lordadmiralfarsight

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Je suis heureux de pouvoir t'aider : )

Don't worry about not having the slang, it can be hard to get it when all you have is the formal context, but you do kind of need that context before you can go into slang.

Just keep at it, peek into francophone spaces (keeping in mind that different nationalities will have different slangs and phraseologies) and you'll get it soon enough.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

@mapletree100 Of course it's boring if you stick to the most basic, uncreative and barebones way of talking about it. We have plenty of cuter and funnier ways to say it. Tailler une pipe - carve a pipe Faire un pompier - make a fireman Faire un baiser au grand chauve - give a kiss to the great bald one Jouer du trombonne - play the trombone Faire la turlute - that one can't be translated, it's just pure musicality of language. Don't stop at just the basic, boring name. Go with the fun names. That's where the beauty of a language is.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

umm i need reassurance that my presence is wanted but i can’t ask for reassurance because that’s really Embarrassing and it wouldn’t feel genuine if i asked for it

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Economy lesson : Money Velocity

Greetings my dear little Tumblrans, it is I, that guy that keeps making vaguely meme-y economy posts ! Today with horrible news : I have decided to teach outside of work hours ! On the plus side, unlike my IRL students, YOU can block me if you don't want the lesson.

And today's topic will be Money Velocity. What is money velocity ? It's not a bike city populated by sentient cash, despite what some might believe, no. It is the speed at which money moves inside an economy. What's that got to do with anything ? A fucklot ! Let me explain.

Money velocity is, like I said, the speed at which money moves in an economy between actors. Like consumers, banks, the State, companies, NGOs, etc. The faster that money moves, the better, because it means that money is being used for economic activity, powering various parts of the system and thus creating wealth.

Or, in the wise words of one of the few monarchs I am not physically incapable of tolerating, King Julian : we like to move it move it (it being money).

To illustrate, allow me to introduce a character : a random €100 bill. Yes, euro, not dollar, I'm European, you can't stop me. That €100 bill, which we will call Billy going forward, is used to buy a load of groceries at the market, let's say veggies for a restaurant. Billy is now in the hands of a farmer, who uses it to buy fertilizer to keep his farm going. The producer of the fertilizer then uses Billy to pay a worker, who then uses billy to pay for a new piece of furniture, and then Billy is used to buy more lumber, then to pay for repairs on a chainsaw, then to buy spare parts, then to ... You get the idea, Billy is on a grand journey through the economy, how delightfull.

When he's doing that, Billy is keeping the economic waterwheel going, round and round, and that economic waterwheel then powers society. A waterwheel that goes vroom means that the economy is healthy, which means you can safely invest in a house, new tools, a car, whatever, and it's likely that the investment will go at least OK-ish. It means banks can feel safer about lending, which is kind of a central part of our current economic model and one of our primary tools of wealth creation.

Now, if you've read my other two economic posts, you're probably thinking I'm going to explain how everything's fucked and how we're all doomed, which is a gross exaggeration and I...

Why everything's fucked

I could apologize for that easy joke, but I asked myself if I should just because I could, and my answer is no.

So, in short : money move fast, is good. So logically, if money move slow, is bad, right ? Exactly. So the question then is : what makes money go slow ? Well, a bunch of stuff can.

For instance, a low amount of existing money, AKA the money supply. People like hoarding what's rare and what has value, so valuable rare stuff is prime hoarding material. Keeping in mind that TOO MUCH money can also be bad due to hyperinflation, something that causes shudders of horror in prudish teenagers prowling DeviantArt (no, I will not change my joke) and in Germans in general (I use "cahs wheelbarrow" in attack mode to trigger generational trauma).

Another factor would be how easy it is to pay for stuff. For instance, if you have to go to the bank to take money out of your account each time you need to pay for something, unexpected/impulse buying is far less likely, if only because of the hassle. If you can pay with a credit card (and even more so if you can check your account in real time), you're more likely to feel confident buying things, which in turn means you'll buy stuff, which keeps the money moving.

Last big factor we'll see is economic actor behaviour. "Can I start blaming billionaires now?" Patience my dear, I'm giving you a reason. So, how economic actors behave has an impact on the economy, amazing discovery, next, scientists claim ocean is made of water. But more seriously, if you're putting money aside you're reducing money velocity by creating, I guess you could call it an economic drainage lake which you fill with your savings.

Now, that money isn't entirely out of the system, since you're most likely shoving it into a savings account which can then serve as a backing for banks to loan money (how did you think interests were accrued?) so it's still going through the system, even if far slower than if you spend it.

Those bank loans can still be given to consummers buying big things (like houses) and to companies looking to develop, and that still keeps the economy running, right ? Normally, yes.

"Is it time to blame Capitalism and billionaires yet?" you ask, and yes, yes it is.

So, why do we blame them now ? Easy : there's a second economic circuit that's going perfectly fine, the financial one. If we look at the entire system, there's plenty of movement of money on the stock markets, even without taking speculation into account which ... is a whole other subject I may have to look at later. The main issue is that this financial economic circuit is not as connected as the traditional one as it perhaps should be, which means the money injected into that circuit has a worrying tendency to STAY in that circuit. How ? Well ...

Investors put cash into a company, then they expect dividents. Those dividends are used to put more cash in the company or in other companies, and since monkey brain like number big, investors ask for MORE dividends, which means you need to cut costs somewhere, like for instance employees. That money is still pushing economic activity, it's still creating wealth, but that wealth is focused in a rather small group and is based on the inherently unstable stock markets, which means that it can evaporate whenever investors have a collective tantrum. There's also the fact that, despite the large sums of money involved, that particular mass of money moves far slower than the money used by consummers.

