#yet another chappell edit

[flowrfeast]

Breaking News!

Chappell Roan —> Naked In Manhattan

[murdockbarnes]

you'll have to stop the world just to stop the feeling

pairing: eloise bridgerton x fem!reader

summary: eloise bridgerton has successfully chased away a flurry of lady's maids. has she finally met her match?

wordcount: almost 3k

warnings: fluff, angst, no happy ending. 18+ minors do not interact. nothing explicit, but still.

A/N: eloise is aged up in this, around 24. partly inspired by this gorgeous artwork and good luck babe by chappell roan.

i try not use y/n in my fics but i started writing this over two years ago and a good chunk of it was already written using y/n, so i am just too lazy to change it now. sorry it that bothers anyone! any feedback would be greatly appreciated. have a great day!

*not edited, all mistakes are mine*

viscount bridgerton was worried. a slew of lady's maids and none were strong willed enough to deal with his storm of a younger sister, eloise. of course, he loved her passion dearly, just not so much when it felt like he had to look for a new lady's maid every other week. the last lady's maid lasted two days. anthony just hoped the new one would last a little longer.

eloise was proud of herself - she had just broken her personal record: two days. in the years since she had made her debut, she had driven away at least 20 lady's maids each year. it wasn't that she enjoyed tormenting them, it was just that she hated society's expectations of her and her sex. she hated the lady's maids on principal, it was nothing personal, even though they did make her life easier. she had thought that anthony would finally give up, so imagine her surprise when she went down to the drawing room only to find her mother sitting with whom she guessed was to be her new lady's maid.

"you must be joking" eloise scoffed.

"eloise-" violet began.

"quite the contrary, ma'am," you began as eloise's eyes once again slid over to yours. "i am to be your new lady's maid. my name is y/n y/l/n."

"don't bother getting too comfortable, miss y/l/n" eloise flashed you a sugary sweet smile before turning on her heel and departing.

the next few weeks saw you exhausted, as eloise did everything in her power to vex you enough to make you quit. but you were determined. each night, after whatever ordeal she had put you through for the day, whether it be going shopping and swiftly disappearing into the crowd, sending you up and down multiple flights of stairs to look for something she had with her all along, or whatever torture she thought of that day, you would smile brightly at her before departing for the night.

that night, right before you closed the doors to her room, you saw her crack, saw her frown. eloise was understandably confused. you should have given up by now, you should have broken and quit. yet, here you were two months into this arrangement. the longest yet. to be really quite honest, eloise was running out of ideas to scare you off.

another ball passed with more judgement from the mamas of the ton. eloise could feel their eyes burning into her back like the power of a thousand suns. she was just exhausted of this constant routine and wished she could escape. and she wanted this blasted dress off her.

you started unlacing the back of the dress, your fingers accidentally brushing her soft skin, goosebumps appearing in their wake. as you brush her hair and see eloise's reflection in the mirror, a prominent frown between her brows, you realise this ball must have taken more of a toll on her for her to be so docile with you. you blow out all candles save one, and even when you exit, eloise is deep in thought in front of the mirror.

hyacinth was debuting this season, and violet swears the effort to find both hyacinth and eloise husbands is taking years off her life. she loves how fierce and passionate her daughters are, but she wished it was easier to find them husbands, as at the end of the day she wants to see them happy with their own little family.

eloise is forced out to promenade with hyacinth, and as always, her lady's maid is to be her shadow. eloise is perturbed to see her so unbothered by her antics. when she crosses the street boldly in front of an oncoming carriage, so does she. when she takes a detour and leaves hyacinth and her own lady's maid behind, she follows. as she looks over her shoulder to see her walking a few paces behind, her foot hits the stump of a tree and she goes tumbling down.

the pain radiates up eloise's leg, and she feels hands on her in seconds. the next moments are a blur and eloise does not remember how she finds herself in her bed, a physician standing at the end of her bed claiming a broken foot, and her mother and youngest sister fretting over her.

"i'm afraid the foot is broken, lady bridgerton," the physician finishes his examination and wraps her foot in a bandage.

"how long will it take to heal, doctor?" violet asks worriedly.

"two to three months, my lady. possibly even more, depending on the severity."

"she'll miss the entirety of the season! maybe even more. can nothing be done?" violet queries. eloise, on the other hand, feels as though her wish of an escape has actually been granted.

"i'm afraid not, she must try to keep her weight off of it as much as she can. there is not much else that can be done, it will take time. maybe the countryside and fresh air will help, away from the busyness of the ton and the social season."

violet does not miss the way her daughter's face lights up. eloise, sensing her mother is about to refuse, speaks up.

"please, mama, i promise i'll be good. i'd be bored to death here anyway. at least at aubrey hall i'd get to enjoy the library." eloise can see the hesitation on violet's face, but she can see the moment she relents.

"alright, but your y/n is going with you."

eloise's smile drops but she knows arguing will just result in her stuck in london. so she agrees ruefully.

it's just you and eloise in the carriage on the way to aubrey hall, the rest of the bridgertons busy with the social season. you help eloise to her room, making sure she is comfortable before leaving to go make arrangements for dinner.

the short walk up the stairs to eloise's room that she insisted on staying in took a lot more out of her than she expected. her foot really was in a bad condition, that was true, but not bad enough that she would need to supervised at night too, she thought.

she's just settled into bed with a book after you helped her get ready for bed after dinner, when you walk into the room again, this time in a nightgown of your own, and a thin rolled up mattress, pillow, and sheets in hand.

"i'll be fine for the night, you can go," eloise says, briefly looking up from her book, slightly irritated.

"i'm sorry, miss bridgerton," you begin, already setting up your sleeping area for the night. "but i'm under strict instructions from the dowager viscountess and the viscount. i am to constantly be by your side, should you need anything, and that means sleeping in the same room as you."

you see as the irritation begins to bleed into her face, brows closer together, a slight frown on her lips.

"can't you just tell them you did and not actually sleep here? i'd quite like some privacy."

"my apologies, miss bridgerton, but i can't. i take my job and my duties to you and your family very seriously. i wouldn't do anything to jeopardise the trust your mother and brother have placed in me."

"i do not care about any of that! i just want a moment's peace from you!" eloise bursts out, red splotches high on her face. she makes a move to get out of bed but the pain in her leg flares up. within seconds, you are by her side, warm, gentle hands carefully positioning her foot back on the pillow.

"i'm afraid i have to disappoint you, miss. but i'm here to stay."

days in the countryside slipped into a routine. you would wake up first, prepare breakfast for eloise, along with a book. you'd get her ready for the day, and then station her by the large windows, refuse her when she wanted to walk around, and help her should she rebel anyways.

you confused eloise. why had you still not budged? and despite your stubborn moments, why did you always otherwise treat her with gentleness? here, in the countryside with less people around, she had seen you smile more. your hair was in a slightly looser updo, and your usual uniform not as strict. more than a few times, eloise found herself looking much too closely at you.

last night for instance, when you came back with your bedding after getting eloise ready for bed, in a thin, worn shift that hung loosely off your frame. the fire illuminated your silhouette through the thin shift as you stood facing it, getting ready for bed. eloise found her concentration completely off her book, a funny feeling in her chest. she could feel her cheeks heating up and her heart beating faster. she had never felt like this before, this flustered. she only prayed the candlelight was dim enough for you to be unable to make out the blush she was sure was on her face.

it confused her even further. being the analytical person she was, she read into every look, every touch. did she leave you as flustered as you did her? did you also feel this shortness of breath, this disappearing heartbeat?

she feels your fingers gently run through her scalp. everything feels different since that night. she can't help but try to look for clues, discern your expressions, your emotions, feelings. did you also feel this foreign feeling? she had bathed with the help of many a ladies' maids, but why does it suddenly feel so intimate? as though baring her unclothed body to you was akin to baring her heart out flat? the thought terrified and thrilled her at the same time, that you might truly see her, understand her and her feelings better than anyone.

the lukewarm water trickles down eloise's back as you gently move her hair and run the washcloth over her shoulders. you're kneeling by the bathtub, steadfastly refusing to make eye contact with eloise even though you feel her eyes on you. you switch to focus on washing her legs next, taking precaution to be extra gentle with her healing foot. your mind has just drifted to the thought about how intimate giving a simple bath to your employer can be if you harbour specific feelings for them, when eloise's hand, warm from the bath, wraps around your wrist. you finally make eye contact, and the desperation and emotions you find in her eyes knocks the breath out of you.

warm, wet hands cup your face gently, and you feel drawn to wherever they are pulling you to. you wait with bated breath, afraid that she'll stop, afraid that you would stop feeling her breath on your face, noses a hair's width apart. instinctively, your eyes close, and then you feel the softest pair of lips you've ever felt on yours. the perfume from her bathwater clouds your senses as her lips run over yours a little clumsily, but the hunger in the kiss makes up for it. you have never felt this kind of unadulterated desire in any other kiss before.

you kiss back with the same amount of hunger, tongue running over the seam of her lips, silently asking her to grant you permission, and she does. your fingers sink into damp hair, the feel of which you know all too well, as hers map the curves of your face and neck, and dare to go lower. a finger runs against your collarbone, taking advantage of the first few buttons undone and splaying against your sternum. you let her pull you into the bath with her, uncaring of your dress getting wet. when she further unbuttons your dress, you don't protest, letting her hands explore.

when you pull away after what feels like hours, there is a soft smile on her face, unlike her usual smirk, blush high on her cheeks and lips swollen, hair damp and skin glowing under the lamplight. you have seen her in many situations but you think she has never looked more divine.

things change between you after that. stolen kisses and casual touches behind closed doors, not a moment out of eloise's bed at night, going to sleep with the feel of her lips on yours, her taste still in your mouth. eloise grows more confident with her touches, no longer hesitant to mess up your appearance during your stolen moments, her hands slipping beneath the hem of your shift. as her foot heals little by little, she shows you further into the estate, taking any chance she can to leave your lips swollen and your cheeks hot. everything is so picture perfect that you are afraid of the bubble bursting when you do have to inevitably return back to ton.

and, inevitably as predicted, it does. the season ends with eloise's foot still on the mend, but her family's return to the countryside, while she finds that a joyous prospect, means distance between you both. still, it's not bad, you two still get to spend most of your time together, and you both master the art of stolen moments. it is not until the next season rolls around that the bubble is well and truly shattered.

a suitor starts pursuing eloise earnestly, and eloise doesn't seem entirely opposed to the idea. you know she was still trying to get over penelope's marriage to her brother, and the end to their future plans of spinsterhood. the spiral it sent her on had caused a rift between the both of you, but there was nothing you could do to bridge the distance, no matter how hard you tried; eloise had retired to her thoughts ever since.

eloise spent less time with you, and you found yourself spending more time with her footman, john, in an effort to distract yourself when thoughts of eloise consumed you entirely. john was a good man, he made you laugh and forget your problems with eloise, if only for a moment.

eloise walks into the drawing room and finds her mother and you, so reminiscent of that first day. instead of irritation or apprehension this time, her chest fills with knots. she hasn't spoken to you properly or spent time with you in weeks. she was too preoccupied in her own thoughts and refused to let you in. you won't meet her eyes now and the heavy feeling keeps growing heavier. you feel worlds apart. she never meant for the distance to happen.

"oh, eloise dear, come here," violet exclaims. "oh this is most wonderful news. y/n is getting married!"

"i- what?" shock colours eloise's voice. "to whom?"

"to footman john. now don't be impolite, eloise, isn't it just marvelous news?"

"yes, marvelous indeed." she chokes on the words, the fear of losing you coming to life. she was so scared, preoccupied with wallowing in her spinsterhood without pen, that she pushed you away. she feels her throat start to close up. "excuse me, mama, i just remembered i have to do something."

you watch with worried eyes as eloise departs, and follow after her, seeing if she needs anything. after all, that is what your job is, and it was stupid of you to think you that your relationship with her, whatever it may have been, could ever amount to anything more.

when you walk into her room, you see eloise pacing around, clutching her chest, tears streaming down her face.

"i do not want to see you right now." hurt colours her tone.

"eloise, i-"

"you do not get to call me that! you do not get to shatter my heart and then call me that."

"what do you want me to do, eloise? you cannot expect me to sit around waiting for you while you search for a suitor for yourself." you burst out, tears of your own now making a path down your cheeks. "you can't expect me to chaperone your promenades with suitors, bear that hurt. you cannot expect that of me. not when you don't want to give us a chance, not when you don't want to give us a future."

"i- that is not true."

"if that is not true, then tell me what i am to you. tell me that you are not considering marriage with any of your suitors. how long will you keep denying yourself love, deny what you and i are? marrying any of these men will not solve anything, even though i know you think it will. i love you, eloise, i gave my entire heart to you. can you say it back?" you have moved closer to her, eyes pleading with her to respond.

but she doesn't, turns away from you. "i can't, you know i can't."

you never thought words could hurt this much. the sting of tears is still fresh when you see eloise for the last time. "then this is goodbye, eloise. i hope you manage to find happiness."

when sir phillip kisses her at the altar, her mind drifts to her last kiss, a few years ago now. the ghost of soft lips on hers, feathering light kisses across her cheekbones and eyes, of lips curving into a gentle smile against hers. she feels the wrongness of this one, the stubble rubbing against her chin, slightly rough lips. but she'll drown herself on it nonetheless, choke on it until it erases her memories from her mind, takes with it that fateful final day. she can't turn back time, so she'll settle for this, the ghost of a soft kiss and gentle arms around her.

[munchmemes]

chappell roan lyrics, the rise and fall of a midwest princess edition ( + bonus 'good luck, babe!' for reasons )

▸ same old story, time again. got so close but then you lost it. ▸ i'm so sick of online love. ▸ um, can you play a song with a fucking beat? ▸ you're lying to your friends about how [they're] such a goddamn good lover. ▸ you got what you wanted so stop feeling sorry. ▸ you know what i mean and you know what you need. and so do they! but does it happen? no! ▸ you showed me things i didn't know. ▸ i just want you to make a move. so, slow down, sit down, it's new. ▸ i just wanna get to know ya. guess i didn't quite think it through. ▸ i fell in love with the thought of you. ▸ baby, why don't you come over? ▸ i like what you like. ▸ want me to fuck you? baby, i will 'cause i really want to. ▸ well, back at my house i got a california king. okay, maybe it's a twin bed and some roommates. ▸ let's make this bed get squeaky. ▸ my mama said nothing good happens when it's late and you're dancing alone. ▸ this is what i wanted, this is what i like. ▸ i kinda wanna kiss your [girl/boy]friend if you don't mind. ▸ i love a little drama, let's start a bar fight. ▸ everything good happens after midnight. ▸ i really want your hands on my body. ▸ that's my type of fun, that's my kind of party. ▸ i'll meet you for coffee 'cause if we have wine, you'll say that you want me and i know that's a lie. ▸ if i didn't love you, it would be fine. ▸ every place leads back to your place. ▸ i'd rather feel something than nothing at all so ... ▸ we've done this before and i don't need it anymore. ▸ it's never just coffee. ▸ i've heard so many rumors. that i'm just a [girl] that you bang on your couch. ▸ i thought you thought of me better. someone you couldn't lose. ▸ is it casual now? ▸ it's hard being casual. ▸ i try to be the chill [girl] but honestly i'm not. ▸ i hate that i let this drag on so long, now i hate myself. ▸ you know what they say: never waste a friday night one a first date. ▸ not overdramatic, i know what i want.

