#And then you have Orrin at 6' 3" not helping things

[tenpixelsusie]

sits ddown Talk about insjidejob to me Meow /nf .....:3

i think it's important to remember that while the show isn't the best ever, and while it has problems that should be discussed openly and critically when talking about it, i'm impressed with how it writes victims of abuse quite well. we can see that with reagan and brett that their reactions to their surroundings and the people around them present two results of abuse.

brett, in being neglected, put down, and discarded as a failure in his family, went RIGHT into people pleasing. and the thing is, it's clear that he doesn't realize that the things he experienced through childhood and the majority of his adult life are not normal or healthy, and we see him able to realize this through the episodes, from him realizing his frat brothers were just using him in part 1, to him commenting "yeah, no, i do hear it, it-it's bad.." when alpha beta expresses concern about the treehouse his family built him OUTSIDE of the main property in part 2. his casual dropping of factoids in his traumatic childhood were concerning, and he uses them as jokes many times, because how do you react to that?? (my mutual simplyender pointed this out on discord, i believe)

brett was slowly learning to gain his own backbone and finally stand up for himself near the show's ending, and if the show had continued, we would have seen him be able to heal from the treatment he got from his peers and family and confidently, well, do whatever.

reagan is a different result, with tamiko and rand's expectations and treatment of reagan leading her down a different path. due to much of rand's abuse and manipulation of reagan from a young age, she never was able to experience the normal, healthy childhood that she needed, and thus from skipping elementary school, we see that she was forced to grow up too fast (oof, hits close to home). she started training for cognito since she was 4 or 6 years old (according to rand in the mole hunt episode, i can't remember which it was right now), and due to rand, didn't get to remember her experiences with her one and only friend, so she grew up assuming that she had no friends at all. she absorbed many traits from her father, like prioritizing work over herself (to the point that she developed unhealthy habits like constantly relying on caffeine and prescriptions to keep herself awake), anger issues, and the classic using inventions to solve problems that had easier solutions.

rand was neglectful of reagan too, using bear-o in place of tending to her emotional needs, which caused reagan to develop trauma to touch because bear-o terrified her so much. poor reagan isn't used to genuine affection, to the point she's actively stunned when ron cups her face and kisses her in the appleton episode...

both reagan and brett mesh together into one giant ball of panic and bad coping mechanisms but... they care a lot for each other. their meeting was good for the both of them, and it seems as well that they help each other heal from these grievances.

brett was the first person since orrin that reagan felt comfortable hugging. he had that much effect on her life and... it's sad to see that we won't see more of them helping eachother take those stepping stones to heal.

[cksmart-world]

SMART BOMB

The completely unnecessary news analysis

by Christopher Smart

September 14, 2021

INLAND PORT TO INCLUDE AMUSEMENT PARK RIDES

Does anyone know what's going on with the Inland Port Authority Board — that small group of secretive and powerful people who will transform Salt Lake Valley from a crowded, polluted metropolis into a wonderful play-land for trucks and trains and all kinds of stuff that will make a few people very wealthy. But wait, there's more — the board reportedly has put together preliminary plans that will make everyone giddy, like Uncle Jack's Fleecing Ride and Mr. Hugh's No-Bid Giant Slide. But first, the board will create a “Public Infrastructure District” (PID) to borrow lots of money against property taxes the port will generate after it is built and people see that it won't cause air pollution or additional truck traffic and foul the Great Salt Lake wetlands. The ingenious slight-of-hand is that the PID is separate from the Port Authority, so if the PID can't repay the borrowed money, the Inland Port can skate — it's a special King's-X-up-yours kind of thing. Isn't it great how the Utah Legislature in all its wisdom knew the best way to become a mega-center was to create a planning and taxing entity not accountable to voters or taxpayers or even lenders. Maybe they aren't as dumb as they look — or maybe they have out-smarted themselves again. Duh.

UTAH OPTIMISTS: TOURISTS WON'T MIND WEARING GASMASKS

The world may be going to hell in a hand-basket, but here in Utah we have a thriving economy and more of everything than we'll ever need. At least that's the view of our leaders and others who truly are optimistic about the future. The staff here at Smart Bomb has added a few attributes to the Beehive State Optimists Club:

A Utah optimist is someone who thinks:

1 – Drought? Great — let's market and sell water.

2 – The Real Housewives of SLC make Burgess Owens look honest and ethical.

3 – The Delta variant? Cool, let's sell the state a truckload of the de-wormer ivermectin.

4 – The Texas anti-abortion law is awesome, it makes our legislature look thoughtful.

5 – Don't worry, the Great Salt Lake will come back and we'll need the Bangerter Pumps again.

6 – Dirty air? Well, they can't blame that on the Inland Port — yet.

7 – Don't worry, ski tourists won't mind wearing gas masks.

8 – Too many cars in Little Cottonwood Canyon? See, we do have The Greatest Snow on Earth.

9 – Skyrocketing real estate prices are fine — they keep out the riff-raff.

10 – And unrefrigerated beer at the State Liquor Store discourages drinking.

SNAKE OIL SALES UP IN RED STATE AMERICA

Right-wingers and conservative media love diet supplements. It's true. There is a link between snake oil and right-wing politics, says New York Times columnist Paul Krugman. Folks who believe Barack Obama was born in Kenya and Italian satellites switched votes to Joe Biden are the kind of people who treat health problems with remedies on Fox News, right-wing radio and secret websites. In 2014, Alex Jones’s Info Wars brought in more than $20 million, mainly from supplement sales. It's difficult to tell where the money game ends and the ideological one begins, says Rick Perlstein. “They are two facets of the same coin, where the con selling 23-cent miracle cures for heart disease inches inexorably into the one selling marginal tax rates as the miracle cure for the nation itself.” Donald Trump hyped hydroxychloroquine as a cure-all for Covid 19 as his administration was roiled by the pandemic. As a U.S. senator, Orrin Hatch helped the supplement business immeasurably and got repaid in kind. In 1994, Hatch championed the Dietary Supplement and Health Education Act allowing manufacturers to make health claims without going through the FDA to prove safety or efficacy. So step right up, this will cure what ails you, including Democrat hoaxes.

Post script — Well, that's about it for another beautiful week here in paradise, aka Zion, where we have the freedom to be as dumb as we want. Here's a fun fact: In 1777 Gen. George Washington ordered his troops to be inoculated against smallpox. So the anti-vaxers might what to re-think this freedom business. Get this, freedom lovers: In the USA children must be vaccinated against various infectious diseases before they can attend public schools — yes, even in Texas and Florida. They include vaccines against Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis, Polio, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Hepatitis A and B, Varicella and Meningitis. But now Republicans are going apeshit over Biden's mandate that all federal government workers and contractors get vaccinated against Covid. He's also ordered all employers with 100 or more workers to ensure they all get the shot. Fun fact: In 1901 a smallpox epidemic ravaged the Northeast leading the city of Boston to mandate all residents be vaccinated. It was challenged all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, where in a 1905 landmark ruling, the high court held that the government has the authority to infringe on personal freedoms during a public health crisis. Convenient memories or just Republican Reality —  you decide.

OK Wilson, everyone knows that the warm beer at the State Liquor Store has not discouraged the guys in the band from drinking. Let's just do what the band does for once. Let's just ignore all the pandemics, terrorists, anti-vaxers, wars and all the nut-jobs out there for just a while. Alright, hit it, Wilson:

Into this life we're born Baby sometimes we don't know why And time seems to go by so fast In the twinkling of an eye Let's enjoy it while we can Won't you help me sing my song From the dark end of the street To the bright side of the road From the dark end of the street To the bright side of the road We'll be lovers once again On the bright side of the road We'll be lovers once again on the bright side of the road

(Bright Side Of The Road — Van Morrison)

PPS — During this difficult time for newspapers please make a donation to our very important local alternative news source, Salt Lake City Weekly, at PressBackers.com, a nonprofit dedicated to help fund local journalism. Thank you.

[pendragonshoard]

Hey, i just saw your description and like. Tell me about your Ocs!

OH BOY OKAY

Tbh theres so much I'm not sure where to begin?

LETS JUST START AT THE BEGINNING

Here in the fantasy portion of the story are:

[Art by @aluckyartist]

^^These three lovelies - Members of Krielle's Rotal Family! From left to right we have:

1. Denzal - the middle child - whose magic abilities center around plants and foliage. He is especially good with handling relations with the Fair Folk

2. B - the youngest (half sibling) - whose magic allows them to absorb magical energy leaving them unscathed/unaffected (they can also use this energy to strengthen their own spells). They act as the kingdoms Archmage and right hand to their sister

3. Dianna - the Crown Princess (and Denzals' twin) - whose magic centers around water and ice, though she finds ice more practical. Shes the brains of the operation (and also the most nosy, she knows EVERYONES business)

[Art by @merupuri]

^^Here we have B with their personal guard:

4. Tatyenn - one year older than B - whose magic centers around lightning. Shes been friends with B since they were children, before Tatyenn was knighted and B was sent to the Faith's for mage training.

[Art by @aluckyartist]

^^This lovely mysterious gal is:

5. Taera (named for the earth goddess Taera), B's best friend. They met during Mage training became so close that when B graduated and moved back home, Taera decided to follow. Her magic centers around the earth, she's very sturdy.

6. Unillustrated, but still very important, we have a member of the Fair Folk, the Prince of Summer, Xenrys. Hes a large, dark red scaled dragon, and is Denzal's most common form of contact with the Fair Folk. (They're secretly dating)

Now, we jump ahead to the Sci-fi portion of the story, meeting:

[Art by @aluckyartist]

^^Here come the genderfluid bugs! Left to right is

7. Zirka - a bug based shapeshifting alien from the planet Callisto! Their magic allows them to bare their soul as a shield, manipulate it to move things around, and get into other peoples minds

8. Kriit - Zirka's bonded other half! Their magic allows them to absorb other beings souls into their own and become them, rather than just shifting their appearance to look like someone else! They can also make a "copy" of the person's soul to keep preserved in case of further need.

[Art by @aluckyartist]

(From left to right)

9. Kairi - an alien stranded on the planet Taera - Separated from her mother and brother, she sails Taeras seas on the ghost ship The Vagabond after asking Captain Raylan for help. Her magic centers around Glamours and Dreams (which are becoming more realistic by the day...). It helps her blend in with Taeras populace

10. Simar (Sim) - A native Taeran who's magic allows her to see the truth in everything, she sees Kairi for what she really is, though no one else can seem to see it. They become fast friends, and meet whenever The Vagabond is in Krielle's port

[Art by @aluckyartist]

^^This dragon boy is

11. Orrin - First Guardian of the planet Taera, one of Captain Raylan's closest friends. His magic centers around teleporting and shielding. Hes kind of a big baby, still young and unsure of what hes doing, but he IS doing his best!!!

[Art by @aluckyartist]

^^This guy doing his best Blue Steel is

12. Manji - Kairi's brother (in Taeran disguise). His magic centers around dreaming and Healing, and hes a big Mamas boy. He misses his sister terribly, and honestly remembers her more than Kai remembers him or their mother :(

[Art by @filibusterfrog]

^^Up next is a (begrudging) friend of Kairi, on the left is

13. Vex - An alien from the planet Jaiper (in Taeran disguise) sent looking for Kairi and her family by Kairi's father. She found Kairi in Taeran disguise (on the right) first.

14. Another unillustrated, but still very important person: Cenia! A Kraken-like being who swims under The Vagabond and helps fend off other ships and enemies. Shes the adoptive daughter of Captain Raylan and a good friend of Kairi

And that's all the main kids! Of course I have more, as well as fandom OCs, but this post was getting long lol

Thank you so much for asking anon! It made my day ❤❤❤

[breakmuses]

“I will never be like ordinary people. If I must be different, then let me keep that which sets me apart. As long as I can control this power, as it seems I now can, I have no objection to carrying this burden, for it shall be by my choice and not forced upon me by your magic, Eragon. Ha! From now on, I shall answer to no one and no thing. If I help anyone, it will be because I want to. If I serve the Varden, it will be because my conscience tells me I should and not because you ask me to, Nasuada, or because I’ll throw up if I don’t. I will do as I please, and woe unto those who oppose me, for I know all their fears and shall not hesitate to play upon them in order to fulfill my wishes.”

General:

Name: Elva

Nicknames: Silverbrow

Chronological Age: 16

Physical Age: 25

Mental Age: Unknown

Gender: Female

Orientation: Demisexual

Species: Human/Graceling

Grace/Power: Elva’s power is a type of prophetic mind reading, she can feel everything that people around has felt in the past, and even sense a bit into the future if she looks for it. If someone is going to be hurt however she can sense their future pain and tell what it is that causes it without trying to look.

History:

Elva’s mother was the only sister of Darby; she was married 3 years before Leck became King to an Inn Keeper who she had met on some errands out of the Castle. When he learned that she was pregnant with her first child he feared for the safety of the child’s life; knowing the danger that it would be in if she had a girl because of the kinds of things Leck did and managed to sneak her onto a ship. The ship however got caught in a storm out to sea, ending up in a land called Surda where her Mother met a women named Greta who was visiting the country on a trip from the Varden which was a Resistance group. Greta took Larina in immediately because of the fact that she had no family and the fact that King Orrin wasn’t to keen on having a strange Women who had washed up on the shore in the wreckage of a boat and had mismatched Sea Green and Ocean Blue eyes staying in his city. Her Mother in fact being a Graceling who was graced with being able to navigate and survive in the water longer then most anyone.

She made it back to the Varden where she was accepted into their fold; and gave birth to her daughter not 2 weeks after arriving only to die few days after; the strain on her body from the trip at Sea having been very bad; and then combined with the Trek back to the Varden’s Base of Operations–it’s likely that if she had not been Pregnant she wouldn’t have been able to hold on for as long as she did. Soon after that their was an attack on the Varden; and during the celebration of being victorious after wards was when the magic was put on her that corrupted her Grace; though it was far from an intentional thing-this is also when she received the star mark on her forehead. The magic caused her to grow and learn at an accelerated rate so that she would be able to help people with her ‘gift’; and within a few months she had grown to 6-7 years of age-though that was just a guess to her Physical age since you couldn’t really be sure.

