#Bahkmut

[ukrainenews]

Daily Wrap Up May 15-16, 2023

Under the cut:

The UK prime minister Rishi Sunak and Dutch leader Mark Rutte have agreed to build an “international coalition” to help procure F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine, the British government has announced.

Ukrainian forces have taken back about 20 square km (7.5 square miles) of territory from Russian forces around the eastern city of Bakhmut in recent days, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Tuesday.

The renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is critical to limit "future shock" to the security of global food supplies, the International Rescue Committee said in a statement on Tuesday. "The looming expiration of the Black Sea grain deal risks further food market instability at a time of record food insecurity," the humanitarian organization said. "With 349 million people across 79 countries estimated to experience acute food insecurity this year, the Black Sea grain deal must be extended."

Ukraine said on Tuesday it had shot down six Russian Kinzhal missiles in a single night, thwarting a weapon Moscow has touted as a next-generation hypersonic missile that was all but unstoppable.

Drone attacks were reported in Russia's Kursk and Bryansk oblasts over the past 24 hours, according to local officials and independent media.

The UK prime minister Rishi Sunak and Dutch leader Mark Rutte have agreed to build an “international coalition” to help procure F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine, the British government has announced.

A Downing Street spokesperson said Sunak and Rutte “would work to build an international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F-16 jets”.

“The prime minister reiterated his belief that Ukraine’s rightful place is in Nato and the leaders agreed on the importance of allies providing long-term security assistance to Ukraine to guarantee they can deter against future attacks.

“The leaders agreed to continue working together both bilaterally and through forums such as the European Political Community to tackle the scourge of people trafficking on our continent.”

The statement on Tuesday came a day after Ukraine’s president hinted that Kyiv could soon receive F-16 fighter jets, saying he was hopeful of “very important” decisions on the subject with the help of the UK.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy flew in by helicopter for a one-to-one unnanounced meeting with Sunak on Monday at Chequers, the prime minister’s country retreat.

Standing next to Sunak after the meeting, Zelenskiy said they had discussed fighter planes “because we can’t control the sky”, and was positive about persuading the US and other western nations to supply them.

“We spoke about it and I see that in the closest time you will hear some, I think, very important decisions, but we have to work a little bit more on it,” he said.

At the meeting, Britain also promised to supply “hundreds of attack drones”.

The UK said in February that it would begin training Ukrainian pilots in standard Nato techniques, and Downing Street repeated that on Monday, saying the plan was to help “build a new Ukrainian air force with Nato-standard F-16 jets”.

Britain does not use F-16s, which are made by the US defence firm Lockheed Martin in South Carolina. Ukraine has been seeking to obtain them for some time to augment its small Soviet-standard air force because they are widely available, with about 3,000 in service in 25 countries.

Both countries will have to persuade the US if Ukraine is to receive F-16s. Asked later on Monday if the US had changed its position on supplying the jets to Ukraine, John Kirby, a spokesperson for the White House’s national security council, gave a one-word reply: “No.”

-via The Guardian

~

Ukrainian forces have taken back about 20 square km (7.5 square miles) of territory from Russian forces around the eastern city of Bakhmut in recent days, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Tuesday.

She said on the Telegram messaging app that Russian forces had advanced “somewhat” in the city of Bakhmut itself, and that heavy fighting continued.

She said: “The enemy is advancing somewhat in Bakhmut itself, completely destroying the city with artillery. In addition, the enemy is raising units of professional paratroopers.

“Heavy battles continue with different results. In the current situation, our troops are doing their best and even more.

“The fact that the defence of Bakhmut lasts for so many months and there are advances in certain areas is the strength of our fighters and the high level of professionalism of the defence command.

“I will remind you that the enemy has an advantage in the number of people and weapons. At the same time, thanks to the actions of our military, he has not been able to implement his plans in the Bakhmut direction since last summer.”

-via The Guardian

~

The renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is critical to limit "future shock" to the security of global food supplies, the International Rescue Committee said in a statement on Tuesday.

"The looming expiration of the Black Sea grain deal risks further food market instability at a time of record food insecurity," the humanitarian organization said. "With 349 million people across 79 countries estimated to experience acute food insecurity this year, the Black Sea grain deal must be extended."

The grain initiative, which is set to expire on May 18 if not renewed, is a deal between Russia and Ukraine allowing the safe exportation of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

According to the IRC, as much as 90% of imports into East African countries are shipments supported by the grain deal. Should these imports stop, there will be a "spike in the number of undernourished people" to almost 19 million in 2023, it said.

