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theliberaltony · 6 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): At long last, the wait is over — former Vice President Joe Biden announced Thursday that he is officially running for president.

Biden enters the Democratic field as the polling front-runner and with some serious establishment credentials as both a long-time senator and former VP. But this doesn’t mean he’s a favorite to win. If anything, in a field with so many candidates, it’ll be hard for any one candidate to stand out and win over a significant chunk of voters. Which means that building a coalition and a base of support will be vital. So, how does Biden’s candidacy change the dynamics of the Democratic race? Let’s tackle this by talking through the following questions:

Which candidates are hurt by Biden’s decision to run?

Who is his biggest competition?

And, more generally, what does this mean for candidates looking to cobble together a winning coalition? How does Biden’s entry ease this or complicate it?

OK, let’s get started with question No. 1: Which candidates are hurt by Biden’s decision to run?

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Maybe almost everyone is negatively impacted in some way, or maybe almost everyone except Elizabeth Warren.

For the more moderate white Democrats, like Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, Biden is sort of running adjacent to their lane, if not actually in their lane.

He also has a lot of the black vote, so Biden’s candidacy complicates the ability of Kamala Harris and Cory Booker to win South Carolina.

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): For all the candidates who are making electability an implicit (O’Rourke, Jay Inslee) or explicit (Klobuchar, Tim Ryan) part of their campaigns, Biden is a very big threat. Plus, black voters find him appealing, which could hurt those candidates I just mentioned, but especially Booker and Harris.

natesilver: If you’re Bernie, now you can’t really call yourself the front-runner. And if Biden is getting 30 percent, maybe your 20 percent or 25 percent factional support isn’t going to be enough.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): But at the very least, Biden probably weeds out some of those guys like Ryan and Seth Moulton sooner rather than later, right? That is, if we’re thinking about the field winnowing at some point.

sarahf: Ryan just qualified for the debate stage though, Clare!

clare.malone: Big day in Youngstown.

natesilver: Ryan is the one guy who really seemed to be running on a Poor-Man’s-Version-of-Biden platform. Some of the other candidates who might have done that (e.g., Michael Bloomberg, Andrew Cuomo, Terry McAuliffe) didn’t run.

I think others, like Moulton and Eric Swalwell, are just running because they like doing TV.

And they aren’t really affected by Biden because they didn’t really have a chance to begin with. (If Moulton or Swalwell wins the Democratic nomination, feel free to throw this back in my face, Internet.)

sarahf: Well, as our colleague Nathaniel Rakich pointed out, Nate, Moulton and Swalwell don’t have that much to lose by running — so why not run?

clare.malone: I wonder who of the top-tier candidates Biden sees as his biggest competition? I was pretty surprised to see that he hired Sanders’s 2016 press secretary.

natesilver: Biden probably sees Bernie as competition, although to some extent welcome competition because Biden probably wins a one-on-one showdown with Bernie because he has broader support among both elites and regular voters.

sarahf: What will you all be looking for as a sign that Biden’s candidacy is making a dent in the support of these other contenders?

perry: Biden already leads among moderates, voters over 50 and black people. So I will be looking to see if those leads grow.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): I don’t know if it’s so much about a dent as about them never getting off the ground. For someone like Klobuchar, is she just going to remain stuck in the polls at 2 percent? Does O’Rourke never consistently get into double digits nationally?

sarahf: I saw some speculation on Twitter that the first 24 hours after his announcement will be crucial for Biden as a test of whether his first-day fundraising number can compete with other candidates’:

We'll know if @JoeBiden is a name recognition front runner, or a real front runner, when he posts those 24 hour fundraising numbers. He can't just match @BernieSanders, he needs to obliterate him. In a call to supporters yesterday, Biden acknowledged as much. https://t.co/cHgBljmkKk

— Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer (@RachelBitecofer) April 25, 2019

And on Friday, the campaign said it raised $6.3 million in the first 24 hours, which puts Biden ahead of both Sanders, who raised $5.9 million in his first 24 hours, and O’Rourke, who got $6.1 million.

perry: I actually don’t think fundraising is a great metric for Biden. That’s because he is getting more support from people who are moderate and black, which I don’t think necessarily is the type of person who gives money to candidates on Day 1.

