#OPEC President

[larryhappiday]

Tragicomedy of Diezani Madueke and Her Rear Admiral Husband

In this article, Pastor Ngozi Hippolytus Asoya takes a critical look at the the arguments for and against name change and concludes that both parents should be conscious of the damage they are doing to the mental health of their offsprings. Divorcing a spouse is considered the end of a relationship but the case of Diezani Madueke and her former husband, Alison Madueke, a retired chief of naval…

[hezigler]

How Joe Biden 'broke OPEC' and rewrote the rules for oil trading.

[glamnessaaumisc]

FUN AMERICA FACTS!

The US invented the Navy. The first boat was invented by Massachusetts native John Boat, who made boats so he could bring Christopher Columbus over.

The first Pilgrim to arrive at Plymouth Rock was Scott Pilgrim, who was famous for fighting the world. This fight is commonly known as World War I.

People know about the Lincoln and the Jefferson memorials, but few know about the 42 other memorials hidden all around the United States. Can you find them all?

Oil is grown on American soil and then exported around the world so other countries can dig it up themselves. This is known as OPEC, which stands for Oil Places Everywhere, Crazy! (Huh?)

Atlanta native Joey Steele was the second President of the Soviet Union. The Russians, humiliated that they elected a capitalist pig from the West, posthumously changed his name to Joseph Stalin, but do not deny he was born in Georgia.

Hurricane, Utah is technically the only state due to a legal loophole. The only reason we recognize 50 states is because that is how it has always been.

The least populous state in America is West Dakota.

Slavery was only banned in 2015 because they discovered the 13th Amendment had a typo all that time and "slavery" was misspelled as "slovery," thus invalidating the document. You can sue the government for making you think you weren't allowed to own slaves. Try it!

Few people know about the Understates. Go there.

There is a document hidden in an abandoned steel mill in North Carolina. Find it and you will legally own Mississippi.

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this New York Times story:

President Trump’s tariffs are posing a major barrier to his plans to expand U.S. oil production — or, in his words, “drill, baby, drill.”

Since the tariffs were announced last week, oil prices have fallen to hover around $60 per barrel, a nearly four-year low, Rebecca Elliott reported. At this price, fossil fuel companies will most likely re-examine their plans.

“That is really a psychological and financial threshold for a lot of the industry,” she told me. “Below that level, you start getting wells that are no longer economic to drill.”

Oil companies are being squeezed by both rising costs and falling prices. Tariffs on steel have pushed up the cost of new wells by 10 or 20 percent, according to some estimates. And oil prices are falling over concerns about a potential economic slowdown coupled with OPEC’s recently announced plans to increase production.

If prices stay low, or fall further into the $50 range, which more and more of the people Elliott spoke to think is possible, U.S. oil production could flatten out, or even decline, she said.

How will all of this affect the fight against climate change? While slower economic activity tends to lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions in the short term, it’s not clear whether that would outweigh the climate effects of a slowdown in building renewables like wind and solar.

The changes have oil and gas executives, who donated generously to the Trump campaign, privately seething, Elliott reported today.

[misfitwashere]

We thank you, Joe

Tonight is for you

Robert Reich

Aug 19, 2024

Friends,

Tonight’s opening of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago will be an opportunity for the Democratic Party and the nation to take stock of Joe Biden’s term of office and thank him for his service.

He still has five months to go as president, of course, but the baton has been passed.

Biden’s singular achievement has been to change the economic paradigm that reigned since Reagan and return to one that dominated public life between 1933 and 1980 — and is far superior to the one that has prevailed since.

Biden’s democratic capitalism is neither socialism nor “big government.” It is, rather, a return to an era when government organized the market for the greater good.

The Great Crash of 1929 followed by the Great Depression taught the nation a crucial lesson that we forgot after Reagan’s presidency: markets are human creations. The economy that collapsed in 1929 was the consequence of allowing nearly unlimited borrowing, encouraging people to gamble on Wall Street, and permitting the Street to take huge risks with other people’s money.

Franklin D. Roosevelt and his administration reversed this. They stopped the looting of America. They also gave Americans a modicum of economic security. During World War II, they put almost every American to work.

Subsequent Democratic and Republican administrations enlarged and extended democratic capitalism. Wall Street was regulated, as were television networks, airlines, railroads, and other common carriers. CEO pay was modest. Taxes on the highest earners financed public investments in infrastructure (such as the national highway system) and higher education.

