#vividly remember the first week of Trump in 2017
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Quick reminder as we head into Trump’s first week in office. We are about to see an onslaught of executive actions designed to strip of us our rights. We’ve seen this before.
Many of them won’t be legal, many of them won’t take effect immediately, and some of them will be just plain nonsense. Trump alone can’t change the law (yet anyway- that’s Congress) and there is an official government process for enacting most executive actions that works slowly.*
There will be time to fight against these orders—either by stopping them entirely, weakening them, or at least slowing them down.
The purpose of doing so many terrible things at once is to scare us. Is to intimidate us to cede more ground than we need to. Don’t let them.
Stay engaged, stay angry, stay hopeful (or spiteful- me tbh), and—most importantly—stay strategic. Find an organization you trust, follow them, and take action when they ask you to.
(Side note- pick just a few issues to care deeply about and only follow a few organizations you trust. Don’t try to solve everything all the time or consume every piece of news. You WILL burn yourself out and that’s not helpful for anyone. Trust me, speaking from experience. Staying 15% engaged is better than 120% for three months and then 0%).
What we’re seeing right now is a backlash to decades of progress—a dying (and by extension dangerous I’m not gonna lie) breath of those in power desperate to maintain control. They wouldn’t be trying to squash us if there wasn’t something to squash.
TL;DR- there’s gonna be a lot of bad stuff in the news today. Don’t give into panic. There will be time to fight most of it. Stay engaged.
*Unfortunately, there will be some actions the President can control on his own and will take effect immediately. ICE Raids being one of them. Here’s a Know Your Rights factsheet. To learn more and stay informed on this issue, recommend following National Immigration Law Center, CASA, Immigrant Defense Project.
#idk if anyone needs to hear this but wanted to say something#vividly remember the first week of Trump in 2017#it was awful but also there were more opportunities to fight back than I expected#Donald Trump#trump administration#fuck trump#us politics
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I wrote ‘The Art of the Deal’ with Trump. His self-sabotage is rooted in his past.
By Tony Schwartz, Washington Post, May 16, 2017
Why does Donald Trump behave in the dangerous and seemingly self-destructive ways he does?
Three decades ago, I spent nearly a year hanging around Trump to write his first book, “The Art of the Deal,” and got to know him very well. I spent hundreds of hours listening to him, watching him in action and interviewing him about his life. For me, none of what he has said or done over the past four months as president comes as a surprise. The way he has behaved over the past week--firing FBI Director James B. Comey, undercutting his own aides as they tried to explain the decision and then disclosing sensitive information to Russian officials--is also entirely predictable.
Early on, I recognized that Trump’s sense of self-worth is forever at risk. When he feels aggrieved, he reacts impulsively and defensively, constructing a self-justifying story that doesn’t depend on facts and always directs the blame to others.
The Trump I first met in 1985 had lived nearly all his life in survival mode. By his own description, his father, Fred, was relentlessly demanding, difficult and driven. Here’s how I phrased it in “The Art of the Deal”: “My father is a wonderful man, but he is also very much a business guy and strong and tough as hell.” As Trump saw it, his older brother, Fred Jr., who became an alcoholic and died at age 42, was overwhelmed by his father. Or as I euphemized it in the book: “There were confrontations between them. In most cases, Freddy came out on the short end.”
Trump’s worldview was profoundly and self-protectively shaped by his father. “I was drawn to business very early, and I was never intimidated by my father, the way most people were,” is the way I wrote it in the book. “I stood up to my father and he respected that. We had a relationship that was almost businesslike.”
To survive, I concluded from our conversations, Trump felt compelled to go to war with the world. It was a binary, zero-sum choice for him: You either dominated or you submitted. You either created and exploited fear or you succumbed to it--as he thought his older brother had. This narrow, defensive worldview took hold at a very early age. “When I look at myself today and I look at myself in the first grade,” he told a recent biographer, “I’m basically the same.”
Trump grew up fighting for his life and taking no prisoners. In countless conversations, he made it clear to me that he treated every encounter as a contest he had to win, because the only other option from his perspective was to lose, and that was the equivalent of obliteration. Many of the deals in “The Art of the Deal” were massive failures--among them the casinos he owned and the launch of a league to rival the National Football League--but Trump had me describe each of them as huge successes.
With evident pride, Trump explained to me that he was “an assertive, aggressive” kid from an early age and that he had once punched a music teacher in the eye and nearly been expelled from elementary school for his behavior.
Like so much about Trump, who knows whether that story is true? What’s clear is that he has spent his life seeking to dominate others, whatever that requires, and whatever collateral damage it creates along the way. In “The Art of the Deal,” he speaks with streetfighting relish about competing in the world of New York real estate: “They are some of toughest, and most vicious people in the world. I happen to love to go up against them, and I love to beat them.” I never sensed from Trump any guilt or contrition about anything he’d done, and he certainly never shared any misgivings publicly. From his perspective, he operated in a jungle full of predators who were forever out to get him, and he did what he must to survive.
Trump simply didn’t traffic in emotions or interest in others. The life he lived was all transactional, all the time. Having never expanded his emotional, intellectual or moral universe, he has his story down, and he’s sticking to it.
A key part of that story is that facts are whatever Trump deems them to be on any given day. When he is challenged, he instinctively doubles down--even when what he has just said is demonstrably false. I saw that countless times, whether it was as trivial as exaggerating the number of floors at Trump Tower or as consequential as telling me that his casinos were performing well when they were actually going bankrupt. In the same way, Trump sees no contradiction at all in changing his story about why he fired Comey and then undermining the explanatory statements of his aides, or in any other lie he tells. His aim is never accuracy; it’s domination.
Trump derives his sense of significance from conquests and accomplishments. “Can you believe it, Tony?” he would often begin late-night conversations with me, and then go on to describe some new example of his brilliance. But the reassurance he got from even his biggest achievements was always ephemeral and unreliable--and that appears to include being elected president. On the face of it, Trump has more opportunities now to feel significant and accomplished than almost any human being on the planet. But that’s like saying that a heroin addict has his problem licked once he has free and continuous access to the drug. Trump also now has a far bigger and more public stage on which to fail and to feel unworthy.
Beneath his bluff exterior, I always sensed a hurt, incredibly vulnerable little boy who just wanted to be loved.
What Trump craves most deeply is the adulation he has found so ephemeral. This goes a long way toward explaining his need for control and why he simply couldn’t abide Comey, who reportedly refused to accede to Trump’s demand for loyalty and whose continuing investigation into Russian interference in the election campaign last year threatened to bring down his presidency.
As we saw countless times during the campaign and since the election, Trump can devolve into survival mode on a moment’s notice. Look no further than the thousands of tweets he wrote attacking his perceived enemies over the past year. In neurochemical terms, when he feels threatened or thwarted, Trump moves into fight or flight. His amygdala gets triggered, his hypothalamic-adrenal-pituitary axis activates, and his prefrontal cortex--the part of the brain that makes us capable of rationality and reflection--shuts down. He reacts rather than reflects, and damn the consequences.
No importuning by his advisers would stand a chance of constraining him when he feels this deeply triggered. The more he feels at the mercy of forces he cannot control--and he is surely feeling that now--the more resentful, desperate and impulsive he becomes.