IRC East Africa Emergency Director Shashwat Saraf said in the statement that food shortages and a lack of affordable fertilizer are increasing food prices, making it difficult for people in countries like Somalia to "predict if they will be able to afford a meal the next day."

"The expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is likely to trigger increased levels of hunger and malnutrition, spelling further disaster for East Africa," he continued. "Constructive extension of the grain deal means bringing in more food into the global system and, as a result, helping to lower soaring costs and to maintain market stability." "It is crucial the international community unequivocally stands behind maintaining Ukraine’s grain exports," he added.

-via CNN

~

Ukraine said on Tuesday it had shot down six Russian Kinzhal missiles in a single night, thwarting a weapon Moscow has touted as a next-generation hypersonic missile that was all but unstoppable.

When asked about the Ukrainian claim, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed it, the RIA news agency reported.

The number of claimed Ukrainian missile intercepts in general is "three times greater than the number we launch", RIA quoted Shoigu as saying.

"And they get the type of missiles wrong all the time. That's why they don't hit them," he said, without elaborating.

It was the first time Ukraine had claimed to have struck an entire volley of multiple Kinzhal missiles, and if confirmed would be a demonstration of the effectiveness of Kyiv's newly deployed Western air defences.

The United States and the European Union have supplied Ukraine with weaponry to defend itself since Russia invaded in February 2022. EU and NATO member Hungary has refused, however, to provide any military equipment to neighbour Ukraine, and on Tuesday, the government said it had blocked the next tranche of the EU's off-budget military support known as the European Peace Facility.

Air raid sirens blared across nearly all of Ukraine early on Tuesday and were heard over the Ukrainian capital and the surrounding region for more than three hours.

"A year ago, we were not able to shoot down most of the terrorists' missiles, especially ballistic ones," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in praising the military's claim to the Council of Europe rights body in Iceland by video link.

"And I am asking one thing now. If we are able to do this, is there anything we can't do?"

The meeting of European leaders over two days was to focus on ways to hold Russia to account for its war, officials said.

Russia says its invasion was necessary to counter threats to its security posed by Ukraine's growing ties to the West. Kyiv and its allies call it an unprovoked war of conquest. Kyiv says it won't stop fighting until all Russian forces leave its land.

The six Kinzhals were among 27 missiles Russia fired at Ukraine over the past 24 hours, Ukraine's military General Staff said in its evening update on Tuesday, lighting up Kyiv with flashes and raining debris after they were blasted from the sky.

It was not clear which Western weapon Ukraine used to defeat the Kinzhals. The Pentagon had no immediate comment.

For its part, Russia's defence ministry claimed to have destroyed a U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defence system with a Kinzhal missile, the Zvezda military news outlet reported.

But the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said all had been successfully intercepted.

Kyiv authorities said three people were wounded by falling debris.

"It was exceptional in its density - the maximum number of attack missiles in the shortest period of time," Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's city military administration, said on Telegram.

Zvezda quoted the Russian ministry as saying the attacks had been aimed at Ukrainian fighting units and ammunition storage sites.

Zaluzhnyi said his forces had intercepted the six Kinzhals launched from aircraft, as well as nine Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea and three Iskanders fired from land.

Two S-300 missiles targeted infrastructure in Kostyantynivka, west of the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut, the General Staff update said.

-via Reuters

~

Drone attacks were reported in Russia's Kursk and Bryansk oblasts over the past 24 hours, according to local officials and independent media.

Independent Russian media publication Astra reported on May 16 that "three rounds of ammunition" were dropped by a drone onto a building of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in the village of Glushkovo in Kursk Oblast.

According to Astra, the incident took place at around 11:00 p.m. local time on May 15.

Five border guards were allegedly hospitalized with shrapnel wounds to the neck, stomach, and face.

Meanwhile, Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoyt reported on May 15 that a "Ukrainian drone" dropped an explosive device on a construction worker near the village of Plekhovo in the region. The construction worker was "lightly wounded" on his shoulder, Starovoyt said.

Bryansk Oblast Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz claimed on May 16 that a "Ukrainian drone" was shot down over the town of Klintsy in the region.

According to Bogomaz, there were no casualties and only the balcony of a residential building was damaged.

Russia's Investigative Committee publicly acknowledged on May 16 the drone attacks in Plekhovo and Klintsy, but not the alleged attack on the FSB office in Glushkovo.