America’s postwar industrial policy spurred innovation. The Department of Defense and its Defense Advanced Research Projects Administration developed satellite communications, container ships, and the internet. The National Institutes of Health did trailblazing basic research in biochemistry, DNA, and infectious diseases.

Public spending rose during economic downturns to encourage hiring. Antitrust enforcers broke up AT&T and other monopolies. Small businesses were protected from giant chain stores. Labor unions thrived. By the 1960s, a third of all private-sector workers were unionized. Large corporations sought to be responsive to all their stakeholders.

But then America took a giant U-turn. The OPEC oil embargo of the 1970s brought double-digit inflation followed by Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s effort to “break the back” of it by raising interest rates so high that the economy fell into deep recession.

All of which prepared the ground for Reagan’s war on democratic capitalism. From 1981 onward, a new bipartisan orthodoxy emerged that markets functioned well only if the government got out of the way.

The goal of economic policy thereby shifted from the common good to economic growth, even though Americans already well-off gained most from that growth. And the means shifted from public oversight of the market to deregulation, free trade, privatization, “trickle-down” tax cuts, and deficit reduction — all of which helped the monied interests make even more money.

The economy grew for the next 40 years, but median wages stagnated, and inequalities of income and wealth surged. In sum, after Reagan’s presidency, democratic capitalism — organized to serve public purposes — all but disappeared. It was replaced by corporate capitalism, organized to serve the monied interests.

**

Joe Biden revived democratic capitalism. He learned from the Obama administration’s mistake of spending too little to pull the economy out of the Great Recession that the pandemic required substantially greater spending, which would also give working families a cushion against adversity. So he pushed for and got the giant $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.

This was followed by a $550 billion initiative to rebuild the nation’s bridges, roads, public transit, broadband, water, and energy systems. He championed the biggest investment in clean energy sources in American history — expanding wind and solar power, electric vehicles, carbon capture and sequestration, and hydrogen and small nuclear reactors. He then led the largest public investment ever made in semiconductors, the building blocks of the next economy. Notably, these initiatives were targeted to companies that employ American workers.

Biden also embarked on altering the balance of power between capital and labor, as had FDR. Biden put trustbusters at the head of the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department. And he remade the National Labor Relations Board into a strong advocate for labor unions.

Unlike his Democratic predecessors Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, Biden did not reduce all trade barriers. He targeted them to industries that were crucial to America’s future — semiconductors, electric batteries, electric vehicles. Unlike Trump, Biden did not give a huge tax cut to corporations and the wealthy.

It’s also worth noting that, in contrast with every president since Reagan, Biden did not fill his White House with former Wall Street executives. Not one of his economic advisers — not even his treasury secretary — is from the Street.

The one large blot on Biden’s record is Benjamin Netanyahu. Biden should have been tougher on him — refusing to provide him offensive weapons unless Netanyahu stopped his massacre in Gaza. Yes, I know: Hamas began the bloodbath. But that is no excuse for Netanyahu’s disproportionate response, which has made Israel a pariah and endangered its future. Nor an excuse for our complicity.

***

One more thing needs to be said in praise of Joe Biden. He did something Donald Trump could never do: He put his country over ego, ambition, and pride. He bowed out with grace and dignity. He gave us Kamala Harris.

Presidents don’t want to bow out. Both Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson had to be shoved out of office. Biden was not forced out. He did nothing wrong. His problem is that he was old and losing some of the capacities that dwindle with old age.

Even among people who are not president, old age inevitably triggers denial. How many elderly people do you know who accept that they can’t do the things they used to do or think they should be able to do? How many willingly give up the keys to their car? It’s not surprising he resisted.

Yet Biden cares about America and was aware of the damage a second Trump administration could do to this nation, and to the world. Biden’s patriotism won out over any denial or wounded pride or false sense of infallibility or paranoia.

For this and much else, we thank you, Joe.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Mark Sumner at Daily Kos:

President Joe Biden is no longer a candidate for 2024. However, no one should be less than incredibly enthusiastic—and grateful—when it comes to his accomplishments during his term. Biden is simply the greatest progressive president of our lifetimes. Full stop. Biden pulled America from the death, despair, and economic hardships generated by Donald Trump's criminal mismanagement of the pandemic that was killing 20,000 Americans per week when he took office. He steered the nation around a recession that economists considered inevitable, generated a surge in manufacturing that is still just getting started, brought new business creation to record levels, broke records on creating jobs and reducing unemployment, and shored up the importance of unions as the heart of the middle class. 