Even 30 years later, I vividly remember the ominous feeling when Trump got angry about some perceived slight. Everyone around him knew that you were best off keeping your distance at those times, or, if that wasn’t possible, to resist disagreeing with him in any way.
In the hundreds of Trump’s phone calls I listened in on with his consent, and the dozens of meetings I attended with him, I can never remember anyone disagreeing with him about anything.
The most recent time I spoke to Trump--and the first such occasion in nearly three decades--was July 14, 2016, shortly before the New Yorker published an article by Jane Mayer about my experience writing “The Art of the Deal.” Trump was just about to win the Republican nomination for president. I was driving in my car when my cellphone rang. It was Trump. He had just gotten off a call with a fact-checker for the New Yorker, and he didn’t mince words.
“I just want to tell you that I think you’re very disloyal,” he started in. Then he berated and threatened me for a few minutes. I pushed back, gently but firmly. And then suddenly, as abruptly as he began the call, he ended it. “Have a nice life,” he said, and hung up.
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1.24.17. Illusions.
I’m so sorry to keep talking about politics, you guys, I swear, I am trying not to- I even took myself out to dinner tonight with a gift card I found in the kitchen drawer and had a glass of wine and a sundae in hopes that it would quell the fiery, spewing, Trump-despising lava inside of me, but I just.. I have to get this out.
It’s not even one week in, and we have a president who is trying to install a notorious gas pipeline that, according to him (on videotape, no less), as he is signing and muttering something backhanded about the ‘in dispute’ bill, says, “will add 28,000 jobs.”
So, I thought to myself. “Where did he get that number?” I don’t recall that number. Anyone? 28,000 jobs? And then I found this article from the Seattle Times from a year or two back, which I read today, http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/pipelines-actual-impact-on-environment-and-economy-under-debate/, and I quote:
"The State Department analysis found about 1,950 people would be employed in each of two years of construction [of the Keystone pipeline]. It would take about 50 people to operate the line.”
How are you 24,000 jobs off? HOW? You miserable gnat of a human being. What, did you just pull a number out of a goddamned hat? That’s not even close. A pie crust could be a better president. A doormat is more reliable.
Why are we always lying to each other publicly? Bending facts? Making things up? Why can’t anyone just tell the goddamned truth? This is a miserable existence for all of us; someone just, for the love of God, be honest, so we can have one press conference without an onslaught of 40,000 ensuing articles about what was actually the correct side of ‘truth.’ Was it 65 degrees cold? Or was it 65 degrees warm? Just tell me, for fuck’s sake, that it was a factual 65 degrees unequivocally, and we can move on. ENOUGH.
The article goes on to say, “The State Department, which is responsible for reviewing cross-border oil pipelines, found it [Keystone Pipeline] would at most lead to the extra release of about 27.4 million metric tons of carbon pollution each year. That’s equivalent to about eight coal plants."
Only eight coal plants.
What decade are we in? Is this the industrial revolution? Because the last time I checked it was 2017 and we were looking into renewable energy and electric cars and trying to find solutions to hasten exactly this kind of irreversibly catastrophic environmental devastation upon the earth?
27.4 million tons of carbon pollution. Let’s think about that.
A fully grown brown bear can weigh up to 1 ton. Imagine 27.4 million of these bears, but made of carbon pollution. The state of Texas houses 26.97 million people. Imagine if each person in Texas owned a fully-grown brown bear (of carbon waste). That’s the Keystone pipeline, which we’ve just reinstated. There are only about 30,000 brown bears in North America.
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And now, I am reading about the social media silencing injunction of the Environmental Protection Agency and other Natural Wildlife / Lands Organizations?
What is that? When did we become North Korea? I am 32 and I don’t think I’ve ever had a president issue a ban on free speech in this way. It’s terrifying to me.
By the way, did you see the Badlands Reserve posted these tweets after the edict forbidding them:
And then they had to take it down. Because one week in, this is now our country. Where we evidently do not allow dissension for things like environmental destruction.
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We are going to kill ourselves off.
I’m convinced.
Maybe I sound crazy but I can remember being 8 years old and sitting in front of the television one day when a commercial describing rising temperatures from global warming ran on the television, and it was the first-time in my life I ever even thought of the planet as a living thing. Or our collective mortality as a race of human beings.
I just.. we cannot abuse a planet like this: polluting the air with carbon and contaminating water with radiation (which has now officially spread from Japan to California), countless oil spills, and think for two seconds that we’re not going to destroy our planet, and, as a result, ourselves.
Are we this stupid? Seriously, America- world- are we this ignorant? Can we not think on a global scale as one race? Can we not, for one moment, I beg you, think outside of our snug sofa in our comfy home for two seconds to think about the ground under which our house stands? Where the materials come from that went into making the drywall? And further: where the salmon we buy at the market is sourced? The down feathers in our winter coat? The meat from the hamburger you scooped up at Five Guys today? It isn’t magic. It all comes from some place and, just like most things, I think it’s so much easier to keep the lid on the subject rather than to force ourselves to take a peek inside.. Because it might not be what we wanted to see.. And, well, why would we seek out discomfort?
I think about how the world would probably freak out if they knew the actual acidity of some bottled water on the shelves at the market, or where the tomatoes are grown in the salads at the grocery store. Or worse, how the hamburger paddy in the meat section of the store arrived to that saran-wrapped styrofoam tray. But we don’t look. Why?
I don’t think it’s because we don’t care.
I think to myself sometimes, “The world is just such a bigger machine than I am. The global operation of mass-production. Trade.Capitalism. It’s just so much bigger than I am. I couldn’t escape it if I tried. And even if I know that the pillow on which I rest my head tonight is filled with feathers from inhumanely plucked geese, it’s okay because, there were forty pillows like this at Bed, Bath, & Beyond. So lots of other people are also unknowingly guilty. And then that’s not so bad if all of us do it. And frankly, I didn’t see it in person, so it that really what happened?
I don't know.. I’ll just ask this..
Does it never cross your mind about how life isn’t magic? You know, how things do not just appear as final products? To realize that there’s a process into everything we own or eat or buy or use?
I remember when I started in fashion in New York almost 10 years ago, bright-eyed and excited, dreaming of how privileged I was to bask in the fabulous glow of this creative industry, to watch brilliant artists make beautiful couture fashions, to fly to Paris and drink wine with well-to-do clients on a terrace, and generally embrace that refined existence to relish in polished imagination. It’s not like that. At all. I remember vividly one of my first days on the job, my boss asked me to steam a dress, and I thought she was kidding. I looked at her like a third eyeball grew out of her forehead. I learned soon-on that would be the foundation of my job. Changing hangers, mannequins- to this day, I would be great at a nursing home. And so it goes: Designer clothes? They’re just fabric, fabric that has been bought, sometimes, literally, from Mood like you see on Project Runway, sewn and sold to the highest bidder, by people like me. Paris? 14-hour days of selling, sometimes eating lunch in the bathroom because it was the only 10 minutes I had to myself. Runway shows? 15 minutes long. If I got to sit, it was to fill a chair because I client didn’t make it in time. The whole industry is built on magazine advertisements and wholesale payoffs. It has nothing to do with your own merit as a designer. It’s money. Just, frankly, like nearly everything else. There’s no beauty. And I learned quickly after that that business, no matter the industry, purposely creates veils to seeing/ understanding value because if we can’t quantify it, or scientifically peel back the layers of how something came into being, it means dodging scrutiny, and at the very least, charging more.
