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#I might not end up doing what wins in this poll lol. especially if it’s one I havnt seen as many movies for. but Im curious
spacepunksupreme · 1 month
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Trying to start planning my next little horror movie October illustration series like my Dractober, and my slashers from 2022 and last year. Which of these do you guys wanna see me do next? 👀
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twilight803 · 2 years
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Self aware twst au is so good cause you probably wouldn't know unless they slip up (cough Cater cough) AND I FEEL LIKE THEY WOULD BE WORSHIPPING YOU AND FIGHTING OVER YOU!!!
Like if you are getting Lilias birthday card, HE WOULD BE SO SMUG ABOUT IT ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE TO GET TO 100 PULLS TO GET IT.
The rest of them are SALTYYY, the Adeuce would be mad because they spend the most time with you, might try to win you over by giving you more gems and showing up more in the daily reward thingy.
Riddle would be trying to find any reason to get on screen, he'd like get mad at Ace and Deuce for NO REASON like they could breathe the wrong air in front of Riddle.
Trey would keep showing up in your gacha polls he'd be giving you so much cards of him, NOTICE HIM GIVE HIM ATTENTION.
Cater would keep TRYING to turn on your camera, the others would get PISSED at him cause they don't want you to get scared and not play.
Leona would try to pretend he doesn't care BUT HE DOES, He would be LIVID and SALTY if you skipped his banner for someone else, HE'D TAKE IT OUT ON POOR RUGGIE.
Ruggie is probably trying to get you to put him on homescreen, poor bb just wants your UNDIVIDED ATTENTION, LEVEL HIM UP!!
Jack would definitely be unsure of what to do, like he'd end up trying to get your attention, showing up for daily reward as the guest. He'd give you gems JUST LOOK AT HIM, he'd be wagging him tail.
Azul omg Azul he's a bb he just wants you to get all of his cards, level them up, PUT HIM ON HOMESCREEN, he'd probably try to get your attention by desperately saying things that are like showing he's self aware, IT JUST SLIPS.
Jade would be so passive-aggressive he'd be like SALTY when he's on screen, making aggressive remarks with a sly smirk on his face, HES SO PETTY lol.
FLOYD WOULD END UP GIVING THEM AWAY AS SELF AWARE, HE WANTS YOURE ATTENTION AND IS GONNA DO WHATEVER HE CAN TO GET IT, HES SO SALTY AND WILL PUSH THE OTHERS TO GET ON YOUR DAILY REWARDS SCREEN.
Kalim would be so clingy to you, he'd somehow end up in every story, he just loves you, GIVE HIM ATTENTION, HES SO OBVIOUS ABOUT IT ASWELL.
Jamil would be planning whoevers on the homescreen demise, HE WILL ELIMINATE EVERY OTHER OPTION HE JUST WANTS TO BE WITH YOU, AND KALIM WOULD BE BUGGING HIM TO HELP HIM GET YOU, Jamil would be so pissy though.
Vil is PISSED, he is the most beautiful and fairest of them, SO WHY ISNT IT HIM THATS ON YOUR HOMESCREEN, if you skip his banner omg he's gonna take it out on epel and he'd start thinking he's not enough, JUST GIVE HIM THE ATTENTION HE DESERVES, or else.
Rook would be trying to get on that homescreen you will find all of his cards in your pulls, HES GONNA GET THERE, and gonna call you beautiful things in French just you wait (paint me like one of your French girls).
Epel will definitely be getting on Vils nerves even more than usual, HE JUST SO MAD THAT YOU DIDNT WAIT FOR HIS BANNER, CHOOSE HIM. LOVE HIM, he needs the reassurance (and your attention).
Idia just wants to see you, but he's so socially awkward, he'd be trying to find a way into your world, he doesn't want the other to know if he does, BUT HE STILL WANTS YOU TO PULL FOR HIM, HE KNOWS THE PAIN OF PULLING FOR A CHARACTER AND KNOWING YOULL SAVE OR SPEND MONEY FOR HIM, HE WOULD JUST BE SO FLUSTERED.
Ortho just likes spending time with you, you're just so glorious in his eyes, he also want his brother to be happy with you aswell, he's GONNA help his brother get into your world or atleast you in theirs, HE WANTS A HAPPY END.
Sebek would be trying to get you to get Malleus cards, HE WANTS HIS WAKASAMA HAPPY, AND YOU MAKE HIS WAKASAMA HAPPY, BUT at the same time he loves you and he wants you aswell, he'd share or give you to Wakasama.
Silver would want you to get his cards and put him on homescreen, BUT he's so sleepy so not much gets done BUT HE TRIES, HE'LL BE YOUR KNIGHT IN SHINING ARMOR JUST LOOK AT HIM, He'd be slightly happy for Batty boy of course, but he's also slightly jealous.
LILIA WOULD BE ESTATIC IF YOU GOT HIS BIRTHDAY CARD, HE WANTS YOU TO LEVEL HIS UP, OMG IS HE ON THE HOMESCREEN, he's such a tease though, he'll act like he's not too affected by it but IF YOU GET TO 100 PULLS ON HIS BANNER, BATTY BOY WOULD FEEL A BUT BAD BUT SO HAPPY THAT YOU SPENT OR SAVED MOENY JUST FOR HIM, FUFFUFUFUFUFU.
Malleus would be kinda salty that you didn't wait for his which is so close to Lilias, BUT Hornton is trying to get your attention as well, HE IS SO ATTENTION STARVED, HE NEEDS IT. He is also trying to find a way to get you into their world or into yours he's looking through tons of spell books, but he wants on that homescreen, YOURE NOTHING LIKE HES EVER SEEN, HE WORSHIPS YOU, LOVES YOU, MARRY HIM!!
THESE ANGSTY BOYS JUST WANT YOUR ATTENTION SO BAD, GIVE IT TO THEM, THEY ALL WANT TO BE NOTICED!!
(jealous of batty boy)
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luffyvace · 8 months
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Perona x male reader
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This might be more accurate to pre time skip perona bc I’m watching impel down arc, hope you all don’t mind 💗
I just really like her and wanted to write for her since she’s underrated <3 (plus from the poll)
Idk how you and perona met or when but y’all together soo !! 🤷‍♀️
if your dumb/dense- (lol) like zoro or luffy she’s gonna go insane
she loves you..! but your just…..a bit slow..
no matter how through her instructions are you always somehow end up doing the opposite
she has to do a lot of things herself which triggers her because she considers herself a princess
she gets mad at you, but not mad like how should would to bearsy, more so a ‘you can’t do anything with out me 🤦‍♀️‘ typa mad
in fact she usually ends up helping YOU out
”I’m only doing this because I love you, you know??”
she says that while pouting all the time
but if you return the favor by helping her carry something heavy, giving her a kiss on the cheek, or just sincerely thanking her?
shes a blushing mess in denial 💝
if your smart !!
She finally has someone that gets her and is on her side!!
she makes you spend lots of time with her
picking out what outfit she should wear
watching the sunset
she does all sorts of romantic stuff with you <3
(zoro gets lost and crashes your dates 🙂)
if your on the slow side you, zoro and mihawk drive perona up a wall fr
shes the only female and her boyfriend isn’t even on her side?!🧍‍♀️
I mean you are, but it’s just not the same if you don’t get her
and if your intelligent you help her keep zoro under raps
and she makes you help defend her in arguments
LOL
perona likes to pick your outfits
dw she has a great taste in fashion, she’s very stylish
she puts you in black and your favorite color
so that you two are kinda matching
ngl she’s pretty sentimental
one moment she loves the crap out of you and the next she’s attacking you with hollows
ok I know that seems more moody or bipolar or smth but it’s just because she’s sensitive!
it’s more so that what you say affects her deeply because she loves you
so if you choose the wrong dress and you say it’s cuter than the one she was hoping you’d choose, she’s gonna think you think she’s ugly
(don’t ask me how that translates she’s overthinking it)
Your less prone to this if your average smarts or above
but again if your on the slow side, your love is gonna seem like push and pull
She makes you help her with everything, whatever she needs
and she’s kinda clingy, she always has to have you around
at least in the same room, if your not she looks for you
its not because she’s insecure or anything she just likes being in your presence
If she wants to reorganize a room? She’s instructing you and your doing the actual work
she wants the dishes done? Why didn’t you wash them??
(you make a point that she’s the one who used a crap ton trying to cook and she ends up helping you)
she’s fair for the most part though she may be a bit bossy..
perona’s love languages are quality time and physical touch
(lol physical touch is irony but anyway)
yeah I’ve pretty much been mentioning quality time throughout this whole thing
she basically just loves to be around you, doing anything with you whatever!
she doesn’t like to be bored though so you guys are gonna have to figure out fun things to do
playing hide and seek is always fun with her!
she’s really good at it but sometimes you feel like her devil fruit is cheating 😒
you’ve found her a couple times though!
she was proud of you but also kinda upset at the same time 😂
If she hears you getting close to her hiding spot she immediately moves
So it’s very rare you do win
and as a seeker she uses her hollows (sometimes zoro too, he does it begrudgingly though) to find you
she also goes through walls so yeah that helps, when she hears you she can get to you faster
If your a straw hat Kuma mighta sent you there for stealth training 😂😂
I feel if your highly intelligent you could outsmart her though, especially if you learn her way of thinking
with physical affection perona loves to cuddle, hug and give cheek kisses
NOT around zoro and mihawk though
she gets so embarrassed about it
pda does not amuse her so don’t try it
she doesn’t really like using her hollows on you but she just might
she loves to show you off despite that!
oddly enough
she constantly brags about your feats and accomplishments
she may as well be more proud than you!
Even if you haven’t done much she still prasies you
The ghost princess absolutely cherishes you!
anyway yeah she gives you a forehead kiss before you go to sleep
and she expects one back!
but wait til right before she falls asleep!
it’s more romantic that way 😍
(yes she wants it that specific way or she’s going to be pouty with you the next day)
if you don’t do it right she will ignore you
But she gives in first bc 1) she loves you too much 2) she gets bored 3) she likes your attention
she also does this thing where she holds onto your arm and floats
She secretly wants you to kabedon her
shell never tell you that..
(look it up if you don’t know what it is :P)
She reminds you of a cat when cuddling
she practically curls up into a ball on your lap
she gives you cheek kisses whenever you do her a favor or if she’s just feeling particularly happy
(for more dense m/n that’ll be if you did something smart or didn’t tick her off on accident today)
perona will also simp if you have abs/muscles
will avoid you for a bit if you catch her though
I mean she can go through walls so if your changing and she’s comes in..
OF COURSE SHE DOESN’T STAY FOR THE FULL THING SHE’S NOT A PERVERT IT’S JUST-
even if you don’t mind she doesn’t want you to catch her admiring you
she spies on you working out still, since that’s less suspicious
if you don’t have abs that’s all right
she romanticizes you anyways so no matter what you look like or what you do she absolutely adores you!
Your love life with perona is never dull!
she genuinely loves you ♡
These were a really good length! 💪 I’m getting back in my groove! 😼
I was originally not gonna do these but I’m glad I did they didn’t take very long and were fun to write! :) hope you enjoyed lovelies 💖
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yuribracket · 2 years
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are you planning on doing any seeding for this bracket? the one youve posted just has the pairings based solely on series order and i'm worried it will lead to some strong contenders being eliminated very early due to difficult first round matchups (mostly talking about hikalala vs. akiyuka here. lol.)
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So my problem here is I don't really know how I would go about gauging how popular each season/pairing is in a way that I could assign them values for seeding. Most popularity polls I can find are Japanese language so I don't know how that would map onto the primarily English-speaking tumblr fandom. I do know, for example, that kirapre is popular and hacha is unpopular, but if I were to swap those around I'd have to do more than just that and then I don't really know where I'd stop switching things up.
I also find the traditional seeding logic people apply to seeding for tumblr poll brackets somewhat unsound, since rather than a sports competition where a team could have an exceptionally good or bad day, it's just popularity and there's not really any way to keep everyone happy. While the first pairing on the bracket is one that follows the seeding logic of, going by popularity, a strong contender against a weaker one, I have a lot of sad Mai/Saki fans in my notes. Meanwhile given the enthusiasm I've seen for hikalala and the lack of enthusiasm for akiyuka in my original yuri bracket, I don't see either pairing winning that matchup as an impossibility.
And while I see where you're coming from with your second ask , I don't think excluding those big pairings is an option, especially considering how much pushback I saw when I excluded hikalala. I could see potentially replacing akiyuka with Himari/Aoi, but no such alternative exists for nagihono. I also don't feel able to switch them out for pairings from Smile and hugtto because, from what I can see, there aren't really any big ships from Smile, and because no one likes hugtto (no offense hugtto fans).
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I do appreciate you giving your input, and I will continue to think on how seeding might be done. However in general I am just not too concerned about any of this because the bracket is for fun, for me and for voters, and its results are of no real consequence whatsoever. Perhaps my next project after the precure yuri bracket ends could be a B-tier yuri bracket, either for precure or in general. That way some high-quality but underappreciated ships could get their time in the spotlight...
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snkpolls · 4 years
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SnK Episode 68 Poll Results (for Anime Only Watchers)
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The poll closed with 59 responses. Thank you to everyone who participated!
Please note that these are the results for the Anime Only Watchers’ poll. If you wish to see the results for the Manga Readers’ poll, click here.
Anime only watchers, beware of spoilers if you venture over to the manga readers’ poll results.
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RATE THE EPISODE 53 Responses
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The response was overwhelmingly positive with 88.7% of responses giving the episode a 4 or a 5. In addition, there weren’t any 1s or 2s this time around. A noted contrast to the previous episode. Suppose Sasha’s death ruined the experience for some.
it epic
I NEED MORE
awesome
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING MOMENTS WAS YOUR FAVORITE? 55 Responses
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The scene with the largest amount of reception (18.2%) was the final scene of the episode, where Eren repeats his mantra to himself in the mirror while revealing his new look. Behind that was the reveal that Armin is talking to Annie (10.9%). At a tie (9.1%), people most enjoyed Hange’s eccentric greeting to the Marleyan soldiers and Onyankopon explaining why he believes people are different. At another tie (7.3%), were the scenes where Sasha is enjoying Nicolo’s cooking, and the scene where Eren is washing himself at the sink.
WHAT WAS THE MOST EMOTIONAL PART OF THE VISIT TO SASHA’S GRAVE? 57 Responses
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The visit to Sasha’s grave was packed with many tragic moments. According to the responders, the most emotional of those was Connie’s line about losing “his half” (47.4%). Following that we have the scene of grieving Mikasa with 24.6%. In third place is Nicolo’s general grief. Other responses were, in this order, Sasha’s Father agreeing to a free meal from Nicolo, seeing the girl that Sasha saved from a Titan all those years ago and simply Sasha’s family appearing.
AFTER SEVERAL TENSE AND ACTION PACKED EPISODES, HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE TRANSITION TO SOMETHING MORE CALM? 53 Responses
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Ever since the series started, AoT has had a clear contrast between the content of its episodes. Episode 68 of the series notably contrasts with the prior 3-4 episodes. So we wanted to know how the fans respond to these sorts of things. 32.1% stated that they enjoyed the slower paced episode after weeks of chaos. An equal number of responders (32.1%) noted that although they far preferred the action-based content, they understood the need for the slower episodes. A little over 13% said they actually preferred the exposition-esque content, so they were happy with the change and finally, a bit over 11% stated that they were indifferent. 
I view exposition equally as important as action. 
Watching the show dissect what happened before and after the attack on Marley made everything so clear, I love how they were able to capture the drama of both sequences
I'm definetly here more dialogue heavy epiodes and flashbacks but maybe with a slower pacing. It felt a little messy because the episode was also dealing with Sasha's as well as backstory. I think thst was probably intentional though.
They both have their merits.
Still feels great
WOULD YOU RATHER GET A SURPRISE GREETING FROM EREN & HANGE, OR ARMIN & LEVI? 55 Responses
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Marleyan Soldiers got two sets of surprises in this episode. One from Eren and Hange, one from Armin and Levi. The fans would clearly prefer to get one of those from Eren and Hange (78.2%) than Armin and Lavi (21.8%).
ON A SCALE OF 1-5, HOW HAPPY ARE YOU TO BE BACK ON PARADIS? 55 Responses
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We recently returned to Paradis Island and according to the responders, it was a much wanted development, with 85.4% giving a 4 or a 5 when it comes to hype about the return to the island.
ARMIN SAYS THAT ONCE EREN INFILTRATED MARLEY, THERE WAS NO OTHER CHOICE BUT TO ATTACK IN ORDER TO PREVENT IMMEDIATE RETALIATION. DO YOU AGREE WITH HIM? 55 Responses
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The raid on Liberio is being questioned not only by the audiences, but also by the characters in-universe. Still, when it comes to Armin’s justification for the attack, the majority (69.1%) think that there was no other choice for Paradis, be it because they could afford to lose Eren/Founding Titan or because Marley would have retaliated easily. Others (~10%) think that they either should have made more effort to find Eren before it came to the raid or should have just let him go. 14.5% simply aren’t sure. 
They had no choice but to retrieve Eren, but that doesn't necessarily mean a full blown attack. I think Armin is trying to convince himself here. 
Yes. Marley could have captured Eren and had Zeke or someone else eat him for the founding powers.
DO YOU THINK IT’S PLAUSIBLE THAT MARLEY WILL FIND A WAY TO QUICKLY COUNTERATTACK ANYWAY? 53 Responses
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When it comes to Marley, one could wonder if they will attempt a quick counterattack. 67.9% believe so, 15.1% dissent. And 9.4% state that they have been spoiled.  For the write-in responder who feels that we are spoiling via the question itself, we assure you that anything we ask here had once been a matter of debate among manga readers when the corresponding chapters were fresh and we did not know the outcome. We would just like to give anime only watchers the same opportunity to have these debates. 
I don't know.
The fleet has been destroyed, but what about the airforce (if they have one)? I doubt Paradis has the mean to counter that. 
I'm not really sure honestly
This question is a spoiler itself: if you ask this, maybe it means that's what will happen. Thank you.
WHEN EREN FIRES HIS GUN AT THE END OF EMA’S TALK, IT TRANSITIONS TO SASHA TAKING A BULLET IN THE PREVIOUS EPISODE. DO YOU FEEL THAT THE NARRATIVE IS TRYING TO PIN THE BLAME SOLELY ON EREN? 55 Responses
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Eren’s rifle shot was juxtaposed with Sasha’s death, showcasing a possible thread in the narrative. Does the narrative believe that Eren is to blame for Sasha’s death? 38.2% think it’s a yes and 45.5% think it’s a possibility. On the other hand, almost 11% don’t think the story is trying to go for that route. 
