#A WHOPPING 29 DAYS AGO....

[eaglesnick]

Takers are self-serving in their interactions. It's all about what can you do for me” -  Adam Grant

The hypocrisy of Keir Starmer just grows and grows.

When in opposition Starmer said this of a pay rise awarded to Dominic Cummings  by Boris Johnson.

"£40,000 per year pay rise for Dominic Cummings. £3.50 per week for NHS nurses. The mask has slipped." (Keir Starmer: Twitter; 05/05 21)

Indeed the mask has slipped. Keir Starmer, while axing the winter fuel allowance for pensioners has awarded Sue Gray, his chief of staff, a whopping £170,000 salary. Starmer is in effect rewriting the rules on staff pay leading one commentator to say:

“It speaks to the dysfunctional way No 10 is being run – no political judgment, an increasingly grand Sue who considers herself to be the deputy prime minister, hence the salary, and no other voice for the Prime Minister to hear as everything gets run through Sue.”  (Quoted in The Telegraph, 18/09/240

Ms Gray has been accused of blocking political appointments of MPs’ special advisors, presumably to make sure they are on the right of the party and not supporters of socialism, as Starmer hates left-wingers. She is also said to have been involved in the “passes for glasses” scandal that has beset Starmer’s acceptance of money donations and gifts from Lord Alli.

Probably a coincidence but as well as giving Starmer tens of thousands of pounds worth of “gifts”, Alli has been giving a financial helping hand to Sue Gray's family.

“Lord Alli also donated £10,000 to her son Liam Conlon, who entered the House of Commons after winning the Beckenham and Penge seat at July’s general election.” ( inews: 29/08/24)

A couple of days ago I quoted the figure of £76,00 as the value of the “gifts" Starmer had received since 2019. I must apologise. This figure is inaccurate. According to Sky News the true figure is £107,145. This is nearly three times more than the second highest claimer of freebies, Lucy Powel, another Labour MP.

It seems that self-serving cronyism is alive and well in Starmer’s Blairite Labour Party.

[max--phillips]

Alright, kids, my unhinged data gathering about EVs has culminated in a google sheet that is now, to the best of my knowledge, complete. I have looked at every active car manufacturer in the US, their EVs (if they have any), their plug-in hybrids (if they have any) (also, referred to as PHEVs), their base price, their max price (meaning, I went in to their build function and added all the shit to it I possibly could), their minimum range, maximum available range, and the type of vehicle. For PHEVs, this included electric-only range, total range, and MPGe (miles per gallon equivalent).

You can visit the Google sheet where this information lives here. Edit from June of 2024: the Google sheet is currently unavailable, sorry!

First of all: Why the hell did I do this?

Great question. I got passed on the road about a month ago by a pack of Lucid Air test drive vehicles. It was a rare instance of me not recognizing a vehicle--I literally work with them every day to make a living, and I consider myself to be pretty acquainted with the available auto manufacturers in the US. So, I looked them up, and it's a new EV brand, which might be a good thing vis a vis bringing more players to the market and all that jazz... but their base MSRP is fucking $87,000. I got so mad about the fact that manufacturers just keep bringing luxury EVs to the market and not like, consumer-level, reasonably priced EVs that I decided to compile this list of information to... well. To be fair I don't know what I was hoping to accomplish with this. At most, prove a point, I guess?

With that out of the way... what did we learn from this?

No more electric SUV options. Society has progressed past the need for more electric SUV options.

I compiled information on a grand total of 40 current EV models, 43 future EV models, 35 current PHEV models, and uh... 2 future PHEV models. Of those, 34 current EVs, 26 future EVs, 23 current PHEVs, and 1 of the future PHEVs were SUVs. That's 70%. Meanwhile, we have (in all four categories) 1 lone cargo van/work vehicle, 10 coupes, 8 pickup trucks, 1 hatchback, 1 minivan, 29 sedans, 3 wagons, and 1 microbus (VW ID. Buzz my beloved). And listen, don't get me wrong: SUVs are great. They're versatile (the U in SUV is for 'utility' after all!) and they're filling the niche that minivans once did, but damn, 70% of the market? Come ON guys. We're more interesting than that, I hope.

Are you not rich? Want an EV? Too bad.

The average base MSRP for an EV in the US right now is $65,556. Are you kidding me? The average base MSRP for the future EVs I found information on is $86,377. The PHEVs include some performance/ultra-luxury brands because of the fact electric motors provide a lot of torque and are desirable in some performance vehicles, so even taking those out, the average base MSRP of a PHEV is $63,442.

The superlatives

Current EVs

First, the good superlatives:

Lowest base MSRP & max price both go to the Chevy Bolt EV, ranging from $26,500 to $34,000. (sedan, range around 259 miles)

Highest range (unfortunately) goes to the Lucid Air, the vehicle that started me on this whole thing. The minimum range is 410 miles, which is the highest minimum range available. The maximum range is 516 miles, blowing the Tesla Model S extended range out of the water by 111 miles. (sedan, price ranges from $87,400 to $249,000).

Now, the bad superlatives

Highest base MSRP goes to the Audi RS e-tron GT, at a whopping $143,900. This beats our highest maximum price model's base MSRP by $2,700. (sedan, range around 232)

Highest maximum price goes to the Porsche Taycan Sport Turismo and Cross Turismo at $304,000. Fun fact: $30,000 of that maximum price is for custom paint. (wagon, range from 222-235 miles)

Lowest range goes to the Mazda MX-30 with a measly 100 miles of range. The next lowest range, the Ford E-Transit, a cargo van, gets 108! This vehicle is currently only available in California. (SUV, price ranges from $34,110 to $43,000)

Current PHEVs

Good superlatives

Highest electric only range goes to Land Rover, both the Range Rover and the Range Rover Sport, with 51 miles. (SUV, MPGe for both is 42, total range for both is 480, price for the Range Rover Sport ranges from $118,200 to $159,000, and price for the Range Rover Sport ranges from $142,575 tp $170,000).

Highest total range, best MPGe, AND lowest base MSRP goes to the Toyota Prius Prime, with 640 miles of total range and a whopping 133 MPGe. Its base MSRP is $32,350. (sedan, electric only range is 44 miles, maximum price is $50,000)

Lowest maximum price goes to the Kia Niro, which will only let you spend $44,000 on it. (SUV, base MSRP $33,840, electric only range 33 miles, total range 560, MPGe 108)

Bad superlatives (a lot of ties for this one, folks)

Worst total range: a tie between the BMW XM and the MINI Countryman, both at 300 miles. (BMW XM: SUV, 30 miles electric only range, 46 MPGe, costs between $159,00 and $186,000. MINI Countryman: Sedan, 17 miles electric only range, 73 MPGe, costs around $41,000)

Worst electric only range is a tie between the Ferrari 296 and Ferrari SF90, both at 15 miles. I have thoughts (derogatory) about these models, but I'll save them. (both coupes; both 330 miles total range; 296 gets 47 MPGe, SF90 gets 51 MPGe. Base MSRP for the 296 is $237,500. I'll get to the SF90 in a moment,)

Worst MPGe goes to the McLaren Artura at 39 MPGe. (Coupe, 330 total range, 19 miles electric only range, base MSRP $237,500)

The highest listed maximum price goes to the Porsche Panamera E-Hybrid, at $295,815. (Sedan, 19 miles electric-only range, 480 miles total range, 52 MPGe, base MSRP is $109,000.)

The highest base MSRP goes, once again, to the Ferrari SF90 at $524,815. Just reading that number hurts me.

Finally, a five-way tie for the most likely to have the highest actual maximum price, because they're cowards and don't put their pricing on their websites. These are the Ferrari SF90, the Ferrari 296, the Bentley Flying Spur, the Bentley Bentayga, and the McLaren Artura. (Bentley Flying Spur: Sedan, 26 miles electric-only range, 500 miles total range, 46 MPGe, base MSRP $217,525. Bentayga: SUV, 29 miles electric only range, 448 total range, 45 MPGe, base MSRP $200,025).

I'm not going to do any superlatives for future vehicles because I don't want to jump the gun on any judgements. Plus, with some of them the MSRPs are just like... educated guesses. Anyway, I have the whole google sheet here if you wanna poke around.

What conclusions can we draw from this?

I appreciate that the US wants to regulate new car sales sooner rather than later to encourage new EV sales in an attempt to be more environmentally friendly. However, until the average price for a new EV comes down significantly, more and more people are going to be in the used car market whether they want to be or not. Beyond that, we simply do not have the infrastructure for this. There are gas stations on damn near every corner, but the closest charging station to me is 2 miles away, and even that's a Tesla Supercharger, so it's only useful if you have a Tesla. The closest non-Tesla charger is 4 miles away. Sure, you can plug it in at home, but in order for that to be done at more than a snail's pace, you need to have it specially installed which is an additional cost that people may not be able to afford.

Additionally, it's interesting to me that being environmentally friendly is still such a huge privilege that's seemingly marketed towards wealthy people, yet huge corporations and the ultrawealthy people actually polluting our planet continue to offload the blame onto poor people for using single use plastics. It's a bizarre paradox.

