#we are not a political page and qe will continue not to be

[mawsnclaws]

Imagine a pred (gently) yanking away your phone and putting it aside. You've been doomscrolling for too long, the fearmongering is making you anxious. You're carefully scooped up and kissed on the head, before they swallow you down to relax in their stomach for a bit. Nothing can hurt you, just close your eyes and relax for a bit.

[massielandnetwork]

Navigating an Historic Period - Economic Bubble and Anarchy

Changes are Coming Fast and Furiously – Maybe the end of the Pandemic

Is this going to become National Apologize to a Conspiracy Theorist Week? If you were not paying close attention, you probably missed several important changes last week. Allow me to highlight just a few of them.

1. The disease called Influenza, commonly called The Flu, has miraculously reappeared after being absent for most of the last two years. Since the first of the year hospitals and doctors are diagnosing The Flu versus everything being the Wuhan/CCP/Covid Virus.

2. The FDA has been ordered to release their documentation on the mRNA “vaccines” over 8 months beginning March 1 with the initial release of 55,000 pages of material.

3. Did I read correctly that Veritas released documentation from the Department of Defense (DoD) showing that –

a. In 2018 the DoD declined to support Fauci’s request to fund the Wuhan Bioweapons Lab (WBL) creation of the Covid 19 virus with its “gain of function” (a euphemism for becoming a weapon) because DoD considered it too dangerous.

b. In 2021 the DoD determined that Fauci had funded the research anyway (EcoHealth Alliance).

c. The virus entered the world from the WBL in August 2019.

d. Ivermectin and HCQ are effective treatments.

e. mRNA “vaccines” and masks are ineffective.

4. The head of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Walensky, suddenly acknowledged that hospitals have been over reporting deaths from the Wuhan/CCP/Covid Virus when actually a very high percentage if not a majority of those deaths have been from other causes.

5. Pelosi “invited” Biden to give his State of the Union address to Congress on March 1. This odd date only makes sense if you connect items 1-4 above and combine it with Biden declaring the Pandemic has ended. It would make great political drama and give the appearance of Biden actually doing something about the Pandemic. If they accompany his announcement with reductions in testing, the number of virus cases will drop. Hooray?

Some additional events included a Democrat Senator filing legislation to make illegal the trading of stock such Pelosi and her husband along with 60 other members of Congress have been doing over the Pandemic. I have not read the proposed legislation, but I admire the spirit even if it is full of the holes like the current regulations that prohibit members from trading and benefiting financially but not their spouses (please see the 2020 Senate Report on Biden family involvement with Burisma prepared by the U. S. senate Homeland Security Committee under Senator Ron Johnson).

With investigations and forensic audits of the 2020 election underway in more than 10 states, is that “cracking” sounds a warning of the collapse of the Biden/ Demented Marxist fortress? Another big “crack” will occur when the Biden Administration loses control of the January 6 DC Gulag prisoners who have been illegally detained and thus who create a massive, explosive problem for the Biden/Demented Marxists of “What do we do with them?”. This might be fun to watch.

Economic Update:

After two months of The Fed tapering its Quantitative Easing (QE), the statements by Chairman Powell about raising rates as much as they need to raise them to get control of inflation has finally moved the 10 Year Treasury rates from approximately 1.5% to 1.8%. That impacted mortgage rates which increased from approximately 3% to approximately 3.3%. That increase seems unimportant to those of us who remember homebuyers paying 16 % or more on home loans. However, now that homebuyers have been trained that mortgage rates should be around 3%, increasing them to 3.3% will have a psychological impact. Plus, the monthly payments required to buy a home will increase taking some potential buyers out of the market. The housing market will slow further from the recent balance of demand and supply.

Interest rates will continue to increase as the private market is forced to buy those mortgages and bonds no longer being bought by The Fed. This spring when The Fed is scheduled to begin raising their Federal Funds Rate, more interest rates will be affected. That is why the stock market is having periodic heartburn.

The housing market is a leading indicator of the economy and it has been over the last two months signaling that home prices have finally risen to the level that balances supply and demand in the residential market. By reducing the number of homebuyers in the market, increased interest rates will burst the Real Estate Bubble including not just residential but commercial and land. Similar impacts will occur in the other financial asset classes and the result will be a recession probably late 2022 but certainly in 2023. Ignore the talking heads only able to read teleprompters like Biden.