I am a realist. Perhaps a little jaded, borderline cynical. But I’m observant. These are not truths, but these are my honest and sincere perceptions of the world around me, so take them for what they are worth. I have nothing to offer you but my humble interpretation of this world in my short time here. And, trust me, I want to save it, too.
And so, after being entirely long-winded, I end with this: Everything we know in this world has an origin, and there is no illusion. As people, we are taught to believe in metaphysical forces, whether they be in the form of Santa Claus, karma, God(s), The Secret or The Alchemist, or beyond. It isn’t a bad thing, but that doesn't mean that we should take everything at face value: the sandwich at the deli wasn’t just always in that refrigerator waiting for you to buy it; consider that perhaps probably was assembled a few days before in a factory by a woman named Maria wearing a hairnet, or a machine, with ingredients sourced from Sysco (and whatever that further entails) and trucked in from a nearby state. And that is scary to think because sometimes the ‘final product’ is so disparate from the original materials as we know them, into which we have little to no transparency, and we just have to trust that people / businesspeople have our best interests at heart.
And so it is with our beloved planet. But we are the ones on the other side, who have the power. Yes, mother earth was there when each and every one of us was born. She silently gave us seasons and ice skating, beach days, and falling leaves. Materials with which we could build houses, fires, and take warm baths. So shouldn’t we take a second to consider her health, too? Even if not for the sake of the planet, for the longevity of all of us? So, take a look. Perhaps at climate change. Maybe wildlife depletion over the past 50 years. Water quality. Overpopulation. The earth is a living thing, just like we are. And though she may be tacit in her love, she is bigger than all of us. And if we don’t take care of her, we will be the ones to lose.
Sincerely yours,
Justinthecity.
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#life#politics#earth#environment#planet#wildlife#epa#trump#donaldtrump#pollution#climate#climatechange#eco#dakota#pipeline#censorship#president#potus#government#share#sharethisblog#like#likethisblog#follow#followthisblog#learn#animal#think#tumblr#justinthecity
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Live: Watch Thursday’s impeachment hearing here
Watch live:
WASHINGTON — The House Intelligence Committee’s impeachment inquiry wraps up its series of public hearings on Thursday morning with two key witnesses — President Donald Trump’s former top Russia adviser Fiona Hill and counselor for political affairs at the US Embassy in Ukraine David Holmes.
Both witnesses testified behind closed doors in recent weeks, but Thursday’s hearings will be the first time Americans will get to hear from them directly and at the same time.
Here’s how to watch:
What time do the hearings start?
At 8 a.m. on Thursday, the House Intelligence Committee will gavel in for the hearing with Hill and Holmes.
How can I watch?
In the live stream player at the top of this page or on FOX4’s Facebook page.
What are the hearings’ schedule and format?
The hearing on Thursday are expected to follow the same format of the previous public hearings.
The committee’s chairman, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff of California, and the top Republican on the panel, Rep. Devin Nunes of California, will kick off the hearings with opening statements.
The witnesses will then be sworn in and get to deliver their own opening statements.
Schiff and Nunes each then get 45 minutes to question the witnesses and are expected to cede part of their time to Daniel Goldman, the panel’s director of investigations, and Steve Castor, the House Oversight Committee GOP counsel.
After that, additional rounds of questioning are possible. Each lawmaker on the committee will then get five minutes to ask the witnesses questions.
Who is Fiona Hill?
A former national security official, Hill served in the Trump administration from April 2017 until July of this year.
In her previous closed-door deposition, Hill told Congress about what she called “wrongdoing” in American foreign policy, and testified that former national security adviser John Bolton had encouraged her to report her concerns to the National Security Council’s attorney. Hill also said US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland told Ukrainian officials in meetings on July 10 they would have to open an investigation to secure a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Who is David Holmes?
Holmes is perhaps best known as the US diplomat who overheard Trump ask Sondland about the status of “investigations” during a cellphone conversation in a Kiev restaurant over the summer.
He told lawmakers in his closed-door deposition on November 15 that he’d “never seen anything” like the call Sondland placed to Trump at the restaurant.
“This was an extremely distinctive experience in my Foreign Service career,” Holmes said, according to a transcript of his deposition that was released Monday night. “I’ve never seen anything like this, someone calling the President from a mobile phone at a restaurant, and then having a conversation of this level of candor, colorful language. There’s just so much about the call that was so remarkable that I remember it vividly.”
Holmes is a career foreign service officer who arrived in Ukraine in 2017. He joined the foreign service in 2002, according to the American Foreign Service Association, and has previously served in Kabul, New Delhi, Kosovo, Bogota, Moscow and Kosovo. Holmes has also served as a special assistant for South and Central Asia to former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Bill Burns and spent time on the National Security Council staff at the White House as director for Afghanistan from 2011 to 2012.
from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2019/11/21/live-watch-thursdays-impeachment-hearing-here/
from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2019/11/21/live-watch-thursdays-impeachment-hearing-here/
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The Sleazeball Peddling Russian Girls to Billionaires
Photo Illustation by The Daily Beast/Photos Getty; AlamyODESSA, Ukraine—Disgust flashed across Kristina Goncharova’s delicate features when she heard the name Peter Listerman. In Odessa, Ukraine’s graceful Black Sea resort, every local fashion agency and beauty contest organizer knows Listerman, a man always looking to hire Russian and Ukrainian models for his VIP escort agencies. And to 24-year-old Goncharova, Listerman’s name brings a whole storm of associations with dubious big-money characters treating teenage girls as if they were animals at a pet store. Even back in 2016, sources familiar with the beauty business were not surprised to see a report on the New York Post’s gossipy Page Six site connecting Listerman to Jeffrey Epstein: “Instead of having his assistants troll local high schools, the billionaire money manager—and registered sex offender—is importing his playmates from Russia.” The article suggested Listerman had been seen visiting Epstein’s apartment and noted a TV interview in which Listerman said he introduced many oligarchs to Russian models, but insisted: “I’m not a pimp, just [a] matchmaker.”Now Epstein is held in a federal lockup in Manhattan, facing up to 45 years in prison for molesting and trafficking minors. And Listerman appeared to be running scared as soon as we started asking questions.Jeffrey Epstein Arrested for Sex Trafficking of MinorsEarlier this month, celebrities arrived here from all over the world for the 10th annual Odesa International Film Festival. Young Ukrainian models took part in the Fashion Weekend events, with photo shoots on the beach. And sure enough, Listerman showed up as well. We found him drinking in the company of some young women by the pool at the Palace Del Mar hotel. (He was easy to track: he kept posting bawdy videos of himself at the Del Mar or the Dacha restaurant talking about... sex.) When asked about his dealings with Epstein, Listerman tried to turn his activities into a joke: “I invented myths and fairy tales to entertain people,” Listerman told The Daily Beast. But when pressed to explain the details about the alleged traffic of teen models, he declined to answer and subsequently blocked a reporter on his Instagram and Facebook pages. What’s certain is that Listerman’s pursuit of potential “matchmaking” talent is notorious, and for decades the activities of Listerman, a Russian citizen, were an open book. He often bragged about his business on Russian TV, referring to the women he hooked up with rich men as “chickens” or “tyolki,” which means heifers, young cows that have never been bred. He also called women his “shaggy gold,” alluding to pubic hair.Here is how he described the type he is searching for in an interview with a Russian tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda, during his visit to the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk in 2009: “My Hollywood clients and oligarchs are sick of emancipated Muscovites, European and American women, who resemble robots. Everybody is sick of these evil women, they want gentle and romantic!”Russian and Ukrainian organizers of beauty contests try to distance themselves from Listerman as if from a contagious infection. Earlier this year Listerman was noticed outside the luxurious Borvikha concert hall in Moscow right before the Miss Russia 2019 beauty contest. “The scandalous matchmaker was not allowed even to cross the threshold,” Komsomolskaya Pravda reported.In the early 2000s, Moscow’s glamorous world of wild oil money embraced the cynical philosophy of “Uncle Petia,” as Listerman is sometimes called: “God created 50 percent of people who are ready to sell their guts and 50 percent of those who just pretend they cannot but secretly they are ready for anything,” he said in one of his interviews. In a 2007 movie, Gloss, by Andrei Konchalovsky, a procurer seemingly modeled on Listerman is named Petia. He checks if young women’s feet are gentle and agile enough before sending them off for consideration as mistresses for “a very serious client in Sardinia.” One of the models Petia sells to an English lord is a virgin.