lordadmiralfarsight

[lordadmiralfarsight]

There was only one bed.

Only one bed in the entire room, but so tired were they, they never questionned it. They never questionned the strange, matt quality of the walls, or the strangely dry feel of the bedframe. They never questionned why the bed was already warm, as if a person had been there just before their arrival.

There was only one bed, and they collapsed in it, exhausted, so terribly exhausted, more exhausted than they had ever been before.

And come morning ... there was only one bed.

Writer: There Was Only One Bed…

Smut fans: *gasp!!!!!*

Writer: So They Spooned All Night And The Brooding One Allowed Themselves To Feel Vulnerable For The First Time In Years And The Chirpy One Got Some Quality Snuggles

Fluff fans: *GASP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*

[lordadmiralfarsight]

A little lesson in economy and why a high inflation/interest rate combo will fuck you up something fierce

Greetings fellow hellsiters, it is I, a random dude from the economy/business side of tumblr. Yes it exists. No we aren't making money.

But of money I shall talk, namely Russian money. A money called and in rubbles.

"Dear Admiral", I hear you say -very politely, too- "That 21% number is scary, but still, isn't calling the Rubble a pile of rubbles excessive?"

Mayhaps a bit, but let me explain, and you will understand why I am engaging in this bit of mischievous exageration.

First off, because I know some tankies will stumble upon my post should it ever break containment, let me be clear : the numbers mentionned in this article, both the 21% central bank interest rate, and the 9.8% inflation in septembre, are official figures by the Russian government. CNBC didn't invent them, I sure as hell didn't invent them and, hopefully, the Russian government didn't invent them either.

Second, let us define clearly what each term means : 1) Inflation : the rate at which prices increase over a given period (typically, year on year). This makes it also, in effect, the rate at which money loses purchasing power. 2) Interest rate : the rate at which interests accumulate over a given period (here again, the typical period is a year). Interests are, of course, to be paid, so it's money you have to pay on top of the loan you took (said loan having an interest rate). 3) Central bank interest rate : the rate at which the central bank gives loans to market-facing banks. AKA, the rate at which the government loans money to banks to finance the economy. The higher that rate is, the lower the economic activity, because it becomes harder AND less interesting to get loans.

All set ? Ravishing ! Let's start then.

First off, the 21% central bank interest rate. This means that Russian banks are incredibly unlikely to give loans, and the loans are likely to be at, quite honestly, brutal rates. Because, you see, banks like to make money on the loans they give, it's kind of important for their financing and to pay the interests on the savings stuffed in their coffers. So that means that market facing banks will only be able to give loans that allow them to face that 21% interest rate, which uh ... well there's not that many. It's a very high interest rate right there. And while they could conceivably find ways to offer lower interest rates with a variety of financial stratagems ... that can only go so far.

So they'll give fewer loans, with much stricter conditions. And even then, there's the question of IF someone will seek out those loans, because you see ...

From the client's point of view, this is a nightmare. And to be clear, I am talking about the CLIENTS, the companies and professionnals, not the customers/consummers. They will suffer from that too, but the impact on them isn't what I'm focusing on and also I'm a bit more shaky on that, so feel free to complete in the comments if you feel like it.

So, the clients, the firms and companies, big and small, that need loans. Before they take a loan, they need a development project, and that project must have a return on investment (or ROI) that is higher than the interest rate. Said otherwise, it must be able to pay for the loan. Now I want you to think carefully about the economy and find the one, single, unique economic actor that can promise a 18% or 20% or 25% rate of ROI.

You found it ? You have shouted their name in jubilation in from of your PC, delighted at having the right answer ?

Yes, you are right, let's say it ALL TOGETHER !!! Scammers.

Fucking scammers.

They're the only ones to promise those rates. And unlike banks and companies, they have a distinct competitive advantage : they don't keep their word. That's what makes them scammers, after all.

Why are scammers the only ones to promise those rates ? Because they're god damn unrealistic. Can you have products that have a profit margin above 20% ? Sure ! In luxury fields ! But then there's a host of other costs that come a-knocking that don't factor into production but are necessary to maintain the brand.

