#EXIT POLL RESULTS 2019

[op-81-lvr]

BABY SAID ~ OP81

Part2

Oscar Piastri x Male!Driver!Single-Parent!Reader

SMAU

Please note: based on my poll i'm going to publish both oscar fics because they seem to be swapping placed by the hour so bear with me. Also to anone who wanted the Max fic, dw about it i'm publishing that one to just at a much later date.

A/N: Part 2 of this will be made, lemme know if you have any suggestions for scenarios. My inbox is open.

Faceclaim: Various men on pinetest, couldn't decide on a face claim I wanted for this fic

Summary: In your 2 years as Oscars teamate you two became fast friends. When you suddenly become the sole care taker to your daughter Oscar is there for you through everything.

Warnings/Tags: Set in the end 2024 season/start of 2025 season, totally based on what is currently known about draver contacts and such. Reader drove in mclaren 2019-2024 and takes lewis' merc seat for 2025. Daughter is a result of a one night stand/ex-girlfriend, he is raising her on his own. Pre-established relationship (Kind of)

October 2024

Formula 1

❤️ 💬 📟 🔖

Liked by Your_Username, McLaren, Oscar Piastri and 589k others

f1 Following a sudden personal issue, McLaren driver (Y/N) (L/N) has withdrawn from racing for the rest of the season. Lando Norris is due to take his place in (L/N)’s seat early.

(Y/N) will be back with us to drive for Mercedes in the 2025 season.

User1 This is so sad, he is 7 points off of overtaking Max in the championship standings ☹️

User2 I hope he’s okay, it must be pretty serious for him to pull out when he is this close to a championship win.

Your_Username I’ll see you lovely lot next year. Best of luck Lando 🫶🏻

User3 This is such a PR response 💔

McLaren

❤️ 💬 📟 🔖

Liked by Your_Username, OscarPiastri and 402k others

McLaren Goodbye (Y/N), we’re going to miss you around the garage for the last few races of the season but we know next you you’ll be off doing other things with a new team.

See ya around, Champ

Sincerely, admin and the McLaren team

User4 Admin calling him ‘Champ’ ☹️

OscarPiastri I can’t believe I have to break in a new teammate now. I’m gonna miss my bro 😔

Your_Username Gonna miss you to, How am I gonna cope without our race weekend gossip session

User5 Never beating the romance allegations I fear

Your_Username Who said I wanted to beat them 😏

User6 I beg your finest pardon 😳

January 2025

Your_Username

❤️ 💬 📟 🔖

Liked by OscarPiastri, mercedesamgf1 and 281k others

Your_Username Welp, secrets out (Thanks Mail Online) Whats one more secret between friends?

This is Marceline, my daughter (And yes, she is named after the adventure time character), She was born last October and that is why I exited the season early.

Would like to thank Oscar for being my shoulder to cry on, my person to lean on when I was left with a newborn baby in mid-October and the person to spend my now sleepless nights with

And yes, I will still be driving for Mercedes next year, my daughter was not a deal breaker for them.

Love you all, see you in February 🫶🏻

User9 BABY (L/N)??? OSCAR AND (Y/N) WERE DATING THIS WHOLE TIME??? (Y/N) WENT MISSING TO TAKE CARE OF HIS BABY!

OscarPiastri I love you, baby. Although i’m gonna miss being teammates I am honoured that you want me in Marcy’s life.

Your_Username Love you too Honey, and I wouldn’t question having you in Marcy’s life even if we weren’t dating.

User10 WDYM (Y/N) CALLS OSCAR HONEY, THATS SO CUTE 🙁

mercedesamgf1 Already babyproofing the unit for baby boss’ first day 🫡

Your_Username Much appreciated admin

User11 Arguably think this is better than him winning the championship

schecoperez Good to see another father on the grid, we’re here if you need us!

Your_Username Thanks Checo

User11 Love how Merc and RedBull are made to look like they hate each other but then we get moments like this

[indecisiveavocado]

It's not our fault Harris lost

People have said that it's Jews' fault Harris lost (not linking to them because fuck no I am not supporting them)

That's bullshit.

There are a few things worth noting here.

Even the worst polls for Harris have her winning Jews by a comfortable margin.

Jews are more Democratic than many consistently Democratic groups

Jews are 2 percent of the US population

Jews had a reasonable reason, as Jews, to vote for Trump. Not as human beings in general, but as Jews.

Let's dig into each of those.

Harris won Jews comfortably

This data is based on the JTA, which is the Associated Press of Jewish News. Many smaller Jewish news outlets syndicate international reporting from them and only report on more local news. Specifically, here: https://www.jta.org/2024/11/06/united-states/79-of-jews-voted-for-kamala-harris-according-to-largest-preliminary-exit-poll. Caveat: This is based on an exit poll. Exit polls are notoriously unreliable. However, they are still useful indicators of which way the wind is blowing, and if they indicate overwhelming support, there was probably overwhelming support.