clare.malone: Going after constituencies that are likely to be a bit more moderate is something that I think Biden will focus on. Another thing I thought was telling was this Spanish language ad he put out first thing on Thursday:

Hoy estoy anunciando mi candidatura para presidente de los Estados Unidos. Somos los Estados Unidos de America – y juntos no hay nada que no podamos hacer. Únete a nuestra campaña: https://t.co/9MBT8Qkyzd#Joe2020 pic.twitter.com/GhSYDci4dr

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) April 25, 2019

That seems like a conscious play to a group of voters who might be more inclined toward a moderate candidate and might be ready to get active in a 2020 election against Trump, given the tenor of his first term — i.e., child separations that disproportionately affected Latino families and communities.

geoffrey.skelley: Latino voters seem like a wide-open voting bloc. Julian Castro seems like a potential fit. But he’s not attracting much tangible support in either the polls or fundraising so far among Democrats in general, so, as Perry wrote earlier this month, it’s not clear that he’ll be able to make significant inroads there.

natesilver: I don’t think it’s that interesting whether Biden gets a polling bounce, because those bounces usually fade anyway. But if he does get a bounce, I’d wonder how much of it comes at Bernie’s expense.

sarahf: Does it matter, Nate, that more of it come at Bernie’s expense than any of the other candidates?

natesilver: It matters in the sense that it would be quite bearish for Bernie if he fell to, say, 16 percent.

geoffrey.skelley: Well, looking way ahead — if Biden cuts into Sanders’s support, that could have real ramifications for delegates with the Democrats’ 15 percent rule (in each primary or caucus, candidates have to win at least 15 percent of the vote to win delegates statewide or by district). So sliding closer to 15 percent in the polls might signal that a candidate is going to fall short of that threshold in some states. But we’re a long way from thinking about that just yet. (Not that it will stop me from doing so!)

natesilver: If Bernie’s base is a solid 20 percent or 25 percent of the electorate, he’s reasonably interesting as a candidate. But if it’s really just like 15 percent, and the other 5 percent or 10 percent is just sort of foam-at-the-top name recognition, I don’t know that he’s a major player for the nomination.

sarahf: Well, to ask that same name recognition question of Biden, how will we know whether some of his popularity is just name recognition? I know he has higher favorable ratings than Sanders, but how should we think about his polling in the next couple of weeks?

natesilver: Given that there are more reasons to think his polling will decline rather than rise later on, I wonder if it will increase to the low 30s from the high 20s. That would give him more runway for stumbles later.

sarahf: Based on what you’re saying about which candidacies are threatened by Biden’s entry into the race, it seems as though he appeals to both the kinds of voters who’d support Klobuchar/Ryan/O’Rourke and those who’d support Booker/Harris, which is sort of a weird, in-between spot. And yet we don’t necessarily think of candidates like Klobuchar and Harris competing for the same voters.

So what is it about Biden’s candidacy that gives him appeal to different wings of the party? How could he play that to his advantage? And how could that backfire?

geoffrey.skelley: Well, Biden is going to lean hard into his connection to former President Barack Obama, who remains basically the most popular figure in the country among Democrats.

sarahf:

I asked Rihanna not to DM me https://t.co/p3TytePAjH

— Steadman (@AsteadWesley) April 25, 2019

perry: That was hilarious.

sarahf: Setting aside the 1,000 memes sure to follow, what do we make of Biden saying that?

perry: Obama is not going to endorse him, so that was a way to deal with that issue head-on.

natesilver: Nor is Obama going to endorse anybody anytime soon, although I do wonder if he’d weigh in if it came down to a contest between [Candidate X] and Bernie.

clare.malone: The way I’ve been thinking about it and the way I phrased it on Thursday’s podcast is that the Democratic Party has been having a big ideas meeting for the past two years — there are lots of new ideas, lots of people buying into them, and lots of talk about big, structural changes. But Biden is kind of offering the “if it ain’t broke” theory of things, which is that he’s here to remind people of the halcyon Obama days. A familiar face, familiar messages, that kind of thing. Which is how, I think, he could steal voters from a decently broad swath of candidates who are trying to differentiate themselves in this new environment.

natesilver: And a lot of messaging about how Trump is a historical anomaly, rather than being the inevitable culmination of the Republican Party’s drift toward populism.

geoffrey.skelley: Obama was never going to endorse this early, not with so many candidates running. But Biden has eight years of being his VP to use as evidence of his ability to lead the country, which isn’t nothing.

perry: I thought Obama’s spokeswoman’s statement praising Biden was great for him. It’s not an endorsement, but it’s somewhere between not endorsing him and endorsing him, and probably the best Biden could hope for at this stage. And Biden is already featuring pictures of himself with Obama.