He restored faith in America around the world, healed the rift Trump created with our allies by strengthening and expanding NATO, and kept faith with Ukraine as it struggled against an illegal and unprovoked invasion by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. He put America back into the fight against the climate crisis, oversaw record levels of new renewable energy, took serious steps to address long-festering environmental issues, steered U.S. auto manufacturing toward the future, and did it all while reaching record levels of oil production and destroying OPEC’s hold over the United States. He demonstrated compassion and took action to protect society's most vulnerable members in the face of rising Republican hate. He ushered in an era of declining crime, declining gun sales, and rising opportunity. 

[...] People are going to be driving on better roads, crossing safe bridges, and enjoying improved public facilities for years thanks to the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The American Rescue Plan not only provided the vaccine that pulled the nation through the worst of the pandemic, but kept money in people’s pockets, kept families in their homes, and kept businesses in business at a time when other economies around the world were suffering. Technology jobs and factories that had been bleeding away from the United States for decades came racing back thanks to the CHIPS and Science Act, and that same bill is stimulating basic research whose benefit will be felt for decades. The Inflation Reduction Act not only helped address its namesake issue, but provided funds for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and the protection of both farmlands and wild spaces. 

This is a far from exhaustive list. Biden accomplished more in the last three and a half years than any other president has done in two terms. He did it while never sinking into treating his political opponents as any less than his fellow Americans. He never surrendered his boundless faith in American institutions and our founding principles. And he did it while attending church each Sunday before visiting the graves of his first wife and two of his children, all lost to tragedy.

Joe Biden in his one term as President did a lot of good for America, as he helped get America out of the mess as a result of COVID and got several influential bills passed.

[nostalgicamerica]

I want the Billionaires to pay more in taxes. The money they hoard does not go back into the economy. Trickle Down Economics never worked. If Hunter Biden can get called on the carpet for his taxes then Trump should too. The President doesn't have control over the price of oil. OPEC does. Supply and demand dictate prices here and if OPEC chooses to cut production, that's where the blame lies. I want a meaningful Border Bill. Republicans voted against a Bill and Trump told them not to vote yes on that Bill saying that he will fix it when he gets into office. I don't want wars either but Trump says he'll let Putin do what he wants if he wants to invade a country. The Hunter Biden trial proved that the Justice System isn't rigged.

There is a lot to unpack here.

I want the Billionaires to pay more in taxes. The money they hoard does not go back into the economy. - Then change the tax code.

Trickle Down Economics never worked. - So what

If Hunter Biden can get called on the carpet for his taxes then Trump should too. - I don't even know what this f*cking means.

The President doesn't have control over the price of oil. OPEC does. - Under the last president we were energy independent and on Jan 20, 2020 the price of gas in my neck of the woods was $1.97. It is not that now.

I want a meaningful Border Bill. Republicans voted against a Bill and Trump told them not to vote yes on that Bill saying that he will fix it when he gets into office. - Republicans want illegals here, too. Just for different reasons. And republicans suck almost as much as democrats.

I don't want wars either but Trump says he'll let Putin do what he wants if he wants to invade a country. - Why is it our business what Vladimir does anywhere? I frankly don't care if Macron wants to invade Estonia. Not my concern. And, by the way, under the last president, there were no major wars.

The Hunter Biden trial proved that the Justice System isn't rigged. - This is how to say, "I'm a fucking retard" without using the words, 'I'm,' 'retard,' 'a,' or 'fucking.' If you can say that with a straight face you truly are a fucking retard and I pray you don't breed.

[mariacallous]

U.S. and global markets of all stripes delivered their verdict on U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, and it is devastating: Investors hate the new barriers to trade almost as much as corporate supply chain managers do.

By nearly every metric—U.S. and global stock and bond markets, the value of the dollar, or the price of oil—investors seem to expect the impact of Trump’s new tariffs to be a drag on growth, a boost to inflation, and especially bad news on both fronts for the United States.

Trump’s decision to levy the biggest tariffs in more than a century on all U.S. trading partners has especially unsettled U.S. stock markets, formerly a bellwether for Trump. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average opened with a loss of 1,500 points, or 3.6 percent. The broader S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq indices also were darkly red, with early declines of about 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

European markets fared only a little better (Europe was hit with a blanket tariff of 20 percent on all its exports to the United States), with steep declines in the German, French, and Swedish bourses. Asian markets, the first to open in the wake of Trump’s Wednesday announcement, also finished in the red, with particular losses in U.S. trade partners and allies such as Japan and South Korea.

