thefundiedata

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A random assortment of fundie Easter photos

Sorry, I meant Resurrection Sunday, of course.

Gideon Hill, you are the cutest, sorry about your grandmother.

Playing a game of 'who went to the same church'?

Varying levels of aesthetic family pictures.

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What are these outfits?

Sorry Jill, you cannot believe Jesus rose for you to wear something so hideous and force the youngest girls into it too, right?!

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An (Updated) Complete Bates Family Overview

Zach & Whitney Bates

Years Married: 11 Children: 5 - Bradley (10), Kaci (8), Khloe (5), Jadon (3) & Lily (1) Predicted Family Size: 8 children (2026, 2028, 2031)

Brandon & Michael Keilen

Years Married: 9 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 0 children

Chad & Erin Paine

Years Married: 11 Children: 6 - Charles (9), Brooklyn (8), Everly (7), Holland (5), Finley (3) & William (1) Predicted Family Size: 11 children (2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035)

Lawson & Tiffany Bates

Years Married: 2 Children: 1 - William (0) Predicted Family Size: 4 children (2027, 2031, 2036)

Nathan & Esther Bates

Years Married: 3 Children: 2 - Kenna (2) & Graham (0) Predicted Family Size: 7 children (2027, 2030, 2033, 3036, 2040)

John & Alyssa Webster

Years Married: 10 Children: 5 - Allie (10), Lexi (8), Zoey (7), Maci (4) & Rhett (2) Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2025, 2028, 2031, 2034, 2037)

Bobby & Tori Smith

Years Married: 7 Children: 5 - Kade (6), Kolter (5), Charlotte (3), Cambree (2) & Slade (0) Predicted Family Size: 13 children (2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036, 2038, 2041)

Trace & Lydia Bates

Years Married: 2 Children: 1 - Ryker (1) & 1 on the way Predicted Family Size: 9 children (2026, 2028, 2029, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036)

Evan & Carlin Stewart

Years Married: 5 Children: 2 - Layla (5), Zade (3) & 1 on the way Predicted Family Size: 7 children (2029, 2033, 2036, 2041)

Kelton & Josie Balka

Years Married: 6 Children: 3 - Willow (5), Hazel (3) & Miles (1) Predicted Family Size: 9 children (2026, 2029, 2033, 2036, 2040, 2044)

Travis & Katie Clark

Years Married: 3 Children: 2 - Hailey (2) & Harvey (0) Predicted Family Size: 9 children (2026, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2037, 2039, 2043)

Jack & Emy Bates

Years Married: 1 Children: 1 on the way Predicted Family Size: 5 children (2028, 2032, 2036, 2040)

Warden & Isaiah Bates

Warden (single) & Isaiah (in a relationship) Predicted Family Size: 8 children (Warden) & 7 children (Isaiah)

Addallee, Ellie & Callie-Anna Bates

Predicted Family Size: 8 children each

Judson & Jeb Bates

Predicted Family Size: 7 children each

Total Predicted GrandBates: 145

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Updated Family Overview | Josiah & Lauren Duggar

Pre-Court: August 2017 Courtship: October 2017 Engagement: February 2018 Marriage: June 2018

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 388 days

Their Family: Bella Milagro Duggar - 8th November 2019 Daisy Duggar - ~March 2022 Ezra Duggar - ~May 2023 Baby Duggar - ~February 2025

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For the unannounced pregs predicted 2025 that the couples are present on social media, are you guessing they'll just announce later? Bc Jana, whom you've predicted 2025, just recently said not pregnant but would want a baby.

A full term 2025 delivery has a cutoff of getting pregnant in March for December full-term delivery. As we are in Mid-April, have your predictions changed in any way?

The data has changed since then as I've added the Wissmann data I already had to the firstborn data set, which has changed the average and Standard Deviation slightly. Jana is now predicted to have her first in January. (I will also be adding the Bontrager and probably the Arndt data in, which will change this again.)

However, no, I don't change the data based off fundies saying they're not pregnant as that's happened in the past and they've announced a few weeks later anyway. The couple become 'late' for an announcement when they pass the date the spreadsheet predicted for an announcement. In Jana's case that was, I believe, the beginning of June when her predicted date was still December 2025. If she passed that, I'd have then moved her to the next date based off the Standard Deviation for that dataset (141 days for first pregnancy), which is what I just did with Jason and Maddie who are 'late' for an announcement now.

ETA: The predicted date of announcement for an end of December birth is early July anyway, which we're still some time away from

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Oh yeah because the Philippines (which is check notes: 85% Christian) definitely needs people to come and tell them about Jesus.

