#50% target by 2030

[reasonsforhope]

Here's the top 2 stories from each of Fix The News's six categories:

1. A game-changing HIV drug was the biggest story of 2024

In what Science called the 'breakthrough of the year', researchers revealed in June that a twice-yearly drug called lenacapavir reduced HIV infections in a trial in Africa to zero—an astonishing 100% efficacy, and the closest thing to a vaccine in four decades of research. Things moved quick; by October, the maker of the drug, Gilead, had agreed to produce an affordable version for 120 resource-limited countries, and by December trials were underway for a version that could prevent infection with just a single shot per year. 'I got cold shivers. After all our years of sadness, particularly over vaccines, this truly is surreal.'

2. Another incredible year for disease elimination

Jordan became the first country to eliminate leprosy, Chad eliminated sleeping sickness, Guinea eliminated maternal and neonatal tetanus, Belize, Jamaica, and Saint Vincent & the Grenadines eliminated mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis, India achieved the WHO target for eliminating black fever, India, Viet Nam and Pakistan eliminated trachoma, the world’s leading infectious cause of blindness, and Brazil and Timor Leste eliminated elephantiasis.

15. The EU passed a landmark nature restoration law

When countries pass environmental legislation, it’s big news; when an entire continent mandates the protection of nature, it signals a profound shift. Under the new law, which passed on a knife-edge vote in June 2024, all 27 member states are legally required to restore at least 20% of land and sea by 2030, and degraded ecosystems by 2050. This is one of the world’s most ambitious pieces of legislation and it didn’t come easy; but the payoff will be huge - from tackling biodiversity loss and climate change to enhancing food security.

16. Deforestation in the Amazon halved in two years

Brazil’s space agency, INPE, confirmed a second consecutive year of declining deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. That means deforestation rates have roughly halved under Lula, and are now approaching all time lows. In Colombia, deforestation dropped by 36%, hitting a 23-year low. Bolivia created four new protected areas, a huge new new state park was created in Pará to protect some of the oldest and tallest tree species in the tropical Americas and a new study revealed that more of the Amazon is protected than we originally thought, with 62.4% of the rainforest now under some form of conservation management.

39. Millions more children got an education

Staggering statistics incoming: between 2000 and 2023, the number of children and adolescents not attending school fell by nearly 40%, and Eastern and Southern Africa, achieved gender parity in primary education, with 25 million more girls are enrolled in primary school today than in the early 2000s. Since 2015, an additional 110 million children have entered school worldwide, and 40 million more young people are completing secondary school.

40. We fed around a quarter of the world's kids at school

Around 480 million students are now getting fed at school, up from 319 million before the pandemic, and 104 countries have joined a global coalition to promote school meals, School feeding policies are now in place in 48 countries in Africa, and this year Nigeria announced plans to expand school meals to 20 million children by 2025, Kenya committed to expanding its program from two million to ten million children by the end of the decade, and Indonesia pledged to provide lunches to all 78 million of its students, in what will be the world's largest free school meals program.

50. Solar installations shattered all records

Global solar installations look set to reach an unprecedented 660GW in 2024, up 50% from 2023's previous record. The pace of deployment has become almost unfathomable - in 2010, it took a month to install a gigawatt, by 2016, a week, and in 2024, just 12 hours. Solar has become not just the cheapest form of new electricity in history, but the fastest-growing energy technology ever deployed, and the International Energy Agency said that the pace of deployment is now ahead of the trajectory required for net zero by 2050.  

51. Battery storage transformed the economics of renewables

Global battery storage capacity surged 76% in 2024, making investments in solar and wind energy much more attractive, and vice-versa. As with solar, the pace of change stunned even the most cynical observers. Price wars between the big Chinese manufacturers pushed battery costs to record lows, and global battery manufacturing capacity increased by 42%, setting the stage for future growth in both grid storage and electric vehicles - crucial for the clean flexibility required by a renewables-dominated electricity system. The world's first large-scale grid battery installation only went online seven years ago; by next year, global battery storage capacity will exceed that of pumped hydro.

65. Democracy proved remarkably resilient in a record year of elections

More than two billion people went to the polls this year, and democracy fared far better than most people expected, with solid voter turnout, limited election manipulation, and evidence of incumbent governments being tamed. It wasn't all good news, but Indonesia saw the world's biggest one day election, Indian voters rejected authoritarianism, South Korea's democratic institutions did the same, Bangladesh promised free and fair elections following a 'people's victory', Senegal, Sri Lanka and Botswana saw peaceful transfers of power to new leaders after decades of single party rule, and Syria saw the end of one of the world's most horrific authoritarian regimes.

66. Global leaders committed to ending violence against children

In early November, while the eyes of the world were on the US election, an event took place that may prove to be a far more consequential for humanity. Five countries pledged to end corporal punishment in all settings, two more pledged to end it in schools, and another 12, including Bangladesh and Nigeria, accepted recommendations earlier in the year to end corporal punishment of children in all settings. In total, in 2024 more than 100 countries made some kind of commitment to ending violence against children. Together, these countries are home to hundreds of millions of children, with the WHO calling the move a 'fundamental shift.'

73. Space exploration hit new milestones

NASA’s Europa Clipper began a 2.9 billion kilometre voyage to Jupiter to investigate a moon that may have conditions for life; astronomers identified an ice world with a possible atmosphere in the habitable zone; and the James Webb Telescope found the farthest known galaxy. Closer to Earth, China landed on the far side of the moon, the Polaris Dawn crew made a historic trip to orbit, and Starship moved closer to operational use – and maybe one day, to travel to Mars. 

