#German Economy and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck

[mariacallous]

Robert Habeck, Germany’s minister for industrial policy and climate protection, has ruminated that the job of astute leaders is to unknot the contradictions of politics—the kind that can stop policymakers cold and run administrations aground. Germany’s coalition government of Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats have barreled into a thicket of contradictions that illustrate just how confounding energy and climate policy—and the larger endeavor of obtaining climate neutrality—will prove as the sacrifices it demands of society grow.

Polls, for example, show that Germans are earnestly worried about the climate crisis and in favor of more climate action. The fallout of global warming is one of their most pressing concerns, indeed as it is across Europe. And yet, when it comes to modifying their lifestyles or paying higher prices to curb emissions, most say they’re not willing, or only as much as it doesn’t sting.

Habeck’s ministry is weathering this contradiction in the form of a nasty backlash against its efforts to transform Germany’s heating sector, which accounts for 15 percent of the country’s emissions and has recently become a geopolitical red-button conundrum in light of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. (Germany had previously relied on Russia for about half of its natural gas; in September 2022, Russia cut off its gas exports to Germany until Berlin lifts sanctions against Russia.)

In contrast to the electricity sector, which Germany has been decarbonizing for decades, heating is practically virgin territory—in the form of hundreds of thousands of buildings, offices, homes, and factories, too, that heat their rooms and power their furnaces with gas. Insulating the country’s building stock is treacherously slow: It happens building by building, and the likes of wood pellets, solar thermal, deep geothermal, and bioenergy are not considered sufficiently scalable.

These deficient options explain why the preferred plan is to electrify heating, primarily through the mass installation of heat pumps. An energy-efficient alternative to furnaces, heat pumps—like an air conditioner in reverse—use electricity to transfer heat from a warm space to a cool space. The most common pump is an air-source heat pump, which moves heat between a building and the outside air. By replacing gas boilers, the newest generation of heat pumps can reduce energy costs by as much as 90 percent, and cut emissions by about a quarter relative to gas and three-quarters relative to an electric fan or panel heater. As carbon prices climb higher, gas will become ever more expensive, and in the long run, heat pumps will be the less costly buy.

But the sticking point that the front guard of climate action—to which the Green politician Habeck definitely belongs—must confront is the mindset of his countrymen as the ecological modernization of their society and economy advances. The challenge is to get better at anticipating the degree of sacrifice the everyday German is willing to bear—and ready them for it, one way or another. In Germany, nearly two-thirds of households still heat with fossil fuels, and in a time of inflation and uncertainty, heat pumps are a hefty investment for households on a budget. An air-source pump—about the size of a travel trunk—will run $20,000 to $30,000, including installation, which is about twice as much as a new gas boiler.

This is why hell broke loose when the Habeck ministry’s draft law was leaked to the press (reflecting points agreed upon by all three parties in their 2021 governance treaty). It stipulated that old oil and gas heaters that break down after 2024 must be replaced with modern heating systems, namely units that rely on renewable energy for 65 percent of their energy use. This disqualifies gas and oil systems, and amounts to a de facto ban on new fossil fuel heating systems. In the draft plan, the government agreed to subsidize 30 percent of all heat pump installations.

This pronouncement jarred many people, and the government began to see before its eyes nightmare visions of the 2018 “yellow jacket”  protests in France, when working-class French people took to the streets en masse in opposition to fuel taxes. Not only Germany’s boulevard press but even the Green Party’s coalition partners turned on Habeck, thundering that this measure wasn’t in the coalition contract (though it was) and that this was far too great a burden to impose on working Germans from one day to another (which the Greens had tried to address but were stifled by their partners.) According to a poll conducted by the arch-populist Bild-Zeitung, which led the charge, 61 percent of Germans were worried about the cost impact. Somewhat fewer respondents thought the ban of gas and oil heating was wrong-headed in the first place.

In hindsight, the Greens should have known better than to so flagrantly expose their Achilles’ heel: the perception that German Greens are elitist snobs with no feeling for ordinary folk with ordinary problems. But the party came around quickly on the snafu, introducing measures to subsidize boiler replacement for low-income people by 80 percent. The size of the subsidy is staggered by income, starting from the original 30 percent for the well-off. Middle-class earners (about $65,000 a year) would qualify for a 40 percent subsidy. People older than 80 are exempt from the law, according to the Green proposal.

The takeaway from the fiasco is that political leaders must test the waters and prepare the ground for the dramatic changes that are around the corner. “One era is drawing to an end—another is beginning,” said Habeck. “Because we’ve waited so long to act, these wide-ranging changes will impose on people’s day-to-day lives.”