While I don’t think it’s trying to pin the blame solely on Eren. I think it’s trying to say he shares a large portion of the blame.
He may be partly at fault, but not fully.
Yes. But they shouldn't. Because it was GabBitch who killed Sasha, and GabBitch alone.
DO YOU BELIEVE THAT ZEKE, YELENA AND THE VOLUNTEERS ARE SINCERE IN THEIR WISH TO HELP PARADIS? 55 Responses
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Zeke, Yelena and Co. are a set of characters. Are they a trustworthy set of characters? Certainly up to debate. 67.8% believe they’re trustworthy to a degree, at the very least. In contrast to 23.6% who find no trust in them. A select few have been spoiled. 
Mmm Yelena & co. maybe...I love Zeke but he's big sus this season
I think they are loyal to Zeke, and his goal is to get the funding titan. At the moment, this means allying themselves with Paradis, but that could easily change. 
They are very sus, Yelena is especially loose. IDK who they'll be loyal too.
DO YOU THINK THAT EREN WANTS TO USE THE WALL TITANS AS A SIMPLE DETERRENT, OR DOES HE WANT TO FLATTEN THE EARTH? 55 Responses
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The possibility of a Rumbling has been brought up more than a few times throughout the series (mostly this season) and the question remains, “will Eren use the Rumbling to flatten the Earth?” 60% think that’ll be the case, in contrast to almost 11% who dissent. 27.3% were already spoiled about the outcome. 
That idiot definetly wants to flatten the earth. Empathy and logic has never been Erens strong suit.
DO YOU THINK THAT EMA HAVE BECOME MORE DISTANT FROM EACH OTHER? 55 Responses
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The iconic EMA trio has been together through thick and thin, so something truly must happen for them to “break up”, so to say. Would one say that they have grown apart? 56.4% think so, but only insofar as Eren goes. 25.5% believe that they all have grown apart to a degree. 9.1% dissent to these assertions and a select few have been spoiled. 
Even Mikasa and Armin seem distant! They were coping on their own after coming back to Paradis. 
I like to refer to them as E     MA. lol. Yehhhh anyway- somethings defs off with them.
ARMIN SAID HE DIDN’T SEE ANY NOTEWORTHY MEMORIES FROM BERTOLT WHEN EREN ASKED HIM ABOUT IT. DO YOU THINK HE’S BEING TRUTHFUL? 55 Responses
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A whole bunch of people doubt Armin’s statement about not seeing anything useful in Bertolt’s memories (81.8%), though some (14.5%) think the boy’s telling the truth. A select few have been spoiled.
DO YOU THINK MIKASA IS LOSING HOPE IN THE WORDS THAT ONCE GAVE HER STRENGTH? 56 Responses
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Long ago, Mikasa stated that one must fight, survive and win. If they don’t fight, they won’t survive and will lose. But with some losses drumming up on the plate, could she start doubting this mantra? 46.4% believe that we cannot say one way or another until we see more. 26.8% don’t believe that Sasha’s death will shake her confidence in that belief and it’s just a brief moment of doubt, in contrast to 23.2% who believe that Sasha’s demise will irreparably change Mikasa’s philosophy. 
No....? I did't even realise she was that close to Sasha. I feel like if she loses Eren THEN she'll lose hope.
what words?
Mikasa deserves better than emo world destroyer Eren!!! She's too pure.
EREN SEEMED TO BE MISSING WHEN THE SURVEY CORPS WERE INTERACTING WITH THE VOLUNTEERS. WHY DO YOU THINK THAT MIGHT BE? 54 Responses
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Eren wasn’t present when the others were interacting with the volunteers. Some believe it is noteworthy, others do not think so. 38.9% simply aren’t certain. 29.6% think it’s the SC decision to keep Eren away from Zeke’s followers. On the other, 20.4% predict that it was Eren’s own choice of isolation. A select few have simply been spoiled.
Didn’t notice this until now
Maybe he had already left for Marley?
ARMIN WAS HOPEFUL THAT THEY COULD SOLVE THEIR PROBLEMS THROUGH DIPLOMACY. EREN FELT THAT PEACE WAS NEVER AN OPTION. WHO DO YOU AGREE WITH MORE? 54 Responses
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A noted contrast in Eren and Armin’s beliefs was showcased in this episode. 57.4% find themselves siding more with Eren’s anti-diplomatic measures, while 42.6% support Armin’s more peaceful ways.
WE GOT A GLIMPSE OF ANNIE IN THIS EPISODE. WHAT BEST MATCHES YOUR THOUGHTS? 55 Responses
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Annie has been encased in that crystal for years at this point, both in and out of universe. Is she going to get out of that crystal? Just a little over 69% believe so, in contrast to the one person who doesn’t. 23.6% were spoiled one way or another. 
Sis is running out of time...it would really suck if her 13 years were up before she even got out of her lil crystal
This has GOT to wake up, surely.
She got a nose reduction surgery
HOW DO YOU THINK ZEKE WILL RATE HIS STAY AT THE HOTEL OF GIANT TREES? 55 Responses
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Zeke seemed shocked to find his hotel to be a forest of Giant Trees. An iconic location, seen throughout the series. We asked how you believe Zeke will rate his stay. A plurality (40%) think that he won’t be there long enough to do so. 29.1% believe he’ll give it an average score, in contrast to 23.6% who imagine Zeke loving his getaway! 7.3% have been spoiled.
WHAT BEST DESCRIBES YOUR FEELINGS ABOUT PIXIS ARRESTING THE VOLUNTEERS? 55 Responses
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It would appear Pixis detained the volunteers while the SC were away. The majority (52.7%) don’t find it to be a controversial decision, noting that both parties have a mutual understanding between each other. A noted minority (29.1%) thought that it was actually the best course of action, arguing that the Paradisian Military has no way of knowing whether the volunteers are trustworthy or not now that Zeke is here on Paradis. In contrast, 18.2% thought that it was mistake, given how much assistance the Volunteers have provided to the islanders.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE WAY THE PARADISIANS ARE SEEN TREATING MARLEYANS? 55 Responses
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We saw some noted mistreatment of Marleyans by the Paradisians this episode. So we asked the responders what their thoughts were on this development. A plurality (47.3%) couldn’t say one way or the other and needed to see more to pass their judgment. 34.5% were open in their condemnation of those actions, in contrast to the 12.7% who were supportive of such activities. 
Cycle of haaaate. No one is justified in acting that way but it's understandable that they do
Some good, some bad. Military police doing the worst of course. 
An eye for an eye ✌
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON THE EPISODE?
I don't know what to say anymore. This episode made me question my previous ideologies regarding the characters
In my opinion, this episode has more fanservice than usual, from the ship moments of Levihan and Aruani, and to the display of Mikasa's ass and Eren's abs, but Mappa is not over the top and can still get the plot moving and still have those moments that can move the viewers.
I believe in Onyankopon supremacy
Even though I love Mappa post timeskip designs, the pre timeskip design of some characters seemed a bit off to me (particularly Armin and Eren). It distracted me a bit from the action. 
Eren standing Infront of the mirror was way better in manga. Mappa need to put more effort. No hate tho. 
Idk, didn't blow me away. I'm seriously concerned for Armin, he's definetly losing it. Appreciated the flashbacks and the new characters too. Onyankopon has captured my mf heart, if he dies, I die too. 😌
Chad Eren
Niccolo x Sasha OTP
What the shit dude…
Gabi will forever be the worst character to me, no matter what the anime tries to do to justify her
WHERE DO YOU PRIMARILY DISCUSS THE SERIES? 54 Responses
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Thanks again to everyone who responded!
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eurosong · 4 years
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Undo my ESC
Good evening, folks! If you saw my first instalment of “Undo my ESC”, the annual feature where I make a year’s Eurovision better for me by making alterations in each country, you might have thought that ESC getting cancelled had dulled my edge, since, comparing to usual standards, I hardly changed much at all there. Well, that’s because, once again, we have seriously uneven semis, and Semi #1 would have been killer, whilst Semi #2 would have been dead. Here is what Í would have done to even those semis up! 🇦🇱 Albania: The Albanian delegation had seemingly done all it could to wash its hands of, well, two years of comparatively excellent results with authentic, melancholically poëtic and qualitative tracks, namely Malland Ktheju tokës. They brought in Byuckman, in whose interest it is for the contest to become as generically “radio-friendly” as possible, and the genius who brought us lyrics like “this is love/rain falls from above”. As judges. Of a serious musical festival. The foreign jurors did as expected, and voted for the appointed “bop”, but were foiled, however, by one of the minority Albanian jurors on the panel who put it  low in her ranks. An actual renowned music professor who got called all the names under the sun for doing so. And so, to an ensuing shitstorm, the classical and powerful Shaj prevailed instead. Unfortunately, the battle was won but the war was lost, because the representative herself took the lessons of 2018-9, threw them down the aeroplane toilet on the way to LA, and ripped the spirit out of the song, reverting back to the previous Albanian trend of terrible “revamps” and laboured translations into English. The result, Fall from the sky, is but a husk of the original. In my ESC, I’d probably simply keeping the original version of Shaj, which was my uncontested #1 of all songs, but part of me would opt for Ajër, which I love almost as well but which doesn’t carry the baggage of hanging over my head like the sword of Democles this entire season. 🇦🇲 Armenia: I’ve more often than not loved the entries of Hayastan, from the joyous Jan Jan to the soaring Fly with me and defiant Walking out. To say they took a step back this year is kind – it was more like a powerful jump backwards that landed them in the nearest ocean, where they sank like a stone. It was one of the most singularly unpalatable NFs that I have ever watched in this era. Rather than retraumatise myself by going into detail about it, I’ll just say, I would have sent Srbuk or Artsvik again to get the top 10 that I feel both warranted!
🇦🇹 Austria: What a journey for Österreich. From Conchita to this guy, a perky homophobe who explicitly said he wished his kids would not turn out to be gay. He comes up with a third-rate impersonator of a third-rate Benjamin Ingrosso impersonator’s third-rate impersonation of a Timberlake b-side. I would throw that in the bin and invite Pænda back from last year for a shot at redemption after her gorgeous Limits got slept on in 2019.
🇧🇬 Bulgaria: Some people had the neck to say to me “who needs Hungary when Bulgaria is coming back?” Well, I do. Hungary were constantly in the top of my rankings, and just quietly and consistently brought quality. Bulgaria has brought me one good thing – Poli Genova’s œuvre – and a tonne of hype. Their song this year was one of the favourites, and I still can’t wrap my head around how other than the force of PR. It’s a bizarre, unsettling combination of passive-aggressive “look how much you’re making me hurt myself” lyrics with Disneyish saccharine accompaniment, topped off with a key change?! For want yet again of a national final, I would bring Poli back – third time even luckier? 🇨🇿 Czechia: The Bohemians (and Moravians) keep it contemporary but superficial for a third year running, although, thankfully, for the first time since they began doing national finals, we finally have a song without a dubious attitude towards women in the lyrics. Not that there is much to analyse in those lyrics. It’s a merely ok song for me, no better, no worse: a superior alternative would have been Barbara Mochowa’s lush and contemplative second effort, White and black holes, or the glorious 90s British indie-influenced All the blood. 🇩🇰 Denmark: Did Denmark confound international monitors into calling it the world’s happiest country by exposing them to the relentlessly cheery songs that they pick for Eurovision lately? And yet – I really do say yes to Yes, To a certain extent, to a limited amount of exposure, and despite the fact that it leans a little too hard into the territory of sounding like a second Little talks. It was one of the few good songs from DMGP – I also liked the 80s shoegaze-ish Den eneste goth– and I feel so mad at DR that they won’t give Ben and Tan a guaranteed second shot to represent their country after they won in front of an empty crowd. 🇪🇪 Estonia: The days of Eesti being Beesti seem like from a distant memory to me, but there was some quality and quirkiness in Eesti Laul, buried under mountains of beigedom, like the rich-voiced Egert Miller’s soulful Georgia, the jazzy Write about me, or the feisty earworm that was Ping pong. Instead, we got a dreary dirge with sub-Hallmark lines about wot luv is, which would have sounded dated in a contest 30 years ago, sung by a repugnant guy who tried to get people to vote for him last year by leaning on the idea that he was the “only true Estonian.” I’d have Egert get his rightful place as Jüri Pootsmann’s spiritual successor. 🇫🇮 Finland: I was one of the few to be jubilant when a bizarre ode to an Italian porn star with a backing track sounding like a violated version of Eläköön elämä came second in the polls to its spiritual opposite: a shy and rather awkward guy singing a quietly moving song about the passing of time. I love Looking back and wouldn’t change a thing. 🇬🇪 Georgia: You never know what to expect from Georgia, except the unexpected, and yet even I was surprised by what they came up with: a close-shaven guy with veins popping in his head screaming “why don’t you love meeeee?” to a rocky, electronic backdrop. Me being me, I actually do like it a lot. “Take me as I am” sounds like a veiled potshot at the big 5 and a vindication of Georgia’s “keep it weird, send what we want” philosophy. I could suggest that the lyrics, that sound like those of a spurned angsty teen, change a bit, but that would be defeating the purpose of Georgia: one takes them as they are. 🇬🇪 Greece: So, somehow, despite S!STERS coming dead last with 0 pts in the televote last year, using exclamation marks to substitute the letter I is now a thing in Eurovision with the advent of Superg!rl. I spent an hour watching folk waffle on in Greek in its reveal show only for them to reveal the song literally at the very end, so after that, it was a little underwhelming, and nowhere near as good as Better love in 2019. I don’t hate it – and the music video’s concept of her being an amazing superhero who can change the world, but instead she’s stopping people slipping over bananas and rescuing cats from trees is weirdly endearing, so it can stay, but I’d improve the lyrics, particularly in the chorus. “I’m a supergirl, supergirl, in a crazy world, crazy world” is not much higher than “this is love, rain falls from above” in historically bad Greek lyrics at ESC. 🇮🇸 Iceland: Daði Freyr came back from near-victory with the delightful Is this love, added a lovely inspiration in his newborn daughter to a similarly funky and playful track, and came out with Think about things. Unlike what usually happens with songs that are a little bit odd, I was positively surprised to see it walk the NF, and become a phenomenon even outside the ESC fandom. This was perfect and joyous from beginning to end. I hope Iceland will not be like the other Nordics, and will invite Daði directly back .🇱🇻 Latvia: I have come to enjoy the bizarre chaötic energy of Still breathing, It’s a hot mess, but I take weird over dull any day. It wasn’t my favourite in Supernova – that would be the effortlessly cool Polyester, an earworm with a social conscience, written about the cost of fast fashion but dismissed by many people as “she luvs t-shirts song lol”. Given that Samanta Tina tried over half a dozen times to go to ESC, finally won and then had the chance ripped out of her hands by the cancellation, I don’t have the heart to remove her from my ideal ESC 2020 though. She stays, but maybe the staging changes? It’s odd to have what you believe is a feminist anthem but then relegate your backing singers to in the distance, their faces shielded away. 🇲🇩 Moldova: Life is too short to follow Moldovan national finals, especially when you know, lately, that whoever is backed by the hilariously inaptly named Dream team will win there. They are like a parasite, sucking out the colour and fun out of a country that once had plenty of both – cross-reference Hora din Moldova or Lăutar to name just two examples. I guess out of an uninspiring lineüp, I’d go for Moldoviţa for having at least a hint of the brassy folk that used to be their calling card. 🇵🇱 Poland: Speaking of calling cards, after a one year hiatus with an arresting combo of white voice and rocky instrumentation, Poland has returned to what it has most often done in recent years – presented us with an absolute dirge, Empires, which seems like it was written by an unenthusiastic English student whose homework assignment (for which they received a generous C-) was to write a poëm with a bunch of metaphors “we’re moths to a flame, birds to a pane of glass, gasoline and a match”. Despite having a big music industry from which to choose many gems, Poland offers me little alternative choice given that there were only three songs in their grand final – one by the Czech representative last year who, as you might guess from what I said literally a sentence up, isn’t even Polish!Horny Elf, who’s contractually obliged to write only creepy lyrics for songs, tried to represent Polska with a song inspired by a true-life situation where he went around Tel Aviv with a cardboard cutout of one of the hostesses of the show. It’s a love song inspired by gallivanting around with a piece of cardboard. Addressed to that actual hostess. And it’s an almighty earworm that hasn’t escaped my mind since. Amazingly, his Lucy would be my Polish representative. 🇵🇹 Portugal: Portugal is another country beloved by me by for dancing to the beat of its own drummer, or perhaps, rather shedding tears to the strumming of its own fado guitar. They struggled being different, they won being different, and for the last few years they’ve struggled again, despite having a lot of support for both O jardim and Telemóveis amongst fans. This year, the televote went for one interesting song, the charmingly Gallic, accordion-drenched Passe-partout, a song about a cultured girl shaking off her boorish ex who could “never even get into Piaf”, whilst the jury got behind another interesting song, Gerbera, an entrancing, arresting and poëtic song laden with metaphor about the idea of music competing itself. This let Medo de sentir,second in both polls, turn silver into gold. It’s a lovely, heart-felt track, but rather unexceptional - I would have had one of the other more singular songs win. 🇸🇲 San Marino: The weird boil on the face of ESC that somehow never pops, SM is back after its bewildering qualification with a tone-deaf dentist wailing to a microwaved disco song… with something actually palatable, sort of. The aptly named Freaky is dated, odd, overly busy, but Senhit has a lot of charisma, and the idea of “break[ing] all the rules, mak[ing] up some new [ones] and destroy[ing] all of them too” and “life goes by too quickly not to be freaking it up”, well, maybe we do get on board. 🇷🇸 Serbia: Serbia is usually a byword for quality at the contest – they won with one of the best 21st century winners hands down in Molitva, and also sent some of the most beautiful compositions in the contest’s history at the hands of Željko. This year, they decided to join in the leitmotif of reliable countries sucking by sending a group that sound like a third-rate mid-2000s girl band from Transnistria when beautiful songs like Cvet sa Prokletija were right there. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: Fair play to the Swiss for not doing a Cyprus and leaning in on their success with their male Fuego, She gat me, and instead going in a completely different direction with this moody effort. I’m not entirely convinced by the teenage emo-ish lyrics or the unnecessary falsetto, but Répondez-moi is a refreshing effort, and has the bonus of being in French too! And the automatic qualifiers: 🇫🇷 France: You’ve heard of France, right? You know, that wee country south of Belgium, north of Andorra, not much of a music industry… or so you’d think, given that the troolee jeenyuss new delegation, who abandoned their brilliant national final which showcased how diverse and qualitative their music scene is despite it being a huge success in the fandom, and instead reached out to the writer of last year’s last place song for the UK and a few other rentaswedes and they produced something that sounds like a b-side that not even Westlife would have recorded, replete with a stock key change. About as French as IKEA köttbullar. A real shame for one of Europe’s most highly esteemed cultural hotbeds. If they wanted to pick Tom Leeb, who seems like a nice guy and has written some lovely music, he could have made his own song and it would have indubitably been scores better than this. 🇪🇸 Spain: I’m going to apply this to all the automatic qualifiers voting on this semi-final: they scrapped a national final for this? OT was not an ideal format as last year demonstrated with its shit show of contestants sabotaging themselves so as not to get picked for ESC – but still. There’s not much I can say about this other than I don’t like it much and I’d rather Spain return to a proper NF. You don’t spend time trapped on a bus where this song with its torturous falsetto was on replay and emerge with fond feelings. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Usually, in this space, I can point to a song that the UK should have sent and that I fell in love with – like I wish I loved you more or You. Once again, though, another big 6 nation scrapped their NF after tanking it with a bizarre format last year. The BBC said nothing for months, then were unwilling to spend tv time on ESC this year so just blurted out an announcement of an announcement in  about 40 seconds after some dance show. And then they dropped this song. It’s… passable at best, with an annoying chorus (especially that beat in “my last… breath”) and a staggering amount of repetition in a song that clocks in at only around 80% of the standard Eurovision song length. James Newman surely could have come up with something better. It’s a baby step in the right direction, but one taken at the shore where you need to start running to avoid getting pulled away in a rip.