▸ we're hot, we're drunk. ▸ at every party, we're the party. ▸ get up off your feet, get up on that bar. ▸ i could be the one or your new addiction. ▸ call me hot, not pretty. ▸ i try not to care but it hurts my feelings. ▸ who knew that we'd let it get this bad when it ended? ▸ i heard it from [NAME], you're losing it lately. ▸ people say i'm jealous but my kink is watching you ruining your life. ▸ people say i'm jealous but my kink is karma. ▸ wishing you the best, in the worst way. ▸ it's hot when you're going through hell and you're hating yourself, i'm feeling myself. ▸ do you picture me like i picture you? ▸ i'm too scared to say half of the things i do when i picture you. ▸ i guess we could pretend we didn't cross a line. ▸ if you really wanna leave, i'll never make you stay. ▸ whatever you decide, i will understand. ▸ love is a kaleidoscope. how it works we'll never know. ▸ i know you wanted me to stay but i can't ignore the crazy visions. ▸ i'm having wicked dreams. ▸ every night's another reason why i left it all. ▸ don't think i've left you all behind. i still love you and you're always on my mind. ▸ god, what have you done? ▸ i'm gonna keep on dancing. ▸ i'd love if you knew you were on my mind constant like cicadas in the summertime. ▸ we could go to hell but we'll probably be fine. ▸ we're an inch away from more than just friends. ▸ won't you fucking touch me? ▸ if it hasn't happened yet then maybe you should go. ▸ to think i almost had it going but i let you down. ▸ too hard to find reasons to stay. even true love could not persuade. ▸ come get me out. ▸ sometimes i scare myself but i can't help what i can't help. ▸ i fantasize what we would do. ▸ some good girls do bad things too. ▸ i wants this like a cigarette. can we drag it out and never quit? ▸ oh my god, you are heaven-sent. ▸ you can say that we are nothing but you know the truth. ▸ guess i'm the fool. ▸ i don't wanna call it off but you don't wanna call it love. ▸ good luck, babe! ▸ you'd have to stop the world just to stop the feeling. ▸ i'm cliche, who cares? ▸ when you wake up next to him in the middle of the night with your head in your hands, you're nothing more than his wife. ▸ you know i hate to say it, i told you so.

[quillady]

you wake up next to him, in the middle of the night.

for a hot summer night, you two didn't cuddle and your nightmares weren't helping. You had no idea why you kept having them tonight. Rick's tired snore and little kicks did no help too. So you decided to go down and get some cold water to drink, it was a hot night after all.

you took a glass and sent the cold water right down your throat before sitting on the kitchen

with your head in your hand

you think about few of your nightmares. It was this time around you ran away with Rick, wasn't it? You were the only one not from the Smith family and not affected from the love poison. And your mom.

You didn't just 𝘩𝘢𝘵𝘦 her but you two weren't playing for favorites too. You were an unexpected pregnancy for your mom and she ran away from your dad, knowing he doesn't want kids. Even though you didn't do anything about it she always blamed you for losing her dear husband...

But her words through your mind, the ones that still echo in your ears tonight and the exact words she told you in your dream.

you will be nothing more than his wife.

she was right, you didn't wish to marry Rick at first but he lulled you into himself. He was like another dream Now you just felt like you were 6 feet deep into many dreams..

and.. 𝑹𝒊𝒄𝒌? He wasn't the best husband or lover. He showed you the affection you wanted but his drinking problem never really changed.

and when you think about me, all of those year later

you took a deep breath, eyes welling with tears.

𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙧𝙚𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙩𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨? 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖 𝙛𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙡𝙮, 𝙖 𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙥 𝙙𝙖𝙪𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙘𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙙𝙧𝙚𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖 𝙝𝙪𝙨𝙗𝙖𝙣𝙙?

"y/n..why did you leave? I panicked.."

there he was, the man of your doubts. Yet everytime he appeared like that, you couldn't help but adore him more. The messed up hair, sleepy red eyes, deep voice and a tall figure, hardly standing on his two feet with all the sleep he has. Yet he fought the feeling of it to find you, didn't he? he came closer to you, as you sat on the counter. he wrapped his arms around your body and snuggled his face to the crook of your neck. 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵'𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯. even though you didn't mean to, you weren't a silent crier. he raised his head to see your face and he gave you a soft smile after his little fright.

"i-is everything alright? did-did i do something to you, why?"

at this point, there was no turning back. what would you do if you listened to your mother anyways? she was sick, it was a surprise how she didn't have the flu until then and then you'd be the only one there, fighting your life off until you got infected or give up at one point or another.

"no Rick it's, it's not you.. I just had, nightmares... "

He smiled with relief and raised you from the counter, carrying you to your room while you wrap your legs around him not to fall. Just as you enter the room, your eyelids get heavy and you feel sleep coming after you. Rick starts the AC while jumping in bed with you in his arms, cuddling you to sleep. You aren't sure if you heard it right or was it just a little nightmare trying to get to you before Rick kissed your forehead but you know you heard someone say

"I told you so."

idk if it was obvious but this is based on

"Good luck, babe!" by Chappel Roan.

Why? I was just listening to it and felt like I needed to do something about it.

Now it's not that I haven't thought of making y/n bi but she has to be loyal ykk.

bc i hate the "you live with the one you wed but die with the one in ur mind."

thats stupid:>

and idk if this is good and i dont even edit these but if you like it lmk and if you have any requests I'm open to any (excluding smut. I've never written smut be4)

[yvesdot]

Well, this is new! I watched the entire VMAs (just about) for the first time ever, and here is my official writeup—less so for Dots (certainly not a public-facing project), more for all my friends I want to gossip with. Here’s everything I’m going to be talking about for the next few days that happened at the VMAs, with helpful links to all the available clips.

Before anything happened, Kendrick released a new song on Instagram. This immediately trended alongside the VMAs for the rest of the night.

*

Chappell Roan snapped at a photographer on the red carpet. It’s still frankly unclear to me what happened—in the video I’ve seen passed around, you hear a voice in the background say “shut the fuck up,” to which Chappell turns and retorts, “you shut the fuck up!” When they apparently protest, she shuts them down, saying, “not me, bitch!” It’s unclear whether the photographer in question was originally talking to her, or to another photographer, and also whether she was accusing him of saying anything to her. I’m not personally invested in finding out more.

*

Eminem opened by performing “Houdini” and “Someone Save Me;” I showed up halfway through with the volume on mute and had no idea why that man was wearing the world’s worst blonde wig. I do think the obvious visual reference to his original VMAs “Slim Shady” performance is genuinely cute. It is unbelievable he still rapped the “If I was to ask for Megan Thee Stallion if she would collab with me / Would I really have a shot at a feat [shot at her feet]?” lines with Megan Thee Stallion hosting.

*

Megan was adorable and an excellent host. She is so funny, so genuine, so easy to watch and so good at balancing being personable and competent. Honestly, she and Chappell gave some very similar energy tonight and it made me wonder if they know each other (I am not very aware of Chappell things—yet!) She was also, naturally, exceptionally well-dressed. The crowd absolutely loved her.

*

Taylor immediately won the “Best Collaboration” award for Fornite with Post Malone, which began a streak of 7 awards won that night, mostly for that one song, despite the fact that her latest album has been one of her worst-received by fans and critics alike. (This is not a comment on whether the songs on the album are good or not, just on the relative success in comparison with her past work and the reception of other projects nominated. It’s surprising.) Her seven awards were the aforementioned Best Collaboration, Song of Summer, Best Pop, Artist of the Year, Best Direction, Best Editing, and Video of the Year at the end of the night. This ties her with Beyonce for most VMAs ever won. She also claims a number of other records, but I am not going to list all that. 

I will tell you that she opened this acceptance speech with “Waking up this morning in New York on September 11th, I’ve just been thinking about what happened 23 years ago; everyone who lost a loved one and everyone that we lost. That is the most important thing about today and everything that happens tonight falls behind that,” and then continued as if this had been a normal thing to say and/or she had not said it.

I’m still frustrated at the timing of her endorsement of Harris coincidentally last night. It feels too obviously set up to quell rising fan anger and ensure every award she won would be “untainted” by people’s criticisms of her.

*

Megan recreated the iconic Britney-with-a-snake look.

*

Sabrina Carpenter performed a lovely medley. She opened singing “Please Please Please” (with the “motherfucker!”) on a swing, descended to a couple of audio clips including the iconic Britney line about Titanic from her “Oops! I Did it Again” music video, performed “Taste” with an astronaut and an alien (she did kiss the femalien, though Britney Spears (!) commented she ought to have kissed a girl), and transitioned into “Espresso” with a few dozen astronaut backup dancers. I loved her outfit and especially the lipstick mark on her thigh (!!?!!), and I have to give her credit for doing this insane performance setup in front of both Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello, about whom “Taste” was allegedly written.

*

Katy Perry accepted the previously-announced Video Vanguard Award and performed a medley of tracks—in order, “Dark Horse,” “E.T.,” new track “I’m His, He’s Mine” featuring Doechii, “California Gurls,” “Teenage Dream,” “I Kissed a Girl” (rock version), “Firework,” and “Lifetimes.” You may notice that “Woman’s World” was nowhere on this list. Also, during their performance of “I’m His, He’s Mine,” Katy and Doechii scissored in a possible reference to Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion’s 2021 Grammys performance of W.A.P., and MTV cut directly to Orlando Bloom in a likely reference to the Britney/Madonna/Christina VMAs kiss where they cut to Justin Timberlake.

In my opinion, it was a great performance from the choice of tracks to the aesthetic(s) to her voice. She clearly still has it! However, people audibly booed when her name was announced and several times as she gave her speech, which, side note, opened with ““I did that all too on the first day of my period, if you can believe it!” It didn’t help that she chose to—well, look, here’s the whole thing, bold by me.

Can you believe it? Thank you so much to MTV for believing in my weirdness from day one and for helping artists extend their worlds beyond a song. There are so many things that have to align to have a long and successful career as an artist. There are no decade-long accidents. (a long, meaningful pause, during which people booed) So I would like to acknowledge a few people: my team who have been with me for over 20 years, direct management, and my label Capitol Records.

Trust me, it takes a village of strong people, a lot of healthy discourse, and a lot of group chats. My parents and my family, the deepest roots I know. We don’t always agree, but what a lesson that those disagreements can still be full of love. Thank you to MySpace, Warped Tour, and all the bygone places where I found a voice, identity, and a community so early on. Thank you to the friends that were there when my Jetta was repossessed. My Katy Cats: You stood by me for a lifetime, and the LGBTQ community who I recognize I would not be here without and who show me that you can be both kind and [bleeped out—”cunt”?]. Thank you to Orlando for keeping me grounded, celebrated, and doing the dishes. And lastly for my Daisy [her daughter], the only flowers I’ll ever need.

I’m excited when I look around music today, and I see all the amazing young artists who are operating with confidence, agency, vulnerability and authenticity. I’ve heard a lot of “Do this, don’t say that, wear less, wear more now. Hey, don’t cut your hair.” One of the biggest reasons I’m standing here right now is I learned how to block out all the noise that every single artist in this industry has to constantly fight against, especially women. I just wanna say with my whole heart, do whatever it takes to stay true to yourself and true to your art. Turn off social media, safeguard your mental health, pause, touch grass. And do what you were born to do just like I was born to do this. 143 comes out September 20. I love you!

I probably don’t need to say it, but I find it incredibly upsetting and disappointing that she would frame the criticism of her, which has centered almost entirely on her working with Dr. Luke, someone whom numerous women have accused of being misogynist and generally abusive, as “noise that women artists have to deal with.”

Also, I don’t have video proof of this, but they played a truly bizarre intro to the award where they called her “the queen of camp” and said “she’s a mother and she IS mother” and I don’t know what to do about that. They did play the world’s briefest audio snippet of “Woman’s World” during that.

*

Chappell Roan performed “Good Luck Babe” and nothing else, which nonetheless seemed to quiet upset fans whose shows were canceled with little notice last week due to the “scheduling conflict” of Chappell deciding to do the VMAs. I wish the mixing had been better; I could barely hear her voice! But the aesthetic was lovely (very Dorian Electra “Man to Man”) and the set was extremely well-used. She definitely seems unused to performing in this more regimented style, but there’s an infinite amount of time for her to either get comfortable with it or adapt it more to her usual performance method of running all over the stage.

*

Tyla won Best Afrobeats for “Water,” obviously. Lil Nas X (presenting the award with Halle) could be heard saying “But we already knew, though, right?” as she approached the stage. She gave the world’s most diplomatic speech which acknowledged that African music is (obviously) more diverse than the label “Afrobeats.”

*

Megan delivered an incredible medley performance: “BOA,” a sample of “Wanna Be,” “B.A.S,” a sample of “RATTLE,” “HISS,” and “MAMUSHI”—with a surprise appearance by featured artist Yuki Chiba, in a cool hat! And may I just say, for all-around stage presence, choreography, vocals, delivery, everything, Megan stole the show 100%. And that’s with all the ridiculous censoring she had to do! If you are not into Megan, you need to be, now. She is the moment.

*

Benson Boone did a flip (1:29) while performing “Beautiful Things,” a song I found myself hearing for the second time ever. It is apparently the song of the summer to many people. That’s cool! I genuinely had never heard it in my life before this week. He’s clearly an exceptionally talented performer, so let’s see where he goes.

*

Sabrina Carpenter won “Song of the Year” for “Espresso” and seemed genuinely shocked, somehow.

*

Halsey did an absolutely gorgeous performance of “Ego,” a song I hadn’t heard before but found myself liking. I should get into Halsey!

*

Camila, the other half (?) of the Camila-Shawn-Sabrina love triangle, with an album which underperformed (especially in comparison to Sabrina’s), faked out the audience (including her ex and his sometime-other-girl!) by pretending to play “June Gloom,” the closer from the standard edition of the album about why he runs back to her if he really likes Sabrina so much, and then cutting the recording off to actually sing “GODSPEED,” the closer off the deluxe version—and the latest single, dropped only last week. Apparently it’s the first track she wrote for this era, after a breakup with an entirely different ex. Point being, I give her a lot of props for just how much that moment rocked.

I suppose as a professional I ought to say all this is only allegedly what the songs are about. But, you know, we know.

*

You know Glorilla rocked the house down. Having seen her in SF, I could tell just how much she’d improved since then, not just in her performing skills generally but in her confidence. You go, Glo.

*

Chappell Roan won “Best New Artist” in a moment everyone saw coming a mile away and read her acceptance speech from her diary. She’s so cute!

*

Video of the Year went to Taylor and she shouted out “my boyfriend, Travis Kelce,” in her speech. This is not news, but people screamed like it was? She also told people to vote. None of this is really important to me but you need to know that I went to r/GaylorSwift again after several months’ abstention as a result of the way people were talking about it. People chanted Taylor’s name. Also, Megan initially opened the little card upside down, which was adorable.

*

Best performances of the night: Katy Perry, Megan Thee Stallion, and Halsey.

Most deserved wins of the night: 

Chappell Roan (Best New Artist)

“Espresso” (Song of the Year)

“Water” (Best Afrobeats)

“Mamushi” (Best Trending Video, though any pick might have been good)

“BOA” (Best Art Direction)

Biggest snubs of the night: 

“Not Like Us” (Song of Summer, “Fortnight”)

“Paparazzi” (VMAs Most Iconic Performance, “Roar” — a case where any other pick would have been better)

Sabrina Carpenter (Artist of the Year, Taylor Swift)

Glorilla & Megan Thee Stallion’s “Wanna Be” (Best Collaboration, “Fortnight”)

Olivia Rodrigo, Sabrina Carpenter (Best Pop, Taylor Swift)

“Too Sweet” (Best Alternative, “Beautiful Things”)

“Von dutch” (Best Cinematography, “we can’t be friends (wait for your love)”)

“Rush” by Troye Sivan and “greedy” by Tate Mcrae (Best Choreography, “Houdini”)

Additionally, “Espresso” was not nominated for Song of Summer (“Please Please Please” was), and Britney’s “Slave 4 U” was not nominated for VMAs Most Iconic Performance.

Here’s the full list of nominations and wins. 

Here’s my compilation of favorite outfits. Katy Perry wore a QR code tramp stamp which led to preorders for her album.

*

Other thoughts:

LISA and Anitta and Rauw Alejandro’s performances were also great! I don’t know that this was the best intro to their songs (my stream was not excellent quality) but I’m glad I stuck around!

Ads for HIV medication and Kamala Harris played throughout the night. There was one ad of Camila’s “I LUV IT” playing while she did insane things and drank Bacardi that almost made me dislike the song.

Charli not being anywhere near this event was criminal. I know she has the Sweat tour to rehearse for (I’m going to see her! AHHHH!!!!) but I really felt her absence. People also expected Taylor and Ariana to perform, and neither of them did—Ariana wasn’t even present! Lady Gaga wasn’t, either, which is a possible reason “Paparazzi” didn’t win Most Iconic VMAs Performance; apparently the VMAs prefer to give awards to artists who are present so they can give a live speech. Meanwhile, they gave Artist of the Year to Taylor Swift for the second year in a row and didn’t air it because she was walking in and out. Make of that what you will.