There have been multiple reports since the start of the full-scale invasion about fires, explosions, and other acts of sabotage within Russia and the Ukrainian territories occupied by Moscow.

-via Kyiv Indpendent

[mundua]

[dialogue-queered]

At the beginning of 1915, the war on the Western Front had reached a stalemate. There were technical, strategic and doctrinal reasons for this. The machine gun changed tactics and killed soldiers by the hundreds, as did more accurate and concentrated artillery. Poor communications hampered the co-ordination of the different elements of the massive armies. A lack of protected mobility meant that even when a breach was made in enemy lines, the enemy could more quickly fill the gap than the attacker could exploit it.

Recently, this has become the analogy of choice for some writing about the war in Ukraine. Articles in publications from in the United States, Britain and beyond have all touted theories of the current “stalemate in Ukraine”. It makes for good headlines, but there is one problem: it just isn’t true.

The Collins dictionary defines stalemate as a “deadlock, draw, impasse … a situation in which neither side in an argument or contest can win or in which no progress is possible”. War is a complex tableau of military, diplomatic, technological, economic and societal endeavours. Therefore, a stalemate in war implies a situation of geographic, economic, military and intellectual stasis. This is not the case in Ukraine. Both sides in the conflict, and their supporters, have an enormous range of tactical and strategic options available to them in 2023.

What we are seeing instead is the normal ebb and flow of a long war being fought by well-resourced countries with external sources of support. After the initial burst of activity where each side seeks large, hard blows against the adversary to hopefully compel them to concede quickly, most wars settle into a cycle of pulses and pauses.

The most recent pulse, with the Ukrainian offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, saw huge amounts of territory returned to Ukraine through the courage and innovation of its military forces, and the military, intelligence and technical support of the West. These offensives provided a boost to the morale of the Ukrainian people. They also reinforced that the Ukrainians are quite capable of defeating the Russians.

Importantly, the offensives also resulted in a lower tempo of operations. Humans, even well motivated ones, need a break from operations to reflect, reinforce and relax before the fighting begins again. This is the low ebb of the cycle of war that we are seeing right now.

It is a very long way from a stalemate. There is a huge amount of activity being conducted even in this low tempo phase. Most of it remains invisible to the layman because it is not as exciting to report or because it is hidden by operational security and the normal fog of war.

The Battle of Bakhmut is draining away Russian and Ukrainian lives. Over the past several months, the Russian Army and the mercenary Wagner Group have competed to hurl tens of thousands of Russian soldiers against Ukrainian defensive lines which have been developed and improved since 2014. The town of Bakhmut has no strategic importance beyond its propaganda value for a Russian Army that has had no battlefield victories since the early days of this war. Yet, the fighting there is as bitter as any in this war and is resulting in mass casualties that few armies can sustain.

To the north, the Ukrainian Army presses on with its methodical advance towards the Kreminna-Svatove-Starobilsk triangle. Unlike the battle to the south, this offensive will have important strategic outcomes if the Ukrainians succeed. Within these towns are key transport and logistic support hubs for the Russian Army in Luhansk Oblast. If Ukraine secures this critical triangle of cities, the Russian position in Luhansk is probably untenable, and its forces in Donetsk will be forced into a dilemma about how to orientate their troops.

There is much more occurring that we don’t see directly. Tactical reconnaissance on the ground, in cyberspace and in the air is occurring across the entire front, seeking weaknesses to exploit in the offensives to come. Training and equipping of new troops and formations is occurring – quickly - for these future offensives. Once trained, these formations are being deployed behind the lines and being readied to join the more experienced forces who are defending, scouting and preparing to advance. And changes in command are being made in preparation for attacks in the northern spring, such as the appointment of the Russian general Valery Gerasimov last week.

The strategic fight also rages unabated. Russian missile and drone attacks continue to cause the death of civilians and impact on power supplies, as they did again over the past weekend. The Russians probably have sufficient drones and precision missiles and rockets for several large-scale attacks on Ukraine each month. At the same time, both Ukraine and Russia continue to be energetic in the conduct of information operations in their own nations and beyond, seeking to retain the support of their partners and allies.

So, while we may not be witnessing the rapid advances of late 2022, there is still much activity going on in Ukraine. More importantly, both sides retain the military, economic and intellectual potential to innovate and act in creative ways to win battles and drain the resources of their adversary.

By no means are the main belligerents or their supporters yet in a position where “neither side in an argument or contest can win or in which no progress is possible”.

We may be in a lower tempo phase in this war, but this is a long way from a stalemate.