74. Next-generation materials advanced

A mind-boggling year for material science. Artificial intelligence helped identify a solid-state electrolyte that could slash lithium use in batteries by 70%, and an Apple supplier announced a battery material that can deliver around 100 times better energy density. Researchers created an insulating synthetic sapphire material 1.25 nanometers thick, plus the world’s thinnest lens, just three atoms across. The world’s first functioning graphene-based semiconductor was unveiled (the long-awaited ‘wonder material’ may finally be coming of age!) and a team at Berkeley invented a fluffy yellow powder that could be a game changer for removing carbon from the atmosphere.

-via Fix The News, December 19, 2024

[spacetimewithstuartgary]

Journey to a Water World: NASA’s Europa Clipper Is Ready to Launch

Find details about the launch sequences for the orbiter, which is targeting an Oct. 14 liftoff on its mission to search for ingredients of life at Jupiter’s moon Europa.

In less than 24 hours, NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft is slated to launch from the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard a Falcon Heavy rocket. Its sights are set on Jupiter’s ice-encased moon Europa, which the spacecraft will fly by 49 times, coming as close as 16 miles (25 kilometers) from the surface as it searches for ingredients of life.

Launch is set for 12:06 p.m. EDT on Monday, Oct. 14, with additional opportunities through Nov 6. Each opportunity is instantaneous, meaning there is only one exact time per day when launch can occur. Plans to launch Europa Clipper on Oct. 10 were delayed due to impacts of Hurricane Milton.

With its massive solar arrays extended, Europa Clipper could span a basketball court (100 feet, or 30.5 meters, tip to tip). In fact, it’s the largest spacecraft NASA has ever built for a planetary mission. The journey to Jupiter is a long one — 1.8 billion miles (2.9 billion kilometers) — and rather than taking a straight path there, Europa Clipper will loop around Mars and then Earth, gaining speed as it swings past.

The spacecraft will begin orbiting Jupiter in April 2030, and in 2031 it will start making those 49 science-focused flybys of Europa while looping around the gas giant. The orbit is designed to maximize the science Europa Clipper can conduct and minimize exposure to Jupiter’s notoriously intense radiation.

But, of course, before any of that can happen, the spacecraft has to leave Earth behind. The orbiter’s solar arrays are folded and stowed for launch. Testing is complete on the spacecraft’s various systems and its payload of nine science instruments and a gravity science investigation. Loaded with over 6,060 pounds (2,750 kilograms) of the propellant that will get Europa Clipper to Jupiter, the spacecraft has been encapsulated in the protective nose cone, or payload fairing, atop a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket, which is poised for takeoff from historic Launch Complex 39A.

Launch Sequences

The Falcon Heavy has two stages and two side boosters. After the side boosters separate, the core stage will be expended into the Atlantic Ocean. Then the second stage of the rocket, which will help Europa Clipper escape Earth’s gravity, will fire its engine.

Once the rocket is out of Earth’s atmosphere, about 50 minutes after launch, the payload fairing will separate from its ride, split into two halves, and fall safely back to Earth, where it will be recovered and reused. The spacecraft will then separate from the upper stage about an hour after launch. Stable communication with the spacecraft is expected by about 19 minutes after separation from the rocket, but it could take somewhat longer.

About three hours after launch, Europa Clipper will deploy its pair of massive solar arrays, one at a time, and direct them at the Sun.

Mission controllers will then begin to reconfigure the spacecraft into its planned operating mode. The ensuing three months of initial checkout include a commissioning phase to confirm that all hardware and software is operating as expected.

While Europa Clipper is not a life-detection mission, it will tell us whether Europa is a promising place to pursue an answer to the fundamental question about our solar system and beyond: Are we alone?

Scientists suspect that the ingredients for life — water, chemistry, and energy — could exist at the moon Europa right now. Previous missions have found strong evidence of an ocean beneath the moon’s thick icy crust, potentially with twice as much liquid water as all of Earth’s oceans combined. Europa may be home to organic compounds, which are essential chemical building blocks for life. Europa Clipper will help scientists confirm whether organics are there, and also help them look for evidence of energy sources under the moon’s surface.

More About Europa Clipper

Europa Clipper’s three main science objectives are to determine the thickness of the moon’s icy shell and its interactions with the ocean below, to investigate its composition, and to characterize its geology. The mission’s detailed exploration of Europa will help scientists better understand the astrobiological potential for habitable worlds beyond our planet.

Managed by Caltech in Pasadena, California, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory leads the development of the Europa Clipper mission in partnership with the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. APL designed the main spacecraft body in collaboration with JPL and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama; and NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. The Planetary Missions Program Office at Marshall executes program management of the Europa Clipper mission.

NASA’s Launch Services Program, based at Kennedy, manages the launch service for the Europa Clipper spacecraft, which will launch on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy.

TOP IMAGE: Technicians encapsulated NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft inside payload fairings on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The fairings will protect the spacecraft during launch as it begins its journey to explore Jupiter’s icy... Credit: NASA/Ben Smegelsky

CENTRE IMAGE: A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket with the Europa Clipper spacecraft aboard is seen at Launch Complex 39A as preparations continue for the mission, Sunday, Oct. 13, at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Credit: NASA

LOWER IMAGE: This artist’s concept depicts NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft in orbit at Jupiter as it passes over the gas giant’s icy moon Europa (lower right). Scheduled to arrive at Jupiter in April 2030, the mission will be the first to specifically target Europa for detailed science investigation. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

[beardedmrbean]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Even as she promoted her efforts to boost clean energy, Vice President Kamala Harris said in Tuesday's debate that the Biden-Harris administration has overseen “the largest increase in domestic oil production in history because of an approach that recognizes that we cannot over rely on foreign oil.″

The comment by Harris, a longtime climate hawk who backed the original Green New Deal, surprised supporters and opponents alike — and conflicted with frequent boasts by Harris and President Joe Biden that they are champions in the fight to slow global warming.

