#was camping and hiking near the state borders a few weeks ago

[prussianmemes]

i think listening to your east german / čssr / ssr mid-80s playlist - or other boomer music of choice - while staring out at the fields forests and farms between plzeňský and ústecký kraj is even better than cigarettes and coffee for the soul

[hollycrowned]

Hey Holly, I know you live in the PNW area (or at least have been there?? it's possible i've forgotten which) and I wanted to know if there are any Must See attractions/parks/locations in northern cali, oregon, and washington. I'm going to visit bill for the first time this summer and then spend a few weeks camping around in those states. I know I want to see crater lake, but there're so many cool places up there that I can't decide what else to see

I do live in the PNW! actually, I’d recommend not getting too caught up on ‘must-see’ locations and instead thinking more about what kinds of things special to the PNW you’d like to see the most. do you want to see mostly mountains, or cliffs on the coast, or waterfalls? are you looking to do hiking or fishing or cycling as well as camping? do you want to stay to the west where it’s green, or see the east where it’s more like a desert? those kinds of questions should help you pick the places you’d like to visit.

I wrote this post some time ago about visiting Bill, and one of the sections covers how to hit all the tourist traps Alex and the crew visited on their own tour of the PNW. I’ve visited all of those locations except the Benbow Inn, and each location was worth the visit. there’s also tips and resources on how to plan your own road trip. here are a few things I’ve learned since writing that post:

be prepared for zero cell reception in most areas!

be ready for a lot of driving, especially if you’ll be taking roads that aren’t the interstates. give yourself extra time to get to your destination.

if you’ll be camping, call ahead and reserve a spot. camping and hiking are popular in the PNW in the summer, and campgrounds fill up fast—especially around holidays like the 4th of July. this goes double for hotels.

check local news reports about wildfires and other hazards in the area before you set out for the day.

sadly I haven’t gotten to see any of Washington since I moved out here, but I’m happy to recommend some places to visit in Oregon and northern Cali!

Oregon:

Detroit Lake—since you’ll be in middle of Oregon to visit Crater Lake.  the town is small but it’s got gas and a general store, there’s some campgrounds and hiking trails in the area, and it’s not far from Three Fingered Jack to the southeast and Silver Falls to the northwest.

Mt Hood—I…am a fake Oregonian, and have not actually been out to Mt Hood yet myself, but I can tell you that it looks absolutely unreal viewed from far away. at least getting close enough to see it on the horizon is something I highly recommend. the surrounding forest is massive and very pretty, but you might find it busy in the summertime.

The Columbia River Gorge—this is the canyon that divides Oregon and Washington. lots of opportunities for sightseeing, hiking, and some camping, and there are a few waterfalls along the gorge too. if you want to eat some locally grown fruits and berries (Oregon is famous for it’s berries!), check out the Hood River County Fruit Loop. the area harvests several types of berries in the summer, and there are fruit stands, wineries, cideries, orchards, bakeries, and u-pick farms along one long, looping road just off the gorge that are open all season. check the website closer to your trip for updated info on openings and events.

NorCal:

Trees of Mystery—of all the stops on Alex’s Mystery Tour, this one and Confusion Hill are my favorite. this park is enormous, so plan for your visit to be a couple of hours.

Avenue of the Giants—scenic byway with an entrance just north of Confusion Hill and another just west of a tiny town called Pepperwood. lots of campsites, as well as one of the famous “drive-thru trees.” very likely you’ll see some elk along the way too.

Fern Canyon—if you like hiking and want to camp near the Pacific, try the Gold Bluffs Beach campground. located not far away is Fern Canyon, which is as pretty and green as it sounds.

Newton B Drury Scenic Byway—this byway cuts right through Prairie Creek Redwoods State Park. an easy drive with plenty of chances to stop and stare at those real big trees.

finally, some of the prettiest country I’ve seen yet is a little area in NorCal, on US 199 just outside of Crescent City.  the road stretches all the way into Oregon, but the real pretty part is between Crescent City and the border.

it’s also some hazardous driving, but the nature can’t be beat. there’s campgrounds and fishing spots along the way, too. the 199 connects Crescent City to Grant’s Pass, OR, which is in the vicinity of the Oregon Vortex, covered in the post linked way above (and very worth a visit, especially if you want a Mystery Shack-grade tour experience).

I hope this helps! have fun and be safe on your trip—and say hi to Bill for me!

[rentapartmentsmadison]

Madison Lakes Define Wisconsin’s Capitol City

Wherever you live in Dane County, you are within a few minutes’ drive or pedal of more than 15,000 acres of beautiful, unique lakes. Madison lakes and related activities have defined the area for centuries. Known as the city of four lakes there are actually five bodies of water enhancing nearby apartment living.

Madison’s central city is built on an isthmus – a narrow point of land between two bodies of water. From its founding, the city has been anchored by its two largest lakes. Lake Mendota is the largest. Lake Monona is a close second. Nearby to the south and connected by the Yahara River are Lakes Waubesa a Kegonsa. Lake Wingra connects via a small creek and forms the border and major attraction of the city’s Henry Vilas Zoo and Park – one of the few remaining free zoos in the country.

