#Mary Elizabeth Donaldson

[thepastisalreadywritten]

By Keiran Smith

15 January 2024

SYDNEY (AP) — A day after an Australian became queen of Denmark, her native land on Monday celebrated the unlikely fairy tale with cocktails, picnics and a “Danish Fiesta.”

Mary Donaldson’s journey from Tasmania to the world’s first Australian-born queen has captivated both Danes and Australians.

People gathered to mark the occasion across Australia, including Queen Mary’s hometown of Hobart, the capital of the southern island state of Tasmania.

In Melbourne, scores gathered at Denmark House, one of Melbourne’s oldest social clubs, to celebrate the coronation with a special cultural event.

“It’s not something that happens every day that you have an Australian becoming queen. I don’t know if it will ever happen again,” Danish Club Vice President Lykka Borup told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Mary’s husband, Crown Prince Frederik, was proclaimed king of the European nation on Sunday, two weeks after his 83-year-old mother, Queen Margrethe II, announced she would be the first Danish royal to abdicate in about 900 years.

Several landmarks in Hobart were lit up in Denmark’s red and white colors, as many residents celebrated with a picnic or a high tea at Taroona Beach, near Queen Mary’s childhood home.

Celebrations were also held at the Slip Inn, the Sydney pub where the royal couple first met during the 2000 Olympics.

The establishment announced it was hosting a “Danish Fiesta” during January, with a special “There’s Something About Mary” cocktail.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described Queen Mary’s ascension as a “great day.”

“She has carried herself in a way that I think just brings enormous support and pride to all Australians,” he told the ABC’s Radio National program on Monday.

“We’re very proud that Hobart-born Mary Donaldson has become the queen of Denmark,” he said.

Albanese said his government has made a donation to a charity that works to protect the endangered Tasmanian devil.

“Mary grew up in Tasmania, and so it is fitting Australia marks this occasion with a gift to support the conservation of the Tasmanian devil,” he said in a statement.

Jeremy Rockliff, premier of Mary’s home state, said Tasmanians “could not be prouder of Queen Mary, and there was always an open invitation for the royal couple to visit."

The Tasmanian government also said it would send a gift of a table of Huon pine, a Tasmanian timber, handmade by a local furniture maker, and make a donation to a charity that supports children’s wellbeing.

It’s a cause that the 51-year-old Queen Mary, a mother of four, actively supported during her two decades as crown princess of Denmark.

[spryfilm]

Blu-ray review: “White Sands” (1992)

[catherinetheprincessofwales]

9 Royal Mary’s of history - Reigning and Consorting: -> 1. Mary of Burgundy: Consort of Maximilian I, Holy Roman Emperor (1457–1482). -> 2. Mary of Hungary (Mary of Habsburg): Queen consort of Louis II of Hungary and Bohemia (1505–1558). -> 3. Mary I of England: Reigned 1553–1558 (1516–1558). -> 4. Mary of Guise: Queen consort of James V of Scotland, regent for Mary, Queen of Scots (1515–1560). -> 5. Mary, Queen of Scots: Reigned 1542–1567 (1542–1587). -> 6. Mary II of England: Reigned 1689–1694 (1662–1694). -> 7. Mary of Modena: Queen consort of James II of England, regent for James Francis Edward Stuart (1658–1718). -> 8. Mary of Teck (Queen Mary): Consort of George V of UK, reigned 1910–1936 (1867–1953). -> 9. Mary Elizabeth Donaldson (Queen Mary): current Queen consort of Frederick X of Denmark since 14th January 2024 (1972-).

[charlotte-of-wales]

Happy 52nd birthday to Queen Mary of Denmark!

Born on February 5th 1972, Mary Elizabeth Donaldson is Queen of Denmark as the wife of King Frederik X. She became the first Australian-born queen consort upon the abdication of her mother-in-law, Queen Margrethe II, on 14 January 2024.

Mary was born and raised in Hobart, Australia and her and Frederik met in 2000 during the Sydney Olympics.

Mary is mother to four children: Christian (18), Isabella (16) and twins Vincent and Josephine (13).

[victorysp]

Mary Elizabeth Donaldson is the new Queen Consort of Denmark.