Second big issue : the drainage great lakes. You're not the only one to have savings, the 1% have savings too, except theirs are proportional to how much cash they have. Now, to be clear, most of their wealth is in assets, not in cash, but they still DO have cash, and as you are no doubt aware, they aren't too thrilled when asked to pay taxes. Taxation is theft and all that bullshit spewed by people opposed to snake BDSM.

Like I pointed out, savings aren't inherently bad, they slow down the flow of money a bit, but do not stop it, and in fact allow for crucial investments that produce new wealth. No, the main issue is where those savings are. Tax havens, a well known term for places where money is put to stay hidden and, sometimes, to be laundered. Well, these puppies form, in effect, giant financial retention dams, where rivers of cash are poured in and trickles come out.

Most of the money put in tax havens don't return to the economy they come from. And, to be perfectly honest, they don't go into the tax haven's economy either. It just ... sits there. Hoardingly.

Proportionally, the tax havens have less of an impact than the parallel financial circuit, but they are visible and, most importantly, symptomatic of a way of thinking, of acting, of hoarding wealth and value.

So yeah, that's money velocity, or how fast money goes in the economy. Put simply, our system is currently obsessed with the stock market due to a systemic gambling addiction and has forgotten that the basis of a consumption economy is the consummer, which uh ... is generally in a less than ideal situation right now.

Now, when this topic was suggested to me, "trickle down" economics was mentionned, with the suggestion that I show how it's a scam. Well, I think it's already done fairly well with the above, as the system set up to "trickle down" was what spawned the financial circuit and allowed wealth monopilzation that spawned the tax haven problem on its current scale.

But I feel I should go further.

Is trickle down economics doomed to fail in all cases ? No, it can work actually ! It's just like unregulated Capitalism or Real Communism(tm), it can work if you just do this one simple, cheap, easy thing : replace all humans with robots bound by a strict programming.

Like many other economic or political ideas, "trickle down economics", in its stated goal and ideal functionning, is predicated and dependant on being populated purely and entirely by good faith actors. Adding any degree of human interference leads to the idealized system collapsing in one way or another.

This leaves two options :

Reagan and co were unerringly naive and incapable of considering the possibility humans could act selfishly or in a way that didn't match their vision.

They knew and were counting on it, and only sold the ideal as a sugar coating for the bullshit.

I'll let you pick which one is more likely.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

I struggle to express just how unsurprised I am. I am also not surprised by how flimsy the argument as, not going further than an affirmation. Fuck, even the people saying that the Houthi sex-and-chattel slavery is actually a "paternalistic relationship between different social classes" are making more of an effort in justifying their horseshit.

Also from "Me too" to "Rape of jewish women can be excused as an act of palestinian resistance".

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Tarrifs, shmariffs, what do ?

Grrrrreeeting my dear Tumblr users, it is I, random economy oriented Tumblr User that was onces convinced his blog was gonna be about ships (and not those on water).

I come to you bringing explanations on tarriffs, what they do, what they bring and what their consequences are, since they are kind of a big topic right now, what with Trump and all. "But Mr. Rando, I already know!" you say, and I believe you, and I am proud of you, but much like in my irl class, not everyone has the same knowledge base, so even if it's a bit tedious for you, we have to cover the topic so everyone is on the same page. Alright ? Swell.

So, what is a tarriff ? A tarriff is a tax levied on importations. AKA, you buy something from out-of-country and get it into the country, you pay the tarriff. Many of you will have seen the memes and viral posts, and will triumphantly point at the part where I say the importer pay the tarriffs. And you are right to do that, it's kind of very important. It's the main point, even.

Why is it the main point ? Easy : if outside stuff cost more, inside stuff better choice. Or, in non-caveman speach : the increase in cost on foreign products and resources will either increase the competitivity of domestic products and resources, or level the playing field. At least that's the idea.

"So", I hear you ask, "are you going to be the Nth user here to tell us that tarriffs are going to fuck the average US citizen over? Because we already know that."

Well, yes, but also know. Also, I'm not sure you have the nuance on the topic, and I do love me some tasty, tasty nuance. And custard. But alas, custard is not the topic of today. Economic nuance is. Now, onto the topic :

The main question to ask here is "what is getting hit by the tarriffs ?" Because the impact will vary a lot depending on what gets hit. To give a simplified framework, there's 3 types of economic goods : raw resources, transformed goods and finished products.

Raw resources are ... raw. Iron ore, lumber, clay, wheat grain, lithium ore, water, dirt, raw oil, you get the idea. Those resources tend to have razor thin profitability margins, because so much is produced.

So, what would be the goal of tarriffs on raw resources ? Well, that would be protecting or developping in-country extraction/production facilities, whether those be mines, farms, fishing fleet or lumber mills.

And that's where a tiny little factor comes into play : economic viability, AKA whether a given activity in a specific region is economically interesting.

Like I said, raw resources tend to have razor thin profitability margins, this means that overwhelmingly, raw resources are extracted in regions that allow lower costs.

Some of those costs can be reduced in costlier economies, like environmental or safety costs, with some good ol' deregulation ... up to a point. Even the notoriously protest-averse USA would face some degree of protests if all safety regulations disappeared and industrial accidents jumped 5000%. Poorer countries tend to be more lax on those regulations, and/or not really enforce them, or both.