“Today, it is becoming increasingly clear that virtually everything must change as soon as possible: housing, driving, heating,” writes Die Zeit editor Petra Pinzler. “The energy transition is no longer something that is negotiated at distant climate conferences or in political circles in Berlin and that can be avoided. It has arrived in everyday life. Many people are now realizing that something also has to change in their own boiler room.”

Veit Bürger of the Öko-Institut think tank told Foreign Policy that the changes in store for Germany and all countries seriously involved in decarbonization will affect society’s strata unevenly. “It won’t be win-win-win,” he said. “There will be new winners in the long run, sure, but those hit in the short run, like people with lower incomes, they have to be brought along, too.”

The law still isn’t in the bag: it has to pass both houses of parliament. Perhaps by Jan. 1, 2024, when it should take effect, Germans will have warmed up to a brave, new future of electrical heating. It is, though, as Habeck intoned, a harbinger of much greater changes to come.

[head-post]

German building renovation “failed,” housing sector says

Representatives of German corporate and government landlords told a gathering in Berlin that the country’s focus on reducing the energy consumption of buildings had failed, according to Euractiv.

Germany is preparing for early elections to be held on 23 February due to the collapse of the coalition government of the Social Democrats, Greens and liberals. Ahead of the election campaign, representatives of the housing sector called for a change in policy regarding the decarbonisation of buildings.

Meanwhile, Axel Gedaschko, president of the German Association of Housing and Property Companies, accused the Greens of raising transition costs.

Climate protection in existing buildings, as we are currently doing it, is a ‘mission impossible’. […] Anyone who is not completely blind will recognise that the historical focus […] on energy savings has simply failed.

Building renovation rates were “stuck at just 0.7% for years,” despite subsidies of €18bn a year for building renovation, Gedaschko said. Despite efforts to invest in insulation for existing homes and strict energy efficiency standards for new buildings, “the specific energy consumption [per square metre] has hardly been reduced over the last ten years,” he added.

He also called for a focus on “climate efficiency instead of energy efficiency.” Meanwhile, Social Democratic construction and housing minister Klara Geywitz said she had consistently “spoken out against rigid individual renovation targets.”

The decarbonisation of the heat supply [is] more important than an unaffordable general renovation obligation. The fundamental conflict was between the economy ministry’s focus on energy efficiency and the affordability of construction.

Geywitz blamed the crisis on his government colleague Robert Habeck, who was the Greens’ candidate for chancellor this weekend. Habeck, who originally wanted to attend the event himself, was forced to cancel at the last minute in order to stay longer at the COP29 climate summit in Baku.

Read more HERE

[bopinion]

2024 / 27

Aperçu of the week

"Some day, following the example of the United States of America, there will be a United States of Europe."

(George Washington)

Bad News of the Week

Viktor Orbán has always been the loose cannon of European politics. Optimists had hoped that when Hungary takes over the rotating EU presidency for the second half of 2024, he would act just as statesmanlike as his equally right-wing Italian predecessor Giorgia Meloni did. Far from it.

First, he founded the new right-wing alliance "Patriots for Europe" with like-minded parties. He also won over the Austrian FPÖ (Freedom Party of Austria), whose chairman Herbert Kickl has a good chance of taking power in Vienna in the upcoming elections in the fall. Together with the Czech ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens), an axis is emerging here and others are showing interest. Their agenda is not surprising: rejection of migration, a stop to the "Green Deal", no support for Ukraine and a "dismantling of European integration" in favor of national sovereignty - in short, against Europe.

Orbán then made a "diplomatic visit" to the Kremlin. Officially to mediate. As the first EU head of government since the start of the Ukraine war. And above all, as many EU representatives hastened to point out, without a corresponding mandate from the European Union. He has always been close to Vladimir Putin and distant from European democracy. Apart from a few pretty photos for him, this action achieves nothing and tears a hole in European unity.

This is exactly what Orbán is trying to do: weaken the EU. To signal that a united Europe does not exist. It is fitting that the next stop on his "peace mission" is Beijing. Europe only has a chance in international competition - and I don't just mean economically, but also geopolitically - against the USA and China in particular if it presents a united front. The Hungarian power dwarf continues to play the wrecking ball, supranational responsibility or not. Thanks for nothing.

Good News of the Week

The German federal cabinet has finally put together its national budget for 2025. This was preceded by endless disputes in plain public. It was mainly the Liberals and the Greens who were beating each other over the head with red lines. And the Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not dare to put his foot down - "policy competence" looks different. But now everyone apparently wanted to keep their promise to find a solution, i.e. a compromise, before the end of July.

According to Green Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck, who I believe is the most credible source in this context, the compromise is actually a good one. He calls it a package "for children, the climate and the economy". Benefits for children and families are to be increased. Funding for climate protection projects is not to be cut. The economy and the labor market are to be given a sustainable boost. And there should not even be (or have to be) a special fund outside the regular budget for further military and social support for Ukraine. How is this supposed to work if the debt brake is to remain in place at the same time?

