thefundiedata

[thefundiedata]

A Complete Duggar Family Overview

J*** & Anna Duggar

Years Married: Too Many (16) Children: 7 (Mackynzie, Michael, Marcus, Meredith, Mason, Maryella, Madyson) Predicted Family Size: 7 children

John & Abbie Duggar

Years Married: 6 Children: 2 (Grace, Charlie) Predicted Family Size: 4 children (2026, 2029)

Stephen & Jana Wissmann

Years Married: 0 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 4 children (2025, 2027, 2029, 2032)

Derick & Jill Dillard

Years Married: 10 Children: 3 (Israel, Samuel, Frederick) Predicted Family Size: 7 children (2025, 2028, 2030, 2034)

Jessa & Ben Seewald

Years Married: 10 Children: 5 (Spurgeon, Henry, Ivy, Fern, George) Predicted Family Size: 9 children (2026, 2028, 2031, 2034)

Jeremy & Jinger Vuolo

Years Married: 8 Children: 2 (Felicity, Evangeline) + 1 on the way Predicted Family Size: 5 children (2028, 2032)

Joe & Kendra Duggar

Years Married: 7 Children: 4 (Garrett, Addison, Brooklyn, Justus) Predicted Family Size: 12 children (2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2037, 2039)

Josiah & Lauren Duggar

Years Married: 6 Children: 3 (Bella, Daisy, Ezra) Predicted Family Size: 11 children (2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2036, 2039, 2042)

Austin & Joy Forsyth

Years Married: 7 Children: 3 (Gideon, Evelyn, Gunner) Predicted Family Size: 8 children (2025, 2029, 2032, 2036, 2040)

Jed & Kate Duggar

Years Married: 3 Children: 2 (Truett, Nora) + 2 on the way Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036)

Jer & Hannah Duggar

Years Married: 2 Children: 2 Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2038, 2040)

Jason & Maddie Duggar

Years Married: 0 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 8 children (2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2033, 2036, 2038, 2041)

Justin & Claire Duggar

Years Married: 3 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 3 children (2025, 2032, 2039)

[thefundiedata]

How does this blog work?

Good question sent in, and one that I haven't tried to answer in a long time so I apologise if this doesn't make total sense. I'll go through the different data sets I use.

Family Specific Data I use specific family data for the Bates, Duggar and Rodrigues families to predict the start date of relationships and the length of new relationships. I take the average and the Standard Deviations for the start of courtships in each family and use that to predict when younger family members may start a relationship. I also average previous relationship lengths to predict when engagements and weddings will happen for new couples. For instance, the average Bates daughter starts a courtship at 20.79 years but the average Duggar daughter starts a courtship at 22.29 years. The first set will apply to Addee Bates, the second set to Hannie Duggar.

Maternal Multiplier This is probably my biggest data set as it includes previous generations and other fundie families I used to casually follow but no longer really look into.

It includes all the births I have ever tracked. Births are categorised by the age of the mother at the time of the birth. The categories are Under 25, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44 and 45+. I take the average of each age group to create a maternal multiplier, IE: how many times larger is the average for each group compared to the Under 25 category. For instance, the average Under 25 spacing is 532 days while the average 25-29 spacing is 628 days. This is roughly 1.179x the length of the Under 25 spacings.

First births after marriage don't qualify for this as they are statistically much quicker than all other births.

Post-Loss Spacing Quite simply, the mean average of all post-loss spacings on the spreadsheet, plus the Standard Deviation of the set. The average currently stands at 426 days and the Standard Deviation at 156 days. This makes it likely a post-loss birth will occur by 582 days after loss. Post-loss spacings aren't included in the maternal multiplier, second child multiplier etc. though loss data is if the couple announce when the lost pregnancy was due.

Second Child Multiplier As I said earlier, first children come much quicker than others in fundie families (and probably in a lot of families if my friendship group are anything to go by?) so are not much use in predicting when a second child will come. Instead, I have all the Bates, Duggar and Rodrigues couples in the spreadsheet to compare when their first and second children arrived. A multiplier is then created by dividing the second child spacing and the first child spacing. I then average all these different multipliers for the overall second child multiplier.

Currently, the quickest second child multiplier is Nurie Rodrigues at 0.91 (her second child spacing was quicker than her first) and the longest is Carlin Stewart at 3.13 (her second child came more than 3 times slower than her first).

The mean multiplier is 1.74. That means when a couple has only one child, their first child spacing is multiplied by 1.74 to predict their second child spacing.

