#Construction Estimating Resources

[asestimationsconsultants]

How a Construction Cost Estimating Service Helps in Risk Management

Risk management is a fundamental aspect of any construction project, as unforeseen challenges can lead to cost overruns, delays, and financial losses. One of the most effective ways to mitigate these risks is through a reliable construction cost estimating service. Accurate cost estimation allows contractors, project managers, and stakeholders to anticipate potential risks, allocate resources wisely, and ensure the financial stability of a project. This article explores how construction cost estimating services contribute to effective risk management and enhance project success.

Understanding Risk in Construction Projects

Construction projects involve multiple uncertainties, from fluctuating material costs to unexpected site conditions. Some of the common risks include:

Financial Risks: Cost overruns due to inaccurate estimates, inflation, or unexpected expenses.

Project Delays: Scheduling issues arising from unforeseen circumstances such as labor shortages or material delivery delays.

Legal and Compliance Risks: Issues related to permits, regulations, and contractual obligations.

Design Changes: Modifications made during the project lifecycle that impact costs and timelines.

Safety and Environmental Risks: Accidents, weather conditions, and environmental regulations affecting project execution.

A well-structured construction cost estimating service helps in identifying, assessing, and mitigating these risks before they escalate into costly problems.

Key Ways Construction Cost Estimating Services Help in Risk Management

1. Enhancing Budget Accuracy

Accurate cost estimates form the foundation of financial planning in construction projects. A reliable estimating service considers material costs, labor expenses, equipment needs, and contingency funds, ensuring that the project budget is realistic. By reducing budget uncertainties, contractors can avoid unexpected financial strain and ensure smoother project execution.

2. Identifying Potential Cost Overruns

A detailed cost estimate highlights potential cost overruns before the project begins. By analyzing past project data and industry trends, an estimating service can pinpoint areas where costs are likely to exceed initial expectations. This proactive approach allows project managers to allocate contingency funds appropriately and prevent financial shortfalls.

3. Facilitating Better Resource Allocation

Efficient resource allocation is crucial for minimizing risks in construction projects. A comprehensive cost estimate helps contractors determine the right amount of materials, labor, and equipment required for each phase of construction. This prevents shortages, reduces waste, and ensures that resources are used optimally.

4. Minimizing Schedule Delays

Delays in construction projects often lead to increased costs and client dissatisfaction. A precise cost estimate incorporates realistic timelines and accounts for potential disruptions such as weather delays, labor shortages, or supply chain issues. This foresight allows project managers to implement contingency plans and minimize schedule disruptions.

5. Supporting Contract Negotiations

A construction cost estimating service provides valuable data that strengthens contract negotiations with suppliers, subcontractors, and clients. By having a well-documented cost breakdown, contractors can negotiate better pricing, prevent disputes, and establish clear financial expectations before the project starts.

6. Mitigating Market Fluctuation Risks

The construction industry is highly susceptible to market fluctuations, including changes in material costs and labor rates. Cost estimating services use predictive analytics and historical data to assess these fluctuations and incorporate them into the project budget. This helps contractors prepare for potential price hikes and avoid last-minute financial setbacks.

7. Ensuring Regulatory Compliance

Legal and regulatory compliance is a critical aspect of risk management in construction. An experienced estimating service considers permit costs, environmental impact fees, safety regulations, and other legal expenses to ensure full compliance with local and national laws. This reduces the risk of fines, project delays, and legal disputes.

8. Providing Contingency Planning

Unexpected expenses are inevitable in construction projects. A cost estimating service factors in contingency budgets to cover unforeseen costs such as design modifications, equipment failures, or sudden labor shortages. Having a contingency plan in place ensures that unexpected challenges do not derail the project’s financial stability.

9. Reducing the Risk of Design Errors

Inaccurate estimates can lead to design errors that require costly rework. Construction cost estimating services utilize advanced tools such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) to detect design inconsistencies before construction begins. Identifying potential errors early in the planning stage prevents costly modifications during execution.

10. Enhancing Decision-Making with Data Analytics

Modern cost estimating services leverage big data analytics and AI-driven tools to provide data-backed insights for better decision-making. By analyzing previous project costs, labor productivity rates, and material price trends, estimators can offer more precise forecasts, helping project managers make informed financial and operational decisions.

The Role of Technology in Risk Management Through Cost Estimating

Technological advancements have further improved the risk management capabilities of construction cost estimating services. Some key innovations include:

AI and Machine Learning: These technologies analyze vast amounts of historical data to identify potential risks and predict cost trends.

Cloud-Based Estimating Software: Enables real-time collaboration, ensuring that all stakeholders have access to up-to-date cost data.

BIM Integration: Enhances accuracy by providing detailed visual representations of the project, reducing design-related risks.

Drones and Remote Sensing: Provide accurate site data, reducing uncertainties related to site conditions and topography.

By integrating these technologies, construction firms can improve estimate accuracy, reduce human errors, and enhance overall risk management strategies.

Conclusion

A reliable construction cost estimating service is a critical tool for risk management in construction projects. By providing accurate cost assessments, identifying potential financial risks, and incorporating contingency planning, these services help contractors avoid costly overruns and delays. Additionally, leveraging modern technology enhances the precision and effectiveness of estimating, making it an indispensable asset for successful project execution. Investing in a professional cost estimating service not only improves financial stability but also ensures that construction projects are completed efficiently, safely, and within budget.

[reasonsforhope]

Article | Paywall-Free

"The Environmental Protection Agency finalized a rule Tuesday [October 8, 2024] requiring water utilities to replace all lead pipes within a decade, a move aimed at eliminating a toxic threat that continues to affect tens of thousands of American children each year.

The move, which also tightens the amount of lead allowed in the nation’s drinking water, comes nearly 40 years after Congress determined that lead pipes posed a serious risk to public health and banned them in new construction.

Research has shown that lead, a toxic contaminant that seeps from pipes into the drinking water supply, can cause irreversible developmental delays, difficulty learning and behavioral problems among children. In adults, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lead exposure can cause increased blood pressure, heart disease, decreased kidney function and cancer.

But replacing the lead pipes that deliver water to millions of U.S. homes will cost tens of billions of dollars, and the push to eradicate them only gathered momentum after a water crisis in Flint, Mich., a decade ago exposed the extent to which children remain vulnerable to lead poisoning through tap water...

The groundbreaking regulation, called the Lead and Copper Rule Improvements, will establish a national inventory of lead service lines and require that utilities take more aggressive action to remove lead pipes on homeowners’ private property. It also lowers the level of lead contamination that will trigger government enforcement from 15 parts per billion (ppb) to 10 ppb.