From then on till the end of the war she worked as a body Guard to the leader of the resistance Nasuada; though she really doesn’t like to talk of the time she spent helping with the war because it was something she didn’t want to do-and she was able to feel the pain of everyone injured in any of the fights. Wither they were friend or foe. After the War in Alagaësia was over though she moved on; leaving with a Angela–having sought Greta out and offered for her to come with them after asking Angela if it was alright. Greta did come with them; however about 3 years after they left Greta fell ill; during this time they had been staying with the New Order of Riders, Elva having been chosen by a purple colored dragon who she named Esterní-meaning Good Fortune in the Ancient Language. When Greta came closer to death Nasuada sent word and said that they could come to say goodbye without fear of her trying to detain them and so her, Angela and Esterní flew back to Alagaësia.

Hours before her death Greta told Elva about her mother; and how she came from a land with 7 Kingdoms and an Evil King who clouded the minds of his subjects. She told her about her mother’s green and blue eyes; telling her that it was no wonder that her light blue eyes had turned to two different shades of Purple when she’s begun to grow faster. After Greta passed she asked Angela for help in finding the pace that Greta had talked off; but their was really no need to look. Angela had been to the land before; and had suspected for some time that Elva might have ancestors from their because of her mismatched dark purple left eye and bright-Amethyst like right eye. She suggested to the girl however that she return to the New Rider Order and compete her training before she left. And so she did gaining a sword that she named Raudhr, meaning misfortune, once she graduated to a full fledged Dragon Rider. After this she and Angela left, the Herbalist only accompanying her to show the young Dragon Riding Graceling how to get there.

[letterboxd]

Most Picture.

There are many ways to predict how the Oscars will go. How much money is the studio spending on the campaign? How highly rated are the nominated films? How much work have nominees put in during the awards season? Is it simply their time?

For this 2019 horse race, we thought it would be fun to go for a different metric. A fool-proof statistical analysis to find not what is the Best Picture, but what is the Most. And with that, we set about investigating the stats on rewatches of the eight films nominated for Best Picture.

It turns out that plenty in the Letterboxd community have logged the Best Picture nominees more than once, and in some obsessive cases, well into double figures. We had a feeling, based on anecdotal mood and general noise, that A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody would be right up there in the stanning stakes. And they are (read on for our Q&A with Letterboxd’s most obsessive A Star Is Born fan). But also: The Favourite made the top three, and the film you have rewatched the most left the other seven in the dust.

Without further ado, Letterboxd presents the 2019 “Most” Picture Awards, ranked by the number of members who’ve watched the 2019 Academy Award Best Picture nominees two or more times (total in brackets, as of today).

Each film features a review from its greatest fan, i.e. the Letterboxd member who has logged the film more than any other (at the time of writing).

And the 2019 “Most” Picture Awards go to…

1. Black Panther (13,268)

“Would I see this movie a personal record high of seven times in theaters? For Wakanda? Without question.” —Krys (12 watches, seven in cinemas)

2. A Star Is Born (5,943)

“TIRED: discourse about whether or not the film hates pop music, all think pieces about whether the film thinks Ally is a sell out and what that means for feminism, discourse on whether Why Did You Do That? is a bop or not.

WIRED: discourse about whether or not Jackson Maine even had an ass good enough to inspire such pop perfection.” —Juliette (16 watches)

3. The Favourite (5,378)

“I miss this so much I dreamt it. Instead of riding, Sarah was doing cartwheels.” —CBotty (15 watches)

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (4,928)

“The critics can go fuck themselves. THIS IS THE BEST MOVIE I HAVE SEEN! (for the fifth time).” —Iain (16 watches)

5. Roma (4,270)

“Yes I’ve seen this twice today, yes i cried like a bitch both times, yes this is the only movie.” —Eve (7 watches)

“My feelings regarding Roma are complicated to say the least. It’s like dating the girl of your dreams, only to realize that you are completely incompatible, which ends in desperate clinginess for an ideal that was never true to begin with. It’s been a strange journey of love, disappointment, and eventual acceptance, where I’ve come to terms with my feelings. I still admire the hell out of it, and I hope it wins all the awards in the world.” —Orrin (7 watches, admittedly more times than they have actually seen it)

6. BlacKkKlansman (3,669)

“This movie is so fucking powerful, and I loved every second of it.” —Kota (6 watches)

7. Green Book (1,370)

“OK what a way to start the new year. I love this movie so much. Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali are for sure going to get nominated (and it’s well deserved).” —Anthony (5 watches)

8. Vice (1,164)

“8.4/10” —Harrison (4 watches)

Unpacking the re-watchability of A Star Is Born.

“I just expect it to be exactly what it is and to be there.”

Of the eight Best Picture finalists, Black Panther has been out the longest, had the largest budget, and has done the rounds of the streaming services. It was always gonna take the top spot in a rewatch match. But to figure out the rewatchability of second-place-getter A Star Is Born, we went to the film’s hardest stanner, Juliette, to help us understand why fans keep coming back even though it’s a complicated watch.

While Juliette’s multiple reviews are meme-tastic, quippy, punctuation-free gems of observation, when we asked her to explain herself, she went remarkably deep. Her replies may just make you want to take another look at Ally and Jack. [Note: this interview contains spoilers for the film’s plot.]

How many times do you think you have seen A Star Is Born? Juliette: I think I have seen the film sixteen times? I know for certain I have seen it fourteen times in theaters, but I’m not sure how many times I’ve watched it in the comfort of my own home since it’s been released on digital. There’s just something about the energy in a theater while this film is being screened. It gives me chills just thinking about it!

What keeps you coming back to it? It's so hard to pinpoint what exactly it is that draws me back to this film time and time again. I love a good love story when properly executed! I’m kind of obsessed with celebrity culture! I love a great musical! And like many people, the subjects of this film: alcoholism, mental illness, suicide, self-doubt, the cultivation of the self, love, mentorship, and reconciliation of one’s experiences with a flawed parental figure are all things that have permeated my life. Some of these things, I understand and have a firm grasp on, they feel definitive and their impacts are a tangible output. Some of these things, I still grapple with daily. There is little definition, largely just confusion and sporadic outbursts of pain.

When I return to this film, which I often do, the thing I don’t expect it to give me is answers. I don’t expect the film to be able to define for me what I must come to define for myself. I don’t expect it to clarify my confusion. I don’t expect it to eradicate the pain. I just expect it to be exactly what it is and to be there.

There’s a scene towards the end of this film where, while mourning the loss of his brother, Bobby explains how he heard one of Jackson’s songs performed at a bar. At first, it angers him. He feels like no one really knew Jackson. But then, something shifts and just hearing the song begins to soothe him. It reminds him that, in spite of their trauma and their turmoil, it isn’t all for nothing.

That’s what this film is for me. It soothes me. It reminds me that the facilitation of our healing can come through art. It reminds me that for people, who once felt broken and irreparable, it is possible to find love and happiness not just with another person, but within one’s self. It reminds me that our pain and our devastation can be met in equal measure with (and even maybe be overcome by) our brilliance, our triumph, and our devotion to one another.

What have you noticed with each rewatch? What I notice most with each subsequent rewatch of the film is what a massive undertaking the sound editing and mixing for this film must have been. I have such deep and profound respect and admiration for all the work that went into crafting the audio for this film! The film is such a visceral experience, one that truly engages all of the senses. I remember physically recoiling in the theater the first time I heard the sound of Jackson’s tinnitus. I remember feeling my entire seat shake in time with the music during the concert sequences.

I also have a sincere recommendation! Once you watch the film a few times, I really encourage you to watch the film just through the lens of watching Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real in the background of the pivotal scenes. It adds so much dimension to scenes you thought you already knew!

What is the single greatest scene in this version of A Star Is Born? As clichéd or “basic” as it may seem to say, there is no denying that the greatest scene in this film is when Ally joins Jackson on stage and the two perform Shallow together. It’s a cataclysmic and mesmerizing moment.

It’s the way Jackson physically steps back and acquiesces his spotlight to new talent. It’s the combination of awe and support in Jackson’s eyes as he watches Ally assume center-stage. It’s the way Ally assumes her place at the mic for the first time. It’s how Ally—all at once terrified, shocked, overwhelmed, empowered, and free—finds a version of herself she had long thought impossible to access under the stage lights. The arc of which is punctuated by Gaga’s impeccable performance in this scene, most noticeably by the shift in her physicality, from her hands covering her eyes, unable to make eye contact, to grabbing the mic and belting her now patented cathartic wail.

It’s the way, two artists—no, two people—are separated physically on the stage singing into their individual microphones, but slowly find their way to meet in the middle and sing as one. In itself, this scene is the film in miniature. If this scene hadn’t worked, it’s very unlikely the rest of the film would have worked.

Not to mention, the scene is just absolutely stunning. Of course, the music is heavenly, that’s a given. In terms of the composition, I love how the camera moves around and captures each protagonist in different ways. And the color palette is gorgeous. The way that blue and red light dance around our protagonists throughout the sequence is just jaw-dropping. It’s the kind of high an artist, and in a turn a viewer, could spend their whole life chasing.

What do you wish haters understood about the film’s greatness? My first priority would be to tell the haters that Lady Gaga is not playing herself in A Star Is Born! Just because Gaga is a singer playing a singer, doesn’t mean she isn’t acting!

Furthermore, to me, it feels unfair that the power of her performance is sometimes diminished just because she sings in the film. Anyone can sing in a way that is technically proficient with enough training, but to tell a story through song? To act a song? To perform with every iota of your being musically? That’s a whole other skill and it is just as worthy of recognition and respect as any other leading performance this year.

Secondly, I would like to convey that just because something is a remake doesn’t mean that it lacks value or that it lacks something to say. I can’t pinpoint what exactly it is about this story that seems to capture the collective imagination every few decades, but I think it has something to do with how it presents ascension at the expense of descent, art as both artifice and freedom of authentic expression, and love in spite of sacrifice and self-destruction. There’s something about that cocktail that becomes the perfect receptacle for the expression and examination of our cultural anxieties.

Its malleable formula allows for questions to be asked about how we think about celebrity and fame, the self-identification process, and the value of art. In that sense, a remake of A Star Is Born is vital and refreshing, and certainly not tired and uninspired, and most importantly, it doesn’t lack something to say. It’s inherently reflective of the culture it was created in by its very nature. It allows us to ponder not just how Hollywood tells stories about itself, but also how we tell stories about ourselves. And if you ask me, there’s so much value in that.

What do you think should win Best Picture at this year’s Oscars? Well, I’m clearly biased towards A Star Is Born, but I would not be mad to see Roma or The Favourite walk off with the evening’s top prize!

What do you think will win Best Picture? My heart says Roma, my head says Green Book.

[kachulein]

🌹Soft Bias Tag🌹

tagged by my dear @marculees <3 I know it's been so long sndkslsk I didn't want to rush it so I always delayed it when I felt like I didn't have enough time to do it. ;-;

god,,, do you see him? I'm already soft and in love though I haven't even started yet

1. Who is your bias?

🐹 My bias is none other than the infamous Han Jisung, a.k.a HAN, a.k.a J.ONE, a.k.a Squirrel, a.k.a Hannie💖

2. How long have you biased them?

🐹 Not that long since I always biased Felix but then Jisung burst into the door and biaswrecked me,,,, sooo about ~2 months now

3. What’s their zodiac sign?

🐹Hannie is a Virgo sun, Pisces moon, Libra mercury and venus, and Leo mars. I love how my sun trines his venus and his sun is conjunct my moon (which is referred to as a soulmate-like connection uwu<3).

4. What’s your favorite thing about them?

🐹I love everything about him ngl, even his awkward silence is incredibly adorable and I love his jokes and his aegyo, I seriously don't understand why the other member don't react to him because I definitely can't stay silent uwu. But my favourite thing about him is that he's not just a silly, immature kid who likes to joke and play around but has also a very mature side. I know he might look playful and silly most of the time but there's a depth and dreamieness to him that speaks volumes. He's very thoughtful and considerate and he's always there for you if you need him, like he'll definitely be the first one to approach and comfort you because he's got so much empathy and I just appreciate and love that about him so much because it shows what a wonderful, loving and affectionate person he is.💗

5. Emojis you associate with them?

🐹🐿✌💖💬🍰🍫⛸🌌⏰🌠🎵♍

6. Colors that remind you of them?

🐹Red, Blue, Black, White

7. One gift that you wanna give them?

🐹My unconditional love until the end of time uwu? Hm, I don't really know. I'd want to spoil him with little gifts from me. I'd love to give him either a drawing I made for him or a song I wrote&sang for him. I'd also love to give him something that he could always have with him and that would give him strength and support. So like a little book or something in which I'll write 365 messages, so he can read one each day and I'll write on them reasons why he is a beautiful human being or why I love him so much or just words of appreciation and affection. <3 (If we were to be together, I'd love to make him a photo book with all our memories in it and I'd decorate it with drawings and poems, or I'd also want to make him something that includes writing him love letters uwu)

8. What songs would you listen to with them?

🐹I could write down so many songs right now,,, okay let's see:

Kisum ft. Jooyoung - You&Me (this is THE couple song okay)

Lauv - I Like Me Better (when I'm with you)

Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better, There's Nothing Holding Me Back

JK Kim DongUk - Universe

KREAM - Talking To The Moon

Ed Sheeran - Perfect

Little Mix ft. Charlie Puth - Oops

5 Seconds Of Summer - Valentine, Beside You

Troye Sivan - FOOLS

Hailee Steinfeld ft. Zedd - Starving

MIYAVI - Long Nights

Madilyn Bailey & Jake Coco - I Need Your Love

BANKS - Lovesick

Jane XØ - Undone

One Ok Rock - Heartache

Man With A Mission - Dead End In Tokyo

Blackbear - Idfc

Tim Halperin - Survivor

Wheatus - Teenage Dirtbag

Dexys Midnight Runners - Come On Eileen

Panic! At The Disco - High Hopes

9. Movies you would watch with them?

🐹Anything tbh as long as I could cuddle him. I'd love to watch romance movies with him and he'd need to comfort me when I'm crying and I'd even watch some scary movies with him as long as he protects me and I can hide my face in his chest while he's holding me tightly. But he definitely needs to watch The Notebook and Safe Haven with me<3 (I'm a sucker for Nicholas Sparks)