With that said, here are the analyses. First of all, one data source, which excluded New York and California Jews, found Jews voting 79 percent Democratic. That is a huge margin. Another analysis, conducted by Fox News, found Jews were "only" 66 percent Democratic. If it's the former, that would be among the largest Democratic margins among Jews.

Unless noted, proceeding, I will use the Fox poll. Keep that in mind.

Jews are more Democratic than Democratic safe spots

Jews were more Democratic than Los Angeles county. (https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/county/los-angeles)

Let that sink in for a moment.

Jews were more Democratic than Los Angeles County, California.

Okay. You got that?

Even if that were the case, Jews are not meaningful proportions of the population

As any Jew is acutely aware of, Jews are a minority. In fact, we are 2 percent of the US population.

But, you might object that that doesn't matter - what matters is the swing state population.

That's a fair objection. Let's look at Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to one survey from 2019 (https://www.jewishdatabank.org/content/upload/bjdb/2019_US_Jewish_Population_(AJYB,_Sheskin,_Dashefsky)_DataBank_Final.pdf), Jews made up 1.5 percent of the Arizona population, 1.2 percent of the Georgia population, 0.9 percent of the Michigan population, 2.5 percent of the Nevada population, 0.4 percent of the North Carolina population, 2.3 percent of the Pennsylvania population, and 0.6 percent of the Wisconsin population.

Let's look at vote margins now. Mind you, most Jews voted Democratic, so this is counting many twice. Is the Jewish proportion of the population enough to swing the vote if all of them voted Democratic (done by adding the Jewish share of the population to the overall vote for Harris, so a 49-48 result for Trump with a 2 percent Jewish population would be counted as a 50-49 win for Harris)? (Election result data from Politico)

Arizona: no. Georgia: no. Michigan: no. Nevada: no. North Carolina: no. Pennsylvania: yes. Wisconsin: no.

This means that instead of the election being 312-226 Trump, it would be...293 Trump to 245 Harris.

Okay. Wait, those numbers look off. What if the Jewish share of the population in each of those states doubled? Would that change anything?

Arizona: No. Georgia: yes. Michigan: yes. Nevada: yes. North Carolina: No. Pennsylvania: yes. Wisconsin: yes.

So that's a 292-246 win for Harris...if we double the proportion of Jews and double-count most of them. (I do find the numbers of Jews a bit fishy, but they probably roughly average out with our double-counting).

I can see why Jews, as Jews, would vote Republican

No, really! Of course, I wouldn't, because I am not solely defined by my Jewishness. But frankly, it's a small miracle more Jews didn't defect. Why?

There is antisemitism on both sides, and I could see the argument Democratic antisemitism is worse.

For one thing, it leaves much more room for plausible deniability. You can't really spin Nick Fuentes-style antisemitism, you can spin antizionism. It's easier for Jews to say something is antisemitic when it's Nick Fuentes-y.

Two, while Republican antisemitism primarily focuses on hurting Jews now, Democratic antisemitism focuses on destroying Jews' haven -- Israel. If Republicans succeed, we can run. If Democrats succeed, when the Republicans succeed, we'll have nowhere to run.

Three, recently there's been a wave of left-wing antisemitism that Democrats have been slower to condemn than Jews would like.

(Of course, all of these are generalizations. There are exceptions on both sides.)

I can see reasons why Jews would want to vote for Trump, as Jews. And, indeed, the Orthodox have historically voted Republican, and this year was no exception.

This doesn't mean I'm endorsing Trump, of course; he's a horrible leader, human, and everything. But on issues Jews care about, he does surprisingly well (from a typical Jewish standpoint). He's actually very popular in Israel, and while of course part of that is because they don't need to deal with the domestic policy consequences, part of it is because there are reasonable arguments that Trumpian antisemitism is better for Jews than left-wing antisemitism. And despite those reasons to abandon the Democrats, Jews didn't. Jews showed up, and instead of blaming us for not showing up enough, non-Jews should be appreciative of the fact that we showed up, not point fingers, and, if you insist, point fingers at pretty much every other group, because Jews are among the most liberal groups in the country. (If you take the higher estimate, Jews aren't that far behind queer voters and Black women.)

[faracus]

Many conflicting feeling this morning now uk election results are in

1. Hooray, the Tories are out at long last!!!

2. Erm ok, so what are Labour actually going to do now? The main reason people gave for voting Labour was to get the Tories out and thats not a policy, Labour will lose seats at the next election if they don't make significant changes to how the country is doing. This isn't going to happen with the policies in Labours manifesto.

3. Woo, Reform got far fewer seats than exit polls suggested and the Green got more than exit polls suggested.

4. Fuck, Reform got a huge percentage of votes, thats going to drag all the major parties even further to the right.

5. On the other hand it means those all across the political spectrum not just those on the left might start calling for proportional representation rather than first past the post, this will help all parties except Labour and the Tories, so yay for actually left wing parties having a better chance.

6. Yay Corbyn kept his seat as an independent against Labour despite the media coverage saying this was unlikely to happen.

7. Fuck the seat I live in is still a Tory seat despite it being much closer than any time in the last 100 years, on the other hand it was only so close because of Reform.

