#$HG_F

[jeffhirsch]

Copper’s Rally Gaining Momentum as Historically Bullish Season Arrives

Copper tends to make a major seasonal bottom in November/December and then tends to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. This pattern may be due to the buildup of inventories by miners and manufacturers in anticipation of the construction season that usually begins in late winter to early spring. Auto makers are also preparing for the new car model year that often begins in mid- to late summer. Traders can look to go long a May futures contract on or about December 13 and hold until about February 24.

In this trade’s 52-year history, it has worked 34 times for a success rate of 65.4%. The average gain in all years is 5.4%. After four straight years of declines from 2012 to 2015, this trade has been successful in six of the last eight years with solid theoretical gains. Last year, copper was essentially flat from mid-December until mid-March before ripping higher through mid-May. Strictly following the suggested hold period did result in a minor loss, while holding positions longer (which was done in the Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio last year) resulted in well above average gains.

In the accompanying chart, the front-month copper futures weekly price moves (top pane), and seasonal pattern (bottom pane) are plotted. Typical seasonal strength in copper is depicted by a blue arrow and yellow shading in the lower pane of the chart. Last year’s seasonal period is visible in the top pane of the chart. Since copper’s mid-May peak, its trend has generally been lower with a brief surge in September. Copper’s August low appears to have been retested in November and now appears to be beginning a new trend higher. This new positive trend does align well with copper’s typical seasonal pattern.

[two-oaks-farmstead]

Logan ended up with gold in Nogi and liver in Gi. His other teammates, Lance and Jacob did awesome as well! I am so proud of how these kids work and compete, always striving to be their absolute best! We are so thankful for our Kraken Jiu jitsu family and our coaches who work so hard with our kids. #proudmommamoment #bjjlifestyle #krakenjiujitsu https://www.instagram.com/p/CRcSdS-hG_f/?utm_medium=tumblr

[iampjr]

$HG_F #Copper collapsed down through several interesting levels. Not touching this one. https://t.co/HooltwkjqX

$HG_F #Copper collapsed down through several interesting levels. Not touching this one. https://t.co/HooltwkjqX — Patrick Rooney (@patrickrooney) Jun 15, 2021 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js from Twitter https://twitter.com/patrickrooney

[leprivatebanker]

#HG_F #Copper Futures fell about 1.4% out of the balanced price range which occured for several days and may targeting the prior Quarter's VAH close level

#HG_F #Copper Futures fell about 1.4% out of the balanced price range which occured for several days and may targeting the prior Quarter’s VAH close level

Copper Futures fell about 1.4% out of the balanced price range which occured for several days and may targeting the prior Quarter’s VAH close level or the lower bracket low. Copper output in Chile, the world’s largest producer, fell 7% from a year earlier to 394,700 tonnes in February. The lockdown in Shanghai, a major port, threatening global supply chains. Both might be supportive while demand…

[goldsilverreports]

Copper ETF Long Term Bullish Cycles | Gold Silver Reports

Copper ETF Long Term Bullish Cycles | Gold Silver Reports

Firstly the CPER Copper Index Tracking instrument has an inception date of 11/15/2011. There is data in the HG_F copper futures before this going back many years. That shows copper made an all time high on February 15th, 2011 at 4.649. Translated into this instrument, it is mentioned on the monthly chart. The decline from there into the January 2016 lows appeared to have been a double three in…

[heyimsnuffles-blog]

"#NoDownDays" - The Closing Prints - Weekly

“#NoDownDays” – The Closing Prints – Weekly

Sorry about missing last week, I was out of town for the Holiday and never got around to the Closing Prints. There was much of the same this week that has occurred this year and that increases the odds for next week directional moves. Let’s Dive In.

SPX

 The S&P has gone straight up all year over the Trump tax plans and reform which were to be released “soon”. Now they are not going to be…

[forexbeginnersworld]

Cobre ( $HG_F ) Previsão Do Rali Após a Onda de Elliot Televisão

Cobre ( $HG_F ) Previsão Do Rali Após a Onda de Elliot Televisão

[ad_1]

Olá colegas comerciantes. Nesta técnica blog nós vamos falar sobre o Cobre. Como os nossos membros sabem, Cobre incompletas de alta sequências em que o ciclo a partir do dia 19 de Março de baixo. Quebra de 04/16 pico feita em um ciclo de Marcha (1.9715) baixa incompleta para a cabeça. A mercadoria é agora em alta contra o 2.1475 baixo. Consequentemente, nós aconselhamos nossos membros…

[waxroompro]

We got the five new strains going from @puresmokeboutique these five will run through the #indoorgrow from beginning to end. So we are planning kind of a long veg for these maybe but we’ll see what happens 💯 💚 - #growroom #medicalmarijuana #indoorgrow #cannabiscommunity #lovetogrow #homegrown #waxroomfam #flowerroom #vegroom https://www.instagram.com/p/B-VPR7-hG_F/?igshid=ih4yz780g5vs

[jeffhirsch]

Copper’s seasonal rally underway

Copper has a tendency to make a major seasonal bottom in November/December and then a tendency to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. This pattern could be due to the buildup of inventories by miners and manufacturers as the construction season begins in late-winter to early-spring. Auto makers are also preparing for the new car model year that often begins in mid- to late-summer. Traders can look to go long a May futures contract on or about December 13 and hold until about February 24. In this trade’s 47-year history, it has worked 31 times for a success rate of 66.0%. After four straight years of declines from 2012 to 2015, this trade has been successful the last three years with increasing potential gains.