Like I know these people don't think Catholics count but for goodness sake, isn't there something better they can spend their money on?

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I don't want to speculate but sadly I think Justin and Claire have fertility problems. Fundies don't wait more than a year for having babies. Justin have a job, they are happy together and they are in love, they don't need to wait so long.

Sure, it's a possibility but it is just speculation, and speculation based on a lot of assumptions for people who don't share their life on social media at all. Unless the couple confirm something, the spreadsheet will just keep plodding along. I'll probably stop putting them in the upcoming events posts when they hit four years 'late' anyway, just to make it simpler.

Also - fundies who waited much more than a year to have a baby because I think now is a useful time to remember that they do exist for a variety of reasons and most have had several children:

Andrew and Kori Wissmann - 2669 days to the birth of Wyatt Rachel and Alan (Wissmann) Busenitz - 1305 days to the birth of Kendrick Jeremy and Audrey Roloff - 1086 days to the birth of Ember Karissa and Andrae Collins - 933 days to the birth of Anissa John and Campbell Wissmann - 891 days to the birth of Buchanan Bethany and Dan Wissmann - 859 days to the birth of Arianna Lawson and Tiffany Bates - would have had a spacing of about 738 days if they hadn't suffered a miscarriage Jackson and Emerson Bates - about 617 days for this first pregnancy

Justin and Claire might not have any children any time soon but I'm not speculating on a couple who have gone out of their way to avoid public scrutiny.

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An (updated) Complete Duggar Family Overview

J*** and Anna Duggar

Years Married: Too Many (16) Children: 7 - Mackynzie (15), Michael (13), Marcus (11), Meredith (9), Mason (7), Maryella (5), Madyson (3) Predicted Family Size: 7 children

John and Abbie Duggar

Years Married: 6 Children: 2 - Grace (5) & Charlie (2) Predicted Family Size: 4 children (2026, 2029)

Jana and Stephen Wissmann

Years Married: 0 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 3 children (2026, 2028, 2031)

Jill and Derick Dillard

Years Married: 10 Children: 3 - Israel (10), Samuel (7) & Frederick (2) Predicted Family Size: 6 children (2025, 2029, 2033)

Jessa and Ben Seewald

Years Married: 10 Children: 5 - Spurgeon (9), Henry (8), Ivy (5), Fern (3), George (1) + 1 on the way Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2027, 2029, 2032, 2034)

Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo

Years Married: 8 Children: 3 - Felicity (6), Evangeline (4), Finnegan (0) Predicted Family Size: 5 children (2028, 2032)

Joseph and Kendra Duggar

Years Married: 7 Children: 4 - Garrett (6), Addison (5), Brooklyn (4) & Justus (2) Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2025, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2036, 2038)

Josiah and Lauren Duggar

Years Married: 6 Children: 4 - Bella (5), Daisy (3), Ezra (1) & Baby Duggar (0) Predicted Family Size: 11 children (2027, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2036, 2038, 2041)

Joy and Austin Forsyth

Years Married: 7 Children: 3 - Gideon (7), Evelyn (4) & Gunner (1) Predicted Family Size: 8 children (2026, 2029, 2032, 2036, 2039)

Jedidiah and Katey Duggar

Years Married: 4 Children: 4 - Truett (2), Nora (1), Elsie (0) & Emma (0) Predicted Family Size: 10 children (2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036)

Jeremiah and Hannah Duggar

Years Married: 3 Children: 2 - Brynley (2), Brielle (1) + 1 on the way Predicted Family Size: 11 children (2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036, 2038, 2042)

Jason and Maddie Duggar

Years Married: 0 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 7 children (2026, 2027, 2029, 2032, 2035, 2038, 2041)

James Duggar

Unmarried (Predicted 2029) Predicted Family Size: 5 children (2030, 2032, 2034, 2037, 2040)

Justin and Claire Duggar

Years Married: 4 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 2 children (2026, 2034)

Jackson Duggar

Unmarried (Predicted 2028) Predicted Family Size: 6 children (2029, 2031, 2033, 2036, 2039, 2042)

Johannah, Jennifer, Jordyn & Josie Duggar

Unmarried Predicted Family Size: 7 children each

Total Predicted GrandDuggars: 133

[thefundiedata]

Who's Having Mystery GrandBates #36?

So... Lawson Bates is at it again. Last time, it was over who was having Mystery GrandBates #33 (answer: nobody, as far as we can tell, that baby did not exist) and now it's over who is having Mystery GrandBates #36 (who may exist? let's hope Lawson is more accurate this time).