10. What flowers remind you of them?

🐹 Red Carnations because they symbolize love, pride and admiration and Lavender which also symbolizes admiration. Roses and Cherry blossoms as well but that more because they are my favourite flowers so I always get reminded of him as well.🌹🌸

11. What made you fall for them?

🐹I really don't know anymore. I already found him cute back in Hellevator era but he has never become my bias until this summer. I think it was his personality and his skills/talents,,,,just the whole mixture that is the person who he is, that made me fall for him.💖

12. What dream date would you go on?

🐹I'd love to go to an amusement park with him and cuddle and comfort him when he's afraid of roller coasters (because he's so cute like that uwu) and also go inside the haunted house and see who of us would be more scared. Then we'd go eat dinner somewhere and get back home, do a movie marathon and fall asleep in each other's arms.💖

13. Who would be more clingy?

🐹I think we're both very clingy so I guess it would be about equal. :3

14. One thing you want them to know?

🐹I want him to know that I am so grateful and thankful to him for not having given up. I'm also so thankful towards his parents for always having been supportive of him and his dreams and for telling him it's okay to give up if it gets too hard. I want to tell him how big of an inspiration he is not only to me but to so many people and that he is so loved. I want him to know that what he always wanted - to tell stories and help people through song lyrics - has become reality because their songs/lyrics means so much to me and help me whenever I'm having a hard time. I want to tell him that he is an incredibly talented rapper but that I also really love his singing voice and if he'd sing me to sleep, I'd be the happiest little bean on earth. I want him to know how great and wonderful he is and I'd want to show him affection and give him compliments each day. uwu

15. Who falls asleep first on facetime?

🐹Either him or we'd call for such a long time until both of us fall asleep. (rip my Samsung phone doesn't have facetime though)

16. Place you’d like to go with them?

🐹This might sound cliche but I'd love to show him around my home country Switzerland, idk. I love my country and I'm also proud to be Swiss because there's so many beautiful places here and I'd love to show them to him. I'd also love to visit his home of course and travel through South Korea with him. And a trip to Hawaii would be awesome as well.❤

I'm tagging @http-jinnie @jenoscity @hyunjinsgiggle @camcamlovesbangchan @taetarte @blossomjisung @1oonar @spookyuwus @allymemes19 @orrin-uwu @agustdnd @minniemango @donghyuwus and everyone else who wants to do this~

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Greetings, colleagues! For your consideration today: Do Democrats need to win the special election for Alabama’s Senate seat in order to have a chance to win control of the chamber in 2018?

Implicit in that question, obviously, is: Can Democrats win the Senate in 2018?

So let’s start off with this, from friend-of-the-site Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics:

I would buy the bejeezus out of "Democrats to take the Senate" right now if I were involved in the market.s

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) November 10, 2017

He says he would buy Democrats to win the Senate at 30 percent. And that it would be 50-50 if Democrat Doug Jones wins in Alabama.

Would people buy at 30 right now?

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Yes. While I don’t think it’s a sure thing by any means, this environment is a lot friendlier for Democrats than Republicans.

harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): Ohhh boy. I tell ya. This is where a formal model would really help. Here’s what we know: Incumbent senators of the opposition party (the party that doesn’t control the White House) rarely lose in midterms, and Democrats have two clear pickup opportunities in addition to Alabama (Arizona and Nevada). They need a net gain of three seats to get the majority, so the math is there. Of course, the Democrats are defending seats on some very red turf, including in Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia, to name just a few.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Answer the question, dude.

micah: You answer it, Nate!

natesilver: A-N-S-W-E-R. T-H-E. Q-U-E-S-T-I-O-N. H-A-R-R-Y.

micah: Clare is the only brave one here.

natesilver: I’d hold at 30.

micah:

harry: Holdin’ Nate.

micah: HARRY!

natesilver: HARRY WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

harry: Fine. Fine. I’ll sell at 30 percent and buy at 25 percent.

micah:

natesilver: Oh, give me a break.

micah: You’re holding, in other words.

natesilver: You’re like, “We don’t have a formal model, blah blah blah,” and then you’re parsing the difference between 25 and 30 percent.

micah: Clare, why would you buy?

And how contingent is your buy on Jones winning in Alabama?

Like, if I told you that Republican Roy Moore is going to win, would you sell at 30 percent?

natesilver: I’d just point out that if Moore wins, he’d probably get expelled, which would compel another special election.

clare.malone: As I said above, before all the bullshit equivocating, I think the Alabama thing, if it happens for Democrats, could really build some momentum.

Would I sell?

No.

micah: My prediction: Moore wins, he gets expelled. He runs again in the new special election and wins.

natesilver: Then gets expelled again?

micah: No.

I’m not convinced Republicans would even expel him to begin with.

clare.malone: It feels a bit like an intimidation tactic right now.

micah: Yeah.

natesilver: Moore would be a huge problem for Republicans if he stays in office. He’s not going to be cooperative at all with the GOP leadership. And he’s basically every liberal’s worst stereotype of a Republican, which isn’t great for the GOP brand. I think the expulsion threat is pretty real.

harry: Read up on your Powell vs. McCormack. Adam Clayton Powell was expelled by the House of Representatives, then elected again and seated.

micah: But here’s my argument for buying Democrats at 30 percent: They basically need one seat in addition to Arizona and Nevada. They might get that in a month. And even if they don’t, if it’s a super Democratic-leaning year, as we think it will be, I’d bet Democrats in red states will be mostly safe.

Moreover! I think people think too narrowly about what states could be in play.

Like, if Democrats have a +10 advantage on the generic ballot and it’s an anti-incumbent year, who’s to say Ted Cruz won’t be in trouble in Texas?

A VA gov '17 turnout and support pattern would bring Texas to the edge of true competitiveness https://t.co/YFDrPXMljB

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 10, 2017

clare.malone: Welcome to Team Buy, Micah.

micah: TEAM BUY!

Defend yourselves, Team Sell!

natesilver: I’d buy at 30 percent on Democrats winning three or more seats. But they also have a lot of their own seats to defend.

I’m not Team Sell, by the way, I’m Team Hold.

micah: You’re Team Sell, Nate.

natesilver: I’m Team Hold, Micah.

clare.malone: The coward’s choice.

micah: You’re Team

harry: I mean, it’s pretty simple why you wouldn’t buy. Other than Arizona and Nevada, the most Democratic-leaning seat that’s up in 2018 and has a Republican incumbent is Texas. Beyond that, where can Democrats pick up a seat? There aren’t good choices. Maybe they have a shot in Tennessee if the Republicans nominate an archconservative and Phil Bredesen, the former governor, wins the Democratic nomination.

natesilver: Given that there are approximately 6 jillion Democratic seats up for re-election and only a few Republican ones, I think Democrats having a 30 percent chance of taking the Senate is pretty good.

harry: What Nathaniel Read just said.

natesilver: The fact that it’s as high as 30 percent indicates that things are going pretty bad for Republicans.

micah: The Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race as more solidly Republican than the one in Tennessee.

natesilver: So, traditionally people place a lot of weight on incumbency. Tennessee is an open seat, and Texas isn’t.

I think that incumbency is maybe a little overrated. The incumbency advantage has been dwindling. (We’ll have an article on this soon.)

micah: What if Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch retires, then Mitt Romney wins in Utah and caucuses with Democrats?

clare.malone: He won’t caucus with Democrats.

harry: What if my mother’s dog starts talking, Micah?

micah: So, Nate, you basically think Democrats need Alabama?

natesilver: No, I don’t. I think Texas is plausible-ish. And I think a second Arizona seat could open up for obvious reasons.

clare.malone: OK, what are seats that Democrats hold that we think they are in danger of losing?

Missouri.

micah: Indiana.

West Virginia.

I mean, here are the Cook ratings on Democratic-held seats:

clare.malone: Yeah, I mean … they could DEFINITELY get cut up in some of those.

natesilver: I think Missouri and, to a slightly lesser extent, Indiana are the biggest problems for Democrats.

The reason being that Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly had the benefit of running against really poor opponents last time.

clare.malone: Yeah. “Legitimate rape.”

micah: Joe Manchin may have enough of his own brand in West Virginia to be in OK shape. Right?

natesilver: Manchin is still fairly popular there, yeah.

clare.malone: But there’s also the fact that Team Trump could go all out and pool support against Manchin in that state if they wanted.

harry: I wouldn’t discount Florida myself, given that Rick Scott could spend more money than most Americans dream of seeing in a lifetime.

natesilver: Yeah, Florida — you could see Bill Nelson blowing that race, somehow.

Or Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

And to the point earlier about the incumbency advantage diminishing — that could hurt “generic” Democratic incumbents like McCaskill who don’t have their own brands carved out.

micah: I don’t really buy Florida. If it’s a really Democratic-leaning year, why would they lose Florida?

Ohio is more believable. But I think even that would go blue in a blue-wave year.

clare.malone: The Republican candidate in Ohio (Josh Mandel) is … not super likeable. But who knows.

harry: Democrats in Florida are heavily dependent on a Latino vote that may not show up for a midterm.

natesilver: Democrats probably wouldn’t lose Florida, Micah. And it’s true that all of these outcomes are correlated. But sometimes individual races deviate from the trend, like when Democrats won by a huge margin in Michigan in 2014 despite having a really bad year everywhere else.

New Jersey is also a trouble spot for Democrats with the Bob Menendez trial.

clare.malone: Yeah, Menendez is very unpopular there.

natesilver: He’d probably lose a primary challenge — New Jersey Democrats tend to be fairly pragmatic — but it’s a wild card.

harry: My guess is New Jersey ain’t gonna happen for Republicans. It has a powerful state party that will get Menendez to lose the primary or step aside if necessary.

natesilver: So maybe there’s a 50 percent chance that Democrats win 3+ seats, but some of those times, they also lose one or more seats of their own. Which puts us at 30 or so.

If I were actually betting on this stuff, I’d also want to know how the contracts handle post-election party switches.

If Maine Sen. Collins switched parties, for instance, I think it would be right after the midterm and not before.

Sorta like Jim Jeffords or Arlen Specter after the 2000 and 2008 presidential elections.

clare.malone: Do we think Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski would switch parties post-midterm? Or caucus with the Democrats?

micah: That would be exciting!

harry: And to think, in 2011, I believed that politics had become boring and predictable.

natesilver: Collins is more likely, just because she’s more out of step with the Maine GOP, which is getting more like Gov. LePage.

clare.malone: Yeah, that’s true.

We’re just considering WILD CARDS!

natesilver: But if the Senate balance is 50-50 after the election — and let’s say the Republicans have really gotten slaughtered in the House, so the mood of the country is pretty clear — it becomes very tempting to switch if you’re a pivotal Republican senator. You arguably have more power that way (although you have a lot of power either way).

micah: OK, so party-switching and wild cards aside, does your read on Democrats’ Senate chances basically come down to how you think red-state Democrats will fare?

harry: I think that’s right.

natesilver: I mean, it also comes down to Alabama, where I’m slightly more skeptical of Jones’s chances than the consensus.

And it comes down to where you come down on Arizona and Nevada, on the spectrum between “toss-up” and “leans Democrat.”

I think both are leans Democrat, for what it’s worth.

micah: So, my read, to take just one example, is that Harry and Nate are looking at these races like gubernatorial races, which tend to be more about state-level concerns. But we know Senate races tend to be more nationalized, and the odds are that Trump is going to be super unpopular in 2018, perhaps with a much-ramped-up Russia investigation.

clare.malone: I’d agree with that.

micah: Why wouldn’t we expect the to hit the Senate?

natesilver: Even if you have a wave, Democrats might only gain two seats.

That’s the point.

In a non-wave year, they might lose six seats.

So the wave is what takes them from -6 to +2.

It’s a realllllllllyyyyyyy bad map for Democrats

micah: That seems circular to me.

natesilver: OMG

harry: I’ll just drop this in here.

micah: “Democrats will have a really hard time winning races, so they won’t win many races.”

OK, so let’s go back to Alabama …

harry: I love Alabama.

micah: Imagine it’s Dec. 13, and Doug Jones is the senator-elect from Alabama. I give you even odds that Democrats take the Senate back in 2018. Buy, sell or hold?

And remember, if you hold, you suck.

clare.malone: I’m holding and then selling once all the suckers in the betting markets get amped.

micah: That’s the right answer.

natesilver: 50 percent seems in the right range to me, if Jones wins.

harry: Apparently, you suck.

natesilver: Apparently. But it’s actually pretty hard to estimate this stuff without a model

because of how the outcomes are correlated, etc.

micah: We should build a model.

natesilver: Too soon.

harry: We should build a motel.

clare.malone: OK. Let’s cut through the crap: Do you guys think Jones is going to pull this out?

micah: Yes.

natesilver: If there’s no write-in bid, then I think Moore is still the favorite.

harry: Wait. That’s trash. Do you think there will be a write-in bid?

natesilver: Well, I have a whole freaking article about that, which I’m filing to Micah.

Basically, I think all the other outcomes are so bad that it doesn’t hurt the GOP to try a write-in bid, even though it probably helps Jones.

harry: For those wondering, PredictIt has Jones shares selling at 42 cents, as I’m writing this. Moore is at 41 cents, Luther Strange at 6 cents, Mo Brooks at 2 cents and Trip Pittman at 1 cent.

So the conventional wisdom seems to be that Moore won’t win?

micah: Final question: Does the outcome in Alabama matter solely in terms of the seat math? Or would a Jones win tell us something about the political environment? Or would it have more nuts-and-bolts consequences?

harry: Moore would win this race if the environment was neutral to pro-Republican.

clare.malone: I think a Jones win — which might be dependent, as Nate said, on McConnell and national Republicans trying to screw over Moore — would be yet another little battle in the “establishment vs. Bannonites” or whatever we’re calling that emerging wing of the party.

