thefundiedata

[thefundiedata]

Upcoming Events | November 2024 - April 2025

Not predicting for: Michaela Bates, Alyssa Bates and Joseph Duggar.

Just Occurred: Nathan and Esther Bates had their son, Graham Alan Bates, on 6th October. Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announced their third pregnancy on 15th October.

Confirmed Events: Jed and Kate Duggar are expecting twin girls. The girls will be their third and fourth children. Predicted birthday of 30th December.

Tentative Events: Josiah and Lauren Duggar may be expecting their fourth child. The spreadsheet was predicting a birth in February 2025, which matches with these suspicions.

Predicted Events: November: 27th - Kaylee and Jonathan Hill announce Baby 2 (2 SDs late).

December: 4th - Justin and Claire Duggar announce Baby 1 (10 SDs late). 20th - Jackson and Emerson Bates announce Baby 1 (2 SDs late) & Jill and Derick Dillard announce Baby 4*.

January: 17th - Samuel Rodrigues and Brianne Hessert get engaged.

February: 28th - Jana and Stephen Wissmann announce Baby 1.

March: 9th - Trace and Lydia Bates announce Baby 2* (1 SD late). 30th - Timothy and Heidi Rodrigues announce Baby 1.

April: 6th - Isaiah Bates and Sarah enter a courtship. 9th - Jason and Maddie Duggar announce Baby 1.

[thefundiedata]

Predicted Pregnancy Announcements by Year

2024 27th November - Kaylee Hill 4th December - Claire Duggar 20th December - Emerson Bates & Jill Dillard

2025 28th February - Jana Wissmann 9th March - Lydia Bates 30th March - Heidi Rodrigues 9th April - Maddie Duggar 15th April - Alyssa Webster 3rd May - Carlin Stewart 9th May - Hannah Duggar 19th June - Erin Paine 26th June - Whitney Bates 29th June - Joy Forsyth 4th July - Tori Smith 15th July - Nurie Keller 19th September - Abbie Duggar 19th December - Jessa Seewald

2026 13th January - Kate Duggar 4th March - Katie Clark 29th March - Josie Balka 6th August - Esther Bates 13th August - Tiffany Bates

Tentative Joe & Kendra are late for Baby 5. New predicted date of birth is 6th February 2025. Josiah & Lauren are predicted to have Baby 4 on 4th February 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Fundie Social Media October 2024

Lawson & Tiffany Bates, John & Abbie Duggar, James Duggar, Jill & Derick Dillard, Carlin & Evan Stewart, Nurie & Nathan Keller, Katie & Travis Clark, Josie & Kelton Balka, Joy & Austin Forsyth, Nathan & Esther Bates.

[thefundiedata]

Baby Vuolo 3 is on the way!

On Tuesday 15th October 2024, Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo shared they are expecting their third child through a YouTube video and a People Magazine article. The couple are already parents to Felicity and Evangeline.

Early, Late or On Time?

This pregnancy was very much late. Based on the miscarriage Jinger had between Felicity and Evangeline, her predicted pace for Baby 3 was 830 days. This would have meant a birth on 1st March 2023, which obviously didn't happen. This birth is predicted to be 746 days late, which is 3.73 SDs late.

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement

Jinger's previous pregnancies had been announced on Day 82 and Day 105. This gave her an average of announcing on Day 94 (13 weeks, 3 days). With this pregnancy, Jinger announced later, on Day 117 (16 weeks, 5 days). Her new average to announce is on Day 101 (14 weeks, 3 days).

Due Date

In her YouTube video, Jinger shares her estimated due date at the time was 27th March 2025. Without any further updates, I will use this to predict Baby 3's birth. In her previous deliveries, Jinger averaged giving birth 1 day after her due date. Therefore, this baby's predicted date of birth is 28th March 2025.

Impact on the Data

This has impacted the Maternal Multiplier a bit (with a higher average spacing in the 30-35 age bracket and a higher Standard Deviation in the same bracket). Hers is the second highest spacing in this age bracket after her sister, Jill's, miscarriage before Freddy's birth. It also impacts on Jinger and Jeremy's predicted pace for future pregnancies.