So who could it be?

It Can't Be: If a Bates has worked out they are pregnant, the absolute latest they could be giving birth, based on being around 4 weeks pregnant at minimum, is December 2025. That means there aren't actually that many people it can't be.

It can't be Lydia, Emerson or Carlin as they are already known to be pregnant.

Aside from that, it could realistically be any of the married Bates couples. However, some seem more likely than others.

Who Does the Data Think It Is? The data would suggest that the following couples would be most likely to have a baby by December 2025:

Alyssa Webster: Alyssa's last baby, Rhett, was born in March 2023. The spreadsheet predicted a sixth baby in October 2025. However, Alyssa has had severe morning sickness during her previous pregnancies and suggested her pregnancy with Rhett would be her last. While that in no way confirms that she won't get pregnant again (she also suggested her pregnancy with Maci would be her last before Rhett came along), it does mean looking at other alternatives is also sensible.

Erin Paine: Erin's last baby, William, was born in October 2023. The spreadsheet predicted a seventh baby in January 2026. This would be her longest spacing, though. A pregnancy in December would mean a predicted announcement in June, so a birth late this year is feasible for Erin.

Tori Smith: Tori's last baby, Weston "Slade", was born in May 2024. The spreadsheet predicted a sixth baby in March 2026. A December baby would mean a spacing of around 564 days, which is well within her average. However, with her last pregnancy, Kelly Jo immediately announced it when Tori was just a few weeks pregnant. It does seem strange Tori's pregnancy would be leaked this way rather than with an official Bates' Instagram post.

Some Less Likely Options: Whitney Bates' last baby, Lily, was born in August 2023. Whitney's pace is slower than her sister-in-laws' and she doesn't seem in a rush to have another baby. Spreadsheet prediction is for April 2026.

Tiffany Bates' last baby, William, was born in July 2024. A baby in December 2025 would mean a spacing of 513 days, which is plausible, but much faster than her previous pace. The spreadsheet prediction is for May 2027, though I personally think she'll have a second much sooner than this.

I don't think it's as likely to be Josie (last baby, Miles, born February 2024), Katie (last baby, Harvey, born September 2024) or Esther (last baby, Graham, born October 2024), the other married Bates women.

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Updated Family Overview | Jinger & Jeremy Vuolo

Pre-Court: December 2015 Courtship: May 2016 Engagement: July 2016 Marriage: November 2016

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 330 days

Their Family: Felicity Nicole Vuolo - 19th July 2018 Evangeline Jo Vuolo - 22nd November 2020 Finnegan Charles Vuolo - 29th March 2025

So What's Next? If Jinger and Jeremy have a fourth, they are predicted to announce in May 2028 for a birth that November.

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Meet Finnegan Charles Vuolo

On 30th March 2025, Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announced the birth of their third child, Finnegan Charles Vuolo. His middle name was chosen after his paternal grandfather. Finn has two older sisters, Felicity (6) and Evangeline "Evy Jo" (4). He had been born the previous day, which was two days after his due date.

Pregnancy Announcement

The couple announced their pregnancy with Finnegan on 15th October 2024. Jinger was 117 days along at the time (16 weeks, 5 days). They announced they were expecting a boy on 13th January 2025 when Jinger was 207 days along (29 weeks, 4 days).

Effect on the Data

Finnegan was born when Jinger was 31 years old so his birth has had an impact on the 30-35 year old data set. As the gap between Evy and Finn was so big, it has increased the average by a fair amount compared to other single pregnancies. I have also looked at introducing a third child multiplier, to compare how long a couple's third spacing is compared to their second. In Jinger and Jeremy's case, their Evy-Finn spacing was 2.26x longer than their second spacing, which was between Felicity and a loss they experienced in 2019. This brings the average third child multiplier to 1.41x slower than second child spacing (up from 1.35x slower without their data).

What's Next?

Jinger and Jeremy have previously hinted at not wanting many more children, with Jinger suggesting she was happy with three or four kids. So, we'll have to see if Baby 4 does happen. If the couple do decide to expand the family further, they are predicted to announce in May 2028 for a birth that November.

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Upcoming Events | April-September 2025

Not predicting for: Michaela Bates, Alyssa Bates and Joseph Duggar.

Just Occurred: Jessa and Ben Seewald announced they were pregnant with their sixth child on 7th March. Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo had their son Finnegan Charles on 29th March.