In conclusion, car manufacturers need to get their shit together so more people can buy EVs at a price that isn't insane. Thank you goodbye

[dream-loudly]

The Impact of Beyoncé’s Renaissance - Album Review Almost One Year Later

May 28, 2023

It’s been almost a year since Beyoncé released her seventh studio album Renaissance, which was released July 29, 2022. Ever since that day, the album is still a daily discussion amongst critics and listeners alike. However, one thing that was very apparent while listening to this album was how queer it sounded. Everything from the ballroom influenced outro on ‘Heated’ to the flamboyant sounds on ‘Pure/Honey.’ This album is a gay fantasy. Nevertheless, how does this album stand the test of time one year later?

I’ve been a Beyoncé fan for as long as I remember. My favorite project by her to date would have to be B-Day, which was Beyoncé’s second studio album. B-Day in my opinion was a skipless masterpiece that will keep you moving from the first song to the last. It was when we got pop star Beyoncé. However, as Queen Bey’s career started to progress, she made the decision to make more artistic choices in her music that ranged from political awareness to personal themes such as marriage and infidelity. Nevertheless, this showed a lot of growth in Beyoncé’s artistry, but for me something was missing when she made the change in her career. I missed Beyoncé the pop star. I wanted her to make fun, carefree dance music. However, with Renaissance, Beyoncé is still political but displays it in a different way through the intersections of different communities, especially the queer community. Beyoncé has stated that this album is inspired by her late uncle Johnny who passed away from AIDS complications. The album is heavily influenced by Dance-pop, house, disco, R&B and Afrobeat. The first single that was released was ‘Break My Soul,’ which interpolates ‘Show Me Love,’ by Robin S. When I saw that title of the song, I assumed it was going to be a ballad, but I was pleasantly surprised by the sound, which was something I have never heard from Beyoncé. This was a sign that a new era was coming!

As July 29th approached, I was eager and excited to hear what this body of work would sound like in it’s entirety. At first listen, I was impressed by the complexities of the sounds. Every song had transitions that slowly faded into the next song similar to that of a DJ set. There’s a couple of transitions that come to mind, one being the Cuff it, Energy and Break My Soul transitions that were chief’s kiss and very pleasing to the ear. I loved how she wanted this album to feel like a club experience. Speaking of club experience, I went to a gay club one month after Renaissance was released and the DJ played four songs from the album. This says a lot considering that it isn’t always the norm to hear multiple songs from one artist, especially songs that would be considered deep cuts from an album. One of those deeps cuts that would eventually become a single is ‘Cuff It.’

Cuff It was definitely a highlight on this album for me. It’s bright, lighthearted and dance floor ready. It’s nostalgic and throwback to 70s disco. The song gained immense popularity on TikTok after users started creating dances to the song ultimately inspiring the “Cuff it challenge.” Along with Cuff It, there were other songs that were polarizing from this project such as Virgo’s Groove, which is a whopping six minutes in length. However, when listening to the track, it doesn’t feel like a long song as the harmonies and arrangements are made in a way to flow as it is too enjoyable to even think about the playing time. What is especially interesting to me about the song is the sultry outro in which Beyoncé coos the lyrics, “You’re the love of my life.” It is so beautiful yet striking to hear those powerhouse vocals, and apparently there’s emotion behind what she’s trying to convey. Another few songs that are worth mentioning are THIQUE, All Up In Your Mind and America Has a Song Problem.

Renaissance was released 10 months ago at this point and there seems to still be quite a dialogue going on about the album. In a way, it has taken on a life of its own. Before Renaissance Beyoncé was taking on social and political topics in her music about blackness and black liberation. However, she does the same thing here, but with the intersections of the queer community. House and disco were created by queer people of color, especially black and brown folks in cities such as New York and Chicago. Beyoncé does her homework when studying these sounds and as a result gives credit to the innovators who made this sound possible. However, we still have to acknowledge that Beyoncé is a cisgendered, straight woman dappling in this genre. There’s a big difference between appropriating and appreciating; however, Beyoncé is doing the latter. I’ve also noticed that the album is not an easy listen for most people. There are so many sounds, transitions and effects going on that it might be hard for the general listener to keep up with. This was evident recently when YouTuber AJay Deluxe reacted to Renaissance for the first time. And when I say that woman was dragged by social media, I mean DRAGGED! To be fair, house, dance and disco aren’t everyone’s cup of tea in terms of music, and everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Nevertheless, one problematic thing she said in her video is that Renaissance is “hip hop,” which is furtherest from the truth. Beyoncé is known for talk-singing in a melodic way so it is completely ignorant to call her music hip hop just because she’s singing or talking in rhythmic patterns. The tracks where you can clearly hear those tones are in Church Girl and THIQUE, but to say the whole album is considered hip hop is a stretch.

In conclusion, after spending one year with Renaissance, I still listen to the album at least twice a week. I’ve actually never grown tired of it. It simply gets better with every listen. It’s safe to say that this is my second favorite Beyoncé album (first being B-Day). I’m also astounded by how Beyoncé is constantly reinventing herself with each era in her career. As someone who has followed her since her days of Destiny’s Child, I am proud to say that she is just as relevant if not more than she was back when she debuted. Renaissance is going to be an album that we will be speaking about for years to come. It’s legendary, iconic and timeless.

[marveltrumpshate]

THE CREATOR SIGN-UP PERIOD IS NOW OVER.

Over the past two weeks, we received an incredible number of responses—Marvel Trumps Hate 2022 has 181 fabulous creators participating and a whopping 312 auctions for all of you keen bidders out there to peruse! 🎉

Thanks to everyone who signed up to create something—we value each and every one of you. We’re touched by your generosity in donating your time and creative efforts to raise money for great causes. Thanks also to everyone who supported and assisted us with signal boosting sign-ups—we appreciate your help in making this auction happen. We’re sure your favorite superheroes would be proud of you.

To ensure that everything runs smoothly during Auction Week, sign-ups are now closed unless you’ve been given an extension. We’re sorry if any of you missed the cutoff, but we hope you’ll join us as bidders instead!

Remember, Auction Week will begin at 12 AM ET on Sunday, October 23 (what time is that for me?) and run until 11:59 PM ET on Saturday, October 29 (what time is that for me?). We look forward to seeing creators proudly reblogging their offerings and people eagerly bidding on auctions in three weeks’ time.

Everyone should have received a confirmation email apart from a few last-minute sign-ups; it can take a few hours for some people to receive the email so if you signed up today, you may have to wait. However, if you signed up over a day ago and don't see the email in your inbox or spam folder, contact us at marveltrumpshate+creators@gmail.com. Remember that you have until October 9 to review your information, submit any final changes, and if you didn’t participate as a creator in Marvel Trumps Hate 2021, send us your banner images. Please do so ASAP so we can resolve any issues that come up in a timely manner.

We’ll have more information for everyone soon, so follow us or keep an eye on our Tumblr or Twitter to stay posted. Thanks again for helping us make the 2022 round of Marvel Trumps Hate a reality!

As always, if you have any questions, contact us directly. We’re always happy to answer queries or allay any concerns you may have.

[tinnitusdiaries]

10/29/2023 - Intro

Recently, I discovered, that writing letters to those that do not exist helps me process my emotions.

Not so recently, I discovered, I type a whole lot faster than I write (a whopping 120wpm according to https://monkeytype.com).

This means it would be best for me to keep all my thoughts and big emotions on some sort of Google Document or Notes file on my stupid iPad Mini that was "included" in my tuition at some fancy music school I went to years ago. However, my OCD reacts well when there is a 1%< chance that someone actually reads it. This way there is a chance of someone going, "Wow, she's unwell" and I can go, "Wow, they're right. That's irrational." So here, on my empty Tumblr years after Tumblr has gone out of style, I shout (type) into the void knowing there is a 1%< chance some stranger reads my post and goes, "Wow, she's unwell."

Or, there's a 1%< chance someone reads it and relates.

There is a 100% chance this keeps me distracted from my OCD and tinnitus, or at the very least provides temporary relief. God, do we all need relief from something. Did I mention I'm a chronic ear ringer, too? I guess you could assume this by my blog name.

I'll keep my thoughts here from now on, and I'll keep my even bigger thoughts in an ironically small journal I leave on the side of my bed that reads, "Be the Windshield, not the Bug."

Have a great day!

[ailtrahq]

After a rally on 28 September, PEPE retraced by more than 3% the next day. It appeared that a broader market accumulation was underway. There’s hardly been a single dull chapter in the brief history of the frog-themed Pepe [PEPE]. The memecoin’s fickle price swings, which can make or break a portfolio, have piqued the interest of many cryptocurrency watchers. Is your portfolio green? Check out the PEPE Profit Calculator PEPE moves unpredictably On 28 September, the memecoin jumped more than 12% in value, as per data from CoinMarketCap. Seeing the trajectory, the bulls might have geared for further gains. But unfortunately, this was not the case. Source: CoinMarketCap A day later, on 29 September, PEPE retraced more than 3%. While this might be attributed to profit-seeking traders, the fluctuations were an accurate reflection of the memecoin’s volatile behavior. Are whales on to something? The third-largest memecoin by market cap saw sustained trading activity in recent days. The market moves of a specific address garnered considerable interest. According to Lookonchain, the traders have been buying and selling PEPE tokens on a regular basis in order to maximize gains. After having made a whopping $2.34 million from their previous trades, the address purchased PEPE worth $645,000 in a transaction on 29 September. Needless to say, the trader was bullish on PEPE’s near-term prospects. But it was not just restricted to one wallet. According to data from Santiment, whales added to their stacks lavishly, as evidenced by the spike in supply held by top addresses. Source: Santiment Moreover, the supply on exchanges has declined considerably over the week. This suggested that a broader market accumulation was underway and PEPE could rise further after testing the support levels. Remember that the turbulent world of memecoins is fraught with dangers. Investors are advised to tread with caution and DYOR. Social activity dips Surprisingly, the social buzz around PEPE has climbed down after peaking a week ago. This despite the steady increase in the value of the coin. Additionally, weighted sentiment fell into the negative territory as of 29 September, indicating that investors had a pessimistic view Source: Santiment Read Pepe’s [PEPE] Price Prediction 2023-24 PEPE was a departure from the numerous dog-themed tokens that dominated the market. The crypto coin exploded 10x within days of its launch, attracting a swarm of profit-hungry traders. According to PEPE’s official site, the coin doesn’t have any intrinsic value or expectation of financial return.