If you are up to it, you can paddle from the north end of Lake Mendota through the four largest Madison area lakes and on toward Illinois! Note the many green recreational areas on this map adjoining the lakes, too.

Almost any day of the week, all year around, you can find something going on around or in one of these special waterways. Canoeing, kayaking, sailing, water skiing and swimming are obvious. Ice boating is a lesser-known “hot” sport when the lakes freeze over. Sport fishing is also a year around pursuit.

Apartment Living Surrounded By History

The waterways in the area defined the progress of Dane County. They were the highways for commerce and trade. Native American residents and settlers tapped the resource for food and drinking water, too. Today the Madison lakes remain vital links between communities. They provide a rich cultural, historic and recreational legacy. From American Indian effigy mounds to uniquely-designed Frank Lloyd Wright structures there’s plenty to see near the lakes shores.

A 1936 history of the area noted about 1,000 Indian effigy mounds discovered near Lake Mendota. These earthen mounds are linear ridges, conical domes and mounds shaped like animals – bears, birds, deer, panthers and water spirits. On Observatory Hill, within the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus, there is a turtle and a bird effigy. In the UW Arboretum, near Lake Wingra, there are several. Each location emphasizes the importance of the unique lakes to modern and ancient residents.

A few years ago the Yahara Trail Guide was published tracing the flow of water along the Yahara River as it moves from north of Madison to its confluence with the Rock River near Janesville. You can download a PDF and learn more about the unique features near you.

Madison Lakes Cater To Relaxing, Too

Lake Mendota defines the northern border of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s campus. On any given day in the summer you can find hundreds of people taking in the sights. Sitting at the UW Union Terrace, sipping a beverage or enjoying a meal from a nearby eatery. Or, they may just sit and soak up the sunshine – watching a regatta on the white-capped lake. Apartment living near the campus puts these and many more activities just minutes from your front door.

At the city celebrates the 4th of July thousands of people flock to the shorelines of both major lakes to watch fireworks sponsored by several suburbs and organizations.

To the south, Lake Kegonsa State Park snuggles up to the northeastern shore of its namesake lake. It’s laced with hiking trails and features comfortable camping and picnic areas.

Capital Springs State Park and Recreation Area is next to Lake Farm County Park on the south shore of Lake Waubesa. It too has miles of hiking trails. The special space is linked to the city via the Capital City State Trail – and other local bike trails.

The Best Madison Area Apartment Living

Our professional apartment managers look forward to showing you around and answering your questions. Call Forward Management at 608-255-3553 for details on our Madison area sites. You’ll soon understand how apartment living in the Capitol city is unlike anywhere else. You’re always just minutes away from the Madison lakes that define the Madison WI metro area.

Contact Us

Madison Lakes Define Wisconsin’s Capitol City https://rentapartmentsmadison.com/madison-lakes-define-wisconsins-capitol-city/

[pcttrailsidereader]

PCT - Back to Back

I have a special affinity for people my age still walking the PCT.  Perhaps that was my initial attraction to Alison 'Catwater' Sterley's journal.  But, more enduring was the quality of her writing, her sense of humor, and the power of 'yo-yoing' the PCT over the past two years. Alison has been hiking in the woods since she could toddle (her words).  She left her home state of California more than four decades ago settling in Alaska with her husband, Dan. "That’s turned out well," she said, "but the restlessness has never abandoned me. We’re still married, the kids are grown, and somehow Dan loves me still and supports my idiosyncrasies." Several years ago, she walked the JMT. After which Alison observed, "I kept telling myself, and others, “I don’t want to want to hike the PCT.”  But I did.  I really did."  And so she did. These are some of her reflections on her PCT experiences of the past two years. Read more from Alison’s PCT adventures on her blog -- www.alisonsterley.com

I’ve just hiked the PCT for the second time and in the opposite direction from last year. The accumulation of more than 5000 miles on the same trail is a jumble of memory--sights, sounds and emotions.  In 2015 the trail was new and unknown except for the John Muir Trail portion which I had hiked several times and coming from Alaska, I was terrified of the region blithely designated “The Desert,” the first 700 miles northbound.  In 2016, heading southbound, those 700 miles felt like going home, although I was struggling with a slightly crippling case of plantar fasciitis foot pain along with end-of-the-trail fatigue and weight loss.

I was asked a lot of questions on the trail and in the trail towns.  People are fascinated by the whole idea of walking for such a long time.  What made you want to hike the PCT?  Why are you hiking it again? Don’t most people hike north?  Why are you going south?  Aren’t you afraid?  When did you start?  When are you to finish? Not to be rude, but how old are you? Where are you from?