The magic wand of this budget negotiation is apparently called "creative accounting". This makes it possible to use more leeway in the here and now by shifting and staggering the posting of individual items. As a father whose children will have to pay it all off one day, this still allows me to sleep reasonably soundly. The UK's national debt in relation to gross domestic product, for example, is 101%. The USA's is 122%, Italy's 137% and Japan's 252%. The figure for Germany is just 64%. Perhaps Habeck is right when he calls the result, which still has to be approved by the parliament, a "very, very good package".

Personal happy moment of the week

Germany has been knocked out of the European Football Championship in its own country. Because "we" lost to Spain on Friday in the last minute and some say unjustifiably (increasing match domination, penalty not awarded, questionable timekeeping). Nevertheless, we had a great evening. Because we went to a small public viewing event at Strandbad Schliersee, a lakeside beach ground in the Alps. We were not yet familiar with this beautiful place, although we had walked past it many times. Wonderful ambience, great food, enthusiastic atmosphere, sunset included. Nice.

I couldn't care less...

...that France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation after the government camp lost the elections. Because this is merely a symbolic and traditional gesture. After all, President Emmanuel Macron can keep the cabinet in office in an acting capacity. Moreover, it will be days before the majority situation is clear. Either way, the bottom line is that the French people have denied the Rassemblement National a grip on power with a pleasingly high voter turnout. The whole of Europe has been lucky again...

It's fine with me...

...that after the appointment by King Charles III and the introduction of his ministers, the first official act of the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was to stop the deportation of immigrants to Rwanda. In doing so, he is demonstrating exactly what I wanted him to do in his new post: Respect for the rule of law and respect for human rights.

As I write this...

...the world looks at Iran with a doubtful frown. In the presidential election, the moderate politician Massud Peseshkian actually won the run-off. On the one hand, this is pleasing, as he is seen as downright progressive for the Shia state. For example, he wants to revive the nuclear agreement in order to spare his country economic sanctions. Or wants to curb the brutal persecution of women by the moral guardians for hijab violations. Or seeks to take action against corruption. The only problem is that the president has little say in Iran. The head of state and most powerful man is the 85-year-old religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In this theocratic state, religion still determines how much freedom of movement politics has. We shall see.

Post Scriptum

For the second half of 2024, my symbolic thinker of the year Friedrich Nietzsche stares into the void. Since our society lacks any coherent recipe for the challenges of our time: the defense of democracy against extremist forces, the fight against the consequences of climate change, the preservation of prosperity and social security, the freedom of self-determination, and peace. Nietzsche wears a button with the eye of the Freemasons as a symbol of truth. As we all have to face these challenges with open eyes.

[qocsuing]

Russia Steps Up Energy Wars With Gas Cuts to Europe’s Top Buyers

Russia Steps Up Energy Wars With Gas Cuts to Europe’s Top Buyers

Russia stepped up the use of energy as a weapon by further cutting natural gas shipments via its biggest pipeline to Europe, prompting Germany to accuse the Kremlin of trying to drive up prices.Get more news about nitrogen compressor exporter,you can vist our website!

Gazprom PJSC is curbing gas supplies via its Nord Stream pipeline to Germany by 60%, increasing an initial cut to Europe’s top buyer announced on Tuesday. The move adds to a 15% reduction in flows to Italy, the continet’s second-largest customer of Russian gas, putting more pressure on already tight European energy markets and sending gas prices surging more than 25%.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Russia was trying to unsettle markets and prop up prices, but that security of supply was guaranteed for now. The curbs reignited tensions with Moscow, which had calmed down after several European countries found ways of paying for gas in rubles, meeting a demand from President Vladimir Putin.“The industry must prepare for zero Russian gas,” said Thierry Bros, a former energy analyst and a professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies. “EU companies that accepted to twist the contract to continue to receive gas should now understand that political diktats can come anytime from the Kremlin.”

Gazprom PJSC is capping supplies via Nord Stream to 67 million cubic meters a day from Thursday. That’s down from a cut of 40% to a limit of 100 million cubic meters a day announced on Tuesday. Utility giant Uniper SE, Germany’s top buyer of Russian gas, said it had received 25% less gas than it had contracted from Gazprom.

The Dusseldorf-based company said so far it’s been able to replace the missing volumes with natural gas from other sources. A company spokesperson said it’s too early to tell how much the reduction will impact its finances.Gazprom blamed the curbs on technical issues with turbines manufactured by Siemens Energy AG that are crucial for the functioning of the pipeline.