[patsallthedogs]

Who the hell are you, Allyson?

Good question, inner-monologue!

Needless to say so much of my life has changed these past 1-2 years, I'm truly a lost soul.

Let me put proverbial pen to paper and let's figure it out.

I'm a person who enjoys a really clicky, flashy keyboard to write out the inner musings of my ever-fluid mind. Know that with every letter input, my soul is fed tiny breadcrumbs of pure joy.

I'm somewhat aged...ish. If I were a crème Brule I would still be in the liquid stage of my gelatinating. I turned 29 a bit over a month ago. But I don't feel 29... I can appreciate that age doesn't necessarily have an assigned feeling, but in my younger years I thought I would have more answers than I currently do. Alas, liquid stage brule. Still hoping to rise.

Ollie has been my pal for nearly 8 years. Circumstances have seen me move, a lot, in the past few years and we've gotten each other through those anxiety-ridden sea-changes. By the way, he's my dog. I know everyone says that, and then they blast their socials with photo after photo of selfies whereby the dog is often struggling to get away from their owner to avoid another 'candid' affection-session. But Ol, he's got my back and our cuddles don't need photographic evidence.

Roughly two-ish years ago, I found yoga. My google search led me to this gorgeous little studio in Blacktown and the practice stole my heart. I try to do it often. Life happens sometimes. But for a gal with next to no coordination, it gives me balance and helps me unwind.

I have a big beautiful bookcase that my late grandfather built me. It's full of books that I've read, and a lot more than I really want to read but never make the time to. When I was younger I found concentrating easy. Now, struggling on the precipice of the 'I do not want to plug-in and text and take pictures of f*cking everything, but I'm turning into a hermit' lifestyle, I find it difficult to sit down for a solid chunk of time and zone out. It's a work in progress though.

I change my hair colour a lot. It's a seesaw between browny/ashy/blondie and like bright red. Can confirm, my original shade is some hue of brown.

Friends is my hands-down, all-time, favourite show. I have seen every season at least 10-15 times. There's 10 seasons. Roughly 20-25 episodes per season at a whopping 24 minutes per episode. I still lose my mind laughing and I have undoubtedly incorporated that sense of humour into my personality. Mini-wave in celebration of me. A woo-hoo!

Need a decision made? Look further. Yep, you read that right. Libras of the world, speak now. I recently read an astrological post about the different sign types and I'll give it some merit. In a nutshell, we overthink a lot, we love hard, and we are constantly seeking resolution and peace. Much like Tinkerbell, if we are not in good company our light will go out.

This year, I am making an active effort to slow down. Mentally, emotionally, physically. My mind is mosh-pit of stampeding animals all trying to cram into an airplane toilet cubicle. Have you ever heard the irony that the fiercest marine animal in the ocean, the shark, must keep swimming or they will die? My brain runs on a similar anomaly. Even when I sleep, I'm thinking.

Like most people, I want to be fundamentally happy. It's my dream. It's the backbone of 99.99998% of decisions I make. About two years ago, I made the decision that my happiness is king. That gumption gave me the bravery to walk away from a miserable relationship, in a miserable, predictable life that was millimetres away from attempting a Dementor's kiss on me. Scary stuff.

Lorelai Gilmore sums it up best when she energetically squeals "COFFEE COFFEE COFFEE!" at the drab barista.

I forget to cut the tags off my clothing. My tee-shirts are often times transparent on the days I decide to wear a really eccentric bra and I swear, I always TRY to be on time. Truthfully though, on a good day 20 minutes late is 5 early for me.

When did iPhones become so losable? I'm sort of sorry, but I'm sort of not - I just don't care enough about taking pictures or the Gram to have it glued to my palm.

In amidst all my recent existentialism, I have accepted that the universe is going to do what it's got planned, and as shitty as that is sometimes you have to ride the wave. Good things are always coming.

[bemoremuse]

radical i got kanata and vicious’s pages done Time to find me the crestoria rpers

[heart-of-the-morningstar]

ML RESEARCH

Hi all! A few days ago, I made a post asking what everyone’s favorite side of the Love Square is and your age range so I could do some research and if I could see any sort of pattern. I’m happy to say I’ve finished the graphs!

Keep in mind, these were from a total of 324 responses from Tumblr, so this in no way represents the community as a whole! Also, some of the totals for the sides of the Love Square were best guesses as some people did not put just one ship in the tags, I went with the first one they put for simplicity’s sake haha!

Ok, so...here we go!

The first graph I have is the # of votes I got for each side of the Love Square!

Unsurprisingly, Marichat took first place with 138 total votes! And sadly, Ladrien took last place with only 22 votes. I guessed that Marichat would be the most popular but LadyNoir was not far behind! To my surprise, I thought that Adrienette would have gotten more votes!

My second graph shows the # of people in each age range that cast a vote!

It turns out the the 18-24 group overwhelmed every other age group in this poll, taking up a whopping 51% of the total votes cast! The lowest number of people were from the 30+ group as I hypothesized. The margin between 13-17 and 25-29 is slimmer than I thought it would be!

And for my final graph, this shows how many votes were cast for each ship based on the age ranges!

The most common response I received based on this data was “Marichat 18-24”, which is not shocking considering both Marichat and 18-24 were the most common in their respective categories. The two younger groups follow a similar pattern in votes (Marichat, Ladynoir, Adrienette, Ladrien) while the older groups have a slightly different pattern (Marichat, Adrienette, Ladynoir, Adrienette). I suppose the older groups appreciate the shyness and sweetness of Adrienette over the banter and teasing nature of Ladynoir! Poor Ladrien ranked last in every single category :(

What do you guys think?! This was a very interesting and fun little project to do! What conclusions do you come to when you see these graphs? Let me know!

[100tri365]

Chanel west coadt pokies

Chanel West Coast - CelebritySlips.

Chanel West Coast Goes Completely See-Through On Instagram:.

Chanel West Coast (33 photos).

Chanel West Coast Suffers Malfunction In Plunging Underwear.

Chanel West Coast suffers malfunction in dominatrix suspender.

Chanel West Coast Archives ⋆ CELEBRITY BIKINI BOOTY.

How Much Does Chanel West Coast Make on 'Ridiculousness.

Chanel West Coast Archives - Nude celebrity.

It's Absolute Ridiculousness Just How Hot The Captivating Chanel.

Chanel West Coast Hot And Sexy Photo Collection – Leaked Diaries.

Her nipples are rock hard the whole episode - reddit.

Chanel West Coast Nip Slip at the Beach in Miami - Barnorama.

Chanel West Coast Flaunts Amazing String Bikini Pics, “THIICCKKK”.

Chanel West Coast Shares Selfie on 'Ridiculousness' Set: 'We Glowin'.

Chanel West Coast - CelebritySlips.

About Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Terms Privacy Policy & Safety How YouTube works Test new features Press Copyright Contact us Creators. Oct 15, 2020 · Dailyhottcelebs. Chanel West Coast (33 photos) 2 years ago 2 years ago.

Chanel West Coast Goes Completely See-Through On Instagram:.

Category: Chanel West Coast. Chanel West Coast Sexy Photos (19 images) Chanel West Coast See Through Sexy Photos (11 pictures) Chanel West Coast See Through Photos (26 pics) Chanel West Coast Nip Slips Pics (7 pictures) Search for: Categories. Aarika Wolf; Abbey Clancy; Abbey Lee Kershaw; Abbie Cornish; Abigail Breslin. Mar 16, 2020 · Mar 16, 2020 7:13 pm ·. By In Touch Staff. Passing the time. Chanel West Coast (a.k.a. Chelsea Chanel Dudley) treated fans to a sultry new booty snap via Instagram on Sunday, March 15, showing.

Chanel West Coast (33 photos).

32 Sexy Girls Wearing Bikini 16.2K shares. Funny, Interesting And Crazy Photos (82 Pics) 11.2K shares. The Funniest Memes On The Net 10.7K shares. Funny Memes Vol.39 6.5K shares. 19 Cool And Interesting Guides 5.9K shares. 55 Sexy Girls In Tight Dresses 5.8K shares. 54 Sexy Girls In Tight Dresses 5.1K shares. 48 Hot Busty Girls 4.9K shares.

Chanel West Coast Suffers Malfunction In Plunging Underwear.

. Once again sorry for the lack of uploads. Have a good day!. Chanel West Coast was at the Maxim Hot 100 party when she donned a see-through dress. We are Daily Star Online HQ are pretty unshockable but this made even us blush. Chanel went to the party wearing a white lace dress that flashed absolutely everything. The dress exposed part of her nipple as the detailing struggled to cover her bare boobs.