After former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Biden-Harris administration reentered the global pact aimed at reducing emissions. The administration also set a target to slash U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and moved to accelerate renewable energy projects and shift away from fossil fuels.

Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist, said it was notable that at a debate in energy-rich Pennsylvania, Harris chose to “brag about something that President Biden has barely acknowledged — that domestic fossil fuel production under the Biden administration is at an all-time high.″ Crude production averaged 12.9 million barrels a day last year, eclipsing a previous record set in 2019 under Trump, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The statement was “another sign of Harris’ sprint to the middle″ on energy policy and other issues, said Donovan, who works with energy industry clients at the Bracewell law and lobbying firm.

Harris went one step further, rebranding the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act — the administration's signature climate law — as a boon to fracking and other drilling, thanks to lease-sale requirements inserted into the bill by independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a key swing vote in the Senate and a strong supporter of the fossil fuel industry.

Harris's comments disappointed some in the environmental community.

“Harris missed a critical opportunity to lay out a stark contrast with Trump and show young voters that she will stand up to Big Oil and stop the climate crisis,'' said Stevie O’Hanlon, a spokesperson for the Sunrise Movement, one of the groups behind the Green New Deal.

“Harris spent more time promoting fracking than laying out a bold vision for a clean energy future,'' O'Hanlon said. “Young voters want more from Harris'' on climate change, she added. “We want to see a real plan that meets the scale and urgency of this crisis.''

Her group is working to turn out young voters, “but we hear people asking every day, ‘What are Democrats going to do for us?’” O'Hanlon said. “To win, Harris needs to show young people she will fight for us.”

Other environmental groups were less critical, citing the looming threat to climate action posed by Trump, who rolled back more than 100 environmental protections during his term as president.

“There is only one presidential candidate who is a champion for climate action and that is Kamala Harris,'' said Alex Glass, speaking for Climate Power, a liberal advocacy group. Harris "laid out a clear vision to invest in clean energy jobs and lower costs for working families,'' Glass said.

By comparison, she said, Trump "will do the bidding of his Big Oil donors.''

Glass cited the conservative Project 2025, written by Trump allies, saying it will put millions of clean-energy jobs at risk and let oil companies "profiteer and pollute.'' Trump has denied a direct connection to Project 2025 but has endorsed some of its key ideas.

Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas industry's top lobbying group, said Harris' comment in support of fracking reflected political reality in the closely contested election. “You have to be for fracking to be elected president in 2024,'' he said. “That's good news for our industry and great news for American consumers.''

Asked why he was so confident about the need to support fracking, Sommers offered a one-word answer: “Pennsylvania.”

Not only is it a key swing state in the election, Pennsylvania also “is the beating heart of the natural gas industry in this country,” Sommers said, second only to Texas in total production.

"You don't win Pennsylvania without supporting fracking, and you don't win the presidency without Pennsylvania,'' Sommers said.

In the debate, Trump disputed Harris's claim that she will not try to ban fracking, but Sommers said he takes Harris at her word and welcomes her support for fracking and oil drilling more generally.

Asked if he was concerned about Harris' past actions suing oil companies, Sommers said no. The oil and gas industry supports 11 million jobs, he said, and the price of gasoline “is determined by economics — supply and demand. There is no man behind the curtain” rigging prices.

As California attorney general, Harris “won tens of millions in settlements against Big Oil and held polluters accountable,'' her campaign says. Her platform includes a promise to ”hold polluters accountable to secure clean air and water for all.''

Trump, meanwhile, has vowed to rescind unspent funds from the climate law and other programs, and said he will target offshore wind projects. He said Harris would move to restrict onshore oil and gas production if elected.

“They’ll go back to destroying our country, and oil will be dead, fossil fuel will be dead,” Trump said.

A president’s power to restrict fracking, even on federal lands, is limited, and barring the practice on private land would require an act of Congress.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

Nearly five years after the City of Vancouver declared a climate emergency, projections show the municipality falling short of its climate target. The update came in an annual report on the city’s efforts to tackle climate change presented to council on Wednesday. “It’s obviously not a problem Vancouver is going to be solving alone, it’s a global problem that demands a global solution, but we do have an important role in that,” said Matt Horne, the city’s manager of climate mitigation.

Continue Reading

Tagging @politicsofcanada

[mariacallous]

In the next few months, Chinese President Xi Jinping will announce his country’s new climate targets. His decision could make or break the Paris Agreement, the landmark treaty—ratified by nearly every country in the world—that aims to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. If the world breaches this critical threshold, it will see major falls in food production, a severe hit to global GDP, and a rise in deadly weather events.

All participating governments are due to submit their 2035 climate targets to the United Nations by next February. The most important will come from the three largest emitters today, which collectively account for more than 50 percent of global emissions: the United States, European Union, and China.

The United States and EU have not reduced emissions fast enough to align with the Paris goals, but they still delivered two-thirds of the 13 percent reduction in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s carbon emissions over the past decade. China, meanwhile, is responsible for more than 90 percent of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions since the Paris Agreement was negotiated in 2015.

The 1.5-degree target has been in danger for a while, but China’s scale and role in driving emissions put the country in the unique position of being able to single-handedly limit warming so that it stays as close to that target as possible. Global emissions need to peak urgently, and that is simply not realistic without China changing course.

Despite this, China appears to be gravitating toward a weak, conservative set of near-term targets. Although Xi has previously pledged that China will become carbon neutral before 2060, recent policy trends indicate that Beijing’s new targets are likely to fall short of what’s needed to realize that 2060 climate vision—and stave off the worst of global warming.