[georgefairbrother]

A little over 40 years after the Abdication Crisis that had peaked in December of 1936, Thames Television, holder of the weekday independent TV franchise for London and the Home Counties, commissioned a dramatisation based on the exhaustive Wolfson History Prize winning biography of Edward VIII by Frances Donaldson.

There was great care taken in terms of casting, production design, and location filming that included Fort Belvedere where many of the real events unfolded. Edward and Mrs Simpson seemed to be as close as you could possibly get to 1930s culture, fashion and upper-class society without a time machine. Written for television by Simon Raven and directed by pioneering British-Asian director Waris Hussein, the series was rewarded with an Emmy and multiple BAFTAs.

In retrospect, it appears to be as faithful to real events as a drama could be, including verbatim conversations and parliamentary statements. Edward VIII, formerly the Prince of Wales known as David, then finally the Duke of Windsor, was played by Edward Fox, and Wallis Simpson by Cynthia Harris. Other key castings included Nigel Hawthorne, yet to find stardom as Sir Humphrey Appleby in Yes Minister / Prime Minister, as the King’s friend and advisor Walter Monckton, David Waller as Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin (He reprised this role in 1988 for another adaptation, The Woman He Loved, starring Anthony Andrews, Jane Seymour and Olivia de Havilland), Peggy Ashcroft as Queen Mary, Marius Goring as King George V, and Wensley Pithey as a totally convincing Winston Churchill. Versatile British-Australian actor Ed Deveraux played Tory press baron Lord Beaverbrook, a role he later reprised in The Life and Times of David Lloyd George (BBC 1981).

Other notable players included Andrew Ray (Duke of York / George VI), Charles Keating (Ernest Simpson), Patrick Troughton (Clement Attlee), Patricia Hodge (Lady Diana Cooper), Maurice Denham (Cosmo Lang, Archbishop of Canterbury), Cherie Lunghi (Thelma Furness) and Hugh Fraser (Anthony Eden).

The Duke of Windsor died in 1972, but the Duchess of Windsor, formerly Mrs Simpson, was still alive when the programme was conceived and broadcast. (She died in 1986). She was not best pleased, citing invasion of privacy, and lobbied to have the production stopped. Her opposition was reported in The Sun, and perhaps might have been more newsworthy if not for another significant event in August 1977.

The series ended with the marriage of the Duke and now Duchess of Windsor, some months after the Abdication.

The BFI Screen-Online review stated;

"…The series also carefully juxtaposes Edward’s frequent, and popular, visits to depressed areas with his opulent and carefree private life, and doesn’t shy from showing his admiration for Mussolini in a pair of brief but pointed exchanges with Anthony Eden…Edward Fox gives a fine and charismatic performance as the King, ably suggesting the contradictory impulses that ruled the man. Wallis Simpson, however, is presented rather less sympathetically. In an occasionally heavy-handed performance, Cynthia Harris plays her as a cool and conniving gold-digger, albeit a sometimes naïve and even disarmingly foolish one…"

The portrayal of Edward VIII was a little more sympathetic than in some later productions, including Bertie and Elizabeth (2002). Edward and Mrs Simpson did tend to gloss over the King’s fascist sympathies, although it was at least alluded to as mentioned in the BFI review. Perhaps, in fairness, these along with some alleged shady financial dealings, meddling in Britain’s foreign policy and the cosy relationship with Hitler, didn’t really become apparent until the period after the series ended. Wensley Pithey’s Winston Churchill was accurately shown as a strong and sincere personal friend and advocate for the King and Wallis Simpson, in public and private, to the annoyance of the Baldwin government, but this relationship later soured when Churchill was wartime Prime Minister, over the Duke of Windsor’s behaviour.

[head-post]

Denmark’s new queen is Mary from Australia

Who is this Mary who will be the new Queen of Denmark? Royal News reports.

The future Queen Mary of Denmark was born on 5 February 1972 in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Mary was the youngest daughter of John Dalgleish Donaldson and his first wife Henrietta Clark Horne. She has two sisters, Jane Stevens and Patricia Bailey, and a brother, John Stewart Donaldson. Mary’s mother died on 20 November 1997 and her father married Susan Elizabeth Horwood in 2001.