Siemens said on Tuesday that one turbine that had been sent for repairs was stranded in Canada due to Ottawa’s sanctions that prohibit technical services to the Russian oil and gas industry. But Habeck dismissed the suggestion that technical issues were the main reason for the gas cuts.

Oliver Krischer, a deputy economy minister, said the curbs could be linked to Germany’s 10-billion euro ($10.4 billion) bailout of a former Gazprom unit now under the control of the country’s energy regulator since.“A connection between the two problems cannot be ruled out, one could be a reaction to the other,” Krischer told the lower house of parliament’s climate protection and energy committee on Wednesday.

Russia is also limiting supplies to Italy, another country that agreed to pay for gas under the new payment terms imposed by the Kremlin. Eni SpA said on Wednesday that Gazprom informed the Italian energy giant that it would curb supplies by about 15%. The St. Petersburg-based company didn’t provide a reason for the cut.

“Italy can rightly feel aggrieved at receiving reduced flows as one of the ‘friendlier’ allies to pay for Russian gas in rubles and not on Nord Stream’s direct route,” said Tim Partridge, head of energy trading at DB Group Europe.

The loss of Russian supply coincided with a drop in US capacity to ship liquefied natural gas to the region after a major export terminal in Texas was damaged by fire. The operator of the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas said on Tuesday that it may take 90 days for the plant to be partially back online, far longer than an earlier projection of a minimum three weeks. Full capacity isn’t expected to be available until late 2022.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

German ministers seek to strengthen trade and climate action ties in Brazil and Colombia

Germany’s economy and agriculture ministers seek to intensify strategic cooperation with Brazil and Colombia on trade and climate action, they said. Over a six-day visit to the South American countries, Robert Habeck and Cem Özdemir aim to build up partnerships on raw materials, the green transformation of industry, climate and forest protection, and an intensification of cooperation in energy policy with a focus on green hydrogen. “Brazil and Colombia, with their renewable energy potential and significant raw material deposits, play a key role in global climate protection and the transformation of our economies towards green, sustainable models,” Habeck said ahead of the visit. Germany wants to “jointly build green value chains across the Atlantic for more prosperity and climate protection,” he added.

Continue reading.

[focusonthegoodnews]

Germany powering down three nuclear plants in shift to renewables

Germany powering down three nuclear plants in shift to renewables

Good News Notes: “Germany will be shutting down three of its six remaining nuclear power stations on Friday as it moves away from nuclear power in favor of renewable energy. The nuclear reactors in the cities of Grohnde, Brokdorf and Gundremmingen will be shut down and disconnected on the evening of Dec. 31. According to S&P Global, the three plants combined had an output of 4.2 gigawatts. As…

[beardedmrbean]

Germany is exiting the Energy Charter Treaty, Economy Minister Robert Habeck announced on Wednesday.

"The Energy Charter Treaty has proven itself in the past to be an obstacle for change," Habeck said.

Germany's coalition government announced plans to leave the treaty on November 11. Italy, France, Poland, the Netherlands and Spain have also announced their withdrawal.

Why is Germany withdrawing from the treaty?

The treaty, which has more than 50 signatories, was designed to secure energy supplies. It has been criticized for hampering efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels, as it creates grounds for compensation for the closure of plants.

Deputy leader of the parliamentary group of the Greens in the German Bundestag, Julia Verlinden, said that the treaty was "absurd."

"In times of climate crisis, it is absurd that companies can sue for lost profits from fossil investments and compensation for coal and nuclear phase-outs," she said.

Franziska Brantner, parliamentary state secretary at the Economy Ministry, said early in November that the decision was part of Berlin's commitment to "constantly aligning our trade policy with climate protection." Other EU states that have left the treaty say that it is incompatible with their commitments to the 2015 Paris accord.

Withdrawal to take 20 years

The agreement contains a clause which binds members to its provisions for 20 years in the event of a withdrawal, which Germany's economy minister called "bitter news."

Habeck said that the withdrawal means that Berlin will not participate in a process to reform the treaty. The EU has so far failed to get other members to agree to proposed amendments.

The European Parliament recently voted to ask the bloc's executive branch to coordinate a withdrawal of member states from the agreement.