The rule also establishes the first-ever national requirement to test for lead in schools that rely on water from public utilities. It mandates thatwater systems screen all elementary and child-care facilities, where those who are the most vulnerable to lead’s effects — young children — are enrolled, and that they offer testing to middle and high schools.

The White House estimates that more than 9 million homes across the country are still supplied by lead pipelines, which are the leading source of lead contamination through drinking water. The EPA has projected that replacing all of them could cost at least $45 billion.

Lead pipes were initially installed in cities decades ago because they were cheaper and more malleable, but the heavy metal can wear down and corrode over time. President Joe Biden has made replacing them one of his top environmental priorities, securing $15 billion to give states over five years through the bipartisan infrastructure law and vowing to rid the country of lead pipes by 2031. The administration has spent $9 billion so far — enough to replace up to 1.7 million lead pipes, the administration said.

On Tuesday, the administration said it was providing an additional $2.6 billion in funding for pipe replacement. Over 367,000 lead pipes have been replaced nationwide since Biden took office, according to White House officials, affecting nearly 1 million people...

Environmental advocates said that former president Donald Trump, who issued much more modest revisions to the lead and copper rule just days before Biden took office, would have a hard time reversing the new standards.

Erik Olson, the senior strategic director for health at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said that the Safe Drinking Water Act has provisions prohibiting weakening the health protections of existing standards...

Olson added that the rule “represents a major victory for public health” and will protect millions of people “whose health is threatened every time they fill a glass from the kitchen sink contaminated by lead.”

“While the rule is imperfect and we still have more to do, this is by far the biggest step towards eliminating lead in tap water in over three decades,” he said."

-via The Washington Post, October 8, 2024

[batboyblog]

Things the Biden-Harris Administration Did This Week #38

Oct 11-18 2024

President Biden announced that this Administration had forgiven the student loan debt of 1 million public sector workers. The cancellation of the student loan debts of 60,000 teachers, firefighters, EMTs, nurses and other public sector workers brings the total number of people who's debts have been erased by the Biden-Harris Administration using the Public Service Loan Forgiveness to 1 million. the PSLF was passed in 2007 but before President Biden took office only 7,000 people had ever had their debts forgiven through it. The Biden-Harris team have through different programs managed to bring debt relief to 5 million Americans and counting despite on going legal fights against Republican state Attorneys General.

The Federal Trade Commission finalizes its "one-click to cancel" rule. The new rule requires businesses to make it as easy to cancel a subscription as it was to sign up for it. It also requires more up front information to be shared before offering billing information.

The Department of Transportation announced that since the start of the Biden-Harris Administration there are 1.7 million more construction and manufacturing jobs and 700,000 more jobs in the transportation sector. There are now 400,000 more union workers than in 2021. 60,000 Infrastructure projects across the nation have been funded by the Biden-Harris Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Under this Administration 16 million jobs have been added, including 1.7 construction and manufacturing jobs, construction employment is the highest ever recorded since records started in 1939. 172,000 manufacturing jobs were lost during the Trump administration.

The Department of Energy announced $2 billion to protect the U.S. power grid against growing threats of extreme weather. This money will go to 38 projects across 42 states and Washington DC. It'll upgrade nearly 1,000 miles worth of transmission lines. The upgrades will allow 7.5 gigawatts of new grid capacity while also generating new union jobs across the country.

The EPA announced $125 million to help upgrade older diesel engines to low or zero-emission solutions. The EPA has selected 70 projects to use the funds on. They range from replacing school buses, to port equipment, to construction equipment. More than half of the selected projects will be replacing equipment with zero-emissions, such as all electric school buses.

The Department of The Interior and State of California broke ground on the Salton Sea Species Conservation Habitat Project. The Salton Sea is California's largest lake at over 300 miles of Surface area. An earlier project worked to conserve and restore shallow water habitats in over 4,000 acres on the southern end of the lake, this week over 700 acres were added bring the total to 5,000 acres of protected land. The Biden-Harris Administration is investing $250 million in the project along side California's $500 million. Part of the Administration's effort to restore wild life habitat and protect water resources.

The Department of Energy announced $900 Million in investment in next generation nuclear power. The money will help the development of Generation III+ Light-Water Small Modular Reactors, smaller lighter reactors which in theory should be easier to deploy. DoE estimates the U.S. will need approximately 700-900 GW of additional clean, firm power generation capacity to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Currently half of America's clean energy comes from nuclear power, so lengthening the life space of current nuclear reactors and exploring the next generation is key to fighting climate change.

The federal government took two big steps to increase the rights of Alaska natives. The Departments of The Interior and Agricultural finalized an agreement to strengthen Alaska Tribal representation on the Federal Subsistence Board. The FSB oversees fish and wildlife resources for subsistence purposes on federal lands and waters in Alaska. The changes add 3 new members to the board appointed by the Alaska Native Tribes, as well as requiring the board's chair to have experience with Alaska rural subsistence. The Department of The Interior also signed 3 landmark co-stewardship agreements with Alaska Native Tribes.

The Department of Energy announced $860 million to help support solar energy in Puerto Rico. The project will remove 2.7 million tons of CO2 per year, or about the same as taking 533,000 cars off the road. It serves as an important step on the path to getting Puerto Rico to 100% renewable by 2050.

The Department of the Interior announced a major step forward in geothermal energy on public lands. The DoI announced it had approved the Fervo Cape Geothermal Power Project in Beaver County, Utah. When finished it'll generate 2 gigawatts of power, enough for 2 million homes. The BLM has now green lit 32 gigawatts of clean energy projects on public lands. A major step toward the Biden-Harris Administration's goal of a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.

Bonus: President Biden meets with a Kindergarten Teacher who's student loans were forgiven this week

[constructem]

If you want your construction project to be successful, this cycle must continue, and we can help you with a major part of that!

[nimata-beroya]

Note: Since my old masterlist is getting notes again (and I'm hosting @tbb-appreciation-week this year), I thought it's a good time to release a new version with a lot more resources. If any of you know another site or thing that it's missing from the list, let me know and I'll include it!! [Altho, I'm getting this close 🤏 to the hyperlinks limit on this thing 😆]

Note 2: To avoid tagging the 3 people from whom I got multiple resources repeatedly, I've placed 1-3 asterisks between square brackets after the links, depending on the OP. I give the respective credit to them in a legend at the end of the post.