I successfully predicted the results of 5 awards (Best New Artist: Chappell Roan, Best Afrobeats: Tyla, Best Direction: Fortnight, Best Editing: Fortnight, and Video of the Year: Fortnight). Next year I might just start gambling and put it all on TSwift; it seems an easy victory.

Let me know if you want more of this sort of thing! I've done it for presidential debates in the past, too, though that was Patreon-exclusive. Heck, if I wasn't on hiatus, this might have been, too ^__^

[doyouknowthemossinman]

my writing process is basically

write down a banger line that comes later in the story and/or a hard opening line that i'm definitely going to change or scrap later

put on background noise (eddy burback's "i ate at every margaritaville in the ocuntry)

get distracted by eddy burback going to every margaritaville in the country

pause the video and write more

h-o-t-t-o-g-o you can take me hot to go

listen to fall of a midwest princess by chappell roan

realize i'm distracted and haven't written anything for 20 minutes

put on appropriate mood music for the story

lock in and write for 3 hours without blinking

awake from my trance dehydrated and hungry but with yet another brainchild in the form of words on my screen

post without editing

[maddie-kungs-emporium]

My 10 Favorite TTRPGs (2021)

There’s plenty of amazing tabletop games out there, but I have a few favorites that I absolutely love. The most important are presented below, along with a paragraph of explanation of why I like them. If you have a bit of spare cash burning a hole in your pocket, then hit up Drivethrurpg and find yourself a copy! Before we get started though, here’s a few ground rules.  1. No two from the same system (e.g. I can’t put Mummy: the Curse and Mage: the Awakening on the list even though I dearly want to). This is mostly to prevent one system from being overrepresented (Looking at you, PbtA). By the same token I can’t put multiple editions of the same game or anything like that. 2. None of my own games. Obviously there would be bias there, wouldn’t there? 3. I have to have enough experience with the game to properly rate it. This means I have to have read the game and have a keen understanding of it. 

4. This is my personal opinion. No specific criteria are used beyond whether or not I enjoy them.  With that being said, let’s start from 10#. 

10#: Golden Sky Stories (Star Line Publishing)

This game is on the list because it is one of the most avant-garde games out there, which only makes sense from the philosophy it was created from. If you want a simple game about talking Japanese raccoons you can play with children, check this out. Furthermore, the game is possibly the most peaceful and relaxed from a writing standpoint you can get with any piece of media.

9#: Vampire: the Masquerade (White Wolf But It’s Complicated)

This game is the most personally significant to me on the list. It has serious flaws which prevent it from being any higher, but this game literally saved my life during the darkest periods of when I was young, and I mean that. I don’t actually recommend this to the majority of people, at least not unless you’re already interested, but I could not honestly make a list without it.

8#: Deadball (WM Akers)

This may strike some people as an odd choice, given it is barely a TTRPG and completely flies in the face of many basic game design principles. However, not only does Deadball stretch the limits of both TTRPGs and the game of baseball at the same time, but it does so in a way so simple that even a child can pick it up. If you want a little soothing game to play with your friends and family, it’s definitely one to consider.

7#: Qin: the Warring States (Cubicle 7)

This is one of the few games, which, in my opinion, portrays my Chinese culture in a way that is nuanced and respectful while also doing something different with it. Portraying a criminally underused historical period is one thing, but the accuracy with which they do it is another. Easily the best historical game I’ve ever come across, sorry Ars Magica, Würm and Pendragon!

6#: Flying Circus (Newsstand Press)

There is not a universe in existence where I don’t praise Erika Chappell on one of these. While Flying Circus isn’t as personally significant to me as a lot of the other games on here, it’s mechanics, lore and use of PbtA are some of the best I’ve ever read. Please check if out, you would make me very happy doing so.

5#: Adventures in Middle Earth (Cubicle 7)

From the 5E engine specifically, this game is easily the most mechanically solid I’ve ever seen. While there were other competitors, the reason Adventures in Middle Earth is so high up is because of all the things you could do with Middle Earth, with Tolkien’s incredible imagination, this is one of the far superior uses. I cannot recommend this game enough. Sadly, this is out of print, but it is still occasionally available via humble bundles. If you can find a copy and want to see what 5E’s mechanics can do at their creative peak, get it.

4#: Star Trek Adventures (Modiphius)

Not gonna lie, my enjoyment of 2d20 is hit and miss. I thought it was okay for most things, I didn’t like the Dishonored hack very much, and the Dune hack had good ideas but top-heavy execution, but Star Trek Adventures is easily the best use of this system. Doing the world of Star Trek complete justice, this game combines masterful synergy with the 2d20 engine at its best with an understanding of Star Trek that has yet to be beat.

3#: Tales From the Loop/Things From the Flood (Free League)

If I’m being perfectly honest, I like this better than Kids on Bikes. This game captures the feeling of youth as well as the ideas of teen movies incredibly well, and the Year Zero Engine is one of my favorite systems. Without a doubt, Free League is one the best TTRPG publishers in the business.

2#: Shadow of the Demon Lord (Schwalb Entertainment)

Not only is the closest thing to a perfect 5.5E we’ll ever get, but this game is easily the most mechanically solid on this list. It’s difficult to argue that of all the interpretation of the D20 systems you could come up with that Schwalb’s isn’t one of if not the most captivating. The world of Rûl is excellently done as well, especially considering it wasn’t even intended to be more than a default setting, so go check it out.

1#: Promethean: the Created (Onyx Path)

This is easily the best TTRPG in the history of the industry. Not only does it function as an exploration of the human condition worthy of preservation in the MoMA, but it is mechanically solid with amazing lore and an incredibly meaningful message. This game is one of, if not the, most amazing creative endeavors in any media. Honorable mentions go to Hoodoo Blues (Vajra), Ashen Stars (Pelgrane Press), Legend of the Five Rings (FFG), and Dark Heresy 2E (FFG). Thanks for reading.

[crowdvscritic]

round up // NOVEMBER 20

Hi, I’m tired. Actually, my friend Celeste created a piece of art that puts the emphasis needed on that sentiment:

I’m very tired. November felt like it was three years and also felt like it went by in a blink and also I’m not sure where October ended and November began—how does time work like that? (I’ve yet to see Tenet, but maybe that will explain it.) But like Michael Scott, somehow I manage, and lately it’s been like this:

Late-night Etsy scrolling. Browsing beautiful, non-big-box-store artwork is very calming just before I go to bed. I’d recommend Etsy stores like Celeste’s chr paperie shop, which I know from experience is full of great Christmas gift ideas. 

Taking a day off of work to do laundry. I’m not sure if it’s more #adulting that I did that or that I was excited to do that.

Eating Ghiradelli chocolate chips straight from the bag. I actually don’t recommend this as a healthy option, but this is also not a health blog.

Watching lots and lots of ‘80s movies. One day I’ll ask a therapist why this decade of films is so comforting for me despite its many flaws, but for now I’m just rolling with it.

Reading. Have you heard of this? It’s a form of entertainment but doesn’t require screens—wild!

Memes. All good Pippin “Fool of a” Took jokes are welcome here.

Leaning into the Christmas spirit by ordering that Starbucks peppermint mocha, making plans to watch everything in that TCM Christmas book I haven’t seen, and keeping the lights on my hot pink tinsel tree on all day as I work from home.

This month’s Round Up is full of stuff that made me smile and stuff that sucked me into its world—I think they’ll do the same for you, too.

November Crowd-Pleasers

Sister Act (1992)

If in four years you aren’t in an emotional state to watch election results roll in, I recommend watching Whoopi Goldberg pretend to be a nun for 100 minutes. (Though, incidentally, if you want to watch that clip edited to specifically depict how the results came in this year, you’ll need to watch Sister Act 2.) This musical-comedy is about as feel-good as it gets, meaning there’s no reason you should wait four more years to watch it. Crowd: 9/10 // Critic: 7.5/10

Nevada Memes

Speaking of election results, Nevada memes. That’s it—that’s the tweet. Vulture has a round up of some of the best.

SNL Round Up

Laugh and enjoy!

“Cinema Classics: The Birds” (4605 with John Mulaney)

“Uncle Ben” (4606 with Dave Chappelle)

RoboCop (1987)

I’m not surprised I liked RoboCop, but I am surprised at why I liked RoboCop. Not only is this a boss action blockbuster, it’s an investigation into consumerism and the commodification of the human body. It’s also a critique of institutions that treat crime like statistics instead of actions done by people that impact people. That said, it’s also movie about a guy who’s fused with a robot and melts another guy’s face off with toxic sludge, so there’s a reason I’m not listing this under the Critic section. Crowd: 9/10 // Critic: 8/10

Double Feature – ‘80s Comedies: National Lampoon’s Vacation (1983) + Major League (1989)

The ‘80s-palooza is in full swing! In Vacation (Crowd: 9.5/10 // Critic: 8/10), Chevy Chase just wants to spend time with his family on a vacation to Wally World, but wouldn’t you know it, Murphy’s Law kicks into gear as soon as the Griswold family shifts from out of Park. The brilliance of the movie is that every one of these terrible things is plausible, but the Griswolds create the biggest problems themselves. In Major League (Crowd: 8.5/10 // Critic: 6.5/10), Tom Berenger, Charlie Sheen, and Wesley Snipes are Cleveland’s last hope for a winning baseball team. Like the Griswolds, mishaps and hijinks ensue in their attempt to prevent their greedy owner from moving the Indians to Miami, but the real win is this movie totally gets baseball fans. Like most ‘80s movies, not everything in this pair has aged well, but they brought some laughs when I needed them most.

This Time Next Year by Sophie Cousens (2020)

They’re born a minute apart in the same hospital, but they don’t meet until their 30th birthday on New Year’s Day. So, yes, it’s a little bit Serendipity, and it’s a little bit sappy, but those are both marks in this book’s favor. This Time Next Year is a time-hopping rom-com with lots of almost-meet-cutes that will have you laughing, believing in romantic twists of fate, and finding hope for the new year.

Double Feature – ‘80s Angsty Teens: Teen Wolf (1985) + Uncle Buck (1989)

In the ‘80s, Hollywood finally understood the angsty teen, and this pair of comedies isn’t interested in the melodrama earlier movies like Rebel Without a Cause were depicting. (I’d recommend Rebel, but not if you want to look back on your teen years with any sense of humor.) In Teen Wolf (Crowd: 8/10 // Critic: 5/10), Michael J. Fox discovers he’s a werewolf.one that looks more like the kid in Jumanji than any other portrayal of a werewolf you’ve seen. It’s a plot so ‘80s and so bizarre you won’t believe this movie was greenlit.

In Uncle Buck (Crowd: 8/10 // Critic: 7.5/10), John Candy is attempting to connect with the nieces and nephew he hasn’t seen in years, including one moody high schooler. (Plus, baby Gaby Hoffman and pre-Home Alone Macauley Culkin!) This is my second pick from one of my all-time fave filmmakers, John Hughes (along with National Lampoon’s Vacation, above), and it’s one more entry that balances heart and humor in a way only he could do. You can see where I rank this movie in Hughes’s pantheon on Letterboxd.

Lord of the Rings memes

This month on SO IT’S A SHOW?, Kyla and I revisited The Lord of the Rings, a trilogy we love almost as much as we love Gilmore Girls. You can listen to our episode about the series on your fave podcast app, and you can laugh through hundreds of memes like I did for “research” on Twitter.

Nothing to See Here by Kevin Wilson (2019)

Most adults are afraid of children’s temper tantrums, but can you imagine how terrified you’d be if they caught on fire in their fits of rage? That’s the premise of this novel, which begins when an aimless twentysomething becomes the nanny of a Tennessee politician’s twins who burst into flames when they get emotional. The book is filled with laugh-out-loud moments but never leaves behind the human emotion you need to make a magical realistic story.

An Officer and a Gentlemen (1982)

Speaking of aimless twentysomethings and emotion, feel free to laugh, cry, and swoon through this melodrama in the ‘80s canon. Richard Gere meanders his way into the Navy when he has nowhere else to go, and he tries to survive basic training, work through his family issues, and figure out his future as he also falls in love with Debra Winger. So, yeah, it’s a schamltzier version of Top Gun, but it’s schmaltz at its finest. Crowd: 8.5/10 // Critic: 7.5/10

November Critic Picks

Double Feature – ‘40s Amensia Romances: Random Harvest (1942) + The Ghost and Mrs. Muir (1947)

Speaking of schmaltz at its finest, let me share a few more titles fitting that description. In Random Harvest (Crowd: 8/10 // Critic: 8.5/10), Greer Garson falls in love with a veteran who can’t remember his life before he left for war. In The Ghost and Mrs. Muir (Crowd: 8.5/10 // Critic: 8.5/10), Gene Tierney discovers a ghost played by a crotchety Rex Harrison in her new home. Mild spoiler: Both feature amnesiac plot developments, and while amnesia has become a cliché in the long history of romance films, Harvest is moving enough and Mr. Muir is charming enough that you won’t roll your eyes. You can see these and more romances complicated by forced forgetfulness in this Letterboxd round up.

The African Queen (1951)

It’s Humphrey Bogart and Katharine Hepburn directed by John Huston—I mean, I don’t feel like I need to explain why this is a winner. Bogart (in his Oscar-winning role) and Hepburn star in a two-hander script, dominating the screen time except for a select few scenes with supporting cast. The pair fight for survival while cruising on a small boat called The African Queen during World War I (in Africa, natch), and the two make this small story feel grand and epic. Crowd: 8.5/10 // Critic: 9/10

Kind Hearts and Coronets (1949)

A young man’s (Dennis Price) mother is disowned from their wealthy family because she marries for love. After her death, he seeks vengeance by killing all of the family members ahead of him in line to be the Duke D'Ascoyne. The twist? All of his victims are played by Sir Alec Guinness! Almost every character in this black comedy is a terrible person, so you won’t be too sorry to see them go—you can just enjoy the creative “accidents” he stages and stay in suspense on whether our “hero” gets his comeuppance. Crowd: 8/10 // Critic: 8.5/10

Bluebeard’s Eighth Wife (1937)

What would you do if you found out you were to be someone’s eighth wife? Well, it’s probably not what Claudette Colbert does in this screwball comedy that reminds me a bit of Love Crazy. This isn’t the first time I’ve recommended Colbert, Gary Cooper, or Ernst Lubitsch films, so it’s no surprise these stars and this director can make magic together in this hilarious battle of the wills. Crowd: 9/10 // Critic: 8.5/10

The Red Shoes (1948)

I love stories about the competition between your life and your art, and The Red Shoes makes that competition literal. Moira Shearer plays a ballerina who feels life is meaningless without dancing—then she falls in love. That’s an oversimplification of a rich character study and some of the most beautiful ballet on film, but I can’t do it justice in a short paragraph. Just watch (perhaps while you’re putting up your hot pink tinsel tree?) and soak in all the goodness. Crowd: 8/10 // Critic: 10/10

The Third Man (1949)

Everybody loves to talk about Citizen Kane, and with the release of Mank on Netflix, it’s newsworthy again. But don’t miss this other ‘40s team up of Joseph Cotten and Orson Welles. Cotten is a writer digging for the truth of his friend’s (Welles) death in a mysterious car accident. Eyewitness accounts differ on what happened, and who was the third man at the scene only one witness remembers? 71 years later, this movie is still tense, and this actor pairing is still electric. Crowd: 8.5/10 // Critic: 9/10

The Untouchables (1987)

At the end of October, we lost Sean Connery. I looked back on his career first by writing a remembrance for ZekeFilm and then by watching The Untouchables. (In a perfect world I would’ve reversed that order, but c’est la vie.) In my last selection from the ‘80s, Connery and Kevin Costner attempt to convict Robert De Niro’s Al Capone of anything that will stick and end his reign of crime in Chicago. Directed by Brian De Palma and set to an Ennio Morricone soundtrack, this film is both an exciting action flick and an artistic achievement that we literally discussed in one of my college film classes. Connery won his Oscar, and K. Cos is giving one of the best of his career, too. Crowd: 9/10 // Critic: 9.5/10

Remember the Night (1940)

Fred MacMurray and Barbara Stanwyck in my favorite team up yet! Double Indemnity may be the bona fide classic in the canon, but this Christmas story—with MacMurray as a district attorney prosecuting shoplifter Stanwyck— is a charmer. I’ve added it to my list of must-watch Christmas movies—watch for some holiday cheer and rom-com feels. Crowd: 8.5/10 // Critic: 8.5/10

Photo credits: chr paperie. Books my own. All others IMDb.com.