But is the Russian economy made up of luxury brands ? Lmao nope.

And here's the funny thing, damn near every company needs loans nowadays. They need them to buy new machines, create new production units, face unexpected problems, manage seasonal down-time, and so on and so forth. Lots of cases where companies need loans. And those loans need to have a decent enough ROI, or the alternative needs to be worse than not taking the loan.

You can't really control unexpected problems (like an entire machine going tits up because Boris Embezzelovitch used the maintenance money to buy a hottub for his dacha) or seasonal down-times in activity, so those loans can't be escaped. That means some companies will have no choice but to take those violently unfavorable loans to face those situations. Pretty bad.

But surely, the Economy can be saved by brave entrepreneurs fueled by patriotism-flavored vodka and a passion of Rossiya Rodina, right ? Lol. Lmao even.

Now, I am a teacher, and that is now your problem. Exercise time !! I'm going to give you a list of exemples, and I want you to find what development project they can do to get a ROI of at least 20%.

The list : - A toiler paper company - A canned vegetable company - A shoemaking company - A software development company - A construction company Give yourself a little time, think carefully on it. I believe in you. Juuuust a few more minutes, aaaaaand done !

Now, let's see your answers. "Fuck all" ? Correct ! You are absolutely right, there's fuck all they can invest in that can beat that interest rate. You are also very correct in pointing out the bit I wrote slightly above about scammers. You are doing fantastic !

So, if loans are out, what can Russian companies do to expand, develop and/or modernize their equipment ? Well, they would have to rely on self-financing, also known as savings for flesh people.

And that's when you relive a long forgotten experience, a casual scroll through DeviantArt in the early 2010s, when suddenly inflation comes into the picture, unexpected and mildly frightening.

What's the rate ? 9.8% in September. Which means that, in Russia, prices were 9.8% higher in September 2024 than in September 2023. Said otherwise, the same person, with the same income, could buy 10% less one year later. that stings. And it applies to companies too !

One of the big drivers of inflation is the increase in salaries, lead proudly by the Russian MoD to lure more people under the flag to shoot and get shot. Russia offers soldier salaries that are much higher than the market rate, which has a knock on effect.

But, much more importantly for this lesson, it means that the more you wait around with savings, the less they're worth. So the only option for a Russian company to develop itself ... is to bet on savings that are depreciating rather fast.

"So they just won't develop then, right ?" You ask. Pretty much, yeah. The Russian economy is likely going to go into a holding pattern, with companies holding on for dear life in hopes of weathering the storm. Now make a link with what I said about accidents and seasonal down-times. Yeeeaaah, it's not just you, the whole thing just stinks.

Now, consider that it's the whole economy that faces that situation. ALL Russian companies. And that means that, statistically speaking, there WILL be strategic companies that suffer, and I'm not just talking of MIC companies. Remember the toilet paper company from above ? Yeah, what consequences if it goes down ? Yes, the canned veggies company too, but also the farms that supply it. What about mines, like iron mines, do you think those are important ? Would be pretty fucked up if their equipment broke down and they couldn't replace it and had no choice but to close down, yeah ?

Weird how large the "strategic company" umbrella can get in those cases, huh?

Oh but sure, they can buy from outside ... whiiiiiiich is a tad bit more complicated when your foreign currency reserves are either confiscated or almost empty and your money's worth has dug past bedrock and is putting in a valiant effort to join the Zimbabwean dollar in swimming through the mantle.

So, what's my prediction ? Closedowns. A LOT of closedowns, accross the spectrum of the Russian economy. The only way I see to avoid that would be for Russia to disengage from Ukraine (which they ain't doing, let's be real) or for Putin to spend such an absurd amount of cash supporting the Russian economy that he empties the treasury in 3 months max ... followed by mass closedowns. And those closedowns will not be replaced, because developping or creating a company will cost so fucking much, which will create holes in the market, driving higher prices on the remaining products.

