#xochitl lujan

[udggear]

Fun vacation GEAR by @xochitllujan

[rosieposiepie]

11/7 Election Update In New Mexico!

Xochitl Torres Small beat projected winner Yvette Herrell in the second congressional district in New Mexico (Herrell had even given a victory speech - awkward)! Herrell had been announced as the winner last night but Xochitl refused to concede, and it’s good she did because she won with absentee ballots by 3,000 votes! I’ve lived in District 2 for fifteen years, and this is the first time it’s been blue since 2008 (but that only lasted for 2 years, and it was red for 30 years before that)!

This means that NEW MEXICO is the first state in the United States to be represented ENTIRELY by people of color in the House of Representatives! (You’ve probably heard of Deb Haaland (D), one of two of the first native congresswomen, who also won in NM yesterday. The other representative is incumbent Ben Ray Lujan (D).) 

I know the 2018 election had some losses, but from a local perspective, I am really pleased! I helped campaign for Xochitl, and I was heartbroken to hear last night she lost - but she didn’t!

[gen-is-gone]

Governor-elect Michelle Lujan Grisham

Congresswoman-elect Deb Haaland

Congresswoman-elect Xochitl Torres Small

Congressman Ben Ray Luján

Senator Tom Udall

Senator Martin Heinrich

Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller

all fucking Democrats. Go New Mexico

[the-delegate-fight]

New Mexico: June 2

Overview 34 Delegates (0.85% of total) Closed Primary 7 At-Large 4 PLEO At-Large 23 by CD Early Voting: May 5-30 Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats may participate in the primary.  The voter registration deadline is May 2.  17-year-olds who turn 18 by November 3 may participate in the primary. New Mexico has early voting starting on May 5 and ending on May 30; the number of locations expands starting May 16. New Mexico allows no-excuse absentee voting beginning no later than May 11. Ballot Access The filing deadline is March 16. Details Groups of 7 and 4 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 7 for CDs 1,3; 5 for CD 2. Superdelegates Warren (1): Rep. Deb Haaland Uncommitted (10): Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Sen. Martin Heinrich, Sen. Tom Udall, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, Rep. Ben Ray Luján, Fred Harris, Marg Elliston, Marcus Porter, Joni Marie Gutierrez, Raymond Sanchez Useful Links The Green Papers NM Delegate Selection Plan (draft)

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Democratic Sen. Tom Udall is not seeking re-election in 2020, making him the first Democratic senator to retire since 2016. For Democrats, Udall’s exit means they’ll have to defend what likely would have been a safe seat. Republicans have few targets on the 2020 Senate map, and New Mexico could mark one of their few take-over opportunities. Still it won’t be easy for them to win — New Mexico is not quite solidly blue, but it’s also not quite purple either. It’s the type of state a Republican could win, but they would need multiple things to go their way.

First of all, Democrats are favored to hold the seat. Election handicappers at the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still view the New Mexico contest as “Likely Democratic” while Inside Elections gave it a “Solid Democratic” rating. The Land of Enchantment is 7 percentage points more Democratic than the nation as a whole,1 making it the 14th-most Democratic-leaning state in the country.

New Mexico is blue, but it could prove competitive in 2020

Senators up for re-election in 2020 and their states’ partisan leans*

Incumbent NAME Party State Partisan Lean Ed Markey D Massachusetts D+29.4 Jack Reed D Rhode Island D+25.7 Chris Coons D Delaware D+13.6 Cory Booker D New Jersey D+13.3 Dick Durbin D Illinois D+13.0 Jeff Merkley D Oregon D+8.7 — D New Mexico D+7.2 Susan Collins R Maine D+4.9 Tina Smith D Minnesota D+2.1 Cory Gardner R Colorado D+1.5 Gary Peters D Michigan D+1.3 Mark Warner D Virginia D+0.1 Jeanne Shaheen D New Hampshire R+1.7 Thom Tillis R North Carolina R+5.1 Joni Ernst R Iowa R+5.8 Martha McSally R Arizona† R+9.3 David Perdue R Georgia R+11.8 Dan Sullivan R Alaska R+14.9 Cindy Hyde-Smith R Mississippi R+15.4 John Cornyn R Texas R+16.9 Lindsey Graham R South Carolina R+17.2 Bill Cassidy R Louisiana R+17.3 Steve Daines R Montana R+17.7 — R Kansas R+23.3 Mitch McConnell R Kentucky R+23.3 Ben Sasse R Nebraska R+24.0 Tom Cotton R Arkansas R+24.4 Doug Jones D Alabama R+26.8 — R Tennessee R+28.1 Shelley Moore Capito R West Virginia R+30.5 Mike Rounds R South Dakota R+30.6 James Inhofe R Oklahoma R+33.9 James Risch R Idaho R+34.9 Michael Enzi R Wyoming R+47.4

* Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state or district voted and how the country voted overall, where 2016 presidential election results are weighted 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results are weighted 25 percent, and results from elections for the state legislature are weighted 25 percent.

† Special election

Sources: U.S. Senate, The New York Times

Second, whomever New Mexico Democrats put up to replace Udall will likely benefit from running in a presidential year, thanks to the rise of straight-ticket voting. In 2016, for instance, all 34 states with a Senate race backed the same party for both the president and the Senate. And New Mexico has voted Democratic in six of the past seven presidential elections. George W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to win the state, carrying it by less than 1 point in 2004. In 2016, President Trump lost it by 8 points, so there’s a good chance the eventual Democratic nominee will be favored there.

Third, Democrats have a potentially deep bench of candidates to pull from. They currently control all three House seats in New Mexico, so it’s possible that Reps. Deb Haaland, Ben Ray Lujan and Xochitl Torres Small could turn their eyes to the Senate. The Washington Post named all three as “potential successors,” but the representatives did not respond to FiveThirtyEight’s request for comment. Another possible candidate that both the Washington Post and Politico named was state Attorney General Hector Balderas, who ran for the Senate in 2012, but lost in the Democratic primary 59 percent to 41 percent to then-Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is now New Mexico’s other senator. Politico also suggested Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver might run.

As for who the GOP might pick to run, Politico named former Rep. Steve Pearce, though he lost both a Senate race in 2008 and a gubernatorial bid in 2018; Susana Martinez, who served as the state’s governor for two terms but was unpopular when she left office in January; and former Albuquerque Mayor Rich Berry. New Mexico Political Report also mentioned former Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez and 2018 Senate GOP nominee Mick Rich as possibilities. Of course, there’s always former Gov. Gary Johnson, who was a Republican while he led the state from 1995 to 2003, but is now a Libertarian. He was the party’s presidential nominee in 2012 and 2016 and finished third in New Mexico’s 2018 Senate race with 15 percent.

Again, New Mexico is not so blue as to be out of reach under the right circumstances and with the right candidate, so the GOP would be foolish to give up on the seat. Sure, New Mexico is 7 points bluer than the nation, but keep in mind that in Maine (D+5), which is also up in 2020, Republican Sen. Susan Collins holds the seat. A Republican can win in this kind of state.

Moreover, outside of Alabama, Republicans have limited Democratic targets in 2020 — they’re defending 22 of the 34 seats up. Plus, open seats tend to be more vulnerable to the other party anyway — though the incumbent advantage has been shrinking. New Mexico last elected a Republican senator in 2002 (to this same seat) and it elected a Republican governor (Martinez) in 2010 and 2014 by wide margins. So it’s not impossible to imagine the state having a competitive race. The National Republican Senatorial Committee said that it looks forward to “fielding a strong candidate in the New Mexico Senate race.”

A strong Republican candidate is likely the first step towards Republicans making New Mexico competitive but it’s not the last one: We’ll have to wait and see how the national environment develops — and who Democrats nominate — to see if Democrats can retain their advantage in New Mexico.

