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Deadlock over Article -370 : Election finale

Photo Credit: GQ

The first phase of J-K elections held on September 18 saw 61 % voter turnout. The final phase of polling will be held on October 1. The votes will be counted on October 8.

After six years of central rule, Jammu and Kashmir is holding its first assembly elections since 2014 to democratically elect its first state government after the abrogation of Article 370. 16 - foreign delegates from various countries visited Kashmir to observe the conduct of the electoral process.

Key point to note is the second phase of election in Kashmir saw lower voter in comparison to assembly polls held 2014. With katra having the highest voter turnout at 79.95% while Srinagar having the lowest at 29.24%.

While the election enters it's last phase, the Politics is at its pinnacle in the UT. Endless debate over the statehood of Jammu and Kashmir has Charged the atmosphere with the anticipation over fate of the UT after the elections.

Although Here, we discuss the dead-end over the interpretation of Article 367 of the Indian Constitution, which is going to play crucial role if Congress or other such parties who have promised to restore special provisions of Article 370 to the valley if elected to power.

Maharaja Hari Singh's dilemma amidst coveting tension between India and Pakistan in 1947, led to decision which gave rise to the Instrument of Accession giving India control over certain matters of J-K including defence.

Later the interim government of J-K in 1949, negotiated the special status by joining the Indian Constituent Assembly which provide them their own flag, constitution and criminal code.

Now, about the controversy around the abrogation of special status to J-K. Firstly, what was found to be shady was how the dissolution of constituent assembly of Jammu and Kashmir was dealt with, if it was handled properly there would have been a smooth integration of the state into the Republic of India.

But Nonetheless the catch here is with multiple interpretation and new addition to Article 367.

The new clause added stated that term 'constituent assembly' should be understood as 'legislative assembly' by adding in Article 370 (3). But at that moment of judgement, J-K was under the rule of Article - 356, meant which the legislative assembly and governor of the state, Shall be replaced by Union Parliament and President rule. Therefore, giving the BJP-led parliament pass the resolution from both the houses and amend the article 370 via Constitutional order 272 power granted under the newly constituted article - 370(3) by the President of India discarding the special status to the state.

Interestingly, Article 35A was also affected by the 2019 SC judgement, which defined the erstwhile state's permanent residents. The law curtailed the rights of non-residents in terms of equal opportunity of state employment, acquiring property and settle in Jammu and Kashmir.

Supreme Court with the 5-judge bench had a mixed opinion over the interpretation of article 367. Some agreed the Article 370 was a transitory and temporary provision that should have been dissolved earlier but was not due to the loop-holes in the asymmeteric federal structure of Jammu and Kashmir in 1953 with confusion over its constitent Assembly and legislative Assembly situation. Some concurred with panel saying amendment through back-door should not be permissible. With petitioners challenging the order of 2019 arguing on the basis of Article - 370(1)(a) which has its own inherent intricacies as far as it goes. Thus, the Supreme Court upheld the abrogation and order the Union Government to restore state-hood to Jammu and Kashmir by conducting elections by 30th September, 2024.

The blessed one in the whole event was Ladakh with introduction of Jammu and Kashmir reorganization Act, 2019. The act passed by the Indian Parliament on Aug 5, 2019, allowing the state to be divided into two Union Territories - Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. From a very long time there was a agitation among people of Ladakh demanding it to be a UT as they were neglected and out on a limb as the funds were not available most being diverted to J-K and development being the least priorites with respect to Ladakh people.

Kashmir has been the epicenter of militancy sinces decades which is not a hidden fact due to constant interference in its Politics by Pakistan on its majority population. But since the revocation of article 370 it was made an easy task for Union Government to boast the economy of Kashmir striking a balance in the valley by creating opportunities for general youth to access easy education and job opportunity with good infrastructure and promotion tourism in the valley itself which in turn curbed the militancy.

While it's is still a challenge for the government to rehabilitate the Kashmiri Pandit population there, which were once the heart of the valley.

[rajwillwrite]

Good Deficit, Bad deficit 🧐

While a current account surplus or deficit might seem positive or negative at first glance, the reality is more nuanced. The quality of the imbalance matters more.

A deficit funded by productive investments creates future benefits, while a surplus built on unused savings due to a lack of investment opportunities is a missed chance for growth. For example, India's deficit due to gold imports isn't helpful, and a surplus solely from remittances wouldn't be ideal either.