Bond markets also reflected concerns about the Trump plan. Yields on benchmark U.S. debt fell to the lowest level in six months, a sign that investors are seeking any sort of safe haven. They are even flocking back to Europe’s gold standard, the German 10-year bond, which had been beaten up in recent weeks after the new German government announced a massively expansive fiscal package.

But the idea of a safe haven does not, oddly enough, extend to the U.S. dollar, which is down across a basket of global currencies, with especially sharp falls against major currencies including the euro, the yen, the British pound, and the Swiss franc. Normally, higher tariffs should serve to prop up the greenback, not abet its downfall (even if that is what Trump has sought all along).

The Chinese yuan, or renminbi, is only down slightly against the dollar but is something to keep an eye on: Beijing could let its currency slide further to take some of the sting out of new U.S. tariffs that cumulatively add up to at least 54 percent on the world’s biggest exporter.

The sliding dollar, even against what should be tariff tailwinds, is an indication that investors fear a weak U.S. economy as soon as Trump’s new tariffs start to bite. Indeed, J.P. Morgan, the investment bank, said that it now estimates a recession is likely. The Budget Lab at Yale figures the double-whammy of existing tariffs and those announced this week could knock almost a full percentage point off of U.S. GDP growth this year.

An even sharper demonstration of the fears of a global showdown are found in the price of crude oil, with benchmark grades in New York and London down about 7 percent on the day—at a time of shooting wars in the Middle East, including a stepped-up U.S. military campaign in one of the world’s critical energy corridors. Only part of that can be chalked up to a slightly accelerated increase in OPEC crude output.

Trump’s new tariffs raise the average rate of U.S. import duties to levels last seen more than a century ago, just about the time period he identified in his Wednesday Rose Garden speech as America’s true golden age. In addition to the growth impacts, Yale’s Budget Lab expects the tariffs to raise prices by a few percentage points this year, or in other words, a bill of about $3,800 for each household.

Most of the market reaction on Thursday to Trump’s decision to abandon a decades-old U.S. embrace of free trade can be chalked up to its potentially harmful consequences on growth, employment, and prices. (Congress is seeking to re-assert some of its long-delegated trade authority, with a bipartisan bill introduced Thursday in the Senate to give Congress a vote on new tariffs.)

But some of it may well reflect confusion or dismay at the way the Trump trade team determined tariff rates. After teasing so-called reciprocal tariffs that would partially address legitimate trade grievances, the administration instead produced what analysts described as arbitrary numbers that bear little or no relation to other countries’ actual tariff rates or trade policies. Trump’s Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) explained how it came up with those so-called reciprocal tariffs, which produced oddities such as 47 percent on Madagascar or 49 percent on Cambodia. 

The problem is that the methodology released by the USTR doesn’t appear to calculate any of the target countries’ actual trade or tariff policies. Instead, it simply seeks to figure out what level of tariffs would eliminate all trade deficits with every country, then cut those numbers in half. 

The list of countries Trump and his team targeted with tariffs included other oddities. Alongside the actual big U.S. trading partners, including China and the European Union, are a host of overseas territories belonging to Britain, France, and Australia—usually targeted with different rates than their home countries. 

The Falkland Islands, a British overseas territory, gets hit with a 41 percent tariff, while Norfolk Island, an appendage of Australia, faces a tariff rate three times higher than its home country. Perhaps the most bizarre: a 10 percent U.S. tariff that will target the Heard and McDonald Islands near Antarctica, an uninhabited Australian outpost mostly crowded with penguins.

[beardedmrbean]

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s capital and outlying provinces have faced rolling power blackouts for weeks in October and November, with electricity cuts disrupting people’s lives and businesses. And while several factors are likely involved, some suspect cryptocurrency mining has played a role in the outages.

Iran economy has been hobbled for years by international sanctions over its advancing nuclear program. The country’s fuel reserves have plummeted, with the government selling off more to cover budget shortfalls as wars rage in the Middle East and Tehran grapples with mismanagement.

The demand on the grid has not let up, however — even as Iranians stopped using air conditioners as the weather cooled in the fall and before winter months set in, when people fire up their gas heaters.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s value has rocketed to all-time highs after the U.S. election was clinched by Donald Trump. It hit the $100,000 mark for the first time last week, just hours after the president-elect said he intends to nominate cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins to be the next chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The surge has led some to suspect that organized cryptocurrency mining — sucking away huge amounts of power — has played a part in the outages in Iran.

“Unfortunately, some opportunistic and exploitative individuals use subsidized electricity, public networks and other resources for cryptocurrency mining without authorization,” Mostafa Rajabi, the CEO of Iran’s government-owned power company, said back in August.