Baby Four?

If Jinger announces a fourth baby, which is very much not guaranteed given her comments in People magazine, ('So three or four. I don't know. But I think three is what I'm leaning towards right now'), she is predicted to do so in May 2028.

Pregnancy Announcement: 22nd May 2028 Date of Birth: 17th November 2028

Should they decide to keep going after a fourth baby, they are predicted to have a maximum of five children.

[thefundiedata]

Jinger just announced a pregnancy, gender reveal via blood test incoming. Data?

Will write and queue now but may hold off for if gender reveal comes before I publish and put that info in there.

I'm thinking if it's a boy, it might be their last, we'll see I guess.

[thefundiedata]

Data soon - guess that answers the question of when I would eventually have to say how late Jinger’s pregnancy was!

Breaking News: Baby Vuolo!

Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announced to people magazine that they are expecting their 3rd child due to arrive March of 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Updated Family Overview | Nathan & Esther Bates

Pre-Court: Late 2019 Courtship: October 2020 Engagement: May 2021 Marriage: October 2021

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: ~661 days.

Their Family: Kenna Joy Bates - October 2022 Graham Alan Bates - October 2024

So What's Next? Bates 3 is predicted to be announced in August 2026 for a birth in January 2027.

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Jason & Maddie Duggar

Pre Court: December 2023 Courtship: ~May 2024 Engagement: August 2024 Marriage: October 2024

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: ~292 days.

So What's Next? Duggar 1 is predicted to be born in October 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Meet Graham Alan Bates

On Sunday 6th October 2024, Nathan and Esther Bates announced the birth of their second child, Graham Alan Bates, on Instagram. Graham was born on 4th October and joins a big sister, Kenna Joy Bates. Graham was born three days early, which is slightly earlier than Kenna, who was born one day early.

Pregnancy Announcement Esther and Nathan Bates announced the pregnancy on 21st March 2024. Esther was on Day 80 of pregnancy at the time. This was much earlier than with Kenna (Day 117). Their new average is Day 99.

Gender Reveal The couple revealed Graham's gender on 1st June 2024. This was on Day 152 of pregnancy. This was slightly earlier than Kenna (Day 160) and their new average is Day 156.

They didn't announce his name until birth.

Effect on the Data As Graham's cousin, Harvey Clark, was due at the same time, I calculated the second child multiplier with both of their estimated due dates and finalised the data after they were both born. This means this data has been used for several months. If I hadn't done this, however, it would stand at 1.72 after Harvey's birth and at 1.74 after Graham's birth, which is a slight increase.

Graham was born 718 days after his sister. This will impact on Nathan and Esther's pace going forward. This data point multiplied by the maternal multiplier (which Graham's birth has also had a teeny impact on), gives them a predicted pace of 848 days.

What's Next? With all that being said, Nathan and Esther are predicted to have a third baby in just under 2 years, 4 months time.

Pregnancy Announcement: 3rd August 2026 Gender Reveal: 29th September 2026 Birth Date: 29th January 2027 Due Date: 31st January 2027

[thefundiedata]

This pertains to the posts, but what is SD? 1 SD late, 1 SD early...

It stands for 'Standard Deviation', which is a statistics term. Simply, it shows how spread out the data is from the mean. A smaller Standard Deviation means there's less variation from the mean and all the data is more consistent.

For instance, the Standard Deviation for post-loss spacings is 156 days, which means 68% of data points fall between 270 days and 582 days. The second child spacing standard deviation is 161 days, which is slightly greater. That means there's slightly more variance in that data set.

Hopefully the image above shows where data should fall on a typical standard deviation curve. 68% of data points between -1SD and 1SD, 95% between -2SD and 2SD etc. If I were to look at Jana's data point, for instance, her getting married would be way off the curve because it was such an unusual data point.