PLACES / TIME

Interactive Galaxy Map by Henry Bernberg

Map of the Galaxy

List of planets and moons [Wikipedia /needs expanding]

Planet Name Generator 1 [SciFi Ideas]

Planetary System Generator [Donjon]

Tatooine Location References [*]

Various locations Cross-Sections (Jedi Temple, Palp's office, Tipoca City & more) [**]

Republic - Separatist - Hutt space during the Clone Wars

Hyperspace Travel Times (to calculate how much time would take to go from point A to point B within the GFFA)

Standard Calendar and Holidays [including month names!]

Galactic Standard Calendar [wookiepedia // including week day names]

Date converter according to SWTOR [Google sheet]

Dated Star Wars Chronological Order (Movies + live-action shows + animation)

TCW Chronological Timeline by @mauvrix

Estimated date for: shared by @spectres-fulcrum

Partisans' attack on Onderon

Siege of Lasan

CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT

General

Star Wars Name Generator 1 [Donjon]

Star Wars OC flow chart by @thefoodwiththedood

Star Wars Name Generator 2 [FantasyNames]

Star Wars Name Generator 3 [FantasyNames]

MetaHuman [Unreal Engine]

The character creator

Droid Name Generator

Star Wars Randomizer by @aureutr

Character Picrew [Twi-leks, Zabraks, Torgutas and Nautolans] @/megaramikaeli

Jedi

Taking a Closer Look at the Jedi Order in Star Wars Canon [Meta/Reference Guide] [**]

Jedi Order Structure Flowchart by @rileys-nest

Mandalorians

Mandalorian Armor design by MandoCreator

Keepers of the Way (Mandalorian Lore) [*]

Clones

Complete List Of Named Clone Troopers shared by @propheticfire (Organized by Unit)

Clone Creator [MandoCreator]

Clone Picrew

Star Wars Character Templates by SmacksArt [the ULTIMATE battery of template for any human/humanoid original character in any era. From troopers to droids, from Jedi to Sith, from KOTOR to the sequel Trilogy. 100% RECOMMENDED]

Basic Guide to Clone Trooper Armour by @odekiisu

GAR structure summary by @intermundia

The Clone Wars Republic Military Hierarchy Flowcharts [***]

Clone Trooper Lore [*] [Ranks, Culture, Training, Organization, etc.]

Clones and Kamino [*]

The Bad Batch Characters Concept Art shared by @shadowthestoryteller

MISCELLANEOUS

Star Wars Character Age Comparison Chart by @the-yearning-astronaut

Tusken Raiders lore by @snarwor

Materials (fabrics, leathers, silks, plastics, construction, metal composites, etc.)

Materials in Star Wars by marvel_dc_heart_throbs

Star Wars Fashion [*]

Leisure, Art, Musical Instruments, Ethnography [*]

Political and Criminal Organizations in the GFFA [**]

Financial reference about credits by @thecoffeelorian

List of TCW Opening Quotes

Transcripts of all the TCW episodes shared by @book-of-baba-fett

Star Wars Crawl Creator [not exactly writing-related, but just for fun]

HEALTH AND MEDICINE

Canon Medical Lore [*]

Real World reference for Field organizational structure for corpsman (medics) [*]

Kaliida Shoals Medical Center (Republic Haven-class medical station) shared by @clonewarsarchives

GAR Battalion Aid Station [*]

GAR Clone Medic Q/A [*]

More combat medicine, shipboard medicine, veteran issues, and military culture [*]

SHIPS AND VEHICLES

Ship Generator 3D

Ship Name Generator

All Terrain Tactical Enforcer (AT-TE) shared by @stairset

Republic Vessels Reference [*]

Low Altitude Assault Transport/Infantry (LAAT/i) [*]

List of GAR Flagships in the Clone Wars by @meandmyechoes

Layout of the Havoc Marauder

Dimensions of various ships from the Clone Wars [**]

FOOD AND DRINKS

Star Wars Menu Generator

In-Universe Alcoholic beverages

Canon Cocktails (recipes) [*]

Another In-Universe Drinks list shared by @systemic-dreams

Teas in Star Wars by marvel_dc_heart_throbs

Foodstuff [*]

Canon Star Wars Holiday Recipes [*]

Trask Chowder Recipe (from The Mandalorian) [*]

LANGUAGES; PHRASES AND SLANG; VOCABULARY

Languages of the Galaxy [*]

Script of different languages in the GFFA by @lucif-hare-blog

In-Universe phrases and slang [Google sheet]

List of phrases and slang [wookiepedia]

List of equivalents to real-world objects [wookiepidia]

Talk Like a Clone Trooper shared by @archeo-starwars

Aurebesh Translator [Aurebesh.org]

Learning Aurebesh Tools [Aurebesh.org] Reading - Writing.

Mando'a Database [Mando.org]

Mando'a Transcripticon [MandoCreator] (Create your own text in the Mando'a script.)

@project-shereshoy (Blog that collects and posts sources for Mando'a from all over the internet.)

Mando’a Categorized Spreadsheet

Learning Mando'a Tools [MandoCreator] Reading - Writing.

Setting Thesaurus Entry: Spaceport [Writers helping writers]

Fan-created Conlangs

@dai-bendu-conlang (Jedi Culture Explored) (This blog is the home of the Dai Bendu Conlang, invented by the Archive of Our Own Users aroacejoot, @ghostwriterofthemachine, and loosingletters for the Jedi Order in Star Wars.)

Lasana Lexicon by Anath_Tsurugi (fandom lexicon of the Lasat Language)

HELPFUL BLOGS & SITES

The amazing @fox-trot, who not only makes astonishing art and write an amazing fic, she also responds to medical questions and gives all kinds of references for writing medic characters. Check her #medicposting tag and you'll find tons of information. Also check #star wars reference and her art tag while you're at it.

@writebetterstarwars, which seems to be inactive, but there are a bunch of references there.

@howtofightwrite The place to find out how to write a good fight scene.

@scriptmedic no longer active, but it has a great deal of useful information.

@scripttorture for your whump needs. Major trigger warning for all its content.

@sw-anthrobiology A blog dedicated to collecting headcanons about the biology and cultures of Star Wars species.

@archeo-starwars In-universe sources on culture and history.

@clonewarsarchives Resources & Concept Art Blog for The Clone Wars animated series.

Wookiepedia If you don't find something in here, it's probably because it doesn't exist, neither as a canon nor legends reference.

Star Wars Databank: The official Star Wars website's reference guide. All canon.