The wing that now makes the tea party look moderate in tone.

natesilver: Right. It would tell us a little something. But, again, mostly it would tell us things that are consistent with what we already know. And people are liable to over-interpret the difference between, say, a 3-point Moore win and a 3-point Jones win — both of which would count as a really bad performance for Republicans, but either of which could sort of be blamed on Moore also.

So basically I think the actual consequences of the Alabama race are larger than the predictive info it contains. In contrast to, say, the Georgia 6th or something.

harry: Right, I think Jones winning is both a sign of the environment and of candidate quality. But yeah, one Senate seat is worth a whole lot when the majority party is at 52 seats.

[snail-of-prey]

Fellow Tennesseans...

Please note that Senator Corker is on this list.

From Jimmy Camp, a long-time Republican consultant:

"My Dear Friends on the Left,

There are many things we disagree on however, one thing we can agree on is that Donald Trump needs to be stopped.

I appreciate your passion and intensity that you have shown in your marches and protests and your social media activities exposing areas where you disagree with Trump. It is important for you to solidify support among your peeps.

But you can not stop Trump without the help of Republicans in the house and senate. In order to cripple Trump you need to divide his base of support and that begins with elected representatives. Following is a list of republican Senators and Congressional members that have come out with statements this weekend in opposition to Trump's immigration order.

I understand that these are probably people you strongly disagree with on many major issues but, you need to call their offices and tell them you are a democrat and that you support their opposition to the immigration order. The more phone calls they get in support, the more likely they are to continue their opposition not only on this but in other areas.

Please CUT and PASTE!!! These people need to hear from us all!! Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.): 202-225-6411 Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.): 202-225-3831 Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA): 202-225-5816 Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY): 202-225-4611 Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA): 202-225-4276 Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL): 202-225-3931 Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL): 202-225-2778 Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA): 202-225-5136 Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.): (202) 224-4224 Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME): (202) 224-2523 Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.): (202) 224-4521 Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz): (202) 224-2235 Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): (202) 224-5972 Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) (202) 224-3353 Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) (202) 224-5251 Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN): (202) 224-3344"

More tips on calls/meetings (vs emails or petitions):

Some tips for people who want to effectively resist the Trump regime right now: --> You should NOT be bothering with online petitions or emailing. In-person encounters and calls are what all the congresspeople pay attention to.

1. The best thing you can do to be heard and get your congressperson to pay attention is to have face-to-face time. 2. Next best thing: calling. You should make 6 calls a day: 2 each (DC office and your local office) to your 2 Senators & your 1 Representative. Every day, the Senior Staff and the Senator get a report of the 3 most-called-about topics for that day at each of their offices (in DC and local offices). They're also sorted by zip code and area code. Republican callers generally outnumber Democrat callers 4-1. In the last 8 years, Republicans have called, and Democrats haven't. So, when you call: A) When calling the DC office, ask for the Staff member in charge of whatever you're calling about ("Hi, I'd like to speak with the staffer in charge of Healthcare, please"). If you don't have one, that's ok - ask for their name, and then just keep talking to whoever answered the phone. Don't leave a message if you can avoid it. B) Give them your zip code. They won't always ask for it, but make sure you give it to them, so they can mark it down. Extra points if you live in a zip code that traditionally votes for them, since they'll want to make sure they get/keep your vote. C) If you can make it personal, make it personal. D) Pick 1-2 specific things per day to focus on. Don't go down a whole list - ideally something that will be voted on/taken up in the next few days. E) Be clear on what you want - i.e. "I'm disappointed that the Senator..." or "I want to thank the Senator for their vote on..." F) It doesn't matter if they get sick of you; the people answering the phones generally turn over every 6 weeks anyway.

If you hate being on the phone & feel awkward, there are a bunch of scripts you can use. After a few days of calling, it starts to feel a lot more natural.

[thisdaynews]

The Worst Political Predictions of 2019

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/the-worst-political-predictions-of-2019/

The Worst Political Predictions of 2019

How wide was the gulf between what actually happened in 2019 and the paths imagined by our pundits and politicians? Drawing from scores of op-eds, tweets, news stories and other first drafts of not-yet-history, here’s POLITICO Magazine’s sixth annual Worst Predictions list.

17. “By the end of 2019, the president of the United States will be Nancy Pelosi”

Predicted by: Stephen Kinzer,Boston Globe

Even as Pelosi flexed her power this year—deftly navigating impeachment with limited public blowback against Democrats (at least so far)—she remains third in line for the Oval Office, no closer to becoming president than she was at the start of 2019.

16. “The Syria withdrawal probably won’t happen in anything more than a cosmetic sense”

Predicted by: Damir Marusic,The American Interest

The U.S. withdrawal from Syria in 2019—allowing Turkey to decimate the Kurdish population and Russia to make major advances in the country, including taking over American military installations—marked a more than cosmetic change in Middle East policy.

15. Trump will “resign from office before he can be impeached, citing health reasons”

Predicted by: Jon Cooper

Cooper, a Democratic fundraiser and prominent #resistance Twitter personality, is prone to outlandish statements that rack up retweets from his fellow partisans. A particular subgenre of this type of tweet is calling for the resignation of Republican officeholders (retweet if you agree!) and then predicting that they will resign. With Trump, Cooper has done both, repeatedly calling for his resignation and predicting that the resignation is coming soon.

14. “Beto O’Rourke will be the next president of the United States”

Predicted by: Lee Drutman (several times) and a great many others

For a time in late 2018 and early 2019, it plausibly looked like Beto O’Rourke was the future of the Democratic Party. CNN’s S.E. Cupp, James Gagliano, Joey Jackson, Scott Jennings, Roxanne Jones, Peniel Joseph, Jen Psaki and Alice Sewart each predicted that he would be leading the polls of Democratic presidential candidates at the end of this year. Less than eight months later, O’Rourke dropped out of the presidential race altogether.

13. Joe Biden won’t run for president

Predicted by: Ari Fleischer

Biden entered the Democratic primary in April, and he has consistently led national polls since.

12. House Democrats and Senate Republicans will “secure a number of legislative victories … [and] meet on middle ground”

Predicted by: Orrin Hatch

At the start of 2019, with a new Democratic majority in the House and the Republicans firmly in control of the Senate, retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch saw the possibility of bipartisan compromise on the horizon. The actual story of Congress this year was not one of meeting “on middle ground,” but of party-line triumphs—House Democrats impeaching Trump, and Senate Republicans installing ever more conservatives into the federal judiciary. It’s become so routine for legislation that passed in the House to get held up in the Senate that Pelosi herself has dubbed McConnell’s chamber “the graveyard.” Bipartisan successes? There were very few.

11. Mueller will “exonerate Trump,” “implicate the Deep State” and “forever legitimize his presidency”

Predicted by: Bill Mitchell (here, too)

Not only did special counsel Robert Mueller not exonerate Trump, he said, “If we had had confidence that the president clearly did not commit a crime, we would have said so.”

10. Kamala Harris will win the Democratic presidential nomination

Predicted by: Myra Adams

This wasn’t implausible when it was predicted in January, during Harris’ highly regarded presidential campaign rollout, but the California senator didn’t even make it to the end of 2019 as a candidate, dropping out of the race on Dec. 3.

9. “Buttigieg will drop [in the polls] soon, and many of his supporters will migrate to Warren”

Predicted by: Noah Smith, June 25, 2019

Leading the fourth-largest city in Indiana hasn’t historically been a launching pad for the Oval Office, but in late December, Pete Buttigieg remains at or near the top of the Democratic pack in Iowa and New Hampshire.

8. Trump will nominate Jared Kushner for attorney general

Predicted by: Carl P. Leubsdorf,Dallas Morning News, Dec. 27, 2018

When Trump went about finding a successor for Attorney General Jeff Sessions, he could have chosen Kushner, a graduate of NYU Law whose legal experience largely consists of two internships. Instead, Trump chose former Attorney General Bill Barr.

7. House Democrats will not impeach Trump

Predicted by (among others): Peter Daou, Kai Ryssdal and Stephen L. Carter

They did.

6. House Dems and the Senate GOP will work together to enact immigration reform

Predicted by: Fortune Magazine

In its annual “Crystal Ball” forecast for the year ahead,Fortuneimagined Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi working together to pass a “farm bill, immigration reform, and an infrastructure bill that President Trump has long wanted to see on his desk.” Immigration reform shows no signs of life, and major investments in infrastructure—despite the ostensible support of both Trump and House Democrats—remain unrealized.

5. Mueller will reveal that Trump’s 2016 campaign received millions of dollars from Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar

Predicted by: Former Rep. John Leboutillier

Leboutillier, a former Republican congressman from New York, began 2019 with an op-ed in theHillthat audaciously predicted, “The Mueller investigation will unveil evidence of Trump putting himself out to the highest bidder in return for campaign help and financing: Russians, Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris—there will be evidence that millions of foreign dollars illegally flowed into the Trump campaign coffers in 2016.” There was no such evidence, Mueller unveiled no such thing, and there is no factual basis upon which to claim that “millions of foreign dollars illegally flowed into the Trump campaign.”

4. In 2019, there will be a “move toward forcing African-Americans to secure 19th century Black Codes-type passes that they must carry in public”

Predicted by: Dr. Ricky L. Jones

It was an alarming, eye-popping prediction from Jones, a professor at the University of Louisville and a contributor to theCourier Journal: “We will see a move toward forcing African-Americans to secure 19th century Black Codes-type passes that they must carry in public. Any white person would be able to demand the blacks in question produce these IDs to prove they have the right to inhabit certain spaces or engage in pre-approved activities in 2019.” Nothing even hazily resembling the prediction has been entertained.

3. British Prime Minister Theresa May “will see out Brexit and then depart on her own terms and timing”

Predicted by: Nick Williams

May announced that she would resign as prime minister in May, after the Brexit plans she negotiated were defeated in Parliament for the third time in as many months. The House of Commons rejected her Brexit plan for a fourth time two days later. She officially stepped down as prime minister in July and was succeeded by Boris Johnson. In December, Johnson won a large parliamentary majority, and, as of this writing, it appears likely that Brexit will finally happen in January 2020, almost four years after British voters first approved the idea.

2. Republicans will break ranks with an increasingly erratic Trump

Predicted by: Patti Solis Doyle

At the end of 2018, Solis Doyle, who managed Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, predicted that “Republicans, who have supported the mayhem and chaos up to now, will be looking down the barrel of a 2020 presidential cycle with abysmal numbers with women, suburban voters and independents. They’re going to break.”

Not a single House Republican supported either of the two articles of impeachment that passed the House in December, and Congressman Justin Amash was drummed out of the Republican Party for suggesting that Trump should be impeached over Mueller’s findings (now an independent, he voted for both articles of impeachment).

1. Alabama will be hit by Hurricane Dorian, never mind what the National Weather Service says

Predicted by: President Donald Trump

In the annals of post-Watergate presidential “scandals,” the “Sharpiegate” brouhaha is among the most bizarre. In advance of the storm making landfall, Trump tweeted that “In addition to Florida – South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated.” There were never any reputable weather maps that had Alabama in the direct path of the storm, and the National Weather Service in Birmingham quickly issued a statement correcting the president.

Rather than admit a mistake, Trump produced a map of the hurricane’s path—and apparently used a marker to draw over the expert forecast and change the path of Dorian’s projected fallout area to include Alabama. The hurricane never did hit the state.

Read More

[marcusssanderson]

80 Fake Friends Quotes and Fake People Sayings for 2019

Looking for fake friends quotes and sayings that will help you weed out the wrong people from your life?

Humans possess the inherent ability to network and seek out their tribe.

Whether it’s through work, school, or just everyday activities, friendships are bound to develop.

Although friends are usually the ones who we grow with and add joy to our lives, through time, friendships can dissolve because of underlying unfavorable qualities or differences.

Whether it’s at work or in a social group, we all have to deal with fake friends at some points in our lives.

If you’re in a friendship where you do not feel your needs are fully supported or acknowledged, maybe it’s time to gracefully end the relationship.

If you find yourself in this situation, use these fake friends quotes to restore faith in yourself and your ability to attract positive relationships.

Fake friends quotes to help you cherish the real ones

1.) “Learn to use the criticism as fuel and you will never run out of energy.” – Orrin Woodward

2.) “The only thing more frustrating than slanderers is those foolish enough to listen to them.” – Chris Jammi

3.) “Someone who smiles too much with you can sometimes frown too much with you at your back.” – Michael Bassey Johnson

4.) “Fake friends are like shadows: always near you at your brightest moments, but nowhere to be seen at your darkest hour. True friends are like stars, you don’t always see them but they are always there.” – Habeeb Akande

5.) “Fear of something is at the root of hate for others, and hate within will eventually destroy the hater.” George Washington Carver

6.) “Hatred imprisons the haters; love opens doors.” – Debasish Mridha

7.) “Controllers, abusers, and manipulative people don’t question themselves. They don’t ask themselves if the problem is them…they always say the problem is someone else.” – Darlene Quimet

8.) “Friendship is delicate as a glass, once broken it can be fixed but there will always be cracks.” – Waqar Ahmed

  9.) “Knowledge planted in truth grows in truth. Strength born of peace loses nothing to hate.” – Aberjhani

10.) “The strong-minded rise to the challenge of their goals and dreams. The weak-minded become haters.” – Steve Maraboli

Quotes about fake friends and moving on

11.) “Friends ask you questions; enemies question you.” – Criss Jami

12.) “Buy a gift for a dog and you will be amazed at the way it will dance and swerve its tail, but if you don’t have anything to offer it, it won’t even recognize your arrival; such are the attributes of fake friends.” – Michael Bassey Johnson

13.) “Letting go of toxic people in your life is a big step in loving yourself.” – Hussein Nishah

14.) “People only throw shade on what’s shining.” ― Genereux Philip

15.) “Mindset matters…always. The difference found between the victorious and the envious, the successful and the haters; is mindset.” ― Steve Maraboli

16.) “You create more space in your life when you turn your excess baggage to garbage.” – Chinonye J. Chudolue

17.) “A true friend never gets in your way unless you happen to be going down.” – Arnold H. Glasow

  18.) “Most people want to see you do better, but not doing better than them.” – London Mond

19.) “Just as the unwanted pregnancy, there are unwanted people in your life you should strive to abort, and such abortion is not sin, nor harm, but the eradication of a destructive foetus.” ― Michael Bassey Johnson

  20.) “Some people think that the truth can be hidden with a little cover-up and decoration. But as time goes by, what is true is revealed, and what is fake fades away.” – Ismail Haniyeh

Fake friends quotes on how to deal with them

21.) “False friendship, like the ivy, decays and ruins the walls it embraces; but true friendship gives new life and animation to the object it supports.” – Richard Burton

22.) “We never lose friends. We simply learn who the real ones are.” – Unknown

23.) “An insincere and evil friend is more to be feared than a wild beast; a wild beast may wound your body, but an evil friend will wound your mind.” – Buddha

  24.) “Before you count your friends, make sure you can count on them. Some friends are only around when they want something from you but are never there when you need something from them.” – Rashida Rowe

25.) “A friend who stands with you in pressure is more valuable than a hundred ones who stand with you in pleasure.” – Edward G. Bulwer-Lytton

  26.) “Time passes and you begin to see, people for who they really are and not who they pretend to be.” – Scarlet Koop

27.) “There is nothing I would not do for those who are really my friends. I have no notion of loving people by halves, it is not my nature.” ― Jane Austen

28.) “Not all toxic people are cruel and uncaring. Some of them love us dearly. Many of them have good intentions. Most are toxic to our being simply because…they aren’t inherently bad people, but they aren’t the right people for us. And as hard as it is, we have to let them go.”  –  Daniell Koepke

29.) “It makes no sense to try to extend a friendship that was only meant to be a season into a lifetime.” – Mandy Hale

30.) “Fake friends are like shadows. They follow you in the sun but leave you in the dark.”