Chinese diplomats often boast about their country’s record of overachieving on climate and energy targets. As Kevin Rudd, the former Australian prime minister, has put it, China’s strategy on climate is “to under-promise and over-deliver.” For example, China far exceeded its 2020 commitment to reduce carbon intensity as well as its wind and solar power capacity targets for 2015 and 2020.

But now, China is looking increasingly likely to miss the 2025 targets that it named in its Paris commitments and elsewhere. These include plans to “strictly limit” coal consumption growth, “strictly control” new coal power projects, and reduce carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP) by 18 percent compared with 2020—all by next year. China’s emissions would need to fall between now and the end of 2025 for the country to reach that target. Yet the carbon intensity target set by China’s Environment Ministry for 2024 leaves room for emissions to rise this year, suggesting that the ministry is not seriously pursuing the 2025 target.

Meanwhile, a flurry of high-level policy documents published in recent months indicates that Beijing is likely to pursue conservative near-term climate goals. The State Council’s plan for controlling carbon emissions only expects them to peak just before 2030, and the Central Committee of the Communist Party only aims for China’s emissions to show a “falling trend” by 2035. Due to the lack of ambition in the medium term, Climate Action Tracker—an independent research group—has determined that China’s policies and targets are “highly insufficient” despite the country’s long-term carbon neutrality target.

Furthermore, China’s National Energy Administration has dropped hints that it is erring on the side of caution when it comes to the climate. Top agency officials have dismissed evidence that emissions could peak several years ahead of the “before 2030” deadline—China’s official target—and proposed energy installation targets that would slow down clean energy deployment. They have also advocated for fossil fuels meeting 30 percent of energy demand growth through 2030.

One reason that regulators tend to be conservative is that bureaucrats’ prospects in climbing the ladder of the Communist Party hinge upon the achievement of policy goals, making lower targets desirable. Ministries are also constrained by the level of climate ambition set from the top; bureaucrats have no control over economic policy priorities, which can have a major impact on emissions, especially when China’s leadership considers an energy-intensive sector the growth driver of the day. For example, Beijing’s favorable treatment toward the petrochemical industry has been a major driver of the sharp rise in coal consumption in recent years.

Yet Chinese policymakers’ unwillingness to take more progressive positions on climate is seemingly at odds with their country’s booming clean energy industry and other promising domestic trends. China’s solar and wind installations nearly doubled in 2023 compared with the year before and have continued to accelerate this year. The nuclear power sector, another important source of low-carbon electricity, is also growing, with 20 new reactors approved for construction from 2022 to 2023, and another 11 so far this year.

At its current rate, the growth in clean energy is sufficient to cover all additional electricity demand at the rate forecasted by the China Electricity Council for the second half of this year. If China continues to add renewable energy at the rate that it did in 2023, it could be on track to triple its renewable energy capacity from 2022 to 2030, in line with the target to triple renewables globally agreed upon at last year’s U.N. climate summit in Dubai.

Driven by clean energy expansion, China’s carbon emissions reportedly started declining in March and have continued to fall since then. Meanwhile, energy planners appear to be slamming the brakes on fossil fuels. Beijing approved hundreds of new coal power plants and coal-based steel plants after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but permits for new coal plants fell by about 80 percent in the first half of 2024 compared with the previous year. In August, Beijing introduced a ban on new steelmaking projects, and no coal-based steel plants have been approved since the start of this year.

Research suggests that China needs to cut emissions by at least 30 percent by 2035, compared with 2023 levels, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. China can achieve meaningful emission reductions by 2035 if it maintains its rate of clean energy deployment. However, policy inertia and conservative thinking risk preventing China from capitalizing on progress that has already been achieved in the real world.

Despite these roadblocks, it is in China’s own interest to make ambitious climate targets. The clean energy sector contributed a record $1.6 trillion to China’s economy in 2023, accounting for 9 percent of the country’s GDP and 40 percent of economic growth. In addition, a weak climate goal from Beijing would affect trade policy; it would increase tensions by undermining China’s domestic market for clean tech, further inviting the ire of countries that are concerned about China’s manufacturing overcapacity and low-cost exports of electric vehicles, solar panels, and other green technology.

A lowball target would also upset Beijing’s diplomatic alliances in climate negotiations. So far, China has been the de facto leader of the developing country bloc in international climate discussions. This has allowed it to resist calls to set climate targets on par with those of richer countries. But that position is increasingly untenable. China is on the cusp of becoming a high-income country and is on track to overtake the EU’s historical carbon dioxide emissions in the next few years to become the second-largest historic emitter after the United States.

In recent U.N. climate talks, the Maldives and Antigua and Barbuda—developing island nations that are part of China’s negotiating bloc and are among the most vulnerable countries to climate impacts—openly voiced their disquiet about China’s lack of commitment to addressing climate change. China’s next target, if not sufficiently ambitious, could lead more countries to break ranks with Beijing’s negotiating alliance, flying in the face of its efforts to portray itself as a “doer in global climate governance.”

To continue to make progress on climate, Xi cannot rely on his bureaucrats to put forward meaningful targets—he must do it himself. Xi and the rest of China’s top leadership will have to balance the growth of their country’s clean energy industry against short-term economic considerations related to fossil fuels. Weak targets that allow the expansion of the fossil-fuel industry would pull the rug out from under the clean energy sectors that have been China’s star economic performers of the past couple years.

China’s leaders are almost certain to wait until the results of the U.S. presidential election to announce their targets, and they will likely feel more pressure in the case of a victory by Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris. The other question is whether China’s other important partners—including the EU, United Kingdom, and other G-20 members—will hold Beijing to a high standard. This will be especially important if former President Donald Trump wins the election.

