#wdc math

[chussyracing]

notes app maths III: top 3 drivers in the standings and their chances to win the wdc

Current top 3 in the standings:

Max: 313 points

Lando: 254 points (59 less)

Charles: 235 points (19 less than lando, 78 less than Max)

Points in remaining race weekends:

7 races remaining:

25 points per race victory = maximum 175 points available (7×25)

18 points for a p2 finish = maximum 126 points (7×18)

15 points for a p3 finish = maximum 105 points (7×15)

1 point for a fastest lap within top 10 = maximum 7 points (1×7)

3 sprints remaining:

8 points per sprint victory = maximum 24 points (3×8)

7 points for a p2 finish = maximum 21 points (3×7)

6 points for a p3 finish = maximum 18 points (3×6)

Maximum available points for all wins: 206 (175 for race wins, 7 for fastest laps, 24 for sprint wins)

Second most points for all p2s: 147 (126 for p2s in races, 21 for p2s in sprints and no fastest laps)

Third most points for all p3s: 123 (105 for p3s in races, 18 for p3s in sprints and no fastest laps)

[From mathematical point of view, anyone from Perez above in the standings is currently in contention for the championship.]

To win the WDC they need to:

Charles needs to outscore Max by at least 79 points (cca 11.3 per race weekend) and Lando by at least 20 points (cca 2.9 per race weekend)

Lando needs to outscore Max by at least 60 points (cca 8.6 per race weekend) and not get outscored by more than 2.9 points per race weekend at the same time

Max needs to not get outscored by Lando by more than 8.6 points per race weekend and Charles by 11.3 points per race weekend (aka he "just" needs to stay ahead in the standings and do damage limitation on track)

Simplified scenarios with no unpredictability and perfect consistency:

SCENARIO 1:

Charles wins everything, he gets 441 points (235 current points + 206 for all wins and FLs)

Max gets all 2nd places, he gets 460 points (313 current points + 147 for all p2s)

Lando gets all 3rd places, he gets 377 points (254 current points + 123 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Max, 2. Charles, 3. Lando

SCENARIO 2:

Charles wins everything, he gets 441 points (235 current + 206 for all wins)

Lando gets all 2nd places, he gets 401 points (254 current + 147 for all p2s)

Max gets all 3rd places, he gets 436 points (313 current + 123 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Charles, 2. Max, 3. Lando

SCENARIO 3:

Lando wins everything, he gets 460 points (254 current + 206 for all wins)

Charles gets all 2nd places, he gets 382 points (235 current + 147 for all p2s)

Max gets all 3rd places, he gets 436 points (313 current + 123 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Lando, 2. Max, 3. Charles

SCENARIO 4:

Lando wins everything, he gets 460 points (254 current + 206 for all wins)

Max gets all 2nd places, he gets 460 points (313 current + 147 for all p2s)

Charles gets all 3rd places, he gets 358 points (235 current + 123 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Lando (even on points but more wins), 2. Max, 3. Charles

(not making scenario 5 and 6 for if max wins everything from now on, max would win in both and charles would get p2 if he scored all p2s)

[hyacinthsdiamonds]

Was nobody going to tell me that Oscar was one of the grid kids holding flags at the Australian gp which was also happened to be Max's F1 debut or was I just meant to do the math myself -

[25points]

the second aston martin seat being a retirement home so far

[multifandomgirl08]

Welcoming Another Verstappen [Mini Verstappen Series]

Dad!Max Verstappen x Mother!Reader (Established Relationship)

Photo Credit: Pinterest/Tumblr

Format: Social Media

Previous Part → Next Part Mini Verstappen Masterlist

ynverstappen

Liked by maxverstappen1, sophiekumpen, and 428,916 others

ynverstappen Our secret got spilled a little early but I can't wait to meet you in July.

landonorris Championships = Number of children????

ynverstappen I can't confirm or deny that.

fan94 When Mama Verstappen is pregnant again!

fan23 How does she look so fucking radiant? Like, you just had a child less than 2 years ago.

fan37 Wait, didn’t Max just let this slip on the Team Redline stream this afternoon?

fan86 So, lukecraneoffical just unintentionally spilled the beans of Y/N's pregnancy without any knowledge.

fan69 Yeah fan86. Wish I heard what Y/N said when Max had his mic turned off.