Fake friends quotes for those who betrayed you

31.) “If it comes, let it come. If it goes, it’s ok, let it go. Let things come and go. Stay calm, don’t let anything disturb your peace, and carry on.” ― Germany Kent

32.) “Stay true to yourself. An original is worth more than a copy.” – Suzy Kassem

  33.) “A lot of problems in the world would disappear if we talk to each other instead of about each other.” – Unknown

  34.) “Better an honest enemy than a false friend.” – German Proverb

35.) “Some people aren’t loyal to you. They are loyal to their need of you. Once their needs change, so does their loyalty.” – Unknown

36.) “Trolls and haters are only distractions from your greater purpose. When you achieve your goals and success, not only will the trolls and haters be forgotten, but they will definitely be looked upon as the biggest fools.” – Kaitlin Gow

37.) “You got nothing to lose. You don’t lose when you lose fake friends.” – Joan Jett

38.) “If people are hating on you it’s often because they are: 1. Threatened by you, 2. Jealous of you or 3. Feeling like you’re above them so they put you down to feel better about themselves. The greatest people have haters for a reason, so take it as a compliment.” ― Jeanette Coron

  39.) “Sometimes it’s not the person who changes, it’s the mask that falls off.” – Mhaj Porras

40.) “True friendship can afford true knowledge. It does not depend on darkness and ignorance.” – Henry David Thoreau

  Fake friends quotes and fake people quotes to help you manage

41.) “A friendship that can cease has never been real.”  – St. Jerome

42.) “I got my own back.” – Maya Angelou

43.) “Some people are going to leave, but that’s not the end your story. That’s the end of their part in your story.” – Unknown

44.) “We teach people how to treat us.” – Dr. Phil

45.) “Fire false friends as early as possible. Do it before they dig out the dream seeds you’ve planted. The earlier, the better; the quicker, the safer.” – Israelmore Ayivor

46.) “Fake friends believe in rumors. Real friends believe in you.” – Unknown

47.) “Lovers have a right to betray you, friends don’t.”  – Judy Holliday

  48.) “One of the biggest flaws of people is pretending to be blind to their own mistakes, but do not pretend deaf towards the mistakes of others.” – Unknown

49.) “At some point you have to realize that some people can stay in your heart but not in your life.” – Sandi Lynn

  50.) “No person is your friend who demands your silence, or denies your right to grow.” – Alice Walker

Fake friends quotes about people and their lies

51.) “Life is all about losing friends, the people you know. So, just that you get better at finding the ones worth suffering for.” ― Mohit Kaushik

52.) “We never lose friends, fake ones are exposed.” ― Carlos Wallace

53.) “Being too nice is a crime today.Fake friends are every where around you. they will use you and when you are of no use, throw you away like a wrapper .” ― Shizra

54.) “Always be careful of your friend who loves your enemy; you either trust such a fellow for your life or for your death!” ― Ernest Agyemang Yeboah

55.) “Fake friends are with you today and against you tomorrow.whatever they say defines them not you .” ― Shizra

56.) “Nobody wants to know how you feel, yet, they want you to do what they feel.” ― Michael Bassey Johnson

57.) “Some friends are like pennies, two-faced and worthless.” – Unknown

58.) False friendship, like the ivy, decays and ruins the walls it embraces; but true friendship gives new life and animation to the object it supports. – Richard Burton

59.) “An honest enemy is better than a best friend who lies.” – Vandi Tanko

60.) “Be very careful of who you share your problem with, remember that not every friend that smiles at you is your best friend.” – Kemmy Nola

Fake friends quotes to help you treasure the true ones

61.) “You never lose Friends. Real ones will always stay – no matter what and the fakes, you don’t need anyways.” ― Drishti Bablani

62.) “Some people are willing to betray years of friendship just to get a little bit of the spotlight.” – Lauren Conrad

63.) “You should be aware of fake friends because it is the hardest to be aware of.” ― Eraldo Banovac

64.) “I hate fake people. You know what I’m talking about. Mannequins.” – Jarod Kintz

65.) “Make sure the lions you roll with aren’t snakes in disguise.” – Genereux Philip

66.) “Best friends has 11 letters, but so does Backstabber.” – Wiz Khalifa

67.) “Anyone that hates on you is always below you, because they’re just jealous of what you have.” –  Miley Cyrus

68.) “Don’t fear the enemy that attacks you, but the fake friend that hugs you.” – Unknown

69.) “He who is jealous, is never jealous of what you see, with what is imagined is enough.” – Jacinto Benavente

70.) “A true friend is one who overlooks your failures and tolerates your success!” – Doug Larson

More fake friends quotes and fake friends sayings

71.) “Sometimes the person you’d take a bullet for ends up being behind the gun.” – Tupac

72.) “A genuine enemy is more useful than a fake friend.” ― Mokokoma Mokhonoana

73.) “You always knew after shitty things happened, who your friends really were.” – Jodi Picoult

74.) “What greater wound is there than a false friend?” – Sophocles

75.) “It is only the great hearted who can be true friends. The mean and cowardly, can never know what true friendship means.” – Charles Kingsley

76.) “Eliminate those fake friends who seem real when you have something and disappear when you have nothing.” – Rashida Rowe

77.) “The jealous are troublesome to others, but a torment to themselves.” – William Penn

78.) “The worst part of success is trying to find someone who is happy for you.” – Bette Midler

79.) “Lots of people want to ride with you in the limo, but what you want is someone who will take the bus with you when the limo breaks down.” – Oprah Winfrey

80.) “Being betrayed is one of the most valuable lessons life can teach.” – Shania Twain

Were you able to relate to these fake friends quotes and sayings?

Whether you’re currently dealing with toxic friendships, a fake friend, or even acknowledging natural pruning of social relationships, don’t dwell on the negatives.

Take the time to focus on your own strengths. Do what brings you joy. Live your life with a positive outlook and cherish the true friends who have stayed with you through hard times.

Which of these fake friends quotes resonated with you best? Do you have any other favorite quotes to add to the list? Let us know in the comment section below. We would love to hear all about it.

The post 80 Fake Friends Quotes and Fake People Sayings for 2019 appeared first on Everyday Power.

[antionetterparker]

Life Leadership: Chump change or real money? [Review]

Leadership training should position you for the best opportunities in life…

But there are always exceptions.

Like the five-figure debt a bachelor’s degree can give you—without making it easier to get a great job—some opportunities look better on paper than they do in real life.

This may be one of those “opportunities.”

Life Leadership is a network marketing company that offers training and mentoring on how to be personally, professionally, and financially successful.

Sounds pretty similar to the likes of World Ventures, but this company has done a few things different.

FAQ

1. What does Life Leadership sell? Life Leadership offers products in three categories—financial, professional, and personal development—each designed to help you improve your personal lifestyle. Their materials include audios, videos, and books, as well as interactive training to help people track their expenses, save money on spending, protect their identity, and more.

2. What are Life Leadership’s most popular products? Their most popular product is Financial Fitness, which is designed to help people struggling with debt and credit problems achieve debt freedom.

3. How much does it cost to join Life Leadership? To join, you’ll need to buy a business starter kit for $99.99.

4. Is Life Leadership a scam? No, Life Leadership is a legitimate company. Their training systems have been recognized by business owners, educators, authors, military leaders, and elected government officials. The creators of their training have been named on the Inc.com Top 50 Leadership and Management Experts list and featured in Networking Times, Success, and Success from Home magazines. The products themselves have also won multiple awards, including Gold ADDY Awards for Design, Living Now Book Awards, eLit Awards, Illumination Book Awards, Axiom Business Book Awards, and Reader��s Legacy Choice Awards. So sure, the business is legit. The real question is whether you’ll make any money at it, and the likelihood for that is pretty low. Keep reading to learn more.

5. What is Life Leadership’s BBB rating? A+

6. How long has Life Leadership been in business? Since 2001

7. What is Life Leadership’s revenue? $9 million as of 2015

8. How many Life Leadership distributors are there? We weren’t able to find any numbers online.

9. What lawsuits have been filed? From 2007 to 2010, Life Leadership (then known as TEAM) fought Quixtar (aka Amway) and lost all three cases. Why? Life Leadership’s founders were formerly top-level Amway distributors and wanted to be released from their no complete clauses. Amway wasn’t having it, and it wasn’t pretty. [1, 2] In 2015, Mark and Raquel Peters sued Life Leadership founders for misrepresenting the business opportunity and stripping them of their income. [3]

10. Comparable companies: ClickFunnels, Usborne Books

Product-wise, this company seems alright. But as far as an income opportunity goes, there are certainly better options out there.

Click here for my #1 recommendation

Either way, here’s the full review on Life Leadership.

Overview

Life Leadership was founded in November 2011 by seven entrepreneurs: Orrin Woodward, Chris Brady, Claude Hamilton, George Guzzardo, Bill Lewis, Dan Hawkins, and Tim Marks.

Life Leadership was started with the following mission:

“…to help people live The Life They’ve Always Wanted by providing world-class, life-changing products and services to our customers and an industry-leading compensation plan to our sales force in the field.”

Pretty vague. Can you tell what they’re selling yet? Probably not.

According to the website, the founders include:

A New York Times bestselling author

A Guinness World Record holder for largest book signing

Two of Inc. Magazine’s Top 50 Leadership and Management Experts

Modern Servant Leader’s Top Leadership Experts

Magazine’s Top 100 Speakers

Top 20 Most Followed Leadership Influencers on Twitter

HR’s Top 100 Blogs for Management and Leadership

Most of the accomplishments listed above seem to come from Orrin Woodward, an author and blogger on everything from leadership and management to financial health and the media. He’s pretty accomplished and seems to be leading the pack.

Woodward got his start with Amway back in the early 90s. He was so successful, he started selling leadership and motivational tools to other distributors at the company. Of course, Amway wasn’t crazy about that, even though (according to Woodward) his tools helped Amway generate an extra $200 million in sales one year.

Either way, he left in 2007 to start his own full-fledged leadership and motivational company called Team. An article in Forbes back in 2008 calls the company “a pyramid on top of a pyramid.” [4]

Eventually, they were hit with a lawsuit from Amway in 2010 that was settled confidentially. In 2011, Life Leadership was born (aka Team was renamed).

How much does Life Leadership cost?

The Business Starter Kit costs $99. In order to stay active, a Member must also purchase a monthly subscription to one of the company’s products.

Products

Life Leadership sells educational products that come in the form of audio CDs, videos, and books. The company also holds over 7,500 live events every year in various locations around the world.

The products are based on the teachings of both Woodward and Brady, and they’re not without their fair share of awards. Aside from the NY Times Bestseller list, they’ve also won a Gold ADDY Award for Design, eLit Awards, Living Now Book Awards, Illumination Book Awards, and Reader’s Legacy Choice Awards.

Life Leadership sells leadership and motivational programs and tools in the following three categories:

Financial Development

Professional Development

Personal Development

Financial Fitness

These are their financial development products. Subscription products range from $11-$22 per month, and includes financial tracking and savings tips as well as tools for building good wealth habits. Master classes charge a one-time fee ranging from $109-$246.99, and they teach students the basics of financial fitness and personal finance.

Corporate Education

These are professional development tools based on the bestselling book Launching a Leadership Revolution by Orrin Woodward and Chris Brady. Subscriptions cost $64.95 for 6 months and include 1 book and 4 audios each month.

Personal Development

Their personal development products come in the form of monthly subscriptions ranging from $11/month to $82.50/month. They teach things like personal growth, the principles of success, the principles of freedom, and spiritual growth (for Christians). They even have personal development products geared toward teens and pre-teens.

Compensation Plan

Life Leadership’s compensation plan offers 19 and ½ ways to make money, which is really just a gimmick. A compensation plan never needs more than 4 or 5, maybe 6 or 7 different ways to make money – after that the plan is just needlessly complicated, probably to distract people from the fact that they’re still not making any money. [2]

If I went into detail on all 16.5 ways to make money with Life Leadership, you’d probably die of boredom before getting to the end. So, I’ll just list out all 19 (and a half) and then discuss the most important.

Retail Sales Commission

Customer Pool Bonus

Cumulative Customer Bonus

Personal Volume Bonus Chart Commissions

Customer Bonus Chart Commissions

Differential Bonus Chart Commissions

Product Scholarship Program

Scholarship Development Bonus

Fun in the Sun Cruise

Balanced Business Bonus

Annual Cash Awards

Leader Bonus

13-16. Various Depth Bonuses

½. The “3 for FREE” Customer Referral Program

Retail Sales Commission is 15% on all personal sales – not very high compared to other popular MLMs like Scentsy, Beachbody, and LegalShield.