8. Damn, i was hoping (but not expecting) Lib Dems would be in opposition to Labour rather than the Tories. That might have helped drag the country back to the left but realistically that was never going to happen.

9. Looking at the vote share Labour really didn't win this election, they only got 1.6% more of the vote than in 2019. The result is only because of the Tories imploding.

[eaglesnick]

The Emperors New Clothes

Time and time again, as I watched the election results unfold on my TV screen last night, political commentators and Labour MP’s alike praised Sir Keir Starmer for having thrown Jeremy Corbyn out of the Party and for having purged its ranks of left-wing candidates. The massive Labour victory that the exit polls predicted and was played out over the ensuing hours was all down to Sir Keir’s eradication of left-wing policies and candidates.

In the 2019 election Corbyn’s Labour Party secured only 32.2% of the vote, the worst in Labour’s history. That year saw a turn out of 67% with Labour winning 202 seats. Yesterday saw Labour with 33.9% of the vote yet winning 410 seats, in a turnout predicted to be around 60%.

Despite being labelled a “landslide victory", which measured in MP numbers it is, Starmer has failed to significantly raise the Labour Party’s overall share of the vote from its all time low of the 2019 election. In short, the voters have deserted the Conservative Party but have not given their vote to Starmer. Rather they have voted for lesser parties such as the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and worryingly, Reform UK.

Starmer, more concerned about power than policies, has failed to ignite the support of the electorate. His 1.7% increase in the popular vote is derisible, especially given his scathing criticism of Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing policies in the 2019 election. The sad fact is, the voters were totally unimpressed by Sir Keir Starmer’s “new" Labour Party. The 2024 election turnout is on track to being the lowest since the Second World War.

The electorate may have rejected the Conservatives, but they have not flocked to the Labour Party. Keir Starmer’s “massive victory" is hollow. Like the Emperor in the Hans  Christian Andersen fairy tale, Keir Starmer’s obsession with image has been at the expense of policies that matter to ordinary working people and it is only a matter of time before his nakedness is found out.

[mariacallous]

BRUSSELS (AP) — Far-right parties made major gains in European Union parliamentary elections Sunday, dealing stunning defeats to two of the bloc’s most important leaders: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In France, the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen dominated the polls to such an extent that Macron immediately dissolved the national parliament and called for new elections. It was a massive political risk since his party could suffer more losses, hobbling the rest of his presidential term that ends in 2027.

Le Pen was delighted to accept the challenge. “We’re ready to turn the country around, ready to defend the interests of the French, ready to put an end to mass immigration,” she said, echoing the rallying cry of so many far-right leaders in other countries who were celebrating substantial wins.

Macron acknowledged the thud of defeat. “I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered,” he said, adding that calling a snap election only underscored his democratic credentials.

In Germany, the most populous nation in the 27-member bloc, projections indicated that the AfD overcame a string of scandals involving its top candidate to rise to 16.5%, up from 11% in 2019. In comparison, the combined result for the three parties in the German governing coalition barely topped 30%.

Scholz suffered such an ignominious fate that his long-established Social Democratic party fell behind the extreme-right Alternative for Germany, which surged into second place. “After all the prophecies of doom, after the barrage of the last few weeks, we are the second strongest force,” a jubilant AfD leader Alice Weidel said.

The four-day polls in the 27 EU countries were the world’s second-biggest exercise in democracy, behind India’s recent election. At the end, the rise of the far right was even more stunning than many analysts predicted.

The French National Rally crystalized it as it stood at over 30% or about twice as much as Macron’s pro-European centrist Renew party that is projected to reach around 15%.

Overall across the EU, two mainstream and pro-European groups, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, remained the dominant forces. The gains of the far right came at the expense of the Greens, who were expected to lose about 20 seats and fall back to sixth position in the legislature. Macron’s pro-business Renew group also lost big.

For decades, the European Union, which has its roots in the defeat of Nazi Germany and fascist Italy, confined the hard right to the political fringes. With its strong showing in these elections, the far right could now become a major player in policies ranging from migration to security and climate.

Bucking the trend was former EU leader and current Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who overcame Law and Justice, the national conservative party that governed Poland from 2015-23 and drove it ever further to the right. A poll showed Tusk’s party won with 38%, compared to 34% for his bitter nemesis.

“Of these large, ambitious countries, of the EU leaders, Poland has shown that democracy, honesty and Europe triumph here,” Tusk told his supporters. “I am so moved.”

He declared, “We showed that we are a light of hope for Europe.”

Germany, traditionally a stronghold for environmentalists, exemplified the humbling of the Greens, who were predicted to fall from 20% to 12%. With further losses expected in France and elsewhere, the defeat of the Greens could well have an impact on the EU’s overall climate change policies, still the most progressive across the globe.

The center-right Christian Democratic bloc of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which already weakened its green credentials ahead of the polls, dominated in Germany with almost 30%, easily beating Scholz’s Social Democrats, who fell to 14%, even behind the AfD.

“What you have already set as a trend is all the better – strongest force, stable, in difficult times and by a distance,” von der Leyen told her German supporters by video link from Brussels.