Mary attended the first two grades at Clear Lake City Elementary School in Houston, Texas, where her father was working at the time. In 1975, her family returned to Australia and Mary attended school in Sandy Bay until 1977. She then attended Waimea Heights Elementary School until 1982. She attended Taroona High School from 1983 to 1986 and also spent two years at Hobart College where she developed a love of sport. In 1989 she enrolled at the University of Tasmania, graduating in 1994 with a Bachelor of Commerce and Law.

Her first job was as an account executive at advertising agency DDB Needham on a graduate programme. Over the next few years she worked at MOJO Partners, Rapp Collins Worldwide of Edinburgh, Young and Rubicam, Love and Belle Property.

Read more HERE

[notforemmetophobes]

White Sands (1992)

R-1h 41min Genres: Action, Crime, Drama, Thriller

A small southwestern town Sheriff finds a body in the desert with a suitcase and five hundred thousand dollars. He impersonates the man and stumbles into an F.B.I. investigation.

Director: Roger Donaldson Writer: Daniel Pyne Stars: Willem Dafoe, Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, Mickey Rourke

[tallmantall]

James Donaldson on Mental Health - Male suicide rate highest for 20 years: How to help if someone is struggling

Marie-Claire Dorking The rate of male suicide is at its highest for 20 years The rate of male suicide in England and Wales last year reached its highest level for two decades, new figures have revealed. Men accounted for three-quarters of suicide deaths registered in 2019, making up 4,303 of the 5,691 deaths by suicide. Based on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, that puts the rate of male suicides at 16.9 deaths per 100,000, which is the highest since 2000. Men aged 45 to 49 had the highest suicide rate, at 25.5 deaths per 100,000 males, according to the statistics published ahead of World Suicide Prevention Day (10 September). “The latest statistics released by ONS don’t make for great reading,” says Simon Gunning, CEO at charity Campaign Against Living Miserably (CALM). “On average 109 people a week died by suicide in 2019 across England and Wales. With men accounting for 75% of suicides, an average of 83 men a week are dying by suicide. That is unacceptable.” There are many complex reasons why the male suicide rate is at a concerning level Why are men so at risk? According to Gunning there are many, incredibly complex, reasons for the gender bias in suicide. “We know suicidal thoughts are common amongst men with more than four in 10 men under the age of 45 in the UK have contemplated taking their own lives,” he said. “Yet a staggering 84% of men in the UK say they bottle up their emotions, with nearly half (44%) saying they suppress their emotions often or at least once a day.” Elizabeth Scowcroft, head of research at Samaritans, agrees there are many psychological, social, cultural and economic factors that could influence male suicide risk. She points to Samaritans research which has shown that factors like relationship breakdown, unemployment, having to live up to a ‘masculine’ gold standard, and not having the same type of social network as many women, have a role in increasing the risk of suicide for middle-aged men. “We also know that men who are less well-off and living in the most deprived areas are up to 10 times more likely to die by suicide than more well-off men from affluent areas,” she adds. #James Donaldson notes:Welcome to the “next chapter” of my life… being a voice and an advocate for #mentalhealthawarenessandsuicideprevention, especially pertaining to our younger generation of students and student-athletes.Getting men to speak up and reach out for help and assistance is one of my passions. Us men need to not suffer in silence or drown our sorrows in alcohol, hang out at bars and strip joints, or get involved with drug use.Having gone through a recent bout of #depression and #suicidalthoughts myself, I realize now, that I can make a huge difference in the lives of so many by sharing my story, and by sharing various resources I come across as I work in this space.  #http://bit.ly/JamesMentalHealthArticleFind out more about the work I do on my 501c3 non-profit foundationwebsite www.yourgiftoflife.org Order your copy of James Donaldson's latest book,#CelebratingYourGiftofLife: From The Verge of Suicide to a Life of Purpose and Joy www.celebratingyourgiftoflife.com Link for 40 Habits Signupbit.ly/40HabitsofMentalHealth If you'd like to follow and receive my daily blog in to your inbox, just click on it with Follow It. Here's the link https://follow.it/james-donaldson-s-standing-above-the-crowd-s-blog-a-view-from-above-on-things-that-make-the-world-go-round?action=followPub Culture of Silence According to Stephen Buckley, head of information at mental health charity MIND, another contributing factor could stem from men being unwilling or feeling unable to open up if they’re suffering. “Unhelpful and inaccurate societal assumptions about gender and mental health can prevent men from showing their emotions, talking about their feelings, or asking for help,” he explains. “Men are generally less likely than women to visit a GP for a physical or mental health problem, meaning problems could go undetected and get worse.” He adds that women tend to have stronger support networks of friends and family around them. “Loved ones