Biden had a good campaign rollout in some ways. Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey endorsed him, which signals support in an important swing state. And a prominent, young black voice in the party — Symone Sanders — is joining his campaign.

natesilver: This was an interesting endorsement, too:

This is fascinating and surprising. Biden’s first NV endorsement is from progressive, young legislator, first Latina ever elected to state Senate. She also all but ran @RubenKihuen campaign that crushed @LucyFlores, who has accused Biden of invading her personal space in ‘14. https://t.co/INL3JHwnn6

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) April 25, 2019

perry: Yeah, Biden’s endorsements aren’t just from white people, or moderates in the party, or people living in the Northeast.

geoffrey.skelley: Nevada state Sen. Yvanna Cancela hits three important demographics: Latina, union ties, and from a key early state.

perry: Biden wants to build a broad campaign, and all the first indicators are positive.

But what we are seeing right now was all planned I assume for his first day as a candidate, so what happens a month from now will be more telling.

natesilver: Biden’s announcement has made me think of Harris in a slightly different light. Like, why isn’t she getting more endorsements outside of her home state? I’d think she might have more success if she used an argument along the lines of: “The polls are now dominated by three white guys, none of whom really does a great job representing the whole Democratic coalition. I’m the best alternative to them, and it’s time to start building momentum before it’s too late.”

clare.malone: On a debate stage, I think a lot of people might go after Biden’s record. I’m curious to see how cutthroat the primary will get about his past and how much that will stick with the kinds of voters that he wants to win — moderates, including minority voters.

perry: Biden vs. Warren is going to be great.

clare.malone: Warren’s memoir calls out Biden for his opposition to some of her bankruptcy work. Kind of fascinating.

perry: Yeah. Warren has long been concerned about his record and, I think, is the person with the most incentive to take him on. She is the most policy-focused candidate, and he is the exact version of the Democratic Party she is trying to fight.

geoffrey.skelley: The thing is, in a crowded field, you don’t know what the ripple effects will be of attacking someone. This was one of the things that slowed GOP contenders from attacking Trump early on during the 2016 primary. They didn’t know if their attacks might help someone else instead.

clare.malone: Right. There’s some game theory involved.

Or something. I dunno. I was an English major.

sarahf: So, who do we think Biden sees as his biggest competitor? And vice versa?

perry: Harris probably has to win South Carolina. And I think Biden has to be worried about any candidate with the potential to do well with black voters and big donors in the party.

geoffrey.skelley: Harris has to be hoping Nevada is a possible win for her, too, given its proximity to her home state of California, where she is polling well.

perry: If I were Biden, I would be worried about Buttigieg or O’Rourke or Booker taking off and being seen as very “electable” to Democratic voters.

sarahf: As Nate wrote in our theory of the case for Biden, his “ratio of favorable ratings to unfavorable ratings is 4.8, which essentially ties him for second-best in the field with Harris and puts him only slightly behind the leading candidate, Buttigieg.”

Biden’s favorability ratings are near the top of the pack

Average of favorability ratings among Democratic voters in recent national, Iowa and New Hampshire polls

Morning Consult: U.S. Monmouth: Iowa Saint Anselm: N.H. Average Candidate Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Ratio Buttigieg 38% 9% 45% 9% 42% 6% 42% 8% 5.2 Biden 75 14 78 14 70 18 74 15 4.8 Harris 49 12 61 13 54 10 55 12 4.7 Booker 44 12 54 16 56 11 51 13 3.9 O’Rourke 47 11 60 13 46 17 51 14 3.7 Sanders 75 16 67 26 67 25 70 22 3.1 Klobuchar 28 13 51 10 31 13 37 12 3.1 Castro 28 12 36 9 24 8 29 10 3.0 Inslee 17 7 26 5 10 6 18 6 2.9 Warren 55 19 67 20 58 30 60 23 2.6 Hickenlooper 16 9 32 8 15 10 21 9 2.3 Delaney 14 9 31 12 17 7 21 9 2.2 Gillibrand 32 14 37 17 33 18 34 16 2.1 Gabbard 16 11 29 13 16 13 20 12 1.6

Only candidates whose favorability was asked about in all three polls are included in the table.