[waywardsistersfunding-blog]

432 Democratic Candidates for the US House of Representatives.

1 Robert Kennedy Jr (AL-01)

2 Tabitha Isner (AL-02)

3 Mallory Hagan (AL-03)

4 Lee Auman (AL-04)

5 Peter Joffrion (AL-05)

6 Danner Kline (AL-06)

7 Terri Sewell (AL-07) (Incumbent)

8 Alyse Galvin (AK at Large)

9 Tom O’Halleran (AZ-01) (Incumbent)

10 Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-02)

11 Raul Grijalva (AZ-03) (Incumbent)

12 David Brill (AZ-04)

13 Joan Greene (AZ-05)

14 Anita Malik (AZ-06)

15 Ruben Gallego (AZ-07) (Incumbent)

16 Hiral Tipirneni (AZ-08)

17 Greg Stanton (AZ-09)

18 Chintan Desai (AR-01)

19 Clarke Tucker (AR-02)

20 Joshua Mahony (AR-3)

21 Hayden Shamel (AR-04)

22 Audrey Denney (CA-01)

23 Jared Huffman (CA-02) (Incumbent)

24 John Garamendi (CA-03) (Incumbent)

25 Jessica Morse (CA-04)

26 Mike Thompson (CA-05) (Incumbent)

27 Doris Matsui (CA-06) (Incumbent)

28 Ami Bera (CA-07) (Incumbent)

29 Jerry McNerney (CA-09) (Incumbent)

30 Josh Harder (CA-10)

31 Mark DeSaulnier (CA-11) (Incumbent)

32 Nancy Pelosi (CA-12) (Incumbent)

33 Barbara Lee (CA-13) (Incumbent)

34 Jackie Speier (CA-14) (Incumbent)

35 Eric Swalwell (CA-15) (Incumbent)

36 Jim Costa (CA-16) (Incumbent)

37 Ro Khanna (CA-17) (Incumbent)

38 Anna Eshoo (CA-18) (Incumbent)

39 Zoe Lofgren (CA-19) (Incumbent)

40 Jimmy Panetta (CA-20) (Incumbent)

41 TJ Cox (CA-21)

42 Andrew Janz (CA-22)

43 Tatiana Matta (CA-23)

44 Salud Carbajal (CA-24) (Incumbent)

45 Katie Hill (CA-25)

46 Julia Brownley (CA-26) (Incumbent)

47 Judy Chu (CA-27) (Incumbent)

48 Adam Schiff (CA-28) (Incumbent)

49 Tony Cardenas (CA-29) (Incumbent)

50 Brad Sherman (CA-30) (Incumbent)

51 Pete Aguilar (CA-31) (Incumbent)

52 Grace Napolitano (CA-32) (Incumbent)

53 Ted Lieu (CA-33) (Incumbent)

54 Jimmy Gomez (CA-34) (Incumbent)

55 Norma Torres (CA-35) (Incumbent)

56 Raul Ruiz (CA-36) (Incumbent)

57 Karen Bass (CA-37) (Incumbent)

58 Linda Sanchez (CA-38) (Incumbent)

59 Gil Cisneros (CA-39)

60 Lucille Royal-Allard (CA-40) (Incumbent)

61 Mark Takano (CA-41) (Incumbent)

62 Julia Peacock (CA-42) 

63 Maxine Waters (CA-43) (Incumbent)

64 Nanette Barragan (CA-44) (Incumbent)

65 Katie Porter (CA-45) (Incumbent)

66 Lou Correa (CA-46) (Incumbent)

67 Alan Lowenthal (CA-47) (Incumbent)

68 Harley Rouda (CA-48) 

69 Mike Levin (CA-49) 

70 Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50)

71 Juan Vargas (CA-51) (Incumbent)

72 Scott Peters (CA-52) (Incumbent)

73 Susan Davis (CA-53) (Incumbent)

74 Diana DeGette (CO-01) (Incumbent)

75 Joe Neguse (CO-02)

76 Diane Matsch Bush (CO-03)

77 Karen McCormick (CO-04)

78 Stephany Rose Spaulding (CO-05) 

79 Jason Crow (CO-06)

80 Ed Perlmutter (CO-07) (Incumbent)

81 John Larson (CT-01) (Incumbent)

82 Joe Courtney (CT-02) (Incumbent)

83 Rose L. DeLauro (CT-03) (Incumbent)

84 Jim Himes (CT-04) (Incumbent)

85 Jahana Hayes (CT-05) 

86 Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE At Large)