May 25, 2027

maxverstappen1

Liked by sophiekumpen, martingarrix, and 698,563 others

maxverstappen1 Welcome to the world Nikolaas Martin Verstappen. You surprised us by crossing the finished line early. Clocking in a time of 38 weeks.

landonorris I called dibs on the next kid being names after me. What happened?

maxverstappen1 Talk to my wife. She makes the rules.

martingarrix I'm honored that this little boy is named after me. maxverstappen1 liked this

christianhorner Congratulations Max and Y/N on the birth of another healthy baby boy. Wishing you all the best from myself and Geri.

fan39 Love that Y/N is in charge of naming all of the kids.

fan76 Just did a little math, 38 weeks... looks like we have ourselves a WDC baby!

July 9, 2027

ynverstappen

Liked by oscarpiastri and 452,234 others

ynverstappen Happy Birthday to my oldest child. My first little boy. The kid who woke me up one day just to sit in Max's car and ask me, Mama when can I go get my super license like Papa? You bring joy to my life every day, I never knew what unconditional love was until the day that I met you.

landonorris If he wants his super license, he needs to learn from a real professional.

dannyric3fan Umm... Max is a real professional mate. Those WDCs weren't accidents. mstappenfan dannyric3fan Pretty sure that Lando is joking, no reason to turn this serious man.

charles_leclerc Super license? He's only 7!

mstappenfan85 Max started driving in Formula 1 when he was 17, so it's not that far away. Just another 11 years by FIA rules.

View all 745 comments

fan68 I know most people are over the whole Y/N isn't Nico's birth mom discussion. But it really tells you a lot about her that after she's had two kids with Max, she doesn't treat Nico differently than Nikita or Nikolaas. She loves all of them the same.

October 17, 2027

ynverstappen

Liked by victoriaverstappen, sophiekumpen and 284,679 others

ynverstappen Happy Holidays from Belgium!

victoriaverstappen The boys look so cute in their matching pajamas.

ynverstappen Niki says thank you auntie for his Christmas gifts! victoriaverstappen 😂😂

View all 536 comments

fan87 How is it that all of Max's kids look exactly like him?

fan45 Verstappen clones! One wasn't enough when Nico came into Max's life, Y/N birthed two more!

fan98 Love the little peek into the Verstappen clan! Especially since Y/N hasn’t been coming to races recently.

December 28, 2027

Mini Verstappen taglist: @karmabyfernando, @barcagirly, @sachaa-ff, @iamahallucinationnn, @glow-ish, @nonsensical-nonsence, @fanboyluvr, @champomiel, @gothicwidowsworld, @lighttsoutlewis, @itsalwaysgay, @minkyungseokie, @mynameisangeloflife, @ursforever129, @aundercover, @bborra, @mindless-rock, @cixrosie, @barcelonaloverf1life, @taylorslovesswifties13, @konsti081, @mellowarcadefun, @smnthnclj, @brekkers-whore, @lpab, @thedecalcomania-blog, @xoscar03, @em-gvf01, @haikyuen, @shelbyteller , @geniusalpaca, @princessria127 , @mysticalnightenthusiast , @green-thots , @leah-also-known-as-creatoronwp , @ellelabelle , @lilypat , @dreamercrowd

[ferrstappen]

could you be more obvious? l MV1

a/n: thissss is based on a request I got and ofc I added the Verstappen twins <3 this is messy I’m sorry but I’m on a writing mood

summary: you show up pregnant for the first race of 2024, just six months after Max won his 3rd WDC.

Max being crowned world champion for the third time was something that made your skin buzz with excitement, a knot form in your throat seeing everything he’s achieved and the pride and satisfaction of knowing that every single person on the team had his back, was definitely one of the best sights.

But for Luca and Mila Verstappen, their papa being champion again time wasn’t exactly a big deal… they knew it was important because there were lots of fireworks and special tshirts, but they were born watching Max a champion, they only knew him as such.

what, like it’s a big deal?

They didn’t say it, but you knew that’s what was on their mind.

That was the reason why both Max and you decided to not bring the twins to Qatar, especially with the high temperatures and Luca’s history of getting sick during Grand Prix weekends, they were more than happy to stay with auntie Vic while you got ready to celebrate your husband.

And God, did you celebrate him.

Without the twins, the gin and tonics kept coming, the sloppy make out session on the VIP area of the club as if you were teenagers again, his front pressed against your back as he tried to impress you with his best moves, only to earn a couple of drunken giggles and peck on the lips.