As well as France, the hard right, which focused its campaign on migration and crime, was expected to make significant gains in Italy, where Premier Giorgia Meloni was tipped to consolidate her power.

Voting continued in Italy until late in the evening and many of the 27 member states have not yet released any projections. Nonetheless, data already published confirmed earlier predictions: the elections will shift the bloc to the right and redirect its future. That could make it harder for the EU to pass legislation, and decision-making could at times be paralyzed in the world’s biggest trading bloc.

EU lawmakers, who serve a five-year term in the 720-seat Parliament, have a say in issues from financial rules to climate and agriculture policy. They approve the EU budget, which bankrolls priorities including infrastructure projects, farm subsidies and aid delivered to Ukraine. And they hold a veto over appointments to the powerful EU commission.

These elections come at a testing time for voter confidence in a bloc of some 450 million people. Over the last five years, the EU has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, an economic slump and an energy crisis fueled by the biggest land conflict in Europe since the Second World War. But political campaigning often focuses on issues of concern in individual countries rather than on broader European interests.

Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations — Hungary, Slovakia and Italy — and are part of ruling coalitions in others including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands. Polls give the populists an advantage in France, Belgium, Austria and Italy.

“Right is good,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who leads a stridently nationalist and anti-migrant government, told reporters after casting his ballot. “To go right is always good. Go right!”

[warningsine]

BRUSSELS (AP) — Far-right parties made such big gains at the European Union parliamentary elections that they dealt stunning defeats to two of the bloc’s most important leaders: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In France, the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen dominated the polls to such an extent that Macron immediately dissolved the national parliament and called for new elections, a massive political risk since his party could suffer more losses, hobbling the rest of his presidential term that ends in 2027.

In Germany, Scholz suffered such an ignominious fate that his long-established Social Democratic party fell behind the extreme-right Alternative for Germany, which surged into second place.

Adding insult to injury, the National Rally’s lead candidate, Jordan Bardella, all of 28 years old, immediately took on a presidential tone with his victory speech in Paris, opening with “My dear compatriots” and adding “the French people have given their verdict, and it’s final.”

Macron acknowledged the thud of defeat. “I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered,” he said, adding that calling a snap election only underscored his democratic credentials.

The four-day polls in the 27 EU countries were the world’s second-biggest exercise in democracy, behind India’s recent election. At the end, the rise of the far right was even more stunning than many analysts predicted. The French National Rally stood at just over 30% or about twice as much as Macron’s pro-European centrist Renew party that is projected to reach around 15%.

In Germany, the most populous nation in the 27-member bloc, projections indicated that the AfD overcame a string of scandals involving its top candidate to rise to 16.5%, up from 11% in 2019. In comparison, the combined result for the three parties in the German governing coalition barely topped 30%.

Overall across the EU, two mainstream and pro-European groups, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, remained the dominant forces. The gains of the far right came at the expense of the Greens, who were expected to lose about 20 seats and fall back to sixth position in the legislature.

For decades, the European Union, which has its roots in the defeat of Nazi Germany and fascist Italy, confined the hard right to the political fringes. With its strong showing in these elections, the far right could now become a major player in policies ranging from migration to security and climate.

The Greens were predicted to fall from 20% to 12% in Germany, a traditional bulwark for environmentalists, with more losses expected in France and several other EU nations. Their defeat could well have an impact on the EU’s overall climate change policies, still the most progressive across the globe.

The center-right Christian Democratic bloc of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which already weakened its green credentials ahead of the polls, dominated in Germany with almost 30%, easily beating Scholz’s Social Democrats, who fell to 14%, even behind the AfD.

“What you have already set as a trend is all the better – strongest force, stable, in difficult times and by a distance,” von der Leyen told her German supporters by video link from Brussels.

As well as France, the hard right, which focused its campaign on migration and crime, was expected to make significant gains in Italy, where Premier Giorgia Meloni was tipped to consolidate her power.

Voting will continue in Italy until late in the evening and many of the 27 member states have not yet released any projections. Nonetheless, data already released confirmed earlier predictions: the EU’s massive exercise in democracy is expected to shift the bloc to the right and redirect its future.

With the center losing seats to hard right parties, the EU could find it harder to pass legislation and decision-making could at times be paralyzed in the world’s biggest trading bloc.

EU lawmakers, who serve a five-year term in the 720-seat Parliament, have a say in issues from financial rules to climate and agriculture policy. They approve the EU budget, which bankrolls priorities including infrastructure projects, farm subsidies and aid delivered to Ukraine. And they hold a veto over appointments to the powerful EU commission.

These elections come at a testing time for voter confidence in a bloc of some 450 million people. Over the last five years, the EU has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, an economic slump and an energy crisis fueled by the biggest land conflict in Europe since the Second World War. But political campaigning often focuses on issues of concern in individual countries rather than on broader European interests.

The voting marathon began in the Netherlands on Thursday, where an unofficial exit poll suggested that the anti-migrant hard right party of Geert Wilders would make important gains, even though a coalition of pro-European parties has probably pushed it into second place.