Looking at successful emerging economies, many with persistent deficits, we see a focus on exports. Oil-rich nations like Russia and Iran have surpluses, while export powerhouses like China and Korea are in a similar boat. Rising stars like Vietnam are also export-oriented. This suggests that building long-term export potential is crucial for India's economic health.

In the short term, India can manage moderate deficits by attracting foreign capital through a business-friendly environment.

Here's some positive news: India's service exports, particularly software, travel, and business services, are growing. Remittances from overseas Indians are also on the rise. This, combined with a surplus of $30.8 billion in the last quarter, paints a promising picture.

The takeaway? Don't get hung up on a surplus or deficit label. Focus on building a strong, export-oriented economy that can attract foreign investment when needed.

References:

1. Remittances are money transfers that migrants send to their families and friends in their home countries. They are an important source of income and foreign exchange for many developing countries, especially those in South Asia.

Remittances can help reduce poverty, improve living standards, support education and health care, and stimulate economic activity.

2. Balance of payments: The balance of payments Statistics in India is a systematic record of India's international economic transactions of residents with the rest of the world on account of merchandise, services, unrequited transfers and transfers of capital.

3. Various print and digital outlets and government websites.

[rajwillwrite]

UnF*uk Your Mind

Most people want to get fit, but most people won't. Most people want to build successful businesses, but the reality is they won't. The reason most people won't do these things is because their brains are f*cked. And if your brains f*cked well, you are f*cked.

In order to build anything great, you must have the ability to focus. Focus on one particular task for hours, days, or weeks. And if your brain is f*cked, how do you expect to do that?

So this is how to unf*ck your brain. 

Part 1: YOU ARE DISTRACTED

I think focus is vital to building anything worthwhile and great. So, what is the definition of focus? It is the ability to dedicate 100% of your attention to one singular task. And so, if you are not focused, you might be paying attention to multiple things. Otherwise known as ‘Distractions'. And quite frankly, we are all losing the ability to focus; we are all distracted. Simply put, we can't do anything more with multiple streams of input. I can already tell you have started checking your notification instead of reading through it with your full attention. And when you do sh*t like that without realizing it, you are brainwashing yourself.

Training your own mind to need overstimulation to function with distraction. So with a brain like that, how the f*uk, are you planning on staying focused?

Part 1.2: REWIRING YOUR BRAIN

Well, you can do one thing: just switch off your phone and leave it there for 24 hours. You will soon find out you are ‘addicted’ not to your phone but to the distraction. And if you continue to feed this addiction, none of the shit I say here will matter. You won't reach your goals. So to stop this addiction, you have to go through a 30-day protocol.

Each day of this protocol is split into 30 minute segments from 1:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., each hour are divided into 30 minute segments. Then, as you go about your 30 days, simply track what you did in each of those 30 minutes. By the end of it, you should have clear data on what pointless crap you do in your life.

E.g.,

pointless shit I do:

1) Video games 

2) Netflix 

3) Scroll to TikTok, Instagram, YouTube

4) Sleep in

5) Smoking

Then all that is left to do is remove that pointless sh*t. It sounds simple, and what have you really got to lose? Just try it out. I mean, really, what do you really have to lose?

Part 2: YOU ARE CONFUSED 

People must know what to do with their lives. This is because they don't know what you want. Because if you know what you want, you can know what to do, but if you only know there are things to be done and you are not confident about it, you are left confused. And this is the stage most people stay at their entire lives. They either never work on anything great because they don't know where to start from or work on the wrong thing at the wrong time their entire lives and have nothing to show for it but regret. And at this stage, I am talking about what is commonly referred to as the ‘Anti-Zone’. Most likely, that is where you are right now. At that stage in your life, you don't know what to do, but you have the desire to do something. But you don't know what or how to get there, so you don't do anything, and that's the ‘ANTI-ZONE’. And to get out of that stage, you need to do one simple thing: you need to enter ‘THE ZONE’.