Morning Consult poll was conducted April 15-21, Monmouth University poll conducted April 4-9 and Saint Anselm College conducted April 3-8.

Sources: Polls

geoffrey.skelley: Sanders and Harris are my first thought as his biggest competition. Plus, as Perry said, someone like O’Rourke — and I guess Buttigieg, too.

natesilver: Every candidate should probably be worried about Buttigieg right now.

perry: Biden seems like the safe choice. But if other candidates seem like a safe choice but are also exciting, that might pose a problem for Biden. Democrats want a candidate who will be Obama-like, exciting and thrilling to vote for.

clare.malone: YOUTH

Although Biden is going after the youth vote pretty hard, tbh.

Currently on sale for $27 pic.twitter.com/kLu0KBlaMV

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) April 25, 2019

perry: Yes, Biden served with Obama, so their connection is strong. But I’m sure that many Democrats would love to elect a first-in-history candidate, whether that be a gay man, woman, South Asian woman, Latino or black woman, if they are convinced that person can beat Trump and would be a good president.

geoffrey.skelley: Buttigieg isn’t that well-known, yet he is getting around 10 percent now in some polls. That is notable given how name recognition plays into early polls.

clare.malone: People like Buttigieg because he’s young blood. That’s central to his appeal, as is the “I’m a smart moderate” thing.

sarahf: But the one big thing working against Buttigieg is that some voters don’t seem ready to say they think he can beat Trump, even though there’s a lot of enthusiasm for him:

Even non-Biden voters think Biden could win the general

Average difference between share of Democrats who said each candidate was their first choice in a primary and the share who said the candidate had the best chance of winning the general election in two recent state polls

Quinnipiac (CA) Granite State Poll (NH) Candidate First Choice Best Chance First Choice Best Chance Average Diff. Joe Biden 26% 35% 18% 25% +8.0 Beto O’Rourke 4 5 3 3 +0.5 John Delaney 0 0 0 0 +0.0 Bernie Sanders 18 17 30 30 -0.5 Kirsten Gillibrand 0 0 1 0 -0.5 Cory Booker 2 1 3 2 -1.0 Amy Klobuchar 2 1 2 0 -1.5 Andrew Yang 1 0 2 0 -1.5 Elizabeth Warren 7 4 5 2 -3.0 Kamala Harris 17 9 4 2 -5.0 Pete Buttigieg 7 2 15 4 -8.0

Includes everyone who appeared in both questions in both polls, which means some people who have not entered the race are included and some declared candidates are excluded.

Quinnipiac sampled 482 Democrats and Democratic leaners; UNH sampled 241 likely Democratic primary voters.

Sources: Quinnipiac University, University of New Hampshire Survey Center

perry: I think most of Biden’s rivals need Democratic voters to think differently about electability and who is electable. But that’s not great for Biden — a part of his campaign is based on an opinion that the others can’t beat Trump, but that perception could change.

Obama himself has publicly said that people other than white guys can win. If I were one of the candidates, I might start noting that in public.

sarahf: Yeah … What’s the scenario where Biden’s electability argument falls short? Does that happen if that’s the only thing Biden can campaign on?

clare.malone: I’m really curious about what kind of campaigner he’s going to be in 2019! I don’t think we can underrate that.

natesilver: I’m not sure if it’s that Biden’s electability argument would fall short so much as that people become more comfortable with the other candidates. If there’s someone you think would make the best president, you tend to come up with rationales for why they’re the most electable, too.

perry: About 50 percent of Democrats are liberal, and about 50 percent identify as moderate or conservative. Plus, half of Democrats are 50 or older. One advantage Biden has is that there are currently not that many strong candidates appealing to this crowd.

sarahf: So if Biden is able to woo that portion of the party … might he have enough for a winning candidacy?

geoffrey.skelley: To win the Democratic nomination in a crowded field, you might only need a plurality of the primary vote — Michael Dukakis did it in 1988, for example. However, winning a majority of delegates with just a plurality of the vote is not easy in the Democratic primaries as there aren’t winner-take-all contests like there are in the Republican primaries. Still, I’d say there’s an opening for Biden if he ends up being a factional candidate.

natesilver: You need more than just plurality delegate support, though, to win the nomination — it’s the one contest where you need majority support (more or less), or else you have to endure a contested convention.