* * *The Beauty Queen Machine* * *For years, Tatiana Savchenko, the founder of Odessa’s first modeling school, has seen the real-life Listerman cruising for her students at fashion shows and beauty contests. “I have heard him approach women at our agency with his usual, ‘Hey, beautiful, I have a client for you!’” Savchenko told The Daily Beast. “It took a lot of work to keep him from tricking our teen models in his traps.”Goncharova, who was one of Savchenko’s students, actually trained from the time she was five to become a beauty queen. She attended ballet, singing, painting and chess classes; she learned to speak French and English, to move gracefully, and answer questions about her ambitions. In a recent interview with The Daily Beast, Goncharova said that “the world’s famous seller of young models to oligarchs”—Listerman—had been writing “What’s up, Bride-to-Be?” messages to her for years. The young model won the Miss Teen Ukraine contest in 2010 and her dream came true: she was invited to take part in Miss Teen World in Houston. That was when she received the first, “Hey, Beautiful,” message from Listerman, who wanted to meet with her. She was 14 years old. Goncharova, a tall, long-limbed Ukrainian model with big doe eyes is gentle, romantic—and horrified to hear about Epstein’s case with such details as the “orgy island” and the alleged connection to Listerman. “I had enough of a brain to turn him down when I was a minor but many girls look for a chance to meet with him, say yes to his offers, as he is paying them much more than €300 [$334], the average of what we make per day working as professional models in Europe,” she said. And Listerman is relentless. In 2016, he sent her private messages on Facebook every few months. “Hi, Mama, how is Odessa?”; “Is Leonardo DiCaprio with you now?” and then four months later: “Hi, Bride-to-Be, have you been successful?” He knew that as a beauty queen she was. In 2017 Goncharova won Miss Tourism International, a contest of models from 20 countries. But clearly Listerman had another notion of success—hooking up with someone very rich.Today, Goncharova says, she realizes that she has been surrounded with girls obsessed with dreams of American wealth and luxury since her childhood. The daughter of a model, when she came to Savchenko’s school, Savrox Models, at the age of five her first teacher was none other than Oleksandra Nikolayenko, who won Miss Ukraine in 2001.Later that same Nikolayenko met Donald Trump’s friend, casino and hotel owner Phil Ruffin. “Ukrainian models and American billionaires found their way to each other at beauty contests,” Savchenko, who had met Trump and Ruffin at several international competitions, told The Daily Beast. “Not everybody needed Listerman’s services.”Made Desperate by War, Odessa's Women Look to Model's Cinderella StorySavchenko went to the Nikolayenko-Ruffin wedding at Mar-a-Lago and remembers vividly her encounter with the future U.S. president: “Donald grabbed me by my waist and whispered compliments that made me blush.”Teenagers from poor Ukrainian regions, where five years of war and economic crises have wrought widespread devastation, imagine themselves escaping to a modeling career, maybe marrying a political leader, a rich businessman, or a foreign sugar daddy.On a recent scouting trip in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, the managing organizer of Miss Ukraine Universe, Aleksey Diveyev-Tserkovny, announced the organizers could turn any woman into a model. “When 2,000 beauties showed up, we decided to just let them quickly go past us so we could pull the most beautiful ones from the crowd,” Diveyev-Tserkovny said last week. “But there were so many beautiful girls that my head was spinning.” When asked about Listerman and Epstein, Diveyev-Tserkovny shook his head in disapproval. “To speak to me about Listerman’s hunt for girls is the same as to speak about porn films to an expert in art-house film festivals,” he said. “Listerman has been chasing me, trying to make friends for a long time, since the beauty contest we organize is No. 1 in Ukraine.” * * *The Instagram Pageant* * *Awareness of the role procurers play in Russia and Ukraine is slowly on the rise. Some young women have spoken out about sexual abuse and suffering. But others are posting their nude and semi-nude pictures on Instagram. “I am not sure how to stop girls flocking into escort agencies—just search for love in Odessa or in Ukraine and you will see tons of young women revealing their bodies,” said Savchenko. “The number of girls interested in beauty contests is shrinking, replaced by an Instagram race for popularity.” Modeling schools organizing beauty contests check every participant’s page on social media. “We play the role of a filter: if some girl posts her nude pictures on Instagram we immediately reject her,” Savchenko added.Boris Nemtsov, the opposition politician and critic of Vladimir Putin assassinated in 2015, wrote about Listerman in his book Confession of a Rebel. Soon after Putin’s first election in 2000, Nemtsov, a Russian parliament member at the time, stayed in the same hotel as Putin and businessman Vladimir Potanin in the French ski resort of Courchevel. “We come downstairs and see around 10 long-legged girls. Potanin and I were in shock. It turns out Petia Listerman, a famous ‘promoter’ brought them.” Nemtsov asked Listerman why he brought the women to the hotel: “But you are also men, after all,” Listerman said, assuming that explained everything.The “promoter” has bragged in multiple interviews about finding Russian model wives for big name stars, claiming soccer champion Cristiano Ronaldo and NHL star Alex Ovechkin met their spouses through him. He claimed he had a contract with Tatiana Akhmadova for half of all her divorce proceedings after introducing her to billionaire Farkhad Akhmadov. None of those claims have been substantiated in any detail.In any case, there’s more—or less—than matrimony on offer for a prospective "bride-to-be."“Listerman’s business is surely not just about marriage—we are aware that there is an international market of models supplied to escorts around casinos, yachts and resorts,” Savchenko told The Daily Beast. It’s doubtful that any of the Russians or Ukrainians that Page Six noticed around Epstein were there to be life partners.The problem of human trafficking from and through Ukraine is huge, and not limited to would-be models. According to the International Organization for Migration, 230,000 Ukrainian women, men and children have become victims since 1991. But Goncharova, for one, thinks that Ukraine’s new first lady Olena Zelenskaya could do great service leading the anti-sex-traffic campaign and increasing awareness among young people. As for Goncharova herself, after a lifetime of modeling, at 24 she is disillusioned and says she is planning to quit the business.Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
from Yahoo News - Latest News & Headlines
Photo Illustation by The Daily Beast/Photos Getty; AlamyODESSA, Ukraine—Disgust flashed across Kristina Goncharova’s delicate features when she heard the name Peter Listerman. In Odessa, Ukraine’s graceful Black Sea resort, every local fashion agency and beauty contest organizer knows Listerman, a man always looking to hire Russian and Ukrainian models for his VIP escort agencies. And to 24-year-old Goncharova, Listerman’s name brings a whole storm of associations with dubious big-money characters treating teenage girls as if they were animals at a pet store. Even back in 2016, sources familiar with the beauty business were not surprised to see a report on the New York Post’s gossipy Page Six site connecting Listerman to Jeffrey Epstein: “Instead of having his assistants troll local high schools, the billionaire money manager—and registered sex offender—is importing his playmates from Russia.” The article suggested Listerman had been seen visiting Epstein’s apartment and noted a TV interview in which Listerman said he introduced many oligarchs to Russian models, but insisted: “I’m not a pimp, just [a] matchmaker.”Now Epstein is held in a federal lockup in Manhattan, facing up to 45 years in prison for molesting and trafficking minors. And Listerman appeared to be running scared as soon as we started asking questions.Jeffrey Epstein Arrested for Sex Trafficking of MinorsEarlier this month, celebrities arrived here from all over the world for the 10th annual Odesa International Film Festival. Young Ukrainian models took part in the Fashion