Part 2.2: THE ZONE

Now, THE ZONE is the place, or, I should rather say, the mental state, that is highly recognized by your favorite athletes, artists or business owners consciously or subconsciously. According to the study back in 1989, it is 'the happiest place a human could be.' So, what is it? Well, most likely, you have experienced it before. It's that feeling you get when you are lost in something, like when you are playing video games or watching those addictive reels on the internet and can't stop scrolling. When you are so deep into the task at hand that the outside world doesn't seem to exist, imagine the feeling when you can experience it all the time. Locked In! Focused with zero distraction. Now that the spot we are aiming to be at is here, where there is no more confusion, just total focus on achieving your goals, and to get there, all you need to do is clearly define the ”something” part. First, where do you actually want to go? No bullshit; don't overcomplicate it, and think until you have your answers. And then, when you have your answers and have clearly defined them, simply figure out the steps to get them done. And as long as you take action on these steps every day, you will remain in your zone until you have reached your destination. Because, think about it, all this ‘zone’ really is a hyper-state of focus. Focus on one specific task, with steady progress being made each hour.

Part 3: DIET 

As humans, we operate inside a system, like when you wake up, go about your day, then go back to sleep, and repeat. Now this system has inputs and outputs. The inputs, like your food and sleep, have a direct effect on the outputs. If you sleep two hours at night, tomorrow you'll perform like sh*t. We all know this, so why do we ignore our diet? I am sure you have opened up a book before, read two lines, and later forgot about what you had just read. That's what happens with your diet's inputs and outputs, because when you eat like sh*t, you are going to think like sh*t. Well, if you think you can build anything great with a brain that thinks like sh*t, well, you know the answer.

So if you are looking to make a change in your life and get a better output, fix your inputs first. Because then you will be well and good at finding your goals and planning your steps to get there. But if you're in a vehicle that's broken, or you have bad inputs, no matter how hard you try, you are not going to get them, and I know it is easy to ignore, but just trust me, if you are struggling, but still trying to give good inputs, then great output will come 10 times easier. And not only that, you will have a clear and unf*cked brain.

[rajwillwrite]

Shining a Light on Disinfection

For centuries, sunlight has been known to possess a natural disinfecting power. The culprit behind this phenomenon lies in the ultraviolet (UV) light portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, which resides just beyond the violet end of visible light. While UV light is generally categorized into UVA, UVB, and UVC based on its wavelength, our sun primarily showers us with UVA and a small amount of UVB rays. While these are beneficial for vitamin D production, prolonged exposure can also lead to skin cancer and cataracts due to their ability to damage cellular DNA.

Ironically, this very same DNA-damaging property of UVC light makes it a potent weapon against bacteria and viruses. Researchers have been exploring this germicidal potential for decades.  A classic experiment conducted in the 1940s placed UV irradiation chambers in classrooms, cleverly circulating the disinfected air through ventilation systems to prevent the spread of measles without directly exposing students to the harmful rays.

Another fascinating experiment involving rodents tested the effectiveness of UV light against tuberculosis. Here, the air supplied to the hamsters was irradiated with UV rays, successfully preventing them from contracting the disease.

However, a major hurdle in utilizing traditional germicidal UV lies in its safety. While methods like upper-room UV disinfection are employed in hospitals to reduce infection rates by strategically placing UV lamps high up in the room, their effectiveness is limited. The very reason they don't directly expose humans – to avoid the harmful effects – also restricts their ability to completely stop germs from spreading between people within the space.

This quest for a safer yet effective germicidal solution led researchers to explore a specific range within the UVC spectrum – far-UVC light. Unlike its conventional counterpart, far-UVC light boasts a much shorter wavelength, which translates to a crucial benefit: it cannot penetrate human skin deeply enough to cause damage. In fact, studies have shown it to be safe even for mice specifically bred to be susceptible to cancer

So, why aren't far-UVC lights omnipresent? While the approach holds immense promise, particularly for temporary disinfection applications, large-scale data is still emerging. The long-term effects of high far-UVC doses and its potential impact on human eyes require further investigation. Additionally, far-UVC light sources are not yet readily available in large quantities [Source: refer to research papers on limitations of Far-UVC technology]. This positions far-UVC as a promising future technology for decontaminating spaces in the presence of people, but not necessarily a short-term solution for current pandemics.

Combining UVC light with existing air filtration systems like HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) or air purifiers can significantly enhance overall disinfection efficiency. HVAC systems primarily handle climate control while filtering and recirculating air, while air purifiers specifically target airborne pollutants like smog.