[littlestarfighters]

RISE | Anakin Skywalker & Kylo Ren

I made another video edit! I’m ridiculously proud of this one and I feel like it’s a huge step up from my first two (one of which I haven’t posted yet) so I really hope you guys like it! I felt like this song effectively depicted the attitude of defiance and indestructibility that led Anakin on his journey to becoming Vader and Kylo Ren back to Ben Solo.

Music: "Rise" by Katy Perry © 2016 WB Music Corp, Warner/Chappell Music Scandinavia, When I'm Rich You'll Be My Bitch, Wolf Cousins Footage: STAR WARS: Attack of the Clones (2002) STAR WARS: Revenge of the Sith (2005) STAR WARS: The Force Awakens (2015) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) STAR WARS: The Last Jedi (2017) Lucasfilm, the Lucasfilm logo, STAR WARS and all related characters, names and indicia are trademarks of & copyright © 2017 Lucasfilm Ltd. All rights reserved. Created in Adobe Premiere Pro CC 2018 & @ Adobe After Effects CC 2018. This is a fan-made music video. No copyright infringement is intended.

[dunnystuff]

Another Sunday Edition

Hi to all -

Job Losses

This is an odd one. With tens of thousands of employers begging for people to work, you might think this is a workers market. But, reality is that the number of people in the workforce is declining, at quite an astounding rate. Nationwide, the number of people who quit their jobs in the last couple of months totals nearly 3% of the workforce. If that continued for a year, we would really have a hard time getting anything done. My own state of Georgia was leading the pack in numbers of people quitting. A few other states, mostly in the southeast, are also high on that list.

Part of the reason is that unemployment pays better than many jobs, and does not involve actually having to get up and go to work. Another reason is the push to fire anyone who does not want the vax. That is about to seriously affect law enforcement, health care, transportation and other key industries. Of course, that is the real reason behind all this bullying. It is not about health care, but to destroy the economy so that a socialist government can replace our current system. Don't take my word for it, just listen to Biden and his team. They have clearly stated that the pandemic is a perfect excuse to 'redesign our economic system'. Which just happens to dovetail nicely with all those 'conspiracy theories' about The Great Reset and a New World Order.

Evergrande

This is the Chinese real estate company that was facing default just a couple of weeks ago. They are such a huge company that if they went into default, it might trigger a collapse of the Chinese economy.

Well, they just made their debt payment, and delayed this disaster for a short time. They owe about $300 billion, and the income from their properties is not enough to keep up payments. Do you see the irony here? This is a communist society. In theory, the state owns everything, and there is no such thing as debt, or capitalism. Yet, here is a massive company, desperately needing capital, to pay for its investments. Hello - is that not what capitalism is all about? Investors borrow money to create new enterprises, and if they make good choices, they get a good return on those investments and can pay their bills, and have a little left over to make other investments. Where is all that FREE STUFF that communism promised?

Well, Evergrande seems to have 'kicked the can down the road', a very capitalist idea, and hope they can stir up enough new business to recover. China is experiencing a 'housing bubble', much like the one that crashed our economy in 2008. One of the few things that citizens there can buy and own is real estate, so speculation is rampant, and people are buying up property as fast as they can. Let's see if China can avoid what happened here.

Putin

Even he has looked at our current culture and says it is ridiculous. Being 'woke', and using cancel culture to change speech and actions just does not work, and is harmful to the nation, he says. None of this matters to the left. Their religion does not allow them to be wrong, ever, about anything.

Netflix

Employees there worship at the altar of 'woke' also, and they are still very angry at Dave Chappelle for daring to suggest that gender is a physical reality. They held a big protest at the Netflix HQ, demanding that Dave be cancelled. Why, we just cannot allow anyone to question our ideas, lest we be forced to 'fact check' them, and see if they are actually correct, or even workable. Did you see that photo of employees standing around outside the building? Not sure if this was the Netflix crew, but it looked like a drag queen festival, heavy on the Gothic look.

Looks like our society may be headed for a divorce between the usual culture, and the 'woke' culture. 'Irreconcilable differences."

Migrants

The first wave of those 60,000 migrants, many from Haiti, made it to Mexico. Police tried to set up barriers to block their march, but the crowds were so large they bulldozed right past the police. This is not encouraging. It also shows that the mob is well organized, led and financed. Wouldn't it be interesting to see who is paying for all this? My guess is that it will include 'the usual suspects' who have been behind every riot and protest since Occupy.

Chris Wallace

He said that Jen Psaki is 'one of the best spokespersons ever'. People on the right were astounded. She is such a liar, and dances the Potomac Two Step like Fred Astaire. Never answers a question, just changes the subject. People on the left cheered - Jen really knows how to handle those rubes who dare disagree with Biden and team.

AOC

Looks like I confused a few people with an offhand remark about AOC. She came from nothing, literally, to being a very rich and powerful and influential person in the left DC crowd. When she was first elected, she was working as a bartender. Apathy was so bad in her district that she won - after having only 15,000 votes cast for her. That is not a lead over her opponents, that is the total number of votes. She talks like a teenager, 'like, I mean, you know...' She immediately hired her boyfriend to be a senior staffer, then denied it, and got caught. Yes, friends, she learned early on that 'there is gold in them thar districts' and helped herself to as much as she could stuff in her pockets. The Green New Deal, according to her own staff, never had anything to do with the environment, but was a ploy to gain political power. After all, what would she know about the climate? How many false prophets have said 'the end is near', only to be proven wrong? We are less than a decade away from AOC's own prophecy that the world would end in 12 years, unless we tax you to death first. And, yet, she has a massive following, and the whole democrat party joins her voice in proclaiming that only they can save the world, and only by crushing everyone else and taking all their money. Stay tuned, there may be a comet for them to ride coming our way.

Rich

[tlatollotl]

by Michael Coe (Yale University) and Stephen Houston (Brown University)

Forgeries have long been a scourge to archaeology and art history alike, rearing up whenever money mixes with “excessive desire and bad judgment” (Meyer 1973:103, see also Lapatin 2000:45). According to Ascanio Condivi, even Michelangelo got into the act by passing off one of his carvings as a valuable antiquity (Holroyd 1903:21–22). Yet fakes also serve as fascinating evidence in the history of crime, especially for that special con by which the cleverness of a forger matches wits with scholars.

Fakers may win for a time—think of the “Etruscan warriors” concocted by the brothers Pio and Alfonso Riccardi and later sold to the Metropolitan Museum of Art (von Bothmer and Noble 1961). But mostly they lose. No one can look today at van Meegeren’s banal paintings and think, as Hermann Göring did, that Vermeer had a hand in their making (Godley 1967). Scientific techniques play a role in separating fakes from genuine pieces, along with a systematic probing of provenience, outright confessions—proudly made in some cases (Beltracchi and Kunst)—and the mere fact that every generation draws on greater knowledge. Faking becomes harder and harder, and the myth, say, that a forger knows more than specialists in Maya art and writing is scarcely credible. The wise analyst must also ask the standard gumshoe questions: who was the victim, who the perpetrator, was there any intent to deceive, was harm done as a result (Chappell and Polk 2009:3, 16)?

There are, no doubt, works that continue to puzzle. The Getty Kouros, for example, is either a fake that deeply skews our understanding of Greek art or it is a revealing anomaly that shows our “imperfect understanding of what remains, and the limits of our perspectives, preconceptions, and comprehension” (Lapatin 2000:46). And then there are the stunningly terrible fakes that do not so much represent a “crisis of criteria” (Lapatin 2000:43), a tough decision to be made between competing claims, as obvious forgeries that would fool no scholar.

Think about Maya fakes. There are many of them (Eberl and Prager 2000; Eberl and Prem 2011), some published, to our amazement, in important traveling exhibits (Gallenkamp and Johnson 1985:pls. 62, 63, 69, 72, 74). A few have needed further research. Typically, the more challenging cases are colonial, with only a few purported signs or images of indigenous nature (Hanks 1992; Jones 1992). But, under hard scrutiny, they too eventually yield their secrets. As for “Pre-Columbian books,” the tell-tale indicator is whether they exist as a pastiche, a rough assortment of glyphs or pictures. Often in nonsensical order, and mostly lifted from well-known sources, the glyphs and images tumble out in combinations that are, to expert eyes, anachronistic, stylistically inconsistent or incoherent, and contrary to recent decipherments of Maya writing.

With Maya books, of which only four intact examples remain, there is no real “crisis of criteria.” Quite simply, the fakes are glaring, at times laughable: who would be fooled by them today? In truth, few scholars ever were. The first such studies were done by Frans Blom (1935a, 1935b; 1946) and by a sprinkling of others (Brainerd 1948; Wassén 1942).

The “codices” tend to have a number of attributes, including:

(1) recognizable day and month signs, sometimes interspersed with wishful squiggles intended to simulate glyphs (Figure 1; compare with Figure 3, below);

Figure 1. Comparison of faked codex with source image in Dresden 19a.

(2) a crudely polished leather base, with follicles clearly evident, or on what appears to be amate (fig-tree bark) or even coconut fiber (Figures 2, 3);

Figure 2. Faked leather codex and source image (K594, photograph copyright Justin Kerr, used with permission).

(3) little to no confidence of line, the “hand” being ill-practiced in calligraphy (Figure 3);

Figure 3. Unpracticed handling of paint, illegible signs and crude leather base.

(4) overbold and liberal use of polychromy (Figure 4; see also Figure 5, from the Peabody Museum at Yale University);

Figure 4. Bright polychromy: source image to right, “Pellicer Vase,” Museo Regional de Antropología Carlos Pellicer Cámara (photograph to right: Stephen Houston).

Figure 5. Garish polychromy on the Yale Peabody Museum Codex (photograph by Michael Coe); note also the copying from Dresden 56b.

(5) transparent copying from widely available sources, especially the Dresden Codex and sundry illustrations from general books.

A few of these examples will suffice. One smuggles in a poorly interpreted vulture from a page of the Dresden Codex (Figure 1). The hammock and courtly figures on the so-called “Pellicer vase” from the Museo Regional de Antropología Carlos Pellicer Cámara, Villahermosa, Tabasco, transfer neatly to another “codex” (Figure 4; vase published in Covarrubias 1957), and a Late Classic image of a mythic figure from a polychrome vase excavated at Uaxactun Guatemala finds an inept copy on yet another leather codex (Figure 6). Mixing periods–—the mural dates to the late 300s, early 400s—the faker also quoted freely from the well-published Ratinlixul Vase, excavated in 1917 by Robert Burkitt near Chamá, Guatemala, and now in the University of Pennsylvania Museum (UPM No. NA 11701, Danien 1997:38, Fig. 1).

What is abundantly evident is the sheer laziness or uninventive mentality of forgers. Sylvanus Morley’s The Ancient Maya (1946), first edition, was a particularly generous source for them, as it contained a handy list of Maya day glyphs (fig. 18), month signs (fig. 19), glyphs for time periods (fig. 22), Initial Series (fig. 25), and thorough coverage of the Maya calendar (pp. 265–295). The Ratinlixul Vase had its own line drawing too (pl. 88b). Of slightly earlier date was the useful, inexpensive, and widely available edition of Maya codices by the Villacortas in Guatemala (Villacorta and Villacorta 1933).

Figure 6. Copy of images from Uaxactun and the Ratinlixul vase on a forged leather codex (photograph to lower left, copyright Justin Kerr, used with permission).

A final example shows how blatant such copying can be (Figure 6). This codex lifts half of the center ballcourt marker from Copan Ballcourt BII (excavated by Gustav Strømsvik in the 1930s), as well as a frontal image from Palenque’s Temple of the Skull (upper left) and a smattering of full-figure glyphs from Copan Stela D (center left; see Stuart Temple of the Skull); Maudslay 1889–1902:pl. 48).

Figure 6. Fake codex and, at center, image taken from Copan Ballcourt II, center marker (drawing by John Montgomery).

A few of these documents are in institutions (American Museum of Natural History, no. 30–9530, in a gift of c. 1901–1904, from the Duc de Loubat [Glass 1975:204]; Peabody Museum, Yale University [No. 137880]; Världskulturmuseet, Göteborg [Glass 1975:305]), but most are only known to us by way of unsolicited communications or, for one manuscript, via a glossy facsimile published in Guatemala (Benítez 2005; said to be from Chichicastenango, Guatemala, it even has a supposed radiocarbon date of “BP 200 + 28,” which, by odd arithmetic, the author pushes back to “1650 A.D.” [Benítez 2005:4–5]). Most fakes had two episodes of preparation, beyond the painting itself. Immersion in dirt or (we suspect) cow patties provided the right patina, and then a hurried cleaning gave some visibility for the dupe being invited to purchase the book.

A striking element is that many share elaborate “origin” stories. As a random selection, these concern a now-deceased relative who had traveled in Mexico/Guatemala, etc., a stray find in a Maya town in Guatemala, caves, scuba-diving or, in an example seen by one of us (Houston) in Provo, Utah, an heir wishing to donate the manuscript to a worthy public institution. A few seem to have gone through the hands of the late Pablo Bush Romero, “Mexico’s distinguished diver, self-made scholar and restless millionaire-at-large” (Sports Illustrated 1964). The presence of others of far earlier date, as in that acquired by the Duc de Loubat, show multiple hands behind their manufacture: the temptation to fake such codices clearly had deep roots (Glass 1975:305–306; for the Duc, Loubat obituary). The Yale forgery is described on the museum website as: a “Maya codex purchased in Mexico City, 1905, from an old priest around the corner from the southeast corner of the Alameda. This codex was first shown in 1887; he then declined to sell it, but in 1905, having been so ill that both his legs were amputated, and not expecting to live longer, he offered to sell the codex (to a friend?) of his in Merida who was then a druggist. This codex was examined by Dr. Alfred Tozzer of Harvard University, who considered it a reproduction, partly because the…various day signs were not in the proper Maya order” (Yale codex).

At this point, one of us (Coe) has seen over a dozen such codices. All are supremely unconvincing to the trained eye. The inept painting, ignorance of Maya coloration, slavish (yet scrambled) copying of well-known sources, anachronisms, inattention to decipherments, improvised, ad hoc “signs,” rough preparation and obvious attempts at artificial aging—all characterize these examples, without exception. It is unthinkable that any in this corpus of pictorial failure would pass muster, technical analysis or glyphic and iconographic exegesis.

To understand what is not a fake, as in the Grolier Codex (Coe et al. 2015), we are well-advised to study what isa fake. This rogues’ gallery shows that compelling deceptions of ancient Maya books are easier to claim than to create.

References

Benítez, Henry. 2005. Códice Chugüilá (1650 d.C.). Guatemala: Editorial Piedra Santa.

Blom, Frans. 1935a. A Checklist of Falsified Maya Codices. Maya Research 2(3):251–252.

______. 1935b. The ‘Gomesta Manuscript’, A Falsification. Maya Research 2(3):233–248.

______. 1946. Forged Maya Codex. The Masterkey 20:18.

Brainerd, George W. 1948. Another Falsified Maya Codex. The Mastery 22:17–18.

Chappell, Duncan, and Kenneth Polk. 2009. Fakers and Forgers, Deception and Dishonesty: An Exploration of the Murky World of Art Fraud. Current Issues in Criminal Justice 20 (3):393–412 (pp. 1–20, online).

Coe, Michael, Stephen Houston, Mary Miller, and Karl Taube. 2015. The Fourth Maya Codex. In Maya Archaeology 3, eds., Charles Golden, Stephen Houston, and Joel Skidmore, 116–167.San Francisco,: Precolumbia Mesoweb Press.