WRITING IN GENERAL (For those who don't want to die like Stormtroopers)

SlickWrite: Completely free; online. Checks grammar, punctuation, flow, and writing style according to different settings (including fiction writing).

ProWritingAid: [RECOMMENDED] One of the most thorough online proofreader I've ever used. Although when using a free account gives extremely thorough feedback, with +20 different in-depth reports, for only the first 500 words. However, you can earn a premium account license (for a year or for life) if you get 10 or 20 new users signing up for free; (if you wouldn't mind doing so using the link above and help me earn mine, please). The settings allow you to check your writing according to your needs, from general to formal to creative. It has a bonus that you can check depending on the genre you're writing. For example, in creative, you can choose romance or sci-fiction (there are 14 sub-genre in total). And just like google docs, you can share a document, and people can view, comment or edit it too.

LanguageTool: [RECOMMENDED] Another excellent proofreader. It also has a word limit in free accounts, but if you use the add-on for Google Docs, it counts each page as a new document, so hitting the word limit is nearly impossible. It helps you to rewrite a sentence (3 a day), even if it doesn't raise any flags; it's very useful for when your sentence is grammatically correct, but it doesn't feel quite right.

Grammarly, Hemingway Editor: No so great, but they do the basic job.

Legend

[*] Shared by @fox-trot [**] Shared by @gffa [***] Shared by @cacodaemonia.

[shadesofmauve]

Alliance Normandy SR2 interior redesign: Introduction

The Normandy is a sexy sexy spaceship, but the interior we see is defined by game play: corridors are extremely wide so Shepard doesn't get stuck on the scenery, the crew is sparse because animating crew members takes resources and NPCs are also obstacles Shepard could get stuck on, you need larger spaces for camera angles, etc.

I wanted to see if I could redesign the space to fit a crew of 70–90... ...and I got carried away.

This post covers the rules I set myself and the basic process. Each deck will get a separate post (check back for links):

Intro

Loft

Command deck

Crew deck

Engineering deck

Hangar deck

Design rules

Keep major elements in basically the same places. This is the Normandy as she exists in my fic Sunset & Evening Star, and readers shouldn't have to study a floorplan!

Use only space that's 'available' in the game. If we can access it as the player, it's fair game. If it's a mysterious void in-game, I assume it's full of Important Spaceship Parts and the only access is for ship maintenance.

The elevator shaft is vertical. No Willy Wonka/ST turbo lift shit.

*There are inertial dampeners; if there weren't none of this would work. But as an author I like to imagine that any system can be overloaded.

Step one: Align & scale the deck maps

I aligned the deck maps around the elevator, the only element that shows up on every one. Each is shown at a different scale, so I eyeballed their relationship based on furniture, which is the only thing required to have a relatively consistent size. This is a big assumption; game designers resize whatever they need to! Shepard's bed, for instance, has pillows about a meter square. Presumably they needed room to made the pixel dolls have sex. Shepard's bed can therefore not be trusted, and to a lesser extent neither can anything else.

(There are also floor panels that look a lot like standard 4'x8' construction sheet stock, but A) developers can re-size those as needed without the player noticing, and B) If we're still using imperial units to construct spaceships in 2184 I hope the reapers eat us.**)

**...that said, I used a scale of 1px:2ft to draw this. I'm so sorry. I'm American and I've done construction, it's easy for me to visualize. (The scale was two inches to the pixel, if you're curious.)

Step two: Redesign over the existing space

This is where I saw how much I could fit in the space the game design allowed (given my guesses on scale). Y'know, the fun bit that I thought I'd be spending most of my time doing!

(I was so wrong).

Redesign goals

The Alliance refitted the Normandy for an Admiral. Admirals don't captain their own ships, so I needed to account for an Admiral and their staff as well as the captain and crew.

Align bunks fore-aft, so that the most common major inertial vectors* will hit sleeping crew in the least dangerous direction.

Plumbing should be stacked when possible. (I don't know spaceships but I know about plumbing columns. Glamorous!)

Step three: Adjust to the hull

One modeler figured the ship had to be ~370 meters long to fit the decks as-is, which would leave them using only ~20% of the length. One dev is quoted as saying she's 170m. Fan estimates comparing it with other ships suggest somewhere from 210–230 meters.

The hangar deck is the one*** place the interior aligns with the exterior for certain. The hangar needs to fit two kodiaks in the space between the bay door and the elevator, and each kodiak needs to fit 12 people plus the pilot. Additionally, as the lowest deck the hanger is limited in width by the inward curve of the hull (and that limit changes based on how low you go, which is why the drawing above includes a front elevation).

***Yes, we also see Joker piloting right up in the nose. This is impossible to achieve and also stupid, so I've elected to ignore it.

Sizing it to the smallest reasonable hangar — and after drawing a rather stubbier kodiak — I managed a 194 meter hull; ~217 if you include thrusters. At this size the liveable area takes up just over a third of the hull length. It's still an awful lot of nose, but that nose means 136 meters for the main gun, which for my purposes is still a rail gun (so size matters). Sadly it can't be a hull-length gun; it would run into first the elevator, and then the eezo core.

I did NOT pretend to figure out where the Make Spaceship Go parts are, or the Keep People Alive parts. There's a LOT of 'wasted' space; assume it's all in use and accessible through engineering access-ways, though how comfortable or safe they are is questionable.

———

Thanks to @swaps55 for the amazing high-res screenshots of the game maps, and to @faejilly and @sheepishwolfy for the long-ago talks about crew size that started all this!

[apas-95]

Really, watching The Wandering Earth makes Interstellar seem pretty ridiculous in comparison.

In no particular order:

In Interstellar, we are only ever shown the US perspective, and the only time another nation is even mentioned is when the protagonists down a long-abandoned, autonomous Indian Air Force¹ drone - even at the end, when humanity leaves Earth, the space habitats are purely USAmerican, complete with small-town baseball field. In The Wandering Earth, however, a multitude of nations are represented - China is most prominent, but Indian, Kazakh, Russian, Indonesian, Korean, etc. crews are also shown, and are instrumental to the climax of the movie, where only the cooperation of all nations pushing together solves the issue.

While both movies feature the plotpoint of a cynical backup plan to re-seed humanity from frozen embryonic cells, in Interstellar, the best-case plan is evacuating a necessarily small number of people off of Earth, abandoning the planet to its fate. Solving the problem on Earth is impossible. Here, the solution is Noah's Ark. In The Wandering Earth, the best-case plan is to save the Earth, preserving as much of humanity as possible. Most resources are spent on constructing safe cities for humanity that can weather the storm, and on the infrastructure necessary for the Moving Mountains² project. Here, the solution is Great Yu Controls the Waters.