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yujachachacha · 7 years
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Nope.. nope.. nopee.. if fairness is the cause of You being sidelined, i can't accept that.. every midpoll that show You being no.1 in that poll, everyone seems like united to bring her down.. if that bcs of fairness, why they vote yoshiko again (like in sif poll) not the other member that never get elected and she's still get more screen time in the anime... fck that!
Whoa there.
I’m a You fan too, so I’d also love it if You got more screen time. It’s all right to be disgruntled about it, but I still think that You being sidelined is at least understandable. I also think there are perfectly valid explanations as to why Yoshiko gets so much attention.
In fact, if you take a closer look at the polls, Yoshiko doesn’t have as many major “wins” as You does.
Look at what I said before: Yoshiko shows up more because she’s a character that needs more growth and development. As you can see in S2E11, Yoshiko still struggles with the fact that she’s not exactly a popular gal (within the anime-verse, not in real life lol). We get that nice little scene with Riko and Maru at the fortune-telling tent because it shows that Yoshiko has friends at her side who support her when she’s down. The audience needs to be told that there’s nothing to worry about - even though Yoshiko’s still kind of a hot mess, she’s working on it with the help of her friends.
I think part of the reason why so many people flock to Yoshiko is that they feel a bit of pity for her. She’s always plagued by misfortune, whether it’s being caught in the rain at inopportune moments, or missing her middle school trip due to catching the flu (see Question #6 in her Q&A section). You, on the other hand, is a popular girl who is well-liked by everyone and quite successful at almost everything she does. If You is already popular in the 2D world and Yoshiko isn’t, why not make it “fair” and give Yoshiko some well-deserved recognition in the 3D world?
As for Yoshiko’s screen time, well…it does certainly help that Yoshiko is a popular character and great for comic relief. Again, like I said before, You is more of a stabilizing force in the group (apart from moments like the being-crushed-by-Maru running gag in the Hakodate episode). She’s there for moments like Chika’s late-night MIRACLE WAVE practice, and for keeping Chika grounded when the mikan-loving leader gets panicked about the school closing down.
I think the fact that You doesn’t show up too often gives these moments more value. When You tells Chika that she’s always wanted to do something with Chika and will always be there for her in S2E11, it’s a very crucial scene. This is something that she’s said before, in S1E1 (when she tells Chika that she’ll join the school idol club) and in S1E11 (in her conversations with Mari and Riko). We don’t see her say it again until S2E11 because You is, at her core, a very private person when it comes to her feelings.
In S1E1, when she briefly showed a sentimental side of herself to Chika, You was quick to wave aside the moment with a giggle and cheerfully hand over a club application; in S1E11, You doesn’t talk about what’s bothering her until Mari directly confronts her about it; in S2E11, You checks to make sure she’s alone before re-enacting the club recruitment calls. We don’t really need to see You declaring her support for Chika too often because we know that she’s the first member who joined Aqours and the most dependable person in the group. When You does say her feelings out loud, however, it’s at moments when You is so full of emotion that she can’t hold herself back. That’s how heartfelt these declarations are.
Is it frustrating that we don’t get more cute and funny filler scenes from You? Sure. But the scenes we do get are pivotal - You rushing to hug Chika after their all-nighter at the deadline for saving the school speaks volumes about how well she knows Chika, and how much she cares for her best friend’s well-being.
I’m getting a bit off-topic here though. Let’s go back to the subject you brought up: the polls. Here are the results of the polls that have been done so far, roughly in chronological order of when the results were revealed; I’ll only be listing the top three for each:
2nd center election (KoiAqua): Midpoll = You / Ruby / Riko; Final = You / Ruby / Riko
Numazu Gamers poster girl: Midpoll = You / Yoshiko / Hanamaru; Final = Yoshiko / You / Hanamaru
Dengeki G’s cover girl: Midpoll = Hanamaru / Yoshiko / You; Final = Hanamaru / You / Chika (Note: Voters had to pick both a girl and a date spot, so some girls showed up multiple times in the final rankings, e.g. You + Date Spot 1 followed by You + Date Spot 2)
7-11 image girl: Midpoll = You / Riko / Hanamaru; Final = Riko / You / Hanamaru
3rd center election (HPT): Midpoll = Yoshiko / Kanan / Hanamaru; Final = Kanan / Yoshiko / Hanamaru
SIF Winter Promo UR (Snowboarding You): Midpoll = Hanamaru / You / Kanan; Final = You / Hanamaru / Kanan
Uraraji hosts (GuuRinPa): Midpoll = Yoshiko / Dia / Kanan; Final = Yoshiko / Dia / Chika (Note: Chika was in 4th place in the midpoll results)
Sega image girl: Midpoll = You / Chika / Hanamaru; Final = Hanamaru / Chika / Yoshiko
LisAni cover girl: You / Kanan / Chika (Note: AFAIK midpoll results weren’t released)
SIF 5th anniversary campaign girl: Midpoll = You / Riko / Yoshiko; Final = Yoshiko / Mari / Riko
I might have missed one or two, but these are all the polls I can recall at the moment. Using these results, here’s how many times each girl has won an election:
3 times = You, Yoshiko
2 times = Hanamaru
1 time = Riko, Kanan, Dia, Chika
0 (*Chika voice* It’s so frustrating!) = Ruby, Mari
Just based on the final results, you can guess that You, Yoshiko, and Maru are the most popular girls, with Ruby and Mari being near the bottom. And yes, with these numbers, it does seem that Yoshiko is abnormally popular. However, when you take some additional factors into account, Yoshiko’s ranking actually drops below You’s.
Here’s what you need to consider: why did a certain girl win a poll? And how much weight should you give that poll?
While the elections and polls do indicate a character’s popularity level, they only do so to a certain extent. You topped out polls very often in the early days, with her crowning moment being the KoiAqua center election. Winning a center election, especially at such an early stage for Aqours, is a really big deal.
Recall that when KoiAqua was released, the anime hadn’t aired yet, so many of the characters lacked substantial depth. In fact, the KoiAqua audio dramas provided the most character development at that point, as it established things such as: (1) You knowing when to hold Chika back to prevent poor Riko from going insane, (2) Kanan and Mari being chill while Dia stresses out in the background, and (3) Hanamaru getting along surprisingly well with Yoshiko’s fallen angel antics while also doting on Ruby. Our favorite yousoro kid provided the most interesting character profile at the time (Anchan once mentioned how “yousoro~” was already popular with crowds back in 2015 when they were promoting the KimiKoko album), and established herself as a popular character from very early on in the history of LLS.
To make it fair for others to get their chance in the spotlight, most people opted to vote for other characters in later polls. Even as a You fan myself, I didn’t vote for You in the 3rd single center election (for HAPPY PARTY TRAIN), and wasn’t really rooting for her in subsequent elections either. Poll results tend to be skewed because people want the distribution of wins to be “fair”. Chika and Riko don’t score too well in center elections because they had “Kimi no Kokoro wa Kagayaiteru kai?”, and You slipped down to around 5th place for the 3rd center election. This doesn’t mean they got less popular - it just means that the votes are going to other characters that deserve a shot at winning.
A center election is kind of like the ultimate prize - the character gets to have the main solo of a song, and be the star of an animated PV. Center elections have been a key part of the LL history ever since the inception of µ’s. These songs are “the story we realize together” as fans can influence what they want to see in the next single. Everyone knows that You is the center of KoiAqua, as it’s a major part of LLS history and is guaranteed multiple performances in live concerts. How many LL fans can you say will remember who the 7-11 image girl is in a year or two? Like, if I had to assign each poll a score of how important it is from 1 to 5, I’d probably give something like the LisAni cover girl a 1, the Sega cover girl a 2, and the center election a 10. Yes, you read that correctly. With how crucial music is to Love Live, you can’t really say that winning the rights to a limited-time figurine or one-time illustration tops a center election win. 
Because You won a major election, that does incentivize people to not vote for her in these polls. However, I think it speaks to You’s popularity that she gets 1st place in nearly every midpoll result despite this. Her ultimately failing to get 1st place at the end of the poll is less of an effort by others to “bring her down”, and more of a push to “raise others up”. Before the midpoll results come out, most people tend to vote haphazardly. After the results come out, people usually choose someone within the top three (as those girls have a better chance at winning) to support and then vote in a more organized manner. That’s how Suwawa and Aikyan ended up in an aggressive Twitter campaign for their girls during the HPT center election - Yoshiko was shown as 1st place while Kanan was 2nd in the midpoll results. The fact that You is nearly always in 1st place before this targeted voting begins is a sure sign that she’s generally popular overall.
It’s not like You never won a poll after the KoiAqua election, either - she won the SIF promo UR election last year, plus she became the LisAni cover girl earlier this year. Granted, the LisAni girl appeals were done while Season 1 was airing, and were made by the seiyuu to boot (so this might be a case of Shukashuu’s popularity helping out), but the fact still remains that it’s You who graced the cover of LisAni Vol. 29 back in May.
Now, what about Yoshiko winning the SIF Anniversary election? Since she already had two wins under her belt, wouldn’t it seem fair to give it to someone like Mari or Ruby?
First off, I did say that these polls aren’t necessarily a popularity contest, but that doesn’t mean that popularity has no effect on the results. The SIF 5th Anniversary Election was a unique poll because unlike other recent polls, it was literally a popularity contest (with a touch of nostalgia, as evidenced by Nico getting first place for µ’s). That meant that people would cast aside whose “turn” it was to win something, as they’d simply be voting for the campaign girl of their choice.
You also have to remember that this poll was a lot more well-known to the global community than other (non-center election) LLS polls due to it being SIF-based and involving all three LL generations. Like, I was actually surprised that Mari scored 2nd place for Aqours in the final tally because she’s not that popular in Japan. However, Mari does enjoy a lot of popularity in the English-speaking community, so I suspect that might have played a role in her final rank. The fact that Mari has yet to win anything might have boosted support for her as well.
As for Ruby - well, I predict that because of the Hakodate arc, we’re going to see a lot more love for Ruby in future polls. I’ve already heard stories of people going to shops and finding that prices for Ruby merchandise have started going up. But because those episodes started airing right as the poll was ending (S2E8 first aired on November 25, and the poll closed on November 26), Ruby was still suffering from relative unpopularity at the time. So, although it would have been nice for either Mari or Ruby to win, they simply didn’t have the numbers to support them.
I think that Yoshiko won the SIF election, and deserved to win, for two reasons: (1) Yoshiko is legitimately a popular character, and (2) Yoshiko hadn’t really won a major popularity contest before this.
Let me explain the second point. Recall that earlier in this post, I asked, “why did a certain girl win a poll? And how much weight should you give that poll?” I answered the second question, but didn’t fully address the first. What the first question amounts to is that if you look at Yoshiko’s two other wins, they were given to her for a specific reason rather than out of popularity.
We can illustrate this with another poll result. Hanamaru was 3rd place in the Sega image girl midpoll results, but ended up first place. If we consider the fact that people have a tendency to avoid voting for You because of KoiAqua, then why not vote for poor Chika instead, who’s never done well in polls? Well, in Hanamaru’s focus episode, she became strongly associated with Rin due to their shared self-consciousness about their femininity. Guess who the Sega image girl for µ’s was?
If it wasn’t obvious, then yes, Rin was the former Sega image girl.
So was this poll really an indication of popularity/fairness, or more like people voting for whoever they thought was the “rightful” winner of a certain prize?
A more famous example is the 3rd center election. This is a story that many people probably know by now, but I’ll tell it just in case: Kanan ranked last place in the 2nd center election, and had been in the bottom ranks for other polls before. The 3rd center election happened to start after S1 aired, and everyone was feeling particularly sensitive about how much Kanan had suffered (both in the anime sense during the Mijuku DREAMER episode, and in the meta sense for not getting a lot of lines initially in S1). People were insanely emotional about Kanan being able to go from the neglected character to the adored, beautiful star of the next major Aqours album, and celebrated triumphantly when it turned out that she actually won the election.
What’s important to remember with these “rightful” wins is that they have no bearing on whether it was that character’s “turn” to win - because if that win should have been given to the character in the first place, why should it count? (Song center elections are an exception to these wins not counting as a “turn”, which should hopefully be obvious by now after my explanation of their importance in LL.)
With that in mind, let’s look at Yoshiko’s first win - the Numazu Gamers election. Yoshiko was perceived as the “rightful” winner of that one because she was the Aqours member who had Numazu featured prominently in her character profile. You does also live in the area, but IIRC this fact was never established until the anime started airing. In addition, Yoshiko is described as an avid fan of gaming - and who better to represent a Gamers store than a gamer herself? Yoshiko did really deserve to win this one.
Now, how about the Uraraji poll? I’m gonna be honest here - I consider this more of a seiyuu poll than a character poll. Because Uraraji is hosted by the seiyuu, the voting for the hosts was really done with the seiyuu in mind. Kanan probably performed well in the midpoll results at first because Suwawa has such a calming radio voice, but ultimately most folks decided that someone else should have a chance to be a radio host. Ainya and Suwawa already have radio shows, and Kinchan has a regular gaming stream, so they were probably set aside for that reason. As entertaining as Shukashuu, Furirin, and Rikyako are, they’re kind of erratic on air and prone to wild behavior (LOL sorry guys).
Anchan was the first host of Uraraji, and has proven herself to be a capable leader of Aqours. She’s also hosted her own radio show before, so it’s likely that she was voted as a safe choice. Arisha, despite her busy schedule, was probably voted in as a combination of (1) being able to keep everyone in line during the show and (2) people wanting Dia to get some love in the polls.
So, what about Yoshiko/Aikyan?
All right, now here’s something I personally remember from Twitter at the time - the Uraraji election was done after Kanan was crowned the winner of the 3rd single election. When Aikyan found out that Yoshiko had slipped from 1st place to 2nd place, she posted an absolutely heartbreaking message about it. I’m too lazy to look for the original tweet, sorry…but roughly, she said something along the lines of it being frustrating to have been so close to winning, despite all the work she put into campaigning for Yoshiko (seriously, Aikyan and Suwawa were spamming tweets every day towards the end of the 3rd center election, going as far as snapping cute selfies to entice people to vote for their character). She vowed that the 4th center election would be her time to be victorious (as 4 is a number associated with death in Asia; quite fitting for a little demon).
(In fact, while it seems like Hanamaru is on most people’s minds for the 4th election - or at least that’s what I’ve seen on social media - I’ve already decided to vote for Yoshiko on behalf of Aikyan. )
I don’t remember where the idea spawned, but I did see a lot of talk afterwards about giving Yoshiko the #1 spot in the Uraraji poll to sort of “make up” for the 3rd center election loss (and also safeguard against Aikyan possibly getting crushed again if Yoshiko happened to not stay within the top 3). Granted, Yoshiko had already been doing pretty well in the poll, but the number of people pledging support for her grew exponentially during this time. Thus, even if you ignore the fact that the Uraraji election was more of a win for Aikyan than Yoshiko, it also happened to be a consolation prize. :\
So with that, we have You with two popularity contest wins under her belt (SIF promo UR poll and LisAni girl) plus a center election win (which alone probably counts as winning, like, 5 polls lol). Yoshiko has one (the SIF Anniversary poll), plus two wins that were sort of given to her. I think it’s safe to say that it seems pretty “fair” for poor Yoshiko to get some love.
In the end, you are allowed to be mad about You not getting more screen time. Does it seem unfair that she’s not winning more polls or getting more screen time? A little, yeah. But the fact remains that she’s a bit too popular for her own good, and she already won a major election (KoiAqua). It’d actually be unfair if You got to have a center song under her belt plus a lot of screen time plus more poll victories. When you take certain factors into consideration, the SIF Anniversary poll is really Yoshiko’s only legitimate popularity vote win. Please don’t abuse the poor fallen angel - she already goes through enough;;
And as a final note: honestly, I don’t really think the polls have too much impact on the anime. It’s already established that the anime-verse is separate from other branches of the series (e.g. Dia not being a school idol fan in the SIF stories, Kanan being the first one to join Aqours in the manga, Maru’s childhood friend being Ruby rather than Yoshiko in the SIDs). Necessities of plot and character growth are what mostly make up screen time. Why would the fact that one of the girls got to be a Sega image girl or a SIF campaign girl have anything to do with this…?
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Text
Covid19
FRI FEB 28 2020
I was really surprised to see that the stock market took a huge shit this week. Just after hitting another all time high, last Wednesday, the 19th, it began to drop last Thursday, and then all five days this week, Nasdaq, S&P, all of them across the board just kept dropping lower and lower every day, with the only thing stopping it being the closing bell of trading today.
It’s been the worst week of decline since October of 2008, with the banking collapse, after the housing bust was already in full swing... but this time, it was due to a sudden panic about Covid19, the coronavirus that emerged in China back in December.