Iran’s state energy company did not respond to a request for comment.

Power outages have come and gone in the past in Iran, which struggles with aging equipment at many of its plants. Over the summer, sustained blackouts struck industrial parks near Tehran and other cities. Then in October and November, rolling power cuts across Tehran’s neighborhoods became the norm in daylight hours.

Climate change has been blamed in part, with persisting droughts and less water running through Iranian hydroelectric dams.

Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered several power plants to stop burning mazut, a high-polluting heavy fuel common in the former Soviet Union countries. Tehran has used it in the past to make up the difference in electricity generation.

Fuel reserves, both in diesel and natural gas, also remain low even though Iran is an OPEC member and home to one of the world’s second-largest reserves of natural gas, behind only Russia. There’s been no explanation for the decision to keep those reserves low, though critics have suggested Iran likely sold the fuel to cover budget shortfalls.

For his part, Pezeshkian has said that he must “honestly tell the public about the energy situation.”

“We have no choice but to consume energy economically, especially gas, in the current conditions and the cold weather,” he said in mid-November. “I myself use warm clothes at home; others can do the same.”

Still, winter heating isn’t in full swing quite yet on Tehran — raising questions where the power is going.

In many poor and densely populated neighborhoods across the country, people have access to free, unmetered electricity. Mosques, schools, hospitals and other sites also receive free power.

And with electricity in general sold at subsidized rates, bitcoin processing centers have boomed. They require immense amounts of electricity to power specialized computers and to keep them cool.

Determining how much power is used up by mining is difficult, particularly as miners now use virtual private networks that mask their location, said Masih Alavi, the CEO of an Iranian-government-licensed mining company called Viraminer.

Also, miners have been renting apartments to hide their rigs inside of empty homes. “They distribute their machines across several apartments to avoid being detected,” Alavi said.

In 2021, one estimate suggested Iran processed as much as $1 billion in bitcoin transactions. That value likely has spiked, given bitcoin’s rise. Meanwhile, Iran’s blackouts began in earnest as bitcoin spiked from around $67,000 to over $100,000 in its historic rally.

Rajabi, the state electricity company CEO, said his firm would offer rewards of $725 for people to report unlicensed bitcoin farms.

The farms have caused “an abnormal increase in consumption, disruptions, and problems in power networks,” Rajabi said.

The amount of power used by some 230,000 unlicensed devices is equivalent, he said, to the entire power needs of Iran’s Markazi province — one of the country’s chief manufacturing sites.

Iranian officials and media have not linked bitcoin’s surge and the ongoing blackouts but the public has, with social media users resharing a video showing a massive bitcoin farm earlier this year uncovered in Iran. A voice off camera asks how it was possible the electrical company did not discover the farm sooner.

The U.S. Treasury and Israel have targeted bitcoin wallets that they’ve alleged are affiliated with operations run by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard to finance allied militant groups in Mideast war zones.

That suggests the Guard itself — one of the most-powerful forces within Iran — may be involved in the mining.

In contrast, Iranian media nearly every day report on individual mining operations being raided by police.

Iran may see bitcoin as a hedge against increased pressure from the incoming Trump administration and as regional allies are engulfed in turmoil, said Richard Nephew, an adjunct fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“The question for the economists inside Iran is do we trust this enough to fund the government,” said Nephew, who has long worked on Iran issues and sanction strategies in the U.S. government.

However, he cautioned against thinking of bitcoin as a magic bullet for Iran, particularly as bitcoin wallets can be targeted in sanctions.

“A pattern of behavior screams out to intelligence services,” Nephew said. “It screams out to bank compliance departments.”

[foreverlogical]

We have been seeing numerous stories in the media about how people support Donald Trump because he did such a great job with the economy. Obviously, people can believe whatever they want about the world, but it is worth reminding people what the world actually looked like when Trump left office (kicking and screaming) and Biden stepped into the White House.

Trump’s Legacy: Mass Unemployment

The economy had largely shut down in the spring of 2020 because of the pandemic. It was still very far from fully reopening at the point of the transition.

In January of 2021, the unemployment rate was 6.4 percent, up from 3.5 percent before the pandemic hit at the start of the year. A more striking figure than the unemployment rate was the employment rate, the percentage of the population that was working. This had fallen from 61.1 percent to 57.4 percent, a level that was lower than the low point of the Great Recession.

The number of people employed in January of 2021 was nearly 8 million people below what it had been before the pandemic. We see the same story if we look at the measure of jobs in the Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey. The number of jobs was down by more than 9.4 million from the pre-pandemic level.