Salaries are unlikely to go back down too much, what with the number of dead and infirm in Ukraine. Immigration is also not a panacea, because after the ISIS attack there's a surge of xenophobia, especially against central-asians, exactly the people that are nearby and can speak Russian. Add in the fact that Western sanctions are unlikely to be lifted after the war, that means the thick layer of costs and uncertainty they add will not disappear.

Is this the magic solution ? Is Russia going to collapse litterally tomorrow ? No.

But it's a sign, a clear and visible sign of very, very, very poor economic health. Russia is not doing good at all. It will not do good at all for a fair bit after.

And mind you, that's if inflation is indeed at 9.8%, and that's not certain considering how many economic indicators the Russian government is hiding and/or manipulating. It could be higher. Not lower though, if it was they'd say it.

And that, dear reader, is why it is bad and painful to have both high inflation and high interest rates together for a long time. And somehow, that's still better than if the interest rates were low, because then you'd get hyperinflation, and much like its fetish equivalent, you need a very specific mindset divorced from real life consequences to want that, because holy shit the consequences are gruesome.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

I'd like to know what kind of nuance and historical context can be applied to the entire run of the 13+ centuries of the Arab slave trade, or to the modern Houthi slave trade, but not to the Atlantic slave trade.

Like, I was raised on the idea that the Atlantic slave trade was a horrific crime, it's even described as a crime against Humanity by law in my country of France, one of the perpetrators of that crime. But the Arab slave trade and/or the Houthi slave trade are excused by ... nuance and historical context.

So, what exactly is that nuance and historical context that is omitted and excuses those slave trades ?

Also from "Me too" to "Rape of jewish women can be excused as an act of palestinian resistance".

[lordadmiralfarsight]

hell yeah

[lordadmiralfarsight]

and now I want a shonen with over-the-top visuals and stupidly dramatic battles using food and chocolate guy being in it using all chocolate based weapons and techniques, including the chocobunshin or whatever it'd be called.

I need it for spiritual reasons.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Each time I think we've reached rock bottom, a new chasm opens.

"Syrians who oppose Assad are all Nazis!" not wanting your government to use chemical weapons on you isn't Nazism.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

It's fucking disturbing. Here we have some pretentious blowhard trying to ward off critical thinking because it gets in the way of the bloody slaughter they daydream about.

They know their arguments do not stand to calm, thoughtfull examinations, but do they take the logical, rational next step and consider that perhaps their arguments are wrong ? NO! It's rationality that is wrong!

This is the goddam Simpson meme, but about rational thinking.

What the hell.

well that’s the stupidest thing i’ve read all week

[lordadmiralfarsight]

I am older than Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and modern Serbia, yet you don't see me chanting or protesting for the restoration of Yugoslavia or the subjugation of all those nations to Serbian nationalist agendas like under Slobodan Milošević.

In fact, you don't see that many people, aside from a subset of Serbian nationalists, wanting that.

So why are they so obsessed with Israel's age ? What characteristic could Israel possibly have to motivate that obsession ? Why only Israel ?

Hmmmmmmmm

hi, i just saw your post about the precedence of ppl talking as if 2000 yrs caused jewish indigeniety to expire, and it made me think of the slogan "israel is younger than my grandma". it's an annoying phrase on its own because there are a lot of living grandmas older than a lot of different countries bc the 20th century has been a wild ride of geopolitical turbulence, but the desperation behind it betrays a kind of "it's not too late" energy - showing that these people have totally given up on decolonizing america, canada, australia, nz, and the other settler states they say they hate exactly as much as israel, but don't put a fraction of the energy into marching against. at most they're further down the revolutionary list, but at worst they're fully setting the expiration on indigenous rights to the age of a currently living grandma

Exactly this.

Palestine has been around just as long as Israel has as brittish mandate Palestine was a different country to Palestine. It was seen as a temporary extension of the brittish empire till they figured out what to do with it.

Like South Sudan became it's own country in 2011, Kosovo in 2008 and so many other countries. Even in the middle east, Yemen became it's own country in 1990. My parents are older than Yemen. I'm older than South Sudan and Kosovo.