can be instrumental to improving our wellbeing, providing us with someone to confide in when we are struggling with our mental health,” he explains. “Men are generally more likely to turn to less effective coping strategies, including alcohol and substance use, which can make our mental health worse. “That’s why it’s so important that mental health interventions are offered in a range of settings, including through sports, exercise and physical activity groups.” The Samaritans agree that men may be more open to seeking support via less traditional methods. “We’ve more recently found through our research that building support and coping mechanisms for men might involve using activities, exercise or music to manage stress or worry, rather than talking, and their relationships may be based more around shared activity than directly speaking about how they’re feeling in more formal support settings,” Scowcroft explains. Reaching out to someone you think might be struggling is an important first step Time for change Despite the cultural stigma surrounding male mental health and suicide, Gunning says we’re moving in the right direction. “More people than ever are contacting CALM and accessing our services, which is a good sign that we are reaching people and they feel able to reach out for help,” he said. Buckley agrees that attitudes surrounding male mental health are improving, thanks in large part to anti-stigma movements like Time to Change, a campaign to change how people think and act about mental health, run by charities Mind and Rethink Mental Illness. “It’s also really helpful and encouraging to see high-profile individuals speak out about their own experiences, particularly male sportspeople, as this helps normalize mental health problems, prompting others to ask for help if they need it,” he adds. How to help someone struggling with their mental health According to Gunning, if you’re concerned a male friend or relative is struggling with their mental health, the first step is trying to encourage them to open up. “If you’re worried that someone you know may be feeling suicidal it can be really hard to know what to say to them,” he says. “But it’s important we do reach out to talk to them.” Buckley agrees that talking to someone you think might be struggling is important. “You don’t have to be an expert, just try to ask them how they’re feeling, and listen sensitively and non-judgmentally to their response,” he says. “If they are not willing or able to open up, you’ve at least let them know you are there for them if and when they want to talk. “If they are feeling suicidal, call 999 and ask for an ambulance, and stay with them if you think they may take their own life.” CALM have created a couple of simple measures people can adopt to help someone who might be battling a mental health problem. “The ALAN method is a tool we developed to help get the conversation started, and make us all more comfortable checking in on someone who seems to be having a tough time. It’s easy to remember and just as easy to do,” Gunning explains. - Ask open questions, such as ‘how are you doing?’. Give the person time to open up if they need. It’s okay to say you’re worried, or that you’re not sure how to start the conversation but you wanted to see if they’re okay. Asking is the very first step in breaking down that wall and making a connection in someone’s time of need. - Listen. Once you’ve asked a question, make sure you actually listen to the answer. Be patient and let them say what they need. Try to just listen, rather than attempting to solve any problem. Lots of people just need to vent – and even by chipping in with advice you could unintentionally cut them off or dismiss their feelings. - Action. Create a plan of action to get them feeling better. It’s a good idea to set SMART goals – tasks that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely. So rather than a general ‘I want to feel happier’, break that goal down into more manageable chunks; say, calling and booking a doctor’s appointment by this time next week, or planning to meet up again this coming Friday. Let your friend know what support is out there and arrange a time for you to check back in. - Network. Let them know they’re not in this alone. Build a support network of friends, family, and professionals (a doctor or a therapist, for example), so that the person struggling knows they have people they can turn to in any situation. For further help and information:- CALM's helpline and webchat are open from 5pm until midnight, 365 days a year. Call CALM on 0800 58 58 58 or chat to their trained helpline staff online, it’s free, anonymous and confidential. You can also contact Samaritans free on 116 123 or view other ways to get in touch with the charity. Or for more information about mental health and how to get help visit Mind. Read the full article

[freequizbank]

Coronation of Prince Frederik and Princess Mary: How a girl from Hobart met her prince and became a queen _ FreeQuizBank.com - Free Exam Practice Questions for LANTITE Numeracy, Mathematical Reasoning - OC, Selective and Scholarship Tests @acereduau #NSWeducation #AusEdu @AusGovEducation @ServiceNSW

[thepastisalreadywritten]

The Evolving Royal Style Of Denmark’s New Queen Mary (2011 - 2024)

By Alice Cary

14 January 2024

Mary (born Mary Elizabeth Donaldson; 5 February 1972) is Queen of Denmark as the wife of King Frederik X.