The likelihood of another pandemic seems more a matter of "when" rather than "if". Continuous research and development of innovative disinfection technologies like far-UVC light are crucial in preparing for such eventualities.

[rajwillwrite]

Beneath the Moonlit Shadows : A saga of 47 rōnins

This legendary story began when Asano Naganori, aka the lord of Ako domain, cried: "Do you remember my grudge from these past days?"

His gaze fixed on Kira Yoshinaka. Asano extended his short sword, charged through the castle corridor, and struck Kira. While the wound wasn't fatal, its consequences would be.

The incident began in April 1701 when imperial envoys from Kyōto arrived in Edo (now Tokyo), the capital of the shogunate. Three provincial feudal lords were appointed to receive them, including Asano Naganori from Akō. Because these men were ignorant of court etiquette, they were directed to consult Kira Yoshinaka, a retainer of the shogun and an expert in such matters. The other two feudal lords gave Kira lavish presents to ensure his cooperation, but Asano offered only a token gift. Kira was apparently annoyed and expressed his displeasure by constantly taunting the inexperienced Asano. The latter finally gave way to his pent-up wrath, and in April 1701, in the audience hall of the shogun’s palace, he flew at Kira with his dirk. Kira escaped with minor wounds, but Asano’s gross breach of etiquette enraged shogun Tokugawa Tsunayoshi, who ordered Asano to commit ‘Seppuku’ (Japanese for: “self-disembowelment”) the same day.

The incident took place in Edo, Japan - modern-day Tokyo. The Tokugawa military and government had gained power about a century before. This ushered in a period of peace and stability, following the ‘warring state’ or ‘Sengoku Era,’ which was marked by constant bloodshed and conflict wrought by warlords and their samurais.

To secure their rule, the Tokugawa government aimed to tame the samurai class. Individual samurais carried two swords and served a single lord till death, but their duties became primarily bureaucratic and administrative. Meanwhile, Tokugawa legal practice stipulated that both sides would be disciplined in the event of a violent quarrel. However, when the officials convened following Asano's attack on Kira, they decided to punish only Asano's castle, the disbandment of his house, and the arrest of his younger brother. The news traveled quickly back to Asano's domain. Overnight, the roughly 300 samurais in Asano's retainer band found themselves dispossessed of their homes and stipend and turned into Ronin or masterless samurais.

They didn't exactly know why Asano attacked Kira - no one did. Some have speculated that Asano refused to pay a bribe to Kira, who was supposed to be guiding him in proper etiquette, so Kira humiliated him. Others believed that Asano had simply “gone mad.” This left the samurais of Ako domain in crisis, facing a tension that lay at the very heart of the Tokugawa Period. They were a privileged class of warriors inundated with epic legends of samurai loyalty, heroism, and martial glory. But they were forbidden from using violence - their traditional role once celebrated and restricted. Some of Asano's samurais said they should peacefully comply with government orders; others suggested that they should immediately follow their lord into death. One faction led by Horibe Yasubei argued that they must see their lord's apparent wishes through by killing Kira, claiming that as long as Asano's enemy was alive, they were dishonored. However, the effective leader of Ako domain's samurais, Oishi Yoshio, believed that if they complied with officials' orders, Tokugawa authorities might show mercy and permit Asano's brothers to succeed him. So the samurais peacefully surrendered the castle. But their hopes were dashed when Tokugawa officials placed Asano's brother in another family's custody, leaving them without a path to restore their status. Most accepted the government's terms. But in the end, 47 of Asano's samurais, including Horibe and Ōishi, didn't. Instead of formally asking permission to take revenge via the government's vendetta system, they began plotting to kill Kira covertly.

Almost two years after Asano's death, the rōnin, led by Ōishi, broke into Kira's residence and killed 16 of his samurais and wounded 23 others before beheading Kira himself. They presented Kira's head at Asano's grave, then surrendered to the Tokugawa officials, justifying their violence by saying they couldn't live under the same heaven as their lord's enemy (murderer). The ronin's actions created considerable problems for the Tokugawa government. The rōnin had broken the peace and a range of laws. But authorities also acknowledged the importance of honor and loyalty among samurais. After weeks of back and forth discussion, officials decided the rōnin could be praised but must be punished. They were permitted to commit ‘Seppuku,’ which offered them an honorable death, and they were laid to rest next to their master Lord Asano.