I had done some long hikes before tackling the PCT the first time—the JMT and then a solo JMT yoyo the following summer.  I met lots of PCT thru hikers on those adventures and the idea just kind of grabbed me.  As I told people though, “I wish I didn’t want to hike the PCT, but I really, really want to hike the PCT.”  As ready as I was to finish the PCT in 2015, I almost immediately began dreaming of the next long hike.  When my husband said he’d like to hike the PCT through Washington, to revisit the backcountry places of his childhood, the SOBO plan was born—we’d hike together to Oregon, he would return home to Alaska for hunting and fishing and I would continue to Mexico.  The PCT would look different going south.

Finishing the NOBO last year through Washington was miserable and beautiful at the same time.  I was wet, cold and fatigued most of the time.  I stalled out in White  Pass for three nights waiting for the rain to lift because, hiking solo, I just could not make myself shoulder the pack and hike out in the drenching downpour.  Although the big views in the Cascades were sporadic due to clouds and precipitation, the near views were glorious with Fall red, maroon, mustard and acorn squash colors while the fetid odor of decaying vegetation imprinted in my memory. 

This year, I saw the Cascades in a different season with fresh legs.  As we walked, I knew and kind of dreaded some stretches, like the unmaintained miles between the Suiattle and Methow Rivers.  But the weather was better and I had happy hiking partners Dan and Jackie who were wowed by the country.  I got the big views I’d missed, even while tripping and slipping off the trail and picking Devil’s Club thorns out of my hands.  Plus huckleberries-- ripe huckleberries, in September 2015 and in July 2016, how cool is that?

The PCT NOBO 2015 and SOBO 2016 were very different socially too.  There is a large number of NOBOs, thousands apply for the thru hiking permits, but just a few SOBOs, I heard there were about 100 this year.  NOBO I hiked solo but nearly always had company if I wanted.  SOBO in Washington and California, I had hiking companions, Oregon I was on my own.  Beginning in Mt. Shasta, I hiked with a single companion for 1500 miles and we had very little company apart from each other.  Puff Puff and I met on the trail in 2015 but only camped together a few times.  She is English and in her 30’s.  I’m Alaskan and turned 63 on the trail this year. We arranged to start together at Hart’s Pass in July 2016 for a week and planned to reconnect to tackle the High Sierra together in September. 

We learned a lot about each other in the months we spent together.  She doesn’t appreciate beer, coffee, tea, cinnamon, nuts or certain American traditions like restaurants offering soup or salad with your dinner. Her breakfast is a chocolate Instant Breakfast and maybe a Twix bar. She loves broccoli soup and Sprite.   I love beer, drink cinnamon and honey tea on cold nights, and eat anything with nuts and seeds in it.  My day starts with coffee (she was there in 2015 when I got my trail name in the pursuit of my first cup of coffee for the day) and broccoli soup reminds of changing diapers for my three kids. 

We came to resemble each other in subtle ways.  In Mexican restaurants we both got fish tacos (although her pronunciation of the “a“ in tacos is disturbingly weird, like the “a” in quack.), and in burger places we get bacon cheeseburgers with fries. 

We had some challenging conditions, from heat so intense in Northern California she would reel with dizziness if she had to stand still to a hail storm pounding us with marble-sized pellets that ripped my jacket and pushed me close to hypothermia.  We were snowed on along the Tahoe Rim Trail, between Sonora and Tioga Passes and all day heading up and over Donahue Pass in Yosemite.

To be honest, there were a few times when I wished I was on my own, with just myself to decide where and when to camp.  We did camp apart from each other a bit, for various reasons, and I relished the solitude, the quiet and the freedom of wallowing in my own emotions without having to put a positive or polite face on for my partner.  I often felt like my slower pace and less ambitious miles was a problem for Puff Puff.  The schedule I had devised for myself when packing resupply boxes for my family to send me included a day and a night more food for each stretch than Puff Puff’s planned schedule.  It’s really important to decide how many days you are going to hike until the next resupply but how you break it up while hiking that stretch is flexible—you can make up a few short days with a longer day, for me longer days are in the 25+ mile range but I’m not happy or healthy on a regular diet of 25-30 mile days.

Mostly though, and quite intensely on several occasions, I was super happy to have a trail partner, especially one so easy to get along with.  Hiking the PCT south through California in September, October and November, the trail doesn’t have a lot of hikers.  Having somebody to chat with at the end of the day is precious:  “Did you see that gigantic tarantula?”  “I saw my first coyote!”  Puff Puff and I revisited a lot of the established trail angel operations we’d been to on the NOBO.  The lack of crowds heading south was remarkable.  We were the only people overnighting at Hiker Town at the edge of the Mojave.  Hiker Heaven was truly heaven with just Doug, the caretaker, 2 other woman hikers and the wonderful menagerie of resident animals.  We walked into Warner Springs Resource Center and camped alone near flush toilets and a garbage can—blissfully peaceful compared to last year when dozens of blistered and heat battered hikers pitched tents on every available patch of grass.  We missed Casa de Luna because of the time of day we hiked through, but the Andersons were still openly welcoming to SOBO hikers.