The “3 for FREE” program means that if you get three customers subscribing to products that cost as much as or more than your subscription in a month, you get that month for free.

The Customer Pool Bonus is a bonus paid out based on a Member’s total Registered Customer sales in a month, as long as they hit at least 600 PV. This bonus starts at $50.

The Cumulative Customer Bonus is a similar bonus based on Registered Customer sales, but it’s an annual bonus based on a distributor’s sales in an entire calendar year. The bonus ranged from $500 for 5,000 PV in annual sales to $40,000 for 200,000 PV in annual sales. Of course, you have to stick around for a year to get this bonus, and most don’t.

The Differential Bonus Chart Commission is money you make based on the total volume sold by your downline. Exact numbers are not specified.

The Scholarship bonuses (7 & 8) are monthly bonuses ranging from $60-$500 that depend on the size and performance of your team.

The Depth Bonuses (13-16) are rank bonuses that reward distributors for moving up in rank and also reward them for having team members who move up in rank.

Recap

The compensation plan might all sound pretty confusing, and it’s supposed to. But if you look past all the gimmicks and jargon, to the income disclosure statement at the bottom of the compensation plan, it’s pretty clear how much money you can make.

The majority of Life Leadership distributors, about 65%, are making $.07-$82.29 per month. That’s right – 7 cents. Even the high end here is barely making enough to pay off their subscription.

Look, I’ve been involved with network marketing for over ten years so I know what to look for when you consider a new opportunity.

After reviewing 200+ business opportunities and systems out there, here is the one I would recommend:

Click here for my #1 recommendation

via https://mlmcompanies.org/life-leadership/

[mlmcompanies]

Leadership training should position you for the best opportunities in life…

But there are always exceptions.

Like the five-figure debt a bachelor’s degree can give you—without making it easier to get a great job—some opportunities look better on paper than they do in real life.

This may be one of those “opportunities.”

Life Leadership is a network marketing company that offers training and mentoring on how to be personally, professionally, and financially successful.

Sounds pretty similar to the likes of World Ventures, but this company has done a few things different.

FAQ

1. What does Life Leadership sell? Life Leadership offers products in three categories—financial, professional, and personal development—each designed to help you improve your personal lifestyle. Their materials include audios, videos, and books, as well as interactive training to help people track their expenses, save money on spending, protect their identity, and more.

2. What are Life Leadership’s most popular products? Their most popular product is Financial Fitness, which is designed to help people struggling with debt and credit problems achieve debt freedom.

3. How much does it cost to join Life Leadership? To join, you’ll need to buy a business starter kit for $99.99.

4. Is Life Leadership a scam? No, Life Leadership is a legitimate company. Their training systems have been recognized by business owners, educators, authors, military leaders, and elected government officials. The creators of their training have been named on the Inc.com Top 50 Leadership and Management Experts list and featured in Networking Times, Success, and Success from Home magazines. The products themselves have also won multiple awards, including Gold ADDY Awards for Design, Living Now Book Awards, eLit Awards, Illumination Book Awards, Axiom Business Book Awards, and Reader’s Legacy Choice Awards. So sure, the business is legit. The real question is whether you’ll make any money at it, and the likelihood for that is pretty low. Keep reading to learn more.

5. What is Life Leadership’s BBB rating? A+

6. How long has Life Leadership been in business? Since 2001

7. What is Life Leadership’s revenue? $9 million as of 2015

8. How many Life Leadership distributors are there? We weren’t able to find any numbers online.

9. What lawsuits have been filed? From 2007 to 2010, Life Leadership (then known as TEAM) fought Quixtar (aka Amway) and lost all three cases. Why? Life Leadership’s founders were formerly top-level Amway distributors and wanted to be released from their no complete clauses. Amway wasn’t having it, and it wasn’t pretty. [1, 2] In 2015, Mark and Raquel Peters sued Life Leadership founders for misrepresenting the business opportunity and stripping them of their income. [3]

10. Comparable companies: ClickFunnels, Usborne Books

Product-wise, this company seems alright. But as far as an income opportunity goes, there are certainly better options out there.

Click here for my #1 recommendation

Either way, here’s the full review on Life Leadership.

Overview

Life Leadership was founded in November 2011 by seven entrepreneurs: Orrin Woodward, Chris Brady, Claude Hamilton, George Guzzardo, Bill Lewis, Dan Hawkins, and Tim Marks.

Life Leadership was started with the following mission:

“…to help people live The Life They’ve Always Wanted by providing world-class, life-changing products and services to our customers and an industry-leading compensation plan to our sales force in the field.”

Pretty vague. Can you tell what they’re selling yet? Probably not.

According to the website, the founders include:

A New York Times bestselling author

A Guinness World Record holder for largest book signing

Two of Inc. Magazine’s Top 50 Leadership and Management Experts

Modern Servant Leader’s Top Leadership Experts

Magazine’s Top 100 Speakers

Top 20 Most Followed Leadership Influencers on Twitter

HR’s Top 100 Blogs for Management and Leadership

Most of the accomplishments listed above seem to come from Orrin Woodward, an author and blogger on everything from leadership and management to financial health and the media. He’s pretty accomplished and seems to be leading the pack.

Woodward got his start with Amway back in the early 90s. He was so successful, he started selling leadership and motivational tools to other distributors at the company. Of course, Amway wasn’t crazy about that, even though (according to Woodward) his tools helped Amway generate an extra $200 million in sales one year.

Either way, he left in 2007 to start his own full-fledged leadership and motivational company called Team. An article in Forbes back in 2008 calls the company “a pyramid on top of a pyramid.” [4]

Eventually, they were hit with a lawsuit from Amway in 2010 that was settled confidentially. In 2011, Life Leadership was born (aka Team was renamed).

How much does Life Leadership cost?

The Business Starter Kit costs $99. In order to stay active, a Member must also purchase a monthly subscription to one of the company’s products.

Products

Life Leadership sells educational products that come in the form of audio CDs, videos, and books. The company also holds over 7,500 live events every year in various locations around the world.

The products are based on the teachings of both Woodward and Brady, and they’re not without their fair share of awards. Aside from the NY Times Bestseller list, they’ve also won a Gold ADDY Award for Design, eLit Awards, Living Now Book Awards, Illumination Book Awards, and Reader’s Legacy Choice Awards.

Life Leadership sells leadership and motivational programs and tools in the following three categories:

Financial Development

Professional Development

Personal Development

Financial Fitness

These are their financial development products. Subscription products range from $11-$22 per month, and includes financial tracking and savings tips as well as tools for building good wealth habits. Master classes charge a one-time fee ranging from $109-$246.99, and they teach students the basics of financial fitness and personal finance.

Corporate Education

These are professional development tools based on the bestselling book Launching a Leadership Revolution by Orrin Woodward and Chris Brady. Subscriptions cost $64.95 for 6 months and include 1 book and 4 audios each month.

Personal Development

Their personal development products come in the form of monthly subscriptions ranging from $11/month to $82.50/month. They teach things like personal growth, the principles of success, the principles of freedom, and spiritual growth (for Christians). They even have personal development products geared toward teens and pre-teens.

Compensation Plan

Life Leadership’s compensation plan offers 19 and ½ ways to make money, which is really just a gimmick. A compensation plan never needs more than 4 or 5, maybe 6 or 7 different ways to make money – after that the plan is just needlessly complicated, probably to distract people from the fact that they’re still not making any money. [2]

If I went into detail on all 16.5 ways to make money with Life Leadership, you’d probably die of boredom before getting to the end. So, I’ll just list out all 19 (and a half) and then discuss the most important.

Retail Sales Commission

Customer Pool Bonus

Cumulative Customer Bonus

Personal Volume Bonus Chart Commissions

Customer Bonus Chart Commissions

Differential Bonus Chart Commissions

Product Scholarship Program

Scholarship Development Bonus

Fun in the Sun Cruise

Balanced Business Bonus

Annual Cash Awards

Leader Bonus

13-16. Various Depth Bonuses

½. The “3 for FREE” Customer Referral Program

Retail Sales Commission is 15% on all personal sales – not very high compared to other popular MLMs like Scentsy, Beachbody, and LegalShield.

The “3 for FREE” program means that if you get three customers subscribing to products that cost as much as or more than your subscription in a month, you get that month for free.

The Customer Pool Bonus is a bonus paid out based on a Member’s total Registered Customer sales in a month, as long as they hit at least 600 PV. This bonus starts at $50.

The Cumulative Customer Bonus is a similar bonus based on Registered Customer sales, but it’s an annual bonus based on a distributor’s sales in an entire calendar year. The bonus ranged from $500 for 5,000 PV in annual sales to $40,000 for 200,000 PV in annual sales. Of course, you have to stick around for a year to get this bonus, and most don’t.

The Differential Bonus Chart Commission is money you make based on the total volume sold by your downline. Exact numbers are not specified.

The Scholarship bonuses (7 & 8) are monthly bonuses ranging from $60-$500 that depend on the size and performance of your team.

The Depth Bonuses (13-16) are rank bonuses that reward distributors for moving up in rank and also reward them for having team members who move up in rank.

Recap

The compensation plan might all sound pretty confusing, and it’s supposed to. But if you look past all the gimmicks and jargon, to the income disclosure statement at the bottom of the compensation plan, it’s pretty clear how much money you can make.

The majority of Life Leadership distributors, about 65%, are making $.07-$82.29 per month. That’s right – 7 cents. Even the high end here is barely making enough to pay off their subscription.

Look, I’ve been involved with network marketing for over ten years so I know what to look for when you consider a new opportunity.

After reviewing 200+ business opportunities and systems out there, here is the one I would recommend:

Click here for my #1 recommendation

[investmart007]

WASHINGTON | The Latest: Oddsmaker sees opportunity, not threat in ruling

New Post has been published on https://is.gd/ekVWMt

WASHINGTON | The Latest: Oddsmaker sees opportunity, not threat in ruling

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Latest on the Supreme Court ruling striking down a federal law that bars gambling on football, basketball, baseball and other sports in most states (all times local): 6:15 p.m. An oddsmaker at one Las Vegas resort sees little chance that betting in other states will siphon business away from Las Vegas. Westgate race and sports book chief Jay Kornegay calls Monday’s U.S. Supreme Court decision allowing sports betting in states an opportunity for which sports books have been preparing for a long time. Kornegay says tourists don’t just come to Las Vegas to wager at the sports book. They also visit restaurants, casino tables, stores, pool venues, theaters and nightclubs. Kornegay predicts crowd will still come for big events like the NCAA basketball March Madness tournament, the NFL Super Bowl, boxing and mixed martial arts fights, and the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup horse races. He says people who are introduced to legal gambling in their home states might then want to visit Las Vegas. ____ 5:50 p.m. Casino operator MGM Resorts International does not expect the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on sports betting to have a negative impact on the Las Vegas market. CEO Jim Murren tells The Associated Press the company has polled customers in focus groups around the U.S. and found that widespread sports betting opportunities will not keep fans from traveling to the nation’s gambling mecca. Murren says people will want to visit the market leader, which will take them to Las Vegas’ sports books. The Las Vegas-based company operates more than 10 properties there and several more in the U.S. and abroad. Murren says the ruling will increase consumer interest in sports. __ 5:45 p.m. An executive with a company that owns casinos in 18 states and Ontario, Canada, says the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on sports gambling could begin a “land rush” for states to enact sports wagering laws. Penn National Gaming senior vice president Eric Schippers says West Virginia is already at work on regulations to enable sports betting in that state by the start of the NFL season in September. Penn National operates the Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races, about 60 miles west of Washington, D.C. The company also operates the Tropicana resort on the Las Vegas Strip and the M Resort in suburban Henderson, Nevada. __ 4:15 p.m. Longtime sportscaster Brent Musburger says prohibition didn’t work with liquor and prohibition didn’t work for sports betting. The former ESPN announcer now heads a sports betting broadcast called Vegas Stats and Information Network. He’s calling Monday’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling on sports betting in states a healthy thing for sports and the public. Musburger says sports betting and influence scandals are rare, and all that bookmakers in Las Vegas want is integrity and honesty. He says the ruling takes sports betting “out of the underground and makes it mainstream.” ____ 3:50 p.m. Casino giant Caesars Entertainment says you can bet it will expand its sports wagering business to states where it says secure and responsible gambling is legalized. It’s not talking yet about details. Company president and chief executive Mark Frissora says Monday’s ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court could end illegal sports wagering by replacing it with a well-regulated alternative that sports fans can trust. Las Vegas-based Caesars operates 47 casinos in 13 U.S. states and five countries. Frissora says the company will announce its specific approach to adding sports books after regulations evolve from the court ruling. __ 3:45 p.m. New Jersey lawmakers have introduced new legislation that would regulate and tax sports betting, hours after the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize it. A bill sponsored Monday by Democratic state Senate president Steve Sweeney and others would set an 8 percent tax rate for bets made in person at casinos and racetracks, and 12.5 percent on online bets. The state Division of Gaming Enforcement, Casino Control Commission, and state Racing Commission would all be involved in regulating sports bets that would be placed through casinos and racetracks. The bill would presumably supplant one introduced last week that would have paid an “integrity fee” to the sports leagues, in effect giving them a cut of the proceeds from sports betting. ____ 2:40 p.m. The National Council on Problem Gambling says the high court ruling offers the largest potential expansion of gambling in U.S. history, and predicts many more people will develop gambling problems or worsen existing ones unless steps are taken to minimize risks. Marlene Warner, the group’s board president, says any governmental body and sports league that receives money from sports betting revenue should be required to dedicate funds to prevent and treat gambling problems. Earlier Monday, the Supreme Court struck down a federal law that bars gambling on football, basketball, baseball and other sports in most states, giving states the go-ahead to legalize betting on sports. __ 2:35 p.m. The chairman of the Senate Finance Committee says he’ll propose legislation that would establish standards for sports betting that will uphold the integrity of the game, protect consumers and safeguard against underage gambling. Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah says Congress cannot allow uneven enforcement and a patchwork of state laws regarding sports betting result in a “race to the regulatory bottom.” Hatch is reacting after the Supreme Court struck down a law that he helped write in 1992 that forbade state-authorized sports gambling, with some exceptions. It made Nevada the only state where a person could wager on the results of a single game. Hatch says the 1992 law was created to protect the integrity of athletics from corruption. He says the upcoming legislation will have that focus, too. __ 12:55 p.m. The NFL plans to ask Congress “to enact a core regulatory framework for legalized sports betting” following the Supreme Court’s ruling that would allow sports wagers in most states. In its statement, the NFL noted that “Congress has long recognized the potential harms posed by sports betting to the integrity of sporting contests and the public confidence in these events.” The NFL also said it will work closely with teams to ensure that any state proposals “protect our fans and the integrity of our game.” ____ 12:50 p.m. The PGA Tour has restated its support of sports gambling following a Supreme Court ruling that overturned a federal law barring gambling in most states. The tour’s position is similar to the NBA and Major League Baseball on gambling issues and it says it will continue to work with state legislators and regulators. The tour last year established a program that requires players on all six circuits the PGA Tour manages to take part in an online tutorial that, among other things, illustrates some of the far-reaching effects of gambling. “We believe that regulation is the most effective way of ensuring integrity in competition, protecting consumers, engaging fans and generating revenue for government, operators and leagues,” the tour said in a statement. ___ 12:45 p.m.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver says the league remains a favorite “of a federal framework that would provide a uniform approach to sports gambling in states that choose to permit it.”