We were also not on a clear path toward regaining these jobs rapidly. The economy actually lost 268,000 jobs in December of 2020. The average rate of job creation in the last three months of the Trump administration was just 163,000.

What the World Looked Like When Donald Trump Left Office

In the fourth quarter of 2020 the economy was still being shaped in a very big way by the pandemic. Most of the closures mandated at the start of the pandemic had been lifted, but most people were not conducting their lives as if the pandemic had gone away. We can see this very clearly in the consumption data.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and author’s calculations.

The figure above shows the falloff in consumption between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the fourth quarter of 2020 in some of the areas hardest hit by the pandemic. While overall consumption was down just 0.8 percent, there has been an enormous shift from services to goods.

Inflation-adjusted spending at restaurants was down by 21.5 percent, and much of this spending went for picking up food rather than sit-down meals. Spending at bars was down 47.7 percent. Spending at hotels and motels was down by 43.8 percent as people had hugely cut back travel. Air travel was down 52.4 percent.

Spending on football games, baseball games, and sports events was down by 68.3 percent. Spending on live concerts and other entertainment was down a bit less, at 67.4 percent. And movie going was down 92.7 percent.

The Story of Cheap Gas

Donald Trump and his supporters have often boasted about the cheap gas we had when he was in office. This is true. Gas prices did fall below $2.00 a gallon in the spring of 2020 when the economy was largely shut down, although they had risen above $2.30 a gallon by the time Trump left office. The cause of low prices was hardly a secret, demand in the U.S. and around the world had collapsed. In the fourth quarter of 2020 gas consumption was still 12.5 percent below where it had been before the pandemic.

In fact, gas prices likely would have been even lower in this period if not for Trump’s actions, which he boasted about at the time. Trump claimed to have worked a deal with Russia and OPEC to slash production and keep gas prices from falling further. The sharp cutbacks in production were a major factor in the high prices when the economy began to normalize after President Biden came into office since oil production cannot be instantly restarted.

The End of the Trump Economy Was a Sad Story

Donald Trump handed President Biden an incredibly damaged economy at the start of 2021. People can rightfully say that the problems were due to the pandemic, not Trump’s mismanagement, but the impact of the pandemic did not end on January 21. The problems associated with the pandemic were the main reason the United States, like every other wealthy country, suffered a major bout of inflation in 2021 and 2022.

It is often said that people don’t care about causes, they just care about results. This is entirely plausible, but the results in the last year of the Trump administration were truly horrible by almost any measure.

It may be the case that people are more willing to forgive Trump for the damage the pandemic did to the economy than Biden, but that is not an explanation based on the reality in people’s lives, or “lived experience” to use the fashionable term.

That would mean that for some reason people recognize and forgive Trump for the difficult circumstances he faced as a result of the pandemic, but they don’t with Biden. It would be worth asking why that could be the case.    

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Trade war triggers cautious revision of Brazil's inflation forecasts

Oil downturn expected to ease inflationary pressure as analysts await U.S. policy

Amid significant uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, economists are approaching the potential effects of the trade war on Brazil's 2025 inflation projections with caution. Initially, those who factor in these effects foresee a downward trend, primarily due to falling oil prices, which justifies a reduction in gasoline prices by Petrobras.

In the financial market, however, the reaction differs. While the median of forecasts for Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in the Focus survey for 2025 has remained steady at 5.56% since mid-February, the one-year implied inflation derived from NTN-B bonds has dropped by 0.91 percentage points since the last Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) meeting on March 14, now standing at 4.63%, according to data from the Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association (Anbima).

Since April 2, dubbed by Mr. Trump as “Liberation Day,” the most liquid Brent crude oil futures contract has fallen by 11.6% on the Intercontinental Exchange, to $65.85 from $74.49, nearing its lowest levels since 2021. This decline results from perceptions that the trade war will slow global growth, exacerbated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) intention to increase production this year.

Based on this, Pine Bank has reduced its IPCA forecast to 5.10% from 5.25% for this year. Meanwhile, LCA 4Intelligence adjusted its estimate from 5.60% to 5.50%, considering a “modest” 3% cut in refinery prices in the coming fortnight.

Continue reading.

[friday-911]

Trumpocalypse - 1/23/25

RISE RESIST REPEAT!!!

What we're covering

• Trump outlines economic plans: President Donald Trump delivered virtual remarks to the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos this morning, where he slammed his predecessor’s policies and said his presidency began a “revolution of common sense” as he warned global business leaders to make their products in the US or face tariffs.He also said he wants OPEC and Saudi Arabia to cut the cost of oil to help end the war in Ukraine.