On the other hand, there are costs that can't be reduced all that much in a given economy, like the cost of manpower. Due to the cost of living, there's a limit to how low you can go with your offered wages. For instance, offering $12 a day in the USA will yield fuck all in terms of recruitment, but $6 a day in the poorer parts of Africa will cause a flash mob of eager-to-work candidates.

And these are the two big factors of the equation : can the reducible costs be lowered enough that the irreducible costs aren't that much of an issue anymore ? And when the answer is inevitably no, can the tarriffs bridge the gap ? Well, uh ... that's gonna depend a lot. But overall, I would lean more on "no". African iron will be cheaper than US iron every day for the foreseeable future, unless you impose a fucking ungodly amount of tarriffs.

Some resources that cost more will see better results from tarriffs, but far from all. Like, tarriffs on iron, copper, tin, etc ? Bad idea. Tarriffs on helium, lithium or other rarer and costlier resources ? Could protect or help the national production indutry.

In the cases where, even with tarriffs, outside product remain more competitive, there's just going to be an increase in cost down the line, and wealth is just going to exist the country more. In the cases where the inside product becomes more-or-as competitive, then perhaps wealth can remain in the country and help the economy. But, well, we'll get to it later.

Raw resources, done. Two more to go.

Transformed goods (henceforth TG for simplicity) ! They are everywhere and they make up the bulk of international trade. Phone parts ? TGs. Flour ? TG, mostly. Tires ? Eyup, TGs. Radars ? TG. Ink? Oh you bet it's a TG.

So, what would be the aim of tarriffs on TGs? Protecting national industry, giving it room to develop or maybe even forcing multinationals to relocate/create the industry inside the country.

So, TGs are where globalization starts clashing really, really bad with tarriffs. Because you see, with globalization, there's been a global dispatching of production facilities. So you'll have part A that's produced in Italy with resources from Greece, part B that's made in Australia with Indonesian resources, part C that's made in Brazil with stuff from Zambia, etc.

the funky stuff happens when you need to combine parts A and C in a US plant, but then have to send the result over to Mexico to weld part B on top. And then you have to get it back into the US. Double tarrifs, you say? Yepperino, my dear student, double tarrifs. On this incredibly simplified exemple. Imagine what that looks like when there's 3 or 4 more parts involved.

At that point the question is : is it cheaper to pay the tarriff conga line or to just send the US parts of the production line overseas ?

"That sounds like the opposite of the stated goal" you say, with the blazé impassivity of someone that saw it coming a hundred miles away. Yes, yes it does. That's why tarriffs have to be manipulated very, very carefully, especially on transformed goods and intermediate steps of the production process, because it can stack up real fast, real bad.

Sometimes though, paying the tarriff conga line IS the better option, especially for sensitive processes that require a well-trained workforce with in-depth theoretical knowledge of very specific fields and access to training for cutting-edge machines, which is only found in the United Staaaaa ... what do you mean, Europe ?

So yeah, very sensitive, tarriff with care. And in either case, expect cost increases, which WILL be recouped with increased sale prices, leading to a domino effect.

And now, the finished products. The end of the line. The consumer targeted stuff. What you buy online and in shops.

What's the aim of tarriffs here ? Same as before, protect native industry, give it room to develop and force multinationals to relocate the production plant into the country.

At this level, you'll see similar considerations as with the TGs, with one tiny added funky detail : the costs of the two previous steps pile up here. Indeed, the tarriffs on TGs and raw ressources are liable to eat up the profit margins of the finished products, and since profit margins are sacred and must be preserved at all costs, well the simple solution is to simply increase the price of the end product in proportion to the other cost increases. And that means shit costs more for people.

"Well, that's awful" you say, and you are right. But we're getting started. It's time for another trip through early 2000s deviantart, say it with me : INFLATION !!! Except instead of your favourite character being turned into a balloon, we're talking about the content of your wallet losing value. And it's going to hit every industry that has to suffer those tarriffs. At which point the entirety of society faces a dillemma : do we increase salaries accross the board (with the associated widespread price increases) or are we chill with a global reduction in the amount of shit people can buy ?

And that's where it starts getting funky (derogatory, fear inducing), because if enough industries are hit with tarriffs, either choice is bad.

Increase salaries ? You speed up inflation and reduce confidence in your money, making exports admitedly more interesting but imports far less so, and when you are a globalized economy where there are imports everywhere at various levels, it gets spiky really fast.

Going the "tough luck fucko" route ? Well first off, rude, second off : congratulations, you are reducing the overall economic activity in your country, creating unemployment and poverty, reducing confidence in your economy and, if things go really, really poorly, starting a recession (WHOOOOO!!! Who wants to sleep under a bridge ?).

Now, is this a doomer prophecy ? No. No it's not. We have to keep in mind that systems, including economic systems, can adjust their course after starting in a new direction. It's rather unlikely that everything will consistently go bad in the worst way possible. But.

A lot of that is dependant on precision political decision-making, and the person soon-to-be in charge of these decisions in the USA has made it clear that he does not intend to listen to outside opinions or do precision. And considering his last go at it, I believe him. So I'm not optimistic. I don't think the US economy will collapse, that would be absurd, but I don't see the US having a good time either.

It's going to be very, very complicated, and it will depend a LOT on what fields are actually affected, in what proportions, etc.

And keep in mind, I haven't even talked about retaliatory tarriffs (from the people whose products you put tarriffs on). Or political tensions inside the US, that's something I don't feel qualified to talk about. Or the non-economic effects on geopolitics. Or the effects on the global economy.