Casting his vote in the Flanders region, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose country holds the EU’s rotating presidency until the end of the month, warned that Europe was “more under pressure than ever.”

Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations — Hungary, Slovakia and Italy — and are part of ruling coalitions in others including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands. Polls give the populists an advantage in France, Belgium, Austria and Italy.

“Right is good,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who leads a stridently nationalist and anti-migrant government, told reporters after casting his ballot. “To go right is always good. Go right!”

After the election comes a period of horse-trading, as political parties reconsider in their places in the continent-wide alliances that run the European legislature.

The biggest political group — the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) — has moved further right during the present elections on issues like security, climate and migration.

Among the most watched questions is whether the Brothers of Italy — the governing party of populist Meloni, which has neo-fascist roots — stays in the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists group or becomes part of a new hard right group that could form the wake of the elections. Meloni also has the option to work with the EPP.

A more worrying scenario for pro-European parties would be if the ECR joins forces with Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy group to consolidate hard-right influence.

The second biggest group — the center-left Socialists and Democrats — and the Greens refuse to align themselves with the ECR.

Questions also remain over what group Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party might join. It was previously part of the EPP but was forced out in 2021 due to conflicts over its interests and values. The far-right Alternative for Germany was kicked out of the Identity and Democracy group following a string of scandals surrounding its two lead candidates for the European Parliament.

The election also ushers in a period of uncertainty as new leaders are chosen for the European institutions. While lawmakers are jostling over places in alliances, governments will be competing to secure top EU jobs for their national officials.

Chief among them is the presidency of the powerful executive branch, the European Commission, which proposes laws and watches to ensure they are respected. The commission also controls the EU’s purse strings, manages trade and is Europe’s competition watchdog.

Other plum posts are those of European Council president, who chairs summits of presidents and prime ministers, and EU foreign policy chief, the bloc’s top diplomat.

[head-post]

EP elections 2024: triumph of right-wing opposition, collapse of Greens, demand for change of course

Right-wing parties have made significant gains in the European Parliament elections. According to the first results provided by the EU, far-right parties will dominate the transnational parliament, while the Greens were the hardest hit.

French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a crushing defeat in exit polls, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party won a convincing victory that underlines her credibility as a candidate for the French presidency in 2027.

According to the first exit polls, the National Rally party won about 32 per cent of the vote, 10 points more than in the last EU elections in 2019, and about 17 points ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s party.

In Germany, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came second behind the opposition Conservatives with 16.5 per cent of the vote, up from 11 per cent in 2019, according to exit polls released by public broadcaster ARD. The Greens lost the most in Germany on Sunday, dropping 8.6 percentage points to 11.9 per cent. Voters penalised them for the cost of policies to cut CO2 emissions – in line with expectations for environmental parties across Europe.

In the Netherlands, where voting took place on Thursday, polls showed that nationalist Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party would win seven of the 29 seats in the EU assembly, just one less than the alliance of the Social Democrats and Greens.

Meanwhile in Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party is the likely winner of the vote, according to a poll conducted over the past week and released after polls closed on Sunday night.

After the polls closed in Greece, the first exit polls show the ruling New Democracy party in first place with between 28 and 32 per cent. The Greek Solution party is gaining between 7.6 and 10 per cent, while the ultra-conservative Niki is on top with between 2.9 and 4.9 per cent.

Spanish exit polls show Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) vying for the top spot with the conservative Popular Party (PP).

According to a poll by Danish national TV channel DR, SF, the Socialist People’s Party, which in English is called the Green Left, will get the most votes – 18.4 per cent – and three of the 15 Danish seats in the European Parliament.

Pro-European coalition is still in place

On the other hand, the new balance in the EU parliament shows that a stable pro-European coalition is a realistic scenario, despite the rise of the far-right across Europe.

The centre-right EPP, the EU Socialists and the liberal Renewal could form a majority of 403 seats.

The election result raises the possibility that the EPP candidate Ursula von der Leyen will be re-elected as head of the EU Commission. Christopher Glück, managing director at the political analysis firm Forefront Advisers, told Euractiv:

“The majority of the centrist three looks pretty solid […] probably ahead of 410 seats.”

This year’s European Parliament elections are the first since Britain left the EU. In total, more than 360 million Europeans could vote in the election of 720 MEPs. This year’s vote was closely watched around the world. It is predicted that a strong electoral performance by the far-right could reshape alliances in parliament and dramatically change the future of the entire European Union.

Read more HERE

[tomorrowusa]

Two headlines which help explain the victory of Poland's pro-democracy opposition in Sunday's election...

Opozycja zmobilizowała niegłosujących. Na PiS głosował żelazny elektorat (The opposition mobilized non-voters. An iron electorate voted for PiS)

Stats are preliminary, but voter turnout was around 73% in Sunday's parliamentary election – a post-Communist high. The opposition got out the vote – big time. As many as 31% of the eligible voters who did not vote in the 2019 election voted in this one. Meanwhile, the ruling party whose acronym is PiS tightly held on to its own voters; it wasn't enough for them. 87% of PiS voters had voted in 2019.