And you are exactly right that they've given up on settler states they claim to hate so much. Like I've said in other posts, they don't give two shits about Māori rights. I haven't heard anyone outside of NZ talk about the bill David Seymour wants to implement. B'H that literally every single other party in Parliment, both in the government and opposition (so 5 parties and one independent) refuse to support his bill.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

the fuck ?

This is how I found out Shakira is on trial for tax fraud 😀

[lordadmiralfarsight]

You can add me to the list

Hey so does anyone know of a non-jewish person who is a leftist and also understands that Hamas is a literal terrorist organization? Because all I can find are either people who call themselves "antizionists" and don't understand how important it is for a jewish state to exist, or jews like me who are personally affected by the rising of antisemitism.

Is there anyone who isn't jewish or israeli but actually knows what's going on??

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Hi, French here.

Since you asked to be corrected if wrong, then I shall. France did NOT just roll over. I know that's what you keep hearing in Anglophone media, since they seem to be obsessed with shitting on us. But that is, plainly speaking, the worst lie and insult our allies say about us, and its current memetic status (I will never forgive the whole "cheese eating surrender monkey" bullshit) was achieved due to propaganda by the Bush Jr administration when the damn bastard got butthurt we didn't yap obediently and follow into Iraq.

The Battle of France lasted six weeks and killed or disappeared at least 60,000 German soldiers. But that's not talked about.

While the Brits were evacuating in Dunkerque, who held the Nazi at bay ? That's right, the French army, but why mention that ? It's not like it's important, right ?

And there's the fact that the entire French army got captured, leaving Paris and much of the country VERY undefended, but that doesn't matter to smug self-righteous internet generals.

Instead, France should have just let its capital and countryside be bombed, torched, looted, massacred and raped while raising another army, all while its industrial capabilities were being bombed, torched and looted alongside the rest. Clearly, the memories of the violent and bloody occupation of French territories during WW1 were just a collective hallucination and the Nazi regime would have been very gentle and kind to France while it rebuilt its army, right ? Like they were during the occupation, with the massacres, the looting, the raping, the famines, the oppression ...

And because I know someone in the replies will go there, yes, I know about Petain. Guess what, the cunt was inevitable. Nazi Germany would have picked a far right bastard to govern Vichy, wether it was the filthy traitor Petain or someone else. The dude was a war hero at the time, it made sense to pick him to lead since no one could (or currently can) look into the future to know he'd sell out THAT hard.

And we failed our Jewish citizens, we failed them horrifyingly. But despite this, we had people running interference, refusing to abandon our fellow citizens. We had civil servants sabotaging the creation of the racial profiling, and a lot of them gave their lives to buy time and save people. We look up to them, all while acknowledging the crimes of Vichy and at least trying to correct them, even if often, it's too little too late.

But why would that matter ? That's nuance, it's inconvenient, it's so much better to just paint over it all with a broad, simplistic brush and say that France "just rolled over", to the point it becomes a well accepted fact, even if it's a lie.

And, well, that made people comfortable with a specific kind of rethoric.

Until 2022, I saw a post calling for the nuking, or invasion, or damaging of France at least once a year, and it was very clearly coming from people in countries we are supposed to be allied with.

It took Soloviev, Russian propagandist in chief and second most prolific purveyor of nuclear threats in the Russian Federation 3 entire weeks to catch up to that particular counter.

Hatred of France is so normalized on the Anglophone internet that I am genuinely unsure if Trump would actually lose votes if he declared he'd nuke Paris. I wouldn't be surprised if he GAINED votes for it.

But that doesn't matter, none of it does. If Brits and Americans and Australians and so on and so forth want to lionize themselves and feel strong and powerful and awesome, insulting France by diminishing the efforts and sacrifices my country suffered is a small price. Not like we're allies, right ? Oh, wait.

being a jew studying preholocaust european jewish history is just *mourns over what could have been, mourns over what could have been, mourns over what could have been, mourns over what could have been, mourns-*

[lordadmiralfarsight]

worship of an appropriated Jewish demon as a kind of girl-boss deity, antisemitic canard, transphobia ... Smells like TERF in there.

what is the sids demon..