Things were starting to quiet down, lots of people had already left to their hotel room, but you and Max were on a world of your own, with you sitting on top of him, but the moment you started feeling his lips ghosting against your neck, his hands moving from your waist to squeeze your hip.

and you knew it was time to go.

Bahrain, 2024

Max didn’t remember being so excited for race day. Yes, he was anxious for the new season, but the highlight of his day was seeing you getting ready, a loose blouse and white jeans accentuating the noticeable belly of six months of pregnancy, which was a complete surprise to everyone.

You entered the paddock through the main entrance, with photographers everywhere and Kym Ilman greeting your family, because the scene was worth more than a couple thousand likes on Instagram: you were holding Mila’s hand who in return was holding Luca’s, while Max walked with his arm protectively around your belly.

The twins weren’t exactly thrilled about the idea of having a baby brother or sister, a fact they made clear by asking every day if there was any chance to stop the baby from coming home eventually, telling you and Max that they were more than okay having the cats. Sadly, they were the only ones

“No! No! No! Is that why you went MIA on social media? Oh my God look at this bump! Congratulations you two,” Lily let go of Alex’s hand to give you a tight hug as Alex congratulated Max with a couple of pats on the back.

The scene repeated itself with most drivers on the grid, who didn’t ask how far along you were, but were able to deduce the situation. Until…

“How far along are you?” Charles asked you as he held Luca on his arms, letting him mess with his hair.

You blushed and Max’s chest puffed as if he has been waiting for the question. “I’m a couple of days away from the six months mark,”

Charles looked as if he was doing a very specific and difficult math problem as his girlfriend, Alexandra, stares at him with a faint blush on her cheeks, probably since she has always been more reserved around you because she was younger, but she was impatiently waiting for her boyfriend to catch on the situation.

“This is a 2023 season baby?” Charles asked.

“Looks like it,” Max answered with a smug smile on his face, but in reality it was an excited grin which reached his blue eyes.

“No…” Charles jaw dropped and had to put Luca on the floor.

“No what?” Max counter asked, even if he knew the answer. This time he started drawing mindless shapes on the clothes over your swollen stomach.

“Max… is this your championship child?” Charles whispered, shocked.

“What can I say? Winning on and off the track!”

And Charles almost passed out as both you and Max laughed, beaming while interlacing your fingers over your belly, knowing cameras wouldn’t catch you there.

user1: Max knocked y/n up the night of the third championship change my mind

user2: Max Verstappen pulled a k-mag and I respect that

user3: do we know the birthday of the verstappen twins? Asking for a friend

user4: y/n and max will have a full kindergarten if they have a kid every time he wins the championship💀

user5: are we really surprised after those videos leaked of max squeezing her ass while they were celebrating the 3rd wdc

user6: if the maths are mathing this baby will be born around the Monaco gp. GODS PLAN

[landograndprix]

「Feel the magic ๛ l.n」

part x

✧.* your fans will do anything to defend you and lando and while life keeps getting better, someone else is struggling.

✧.* been listening to Lover by Taylor way too much lately, its giving birdie and lando..do whatever you want with that 😅 this a psa for the people who wanted to be on my taglist but never got tagged, i didn't forget or ignore you, I simply am unable to tag you and therefore removed you from the list feel free to ask me again so I can take a look at it. Taglist is open Love ya ❤️

✧.* prev part - next part

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y/nusername

liked by riabish, maxfewtrell and 672,652 others

y/nusername dumb, dumb, dumber and the dumbest. ❤️

tagged: cecilemoulin, landonorris, maxfewtrell

view all 983 comments

hannahh cool..y'all looking for a fifth? Asking for a friend..

cecilemoulin ❤️

norrizz who's who though? 👀

landofoouurr milou punching air right now

norry4 why? They're literally double dating and milou isn't dating anyone..awkward fifth wheel she would be

bott_ass now I ain't good at math but they stopped hanging out after those pictures of Carlos and Y/n got leaked so I think we can figure out who's at fault here 💀

landoy/n my favorite comfort people 🥰

yourmumsuser cuties 🥰❤️🥰❤️

bobsnorris not mamma y/l/n adopting Cecile and Max as well 😭

maxfewtrell ❤️

landonorris ❤️

landoscar I want what they have, is that too much to ask?