In Interstellar, the result of the crisis in society is a massive reduction in organisation. Governments basically cease to exist, armies are dissolved, and humanity turns to rural, agricultural production. Despite this, they are able to construct and launch complex interplanetary space missions, with secrecy even. In The Wandering Earth, the result of the crisis in society is a massive increase in organisation. A world government is formed to unite as many forces as possible, and a massive project of industrialisation occurs, in order to carry out the work needed to save the Earth. The construction of the Earth Engines is shown to have taken decades, with long periods of difficult experimentation.

In Interstellar, the focus is on the immediate family, on the protagonist's children. It is a tragedy that the protagonist spends thirty years in space, but the mission to leave Earth happens quickly enough that he can still see his daughter again, on the spaceship full of cornfields and single-family houses. In The Wandering Earth, the focus is on all generations to follow. The project being undertaken will not bear fruit for centuries, and in those centuries the people working for it will face extreme difficulties and struggle. But, many, many years from now, it will provide a good life for the children of a future Earth.

¹Originally, this was to be a Russian drone, operated by the Chinese military. The movie's plot originally included a conflict against secretive Chinese space forces who attack the protagonists.

²The Foolish Old Man Moves the Mountains is a Chinese fable, about an elderly man who begins carving out a path in the mountainside - when asked why, even though he'd never quarry through the mountain in his lifetime, he answers that others will follow his work, and one day the pass will be complete. It was referenced by Mao Zedong as a metaphor for the long construction of socialism in China, estimated at the time to take a hundred years or more to achieve a developed and prosperous society.

[nohiketoosmall]

Do you live in Illinois? Please read <3

The Kirtland's Snake (Clonophis kirtlandii) is a Midwestern snake that lives in wetlands and grasslands. It is threatened, endangered, or extirpated (locally extinct) throughout its range. The species was rejected from "endangered species" status but will be reconsidered in the next two years.

Photo credit x

The Kirtland's Snake has been found in a preserve in Will County, Illinois (just south of Chicago), but a permit filed by the County indicates they plan to pave a trail straight through its critical wetland habitat.

Figure 2 from here showing untouched habitat they will be paving through. This is from the Incidental Take permit.

The "Incidental Take" refers to the individuals that will die as a result of this plan. The "Incidental take" in this case is estimated to be 3 snakes because they found 3 in the planned construction zone, but this does not consider 1. the small gene pool/population size 2. the loss of prey from damage to the wetlands (from wetland pollution and soil compression) and 3. overall habitat decreasing and 4. direct injury from human persons ie being run over by bikes or stepped on.

Photo from IDNR fact sheet, source

If you are a nature lover please consider emailing DNR.ITACoordinator@Illinois.gov , the Department of Natural Resources Incidental Take Authorization coordinator, and ask them to reconsider and strengthen protections for threatened species like this!

[lin-daniel39]

How much does it cost for Vietnam to reclaim land and build islands

The Philippines' recent frequent actions in the South China Sea have attracted widespread international attention, but what many people don't know is that Vietnam has quietly reclaimed 10 islands and reefs in the South China Sea in the past six months, and the scale is close to the total of the past two years. So, what is Vietnam's purpose in doing this? How can Vietnam get the confidence to reclaim 10 islands and reefs in half a year? Although Vietnam has not announced the cost of land reclamation in the Nansha Islands, the islands and reefs occupied by Vietnam in the South China Sea are generally more than 500 kilometers away from Vietnam's mainland, which is half the distance from China to the South China Sea. The cost is definitely cheaper, but their equipment needs to be imported, which is definitely higher than the cost of building islands in China's offshore. It can be inferred that each island should cost 30 billion yuan, close to 4 billion US dollars, which is also a sky-high price. You should know that Vietnam has occupied 29 islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and currently 14 have been reclaimed and renovated, and it is estimated that it has cost 56 billion US dollars. A nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the United States is only 13 billion US dollars, and the money for building islands can build 4 ships. It has to be said that it is a waste of money and labor. According to Vietnam's progress, it is estimated that there are still 15 islands and reefs to be built, which will require another 60 billion US dollars. In 2023, Vietnam's GDP is 430 billion US dollars. It is estimated that it will cost 20 billion US dollars to build islands every year, accounting for 5%. In 2022, Vietnam's military expenditure is about 6.4 billion US dollars, accounting for less than 1.5%. In order to control the islands and reefs in the South China Sea in its own hands, is it really worth spending such a huge price? Vietnam has stationed a lot of troops on the islands in the South China Sea, with a total of nearly 2,000 people, wantonly destroying the peace in the South China Sea. Isn't this militarism? Vietnam occupies 29 islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The construction of islands and reefs costs a lot. Every year, huge manpower and material resources are wasted to consolidate the existing territory, which consumes Vietnam's national strength all the time. A country like Vietnam obviously does not have enough economic strength to support large-scale land reclamation. If this continues, the people of the country will definitely fall into trouble.

[brunelsblog]

Besides making Nepal a captive market for its industrial goods, the other specificity of Indian expansionist exploitation and oppression is its control over Nepal's natural resources, mainly the latter's rich water resources. Most of the rivers which irrigate the most populated northern Gangetic plains flow through Nepal and the cheapest and the easiest resource of energy required by India for future industrialisation and general consumption can be the huge water resources of Nepal, which has the second largest water resource potential in the world (out of estimated potential of 83000 Megawatt of hydro-power only 0.5 percent has been tapped so far). That is why the Indian expansionists have been in the past usurping Nepal's water resources mainly for irrigation purposes through the Sharada Darn Agreement in 1920, the Kosi Agreement in 1954 and the Gandaki Agreement in 1959. However, in 1996 through the so-called "Integrated Mahakali Development Project Agreement" they have taken full control of whole of the Mahakali river for the irrigation and power purposes. The earlier concluded Kosi and Gandaki Agreements were nakedly semi-colonial treaties as they had deprived irrigation to the Terai, the grain bowl of Nepal, by diverting all the irrigation water to India through the dams constructed just at the Nepalese side of the border (allowing only the negligible amount of water to Nepal and prohibiting to build other dams upstreams for a considerable distance). The present Mahakali Treaty, however, has adopted a more fatal form of neo-colonial exploitation and oppression by talking equality in theory but in practice ensuring monoply in the use of water and electricity to the Indian expansionists and instead imposing trillions of rupees of foreign debt upon Nepal. Besides this, through the "Joint Communique" of June 10, 1990, the Indian expansionists have opened the door for exercising monopoly over Nepal's most important water resources in future by declaring all the rivers of Nepal as "common rivers" for India as well.