If I had to make a prediction, I would guess that quite a few production lines will be reorganized to either have long stretches inside the USA or to be entirely divorced from them for as long as possible. Some products may become economically non-viable when it comes to the USA. Some US companies may find themselves no longer economically viable due to reliance on tarriff-affected outside goods and resources. It's hard to guess how large the impact will be, but there WILL be an impact, and most of it will likely be felt by the USA. Because tarriffs aren't paid on expedition, they're paid on reception.

So, as a French, all I can say is : bonne chance.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

My culturally christian goy ass can't help but find it funny how, despite some rather HEAVY history, the various christian crosses have never been called symbols of fascism.

Because uh ... there's been some pretty heinous shit done under those crosses, including rather recently. But somehow ...

If you see articles and tweets about how the Star of David is now a symbol of fascism and think to yourself "maybe they have a point," then whatever you define as your antizionism has absolutely crossed the line into antisemitism

The Star of David is one of the most important symbols in Judaism. The fact that it is on the flag of Israel does not make it fascist. The government of Israel is separate from the symbol. Labeling such a widely used symbol by a marginalized people as fascist is incredibly dangerous and seeks to conflate Jews as a whole with the Israeli government- something antizionists continually claim people shouldn't do. So why are some doing it?

High control groups slowly ease you into believing nonsensical things. They provide "reasoning" and "logic" which goes largely unchallenged within echo chambers. People in these echo chambers are prone to believing it because they start to see it as real logic instead of bigoted, twisted reasoning. Even otherwise intelligent people can fall for their prejudices as they begin to view it as a form of justice

It is a fantasy that high control group leaders go from 0 to 100 in five minutes or refuse to answer any questions- they are usually much more manipulative

Please confront your biases. The Jews are tired

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Also to note : this is from Groland, a program that's all about rude humor, jokes on the more socially unacceptable subjects, from sex to shit and more, gore occasionally. It's a transgressive program.

They chose to make their joke about disrespecting the transphobes. They could have made a horrifyingly transphobic joke, it wouldn't have been that far from some of the stuff they did. Instead, they shit on the transphobes.

And I think that's beautiful.

This meme is inescapable on French insta so I'm posting it here for all to enjoy

[lordadmiralfarsight]

Women and queer are not obligated to coddle bigots, absolutely, but maybe creating new ones with violent misandry isn't the best idea.

And as someone that escaped the alt-right pipeline of the early 2010s : the misandy spewed by some leftist and/or queer circles was their bread, butter and meat. They built their WHOLE content on that, to give the impression that men were soon to be under siege, to be hunted and destroyed.

When I was in that pipeline, I saw frankly deranged posts that were wildly upvoted. Flawed studies with unrepresentative samples made in one specific US university used to claim that all men, worldwide, have a 33% chance or higher to be rapists. (That stat, fucked up and false as it is, still came up in political debate in my country of France 2 years ago. The far right are well after that.)

Utopian fantasies where men were dehumanized past 15, sent to live like animals in the forest, alone and without clothing or tools.

Degradation gallore, posts questioning if men had souls or were even human, broad generalizations, demonization, etc, etc.

When that was their content, it was horrifyingly easy for them to sell adherence to essentialism, because their essentialism became a shield you could rally behind, to avoid the suffering and dehumanization promised by the other side. And the threat of what that other side would do helped to reduce principled stances.

When you feel like you're under an existential threat, you're far less selective of the people you stand for, because you need someone to stand with you.

And how did they create that feeling of existential threat ? By pointing out freely shared opinions that got accepted by leftwing and/or queer spaces without contest. By painting these opinions as the majority. By pointing out leftwing essentialism. And it fed their own.

Wanna know one thing that really helped pull me away from that pipeline ? When a proud feminist became a Minister and changed the legal definition of rape so that men could also be protected.

Essentialism feeds essentialism.

Compassion feeds compassion.

Chose what you want to see flourish.

I hope this isn't too far off the mark @musashi, but I think explaining what it looks like from the perspective of those young men is important.

posts about the alt-right pipeline being compassionate towards young men while radical leftists shun and shame them are not fucking saying "the men are becoming violent because feminists are too mean!" and if that is your takeaway you need to get off tumblr until you've better honed your critical thinking skills.

those posts are talking about how effective the language and approach you take in your activism can be. this is literally cult deprogramming 101. if someone is being taken in by a violent or dangerous group, that violent or dangerous group is usually offering them compassion and solace while working hard to convince them everyone else in the world is their enemy. you are under no obligation to coddle or act compassionate toward these men and their violent ideologies, but if you have the means to try, it is something that you can do to make a tangible difference.

radicalized people are often only one loving friend or family member or external voice away from being de-radicalized. of course that is not always the case, but it very often is. a lot of y'all rightfully understand that you do not carry the burden of being that voice, but a lot of y'all also have a lot of internalized ideas about morals and punitive justice and have simply written off these people as deserving of only the worst and not worth saving.

ten years ago, my grandmother was a fox news watching republican who voted red in every election and very well could have fallen down the qanon rabbit hole if not for me and her daughter challenging her compassionately, walking her through hypotheticals that validated her feelings & proving why they were false, & being patient with her despite our extreme division in political ideology. it was frustrating fucking work! but i decided i wanted to do it, because i could see the horizon and i could see me making a difference!