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mclaren

liked by pierregasly, landonorris and 236,532 others

mclaren and another P1 for y/n! 🥇🏆

#miamigp

tagged: y/nusername

view all 456 comments

marcuskleim woman is on her way to win her 4th wdc

norrizz that's mah gal 🥰

bott_ass love seeing max getting his ass humbled 🥰

jonathan0 max fan here loved the battle between them!

maxmaxmax love how the friendship between max and y/n seems way better than before!

maxverstap good thing kelly wasn't there, that hug was real tight 😭

norry4 no but he was so happy he could fight against y/n again, like you can't convince me he enjoyed last season..

maxverstap pretty sure they told y/n to let him win before every race..😒

riabish that's my girl ❤️

norrislan why are you favouring y/n again?

landoscar I don't think mclaren knew Milou was going to drive straight into lando's rear but okay...

mrsnorris I don't like y/n but this is a reach, milou fucked up lando's race.

hamilt44n can we talk about how happy max is whenever y/n is on the podium with him 😭

norstappen they were teammates but they're friends now ☺

charlos16 y'all talking about the way max and y/n acted but refuse to see the interaction between Fernando and y/n?

yukisan exactly!!!

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landonorizzzz

liked by y/nusername and 547 others

landonorizzzz lando with a fan earlier this morning 🥵

norry4 call me an ambulance cause I just died dead 😭

norrizz @.y/nusername

landoscar @.y/nusername lucky girl 😭

bobsnorris @.y/nusername

bott_ass @.y/nusername

landonorizzzz not y'all tagging y/n and her liking my post 😭

y/nusername I see that he's managed to escape his cage and go out looking like this..

maxnorris absolute slut behaviour 🙄

mrsnorris oh my god 🥵

y/nusername y'all have his phone number? You think I have a chance?

landonorris that's me in that picture

hamilt44n shoot your shot girl 👀

y/nlandooo these two I swear 😭

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Feel the magic taglist: @celesteblack08 @mrsmaybank13 @cha-hot @judesgfirl @roseseraj @kissesandmartinis @jpg3 @amulhermaisfelizdomundo @marialovesf1 @silkenthusiasts @luvrrish @laneyspaulding19 @emily-b @formula1bby @buckybarnessweetheart @strawberrychita @iifloweringnightsii @buendiabebeta @babyvinnie @mishaandthebrits @hockeyboysarehot @ironmaiden1313 @justdreamersdream

Lando taglist: @beatricemiruna @simp-for-fictional-people @landossainz @christianpulisic10

Everything taglist; @thomaslefteyebrow @hopefulinlove @smoothopz @honethatty12 @cixrosie @parkersmjs @ireadthensuetheauthors @celestialams @be-your-coffee-pot @heli991113 @kodzuvk @reality-is-a-con @80sloverry @bibissparkles @myescapefromthislife @lanando4 @elliegrey2803 @ravisinghs-wife @minkyungseokie @harrysdimple05

[silentreigns]

Not to compliment RedBull on anything. But this is the funniest fucking thing ever. Someone at RedBull did the math to see how they could prevent Lando from winning the WDC.

[aes-555]

To the people hating on Piastri,

It's not Oscars fault tht your driver couldn't defend a p1 for his life

Oscar overtook him fair and square!

And if you think there is a chance of Lando winning wdc, you are delusional.. just do the math

If norris wanted tht win so bad, he would have overtaken the Ferrari and piastri.

Also what was up in the Podium? He didn't even acknowledge this teammate! Get a grip McLaren

[rb9]

so i’ve done the math. charlie outscores max by 11 points every race and outscores lando by 3 points every race, charles will be champion.

so we get lec p1 + fastest lap, ham p2 bc he deserves it, and ver p3 bc i would sell my soul for lec ham ver podiums (and as long as charles has fastest lap it’s still an 11 point difference) FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON WE CAN GET CHARLES LECLERC WDC 2024 🏁🏎️💨🏆🥇

[formula-disaster]

i'm concerned that charles is making mistakes like this in his 7th season in f1. oscar outraced him today - not just his car, but the IQ, the race craft, everything. oscar, in his second year in f1. it's valid to be frustrated by charles's performance, he really didn't look like a wdc candidate. i'm starting to think this is charles's ceiling: good enough, but not one of the greats.

I like to think of it this way.

Sometimes when doing really complicated math,we get so caught up in the complicated stuff; we could do all the steps correct but when we don't get the answer right, we look back and sometimes it's a simple addition or subtraction mistake somewhere.

Does that make us horrible at math? Because we've been adding and subracting since we were at least in the first grade?

No. Sometimes mistakes really are that simple. We get so caught up in the complicated that we miss the simple.