Chanel West Coast suffers malfunction in dominatrix suspender.

Jul 29, 2019 · Reality TV. Jul 29, 2019 3:09 pm ·. By Megan Heintz. How much does Chanel West Coast make on Ridiculousness, do you ask? Well, according to Earn the Necklace, she brings in a whopping $142,050. Pokies. Close. 157. Posted by 2 years ago. Pokies. 0 comments. share. save. hide. report. 100% Upvoted. Log in or sign up to leave a comment. Log In Sign Up.... For all the lovely pictures of the beautiful Chanel West Coast. Rapper/Singer/Actress Recording Artist & TV personality. 45.4k. Members. 31. Online. Created May 4, 2013. 334 votes, 14 comments. 46.2k members in the ChanelWestCoast community. For all the lovely pictures of the beautiful Chanel West Coast.

Chanel West Coast Archives ⋆ CELEBRITY BIKINI BOOTY.

Chanel West Coast is a rapper, singer, composer, actor, and model who has released several albums. She rose to notoriety as a co-host of MTV’s Rob Dyrdek’s Fantasy Factory and Ridiculousness. Which she co-hosted for 21 seasons spanning a decade. In 2009, Chanel began making music and collaborating with a variety of artists.

How Much Does Chanel West Coast Make on 'Ridiculousness.

Chanel West Coast lost her boyfriend at 19. Tragedy struck Chanel West Coast's young life as early as 2007, when her ex-boyfriend, Saul Garcia, was shot and killed on December 5 of that year. Oct 26, 2020 · Chanel West plastic surgery Before and after pics. Chanel West’s Body Measurements: Height (Meters): 1.60m Height (Centimeters0: 160cm Height (Feet): 5 Feet 3 Inches Weight (Kilograms): 43kg Weight (Pounds): 95lbs Body Measurement and Size: 34-24-32 Bra Size: 34B Eye Color: Brown Cup Shape: B. Chanel West Plastic surgery. A post shared by Chanel West Coast (@chanelwestcoast) on Nov 27, 2016 at 4:50pm PST You know you’ve got a freedom boner for Chanel as the Statue of Liberty. View this post on Instagram "Think like a queen. A queen is not afraid to fail. Failure is another steppingstone to greatness." ~ Oprah Winfrey 👑👑👑.

Chanel West Coast Archives - Nude celebrity.

Oct 04, 2017 · Oct 4, 2017. Chanel West Coast wants all you “motherfuckas” to know you’re already too late… and that she already has another fiery new music video. It’s all for her single “ New Bae. Nov 10, 2021 · Chanel posted for her 3.5 million followers to show a little behind-the-scenes action, and it wasn't your average affair as the star suffered an oops moment. West Coast was shouting out her Call Her Wolves shoot while rocking plunging black underwear. See what happened below. Chanel West Coast‘s ultra-provocative topless look has turned into a chain – there are now three images of the 31-year-old rapper and MTV star showing off her curves in a bondage-style outfit over on her Instagram. Chanel had already marked herself as self-distancing during the coronavirus pandemicon Monday.

It's Absolute Ridiculousness Just How Hot The Captivating Chanel.

46.4k members in the ChanelWestCoast community. For all the lovely pictures of the beautiful Chanel West Coast. Rapper/Singer/Actress Recording.

Chanel West Coast Hot And Sexy Photo Collection – Leaked Diaries.

About 251 results (0.64 seconds) Chanel west coast. 5mo ⋅ Thatswhatshesaid_69_ ⋅ r/Justfuckmyshitup. Gorgeous Chanel West Coast. 1yr ⋅ CaregiverJust ⋅ r/ChanelWestCoast. Oct 29, 2021 · Chanel West Coast Sizzles In Suspender Lingerie. Scroll for the photo, one gaining over 40,000 likes in 15 hours. Chanel, largely making 2021 headlines for leaving L.A. and those endless designer-clad updates, had paused the carousel of Louis Vuitton and Chanel, instead going for a classic bad girl undies look. Chanel West Coast took to her Instagram Story on Wednesday, August 7, to share a selfie (and a selfie video) while backstage on Ridiculousness. The 30-year-old was clearly feeling herself, and TBH.

Her nipples are rock hard the whole episode - reddit.

Chanel West Coast, American rapper, singer-songwriter, actress, model and television personality - whoa that's a long list - has made an appearance in Las Vegas at a pool party wearing a colorful swimsuit. Alas, it's not as naughty as we'd hoped, but we like the polka dots on her dot, and since we're there, her booty too!.

Chanel West Coast Nip Slip at the Beach in Miami - Barnorama.

Definitely a win moment for her!🔥🔥🔥.

Chanel West Coast Flaunts Amazing String Bikini Pics, “THIICCKKK”.

Dec 27, 2020 · HQ Celebrity Bikini Booty Pics, Hollywood, Pokies, Upskirt, Candids, Red Carpet, Photoshoot, Booty, Bikini... Menu. CELEBRITIES; FaceBook;... Chanel West Coast. Chanel West Coast attends Rolling Loud Fueled by West Coast Cure Los Angeles 2019 - Day 1 on December 14, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. Rapper Chanel West Coast attends the 2017 MTV Movie And TV Awards at The Shrine Auditorium on May 7, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. Give me suggestions for more lyric videos.Chanel West Coast's (from Rob Dyrdek's Fantasy Factory) first single "Cookie" available now on itunes. I do not own.

Chanel West Coast Shares Selfie on 'Ridiculousness' Set: 'We Glowin'.

Feb 14, 2020 · Chanel West Coast is the gorgeous 31-year-old rapper/actress from Los Angeles best known for co-hosting MTV’s Ridiculousness with Rob Dyrdek and Sterling “Steelo” Brim. (She launched her. "When you tryna be sexy and fail" - Chanel West Coast gets props for self-posting her oops moment to Instagram today. The 32-year-old rapper and MTV face, already in the news this year for suffering lobster-level sunburn during her Miami Beach travels, was today back on shores and enjoying a Hot Girl Summer in April.

See also:

Poki Super Bowl

Poki Rae

Subway Surf Game On Poki

[mihidecet]

Sbi&CO d&d AU: The Dream Team

Aka: Tibi's MCYT WritingTober, day 29: "A normal day"

Listen the original prompt, from @the-only-gamer-gost 's list, was evidently mc related but I just had to write this. Whops ahah

It's time for you to meet another part of this AU's cast! I do hope you'll enjoy reading this ahahah

George takes a deep breath.

He is in his study: the smell surrounding him is gentle, of old wood and older books, of the flowers he's growing on the windowsill, of the almost empty cup of tea his tutor insisted he drank before practicing - "you can't do magic on an empty stomach, I will not have you pass out like a fresh-faced student with no experience!"

It is quite easy to fall back into his own mind, he's done it so many times ever since he started training, but it is never quite easy to-

A light thump, the sound of a small metallic bead hitting his window, prompts him to open his eyes.

George purses his lips in barely concealed irritation and shakes his head. He has to focus. This is precisely why he wanted to skip breakfast, so that he could start before they arrived to bother him.

He's been meaning to try out a new theory - a new spell - for a while, and it requires him to be at maximum concentration because time is a fickle bitch that does not like being toyed with.

So George closes his eyes again and focuses on the pattern of his breathing. He feels for a moment in complete awareness of every inch of his body, and then he opens his eyes.

In front of him, millions of millions of shimmering particles float, gently, into the air in front of him, as if somebody had decided to hang an infinite amount of pieces of iridescent glass with invisible strings. George could live a thousand years and never get tired of seeing the figments of reality and specks of possibilities that exist in the time dimension.

Raising his hand to touch one of them feels like moving through thick molasses after a day of exercise - his muscles protest, scream at him, and it is such a strenuous act.

But he knows to persist - what's coming is going to be even harder - so after what seems like an eternity, but in reality is no time at all, the tips of his fingers brush against the burning cold of a figment of reality.

A fraction of a second later, George stumbles forward, head ringing as he's thrown out of his own personal pocket in time. In his ears, the sound of another of those damned pebbles against his bloody window.

George lets out a loud curse and stomps to the window, opening it with a gesture of his hand and then immediately raising his arcane shield as another pebble flies right at him - as it had been aimed at his poor window once more.

Filled with a righteous fury, George slams his hands on the windowsill - mindful of his poor and completely innocent Forget-Me-Nots - and leans forward to look down at the recently acquired banes of his existence.

"See, I told you it would work- George! George wanna come train with us?" Calls out the fighter, waving a hand frantically as he elbows his shorter monk friend.

"No! Leave me alone!" George yells back, and instantly closes the window and goes back to his position in the centre of the room.

He closes his eyes, focuses on his breathing, and-

Another pebble. He is going to murder them.

"What do you want?! I told you I'm busy!"

The fighter spreads his arms open - almost hitting his friend in the face, if said friend hadn't ducked down instantly.

"Oh, come on George! It's gonna be fun!"

"I'm not interested! Now, leave before I start throwing spells your way!"

The monk scoffs, crossing his arms over his chest and lifting his chin up in defiance.

"As if you could catch me! I bet you can't, and you're scared, and that's why-" a pale green hand is suddenly covering the human's mouth, its owner looking awkwardly up at George with a tentative smile - as if that douche's attempt at riling him up could have worked.

On a completely unrelated note, George has had enough of that conversation.

"You bother me again today and you will regret it." And with that, he closes the window again.