In the chart below, the front-month copper futures weekly price moves and seasonal pattern are plotted. Typical seasonal strength in copper is highlighted in yellow in the lower pane of the chart. Last year’s seasonal period was essentially text-book perfect. Copper did make a lower low in early-January 2019 compared to December’s low and it rallied to highs in April. Unlike last year, copper appears to have already begun its seasonal rally after bottoming in late-August/early September. A trade deal with China, even a modest improvement such as a Phase 1 deal, could boost confidence and produce a corresponding bump in economic growth. Recent rate cuts by the Fed have translated into lower mortgage rates which could also eventually lead to a better housing market outlook and a corresponding rise in copper.

[iampjr]

@Trading_Tech A big move in #copper produced its highest close since July. #HG_F #metals #markets #trading #derivatives https://t.co/tHPJcZTbvz

A big move in #copper produced its highest close since July. #HG_F #metals #markets #trading #derivatives pic.twitter.com/tHPJcZTbvz

— Patrick Rooney (@patrickrooney) December 6, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js from Twitter https://twitter.com/patrickrooney

[jlfmi]

Will Headwinds Put A Roof On Copper Rally?

Copper prices have been red-hot, but the rally may encounter some challenges here.

Of the myriad of markets to scream higher in the week since the presidential election, one of the more high profile rallies has been that of copper. In fact, like most of the industrial metal complex, copper actually started moving a couple weeks prior to the election. So, as happens so often, the industrial metals (i.e., those folks buying them) seemed to discount the improbable election of Donald Trump well ahead of time.

Then again, perhaps the rally had nothing to do with the election. Either way, it does not matter to us. All that matters is what is happening. And what is happening right now is a potentially stiff challenge to the immediate continuation of the copper rally. We make this suggestion for a couple reasons.

First of all, there is price. Using the S&P GSCI Cooper Index (currently at 394), the price of copper is presently testing the following potential resistance levels:

Post-2011 Down Trendline (on a log scale) ~397

23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 2011-2016 Decline ~404

61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of Decline from Dec 2014 Breakdown Pt/May 2015 Peak to Jan 2016 Low ~400

Interestingly, the past 3 days saw the Copper Index break above these resistance levels -- Friday, by 7.5% -- before closing back at or below them. Thus, this area has seemingly been validated now as legitimate resistance.

It’s not only price, however. Looking at trader positioning in copper futures, we see another potential reason for concern. That’s because this past week saw Commercial Hedgers increase their net short position by over 31,000 contracts, the largest increase on record, going back to 1989. Furthermore, their current net short position of roughly 38,000 is their largest net short position since 2005.

Why is this significant? Commercial Hedgers are deemed the “smart money”. Again, this is not because they are always right. They take positions opposite trend-following Speculators, e.g., commodity funds, hedge funds, etc. Thus, during long trends, they can be wrong for some time. However, at important junctures and turning points, they are almost always correctly positioned. That’s one of the benefits of tracking this data published in the CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders report.

And given the Hedgers’ largest net short position in 11 years, it could be a considerable headwind, especially if copper prices begin to sell off. Now, if prices break right through the aforementioned resistance, the unwind in futures positions will not yet be triggered. Thus, the Hedgers’ net short will perhaps continue to get more and more extreme.

The current set of circumstances do warrant caution in this red-hot commodity, however, in our view. And as an FYI, we have posted 2 similar setups in recent weeks involving natural gas and coffee. Nat gas prices greeted our post by dropping more than 25% in the past few weeks. And coffee too has started to come in a bit after our post from a week ago.

So while copper prices have gone through the roof in recent weeks, recent evidence from similar setups across the commodity space would seem to suggest a bit of caution here.

________

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

The commentary included in this blog is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific investment product or service. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

[seeitmarket]

The Precious Metals complex is capping off its best week since early October with Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium adding 3.6% as a group just prior to the open of Friday's trading.    

Gold and Silver are each breaking a 15-month descending trend line, while Platinum is completing a bullish Three Inside Up pattern, marking a successful retest of its own trend line break in January.  Typifying the week's constructive move higher, RSI is just peaking into bullish territory >50 in each case.

By comparison, industrial metals - namely Copper, viewable in the lower-right pane - are getting only a modest lift.  While PMs have a lot of work to do, they are still almost universally derided here.  Even if they aren't bottoming here - a prospect looking increasingly better - the recent double bottom each of them put in place provides a well-defined baseline against which to measure risk and place stops.  Copper, on the other hand, isn't capturing this momentum, with an ascending triangle that favors a corrective over a bottoming scenario.   -- AK

[jeffhirsch]

Copper poised for seasonal rally

Copper has a tendency to make a major seasonal bottom in December and then a tendency to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. This pattern could be due to the buildup of inventories by miners and manufacturers as the construction season begins in late-winter to early-spring. Auto makers are also preparing for the new car model year that often begins in mid- to late-summer. Traders can look to go long a May futures contract on or about December 17 and hold until about February 24. In this trade’s 46-year history, it has worked 30 times for a success rate of 65.2%. After four straight years of declines from 2012 to 2015, this trade has been successful the last two years.

In the above chart, the front-month copper futures weekly price moves and seasonal pattern are plotted. Typical seasonal strength in copper is highlighted in yellow. Last year’s seasonal period was actually tepid. The move off of copper’s December low to its late-December high was greater than the gain over the entire holding period. Copper also spiked in mid-June before succumbing to typical seasonal weakness. Copper has been essentially range bound since late-September. A reduction in Chinese tariffs on imported autos (along with the potential easing of other tariffs) could be a catalyst for copper to begin its seasonal rally soon. Any improvement in the U.S. housing market will also likely support higher prices for copper.