Wśród młodych najwięcej stracił PiS (PiS lost most among young people)

Of the five party groupings which won seats in the Sejm, PiS came in fifth among voters under 30. Donald Tusk's Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) came in first and Lewnica came in second. The rigid socially conservative agenda of PiS was regarded as repulsive by many young people in Poland.

But wait, there's more!

One aspect of the youth vote which the second TVN24 article did not emphasize is that women were particularly important in the turnout. This is from a DW article about the defeat of PiS.

High turnout thanks to young and female voters

Observers say young and female voters, motivated by the issue of abortion rights — which the ruling PiS has sought to curtail and Donald Tusk has promised to liberalize — turned out in large numbers to support opposition parties. "Until recently, half of women said they would not vote," sociologist Justyna Kajta of SWPS University in Warsaw told AFP news agency. "Now these exit polls actually show more women than men voted."

From "half of women said they would not vote" to "more women than men voted" shows how decisive increased involvement by women, especially younger women, can be.

During the 2020 demonstrations against the extremist anti-abortion law authored by PiS I saw a sign which this election reminded me of. It displayed a fundamental truth as well as a great bilingual political pun based on a classic song by Bob Marley.

The word kraj is pronounced like the English word cry. In Polish, kraj means country though in certain contexts it tends to refer to Poland in particular. For language nerds, you may recognize it as coming from the same Slavic root as Ukraine (Ukraina as written in Polish).

For a well-functioning country, you need active participation by women in the political process. That happened this week in Poland. ❤️🇵🇱

So massive GOTV and appealing to forward-looking young people had a considerable impact in Poland. Those are lessons which should not be overlooked by center-left parties and coalitions in other countries.

BTW, a second exit poll was released for Sunday's election. It showed the current opposition with 249 seats in the Sejm; that's one more than the earlier poll. But the official results should be available by the middle of the week.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Deborah Cole and Ashifa Kassam at The Guardian:

Austria’s main parties are preparing to begin tense wrangling to form a government amid warnings about the country’s democracy after the far right’s watershed victory in a general election in which angry voters punished centrist incumbents over migration and inflation. On Sunday, the anti-Islam, Kremlin-friendly Freedom party (FPÖ) scored its strongest result since its founding after the second world war by former Nazi functionaries and SS officers with just over 29% of the vote. The outcome surpassed expectations and beat the ruling centre-right People’s party (ÖVP) by nearly three percentage points. The centre-left opposition Social Democratic party (SPÖ) turned in its worst-ever performance with 21% while the Greens, junior partners in government, sank to 8%. Exit polls showed that the 13-point gain for the FPÖ since the last parliamentary election in 2019 came thanks to strong support among younger voters. Amid deep frustration with the cost of living and angst about immigration, the hard right clearly won among Austrians under 34 with 27% of that demographic, and even more decisively with the 35-to-59 set on 37%. The FPÖ profited as well from festering resentment over Austria’s strict measures during the Covid pandemic.

The FPÖ, which cites Hungary’s Viktor Orbán as a model, placed only third with over-60s on 22%. Instead, they gave their support to the ÖVP of the chancellor, Karl Nehammer, with 38%, and the SPÖ on 24%. Austria has often faced criticism about its tepid culture of historical remembrance of the Nazi period, long casting itself as the Nazis’ “first victim” despite its enthusiastic welcome of the Anschluss in 1938 by native son Adolf Hitler. In the wake of Sunday’s results, the International Auschwitz Committee, representing survivors of the Nazi extermination camp from 19 countries, denounced an “alarming new chapter” in Austria. Its vice-president, Christoph Heubner, said they were placing their faith in the “common ground among Austria’s democrats” to “stand up to historical amnesia and the ideology of old and new rightwing extremists … in the interest of the country and Europe”.

[...] Despite its resounding win, the FPÖ, which calls for a “Fortress Austria” against migration and “remigration” or forced deportations of unwanted foreigners, will face an uphill battle to form a government as it failed to secure an absolute majority. All of the smaller parties have ruled out any cooperation with the hard right. The ÖVP, which has worked with the rightwing populists several times at national and regional level, would be a potential partner but has called a government led by polarising FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl a dealbreaker.

In Austria’s election this weekend, the far-right FPO won the most seats but not an absolute majority.

[dertaglichedan]

UK General Election live: Exit poll predicts landslide for Starmer – but not quite a 1997 result

The Conservatives are predicted to suffer the most crushing defeat in the party’s history, with an exit poll projecting a massive Labour landslide.Keir Starmer’s party would win 410 seats – slightly less than Tony Blair’s total in the 1997 election – while the Tories would face humiliation with just 131.

Meanwhile, Reform UK would overtake the SNP to become the fourth-biggest party in the House of Commons with 13 seats.But we won’t know the final results for each party until tomorrow morning when all votes are counted. The 2024 turnout is expected to rival that of the 2019 General Election.