• Immigration agenda: Trump’s crackdown on immigration is in full force. The acting secretary of defense directed 1,500 ground personnel to the southern border. A new Justice Department memo outlines plans to challenge sanctuary city laws by threatening to prosecute state and local officials who resist. The first hearing to challenge Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship is scheduled for this afternoon in Seattle.

• Cabinet confirmations: The Senate has scheduled a key procedural vote to advance the nomination of Pete Hegseth as defense secretary for this afternoon.This comes as the chamber’s committees continue to approve other Cabinet nominations on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, the House voted Wednesday to pass a GOP-led bill to require detention of undocumented migrants charged with certain crimes, handing an early legislative win for Trump.

-Stay safe and sane!

[ranwing]

A great man...

The media in the United States is now commemorating the life of former President Jimmy Carter, who died yesterday at the ripe age of 100. He was a one-term president whose administration was beset by multiple crises that he was assigned the blame for (even if in hindsight we recognize that he had little control over these events). He struggled with an oil embargo by OPEC and then the hostage crisis in Iran (hamstrung by negotiations done behind the scenes that would benefit Ronald Regan by having the hostages released after the election). At the same time, he spearheaded the Camp David Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and Egypt and made a lasting peace in the region a true possibility.

In the years after he left the presidency, Carter devoted himself to doing great public works. We all know about his work with Habitats for Humanity, where he and his wife personally helped to build over 4000 homes for those in need. His foundation waged a nearly complete victory over the Guinea worm, which was one of the leading causes of blindness in several African nations. He was a tireless advocate for democracy and won a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on behalf of free elections around the world. He continued to work for peace between Israel and Palestine, and was a prolific writer on matters of politics and faith. He was a true Christian, who lived humbly and separated from the Southern Baptist Convention over their doctrines about the role of women in the church. Unlike so many on the religious right, Carter's faith lead him to be an advocate for women, the LGBTQ+ community and people of all ethnicities.

I had the great privilege of getting to meet President Carter at a book signing years ago and found my appreciation of the man reaffirmed. He was kind and funny and generous to a fault. The world has lost both a great statesman and a great human being. He lived a life filled with purpose and love for his fellow man and now is united with his beloved wife Roslynn. I can only be grateful for the impact that he had on my life.

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from EcoWatch:

President Donald Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” call for a resurgence in United States oil production will be frustrated by the reluctance of Wall Street to approve another frenzy, according to shale bosses, reported the Financial Times.

U.S. oil and gas output during Trump’s second term will increase by less than 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy said, well below the nearly two barrels a day rise under Joe Biden.

“The incentive, if you will, to just drill, baby, drill… I just don’t believe that companies are going to do that,” said Wil VanLoh, chief executive of Quantum Energy Partners, one of the largest investors in shale, as the Financial Times reported.

“Wall Street will dictate here — and you know what? They don’t have a political agenda. They have a financial agenda… They have zero incentive to basically tell the management teams running these businesses to go and drill more wells,” VanLoh said.

This could be a big letdown for the new president, who is expecting a surge in oil supply to lower U.S. inflation by making fuel and goods less expensive.

“We will bring prices down… We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it,” Trump said during his inauguration speech.

At the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos on Thursday, Trump called on OPEC to bring down oil prices. However, lowering the price of oil and gas would reduce profits for shale companies, making them less likely to heed Trump’s agenda.

“Prices will be a bigger signal than politics,” said Ben Dell, managing partner at energy investment firm Kimmeridge, which owns shale assets in the Permian Basin in Texas, the most productive oilfield on the planet.

Oil production in the U.S. reached a record high in 2024, but the Energy Information Administration predicts output will only jump 2.6 percent this year to 13.6 million barrels a day before growing less than one percent the following year due to price pressures.

[blackpilledkremlintsarina5294]

April 16, 2008

Russian President Vladimir Putin writes on the guestbook at Libyan leader Moamer Gadhafi's destroyed residence in Tripoli. The house was destroyed by a US-led air raid in 1986. Putin arrived in Libya for a 24-hour visit expected to be dominated by talks over energy contracts and arms sales. Putin was immediately taken to Bab Azizia Palace, a sprawling complex where Kadhafi usually pitches his tent when in Tripoli. Putin is visiting the country at Gadhafi's invitation -- one of the Russian leader's final formal trips before he steps down on May 7. Arms sales to Tripoli and the clearing of Soviet-era debt may also be touched on during their talks, according to Russian government sources. The visit comes as Russia is trying to coordinate policy with other gas producing states, notably Algeria, and is promoting plans for an organization of gas producers similar to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Libya is a member.