87 Jennifer Zimmerman (FL-01)

88 Bob Rackleff (FL-02)

89 Yvonne Hayes Hinson (FL-03)

90 Ges Belmont (FL-04)

91 Alfred Lawson (FL-05) (Incumbent)

92 Nancy Soderberg (FL-06) 

93 Stephanie Murphy (FL-07) (Incumbent)

94 Sanjay Patel (FL-08)

95 Darren Soto (FL-09) (Incumbent)

96 Val Demings (FL-10) (Incumbent)

97 Dana Cottrell (FL-11)

98 Chris Hunter (FL-12)

99 Charlie Crist (FL-13) (Incumbent)

100 Kathy Castor (FL-14) (Incumbent)

101 Kristen Carlson (FL-15)

102 David Shapiro (FL-16)

103 April Freeman (FL-17)

104 Lauren Baer (FL-18)

105 David Holden (FL-19)

106 Alcee L. Hastings (FL-20) (Incumbent)

107 Lois Frankel (FL-21) (Incumbent)

108 Theodore E. Deutch (FL-22) (Incumbent)

109 Debbie Wassermann Schultz (Fl-23) (Incumbent)

110 Frederica S. Wilson (FL-24) (Incumbent)

111 Mary Barzee Flores (Fl-25) 

112 Debbie Murcarsel-Powell (FL-26)

113 Donna Shalala (FL-27)

114 Lisa Ring (GA-01)

115 Sanford Bishop Jr (GA-02)

116 Chuck Enderlin (GA-03)

117 Hank Johnson (GA-04) (Incumbent)

118 John Lewis (GA-05) (Incumbent)

119 Lucy McBath (GA-06)

120 Carolyn Bourdeaux (GA-07)

121 Josh McCall (GA-09)

122 Tabitha Johnson-Green (GA-10)

123 Flynn Broady Jr (GA-11)

124 Francys Johnson (GA-12)

125 David Scott (GA-13) (Incumbent)

126 Steven Foster (GA-14) 

127 Ed Case (HI-01)

128 Tulsi Gabbard (HI-02)

129 Cristina McNeil (ID-01)

130 Aaron Swisher (ID-02)

131 Bobby Rush (IL-01) (Incumbent)

132 Robin Kelly (IL-02) (Incumbent)

133 Daniel Lipinski (IL-03) (Incumbent)

134 Jesus Garcia (IL-04) 

135 Tom Hanson (IL-05)

136 Sean Casten (IL-06)

137 Danny K. Davis (IL-07) (Incumbent)

138 Raja Krishnamoorthi (IL-08) (Incumbent)

139 Jan Schakowsky (IL-09) (Incumbent)

140 Brad Schneider (IL-10) (Incumbent)

141 Bill Foster (IL-11) (Incumbent)

142 Brendan Kelly (IL-12)

143 Betsy Londrigan (IL-13)

144 Lauren Underwood (IL-14)

145 Kevin Gaither (IL-15)

146 Sara Dady (IL-16)

147 Cheri Bustos (IL-17) (Incumbent)

148 Junius Rodriguez (IL-18)

149 Peter Visclosky (IN-01) (Incumbent)

150 Mel Hall (IN-02)

151 Courtney Tritch (IN-03)

152 Tobi Beck (IN-04)

153 Dee Thornton (IN-05)

154 Jeannine Lee Lake (IN-06)

155 Andre Carlson (IN-07) (Incumbent)

156 William Tanoos (IN-08)

157 Liz Watson (IN-09)

158 Abby Finkenauer (IA-01)

159 Dave Loebsack (IA-02) (Incumbent)

160 Cindy Axne (IA-03)

161 J.D. Scholten (IA-04)

162 Alan LaPolice (KS-01)

163 Paul Davis (KS-02)

164 Sharice Davids (KS-03)

165 James Thompson (KS-04)

166 Paul Walker (KY-01)

167 Hank Linderman (KY-02)

168 John Yarmuth (KY-03) (Incumbent)

169 Seth Hall (KY-04)

170 Kenneth Stepp (KY-05)

171 Amy McGrath (KY-06)

172 Tammy Savoie (LA-01)

173 Cedric Richmond (LA-02) (Incumbent)

174 Mildred “Mimi” Methvin (LA-03)

175 Ryan Trundle (LA-04)

176 Jessee Carlton Fleenor (LA-05)

177 Andie Saizan (LA-06)

178 Chellie Pingree (ME-01) (Incumbent)

179 Jared Golden (ME-02)