But their story soon morphed into legends. Within weeks, it was dramatized for the stage. And soon after, scholars began debating the rōnin's actions, some praising them as perfectly loyal and dutiful samurais; others condemning them as delusional criminals. Over the next three centuries, Japan continued examining and adapting the story in theatre, films, propaganda, and beyond - grappling with the tensions between law and culture, past and present, and repeatedly relitigating the incident long after an official verdict was rendered.

The event caused a huge commotion in Japan. The samurai qualities, which appeared to have faded over many years of calm, resurfaced. The most notable was ‘Chūshingura’ (1748) - The Treasury of Loyal Retainers, an 11-act Banraku- a puppet play composed in 1748. It is one of the most popular Japanese plays. In the most recent times, this event was made into a 2013 Hollywood movie titled "47 Ronin," starring actor Keanu Reeves.

[rajwillwrite]

High-Speed Rail in India

Image credit: Image/@nhsrcl

The Shinkansen, Japan’s high-speed train, was first introduced in 1964. Today, countries like the UK, France, Germany, Spain, China, the USA, Australia, and South Africa have adopted this service. India is also on the path to reaping the long-term socio-economic benefits of high-speed trains.

India’s marquee bullet train project, the Maharashtra Ahmedabad High-Speed Railway (MAHSR), is expected to generate numerous economic benefits and significantly impact people’s lives. It will create thousands of direct and indirect employment opportunities, stimulate the economy, pave the way for entirely new industries, and potentially trigger the next real estate boom. By saving businesses and individuals time and money, it will increase mobility and give a boost to the ‘Make in India’ initiative.

Upon completion, the travel time between Mumbai and Ahmedabad will be reduced to under 2 hours, a significant decrease from the current 8-9 hours by road and 4-5 hours by plane. This reduction in travel time and cost will not only save energy but also reduce stress and increase productivity, thereby benefiting not just individuals but also the country’s overall economy.

High-speed railways (HSR) are not subject to road congestion, so they operate on schedule every day without delay, even during adverse weather conditions. This has been exemplified by Japanese bullet trains, which are globally known for their punctuality and efficiency across all seasons.

The MAHSR project is a part of the Make In India initiative. As part of the transfer of technology (ToT) aspect of the project, Japan will share its blueprints and methodology with its Indian counterparts. This will enable India to replicate and recreate these elements related to the project under the ‘Make in India’ scheme.

The 508 km bullet train corridor will have ‘limited stop’ and ‘all stop’ services. The bullet train will have a maximum operational speed of 320 km/hr and will include a 21 km long tunnel, with a 7 km undersea stretch.

The cost of the project is estimated at Rs 1.08 lakh crore. The Government of India will pay Rs 10,000 crore to the National High-Speed Rail Corporation Ltd (NHSRCL), while the two states involved, Gujarat and Maharashtra, will pay Rs 5,000 crore each. The rest will be funded by Japan through a loan carrying a 0.1% interest rate.

However, there are concerns regarding the project’s financing. India could have saved as much as $3.2 billion on the construction of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train system if it had invited bids instead of awarding the project to Japan on a nomination basis. Furthermore, given the difference in inflation between India and Japan, the Japanese yen is projected to appreciate against the Indian rupee over the loan repayment period, potentially negating the benefit of a low-interest rate.

The project also raises environmental concerns, including the potential loss of mangroves and the impact on various species that inhabit these areas. The government and the NHSRCL are taking several measures to address these concerns, including implementing an environmental management plan and obtaining all requisite wildlife, forestry, and coastal regulation zone clearances.

In conclusion, while the bullet train project in India presents significant economic opportunities, it also poses financial and environmental challenges that need to be carefully managed. With proper planning and execution, the project has the potential to transform India’s transportation landscape and contribute significantly to its socio-economic development.

[rajwillwrite]

World on Fire

By Raj Chauhan

According to the ACLED index, 50 Countries in the world are either currently at war or debilitated by ongoing violence at the beginning of 2024. 1 out of 6 humans is exposed to armed conflicts in one way or another and what's most concerning is the level of violence worldwide has been steadily increasing in the past few years. 2023 witnessed, a 12% increase in unrest over 2022, and a 20% increase over 2019. Most of us are acutely aware of two main conflicts going on at the moment the war between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

But the media doesn’t give much coverage to conflicts in many other parts of the globe. So much of the blood continues with little attention. The truth is much more is going on than you probably realize and diplomatic tensions international conflicts and civil wars have continued to heat up in the past few months.