[vprogresseducation]

Coronation of Prince Frederik and Princess Mary: How a girl from Hobart met her prince and became a queen _ FreeQuizBank.com - Free Exam Practice Questions for LANTITE Numeracy, Mathematical Reasoning - OC, Selective and Scholarship Tests @acereduau #NSWeducation #AusEdu @AusGovEducation @ServiceNSW

[fewbat]

The Fourth Annual Davey Awards - The Nominees!

Hello! Every year I hold the annual Davey Awards for brilliance in motion pictures that move. This is our fourth year, and it promises to be one that is a year. Let's get to the nominees. Please note that there are some big movies (The Boy and the Heron, Poor Things, The Iron Claw, Ferrari, Wonka, The Taste of Things, for example) that I haven't been able to see and won't be able to see for a while. However, The Boy and the Heron's score was released to streaming services recently and I like the little impatient so-and-so that I am listened to it, and felt compelled to include it for consideration. Without further adieu:

THE 4TH ANNUAL DAVEY AWARDS® NOMINEES

BEST PICTURE

THE ADULTS

ASTEROID CITY

BARBIE

BLACKBERRY

THE HOLDOVERS

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

MAESTRO

MAY DECEMBER

OPPENHEIMER

PAST LIVES

BEST DIRECTOR

GRETA GERWIG - BARBIE

MATT JOHNSON - BLACKBERRY

MARTIN SCORSESE - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

TODD HAYNES - MAY DECEMBER

CHRISTOPHER NOLAN - OPPENHEIMER

KELLY REICHARDT - SHOWING UP

BEST ACTOR - LEAD

MICHAEL CERA - THE ADULTS as ERIC

HANNAH GROSS - THE ADULTS as RACHEL

SANDRA HÜLLER - ANATOMY OF A FALL as SANDRA VOYTER

JASON SCHWARTZMAN - ASTEROID CITY as AUGIE STEENBECK/JONES HALL

PAUL GIAMATTI - THE HOLDOVERS as PAUL HUNHAM

LEONARDO DI CAPRIO - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON as ERNEST BURKHART

LILY GLADSTONE - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON as MOLLY KYLE

JONATHAN GROFF - KNOCK AT THE CABIN as ERIC

BRADLEY COOPER - MAESTRO as LEONARD BERNSTEIN

SALMA HAYEK-PINAULT - MAGIC MIKE’S LAST DANCE as MAXANDRA MENDOZA

NATALIE PORTMAN - MAY DECEMBER as ELIZABETH BERRY

GRETA LEE - PAST LIVES as NORA MOON

DAVID JONSSON - RYE LANE as DOM

VIVIAN OPARAH - RYE LANE as YAS

RUPERT FRIEND - THE SWAN as NARRATOR/PETER WATSON

TEYANA TAYLOR - A THOUSAND AND ONE as INEZ DE LA PAZ

BEST ACTOR - SUPPORTING

SOPHIA LILLIS - THE ADULTS as MAGGIE

MILO MACHADO-GRANER - ANATOMY OF A FALL as DANIEL MALESKI

RACHEL McADAMS - ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME, MARGARET as BARBARA SIMON

RYAN GOSLING - BARBIE as KEN

KATE McKINNON - BARBIE as WEIRD BARBIE

GLENN HOWERTON - BLACKBERRY as JIM BALSILLIE

KIEFER SUTHERLAND - THE CAINE MUTINY COURT-MARTIAL as QUEEG

DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH - THE HOLDOVERS as MARY LAMB

DOMINIC SESSA - THE HOLDOVERS as ANGUS TULLY

HARRIET SANSOM HARRIS - JULES as SANDY

ROBERT DeNIRO - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON as WILLIAM KING HALE

DAVE BAUTISTA - KNOCK AT THE CABIN as LEONARD BROCHT

CHARLES MELTON - MAY DECEMBER as JOE YOO

JULIANNE MOORE - MAY DECEMBER as GRACIE ATHERTON-YOO

EMILY BLUNT - OPPENHEIMER as KITTY OPPENHEIMER

HONG CHAU - SHOWING UP as JO

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Dustin Guy Defa - THE ADULTS 