Example: Tiffany Bates has had one child, but they are post-loss. Her loss data is used instead. Her estimated spacing for that first pregnancy was 738 days after marriage. To calculate her second child spacing, the following is used: 738 x 1.74 = 1,284 days. I would usually also apply the maternal multiplier to this... but this spacing is so large, I'm not following my own rules!

Third Child Onwards From the third child onwards, I take the mean of all used spacings (second child onwards, not post-loss) and multiply by the applicable maternal multiplier.

Example: The mean of all Erin Paine's applicable spacings is 618 days. This multiplied by 1.291 (the 30-34 maternal multiplier) is 783 days - so this is her predicted spacing for Baby 7.

[thefundiedata]

A Complete Bates Family Overview

Zach & Whitney Bates

Years Married: 11 in December Children: 5 (Bradley, Kaci, Khloe, Jadon, Lily) Predicted Family Size: 8 children (2026, 2028, 2031)

Brandon & Michael Keilen

Years Married: 9 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 0 children

Chad & Erin Paine

Years Married: 11 Children: 6 (Carson, Brooklyn, Everly, Holland, Finley, William) Predicted Family Size: 11 children (2025, 2027, 2030, 2032, 2035)

Lawson & Tiffany Bates

Years Married: 2 Children: 1 (William) Predicted Family Size: 4 children (2026, 2031, 2035)

Nathan & Esther Bates

Years Married: 3 Children: 2 (Kenna, Graham) Predicted Family Size: 7 children (2027, 2029, 2032, 2035, 2039)

John & Alyssa Webster

Years Married: 10 Children: 5 (Allie, Lexi, Zoey, Maci, Rhett) Predicted Family Size: (If they keep going) 10 children (2025, 2028, 2031, 2034, 2037)

Bobby & Tori Smith

Years Married: 7 in December Children: 5 (Kade, Kolter, Charlotte, Cambree, Weston) Predicted Family Size: 12 children (2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2037)

Trace & Lydia Bates

Years Married: 2 Children: 1 (Ryker) Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2025, 2026, 2028, 2029, 2031, 2032, 2034, 2036, 2038)

Evan & Carlin Stewart

Years Married: 5 Children: 2 (Layla, Zade) Predicted Family Size: 6 children (2025, 2029, 2034, 2038)

Kelton & Josie Balka

Years Married: 6 Children: 3 (Willow, Hazel, Miles) Predicted Family Size: 9 children (2026, 2029, 2033, 2036, 2040, 2044)

Travis & Katie Clark

Years Married: 3 in December Children: 2 (Hailey, Harvey) Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2026, 2028, 2031, 2033, 2036, 2038, 2042, 2045)

Jack & Emy Bates

Years Married: 1 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 5 children (2025, 2028, 2031, 2035, 2039)

[thefundiedata]

Do you have a post explaining how you predict? (How you get the spacing numbers, how the specific age data sets and maternal multiplier and stuff work)

I did on the previous blog before Tumblr deleted it, but that would probably be out of date now anyway. I'll see what I can get written up soon to explain some of the bits and pieces I use.

[thefundiedata]

Upcoming Events | November 2024 - April 2025

Not predicting for: Michaela Bates, Alyssa Bates and Joseph Duggar.

Just Occurred: Nathan and Esther Bates had their son, Graham Alan Bates, on 6th October. Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announced their third pregnancy on 15th October.

Confirmed Events: Jed and Kate Duggar are expecting twin girls. The girls will be their third and fourth children. Predicted birthday of 30th December.

Tentative Events: Josiah and Lauren Duggar may be expecting their fourth child. The spreadsheet was predicting a birth in February 2025, which matches with these suspicions.

Predicted Events: November: 27th - Kaylee and Jonathan Hill announce Baby 2 (2 SDs late).

December: 4th - Justin and Claire Duggar announce Baby 1 (10 SDs late). 20th - Jackson and Emerson Bates announce Baby 1 (2 SDs late) & Jill and Derick Dillard announce Baby 4*.

January: 17th - Samuel Rodrigues and Brianne Hessert get engaged.

February: 28th - Jana and Stephen Wissmann announce Baby 1.

March: 9th - Trace and Lydia Bates announce Baby 2* (1 SD late). 30th - Timothy and Heidi Rodrigues announce Baby 1.

April: 6th - Isaiah Bates and Sarah enter a courtship. 9th - Jason and Maddie Duggar announce Baby 1.