Until then, the message to China has to be clear: Lip service to multilateralism and global climate action isn’t enough; Paris-aligned climate targets are essential. After Trump was elected in 2016, China vowed to defend the Paris agreement. Now, the country is increasingly at risk of failing to do so. As a recent strategy document for China’s own cabinet reads, “Major countries should focus more on the future of the earth and humanity and act in a responsible manner … thus fulfilling the responsibilities commensurate with their status.”

[saddayfordemocracy]

August 2 is Earth overshoot day 2023 !

Earth Overshoot Day (EOD) marks when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate during that year. 

Today is Earth Overshoot Day 2023, the Earth Overshoot Day calculated every year by Global Footprint Network using data from National Footprint and Biocapacity Accountswhich indicates the official depletion of renewable resources that the planet is able to offer within a year.

This means that today, August 2, humanity has already “finished” all the resources that Nature produces in an entire year and is starting to go into debt. Humanity, with its over 8 billion inhabitants, consumes in excessive quantities, beyond the natural regeneration (and reabsorption) capacities of the planet.

In 1973 Overshoot Day fell on December 3: we were just a few days over our annual budget. In 2003, September 12, in 2013, August 3. The date has always been getting ahead and our ecological debt has grown.

Globally we are consuming the equivalent of 1.7 Planets a year, an ominous figure that is expected to rise to two planets by 2030, based on current trends. In the last 5 years the trend seems to have stabilized, but it is difficult to establish whether this is due to the slowdown of the economy or to decarbonisation efforts. However, the reduction of our “debt” to the planet is still too slow. To achieve the United Nations IPCC goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2010) it would be necessary to move Earth Overshoot Day forward by 19 days per year for next seven years.

According to the WWF there are many solutions that can be adopted at the community level or individually to have a significant impact on the type of future we invest in: for example if we used energy from 75% renewable sources we could move the Overshhot day by 26 days ; halving food waste would save 13 days.

“If up until the 1960s humanity was more or less in balance, the date has moved from year to year up the calendar, to arrive today at the beginning of August. This means that humanity has been in ecological overshoot for over 50 years and the debt we have accumulated amounts to 19 years of planetary production, i.e. what Earth’s ecosystems can regenerate in 19 years. The burden of this debt, which is set to increase, is starting to reduce economic options. The loss of biodiversity, the growing unpredictability of the weather and the depletion of groundwater are just a few symptoms. But overcoming itself is not inevitable. Constantly living beyond the physical possibilities of our planet is a limited possibility in time, we risk an ecological disaster: the goods and services that are the basis of our societies and economies are all produced by functioning and healthy ecosystems. We now have many targeted solutions to reverse the overexploitation of resources and support the regeneration of the biosphere in which we live”.

[rjzimmerman]

Notes: The electricity generation trajectories for wind and solar PV indicate potential generation, including current curtailment rates. However, they do not project future wind and solar PV curtailment, which may be significant in some countries by 2028.

Excerpt from this story from EcoWatch:

With solar leading the way, renewables are on track to generate nearly 50 percent of global electricity this decade. But green energy is still predicted to fall short of the United Nations target of tripling capacity, according to Renewables 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2030, a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

More than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of global renewable capacity is set to be added between now and 2030, which is nearly three times the growth from 2017 to 2023, the report said.

“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for,” said Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director, as Reuters reported. “This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security: it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world.”

Based on today’s governmental policy settings and current market trends, of the world’s renewable capacity installed between 2024 and 2030, almost 60 percent will come from China, a press release from IEA said.

That would mean nearly half the total global renewable power capacity would be in China by 2030, up from a third in 2010.

“Due to supportive policies and favourable economics, the world’s renewable power capacity is expected to surge over the rest of this decade, with global additions on course to roughly equal the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the United States combined,” the press release said.

This decade, solar PV is projected to account for 80 percent of worldwide renewable capacity growth. This is due to the construction of large solar plants and an increase in installations of rooftop solar by households and companies.

The expansion of wind is forecast to double between now and the end of the decade, compared with the period 2017 to 2023.

In nearly every country in the world, solar PV and wind are the least expensive options for adding new electricity generation.

Because of these trends, almost 70 countries that together make up 80 percent of renewable capacity around the world are set to meet or exceed their current renewable goals for 2030.

“The growth is not fully in line with the goal set by nearly 200 governments at the COP28 climate change conference in December 2023 to triple the world’s renewable capacity this decade – the report forecasts global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030,” the press release said. “But IEA analysis indicates that fully meeting the tripling target is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action.”

[darkmaga-returns]

Totally Wasted Wind Power

Bloomberg reports UK Is Paying £1 Billion to Waste a Record Amount of Wind Power

Burgeoning capacity and blustery weather should have driven huge growth in output in 2024. But the grid can’t cope, forcing the operator to pay wind farms to turn off, a cost ultimately borne by consumers. It’s a situation that puts at risk plans to decarbonize the network by 2030 and makes it harder to cut bills. Crucial to the net zero grid target is a massive build-out of renewable power, particularly from wind. Britain has boosted its offshore fleet by 50% in the past five years and is set to double it in the next five, Bloomberg data show. But the grid hasn’t expanded at the same pace. As a result, the operator is increasingly paying wind farms, particularly those in Scotland, not to run. So far this year, the UK has spent more than £1 billion ($1.3 billion) in “congestion costs” to turn off plants that can’t deliver electricity because of grid constraints, and switch on others. Last month for example, when Storm Bert swept across the UK, some of its newest and biggest wind parks were still. Scotland’s £3 billion Seagreen project, owned by SSE Plc and TotalEnergies SE, was shut off. SSE’s Viking development on the Shetland Islands was also closed. Wind vs Gas UK generators usually sell output in advance on the wholesale market. But those transactions don’t take into account the physical limitations of balancing supply and demand in real time. To keep the lights on, the operator steps in, paying some plants to turn off and others that are closer to demand centers to fire up. Often, this means shutting off a far-flung wind farm and starting up a gas-fed plant that’s closer to a city.