180 Jesse Colvin (MD-01)

181 Dutch Ruppersberger (MD-02) (Incumbent)

182 John Sarbanes (MD-03) (Incumbent)

183 Anthony Brown (MD-04) (Incumbent)

184 Steny Hoyer (MD-05) (Incumbent)

185 David Trone (MD-06)

186 Elijah Cummings (MD-07) (Incumbent)

187 Jamie Raskin (MD-08) (Incumbent)

188 Richard Neal (MA-01) (Incumbent)

189 Jim McGovern (MA-02) (Incumbent)

190 Lori Trahan (MA-03) 

191 Joseph Kennedy III (MA-04) (Incumbent)

192 Katherine Clark (MA-05) (Incumbent)

193 Seth Moulton (MA-06) (Incumbent)

194 Ayanna Pressley (MA-07) 

195 Stephen Lynch (MA-08) (Incumbent)

196 Bill Keating (MA-09) (Incumbent)

197 Matthew Morgan (MI-01)

198 Rob Davidson (MI-02)

199 Cathy Albro (MI-03)

200 Jerry Hilliard (MI-04)

201 Dan Kildee (MI-05)

202 Matt Longjohn (MI-06)

203 Gretchen Driskell (MI-07)

204 Elissa Slotkin (MI-08)

205 Andy Levin (MI-09)

206 Kimberly Bizon (MI-10)

207 Haley Stevens (MI-11)

208 Debbie Dinkel (MI-12) (Incumbent)

209 Rashida Tlaib (MI-13)

210 Brenda Lawrence (MI-14) (Incumbent)

211 Dan Feehan (MN-01)

212 Angie Craig (MN-02)

213 Dean Phillips (MN-03)

214 Betty McCollum (MN-04) (Incumbent)

215 Ilhan Omar (MN-05)

216 Ian Todd (MN-06)

217 Collin Peterson (MN-07) (Incumbent)

218 Joe Radinovich (MN-08)

219 Randy Wadkins (MS-01)

220 Bernie Thompson (MS-02) (Incumbent)

221 Michael Evans (MS-03)

222 Jeramey Anderson (MS-04)

223 William Lacy Clay (MO-01) (Incumbent)

224 Cort VanOstran (MO-02)

225 Katy Geppert (MO-03)

226 Renee Hoagenson (MO-04)

227 Emanuel Cleaver (MO-05) (Incumbent)

228 Henry Martin (MO-06)

229 Jamie Schoolcraft (MO-07)

230 Kathy Ellis (MO-08)

231 Kathleen Williams (MT At Large)

232 Jessica McClure (NE-01)

233 Kara Eastman (NE-02)

234 Paul Theobald (NE-03)

235 Dina Titus (NV-01) (Incumbent)

236 Clint Koble (NV-02)

237 Susie Lee (NV-03)

238 Steven Horsford (NV-04)

239 Chris Pappas (NH-01)

240 Annie Kuster (NH-02) (Incumbent)

241 Donald Norcross (NJ-01) (Incumbent)

242 Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02)

243 Andrew Kim (NJ-03)

244 Josh Welle (NJ-04)

245 Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05) (Incumbent)

246 Frank Pallone (NJ-06) (Incumbent)

247 Tom Malinowski (NJ-07) 

248 Albio Sires (NJ-08) (Incumbent)

249 Bill Pascrell (NJ-09) (Incumbent)

250 Donald Payne Jr (NJ-10) (Incumbent)

251 Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11)

252 Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ-12) (incumbent)

253 Debra Haland (NM-01)

254 Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02)

255 Ben Ray Lujan (NM-03) (Incumbent)

256 Perry Gershon (NY-01)

257 Liuba Greggen Shirley (NY-02)

258 Tom Suozzi (NY-03) (Incumbent)

259 Kathleen Rice (NY-04) (Incumbent)

260 Gregory W. Meeks (NY-05) (Incumbent)

261 Grace Meng (NY-06) (Incumbent)

262 Nydia Velazquez (NY-07) (Incumbent)

263 Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08) (Incumbent)