Covarrubias, Miguel. 1957. Indian Art of Mexico and Central America. New York: Knopf.

Danien, Elin. 1997. The Ritual on the Ratinlixul Vase: Pots and Politics in Highland Guatemala. Expedition39(3):37–48. Danien 1997

Eberl Markus, and Christian Prager. 2000. A Fake Maya Bone. Mexicon 22(1):5.

Eberl, Markus, and Hanns Prem. 2011. Identifying a Forged Maya Manuscript in UNESCO’s World Digital Library. Ancient Mesoamerica 22(1):155–166.

Gallenkamp, Charles, and Regina E. Johnson. 1985. Maya: Treasures of Ancient Civilization. New York: Harry N. Abrams.

Glass, John B. 1975. A Catalog of Falsified Middle American Pictorial Manuscripts. In Handbook of Middle American Indians, Volume 14: Guide to Ethnohistorical Sources, Part 3, ed. Howard F. Cline (assoc. eds., Charles Gibson and H. B. Nicholson), 297–310. Austin: University of Texas Press.

Godley, John R. 1967. Van Meegeren: A Case History. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons.

Hanks William F. 1992. The Language of the Canek Manuscript. Ancient Mesoamerica 3:269–279.

Holroyd, Charles. 1903. Michael Angelo Buonarroti. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons.

Jones, Grant D. 1992. The Canek Manuscript in Ethnohistorical Perspective. Ancient Mesoamerica 3:243–268.

Lapatin, Kenneth D. S. 2000. Proof? The Case of the Getty Kouros. Source: Notes in the History of Art20(1):43–53.

Maudslay, Alfred P. 1889–1902. Biologia Centrali-Americana, or, Contributions to the Knowledge of the Fauna and Flora of Mexico and Central America, vols. 55–9, Archaeology. London: R. H. Porter and Dulau.

Meyer, Karl E. 1973. The Plundered Past: Traffic in Art Treasures. New York: Athenaeum.

Morley, Sylvanus G. 1946. The Ancient Maya. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Villacorta, J. Antonio C., and Carlos A. Villacorta. 1933. Códices Mayas: Dresdensis— Peresianus—Tro-Cortesianus. Guatemala: Tipografía Nacional.

Von Bothmer, Dietrich, and Joseph V. Noble. 1961. An Inquiry into the Forgery of the Etruscan Terracota Warriors in the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Metropolitan Museum of Art, Papers 11. New York.

Wassén, S. Henry. 1942. A Forged Maya Codex on Parchment: A Warning. Etnologiska Studier 1213:293–304.

[yasbxxgie]

If any year were fitting to reissue Prince’s pivotal record Sign o’ the Times, it’d be 2020, a year marked by a pandemic, protests for racial justice, the rapidly developing climate crisis, and a consequential election in the U.S. But the Prince Estate didn’t plan any of this, of course. “Sign o’ the Times was the one that organically raised its hand because of the sheer amount of love that it has, first of all, and second of all, the volume of ancillary material that we thought would be able to support it in a meaningful way,” says Michael Howe, Prince’s archivist who worked on assembling the reissue. “The serendipitous element of it is that we’re living in such a volatile time at the moment, such an unpredictable time, that the issues Prince was exploring on the album seem to be just as relevant today.”

It’s a fitting testament to Prince’s continued relevance as a musician over four years after his death. So is the fact that the reissue of Sign o’ the Times, out September 25, features a bounty of new material, the most for a Prince reissue yet. The superdeluxe edition includes 45 never-released tracks, along with two full live performances (from Utrecht, Netherlands, and Paisley Park, the latter including a guest appearance by trumpeter Miles Davis). It’s only two-thirds of the material they considered, says Howe, adding that he still makes weekly discoveries in Prince’s mythical vault. One of his favorite songs on the reissue is a 1979 cut of “I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.” “Nobody knew it existed,” he says. “It’s kind of astonishing to think that he had that song in his pocket the entire time and decided to wait and reimagine it for inclusion on Sign o’ the Times.” As for the release as a whole, Howe only wants it to strengthen the intentions that were already in Prince’s music. “I hope it brings people joy and that it has the same kind of emotional resonance that I think Prince viewed as most important in his art,” he says. “And the other thing I hope is that people see how wildly creative the guy was and how he was able to do pretty much anything he wanted to.”

The superdeluxe edition also includes a book with a stacked cast of liner notes, including Dave Chappelle, Lenny Kravitz, Prince’s engineer Susan Rogers, Prince | Official Podcast host Andrea Swensson, and author Duane Tudahl. For Chappelle’s contribution, the comedian reflects on his friendship with Prince along with the social relevance of Sign o’ the Times. Read an exclusive excerpt from Chappelle’s liner notes below, in conversation with photographer Mathieu Bitton.

***

Do you remember where you were when you first heard Sign o’ the Times? It was a spring day in 1987. I was listening to Casey Kasem on a local Dayton, Ohio, radio station. I remember being struck by the way Kasem introduced the song. He actually read the lyrics before he played the record. That really impressed me. When would you ever hear a DJ read lyrics on a Top 40 countdown? The words were profound.

In France, a skinny man died of a big disease with a little name By chance his girlfriend came across a needle and soon she did the same At home there are 17-year-old boys and their idea of fun Is being in a gang called the Disciples High on crack and totin’ a machine gun

I didn’t realize it at the time, but in hindsight, he was singing about what would be the two definitive crises of my generation: crack and AIDS. Our story was being told in hip-hop [Hip-Hop], but as a genre, it was still in its infancy. Prince was the first mainstream artist to wax poetic and tell our community’s story, establishing himself as one of the preeminent lyricists for my generation.

He literally was a sign of the times.

I found a radio interview recording on YouTube where Prince was asked about your skit, and this is what he said: “I loved it, loved it! That’s a true story, by the way,” to which the DJ asked, “So you got game?” He responded, “Oh definitely! And he [Murphy] don’t! And 2 be honest, it ain’t that I’m that great, he’s just so bad.” He continued: “U know what was cool 2 was Dave came to one of my shows after, and he’s going, ‘Hey, did you see the skit?’ and I say, ‘Yeah, yeah, come over and sit down.’ And we’re just sitting, chillin’, we’ve been there for like 2-3 hours or whatever, and then out of nowhere I said, ‘Dave, want some pancakes?’”

[Laughter]

When I left Chappelle’s Show, not only was Prince the only person I could relate to, he was one of the few people who truly cared about what was happening in my life.

There’s a thing I say that “the last sane man on earth is going to think he’s crazy.” He was the only one I knew who had already done it. In the loneliest corners of that experience, there was always a sign, like “Brooks was here,” that he had been there and lived to tell about it.

The mere sight of Prince reminded me that I’m not the last sane man on earth, and I’m not crazy.

He was the first person I knew who didn’t question my choices. In fact, he didn’t even ask me about them. He just told me, “Whatever it is, you’re right.”

He helped me understand that it might not be over and that there might be another side to it … and whether or not there is or isn’t, at least you’re free. Or, as he would say, “U gotta B free.”

[prairiechzhead]

Poldark S3 US Ep 5/UK Ep 6

Let’s see if my opinions from this post by @poldarkpodcast​ still hold up. 

First, a disclaimer. I rewatch the DVD I have and then I write most of this post. Then I watch the PBS broadcast to reconcile the full UK episode I’ve been watching and their edited for time US broadcast, because there is always the chance that something I referenced in my original post was edited out of the US broadcast. 

More answers than you can shake a toad at after the jump. 

What did you think of this week’s episode? 

For me, it was so-so. I didn’t hate it, but I wasn’t left ugly-crying like I was after last week’s episode.

The previous episode was full of action and feels and all the things. This one was not as exciting. But that’s not a bad thing because this episode both signals a wind down from Black Moon story lines and a shift into the Four Swans story arcs. 

Your favourite scene? Why? Basically any scene where Aunt Agatha threw shade at George. Also I loved the discussion between Dwight and Caroline at the end of the show. I think it captured both how each was feeling (in regards to Dwight’s PTSD) and showed that understanding each other is the key to dealing with this. When someone has a mental illness, the family has to deal with it, too, and more often than not, there isn’t much support for them.

I’ve been binge-listening to an older version of the audio book for Black Moon. (Basically, someone ripped it from a CD.) When the narrator is doing Aunt Agatha’s voice, he makes her sound like Gollum, especially when she’s talking about planning her birthday party. This has nothing to do with the scenes in the show, or which ones I like. It’s an observation I wish to share. 

One of my favorite scenes though, is a very short one with Agatha and George, where George is looking at Valentine in his cradle and Agatha makes a remark about being bullied and why George was bullied as a child. It wasn’t that he was poor, but it was because he was trying to deny his humble roots. She mentioned Valentine’s having rickets. 

Another one was that brief moment when Agatha gave Whitworth the stink eye towards the end of the episode. 

Least favourite scene? Why? Ossie’s toe sucking scene. If I were to ever consider toe sucking as a kink, this scene basically ruined it for me. That image of his porcine, red face with someone else’s toes in his mouth and then making the same sounds I do whenever I eat tiramisu will forever be seared on my brain. I can never “unknow” that this exists on film.

Three months later and its still gross. 

Shockingly, PBS left the toe sucking scene (or most of it) in the episode. They did edit out most of Ossie’s orgasm noises, though. 

It’s just as disgusting as it was the first time. See? 

I’m not into kink-shaming. But this never, ever makes me want to participate in this kink, either giving or receiving ever. Is it possible to gouge out your mind’s eye? 

Favourite new character? Why?

There were no new characters in this episode, but my favorite character was Aunt Agatha and her sassiness.

Her excitement over planning her 100th birthday party is one of the joys of this episode. 

Least favourite new character? Why?

George and his stupid, over-the-top, “Ross is behind every bad thing that ever happens to me” paranoia. If “When George blames Ross for something that goes wrong in George’s life” is not already part of the Poldark Drinking Game, it should be. I can handle that he does things to hurt others if it means personal gain for him. I’m tired of how the writers are having his main motivation always be trying to one-up Ross, rather than stay with his main motivation being his insecurity as it is in the novels.

My thoughts on this haven’t changed and I addressed it last week. As over the top as it is, it’s building to something in the season finale. At the time I wrote this, I did not know it. 

What made you cheer?

Zacky’s promotion to mine captain. While I am sure that there is no one in Cornwall who wishes that it had to happen because Henshawe died, I’m also sure that everyone will agree that Zacky earned it.

This time, I’m going to cheer over the fact that PBS edited out most of Ossie’s orgasm noises when he was sucking on that prostitute’s toes. 

For what it’s worth, PBS cut out Zacky’s promotion scene. Not happy about that. 

What made you want to throw things at the television/computer screen?

George blackmailing Morwenna into marrying Reverend Toesucker to keep Drake from the noose. Then having Drake find out about this the way he did. I know it’s for Drama™, but to me, it seemed way too over-the-top. The only thing that was missing was a mustache for George to twirl as he gloated over this.

This plot point was changed from the novel. Winston Graham likes to spring things on the reader and the characters, but in an understated way. One example is in the book Demelza with Julia’s death. We (the reader) don’t learn she died until Demelza’s fever broke. She asks to see Julia and Ross tells her that Julia was asleep or something like that. Then Ross wonders how he should break the news to Demelza that their daughter died. It was the same with Morwenna’s marriage. 

Novel Spoilers:

The wedding was held while Drake was in France, but neither Drake, Ross, nor the readers learned of this until after they returned. Then we learn the details. The engagement between Whitworth and Morwenna was never technically broken and she was not coerced into marrying Ossie as a condition of Drake’s release. Basically, George and Elizabeth lied to her about sending her home and releasing Ossie from the engagement. Elizabeth came to Morwenna on a Sunday and basically told her that the Whitworths were coming to Trenwith and there would be a wedding whether she liked it or not. Morwenna was misled and forced into marriage with this man, because George had dropped the charges against Drake. Because of the times and the circumstances, Morwenna was trapped. 

The audio book narrator in the version I’m listening to who is doing Elizabeth’s voice makes Elizabeth sound especially creepy in this section. 

So to a reader of the novels, the way they handled this would seem over the top. However, given how it was handled in the novels, the “I’ll let Drake go if you marry Ossie” ploy is actually less icky and makes Elizabeth and George look like way better people than how they looked in the books. It also makes Morwenna look like she’s making a sacrifice for her true love rather than be forced into a marriage to a horrible man because it’s the 18th century and she has no say in it at all. 

Most of Caroline’s reaction to Dwight’s PTSD, but particularly the line “why are you being so girly” was cut. People had taken exception with this originally last summer, because she was “insensitive”. Her reaction to his PTSD is correct for that time and place. You cannot expect someone in the 18th century to know how to react based upon the knowledge we have in the 21st century. There is no way she could know how she is supposed to react. 

Another “throw things” moment is the toad storyline. In the novels, it was a prank. On the show, it’s way too over the top. They gave George a phobia that seems to be the result of being bullied, so it’s not quite as funny as it was intended. 

In the novels, George did do some impressive mental gymnastics to try and pin the toad prank on Ross, though.

What was your performance of the week?

Caroline Blakiston as Aunt Agatha. She gave us the perfect blend of sassy shade-throwing, serious advice giving when it was needed, and sheer joy when she talked of her party.

I also would say that Elise Chappel deserves a nod for her portrayal of Morwenna in this episode. I do feel her pain. 

So to both ladies...

Any other observations you wish to share with us!

We’re over halfway through the season now. At this point, I think season 3 is okay. However, the more I watch it, the more I pick up on things I may have missed the first few times I watched, and my opinion on it will change. Because of so many new characters and story lines, it may have been better in retrospect, if they’d done only Black Moon for season 3. Then perhaps they could have taken the time to tell the story properly and without it feeling choppy at times and rushed.

I still think they should have only done Black Moon for all of Season 3. Then there would have been enough time to give to those storylines. By doing this, Four Swans, which is basically where this episode falls (with a few storylines not yet finished from Black Moon thrown in), would be all of Season 4. Then we would be guaranteed a Season 5, which would be Angry Tide, and then they could end the entire show with Angry Tide. 

They used the same exact footage of Ross riding into the gates of Trenwith and dismounting from his horse twice in this episode. First, when he visited Agatha and second, when he went to see George over Drake’s arrest for theft. 

Something I’ve wondered about the PBS broadcast:

How come Darlene Shiley always gets to personally tell us how much she loves drama and Masterpiece, but Conrad Prebys and Debbie Turner don’t? Why? 

Next Time: Oh this episode will be a doozy. It has been 3 months since it aired in the UK and I still haven’t been able to rewatch this. 