"misogynists have been saying feminists are too mean for years, get new material" that is not the fucking POINT. the point is that you, feminist, can be the compassionate voice that guides your brother, your father, your cousin, your grandfather away from fucking becoming or staying a nazi. you can show them compassion and companionship. you can be the woman they think of when their alt-right bros try to convince them that women are the enemy. and you can choose to crystallize that image of yourself so wholly in their mind's eye as worth protecting that they may very well choose to reject those harmful ideas.

it's not saying you HAVE to do it! it's saying you CAN do it! don't you 'firebomb a walmart' people all love taking change into your own hands? where the fuck is that energy right now, huh?

[lordadmiralfarsight]

The left SUCKS at recruiting people. And so many of you are part of the problem.

The talk about centrists and moderates being the literal devil I see constantly in online leftist spaces is one great example of the left's failure. Yes, it sucks when the people don't see how horrible the right is. But centrists are some of the most open people to discussion- and some already lean left!!

You can't demonize moderates to such an extent that you close yourself off to them and then wonder why you're losing swing states.

Centrists aren't even always people with all the privileges- you will find plenty of people who are part of marginalized groups who are concerned about politicians on all sides.

You can be a smol radical leftist bean all you want who only talks to other smol socialist and communist beans, but you're never going to make the difference you want to in the world that way. It's the cold, hard truth. It doesn't mean you have to engage in discourse with everyone- some people have no real hope of changing and are emotionally draining- just more than your bubble.

I am tired of the left eating itself alive and deranged people like Trump winning.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

I am ... extremely worried for the upcoming match in France. I know our government has promised to increase security but ... well, our track record isn't as good as I'd wish. Even in recent or very recent times.

I know some people are gonna try to spin the Amsterdam pogrom as Epic Anti-Zionist Activism but

A lot of Nazi apologists are already lying and making stuff up to justify the Dutch Nazis' actions here. Anything you see that's trying to spin this as anything other than a horrifying hate crime should be fact-checked thoroughly

Massacring Jews in Amsterdam, whether they're Dutch Jews or Israeli Jews or any other kind of Jews, does literally nothing to help Palestine. Hard to spin your actions as in support of Palestinians when they do not help Palestinians

Setting aside the horrific mass murder because the people this post is about don't care about that, the most likely effects of this pogrom will be: A. Netanyahu gets to look heroic for sending a rescue mission for the survivors, which will make it harder for him to be ousted from power; B. it's a demonstration that Jews cannot trust and are not safe around gentiles, and anyone who understands how radicalisation works can tell you exactly how the Israeli far-right will use that. You cannot spin your actions as pro-Palestinian if anyone with half a brain could tell you your actions will directly lead to more Palestinian deaths.

Also, anyone whose response to this is just "op is a Zionist don't listen to them lol" is inherently untrustworthy.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

An excellent addition to my post, yes. And in fact, food production is only one field that would be hit, all hard labor fields : mining, farming, logging, cleaning ...

And it DOES have a knock on effect which is quite deleterious, leading to higher manpower costs accross the board and, as a result, increased prices on everything.

As for the external support you mention ... well, the fact is that Russia's economy is mostly geared towards ressource exports, in particular energy ressources (oil and gas). And that increase in price can only be compensated so far by the collapse of the ruble on the exchange markets. I personnally think that's why they've started exchanging goods-for-goods, such as recent exchanges with Pakistan where chickpeas were exchanged for mandarins (the fruits, not the chinese officials, they aren't even called that nowadays). I expect more such trade deals will occur, in more fields. But, as in all things, that only goes so far. The question now is indeed how long until the collapse. And considering the need for troops on the frontlines and the rythm of casualty increase ... I don't see the army stopping with the high salaries, which means in turn that the economic situation of Russia won't improve ... and it may also not remain stable, but rather worsen. Russia is getting to the end of a fair few ropes (soviet arms reserves, economic viability of a LOT of industrial fields, cash reserves ...) and apparently in very close timeframes. It's gonna be rather spicy ...

A little lesson in economy and why a high inflation/interest rate combo will fuck you up something fierce

Greetings fellow hellsiters, it is I, a random dude from the economy/business side of tumblr. Yes it exists. No we aren't making money.

But of money I shall talk, namely Russian money. A money called and in rubbles.

"Dear Admiral", I hear you say -very politely, too- "That 21% number is scary, but still, isn't calling the Rubble a pile of rubbles excessive?"

Mayhaps a bit, but let me explain, and you will understand why I am engaging in this bit of mischievous exageration.

First off, because I know some tankies will stumble upon my post should it ever break containment, let me be clear : the numbers mentionned in this article, both the 21% central bank interest rate, and the 9.8% inflation in septembre, are official figures by the Russian government. CNBC didn't invent them, I sure as hell didn't invent them and, hopefully, the Russian government didn't invent them either.

Second, let us define clearly what each term means : 1) Inflation : the rate at which prices increase over a given period (typically, year on year). This makes it also, in effect, the rate at which money loses purchasing power. 2) Interest rate : the rate at which interests accumulate over a given period (here again, the typical period is a year). Interests are, of course, to be paid, so it's money you have to pay on top of the loan you took (said loan having an interest rate). 3) Central bank interest rate : the rate at which the central bank gives loans to market-facing banks. AKA, the rate at which the government loans money to banks to finance the economy. The higher that rate is, the lower the economic activity, because it becomes harder AND less interesting to get loans.

All set ? Ravishing ! Let's start then.