Puff Puff and I often wondered what people thought of our partnership.  “Where are you from?” became a joke between us when I observed that her English accent prompted the question but my answer got the biggest reaction.  “Alaska! You’re from Alaska?!”  We don’t look related, and I definitely look my age.  “I don’t mean to be rude, but how old are you?”  I was asked.  On the NOBO  there were plenty of hikers in the 50+ age group.  On the SOBO, I didn’t see any others although they had to be a few days ahead or behind.  I felt like a freak, although a much-admired freak.  “You’re inspirational!  I’m telling my Dad about you, he needs to get out more,” for example.  People almost always guessed that Puff Puff was from Australia, which she didn’t get.  Me neither, does the West get more Australians than Brits? She sounds like the actors on Downton Abbey, not Crocodile Dundee. 

As I got further south, dropping out of the High Sierra into Kennedy Meadows and the terrain and vegetation changed, I remembered what an achievement getting to Kennedy Meadows was for me the previous year.  This year it began a countdown to the Southern Terminus.  I’d forgotten how close civilization is to the PCT in So Cal—roads, lights, wind turbines, campgrounds, dirt bikers and deer hunters.  Just like last year, I was ready to be done with the hike.  I think I was even more exhausted this time, although the terrain is much easier walking and it wasn’t really too hot during the day or too cold at night.  As I discovered last year, the “Desert” is varied and beautiful, southern Californians are friendly and kind, and the trail tread is easy.  The countdown from resupply to resupply town felt relaxed:  Lake Isabella, Tehachapi, Agua Dulce, Wrightwood, Big Bear, Idyllwild, Julian, the Border.  It was a comfortable rhythm of hiking the dwindling daylight hours 6 am – 5 pm and camping for a few nights, then hitting town for real food and a real bed, and repeat.  I was ready to be done, take my husband for his first trip to Disneyland, and return home to Alaska.  Home for a while at least.  As I discovered last year, post trail blues is real and the best fix is to plan the next hike. 

[bountyofbeads]

A grim border drowning underlines peril facing many migrants

https://apnews.com/2f8422c820104d6eaad9b73d939063a9

I agree with #MichaelBreen, CEO of #HumanRightsFirst, when saying this ADMINISTRATION'S policies are the problem. We have had far more immigrants before but we never detained them as long=overcrowding plus metering those seeking LEGAL asylum=massive delays and desperation.

.@BrookeBCNN @cnnbrk Please post the interview with Michael Breen, Human Rights First President & CEO.

It’s crucial information and people need to hear/see this. SEE BELOW THREAD FROM HIM. 👇😢😭😭Thanks. https://t.co/Mq4VVev6Jn

"I look at this and I see my daughter, who is the world entire to me. Who sticks close to me when she gets scared and wants to feel safe, just like this little girl wanted to stick close to her daddy." 1/7

"This heartbreaking image is a direct result of the Trump administration’s policies. They tried to present themselves to US border officials and request asylum, but couldn’t. Because the administration decided to make that as difficult as possible." 2/7

"Remaining in Mexico, at the mercy of criminal gangs, was more dangerous than swimming. Going home was more dangerous than swimming. So they swam." 3/7

"Imagine yourself in this man’s position, desperate enough to try that crossing with your little girl, convinced you had no other option. And here’s the thing." 4/7

"He wasn’t trying to avoid our immigration courts or even our border camps and detention facilities, the ones without blankets and toothbrushes and soap. HE WAS TRYING TO REACH THEM."

"Let that sink in." 5/7

"If we believe in the greatness of America — if we believe that there is something redemptive and hopeful that America can mean to the world — then surely we believe that we can meet desperate families on our own borders with better than this." 6/7

"Sooner or later, we’ve all got to decide which version of America we’re going to serve. Please help us fight for a better one than this." 7/7

https://t.co/WSnYkcOFhY

He set her on the U.S. bank of the river and started back for his wife, Vanessa Ávalos, but seeing him move away the girl threw herself into the waters. Martínez returned and was able to grab Valeria, but the current swept them both away. @AP

A grim border drowning underlines peril facing many migrants

By PETER ORSI and AMY Guthrie | Published June 26, 2019 | AP | Posted June 26, 2019 |

MEXICO CITY (AP) — The man and his 23-month-old daughter lay face down in shallow water along the bank of the Rio Grande, his black shirt hiked up to his chest with the girl tucked inside. Her arm was draped around his neck suggesting she clung to him in her final moments.

The searing photograph of the sad discovery of their bodies on Monday, captured by journalist Julia Le Duc and published by Mexican newspaper La Jornada, highlights the perils faced by mostly Central American migrants fleeing violence and poverty and hoping for asylum in the United States.

According to Le Duc's reporting for La Jornada, Óscar Alberto Martínez Ramírez, frustrated because the family from El Salvador was unable to present themselves to U.S. authorities and request asylum, swam across the river on Sunday with his daughter, Valeria.