Weekend events, with photo shoots on the beach. And sure enough, Listerman showed up as well. We found him drinking in the company of some young women by the pool at the Palace Del Mar hotel. (He was easy to track: he kept posting bawdy videos of himself at the Del Mar or the Dacha restaurant talking about... sex.) When asked about his dealings with Epstein, Listerman tried to turn his activities into a joke: “I invented myths and fairy tales to entertain people,” Listerman told The Daily Beast. But when pressed to explain the details about the alleged traffic of teen models, he declined to answer and subsequently blocked a reporter on his Instagram and Facebook pages. What’s certain is that Listerman’s pursuit of potential “matchmaking” talent is notorious, and for decades the activities of Listerman, a Russian citizen, were an open book. He often bragged about his business on Russian TV, referring to the women he hooked up with rich men as “chickens” or “tyolki,” which means heifers, young cows that have never been bred. He also called women his “shaggy gold,” alluding to pubic hair.Here is how he described the type he is searching for in an interview with a Russian tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda, during his visit to the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk in 2009: “My Hollywood clients and oligarchs are sick of emancipated Muscovites, European and American women, who resemble robots. Everybody is sick of these evil women, they want gentle and romantic!”Russian and Ukrainian organizers of beauty contests try to distance themselves from Listerman as if from a contagious infection. Earlier this year Listerman was noticed outside the luxurious Borvikha concert hall in Moscow right before the Miss Russia 2019 beauty contest. “The scandalous matchmaker was not allowed even to cross the threshold,” Komsomolskaya Pravda reported.In the early 2000s, Moscow’s glamorous world of wild oil money embraced the cynical philosophy of “Uncle Petia,” as Listerman is sometimes called: “God created 50 percent of people who are ready to sell their guts and 50 percent of those who just pretend they cannot but secretly they are ready for anything,” he said in one of his interviews. In a 2007 movie, Gloss, by Andrei Konchalovsky, a procurer seemingly modeled on Listerman is named Petia. He checks if young women’s feet are gentle and agile enough before sending them off for consideration as mistresses for “a very serious client in Sardinia.” One of the models Petia sells to an English lord is a virgin.* * *The Beauty Queen Machine* * *For years, Tatiana Savchenko, the founder of Odessa’s first modeling school, has seen the real-life Listerman cruising for her students at fashion shows and beauty contests. “I have heard him approach women at our agency with his usual, ‘Hey, beautiful, I have a client for you!’” Savchenko told The Daily Beast. “It took a lot of work to keep him from tricking our teen models in his traps.”Goncharova, who was one of Savchenko’s students, actually trained from the time she was five to become a beauty queen. She attended ballet, singing, painting and chess classes; she learned to speak French and English, to move gracefully, and answer questions about her ambitions. In a recent interview with The Daily Beast, Goncharova said that “the world’s famous seller of young models to oligarchs”—Listerman—had been writing “What’s up, Bride-to-Be?” messages to her for years. The young model won the Miss Teen Ukraine contest in 2010 and her dream came true: she was invited to take part in Miss Teen World in Houston. That was when she received the first, “Hey, Beautiful,” message from Listerman, who wanted to meet with her. She was 14 years old. Goncharova, a tall, long-limbed Ukrainian model with big doe eyes is gentle, romantic—and horrified to hear about Epstein’s case with such details as the “orgy island” and the alleged connection to Listerman. “I had enough of a brain to turn him down when I was a minor but many girls look for a chance to meet with him, say yes to his offers, as he is paying them much more than €300 [$334], the average of what we make per day working as professional models in Europe,” she said. And Listerman is relentless. In 2016, he sent her private messages on Facebook every few months. “Hi, Mama, how is Odessa?”; “Is Leonardo DiCaprio with you now?” and then four months later: “Hi, Bride-to-Be, have you been successful?” He knew that as a beauty queen she was. In 2017 Goncharova won Miss Tourism International, a contest of models from 20 countries. But clearly Listerman had another notion of success—hooking up with someone very rich.Today, Goncharova says, she realizes that she has been surrounded with girls obsessed with dreams of American wealth and luxury since her childhood. The daughter of a model, when she came to Savchenko’s school, Savrox Models, at the age of five her first teacher was none other than Oleksandra Nikolayenko, who won Miss Ukraine in 2001.Later that same Nikolayenko met Donald Trump’s friend, casino and hotel owner Phil Ruffin. “Ukrainian models and American billionaires found their way to each other at beauty contests,” Savchenko, who had met Trump and Ruffin at several international competitions, told The Daily Beast. “Not everybody needed Listerman’s services.”Made Desperate by War, Odessa's Women Look to Model's Cinderella StorySavchenko went to the Nikolayenko-Ruffin wedding at Mar-a-Lago and remembers vividly her encounter with the future U.S. president: “Donald grabbed me by my waist and whispered compliments that made me blush.”Teenagers from poor Ukrainian regions, where five years of war and economic crises have wrought widespread devastation, imagine themselves escaping to a modeling career, maybe marrying a political leader, a rich businessman, or a foreign sugar daddy.On a recent scouting trip in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, the managing organizer of Miss Ukraine Universe, Aleksey Diveyev-Tserkovny, announced the organizers could turn any woman into a model. “When 2,000 beauties showed up, we decided to just let them quickly go past us so we could pull the most beautiful ones from the crowd,” Diveyev-Tserkovny said last week. “But there were so many beautiful girls that my head was spinning.” When asked about Listerman and Epstein, Diveyev-Tserkovny shook his head in disapproval. “To speak to me about Listerman’s hunt for girls is the same as to speak about porn films to an expert in art-house film festivals,” he said. “Listerman has been chasing me, trying to make friends for a long time, since the beauty contest we organize is No. 1 in Ukraine.” * * *The Instagram Pageant* * *Awareness of the role procurers play in Russia and Ukraine is slowly on the rise. Some young women have spoken out about sexual abuse and suffering. But others are posting their nude and semi-nude pictures on Instagram. “I am not sure how to stop girls flocking into escort agencies—just search for love in Odessa or in Ukraine and you will see tons of young women revealing their bodies,” said Savchenko. “The number of girls interested in beauty contests is shrinking, replaced by an Instagram race for popularity.” Modeling schools organizing beauty contests check every participant’s page on social media. “We play the role of a filter: if some girl posts her nude pictures on Instagram we immediately reject her,” Savchenko added.Boris Nemtsov, the opposition politician and critic of Vladimir Putin assassinated in 2015, wrote about Listerman in his book Confession of a Rebel. Soon after Putin’s first election in 2000, Nemtsov, a Russian parliament member at the time, stayed in the same hotel as Putin and businessman Vladimir Potanin in the French ski resort of Courchevel. “We come downstairs and see around 10 long-legged girls. Potanin and I were in shock. It turns out Petia Listerman, a famous ‘promoter’ brought them.” Nemtsov asked Listerman why he brought the women to the hotel: “But you are also men, after all,” Listerman said, assuming that explained everything.The “promoter” has bragged in multiple interviews about finding Russian model wives for big name stars, claiming soccer champion Cristiano Ronaldo and NHL star Alex Ovechkin met their spouses through him. He claimed he had a contract with Tatiana Akhmadova for half of all her divorce proceedings after introducing her to billionaire Farkhad Akhmadov. None of those claims have been substantiated in any detail.In any case, there’s more—or less—than matrimony on offer for a prospective "bride-to-be."“Listerman’s business is surely not just about marriage—we are aware that there is an international market of models supplied to escorts around casinos, yachts and resorts,” Savchenko told The Daily Beast. It’s doubtful that any of the Russians or Ukrainians that Page Six noticed around Epstein were there to be life partners.The problem of human trafficking from and through Ukraine is huge, and not limited to would-be models. According to the International Organization for Migration, 230,000 Ukrainian women, men and children have become victims since 1991. But Goncharova, for one, thinks that Ukraine’s new first lady Olena Zelenskaya could do great service leading the anti-sex-traffic campaign and increasing awareness among young people. As for Goncharova herself, after a lifetime of modeling, at 24 she is disillusioned and says she is planning to quit the business.Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.