264 Yvette D. Clarke (NY-09) (Incumbent)

265 Jerrold Nadler (NY-10) (Incumbent)

266 Max Rose (NY-11)

267 Carolyn B. Maloney (NY-12) (Incumbent)

268 Adriano Espaillat (NY-13) (Incumbent)

269 Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) 

270 Jose Serrano (NY-15) (Incumbent)

271 Eliot Engel (NY-16) (Incumbent)

272 Nita Lowey (NY-17) (Incumbent)

273 Sean Maloney (NY-18) (Incumbent)

274 Antonio Delgado (NY-19)

275 Paul Tonko (NY-20) (Incumbent)

276 Tedra Cobb (NY-21)

277 Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)

278 Tracy Mitrano (NY-23)

279 Dana Balter (NY-24) 

280 Joseph Morelle (NY-25)

281 Brian Higgins (NY-26) (Incumbent)

282 Nate McMurray (NY-27) 

283 G.K. Butterfield (NC-01)

284 Linda Coleman (NC-02)

285 David Price (NC-04) (Incumbent)

286 Denise Adams (NC-05)

287 Ryan Watts (NC-06)

288 Kyle Horton (NC-07)

289 Frank McNeill (NC-08)

290 Dan McCready (NC-09)

291 David Wilson Brown (NC-10)

292 Phillip Price (NC-11)

293 Alma Adams (NC-12) (Incumbent)

294 Kathy Manning (NC-13)

295 Mac Schneider (ND At Large)

296 Aftab Pureval (OH-01)

297 Jill Schiller (OH-02)

298 Joyce Beatty (OH-03) (Incumbent)

299 Janet Garrett (OH-04)

300 John Michael Galbraith (OH-05)

301 Shawna Roberts (OH-06)

302 Ken Harbaugh (OH-07)

303 Vanessa Enoch (OH-08)

304 Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) (Incumbent)

305 Theresa Gasper (OH-10)

306 Marcia Fudge (OH-11) (Incumbent)

307 Danny O’Connor (OH-12)

308 Tim Ryan (OH-13) (Incumbent)

309 Betsy Rader (OH-14) 

310 Rick Neal (OH-15)

311 Susan Moran Palmer (OH-16)

312 Tim Gilpin (OK-01)

313 Jason Nichols (OK-02)

314 Frankie Robbins (OK-03)

315 Mary Brannon (OK-04)

316 Kendra Horn (OK-05)

317 Suzanne Bonamici (OR-01) (Incumbent)

318 Jamie McLeod Skinner (OR-02)

319 Earl Blumenauer (OR-03) (Incumbent)

320 Peter DeFazio (OR-04) (Incumbent)

321 Kurt Schrader (OR-05) (Incumbent)

322 Scott Wallace (PA-01)

323 Brendan Doyle (PA-02) (Incumbent)

324 Dwight Evans (PA-03) (Incumbent)

325 Madeleine Dean (PA-04) 

326 Mary Gay Scanlon (PA-05)

327 Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06)

328 Susan Wild (PA-07)

329 Matt Cartwright (PA-08) (Incumbent)

330 Denny Wolff (PA-09)

331 George Scott (PA-10) 

332 Jessica King (PA-11)

333 Marc Friedenberg (PA-12)

334 Brent Ottaway (PA-13)

335 Bibiana Berio (PA-14)

336 Susan Boser (PA-15)

337 Ronald DiNicola (PA-16)

338 Conor Lamb (PA-17)

339 Michael Doyle (PA-18) (Incumbent)

340 David N. Cicilline (RI-01) (Incumbent)

341 Jim Langevin (RI-02) (Incumbent)

342 Joe Cunningham (SC-01)

343 Sean Carrigan (SC-02)

344 Mary Geren (SC-03)

345 Brandon Brown (SC-04)

346 Archie Parnell (SC-05)

347 James Clyburn (SC-06) (Incumbent)

348 Robert Williams (SC-07)

349 Timothy Bjorkman (SD At Large)

350 Marty Olsen (TN-01)

351 Renee Hoyos (TN-02)

352 Danielle Mitchell (TN-03)

353 Mariah Phillips (TN-04)

354 Jim Cooper (TN-05) (Incumbent)

355 Dawn Barlow (TN-06)

356 Justin Kanew (TN-07)

357 Erika Stotts Pearson (TN-08)

358 Steve Cohen (TN-09) (Incumbent)

359 Shirley McKellar (TX-01)

360 Todd Litton (TX-02)

361 Lorie Burch (TX-03)

362 Catherine Krantz (TX-04)

363 Dan Wood (TX-05)

364 Jana Lynne Sanchez (TX-06)

365 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (TX-07)