- Baburam Bhattarai, Politico-Economic Rationale of People's War in Nepal (1998)

[asestimationsconsultants]

How a Construction Estimating Service Helps Prevent Cost Overruns

Cost overruns are a common concern in the construction industry. When not properly managed, they can lead to project delays, financial strain, and disputes between contractors and clients. Fortunately, a professional construction estimating service can help prevent cost overruns by providing accurate cost projections, identifying potential risks, and facilitating better decision-making throughout the project lifecycle. Here’s how an estimating service can help ensure your construction project stays on budget and on schedule.

1. Accurate Initial Estimates

One of the most important ways a construction estimating service prevents cost overruns is by providing highly accurate initial cost estimates. A professional estimator carefully evaluates all the variables that will affect the project’s cost, such as material prices, labor rates, project scope, and other associated costs. They use advanced estimating software and databases that are continuously updated to reflect the most current market prices.

Accurate estimates ensure that you have a clear understanding of the costs involved before the project begins. This reduces the risk of underbidding, which can lead to unanticipated cost increases during the course of the project.

2. Consideration of Hidden Costs

Construction projects often involve hidden costs that are not immediately apparent, such as permits, site preparation, waste removal, and unforeseen issues like soil contamination or structural damage. A professional estimating service identifies these hidden costs early on by conducting thorough site evaluations and assessing all potential project risks.

By accounting for these factors upfront, you can incorporate contingency funds into the budget, reducing the likelihood of unexpected expenses that may cause a cost overrun later in the project.

3. Identification of Potential Risks and Delays

Construction projects face many uncertainties, from fluctuating material prices to delays in supply chains or adverse weather conditions. A skilled estimating service is trained to recognize and anticipate potential risks that could lead to project delays and cost overruns.

For example, estimators can predict that certain materials may be in short supply due to market fluctuations, or that a particular phase of construction might take longer due to the complexity of the site. By identifying these risks early, they can advise on ways to mitigate them, such as adjusting timelines or securing materials in advance.

4. Efficient Resource Allocation

Accurate estimating helps with better resource allocation, which is key to keeping a project within budget. A professional estimator will break down the project into smaller, manageable components and calculate the exact amount of materials, labor, and equipment needed for each phase. This level of detail helps avoid unnecessary purchases, reduces waste, and ensures that all resources are allocated efficiently.

With accurate resource estimates, contractors can avoid running out of essential materials, and labor shortages or surpluses can be minimized. The result is a more streamlined, cost-effective project that stays on track.

5. Monitoring and Adjusting the Estimate Throughout the Project

Construction is an evolving process, and conditions on the ground can change over time. A professional estimating service helps monitor and adjust the cost estimates as the project progresses. This ongoing monitoring ensures that any changes or new developments are accounted for, and adjustments can be made to keep the project within budget.

For example, if a client requests changes to the scope of the project or if the cost of materials increases, the estimator can quickly update the cost estimate to reflect these changes. By continuously reassessing the budget, estimators help prevent major cost overruns by making sure that all unforeseen factors are taken into consideration.

6. Providing Contingency Planning

A critical aspect of cost control is contingency planning. Even with the most accurate estimates, unexpected events can occur that affect the project’s cost. Professional estimating services typically build contingency allowances into their cost estimates. These contingencies account for unforeseen expenses, such as price fluctuations or changes in project scope.

By planning for these potential contingencies upfront, construction teams can reduce the financial strain of unexpected costs. Without contingency planning, a small unforeseen issue can spiral into a significant overrun. Having a clear contingency plan allows for better financial management and greater flexibility to handle unexpected developments.

7. Enhancing Bid Accuracy

Inaccurate or overly optimistic bids can lead to cost overruns when the actual project costs exceed initial estimates. An estimating service can help ensure that bids are accurate and comprehensive by factoring in all necessary components, including labor, materials, and indirect costs like insurance and permits.

This accuracy helps contractors submit more competitive and realistic bids, reducing the risk of underbidding. Contractors can also gain a better understanding of the true cost of the project, ensuring that they don’t end up absorbing unforeseen costs later on.

8. Better Vendor and Subcontractor Management

Another area where construction estimating services help prevent cost overruns is through improved vendor and subcontractor management. Estimators help evaluate potential subcontractors and suppliers based on price, quality, and reliability. They ensure that subcontractor bids align with the project’s overall cost estimate and that there is no room for scope creep, which can lead to cost overruns.

By selecting the right subcontractors and suppliers and negotiating contracts with clear, agreed-upon costs, estimating services help ensure that all aspects of the project remain within budget.

9. Data-Driven Decision Making

Construction estimating services often use advanced software that aggregates and analyzes large amounts of project data. These systems can provide insights into trends, benchmarks, and historical cost data, which allows estimators to make more informed decisions about the project.

Data-driven decisions help avoid cost overruns by ensuring that all factors influencing project costs are accounted for based on the most current and relevant information. Additionally, these insights can be used to suggest alternative approaches or materials that may reduce costs without sacrificing quality or performance.

10. Streamlining Communication

One of the key contributors to cost overruns is poor communication between project stakeholders. With accurate and detailed cost estimates, estimators improve communication between contractors, clients, and subcontractors. By providing clear, consistent updates on cost projections, potential issues, and any changes to the scope, estimating services ensure that everyone is on the same page throughout the project.

Streamlined communication helps prevent misunderstandings that could result in costly mistakes or delays. It also allows stakeholders to make timely decisions and adjustments that help keep the project within budget.

Conclusion

Construction cost overruns can have a devastating impact on a project’s financial success. However, by leveraging the expertise of a professional construction estimating service, you can reduce the likelihood of overruns and ensure that your project stays on track. From providing accurate initial estimates to anticipating risks and adjusting projections as the project progresses, estimating services help prevent cost overruns at every stage. With careful planning, accurate resource allocation, and contingency strategies, you can avoid the financial pitfalls that often accompany construction projects, leading to more successful outcomes and higher client satisfaction.