[thefundiedata]

Predicted Pregnancy Announcements by Year

2024 27th November - Kaylee Hill 4th December - Claire Duggar 20th December - Emerson Bates & Jill Dillard

2025 28th February - Jana Wissmann 9th March - Lydia Bates 30th March - Heidi Rodrigues 9th April - Maddie Duggar 15th April - Alyssa Webster 3rd May - Carlin Stewart 9th May - Hannah Duggar 19th June - Erin Paine 26th June - Whitney Bates 29th June - Joy Forsyth 4th July - Tori Smith 15th July - Nurie Keller 19th September - Abbie Duggar 19th December - Jessa Seewald

2026 13th January - Kate Duggar 4th March - Katie Clark 29th March - Josie Balka 6th August - Esther Bates 13th August - Tiffany Bates

Tentative Joe & Kendra are late for Baby 5. New predicted date of birth is 6th February 2025. Josiah & Lauren are predicted to have Baby 4 on 4th February 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Fundie Social Media October 2024

Lawson & Tiffany Bates, John & Abbie Duggar, James Duggar, Jill & Derick Dillard, Carlin & Evan Stewart, Nurie & Nathan Keller, Katie & Travis Clark, Josie & Kelton Balka, Joy & Austin Forsyth, Nathan & Esther Bates.

[thefundiedata]

Baby Vuolo 3 is on the way!

On Tuesday 15th October 2024, Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo shared they are expecting their third child through a YouTube video and a People Magazine article. The couple are already parents to Felicity and Evangeline.

Early, Late or On Time?

This pregnancy was very much late. Based on the miscarriage Jinger had between Felicity and Evangeline, her predicted pace for Baby 3 was 830 days. This would have meant a birth on 1st March 2023, which obviously didn't happen. This birth is predicted to be 746 days late, which is 3.73 SDs late.

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement

Jinger's previous pregnancies had been announced on Day 82 and Day 105. This gave her an average of announcing on Day 94 (13 weeks, 3 days). With this pregnancy, Jinger announced later, on Day 117 (16 weeks, 5 days). Her new average to announce is on Day 101 (14 weeks, 3 days).

Due Date

In her YouTube video, Jinger shares her estimated due date at the time was 27th March 2025. Without any further updates, I will use this to predict Baby 3's birth. In her previous deliveries, Jinger averaged giving birth 1 day after her due date. Therefore, this baby's predicted date of birth is 28th March 2025.

Impact on the Data

This has impacted the Maternal Multiplier a bit (with a higher average spacing in the 30-35 age bracket and a higher Standard Deviation in the same bracket). Hers is the second highest spacing in this age bracket after her sister, Jill's, miscarriage before Freddy's birth. It also impacts on Jinger and Jeremy's predicted pace for future pregnancies.

Baby Four?

If Jinger announces a fourth baby, which is very much not guaranteed given her comments in People magazine, ('So three or four. I don't know. But I think three is what I'm leaning towards right now'), she is predicted to do so in May 2028.

Pregnancy Announcement: 22nd May 2028 Date of Birth: 17th November 2028

Should they decide to keep going after a fourth baby, they are predicted to have a maximum of five children.

[thefundiedata]

Jinger just announced a pregnancy, gender reveal via blood test incoming. Data?

Will write and queue now but may hold off for if gender reveal comes before I publish and put that info in there.

I'm thinking if it's a boy, it might be their last, we'll see I guess.

[thefundiedata]

Data soon - guess that answers the question of when I would eventually have to say how late Jinger’s pregnancy was!

Breaking News: Baby Vuolo!

Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announced to people magazine that they are expecting their 3rd child due to arrive March of 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Updated Family Overview | Nathan & Esther Bates

Pre-Court: Late 2019 Courtship: October 2020 Engagement: May 2021 Marriage: October 2021

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: ~661 days.

Their Family: Kenna Joy Bates - October 2022 Graham Alan Bates - October 2024

So What's Next? Bates 3 is predicted to be announced in August 2026 for a birth in January 2027.

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Jason & Maddie Duggar

Pre Court: December 2023 Courtship: ~May 2024 Engagement: August 2024 Marriage: October 2024

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: ~292 days.

So What's Next? Duggar 1 is predicted to be born in October 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Meet Graham Alan Bates

On Sunday 6th October 2024, Nathan and Esther Bates announced the birth of their second child, Graham Alan Bates, on Instagram. Graham was born on 4th October and joins a big sister, Kenna Joy Bates. Graham was born three days early, which is slightly earlier than Kenna, who was born one day early.

Pregnancy Announcement Esther and Nathan Bates announced the pregnancy on 21st March 2024. Esther was on Day 80 of pregnancy at the time. This was much earlier than with Kenna (Day 117). Their new average is Day 99.

Gender Reveal The couple revealed Graham's gender on 1st June 2024. This was on Day 152 of pregnancy. This was slightly earlier than Kenna (Day 160) and their new average is Day 156.

They didn't announce his name until birth.