[usafphantom2]

Finland acquires JDAM and SDB I weapon systems for its F-35 fighters

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 03/01/2024 - 13:00 in Military

The Patria and the Finnish Defense Forces signed a service agreement to develop the capabilities of Finland's F-35 program, specifically purchases of JDAM and SDB I ammunition.

Major General Jari Mikkonen, Head of the Logistics Command of the Finnish Defense Forces (FDFLOGCOM) signed the contract for the acquisition of JDAM and SDB I ammunition for the F-35 multifunctional fighters on February 29, 2024. The Finnish Minister of Defense authorized the Logistics of the Defence Forces Command to conduct the acquisition.

The object of the acquisition is the JDAM and SDB I systems with related equipment and services in the years 2024–2030. The acquisition is referred to as the Total Package Approach (TPA), which means that, in addition to the JDAM and SDB I pumps, the acquisition includes transport sets of BRU-61 ammunition, training material, manuals, spare parts, accessories, transport services and manufacturer instructions, as well as training services and supplier support. Contains spare parts and support services for manufacturers and suppliers by 2030.

The acquisition contract is in dollars and its indexed maximum price is US$ 96.1 million. Purchase payments will take place during the years 2024-2030.

The acquisition will be carried out in accordance with the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) procedure between the authorities of the USA and Finland, in which the Defense Forces Logistics Command will conclude the acquisition contract with the United States administration.

The JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) is a modular guidance kit for 500, 1,000 or 2,000 pound bombs of the Mark 80 series. In addition to a guidance kit, a fuse or sensor is installed in the pump, depending on the intended use. A bomb equipped with JDAM can perform precision attacks on fixed or mobile targets at short range.

The SDB I (Small Diameter Bomb I) is a glider pump capable of accurately hitting medium-range targets. Thanks to the relatively small size of the pump, a fighter is able to carry a larger number of SDB I bombs at a time.

Guided bombs and glider bombs are part of the weapons acquisition package that allows the Finnish Air Force to have the ability to support other Forces in combat activities. The weapons of the F-35 fighters from Finland will be acquired in stages until the year 2035. The phased implementation of the acquisition of weapons will make it possible to optimize the composition of weapons as the Finnish F-35 program progresses.

"Some of the types of weapons to be purchased can also be used with our current fleet of F/A-18 Hornet. Therefore, when we make the transition to the F-35, we will be able to profit from the skills and experience in systems acquired so far," said the Director of the F-35 Program, Colonel (retired), Henrik Elo.

Tags: Military AviationF-35 Lightning IIIlmavoimat/Finnland Air Force

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. He uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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[reasonsforhope]

"India’s announcement that it aims to reach net zero emissions by 2070 and to meet fifty percent of its electricity requirements from renewable energy sources by 2030 is a hugely significant moment for the global fight against climate change. India is pioneering a new model of economic development that could avoid the carbon-intensive approaches that many countries have pursued in the past – and provide a blueprint for other developing economies.

The scale of transformation in India is stunning. Its economic growth has been among the highest in the world over the past two decades, lifting of millions of people out of poverty. Every year, India adds a city the size of London to its urban population, involving vast construction of new buildings, factories and transportation networks. Coal and oil have so far served as bedrocks of India’s industrial growth and modernisation, giving a rising number of Indian people access to modern energy services. This includes adding new electricity connections for 50 million citizens each year over the past decade. 

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India’s sheer size and its huge scope for growth means that its energy demand is set to grow by more than that of any other country in the coming decades. In a pathway to net zero emissions by 2070, we estimate that most of the growth in energy demand this decade would already have to be met with low-carbon energy sources. It therefore makes sense that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced more ambitious targets for 2030, including installing 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, reducing the emissions intensity of its economy by 45%, and reducing a billion tonnes of CO2. 

These targets are formidable, but the good news is that the clean energy transition in India is already well underway. It has overachieved its commitment made at COP 21- Paris Summit [a.k.a. 2015, at the same conference that produced the Paris Agreement] by already meeting 40% of its power capacity from non-fossil fuels- almost nine years ahead of its commitment, and the share of solar and wind in India’s energy mix have grown phenomenally. Owing to technological developments, steady policy support, and a vibrant private sector, solar power plants are cheaper to build than coal ones. Renewable electricity is growing at a faster rate in India than any other major economy, with new capacity additions on track to double by 2026...

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-via IEA (International Energy Agency), January 10, 2022

Note: And since that's a little old, here's an update to show that progress is still going strong:

-via Economic Times: EnergyWorld, March 10, 2023

[mapsontheweb]

Just a few years ago, the idea of generating power from a century-old reactor was unthinkable. But the US and the EU have committed to cutting greenhouse gas pollution by at least 50% by 2030, and more than 70 nations have set net-zero targets.

by @BBGVisualData

[warcrimecryptid]

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Then stop the Willow project. Fight back. Unionize, March, and petition against these issues. Do not be complicit in the destruction of our only earth. Your silence makes you complicit. Do everything you can. Fight and fight dirty. Am I calling for a complete insurrection? Yes. Am I calling for a coup? Also yes. Am I a little unhinged? Absolutely. But I’m not silent. Your silence is cowardice. Do not complain about the state of the world when you’ve done nothing to contribute to changing it. Silence is surrender. If you must go, go loudly.