There had been some global concern about Covid19 through January, when it was still contained mostly to China, but through February, cases have been showing up in other concentrated spots all around the globe, leading to a low level panic that finally affected the stock market.
Trump, of course, didn’t bother to address it at all until he saw his precious stock market was falling, and... it was actually his announcement about putting his VP Pence in charge of the virus that really caused the markets to break loose and go into free fall... because in the press conference, it was so painfully obvious to everybody, that Trump has no clue how to deal with a pandemic, and neither does Pence.
And it’s not just stocks, but other market warning signs are flashing, and... as mentioned above, people are talking about 2008, and everybody’s getting into their crash positions for another big recession suddenly.
Well... many are getting into crash positions.  Other pundits are assuring us that everything will rally back to normal next week, like the market’s been doing over and over again for the entire Trump administration.
Of course, my model here, holds that the economy since the early twenty-teens has been a self-driving one, kept on the road by AI bots who have gone to great lengths to fend off the panics that should otherwise have tanked it by now, being caused by a rogue US President and his incendiary tweets... not to mention insane policies like jacking up tariffs on China last year.
And they’re so good at what they do, that I’ve maintained for this entire blog so far, even through Trump’s Impeachment hearings... that a market crash, and/or recession was off the table... no matter how fortuitous one might be in getting Trump removed from office.
So I’ve been truly surprised this week to see this happening.
And now I have to speculate as to why it’s happening.
Are the bots behind this?
The short answer is no.  Their prime directive is, to the best of their ability, to keep the economy on track no matter what.  Same as a self driving car, which only wants to keep driving, avoid accidents, obey the rules of the road, and get from point A to point B as quickly, but safely as possible. 
But just like with a self driving car, there are some factors outside their control. One of these factors is Presidential tariffs... an arbitrary tax thrown in by one man on the outside, at his whim.
I’ve spent many an entry speculating about how the bots must have not only identified Trump as, essentially a virus attacking the system... but went so far as to form a coalition with smarter, more robust AI bots out there on the deep web, to hold Trump to account... by finding and leaking damning evidence to the House, who has the power to impeach him.
And that kind of worked... because Trump forgot about his tariffs.  He wasn’t removed, but the economically destructive behavior he’d been engaging in, was put on indefinite pause... which was good enough to keep things rolling and buy time to find a more effective solution.
As for elections... two entries ago, I talked about how this bot coalition is not interested in tampering with elections.  They’ll step in to prevent tampering if they can, like by crippling the Shadow app in Iowa, which was designed to subvert democracy... but this is a coalition of humanitarian bots, and economy bots, so... they all want to play by the rules, while also avoiding big upsets to society... like an assassination or something. 
But when something like Covid19 appears on the landscape... well, it’s even further outside their control than rogue tariffs.
Real viruses... the biological kind, are an extremely ancient form of life, operating under the complex rules of natural selection, on a very root level.  They’re unpredictable, and can be quite ruthless to higher life forms when they hit on a novel strategy for which existing biological immune systems are not prepared.
That said, biological immune systems are also insanely advanced, and do a very good job of neutralizing viruses... especially when they are helped along by human doctors who can study the DNA of the viruses and produce vaccines to teach immune systems how to fight them before they attack.
This is how we’ve managed to nearly wipe out polio, small pox, and dozens of other deadly viruses... and how we defend the world’s population every year against the latest strains of influenza*.
That said, I’m not convinced that Covid19 is the deadly pandemic threat that everybody’s terrified it could be at the moment.
Because it began in China... an authoritarian nation, we don’t have any reliable information about this virus at all.  We can’t trust their numbers, either of infected or of deaths... we can’t trust their information about it’s transmission methods, contagiousness,  incubation period, symptoms, or it’s origin... not just because we can’t trust them to tell the world the truth... but because we can’t even trust them to properly assess this kind of data.
Autocracies are notorious for brain drain, and clueless bureaucrats running big agencies they don’t understand, so... their data is useless.
Meanwhile, as far as news on the ground in China, all we have is a random sampling of smart phone footage, mixed with state reports, and first hand accounts from people supposedly spying from within China on behalf of the free world... but we have no idea what the true context is for any of this material... or what the agenda is of people who’ve fed this back to us over social media.
Long story short here, I do believe at the moment, that the panic is overblown, and that it’s being overblown by several layers of trolls around the world, who just want to create global panic for the lols.
People in the free world have been studying Covid19 in their own countries, as it’s spread to them, and are sharing that information but... we’re talking about three weeks worth of study on small sample sizes.  There just hasn’t been enough time to fully understand how dangerous this virus really is.
Earlier this week, the big panic was essentially triggered by comparing global death toll numbers, to global estimates for how many have been infected... and that’s resulted in the estimated fatality for Covid19 at 2%... compared to 0.1% for Influenza.
If accurate, that would be a Spanish Flu magnitude pandemic... highly contagious, and extremely deadly.  
But... if the infection numbers turn out to be far higher than we realize... it brings both the contagiousness factor, and the fatality percentage waaay down.  
And just here at the end of the week, this is what it’s starting to look like.
We’re starting to understand that Covid19 is probably a lot more like the common cold, than the common flu... and that the vast number of victims simply mistake it for a mild cold, and get over it quickly.
This, based on the way it’s beginning to pop up with people who are very far removed from any possible contact with known vectors.  
Does it still get serious and cause pneumonia in some victims, taking some of their lives, yes... but this may turn out to be a very small percentage of all infected... more like the 0.1% who die from the common flu.
If so, standard precautions are enough to keep the threat at bay, globally until a vaccine can be produced next year.
Maybe I’m wrong here, but, this is my best guess based on the knowledge we have at the moment... minus the disinformation and trolling.
Based on that... I’d predict that the markets go back to normal in the coming two weeks, as the deadly pandemic fails to materialize.  We shall see.
In other news, the South Carolina Primary is tomorrow.
Most polling suggests that Joe Biden will take first place, by a comfortable margin over Bernie Sanders, who will follow a distant second.  Some outlier polls had Sanders within only one or two points of Biden, earlier in the week, but the conventional wisdom tonight, is that Biden will enjoy a big win in SC.
I still think Bernie can pull off an upset and win SC.  
This is based on the fact that Bernie has so far, consistently over performed his polling... while Biden has consistently under performed his own polling.
You can poll well, but will those supporters actually go out and vote on election day?  That’s the name of the game.  
Biden’s supporters tend to be over represented in the polls, because they are the kind of people the pollsters know how to query... but they aren’t necessarily motivated enough to actually follow through.
With Bernie, it’s the opposite... his followers are under represented by contemporary polling techniques, but are also highly motivated to get out and vote for their candidate... thanks to his extraordinary ground game.
We’ll see tomorrow.
One thing is for certain... after doing so poorly in the first three states, and losing so much ground to Bloomberg in the polling for Super Tuesday states... Biden needs an unmitigated blow out in SC to stay relevant.
And even an unmitigated blow out might not be enough to save his campaign, as there are only two full days between the SC and Super Tuesday, for him to try and leverage the big win enough to influence voters.
On the other hand, all Bernie needs to do is come in a close second... close that gap to single digits... and he’s looking formidable.
Like I said, I think Bernie can overtake Biden tomorrow, at least by a few points... and if he does... he will crush Super Tuesday.
Exciting times.
But I’m going to bed.
*It should be noted here that unlike bacteria... which can be treated with antibiotics, viruses can only be neutralized by the immune system itself... once it knows how to identify the threat.
That’s why some viruses, like HPV, which causes common warts, can be so stubborn and near impossible to eradicate... because they’re good at avoiding immune system detection... but also don’t kill, or even seriously harm their hosts. To kill a wart virus... the only real treatment is salicylic acid applied directly to the spot, nearly constantly, for extremely long periods... months if not years.
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theliberaltony · 7 years
Link
via Politics – FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Our topic for today: PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Namely, is it time for Republicans to panic (in the wake of Tuesday’s Democratic sweep)? And, as a subsidiary question, what should Republicans do now?
But let’s start with that first question … panic or no panic? You decide!
harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): What’s the definition of panic?
micah:
harry: LOL.
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): Panic. Losing control of the House would be huge. And it’s very much on the table.
clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Well, some House Republicans from Virginia are retiring after the state election, so they might well be panicking.
It's my honor to represent #VA06. I cannot begin to express how blessed I am to have had the opportunity to serve. Now is the right time to step aside – I will not seek re-election. My statement: https://t.co/tByoe5vFmO
— Bob Goodlatte (@RepGoodlatte) November 9, 2017
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): They should be moderately panicked. And they should have been before Tuesday. They might still be able to save the House, though.
harry: Yeah, Tuesday was simply a manifestation of what has been apparent in the national polls for a while. Heck, it’s also been apparent in the special-election results. I just don’t think people believed it before seeing it on a big stage like on Tuesday night. Make no mistake, this was in line with the fundamentals, and those are not good for Republicans. Bad enough to lose the House? We’ll see. The Democrats are certainly in position.
natesilver: “We’ll see.”
Give me a prediction!
micah: “We’ll see” doesn’t sound that panic-inducing.
clare.malone: I’m still not sure the Republicans are going to lose the House. That’s still a pretty big lift for Democrats. Tuesday’s results were a good sign for them, for sure. But it’s still a long haul.
micah: Yeah, so a Democrat won in New Jersey. A Democrat won in Virginia. Democrats won a bunch of districts in the Virginia House of Delegates that mostly leaned Democratic. What’s the big deal?
clare.malone: ha ha ha
micah: I mean, I’m only half trolling.
natesilver: It’s not a particularly big deal. It’s just confirmation of lots of evidence we already had that the political climate is good for Democrats.
It’s about what you’d expect when they’re up 8 to 10 points on the generic ballot. But the special elections earlier in the year were also about what you’d expect given those numbers.
(And given that the specials were held in very red districts.)
micah: But then why didn’t Democrats win more red districts in Virginia?
natesilver: They won the governorship by 9 points and flipped the House of Delegates from 2-1 GOP to roughly 50-50. They had a really good night.
micah: I’m not debating that.
natesilver: The focus on red districts is kinda dumb, IMO, because if you look at the totality of elections so far this year, Democrats have done well in some really red areas — Kansas and Montana and South Carolina — that aren’t upscale or suburban at all.
micah: Are you calling me dumb?
harry: Yes.
LOL.
natesilver: I’m saying that analysts in general are chewing too much on not-especially-informative pieces of evidence.
The totality of evidence is good for Democrats. The individual data points aren’t that meaningful.
micah: So we don’t buy the thesis that “state/districts/etc. are snapping back to their default partisanship” — it explains Tuesday’s results but not all those special-election results.
natesilver: Yeah, it explains Virginia well, but there have been a lot of elections this year.
perry: Well, whether Democrats have a 70, 50 or 30 percent chance of winning the House, even 30 (which I think is a low estimate) is a really big panic number for Republicans. Barack Obama’s presidency, in terms of legislation, basically ended the day Republicans won the House in 2010. And Obama didn’t have a special prosecutor after him, with the potential of an impeachment in the House.
natesilver: I disagree that 30 is a big number, Perry. I mean, the majority always has some risk of being lost in the House, since every seat is up every two years. If the chances of losing the House were only 30 percent, I’d be pretty happy if I were Paul Ryan.
The problem for the GOP is that it’s not 30 percent. You could debate between 50 and 70.
perry: I don’t think in, say, 2014 that the Republicans had any real chance of losing the House. It would have been like 10 percent.
natesilver: I guess I should say — the majority party is always at risk if they also control the presidency.
Typically, parties do not control both the House and the presidency for very long.
So if I knew nothing about the political landscape other than that the same party controlled both the presidency and the House, my default might be that the party had like a 30 percent chance of losing the House at the next midterm.
harry: What we’re fighting against here is that people almost always view things through the prism of the last election. Yes, Nathaniel, the political science says what you say, but people get caught in this mindset that this will be the time the science is wrong. (Sometimes it is wrong.) But usually what happens is you end up looking foolish by trying to guess the direction of the polling error.
micah: So, do the contours of Ralph Northam’s win in Virginia matter in judging how panicked the GOP should be?
Like, where did he do well and with whom?
clare.malone: They’ve lost some of the suburban white voters who voted for Trump, right? Which should worry them a bit.
natesilver: Yeah, I think all that shit is overrated.
micah: Wait, Nate, you wrote the other day that there are enough well-educated, relatively well-off suburban districts for Democrats to retake the House.
natesilver: There are enough suburban districts, yeah. So it happens to be true that doing well in the suburbs is more helpful for winning back the House than for winning back the presidency. That isn’t immaterial.
harry: It hurts me when people use bad language.
clare.malone: How much evidence is there, though, that Democrats made inroads with ye olde working class whites?
micah: Right.
clare.malone: Let’s hear it for George W. Bush’s Security/Soccer Moms.
perry: Did we agree with this piece by Nate Cohn of The New York Times that argued that the Democrats still have some problems with white working-class voters that could limit their pickup opportunities next year?
natesilver: I disagree with trying to extract too many signals from Virginia as opposed to the totality of all elections in the past several months.
But Democrats had a pretty “meh” performance earlier this year in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, which is very suburban and wealthy. Whereas what they did in Montana and Kansas and South Carolina is pretty impressive. Here’s a chart from earlier this week (before we had the Tuesday results):
clare.malone: Yeah, but wait, Nate — wasn’t the whole thing that they vastly outperformed there, even while losing?
natesilver: They outperformed more in Montana, Kansas and South Carolina than in Georgia.
I mean, it depends on what benchmark you look at. But the Georgia 6 result was probably the least impressive of any of them.
harry: To quote myself, “To understand the national political environment, it’s always better to look at an average of elections.”
clare.malone: Very Churchillian.
perry: Lol.
natesilver: At least Georgia was a federal race, though! State and local races can give you a sense of the overall political environment. But you should be very careful about getting too cute beyond that. The issues that are pertinent in voting for someone for the Virginia House of Delegates are not the same ones that are pertinent when you’re voting for the U.S. Congress.
micah: I guess, here’s why I would push back on your “overrated” take, Nate. It seems clear that winning back the House will be harder for Democrats than winning the Virginia House of Delegates. (Actually, is that true?) If that is true — or even if it it’s the same — it seems valuable to know the political/demographic/socio-economic makeup of potential pickups for Democrats in the House. What does that sample of seats look like? Isn’t that important given how polarized we are along rural-urban lines? Along racial lines? Etc.?
harry: Oh, I’m not sure that’s true at all.
natesilver: I’m telling you that extrapolating from the Virginia House of Delegates to the U.S. House is dumb.
Also, I don’t agree that winning the U.S. House is necessarily harder. The Virginia House of Delegates is way more gerrymandered than the U.S. House, even though the U.S. House is pretty gerrymandered.
perry: So I would say Panic 8 on a scale of 1 to 10. It sounds like others would rate the Republican panic levels lower?
micah: I’d say 6.8.
harry: I panic over the Buffalo Bills and Columbia Lions. I don’t panic over politics.
natesilver: I’m a 7.8 or something. Not far from Perry.
micah: We’re not interested in how panicked you are, Harry. We’re asking how panicked Republicans should be.
natesilver: But if I’m a 7.8 today, I was a 7.5 on Monday.
clare.malone: I hate how we have to apply numbers to everything.
It’s a 6.
harry: I’ll say 8 is fine.
micah: OK, so now let’s talk: What should Republicans do?!?!?!?
clare.malone: I’m wondering what candidates need to do out in the field. For example, did Ed Gillespie do something weird in not “reading the room” in Virginia — should he have been playing more to those suburban voters?
micah: Gillespie, former head of the Republican National Committee, tried to adopt some Trumpian trappings.
In general, should Republicans just hug Trump close knowing they’re tied to him anyway?
Or should they distance themselves from him?
harry: Why the heck would you embrace a president whose approval rating is in the 30s?
clare.malone: Is it a state-by-state thing — i.e., some states are “Trumpy” and some are not?
natesilver: But what if Republicans not embracing Trump makes his approval rating even lower?
micah: And also you get dinged for having an R next to your name anyway?
Does distancing ever work?
natesilver: Maybe that’s why so many members are retiring. They’re sort of screwed either way.
harry: I guess it depends on whether you’ve cultivated an image of your own brand. In waves, oftentimes it doesn’t work.
I was somewhat surprised Gillespie didn’t try that given he had run before statewide. But he probably had polling that his campaign thought showed they should run hardline on immigration.
perry: Distancing can work. Rob Portman and John McCain ran ahead of Trump in 2016.
micah: But Gillespie’s hardline immigration rhetoric didn’t lead to a rural surge like it did for Trump, right?
natesilver: I think you could say it was more high turnout in blue areas than low turnout in red areas.
clare.malone: Maybe voters found that stuff inauthentic coming from Gillespie? If you were a hardcore Trump voter, you sensed that Gillespie was not your guy. That he stank of the establishment, the past.
harry: I thought it was inauthentic.
micah: Yeah. That’s a good point. It’s possible a lot of Republicans will take away from Virginia that the Trumpian immigration stuff hurts more than it helps, but maybe that was just the messenger.
perry: I do think that sanctuary cities is an issue where Democrats are a bit confused. And maybe Republicans should hit that issue, even if other things Gillespie did will not work.
clare.malone: Yeah, interesting point
natesilver: We did have that interesting test of Trumpian personality versus Trump’s endorsement in Alabama, too.
perry: This is a hard question. If I were running against Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, I would run on the Trump immigration/populism issues. If I’m Barbara Comstock, in a Virginia district just outside of D.C., I would distance.
natesilver: By the way, the fact that Democrats are running somewhat competitively in Alabama, depending on what poll you believe — even before allegations surfaced that GOP nominee Roy Moore initiated sexual encounters with underage girls — is another reason not to take the “this is only happening in blue areas” talking point all that seriously.
micah: That’s why my panic number wasn’t that high — if Democrats win Alabama, then we’ll see real panic!
clare.malone: Yeah, that race — could be a December to remember, people!
harry: I mean, even the worst public polls have Doug Jones down only 11 percentage points. It’ll be interesting to see what occurs there.
micah: Panic-ember
perry: Roy Moore is uniquely something that I think most Republican candidates are not.
micah: Very uniquely something.
clare.malone: Even before The Washington Post report on Thursday, Moore had a lot of baggage in Alabama — enough that I think a lot more moderate Republicans there would not be enthused to cast a ballot for him.
micah: OK, before we turn to policy, it seems like one of our takeaways from Virginia is that voters aren’t stupid — you can’t distance yourself from Trump if you’re really Trumpy, and you can’t run an anti-establishment campaign if you used to run the RNC.
perry: That wasn’t my takeaway. I don’t think Corey Stewart would have won either. He might have lost by more. I don’t think a Trumpy person will win statewide in Virginia.
natesilver: Trump ran, quite successfully, as a populist, even though he’s a rich real estate developer from New York City. So authenticity is always somewhat in the eye of the beholder.