***Conservative in the UK is like 2015 liberals here. So, not sure how bad it will get now. Hope not.. Hope I'm wrong.

[is-today-the-uk-general-election]

POLLS ARE NOW CLOSED.

With the exception of those already in polling stations or waiting in line, you will no longer be able to cast your vote.

Exit poll results will be published shortly.

Vote counting will now begin, with the first results anticipated by 00:00 on Friday the 5th of July. Please refer to this list of historical declaration times by (2019) constituency for an approximate guide to expected declaration times in your area.

YES.

Today is the day of the UK general election.

You have 15hs until polls close.

GO OUT AND VOTE.

[THE POST YOU ARE SEEING MAY BE OUT OF DATE; PLEASE REFER TO THE POSTING TIMESTAMP.]

[news365timesindia]

[ad_1] GG News Bureau Mumbai, 23rd November. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction have decisively shifted Maharashtra’s political landscape by flipping over 70 seats from their parent parties to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The defections underline the seismic impact of splits in both the Shiv Sena (2022) and the NCP (2023), crippling the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and securing an unprecedented win for the ruling coalition. As of 12:30 pm, the BJP leads in 124 of the 288 Assembly seats, with the Mahayuti alliance firmly crossing the majority mark of 145. The defections from Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP to the Shinde-Pawar factions handed the BJP and its allies a significant advantage: Of the 57 seats where Shinde’s Sena is leading, at least 40 were previously held by the undivided Shiv Sena in 2019. Similarly, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction is leading in 37 seats, with 32 of these flipped from Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The MVA is struggling, leading in just 53 seats—Thackeray’s Sena in 18 and Sharad Pawar’s NCP in 13—leaving Congress as the strongest component with 22 leads. The Mahayuti alliance is projected to win 209 seats overall, with Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP contributing 57 and 37 seats, respectively. This consolidation has handed the BJP its best-ever performance in a Maharashtra Assembly election. Exit Polls and Ground Reality Exit polls had already predicted a Mahayuti victory, with most forecasts giving the alliance over 155 seats. However, the scale of the BJP’s domination and the weakness of the MVA exceed expectations. Historical Context and Political Drama Maharashtra’s political landscape has been marked by dramatic shifts since 2019. The BJP initially allied with the undivided Shiv Sena, but power-sharing disagreements led to the formation of the MVA. In 2022, Shinde’s rebellion dismantled the MVA government, aligning his faction with the BJP. In 2023, Ajit Pawar broke away from Sharad Pawar’s NCP, further fragmenting the opposition. Both defections faced legal and political challenges, including Supreme Court hearings on the legitimacy of the factions. What’s Next for Maharashtra With Mahayuti’s overwhelming win, Eknath Shinde is set to retain his position as Chief Minister, while Ajit Pawar remains a key deputy. For the opposition, the results signal a need for introspection and re-strategizing to remain politically relevant in a state that has decisively shifted towards the BJP and its allies.   The post Maharashtra Election 2024: Shinde Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP Flip Over 70 Seats to Boost Mahayuti’s Landslide Victory appeared first on Global Governance News- Asia's First Bilingual News portal for Global News and Updates. [ad_2] Source link

[news365times]

[ad_1] GG News Bureau Mumbai, 23rd November. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction have decisively shifted Maharashtra’s political landscape by flipping over 70 seats from their parent parties to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The defections underline the seismic impact of splits in both the Shiv Sena (2022) and the NCP (2023), crippling the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and securing an unprecedented win for the ruling coalition. As of 12:30 pm, the BJP leads in 124 of the 288 Assembly seats, with the Mahayuti alliance firmly crossing the majority mark of 145. The defections from Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP to the Shinde-Pawar factions handed the BJP and its allies a significant advantage: Of the 57 seats where Shinde’s Sena is leading, at least 40 were previously held by the undivided Shiv Sena in 2019. Similarly, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction is leading in 37 seats, with 32 of these flipped from Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The MVA is struggling, leading in just 53 seats—Thackeray’s Sena in 18 and Sharad Pawar’s NCP in 13—leaving Congress as the strongest component with 22 leads. The Mahayuti alliance is projected to win 209 seats overall, with Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP contributing 57 and 37 seats, respectively. This consolidation has handed the BJP its best-ever performance in a Maharashtra Assembly election. Exit Polls and Ground Reality Exit polls had already predicted a Mahayuti victory, with most forecasts giving the alliance over 155 seats. However, the scale of the BJP’s domination and the weakness of the MVA exceed expectations. Historical Context and Political Drama Maharashtra’s political landscape has been marked by dramatic shifts since 2019. The BJP initially allied with the undivided Shiv Sena, but power-sharing disagreements led to the formation of the MVA. In 2022, Shinde’s rebellion dismantled the MVA government, aligning his faction with the BJP. In 2023, Ajit Pawar broke away from Sharad Pawar’s NCP, further fragmenting the opposition. Both defections faced legal and political challenges, including Supreme Court hearings on the legitimacy of the factions. What’s Next for Maharashtra With Mahayuti’s overwhelming win, Eknath Shinde is set to retain his position as Chief Minister, while Ajit Pawar remains a key deputy. For the opposition, the results signal a need for introspection and re-strategizing to remain politically relevant in a state that has decisively shifted towards the BJP and its allies.   The post Maharashtra Election 2024: Shinde Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP Flip Over 70 Seats to Boost Mahayuti’s Landslide Victory appeared first on Global Governance News- Asia's First Bilingual News portal for Global News and Updates. [ad_2] Source link