In this piece of work, we will go over as many ongoing conflicts as possible and uncover many ill-known strategies of the world and as we move ahead we will discuss less and less known wars that the media fails to cover.

So, arguably the third most well-known conflict is between Armenia and Azerbaijan, over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, since the days of the Soviet Union, both countries were part of Russia has long acted as the mediator between these two small countries but Russia’s attention now elsewhere the delicate balance has been offended, despite US efforts to mediate in June last year, the self-proclaimed Republic of Asdac, ruled by the Armenian majority enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, since the 1990s which is surrounded by the Azerbaijan. Russia's peacekeepers have protected the Lachin Corridor a vital route for supplies like food and medicines flowing from Armenia but after they left Azerbaijan took advantage and blockaded the corridor in December 2022 causing severe shortages.

On September 19th, 2023 Azerbaijan sent as many as 1,00,000 troopers to invade the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 24 hours, Azerbaijan troopers completely took over it and Asdac officially seized to exist on January 1st, 2024 with Armenia weakened and threatened by neighbouring Turkey and abandoned by its international allies. Azerbaijan remains officially at war with the country, and fear that the situation could explode soon as Azerbaijan started demanding a corridor through Armenia to connect the exclave of Nakhchivan to the rest of the country.

However, a little farther to the east lies one of the longest ongoing border disputes in the recent history between the recent history between the ex-Soviet Republic of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The news surfaced worldwide in September 2022 when reputed media reported on lives lost in the conflict.

Kyrgyzstan-Tajiskistan border clashes claim nearly 100 lives.

                                                                                         -BBC

24 were Killed on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border in the latest fighting to hit the former Soviet Union.

                                                                                         -CNN

The new casualties along the border led to the fear of spiralling instability now that Russia, which is now distracted could no longer mediate the dispute the conflict continues to claim occasional victims with intermittent skirmishes but Turkey has stepped in to try and negotiate a border agreement deal between the two countries.

Now let us move to Africa where regional instability in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo threatens to become a regional conflict. Between 2022 and 2023, a dangerous political crisis spilled over the border into neighbouring Rwanda. Over the past decade, the ethnic Tutsi rebels in the east of the country formed a rebel military group against the national government in June. North Kivu region – M23 movement.

In June 2022, the Congolese government accused neighbouring Rwanda of backing rebels which was later confirmed true by UN experts. The situation has led to a border crisis between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda in 2024 and the situation continues to deteriorate rapidly after Burundi accused Rwanda of actually training rebels of the same ‘Red Tobara Movement’ that tried to overthrow the Burundian government in 2015. Many fear the war will spread into the greater East African Region.

Another potential International war could break out between Venezuela and Guyana after Venezuelans voted to claim a huge chunk of Guyana's territory and send troops to the border war is not always a conflict between two nations, you see civil wars are happening in all different parts of the world. Yemen has been involved in a brutal civil war since 2014, between the Saudi-backed government coalition and Iran-backed Houthis rebels. The situation is already dire enough with as much as 75% of the population left in need of humanitarian aid and close to half of the Yemens population currently facing the risk of starvation due to the ongoing conflict. Right now the country is sparsely controlled by a handful of different factions beyond the Houthis rebels controlling the capital ‘Sanaa’ and all of the former North Yemen except the Eastern Marib Government, and the official government controlling much of the Eastern side of the country. Jihadist groups are taking advantage of local dire situations here and there. In addition to that the STC otherwise known as the Southern Transitional Council Movement is profiting from the support of UAE to seize control over to power the southern portion of the country to claim its independence pretty much like Yemen was split before it united in 1990. Yemen Civil war has yet again made news as ‘Houthis’ have been firing rockets across the Middle East against Israel in retaliation for the military operation against ‘Hamas’. This is contributing to the disruptions to global trade in the focal point of the ‘Bab el Mandeb Strait’ forcing cargo ships around Africa to deliver goods to Europe in Response, Western forces like the US and the UK have summoned attacks on the Houthi military targets.