But yeah — Politics 101 if you’re Gillespie is that you want to localize that race, and Northam’s the one who should have tried to nationalize it.
clare.malone: Hey, Harry, what’s that new poll that has Democrat Kyrsten Sinema up by a healthy margin in Arizona’s Senate race against Trumpy Republican Kelli Ward?
harry: Here it is, Clare.
clare.malone: I think the Trumpy thing doesn’t always work outside the primaries for … non-Trumps?
perry: I think Gillespie was trying to do something that I think is smart: Try to hit the Trumpy Republicans with one message, the more white-collar ones with another. Gillespie’s speeches and campaign appearances were not Trumpy. His ads were. He was campaigning with Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio a few days before the election. I actually think increased Trumpiness without full-Trump is probably where most GOP candidates land in 2018.
micah: Interesting …
clare.malone: Not to be very American, but … doesn’t TV often matter more, at least in state races? Not everyone’s going to be seeing you in person.
perry: Of course.
But I’m just saying that Ed was not going around saying “build the wall” in his speeches.
clare.malone: Yeah, fair.
I just think even in the D.C. ‘burbs, those ads hurt him.
perry: I agree.
micah: OK …
Last thing: Policy.
Should Republicans stay full-steam ahead on taxes?
What should they do? Go more bipartisan?
natesilver: I don’t think they should go full-steam on their tax bill, no. Because it’s a fairly toxic bill, politically.
A Bush-style tax cut would have been much smarter politically.
perry: They should write a tax plan that Sen. Joe Manchin, Sen. Joe Donnelly and maybe eight to 10 other Democrats can vote for. A bill with 60 Senate votes would be huge.
harry: I like Perry’s thinking.
perry: So I’m saying what Nate said. The Bush tax cuts got some Democratic votes because they were not written in this way that was bound to draw heavy Democratic opposition.
I have been shocked by how many people’s taxes would increase in a REPUBLICAN tax plan.
harry: How many times have they rewritten that tax plan in the past couple of weeks?
clare.malone: But … how likely are Republicans to make that play for Democratic support?
perry: 0 percent.
harry: As Nate said, this stuff is really unpopular. It’s not good for Republicans.
natesilver: Some people’s taxes would increase — most people’s wouldn’t — but moreover, the benefits of the bill aren’t obvious to taxpayers. Maybe you come out ahead, and maybe you don’t, but you have to do the math to find out how — and a lot of popular deductions are removed, all in the name of lowering corporate taxes.
perry: The realistic path for Republicans is to pass this tax bill somewhat quickly. Don’t spend till March debating it. Get this done. It will not be very popular. But cast this as a sign that you are getting things done. Then, get more things done. Find bills that can pass. You tried on Obamacare. You did taxes. Now, find issues where you can pass a bill and it benefits you electorally. Infrastructure. Dreamers?
I think a bug in my plan is I’m struggling to think of issues that have popular support and on which Republicans agree internally.
micah: I guess I don’t really get why it seems like both 1. Republicans are very likely on track to lose a bunch of seats and maybe the House majority, and 2. Republicans are very unlikely to change anything they’re doing policy-wise.
clare.malone: I mean, Republicans are doing this tax bill thing so they can get money from donors — so that they can even run their races in the first place.
natesilver: Well, they failed to do anything on health care — for a lot of reasons — but you can argue that reflects a responsiveness toward public opinion.
micah:
Lindsey Graham says “the financial contributions will stop” if tax reform fails.
— Alan Rappeport (@arappeport) November 9, 2017
perry: Saying this out loud is not smart.
harry: What a performance.
natesilver: On taxes, the donor base likes the bill, but I don’t know that the voter base has any particular reason to.
micah: Final thoughts?
perry: Final thought: The Republicans should have been worried about 2018 before Tuesday, and Tuesday should make them even more worried.
But I actually don’t know how realistic it is to expect them to change course. Trump is going to Trump. They have a voter base that likes Trumpism. They have members in Congress and a donor base that likes unpopular policies. And they are internally divided on politics and policy, making it hard to shift course.
harry: Republicans have got to figure out something because what they’re doing right now isn’t working. Even if they don’t lose the House, their majority will probably be greatly diminished. That, of course, will only make it more difficult to pass legislation.
natesilver: I think the most important decisions that Republicans made already happened: The approach they took to health care, the approach they’re taking toward taxes, their failure to do anything on infrastructure, etc.
I’m not saying the cake is necessarily baked — there’s a lot of uncertainty, and there are going to be new things to react to all the time, since the president is Donald Trump. But I don’t think there’s any magic plan to avoid a Democratic wave. It may be out of their control. They just have to hope Trump matures a bit in his second year in office, the economy stays pretty good, Democrats give them an opening or two, etc.
But they’re running into the wind, as parties almost are when they’re trying to defend Congress and their president is unpopular.
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askdawnandvern · 7 years
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A Lamb Among Wolves
This was another chapter I ended up splitting into two separate parts due to length. And I've got news for you, there's more down the pipe. Act two is very rapidly becoming the largest act in the story, and the continued input by fans and Patreon backers keeps it growing and growing. My initial plan was to wrap this story up by Christmas, but even if I manage to get back to weekly chapters, I still don't think it will be done till 2018. I swear if I had the time I'd be trying to write two stories at once, but for now I'm relying on my commissioned art and so one to help keep me writing and living...lol.  As for this chapter it ended up finishing up surprisingly well despite having to split it. It made for swapping Dawns perspective to Verns flow super nicely without feeling like the whole conversation was split up abruptly. I hope you guys feel the same way when reading it, and are looking forward to the next chapter.
Please consider becoming a Patreon, get exclusive sneak peeks, chatting access, polls and art suggestions, and etc. Take a look! https://www.patreon.com/wastedtimeee -WT
Chapter Twenty Two: The Best Laid Plans
           Dawn let out a tired yawn as she leaned against Audrey's beat up old truck. Vernon had been gone for several minutes, leaving Dawn little to keep herself occupied other than her own thoughts. It was something she really didn't mind. Although she was certain the wolf was now driving himself crazy trying to find whatever he could add to the picnic supplies in order to make up for the days events. It was something Dawn would consider wholly unnecessary, the picnic itself was more than enough to make her happy. But she knew there would be no convincing her Puppy Love otherwise. The wolf had a stubborn heart, and when she was concerned, Vernon wouldn't rest until he had her smiling again. Still, the benefit of being alone with her thoughts gave her more time to mull over how best to approach the now pressing meeting she needed to have with Dorian without Vernon asking what she was thinking about.
           Out of all the Hunters, the last one she needed to have any inkling that she intended to speak with Dorian privately would be Vernon. The wolf was too invested in his love for her to even consider letting her face Dorian alone. But the more she thought over the confrontation, the more she realized just how unequipped she was to face him. Dawn barely knew anything about Dorian other than he was a sheriff, that he used to be considerably more easy going, and he apparently hated her. Whether that had to do with her being mated to his son, her criminal history or both she couldn't say. But regardless the older wolf clearly had it out for her. And with that bare minimum of knowledge she was sure to push the wolf's buttons in one way or another simply by accident. If Dawn had to face the older wolf, she wanted their discussion to remain as friendly and amicable as possible for as long as it could. She needed to keep a tight hold on her own emotions and remain stoic in the face of whatever Dorian might say. And it wasn't going to be an easy feat without any sort of insight into the wolf proper.
           Dawn heard a cacophony of thuds nearby, causing the ewe to snap to attention. Dawn quickly pushed herself away from the truck, craning her head up to search for what had caused the sudden noise.
"Ha, I told you! I knew you couldn't carry ten cases at once! I win the bet!" Dawn turned to the source of the voice, spying the large supply van parked outside the nearby barn. That familiar chirpy voice could only have come from Qali, and so Dawn wasn't surprised to see the diminutive fox hopping in place near the back end of the truck. Standing right next to her was a very annoyed looking Vanna. The tigress had a paw clasped against her head as she stared down a pile of spilled pie crates which had clearly been the source of the noise.
"Vanna!" Dawn thought to herself as she watched tigress began to scoop some of the fallen boxes back into her large arms. Vanna would be the perfect mammal to ask about how to carry herself when dealing with Dorian. Aside from her willingness to so easily accept Dawn as her sister, the tigress worked with the older wolf. Her and Zach were around the farm more than any of the Hunter siblings, and Vanna knew about how Dorian behaved before whatever changed him. If any mammal could offer the best advice as to confronting Dorian, as well as keep it a secret, it would be the towering tigress. Dawn nodded to herself to affirm her plan before she began a brisk walk toward the pair.
"You owe me twenty Zbucks!" Qali added as Vanna continued to stack cases in her arms.
"Ugh, I'm probably already going to have to pay that much for the pies I just ruined." Vanna lamented.
"Pfft, sure." Qali said, cocking an eyebrow as she crossed her arms. "Like Auddy ever made a single one of us pay for pies before. You're not getting out of this one!"
Vanna chuckled. "To be fair, I almost had them."
"Next time Kitten." Zach said as he clambered out of the back of the van, clutching four cases of his own as he approached the tigress. The wolf gave her a soft pat on the arm as he passed, eliciting a sigh from Vanna. Zach let out a soft chuckle before adjusting his cases slightly and making his way into the barn.
"Vanna!" Dawn signaled the tigress with a wave. Both Qali and Vanna turned their attention toward the ewe as she approached, with Vanna placing the cases she was holding back on the edge of the van before facing Dawn.
"Hey Fluffball! You all right?" Qali chirped, earning a raised eyebrow from Vanna. Qali simply shrugged at the confused tigress.
"What? I'm still running through nickname ideas." Qali replied.
"I-I'm fine, I'm fine." Dawn attempted to reassure the arctic fox as she arrived.
"Good to hear." Vanna replied, scratching the back of her head awkwardly. "I was worried you and Vernon would be feeling pretty bad after...well..." Vanna rolled her eyes, looking away from the lamb as she winced. "With what happened at the fair."
Dawn grimaced, looking down at her feet as she awkwardly kicked at the soft dirt below.
"W-well, I mean..." Dawn stuttered. "I'd be lying if I said it didn't get to either of us." The ewe sighed as she looked back up at the tigress with sorrowful eyes. "Although I'm probably more worried about putting the rest of you in danger be-"
"Aw, you didn't put us out any Dawn." That voice came from inside the moving van, and Dawn turned to find Trenton making his way out of the back with one of the large tubs of corn. The white wolf hopped off the edge of the truck, causing it to bob slightly in time with his jump. Trenton adjusted his grip on the faded blue bucket before approaching  the rest of the mammals. The wolf smiled widely at Dawn.
"We stick up for our family, and we're proud to do it." The wolf added.
"B-but what about your Mother's stand?" Dawn replied, biting her hoof.
Trenton shook his head at the very notion. "Ah, it'll all get worked out, always does." Trenton chuckled softly. "Can't keep a Hunter down."
Dawn tried to smile, to pretend as though the wolf's words had eased her fears, but the weak facsimile she produced clearly wasn't convincing enough as the wolf continued.
"And Ada will be fine, trust me." Trenton added. "Throwing a punch ain't the worst crime in the world. And with Xavi's help I doubt she'll see any hard time."
Dawn let out a long sigh as she gave the wolf a meek nod. She had already heard as much from the other Hunter Brothers, and whether she chose to believe their confident claims or not, it was clear that was all she was going to hear from them.
"Is Vernon holding up okay?" Vanna asked.
Dawn glanced back at the Hunter Ranch over her shoulder, checking to see if the wolf was still inside. With no sign of her Sheepdog, and the doubtless large pile of supplies he'd be carrying, the ewe turned back to the conversation.
"H...He's clearly upset." Dawn muttered. "B-but he promised me he would talk about it while we have our picnic."
"Good." Trenton said, re-adjusting the tub he was carrying. "Don't let him try to worm out of it either, Puppy ain't exactly good with handlin' bad emotions. Doesn't like to burden those he loves with 'em. So he ends up keeping them buried inside till he bursts."
Dawn gave the wolf a sharp and decisive nod. "I won't, I swear."
Trenton smiled, giving the ewe a nod of approval. "I can't see you having too much trouble with that, that Pup would do anything for you."
"Y-you think so?" Dawn replied timidly, twisting a foot in the dirt.
"Vernon told me enough this morning on the ride out. Puppy's got it for ya bad." The wolf held up a paw while balancing the corn bin on his knee. "'Course I can't say anymore, I promised not to embarrass him too much." Trenton said with a chuckle.
Dawn felt a genuine smile creep it's way through the sadness on her surface. She knew her Puppy loved her, but hearing just how much from some other mammals lips, especially close family, made it all the more meaningful. It was just more proof of the wolf's overwhelming pride in being able to call the ewe his mate, and Dawn always found it touching despite the occasional trouble that came with being so open about it. Now it was only strengthening the ewe's resolve when it came to meeting with the head of the Hunter family.
"V-Vanna?" Dawn asked, not fully sure of how to approach the tigress about the plan she had been contemplating. "C-can I talk to you about something for a minute..." The ewe paused, twiddling her hooves nervously. "In private?"
Vanna arched an eyebrow, looking at Trenton and Qali for a moment before turning back to Dawn.
"Um...sure?" Vanna replied, clearly taken back by how oddly Dawn had asked the question.
"Hey! What about me?" Qali interjected, placing a paw on her hip.
"O-oh...well..." Dawn sputtered. "W-well I k-kind of wanted t-to keep it a s-secret."
Qali's ears drooped and she let out a soft whine.
"Oh c'mon! We're sisters! I promise to keep it a secret just as well as Vanna would! Puh-lease!?" The fox continued to whimper as she clasped her paws together pleadingly.
Dawn winced as the tiny fox's eyes seemed to grow as big as saucers. It was clear she knew how to use the weaponized 'puppy eyes' just as well as Vernon did. The ewe looked up to Vanna and Trent for help, flashing unsure eyes of her own at the pair.
"I can vouch for her." Trenton said. "My little Snowflake does a good job of keepin' a lid on private matters, at least as long as I've known her."
The ewe was hesitant to share her problem with more than one member of the family, but Dawn didn't want to snub her new sister despite how important her plan was. Dawn let out a reluctant sigh as she hung her head in defeat.
"O-Okay, you can come too Qali." Dawn muttered.
"YES!" The fox briefly bounced in place in excitement, her tail seeming to lag in the air with each hop before floating back down. "Don't worry, you can trust me! I won't say a thing, I swear!"
Dawn let out another sigh as she shook her head at the diminutive fox. Looking back Trenton's way she caught the wolf chuckling.
"Well I'll leave you to it then." Trent nodded, " Trust you don't need a third considering..."
"T-thank you Trenton." Dawn said, offering a meek smile to the wolf.
The wolf flashed a smile of his own before readjusting his grip on the heavy bucket of cobs. With a grunt, the wolf began to track toward the open mouth of the barn before making his way inside.
With Trenton now out of sight, the ewe motioned for the two other mammals to follow her as she made her way back toward Audrey's truck and out of ear shot of the two brothers who were still working. Qali was off like a rocket the moment Dawn had started moving, keeping in almost lockstep with the ewe. Vanna behaved more casually, taking slow and relaxed strides to cover the ground the two smaller mammals had strode before her.
Once Dawn reached the side of the car, she beckoned the girls to come in close around her. She wanted to keep her voice as low as possible while still being heard, just incase Vernon finally showed up before she had a chance to finish discussing the situation with the girls. While Qali simply leaned in, pointing an ear directly at the ewe, Vanna was forced to crouch, nearly kneeling on the ground in order to bring herself level with the ewe.
Now that Dawn had their attention she could feel a lump form in her throat. She was nervous of what they might think of her idea, but even more so of how they thought Dorian would respond. But she knew it was the only chance she had at making things right.
"I'm v-very concerned..." Dawn stammered quietly. "A-about Mr. Hunter.
Vanna let out a tired sigh. "Don't worry about Old 'Mam Hunter." Vanna replied almost reflexively, as if she had been anticipating this. "He's-"
"Wait." Dawn protested, holding her hooves out to stop the tigress. "It's not about me..." Dawn chewed at her hoof slightly. "W-well not completely."
Vanna and Qali eyed each other in confusion before turning their attention back to the ewe.
"Then what do you mean?" Vanna asked.
Dawn took a deep breath. She was ready to lay it all on the table, and she wanted to make sure she wasn't interrupted until she got it all out or else she might lose her nerve. With a heavy sigh, the ewe straightened her glasses and began.
"B-before Vernon and I came to visit Dorian was on edge." Dawn said. "You've told me so yourself Vanna, that he wasn't always like this."
Vanna gave the ewe a simple nod.
"And then Vernon and I show up and make it worse." Dawn continued. " I mean, incidents at home aside, we must have put a great deal of strain on the old wolf with what happened at the fair. If what you've told me is true it's not surprising the wolf acted the way he had."
"So?" Qali cut in. "What's it matter if ol' Dori's got a bug up his butt?"
"What matters is..." Dawn continued. "That me being here has hurt the family. That Vernon and I have driven a wedge between Dorian and the rest of you."
"He did that to himself Dawn." Vanna interjected. "Sure Dorian has been acting differently for months, but agreeing to kick you out of the fair was out of line."
Dawn shook her head briskly.
"It wouldn't have happened if we hadn't come to the fair. If we had chosen a different week, a different time. Something smaller and quieter. I'm sure Vernon and my relationship is a great deal to take in on top of having the entire family home for a busy holiday weekend. Maybe he would have handled it better if Vernon and I had approached this whole thing differently, eased the older wolf into it." Dawn sighed. "I should have challenged Vernon's plans a bit more than I did when it came to setting this up, then maybe we could have met Dorian under better circumstances."
"Dawn-" Vanna tried to speak, but the ewe held her hoof up once more.
"But that's all in the past." Dawn asserted, readjusting her glasses. "The only thing I can try to do now is fix this mess. To try to undo what we caused, and maybe get to the root of what's bothering Dorian, even if it turns out to just be me."
Vanna sighed, shaking her head in dismissal.
"So what are you gonna do?" Qali asked.
Dawn took a deep breath, shaking her upper body in an attempt to cast out her nervousness and steel herself.
"I need to talk to him." Dawn said. "Alone."