Definitely not hearing the monk's confused "does that mean we can come back tomorrow?". He is just going to ignore it.

The moment he turns back around, he almost has a heart attack.

Leaning against the doorframe, arms crossed and a knowing smile on his face, is his mentor.

"Bloody hell, I didn't hear you arriving." George mumbles, moving to grab him a chair as the older wizard chuckles.

"I figured, you were having quite a spat." Scott comments, sitting down on the armchair and nodding towards the window, looking more pleased than he should be.

George gives a scoff, letting himself slump into his chair.

"They are relentless. I don't know what to do anymore." He mopes, but as he should have expected Scott has no pity to share and immediately tackles a new, equally pressing problem.

"Have you found your teammates for the tournament yet?" He asks, crossing one leg over the other and resting his chin in his hand. About two months ago, George had agreed, after ages of declining invitations and rejecting requests, to take part in the yearly tournament his mentor ideated - agreeing only on the terms that he would be able to choose his own teammates. Which is not that unusual, people can arrive with their friends and form a team. George's main problem? His sadly evident lack of friends - at least, friends that will take part in the tournament.

"Not yet. They're all so … various. And peculiar. I'm-" He halts, hands clasped together and squeezing one another, as if they were stress relievers. Noticing his discomfort, Scott seems to take immediately a step back from his usual flippant persona as his expression softens and his posture relaxes.

"You're free to speak your mind." He reminds him gently, so George takes a small breath and looks away, towards the door, ignoring the awkwardness of his admission.

"I'm worried my purely academic training will make me underperform."

"That is possible. It is also possible that you do well. Has the prospect of failure ever stopped you?" Scott challenges, one eyebrow raising in doubt because this is the thing: Scott chose him as his protégé, he knows what George is capable of. He knows him, how competitive he is, how his pride gets in the way despite how much his self esteem is rather low. But still.

"I never had to fail in front of a crowd."

"I understand. Still, I think it will do you good. You should find people to team with, not many get this opportunity."

"I know! It's just that nobody's stuck out! They all seem like incredibly talented people!" George protests, crossing his arms over his chest and slumping back into the chair - sliding down a little, so that his chin presses up against his chest. So now he looks and feels like a child throwing a tantrum. Splendid.

"Well. I think there are at lest two you know by name." Scott notes, smiling with a conspiratory look, and George feels incredibly stupid that he let himself be played like this - did Scott manage to bring the discussion back to the two dumbasses that have been bothering him nonstop for the past couple of weeks?!

Dream and Sapnap- he has no care for them. None at all.

"Shut up." George replies weakly and Scott simply laughs - ever so rude, laughing at his self inflicted misery - before standing up. He circles the desk between them and puts a hand on his head, messing up his hair with a chuckle.

"I have to go, I have matters that await me. But it was nice to see you doing well. I'll wait for the names tonight." Scott's sing-song voice calls as he leaves with a smirk, closing the door behind him.

George lets out a long sigh and resigns himself to morning of meditating and practice.

It was nice to see his mentor again - he's been worried lately, as if on edge. George figures it's the tournament's fault, but one may never be sure.

A couple of days later, Dream wakes to the feeling of a pillow hitting him square in the face. Followed by a ripping noise. Followed by the feeling of stuffing falling on his face.

"Oops-" Sapnap says above him: when Dream opens his eyes, he's holding his pillow, now with a tear in it and stuffing slowly falling on the ground.

"SAP! What the fuck did I tell you about the tusks?!"

After their morning workout routine - which definitely does not entail Dream chasing Sapnap around their room as the shorter man jumps around on the furniture to escape, and absolutely doesn't end with them rolling on the floor as the half orc holds his teammate in a headlock - they have a quick breakfast and then hurry to the Academy.

Today's the day: they will be announcing the teams for this year's tournament, and they both can't wait who they will be fighting with.

The announcement is a strictly participant-only event, and from that point on they will have about a month to train with their new teammates inside the Academy's facilities.

The Academy is a huge building that looks and feels like those castles they talk about in fairytales: sky high towers of iridescent colours, with strands of various shades of purple and orange connecting invisible points in space - and perhaps time too. There are stairs and bridges connecting different sections, and Dream knows, from stories told by Master Calvin, that it is as tall in the sky as it is deep inside the bowels of the Earth. A magnificent display of arcane power and architectural prowess. As one would expect from the creators of this tournament, but still.

The crowd that gathers around the entrance is one of the most varied assortment of adventurers Dream has ever seen, and he knows Sapnap is thinking the same thing because the human's head keeps whipping from side to side as he stares at the people walking by.

Dream shoots, from time to time, a look around. He's not particularly looking for somebody - he is - and he's not going to let the knowledge of who is competing distract him from trying to do his best - debatable.

But still.

All the participants are directed toward the entry, where after a quick scan - to avoid strangers from entering - they manage to get inside the main hall.

Now, Dream and Sapnap have been told, by their respective masters, about the Academy, but nothing can ever quite prepare you for something this grandiose and extravagant as what they are seeing.

One would expect a centennial arcane academy, built by two archmages and hosting the best of the magical world in terms of teachers, students and knowledge, to be a stuffy, old fashioned institution.

One would be quickly proven wrong, as just the entrance hall happens to be a stunning portrait of multiple colours, bright and radiant, with moving paintings of famous arcane masters casting spells side by side with rather sweet drawings of past winners of the tournament hugging each other and holding out their prizes.

When Master Calvin had first suggested he move for a while to the Academy, in order to fully develop his arcane abilities, he had been skeptical: how could he, when Calvin's house had been his home for so long? But now, seeing all this, he thinks that maybe he could come to like this place.

At the end of the hall, on an apparently clear glass panel, are displayed the names of each team member.

With all the chatter and cheers and noises of people looking for each other - some are already leaving, having found what and who they were looking for - it's hard to catch the sound of Sapnap's sudden gasp.

It is less hard to notice him gripping his wrist and vigorously point at the glass as he lets out an excited laugh.

Dream follows where he's pointing, and-

"George is with us?!" He exclaims, mostly out of pure disbelief, eyes wide open as he looks back and forth between his friend and the list of names on the board.

"We're so going to win this!" Sapnap answers with an elated smile before bursts out laughing, jumping up and wrapping him in a full body hug - Dream catches him, letting out a small "omf" that is mainly due to the unexpectedness of it all.

"I can't believe it, we got so lucky!" The half-orc comments, his eyes skimming through the names listed on the board - some he recognises, more or less unfortunately, and some he doesn't.

"I know, right?! -" Sapnap comments, leaning back and letting go in order to nod with his head towards the floating glass.

"Now we just have to find out who Eret is, I guess."

[ethlargementpill]

Has Cryptocurrency Become Every Indian's Dream Investment?

Rich rewards often entail great risks, and the same is true with the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. The uncertainties in 2020 globally led to a heightened interest of masses and large institutional investors in trading cryptocurrencies, a new-age asset class. Increasing digitization, flexible regulatory framework, and supreme court lifting ban on banks dealing with crypto-based companies have parked investments of more than 10 million Indians in the last year. Several major global cryptocurrency exchanges are actively scouting the Indian crypto market, which has been showing a sustained surge in daily trading volume over the past year amid a big drop in prices as many investors looked at value buying. As the cryptocurrency frenzy continues, many new cryptocurrency exchanges have come up in the country that enables buying, selling, and trading by offering functionality through user-friendly applications. WazirX, India's biggest cryptocurrency trading platform doubled its users from one million to two million between January and March 2021.

What's Driving World's Largest Crypto Exchanges to the Indian market? In 2019, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, Binance acquired the Indian trade platform, WazirX. Another crypto start up, Coin DCX secured investment from Seychelles-based BitMEX and San-Francisco based-giant Coinbase. The crypto and blockchain start-ups in India have attracted investment of USD99.7 million by June 15, 2021, which totaled around USD95.4 million in 2020. In the last five years, global investment in the Indian crypto market has increased by a whopping 1487%.

Despite India's unclear policy, global investors are making huge bets on the country's digital coin ecosystem due to a variety of factors such as

• Tech-savvy Indian Population The predominant population of 1.39 billion are young (median age between 28 and 29 years) and tech-savvy. While the older generation still prefers to invest in gold, real estate, patents, or equities, the newer ones are embracing the high-risk cryptocurrency exchanges as they are more adaptable to them. India ranks 11th on Chainalysis's 2020 report listing for global adoption of crypto, which shows the excitement about crypto among the Indian population. Nor does the less-than-friendly attitude of the government towards crypto or rumors swirling around the crypto are able to shake the confidence of the youth population in the digital coin market.

India offers the cheapest internet in the world, where one gigabyte of mobile data costs around $0.26 while the global average is $8.53. So, almost half the billion users are taking advantage of affordable internet access, which enhances India's potential to become one of the largest crypto economies in the world. According to SimilarWeb, the country is the second-largest source of web traffic to peer-to-peer bitcoin trading platform, Paxful. While the mainstream economy is still struggling from the "pandemic effect", cryptocurrency is gaining momentum in the country as it provides the young generation a new and fast way of earning money.

It is safe to say that cryptocurrency might become Indian millennials what gold is for their parents!