Another civil war is carried on in Myanmar, where the military Junta returned to power in a Brutal Coup in 2021. The situation heated up in October 2023, when the different rebel factions brokered a deal to unite against the military government in a Joint offensive operation that has now displaced more than 3,50,000 people from their homes.

Moving back to Africa to a small country of Cameroon has also suffered a Civil War since 2016 when separatist from the Ambazonia Region declared their independence. If we look into Cameroon’s history it was once split into French and British colonies. The result is that the Amabazonia region is English-speaking while the rest of the country speaks French. This crisis is called the Anglophone War as the English-speaking minority fights against the wealthier and more powerful Francophone majority.

Elsewhere on the continent (Africa) Sudan is being torn apart by civil war, where military factions ripped open old wounds when they staged a coup in 2021. The United Nations is seriously concerned about the stability of the country as millions of people have been displaced to refugee camps and growing clashes threatened to spill over into South Sudan which gained its independence from Sudan in 2011.

Perhaps one of the worst situations in Africa is currently in Ethiopia's ‘Tigray’ region (North). Already one of the poorest areas of the country Tigray is scared by poor conflicts that led to the independence of the Eritrea region in the 1990s. The war with Eritrea left a strong Ethiopian military presence in the Tigray region which is home to the Tigrain people who have long enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, the tide changed in 2021, when the current prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party gained a large majority in the European Parliament and called for more centralization of power. Tigray’s subsequent rebellion was severely repressed. Pushing three and a half million people or more than half of its population to the brink of starvation tension already came to a boiling point in November 2020 when the Ethiopian Federal force invaded the Tigray capital Nekelle. They installed an interim government after the previous administration authorized new parliamentary elections despite a ban by Prime Minister Abiy due to the pandemic. More recently Abiy Ahmed has decided to divert international attention from Tigray by threatening neighbour Eritrea to six years after the last standing peace deal between the two countries which had earned him a Nobel Peace Prize. The issue at hand is Eritrea’s independence which made Ethiopia a landlocked country denying it access to the global trade opportunities of the Red Sea. Ethiopia is now threatening to regain Red Sea access by force for the time being Ethiopia seeking to establish a port in the neighbouring Somaliland a de-facto independent region of Somalia. If this idea is successful war could spread to the entire ‘Horn of Africa’ and beyond as Ethiopia is promised to formally recognize and protect Somaliland in return for the deal has irritated neighbouring Egypt and Somalia.

The list of other Civil wars and unrest is unfortunately quite long so we will quickly mention the recent coupes in Niger, Gabon, Burkina Faso, and Sierra Leone. There is reasonable suspicion that Russia is behind some of these geo-political shifts of power in Africa or that they are at least taking advantage of ongoing tensions between several African countries and France. Western neglect and lack of involvement in the region have paved the way for terrorist on nationalist groups to overthrow pro-western governments or long-established dictatorships. The disappearance of the mercenary group has opened the doors to other influences in the Sahel region, as China expands its presence in the area. Lastly, central America’s Affliction of organized crime and cartels is getting out of the land as conflict develops into proper civil wars according to many analysts.

Cartel turf war rages in Mexico Chiapas as groups fight over territory.

                                                                                                       -France 24(2023)

Honduras Declares war against gangs and for Control of popular Narratives.

    -The Guardian

Honduras declares war against gangs that are causing rest on the national level.

Haiti’s government has lost control over public safety as gang conflict overwhelmed the capital Port-au-Prince- Prince causing more than 5,000 civilian deaths in 2023 alone. The UN has declared an emergency and will be sending troops to keep the peace. Similarly, Mexico’s long-standing problem with the drug cartel is reaching a point of no return which pushed President Joe Bidden to temporarily send 1,500 troops to patrol the US border and tackle the resulting migrant crisis. As a result, Mexico has been labelled as the fourth most violent country in the world, despite not being a part of any war.

On the other side of the region, drug cartels have reportedly been funding civil unrest and gang movement in Ecuador effectively crippling control of the government's ability and capacity to maintain order in some regions. The one bright spot of the region is El Salvador where President Nayib Bukele seems to have fixed the country. Unbelievable gang problems with Authoritarian measures like throwing anyone suspected of gang membership in jail. The country's homicide rate dropped from 1,147 to 556 in the past few years.