Vanna's eyes widened, clearly the tigress was in shock. The large tigress opened her mouth, only to close it again as she seemed at a loss for words. Qali however, certainly wasn't.
"Are you crazy!?" Qali yelped.
"Qali!" Vanna hissed, glaring at the tiny fox.
"What, it is crazy!" Qali asserted, placing her paws on her hips before throwing her glance at Dawn. " Whatever crawled up Dori's butt and died only got worse when you guys showed up. He's clearly got something against you!" Qali gestured a paw to Dawn. "And you want to go talk to him by yourself!?"
"While I'm not going to jump to extremes like my sister..." Vanna winced. "I will agree that I don't think that is such a good idea."
"I had a feeling you'd say something like that." Dawn said, shaking her head in disappointment. "But how else am I going to begin to get to the root of the problem if I don't try to talk it out?" Dawn spread her hooves as she gestured to the girls. "Even if it's just me that's the source of the problem, I'm never going to change his mind if I don't try to work through it with him."
"But you can't just go in there alone!" Qali pleaded. "You gotta let us back you up!"
Dawn shook her head in a decisive decline.
"I have to do it by myself." The ewe asserted. "If anyone comes with me it's just going to make Dorian more defensive, and more than likely lead to a shouting match. If I go alone I stand the best chance of keeping the conversation calm and collected. And that's the only chance I have at getting through to him."
"Dorian's a stubborn wolf." Vanna said, placing a paw to her head. "Once he's got himself set on something, it's hard to sway him to change his position."
"Yeah, I mean look at Vernon!" Qali piped in. "I mean how long did Papa Hunter keep on him about being a cop? I still don't think the Old Mams let it go! So what chance are you going to have at-"
"I need to try Qali." Dawn said. "For me, for Vernon, for this whole family. I owe it to all of you."
Vanna let out a groan as she placed her head in her paws. An uneasy silence hung over the group for a few moments before Vanna finally croaked out a reply.
"Fine..." Vanna grumbled. "But for the record, I think this is a terrible idea."
"You're going to just let her do it!?" Qali yelped.
"Dawn can do what she wants, she's an adult." Vanna replied. "Besides, what's the worst that could happen?"
Qali looked at the tigress in disbelief, her ears straight and stiff and mouth agape as she stared back at Vanna.
"He could!" Qali sputtered. "I mean he's! I!" The little fox shook her head briskly. "I don't know what! But it's going to suck!" Qali spat.
"He ain't gonna hurt her." Vanna replied bluntly.
"The worst that could happen would be that he chews me out." Dawn added. " It's not like I haven't heard that sort of talk from other mammals that hated me, and I'm prepared to endure it this time." Dawn sighed. "At least then I'll know the exact reason why he's acting the way he is."
"But we have to help somehow!" Qali spat. "We can't just let you do this all by yourself!"
Dawn cleared her throat, adjusting her frames slightly as she turned her attention to Vanna.
"W-well actually. It would help to get an idea of exactly what I'm getting myself into." Dawn scratched the back of her head awkwardly. " I don't know very much about the wolf, but considering his nature and job I can't imagine he's going to take it easy on me." Dawn sighed. "I need some advice on how to hold my own against him. Things I should avoid, and how he tends to act in a conversation or argument. I need to be able to withstand anything he can throw at me."
Vanna let out a sigh of her own before easing herself the rest of the way onto the ground. The tigress crossed her legs, resting one of her paws on her knees before gesturing to Dawn to do the same. The ewe was quick to obey, easing herself into a similar seated position before leaning in attentively toward the tigress. Qali continued to stand in place for a few moments, crooking her head in confusion before seeming to get the idea and sitting herself down. Unlike Vanna and Dawn however, the arctic fox simply kneeled, scooching closer to the others and leaning in intently.
"Well, first off..." Vanna said, clearing her throat. "It is important that you go in there one hundred percent sure of yourself. If you show any kind of weakness, Papa Hunter is going to pounce on it in an instant."
"A-any weakness?" Dawn stuttered.
The tigress nodded. "Dorian didn't get to the top position at the station for no reason. The mammal is an expert in law enforcement, and an extremely shrewd when it comes to interrogation." Vanna said coolly. " He can make any mammal feel guilty, which is part of the reason they ended up taking him off interrogation duty."
Dawn bit at her hoof nervously. "I-I don't know if I can be o-one hundred percent on a-anything." Dawn muttered. "Especially when I'm nervous."
"Yeah, that seems kinda impossible." Qali added.
Vanna raised a finger. "The important thing is that you have to believe you aren't guilty of anything going in there. Or at least appear you feel that way." The tigress crossed her arms. "You have to go into his office as if you are a bystander. A victim, not a suspect."
"B-but what if he brings u-"
"Change the subject, evade him." Vanna cut the ewe off. "Do not admit fault, and believe what you are saying. You need to keep the pressure on him, not let him put it on you." Vanna placed her paws on her knees. "Keep it related to your visit and the fair, don't let him dredge up your past. It's not relevant to the weekends events."
"O-okay." Dawn said, twiddling her hooves nervously.
It was then Vanna reached out, bringing her paw on Dawn's shoulder. The large tigress gave it a firm squeeze as she stared right into Dawn's eyes. Vanna's intense glare made Dawn shudder, it was the coldest look the tigress had given her since they had first met. There was nothing but a deadly serious in her gaze.
"You have to swear to me you can do that." Vanna said sternly. "I won't let you go in alone otherwise unless you swear to me, firmly and without hesitation that you can handle it."
Dawn was quick to swallow the hard lump that had formed in her throat, giving the tigress a brisk and decisive nod.
"Yes." Dawn said. "I can do it! I will do it!" The ewe continued to nod briskly until she felt Vanna release her grip on the ewe's shoulder.
"Papa Hunter says he can smell bullshit a mile away." Vanna said, her cold stare relaxing into something more comfortable.
"V-vernon said that too." Dawn replied. "He said they all had it supposedly."
Vanna nodded. "Good intuition, Papa Hunter is quick to say it runs in the family. But it's not unbeatable." Vanna said, placing her paws back on her knees. "If you believe what you say firmly enough, it should keep him from aggressively pursuing that topic." Vanna raised a paw. "If a shark can't sense blood in the water, they can't find their prey."
Dawn nodded briskly. It was certainly going to be hard, but at least now she had some semblance of a strategy when it came to what to expect from Dorian.
"And like Vanna said, you got to keep Papa Hunter on his toes!" Qali added. "You keep the ball in his court, keep him answering questions rather than asking his own!"
Vanna nodded. "You keep the pressure on him, don't let him latch on to something or he'll never let you get a word in edgewise. Once he's got his teeth in something, he's not going to let up."
"When Trenny first introduced us, I talked the Old Mam' under." Qali giggled. "I sent him running for his office because I just kept asking him all sorts of stuff."
"You do that to everyone." Vanna chuckled, rubbing the fox's hair with one of her massive paws. Qali tried to push back, swatting playfully at Vanna's paw. But the tigress didn't stop until the fox simply gave up.
"Mutton chops." Dawn muttered, placing a hoof over her mouth. "I-I wanted this to be an amicable conversation, b-but you make it sound like I s-should be ready for war."
Vanna let out a tired sigh. "Don't feel to badly Dawn, these days Papa Hunter seems to see most of us as the enemy when it comes to prolonged conversation." The tigress placed a paw to her temple. "Especially when any of us bring up how he's been acting."
"T-that's another thing I w-wanted to ask you about." Dawn said, tapping her hooves together gingerly. "Earlier today you said that D-Dorian wasn't always like this, that he used to be much softer only months ago." Dawn scratched her head. "Do you remember anything that could have...you know..." Dawn tapped her muzzle as she tried to find the right words. "Caused him to change like that?"
Vanna shook her head. "Not that I can think of." The tigress tapped a claw to her chin.
"Not a thing?" Dawn frowned. "Anything at all?" The ewe was looking for something to latch on to, any thread she could snare to glean some reasoning other than her arrival that may be vexing the older wolf.
Vanna continued to scratch her chin, rolling her eyes as she evidently searched her thoughts.
"W-well Yuri got suspended for a week from active duty around that time. He was pretty furious at him for that." Vanna grumbled. "Although to be honest that happens once a year at least."
Dawn considered the idea, but judging by Vanna's uncertainty, it seemed like it was a weak lead.
"Hmm..." Vanna's tone sounded as if she had something, and Dawn leaned forward in anticipation.
"I remember a few of our officers were discharged for some reason..." The tigress murmured. "I never heard why exactly, I think Dori handled it personally."
"So you don't know anything else about it?" Dawn persisted, hoping to jog Vanna's memory.
"It was some sort of corruption thing I think. A couple of the old timers on the force got the boot." Vanna shrugged. "But that's the most I heard about it. It was all handled very quietly. Very hush hush."
Dawn let out a sigh. It wasn't much to go on, but it was something at the least. Perhaps Dorian knew the mammals and was upset to find that they had been involved in corrupt activities. Or perhaps Dorian had been involved in some way. Dawn couldn't imagine a mammal like Dorian, one who seemed to regard the law so highly, and was so respected in the Meadowlands community to be capable of such a thing. Then again, the ewe knew plenty of mammals that looked at her as an upstanding, moral politician before betraying that trust and nearly destroying the city itself. Perhaps it was this reason that repelled Dorian from her so sharply,  because they had been more alike than the wolf wanted to admit.
"You don't think he was involved in that stuff do you Vanna?" Qali piped up, stealing the question right off of Dawns muzzle. The tigress arched an eyebrow before shaking the notion off.
"Pfft...'Ol Papa Hunter is as straight as an arrow." Vanna replied. "He'd never do anything illegal, he's a law dog through and through."
"I don't know, you did say he's been acting way different lately." Qali continued. "How can you be so sure?"
Vanna scoffed. "I've known the mammal for four plus years Snowball." The tigress chided. "He's been a grump since I signed on, but he's always followed the law to the letter. He wouldn't even cut corners on me or Zach." Vanna placed a paw to her head. "We've both have more than enough traffic tickets between us to vouch for that."
"You'd be surprised to find what 'good mammals' can be capable of." Dawn muttered sadly. It was something the ewe hated to suggest, but as living proof of it, it was simply a possibility that could not be denied.
"That's not Dorian." Vanna replied. "He just isn't like that."
"You said Auddy had mentioned Dorian was even less irritable before you came on the force right?" Dawn asked. "And that it only got worse recently?"
Vanna nodded, crossing her arms as the lamb asked her questions.
"I don't know...I mean...it could still be..." Dawn trailed off. "Maybe even something petty?"
"He wouldn't do it. I'd stake my badge on it." Vanna replied firmly.
"Well then...I suppose I'm just as much at a loss as when I started." Dawn sighed, placing a hoof to her forehead. For Vanna's sake she was willing to take the tigress' word on it for now, but it was a possibility that would still linger in her mind as something to explore. "But I still have to talk to him regardless. I have to try to get through to him."
"This stinks." Qali sighed. "There's got to be something else we can do to help!"
Dawn looked down at her lap uneasily. "W-well there is another thing I need you to do for me, but..." Dawn raised her head to look at the mammals again, now with a sharp frown. "But you aren't going to like it any better."
"You want us not to tell anyone?" Vanna evidently knew what the ewe was going to say next. Dawn gave a slow, affirmative nod.
"What!?" Qali raised her voice, to which Vanna immediately shushed her. The arctic fox grasped her muzzle, shutting it tightly before speaking again in a lower tone.
"This is the secret you wanted us to keep?" Qali huffed. "What if things go south? What if you need our help after all?"
Dawn sighed. "Then I'll ask for it. But otherwise I can't have any of the other Hunters know I'm going to do this." Dawn placed a hoof to her head. "Especially Audrey or Vernon."
"Because either one of them would probably fight Dorian if he gave you a hard time?" Once again, Vanna had hit the nail on the head. Dawn nodded.
"I'd rather not want to cause such a huge fight that Vernon stops speaking to him, or Audrey kicks him out, or worse." Dawn protested. "The last thing I want to do is break up a family over something so stupid."
"This isn't stupid." Qali muttered, crossing her arms. "It's wrong."
"Regardless of how you feel about this I need you both to swear to me you won't tell." Dawn clasped her hooves together, shaking them pleadingly. "Please, I need you to promise."
Vanna let out a long, exhausted sigh. Slowly the tigress raised a paw, placing the other across her heart.
"I swear, from one sister to another, I'll keep my maw shut." Vanna said.
Qali let out a irritated groan, her arms remaining firmly crossed as she turned her head up to the sky.
"Ffffine!" She huffed. "Sister swear, I won't tell." The diminutive fox brought a paw to her muzzle, drawing a phantom zipper from one side to the other.
With that, Dawn let out an immensely relieved sigh. She felt better being able to tell someone what she had planned to do, despite them more or less refuting the idea. And even though she had little to draw from about exactly what could be irritating Dorian other than herself, she at least had something. It was enough to make the ewe more confident about the difficult task that lay ahead.
"But if things get rough, kick him in the shin and run away!" Qali added. "that always works on big mammals!"
"Qali!" Vanna hissed. "She's wants to make it better, not worse!"
The arctic fox shrugged. "That's why I said 'if things get rough'."
The loud clack of a screen door drew the girls attention away from their huddle. Near the front door of the Hunter Ranch, Vernon had finally appeared. The large wolf was surprisingly unencumbered, carrying what looked like a traditional style picnic basket with an orange plaid colored sheet sticking out of it. He also appeared to have something slung over his shoulder, but the ewe couldn't make out just what it was. Despite the seemingly small number of items he was carrying, the wolf's face looked beleaguered, as if he had been running himself ragged while inside the ranch. Dawn was quick to scramble to her feet, in an effort to keep the wolf's suspicion down about exactly what she was talking about. The other girls were quick to follow suit as the tired looking wolf lightly jogged over.
"Hey Floofs, sorry that took me so long." The wolf huffed. Vernon dragged the sling over his shoulder free to reveal what he was carrying on his back. It looked to be some sort of crock-pot or melter that he had placed in a carrying case.
"I had to find the portable heater to melt the butter for the corn." The wolf sighed, running a paw over his scalp. "Can you believe it was in the bathroom cabinet of all places?" Vernon chuckled as he slung the cooker back over his shoulder.
"And I still got to roll the grill out of the barn." The wolf said, pointing a thumb toward the worn old barn. "But we should be all set to go."
Dawn flashed a wide smile. "Oh I can't wait to get started Puppy. I've been looking forward to this all day!" The ewe clapped her hooves together excitedly.
Vernon smiled back, but as he glanced around he arched an eyebrow as he seemed to finally notice Vanna and Qali.
"Oh, were ya'll talking?" Vernon asked. "About nothin' bad I hope."
"No, w-we were uh..." Dawn trailed off.
"Just having some 'girl talk'." Qali chirped happily.
Vernon placed a paw to his head, letting out a groan. "Oh no, already?" He chuckled. "Should I be worried about what secrets you've been telling Honey Lamb?"
"Worried?" Vanna cut in. "More like proud from what she told us, 'Puppy Love'." Vanna had tried to make the pet name sound as sultry as possible, but it sounded odd coming from the tigress' muzzle. Even so, it had the desired effect, and Vernon blushed intensely, nearly dropping the basket he was carrying.
"A-Alright, alright, I don't want to know anymore!" The wolf whined, placing a paw over his muzzle.
To add to the distraction, a growing rumble drew the groups attention toward the barn. Zach and Trenton were now making their way over, with Zach rolling a small, metal grill in front of him. As the wolves joined the group, Zach spun the handles of the metal grill Vernon's way.
"Hey Vern, thought I'd save ya the trouble of getting this fer yer little picnic." Zach said.
"I told you about that?" Vernon asked in surprise.
"I heard ya'll mention it at the uh..." Zach paused, clearly uncomfortable. "Well you know...durin' that ugliness at the fair."
Vernon grimaced slightly, looking at Dawn in concern briefly before turning back to the russet wolf.
"Oh...yeah..." Vernon mumbled uneasily. "T-thanks Big Bro." Vernon placed a paw on one of the handles, leaning against the grill slightly. The wolf let out another sigh before giving his head a terse shake. With it the wolf stood back up, a renewed smile crossing his muzzle.
"W-well then if were all done here..." Vernon coughed. "Ready to get movin' Honey Lamb?"
Dawn did her best to smile through her worry. It was best to start practicing now in preparation for facing Dorian. The ewe placed her hooves behind her back, beginning to sway back and forth slightly as she managed to give the wolf a playful grin.
"T-that depends..." Dawn giggled. "You got enough room to carry me Puppy Love?"
Dawn could see Vernon's tail begin to wag wildly as a bright grin crossed his muzzle.
"Sure as shootin' I can!" The wolf said excitedly.
In seconds the ewe found herself scooped into Vernon's free arm, and he quickly eased her up onto his left shoulder. Once Dawn had properly seated herself, the wolf slowly released his grip and returned his paw to the grill handle. With a kick he tilted the grill back onto its wheels.
"Welp, I'm guessin' we'll see ya'll after dinner." Vernon said. The others seemed to quickly catch his infectious grin Vernon was wearing aside from Vanna, who limited herself to a light smirk.
"You two have fun." Trenton said, raising his paw and flicking his fingers in a small waive. "We'll be inside if ya need anything."
"Heee-eeeey Trenny." Qali whined as she began to grasp at Trenton's paw. Dawn watched the wolf's ears perk up, and the white wolf turned his attention to the diminutive fox pawing at his side.
"Carry me too, Puh-leeze..." The fox continued to whimper as a pitiful frown crossed her muzzle. The arctic fox's sorrowful eyes seemed to glimmer as she pleadingly stared back up at her mate. "I'm tired from lifting all those boxes!"
"All three of them." Vanna remarked.
Qali threw a quick sneer Vanna's way before turning back on the pathetic stare.
Trenton drew a paw over his scalp, letting out a tired sigh.
"Anything fer my Snowflake." The wolf chuckled. Trenton leaned down, extending his arm out to the small fox and allowing her to climb onto it.
"One ski lift coming up!" Trenton announced, bringing the giggling mammal up to his own shoulders before seating the fox behind his head. "Top of slope, everyone off!" Qali buried her muzzle into the hair on the wolf's head, doing her best to stifle the steady laughter erupting from her. Trenton flashed the couple another waive before turning toward the house and walking off.
"Yeah, have a good picnic." Zach added as Vanna placed a paw on his shoulder. The tigress let out a barely audible whine as Zach turned his attention to her. He glanced at her in confusion briefly before a dull look crossed his face.