First off, the 21% central bank interest rate. This means that Russian banks are incredibly unlikely to give loans, and the loans are likely to be at, quite honestly, brutal rates. Because, you see, banks like to make money on the loans they give, it's kind of important for their financing and to pay the interests on the savings stuffed in their coffers. So that means that market facing banks will only be able to give loans that allow them to face that 21% interest rate, which uh ... well there's not that many. It's a very high interest rate right there. And while they could conceivably find ways to offer lower interest rates with a variety of financial stratagems ... that can only go so far.

So they'll give fewer loans, with much stricter conditions. And even then, there's the question of IF someone will seek out those loans, because you see ...

From the client's point of view, this is a nightmare. And to be clear, I am talking about the CLIENTS, the companies and professionnals, not the customers/consummers. They will suffer from that too, but the impact on them isn't what I'm focusing on and also I'm a bit more shaky on that, so feel free to complete in the comments if you feel like it.

So, the clients, the firms and companies, big and small, that need loans. Before they take a loan, they need a development project, and that project must have a return on investment (or ROI) that is higher than the interest rate. Said otherwise, it must be able to pay for the loan. Now I want you to think carefully about the economy and find the one, single, unique economic actor that can promise a 18% or 20% or 25% rate of ROI.

You found it ? You have shouted their name in jubilation in from of your PC, delighted at having the right answer ?

Yes, you are right, let's say it ALL TOGETHER !!! Scammers.

Fucking scammers.

They're the only ones to promise those rates. And unlike banks and companies, they have a distinct competitive advantage : they don't keep their word. That's what makes them scammers, after all.

Why are scammers the only ones to promise those rates ? Because they're god damn unrealistic. Can you have products that have a profit margin above 20% ? Sure ! In luxury fields ! But then there's a host of other costs that come a-knocking that don't factor into production but are necessary to maintain the brand.

But is the Russian economy made up of luxury brands ? Lmao nope.

And here's the funny thing, damn near every company needs loans nowadays. They need them to buy new machines, create new production units, face unexpected problems, manage seasonal down-time, and so on and so forth. Lots of cases where companies need loans. And those loans need to have a decent enough ROI, or the alternative needs to be worse than not taking the loan.

You can't really control unexpected problems (like an entire machine going tits up because Boris Embezzelovitch used the maintenance money to buy a hottub for his dacha) or seasonal down-times in activity, so those loans can't be escaped. That means some companies will have no choice but to take those violently unfavorable loans to face those situations. Pretty bad.

But surely, the Economy can be saved by brave entrepreneurs fueled by patriotism-flavored vodka and a passion of Rossiya Rodina, right ? Lol. Lmao even.

Now, I am a teacher, and that is now your problem. Exercise time !! I'm going to give you a list of exemples, and I want you to find what development project they can do to get a ROI of at least 20%.

The list : - A toiler paper company - A canned vegetable company - A shoemaking company - A software development company - A construction company Give yourself a little time, think carefully on it. I believe in you. Juuuust a few more minutes, aaaaaand done !

Now, let's see your answers. "Fuck all" ? Correct ! You are absolutely right, there's fuck all they can invest in that can beat that interest rate. You are also very correct in pointing out the bit I wrote slightly above about scammers. You are doing fantastic !

So, if loans are out, what can Russian companies do to expand, develop and/or modernize their equipment ? Well, they would have to rely on self-financing, also known as savings for flesh people.

And that's when you relive a long forgotten experience, a casual scroll through DeviantArt in the early 2010s, when suddenly inflation comes into the picture, unexpected and mildly frightening.

What's the rate ? 9.8% in September. Which means that, in Russia, prices were 9.8% higher in September 2024 than in September 2023. Said otherwise, the same person, with the same income, could buy 10% less one year later. that stings. And it applies to companies too !

One of the big drivers of inflation is the increase in salaries, lead proudly by the Russian MoD to lure more people under the flag to shoot and get shot. Russia offers soldier salaries that are much higher than the market rate, which has a knock on effect.

But, much more importantly for this lesson, it means that the more you wait around with savings, the less they're worth. So the only option for a Russian company to develop itself ... is to bet on savings that are depreciating rather fast.

"So they just won't develop then, right ?" You ask. Pretty much, yeah. The Russian economy is likely going to go into a holding pattern, with companies holding on for dear life in hopes of weathering the storm. Now make a link with what I said about accidents and seasonal down-times. Yeeeaaah, it's not just you, the whole thing just stinks.

Now, consider that it's the whole economy that faces that situation. ALL Russian companies. And that means that, statistically speaking, there WILL be strategic companies that suffer, and I'm not just talking of MIC companies. Remember the toilet paper company from above ? Yeah, what consequences if it goes down ? Yes, the canned veggies company too, but also the farms that supply it. What about mines, like iron mines, do you think those are important ? Would be pretty fucked up if their equipment broke down and they couldn't replace it and had no choice but to close down, yeah ?

Weird how large the "strategic company" umbrella can get in those cases, huh?

Oh but sure, they can buy from outside ... whiiiiiiich is a tad bit more complicated when your foreign currency reserves are either confiscated or almost empty and your money's worth has dug past bedrock and is putting in a valiant effort to join the Zimbabwean dollar in swimming through the mantle.

So, what's my prediction ? Closedowns. A LOT of closedowns, accross the spectrum of the Russian economy. The only way I see to avoid that would be for Russia to disengage from Ukraine (which they ain't doing, let's be real) or for Putin to spend such an absurd amount of cash supporting the Russian economy that he empties the treasury in 3 months max ... followed by mass closedowns. And those closedowns will not be replaced, because developping or creating a company will cost so fucking much, which will create holes in the market, driving higher prices on the remaining products.