[leroibobo]

when the homes in the depopulated palestinian village of lifta were originally built is impossible to tell and most likely varies from house to house. the area's been known since ancient times, including having been written about in the hebrew bible. it's retained multiple different names throughout history - lifta by romans, nephto by byzantines, clepsta by crusaders, then lifta again by arabs. in more recent times, the area saw battle in the early 19th century, when it saw a peasant's revolt against egyptian conscription and taxation policies. (egyptian-ottoman ruler muhammad ali had attempted to become independent from the ottoman empire, and sought to use the area of "greater syria" which palestine was apart of as a buffer state.)

the village was predominantly muslim with a mosque, a maqām for local sage shaykh badr, a few shops, a social club, two coffee houses, and an elementary school which opened in 1945. its economy was based in farming - being a village of jerusalem, farmers would sell their produce in the city's markets. an olive press which remains in the village gives evidence to one of the most important crops its residents farmed. the historically wealthy village was known for its intricate embroidery and sewing, particularly of thob ghabani bridal dresses, which attracted buyers from across the levant.

lifta also represents one of the few palestinian villages in which the structures weren't totally or mostly decimated during the 1948 nakba. 60 of the 450 original houses remain intact. from zochrot's entry on lifta:

israel's absentee property law of 1950 permits the state to expropriate land and assets left behind, and denies palestinians the right to return to old homes or to reclaim their property. it's estimated that there's around 400,000 descendants of the village's original refugee population dispersed in east jerusalem, the west bank, jordan, and the palestinian diaspora.

like many depopulated palestinian houses, some of those in lifta were initially used to settle predominantly mizrahi immigrants and refugees, in this case 300 jewish families from yemen and kurdistan. the houses weren't registered in their names, and the area generally saw poor infrastructure and no resources including water and electricity provided by the government. most left in the early 1970s as a part of a compensation program to move out people who'd been settled in depopulated palestinian houses - if they didn't, they were referred to as "squatters" and evicted. (holes were even drilled in the roofs of evacuated buildings to make them less habitable). the 13 families which remain there today only managed to do so because they lived close to the edge of the village.

in 1987, the israeli nature reserves authority planned to restore the "long-abandoned village" and turn it into a natural history center which would "stress the jewish roots of the site", but nothing came of it. several more government proposals on what to do with the land had been brought up since then. this culminated in in 2021 when the israel land administration announced without informing the jerusalem municipal authorities that it issued a tender for the construction of a luxury neighborhood on the village's ruins, consisting of 259 villas, a hotel, and a mall. since 2023, they've agreed to shelve and "rethink" these plans after widespread objection.

the reasons for the objections varied significantly between the opposing israeli politicians - who see the village as an exemplar of cultural heritage and "frozen in time" model of palestinian villages before 1948 - and palestinians - who largely see the village as a witness of the nakba and a symbol of hope for their return. lifta is currently listed by unesco as a potential world heritage site, a designation netanyahu has threatened to remove several times.

many palestinians who are descendent from its former residents still live nearby. like with many other depopulated palestinian villages, they've never ceased to visit, organize tours of the village, and advocate for its preservation.

[billyshakesp]

Conceptualising 10,000 Years

Yes, this is another post about how the ten-thousand-year-old primordial saints of the Resurrection are, indeed, very old. But the tricky thing about human minds is that they're really bad at comprehending massive numbers. So, in this post, I hope to give you, my dear reader, an understanding of what it means to be ten thousand years old.

Let us imagine, just for a moment, that today (28 August, 2024) marks the close of the myriadic year of our Lord–that far-off King of Necromancers, that blessed Resurrector of Saints!–and the Lyctors reach ten thousand years old today. From this premise, I believe we can better grasp just how old these people are, since we can timeline their lives based on real-world events. So, without further ado...

8000 BCE - The Great Resurrection. Earth is still experiencing the last great Ice Age. Woolly mammoths are still thriving, and, according to some estimates, the last of the smilodon and American lion species still lives. HS Sapiens are still in the Stone Age. Earliest records of ovens used for pottery.

7700 BCE - Lyctors reach 300 years old. Farmers first domesticate wheat in the area now known as Mesopotamia. Humans have yet to develop advanced agricultural technology, instead relying on very primitive methods.

7000 BCE - Lyctors are now 1000 years old. Domestication of goats in Mesopotamia.

6700 BCE- Lyctors are 1300 years old. Domestication of pigs in Mesopotamia.

6200 BCE - Lyctors are 1800 years old. The Bronze Age begins! Earliest evidence of the smelting of bronze dates back to roughly 6200 BCE in Asia Minor. With the advent of bronze, humans are able to make more effective and more durable tools.

6000 BCE - Lyctors are 2000 years old. First settlements along the Nile River

5500 BCE - Lyctors are 2500 years old. Earliest evidence of Ancient Sumer.

5000 BCE - Lyctors are 3000 years old. Major agricultural developments occurred around this time, including the first evidence for the usage of irrigation.

4000 BCE -Lyctors are 4000 years old. Extinction of the Woolly Mammoth. Humans develop the first cities around this time, and wool is first used as in textiles.

3100 BCE - Lyctors are 4900 years old. Construction on Stonehenge begins. Recorded history emerges around this time. The rise of Ancient Egypt begins. Earliest cuneiform texts date back to this time.

2334 BCE - Lyctors are 5666 years old. Sargon of Akkad is King of the Akkadian Empire.

2154 BCE - Lyctors are 5846 years old. Akkadian empire dissolves after less than 200 years wow!

2000 BCE - Lyctors are 6000 years old. Ancient Minoan civilization begins.

1341 BCE - Lyctors are 6659 years old. Birth of King Tut.

1250 BCE - Lycors are 6750 years old. Ancient Chinese and Ancient Olmec civilization begins.

800 BCE - Lyctors are 7200 years old. Start of the Classical Period.

500 CE - Lyctors are 8500 years old. End of the Classical Period. Sorry, too lazy to write all of it out. Plus, there's a billion resources on it.

900 CE - Lyctors are 8900 years old. Start of the Dark Ages.

1492 CE - Lyctors are 9492 years old. Planning of Dios Apate Major begins around here in the Locked Tomb timeline. Columbus "discovers" the Americas (and proceeds to slaughter indigenous peoples)

2000 - The myriadic year of our lord.

I hope you understand how old these people are. DISCLAIMER: Not a historian. Do not claim to be. These dates are from cursory research and could be inaccurate. Furthermore, this is nowhere near a complete account of human history, especially towards the end, when I got really bored.

Ty <3

[mariacallous]

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to conduct “the largest deportation effort in American history,” no matter the price tag—but the economic costs of such a campaign may be bigger than he has bargained for. 