366 Steven David (TX-08)

367 Al Green (TX-09) (Incumbent)

368 Mike Siegel (TX-10) 

369 Jennie Lou Leeder (TX-11) 

370 Vanessa Adia (TX-12)

371 Greg Sagan (TX-13)

372 Adrienne Bell (TX-14)

373 Vincente Gonzalez (TX-15)

374 Veronica Escobar (TX-16)

375 Rick Kennedy (TX-17)

376 Sheila Jackson Lee (TX-18)

377 Miguel Levario (TX-19)

378 Joaquin Castro (TX-20) (Incumbent)

379 Joseph Kopser (TX-21) 

380 Sri Preston Kulkarni (TX-22)

381 Gina Ortiz Jones (TX-23)

382 Jan McDowell (TX-24)

383 Julie Oliver (TX-25)

384 Linsey Fagan (TX-26)

385 Eric Holguin (TX-27)

386 Henry Cuellar (TX-28) (Incumbent)

387 Sylvia Garcia (TX-29)

388 Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30) (Incumbent)

389 Mary Jennings “MJ” Hegar (TX-31)

390 Colin Allred (TX-32)

391 Marc Veasey (TX-33) (Incumbent)

392 Filemon Vela (TX-34) (Incumbent)

393 Lloyd Doggett (TX-35) (Incumbent)

394 Dayna Steele (TX-36)

395 Lee Castillo (UT-01)

396 Shireen Ghorbani (UT-02)

397 James Singer (UT-03)

398 Ben McAdams (UT-04)

399 Peter Welch (VT At Large) (Incumbent)

400 Vangie Williams (VA-01)

401 Elaine Luria (VA-02)

402 Bobby Scott (VA-03) (Incumbent)

403 Aston Donald McEachin (VA-04)

404 Leslie Cockburn (VA-05)

405 Jennifer Lewis (VA-06)

406 Abigail Spanberger (VA-07)

407 Don Beyer (VA-08) (Incumbent)

408 Anthony Flaccavento (VA-09)

409 Jennifer Wexton (VA-10)

410 Gerald Connolly (VA-11) (Incumbent))

411 Suzan DelBene (WA-01) (Incumbent)

412 Rick Larsen (WA-02) (Incumbent)

413 Carolyn Long (WA-03) 

414 Christine Brown (WA-04)

415 Lisa Brown (WA-05)

416 Derek Kilmer (WA-06) (Incumbent)

417 Pramila Jayapal (WA-07) (Incumbent)

418 Kim Schrier (WA-08) 

419 Sarah Smith (WA-09)

420 Denny Heck (WA-10) (Incumbent)

421 Kendra Fershee (WV-01)

422 Talley Sergent (WV-02)

423 Richard Ojeda (WV-03)

424 Randy Bryce (WI-01)

425 Mark Pocan (WI-02) (Incumbent)

426 Ronald ”Ron” Kind (WI-03) (Incumbent)

427 Gwen Moore (WI-04) (Incumbent)

428 Tom Palzewicz (WI-05)

429 Dan Kohl (WI-06)

430 Margaret Engebretson (WI-07)

431 Beau Liegeois (WI-08)

432 Greg Hunter (WY At Large)

(There are 435 seats in the US House of Representatives. Three seats this cycle (CA-08, GA-08 and NC-03) do not have a Democratic candidate on the ballot.)

vote.gov 

[theodoreashley94026c]

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

View Article at Inside Elections

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[cashutters50309]

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

View Article at Inside Elections

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[wastoon35]

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

View Article at Inside Elections

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[dianehsaogue]

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

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General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

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General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

View Article at Inside Elections

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[lloydfoster48212o]

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

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[wargiry584]

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

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[alanfrederickpg]

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States By Leah Askarinam

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.

Alabama

Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.

California

Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.

Iowa

Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.

Mississippi

Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.

Montana

Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.

New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.

New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.

South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.

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