[taiwantalk]

It’s strangest thing that Russians and Chinese people like to do in boasting about things that could be easily trivial for everyone to accept if true.

I mean, just consider how ukraine kicked out Russians from Kyiv, Kharkiv, and kherson, there was no haste to stake photo ops like was done repeatedly by kadyrovites and wagners-when they tugged their tails on their way out in disorderly fashion while fearing to be outflanked, nobody needs picture to prove anything.

[captain-price-unofficially]

Ukrainian soldiers moving into a trench during the defense of the road to Bahkmut, April 2023

[theculturedmarxist]

Yves Smith asks:

What if Russia Won the Ukraine War but the Western Press Didn’t Notice?

She points to several headlines which, despite decisive Russian victories like its taking of Soledar, present the Ukraine as winning the war:

Nevertheless, Soledar has fallen and the loss of Bakhmut looks baked in, absent horrific Russian errors. The so-called Zelensky line is breaking even before Russia has put its recently-mobilized forces to work in a serious way. Regular commentators are waiting for the Russian hammer to fall, although Russia may simply grind more forcefully by pressing harder at more points along the very long line of contact. Remember one concern on the Russian side is avoiding “winning” in a way that leads to NATO panic and desperate action ... not that the Collective West’s fragile emotional state can be readily managed.

With that context, you’d expect some members of the press to have worked out that things are not going very well for Ukraine and the classic cowboy movie rescue of the calvary riding over the hill (here in the form of tanks and artillery) will be too little, too late.

Instead, the media seems to be trying to integrate snippets of facts on the ground with the heroic tale of inevitable Ukraine victory.

That is certainly correct for the wide majority of the stories, which claim that Soledar and Bahkmut, are irrelevant towns, but some pieces are creeping up that differ. A few days ago the Washington Post headlined:

Bloody Bakhmut siege poses risks for Ukraine

Ukraine faces difficult choices about how much deeper its military should get drawn into a protracted fight over the besieged city of Bakhmut, as Kyiv prepares for a new counteroffensive elsewhere on the front that requires conserving weapons, ammunition and experienced fighters.

Russia has escalated its assault in the area in recent days, unleashing savage fighting that has underscored the high cost of the battle. Russian mercenaries and released convicts from the Wagner group pushed into the neighboring salt-mining town of Soledar and inched closer to Bakhmut, the capture of which has eluded them for months despite an advantage in firepower and the willingness to sacrifice troops.

The piece quotes several Ukrainian soldiers which speak of huge losses on their side. But the U.S. is still egging them on:

The senior U.S. official cautioned against completely dismissing Bakhmut or neighboring Soledar as nonstrategic places that Kyiv can simply relinquish, noting that the salt and gypsum mines give the area economic significance. Theoretically, the Russians could use the deep salt mines and tunnels to protect equipment and ammunition from Ukrainian missile strikes. Moscow has also endowed the city with import.

“To some degree, Bakhmut matters to [Ukraine] because it matters so much to the Russians,” the senior U.S. official said, noting that control of Bakhmut is not going to have a huge impact on the conflict or imperil Ukraine’s defensive or offensive options in the country’s eastern Donbas region.

The official added, “Bakhmut is not going to change the war.”

I believe the senior U.S. official to be very wrong. Soledar and Bakhmut are bleeding the Ukrainian army dry. That is of relevance. Look at the insane number of Ukrainian units deployed on that only 50 kilometer (30mi) long sector of the front.

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

Zaluzhny has pulled units from other fronts like the Kreminna and Svatove sector further north in Luhansk province to feed them into Bakhmut. That has minimized any chance that the Ukrainian forces in those sectors will be able to make any progress.

What nearly all reports from Ukraine seem to miss is the huge damage that Russia artillery is causing on a daily base. Ukraine has little artillery left to respond to that and whatever it still has is getting less by the day.

A few weeks ago the Russian military started a systematic counter artillery campaign which has since made great progress. The typical western way of detecting enemy artillery units is by radar. The flight path of the projectile is measured and the coordinates of its source are calculated enabling ones own artillery to respond. But counter-artillery radar itself depends on radiating. It is thereby easily detectable and vulnerable to fire. Over the last months Russia deployed a very different counter-artillery detection systems with the rather ironic name of Penicillin:

Penicillin or 1B75 Penicillin is an acoustic-thermal artillery-reconnaissance system developed by Ruselectronics for the Russian Armed Forces. The system aims to detect and locate enemy artillery, mortars, MLRs, anti-aircraft or tactical-missile firing positions with seismic and acoustic sensors, without emitting any radio waves. It locates enemy fire within 5 seconds at a range of 25 km (16 mi; 13 nmi). Penicillin completed state trials in December 2018 and entered combat duty in 2020.