So I think it is worth thinking about how each candidate would fare at a contested convention. If Candidate X has 35 percent of the delegates and the next-closest candidate has 30 percent, does Candidate X tend to win the nomination at the convention?

For Bernie, I think that answer is “maybe not.” For Biden, I think it’s “probably so, but not sure.”

sarahf: 2-0-2-0 C-O-N-T-E-S-T-E-D C-ON-V-E-N-T-I-O-N!!

I don’t know how you do that, Nate, because that was terrible to type.

natesilver: CoNtEsTeD CoNvEnTiOn

clare.malone: The return of delegate hunting.

geoffrey.skelley: Also, SUPER DELEGATES RAAAHHH

Anyway, yes, it could happen, but I still wouldn’t bet on a contested convention.

sarahf: OK, we’ve talked about which candidates Biden’s candidacy threatens and from which candidates he faces stiff competition. What do we think will change in the field overall now that he’s announced and we continue to move closer to the first debates?

perry: Biden now has to figure out his position on like 50 issues that have emerged in the primary.

clare.malone: I was thinking about this during the CNN forum the other night. Candidates were asked about felon voting, and now it’s turned into a little bit of a kerfuffle.

I think people might start to give more hedging answers on some of these structural change questions that have been popping up — abolishing the Electoral College and the like.

That is, I think Biden could splash a bit of cold (moderate) water on some of these hot topixx debates.

natesilver: We may be in a relative period of stasis until the debates. We’ll see how much higher the “Buttibump” grows. We’ll see if Biden gets any bounce of his own and how good his initial fundraising numbers look, but there’s not necessarily a whole hell of a lot going on right now.

perry: The stances Biden adopts will help set the stage for the debates — i.e., how big is the ideological divide in the party? But I don’t think voters really are that engaged on policy.

However, at this stage, candidates are asked tons of policy questions by activists and reporters.

And Biden will have to give some answers, which will create fodder for activists, the press and the other candidates.

sarahf: Does Biden risk not offering enough of a vision? For instance, I’m thinking of Klobuchar, who dismissed the idea of free college tuition or canceling student debt by saying that it’d be impossible to pay for and without countering with a vision of her own. I could maybe see Biden finding himself in a similar situation.

natesilver: I think Biden offers a pretty clear vision — defeat Trump and restore America back to Obama’s America.

sarahf: But is that exciting enough for voters?

natesilver: It doesn’t have to be exciting. It just has to intuitively appeal to Democrats. And I think it probably does, and I think that’s more important than the policy specifics, at least to the sorts of voters that Biden is seeking out.

geoffrey.skelley: I guess one thing to keep an eye on is whether aviator glasses-wearing Biden shows up or gaffe-prone Joe shows up? Or is it a mix?

sarahf: I’d bet on the former given the screen-printed totes his campaign is selling.

perry: I don’t think Biden can run on electability solely. I expect him to have policy ideas — just not as many or as liberal as Warren’s. He will have gaffes, but the press will cover them less intensely if he is leading in all the polls.

Also. If the gaffes are really him being insufficiently woke, he might not care about them.

This will be a fascinating part of the campaign. There will be an “Anybody-But-Joe faction” of the party. And we will see if he can steamroll them.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #A FiveThirtyEight Chat

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alinacapellabooks · 4 months ago

Text

Thanks for the tag! It took a lot to get through this, but I think I covered everything well enough ^_^

When did you first start writing?

I was born in front of a laptop with a plot outline in my hand. I’m kidding, but point is, I’ve been doing it since I was a very small child.

Are the genres/themes you enjoy reading different from the ones you write?

Not at all. It wouldn’t make sense to write romance and fantasy if I didn’t enjoy both of those genres.

Is there an author (or just a fellow writer!) you want to emulate, or one to whom you’re often compared?

I don’t particularly want to emulate anyone except for Ai Yazawa, but only because her ability to create human characters is unmatched. She is the only writer I have ever read who is able to perfectly translate the thoughts and feelings of real people into fiction. I want to be able to do that too.