Wes Anderson, Story by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola - ASTEROID CITY

David Hemingson - THE HOLDOVERS

Samy Burch, Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik - MAY DECEMBER

Nathan Bryon & Tom Melia - RYE LANE

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach - BARBIE (Based on the toy brand by Mattel)

Matt Johnson & Matthew Miller - BLACKBERRY (Based on the book Losing Signal: The Untold Story Behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of BlackBerry by Jacquie McNish and Sean Silcoff)

Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (Based on the book of the same name by David Grann)

Steve Desmond & Michael Sherman and M. Night Shyamalan - KNOCK AT THE CABIN (Based on the book The Cabin at the End of the World by Paul Tremblay)

Christopher Nolan - OPPENHEIMER (Based on the book American Prometheus by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Simon Beaufils - ANATOMY OF A FALL

Jared Raab - BLACKBERRY

Jarin Blaschke, Lowell A. Meyer - KNOCK AT THE CABIN

Matthew Libatique - MAESTRO

Olan Collardy - RYE LANE

BEST EDITING

Laurent Sénéchal - ANATOMY OF A FALL

Lucy Donaldson - A HAUNTING IN VENICE

Thelma Schoonmaker - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Michelle Tesoro - MAESTRO

Jennifer Lame - OPPENHEIMER

BEST SCORE

Alexandre Desplat - ASTEROID CITY

Joe Hisaishi - THE BOY AND THE HERON

Robbie Robertson - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Ludwig Göransson - OPPENHEIMER

Christopher Bear, Daniel Rossen - PAST LIVES

Gary Gunn - A THOUSAND AND ONE

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Des. Adam Stockhausen, Set Dec. Xocas Montes, Kris Moran - ASTEROID CITY

Des. Sarah Greenwood, Set Dec. Katie Spencer - BARBIE

Des. Ryan Warren Smith, Set Dec. Markus Wittmann - THE HOLDOVERS

Des. Jack Fisk, Set Dec. Adam Willis - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Des. Anthony Stabley, Set Dec. Salinas Mazure Maria - SAW X

COSTUME DESIGN

Milena Canonero - ASTEROID CITY

Jacqueline Durran - BARBIE

Sammy Sheldon - A HAUNTING IN VENICE

Jacqueline West - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Cynthia Lawrence-John - RYE LANE

MAKEUP

BEAU IS AFRAID

BLACKBERRY

JULES

SAW X

THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR

VISUAL EFFECTS

ASTEROID CITY

THE KILLER

OPPENHEIMER

SAW X

THE SWAN

SOUND

ASTEROID CITY

BEAU IS AFRAID

THE KILLER

MAESTRO

OPPENHEIMER

ANIMATED FILM

TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

SHORT FILM

Terrence Davies - PASSING TIME

Wes Anderson - THE SWAN

Warren Beatty - TRACY ZOOMS IN

Wes Anderson - THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR

---- We of course announced our honorary Davey winners earlier this month. The list of winners will be released next month. Happy movies.

[sourcreammachine]

🌹🌳🕊️🌻💩

ÞE NATIONAL SITUATION

Imao that sounds so serious, like a pretentious cable news show. bona vespero and welcome to Þe National Situation with amy fuck, our top story tonight is this shit:

these're the opinion poll results for the next general election, since 2019. the graph shows something occurring in late 2022 to give labour its massive lead: mary elizabeth truss. and for 18 months now, labour have held steady whilst the tories slowly run out of steam

some tory mps are annoyed with boring little rishi doing absolutely nothing to try reverse the party's fortunes, which in their book means be more of a rightwing shithead. so there's massive rumours of a coup attempt in the works to install a further-right tory leader, typically centring on penny mordaunt. the government has repeatedly insinuated that the election will be held in autumn, but in recent days there's been rumours of june, ie it's possible little rishi will dissolve parliament immediately after these local elections in order to stop the coup against him. a bad enough local election result may cause an immediate general election

based on current poll results, ElectoralCalculus.co.uk predicts the next general election þusly:

well, they don’t do ni, so the i’ve put current ni poll results into their machine manually, and it says the dup will lose three seats: one to sinn féin, one to apni and one to the uup; but those polls were all done before the arrest of jeffrey donaldson, so that may change