[release-info]

Going by India’s past record in one-day internationals and in the World Cup, they were not expected to even progress beyond the Group stage of the 1983 Cricket World Cup which was yet again held in England, despite having the likes of Sunil Gavaskar, Krishnamachari Srikkanth, Dilip Vengsarkar, Yashpal Sharma and Sandeep Patil in batting and a decent set of all-rounders in captain Kapil Dev, who was now one of the best all-rounders in world cricket, Mohinder Amarnath, Madan Lal, Ravi Shastri and Roger Binny. This time, the tournament format was slightly different from the previous editions. Teams were still divided among 2 groups of 4, but now each team in a group played each other twice. India were placed in Group B in the Group stage, which was considered to be the tougher of the 2 groups as it included 2 stronger opponents in the defending champions, the West Indies, whose dominance in world cricket at the time was at its peak, and Australia. World Cup debutants Zimbabwe were also in the group. The fact that the West Indies and Australia were in India’s group only worsened India’s prospects of putting a decent showing this time around. India’s first match in the tournament was against the West Indies at Old Trafford in Manchester. The West Indians were expected to steamroll India, but India caused a massive upset, winning the game by 34 runs in a match spread over 2 days. Middle-order batsman Sharma withstood the West Indian pace attack to score a fine half-century (89 from 120 balls, 9 fours) as India scored 262/8. Then, a disciplined performance from the Indian bowlers led by all-rounders Binny (3/48) and Shastri (3/26) ensured that the West Indian batsmen could not settle down after their starts, as a result of which the West Indies were bowled all out for 228. India followed this victory with another win against Zimbabwe at Leicester. In a one-sided match, India, bowling first, restricted Zimbabwe to 155 with Madan Lal taking 3/27, following which a half-century by Patil (50 from 54 balls, 7 fours, 1 six) ensured that India chased down the paltry total easily. However, despite the good start, 2 consecutive defeats against Australia at Trent Bridge in Nottingham and the West Indies at The Oval in London followed, and with other results going Australia’s and the West Indies’ way, India were once again staring at another early exit from the World Cup. Trevor Chappell scored 110 to ensure that Australia scored a mammoth 320/9, with India dishing out a listless bowling performance. Only Kapil bowled well, taking a 5-wicket haul (5/43). Australian medium-pacer Ken MacLeay took 6/39 as India were bowled all out for just 150, losing by 162 runs, with none of the Indian batsmen contributing. Against the West Indies, India, chasing 283 to win, never really got going despite Amarnath’s patient knock (80 from 139 balls). A combined effort from the West Indian pace attack saw India crash to 216 all out, losing by 66 runs. To add to India’s woes, Vengsarkar was ruled out for the rest of the tournament after a Malcolm Marshall bouncer injured his jaw. To reach the semifinals now, India had to beat Zimbabwe and Australia by huge margins, a daunting prospect. Should India lose even one of the matches, they would be knocked out of the tournament. India began their match against Zimbabwe at Tunbridge Wells on 18 June 1983 disastrously. The Zimbabwean bowling attack, led by Peter Rawson (3/47) and Kevin Curran (3/65), destroyed the Indian top order, reducing them to 17/5. A massive upset by the Zimbabweans and another early exit for India was now very much on the cards, until Kapil arrived. Kapil completely changed the course of the match with a breathtaking innings (175 not out from 138 balls, 16 fours, 6 sixes). With the support of the tailenders, he ransacked the Zimbabwean bowling as he played his most famous innings, which was also the highest individual score in ODI cricket at the time and the first ever ODI century scored by an Indian batsman. As a result of his astounding knock, India finished the innings at 266/8. Then, a good performance with the ball from Madan Lal (3/42) saw Zimbabwe being bowled all out for 235, despite Curran’s 73, to set up a famous win. Unfortunately, this match was not telecasted live due to a strike by the BBC staff on that day. But India’s woes weren’t over yet; they needed to beat Australia comprehensively to have any hope of reaching the semifinals. India’s must-win match against the Aussies took place at Chelmsford, two days after the famous victory against Zimbabwe. Despite Rodney Hogg (3/40) and Jeff Thomson (3/51) taking 3 wickets each, a combined effort from the Indian batsmen saw India reach 247 all out. Australia, chasing 248 to win, were rocked by the innocuous but penetrative medium-pace of Madan Lal (4/20) and Binny (4/29) and crashed to 129 all out, losing the match by a whopping 118 runs. With another win under their belt, India finished second in their group and qualified for the semifinals for the first time ever in the Cricket World Cup. India’s semifinal match was against hosts England at Manchester. Despite England being the favourites, India produced yet another upset. England won the toss and batted first. Despite an opening stand of 69, the English batsmen mistimed many balls and used the bat’s edge frequently, as the restrictive Indian bowling led England to 213 all out. English opener Graeme Fowler top scored with 33. Kapil Dev was the pick of the Indian bowlers (3/35), with Amarnath (2/27) and Binny (2/43) also being among the wickets. In reply, Sharma (61 from 115 balls, 3 fours, 2 sixes) and Sandeep Patil (51 not out from 32 balls, 8 fours) made half-centuries, with Amarnath (46 from 92 balls, 4 fours, 1 six) too contributing, as India reached their target comfortably, winning by 6 wickets in a classic victory over the hosts. Amarnath picked up the Man of the Match award for his all-round performance. This win brought India to the World Cup final for the very first time, which was to be played against the West Indies on 25 June 1983 at Lord’s in London. A third consecutive tournament victory for the West Indies was widely predicted by most pundits and fans. In the final, India lost the toss and were made to bat first on a seaming wicket against the mighty West Indian pace attack. Only Srikkanth (38 from 57 balls, 7 fours and 1 six) and Amarnath (26 from 80 balls, 3 fours) put up any significant resistance as the West Indian fast bowling attack comprising Marshall (2/24), Andy Roberts (3/32), Joel Garner (1/24) and Michael Holding (2/26) ripped through the Indian batting, ably supported by part-timer Larry Gomes (2/49). Only surprising resistance by the tail allowed India to reach 183 all out in the 55th over. It seemed to be all over for India, as the West Indies had a power-packed batting line-up comprising openers Gordon Greenidge and Desmond Haynes, followed by Vivian Richards and captain Clive Lloyd which was capable of destroying any bowling attack and were widely expected to make mincemeat out of the “mediocre” Indian bowling attack. Despite the early loss of Greenidge, Haynes and Richards steadied the innings and the West Indies was soon cruising to another World Cup win at 57/2. At this stage, Kapil ran a great distance (18-20 yards) to take the wicket of Richards off Madan Lal’s bowling. This proved to be the turning point of the match, as the Indian bowling then exploited the weather and pitch conditions perfectly to blow away the rest of the West Indian batting. Amarnath (3/12) and Madan Lal (3/31) took three wickets each, as the West Indies crashed to 140 all out in the 53rd over, setting up a famous tournament victory for India which was one of the biggest upsets not only in cricket, but in sport in general. India’s win ended the title defence of the West Indies, who never reached the final of the Cricket World Cup again. Amarnath was awarded a second consecutive Man of the Match award for another all-round effort. http://bit.ly/2Xe0W6x

[silkfood8-blog]

Desus & Mero Were the Late Night Kings of the TV Season

It's 2019 and broadcast late-night hosts are still wearing suits. Not even Goldman Sachs wears suits anymore! Meanwhile, on Desus & Mero, Desus Nice and The Kid Mero's kicks game is so fresh that there's an Instagram account dedicated to chronicling the sneakers they show off. And now that they're working with a premium cable budget at Showtime, their sneakers have gotten increasingly rare and expensive. All those Jimmys and Jameses on those dinosaur shows wish they were half as relevant.

The Showtime incarnation of Desus & Mero is the most fully realized version of the Bodega Boys' vision yet. Before this, they were doing four nights a week on Viceland, no writers, just the two of them sitting in a conference room at Vice headquarters riffing on the news of the day. Now they have a full staff (shoutout to Josh Gondelman) and a studio that echoes the set of Chappelle's Show, their spiritual predecessor. They've come a long way from when they were just two dudes from the Bronx with regular degular day jobs whose hilarious tweets got them a podcast at Complex. They had zero Hollywood connections until about five years ago. They were just guys on the internet. But they were so smart and so funny that they couldn't be denied. Sometimes America actually is a meritocracy. The glow-up is real, the brand is strong.

Photo: Showtime

If Desus & Mero Viceland edition built their legend through YouTube clips of Daniel Baker and Joel Martinez's off-the-dome brilliance, Desus & Mero Showtime edition solidifies it. It definitively proves that their New York City-centric sense of humor translates broadly (though even native New Yorkers may have to Google some of the references they make). It gives them a showcase to display their sketch chops (Mero is a master of impressions). And it buys Showtime credibility as the cable network with its ear to the streets. Millennials don't want to watch Stephen Colbert do another monologue about how Trump is bad, they want to watch Lil Nas X's first TV performance of "Old Town Road!" So where do you think the hottest new rapper in the game went?

TV Yearbook: Let's Celebrate the TV Season's Best Moments

The duo is so funny that they can go on other late night shows and upstage the host. They recently made the Tonight Show go viral by making a joke about Taylor Swift that was so fuego that they got death threats from Swifties. Trevor Noah can't even make his own show go viral.

And they're just getting started. Desus & Mero has only been on since February, and it's gotten better every week since then as The Jouvert Boss and The Plantain Supernova get more comfortable with their new surroundings. Desus and Mero are only going to get more necessary, too. Kevin Durant is gonna come on and promise to lead the New York Knicks to an NBA title. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will return to announce her 2024 presidential run on the show. The Bronx will secede from New York City and Desus and Mero will be the mayors along with Cardi B and CC Sabathia. It's already happening. The brand is unstoppable.

(Disclosure: TV Guide is owned by CBS Interactive, a division of CBS Corporation)

Source: https://www.tvguide.com/news/desus-mero-late-night-kings-tv-yearbook/?rss=breakingnews

[ryanjdonovan]

Donovan's Oscar Prognostication 2019

The legendary, recently departed screenwriter William Goldman famously said, "Nobody knows anything." Then again, he never read my Oscar predictions. My first bold forecast: Alfonso Cuarón will win something. For more excruciatingly safe predictions, behold my 20th annual Oscar predictions.

(Oh my god, I just realized I've spent 20 years of my life doing this crap.)

BEST PICTURE:

SHOULD WIN: The Favourite WILL WIN: Roma GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: A Quiet Place

Unthinkable only a few months ago, a foreign language film is going to win Best Picture for the first time ever. By now it seems pretty clear, with all the other awards doled out, that the Best Picture winner will be Roma, produced (and directed, and written, and filmed, and edited) by Alfonso Cuarón. It's also the rare black-and-white film that will take the big prize. I love the film and the look of it; the style gives the film a texture of a different era, yet an overall feel of timelessness. (I suppose you could also argue that it's a bit of a cheat: It's much easier - and cheaper - to achieve the period look of the 1970s and pass off common objects as "old" with black-and-white.) I'll get into other reasons I champion the film later; Cuarón is unquestionably my choice for Best Director. But I can't help but feel that Cuarón's name and reputation are the main reasons it's getting such a push for Best Picture. If it had been made by some other no-name filmmaker, charming as it may be, would it have ever made it beyond the indie festival circuit? I'm guessing probably not.

For crying out loud, why are people getting so worked up and emotionally invested (and literally crying out loud) about A Star Is Born? It's like audiences suddenly lost their abilities to think rationally just because the main characters can sing. This falls into a subgenre of movies that I like to call 'Idiots Making Bad Decisions'. The film should have been called A Star Is Blind To A Whole Bunch Of Red Flags. So… Lady Gaga meets Bradley Cooper while he's a drunken mess, is somehow charmed by his sloppy stupor, falls in love with him without ever actually seeing him sober, is an active enabler of his alcoholism… and her ONLY boundary is that she won't get on a motorcycle with him?? What about the other 99% of the time when she's idly watching his boozed-up, destructive behavior? "Sure, that's fine. Hey, let's go sing a pretty ballad in front of 50,000 people without rehearsing!" The only person in the movie who actually says something about it is her manager - and somehow he gets labeled as the sleazebag. Are you kidding me? He's the only one with any goddam common sense! He is the only person who tells Cooper's character anything remotely resembling the truth - not his bandmates, not his brother, not his limo driver, not even his best friend. If you ask me, the manager isn't the villain, he's the hero of the movie! So does the film have a chance of winning? Well, it went from strong front-runner to also-ran in the span of about three weeks. But it boasts eight nominations, a boffo box office, and loads more attention than Roma. However, the fact that Cooper didn't get a Best Director nod would seem to torpedo its chances (unless he gets a ton of sympathy votes for Best Picture, à la Argo and Ben Affleck a few years ago.) It has an outside chance, but don't bet on it. (I will say, I love seeing Dave Chappelle pop up in the movie, but man, they don't give him anything to do! "Hey Dave, here's the part: You show up out of the blue, give a half-hearted pep talk, be an accomplice in a really bad decision, and then disappear for the rest of the film. Whaddaya say?" Here's a Kickstarter I would donate to: ANOTHER remake of A Star Is Born, which would actually be a sequel, starring Chappelle and Andrew Dice Clay.)

A lot of experts think Green Book has the best chance of upsetting Roma here, but I don't see it. I actually think Black Panther has a better shot at an upset, based on its momentum as a global phenomenon, seven Oscar nominations, and the Best Cast victory at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Both films are hurt by a lack of Best Director nomination; Black Panther theoretically faces even long odds without a Screenplay nomination (a few films have won Picture without a nomination for Director, or without a nomination for Screenplay; no film has ever won Picture without either of them).

BlackkKlansman will also get a share of votes, as Spike Lee got some of the best reviews of his career. (It doesn't hurt to have Jordan Peele with his Midas touch as a producer.) I think it lives up to the hype, but I have no idea why it seemed to be marketed as a comedy. It's certainly funny in the sense that the story itself - an African American cop in the 1970s infiltrates the Ku Klux Klan (based on real events) - is utterly audacious. While it has satirical elements, it's not exactly chock-full of yuk-yuk jokes. (I suppose any chance at comedy went out the window once sour-puss Adam Driver was cast.)

Vice would seem to have a shot here, checking all the requisite boxes: eight total nominations, nods for directing and writing, high pedigree across the board, rapturous reviews for the actors, and a hot-button story about American government during recent events. But ultimately the film is too divisive to have a real shot at Best Picture; most people that want to reward the film will put their votes toward Christian Bale in the Best Actor category.

Despite its international appeal, audience raves, triumphant spirit, and jaw-dropping box office, Bohemian Rhapsody is not a factor in this race. Most critics would tell you it wouldn't make for an above-average VH1 Behind The Music episode, much less a worthy Oscar nominee. Rami Malek was dazzling as Freddie Mercury, but I can't help but wonder what the film would have been like with its original star, Sacha Baron Cohen. Galileo! Galileo! Galileo! Galileo! Galileo, Figaro, verynice!

The Best Picture race is fine and all, but I was more intrigued by the announced-and-then-immediately-revoked Popular Film award. Not to see who would get nominated or who would win, but to see what the heck they would actually name the category. Best Popular Film? Most Popular Film? Popularest Film? Most Populous Film? Outstanding Achievement in Popularity? The Popularity Contest? #favepopflick? Film Most Unlike Those Other Crappy Unpopular Films? Film Most Likely To Get All The Hollywood Chrises To Attend The Ceremony? I'm guessing they would have gone with the obvious: Film Most Likely To Boost Television Ratings.

BEST ACTOR:

SHOULD WIN: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) WILL WIN: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Ryan Gosling (First Man) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: John David Washington (BlackkKlansman)

Remember not long ago, when A Star Is Born was going to sweep every single Oscar? Bradley Cooper was going to win his first acting Oscar in his fourth try, along with an armful of statuettes for other categories. It was a foregone conclusion only a couple months ago; but for Cooper, it probably feels like years. In the ensuing weeks he (and the film) have been passed over in just about every major competition. Now it seems like his Oscar night will look a lot like his character's Grammy night in the movie - not much to do except watch Lady Gaga accept an award for music. (And if he's also embarrassingly drunk, it could make for an excellent telecast.) Across acting, producing, directing, singing, and writing, this was the one nomination I think Cooper really deserved… and I hate myself for it. I'll (begrudgingly) admit, he was very good in American Sniper, and this performance towers over that one. If Cooper wins, I may not be happy about it, but I'll understand. But, he won't win. (Which is good, because empathy is not my strong suit.)

While Cooper was still on top, riding the wave of his emotionally-manipulative movie to box office gold and glittering reviews, Green Book snuck onto the scene. People were charmed by the movie and by star Viggo Mortensen, and realized it was one of the best performances of his career… and they started thinking, hey, maybe Cooper isn't such a foregone conclusion after all. By the end of the festival circuit, Mortenson was a legitimate contender. I, for one, think he's outstanding in the film. He's hammy, but he makes it work, and he's surprisingly convincing. That said, there's a small part of me that can't help but think that other actors out there could have played the role just as convincingly. (This could have been Matt LeBlanc's shot at an Oscar, damn you!)

Willem Dafoe also popped up during festival season, for his role as Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity's Gate. He mostly remained under the radar, but he always loomed as a threat. Didn't I just say last year that he only gets nominated once every 15 years? Well, this makes it two years in a row now. I guess that means we'll have to wait another 30 years for his next nomination.

Lo and behold, once people got a glimpse of Christian Bale, all doughy menace and jowly growling as Dick Cheney in Vice, he quickly eclipsed Cooper and Mortensen. (Mortensen didn't exactly do himself any favors with a critical publicity gaffe; I won't make the mistake of repeating it here.) As the bigger awards started rolling out, Bale was the one who couldn't lose. But then, when it really mattered, he DID start losing.