Confirmed Events: Josiah and Lauren Duggar are expecting their fourth child. Estimated birthday of 17th April. Jeremiah and Hannah Duggar are expecting their third child, a girl. Predicted birthday of 9th May. Trace and Lydia Bates are expecting their second child*, a girl. Predicted birthday of 31st May. Jack and Emy Bates are expecting their first child. Due date of 22nd June. Timothy and Heidi Rodrigues are expecting their first child. Due date of 12th July. Carlin and Evan Stewart are expecting their third child. Predicted birthday of 4th September.

Predicted Events:

April: 6th - Isaiah Bates and Sarah enter a courtship. 11th - Kaylee and Jonathan Hill announce Baby 2 (3 SDs late). 21st - Jason and Maddie Duggar announce Baby 1.

May: 5th - Carlin and Evan Stewart announce the gender of Baby 3. 14th - Jill and Derick announce Baby 4* (1 SD late). 22nd - Justin and Claire Duggar announce Baby 1 (11 SDs late).

June: No events predicted

July: 5th - Renee Rodrigues enters a courtship (1 SD late). 9th - Jana and Stephen Wissmann announce Baby 1 (1 SD late). 17th - Joy and Austin Forsyth announce Baby 4. 29th - Nurie and Nathan Keller announce Baby 4.

August: 26th - Erin and Chad Paine announce Baby 7.

September: No events predicted

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I wasn’t expecting a surname as a first name from them. Felicity and Evangeline have a totally different vibe to me.

Jinger had the baby, Finnegan Charles

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Jinger had the baby, Finnegan Charles

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Baby Seewald 6 is on the way!

On Friday 7th March, Jessa Seewald posted a surprising Instagram announcement - not only was she pregnant, but she was 'halfway to holding [the baby] in [her] arms'. So I suppose we've found the missing GrandDuggar 39 from Joy's podcast interview! Jessa and Ben Seewald are already parents to Spurgeon Elliot (9), Henry Wilberforce (8), Ivy Jane (5), Fern Elliana (3) and George Augustine (1).

Early, Late, or On Time? This pregnancy announcement was definitely early. After the birth of George in December 2023, Jessa's predicted pace was 929 days, which would have meant a birth in July 2026. 929 days would have been quite a long spacing for Jessa, who was relatively consistent in most of her pregnancies, but was due to the maternal multiplier also coming into effect. To date, Jessa's shortest spacing has been with Henry, who was born only 459 days after big brother Spurgeon, but this is very much an outlier for the Seewalds. Taking into account prior miscarriages Jessa has had and ignoring the Henry spacing, Jessa's average was 777 days (which would have meant a birth in February 2026). If we do include her data with Henry, her prior average was 697 days (which would have meant a birth in November 2025) so this pregnancy is still early, even then.

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement Jessa's announcements have been getting later over time, though this pregnancy wasn't announced as late as George's was. Her average was to announce on Day 131. Taking Jessa's statement to mean she was literally halfway through the pregnancy on 7th March, and therefore announced on Day 140, her average announcement time stays the same at Day 131 (18 weeks, 5 days).

Due Date If 7th March was the absolute midpoint of the pregnancy, Jessa would be due 25th July 2025. On average, she gives birth one day early. That gives a predicted date of birth of 24th July 2025 for Baby 6. A birthday on 24th July would mean a spacing of 583 days between George and the new baby.

Impact on the Data This pregnancy drastically speeds up Jessa's pace. She's now predicted to have a total of 10 children, up one from her previous prediction. This pregnancy also affects the maternal multiplier, though the effect was fairly small. It is a quicker pregnancy in the 30-35 age bracket though, with the average pace in this age bracket now standing at 709 days, and therefore reduces the predicted pace for other women in this bracket.

Jessa's new predicted pace for Baby 7 is 783 days. They are not expected to announce the gender or the name of this baby or any upcoming ones, based on precedent from previous pregnancies. With all prior babies, they have done this after birth.

Baby Seven? With a pace of 783 days, Jessa is predicted to announce her next pregnancy in April 2027 for a birth in September 2027.

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Is Ezra duggar born on May 3 2023 ??

The public doesn’t have a date of birth for Ezra Duggar.

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Of course this happens when I went away for the weekend and decided not to bring my laptop. Data soon(ish).

Breaking News: Jessa is pregnant

Well in less than 20 weeks Jessa Seewald and her husband Ben along with Spurgeon Elliott, Henry Wilberforce, Ivy Jane, Fern Ellianna and George Augustine will add the newest blessing to their family.