The Penicillin is mounted on the 8x8 Kamaz-6350 chassis and consists of a 1B75 sensor suite placed on a telescopic boom for the infrared and visible spectrum as well as of several ground-installed seismic and acoustic receivers as a part of the 1B76 sensor suite. It has an effective range for communication with other military assets up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) and is capable to operate even in a fully automatic mode, without any crew. One system can reportedly cover an entire division against an enemy fire. Besides that, it co-ordinates and corrects a friendly artillery fire.

The Penicillin system can hide in the woods and stick up its telescopic boom to look at and listen to the battlefield. As it does not radiate itself there is no good way for an enemy to detect it.

The system pinpoints Ukrainian guns as they fire. They are then eliminated by immediate precise counter-fire. As the artillery relevant part of today's 'clobber' list provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense claims:

Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised an artillery ordnance depot of 114th Territorial Defence Brigade near Veliky Burluk (Kharkov region), as well as 82 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware at 98 areas.

Counterbattery warfare operations have resulted in destruction of:

one Polish-manufactured Krab howitzer near Peschanoye (Kharkov region);

one U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin howitzer, and one fighting vehicle equipped with Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) near Lozovaya (Kharkov region);

one D-20 howitzer near Terny (Donetsk People's Republic);

two Giatsint-B howitzers near Maryinka and Orlovka (Donetsk People's Republic);

two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers near Nevskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), and Preobrazhenka (Zaporozhye region);

five D-30 howitzers near Zmiyevka, Novokairy (Kherson region), Sofiyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).

Four U.S.-manufactured counterbattery warfare radars have been destroyed:

two AN/TPQ-50 stations near Mylovoye and Dudchany (Kherson region),

one AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar near Ugledar (Donetsk People's Republic),

one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-48 counterbattery warfare radar near Senkovo (Kharkov region).

Air defence facilities have shot down six Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic), Nikolskoye, and Petrovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

14 rocket-propelled projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MLRS have been intercepted near Udy (Kharkov region), Smolyaninovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Donetsk, and Khartsyzsk (Donetsk People's Republic).

One U.S.-manufactured anti-radiation missile has been shot down near Radensk (Kherson region).

One Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile has been shot down near Berdyansk (Zaporozhye region).

The above is the equivalent of two artillery companies (batteries with six guns each) eliminated in just one day. Ukrainian counter-battery fire against Russian artillery is no longer possible as the necessary detection equipment gets eliminated and as Ukrainian counter-fire is shot down by Russian air defenses.

This Russian counter-artillery campaign has been going on for several weeks. It has disabled large parts of what was left of Ukrainian longer range capabilities. Meanwhile the Russian artillery keeps on knocking down Ukranian troops that hold the frontline. Only when all parts of the Ukrainian trenches have been hit by intense fire will the Russian infantry move in to clean up whatever is left behind.

This form of battle is causing huge losses on the Ukrainian side while the Russian forces incur just a minimum of casualties.

In his recent talks Col (ret.) Douglas Macgregor put the deaths in Ukraine forces at 150,000 and casualties at 450,000. I, like Yves Smith, doubt that number of wounded is that high. As the system of Ukrainian battlefield extradition and hospitalization is in a bad state there will be less wounded and likely more dead.

In a huge contrast to U.S. waged wars, the civilian death count on the Ukrainian side is remarkably low:

Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential staff, said at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos, “We have registered 80,000 crimes committed by Russian invaders and over 9,000 civilians have been killed, including 453 children.”

Feeding more troops into the battle in the Bakhmut sector, as the Ukrainian side has been doing, is not a good use of resources.

We can state that Ukraine has by now lost the nominal equipment of two larger armies.

At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian army was said to have some 2,500 tanks, 12,500 armored vehicles and 3,500 large artillery systems. It is doubtful that more than half of those were in a usable state but they may have received enough repair to be workable.

The Russia military claims that most of those have been eliminated:

7,549 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 984 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,853 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,081 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

If one doubts those numbers one has to ask why the Ukraine has needed to import so many more weapons and is still short of them:

410 Soviet-era tanks delivered by NATO members in former communist bloc, including Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia.

300 [Armored/Infantry Fighting Vehicles], including 250 Soviet-designed IFVs from former communist states.