Top drivers have made simple mistakes before, and you're right the disappointment is valid.

But they're human. It's going to happen. Charles has beautiful racecraft. We've seen it at Monza two weeks ago, we've seen it during w2w battles with Max and much more. He's taken uncompetitive cars to places they shouldn't have been in the first place. When he's had a good car and a half-decent strategy, he's made full use of it.

In some ways, he reminds me of Gilles Villeneuve.

Whether he becomes one of the 'greats' in the way you've mentioned, only time will tell. But I do not believe this one race and one mistake (where he's still p2 mind you) in a season which hasn't been the best (to say the least) for either ferrari driver, is an appropriate indicator of his ceiling. Just like Max's current performance is nowhere close to his ceiling.

This got really long I'm sorry.

[chussyracing]

notes app maths IV: top 3 drivers in the standings and their chances to win the wdc

Current top 3 in the standings:

Max: 331 points

Lando: 279 points (52 less)

Charles: 245 points (34 less than lando, 86 less than Max)

Points in remaining race weekends:

6 races remaining:

25 points per race victory = maximum 150 points available (6×25)

18 points for a p2 finish = maximum 108 points (6×18)

15 points for a p3 finish = maximum 90 points (6×15)

1 point for a fastest lap within top 10 = maximum 6 points (1×6)

3 sprints remaining:

8 points per sprint victory = maximum 24 points (3×8)

7 points for a p2 finish = maximum 21 points (3×7)

6 points for a p3 finish = maximum 18 points (3×6)

Maximum available points for all wins: 180 (150 for race wins, 6 for fastest laps, 24 for sprint wins)

Second most points for all p2s: 129 (108 for p2s in races, 21 for p2s in sprints and no fastest laps)

Third most points for all p3s: 108 (90 for p3s in races, 18 for p3s in sprints and no fastest laps)

[From mathematical point of view, anyone from George above in the standings is currently in contention for the championship, meaning from the last week there is a chance of Checo no longer being in contention.]

To win the WDC they need to:

Charles needs to outscore Max by at least 87 points (cca 14.5 per race weekend) and Lando by at least 35 points (cca 5.9 per race weekend)

Lando needs to outscore Max by at least 53 points (cca 8.9 per race weekend) and not get outscored by more than 5.9 points per race weekend at the same time

Max needs to not get outscored by Lando by more than 8.9 points per race weekend and Charles by 14.5 points per race weekend (aka he "just" needs to stay ahead in the standings and do damage limitation on track)

Simplified scenarios with no unpredictability and perfect consistency:

SCENARIO 1:

Charles wins everything, he gets 425 points (245 current points + 180 for all wins and FLs)

Max gets all 2nd places, he gets 460 points (331 current points + 129 for all p2s)

Lando gets all 3rd places, he gets 387 points (279 current points + 108 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Max, 2. Charles, 3. Lando

SCENARIO 2:

Charles wins everything, he gets 425 points (245 current + 180 for all wins)

Lando gets all 2nd places, he gets 408 points (279 current + 129 for all p2s)

Max gets all 3rd places, he gets 439 points (331 current + 108 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Max, 2. Charles, 3. Lando

SCENARIO 3:

Lando wins everything, he gets 459 points (279 current + 180 for all wins)

Charles gets all 2nd places, he gets 374 points (245 current + 129 for all p2s)

Max gets all 3rd places, he gets 439 points (331 current + 108 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Lando, 2. Max, 3. Charles

SCENARIO 4:

Lando wins everything, he gets 459 points (279 current + 180 for all wins)

Max gets all 2nd places, he gets 460 points (331 current + 129 for all p2s)

Charles gets all 3rd places, he gets 353 points (245 current + 108 for all p3s)

WDC: 1. Max, 2. Lando, 3. Charles

there is a change from last week, lando can win absolutely everything and it still won't be enough because daniel took the fastest lap away from him - WDC is no longer in his hands only and he has to count on bad results from max

(not making scenario 5 and 6 for if max wins everything from now on, max would win in both and charles would get p2 if he outscored lando)

[race-week]

sorry if you've been asked this before, but do you have a breakdown of the mathematical possibilities for who can still win the wcc and wdc until the end of the season? or which race it is likely the winners will be decided?

I don’t have all of the possibilities calculated, I might do it after Singapore but at the moment with 8 drivers still technically in contention and 7 races to go there’s quite a few variables at play, especially when you consider engine penalties and potential DNFs

So at the moment I’ll give you how much each driver has to out score Verstappen by each race to take the lead of the championship.