So what happened? Well, people made cases for each nominee to win: Cooper brings a rock star convincingly to life; Mortensen enthralls with charismatic bravado and a funny accent; Dafoe devastates as a tortured artist; Bale transforms completely and brings new depth to a real-life famous person. And as the major awards were finally handed out (Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs), voters realized, Let's vote for the guy who does ALL those things: Rami Malek, transformed as the rocking, charismatic, funny-accented, tortured, real-life musician Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. And that is how Malek came to win the Oscar.

It's not an easy choice, but I'm also rooting for Malek. More than any of the other roles, I think Malek's portrayal will be considered iconic in the long term, thanks in no small part to the global popularity of the film and the general happy vibes that people associate with the performance and the music. I mean, what's more fun, an outlandish, world-famous, glam rock star, or a stodgy former Vice President who didn't produce a documentary about global warming?

Dafoe's nomination makes me wonder: What if this was the Year of the Overdue? In theory, all of the following people in the major categories could win and end their career droughts: Willem Dafoe for Actor (4 nominations, the first in 1987), Glenn Close for Actress (7 nominations, the first in 1983), Sam Elliott for Supporting Actor (a career spanning 50+ years), Amy Adams for Supporting Actress (6 nominations), Spike Lee for Directing or Adapted Screenplay (5 nominations, the first in 1990), Paul Schrader for Original Screenplay (writer of some of the most revered films of all time). It would be nice, but for most, the suffering will continue.

It's a tough call for my Snubbed choice. I'm tempted to go with Ethan Hawke, for his pastor caught in an existential crisis in First Reformed. In spite of Oscar nominations for previous movies, THIS is the best role of his life. This is literally the first time I've seen him in a movie (including Training Day and Boyhood) and NOT immediately thought, "This character looks and sounds and acts just like Ethan Hawke." It's easily his most fully-formed, immersive role. Ordinarily, I would say he deserves a nomination, but he got two previous ones that he didn't deserve, so the hell with him. Instead, I'm naming John David Washington (whose father starred with Hawke in Training Day) for the mesmerizing lead in BlackkKlansman. It's a tightrope-walk performance that proves the newcomer can carry a film and is here to stay. The fact that he didn't get a nom for the film, but Adam Driver did, is a head-scratcher that future historians will puzzle over for eternity.

On the other hand, my Gloriously Omitted choice was an easy one: Ryan Gosling in First Man. Aren't we all just a little tired of Gosling? Don't we think he's overdue for a comeuppance? No? Just me? Okay.

BEST ACTRESS:

SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman (The Favourite) WILL WIN: Glenn Close (The Wife) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Natalie Portman (Annihilation)

Glenn Close emerged as the first real Best Actress contender, when The Wife debuted in August. But she was always considered a dark horse, and as flashier performances bowed, they quickly passed Close on the pundit's lists. But much like the woman herself in her expansive career (and the character she plays in the movie), she hung in there, until the patina of the competition dulled. And now here she is, running the table at all the award ceremonies, unquestionably the front-runner, a heavy favorite to win the Oscar after six previous nominations. Her performance in The Wife feels in many ways like the culmination of all the characters she's played, employing subtlety with a skill honed over several decades. In a film brimming with dramatic conflict, her character seems to be playing chess, always two moves ahead of her opponents. To mix metaphors (and to steal from her real-life opponent Lady Gaga), she's always got a poker face - but she's not giving you a blank wall, she's giving you exactly the look that she wants you to see. She never just smiles. She never just frowns. Or laughs. Or sulks. Or scowls. There's always a twist, twinkle, or curl. It's all measured, calculated. She's superior to the other characters, and she knows it. Sometimes she lets her opponent win, or sometimes she opts not to play; but she always chooses exactly how much they believe they get away with.

That stands in stark contrast to one-time presumptive front-runner Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born. Where Close relies on introspection, Gaga seems to be fueled by pure passion and raw energy. Her performance has been called a tour de force, and I agree, it is. She's in your face, and she's powerful. And it feels authentic, thanks to parallels and inspirations from her real life. (If only her father in real life was Andrew Dice Clay.) Does her character make the best life choices? No. But who needs common sense when you've got pipes like that? When A Star Is Born burst onto the scene, everybody was pretty quick to anoint Gaga as the Oscar winner. But now that the fervor has died down a bit (and gullible moviegoers have finally stopped crying, ugh), critics are siding with Close's measured performance over Gaga's unbridled one. But those early prognosticators weren't wrong, Gaga will win an Oscar… for Best Song.

All that said, I actually think the award should go to Olivia Colman for The Favourite - which feels weird, because I believe she shouldn't even be nominated in this category. Determination of "Leading" versus "Supporting" has always been puzzling (it's a function of marketing, gamesmanship, coin flip, lunar phase, and how drunk the voters are), but I'm confident Colman's role is the supporting one here. (As the characters whose decisions drive the course of the story, both Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone - classified in the Supporting category - clearly play roles that are more "leading" than Colman's.) I can't help root for Colman's performance, which stands out from the pack as the most visceral, unhinged, playful, and downright fun. (Especially when I see her in interviews and get the sense that she's just as nutty in real life.) But most importantly, through it all, her portrayal is endearingly pathetic. She's like a terrified little girl, trapped in prisons of every imaginable kind (emotional, mental, physiological, metaphorical, governmental, physical, familial) except a literal one. So she acts like a terrified little girl: tempestuous, confused, irrational, looking for the slightest comfort anywhere. And we can't help but root for her when she finds something (or someone, or some part of someone's anatomy) that alleviates her feeling of being trapped… even when we know it's fleeting.

Hooray for Melissa McCarthy. Besides being one of the most likable actors out there, she seems to have no limit (or filter) on her range of comedic abilities, and she continues to impress with dramatic talents, like the ones on display in Can You Ever Forgive Me? She gave us a glimpse of those talents a few years ago (in St. Vincent, where she gave a fantastic performance in a decidedly less-than-fantastic movie), and steps up her game considerably here. She taps into a more serious, down-to-earth energy that comes through as completely authentic. In her unisex mop-top and shapeless outfits, do I buy her as a curmudgeonly woman who is a gifted writer, forges celebrity letters for a living, and has no idea that her apartment reeks of cat poop? Absolutely. What can't McCarthy do? She's done comedy, drama, sci-fi, biopic, action, mystery, adventure, romance, thriller, animation, puppets… Let's see if she can do mime!

Yalitza Aparicio was a pleasant and unexpected inclusion here, for her role in Roma. She wasn't a complete long-shot, but after getting passed over for a lot of other award nominations, it seemed likely that some other veteran actress would probably take the last spot. I'm glad the Academy made the right choice. She's not just the most important part of the movie, she IS the movie. If she's not perfect, even with all of Alfonso Cuarón's revered storytelling, direction, cinematography, and editing, the movie simply wouldn't work. Everything about her performance is subtle and natural. (Call her the anti-Olivia Colman.) And remarkably, this is her first acting job; then again, it's probably why her performance is so organic. Which is not to say that it's effortless, or that she isn't really acting. Just look at the lengthy delivery scene at the hospital - it's grueling, and if you don't feel what she's feeling, you're not human. And perhaps most impressively of all, she somehow managed to keep a straight face during the penis-pole-martial-arts scene. (If you haven't seen it, don't ask.)

Emily Blunt was expected to receive a nomination for Mary Poppins Returns, but was passed over. The lesson here? Don't f*** with Julie Andrews. (Audrey Hepburn learned that lesson 54 years ago.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali (Green Book) WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali (Green Book) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Ben Mendelsohn (Ready Player One) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Tim Blake Nelson (The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs)

This category would appear to be a showdown between the two previous Supporting Actor winners: Mahershala Ali (two years ago for Moonlight) and Sam Rockwell (last year for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Each won for their first career nomination; the others in this category have never even been nominated before. Does that mean one of them will get it; or will voters hesitate to have someone go two-for-two, and instead opt to spread the gold around and give it someone else?

I probably don't have to tell you, Ali will win his second trophy for his work in Green Book. He's got a lot in his favor: his role, arguably a leading one, is the largest of any in this category; he plays a magnetic character who stands with dignity in the face of adversity and bigotry; his film is a feel-good story that the audience naturally cheers for; and of course, he's one of the best actors working today. (And don’t forget the "True Detective Effect": the result of playing a critically acclaimed role on that show during an Oscar campaign. Another strong performance to remind voters that you are, in fact, talented beyond a single role is often a boon… just as a poorly-timed stinker can be a bust. Hey, it won Matthew McConaughey an Oscar, didn't it? Somewhere Colin Farrell is thinking, "Wait, what the hell??") Ali is captivating as a popular, highly-educated, genteel pianist traveling on tour through the South in the early 1960s -- a lonely man on the road who's isolated as a result of external factors and his own choices. While I'm rooting for Ali, I can't help but feel like his role leaves me… wanting. Despite the fact that his character's decisions largely drive Green Book's narrative, his arc is pretty minor (compared to Viggo Mortensen's), and he's (intentionally) a bit of a closed book. I might actually prefer a movie that centers on his character, so we could dig at elements that aren't really explored beyond the surface. The film spotlights the fact that the character doesn't feel like he belongs to ANY world at all (profession, culture, education, race, social preferences, or class). Yet he really only has one scene that brings his dilemma to the surface. And the only attempted explanation of his motives is awkwardly offered up by a minor character in a heavy Russian accent. So much more of his character remains unearthed. (My emails to DreamWorks pitching 'Green Book II: Autobahn Adventure' have gone unanswered.)

So, no, Rockwell will not pull off back-to-back wins for his role as President George W. Bush in Vice. Not only is Rockwell a poor choice for the Oscar, he was a poor choice for the role, period. I mean, how was Will Farrell NOT cast as W? I mean, the film was directed by his buddy, Adam McKay. And McKay produced Ferrell's Emmy-nominated Bush-skewering special, You're Welcome America. And the movie is essentially a long Saturday Night Live sketch anyway. I'm pretty sure there's a perfect alternate universe where Ferrell wins an Oscar for playing Bush and the world is spared from the catastrophe of Holmes & Watson.

Ali's strongest competition will come from Richard E. Grant, playing a kind of bon-vivant hobo in Can You Ever Forgive Me? It's funny, I never thought much of Grant until this film. When I saw him in previous films and shows (and if you look at his list of credits, that's damn near everything), I found him relatively forgettable. In fact, for several years, I thought he was the guy that played Data on Star Trek: The Next Generation. (Sorry, Brent Spiner.) Now, before the rabid fans of Withnail & I tear my head off, let me say that I'm changing my tune. He truly impresses as Melissa McCarthy's con-man confidant, an ascot-wearing street scamp who's been on the fringe so long that he can't really distinguish his marks from his friends. He's a gutter-dweller with the airs of an aristocrat and the aims of freeloader, who makes his identity (and his living) by defying definition. And as the best supporting characters do, he believes he's the star of his own movie.

Also in this race is Sam Exposition, I mean Sam Elliott, who pops up in A Star Is Born for the sole purpose of conveniently explaining Bradley Cooper's backstory to the audience. As soon as you start thinking, 'Gee, I wonder why Cooper's character has such a chip on his shoulder?', Elliott shows up to have a somewhat awkward chat about his demons. 'What on earth in Cooper's past could have possibly made him the way he is? Oh, here's Sam. I hope he has an inorganic and emotional conversation with Cooper about their childhood!' That said, I love the guy, and it's nice to see Elliott play something more than a parody of himself. In the hands of a lesser actor, the device would be much more transparent, but he handles it with grace and grit… all the way to an Oscar nomination.

I need someone to explain Adam Driver's nomination to me. On second thought, I need someone to explain Adam Driver to me, period. (Sam Exposition, you would come in really handy right about now.) In BlackkKlansman, he has one scene with fleeting poignancy; the rest of the time, he's just sort of… there. It feels like the dopey boyfriend from Girls just kinda wanders into the movie. I general, I think Spike Lee has a sharp eye for casting, so I kept waiting for Driver to bring something unique to the role, but it never happened. Literally anybody else in the role would have as good or better. I think of it in baseball terms: his Wins Above Replacement Player would have been exactly 0.0. (And of course, I spent the whole movie thinking, "He just CAN'T be Han Solo's son. He just CAN'T.")

There are plenty of other actors I would have preferred to see get nominated in place of Driver (and that's not even including Tim The Chalet or whatever the kid's name is.) Tim Blake Nelson is a hoot as a singin', strummin', sharp-shootin' outlaw in the otherwise dismissible The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs. Jonathan Pryce plays refreshingly against type as a bold, confident, selfish (and somewhat misunderstood) jerk in The Wife. Cedric Antonio Kyles (aka The Entertainer) is nearly unrecognizable as a serious and influential reverend in First Reformed. (Despite doing nothing to change his appearance, I had no idea it was him until long after I had seen the film.) And Jimmy O. Yang, one of the best parts of Silicon Valley, would have been an amazing Oscar nominee for stealing scenes as 'the a-hole you shouldn't have invited to the party' in Crazy Rich Asians. One guy I'm glad DIDN'T take Driver's nomination: Ben Mendelsohn in Ready Player One - fantastic actor, terrible part, laughable performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

SHOULD WIN: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) WILL WIN: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Gina Rodriguez (Annihilation)

Oh boy, the Screen Actors Guild Awards really threw a wrench into this one. They rewarded the ONE actress who isn't nominated (Emily Blunt, for A Quiet Place), and didn't even nominate the Oscar front-runner, Regina King, for If Beale Street Could Talk. And since the only reason the SAG Awards exist is to help ME make my Oscar predictions, they were totally worthless. So what does this mean? King is still a lock to win the Oscar, right? Not so fast. Usually I would tell you to ignore the BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Academy Awards). But get this: The only real parallel to this situation is from 2015, when Sylvester Stallone was a heavy favorite to win the Oscar, but was completely snubbed by the SAGs (who crowned Idris Elba, who was not an Oscar nominee). And nobody worried when Stallone was also shut out from the BAFTAs ("They only pick Brits", pundits sniffed); he remained the popular Oscar pick. But then in a stunning upset, he lost the Oscar to Mark Rylance, who had won… you got it, the BAFTA. So who won this year's BAFTA, where Regina King was also shut out? Rachel Weisz, for The Favourite.

Following me? Great. So Weisz will win the Oscar, right? Not so fast. Like I said, I don't put a whole lot of stock in the BAFTAs when it comes to Oscar forecasting. I mean, Hugh Grant got a BAFTA nom last year for Paddington 2, which didn't exactly clean up at the Oscars. (And yes, they tend to pick Brits.) Weisz's BAFTA win was a bit of a make-up, after they denied her years ago for The Constant Gardener. She already has an Oscar (for, as you'd expect, The Constant Gardener), so voters won't be quick to hand her a second one (in only her second nomination, no less). And while Weisz had the home field (pitch?) advantage at the BAFTAs against castmate Emma Stone, you can count on Academy members who are fans of The Favourite splitting the votes between them. Others who can't decide among them will simply vote for someone else entirely. On the other hand, King, while not a big star internationally, has been a critical darling stateside. With a career of acclaimed work, several Golden Globe nominations, and three recent Emmy awards, she seems ripe for an Oscar win. And I mean, come on, she played Brenda on 227! Adorable little Brenda! But then again… this category is historically notorious for out-of-left-field upsets. Stone seems to charm every critic with a keyboard, certainly has an effect on Oscar voters (winning just a couple years ago for La La Land), and has earned plenty of glowing reviews for The Favourite. Or there's Marina de Tavira, the least-known of the bunch, for playing the tortured matriarch in Roma. Though I think her nomination is a reach, Roma could steamroll every category; besides, who would make a more shocking winner than the woman who was a shocking nominee?

With me? Okay, so de Tavira will win? No! Stone? No! Have you even been paying attention?! Why on earth would you ignore Amy Adams? With her role as Lynne Cheney in Vice, she should absolutely be the front-runner, having scored six nominations but never able to quite clutch the gold. Just about everyone agrees she's overdue. And what could be a more fitting way to win, in this politically-polarized world, than for a politically-polarizing movie?