1,100 [Armored Personnel Carriers], including 300 M113 troop carriers and 250 M117s.

300 towed howitzers. 400+ pieces of self-propelled artillery, of which 180 is on order.

95 [Multiple Rocket Launchers]

There were also a number of fighter airplanes, helicopter and air-defense systems. The above was the second army, after Ukraine's original one was mostly gone, that has by now been nearly eliminated.

The Russian clobber list now regularly reports of combat with Ukraine forces that kills, for example, one tank, three armored vehicles and a number of pick-ups and motor vehicles:

One Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group has been eliminated near Liman Pervy (Kharkov region). The enemy has lost over 50 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, and two pickups. … [In Donetsk direction] over 60 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, three armoured fighting vehicles, and six motor vehicles have been eliminated. … Two AFU sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been eliminated in the area to the north of Levadnoye and Vladimirovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy has lost up to 40 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.

Pick-ups and unarmored motor vehicles should avoid the frontline and certainly not be part of force attacking the immediate frontline. If these reports reflect the current structure of Ukrainian forces, as I believe they do, than its state is indeed dire.

In his Economist interview General Zeluzhny has requested a third army to be delivered to him immediately:

“I know that I can beat this enemy,” he says. “But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles], 500 Howitzers.”

As the Economist writer dryly noted:

The incremental arsenal he is seeking is bigger than the total armoured forces of most European armies.

The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of 'western' equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine's third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the 'West' has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.

That then leaves only two options. Send in 'western' armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.

The neo-conservatives as ever favor the first option. President Joe Biden may still be against sending U.S. soldiers but this could change if he indeed gets blackmailed into doing it:

[A]s the ‘classified documents’ scandal gains momentum, the malleable president will likely fall-in-line and do whatever the hawkish foreign policy establishment demands of him. In short, the documents flap is being used by behind-the-scenes powerbrokers who are blackmailing the president to pursue their own narrow interests. They have Brandon over-a-barrel.

There is no evidence that this is happening but the signs are there.

The second option is to declare a non-existent victory and to forget about the whole issues.

But will the 'western' media, as Yves asks, notice any of this?

As commentator David correctly remarks at Yves' site:

I’ve said for a long time now that the West will be able to claim “victory”, or at least not defeat, by establishing fantastical victory conditions that the Russians never had and never wanted, and then claiming credit for frustrating them. With luck, this will just about enable western elites to hang onto power, at least temporarily.

"Putin tried to conquer Europe but we stopped him after he took only half of Ukraine," will sound like victory. But it is of course extremely far from the truth. Anyway, the media may well buy it:

But in the wider sense, we’re seeing the latest and most degenerate stage of the stupidity and ignorance which has afflicted the western media and pundit class over the last year. They didn’t know about the war in the Donbas, nobody told them Russia had the strongest army in Europe, nobody knew about the defensive lines in Donbas, nobody understood the seriousness of the Russian threats, nobody realised the Russians hoped for a short, sharp war to bring the Ukrainians to their senses, nobody understood why Russia went over to Plan B while it mobilised, nobody realised the Russians had been stockpiling weapons and ammunition for years; nobody knew what attrition warfare was …. In other words, the most disgraceful example of ignorance and stupidity of any ruling class in modern times. It will go on to the end, and “victory” will be proclaimed.

The war the U.S. provoked in Ukraine has been won by Russia even when no one wants to note it.

[kontrou]

Eu em Bahkmut Ucrânia.

[theseventhoffrostfall]

Now that both Ninja and Brandon are here playing Starcraft, with the rest of their gamer group on speakerphone, I get to hear them pronounce the word Zealot as "Zee-Lot" for hours almost every day. Starting to regret not going back to Bahkmut for that sketchy clusterfuck contract with Mexican Steve

[nordic-noire]

On Ukraine, two years in...

The word 'strategic defeat' is often used to describe Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and not without good reason. All of Russia's initial goals failed within the first month, and Russia has been humiliated over and over again. However, a Russian strategic defeat and a Ukrainian victory are unfortunately not synonymous.

After the Kremlin was alarmed by the rout of its forces in Kharkov, it has dug in and mobilized, effectively freezing the front lines. While Russia may be seemingly hopeless in combined arms advances, it can fight a long-term, well prepared defense just fine.

Ukraine hoped to cause a shock-and-awe rout on the left bank of the Dnipr, but both due to Russian preparation and Ukrainian mistakes the offensive failed.