• Rise of Fintech Start ups The cryptocurrency craze led to the emergence of multiple trading platforms such as WazirX, CoinSwitch, CoinDCX, ZebPay, Unocoin, and many others. These cryptocurrency exchange platforms are highly secured, accessible across various platforms, and allow instant transactions, providing a friendly interface for crypto enthusiasts to buy, sell, or trade digital assets limitlessly. Many of these platforms accept INR for purchases and trading fees as low as 0.1% so simple, fast, and secure platforms present a lucrative opportunity for both first-time investors and local traders.

WazirX is one of the leading cryptocurrency exchange platforms with over 900,000 users that provides customers with peer-to-peer transaction capabilities. CoinSwitch Kuber provides the best cryptocurrency exchange platform for Indians and is ideal for beginners as well as daily doers. Unocoin is one of the oldest cryptocurrency exchange platforms in India that account for over a million traders through mobile applications. CoinDCX provides users with 100+ cryptocurrencies as an option to make exchanges and even provides investors with insurance to cover losses in case of a security breach. So, global investors are eyeing the plethora of cryptocurrency exchange platforms in India to take advantage of the emerging market.

• Mixed Government Response The legislative bill regarding a ban against a virtual currency that would criminalize anyone engaged in possession, issuance, mining, trading, and transferring crypto assets might get enacted into law. However, Finance and Corporate Affair Minister Nirmala Sitharaman eased some investor's concerns saying that the government has not planned to completely bar cryptocurrency use. In a statement given to a leading English newspaper, Deccan Herald, the Finance Minister said, "From our side, we are very clear that we are not shutting all options. We will allow certain windows for people to do experiments on the blockchain, bitcoins, or cryptocurrency." It is evident that the government is still scrutinizing the national security risks posed by cryptocurrencies before deciding on putting a complete ban.

In March 2020, the Supreme court overturned the central bank's decision to ban financial institutions from dealing in cryptocurrencies, which prompted investors to pile into the cryptocurrency market. Despite the lingering fear of ban, transaction volumes continued to swell, and user registration and money inflows at local crypto-exchange became 30-fold from a year ago. One of India's oldest exchanges, Unocoin added 20,000 users in January and February of 2021. The total volume of Zebpay per day of Feb 2021 got equivalent to the volume generated in the whole month of Feb 2020. Addressing the cryptocurrency scenario in India, the Finance Minister said in a CNBC-TV18 interview, "I can only give you this clue that we are not closing our minds, we are looking at ways in which experiments can happen in the digital world and cryptocurrency."

Rather than sitting on the side-lines, investors and stakeholders want to make the best of proliferating the digital coin ecosystem until the government introduces the ban on "private" cryptocurrency and announced sovereign digital currency.

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[ailtrahq]

Friday is Bitcoin options expiry day, and a massive tranche of contracts is set to go today. Crypto markets are enjoying a rare day in the green, but will the big expiry have an impact? On September 29, around 118,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire with a notional value of a whopping $3.2 billion. The end-of-the-month expiry is usually a big one, and September will dwarf previous weeks’ expiry events.  Big Bitcoin Options Expiry  The max pain point for today’s big batch of expiring Bitcoin options contracts is $26,500. This is now lower than the spot BTC price, which topped $27,000 a few hours ago.  The price level with the most open contracts is max pain, and it’s also the level where most losses occur when the contracts expire. The put/call ratio is 0.58, meaning almost two-thirds of today’s expiring contracts are calls (longs).  Greeks Live noted that this is a quarterly delivery, adding this year’s Q3 is as flat as in previous years. Moreover, the third quarter is generally the least active period, and “Put’s position share is significantly lower compared to weekly deliveries.”  “Liquidity has continued to deteriorate of late, with large position shifting being the main trading driver this week. With delivery just around the corner, IV continues its downward trend.” IV is implied volatility which measures expected future volatility derived from the expiring derivatives contracts. The downtrend indicates that the market consolidation and low volumes will likely continue for a while. Bitcoin options OI. Source: X/@GreeksLive Big Day For ETH Contracts  In addition to Bitcoin options, today also marks the expiration of 1.1 million Ethereum contracts. These have a notional value of $1.8 billion and a max pain point of $1,650 which is exactly where ETH is trading at the time of writing. The put/call ratio for the Ethereum contracts is 0.46. Ethereum options OI. Source: X/@GreeksLive Crypto markets are experiencing a rare day in the green, with the total cap climbing 2% on the day to reach $1.11 trillion. BTC topped $27,000 in late trading on Thursday but has already cooled and dropped back to $26,958.  Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 2.8% on the day to reach $1,651. ETH momentum may have been driven by the premise of the first futures ETFs being launched in the US next week.  Source

[thankskenpenders]

Archie presents Ken Penders’ Knuckles the Echidna: A Postmortem

At long last, we’ve come to the end of the Knuckles solo series. Again, this is far from the end of the Penders Knuckles stories, but he no longer gets a whole series to himself. And thank God for that

While a 32 issue run (or really, 35, counting the first miniseries) might pale in comparison to Sonic’s nearly 300 issues, it’s a pretty impressive feat. That’s a lot of comics! A lot of series these days don’t get to enjoy runs that long. Hell, a lot are lucky to even last a year. And assuming that’s 22 pages of story in each issue, that means Penders got a whopping 770 pages of Knuckles comics where he got to do whatever he wanted

What did Penders spend those 770 pages doing? Well, he sure introduced a lot of new echidnas, that’s for damn sure. Let’s break down the Knuckles series arc by arc and briefly summarize what each one actually contributed to the world of Archie Sonic

Sonic’s Friendly Nemesis Knuckles miniseries #1-3

Characters Introduced: Enerjak. Knuckles also first meets Archimedes, who had been previously set up

Summary: Knuckles meets and begins to work together with Archimedes, who he inexplicably trusts right away. Enerjak comes back and announces he still wants to take over the world. Knuckles beats him up

Lasting Impact: Archimedes and Enerjak/Dimitri stick around as important-ish characters

Knuckles #1-3: The Dark Legion miniseries

Characters Introduced: The Dark Legion, Kragok, Steppenwolf, Christopholes, Menniker

Summary: The Dark Legion returns. The founding of the Brotherhood of Guardians is touched upon, as is their dumb pro-/anti-technology feud with the Dark Legion. Locke uses some sort of Chaos Emerald magic from afar to stop the Legion’s guns from firing so Knuckles can beat them up

Lasting Impact: The Dark Legion and the Brotherhood would be major players for the rest of the story

Knuckles #4-6: Lost Paradise

Characters Introduced: Julie-Su, Lara-Le, Remington, Helmut von Stryker, Gerbil, Hawking, Sabre, Wynmacher, some other fire ant whose name I forget

Summary: Ex-Dark Legionnaire Julie-Su suddenly defects from her faction to seek out Knuckles, because they “soul-touched” and now they’re destined to be lovers or something. Echidnaopolis suddenly comes back because reasons, and boy do they sure still have a lot of technology for people who said they renounced it. The dingoes are apparently evil fascists, and Hawking explains how racist he is to Knuckles.

Lasting Impact: Julie-Su and many of the characters here become mainstays in Knuckles’ supporting cast, and obviously Echidnaopolis becomes the main setting of the comic

#7-9: Dark Vengeance

Characters Introduced: The Echidna High Council, High Councilor Pravda

Summary: Enerjak comes back (again) and immediately becomes the new leader of the Dark Legion. Hawking is on life support. Enerjak kills Knuckles, but then the Ancient Walkers bring him back so he can be a Christ metaphor. Enerjak is defeated and turns back into Dimitri, who ages rapidly. Mammoth Mogul shows up so he can be trapped in the Master Emerald in the following Sonic issue

Lasting Impact: Dimitri’s old now

#10-12: The Other Road Taken

Characters Introduced: The Lost Tribe, Yanar, Athair’s mom (I forget her name), Rob O’ the Hedge and friends, Mari-An, Zax, Raynor, Gala-Na. Athair makes his first appearance in a Knuckles comic

Summary: The Lost Tribe is introduced. They’ve apparently been searching for the ancient echidna homeland of Albion in a big caravan for centuries. The Day of Fury happens, which doesn’t amount to much here compared to the literal apocalypses that share the title in the lore. They make a pit stop over in Snottingham in the Sonic series for some Robin Hood shenanigans, then Knuckles walks on water to lead them to Albion and continue being a Christ metaphor

Lasting Impact: These characters and locations are EVENTUALLY revisited, but not in the remainder of the Knuckles solo series

#13-15: The Chaotix Caper

Characters Introduced: Harry the cab driver, Mello (while dying), Unnamed(?) Echidna Doctor and Nurse, Downtown Ebony Hare, his fox girlfriend, his bulldog goon, the scientist guy who was making the drugs, Charmy’s family, Saffron, Jeepers the Bee Butler, a bear biker gang, Bimmy

Summary: Charmy’s apparent best friend Mello dies of a drug overdose. To investigate, the Chaotix all go to an amusement park, eat the drug-laced food, trip balls, and almost die. Charmy’s past is expanded upon so that he can then go home and get written out of the series. Knuckles starts to show off his Chaos powers

Lasting Impact: Harry sorta stuck around. We know more about Charmy, who is now gone

#16-18: Reunions, Deep Cover

Characters Introduced: Tobor, Moritori Rex, Spectre, Sojourner, Thunderhawk, Tobor’s family

Summary: Knuckles finds out his mom is getting married to Wynmacher. We find out that Lara-Le had major problems with the way Locke raised Knuckles, which goes nowhere. The Brotherhood convenes. We find out that one of them has been replaced with someone evil for years through one of the dumbest twists in the history of these comics. Knuckles beats up Kragok in jail, then Kragok and Tobor fuck off into a “quantum beam,” apparently killing them both. I didn’t even realize they died when I first read this. That may be a retcon

Lasting Impact: Tobor and Kragok died I guess. Lara-Le and Wynmacher’s marriage is teased

#19-21: The Forbidden Zone

Characters Introduced: Prince Elias Acorn, Queen Alicia Acorn, the bulldog colonel and his wife, a baby

Summary: Geoffrey and pals show up from the main series to rescue the Queen, only to walk right up to the Acorn family compound on Angel Island with no trouble and meet Sally’s long lost brother Elias, who nobody knew about. The Queen, meanwhile, is in a pod. Locke and Lara-Le meet up and he tries to kiss her for some mindboggling reason. Knuckles gets mad about all the secrets and finally meets the Brotherhood, but his dad isn’t there at the time. He also fights Moritori Rex (fake Tobor), who gets away 

Lasting Impact: Elias would become quite important... over in the Bollers stories in the main series. He had nothing to do with Knuckles.