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POLITICO Playbook: Trump feuds with LaVar Ball
THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, at 5:25 a.m., from Mar-a-Lago: “It wasn’t the White House, it wasn’t the State Department, it wasn’t father LaVar’s so-called people on the ground in China that got his son out of a long term prison sentence – IT WAS ME. Too bad! LaVar is just a poor man’s version of Don King, but without the hair. Just think..” … at 5:33 a.m.: “…LaVar, you could have spent the next 5 to 10 years during Thanksgiving with your son in China, but no NBA contract to support you. But remember LaVar, shoplifting is NOT a little thing. It’s a really big deal, especially in China. Ungrateful fool!” …
… at 5:48 a.m.: “The NFL is now thinking about a new idea – keeping teams in the Locker Room during the National Anthem next season. That’s almost as bad as kneeling! When will the highly paid Commissioner finally get tough and smart? This issue is killing your league!…..”
Story Continued Below
BREAKING OVERNIGHT — WAPO’S ANNA FIFIELD in TOKYO: “Eight people have been rescued and are in ‘good condition’ after a U.S. Navy transporter plane carrying 11 crew and passengers crashed into the Pacific Ocean off Japan, the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet said Wednesday. The search for the remaining three is continuing. This is the latest accident to befall the 7th Fleet, which is based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka, south of Tokyo, and has endured multiple collisions at sea this year, including two involving guided-missile destroyers that left 17 sailors dead.
“The C2-A Greyhound aircraft was on a routine flight from Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in southern Japan to the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier, which is currently in the Philippine Sea on exercises with Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.” http://wapo.st/2iEil5U
— @USNavy: “#BREAKING UPDATE: Eight personnel recovered following C2-A Greyhound crash and transferred to #USSRonaldReagan for medical eval. In good condition. Search and rescue for three personnel continues. More to follow.”
**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/2lQswbh
MAYBE SO, MAYBE NOT — AP/BEIRUT — “Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri says he is putting his resignation on hold following a request from the Lebanese president to reconsider. In surprise conciliatory comments from the presidential palace Wednesday, Hariri says he is putting Lebanon’s interest first and is looking forward to a ‘real partnership’ with Lebanese President Michel Aoun.” http://bit.ly/2hIZiqj
Good Wednesday morning, and happy Thanksgiving eve. Today is getaway day. JUST ASKING … CAN THE DEMOCRATS keep Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) atop the Judiciary Committee? He is weathering claims he sexually harassed multiple women. One incident resulted in a nearly $30,000 payout. The House Ethics Committee is now investigating, and as of now, that’s where House Democrats have stacked their chips.
— “Another Woman Accused Rep. John Conyers Of Sexual Harassment In Court Filings This Year,” by BuzzFeed’s Paul McLeod and Lissandra Villa: “Another former staff member to Michigan Rep. John Conyers alleged that she endured persistent sexual harassment by the congressman, according to court documents. A former scheduler in the Conyers’ office attempted to file a sealed lawsuit against him this February in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that alleges she suffered unwanted touching by the Democrat ‘repeatedly and daily.’ She abandoned the lawsuit the next month, after the court denied her motion to seal the complaint.” http://bzfd.it/2zsjojC
— DETROIT FREE PRESS EDITORIAL: “John Conyers Jr. has a long and complicated legacy in southeast Michigan and the U.S. Congress. He has been an undisputed hero of the civil rights movement, a legislator of uncommon influence and power, and an aging icon whose felonious wife and sometimes-wandering pace have confounded his place in history.
“But the revelations of Conyers’ alleged sexual harassment scandal and his documented use of taxpayer dollars to bury that scandal, in violation of congressional ethics rules, is less ambiguous. It is the kind of behavior that can never be tolerated in a public official, much less an elected representative of the people. And it means that whatever Conyers’ legacy will eventually be, his tenure as a member of Congress must end — now. He should resign his position and allow the investigation into his behavior to unfold without the threat that it would render him, and the people he now represents, effectively voiceless.” http://on.freep.com/2jNVGYk
— STAR TRIBUNE: “State Sen. Dan Schoen, Rep. Tony Cornish both to resign after harassment claims: Two Minnesota lawmakers announce they will resign on same day following harassment allegations that reverberated at State Capitol,” by J. Patrick Coolican and Jennifer Bjorhus: “A pair of Minnesota state lawmakers — one a DFL senator, the other a Republican representative — announced Tuesday that they will resign from office in the wake of sexual harassment allegations. Word of the resignations of Sen. Dan Schoen and Rep. Tony Cornish came within two hours of each other, capping a stunning sequence of events that vividly demonstrated a new awareness of what many insiders say has been a long-standing tolerance of mistreatment of women working at Minnesota’s Capitol. Both men had been under pressure from leaders of their parties to resign.” http://strib.mn/2hUsmif
WAPO — CAROL LEONNIG, DAN LAMOTHE and JULIE TATE — “White House military personnel removed amid investigation into contacts with foreign women during Trump’s Asia trip”: “The service members worked for the White House Communications Agency, a specialized military unit that helps provide the president, vice president, Secret Service and other officials with secure communications. The military is scrutinizing three Army noncommissioned officers who allegedly broke curfew during Trump’s trip to Vietnam this month, officials said.” http://wapo.st/2A2r0Xl
EEK — PHILA. INQUIRER: “U.S. Rep. Bob Brady’s emails searched as FBI probe nears critical point,” by Jeremy Roebuck: “In their clearest language to date, federal authorities have accused U.S. Rep. Robert Brady of leading a criminal conspiracy to hide a $90,000 payment they say he made to persuade a 2012 primary opponent to drop out of the race, newly unsealed court records show.