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Jana & Stephen Wissmann

Pre-Court/Courtship: Early 2024 Engagement: June 2024 Marriage: August 2024

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: ~227 days. (Plus their previous relationship!)

So What's Next? Wissmann 1 is predicted to be born in August 2025.

[thefundiedata]

Marriage - Pregnancy Announcement Ranking

@fundiepredictions said about a recent post 'Impressed by Jackson&Emerson for making it (almost) to their weddinganniversary without announcing a pregnancy' and you know what, so am I.

That got me thinking, how quickly do couples announce their first pregnancy? How many made it to their first anniversary without announcing? So, from quickest to slowest, here are the Duggar and Bates first pregnancy announcement rates.

Jill & Derick Dillard - 60 days Zach & Whitney Bates - 79 days Joy & Austin Forsyth - 96 days Joe & Kendra Duggar - 101 days Carlin & Evan Stewart - 102 days Josie & Kelton Balka - 131 days Tori & Bobby Smith - 145 days Trace & Lydia Bates - 155 days Jed & Kate Duggar - 155 days Jer & Hannah Duggar - 157 days Jessa & Ben Seewald - 171 days Alyssa & John Webster - 178 days Nathan & Esther Bates - 198 days J*** & Anna Duggar - 199 days Katie & Travis Clark - 247 days John & Abbie Duggar - 271 days Josiah & Lauren Duggar - 324 days (after miscarriage) Jinger & Jeremy Vuolo - 424 days Erin & Chad Paine - 447 days (after fertility struggles) Lawson & Tiffany Bates - 663 days (after miscarriage)

Jackson and Emerson are currently on Day 358 of marriage. Justin and Claire are on Day 1318 of marriage.

This means we are now on five Duggar/Bates couples who have made it to their first anniversary without a pregnancy announcement - and seventeen who have not.

[thefundiedata]

(Delayed) Upcoming Events October 2024 - March 2025

Not predicting for: Michaela Bates, Alyssa Bates, Jinger Duggar, Joseph Duggar and Josiah Duggar.

Just Occurred: Timothy Rodrigues and Heidi Coverett got married on 14th September. Katie and Travis Clark had their son, Harvey Gray Clark, on 29th September. Jason Duggar and Maddie Jones got married on 3rd October.

Confirmed Events: Nathan and Esther Bates are expecting their second child, a son, predicted birthday of 6th October. Jed and Kate Duggar are expecting twin girls. The girls will be their third and fourth children. Predicted birthday of 30th December.

Predicted Events: October: 21st - James Duggar enters a courtship. 30th - Carlin and Evan Stewart announce Baby 3 (1SD late).

November: No events predicted.

December: 11th - Jackson and Emerson Bates announce Baby 1 (2SDs late). 13th - Kaylee and Jonathan Hill announce Baby 2 (2SDs late). 20th - Jill and Derick Dillard announce Baby 4*.

January: 17th - Samuel Rodrigues and Brianne Hessert get engaged. 27th - Timothy and Heidi Rodrigues announce Baby 1.

February: 15th - Jana and Stephen Wissmann announce Baby 1.

March: 9th - Trace and Lydia Bates announce Baby 2* (1SD late).

[thefundiedata]

Jason Duggar and Maddie Jones are married!

On Thursday 3rd October 2024, Jason Duggar and Madison Jones got married in Tennessee. They first announced their relationship in May 2024.

The couple got engaged on 24th August 2024, meaning their engagement was only 40 days long! The previous average was an already-quick 91 days. The new average is 87 days with a typical range of 62-112 days. This means that the non-typical engagement lengths are Jed & Kate (48 days), Justin & Claire (113 days), Jana & Stephen (61 days) and our newest couple Jason & Maddie (40 days).

In the People article that accompanied their wedding pictures, Jason and Maddie shared that they met through Instagram in December 2023. This gives an approximate pre-marriage relationship length of 292 days - the second shortest after John & Abbie.