"Kitten no." The wolf said bluntly. "Do you really even think I could carry you?"
Vanna was silent for a moment, her eyes evading his as she mumbled a reply.
"I-it looks fun..."
"Kitten you'd put me in the hospital!" Zach said, rolling his eyes as he began to walk toward the house. Vanna kept her paw on his shoulder as she followed after, flashing Dawn a smirk as she passed by.
"You could at least try..." Dawn could hear Vanna mumble.
"Kitten, please." Was the last thing Dawn heard before they were out of earshot. The ewe couldn't help but giggle to herself at the very thought of Vanna trying to ride on Zach's shoulders.
"Welp, we should get moving. I got to get the corn on the grill if were ever gonna eat it." Vernon said with a chuckle. Dawn leaned over, wrapping her hooves tightly around Vernon's neck to stabilize herself.
"Lead the way Puppy, I'm famished." The ewe said, squeezing the wolf in a short hug. "And I could use some 'cuddle time'."
The ewe could feel a slight shudder travel through the wolf's body, and she knew instantly his tail was wagging again.
"Alright Lamb Fry, hold on tight!" Vernon replied.
And with that the wolf was off toward the corn field. It wasn't a very long trip as the wolf took off in a brisk jog toward his desired destination, earning giggles from Dawn the whole way as she held tightly on to her wolfy steed. Vernon slowed down as he came to the edge of the orange and yellow corn stalks, coming to a full stop just short of where the field truly began. Easing Dawn off his shoulders with care, the wolf was quick to pull the large plaid cloth free of the picnic basket he had stored it in. With Dawn's help the wolf gingerly laid it down and spread it out as flat as he could. It took some effort as the light wind that had kicked up seemed to be keen on undoing their work, and eventually the wolf had to use a combination of large, loose stones, as well as the grill and basket of supplies to hold down the loose corners of the blanket.
Once the area was settled, Vernon insisted that Dawn get comfortable while he went to work. Dawn's protests were quick to fall under the wolf's persistence, and soon the ewe found herself simply watching as the large wolf busied himself preparing everything he had planned for the meal. First the wolf prepped the grill, making sure the gas was flowing and lit before pulling a few cobs of corn from the picnic basket. They were already tightly wrapped in foil, and the wolf saw fit to leave them that way as he lowered them onto the hot skillet. Next he set the melting pot down on the blanket, emptying three bars of butter from the basket into the pot and turning it on. As the wolf began to add seasonings to the rapidly melting butter, he started to tell Dawn all about how the family went about making their particular style of roasted corn. And mostly about how his Mom had always been insistent on teaching the boys how to cook from a very young age. As it turns out, Audrey had always been very keen on educating her sons how to survive on their own, especially after she found out Dorian couldn't cook or wash to any degree. Apparently Auddy had went out of her way to make sure she only ever had to deal with one overgrown puppy rather than eight.
When the wolf was seemingly satisfied with how well the corn had cooked, he put the heated cobs on a large plate. Taking his place next to Dawn and the melting pot, the wolf took one of the cobs, skewering it with two small handles on either side, before removing a small brush from the nearby basket. Stirring it into the butter mixture, the wolf peeled away the hot foil before slathering the cob in steaming butter.
Dawn watched intently as the wolf made multiple passes, making the cob practically dribbling with savory butter. The ewe found herself starting to question just how many calories the cob was gaining with every stroke before she suddenly found it thrust in front of her face. The wolf gestured for her to take it.
"Go on." Vernon said with a smile. "You'll love it."
Dawn warily took the cob by one of the skewers, bringing it near her mouth as the wolf released his grip. Now with both hooves on either end, she gave the wolf another uncertain glance.
"It's a vacation Honey Lamb, don't worry about the how much weight it's gonna add! Just enjoy it!" Vernon gave the ewe a playful nudge, arching his eyebrow and donning a mischievous grin. "Besides, I like that curve you got going on."
Dawn gave the wolf a playful swat. "Ver-noooon!" Dawn whined.
"C'mon, stop stallin' and take a bite." The wolf jibbed.
Dawn took a deep breath before bringing the cob to her mouth. The moment she dug her teeth into it her mouth was filled with the most heavenly flavor she had ever tasted. The corn was both sweet and savory, with just a hint of spice, and the pleasant crunch of the snapping kernels' made it all the more enticing. The ewe let out a slight moan as she greedily chewed through her first bite.
"Good?" Vernon asked.
"Mhh!" Dawn moaned through her second mouthful, she hadn't been able to wait till her mouth was empty to respond. The food was simply too scrumptious for her to stop.
She could hear Vernon chuckle to himself as he bit into a cob of his own. And for the next few minutes very little words passed between the pair other than simple groans of pleasure as they ate through multiple cobs of buttered corn. By the time Dawn was full, the ewe had managed to annihilate four cobs on her own, a personal record for her. Looking over at Vernon, the wolf seemed to have made it through six himself. She watched the wolf pat his stomach, letting out a satisfied sigh as he placed his plate on the far end of the blanket.
"All done?" The wolf asked.
Dawn gave a brisk nod, wiping her mouth with one of the napkins the wolf had set out for them. "If there's going to be a dessert, I'm going to have to be done." Dawn chuckled.
"O'course there is." Vernon said, leaning over to take her plate.
"Can't have roasted corn without some of Ma's famous pumpkin pie." Vernon placed her plate next to his own before leaning back on his paws.
"Then yes, as hard as it is to say this, I can't have anymore corn." The ewe said with a giggle. Vernon smiled widely at the ewe before patting his paw on the blanket next to him, gesturing for the ewe move in close. Dawn didn't hesitate, taking the opportunity to sidle up to the wolf, resting her head on his lap.
The two had turned their attention to the sun, which now lay low over the corn field. The sky was draped in a deep, dull orange, and if Dawn looked hard enough, some of the brightest stars in the sky could be seen just starting to peek out of the daylight haze. It wouldn't be long now before the sky was heavy with sparkling lights, hanging like diamonds in a dark satin sheet.
After the practically bi-polar twists and turns the day had brought, this moment was a beautiful reprieve for the ewe. It was simply her and her Puppy Love. Alone, with no one to judge them, no one to bother them. Just the two of them and the beauty of nature. Dawn let out a contented sigh. This moment, this very instant, was just as Vernon described it would be. It was just what she wanted more than anything out of the trip, and she found herself wishing it would last forever.
But as she felt the wolf gently start to pet her head, she heard a small whine escape his muzzle. That one tiny noise had brought her back from her reverie and reminded her of what she had to do. Despite everything, she knew her Puppy was still hurting, and he needed to let it out. And the time had come to do just that.
"V-vernon?" Dawn uttered.
"Mhh?" The wolf replied.
Dawn let out a sigh, swallowing hard before she managed to build up the courage to continue.
"Are you okay?" Dawn asked timidly.
The wolf let out and exhausted sigh.
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enduredxdefiance · 7 years
Note
Random question [forgive me]. You know that scene in Saving Private Ryan where they take a German post and one of there guys die? Eventually there is a confrontation between Mike Horvath and Richard Reiben? My question is, in that scenario, who would War be? Which soldier would have been her in that scene?
[Lol, I’m assuming you’re watching Saving Private Ryan or have recently seen it. You most definitely win the award for most random question. Still! I will answer it as best I can. Though I had to re-watch this scene a few times to kind of analyze everyone.]
So what’s basically going on in this scene is that Private First Class Reiben is no longer confident in his Captain’s ability to lead and he no longer believes in their mission. He decides that he’s going to desert the squad, which ends up in him getting into a confrontation with Sergeant Horvath. Their argument get’s pretty intense, and Sgt. Horvath ends up pulling a gun of Reiben. Now, there are several different reactions by each soldier in this scenario.
First off, there is Horvath who is pointing the gun at Reiben and threatening to shoot him. He’s loyal to the Captain, and continuously orders Reiben to fall in line until he’s had enough of his insubordination altogether. He would rather shoot him then let him desert his brother’s in arms and he isn’t afraid to let him know it. He’s pretty much in a screaming match with Reiben, threatening him and calling him a coward.
The second reaction is from Reiben himself, who doesn’t seem to particularly care that his Sergeant has a gun in his face. He even urges Horvath to shoot him, telling him to “put his money where his mouth is and do it then”. He’s so strongly against the mission at that point that he doesn’t care if he goes to the stockades or if he gets gunned down by his own Sergeant. He’s upset that they are sacrificing a whole team just to save one man.
Then you have Private Jackson, who is the sniper of the team. He’s a bit conflicted by the scenario. He expresses how the situation between Horvath and Reiben is complete “bullshit”. At first, he urges the Sergeant to just let him go, since it was what Reiben wanted, though Horvath completely ignores him. He then tries to urge Captain Miller to intervene before the situation escalates. As things start to get more out of hand he actually pulls his gun as well and points it towards the Sgt, though it isn’t fully raised off the ground at him.
Upham is more frantic about the whole thing. At first, he tries to get between the two a bit, though he isn’t physically doing anything. As soon as Horvath pulled his gun, he immediately called out for Captain Miller’s attention, hoping the Captain would quickly defuse the situation. When he doesn’t do anything, Upham quickly runs over to the Captain and tries to urge him to stop Horvath and Reiben. He’s desperately pleading with the Captain and the distress is clear on his face.
Mellish pays no attention to Horvath and Upham and instead goes right to Captain Miller. He’s trying to convince him that Ryan is dead and that they should head back rather than risk their lives for a dead man. He clearly agrees with Reiben but not to the extreme to actually desert the team.
Then there is Captain Miller, who says nothing for most the confrontation. Just before things get out of control, he defuses the situation by calmly telling the others who he was back in the states, which the others had apparently had a poll on.
Now, that leaves the question of who War would be in all of this. I think, given everything, War would be either Horvath or Jackson. For one, Horvath’s dialog would be similar to what War would say.
Reiben: “You gonna shoot me over Ryan?”
Horvath: “No, I’m gonna shoot ya because I don’t like ya.”
Reiben: “Then why don’t you just do it Sarge? Do it man. Put one in my leg and give me that million dollar ticket-”
Horvath: “I’m gonna shoot you in your big goddamn mouth!”
Reiben: “Then put your money where your mouth is and do it then!”
Horvath: “You don’t know when to shut up, you don’t know how to shut up.”
War is an extremely loyal soldier, but her loyalty is more towards her team, so someone trying to abandon them would be the ultimate betrayal to her. To her, that is something completely unforgivable, and she would definitely pull a gun on someone for it, especially if it was another MES. However, I’m not exactly sure she’d do the same if it was just another soldier.
If it was another soldier and not an MES, she would probably be more like Jackson. She’d be frustrated by the situation but she wouldn’t want it to come down to bullets. War would rather the Sgt. just let the coward go and walk away. If things started to get heated and she was worried someone might fire, she’d most likely pull her own weapon to try and talk them down. 
Hopefully this answered your question?
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preciousmetals0 · 4 years
Text
Dow 25,000? Get Real; Robinhood’s Most Wanted … Is Carnival?
Dow 25,000? Get Real; Robinhood’s Most Wanted … Is Carnival?:
Enema of the State
I’m in a mood today, dear reader, so let this be a warning that a rant is incoming.
First, let’s start out with today’s astonishing development that sparked this Great Stuff mood.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 25,000 today — the culmination of a 35% rush off its March lows. The S&P 500 Index is also on fire, gaining a similar 35% to trade north of 3,000.
Remember when everything tanked back in March? Wall Street was worried about the coronavirus’s impact on the U.S. economy and corporate earnings — and stocks took a roughly 35% haircut. (35% again? Is that like the new 42?)
The markets are now less than 12% from their February pre-pandemic plunge highs, and you need to ask yourself some critical questions as an investor…
Are things really that good right now?
People are going back to work with the “Grand Reopening,” but tens of millions remain unemployed. Business activity is picking up, but many consumers choose to stay home and stay safe from the virus. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the economy might not fully recover until the end of next year.
On the corporate earnings front, first-quarter profits fell by the fastest rate in more than a decade.
Due to the coronavirus’s impact, S&P 500 companies saw earnings collectively plunge 13% on a per-share basis. And that data includes at least two months of a fully open U.S. economy. What will the next quarter look like? The one after that?
This certainly doesn’t look like a “12% away from all-time highs” market or economy to me. Does it to you?
So, Mr. Great Stuff, why are stocks rallying?
That’s an excellent question, and I have an answer: hope and unlimited stimulus.
In the movies, billionaires like Bruce Wayne step in with their snazzy PJs to save humanity from crises like these. They swoop down, solve the problem and everything goes back to normal in less than three hours on the big screen.
Despite what you might think about Elon Musk and his ilk, they aren’t pushing to reopen the U.S. economy for your benefit. They haven’t solved the coronavirus crisis. It’s still out there. It’s still rampaging across the country. More than 1.6 million are infected, and the numbers are rising. Nearly 100,000 are dead.
These supposed modern-day “superheroes” push to reopen the economy because they’ve seen profits plunge 13%. It’s hitting their bank accounts, and that’s serious.
Serious enough to push an economic reopening without a cure or approved treatment in place. That push fuels hope that things aren’t as bad as they seem.
Meanwhile, with unlimited stimulus propping up the whole shebang (and driving interest rates through the floor), what else will you do with your money? Save it? Pay down debt?
Lol, as if. This is America.
You’d buy stocks. You’d help drive the Dow and the S&P 500 back to their all-time highs — whether the economy reflects those gains or not.
But how long can you, the retail investor, hang on? Will you last through the coming second wave of coronavirus infections? Can you withstand a second economic shutdown?
One is coming. COVID-19 can lay dormant for two weeks without showing symptoms. We will all know just how sideways things have gone with the reopening in about a month. The question is: Will you be prepared for the fallout?
Click here to make sure you know what lies ahead … whether you think you’re prepared or know that you’re not.
The Good: [Insert Neo and The Matrix Joke Here]
Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) maker Nio Inc. (Nasdaq: NIO) clambered back into the headlines this week on positive sales data. According to China Daily, Nio CEO William Bin Li livestreamed a presentation on the company’s EVs, which led to 320 vehicle orders and $21 million in sales.
Not too shabby for a CEO livestream. Now imagine if he did it on TikTok!
The bigger excitement surrounding Nio, however, is the company’s deal with China’s Anhui province. Nio will reportedly move to Anhui’s capital city, Hefei, in exchange for $981 million in new funding. Anhui will also take a 24.1% stake in Nio.
There are two massive caveats for investors here:
First, as part of the deal, Nio and Anhui will create a new company that holds all of Nio’s assets. What that means for U.S. investors remains unknown.
Second, there’s that pesky U.S. Senate bill targeting Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges. The disclosure of foreign-government ownership could directly affect Nio under this new deal.
So, while Nio has become one of the most popular stocks on Robinhood, buyers really need to beware of the fine print on this Chinese stock.
Besides, we have better opportunities stateside — especially with Trump’s “Re-Declaration of American Independence,” his mission to bring manufacturing and growth back to American soil from overseas. Click here for the scoop.
The Bad: Robinhood’s Most Wanted
Coming in at No. 8 on Robinhood’s most wanted list, Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) has seen an unnerving bout of enthusiasm lately.
The stock saw a significant boost this week following the Memorial Day holiday weekend, after throngs of people threw caution to the wind and rushed out into bars and local watering holes. Once again, we’re looking at you Lake of the Ozarks partygoers.
The idea is that once the CDC lifts its No Sail Order in July, Carnival ships will once again flood with passengers looking to party and forget weeks of at-home quarantine. I’m not sure what gives investors this level of confidence — especially since there’s no vaccine or cure for COVID-19 right now.
But CCL stock certainly is popular.
Even today’s announcement that AIDA Cruises (a Carnival subsidiary) would extend its pause in operations through July 31 didn’t faze CCL investors. AIDA said that international regulations surrounding the pandemic remained unclear, preventing its return to business as usual.
The easing of pandemic-related lockdowns is one thing. It’s another thing entirely to be locked up on a boat at sea for weeks (or potentially longer) if your ship happens to be unlucky enough to have an outbreak.
Once again, buyer beware.
The Ugly: Luckin Nuts
Shares of Chinese caffeine purveyor Luckin Coffee Inc. (Nasdaq: LK) have surged more than 89% in the past two days.
Why? Because investors be crazy. That’s why.
If you don’t remember Luckin, it’s the Chinese coffee company that fabricated roughly $300 million in sales. It just made up cash out of thin air like it was the U.S. Federal Reserve or something.
CEO Jenny Zhiya Qian and Chief Operating Officer Jian Liu were both fired over their roles in the scandal. Luckin faces the very real threat of bankruptcy. LK’s trading was suspended, and the company received a delisting notice from Nasdaq.
Seriously, though … why are people buying this garbage stock?
Well, according to a Reuters report, there’s a chance that Yum China Holdings Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) and other competitors are interested in buying Luckin’s assets, including the company’s popular smartphone app and its customer data.
Now, that sounds nice and all, but it doesn’t mean that the proceeds raised will save Luckin from insolvency. Furthermore, if the company sells its most valuable assets to stay afloat, what exactly are investors left with?
No, dear readers, avoid this coffee nightmare like the plague.
Debates over free speech? Whack.
Completely nonsensical market environments? Whack.
A Wednesday without your Poll of the Week? Now that would be whack.
It’s Poll of the Week time!
With all the divisive news out there, let’s talk about something that definitely won’t ruffle any feathers or split any political hairs — regulations! (OK, I could hardly keep a straight face there.)
Love it or hate it, the regulation pendulum could swing ‘round soon for overseas companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. At least, if the House picks up what the Senate is putting down.
With the Luckin calamity top of mind, we want your take on Chinese stocks in particular today.
Are you buying up Chinese stocks amid the talks of tighter regulations or have you steered clear completely? Let us know below!
By the way, boy was last week’s Poll a blowout! We asked you whether or not you’ve invested in the biotech sector — you know, that whole medicine-making lifesaving shtick?
By and large, Great Stuff readers are gung ho about biotech investing, with about 82% of you having ventured into the sector.
Another 14% want to see what all the Big Pharma hoopla is about — and for good reason. I mean, Great Stuff readers have already seen an insane 117% gain on our trade with Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: INO) … not that I’m bragging or anything. Seriously, I’m proud of all of you who got in on that win!
Now, I can’t say when the next biotech opportunity will come up … you know, uncertain markets and whatnot. But trust me, you’ll be the first to know if a Great Stuff Pick comes along!
In the meantime, if you’re still want to chase the biotech bounty, just remember that it can be treacherous terrain until you find treasure.