[rivaltimes]

Germany defends its exit from the Energy Charter Treaty as an exercise in climate protection

Germany defends its exit from the Energy Charter Treaty as an exercise in climate protection

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck in Singapore – Britta Pedersen/dpa SINGAPORE, Nov. 12 (DPA/EP) – The German Economy Minister, Robert Habeck, described this Saturday as a historic milestone the agreement of the government coalition to reorient its trade policy in line with concerns about the environment, as well as the announcement that the country will abandon the controversial Energy…

[sounmashnews]

[ad_1] BERLIN — The German authorities mentioned Friday it stays against an EU-wide mechanism to implement a value cap on nautral gasoline imports — simply someday after unveiling a large €200 billion package deal to protect home households and firms from rising gasoline costs. Speaking at a authorities press convention in Berlin, a spokesperson for the economic system ministry mentioned it was essential to differentiate between a gasoline value "brake" like Germany announced on Thursday — beneath which the federal government units a gasoline value and pays the distinction to the precise market import value — and the proposal to introduce an EU-wide gasoline value cap, the place the bloc would collectively comply with solely pay a set value to worldwide gasoline suppliers. Spokesperson Susanne Ungrad voiced concern that such a value cap on international imports — an thought backed by 15 nations in a latest letter to Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson — creates the chance that gasoline suppliers would merely direct shipments to different nations and trigger shortage in Europe. "We do not support an absolute maximum limit — in other words, a rigid price cap — because there is a risk that we will then no longer be able to buy enough gas on the world market at this price," Ungrad mentioned. "And that would then be counterproductive if there wasn't enough gas available, because then our security of supply would no longer be guaranteed." For now, the European Commission has not but proposed any laws that may decrease wholesale gasoline costs, both through a most value or a subsidy scheme. Various nations similar to Italy, Poland and Greece have floated their very own concepts for a value cap, which vary from a inflexible most value to a so-called dynamic cap, which might repair EU gasoline costs to 1 symbolic euro greater than the rival Asian bidding value, the Japan-Korea Marker. Berlin's cautious view was underlined by Germany's Climate and Economy Minister Robert Habeck, in Brussels for an emergency summit of EU vitality ministers. While saying he can be open to the concept of capping the value of Russian gasoline imports, one thing the Commission has recommended however which hasn't garnered widespread help amongst member nations, he was far more circumspect a couple of value cap on imports of liquefied pure gasoline. "Here we must not allow too little gas to reach Europe," Habeck mentioned. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this month voiced opposition to a value cap on gasoline imports. Money worries Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck is in Brussels for an emergency summit of EU vitality minister | John Thys/AFP through Getty Images Berlin's subsidy scheme is prone to trigger controversy on the European stage as a result of nations with a stable fiscal state of affairs can afford to attract recent debt to restrict gasoline costs for households or firms, whereas others won't have such monetary leeway. “We can’t divide ourselves according to our fiscal room for maneuver, we need solidarity,” Italy's outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi said late Thursday. Privately, diplomats fear that measures similar to chopping excise duties or the value cap introduced by Germany can have spillover results on neighboring nations. “Once governments are under pressure they do what they can do, but there are limits and it's clear that not all member states will be able to follow this approach,” mentioned an EU diplomat.  The conflict evokes the response to the coronavirus pandemic, when Germany was capable of dole out enormous sums to help enterprise affected by lockdowns. That led to accusations that Berlin was distorting competitors throughout Europe as a result of not all EU nations may afford such generosity. Ultimately, the EU reacted by establishing its historic €750 billion coronavirus restoration fund, however the German authorities has repeatedly insisted that this was a "one-off" answer that will not be repeated.

“The philosophy is very much different from COVID. It is effectively every country for itself, that tone is being set in Germany,” mentioned Mujtaba Rahman, director with Eurasia Group, a political threat consultancy.  Germany's strategy to throwing huge quantities of cash on the vitality value disaster can be making a home backlash. The German Federal Audit Court late Thursday complained that the federal government was bypassing debt guidelines and counting on a scheme that lacks transparency and parliamentary oversight. While Berlin is just not eager on a value cap, it's extra open to responding to excessive costs by organizing joint purchases of gasoline. "We should use Europe’s market power wisely, act in a coordinated manner and bring prices down," Habeck mentioned. But there may be fear in Berlin that such a measure may violate EU conception guidelines, which suggests the Commission must step in and clearly outline an answer — one thing that would take months, a German official mentioned. Zia Weise and Paola Tamma contributed reporting in Brussels. pl_facebook_pixel_args = []; pl_facebook_pixel_args.userAgent = navigator.userAgent; pl_facebook_pixel_args.language = navigator.language; if ( document.referrer.indexOf( document.domain ) < 0 ) pl_facebook_pixel_args.referrer = document.referrer; !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s) if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function()n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments); if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0'; n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)(window, document,'script', 'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js'); fbq( 'consent', 'revoke' ); fbq( 'init', "394368290733607" ); fbq( 'track', 'PageView', pl_facebook_pixel_args ); if ( typeof window.__tcfapi !== 'undefined' ) window.__tcfapi( 'addEventListener', 2, function( tcData, listenerSuccess ) if ( listenerSuccess ) tcData.eventStatus === 'tcloaded' ) __tcfapi( 'getCustomVendorConsents', 2, function( vendorConsents, success ) if ( ! vendorConsents.hasOwnProperty( 'consentedPurposes' ) ) return; const consents = vendorConsents.consentedPurposes.filter( function( vendorConsents ) return 'Create a personalised ads profile' === vendorConsents.name; ); if ( consents.length === 1 ) fbq( 'consent', 'grant' ); ); ); [ad_2] Source link