#22-24: Dark Alliance

Characters Introduced: Lien-Da, Benedict, Xenin

Summary: Echidna/dingo tensions rise in the runup to the election. Dimitri is a cyborg now. Lien-Da is apparently the new leader of the Dark Legion, and she kidnaps and brainwashes the High Councilor so they can rig the election. Tons and tons and tons of tasteless allusions to Nazi Germany and the Holocaust are made. Knuckles shows off his Chaos powers a little more. The fact that Remington is Kragok’s son is alluded to, but Penders never actually remembered to reveal this in a comic

Lasting Impact: None

#25: Childhood’s End

Characters Introduced: Harlan, Rembrandt, Aaron, one of Robotnik’s ancestors

Summary: Knuckles finally finds his dad... because he didn’t run away fast enough when Knuckles spotted him. Locke tells him the baby microwave story. He also tells him about a vision of the future he had, which scared him into doing all the horrible things he did, but this future never actually comes to pass in the comics. Knuckles immediately forgives his dad for experimenting on him

Lasting Impact: Locke’s not hiding from Knuckles anymore

#26-28: The First Date (feat. Friend in Need)

Characters Introduced: Raynor (not to be confused with the other echidna named Raynor), a bunch of nameless furry girls for Vector to ogle; Nic the Weasel, the real Fiona Fox, Ray the Flying Squirrel

Summary: Julie-Su is mad at Knuckles, so she goes out with some other guy for half a day. Vector tries to get laid and acts like an incel. Locke gives Knuckles the talk. Knuckles finally actually asks Julie-Su out, then has his 16th birthday party. In the backup story, Mighty, Nic, and Fiona rescue Ray from a time anomaly, and Fiona’s past is explained

Lasting Impact: Knuckles and Julie-Su are dating now. Nic, Fiona, and Ray stuck around as important characters in the main series

#29: My Special Friend

Characters Introduced: None (but this is only one issue)

Summary: Sally tries to get help from the Brotherhood now that Robotnik is back in the main series, but they refuse because Sally won’t use guns. Knuckles is a centrist who won’t firmly side with Sally, so she leaves angrily. Along the way, Sally rationalizes her dad’s attempt at Robian genocide

Lasting Impact: None

#30-32: King of the Hill (feat. Espio the Chameleon)

Characters Introduced: Monk, Hunter, Snowpidgeon, Aryu One-Two; Barney, Liza, and several other unimportant chameleons

Summary: Knuckles’ childhood bully, a large purple gorilla, returns to Angel Island after being yeeted into the ocean by the Brotherhood years ago. A human hunter named Hunter shows up to reenact The Most Dangerous Game. Monk falls during the fight and dies. Hunter is captured. In the backup story, Espio has a run-in with the roboticized Valdez, his apparent best friend, who he then murders

Lasting Impact: Hunter eventually made a minor appearance in a Bollers story years later. Valdez dies

Are you noticing a trend? Things keep happening in these stories, but it rarely has much of an impact. One of the Guardians was a traitor all along? Eh, doesn’t affect much. The Dark Legion candidate in the election ends up being a robot and dies? Eh, they had a replacement ready--but also, the election didn’t matter anyway.

Rarely do we learn anything of value about the characters. Knuckles doesn’t grow much as a person, and he never gets much of a personality. Julie-Su’s whole life revolves around being soul bound to Knuckles with only the faintest hint of her own personality. The Chaotix never contribute anything of value. When something comes up to make us question Locke and the Brotherhood, Penders then goes “No, no, it’s fine. Don’t worry about it.”

Supporting characters and subplots that go nowhere keep getting introduced just so it can feel like a lot is going on, but it’s all shallow. Knuckles has like 12 grandpas, most of whom are still alive, and only maybe three of them are distinct in any way. They all just talk like Penders, just like every character in these comics (except for Vector, who gets to be Urban). Things just keep happening around Knuckles, often without his actual involvement, while Penders says that every other arc is the biggest most important thing that’s ever happened.

It’s the oldest trick in comics. End on a cliffhanger. Say that NEXT ISSUE something interesting will DEFINITELY happen. Promise that the story is going somewhere. Just keep buying more issues! But the payoff never comes

While Sonic’s better stories have him sprinting around the world, the Knuckles series just plops him down on a treadmill for 35 issues. In the background, he’s listening to a boring documentary about echidna lore and genealogies

His life is in shambles

[so1vitur-ambu1ando]

50 Question Tag

I have been tagged by @cuntkween for a whopping 50 question tag lol sorry for the delayed response dude! thanks though :)

1. What is the colour of your hairbrush? its cherry red

2. Name a food you never ever eat. i don’t like pork. pineapple and ham DOES NOT belong on pizza I’m sorry I don’t make the rules I just enforce them

3. Are you typically too warm or too cold? Too hot. always sweating. i’m sweating right now

4. What were you doing 45 minutes ago? reading and eating salmon

5. What is your favourite candy bar? i do enjoy a Reese's cup

6. Have you ever been to a professional sports game? nope. i don’t care for sports

7. What is the last thing you said out loud? You’re a good lad Griffin

8. What is your favourite ice cream? Vanilla bean

9. What was the last thing you had to drink? Canada Dry

10. Do you like your wallet? I do! its a timberland leather wallet and very durable

l11. What was the last thing you ate? salmon and strip steak

12. Did you buy any new clothes last weekend? no :( i haven’t bought new clothes in a hot minute. i need more money to buy new clothes honestly

13. The last sporting event you watched? again i don’t like sports lol

14. What is your favorite flavor of popcorn? i don’t like popcorn

15. Who is the last person you sent a text message to? uhhh my brother in law because we were trading memes lol

16. Ever go camping? i have a decade of camping and hiking experience but haven’t been able to do so in the last few years due to not having the time or money to travel

17. Do you take vitamins? I take probiotics and a multivitamin everyday

18. Do you go to church every Sunday? gross

19. Do you have a tan? not currently lmao i will this summer though

20. Do you prefer Chinese food over pizza? nah 

21. Do you drink your soda with a straw? yes

22. What color socks do you usually wear? all of them are black or dark colors only

23. Do you ever drive above the speed limit? who hasn’t every now and then

24. What terrifies you? The ocean definitely. that vast empitiness underwater freaks me out dude

25. Look to your left, what do you see? Books

26. What chore do you hate most? mowing the lawn

27. What do you think of when you hear an Australian accent? cool :D

28. What’s your favorite soda? Pepsi

29. Do you go in a fast food place or just hit the drive? Drive thru

30. What is your favourite number? 13

31. Who’s the last person you talked to? In person? My little brother

32. Favourite cut of beef? you guys know your cuts of beef?

33. Last song you listened to? The Epic of Gilgamesh in Sumerian. no seriously it’s amazing

34. Last book you read? The Stormlight Archive: Words of Radiance

35. Favourite day of the week? Saturday

36. Can you say the alphabet backwards? that’s too much work for my two brain cells

37. How do you like your coffee? black with honey

38. Favourite pair of shoes? my under armour trail shoes

39. The time you normally get up? 12ish

40. What do you prefer, sunrise or sunsets? Sunset

41. How many blankets on your bed? 3

42. Describe your kitchen plates. ehh circular with sunflowers because they’re my moms and the kitchen is sunflower themed kinda

43. Describe your kitchen at the moment? fairly clean

44. Do you have a favourite alcoholic drink? yaeger, captain morgan’s long island iced tea, bourban and dr pepper, yuengling lager

45. Do you play cards? Nope

46. What colour is your car? grey

47. Can you change a tyre? of course

48. Your favourite state? anywhere that it rains or with forests

49. Favourite job you’ve had? my first job working at a local bowling alley. it was a lot of fun

50. How did you get your biggest scar? i broke my left leg and bone pierced the skin. they had to cut around the wound to clean it and move the bone back into place during surgery and the resulting scar is in the shape of a lightning bolt and its really cool looking

im not tagging anyone but if you choose to do this tag me so i can see your answers!

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.

Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.

That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.14

If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.) So if you’re not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.

One last parallel to 2016 — when some models gave Clinton as high as a 99 percent chance of winning — is that FiveThirtyEight’s forecast tends to be more conservative than others. (For a more complete description of our model, including how it is handling some complications related to COVID-19, please see our methodology guide.)