Effect on the Data As Graham's cousin, Harvey Clark, was due at the same time, I calculated the second child multiplier with both of their estimated due dates and finalised the data after they were both born. This means this data has been used for several months. If I hadn't done this, however, it would stand at 1.72 after Harvey's birth and at 1.74 after Graham's birth, which is a slight increase.

Graham was born 718 days after his sister. This will impact on Nathan and Esther's pace going forward. This data point multiplied by the maternal multiplier (which Graham's birth has also had a teeny impact on), gives them a predicted pace of 848 days.

What's Next? With all that being said, Nathan and Esther are predicted to have a third baby in just under 2 years, 4 months time.

Pregnancy Announcement: 3rd August 2026 Gender Reveal: 29th September 2026 Birth Date: 29th January 2027 Due Date: 31st January 2027

[thefundiedata]

This pertains to the posts, but what is SD? 1 SD late, 1 SD early...

It stands for 'Standard Deviation', which is a statistics term. Simply, it shows how spread out the data is from the mean. A smaller Standard Deviation means there's less variation from the mean and all the data is more consistent.

For instance, the Standard Deviation for post-loss spacings is 156 days, which means 68% of data points fall between 270 days and 582 days. The second child spacing standard deviation is 161 days, which is slightly greater. That means there's slightly more variance in that data set.

Hopefully the image above shows where data should fall on a typical standard deviation curve. 68% of data points between -1SD and 1SD, 95% between -2SD and 2SD etc. If I were to look at Jana's data point, for instance, her getting married would be way off the curve because it was such an unusual data point.

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Jana & Stephen Wissmann

Pre-Court/Courtship: Early 2024 Engagement: June 2024 Marriage: August 2024

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: ~227 days. (Plus their previous relationship!)

So What's Next? Wissmann 1 is predicted to be born in August 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Marriage - Pregnancy Announcement Ranking

@fundiepredictions said about a recent post 'Impressed by Jackson&Emerson for making it (almost) to their weddinganniversary without announcing a pregnancy' and you know what, so am I.

That got me thinking, how quickly do couples announce their first pregnancy? How many made it to their first anniversary without announcing? So, from quickest to slowest, here are the Duggar and Bates first pregnancy announcement rates.

Jill & Derick Dillard - 60 days Zach & Whitney Bates - 79 days Joy & Austin Forsyth - 96 days Joe & Kendra Duggar - 101 days Carlin & Evan Stewart - 102 days Josie & Kelton Balka - 131 days Tori & Bobby Smith - 145 days Trace & Lydia Bates - 155 days Jed & Kate Duggar - 155 days Jer & Hannah Duggar - 157 days Jessa & Ben Seewald - 171 days Alyssa & John Webster - 178 days Nathan & Esther Bates - 198 days J*** & Anna Duggar - 199 days Katie & Travis Clark - 247 days John & Abbie Duggar - 271 days Josiah & Lauren Duggar - 324 days (after miscarriage) Jinger & Jeremy Vuolo - 424 days Erin & Chad Paine - 447 days (after fertility struggles) Lawson & Tiffany Bates - 663 days (after miscarriage)

Jackson and Emerson are currently on Day 358 of marriage. Justin and Claire are on Day 1318 of marriage.

This means we are now on five Duggar/Bates couples who have made it to their first anniversary without a pregnancy announcement - and seventeen who have not.

[thefundiedata]

(Delayed) Upcoming Events October 2024 - March 2025

Not predicting for: Michaela Bates, Alyssa Bates, Jinger Duggar, Joseph Duggar and Josiah Duggar.

Just Occurred: Timothy Rodrigues and Heidi Coverett got married on 14th September. Katie and Travis Clark had their son, Harvey Gray Clark, on 29th September. Jason Duggar and Maddie Jones got married on 3rd October.

Confirmed Events: Nathan and Esther Bates are expecting their second child, a son, predicted birthday of 6th October. Jed and Kate Duggar are expecting twin girls. The girls will be their third and fourth children. Predicted birthday of 30th December.

Predicted Events: October: 21st - James Duggar enters a courtship. 30th - Carlin and Evan Stewart announce Baby 3 (1SD late).

November: No events predicted.

December: 11th - Jackson and Emerson Bates announce Baby 1 (2SDs late). 13th - Kaylee and Jonathan Hill announce Baby 2 (2SDs late). 20th - Jill and Derick Dillard announce Baby 4*.

January: 17th - Samuel Rodrigues and Brianne Hessert get engaged. 27th - Timothy and Heidi Rodrigues announce Baby 1.

February: 15th - Jana and Stephen Wissmann announce Baby 1.

March: 9th - Trace and Lydia Bates announce Baby 2* (1SD late).