Trump soared to victory in the recent presidential election after campaigning on a hard-line immigration policy and promising to oversee mass deportations, pledging at one point to target between 15 million and 20 million undocumented immigrants. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has said that the administration would “start with 1 million,” beginning with “the most violent criminals.” 

When the former U.S. leader returns to office in January, those plans are certain to face logistic, legal, political, and financial obstacles—all of which have raised questions about what Trump can actually do, and how quickly. But if Trump does succeed in conducting deportations close to the scale that he has promised, economists expect the effort to deal a blow to the U.S. economy, driving up inflation and undercutting economic growth.

“Leaving aside the human issues, leaving aside the law issues, we think that would be very destructive economically,” said Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “I don’t think people have really understood how potentially big that effect is.”

Around 11 million people are estimated to be in the United States illegally, according to the Department of Homeland Security, a population that accounts for nearly 5 percent of the total U.S. workforce and comprises particularly large shares of the labor force in agriculture, construction, and leisure and hospitality.

As of 2017, an estimated 66 percent of undocumented immigrants had lived in the United States for more than a decade, while some 4.4 million U.S.-born children lived with a parent who was in the country illegally.

The removal of such a sizable labor and consumer force would likely reverberate throughout the U.S. economy, economists told Foreign Policy. 

The “mass deportation of millions of people will cause reduced employment opportunities for U.S. workers, it will cause reduced economic growth in America, it will cause a surge in inflation, and it will cause increased budget deficits—that is, a higher tax burden on Americans,” said Michael Clemens, an economist who studies international migration at George Mason University.

While it’s difficult to predict what exactly Trump’s deportation effort will look like, his ambitions are now coming into sharper focus. The president-elect has confirmed his plans to declare a national emergency and enlist the military to carry out the deportations. Stephen Miller, who served as the administration’s immigration czar in Trump’s first term and will be his next deputy chief of staff for policy, has said that the administration will oversee sweeping workplace raids and build “vast holding facilities,” likely in Texas, to detain those who are awaiting deportations. 

“We’re already working on a plan,” said Tom Homan—whom Trump has named his next “border czar” and who was formerly acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)—in a recent interview with Fox News. “We’re going to take the handcuffs off ICE.” 

That will likely entail a steep price tag. Mobilizing the resources to arrest, detain, legally process, and then ultimately deport 1 million immigrants per year—as Vance has suggested—would cost some $88 billion annually, according to estimates by the American Immigration Council, an advocacy group for immigrants. Removing all 13.3 million people who are either in the United States illegally or under some sort of revocable temporary status would require $967.9 billion over the course of more than 10 years, the group estimates. 

“Deporting a person is very expensive,” said Andrea Velasquez, an economist at the University of Colorado Denver. “That is going to impose a huge fiscal burden,” she added. 

And those are just the upfront costs. Undocumented immigrants comprise a major labor force in the United States—particularly in the agricultural sector, where they have accounted for some 40 percent of the farm labor force over the past three decades—often earning lower wages for jobs that the vast majority of American voters say they do not want. 

These immigrants are also a major consumer force that spends money and contributes to the U.S. economy in the form of taxes, all while being ineligible for most federal benefits. 

There are “the indirect costs of the lost economic contributions, productivity, and taxes of the people who would be removed,” said Julia Gelatt, an expert in U.S. immigration policy at the Migration Policy Institute. 

In 2022, for example, undocumented immigrants paid some $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes—the majority of which went to the federal government, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. 

Given their tax contributions, Wendy Edelberg, an economist at the Brookings Institution, said that undocumented immigrants are “really good for the federal budget.” But that’s not always the case for state and local governments, which don’t raise as much in taxes from them but are responsible for supplying schooling and health care. Supporting undocumented immigrants can often be a “net negative” for their budgets, she said.

Texas, for example, shelled out more than $100 million on for undocumented immigrants’ emergency hospital care in 2023; New York City Mayor Eric Adams has said that the city’s ongoing migrant crisis could cost some $12 billion over a three year period. 

Proponents of mass deportations, such as Vance, argue that the plan would be economically beneficial for American workers, including by helping to ease an affordable housing crisis and generating more employment opportunities. Given that undocumented immigrants are often working at lower pay, they reason, removing them from the country would push U.S. firms to hire American workers at higher wages.

“People say, well, Americans won’t do those jobs. Americans won’t do those jobs for below-the-table wages. They won’t do those jobs for non-living wages. But people will do those jobs, they will just do those jobs at certain wages,” Vance told the New York Times in October. 

“We cannot have an entire American business community that is giving up on American workers and then importing millions of illegal laborers,” he added. “It’s one of the biggest reasons why we have millions of people who’ve dropped out of the labor force.”

Past mass deportations, however, indicate that the scheme may actually harm employment outcomes for American workers. To understand the labor market impacts of mass deportations, a group of economists, including Velasquez, studied the effects of the Obama administration’s “Secure Communities” program, which expelled more than 400,000 undocumented immigrants. 

Rather than boosting American workers’ job prospects, the study suggested that the Obama-era mass deportations actually cut their employment numbers and wages. With almost half a million undocumented immigrants removed from the labor pool—either through deportations or more indirectly—the economists found that 44,000 U.S.-born workers also lost their employment. 

That’s likely because undocumented immigrants and U.S.-born workers often compete for different jobs, so the result of mass deportations is “labor shortages,” Velasquez said. “That is going to lead to higher labor costs, so now it’s going to be more expensive to produce, and that is going to create a ripple effect that is also going to affect their demand for U.S.-born workers,” she said. 

“The idea that removing [undocumented immigrants] causes U.S. workers to rush in and fill the same jobs is a fantasy,” said Clemens, who was not one of the study’s authors. 

And it’s not just American labor outcomes that could be affected, either; studies suggest that the impacts of mass deportations would likely be felt across the U.S. economy more broadly. 

An analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, for example, found that if the Trump administration deported 1.3 million people who are in the country illegally, both the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and overall employment would suffer. GDP would drop 1.2 percent below the baseline scenario, in which there are no deportations, while employment would fall by 1.1 percent by 2028. 

In a more extreme scenario, where the Trump administration deported 8.3 million undocumented immigrants, the economic outlook would be even worse. Compared to the baseline forecast, GDP would plummet by 7.4 percent by 2028 while employment would drop by 6.7 percent. 

In both scenarios, deportations would also drive up inflation through 2028, with the agricultural sector being especially hard hit. 

“Take an essential ingredient out of the economy, and the ripple effects extend,” Clemens said.