[techvercy]

Airbus CEO says in contact with Qatar Airways over A350 dispute By Reuters

Airbus CEO says in contact with Qatar Airways over A350 dispute By Reuters

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury speaks during a visit of German Economy and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck at Airbus research facilities in Hamburg, Germany, January 18, 2022. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer DOHA (Reuters) – Airbus is in contact with Qatar Airways to try to resolve a contractual and safety dispute over the A350 passenger jet, the planemaker’s chief executive…

[murrayyp231231]

Russia pushes the ruble settlement of natural gas, the EU will eventually "cocoon"

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European and American countries have continued to increase trade, economic and financial sanctions against Russia. As a result, the stock market and the ruble exchange rate depreciated sharply for a time, and the macro economy faced greater recession pressure. According to research by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), sanctions will cause the Russian economy to shrink by 15% in 2022.

In the face of these sanctions, Russia brazenly launched a counterattack. On March 23, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that in international energy trade, natural gas supplied to "unfriendly countries or regions" would be settled in rubles.

At the end of February, the United States and the European Union announced that some Russian banks would be kicked out of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). While some Russian banks responsible for clearing energy trade are unaffected, sanctions on economic, financial and other commodity trade have left Russia with no way to use that foreign exchange, even if it could get euros or dollars from energy trade. So Putin believes that it makes no sense to supply the United States and the European Union with Russian goods and accept payments in euros and dollars.

On March 25, Russia warned European and American countries that bills for billions of dollars of natural gas exports to Europe in rubles would arrive in a few days. On March 28, German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economics and Climate Protection Robert Habeck declared after a video conference with the energy ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) countries that he had rejected Russia's request for "only rubles". It believes that Russia's move is a "unilateral violation of existing agreements" and calls on relevant companies to boycott the request.

Russia is currently working on a ruble settlement plan for natural gas exports. If European countries refuse to pay in rubles, Russia will respond in due course. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was clear that Russia would not provide gas for free. Under the current circumstances, it is impossible and suitable for Russia to be charitable to European clients.

Joseph Borrell, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said that Europe is very dependent on Russia's natural gas and oil resources. At present, the EU is not seeking to completely cut off energy exchanges with Russia, but is committed to diversifying sources, in which the Middle East will play a more important role.

In the face of the US and EU's eagerness to expect OPEC to increase energy supply. OPEC+ has signaled that it sees no need to adjust oil supply plans despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict causing the biggest turmoil in the market in decades. The UAE energy minister said that OPEC+ is not concerned about whether the reduction in Russian oil exports is causing imbalances and that the partnership with Russia remains strong. The UAE's energy minister said that no country's oil can replace Russia's oil. The Saudi energy minister believes that Russia is an important member of OPEC+, an alliance we need. From the statements of the two major oil-producing countries, it can be seen that OPEC has no intention of taking advantage of the "strategic opportunity period" of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to occupy the crude oil market that originally belonged to Russia.

India is the world's third-largest oil consumer after the United States and China, with more than 80 percent of its oil imported. In 2021, India bought about 12 million barrels of oil from Russia, accounting for only 2% of its total oil imports. As long as the price is cheap, it is not ruled out that India will further increase its procurement. So the US energy sanctions will only have a short-term impact on Russia's energy trade.

In the long run, it is difficult for Europe to give up Russian energy, and it is unwilling to settle in rubles. Then the final result is likely to promote Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and may even ask Ukraine to make concessions behind the scenes. After the peace talks, the EU can naturally lift its sanctions against Russia and continue use the euro to import Russian energy as usual.

[bopinion]

2023 / 27

Aperçu of the Week:

"We are leaving a trail of devastation through the earth with our daily lives."

(Robert Habeck, German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection and Vice Chancellor of the Green Party)

Bad News of the Week:

Last week, the planet endured its hottest week since weather records began. Which stupidly means not only ice cream in the outdoor pool, but stress for the planet with all its creatures living on it. Which includes humans. Already last year there were more than 60,000 heat-related deaths in Europe. Only in humans, fauna and flora not included. All creatures suffer the same, they just don't have a lobby that presses sad numbers into the news.

And what do we learn from this? Apparently nothing. Because also last week there were various other news that show the unwillingness of mankind or their (mostly) elected representatives to respect creation. First, there is the continuing loss of rainforest. According to the World Resources Institute, 4.1 million hectares of tropical rainforest were destroyed in 2022. That's the size of Switzerland. Or more graphically: every single minute, tree cover equivalent to eleven soccer fields was lost, mainly in the Congo and Brazil.