[libertariantaoist]

News Roundup 12/4/2023 | The Libertarian Institute

Here is your daily roundup of today's news:

News Roundup 12/4/2023

by Kyle Anzalone

US News

Sen. Wyden Threatens to Block Vote on NSA, US Cyber Command Nominee. The Hill

Ukraine

Secretary of State Antony Blinken dismissed reports that the US was pushing Ukraine towards negotiating an end to the war with Russia during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers. At the summit, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine had a “de facto” NATO military. The Institute 

Ukraine Military Eye Proposal to Expand Conscript 100,000 New Soldiers. Boston Globe

US Official Says Washington Aims to Cut Russian Energy Exports By 50% By 2030. FT

Russia to Add 170,000 Soldiers to Armed Forces. TASS

Zelensky: Counteroffensive “Did Not Achieve the Desired Results.” Kyiv Indpendent

NATO Chief Stoltenberg: We Should Be Prepared for Bad News About Ukraine. Politico AWC

Ukrainian officials speaking to media outlets on Friday claimed that the CIA-backed Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) blew up trains on railways deep inside eastern Russia. AWC

China

Washington Will Expand AUKUS Accord to Include AI, Electronic Warfare and Quantum Technology. The Hill

China Says US War Ship Illegally Entered Chinese Waters. Yahoo

OPEC

Brazil Plans to Join OPEC+ Next Year. Yahoo

Korea

South Korea Scraps F-35 Damaged By Bird Strike. Yonhap

North Korea: Interference with Satellite Is a Declaration of War. The HillThe Institute

Israel

Washington Is Profoundly Concerned About Turkish Ties to Hamas. FT

IDF Chief Tells Blinken Military Operations in Gaza Will Take More Than a Few Weeks. AxiosAWC

Gallup Poll Finds Only 32% of Americans Support Biden’s Handling of Israeli War in Gaza. UPI

A report from +972 Magazine published on Thursday detailed how Israel is intentionally targeting civilians in Gaza as part of its war strategy even when Israeli forces know strikes will kill young children. AWC

NYT: Israel Knew About Hamas Attack a Year Before October 7. NYT

Israel Has Arrested More Than 270 Palestinians in Crackdown on Free Speech. Chicago Tribune

Tel Aviv has been relying on an AI Program dubbed the Gospel to select targets in Gaza at a rapid pace. In past operations in Gaza, the IDF ran out of targets to strike in the besieged enclave. AWC

The Financial Times reported speaking with sources who said that Israel plans to wage war on Gaza for over a year. In a little less than two months, Israel has killed at least 15,000 people, damaged 100,000 buildings, displaced 1.7 million Palestinians, and destroyed most of Gaza’s medical facilities. AWC

Israel Abuses Justice System to Target Minors and Break Up Families. LA Times

The Wall Street Journal published details about the White House’s secretive arms transfers to Israel since October 7. The US has provided Israel with 57,000 artillery shells and 15,000 bombs, including over 5,000 with 2,000-pound warheads. AWC

Doctors Without Borders Says Israel Responsible for Attack on Medical Convoy that Killed 2. DWB

Babies at Gaza Children’s Hospital Left to Die and Decompose After Israel Froced Hospital Staff to Evacuate. NBC News

Blinken Told Netanyahu the White House Will Begin Banning Violent Israeli Settlers from Entering US. Reuters 

Israel Withdraws Negotiators From Hostage Release Talks. AJ

Limited Number of Aid Trucks Reach Gaza After Israel Resumes Bombing. AJ

Sec Def Austin Says Israel Risks “Strategic Defeat” By Mass Civlian Killing in Gaza. VOA

Israeli Forces Operating Throughout Gaza: IDF. The Guardian 

Iran

The House on Thursday passed a bill that would force the president to permanently freeze $6 billion in Iranian funds that were briefly made available to Tehran as part of a prisoner swap deal. AWC

Syria

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two of its members stationed in Syria as advisors were killed by Israeli airstrikes, The Associated Press reported Saturday, citing the IRGC’s website. AWC

US Official Says Single Rocket Fired at Base in Syria. VOAAWC

US Strike in Syria Kills Five Iraqi Fighters. MEEAWC

Yemen

Houthis Launch Missiles and Drones at US War Ship and Commerical Vessels in Red Sea. Politico AWC

Read More