hilariously, EC’s current labour poll result is literally 0.1% more than 1997, making it their best ever by half a hair’s breadth

but anyway, things’re pretty fucking dire for the tory party. that forecast, 90 seats against 23.6% of the vote, would be by both metrics the worst tory election result literally ever (if you ignore after the coup of 1653 when there were literally none)

here’s a few of their worst elections ever:

that’s 1754 with the least tories ever, 1832 with the fewest tory votes since records began (immediately after earl grey’s First Great Reform Act (when records began)), 1906 with the fewest tory seats since the Third Great Reform Act and 1997 with the fewest tory votes since 1832 and seats since the Fourth Great Reform Act

23.6% and 90 seats is far worse than any of those results, more than 5% under their worst result ever for votes, 66 seats under their worst seat haul ever under democracy, and 16 under their worst seat haul since the revolution. yep

but there’s a key reason for this tight forecast. look at the polling graph at the top, and check the cyan line: Reform have had three clear periods of growth, once after Truss, once slowly last autumn, and the third now rapidly in recent weeks. it’s rightwing despair that’s fuelling this more recent tory collapse, and it’s rapid and aggressive. with such a sudden change the situation with Reform cannot be called stable, and so their current nominal polling result has to be taken with a grain of salt

so let’s take that grain of salt

ElectoralCalculus published this data on voter movement, one little homunculus representing one percent of the electorate moving from the party they voted for in 2019, to the party they say they’ll vote for now:

according to them, 8% of all voters are those who voted tory in 2019 and now list themselves as intending to vote Reform, being the overwhelming bulk of current Reform backers. let’s use this number, 8%, as a theoretical best-case-scenario for the tories in regard to Reform, for if they were able to prevent literally every previous tory voter from going to the dark side. so, reduce the Reform vote by 8% and increase the tory vote by 8% and we get this:

this is still a landslide but it’s not as bad. it’s not as bad as 1997, by a little bit. but that’s theoretical, showing the devastating impact that losing 8% to Reform is having on the tories, letting labour hoover up more seats. we can’t say how high the Reform vote will be in the end due to massive fluctuation and instability, and the fact that lesser parties always do better in polls than at The Polls, but it WILL be higher than 4.1%, and its effect will be instrumental in costing the tories the election

so if we go back to 12.1%, the current actual forecast, let’s look at the 90 surviving tories. here’s my biggest cry for help yet:

that’s ElectoralCalculus’ seat-by-seat results for the 90 seats it’s declaring tory, ranked by “safety” as per a metric i invented, patent pending, oc do not steal. i’ve listed the tory candidate for the seat (in bold if they’re an incumbent, italicised if they’re a freshman, with a question mark if the incumbent has neither been confirmed as the candidate nor announced their retirement (i’m assuming they will be announced as the candidate eventually), and blank if they’ll be a freshman but it’s not been announced who yet). i’ve also listed their rank (‘new’ for freshmen, ‘back’ for backbenchers, ‘under’ for undersecretaries, ‘min’ for ministers, ‘sec’ for cabinet secretaries, ‘form’ for backbenchers who’re former cabinet secretaries, and ‘grand’ for grandees, which i’ve defined as anyone from the class of 2001 or earlier, including those who’re former cabinet secretaries). i’ve also listed their intake year

so, there’s ‘maj’ for their majority (by how many percentage points they are forecast to lead their closest rival). but i wanted a better show of seat safety than this, factoring in possible changes in circumstances outside of the tussle between the tories and Reform. ‘tlt’ stands for ‘tertiary left total’, the combined total of the two parties (or three in scotland and wales) that aren’t the tories, aren’t Reform, and aren’t the party that came second place. essentially, if this number is higher than the tory majority, then if the tertiary parties were to vote for the strongest opposition party, then the seat could be taken by a non-tory. this is the case in 83 out of 90 of these seats. in-and-of-itself this number doesn’t mean much, because that scenario would never happen, but it does help prepare the final number, by which the list is sorted