“The claim — tucked into a Nov. 1 search warrant affidavit unsealed Friday — alleges the congressman was an active participant in a scheme that has already elicited a guilty plea from Brady’s one-time challenger, former Philadelphia Municipal Court Judge Jimmie Moore, and led to indictments against Brady aides Ken Smukler and Donald ‘D.A.’ Jones. Agents and prosecutors filed the affidavit to persuade a judge to approve a search of [email protected], a personal email account used by Brady. It also lays out the potential charges that Brady might face should he be indicted — a list that includes wire fraud, lying to the FBI and making an illegal campaign contribution.” http://bit.ly/2zZisT5
NEW TRAILER — @FinalYearFilm: “.@FinalYearFilm trailer: a look at the inner workings of the Obama Administration as they prepare to leave power after 8 years #TheFinalYear” http://bit.ly/2hUr72I
****** A message from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation: As Washington debates tax reform, there’s talk of tax cuts that will give trillions of dollars back to American taxpayers. That sounds great. But if these tax cuts aren’t paid for, future generations will be stuck with the bill. Congress, tax reform should grow the economy. Not the debt. www.pgpf.org/tax-reform. ******
REMINDER, FROM SEUNG MIN KIM (@seungminkim): “December in Congress: –Finishing tax overhaul –Averting shutdown –Ds demand DACA fix –Section 702 expires –Alabama Senate –60-day window for Iran sanctions snapback ends –More re: sexual harassment on Hill”. AND … a House Democrat has promised a vote to impeach President Trump. Republicans and Democrats are working behind the scenes on a massive package to avert spending caps.
JARED WATCH — “Special Counsel Mueller Probes Jared Kushner’s Contacts With Foreign Leaders,” by WSJ’s Peter Nicholas, Aruna Viswanatha and Rebecca Ballhaus: “Robert Mueller’s investigators are asking questions about Jared Kushner’s interactions with foreign leaders during the presidential transition, including his involvement in a dispute at the United Nations in December, in a sign of the expansive nature of the special counsel’s probe of Russia’s meddling in the election, according to people familiar with the matter. The investigators have asked witnesses questions about the involvement of Mr. Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and a senior White House adviser, in a controversy over a U.N. resolution passed Dec. 23 that condemned Israel’s construction of settlements in disputed territories …
“Another element of Mr. Mueller’s probe has focused on whether the president obstructed justice in the May firing of James Comey, the former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Mr. Mueller’s prosecutors have asked witnesses detailed questions about Mr. Kushner’s views of Mr. Comey and whether Mr. Kushner was in favor of firing him or had staked out a position, said the people familiar with the matter.” http://on.wsj.com/2zWLAue
— FUN READ – “De Blasio and his administration had a warm relationship with Kushner, emails show,” by Laura Nahmias: “Long before Mayor Bill de Blasio started to define New York City as the nexus of anti-Donald Trump sentiment, the mayor and other senior officials in his administration maintained friendly relations with the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his daughter, Ivanka Trump, emails obtained through a Freedom of Information request show. The emails, spanning from de Blasio’s first year in office in 2014 through the spring of 2017, show de Blasio’s occasionally fawning overtures to Kushner and others in the Trump Organization in the weeks after the 2016 election. …
“‘Jared, I hope you and your family had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and a little break from the swirl of activity these last few weeks have brought,’ the mayor wrote on Nov. 26, 2016. … He added: ‘Finally, whenever you have a moment for a drink or a cup of coffee, I’d love to spend a little time with you. I can only imagine how tough your schedule has become, and I’m happy to accommodate whatever time and place works for you. Much appreciated — Bill.’ … Kushner[’s] emails were punctuated with exclamation marks, smiley faces and general sunniness.” http://politi.co/2AnUfH5
THE PRESIDENT’S CANDIDATE: ROY MOORE — “Trump privately doubted Moore’s female accusers,” by Alex Isenstadt: “President Donald Trump’s near-endorsement of Alabama Republican Roy Moore followed days of behind-the-scenes talks in which he vented about Moore’s accusers and expressed skepticism about their accounts. During animated conversations with senior Republicans and White House aides, the president said he doubted the stories presented by Moore’s accusers and questioned why they were emerging now, just weeks before the election … The White House advisers said the president drew parallels between Moore’s predicament and the one he faced just over a year ago when, during the final weeks of the 2016 campaign, Trump confronted a long line of women who accused him of harassment. He adamantly denied the claims.” http://politi.co/2jOtjsN
–“Roy Moore Dated ‘Younger Ladies’ For Their ‘Purity,’ His Pastor Friend Says,” by TPM’s Cameron Joseph: “A prominent right-wing preacher who appeared alongside Senate candidate Roy Moore at a campaign rally just days ago said that Moore dated teen girls because of their ‘purity’ and because when he got back from Vietnam there weren’t any women his age left to date. Pastor Flip Benham told a local Alabama radio show on Monday that there was nothing wrong with Moore dating teenage girls.” http://bit.ly/2hLgcEN
–@CNN: “Roy Moore campaign strategist Dean Young: ‘We believe Judge Moore. We don’t believe these women. It’s just that simple. And y’all can keep trotting them out if you want to, but we’re not going to talk about that.’” http://bit.ly/2A2EO3V
WHAT STEPHEN MILLER IS READING — “How Trump is building a border wall that no one can see,” by WaPo’s Maria Sacchetti and Nick Miroff: “[I]n a systematic and less visible way, his administration is following a blueprint to reduce the number of foreigners living in the United States — those who are undocumented and those here legally — and overhaul the U.S. immigration system for generations to come. Across agencies and programs, federal officials are wielding executive authority to assemble a bureaucratic wall that could be more effective than any concrete and metal one. … The administration has moved to slash the number of refugees, accelerate deportations and terminate the provisional residency of more than a million people, among other measures.” http://wapo.st/2zdOgk5
WORLD ORDER — “Trump cedes Syrian postwar planning to Putin: Experts and U.S. officials say the real fight now is about a regional power struggle playing out in the country,” by Michael Crowley: “Six months after President Donald Trump ordered an airstrike against a Syrian government airbase, an act his aides said would give the U.S. renewed leverage across the Middle East, he is increasingly a bystander as Russian President Vladimir Putin takes the lead in shaping postwar Syria.
“On Wednesday, Putin will host the presidents of Iran and Turkey in the resort city of Sochi — one of several Russian-brokered meetings the U.S. will not attend as the Syrian conflict winds down. … ‘Putin has won’ in Syria, said Ilan Goldenberg, who worked on Middle East issues at the Pentagon and State Department under President Barack Obama. … [Trump] has said privately that he considers Syria to be Obama’s failure and that he sees little the U.S. can do about it now.” http://politi.co/2mPVzwp
NEW STYLE — “How Trump’s Hands-Off Approach to Policing Is Frustrating Some Chiefs,” by NYT’s Steve Eder, Ben Protess and Shaila Dewan: “Since President Trump took office, for example, the Justice Department has not entered into a single court-monitored consent decree with a troubled police department, even in towns with widespread constitutional violations, records show. It has also ordered reviews of existing consent decrees — which are a tougher, more punitive alternative to the collaborative reform initiative — negotiated under President Barack Obama’s Justice Department.