He set her on the U.S. bank of the river and started back for his wife, Tania Vanessa Ávalos, but seeing him move away the girl threw herself into the waters. Martínez returned and was able to grab Valeria, but the current swept them both away.

The account was based on remarks by Ávalos to police at the scene — "amid tears" and "screams" — Le Duc told The Associated Press.

Details of the incident were confirmed Tuesday by a Tamaulipas state government official who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, and by Martínez's mother back in El Salvador, Rosa Ramírez, who spoke with her daughter-in-law by phone afterward.

"When the girl jumped in is when he tried to reach her, but when he tried to grab the girl, he went in further ... and he couldn't get out," Ramírez told the AP. "He put her in his shirt, and I imagine he told himself, 'I've come this far' and decided to go with her."

From the scorching Sonoran Desert to the fast-moving Rio Grande, the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border has long been an at times deadly crossing between ports of entry. A total of 283 migrant deaths were recorded last year; the toll so far this year has not been released.

In recent weeks alone, two babies, a toddler and a woman were found dead in the sweltering heat. Three children and an adult from Honduras died in April after their raft capsized on the Rio Grande, and a 6-year-old from India was found dead earlier this month in Arizona, where temperatures routinely soar well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

The search for Martínez and his daughter was suspended Sunday due to darkness, and their bodies were discovered the next morning near Matamoros, Mexico, across from Brownsville, Texas, several hundred yards (meters) from where they had tried to cross and just a half-mile (1 kilometer) from an international bridge.

Tamaulipas immigration and civil defense officials have toured shelters beginning weeks ago to warn against attempting to cross the river, said to be swollen with water released from dams for irrigation. On the surface, the Rio Grande appears placid, but strong currents run beneath.

Ramírez said her son and his family left El Salvador on April 3 and spent about two months at a shelter in Tapachula, near Mexico's border with Guatemala.

"I begged them not to go, but he wanted to scrape together money to build a home," Ramírez said. "They hoped to be there a few years and save up for the house."

El Salvador's foreign ministry said it was working to assist the family, including Ávalos, who was at a border migrant shelter following the drownings. The bodies were expected to be flown to El Salvador on Thursday.

[johnmauldin]

ROSENBERG: The Market Is a Present-Day Version of Pavlov’s Dog

David Rosenberg is one of the most respected voices in the investing world. His Breakfast with Dave goes out to thousands of appreciative subscribers nearly every business morning.

Rosie is the “Data Meister.” To everyone’s surprise, Rosie turned bullish in a big way six years ago. Now he’s cautious—in a big way—as you’re about to see.

In the latest issue of my newsletter Outside the Box (subscribe here for free), he runs the numbers on today’s economy and markets and comes off as downright incredulous:

It is amazing, I have to say, to see Mr. Market respond to the same [“Trump rally”] language over and over and over. It is a present-day version of Pavlov’s Dog.

More discussion of tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure—and again—the market soars on what really is old news by now. Or should be.

The fact that this is all still rhetoric, with no details or timetable provided, should be a bit worrisome.

Find the full piece below.

Is Mr. Market Playing the Role of Pavlov’s Dog? 

By David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff

Sage words indeed, and likely true.

After all, Herbert Hoover had the biggest honeymoon of all and look what happened down the pike.

The markets tripled under two “socialist presidents” (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama) and slid 35% under the “pro-business” George W. Bush administration.

Even Ronald Reagan’s first two years in office were rocked by a 25% plunge in the stock market after a brief, though powerful, bounce following the November 1980 election.

What you see isn’t always what you get, and it is likely a mistake to extrapolate today’s market performance into the future.

Admittedly, the charts, momentum, and fund flows are all very positive (US equity exchange-traded funds took in a huge $22 billion of net inflows last month).

But some aspects of the technical picture have become muddled—the share of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is at the highest level in nearly four years (a sign of overextension).

As previously discussed in Outside the Box, sentiment is wildly bullish, and while it has been such for weeks now, we have hit some pretty extreme levels.

The Investors Intelligence poll now shows there to be 63.2% bulls, up from 61.2% a week ago—the highest since January 1987 (i.e. when we last saw the Dow on a 12-day winning streak).

The bear share fell a point to 16.5%, the lowest since July 2015 (and the correction camp is down to 20%—one in five see at least a 5% correction coming, even though the declines roughly of this magnitude have happened at least once per year for 88 of the last 89).

The bull-to-bear spread is now in the proverbial danger-zone at 46.6 percentage points, up from 43.7 and just took out the 45.5 nearby high in February 2015. That is an ominous sign, even if not yet apparent amidst the euphoria.

As per Bob Farrell’s Rule #9, in reference to the herd mentality:

When all the experts and forecasts agree—something else is going to happen.

Just because it hasn’t happened yet, doesn’t mean it is not going to.

And of course, that then leads to Rule #4, which also has to do with excessive manic behavior:

Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.

They do not correct by going sideways!