Ukraine continued the failed offensive for months, burning through manpower and ammunition in return for no strategic advantages.

Russia is able to maintain its losses with extensive conscription and brutal disciplinary measures on its front line troops.

Holding the annexed territories is the only way Putin can justify the war anymore, and Ukraine was not able to breach the Russian defenses. Currently only a black swan event that collapses the Russian army will enable Ukraine to liberate its occupied territories. In the medium term, it's unlikely anything will cause such a collapse.

Both Ukraine and the West should consider the war a long-term attritional conflict, where Ukraine's main objective should be to cause maximum casualties. With the US position being increasingly unreliable and dangerous, Europe is finally ramping up ammunition production, but the policy must actually be followed through and the ammunition delivered.

The West must equip Ukraine with the ammunition to enable Ukraine to fight a long-term defense.

Ukraine must cause maximum casualties while avoiding battles where own casualties are high eg. Avdiivka, Bahkmut.

F-16 fighters will not change the situation, but will provide welcome air cover for the army. Air power cannot occupy or hold territory.

Indifferent to casualties, Putin will never back down. While the Russian soldiers deservedly suffer horribly on the front, unfortunately so do the Ukrainians. Victory is reserved for those who are willing to pay its price, and for the time being, the Kremlin is willing to sacrifice much more than the West.

'Victory is reserved for those who are willing to pay its price.'

[ughgarbageblog]

Me: I don't care about fashion.

Also me: Military uniforms are making another comeback into mainstream fashion. See below: Flowdan and Lil Baby at "Battle of the Baddest," Riyadh, October 2023/ Ukrainian 22nd Mechanized Brigade outside of bahkmut/ Ukrainian forces near Krynky

[ukrainenews]

Daily Wrap Up February 23, 2023

Under the cut:

The UN General Assembly approved a resolution Thursday denouncing the Russian attack on Ukraine and demanding Moscow withdraw its troops. There were 141 votes in favor, seven opposed and 32 abstentions — including China. The seven countries voting against the resolution were Belarus, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea.

Finland will send three Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and train soldiers how to use and maintain them, the Finnish Defense Ministry confirmed on Feb. 23.

Moldova has dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday that Ukraine planned to invade the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria after staging a false-flag operation, and called for calm, Reuters reports. Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, accused Moscow earlier this month of planning a coup to overthrow the government and drag Transnistria into its war.

The Ukrainian military says that Russian forces attempted unsuccessful assaults along several parts of the front lines in the north of Ukraine— including along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions — an area where the Russians have been trying to break through for several weeks.  Meanwhile in the east: In its daily update Thursday, the military's General Staff said that Russian forces continue to attack in several locations around the city of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian units are trying to keep access to the city open. It said 13 settlements in the area had come under fire.

“The UN General Assembly approved a resolution Thursday denouncing the Russian attack on Ukraine and demanding Moscow withdraw its troops.

There were 141 votes in favor, seven opposed and 32 abstentions — including China.

The strength of countries passing the resolution shows no diminishing in levels of support for Ukraine and against Russia.

There are no vetoes in General Assembly voting.

The resolution is not legally binding but has demonstrated overwhelming support for Ukraine a year after Russia's invasion.

Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and President Volodymyr Zelensky commended the resolution.

“By voting in favour of today’s UNGA resolution 141 UN member states made it clear that Russia must end its illegal aggression,” Kuleba tweeted. “Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be restored. One year after Russia launched its full-scale invasion global support for Ukraine remains strong.”

Zelensky expressed his gratitude to the countries that voted in favor and tweeted: “I am grateful to all the countries that endorsed the crucial @UN General Assembly resolution ‘Principles of the Charter of the United Nations that underline the comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.'"”-via CNN

“The seven countries voting against the resolution were Belarus, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea.

The resolution was adopted after amendments proposed by Belarus that would have stripped much of the language were resoundingly defeated.

Foreign ministers and diplomats from more than 75 countries addressed the assembly during two days of debate, with many urging support for the resolution that upholds Ukraine’s territorial integrity, a basic principle of the UN charter that all countries must subscribe to when they join the world organisation.”-via The Guardian

~

“Finland will send three Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and train soldiers how to use and maintain them, the Finnish Defense Ministry confirmed on Feb. 23.

This announcement comes on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The three tanks are part of Finland's latest defense aid package to Ukraine, totaling 160 million euros. Finland has provided over 750 million euros in aid since the start of the invasion.