Lilith.

In Judaism she is a demon which kills babies. Sids, sudden infant death syndrome, was attributed to her before any scientific discovery was made regarding it.

Neo pagans love to act as if she's some girl boss diety and not a baby killing demon from jewish texts

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Well, there's that at least, here's hoping it stays that way

Rocket alarms in Israel rn, going off again and again. We're okay, I'm in the bomb shelter with my family. I've been in bomb shelters since I was 8. Honestly, anyone who's been spared such experoences has no right moralizing to Israelis.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Holy shitting fuck, are you guys OK ? Are you guys safe ?

Rocket alarms in Israel rn, going off again and again. We're okay, I'm in the bomb shelter with my family. I've been in bomb shelters since I was 8. Honestly, anyone who's been spared such experoences has no right moralizing to Israelis.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Umm, goy here, so I may not grasp the nuance but ... do they believe Israeli (or Jews, I think we all know that's what they mean) have the powers of Solf J. Kimblee from anime classic Fullmetal Alchemist ?

This shit is actually comical. If you are Israeli please start going around touching random objects so that these people due to their own moral code cannot use it anymore.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

+1 soup damage

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Chapters: 1/? Fandom: RWBY, Warhammer Fantasy Rating: Mature Warnings: Graphic Depictions Of Violence, Major Character Death Relationships: Other Relationship Tags to Be Added, Summer Rose/Taiyang Xiao Long, Jacques Schnee/Willow Schnee, Raven Branwen/Taiyang Xiao Long Characters: Jaune Arc, Repanse de Lyonesse, Original Arc Character(s) (RWBY), Saphron Cotta-Arc, Juniper (RWBY), Original Human Character(s), Lie Ren, Nora Valkyrie, Nuckelavee - Character, Original Dwarf Character(s), Hildegund Froiz, Glynda Goodwitch, Ozma (RWBY), The Schnee Family, Konrad Messner, Maximilian Saer, Junior (RWBY), Neopolitan (RWBY), Roman Torchwick, Salem (RWBY), Cinder Fall, Taiyang Xiao Long, Qrow Branwen, Summer Rose (RWBY), Creatures of Grimm (RWBY), Zwei (RWBY), Luigi Belladonna, Carlo & Furio Belladonna, Adam Taurus, Team RWBY Additional Tags: Action/Adventure, Adventure & Romance, Beastmen Species (Warhammer Fantasy), Greenskin Species (Warhammer Fantasy), Canon-Typical Violence, RWBY Characters in Mallus (Not Isekai), Cathay Nation (Warhammer Fantasy), Kislev (Warhammer Fantasy), Dragon Ogre Species (Warhammer Fantasy), Empire of Man (Warhammer Fantasy), Bretonnia, Dwarves, Troll Species (Warhammer Fantasy), Fictional Religion & Theology, Politics, Alternate Universe - Medieval, Tragedy/Comedy, Dark Comedy, World Travel, medieval warfare, Magic, Illustrations, Cover Art, Art, Border Princes, Tilea, Araby - Freeform, Exhaustion, Angst and Hurt/Comfort, Languages, Explicit Language, The Creatures of Grimm Exist In A Different Form, Long, Warhammer Cults & Religions, Druchii | Dark Elf Species (Warhammer Fantasy), Asur | High Elf Species (Warhammer Fantasy), Beastmen/Beastfolk Expanded Fanon, Setting Exploration, Monster of the Week Series: Part 2 of RWBYhammer Summary:

The Legend of Grail Knight D'Arc

Imagen externa

And All The Companions Who Kept His Sorry Ass Alive

The Story of Eight -and sometimes more- unlikely young heroes and their world-trotting adventures and efforts to save the world from a most grimm fate, united by chance and lead by a young man with a… A dead woman’s voice screaming in his head? Well, this is bound to be interesting…