As for who I’m compared to…When I found The Tengu And The Angel on romance.io (I don’t know why it’s there, I didn’t put it on there), the site recommended that people read Alice Oseman because her books are similar to mine. Which, I’m not gonna lie, I find that to be quite the compliment.

Can you tell me a little about your writing space(s)? (Room, coffee shop, desk, etc.)

Living room, on the couch. I’m always most productive after I’ve cooked and eaten a proper meal. I love to cook, even though I don’t always have the spoons for it, but something about the cooking process helps the writing process.

What’s your most effective way to muster up some muse?

Read some of whichever book I’m currently reading. I live by Stephen King’s principle of, ‘If you don’t have time to read, you don’t have time to write.’

Did the place you grew up in influence the people/places you write about?

No. I take most of my inspiration from the people I’ve met, or from places I either have visited, or want to visit. My hometown has never factored into my writing.

Which of your characters would you want to be friends with in real life?

Nathaniel and Solana. I’d definitely vibe the most with them.

Which of your characters would you dislike the most if you met them in real life?

Brooklyn Steadman, and I didn’t even have to think about an answer to this one. The fact that men like him exist in real life sickens me, and I enjoyed writing him so that I could give someone like him the punishment he deserves.

Tell me the process of coming up with your characters

My recipe for an OC goes as follows:

1 cup of personality traits

1 cup of backstory (I prefer tragic, but any kind works)

A pinch of things I personally think are cool

Do you notice any recurring themes among your characters?

I’ve spotted two so far. 1.) Being either on the aromantic or asexual spectrum (I’m a big believer in doing a job myself if I want it done right, I’m aro ace and I write characters who are on both spectrums because there needs to be more aro ace representation), and 2.) Traumatised people with mommy issues who are angry with the world and use unhealthy coping mechanisms. I’m looking at you, Kunio and Solana…

How do you picture them?

Short answer: I can’t. I have a mild form of aphantasia and I cannot picture things in my head in detail, which sucks. I often look for real-life reference images for my characters, and then use those to give to artists to create concept art of them. I found the perfect reference image for Nathaniel when I was making an aesthetic board for him, like, it was as if he’d somehow jumped off of the page and found his way into real life, and I wish I could find reference images that perfect for all of my OCs. Kunio was way harder to come up with a reference image for, and really the closest I could get was an old photo of Haruma Miura. He was the only person I could find who looked anything like what I envisioned for Kunio.

What’s your reason for writing?

I write because I want to save people from reality. Reality sucks, and fiction provides an escape from reality. Fiction is a place where people can be happy, and free from their problems. When reality has you broken, bleeding, and backed against the wall, let my works be your refuge.

Is there a specific comment or type of comment you find particularly motivating coming from your readers?

I live for detailed, in-depth reviews. If someone tells me specifically which parts of the book they liked best, I’ll know that I’ve made an impact on them. If someone tells me that a certain character or event resonated with them, or brought them comfort and hope, I’ll know that I’ll have successfully saved someone from reality.

How do you want to be thought of by those who read your work? (For example: as a literary genius, or as a writer who “gets” the human condition; as a talented worldbuilder, as a role model, etc.)

I want to be someone who is able to save people from reality. I want people to read my books knowing that they will give them the things that reality cannot offer them.

What do you think is your greatest strength as a writer?

Characterisation. I pour as much humanity into my characters as possible, and a lot of the behavioral patterns of my characters are ones that I’ve witnessed firsthand in real life. Real people aren’t perfect—They make excuses for people who don’t deserve their forgiveness, they hurt without meaning to, and they bottle their emotions up until they explode and make a mess of everything around them, and I make sure to reflect that in my characters.

What have you been frequently told your greatest writing strength is by others?

Again, characterisation. Kunio is by far my most popular character, and for good reason. (He’s also one of my personal favorites because he’s really fun to write ^_^)

How do you feel about your own writing?

As it stands, I’m proud of my abilities as a writer, but I know that I can always do better, and I’m always looking for ways to improve my craft. If you’re satisfied with staying where you are, you’ll never go any further.

If you were the last person on earth and knew your writing would never be read by another human, would you still write?

If that were the case, I would paint my stories on a wall or carve them into stone in the hopes that some alien civilisation will discover them after I’m gone. Even with the absence of humanity, I don’t want to be forgotten, and if only one record of my existence survives, I want it to be my writing.