Silver said the league would “remain active” in ongoing discussions with state legislatures in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling. Silver added that “regardless of the particulars of any future sports betting law, the integrity of our game remains our highest priority.” ___ 11:45 a.m.

Major League Baseball has issued a statement saying the Supreme Court ruling will have “profound effects” on the league. It said “our most important priority is protecting the integrity of our games.” MLB said it would continue supporting legislation “that creates air-tight coordination and partnerships between the state, the casino operators and the governing bodies in sports toward that goal.” __ 10:11 a.m.

The Supreme Court has struck down a federal law that bars gambling on football, basketball, baseball and other sports in most states, giving states the go-ahead to legalize betting on sports.

The Supreme Court on Monday struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. The 1992 law barred state-authorized sports gambling with some exceptions. It made Nevada the only state where a person could wager on the results of a single game.

One research firm estimated before the ruling that if the Supreme Court were to strike down the law, 32 states would likely offer sports betting within five years.

The court’s decision came in a case from New Jersey, which has fought for years to legalize gambling on sports at casinos and racetracks in the state.

By Associated Press – published on STL.News by St. Louis Media, LLC(R.A)

[thecoroutfitters]

There are ways to “live” survival and train every single day, even while we commute, work, eat and run errands. Habits determine our default responses when we are on autopilot, which is much of the time, whether we admit it or not.

Setting good habits and weaving situational awareness and emergency response exercises into our daily routines turns preparedness into something that we live every day instead of something we think about from time to time.

Why does it count? Well, it does, because many times having good habits allows you to train your survival skills while staying under the radar.

Here’s how to do it.

3 Second SEAL Test Will Tell You If You’ll Survive A SHTF Situation

Briefly:

Choosing your habits, enables you to live your life. Otherwise, you will get lived by life instead of living life.

Use Visualization and Actualization exercises to reprogram default responses with more effective responses of your own choosing.

Caches enable you to carry less while still having access to more.

Carry only what you need. “Skills trump gear” is misguided. Having both saves lives.

If something doesn’t feel right, it probably isn’t.

Always have an escape plan/exit strategy.

Porter’s Dog

How on earth did a gunfighter like Porter Rockwell live long enough to die of old age? Porter’s secret was his habits.

Orrin Porter Rockwell was known as the best tracker in the western territories.

He was a legendary marksman and worked as a bounty hunter, guide, body guard and law man in the old west.

Porter put a lot of folks in the dirt, and even more behind bars, which made for a lot of enemies.

Tactically, Porter had a lot stacked against him. O.P. Rockwell was every bit as famous or infamous as Wyatt Earp, Bat Masterson or Tom Horn, in his day, and historians say Rockwell killed more men then all three gunfighters combined. Porter is somewhat of a legal anomaly as historical evidence records at least two dozen deaths at his hands, with Rockwell being exonerated in every case.

He frequently traveled alone on the trail to guide parties West or tracking down fugitives. Every young gunslinger wanting to make a name for himself would have been a potential enemy and Porter often found himself outnumbered by much larger war parties or mobs, but he seemed to have faith that as long has he had more bullets than he did enemies, there was little to fear.

Porter also had a wicked Achilles heel. He drank too much.

Porter Rockwell solved his problem with a little white dog, which he carried with him on the back of his horse. The little dog served as a biological alarm system and Porter trained the dog to lick his face to wake him instead of barking.

He also removed the trigger guards from a pair of pistols, which he carried in his coat pockets, so cold fingers would not hang up on the trigger guards and he could train his guns on potential enemies as they parlayed and spoke on the trail. This gave him a decided advantage should the situation take a turn for the worse as they sorted out who was who.

Some say it was a covenant with God that protected Porter. If that was true, maybe God did so by showing Porter a better way to get the drop on his enemies.

Malcom Gladwell argues that Goliath never stood a chance because God showed David a more effective strategy. Using a sling parted with tradition.

Tradition required that David fight the giant in hand to hand combat using a sword. Had he done so, the story surely would have gone very differently. If Gladwell is right about David, I do not reckon that Porter Rockwell’s enemies stood much of a chance either.

Whether or not Porter’s and David’s strategies were divine or secular in origin, you can form tactically-sound habits and weave effective survival strategy into your daily life just like they did.

Rules to Live By

Many Survivalists have a list of rules they refer to as: Rules of Engagement, Battle Order, Code of Conduct or simply “The Rules.” They are collections of strategies and tactics.

Here are some of mine:

1. Play “What if …?”

By the 80’s, research showed that playing “What if …?” was a more effective training technique than many imagined. Playing “What if …?” now encompasses a range of mental training techniques, including “Visualization and Actualization.”

Professional athletes now visualize themselves pitching, batting, shooting baskets and throwing passes, over and over, before they ever lace up their shoes. Put Visualization and Actualization to work to improve your emergency preparedness and situational awareness.

As you go about your day, consider possible threats and visualize effective responses to them. Soon enough, you will have reset some of your default responses with more effective responses of your own choosing.

2. Include Others in Your Training

Whether training in my home, on the range or visualizing a scenario in my mind, before I draw my weapon, I often do something else first … I alert my wife to the threat and step away from her.

I do this before I draw my weapon because I know that the moment I do, I become a bullet magnet. If your pattern of life typically involves others, be sure to include them in your training.

3. Mind Over Mattress

Do not linger in bed. The second that alarm clock goes off, count down, “3, … 2, … 1, … Go!” and get on your feet before you turn it off. Start every day with a small victory to set the tone and set a good habit for emergency response at the same time.

4. Use Checklists

Flashback to bad YouTube video: “I don’t need no pen or paper in the bush. I’m always at 110% whenever I’m in the woods or when it hits the fan.”

While research does show that leisurely strolls in natural settings reduce rumination, emergencies often involve stress, pain, blood loss, hypothermia, dehydration, sleep deprivation and numerous other factors that degrade performance.

If there is ever a time a checklist would make sure you do not forget anything important, it is in an emergency, but you will fight just like you train. If you do not habitually use checklists in training, you will not likely use them in an emergency.

5. Dress for Survival

As you dress for the day, layer for the coldest nighttime temperature as opposed to the daytime temperature because you never know when you spend an unplanned night out. When you buy new clothing, pay attention to the messages it communicates to others.

Keep clothing low key, but functional. Put together a turnout bag to get ready quickly in emergencies without forgetting anything.

6. Be Aware of Your Surroundings

Use Cooper’s Color Codes, or a similar system, to maintain awareness and improve both reaction time and effectiveness.

Do not walk or drive with your eyes glued to a screen! This is what officers on sting operations do when they are trying to look like bait to muggers and carjackers.

Look for things that are out of place. If you see military age males lounging around during the middle of the work day, something probably is not right. Not seeing any women or children around can also be a bad sign.

If something does not feel right, it probably isn’t. Academia sometimes overemphasizes left brain thinking. The right brain is where intuition takes place. It is where you inductive reasoning and synthesis take place. Do not think with half your brain. When you use your whole brain, your chances of survival increase.

7. Carry Only What You Need

I also often hear the space-shuttle door-gun qualified crowd of high-speed, low-drag operators enlightening one and all, preaching the carry of a little less than needed. “It encourages problem solving.” they say.

Coming back down to earth, if you can round up two brain cells to rub together, either you need a piece of kit or you don’t. If you carry one less bullet, trauma dressing, battery or bobby pin than needed, I should not have to tell you exactly how the story ends, and it will not matter how many millions of dollars the government spent training you.

Do learn the skills, but counting on your environment to cough up critical resources precisely when and where you need them contravenes thousands of years of human development. Man has carried survival kits for at least that long.

Carrying less than needed is a fine way to train when you have a safety backup. On game day, it is simply another sorry justification of incompetence.

8. Cache Supplies

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Want to carry less? By caching supplies in AO’s (Areas of Operations) and routes of travel, you can carry less and still have supplies nearby should you need them.

Do you have a cache at work? Near your home, but not on your property? Caches can take many forms. Not all of them are hidden or even need to be, but some of the best hidden caches are hidden in plain sight.

9. Scan Waist and Hands

Master Po might tell you his eyes will betray his actions, but your attacker is going to kill you with his hands or the weapon he is holding, so that is what you need to check.

10. Carry Concealed

Carry concealed and your sidearm and knife are aces in the hole. Carry openly and you might as well wear a t-shirt that says, “Shoot me first.” An openly displayed firearm or knife gives an enemy more information than you should.

11. Carry Survival/Self-Recovery (SSR) Equipment

SSR gear goes in your pockets or on your belt or otherwise strapped to your body, not in your pack which is easily and oft separated from you. Do you carry a pocket SSR kit in your every day carry?

I have carried one for years and it has helped me on countless occasions. The key is keeping the core small enough and modular so that you never have to leave it behind.

12. Always Have an Exit Strategy/Escape Plan

Park so you can exit in as many directions as possible.

When you stop in traffic, stop far enough behind the car in front of you that you can get around him to either side. In most vehicles, if you are fare enough back that you can see the vehicles’ rear tires touching the pavement, you should have enough room.

Take the scenic route and circle buildings before you enter them.

When entering buildings, make a mental note of potential exits are and where cover and concealment exist.

When visiting new areas, study maps, carry a map and compass and learn where key resources, such as friendly consulates, churches and hospitals are located.

13. Urban Setting

To escape from restraints, carry, cache and be able to procure or create restraint escape kit. To escape from rooms, building or vehicles, you need destructive entry/exit tools like:

Pry bar, tool to cut seatbelts with, glass breaker

Bypass tools

Lock picks

There might be other situations when you need to escape, and items you might use to escape, as follows:

Property: footwear

Neighborhood: turnout bag and go bag

City: bug out bag, transportation, money and a safe destination

State: Money

Country: Documents, International travel bag and more money

When you’re a prepper, anything you do is very much connected with your survival goals, while staying under the radar is a must.  Will you be able to do it?

This article has been written by Cache Valley Prepper for Survivopedia.

from Survivopedia Don't forget to visit the store and pick up some gear at The COR Outfitters. How prepared are you for emergencies? #SurvivalFirestarter #SurvivalBugOutBackpack #PrepperSurvivalPack #SHTFGear #SHTFBag

[melindarowens]

Red-state Democrats stay away from GOP tax bill

With Scott Bland

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro’s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day’s most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

Story Continued Below

TAXATION WITHOUT… — “Red-state Democrats stay away from GOP tax bill” by Campaign Pro’s Kevin Robillard: “When Republicans began their push for tax reform earlier this year, they had hopes of wooing multiple Senate Democrats to back their plan: 10 of them faced reelection in states President Trump won, five in states he won by more than 20 points. But those dreams were dashed by the bill’s unpopularity in public polling and the inclusion of measures no Democrat was willing to vote for. None of the Democrats voted for the plan on Friday night. But the GOP still thinks it can make them pay in 2018. … According to a Democrat tracking media buys, Republican groups have spent about $6 million on ads promoting the plan, double the $3 million Democrats have spent attacking it. The state with the most action was Wisconsin. There, the Koch Bros.-backed Freedom Partners Action Fund spent $1.6 million blasting Baldwin for supporting tax increases in the past and not supporting tax reform. Senate Majority PAC responded with its own six-figure buy to defend the Wisconsinite.” Full story.

DAILY ROLL TIDE — “McConnell on Moore: ‘I’m going to let the people of Alabama make the call’” by Robillard: “Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Sunday shifted his tone on allowing Alabama GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore to serve in the Senate if elected. … ‘I’m going to let the people of Alabama make the call,’ McConnell said on ABC’s ‘This Week.’ He said he thought the Senate Ethics Committee would handle the allegations against Moore if he is elected: ‘The ethics committee will have to consider the matters that have been litigated in the campaign should that particular candidate win.'” Full story.

— A CBS poll released Sunday found Moore leading Jones 49 percent to 43 percent. A Washington Post poll released Saturday, however, showed Jones leading Moore 50 percent to 47 percent.

— “Is Roy Moore winning? Don’t ask the pollsters” by Politico’s Steven Shepard: “The reality? No one really has a clue about where things stand with Alabama voters in the Dec. 12 special election. For all the national attention and the millions of dollars spent to win the seat, there’s relatively little public polling in the contest. Only three public surveys in the average have been conducted since the Thanksgiving holiday, and odds are you’ve never heard of two of the three pollsters.” Full story.

