rajakrsnan

[rajakrsnan]

Sonia Gandhi will surprise everybody in 2024

State elections for 2023 are over and INC (Indian National Congress party) are very happy at capturing power in Telangana and hoping to improve their tally in coming Lok Sabha elections significantly. As the principal opposition party, they must lead from the front.

Change of mind in 2019

Like 2019, months before the election dates are announced, something is quietly happening in the minds of the Gandhi family. Last time, Rahul Gandhi decided to contest from Wayanad in Kerala, apart from his traditional Amethi. The decision to contest from Wayanad was not a sudden one. The results of 2014 were a warning sign for Rahul Gandhi and the mood of the constituency had moved in favour of the BJP candidate Smriti Irani. The 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election results confirmed that Amethi is not safe for Rahul Gandhi and the search for safe seat begun. And there is strong evidence for that. The twitter handle created for Rahul Gandhi dates back to September 2018. 6 to 7 months prior to election dates were announced. Read More...

[rajakrsnan]

Projections for 2024 Lok Sabha elections

The last elections for 2023 are over. Now it's time to prepare for the 2024 General Elections. BJP showed that it can beat anti-incumbency factors and return with a bigger share of seats. INC is at a loss as to where it went wrong. Were they wrong from the beginning or did that happen after the nominations were filed? Success in Karnataka elections barely 6 months back put them in an overconfident mode and thought the same formula works for all seasons. Whoever thought so made the only terrible mistake of their life in the Hindi belt or the cow belt as most political commentators would like to call those states - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh.

I did some simple calculations and arrived at my seat projections for 2024. No surprises. NDA is returning to power, and BJP is improving its 2019 tally. States where they were expected to lag behind are now moving towards BJP. Congress party & I.N.D.I alliance are in for a big shock when the results are announced in mid-May 2024. BJP may improve its tally and will walk away with 308-360 seats and NDA allies will contribute another 20-25 seats. If NDA comes with the slogan "abki baar Modi sarkar aur 400 paar", don't be surprised; it will definitely happen. In the south, Karnataka BJP is likely to lose a couple of seats. They can still come back with a decent number of seats - between 20 to 24. Telangana 4 to 6, Tamil Nadu and Kerala there is a fair chance of them opening their account with one or two seats. Andhra I don't see anything happening now, but as election dates come near, things can change. Bihar & Maharashtra BJP will improve its tally, but the allies will underperform.

BJP will win between 310-360 seats and allies will add another 20 seats taking the NDA tally to 330 to 380 seats. Another projection will be given in mid-January 2024.

[rajakrsnan]

Exit Polls analysis

The just concluded State Assembly Elections to Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana have thrown a confusing trend for analysts. Most of the exit pollsters are a confused lot along with most television channels. Tomorrow, 3rd December 2023 will tell how accurate these agencies & TV chanels who conducted the exit polls. About 2 to 3 months back, no one expected BJP to make any kind of come back to power in Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan was the only state, where BJP have a definite edge because they decided not to project former CM Vasundhara Raje as the Chief Ministerial candidate because of which they lost the 2018 elections to the state assembly. On 30th November, 2023 Telangana went to polls, and which was the day when Exit poll results allowed. All the exit pollsters looked a confused lot. Their estimates clearly tell that they are not telling the truth or they are confused. Most of them put out a wide range for BJP and INC, two main contenders for power.

Chattisgarh is a closely contested election with INC having a decisive edge about a month back. As the second phase of the elections started, BJP seems to have caught up with them and now the final numbers will be so close that it is a close call for both parties. BJP will win around 39 seats (+/- 3) and INC 47 seats (+/_ 5).

In Madhya Pradesh, BJP initially was lagging behind. Once the election bugle was sounded Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan took the opposition party, INC head on and now they seem to be in the driver's seat. Here too the election is very closely contested. The final tally for BJP is around 120-126 seats and INC 97-103. The possibility of BJP ending with a higher tally is extremely high.

In Rajasthan, BJP will win 120 or more. Voters have decided to teach INC a lesson of their lifetime. INC may end up with 65-70 seats. Here BJP is getting a clear mandate.

Telangana BRS holds the key as they are in power and have a key ally in AIMIM who will not ditch them. INC has made big inroads into BRS's muslim vote bank. That is a worrying factor for AIMIM who has no influence outside Hyderabad. AIMIM will remain a 3% vote share party, not beyond it. BJP is a minor player who increased its vote share to 14% from 2018's 7%. This should worry BRS. If BRS wins 50-55 seats, then they have to reach out to BJP apart from AIMIM who is their traditional ally since the formation of Telangana state in 2013. Wondering how BJP & AIMIM will be part of the same alliance? Will AIMIM walk out of the alliance with BRS? Anything can happen.

In MP and Rajasthan, exit pollsters gave a wide range of 20-30 seats. That means either they are confused or they did not do their work diligently. In Mizoram, they have projected a 6 seats range for the local party in an assembly of 40 seats. That is ridiculous.

BJP will win Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Rajasthan, they will win hands down, and in Madhya Pradesh, it is a closely contested fight with BJP having a big edge now. Chattisgarh turned into a nail-biting contest; it can go either way. Telangana is also a closely contested election with BRS losing a lot but staking claim to power with the support of other two parties - AIMIM & BJP. INC gained a lot in this election, bringing them close to power in the state after 10 long years.