While the failure of Marxism in China which commenced with the default of China Evergrande Group and other Chinese residential developers, the ripple effects will impact the world. In addition to watching the Chinese economy melt, here are several additional items to monitor:

1. Numerous countries have now felt the wrath of China disagreeing with the Chinese organ harvesting from their prisoners and therefore China is blocking imports from those countries. Each time China exercises their “control’, more companies are deciding to move their production out of China. Reshoring is gaining momentum.

2. Here in the USA, the Biden and the Demented Marxists mistake inflation for economic growth. A senile president and inept leadership will impact whether the USA is able to be the engine of growth to bring the world economy out of a global economic recession.

3. With Real Interest Rates negative (Short term savings at 1% - Inflation Rate 7% = Real Interest Rate of MINUS 6%), inflation has only begun to run because there is no incentive to hold cash.

America will return to REAL prosperity when we combine Honest Elections and Capitalism to slash taxes, reduce the size of government, and provide tax incentives to re-build the American manufacturing economy which will increase the size of the American economic pie. That combination provides the tax revenue to assist those who need it. We prospered under the hand of God because our country combined Christianity, capitalism, and democracy.

Please pray:

1. For the 600 American being held as political prisoners by Biden and the DMs in hell hole conditions in the DC Gulag. Demented Marxism on display.

2. For honest elections because they are the fulcrum of our American experiment. It is not vengeance to demand honesty and that everyone play by the same laws.

Men make plans, but God ALWAYS wins. Every portfolio should contain some cash. A great piece of land remains The Best investment long term. Stay focus on the Truth, The Way, and The Light. We just celebrated the birth of Jesus, the Light coming into the world. Just like 2022 years ago, those consumed by the world are living in the dark and do not understand this event much less that it means their power, economic or political or both, is worthless.

“Do not let your hearts be trouble. Believe in God, believe also in me.”

(John 14:1 New Revised Standard Version, Oxford University Press)

Let’s Go Brandon!

Stay healthy,

Ned

January 12, 2021

Copyright Massie Land Network. All rights Reserved.

[paulckrueger]

Off Message

Major macro risks so far this year have had mostly temporary impacts on markets, all while monetary policy has evolved from accommodative toward restrictive. I still believe the shift in policy (and the accompanying shift in US dollar liquidity) is ultimately the dominant driver of markets. The performance of risk assets and interest rates in the month since my last commentary provides an interesting case in point.  Subtle changes in the monetary policy outlook, which were effected almost entirely by Chair Powell, drove markets more than macro risks.  Today I’ll recap both macro and policy evolution, which is pretty striking when viewed all together, and then shoehorn it into the Three Phases Model to get a near-term outlook for further market performance.

The list of macro risks was pretty long and it got longer. You probably noticed each of these when they surfaced, but collectively October has a pretty unappealing macro backdrop:

The Italian budget fight between the country and the European Commission is not resolved, and Italy has a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio and cannot unilaterally monetize debt.

The risk of a “hard” Brexit does not appear to have diminished, with the fight over the Irish border still looking intractable.

China-US relations declined further, in both economic and political terms, on three fronts: details of Chinese cyber espionage via the server hardware supply chain in the US spilled out in to the public discourse via multiple Bloomberg News reports; the NAFTA 2.0 agreement contains a “poison pill�� preventing unilateral trade negotiations with China and others; and the Trump Administration openly accused China of influencing the US midterm elections.

Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and its shifting explanations threaten the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, the world’s top two oil-producing countries.

The US budget deficit ballooned to $779 billion, and government revenue collection under the new tax plan is actually down[1]. despite nearly 6% nominal GDP growth over the last 12 months.

Share buybacks in the US are mostly on hold due to earnings blackout periods.

Separately from all of this, Fed Chair Powell made several appearances since his unnecessarily dovish August speech in Jackson Hole. Rather than definitively walk back that dovishness, his various comments were hazy and lacked a clear message.

At times he was dovish: “the main thing where we might need to move along a little bit quicker would be if inflation…surprises to the upside. We don’t see that.  We really don’t see that. It’s not in our forecast….”[2].  “[T]he rise in wages is broadly consistent with observed rates of price inflation and labor productivity growth, and therefore does not point to an overheating labor market.”[3].