Then a decision was made in Brussels that could call into question the entire "Green Deal" of the European Union. Because the Environment Committee surprisingly rejected the renaturation law (EU law for the restoration of nature). The background: the conservative EPP group sees the interests of commercial agriculture threatened, as it was when the pesticide ban was prevented. Now the group leader Manfred Weber (from Bavaria, I am a little ashamed) has pushed through a total blockade. Whether the EU Parliament will still pull the emergency brake here in its session tomorrow, the last before the summer break, is unfortunately unlikely.

Finally, a deadline for regulating deep-sea mining passed on Sunday. Norway has already announced its intention to release large areas off its own coast. Now this is open to international waters as well, theoretically as of now. One example: in the Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii, many so-called manganese nodules lie at depths of thousands of meters. These are mineral aggregates that are particularly rich in valuable metals such as copper, nickel and cobalt. The responsible authority - International Seabed Authority / ISA - will hardly immediately throw permits around and is supposed to regulate the mining also under environmental aspects. But that man will now also intervene in the last, previously untouched ecosystems, fills me with chills.

Good News of the Week:

A coalition of several parties is always an alliance of convenience. They come together because that's what the election results want. A basic minimum consensus is then laid down in a coalition agreement. This agreement should then be adhered to. This also applies to the current German governing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. But that doesn't mean that this agreement is complete. After all, it's hard to foresee the day-to-day political issues for a legislative period of four years. Or a Russian war of aggression, which has led to fundamental upheavals in almost every policy area. Chancellor Olaf Scholz calls this a "turn of the times."

This turning point includes various financial burdens that could not have been foreseen. From special funds for the modernization of the military to cushioning increased energy costs to support for Ukraine. And all this at a time when people, economy and state were still trying to recover from the Corona pandemic and its distortions. So the so-called "debt brake" was suspended in order to regain sufficient liquidity. Now, Finance Minister Christian Lindner is insisting on achieving a balanced budget again as quickly as possible, without incurring new debt (yes, dear USA: that's possible). And he is calling for savings across all departments.

Of course, there is now a lot of whining. Because - hardly surprisingly - no minister sees corresponding savings potential in his area of responsibility. But it doesn't help. And of course the "negotiations" are not taking place in a confidential meeting behind closed doors, but in and via the media. Take the example of the Ministry of Family Affairs. One proposal from Lisa Paus, the Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth, was to eliminate parental allowance for high-income families with annual incomes of 150,000 euros or more. New parents who stop working after the birth in favor of the child are reimbursed for their lost earnings for 12 to 14 months, up to a maximum of 1,800 euros per month, as a transfer benefit. It is doubtful whether this family would be impoverished by losing a maximum of 25,200 euros. After all, there is still child benefit, etc.

As an alternative (after all, this proposal went unpopular "against families") then, among other things, the deletion of the spousal splitting was discussed. This joint tax assessment of married couples (even without children) deprives the state of 20 billion euros a year. And it is primarily top earners whose partner now works little or not at all who benefit. This is an outdated role model from the time when the man went to work, the woman stayed at home and single parents did not exist. Exactly: it was introduced in 1958. I find that refreshing. A public discussion about the distribution of wealth. In which even seemingly self-evident things are put to the test to see whether they are still in keeping with the times. And fair. Supporting families and children? Yes, no question. Rewarding marriage without a family? Why, actually. Our society has changed fundamentally in the last 65 years. It's time to rethink.

Personal happy moment of the week:

I actually have a certain selection in the last week. On Monday, I had a pleasant reunion with colleagues from another location in the beer garden. On Tuesday, I went to the cinema with my son - overdue since Christmas - and we even managed to agree on a movie, "Spider-Man across the Spider-verse". On Thursday I was with my daughter at a double event of her university student body. And yesterday with my wife and friends at a concert: Italy's superstar Zucchero open air directly at Lake Constance. As part of a weekend trip (which is why this blog is late) on the hottest weekend of the summer so far. Hard to decide...

I couldn't care less...

...about so much nonsense I had to perceive in the last days. Example "hot dog eating contest": the perennial winner of the last years Joey Chestnut ate 62 hot dogs in 10 minutes in New York City. Reading this news and commenting briefly here cost me ten minutes of valuable life time. Too bad.

As I write this...

...we have been chasing a fly for hours. The annoying critter buzzes around everywhere and hides as quiet as a mouse as soon as you approach with the fly swatter. It's probably a gang of flies following a precise plan. This could become an exciting night.