Sign the petition at Change.org.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

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[energy-5]

Sustainable Development in Singapore: An Exemplar of Modern Urban Ecology

Strategic Advancement in Green Building: In an ambitious endeavor, Singapore aims for 80% of its buildings to be green-certified by 2030, a significant milestone considering its urban density. Changi Airport, an epitome of this initiative, integrates a myriad of eco-friendly features, including the Rain Vortex, the world's tallest indoor waterfall, enhancing its reputation as the "World's Best Airport" for eight consecutive years.

Solar Energy Initiatives: Singapore's commitment to renewable energy is evident in its solar power achievements. Surpassing 820 megawatt-peak (MWp) in solar capacity at the end of 2022, the nation is on track to reach its 2025 target of 1.5 gigawatt- (GWp).

Enhancements in Public Transportation: Singapore's sustainable transport strategy aims for 75% of peak-hour commutes to be via public transport by 2030. The expansion of the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system and the introduction of eco-friendly buses are pivotal in this endeavor, aiming to reduce reliance on private vehicles and lower carbon emissions.

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Vision of a "City in a Garden": Singapore's approach to urban development harmoniously blends with environmental stewardship, as seen in its goal to plant one million trees by 2030. The iconic Gardens by the Bay, with its Supertrees, symbolizes this blend of ecological innovation and urban living, integrating features like solar energy collection and rainwater harvesting.

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[mariacallous]

Some 50 miles southwest of Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, and strategically located close to a cluster of the island’s top universities, the 3,500-acre Hsinchu Science Park is globally celebrated as the incubator of Taiwan’s most successful technology companies. It opened in 1980, the government having acquired the land and cleared the rice fields,with the aim of creating a technology hub that would combine advanced research and industrial production.

Today Taiwan’s science parks house more than 1,100 companies, employ 321,000 people, and generate $127 billion in annual revenue. Along the way, Hsinchu Science Park’s Industrial Technology Research Institute has given birth to startups that have grown into world leaders. One of them, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), produces at least 90 percent of the world’s most advanced computer chips. Collectively, Taiwan’s companies hold a 68 percent market share of all global chip production.

It is a spectacular success. But it has also created a problem that could threaten the future prosperity of both the sector and the island. As the age of energy-hungry artificial intelligence dawns, Taiwan is facing a multifaceted energy crisis: It depends heavily on imported fossil fuels, it has ambitious clean energy targets that it is failing to meet, and it can barely keep up with current demand. Addressing this problem, government critics say, is growing increasingly urgent.

Taiwan’s more than 23 million people consume nearly as much energy per capita as US consumers, but the lion’s share of that consumption—56 percent—goes to Taiwan’s industrial sector for companies like TSMC. In fact, TSMC alone uses around 9 percent of Taiwan’s electricity. One estimate by Greenpeace has suggested that by 2030 Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing industry will consume twice as much electricity as did the whole of New Zealand in 2021. The bulk of that enormous energy demand, about 82 percent, the report suggests, will come from TSMC.

Taiwan’s government is banking on the continuing success of its technology sector and wants the island to be a leader in AI. But just one small data center, the Vantage 16-megawatt data center in Taipei, is expected to require as much energy as some 13,000 households. Nicholas Chen, a lawyer who analyzes Taiwan’s climate and energy policies, warns that the collision of Taiwan’s commitments to the clean energy transition and its position in global supply chains as a key partner of multinational companies that have made commitments to net-zero deadlines—along with the explosive growth in demand—has all the makings of a crisis.

“In order to plan and operate AI data centers, an adequate supply of stable, zero-carbon energy is a precondition,” he said. “AI data centers cannot exist without sufficient green energy. Taiwan is the only government talking about AI data center rollout without regard to the lack of green energy.”

It is not just a case of building more capacity. Taiwan’s energy dilemma is a combination of national security, climate, and political challenges. The island depends on imported fossil fuel for around 90 percent of its energy and lives under the growing threat of blockade, quarantine, or invasion from China. In addition, for political reasons, the government has pledged to close its nuclear sector by 2025.

Taiwan regularly attends UN climate meetings, though never as a participant. Excluded at China’s insistence from membership in the United Nations, Taiwan asserts its presence on the margins, convening side events and adopting the Paris Agreement targets of peak emissions before 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. Its major companies, TSMC included, have signed up to RE100, a corporate renewable-energy initiative, and pledged to achieve net-zero production. But right now, there is a wide gap between aspiration and performance.

Angelica Oung, a journalist and founder of the Clean Energy Transition Alliance, a nonprofit that advocates for a rapid energy transition, has studied Taiwan’s energy sector for years. When we met in a restaurant in Taipei, she cheerfully ordered an implausibly large number of dishes that crowded onto the small table as we talked. Oung described two major blackouts—one in 2021 that affected TSMC and 6.2 million households for five hours, and one in 2022 that affected 5.5 million households. It is a sign, she says, of an energy system running perilously close to the edge.

Nicholas Chen argues that government is failing to keep up even with existing demand. “In the past eight years there have been four major power outages,” he said, and “brownouts are commonplace.”

The operating margin on the grid—the buffer between supply and demand—ought to be 25 percent in a secure system. In Taiwan, Oung explained, there have been several occasions this year when the margin was down to 5 percent. “It shows that the system is fragile,” she said.

Taiwan’s current energy mix illustrates the scale of the challenge: Last year, Taiwan’s power sector was 83 percent dependent on fossil fuel: Coal accounted for around 42 percent of generation, natural gas 40 percent, and oil 1 percent. Nuclear supplied 6 percent, and solar, wind, hydro, and biomass together nearly 10 percent, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Taiwan’s fossil fuels are imported by sea, which leaves the island at the mercy both of international price fluctuations and potential blockade by China. The government has sought to shield consumers from rising global prices, but that has resulted in growing debt for the Taiwan Electric Power Company (Taipower), the national provider. In the event of a naval blockade by China, Taiwan could count on about six weeks reserves of coal but not much more than a week of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Given that LNG supplies more than a third of electricity generation, the impact would be severe.