Don’t go into the great biotech market alone — Click here!
Great Stuff: You Write, We Listen!
Another week, another edition of Reader Feedback! If we’re being honest here, this is one of my favorite parts of the week…
It’s simple: Every email you send us … every message you write … we appreciate it all! From the rants to the raves, you have the entire Great Stuff team in stitches sometimes.
So, why not drop us a line this week?
Send us a message at [email protected], and you might see your email in tomorrow’s edition of Reader Feedback! Remember, you can always catch up on the latest Great Stuff on social media: Facebook and Twitter.
Until next time, stay Great!
Joseph Hargett
Editor, Great Stuff
0 notes
goldira01 · 4 years
Link
Enema of the State
I’m in a mood today, dear reader, so let this be a warning that a rant is incoming.
First, let’s start out with today’s astonishing development that sparked this Great Stuff mood.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 25,000 today — the culmination of a 35% rush off its March lows. The S&P 500 Index is also on fire, gaining a similar 35% to trade north of 3,000.
Remember when everything tanked back in March? Wall Street was worried about the coronavirus’s impact on the U.S. economy and corporate earnings — and stocks took a roughly 35% haircut. (35% again? Is that like the new 42?)
The markets are now less than 12% from their February pre-pandemic plunge highs, and you need to ask yourself some critical questions as an investor…
Are things really that good right now?
People are going back to work with the “Grand Reopening,” but tens of millions remain unemployed. Business activity is picking up, but many consumers choose to stay home and stay safe from the virus. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the economy might not fully recover until the end of next year.
On the corporate earnings front, first-quarter profits fell by the fastest rate in more than a decade.
Due to the coronavirus’s impact, S&P 500 companies saw earnings collectively plunge 13% on a per-share basis. And that data includes at least two months of a fully open U.S. economy. What will the next quarter look like? The one after that?
This certainly doesn’t look like a “12% away from all-time highs” market or economy to me. Does it to you?
So, Mr. Great Stuff, why are stocks rallying?
That’s an excellent question, and I have an answer: hope and unlimited stimulus.
In the movies, billionaires like Bruce Wayne step in with their snazzy PJs to save humanity from crises like these. They swoop down, solve the problem and everything goes back to normal in less than three hours on the big screen.
Despite what you might think about Elon Musk and his ilk, they aren’t pushing to reopen the U.S. economy for your benefit. They haven’t solved the coronavirus crisis. It’s still out there. It’s still rampaging across the country. More than 1.6 million are infected, and the numbers are rising. Nearly 100,000 are dead.
These supposed modern-day “superheroes” push to reopen the economy because they’ve seen profits plunge 13%. It’s hitting their bank accounts, and that’s serious.
Serious enough to push an economic reopening without a cure or approved treatment in place. That push fuels hope that things aren’t as bad as they seem.
Meanwhile, with unlimited stimulus propping up the whole shebang (and driving interest rates through the floor), what else will you do with your money? Save it? Pay down debt?
Lol, as if. This is America.
You’d buy stocks. You’d help drive the Dow and the S&P 500 back to their all-time highs — whether the economy reflects those gains or not.
But how long can you, the retail investor, hang on? Will you last through the coming second wave of coronavirus infections? Can you withstand a second economic shutdown?
One is coming. COVID-19 can lay dormant for two weeks without showing symptoms. We will all know just how sideways things have gone with the reopening in about a month. The question is: Will you be prepared for the fallout?
Click here to make sure you know what lies ahead … whether you think you’re prepared or know that you’re not.
The Good: [Insert Neo and The Matrix Joke Here]
Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) maker Nio Inc. (Nasdaq: NIO) clambered back into the headlines this week on positive sales data. According to China Daily, Nio CEO William Bin Li livestreamed a presentation on the company’s EVs, which led to 320 vehicle orders and $21 million in sales.
Not too shabby for a CEO livestream. Now imagine if he did it on TikTok!
The bigger excitement surrounding Nio, however, is the company’s deal with China’s Anhui province. Nio will reportedly move to Anhui’s capital city, Hefei, in exchange for $981 million in new funding. Anhui will also take a 24.1% stake in Nio.
There are two massive caveats for investors here:
First, as part of the deal, Nio and Anhui will create a new company that holds all of Nio’s assets. What that means for U.S. investors remains unknown.
Second, there’s that pesky U.S. Senate bill targeting Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges. The disclosure of foreign-government ownership could directly affect Nio under this new deal.
So, while Nio has become one of the most popular stocks on Robinhood, buyers really need to beware of the fine print on this Chinese stock.
Besides, we have better opportunities stateside — especially with Trump’s “Re-Declaration of American Independence,” his mission to bring manufacturing and growth back to American soil from overseas. Click here for the scoop.
The Bad: Robinhood’s Most Wanted
Coming in at No. 8 on Robinhood’s most wanted list, Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) has seen an unnerving bout of enthusiasm lately.
The stock saw a significant boost this week following the Memorial Day holiday weekend, after throngs of people threw caution to the wind and rushed out into bars and local watering holes. Once again, we’re looking at you Lake of the Ozarks partygoers.
The idea is that once the CDC lifts its No Sail Order in July, Carnival ships will once again flood with passengers looking to party and forget weeks of at-home quarantine. I’m not sure what gives investors this level of confidence — especially since there’s no vaccine or cure for COVID-19 right now.
But CCL stock certainly is popular.
Even today’s announcement that AIDA Cruises (a Carnival subsidiary) would extend its pause in operations through July 31 didn’t faze CCL investors. AIDA said that international regulations surrounding the pandemic remained unclear, preventing its return to business as usual.
The easing of pandemic-related lockdowns is one thing. It’s another thing entirely to be locked up on a boat at sea for weeks (or potentially longer) if your ship happens to be unlucky enough to have an outbreak.
Once again, buyer beware.
The Ugly: Luckin Nuts
Shares of Chinese caffeine purveyor Luckin Coffee Inc. (Nasdaq: LK) have surged more than 89% in the past two days.
Why? Because investors be crazy. That’s why.
If you don’t remember Luckin, it’s the Chinese coffee company that fabricated roughly $300 million in sales. It just made up cash out of thin air like it was the U.S. Federal Reserve or something.
CEO Jenny Zhiya Qian and Chief Operating Officer Jian Liu were both fired over their roles in the scandal. Luckin faces the very real threat of bankruptcy. LK’s trading was suspended, and the company received a delisting notice from Nasdaq.
Seriously, though … why are people buying this garbage stock?
Well, according to a Reuters report, there’s a chance that Yum China Holdings Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) and other competitors are interested in buying Luckin’s assets, including the company’s popular smartphone app and its customer data.
Now, that sounds nice and all, but it doesn’t mean that the proceeds raised will save Luckin from insolvency. Furthermore, if the company sells its most valuable assets to stay afloat, what exactly are investors left with?
No, dear readers, avoid this coffee nightmare like the plague.
Debates over free speech? Whack.
Completely nonsensical market environments? Whack.
A Wednesday without your Poll of the Week? Now that would be whack.
It’s Poll of the Week time!
With all the divisive news out there, let’s talk about something that definitely won’t ruffle any feathers or split any political hairs — regulations! (OK, I could hardly keep a straight face there.)
Love it or hate it, the regulation pendulum could swing ‘round soon for overseas companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. At least, if the House picks up what the Senate is putting down.
With the Luckin calamity top of mind, we want your take on Chinese stocks in particular today.
Are you buying up Chinese stocks amid the talks of tighter regulations or have you steered clear completely? Let us know below!
By the way, boy was last week’s Poll a blowout! We asked you whether or not you’ve invested in the biotech sector — you know, that whole medicine-making lifesaving shtick?
By and large, Great Stuff readers are gung ho about biotech investing, with about 82% of you having ventured into the sector.
Another 14% want to see what all the Big Pharma hoopla is about — and for good reason. I mean, Great Stuff readers have already seen an insane 117% gain on our trade with Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: INO) … not that I’m bragging or anything. Seriously, I’m proud of all of you who got in on that win!
Now, I can’t say when the next biotech opportunity will come up … you know, uncertain markets and whatnot. But trust me, you’ll be the first to know if a Great Stuff Pick comes along!
In the meantime, if you’re still want to chase the biotech bounty, just remember that it can be treacherous terrain until you find treasure.
Don’t go into the great biotech market alone — Click here!
Great Stuff: You Write, We Listen!
Another week, another edition of Reader Feedback! If we’re being honest here, this is one of my favorite parts of the week…
It’s simple: Every email you send us … every message you write … we appreciate it all! From the rants to the raves, you have the entire Great Stuff team in stitches sometimes.
So, why not drop us a line this week?
Send us a message at [email protected], and you might see your email in tomorrow’s edition of Reader Feedback! Remember, you can always catch up on the latest Great Stuff on social media: Facebook and Twitter.
Until next time, stay Great!
Joseph Hargett
Editor, Great Stuff
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snkpolls · 5 years
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SnK S3E14 Poll Results (Manga Reader Version)
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The poll closed with 355 responses. Thank you to everyone who participated!
Please note that these are the results of the manga reader poll. Anime only watchers are suggested not to read if you do not wish to be spoiled about certain events! Anime only viewers, click here to view your poll results!
RATE THE EPISODE 346 Responses
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Despite some negatives about the animation of this episode, 87% of the fandom enjoyed it overall, giving it positive votes!
Animation's not movie quality, but damn it was a good episode
I think it lacks some kind of tempo: some moments are stretched out, others are too short.
Could've been paced better, better music choices, less cgi roof shingle focus and could have cut the thunder spear flashback or at least have shortened it... but it didn't look terrible. Although, I wish the fight had a bit more "weight" to it, with moments such as eren punching reiner ( "This is the place where I once called home!" )
Loved it!
Reiner Vs Eren looked a bit stiff, but overall it was a great episode.
The mUSIC WAS SO BOMB
IT WAS SO GOOD I CANT WAIT FOR THE NEXT ONE WIT NEVER CEASES TO IMPRESS
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING WAS YOUR FAVORITE MOMENT? 346 Responses
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Levi agreeing to fight the Beast Titan was the winner in this category with 31.5% of the vote. The Thunder Spears in action come in second place and Levi sassing Erwin in third.
Levi the madman not losing any of his sass
Liked Erwin’s monologue
Reiner and Erwin’s inner monologue was pretty nice in this episode imo. I like the manga just as much as the anime but hearing their voices in the anime, especially Erwin’s, made those scenes heavier and much more real to me.
Hange looked amazing!
WEAPONRY! It's the way to get it done! WEAPONRY! It's effective and it's fun!
WHO DID YOU FIND YOURSELF ROOTING FOR MORE? 346 Responses
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With the 81.8% of the votes, Eren was getting the majority of cheers from the fandom, while only the 18.2% were rooting for Reiner. 
Seeing Anime people hating Reiner hurts my feelings. Specially because it will take a lot of time until we see the Marley arc  
WHICH SIDE OF THE WALL WOULD YOU RATHER BE ON? 345 Responses
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89.3% of respondents agree that they’d much rather be inside of Shiganshina facing off with Reiner than dealing with the threat of the Beast Titan.
STRATEGY MAPS: WHO DID IT BETTER? 345 Responses
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This question has a more equal response, with 54.2% of the fandom believing that Isayama did it better with the Strategy Maps while the 45.8% preferred WIT’s animation of it.
HOW MUCH DID YOU SYMPATHIZE WITH ERWIN AS HE REFLECTED ON HIMSELF? 348 Responses
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33.3% of the fandom sit directly in the middle between sympathizing with Erwin and feeling that he needs to shoulder the responsibility of his decisions, while 28.2% of respondents truly sympathize with him.
Erwin's speech was the moment I was holding my breath for in this episode, and it was done justice. Not as impactful to me personally as the manga version, but justice done. And that's all I'm asking for.
That look on dead!Mike's face... It was revolting, because real, alive Mike would never have looked at his best friend like that. And that just tells us how terrible Erwin's own perception of himself is... God, he deserves a hug. :'(
HOW MUCH DOES IT HURT TO SEE THE 104TH ATTACKING REINER? 347 Responses
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This answer had a lot of relatively equal votes! About 40% of respondents overall didn’t feel too badly about the 104th attacking Reiner, while 23.3% of the fandom felt neither sad nor happy about seeing the 104th attacking Reiner.
104 kickin ass?!?! bless the lord?!?!
If I was anime only I would be happy seeing Reiner's suffering. But as a manga reader I felt a bit of sadness when I saw him being attacked by the SC.
RATE HOW WELL THE ANIME ADAPTED THE CHAPTERS OVERALL: 347 Responses
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The fandom seems very pleased with the adaptation of chapters 75-76, with 49.3% ranking it at a 4, while 36% of respondents gave it a 5.
I was so looking forward to Erwin's reflection moment, especially the scene in which he stood on top of all of the corpses. Really well adaptated, just as I expected it to be (even though it was better in the manga, maybe because it was my first contact with it)
Great, faithfully adapting some aspects from the manga, but still the quality should've been a lot better. I hope WIT would rise the standard bar in the future episodes. Overall, it was satisfying to watch.
WERE YOU SATISFIED WITH THE ADAPTATION OF EREN VS. REINER? 347 Responses
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Overall the fandom gives the adaptation a pass, with 64.6% of respondents feeling it went about as expected, while 21.3% believe that it was worse than their expectations. The remaining 14.1% felt it exceeded their expectations.
IMO they really could've done better with the OST in Eren vs Reiner fight.
Eren vs Reiner could've had better music to fit the scene. It was a little generic?
Although the adaptation of the Eren vs Reiner fight wasn't as good as I was expecting, I still enjoyed the fight. Definitely wasn't as disappointed as a lot of other people are. I just hope they do my Boi Bert justice next episode.
HOW PUMPED WERE YOU TO SEE PIECK’S TITAN UP CLOSE? 348 Responses
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As expected of Pieck! With a slight winning edge, 36.8% are hyped for best girl, while 36.5% feel that WIT captured the eeriness of her titan perfectly! 10.6% felt she looked very cool.
I RABU MY CUTE WIFE PIKU
This design fits her more than the initial one Isayama did back when he wanted to have a middle aged man instead of Pieck. So yeah, I like this one more.
I feel like the Cart Titan looks more feminine than it does in the manga.
It'll be very surprising if she suddenly talks or makes a short noise in the anime version lol
Cart Titan might be my favorite character design of any anime, cartoon, or show. She’s just as beautiful here as in the manga.
They made the eyes more feminine. But it clearly resembles Pieck
I’ve been waiting so long for this I’m satisfied and excited af :’)!!!
GIVEN WHAT HAPPENS LATER, DO YOU THINK ERWIN’S PLAN WAS A GOOD ONE? 347 Responses
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64.6% of the fandom feel that Erwin’s plan is the best decision they could have made, while 16.7% feel that while the plan was good, there may have been better options.15.9% are still not sure of the answer.
I don’t even know my own name anymore
This episode really cemented the fact that Erwin never stopped caring about his dream to find out the truth of the world and that Levi made the wrong choice.
Erwin no
DO YOU FEEL THAT ERWIN’S REFLECTIVE MONOLOGUE HAD THE SAME WEIGHT AS IT DID IN THE MANGA? 344 Responses
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Erwin’s self-reflection is an emotional part and adds important weight to Erwin’s character! 56.1% of the fandom thinks that the scene was as good as they remember it in the manga, while 25.3% were more deeply impacted by WIT’s rendition of the scene. 18% felt that it could have been done better.
I WAS NOT READY FOR ERWIN'S MOUNTAIN OF CORPSES I DID NOT KNOW IT WOULD HAPPEN SO SOON AND IT CRUSHED ME
WIT does action well, but character moments not so much. The mountain of corpses was almost too big imo. Somehow it had more impact in the manga. Making things bigger and more extreme doesn't necessarily make them more intense in terms of emotional impact.
WHAT DID YOU THINK ABOUT THE ANIMATION AND SOUND EFFECTS OF THE THUNDER SPEARS? 345 Responses
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Well over half of the fandom were pleased with the animation and effects of the Thunder Spears. We’ve been waiting a long time and it seems the vast majority of us were not disappointed! :’)
seeing some of the thunder spears in action made their function and operation easier to understand.
YAASSSSSSSSSSS!!! THUNDER SPEARS MAH BOISSS!!
Oh man I did not expect the thunder spears to make those high-pitched squeals but it was actually amazing
Thunder spearsssss
WHICH SCENE FROM THE PREVIEW ARE YOU MOST LOOKING FORWARD TO? 347 Responses
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With 44% of the vote, manga readers are most looking forward to seeing the Bertl Bomb™! Following behind that at 23% is seeing Marco get eaten by Araki Titan, and 17% of respondents are looking forward to Armin and Bertolt’s confrontation.
I'm REALLY looking forward to watch Marco's death (even though they already showed it in the Lost Girls OVA) and the flipping Serumbowl, which will be epic "
really good cliffhanger, left me uhhhh,,, hung
BERTPISODE WHEN
The ending scene really hyped me up for what's coming
Can't wait to see the corps get obliterated by rocks
GIVE ME THE BIG SWEATY......... LET ME ENJOY HIS LAST ANIMATED MOMENTS :(
These week long waits keep getting worse
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON THE EPISODE?
WHERE’S MY MOBLIT? THEY CAN’T JUST KILL HIM OFFSCREEN WITHOUT EVER SHOWING HIM! :(
Seeing Anime people hating Reiner hurts my feelings. Specially because it will take a lot of time until we see the Marley arc
It was so so slow. I mean I loved every second of it but it was painfully slow, they showed every characters thoughts. Not a bad thing, but not good either idk. I guess it has to build up the tension before the battle.
Does Hanji get prettier with each passing episode?
Needs more Sawano
Aside from the slow/awkward reiner vs eren fight, the animations were honestly sO amazing! the smooth ODMG animations and the Thunder Spears—even down to Reiner sliding back down the wall; it was verryy impressive! In addition, the pacing is honestly perfect and it draws out quite the tension and emotion! Loved it!
I remember reading Eren saying "This is where I...where we..once called home! I'm taking it back!" in the manga and I was like "YES! DO IT!!" but in the anime it didn't have that feeling. Not to mention that the OP had a better punch animation than the actual episode? The second half of the brawl felt more in tune (probably helped by the music that carried from Erwin's part of the episode).
I hope there are gonna be as little changes as possible. WIT butchered one arc already, let's hope they won't repeat those mistakes.
WHERE DO YOU PRIMARILY DISCUSS THE SERIES? 331 Responses
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Thank you to everyone who participated! We’ll see you again in a few days! 
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