‘safety’ is maj as a percentage of tlt. it’s what percentage of tertiary-party voters (except for Reform) would need to change their mind and vote for the strongest opposition party in order for the opposition to win. in the seven seats where this number exceeds 100%, it’s impossible - if every liberal and every green were to vote labour, then the tories would still be bigger. in the 83 remaining seats, it’s not mathematically impossible, but usually it’s politically impossible. but the reason i included this number is how absolutely obscene things get near the end of the list. under 20% and especially under 10%, then tactical voting really could shift things, it’s not a liberal myth. the fylde has a forecast tory majority of 0.1%, while the liberals and greens have (let’s round down to) 10% combined. that means that if ONE PERCENT of liberal or green voters feel the way the wind’s blowing and vote labour, then the fylde is labour. so this safety metric is safety from that happening, when in a data vacuum, of course. michael gove has a rating of 12% and jeremy hunt has 4%, both of whom have the liberals in second place, both of whom are in surrey, the emerging new liberal heartland. given the liberals’ ability to focus their campaign on target seats, and their will to focus on these twats’ seats, then despite being amongst the 90 safe tories, they are significantly likely to fall. based on current data that is, which of course is affected severely by the fortunes of Reform, currently on 12% nationally and unstable. if it were to fall, then the tory majorities increase and these 90 seats become safer and many others are held, but if it rises, then tory majorities fall, and the number 90 starts to shrink fast. the tories are polling nationally at 24% against Reform’s 12%, if we were to change that by two more points, let these tory majorities fall by two more points, then 17 of these seats go under immediately, and the other 73 become so much more vulnerable to tactical voting, entirely through the relationship between blue and cyan

so yeah, the tories being totally evicted from scotland like in 1997 won’t happen this time under this data - unless ten-ish percent of labour/liberal/sgp voters in the borders instead vote snp, and two percent of them in aberdeenshire do. stranger things have happened. the seat in powys is forecast to be helplessly divided between labour and liberals tho, so the tories aren’t forecast be evicted from wales again, unless one firmly trounces the other in that seat. but anyway

the reason i wanted to profile the 90 forecast remaining tories is because this 90 is an odd lot. there’s:

16 freshmen

20 unaccomplished backbenchers

8 current undersecretaries

14 current ministers

9 current cabinet secretaries: sunak, dowden, hunt, cleverly, gove, badenoch, barclay, atkins(?never heard of her), and heaton harris

8 former cabinet secretaries: truss, patel, zahawi, williamson, morton, clark, mundell, jayawardena

15 grandees, including david david, john redwood, mark françois, and michael fucking fabricant

with such an exodus of ‘talent’ [sic], i can’t imagine this lot forming a shadow government, or any sort of effective shadow cabinet at all. after what she’s done, truss would never be able to serve in a shadcab lead by someone who’s not drunk the koolaid, and zahawi and williamson resigned in disgrace, and patel is polled as the most hated politician in the country, and there’s fifteen corpses lingering around taking up space. that only leaves the worthless and pathetic, amongst the tories that is. it’d be unprecedented for lord cameron the baron cameron of chipping norton to join the shadcab, and that’d only worsen the perception of the tories being a load of out of touch lords and grandees. open goal for starmer to abolish the lords, a former promise of his that’s now in the starmer phantom zone of neither life nor death

but holy shit i’ve been rambling for a while. this thread’s about the local elections. i just thought it good to illustrate just how much of a headwind the tories have this time, and how much a bad performance will only worsen them yet. Good

🍋AMY COVERS ÞE MAY 2024 ENGLAND ELECTIONS MEGAÞREAD

do you want maps? do you want numbers? do you want to see me slowly go insane over needlessly complicated municipal administration structures? if you answered yes, you’re a fucking weirdo, but pick up a Þ and welcome to pure fucking nonsense. i’ll be updating þis þread every now and þen so feel free to check in whenever you want

if you don’t wanna see any of þis, filter out #amy524

election day is 2 MAY and voting closes at 22:00 BST (21:00 UTC)

[charlotte-of-wales]

Happy 51st birthday to Crown Princess Mary of Denmark!

Born on February 5th 1972, Mary Elizabeth Donaldson became the Crown Princess of Denmark upon her wedding to Prince Frederik in 2004. Mary was born and raised in Hobart, Australia and her and Frederik met in 2000 during the Sydney Olympics.

Mary is mother to four children: Christian (17), Isabella (15) and twins Vincent and Josephine (12).

[stockholmgirl]

Mary Elizabeth Donaldson - May 2004