The government has announced ambitious energy targets. The 2050 net-zero road map released by Taiwan’s National Development Council in 2022 promised to shut down its nuclear sector by 2025. By the same year, the share of coal would have to come down to 30 percent, gas would have to rise to 50 percent, and renewables would have to leap to 20 percent. None of those targets is on track.

Progress on renewables has been slow for a number of reasons, according to Oung. “The problem with solar in Taiwan is that we don’t have a big area. We have the same population as Australia and use the same amount of electricity, but we are only half the size of Tasmania, and 79 percent of Taiwan is mountainous, so land acquisition is difficult.” Rooftop solar is expensive, and roof space is sometimes needed for other things, such as helicopter pads, public utilities, or water tanks.

According to Peter Kurz, a consultant to the technology sector and a long-term resident of Taiwan, there is one renewable resource that the nation has in abundance. “The Taiwan Strait has a huge wind resource,” he said. “It is the most wind power anywhere in the world available close to a population.”

Offshore wind is under development, but the government is criticized for imposing burdensome requirements to use Taiwanese products and workers that the country is not well equipped to meet. They reflect the government’s ambition to build a native industry at the same time as addressing its energy problem. But critics point out that Taiwan lacks the specialist industrial skills that producing turbines demands, and the requirements lead to higher costs and delays.

Despite the attraction of Taiwan’s west coast with its relatively shallow waters, there are other constraints, such as limited harbor space. There is also another concern that is unique to Taiwan’s geography: The west side of the island faces China, and there are continuing incursions into Taiwan’s territorial waters from China’s coast guard and navy vessels. Offshore wind turbines are within easy rocket and missile range from China, and undersea energy cables are highly vulnerable.

Government critics regard one current policy as needless self-harm: the pledge to shut down Taiwan’s remaining nuclear reactor by next year and achieve a “nuclear free homeland.” It is a pledge made by the current ruling party, the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), and as the deadline approaches, it is a policy increasingly being questioned. Taiwan’s civil nuclear program was started under the military dictatorship of Chiang Kai-shek’s KMT party with half an eye on developing a nuclear weapons program. Taiwan built its first experimental facility in the 1950s and opened its first power plant in 1978. The DPP came into existence in 1986, the year of the Chernobyl disaster, and its decision to adopt a no-nuclear policy was reinforced by the Fukushima disaster in neighboring Japan in 2011.

“I think the DPP see nuclear energy as a symbol of authoritarianism,” said Oung, “so they oppose it.”

Of Taiwan’s six nuclear reactors, three are now shut down, two have not been brought online, and the one functioning unit is due to close next year. The shuttered reactors have not yet been decommissioned, possibly because, in addition to its other difficulties, Taiwan has run out of waste storage capacity: The fuel rods remain in place because there is nowhere else to put them. As some observers see it, politics have got in the way of common sense: In 2018, a majority opposed the nuclear shutdown in a referendum, but the government continues to insist that its policy will not change. Voters added to the confusion in 2021 when they opposed the completion of the two uncommissioned plants.

On the 13th floor of the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Taipei, the deputy director general of Taiwan’s energy administration, Stephen Wu, chose his words carefully. “There is a debate going on in our parliament,” he said, “because the public has demanded a reduction of nuclear power and also a reduction in carbon emissions. So there is some discussion about whether the [shuttered] nuclear plants will somehow function again when conditions are ready.”

Wu acknowledged that Taiwan was nudging against the limits of its current supply and that new entrants to Taiwan’s science and technology parks have to be carefully screened for their energy needs. But he took an optimistic view of Taiwan’s capacity to sustain AI development. “We assess energy consumption of companies to ensure the development of these companies complies with environmental protection,” he said. “In Singapore, data centers are highly efficient. We will learn from Singapore.”

Critics of the government’s energy policy are not reassured. Chen has an alarming message: If Taiwan does not radically accelerate its clean energy development, he warns, companies will be obliged to leave the island. They will seek zero-carbon operating environments to comply with the net-zero requirements of partners such as Amazon, Meta, and Google, and to avoid carbon-based trade barriers such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

“Wind and solar are not scalable sources of zero-carbon energy,” he said. “Nuclear energy is the only scalable, zero-carbon source of energy. But the current laws state that foreign investment in nuclear energy must be capped at 50 percent, with the remaining 50 percent owned by Taipower. Given that Taipower is broke, how could a private investor want to partner with them and invest in Taiwan?”

Chen argues that Taiwan should encourage private nuclear development and avoid the burdensome regulation that, he says, is hampering wind development.

For Kurz, Taiwan’s energy security dilemma requires an imaginative leap. “Cables [carrying offshore wind energy] are vulnerable but replaceable,” he says. “Centralized nuclear is vulnerable to other risks, such as earthquakes.” One solution, he believes, lies in small modular nuclear reactors that could even be moored offshore and linked with undersea cables. It is a solution that he believes the Taiwan’s ruling party might come around to.

There is a further security question to add to Taiwan’s complex challenges. The island’s circumstances are unique: It is a functioning democracy, a technological powerhouse, and a de facto independent country that China regards as a breakaway province to be recovered—if necessary, by force. The fact that its technology industry is essential for global production of everything from electric vehicles to ballistic missiles has counted as a security plus for Taiwan in its increasingly tense standoff with China. It is not in the interest of China or the United States to see semiconductor manufacturers damaged or destroyed. Such companies, in security jargon, are collectively labelled Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” a shield the government is keen to maintain. That the sector depends inescapably on Taiwan’s energy security renders the search for a solution all the more urgent.