But giving up freedom for security is worth the price.

It is up to you to decide that. But we have more to worry about than ongoing conflicts and civil wars because many disputes threaten to become Tomorrow's wars.

The globe has become significantly more violent in recent years, conflict event rates grew by more than 40% between 2020 and 2023, and by 12% in 2023 compared to 2022 rates. However, 2020 was a less violent year than 2018-2019, when hostilities in Afghanistan and Syria raged. In comparison to prior years, the gain in 2023 remains large, at an average of 20%.

As of January 2024, 15 nations' Index rankings had improved over the five years from 2019 to 2023, while 16 had seen deteriorating levels of violence. Sixteen nations have constantly been classified as having 'severe' or 'high' conflict levels, with no change from 2019 to 2023. Overall, among the 50 nations at the top of the Index, more than half (42) are facing continuous or growing levels of violence compared to 2019. In the six months between the Index's mid-year update (July 2023) and the conclusion of the year, eight nations saw deteriorating levels of conflict, with three of those countries (Palestine, Haiti, and Sudan) falling into the 'severe' conflict category.

Source: ACLED index

Taiwan recently elected the most pro-independence leader (William Lai) as their president since it became a democracy and Chinese President Xi Jinping responded with a threat in his recent New Year speech, claiming that China will surely protect its territorial integrity. The threat in the Asia-Pacific region comes at an opportunity moment as the US and its allies are occupied with Ukraine and distracted by internal politics. Japan is preparing for the worst and plans to rearm itself to a level unseen since World War 2.

Moving on to the Mediterranean Island partially occupied by Turkey since 1974, Cyprus where recent incidents have pushed Turkey (Cypriots) to attack UN peacekeepers inside the buffer zone.

UN peacekeeper hurt in Cyprus buffer zone clash with Turkish Forces.

                                                                             -Reuter (2023) 

Splitting the Island in two. This attack has been condemned as a serious escalation pushing Cyprus's president to announce an increase in military spending by 2% of its GDP. Lastly, many are concerned about the potential spill over of the Israel-Gaza conflict, especially as Israel targets, Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon territory all while Western allies target Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Everybody is watching closely for Iran's response which has been surprisingly tempered as far except for a surprise ballistic attack in Erbil, Iraq. Erbil the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region is home to both a US consulate and an alleged Israeli spy base but the chance that major Middle-Eastern players like Iran will enter the conflict is heightened by the recent crisis at the eastern border. 2023 ended with Iranian Border forces skirmishing with Afghani Taliban over the border dispute. After New Year's Iran and Pakistan started attacking each other's border provinces with ballistic missiles in a sudden act of hostility the conflict seems to have been resolved for now as the aim on both sides was to attack groups acting in both countries towards independence of the cross-region of Baluchistan. Still, border tension remains high as neither Pakistan nor Iran wants to appear weak or accommodating in such a tense period for geo-political relations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called for restraint from both Israel and Iran following a major escalation in tensions. Iran launched a large drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

The Kremlin warned of "catastrophic consequences" for the Middle East if tensions escalate further.

Iran claims its attack was a limited response to the Israeli strike, which killed several Iranian military officials.

Both Russia and Iran agree on the need for a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders. However, the situation is complicated by Russia's recent purchase of Iranian weapons, which are being used in the war in Ukraine.

Renewed clashes along the northeastern border of Ukraine have triggered a fresh wave of displacement, with over 1,700 civilians forced to flee their homes. Russia's Ministry of Defence reported capturing five villages in a recent ground offensive. Ukrainian officials haven't confirmed these claims, but acknowledge ongoing fighting in some of the contested areas. The city of Vovchansk has borne the brunt of the attacks, with relentless airstrikes and rocket barrages causing widespread destruction.  Journalists witnessed numerous air attacks and documented damaged buildings, some ablaze. The Associated Press described a harrowing scene of deserted streets, smouldering buildings, and the constant threat of air raids.

A bitter dispute between Mexico and Ecuador has erupted after Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest a former vice president.  Mexico has severed diplomatic relations and is considering legal action against Ecuador. The incident has divided Latin America, with some countries condemning Ecuador's actions and others expressing support.  Colombia and Nicaragua have followed Mexico in severing ties with Ecuador.