And lurking in the background is the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise rates sooner rather than later.=

Monetary policy is profoundly more important to the markets and the economy than is the case with fiscal policy, though all the Fed is doing now is removing accommodation.

A little bit of history—there have been 13 Fed rate hike cycles in the post-WWII era, and 10 landed the economy in recession.

Soft landings are rare and when they have occurred, they have come in the third year of the expansion—not the eighth.

And valuations don’t matter until they do matter, and we have a market priced for perfection right now—the S&P 500 is trading at 18.5x forward earnings per share, up a full point since Inauguration Day, and only 20% in the past were valuations as expensive as is the case today.

So, momentum, charts, and fund flows are positives; valuation, technicals, and sentiment are warning signs.

Take your pick, but as you do, take some profits as well.

While Warren Buffet likely is prescient, this continues to be labelled the “Trump Rally.”

Once again, the headlines are filled with the same old thing—tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure.

These were the Trump campaign planks, and so when he got elected, the S&P 500 rallied 6.2% right through to Inauguration Day.

He then talked about these same themes, and investors (more likely algorithmic traders), thinking they were hearing something new, bid up the stock market by 4.1% right through to the State of the Union speech the other night.

And then, one day past the address to Congress, the S&P 500 tacks on an extra 1.4%.

It is amazing, I have to say, to see Mr. Market respond to the same language over and over and over. It is a present-day version of Pavlov’s Dog.

More discussion of tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure—and again—the market soars on what really is old news by now. Or should be.

The fact that this is all still rhetoric, with no details or timetable provided, should be a bit worrisome.

What if all this wonderful stuff doesn’t take place until 2018 (or later)?

Tax reform is no easy task; it took Reagan four years.

Relying on private-public funding for infrastructure has all sorts of question marks in front of it logistically, and take Canada as an example of how long the gestation period is—long.

And Trump did seem to tip his hat in favor of the border-adjustment tax, which would benefit exporters to be sure and, over time, incentivize production to relocate to the US, but the initial impact will be to boost import prices, impair household spending power, and risk a consumer-led recession as was the case in Canada when the goods & services tax (GST) was introduced in 1991.

The good news is that the speech was less sinister and dark than on Trump’s Inauguration address, though the protectionist themes were still quite evident, even if emphasized less in this latest go-around.

The ISM manufacturing index really whipped up the markets even more yesterday, which is almost like a case of double-counting since the one thing they both have in common is being measures of confidence.

The headline ISM manufacturing index spiked 1.7 points to 57.7 in February, with 17 of 18 industries reporting growth, and most components rising smartly (like new orders jumping 4.7 points to 65.1, the best since December 2013; backlogs jumping 7.5 points to 57.0; supplier delivery delays up 1.2 point to 54.8—these are old Greenspan favorites, and he may well have tightened intermeeting in the old days based on numbers like these).

The prices-paid component also was elevated at 68.0. Though off from 69.0 in January, it compares to 65.5 in December and 53.0 in September.

The pre-“Great Recession” Fed would have had little trouble tightening policy right away based on this set of data.

But there are just a few nagging concerns.

The first is that the rival Markit manufacturing PMI did not corroborate these ISM results. That diffusion measure actually dipped to 54.2 in February from 55.0 in January.

Second, all these recent juicy ISM manufacturing releases have only managed to squeeze a string of 0.2% MoM gains in manufacturing output. Okay, but short of stellar.

Third, we know that the last time we had such a strong ISM manufacturing print (back in the summer of 2014), it actually coincided with a 5% annualized growth rate in real GDP.

We also know that this is hardly the case this time around, as an epic gap has opened up between the survey data and the actual hard data. Sentiment is nice, but it does not feed into GDP.

And so, despite all the exuberance, the Atlanta Fed just cut its estimate for Q1 real GDP growth to 1.8% from the 2.5% projection it had with near consistency since the middle of February.

[Note from John: The Atlanta Fed re-lowered its Q1 GDP estimate to 0.9% from 1.2% after seeing the BLS report Friday and consumer spending and CPI today. Hat tip: Peter Boockvar.]

I see many forecasters as low as 1.5% and my old shop (BAML) is calling for 1.3% current quarter growth.

There was a time this cycle when such stall-speed was met with investor euphoria because it meant the Fed was going to ease policy further and liquidity is like a drug for the stock market.

But here we have the Fed poised to tighten into an actual economic slowdown.

The fiscal stimulus hope is just that—hope. Size, details, and timing are still open for debate, but what is not is that growth is slipping again.

As in:

Real consumer spending declining nearly 0.3% MoM in January (baking into the cake little better than 1% real PCE growth for this quarter; and this follows the soft tone to core capital goods shipments in January, which has led to downwardly revised capex estimates).

Real disposable income slipping 0.2% MoM. The vagaries of a 0.4% spike in consumer prices cutting into real spending power.

Construction spending falling 1.0% MoM in January after a flattish December.

We know that the consumer is tapped out and there is no more such thing as pent-up demand.