SEXUAL HARASSMENT IN CONGRESS — Freshman Democrat Ruben Kihuen accused by former campaign staffer, via BuzzFeed’s Kate Nocera and Tarini Parti: “Samantha, whose last name BuzzFeed News is withholding at her request, began working for Rep. Ruben Kihuen early in his campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy in December 2015 and quit by April 2016. Starting in February of that year, Samantha, who was 25 at the time, said Kihuen, who was then 35 and still competing in the primary race, propositioned her for dates and sex despite her repeated rejections. On two occasions, she says he touched her thighs without consent. … After this story was published, the congressman’s office sent out a new statement adding that he wanted to ‘make it clear that I don’t recall any of the circumstances’ described by Samantha. … DCCC chairman Ben Ray Luján called on Kihuen to resign.” Full story.

— More from POLITICO’s Heather Caygle and Elena Schneider: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer also called on Kihuen to resign. Lucy Flores, a former state legislative colleague and primary rival of Kihuen’s in 2016, said: “Even though he maintained a girlfriend, he was known to be very flirtatious and hands on. I personally witnessed him being grabby with young, attractive women. … I can certainly confirm that was the reputation he maintained [in the state Legislature].” Full story.

— Flores also blistered ex-Sen. Harry Reid and the Culinary Union on Twitter for aiding Kihuen’s rise: “You can thank @SenatorReid and his cronies for making sure the powers including @Culinary226 aligned behind his choice. He’s got a terrible track record of male political mentees, BTW.”

— IN FARENTHOLD’S TX-27 — Potential primary challenger steps forward: “It is a sad day when an elected official uses taxpayer money to settle a claim of sexual harassment,” said Texas Water Development Board Chairman Bech Bruun in a statement, via the Texas Tribune. “I am humbled by the numerous calls I have received today and during the past weeks asking me to run for U.S. Congress to help restore voters’ faith in our national leadership. … I anticipate announcing my intentions next week.” The filing deadline for Texas’ primaries is Dec. 11.

Days until the 2018 election: 336

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

THE PLAYBOOK POWER LIST: 18 TO WATCH IN 2018: The final Playbook Power List of the year highlights 18 politicians, activists and operatives across the country who are poised to make waves in 2018. From the anti-Trump “Resistance” on the left to the far right Bannonite wing trying to remake the GOP, keep an eye on these people over the next 12 months. Click HERE to find out who made the list.

LEADERSHIP CHANGE — Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is poised to take over the chairmanship of the Democratic Governors Association today. Here’s a DGA video hailing the beginning of Inslee’s chairmanship.

GO SOUTHWEST — “Latino Victory Fund endorses in Southwest governor races” by Robillard: “Latino Victory Fund is backing Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico and David Garcia of Arizona in its first gubernatorial endorsements of the cycle. … Garcia and Grisham are the two most prominent Latino candidates for governor in 2018. Garcia is competing with state Sen. Steve Farley for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Gov. Doug Ducey. Grisham is competing with state Sen. Joe Cervantes and businessman Jeff Apodaca, the son of former Gov. Jerry Apodaca. GOP Gov. Susana Martinez is term-limited. If Grisham wins, she would become the first Democratic Latina governor in the history of the United States.” Full story. <<

LEVIN RETIREMENT — “U.S. Rep. Sander Levin will retire from Congress when term ends next year” by The Detroit Free Press’s Kathleen Gray: “After 35 years in Congress, U.S. Rep. Sandy Levin, D-Royal Oak, has decided it’s time for a different adventure. The 86-year-old Democrat will not run for reelection in 2018, but will instead join the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, where he will continue to work on issues that have engrossed him in Congress, such as health care and trade issues. … Levin is leaving after three decades of doing everything from fighting to make sure Social Security isn’t privatized to securing a bailout for the domestic auto industry and overseeing the passage of the Affordable Care Act as the chairman of the powerful tax-writing Ways and Means committee.” Full story.

12-DIMENSIONAL CHESS — “Trump moves to block Romney from the Senate” by POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt: “Donald Trump is going all out to persuade seven-term Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch to seek reelection — a push aimed in no small part at keeping the president’s longtime nemesis, Mitt Romney, out of the Senate. … Trump is slated to ride [to Utah today] with Hatch both ways on Air Force One — a total of roughly nine hours round-trip. After descending from the plane together, the two will meet with Mormon leaders and then head to the state capitol for the signing of the executive order, according to three White House officials. Hatch will introduce Trump, who in turn is expected to lavish praise on the senator. After the order is signed, Hatch is expected to receive the president’s pen.” Full story.

— “Steve Bannon mulls Orrin Hatch endorsement to block Mitt Romney” by The Washington Examiner’s David Drucker: “Steve Bannon is mulling an endorsement of Sen. Orrin Hatch in his bid to keep Mitt Romney out of the Senate, a source close to President Trump’s former chief strategist confirmed on Sunday. Bannon is targeting Republican incumbents in 2018 primaries to undermine support for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. Hatch, a McConnell loyalist and a fixture of Washington and the Republican establishment for more than 40 years, is not Bannon’s ideal choice. … “If Steve had a choice between Orrin Hatch and Mitt Romney, he would pick Hatch 10 times out of 10,” the source close to Bannon told the Washington Examiner.” Full story.

STAFFING UP — “Former White House southeast political director running Tennessee Senate campaign” by Campaign Pro’s Daniel Strauss and Daniel Lippman: “Thomas Midanek, formerly the White House southeast regional political director, has left the Trump administration and joined former Tennessee Rep. Stephen Fincher’s Senate campaign as campaign manager. A source familiar with Midanek’s thinking said he left the White House because he ‘wanted to get back into the campaign world.’ Midanek confirmed the new job but declined to comment further. … Fincher is one of a handful of Republicans running in the Tennessee Republican primary for Sen. Bob Corker‘s Senate seat. His most high profile opponent in the primary is Rep. Marsha Blackburn.” Full story.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “And we’ll swear in whoever’s elected and see where we are at that particular point.” — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell during an interview on “Face the Nation” on Sunday responding to a question about what to do about Roy Moore.

Source link

source https://capitalisthq.com/red-state-democrats-stay-away-from-gop-tax-bill/ from CapitalistHQ http://capitalisthq.blogspot.com/2017/12/red-state-democrats-stay-away-from-gop.html

[everettwilkinson]

Red-state Democrats stay away from GOP tax bill

With Scott Bland

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro’s Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day’s most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

Story Continued Below

TAXATION WITHOUT… — “Red-state Democrats stay away from GOP tax bill” by Campaign Pro’s Kevin Robillard: “When Republicans began their push for tax reform earlier this year, they had hopes of wooing multiple Senate Democrats to back their plan: 10 of them faced reelection in states President Trump won, five in states he won by more than 20 points. But those dreams were dashed by the bill’s unpopularity in public polling and the inclusion of measures no Democrat was willing to vote for. None of the Democrats voted for the plan on Friday night. But the GOP still thinks it can make them pay in 2018. … According to a Democrat tracking media buys, Republican groups have spent about $6 million on ads promoting the plan, double the $3 million Democrats have spent attacking it. The state with the most action was Wisconsin. There, the Koch Bros.-backed Freedom Partners Action Fund spent $1.6 million blasting Baldwin for supporting tax increases in the past and not supporting tax reform. Senate Majority PAC responded with its own six-figure buy to defend the Wisconsinite.” Full story.

DAILY ROLL TIDE — “McConnell on Moore: ‘I’m going to let the people of Alabama make the call’” by Robillard: “Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Sunday shifted his tone on allowing Alabama GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore to serve in the Senate if elected. … ‘I’m going to let the people of Alabama make the call,’ McConnell said on ABC’s ‘This Week.’ He said he thought the Senate Ethics Committee would handle the allegations against Moore if he is elected: ‘The ethics committee will have to consider the matters that have been litigated in the campaign should that particular candidate win.'” Full story.

— A CBS poll released Sunday found Moore leading Jones 49 percent to 43 percent. A Washington Post poll released Saturday, however, showed Jones leading Moore 50 percent to 47 percent.

— “Is Roy Moore winning? Don’t ask the pollsters” by Politico’s Steven Shepard: “The reality? No one really has a clue about where things stand with Alabama voters in the Dec. 12 special election. For all the national attention and the millions of dollars spent to win the seat, there’s relatively little public polling in the contest. Only three public surveys in the average have been conducted since the Thanksgiving holiday, and odds are you’ve never heard of two of the three pollsters.” Full story.

SEXUAL HARASSMENT IN CONGRESS — Freshman Democrat Ruben Kihuen accused by former campaign staffer, via BuzzFeed’s Kate Nocera and Tarini Parti: “Samantha, whose last name BuzzFeed News is withholding at her request, began working for Rep. Ruben Kihuen early in his campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy in December 2015 and quit by April 2016. Starting in February of that year, Samantha, who was 25 at the time, said Kihuen, who was then 35 and still competing in the primary race, propositioned her for dates and sex despite her repeated rejections. On two occasions, she says he touched her thighs without consent. … After this story was published, the congressman’s office sent out a new statement adding that he wanted to ‘make it clear that I don’t recall any of the circumstances’ described by Samantha. … DCCC chairman Ben Ray Luján called on Kihuen to resign.” Full story.

— More from POLITICO’s Heather Caygle and Elena Schneider: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer also called on Kihuen to resign. Lucy Flores, a former state legislative colleague and primary rival of Kihuen’s in 2016, said: “Even though he maintained a girlfriend, he was known to be very flirtatious and hands on. I personally witnessed him being grabby with young, attractive women. … I can certainly confirm that was the reputation he maintained [in the state Legislature].” Full story.

— Flores also blistered ex-Sen. Harry Reid and the Culinary Union on Twitter for aiding Kihuen’s rise: “You can thank @SenatorReid and his cronies for making sure the powers including @Culinary226 aligned behind his choice. He’s got a terrible track record of male political mentees, BTW.”

— IN FARENTHOLD’S TX-27 — Potential primary challenger steps forward: “It is a sad day when an elected official uses taxpayer money to settle a claim of sexual harassment,” said Texas Water Development Board Chairman Bech Bruun in a statement, via the Texas Tribune. “I am humbled by the numerous calls I have received today and during the past weeks asking me to run for U.S. Congress to help restore voters’ faith in our national leadership. … I anticipate announcing my intentions next week.” The filing deadline for Texas’ primaries is Dec. 11.

Days until the 2018 election: 336

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

THE PLAYBOOK POWER LIST: 18 TO WATCH IN 2018: The final Playbook Power List of the year highlights 18 politicians, activists and operatives across the country who are poised to make waves in 2018. From the anti-Trump “Resistance” on the left to the far right Bannonite wing trying to remake the GOP, keep an eye on these people over the next 12 months. Click HERE to find out who made the list.

LEADERSHIP CHANGE — Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is poised to take over the chairmanship of the Democratic Governors Association today. Here’s a DGA video hailing the beginning of Inslee’s chairmanship.

GO SOUTHWEST — “Latino Victory Fund endorses in Southwest governor races” by Robillard: “Latino Victory Fund is backing Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico and David Garcia of Arizona in its first gubernatorial endorsements of the cycle. … Garcia and Grisham are the two most prominent Latino candidates for governor in 2018. Garcia is competing with state Sen. Steve Farley for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Gov. Doug Ducey. Grisham is competing with state Sen. Joe Cervantes and businessman Jeff Apodaca, the son of former Gov. Jerry Apodaca. GOP Gov. Susana Martinez is term-limited. If Grisham wins, she would become the first Democratic Latina governor in the history of the United States.” Full story. <<

LEVIN RETIREMENT — “U.S. Rep. Sander Levin will retire from Congress when term ends next year” by The Detroit Free Press’s Kathleen Gray: “After 35 years in Congress, U.S. Rep. Sandy Levin, D-Royal Oak, has decided it’s time for a different adventure. The 86-year-old Democrat will not run for reelection in 2018, but will instead join the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, where he will continue to work on issues that have engrossed him in Congress, such as health care and trade issues. … Levin is leaving after three decades of doing everything from fighting to make sure Social Security isn’t privatized to securing a bailout for the domestic auto industry and overseeing the passage of the Affordable Care Act as the chairman of the powerful tax-writing Ways and Means committee.” Full story.

12-DIMENSIONAL CHESS — “Trump moves to block Romney from the Senate” by POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt: “Donald Trump is going all out to persuade seven-term Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch to seek reelection — a push aimed in no small part at keeping the president’s longtime nemesis, Mitt Romney, out of the Senate. … Trump is slated to ride [to Utah today] with Hatch both ways on Air Force One — a total of roughly nine hours round-trip. After descending from the plane together, the two will meet with Mormon leaders and then head to the state capitol for the signing of the executive order, according to three White House officials. Hatch will introduce Trump, who in turn is expected to lavish praise on the senator. After the order is signed, Hatch is expected to receive the president’s pen.” Full story.

— “Steve Bannon mulls Orrin Hatch endorsement to block Mitt Romney” by The Washington Examiner’s David Drucker: “Steve Bannon is mulling an endorsement of Sen. Orrin Hatch in his bid to keep Mitt Romney out of the Senate, a source close to President Trump’s former chief strategist confirmed on Sunday. Bannon is targeting Republican incumbents in 2018 primaries to undermine support for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. Hatch, a McConnell loyalist and a fixture of Washington and the Republican establishment for more than 40 years, is not Bannon’s ideal choice. … “If Steve had a choice between Orrin Hatch and Mitt Romney, he would pick Hatch 10 times out of 10,” the source close to Bannon told the Washington Examiner.” Full story.

STAFFING UP — “Former White House southeast political director running Tennessee Senate campaign” by Campaign Pro’s Daniel Strauss and Daniel Lippman: “Thomas Midanek, formerly the White House southeast regional political director, has left the Trump administration and joined former Tennessee Rep. Stephen Fincher’s Senate campaign as campaign manager. A source familiar with Midanek’s thinking said he left the White House because he ‘wanted to get back into the campaign world.’ Midanek confirmed the new job but declined to comment further. … Fincher is one of a handful of Republicans running in the Tennessee Republican primary for Sen. Bob Corker‘s Senate seat. His most high profile opponent in the primary is Rep. Marsha Blackburn.” Full story.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “And we’ll swear in whoever’s elected and see where we are at that particular point.” — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell during an interview on “Face the Nation” on Sunday responding to a question about what to do about Roy Moore.

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from CapitalistHQ.com https://capitalisthq.com/red-state-democrats-stay-away-from-gop-tax-bill/