(I’ll try and provide the rest at a later date)

Norris: 59 points - 7.4 (8) points a weekend

Leclerc: 78 points - 9.75 (10) points a weekend

Piastri: 91 points - 11.4 (12) points a weekend

Sainz: 129 points - 16.1 (17) points a weekend

Hamilton: 147 points - 18.4 (19) points a weekend

Russell: 170 points - 21.25 (22) points a weekend

Perez: 170 points - 21.25 (22) points a weekend

So in the case of Russell and Perez, they are ‘just’ technically in contention (mathematically speaking) however they need Verstappen to pretty much DNF from every remaining race (or finish outside of the points), similar cases for Hamilton and Sainz.

I mean statistically speaking, I think the WDC will likely go to the last race or couple of races and I expect that it’ll go to Verstappen, in theory though the it could be sealed by the end of the Mexican GP but that would require Verstappen winning the next 3 races with Norris out of the points (and the others not scoring particularly highly)

I’ll try and do a more in-depth breakdown later and get a spreadsheet involved so there’s less mental maths on my side

[randomfingthings]

*biggest damn sigh*

*grabbing a gun like: *

Can't believe I just might have to be getting a gun (data) to defend lando norris of all people but y'all out here with such mean girl energy I cannot

Stats for lando and charles whom I think personally are more relatable career wise ((non)competitive cars/years in f1) and then oscar pastry because of the annoying drama (not very comparable at all since this is his SECOND year in f1 and already a competitive car 😑)

I have highlighted some key points especially from past two years (era of red bull dominance vs not/current) and work the math however you wish, it is still largely clear that lando is very much capable and very much as "ready" of being wdc as charles (although charles is amazing ofc 😌 he is king babygirl and it is a massive shame he has to fight this hard for wdc no thanks to ferrari cause lawd knows mouse man can drive 😭)

And as for oscar....he is obviously not perfect...not bad....but not perfect and does need time to get better.

[valyrfia]

heyy love your blog btw. as you said in your recent post i would love to know how you computed the simulation on chances of lando winning wdc. thankyou so much!!

Hi! More than happy to. If you know Python I've put this simulation code here, feel free to look over it! For those of you who have no STEM background, I'll try my best to give a succinct and hopefully understandable explanation how I calculated that Lando has a ~4,3% chance of winning the WDC.

I first established some parameters that I chose based on the fact that McLaren is the fastest car and that neither of them have really finished outside of the top 5 for a while–so I gave Lando an averaging finishing position of P2 and Max an average finishing position of P3. I think this is fairly reasonable considering Lando has been P2 for a fair few races now, and I'm assuming that on average Max is the third fastest on the grid behind the two McLaren rocketships.

I then fed this information into my code, and used a bell curve to randomly generate race positions for both Max and Lando. For those of you who have successfully forgotten school maths, a bell curve is a probability distribution centered on a mean (below!)–so Max's bell curve would be centered on 3, and Lando's on 2. This then encompasses all possible race finishing positions! When I ask my code to then give me a position, it will give me a value that corresponds to somewhere in this distribution, so Max for example is most likely to finish 3rd or 1 above/below-but it also allows for a wild card P7 to happen for example!

I then translated this race position into either sprint points or race points, and got positions for the 10 races and 3 sprint races left. I then calculated what the points difference between them would be after those three positions, and if Lando managed to gain 76 points more than Max (the current championship gap) then Lando would win the championship.

I then asked the code to do exactly that last paragraph.....10 million times and counted how many times Lando won the WDC. I divided Lando's WDC wins by 10 million and voilà, that gave me a percentage for how likely Lando is to win the WDC.

Drawbacks to this simulation is that I have no method of trying to throw a DNF in there, or grid penalties. I also ignored fastest lap points because I assumed that they're both equally likely to go for fastest lap so their points from that would cancel each other out. But all in all I did this in about 20 minutes so I really wasn't aiming for a super precise answer, just a rough estimate to gauge how realistic this "championship fight!" kick that media and social media are currently on is. Answer is, it's a possibility, but Max still has a 95% chance of winning this championship so a lot of this sensationalism is pretty unfounded.

[slythereen]

no wait i did not realize the math meant charles could LEAD THE WDC if he wins this i am going to be SICK.

[snoopyracing]

whats the math for lando to win wdc… im actually acknowledging the possibility now and not ignoring it bc of superstition lol