Autos and housing have peaked and spending intentions for both have rolled off their cycle highs.

Not even another month of blowout incentives and discounting could manage to take auto sales north of 17½ million annualized units in February (actually a tad below the 18 million annualized units in Q4, even in the face of the widespread price breaks—one sure sign of a market suffering from consumer fatigue).

The dollar will constrain exports, to be sure.

Government is not a factor.

Commercial real estate is in its own mini-bubble and rising vacancy rates suggest that the impetus from this sector will wane.

So, we are left with capital spending as the necessary lynchpin, which is why Congress and the White House should be in a hurry to pass tax reform and engage in pro-growth deregulation.

Standing in the way of a boom, mind you, is the ample spare capacity underscored by a 75% industry capacity utilization rate.

Plus, with there already being $3 trillion of liquid assets sitting on the balance sheets of US businesses, it’s not as if Corporate America was ever that cash-constrained to embark on at least a mild capital spending cycle.

The arithmetic is daunting.

Between net exports, consumer spending, government, housing, and commercial construction, together they are unlikely to add more than 1% to growth this year and next.

This means that to get to the Trump vision of 3% growth, arithmetically we would need capital spending to begin to surge at a 20% annual rate or more—the sort of thing we have never seen happen before (at least over the past 70 years).

So, good luck with that.

At best, look for 10% capex growth and that will then give us a 2% GDP trend, in line with what we have already seen this cycle (and believe me, I am being very generous here because even seeing 10% growth in capital spending in any given year is less than a one-in-five event).

In other words, nothing will really change.

It’s one thing to have fiscal stimulus when there is pent-up demand, we are early in the cycle, and the Fed is accommodating the largesse (as it did with FDR, with Reagan, and with Obama and did not with Eisenhower and Bush Sr.).

It is quite another story at this late stage of the cycle, following another debt-financed consumer spending expansion (as in sub-prime autos and credit cards), and with the Fed openly signaling its intent to lean against the wind.

So, we may get stimulus—and a lot of it—on the fiscal side, but much will be saved, not spent, as economic agents (us!) look into the future and realize that at a near-80% starting point on the net federal debt-to-GDP ratio, today’s largesse equals tomorrow’s tax liability. As I have recommended before, look up “Ricardian Equivalence.”

With headline PCE inflation gapping up from 1.6% YoY in December to 1.9% in January (as well as the 0.3% MoM bump in the core PCE index, which was the largest monthly increase in a decade), it is reasonably safe to say that we are starting to see some late-cycle inflation pressures emerge (while the core inflation rate remained at 1.7% YoY, the three- and six-month trends are quickly heading towards 2%).

This, however, remains in the context of secular disinflation, and inflation is a classic lagging indicator.

But it is creating a slowdown in the real (price-adjusted) data and undoubtedly will raise eyebrows among the FOMC hawks who are looking at this in the context of a prolonged sub-5% unemployment rate backdrop.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself is probably not too fussed by the inflation numbers, but her recent commentary has been “hawkish” for her (what happened to running a “high-pressure” economy?) as she ostensibly fears the Fed is behind the curve and may have to do more tightening down the road (having waited so long to rekindle the rate-raising process that was started 15 months ago).

Just wait to see what happens if we get the fiscal boost and the Fed raises its growth projections, keeping in mind that as a group, it sees 3% in the fed funds rate as neutral (and we are still 225 basis points away from that mark).

But take it from me, even getting to 2% this cycle is going to end up feeling a lot like 5.25% did in 2007 and 6.5% back in 2000.

In poker parlance, we have a pair of twos on hand to contend with by year-end—2% growth (stuck) and a 2% fed funds rate (five hikes is not out of the realm of possibilities).

I started with Warren Buffett, so it is probably appropriate that I leave you with three of his most pertinent pieces of advice—all the more relevant given today’s runaway market valuation:

Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is.

The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.

Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that “price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when others are fearful.

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[pcttrailsidereader]

More on Records - 2,000 miles, 650 trails, No one in sight

This recent article from the New York Times seemed like an appropriate follow-up to Howard’s post on “Records” on September 27th.  Howard observes the potential for all manner of records but what matters most is what matters to you, the walker. 

Although Carcia’s walking is focused on New Hampshire’s White Mountains and not the PCT, it is a worthy read.  We are not going to pass judgment on his decision to continue despite the recommendations to leave the trail because of COVID-19.  His choice was not made without considerable thought, as the article conveys.

By Leslie Macmillan (New York Times, September 25)

GORHAM, N.H. — It was well after dark on a recent evening when Philip Carcia, a record-breaking hiker, emerged from another 28-mile day in the woods, his legs streaked with mud and crisscrossed with bloody cuts, into a desolate parking lot near New Hampshire’s border with Maine.

Mr. Carcia, 36, has been living out of his red Toyota Yaris on the outer reaches of the White Mountain National Forest all summer, attempting to break the record on an obscure and extreme hiking challenge known as the Redline: a journey through all 650 trails in a guidebook of the White Mountains, for a total of 2,000 miles and half a million feet of vertical gain.