Still following me? Didn't think so. Let's start over. Regina King will win the Oscar for If Beale Street Could Talk. Was that so hard?

King's win will make me happy. But I think I'm actually going confuse you again and name Weisz as my personal choice. If I had an ACTUAL vote, I might hesitate, because she's already got an Oscar and I would be more likely to reward a body of work. But in The Favourite in particular, which happens to be my favourite film overall, Weisz is fantastic and utterly magnetic. She's a fabulous insult machine with compassion for the only person she truly loves: herself. And when dueling against Olivia Colman and Stone and chewing scenery by the yard, she's a total blast. (Please don't dismiss me as always picking Brits.)

BEST DIRECTOR:

SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)

Alfonso Cuarón has won all the Directing awards this year. All of them. Nobody else is really in the conversation. The only intriguing thing about this category is what it will mean when Cuarón wins for Roma: He'll be the first director to win for a foreign language film. He'll be the fifth Mexican in six years to claim this award. Assuming he also wins Best Cinematography (he took up the camera himself, instead of teaming up with frequent partner and 3-time Oscar winner Emmanuel 'Chivo' Lubezki due to scheduling conflicts), he'll be the first person to win both categories in the same year. In fact, he'll be the only person to win the Cinematography award for a film they also directed. And if he wins Best Original Screenplay and sweeps his categories, he'll become the first person to win four Oscars for a single film; he'll tie Walt Disney for the only people to win four Oscars in one night (which he did in 1953, for four different films, three of which were shorts). And that's not even counting Best Foreign Language Film! Inexplicably, that award officially goes to the country, not the filmmaker - though you can bet Cuarón will be the one accepting the award (and in fact, his name will be engraved on the statuette). Had he managed to get a nomination for Best Editing, he'd pretty much be breaking every individual Oscar record there is.

Cuarón is getting the well-deserved raves for his uncommon technique on this film, eschewing traditional music and scenes (eg, cutting between masters / two-shots / close-ups) in favor of ambient sound and lingering wide shots. The result is voyeuristically effective: It feels like you're in the corner of the room or across the street, peeking in on the family and its environment. Personally, it resonates with me because I love black-and-white still photography, and it strikes me as a series of painstakingly composed photos. It's funny, it's what they teach you NOT to do in film school! You could almost call it lazy - it looks like what a lot of amateurs tend to do: stick the camera in one place without moving it and filming all the action in one shot. But for the story, it works; it somehow feels more immediate and immersive. He further deviates from tradition by incorporating unusual, incongruent sights and sounds, typically at the end of the scene. It seems like the intent is to give the viewer more of a sense of how the character feels in the moment, not necessarily to portray literal events (for example, the cacophonous marching band that randomly comes down the street and envelops the mother after her husband leaves her and the family). The effect is unnerving, but supports the specificity and overall "slightly faded memory" aesthetic of the film. Ultimately, the film combines elements that at face value seem unnatural, but come together to create a whole, without dramatic close-ups or perfectly-timed music cues; as a result, it feels more like real life than a movie.

Other directors deserve some recognition this year, too. I thoroughly enjoyed Yorgos Lanthimos's work on The Favourite. His trademark dry, acerbic wit and humor do wonders for this potentially dreary period piece, and frankly, they're right up my alley. (When you hear only one person laugh at an unusual moment in a crowded movie theater, it's probably me.) Where Cuarón strives for a stylized naturalness, Lanthimos wants nothing more than to remind you that you're watching a movie - specifically, his movie, filmed with his inimitable visual "voice". Lest you forget, the not-so-subtle fish-eye shots are there to remind you. It doesn't work for everyone, but it works for me. (Bonus: Believe it or not, he's not the only person named Yorgos that's nominated for an Oscar for this film - Yorgos "No, the Other One" Mavropsaridis is up for Best Editing).

And of course there's Spike Lee, nominated for BlackkKlansman. It's hard to believe that Lee hasn't been nominated for anything since Original Screenplay for Do The Right Thing in 1990 (his honorary Oscar in 2016 and his Best Documentary nomination from 1998 notwithstanding). Until now, he was arguably the most influential director working today without a Best Director nomination. He'll get a lot of votes here, but most people will save them for a different category. (Spoiler: He will win for Adapted Screenplay.)

Pawel Pawlikowski's nomination for Cold War is interesting for reasons beyond the film itself, alongside Cuarón's Roma. With Cold War in Polish and Roma in Spanish, it's only the third time that there have been two directors of non-English language films nominated in the same year. And it's the first time that the category includes two films that are also nominated for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. Of course, if Pawlikowski wins, he would become the first Best Director winner of a foreign language film (instead of Cuarón). On top of that, both films are in black and white; having two Director nominees in the same year is unheard of since color pictures took over decades ago. It actually wasn't so long ago that a black and white film won in this category (The Artist in 2012), but before that, you have to go back to Schindler's List in 1994, then to The Apartment in 1961.

Considering his films have historically gotten more attention from the MTV Movie Awards than the Oscars, Adam McKay is probably as surprised as anyone by all the prestige-award attention he has gotten for directing Vice. (He can primarily thank Christian Bale and Amy Adams for that.) He has a small, fervent fan base in the Academy, but it won't be enough to give him any serious momentum here.

Just a few short months ago, everyone thought someone was going to win four Oscars… not Cuarón, but rather Bradley Cooper. At the very least, he seemed a shoo-in to get four nominations for A Star Is Born. If he had, he would have joined Warren Beatty as the only two people in history to be nominated in all of the Big 4 categories: Picture, Acting, Directing, and Screenplay. (Beatty did it twice, and ultimately won one award, for directing Reds.) But Cooper was shut out in the Best Director category, which came as a shock to everyone, except one person. I'm guessing it was an extremely tight race, and it would not surprise me if he was literally one vote short because he was left off the ballot by… Warren Beatty. (I have a theory, which has yet to be disproven, that in his retirement, Beatty is really bored and just likes messing up the Oscar results. I posit that he's actually becoming Bulworth.)

While my Snubbed choice here is John Krasinski for A Quiet Place, the person I really wanted to see get a Best Director nom was Orson Welles. That's right, 33 years after his death, 78 years after Citizen Kane, Welles was actually eligible for an Oscar nomination, for his recently completed film The Other Side Of The Wind. I'm confident that had he won, a god-like voice would have boomed down from the heavens and shouted a one-word acceptance speech: "Rosebud!"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

SHOULD WIN: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (The Favourite) WILL WIN: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (The Favourite) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Drew Goddard (Bad Times At The El Royale) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods (A Quiet Place)

Determining the favorite in this category is a bit of process of elimination. Right off the bat, you can toss out Paul Schrader's clergyman think-piece, First Reformed, which is the most challenging and interpretive of the bunch. The nomination itself was a bit of a coup, and it's somehow, inexplicably, the 72-year-old filmmaker's first ever Oscar nomination. Other classic films that he wrote (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, The Last Temptation Of Christ, Affliction) got noms and wins for others, but not for him. (Gee, his infamous Lindsay Lohan erotic thriller The Canyons was passed over by the Academy, too. Shocking.) This film, which he also directed, about a pastor at a crossroads, is probably his most personal film to date. If you've ever seen (or even heard of) any of Schrader's other films, you can probably guess that the story takes a dark turn (or 20) and doesn’t exactly end with rainbows. Though I was fully invested in the film and ultimately liked it, it lost me at a couple critical junctures where developments on screen don't feel fully earned. He intentionally tries to rattle the viewer (almost literally), using a technique that's been explained to me in terms of "Transcendental Style" (a phrase coined by Schrader, I think, but not a filmmaking style created by him) - which I don't fully understand, nor do I necessarily buy. And, of course, it comes with an ending that's up to interpretation. Does it represent redemptive love or destructive despair? Or both? Or neither? You can try to draw your own conclusion, but I suspect Schrader would tell you you're wrong no matter what… and he would use amazingly poetic dialogue while doing it.

Next, you can probably scratch off Vice, written by Adam McKay. He very recently won a Screenplay Oscar, for The Big Short, which was generally considered a sharper film. So nobody's exactly itching to give him another one. But more importantly, just as many people hate this film as love it - hey, you write a polarizing script, you get polarized responses.

Here's where it gets tricky… This is probably the category that Alfonso Cuarón is least likely to win, if for no other reason than Roma's achievements in the other categories seem more obvious than in the understated screenplay. Far from resembling a traditional script, he describes it like this: "I wasn’t concerned about narrative, I was concerned about memory. I was concerned about spaces, textures, and trusting that all of that together would interweave a narrative by itself… a cinematic narrative." Look for the Academy to reward a different film here, which won't win Picture or Director. (And you can be sure that future filmmakers will invoke Cuarón's term "cinematic narrative" when trying to pass off a lazy, meandering script as genius.) Also, points off for the movie not featuring Ricky Roma (Al Pacino's character from Glengarry Glen Ross) - seems like a missed opportunity.

So that will likely leave Green Book and The Favourite, the two Best Picture bridesmaids, to try to catch the bouquet here. They're both essentially fun movies; they both take a lighter approach to subjects that are typically treated with a heavy hand. With Green Book, Peter Farrelly's path to the Oscars was not unlike McKay's: Writer/director of silly low-brow comedies and creator of a lucrative 'brand' of humor gains critical praise when taking on a headier story based on historical events, demonstrating depth, wit, and drama. Green Book seemed to have the early edge, claiming Screenplay and Picture (Comedy) prizes at the Golden Globes along with a Writers Guild nomination. (Farrelly also made the film without his brother Bobby, a first, due to Bobby's family issues. If Green Book wins an Oscar, do you think that will come up at Thanksgiving?) But Farrelly's exclusion from (and The Favourite's surprise inclusion in) the Best Director Oscar category is telling. The Academy seems to be leaning away from Green Book. Both Green Book and The Favourite have been chided for historical inaccuracies; then again, they're not documentaries, and are ultimately more accurate than I would have believed. As screenplay categories often do, the Academy will reward the script that strives to be unique and feels brand new. While Green Book often falls back on convention (which is probably the right choice given the tightrope of subject matter and tone that it has to walk), The Favourite says to bloody hell with everything you've seen and know about British chamber pieces and serves up something that feels fresh, contemporary, and pioneering. In the end, the favorite here is… The Favourite.

The Favourite is also my personal favorite (though not by a lot). The Favourite and Green Book are both thoroughly enjoyable, but such different films. Green Book is angel food cake, The Favourite is devil's food cake. And be honest, if you could only have one, which would it be? The Favourite is a devious delight, a delicious game of one-upmanship for the trust and affections of a queen who cares more about her pet rabbits than settling Parliamentary disputes and ending wars. (The reason she does is just one of the fantastic elements of the script.) In order to draw us into its regal chess game, writers Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara surely knew that sticking to concrete facts would defeat the purpose of the film, so they didn't even try, and instead leaned into their liberties. Tawdry tales, illicit affairs, model good looks, vulgar language, and royal hysterics… can any of it be true? Who cares, when it's so much duplicitous fun?

The clear snub this year was A Quiet Place, written by Scott Beck, John Krasinski, and Bryan Woods. In fact, the entire Krasinski family got shut out this year: John for writing/directing/producing/acting in A Quiet Place, and his wife Emily Blunt for acting in Mary Poppins and A Quiet Place - all of which got plenty of attention from other awards bodies. (And let it be known that their kids didn't do anything particularly Oscar-worthy either, in my opinion.) I really thought A Quiet Place would get a screenplay nomination, for one of the most original story ideas of the year (but don't tell that to the writers of Bird Box).

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

SHOULD WIN: Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott (BlackkKlansman) WILL WIN: Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott (BlackkKlansman) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Ernest Cline, Zak Penn (Ready Player One) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Alex Garland (Annihilation)

It's a pretty safe bet that Spike Lee will get his Oscar here, for BlackkKlansman. In my opinion, it's his best film of the decade, and probably his best film since Inside Man. With Picture and Director pretty much locked up by Alfonso Cuarón, voters will pile up their support for Lee in this category. Ultimately, voters are going to ask themselves, why SHOULDN'T I vote for Spike? Well, there are plenty of reasons why they probably WON'T vote for the other nominees…

A Star Is Born (written by Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, and Eric Roth) would only stand a chance here if it was going to sweep all the categories, and I'm here to tell you, it won't. Is it sad when the only thing in the story that resonates with me is when Cooper's character complains about guys that don't wear socks? I nearly yelled out in the theater, "Right on, Coop!" Besides that, I spent so much time getting hung up on things that don't make any sense in the movie that I didn't get much else out of it. I could rant about any number of elements, but… man, I'm killed by the guys in Cooper's band (presumably called The Passive Diffidents). During the nonstop chaos driven by booze, irrational decisions, and petty arguments, all they ever do is stand around, without saying a word, and exchange dopey glances. Cooper keeps making drastic, last-minute changes to their live shows, going so far as to impulsively promote some random groupie as the #2 member of the band. Do they ever say, "Hey man, not to be rude or anything, but I don't know the chords to that song you just made up 10 seconds ago"? Nope. They literally have no dialogue in the movie. The only responses they can muster are sheepishly flashing semi-surprised looks, before dutifully playing their instruments. Nice to see an Oscar-nominated script with such strong characters.

Most of the hype around Can You Ever Forgive Me? has been for Melissa McCarthy, so victories in other categories are unlikely. Which is a bit of a shame - Richard E. Grant was particularly strong, and a nod for director Marielle Heller would have been a welcome surprise for handling such an odd but uncinematic story with a deft hand. While it won't get enough votes to win, it's nice to see the Screenplay nomination for Nicole Holofcener (along with Jeff Whitty); after nearly three decades on the indie film scene and behind acclaimed television shows, Holofcener is getting her due (for one of her few scripts that she didn't direct herself, as it happens). And she surprised prognosticators when this screenplay beat out BlackkKlansman for the Writers Guild Award, so that actually opens the door a crack for a shot at the Oscar.

Barry Jenkins just won a screenwriting award a couple years ago, for Moonlight, so If Beale Street Could Talk would need to be a strong Academy darling for it to claim this award. But it wasn't loved enough to get nominations for Best Picture or Best Director, so it's very improbable here. Voters will likely pour their love for the movie into Regina King's Best Supporting Actress bid.

With The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs, is it possible that the Coen Brothers got nominated for 1/5 of a movie script? Well, voters aren't going to give an Oscar for a fraction of a script, especially when the Coens have a few of these awards, for better films. They're not going to get one for a movie most of movie-going America has never heard of.

Ready Player One should have been soooooo good: exceptional book, solid casting, ample budget, 80s nostalgia, and Steven Freaking Spielberg! And the author of the book, Ernest Cline, also wrote the screenplay (along with the talented Zak Penn), which is typically a good sign - he's not going to butcher his own book… right? But somehow, the movie and the script come off as incredibly cartoonish, instead of capturing the cerebral marvel of virtual reality conjured by the book. (It probably doesn't help that Spielberg eliminated about half of the possible 1980s references by keeping out elements from his own films.) In short, the movie seems like it's trying to please every possible audience member, while the book feels like it was written directly for me. A perfect example of an aspect that comes off as generic instead of specific is the music. Contrast that with the music from my snubbed choice (and a far better cinematic experience), Alex Garland's Annihilation. Ready Player One opens with the crowd-pleaser "Panama", by Van Halen. And Annihilation features Crosby Stills and Nash's "Helplessly Hoping", a dreamy ditty from the late 60s that most viewers have never heard. I'll take Van Halen (hell yeah!) any day over CSN (snooze), but the use of "Panama" in Ready Player One is lazy and uninspired; it just feels like someone said, "What's a cool guitar-heavy 80s song that we could run over the opening credits?", without any regard for how it would complement the story. The moment is forgotten immediately. On the other hand, "Helplessly Hoping" was clearly chosen passionately and painstakingly for Annihilation. It augments the scenes in the film so well that it feels like it was actually written for the movie itself; the effect is haunting, stays with the viewer after the movie is over, and even contains additional subtext that is revealed upon repeat viewings. The difference between the films is night and day: a movie about virtual reality that feels disappointingly remote, and a movie about an unknowable phenomenon that feels refreshingly immersive.