Maddie was aged 20.98 on her wedding day while Jason was aged 24.45. They have an age difference of 1,267 days with Jason being older. The average of all spreadsheet couples stands at the man being older by 350 days, though Maddie and Jason's age difference is within one standard deviation of the mean.

Prior to their wedding, the average age of a Duggar bride was 23.05 and the average age of a Duggar groom was 23.84. The Standard Deviation for both brides and grooms has now slightly reduced. The average age of marriage for Duggar women is now between 18.56 and 27.22 with a mean of 22.89 while the average age for men is now between 20.04 and 27.73 with a mean of 23.89.

The average fundie couple has a baby 371 days after the wedding and announces the pregnancy on Day 93. If Jason and Maddie are totally fundie-typical, that would mean an announcement on 9th April 2025 and a birth on 9th October 2025. Their predicted family size is eight children.

As always, I wish the couple all the best. As an educator, I hope Maddie does finish her degree and uses it for good in the world!

[thefundiedata]

Updated Family Overview | Katie & Travis Clark

Pre-Court: June 2019 Courtship: March 2020 Engagement: April 2021 Marriage: December 2021

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 890 days.

Their Family: Hailey James Clark - February 2023 Harvey Gray Clark - September 2024

So What's Next? Katie and Travis are predicted to announce Clark 3 in February 2026 for a birth in August 2026.

[thefundiedata]

Meet Harvey Gray Clark

On Monday 30th September 2024, Katie Clark shared on her Instagram page that her son, Harvey Gray, had been born the previous day. He had low oxygen levels so was transferred to a bigger hospital for treatment. Harvey was born 19 days early (37 weeks, 2 days), this is earlier than big sister, Hailey, who was born 15 days early.

Pregnancy Announcement Katie and Travis announced the pregnancy on 13th April 2024. With a due date of 18th October, they announced on Day 92 of pregnancy (13 weeks, 1 day). This was a later announcement than with Hailey, their first child. Their new average to announce is on Day 82 (11 weeks, 5 days).

Gender Reveal The Clark family announced Harvey's gender on 9th May 2024. This occurred on Day 118 of pregnancy (16 weeks, 6 days). This means their new average to reveal the gender is on Day 111 (15 weeks, 6 days).

Name Reveal Harvey Gray's name was revealed on 27th June. This was on Day 167 of pregnancy (23 weeks, 6 days). The new average to reveal a Clark baby's name is Day 143 of pregnancy (20 weeks, 3 days).

Effect on the Data As a second baby, Harvey affects the data in a few ways. Firstly, he affects the maternal multiplier. As Katie was under 25 at the time of the birth, Harvey's data has been added to the <25 data set. His birth has had a small impact on all the maternal multiplier rates.

His birth has also affected the second child multiplier. Harvey was born 590 days after his sister, Hailey. (Hailey was born 441 days after marriage) This means Katie's second child multiplier rate is 1.34. Prior to Harvey's birth, the second child multiplier was 1.76. It is now 1.74, a small reduction.

So What's Next? Taking the maternal multiplier into account, Katie's predictive pace is 696 days. Therefore, the spreadsheet is predicting the following dates for key reveals:

Pregnancy Announcement: 25th February 2026 Gender Reveal: 27th March 2026 Name Reveal: 27th April 2026 Birth Date: 26th August 2026 Due Date: 12th September 2026

[thefundiedata]

Do we really think the bates girls (outside of Erin and Tori) will have that many kids? Obviously we don’t know yet how “bought in” the younger girls are/how fundie they’ll marry, but Carlin and Josie seem so into their businesses and influencing that I just can’t imagine they want 6 more children, especially if they’d have to give up the jobs they like in order to homeschool. I guess we’ll see, since they could be come worldly in the next decade and think Christian school is fine.

I personally don't think they will. The spreadsheet is just set up for how many children they'll have at their current rate without stopping. I think it's likely most will stop or slow down.

I am surprised that no Bates daughter has even considered a schooling option other than homeschooling. I thought at least one would have decided the pros of sending to Christian school outweighed the cons, but seemingly not.