"Ukraine continues to need support in its defence. We will send more defence materiel and participate in the Leopard cooperation together with our partners," said Finnish Defence Minister Mikko Savola.  

Finland joins a growing coaltion of European nations, including Germany, Spain, and Norway, that have pledged tanks to Ukraine.”-via Kyiv Independent

~

“Australia will send drones to Ukraine and expand sanctions against Russian government, military and media figures as part of a pledge to stand with Kyiv “for as long as it takes”.

Announcing the new support on the first anniversary of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the government said the sanctions would also target “those spreading mistruths to justify this war”.

The package includes travel bans and asset freezes for a further 90 Russian individuals and 40 Russian entities, including the state-owned media outlet Sputnik.”-via The Guardian

~

“Moldova has dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday that Ukraine planned to invade the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria after staging a false-flag operation, and called for calm, Reuters reports.

Earlier we reported on Russia’s defence ministry accusing Ukraine of planning to invade Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region after a false-flag operation, citing reports from the RIA news agency.

The ministry said Ukraine planned to stage an attack purportedly by Russian forces from Transnistria as a pretext for the invasion, according to RIA.

Separately, the Tass news agency quoted the Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Galuzin as saying the west had instructed the Chisinau government to stop all interaction with the Moscow-backed Transnistrian administration.

Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, accused Moscow earlier this month of planning a coup to overthrow the government and drag Transnistria into its war.

The mainly Russian-speaking region broke away from the then Soviet Moldova in 1990. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, pro-Russia separatists fought a bloody war with the Moldovan government forces.”-via The Guardian

~

“The Ukrainian military says that Russian forces attempted unsuccessful assaults along several parts of the front lines in the north of Ukraine— including along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions — an area where the Russians have been trying to break through for several weeks.

The forests west of Russian-held Kreminna have seen fierce fighting since the Russians brought reinforcements into the area in December. But they have been unable to reach open land around the towns of Torske and Zarichne, which would bring them closer to larger cities in the Donetsk region.

There has also been fierce fighting further north, around the town of Svatove, but the front lines there have changed little.

"We did have escalation a few days back both in Svatove and Kreminna sectors. It was really hard on us when they attacked. It was quiet today though since our defenders have repelled powerful attacks in all directions, destroyed lots of manpower and equipment," Serhiy Hayday, head of the regional military administration in Luhansk, said. "They (Russians) have retreated to regroup I guess, to pull in some equipment," he added.

Hayday said that the Russians "throw a company of heavy equipment and a company of infantry on the offensive at the same time. They used to attack with one to two tanks plus a single platoon, now it's more than that."

Meanwhile in the east: In its daily update Thursday, the military's General Staff said that Russian forces continue to attack in several locations around the city of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian units are trying to keep access to the city open. It said 13 settlements in the area had come under fire.

Unofficial military accounts say that heavy fighting persists to the north and northwest of Bakhmut, where Russian units — including Wagner paramilitaries — are trying to take higher ground and tighten their grip on access routes into Bakhmut.  

Col. Yuriy Madyar of the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade said in a video message that "the situation on the northern flank is becoming more difficult. This is where they want to make possible encirclement of Bakhmut." He said Ukrainian units "are strongly holding the southern flank."

"Northern outskirts of Bakhmut were dynamic last night, it is now more quiet, so we’re preparing for the night ahead ... Southeast direction as well as south and southwest sectors are under constant enemy pressure."

The Ukrainian military also says cross border mortar and artillery fire continues in the north, with several places in the Sumy, Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions affected. Some analysts assess this fire is to fix Ukrainian defending units in the north, preventing them from being redeployed to the Donetsk region, where much of the heaviest fighting is concentrated.

In the south, the Ukrainian military claims that in the Russian occupied city of Melitopol, school children are taking the oath of "junior soldiers" (Yunarmiya).

And in Maripuol, it claims, "The occupiers are persuading locals to engage in equipping positions around the city in exchange for food rations, causing a humanitarian crisis."”-via CNN

[cyberbenb]

Update from Ukraine | Ukraine advances in Bahkmut | The weak spot in Ruzzian defense was found

[cheloo1-o]

The Battle of Bahkmut

[pouringmeout]

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sjs

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morning bahkmut taking heavey fire

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was just looking into war news and they took out a stock in my eyes gettibg hit and moved me to couch

then did up my nuts

please us thise AR 15 M 16 rifles crew

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Steven J. Shander

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Steadman Loves You

[captain-price-unofficially]

Bahkmut Blocking Troops Confirmed