian forces had struck the city of Dnipro with Oreshnik, an experimental intermediate-range ballistic (IRBM) missile. The strike came in retaliation for the US-authorised use of long-range missiles by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to attack deep inside Russia.

Read more HERE

[cyberbenb]

Russia mulls attacking Ukraine with Oreshnik nuclear-capable missile this weekend, FT reports

Russia is considering launching an Oreshnik nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) once again at Ukraine this weekend, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Dec. 13, citing an unna Source : kyivindependent.com/russia-co…

[cyberbenb]

Russia may launch new Oreshnik missile against Ukraine in 'coming days,' US intelligence says

Russia may launch its new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the second time “in the coming days,” the Associated Press (AP) reported on Dec. 11, citing an unname Source : kyivindependent.com/russia-ma…

[cyberbenb]

Russia’s Oreshnik strike aftermath was a carefully orchestrated psyop, media reports

The media blitz following Russia’s strike on Dnipro with a new type of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Nov. 21 was a carefully staged stunt designed to scare off the West, the Moscow Ti Source : kyivindependent.com/oreshnik-…