Salaries are unlikely to go back down too much, what with the number of dead and infirm in Ukraine. Immigration is also not a panacea, because after the ISIS attack there's a surge of xenophobia, especially against central-asians, exactly the people that are nearby and can speak Russian. Add in the fact that Western sanctions are unlikely to be lifted after the war, that means the thick layer of costs and uncertainty they add will not disappear.

Is this the magic solution ? Is Russia going to collapse litterally tomorrow ? No.

But it's a sign, a clear and visible sign of very, very, very poor economic health. Russia is not doing good at all. It will not do good at all for a fair bit after.

And mind you, that's if inflation is indeed at 9.8%, and that's not certain considering how many economic indicators the Russian government is hiding and/or manipulating. It could be higher. Not lower though, if it was they'd say it.

And that, dear reader, is why it is bad and painful to have both high inflation and high interest rates together for a long time. And somehow, that's still better than if the interest rates were low, because then you'd get hyperinflation, and much like its fetish equivalent, you need a very specific mindset divorced from real life consequences to want that, because holy shit the consequences are gruesome.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

There was only one bed.

Only one bed in the entire room, but so tired were they, they never questionned it. They never questionned the strange, matt quality of the walls, or the strangely dry feel of the bedframe. They never questionned why the bed was already warm, as if a person had been there just before their arrival.

There was only one bed, and they collapsed in it, exhausted, so terribly exhausted, more exhausted than they had ever been before.

And come morning ... there was only one bed.

Writer: There Was Only One Bed…

Smut fans: *gasp!!!!!*

Writer: So They Spooned All Night And The Brooding One Allowed Themselves To Feel Vulnerable For The First Time In Years And The Chirpy One Got Some Quality Snuggles

Fluff fans: *GASP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*

[lordadmiralfarsight]

A little lesson in economy and why a high inflation/interest rate combo will fuck you up something fierce

Greetings fellow hellsiters, it is I, a random dude from the economy/business side of tumblr. Yes it exists. No we aren't making money.

But of money I shall talk, namely Russian money. A money called and in rubbles.

"Dear Admiral", I hear you say -very politely, too- "That 21% number is scary, but still, isn't calling the Rubble a pile of rubbles excessive?"

Mayhaps a bit, but let me explain, and you will understand why I am engaging in this bit of mischievous exageration.

First off, because I know some tankies will stumble upon my post should it ever break containment, let me be clear : the numbers mentionned in this article, both the 21% central bank interest rate, and the 9.8% inflation in septembre, are official figures by the Russian government. CNBC didn't invent them, I sure as hell didn't invent them and, hopefully, the Russian government didn't invent them either.

Second, let us define clearly what each term means : 1) Inflation : the rate at which prices increase over a given period (typically, year on year). This makes it also, in effect, the rate at which money loses purchasing power. 2) Interest rate : the rate at which interests accumulate over a given period (here again, the typical period is a year). Interests are, of course, to be paid, so it's money you have to pay on top of the loan you took (said loan having an interest rate). 3) Central bank interest rate : the rate at which the central bank gives loans to market-facing banks. AKA, the rate at which the government loans money to banks to finance the economy. The higher that rate is, the lower the economic activity, because it becomes harder AND less interesting to get loans.

All set ? Ravishing ! Let's start then.

First off, the 21% central bank interest rate. This means that Russian banks are incredibly unlikely to give loans, and the loans are likely to be at, quite honestly, brutal rates. Because, you see, banks like to make money on the loans they give, it's kind of important for their financing and to pay the interests on the savings stuffed in their coffers. So that means that market facing banks will only be able to give loans that allow them to face that 21% interest rate, which uh ... well there's not that many. It's a very high interest rate right there. And while they could conceivably find ways to offer lower interest rates with a variety of financial stratagems ... that can only go so far.

So they'll give fewer loans, with much stricter conditions. And even then, there's the question of IF someone will seek out those loans, because you see ...

From the client's point of view, this is a nightmare. And to be clear, I am talking about the CLIENTS, the companies and professionnals, not the customers/consummers. They will suffer from that too, but the impact on them isn't what I'm focusing on and also I'm a bit more shaky on that, so feel free to complete in the comments if you feel like it.

So, the clients, the firms and companies, big and small, that need loans. Before they take a loan, they need a development project, and that project must have a return on investment (or ROI) that is higher than the interest rate. Said otherwise, it must be able to pay for the loan. Now I want you to think carefully about the economy and find the one, single, unique economic actor that can promise a 18% or 20% or 25% rate of ROI.

You found it ? You have shouted their name in jubilation in from of your PC, delighted at having the right answer ?

Yes, you are right, let's say it ALL TOGETHER !!! Scammers.

Fucking scammers.

They're the only ones to promise those rates. And unlike banks and companies, they have a distinct competitive advantage : they don't keep their word. That's what makes them scammers, after all.

Why are scammers the only ones to promise those rates ? Because they're god damn unrealistic. Can you have products that have a profit margin above 20% ? Sure ! In luxury fields ! But then there's a host of other costs that come a-knocking that don't factor into production but are necessary to maintain the brand.

But is the Russian economy made up of luxury brands ? Lmao nope.

And here's the funny thing, damn near every company needs loans nowadays. They need them to buy new machines, create new production units, face unexpected problems, manage seasonal down-time, and so on and so forth. Lots of cases where companies need loans. And those loans need to have a decent enough ROI, or the alternative needs to be worse than not taking the loan.