Are you influenced by what others might enjoy reading?

I have to admit, it’s a bit of both. I’ll only write a book if I have a story I want to tell, but at the same time, I want my books to sell well, and I will look for specific gaps in the market that I want to fill. I have never seen any mainstream publisher put out a book with a demiromantic main character—I’ve seen a few aromantic characters, but the rest of the aromantic spectrum seems to be largely ignored by mainstream publishers, which is part of what lead to my decision to make Nathaniel demiromantic.

Leaving this tag open!

Writerly Questionnaire

The very lovely @sableglass tagged me in this one. (I absolutely relate to your love of escapist romances to read alongside the beach 💖✨)

I’ll answer the best I can. Bear in mind I’m a little bit of a chaos gremlin :)

About Me

When did you first start writing?

About 12 years old. I always took a liking to Disney animated classics, which have inspired me to write and draw similar to the style.

Are the genres/themes you enjoy reading different from the ones you write?

Actually, the two are very similar. What I love to write is what I love to read. I’ve taken more of a fancy to writing romances now as opposed to a decade ago, though :)

Is there an author (or just a fellow writer!) you want to emulate, or one to whom you’re often compared?

Not that I’m aware of. Everyone has taken a little bit of inspiration from different sources, whether knowingly or unknowingly, so there are probably some authors or writers that I share similarities with. I know for a FACT that a lot of my stories draw heavy inspiration from Disney, which has influenced my art and storytelling styles ✨

Can you tell me a little about your writing space(s)? (Room, coffee shop, desk, etc.)

Ahhh, yes. Couch, coffee table, writing laptop, coffee. Soft throw draped across my lap as I get perpetually cold. Thankfully, it’s nice and quiet in this writing space and it allows me to let me do string-of-thought writing for hours. The only thing is sometimes I lose track of time this way, so I have to set an alarm for breaks and meals.

What’s your most effective way to muster up some muse?

Watching movies, listening in on my friends’ DnD campaigns, or reading stories from friends and mutuals :)

Did the place(s) you grew up in influence the people and places you write about?

Not really. I keep my personal life and writing life pretty separate. After all, a great thing about writing fantasy is that it doesn’t HAVE to tie in to the real world, or personal life. It can be whatever I want it to be ✨

Are there any recurring themes in your writing, and if so, do they surprise you at all?

Recurring themes? You bet. I either write a high fantasy BL Romance, or low fantasy slice-of life RomCom. My favorite writing tropes are Enemies to Lovers, Slow Burn, Found Families, Romantic Comedy, Magic in the Mundane, Slice of Life, Call to Action/Prophecy, and Absurdism.

Do they surprise me? Absolutely. I can have a beautiful plot all planned out, and then my characters say, “okay I see the route, but what if we take a sliiiiight detour? :)” and then soon enough I’m on a totally unique and unexplored path in my writing….and that’s exciting. An adventure all on its own ✨

My Characters

Would you please tell me about your current favorite character? (Current WIP, past WIP, never used, etc.)

I fear if I don’t say Peter here, he’s gonna kill me. In my current WIP, my favorite character is Ali because he’s a lovable goofball genie that wants the best for Noah. Overall currently (side eying) Peter because he’s a chaotic-neutral, anti-establishment, insane pirate captain that makes my life entertaining 😂

Which of your characters do you think you’d be friends with in real life?

Ali. Hands down. Dude gets along with just about everyone.

Which of your characters would you dislike the most if you met them?

Any of the villains I wrote, but going off of main OCs? Gosh that’s tough….probably Tyr because he’s really angry all the time (for good reason, but too much of that is toxic)

Tell me about the process of coming up with of one, all, or any of your characters.

Oh boy. That’s a big one. Let’s see….

Character building kinda happens simultaneously to Plot Planning; it’s a bit hard to describe, as there’s no “right order” to my world building. But usually it’s: “Okay, who is my protagonist? Who is the antagonist? What do they look like? Is the protag a hero, or villain? Is the antag a hero, or villain? What is their ‘general moral alignment?’ What are their characteristics? What are their strengths? What are their flaws? What are their goals and aspirations? Etc.” I do this for each major character. Then, secondary and supporting characters, who get a little less polish but still enough to be human (or relatable) in nature, start getting fleshed out.