[emma-radfemcanu]

I know that it is a different (very complicated) system but god it is wild to me how LONG American elections take

In the UK we had a general election this year, we have one every 5 years but sometimes they are called early. This one was called in May and we had it in July- although the Conservatives were very much on their last legs so it wasn't a complete out of nowhere surprise announcement

And then we know the result fairly early on. Polls are open between 7am and 10pm, and the exit poll comes just after the polls close. There are opinion polls beforehand and sometimes the exit poll is a bit of a shock in comparison (like the Con landslide in 2019) but when you have the exit poll, essentially you have the outcome

Labour took power literally the next day. No campaigning for literally years, or waiting for days for the result, and then waiting even more for the inauguration- it was called on 22nd May, we voted on 4th July, and Keir Starmer became PM on 5th July

[mariacallous]

India vote count shows Modi alliance heading to majority but no landslide

NEW DELHI, June 4 (Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance was winning a majority of seats about halfway through the count in the general election on Tuesday, but the numbers were well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls, TV channels said.

Modi's own Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was falling short of a majority of its own in the 543-member parliament, the trends showed. Having to depend on allies to form the government could introduce some uncertainty in policy-making as Modi has ruled with an authoritative hold in the last decade.

The Hindu nationalist BJP won a majority of its own when it swept to power in 2014, ending India's era of unstable coalition governments, and repeated the feat in 2019.

The prospect of Modi having to rely on allies spooked markets with stocks falling steeply. The blue-chip NIFTY 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab was down 4.8% and the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN), opens new tab was down 4.7% at 0833 GMT.

The rupee also fell sharply against the dollar and benchmark bond yields were up.

"A narrower-than-expected victory for Modi's alliance may raise doubts about the new government's ability to push through politically difficult reforms seen as crucial to sustain India's economic growth, which is already the world's fastest," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.

"Despite this, the fact remains that the BJP-led alliance is still set to win a third term, which means continuity in the government's infrastructure and manufacturing-led drive to boost economic growth."

Markets had soared on Monday after exit polls on June 1 projected Modi and BJP would register a big victory, and the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was seen getting a two-thirds majority and more.

At 0900 GMT, TV channels showed the NDA was ahead in nearly 300 of the 543 elective seats in parliament, where 272 is a simple majority, with about half the votes counted.

Full results are likely in several hours.

They showed BJP accounted for under 250 of the seats in which the NDA was leading, compared to the 303 it won in 2019.

The opposition INDIA alliance led by Rahul Gandhi's centrist Congress party was leading in over 220 seats, higher than expected. Congress alone was leading in nearly 100 seats, almost double the 52 it won in 2019 - a surprise jump that is expected to boost Gandhi's standing.

However, politicians and analysts said it was too early to get a firm idea of the voting trends since counting still had some way to go.

"It's a fair assessment to say 400 at the moment certainly looks distant," BJP spokesperson Nalin Kohli told the India Today TV channel, referring to some projections that gave over 400 seats to the NDA.

"But we need to wait...to have a final picture of the seats because the exit polls speak of a massive sweep, (and) the counting trends currently don't seem to match that," he said.

"The BJP-NDA will form the government, that trend is very clear from the start," he added.

POLICY SLOWDOWN

TV exit polls broadcast after voting ended on June 1 projected a big win for Modi, but exit polls have often got election outcomes wrong in India. Nearly one billion people were registered to vote, of which 642 million turned out.

However, if Modi's victory is confirmed even by a slim margin, his BJP and its allies will have triumphed in a vitriolic campaign in which parties accused each other of religious bias and of posing a threat to sections of the population.

Investors had cheered the prospects of another Modi term, expecting it to deliver further years of strong economic growth and pro-business reforms, while the anticipated two-thirds majority in parliament would allow major changes to the constitution.

"The biggest disappointment for the market is the fact that BJP does not have a majority (yet)...that opens up a Pandora's box because all the other players...are all quite volatile," said Dipan Mehta, founder director at Elixir Equities in Mumbai.

Bank of Baroda economist Sonal Badhan said the lack of a majority for BJP on its own could mean "some slowdown in policy decisions can be expected".

The seven-phase, seven-week poll that began on April 19 was held in searing summer heat with temperatures touching nearly 50° Celsius (122° Fahrenheit) in some parts.

More than 66% of registered voters turned out, just one percentage point lower than the previous election in 2019, squashing pre-poll concerns that voters might shun a contest thought to be a foregone conclusion in Modi's favour.

Modi, 73, who first swept to power in 2014 by promising growth and change, is seeking to be only the second prime minister after India's independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru to win three straight terms.