The trip almost didn’t happen. Like so much else canceled amid the coronavirus pandemic, serious hiking has been in doubt. In the early months of the outbreak, venerable organizations like the Appalachian Mountain Club closed their mountaintop huts, and the Appalachian Trail Conservancy emailed hikers attempting the trek from Georgia to Maine in March and asked them to stay home.

Mr. Carcia watched some of his hiking friends get off the trail. He thought about canceling his trip, but then decided to press on. The intentional isolation of hiking might hold some answers for the forced isolation of the virus.

“As I watched people around me slip into this sense of hopelessness, I realized it was actually a good time to do it — to get away from all that and look inward, stay focused, stay driven, remind myself of all the things in this world that are still good,” he said.

By the end of this weekend, Mr. Carcia is expected to finish the Redline after fewer than 100 days — a speed that will likely set a record, once all the details and GPS proof is vetted by the experts who serve as arbiters in the world of intensive hiking. In any case, Mr. Carcia hikes briskly. The previous record for the Redline was 193 days.

Few groups may be as uniquely prepared for life in a pandemic as competitive hikers. Isolation (Mr. Carcia, who mainly slept in his car, went days without seeing anyone) and uncertainty about what’s ahead (some trails on his map seemed to disappear in real life) are nothing new.

“I’m interested in all of it,” Mr. Carcia said of the solitary nature of hiking — and of life in this uncertain moment. “The human experience and all it encompasses — the good, the bad, the light, the dark.”

Like others in Mr. Carcia’s circle of extreme hikers, he works all sorts of jobs to fund his hikes. He’s waited tables at a Ruby Tuesday in Worcester, Mass., where he grew up, and has worked at a hostel in Woodstock, N.H.

The hikes are what drives him. Last year, Mr. Carcia took on a different challenge, known as the Grid. Every month, he hiked all 48 of New Hampshire’s mountains taller than 4,000 feet for a total of 576 summits. It took 319 days, and set a record.

In the first months of the pandemic early this year, officials worried that serious distance hikers — particularly Appalachian and Pacific Crest Trail thru-hikers who spend weeks and even months out at a stretch — might travel in and out of small towns to sleep or get supplies and inadvertently spread the virus. Other fears emerged, too: Hikers might cross state lines without following quarantine rules, or get injured and strain medical resources that the virus was already stretching in small, rural communities.

But state guidelines loosened over the summer, and some hiking organizations began encouraging people to proceed with hikes but to follow Covid-19 safety guidelines, including social distancing and masks. Some mountain huts were reopened for daytime use. Some trailheads and camping sites that had been shuttered were reopened, and trails grew crowded through the summer.

The Appalachian Mountain Club’s stance on hiking during the pandemic, according to Nina Paus-Weiler, digital media and communications manager at the club, is, “This is a positive thing — you should go do this.” But, she added, “we are urging people to be prepared and follow state and federal safety guidelines.” Mr. Carcia wrestled with what to do. “When Covid hit, I like everybody else was forced to stop in my tracks and reconsider,” he said. He knew that he would be in the more remote sections of forest, far from tended paths, far from everyone. In the end, that sealed his decision.

Years ago, when Mr. Carcia first began hiking, he said he wasn’t comfortable “with where my mind would go during long periods of solitude.”

Over years of hikes — he’s walked the Appalachian Trail and Pacific Crest Trail, each 2,000-odd miles — he learned to live with the discomfort that comes from venturing into places where he didn’t know what to expect. That’s why now, he said, “It’s no problem for me to be knee-deep in a river ford at 9 o’clock at night, and not able to see where the trail picks up on the other side.”

He had some years of wandering and some setbacks. He bummed around the West, seriously injured himself in a fall on Mount Whitney. While doing a partial hike of the Continental Divide Trail in Wyoming, he was involved in a car crash and the next day was going home on a Greyhound, battered.

The following year, in 2014, his father died of lung cancer. For weeks, Mr. Carcia slept on the floor of his father’s hospital room. “He’d made the gambit we all make, that we’ll work and make money and be able to enjoy it someday, but he didn’t,” he said.

Loss sharpened his resolve. He moved to New Hampshire in 2015 and started training to break the record on the two biggest challenges in the White Mountains — the Grid and the Redline. “I wanted to do something really big,” he said.

On a recent day, he paused on a ridge to stare down the trail into a valley where he would backtrack 5.9 miles to his car, a distance he could cover in an hour if he ran. Nearing the end of the Redline, he said he’s still sometimes plagued by the “mental digressions everyone goes through,” questions like, will he make it? And will it matter in the end?

Hiking, Mr. Carcia said, “is hard, but not for the reasons people tell you it’s hard. It’s hard because these mountains are mirrors, just like Covid is a mirror, and they force you to look at yourself. But I love that. I love getting into that underbelly and still having the grit to keep moving forward.”