He does not see it to be in the interests of the Fed to slow down growth to regulate inflation, despite slow potential growth at full employment: “So if the economy is weakening, then it’s very possible we’d be cutting rates.” And he does not expect growth to slow until the end of the tightening cycle.  Responding to a journalist question “[do you see] any kind of specific sign posts that we’ve reached the end of the tightening cycle?”  Chair Powell said “…You know if headline growth slowed down.”[2].

At times he was hawkish: “Interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they’ll be neutral…. We may go past neutral. But we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.”[3].

He continued to reiterate that the committee does not know where the neutral interest rate (r-star) is, nor does it care: “we don’t want to suggest that either we have this precise understanding of where accommodative stops or suggest that that’s a really important point in our thinking…. [T]hat does kind of amount to thinking less about one’s precise point estimate of the neutral rate. So that’s how I think about it.”  Notwithstanding that the SEP dots are fairly consistent in the point estimate of long-run neutral, Powell went on to say: “we have to be humble about how little we really know about where these starred value variables either are or are going.”[2].

There was also some cheerleading of the strong economy, which ultimately resulted in a roundabout declaration that he could soft-land the economy: “Indefinitely is a long time…not every business cycle is going to last forever, but no reason to believe this cycle can’t go on for quite some time, effectively indefinitely.”[4]. Of course, no business cycle has ever lasted indefinitely, and at the September press conference he side-stepped a question about whether he would need to cut rates to soft land the economy.

Ultimately, Chair Powell increased the uncertainty of the policy rate path all else equal, even if not increasing the uncertainty of the Fed’s reaction function. By undermining market confidence in the Fed’s own estimates of the long-run neutral rate, more uncertainty was necessary in market pricing for that neutral rate and ultimately the terminal rate on the current hiking path.  Naturally, that uncertainty manifest itself in risk to the upside in the terminal rate, so the 10-year yield went higher and the curve steepened. In practical terms, marginal sellers of Treasury bonds were encouraged to do so.

This move to higher 10-year yields was at least as important a driver of all risk markets as the list of macro risks, and I think the underlying implications for monetary policy of the former (greater uncertainty) will persist for a bit longer. The fact that we had a material rise in long term rates in the beginning of the month of October is important, because October is the month where Fed QT steps up to $50bn per month, and ECB QE steps down from EUR30 to 15bn per month.  October is the first month where global G4 central bank balance sheets are now likely shrinking in aggregate.

As a result, I believe the combination of increased interest rate policy uncertainty and accelerated balance sheet reduction has kicked off a mini-Three Phases cycle afresh, as in back to Phase 1. Financial conditions tighten in a fairly uniform way: interest rates go higher, stocks weaken, spreads widen, volatility increases, and the dollar strengthens.  It wasn’t perfectly choreographed but generally in the first 10 days of October we have seen Phase 1-type price action, and the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index responded accordingly, reaching the tightest conditions of the year so far.  My expectation from here forward is a continuation of the Three Phases in miniature, i.e. next we could see a repeat of the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2, as the market anticipates the impact of tighter financial conditions on underlying economic performance.  Risk assets will stay kind of weak, but Treasurys will rally a bit in a resumption of regular negative correlation between stocks and bonds.  It may very well be a macro event which triggers this – back in May of this year, the Italian political crisis was the catalyst for resumption of right-way correlation between stocks and bonds.  Then, once there is concern that tighter conditions may impact the economy, the Fed will respond, perhaps offering some clarity on how far until neutral, and emphasizing whether they are planning to pause at neutral.  That’ll kick off Phase 3 of the mini-Three Phases, a relief rally in risk and interest rate backup, which may also establish itself as Phase 3 of the major full-year timeframe we have analyzed in these pages so far this year.

______________

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-budget-deficit-widened-in-august-treasury-says-1536861724″>https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-budget-deficit-widened-in-august-treasury-says-1536861724

[2] Sep. 26, 2018 FOMC Press Conference: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20180926.pdf

[3] Oct. 2, 2018 speech to NABE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20181002a.htm

[4] Oct. 3, 2018 interview at the Atlantic Festival: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/10/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-ignoring-trump/572110/

The post Off Message appeared first on http://blog.jpmorganinstitutional.com/.

from Surety Bond Brokers? Business https://blog.jpmorganinstitutional.com/2018/10/off-message/

[georgettaeichelb-blog]

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