Post Scriptum

I don't like some songs that are always in the rotation of radio stations. Probably that's why I listen to the radio at most randomly and only while driving. It's especially bad in the run-up to Christmas, when the same seasonal all time favorites are played every year. Which are not favorites with me at any time. Especially "Last Christmas" by Wham! is a reason for me to change the frequency. Until now. Because in the Netflix documentary about the British pop duo of the 80s, which my wife insisted on watching, I learned an interesting detail.

George Michael was sure he would have scored a #1 hit with it by the end of 1984. And then suspected, when he took part in Bob Geldof's "Band Aid" project and their single "Do they know it's Christmas time?" in the same pre-Christmas period, that it probably wouldn't. And what did he do? No, he didn't sulk, but donated all his earnings from the first year to the project, which was dedicated to fighting hunger in Eritrea. Fine, I think that's good. But now that this "earworm for the ages" is already annoying me in its 39th year, I will continue to switch off. Because I care much less about Michael's heirs than about the starving children of Eritrea.

[bopinion]

2021 / 50

Aperçu of the Week:

"Home encompasses all people, no matter where they come from, what they believe, who they love. The term is meant to signal that we want to keep society together."

(Nancy Faeser, newly appointed Federal Minister of the Interior and Homeland)

Bad News of the Week:

According to a report in The New York Times, the U.S. has knowingly accepted devastating consequences for civilians in its drone war in the Middle East, which began back under Barack Obama. Confidential government files obtained by the newspaper document numerous errors in the control of air strikes that have caused thousands of civilian deaths. So much for "precision strikes against jihadists."

In the process, there was a transparency promise by the Obama administration and the real goal was to avoid collateral damage and protect both its own soldiers and civilians on all sides. In five years, there were over 50,000 remotely piloted airstrikes in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. And not a single official report concluded that there was any wrongdoing.

Yet the NYT, after evaluating 1,311 Pentagon case reports, comes to a shocking conclusion: "The American air war has been marked by misinformation, hasty and inaccurate rocket fire and the deaths of thousands of civilians, including many children." A spokesman for the Central Command says that it regrets "every loss of innocent life," but that "even with the best technology in the world, mistakes happen." We learn once again: a guaranteed casualty of any war is always the truth.

Good News of the Week:

"The face of the country will change" headlines the leading German political weekly magazine "Der Spiegel" today. The freshly minted Super Minister for Economy and Climate Protection Robert Habeck of the Green Party wants nothing less than to transform Germans industry and infrastructure. This, he says, will create new industries and jobs - but will also demand something of the people.

A mammoth project. And there is no alternative. The fact that the governing traffic light coalition has taken up this cause is, of course, only a statement. But a credible one. The combination of economy and ecology in a newly tailored ministry alone sends out a signal. And so does the fact that a Green has become its minister. Especially since Habeck has already proven in his vita as a state minister in Schleswig-Holstein that he also knows how to implement projects in real terms. I wish him - and all of us! - much success with it.

Personal happy moment of the week:

My son has the second foreign language in high school: French. Which he can't stand. And therefore shows a - to put it mildly - "manageable motivation". The result was three F's in a row. Yes, F means failure. Since then we force him to do additional homework. A first success can be seen now: the last test was a C after all. Which does not mean that it is over now. We will have to keep the focus on French for the rest of the school year. But apparently he is now on the right track.

I couldn't care less...

...that the "right to freedom of expression" is being discussed right now. When comedian Lisa Fitz presents demonstrably false Corona death figures in her program, or liberal Bundestag Vice President Wolfgang Kubicki categorizes a possible mandatory vaccination as "revenge and retaliation" against the unvaccinated, these are not only fake news, but also simply bullshit. I am in favor of introducing a "right to intellectual hygiene" in public discourse.

As I write this...

...I am pondering whether this strange feeling in my stomach might actually be rising anxiety. Reduce social contacts, wear FFP2 mask, avoid risks and of course get vaccinated - until now you could feel reasonably safe if you did the bare minimum. And then came Omicron. With its horror reports of unprecedented infection probability, immense dark figure and frequent vaccination breakthroughs. I've been coping with restrictions and uncertainty for the nearly two years of the pandemic. But now I am seriously becoming fearful for the well-being of those most at risk in my personal environment.

Post Scriptum:

The members of the Conservative CDU have elected a new chairman. And it is an old one. Friedrich Merz was already established at the head of the party at the turn of the millennium, including as parliamentary group chairman. Who lost this post at the time to Angel Merkel. Who, in the opinion of many critics, "social-democratized" the party. Merz is therefore seen by many as a representative of a "back to the roots" of old values. This will undoubtedly sharpen the CDU's profile. Whether it will make it more electable, I doubt. After all, many points of Merz's program are clearly outdated. So, with a slightly ironic undertone, I wish him "Good luck with that!"