With that said, one shouldn’t get too carried away with the comparisons to four years ago. In 2016, the reason Trump had a pretty decent chance in our final forecast was mostly just because the polls were fairly close (despite the media narrative to the contrary), close enough that even a modest-sized polling error in the right group of states could be enough to give Trump a victory in the Electoral College.

The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.

Let’s briefly expand on the points I made above.

Biden’s lead is pretty impressive

In this article — partly as a corrective against what I see as overconfident assessments elsewhere — I’m mostly focused on the reasons why Trump’s chances are higher than they might appear. But we should be clear: Trump’s current position in the polls is poor.

Biden is currently ahead in our polling averages in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio and in the second congressional district in Nebraska — all places that Clinton lost in 2016. If he won those states (and held the other states Clinton won), that would be enough to give him 352 electoral votes. He’s also within roughly 1 percentage point of Trump in Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Maine’s second congressional district. If he won those, too, he’d be up to a whopping 412 electoral votes.

It’s important to remember that the uncertainty in our forecast runs in both directions. There’s the chance that Trump could come back — but there’s also the chance that things could get really out of hand for him. Our model thinks there’s a 19 percent chance that Biden will win Alaska, for example, and a 13 percent chance that he will win South Carolina. The model also gives Biden a 30 percent chance of a double-digit win in the popular vote, which would be the first time that happened since 1984.

But there are downside scenarios for Biden.

Polls often change substantially between now and November

Every day, my colleague Nathaniel Rakich tweets out a list of what our national polling average would have looked like at this stage in past campaigns. And it can be a pretty wild ride. Here is Tuesday’s version, for instance.

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 84 days until E-Day:

2020: Biden+8.3 2016: Clinton+6.6 2012: Obama+0.5 2008: Obama+2.6 2004: Kerry+2.5 2000: Bush+10.0 1996: Clinton+11.3 1992: Clinton+20.1 1988: Dukakis+5.6 1984: Reagan+16.0 1980: Reagan+22.1 1976: Carter+26.6

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) August 11, 2020

Three of the candidates leading in national polls at this point — Michael Dukakis in 1988, George W. Bush in 2000, and John Kerry in 2004 — did not actually win the popular vote. Bush blew a 10-point lead, in fact, which is larger than Biden’s current advantage. (Luckily for Bush, he won the Electoral College.) In other cases, the polls at this point “called” the winner correctly, but the margins were way off. Jimmy Carter eventually beat Gerald Ford by just 2.1 percentage points — not the 26.6-point lead he had at this point in the campaign. Bill Clinton won by 5.6 points — not 20.1 points. And Barack Obama won a considerably more commanding victory in 2008 than polls at this point projected.

Now, there are some mitigating factors here. Some of these polls were taken at the height of a candidate’s convention bounce, although there are ways to try to correct for those. And in general, polls have become less volatile over time, probably because increased polarization means there are fewer swing voters than there once were. The polls have been particularly stable so far this year, in fact.

But while there are some factors that reduce uncertainty, there are other factors that increase it.

COVID-19 is a big reason to avoid feeling overly confident about the outcome

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 150,000 fatalities and has upended pretty much every American’s life, and Trump’s approval ratings for his handling of it have been awful.

But to the extent this is an election about COVID-19, there’s the possibility that the situation could improve between now and November. Cases have recently begun to come down after an early-summer spike, and recent economic data has shown improvement there, too. There’s also the possibility that a vaccine could be approved — or rushed out — by November, though it’s highly unlikely it could be widely distributed by then.

How to account for this? No, we aren’t building a COVID-19 projection model. (It’s really hard.) But we have built an “uncertainty index” that essentially governs the margin of error in our forecast. It contains eight components, two of which are very high because of COVID-19. Specifically, these are the high volatility in recent economic data, and the volume of major news events, as measured by the number of full-width New York Times headlines. There’s more news this year — not just about COVID-19, but the protests around police brutality, Trump’s impeachment earlier this year, etc. — than in any recent election campaign.

We also expect turnout to be harder to predict this year based on primary elections held during the pandemic that had highly variable turnout — which, in turn, could lead to more polling error. So even if the polls don’t change that much between now and November, that could create some additional uncertainty on Election Day. See the methodology guide for more on how we handle COVID-19.

But the other components of the uncertainty index are low, pointing toward a stable campaign. For instance, polarization is high, poll movement so far has been limited, and there aren’t that many undecided voters; the index accounts for all of those things.

In fact, the uncertainty index points toward the overall uncertainty going into November being about average relative to past presidential campaigns. So our model isn’t necessarily saying that things are going to get crazy, although they could. But it’s also saying you shouldn’t necessarily expect highly stable campaigns like 2012 to be the new normal in the time of COVID-19. (And keep in mind that 2016 was a pretty volatile campaign, too, even without COVID-19.) Empirically, the polls can move quite a bit from August to November, more than you might expect intuitively!

There are some sources of uncertainty that the model doesn’t account for, however. We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.

It’s hard to know what the “fundamentals” say

I’ve long been critical of models that use economic “fundamentals” to try to predict election results, mostly because — although they claim to be highly precise — they haven’t actually been very good at predicting the outcome of an election where they don’t already know the results.

And those models are especially likely to have problems this year because of highly variable economic data. One model based on second quarter GDP projects Trump to win -453 (negative 453!) electoral votes, for example. But if you built a model based on third-quarter GDP, which is expected to be highly positive, it might predict a Trump landslide.

This isn’t to say that we don’t employ a fundamentals forecast of our own. We do, but it’s much less confident than others, and it receives relatively little weight in the overall forecast. It also isn’t currently that bad for Trump. In fact, it essentially predicts the popular vote to be roughly tied. Why?

Although three of the economic factors we use in the model (jobs, spending, manufacturing) have been terrible, a fourth component (income) has been very strong because of government subsidies in the form of the CARES Act, though that could change if stimulus payments lapse. The fifth and sixth components, inflation and the stock market, have also been reasonably favorable.

Most of the variables that declined are now improving, and are expected to continue to improve. (Our model projects what the economy will look like by November rather than relying on current data.)

High polarization potentially blunts the impact of a poor economy.

Trump is an elected incumbent, and elected incumbents are usually favored for reelection.

We extended our analysis back to elections since 1880 (!) to expand the sample size, and found the relationship between the economy and the election likely isn’t as strong as other models claim, anyway.

In other words, our forecast thinks it’s far from obvious that the economy will doom Trump, especially if he can tell a story of recovery by November. Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings on the economy are still fairly good, so our model seems to be doing a reasonably good job of capturing how voters actually feel about the economy.

Another way to look at it is that our model is just saying that, in a highly polarized environment, the race is more likely than not to tighten in the stretch run. Empirically, large leads like the one Biden has now tend to dissipate to some degree by Election Day. And if the race does tighten…

Trump appears to have an Electoral College advantage again

Our model says there’s an 81 percent chance that Biden wins the popular vote — compared to his 71 percent chance in the Electoral College. That means there’s about a 10 percent chance that Trump again wins the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. (Conversely, the model puts the chance that Biden wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote at only around 1 in 750.)

That reflects the fact that the tipping-point state — the state that would provide the decisive 270th electoral vote — is somewhat to the right of the national popular vote. More specifically, our projection as of Tuesday had Biden winning the popular vote by 6.3 percentage points nationally, but winning the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, by a smaller margin, 4.5 percentage points:

The Electoral College could once again help Trump

Forecasted vote margin in battleground states and lean relative to the nation, from FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast as of Aug. 11

State forecasted vote margin Lean relative to nation New Mexico D+11.8 D+5.5 Virginia D+10.6 D+4.3 Colorado D+9.2 D+2.9 Maine statwide D+8.2 D+1.9 Michigan D+6.9 D+0.6 New Hampshire D+6.4 D+0.1 National D+6.3 EVEN Nevada D+6.2 R+0.1 Minnesota D+4.7 R+1.6 Pennsylvania D+4.7 R+1.6 Wisconsin* D+4.5 R+1.8 Florida D+3.2 R+3.1 Nebraska 2nd District D+0.9 R+5.4 Arizona D+0.8 R+5.5 North Carolina D+0.3 R+6.0 Ohio R+1.0 R+7.3 Georgia R+2.8 R+9.1 Maine 2nd District R+3.9 R+10.2 Iowa R+4.3 R+10.6 Texas R+4.4 R+10.7

* Wisconsin is the tipping-point state as of Aug. 11.

That 1.8-point gap is actually smaller than what Clinton experienced in 2016, when there was about a 3-point gap between her losing margin in Wisconsin (which was also the tipping-point state in 2016) and her winning margin in the national popular vote. This analysis is a simplification, too. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the outlook, so the tipping-point state could easily turn out to be Florida or Pennsylvania or something more unexpected like North Carolina.

Still, as a rough rule-of-thumb, perhaps you can subtract 2 points from Biden’s current lead in national polls to get a sense for what his standing in the tipping point states looks like. Add it all up, and you can start to see why the model is being fairly cautious. Biden’s current roughly 8-point lead in national polls is really more like a 6-point lead in the tipping point states. And 6-point leads in August are historically not very safe. That margin is perhaps more likely than not to tighten and at the very least, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty about what COVID-19 and the rest the world will look like by November.

Biden is in a reasonably strong position: Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in. And his chances will improve in our model if he maintains his current lead. But for the time being, the data does not justify substantially more confidence than that.