Once I get the Core Plots and characters made and planned out, I start piecing the events in chronological order in the story. This becomes my “roadmap” that helps drive the narrative. Then….well, the rest just kinda falls into place. Once I have a “Plan of Events,” all that’s left is writing the story around the plan. And, as I’m writing, new ideas may come, and I get to explore that a little further during the writing phase.

tl;dr: I do the “Tree Approach.” Characters are the foundational trunk. Branches are the Core Plots. Twigs are the Conflicts. Leaves are the little details of each conflict (i.e. how characters react, where the conflict is set, what this means for each character’s aspirations, etc.)

Do you notice any recurring themes/traits among your characters?

Yep :)

How do you picture them? (As real people you imagined, as models/actors who exist in real life, as imaginary artwork, as artwork you made or commissioned, anime style, etc.)

Like this:

My Writing

What’s your reason for writing?

Personal enjoyment, mainly. And how far I can stretch and challenge my creative mind ✨

Is there a specific comment or type of comment you find particularly motivating coming from your readers?

Any story reactions and positive engagement is always appreciated. Just don’t be a dick and you’re good 👍

How do you want to be thought of by those who read your work? (For example: as a literary genius, or as a writer who “gets” the human condition; as a talented worldbuilder, as a role model, etc.)

I loathe this question. As long as people enjoy my stories, that’s what matters. I’m just one silly little guy writing stories for my own enjoyment. The fact that other people can enjoy my wild ideas as well is a blessing in of itself.

What do you feel is your greatest strength as a writer?

Comedy and Dialogue. And comedic timing.

What have you been frequently told your greatest writing strength is by others?

Same as above. Also have been told that I have wildly entertaining and outlandishly creative ideas portrayed in “insane, chaotic, and ballsy ways.” Coolio 🤙

How do you feel about your own writing? (Answer in whatever way you interpret this question.)

I’m proud of it. I’ve successfully written stories that I wanted to read, and reading back through my stories is really entertaining and motivating :)

If you were the last person on earth and knew your writing would never be read by another human, would you still write?

I’ve already been writing stories on my own for well over a decade, nearly two. It was my husband and friends who finally pushed me to go public, and I’m very glad I did :)

When you write, are you influenced by what others might enjoy reading, or do you write purely what you enjoy? If it’s a mix of the two, which holds the most influence?

I write solely for my entertainment, and my personal opinion is that’s the best way to do it, honestly. If I write stories that I want to read, I enjoy them, I spend more effort on them because I WANT to, not to please anyone other than myself. I don’t inhibit myself or censor myself, allowing me creative freedom to write wherever my heart takes me….which has led to some WILDLY entertaining plots. Even if writing is a career to some, if you find yourself enjoying what you write, you’re gonna motivate yourself beyond your wildest imaginations ✨

Man, that was a lot! Thank you @davycoquette for starting the chain, and thank you again Sable for tagging me!

I will gently and no pressure tag the following people as well as my tag list: @nczaversnick , @lavender-gloom , @cowboybrunch , @noblebs , @words-after-midnight , @saturnine-saturneight , @marlowethelibrarian , @coffeexafterxmidnight , @astramachina , @justabigoldnerd , @pippinoftheshire , +open tag! 💛✨

✨👇Tag list for writing tidbits below. DM me if you’d like to be added 👇✨

Tag List for writing tidbits (lmk if you want + or -)

@autism-purgatory , @talesofsorrowandofruin , @sunglasses-in-the-bentley , @glasshouses-and-stones , @alinacapellabooks , @gioiaalbanoart , @fortunatetragedy , @deanwax , @dyrewrites , @honeybewrites , @drchenquill , @paeliae-occasionally , @thatuselesshuman , @kaylinalexanderbooks , @katenewmanwrites , @fantasy-things-and-such , @billybatsonmylove , @madi-konrad , @houseplantblank , @far-cry-from-finality , @froggy-pposto , @fractured-shield , @avaseofpeonies , @topazadine , @thecoolerlucky , @theaistired , @willtheweaver , @rivenantiqnerd @somethingclevermahogony , @noxxytocin , @leahnardo-da-veggie , @addicted2coke-theothercoke , @illarian-rambling , @mysticstarlightduck , @the-letterbox-archives , @theink-stainedfolk , @ominous-feychild

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