You can't really control unexpected problems (like an entire machine going tits up because Boris Embezzelovitch used the maintenance money to buy a hottub for his dacha) or seasonal down-times in activity, so those loans can't be escaped. That means some companies will have no choice but to take those violently unfavorable loans to face those situations. Pretty bad.

But surely, the Economy can be saved by brave entrepreneurs fueled by patriotism-flavored vodka and a passion of Rossiya Rodina, right ? Lol. Lmao even.

Now, I am a teacher, and that is now your problem. Exercise time !! I'm going to give you a list of exemples, and I want you to find what development project they can do to get a ROI of at least 20%.

The list : - A toiler paper company - A canned vegetable company - A shoemaking company - A software development company - A construction company Give yourself a little time, think carefully on it. I believe in you. Juuuust a few more minutes, aaaaaand done !

Now, let's see your answers. "Fuck all" ? Correct ! You are absolutely right, there's fuck all they can invest in that can beat that interest rate. You are also very correct in pointing out the bit I wrote slightly above about scammers. You are doing fantastic !

So, if loans are out, what can Russian companies do to expand, develop and/or modernize their equipment ? Well, they would have to rely on self-financing, also known as savings for flesh people.

And that's when you relive a long forgotten experience, a casual scroll through DeviantArt in the early 2010s, when suddenly inflation comes into the picture, unexpected and mildly frightening.

What's the rate ? 9.8% in September. Which means that, in Russia, prices were 9.8% higher in September 2024 than in September 2023. Said otherwise, the same person, with the same income, could buy 10% less one year later. that stings. And it applies to companies too !

One of the big drivers of inflation is the increase in salaries, lead proudly by the Russian MoD to lure more people under the flag to shoot and get shot. Russia offers soldier salaries that are much higher than the market rate, which has a knock on effect.

But, much more importantly for this lesson, it means that the more you wait around with savings, the less they're worth. So the only option for a Russian company to develop itself ... is to bet on savings that are depreciating rather fast.

"So they just won't develop then, right ?" You ask. Pretty much, yeah. The Russian economy is likely going to go into a holding pattern, with companies holding on for dear life in hopes of weathering the storm. Now make a link with what I said about accidents and seasonal down-times. Yeeeaaah, it's not just you, the whole thing just stinks.

Now, consider that it's the whole economy that faces that situation. ALL Russian companies. And that means that, statistically speaking, there WILL be strategic companies that suffer, and I'm not just talking of MIC companies. Remember the toilet paper company from above ? Yeah, what consequences if it goes down ? Yes, the canned veggies company too, but also the farms that supply it. What about mines, like iron mines, do you think those are important ? Would be pretty fucked up if their equipment broke down and they couldn't replace it and had no choice but to close down, yeah ?

Weird how large the "strategic company" umbrella can get in those cases, huh?

Oh but sure, they can buy from outside ... whiiiiiiich is a tad bit more complicated when your foreign currency reserves are either confiscated or almost empty and your money's worth has dug past bedrock and is putting in a valiant effort to join the Zimbabwean dollar in swimming through the mantle.

So, what's my prediction ? Closedowns. A LOT of closedowns, accross the spectrum of the Russian economy. The only way I see to avoid that would be for Russia to disengage from Ukraine (which they ain't doing, let's be real) or for Putin to spend such an absurd amount of cash supporting the Russian economy that he empties the treasury in 3 months max ... followed by mass closedowns. And those closedowns will not be replaced, because developping or creating a company will cost so fucking much, which will create holes in the market, driving higher prices on the remaining products.

Salaries are unlikely to go back down too much, what with the number of dead and infirm in Ukraine. Immigration is also not a panacea, because after the ISIS attack there's a surge of xenophobia, especially against central-asians, exactly the people that are nearby and can speak Russian. Add in the fact that Western sanctions are unlikely to be lifted after the war, that means the thick layer of costs and uncertainty they add will not disappear.

Is this the magic solution ? Is Russia going to collapse litterally tomorrow ? No.

But it's a sign, a clear and visible sign of very, very, very poor economic health. Russia is not doing good at all. It will not do good at all for a fair bit after.

And mind you, that's if inflation is indeed at 9.8%, and that's not certain considering how many economic indicators the Russian government is hiding and/or manipulating. It could be higher. Not lower though, if it was they'd say it.

And that, dear reader, is why it is bad and painful to have both high inflation and high interest rates together for a long time. And somehow, that's still better than if the interest rates were low, because then you'd get hyperinflation, and much like its fetish equivalent, you need a very specific mindset divorced from real life consequences to want that, because holy shit the consequences are gruesome.

[lordadmiralfarsight]

I'd like to know what kind of nuance and historical context can be applied to the entire run of the 13+ centuries of the Arab slave trade, or to the modern Houthi slave trade, but not to the Atlantic slave trade.

Like, I was raised on the idea that the Atlantic slave trade was a horrific crime, it's even described as a crime against Humanity by law in my country of France, one of the perpetrators of that crime. But the Arab slave trade and/or the Houthi slave trade are excused by ... nuance and historical context.

So, what exactly is that nuance and historical context that is omitted and excuses those slave trades ?

Also from "Me too" to "Rape of jewish women can be excused as an act of palestinian resistance".

[lordadmiralfarsight]

hell yeah

[lordadmiralfarsight]

and now I want a shonen with over-the-top visuals and stupidly dramatic battles using food and chocolate guy being in it using all chocolate based weapons and techniques, including the chocobunshin or whatever it'd be called.

I need it for spiritual reasons.