“The changes, designed to ease pressure on law enforcement, have actually encountered some resistance from police chiefs in cities that participated in the programs. And those chiefs work not only in big-city Democratic strongholds, but also in places like Spokane, which has a Republican mayor and is the largest city in a county that voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump.” http://nyti.ms/2zqCl6m
— “FCC’s next step on net neutrality: Blocking the states: Chairman Ajit Pai seeks to keep states from stepping in to regulate the internet,” by Margaret Harding McGill: “The Obama administration’s net neutrality rules met their all-but-certain demise Tuesday as [FCC] Chairman Ajit Pai outlined a plan to repeal them — while making sure states can’t impose their own regulations to fill the void. Pai will release his proposal on Wednesday with broad support on the Republican-controlled FCC, leaving supporters of the 2015 policy with little recourse except to fight back in the courts. … [P]roponents of the current rules question whether the FCC has the authority to block states from issuing their own rules, especially when the agency is paring back its oversight over internet service providers in the order.” http://politi.co/2zYe3QU
WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD vs. TRUMP – “Trump’s Dubious Trust-Busting”: “The lawsuit [to block the AT&T/Time Warner merger] misconstrues markets and undermines the rule of law—whether or not it was inspired by the White House. … Justice’s even stranger claim is that the merger would ‘impede disruptive competition’ from ‘emerging online competition.’ Emerging? That adjective will surprise Netflix, with its 110 million subscribers and more than two dozen original shows; or Amazon, with its original TV series and movies and its 90 million Prime members. … Mr. Trump said again on Tuesday that ‘I’ve always felt that was a deal that’s not good for the country,’ adding that ‘I’m not going to get involved. It’s litigation.’ Yet uttering his opinion feeds inferences of political interference and a willingness to bend antitrust law in ways that undermine business confidence.” http://on.wsj.com/2zVRV9H
A BOOST FOR TAX REFORM — TOP-ED – SEN. LISA MURKOWSKI in the Fairbanks Daily News Miner, “Alaskan senator supports free choice for health care”: “I have always supported the freedom to choose. I believe that the federal government should not force anyone to buy something they do not wish to buy in order to avoid being taxed. That is the fundamental reason why I opposed the Affordable Care Act from its inception and also why I cosponsored a bill to repeal the individual mandate tax penalty starting as early as 2013. And that is why I support the repeal of that tax today.” http://bit.ly/2hUm1Dt
REPUBLICANS VS. REALTORS, via NYT’s Conor Dougherty and Ben Casselman: For decades, the real estate industry has benefited from generous tax deductions that raise home values by making it cheaper for people to own property and shoulder their local taxes. Now, as the Republican tax plan makes its way through Congress, the industry is worried that the fallout will harm its business by making homeownership less valuable. …
“‘We don’t consider ourselves to be Republicans or Democrats,’ said Linda Jay, chief executive of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors in central California. ‘We are the Realtor party.’ Last week, Ms. Jay and other agents congregated in front of the local office of Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, holding signs and chanting, ‘Save homeownership.’ ‘We know he has a tough job to do,’ she said. ‘But we certainly are not going to shy away from letting him know what our feelings are.’” http://nyti.ms/2zYyuga
YIKES – “Uber Paid Hackers to Delete Stolen Data on 57 Million People,” by Bloomberg’s Eric Newcomer: “Hackers stole the personal data of 57 million customers and drivers from Uber Technologies Inc., a massive breach that the company concealed for more than a year. This week, the ride-hailing firm ousted its chief security officer and one of his deputies for their roles in keeping the hack under wraps, which included a $100,000 payment to the attackers. Compromised data from the October 2016 attack included names, email addresses and phone numbers of 50 million Uber riders around the world, the company told Bloomberg on Tuesday. The personal information of about 7 million drivers was accessed as well, including some 600,000 U.S. driver’s license numbers.” https://bloom.bg/2AmW72G
SUNDAY SO FAR – NBC’s “Meet the Press”: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)
THE PRESIDENT is in Palm Beach and has nothing public scheduled for the day.
— PALM BEACH POST: “President Donald Trump arrived at Mar-a-Lago Tuesday night for a Thanksgiving visit and appeared energized by a crowd of more than 100 supporters who welcomed him and first lady Melania Trump at Palm Beach International Airport. …
“In a few of his previous visits, Trump briefly greeted the supporters who gathered at the airport for Air Force One arrivals. But on Tuesday, he spent about 18 minutes with the crowd signing autographs, shaking hands and talking with his fans.
“Trump also accepted an oil painting of himself from 90-year-old Bea Doone-Merena, a Boca Raton artist who brought two larger-than-life portraits of the president to the airport. Trump kept a stern-faced likeness of himself in a dark suit and red tie, and he autographed the other painting, which depicted him in a red ‘Make America Great Again’ hat, and gave it back to Doone-Merena.” http://bit.ly/2Am48VK
PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump and their son Barron participate in a ceremony to pardon Drumstick the turkey with National Turkey Federation Chairman Carl Wittenburg and his family in the Rose Garden at the White House on Nov. 21. Following the presidential pardon, the 40-pound White Holland breed will reside at his new home “Gobbler’s Rest” at Virginia Tech. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
HOLIDAY CHEER — “Manafort and Gates are sprung for holiday as bail talks drag on,” by Josh Gerstein: “Former Trump campaign officials Paul Manafort and Rick Gates are being sprung from home detention for the Thanksgiving holiday, but the decision highlights how negotiations over bail arrangements for the two men are dragging on much longer than anticipated. At a hearing on Nov. 6, a prosecutor from special counsel Robert Mueller’s team, which is looking into Russian interference in the 2016 election, predicted that discussions about a bail package for Manafort would be wrapped up within 48 hours.
“‘I think, for Mr. Manafort, we’re getting close,’ prosecutor Greg Andres told U.S. District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson. Yet three weeks after Manafort and Gates were arraigned and nearly two weeks after Andres laid out that timeline, there’s still no sign of a deal.” http://politi.co/2Am6S5E
JOE POMPEO in Vanity Fair, “The Times is ‘Torn’ About Whether Glenn Thrush Should Lose His Job Over Sexual-Misconduct Allegation”: “At the Times, known for occasionally obsessive self-reflection, the news prompted enormous anxiety. The news organization that fomented an extraordinary cultural upheaval was suddenly tasked with managing through it. The newsroom, like many others, is on edge. ‘People are feeling embarrassed, discouraged, and vulnerable,’ said one veteran Times editor. … Among the multiple current and former Times employees I spoke with — including men and women, managers and subordinates — people were wrestling with whether the allegations against Thrush warranted his termination — a question perhaps complicated by the fact that most of the events occurred prior to his hiring, and did not involve any Times colleagues.” http://bit.ly/2hSflFS
MULVANEY’S SCHEDULE — “Koch Lobbyists and Opus Dei — Who’s Dropping in on Trump Budget Czar Mick Mulvaney?” by ProPublica’s Justin Elliott: “One of President Donald Trump’s top cabinet officials has met with a long list of lobbyists, corporate executives and wealthy people with business interests before the government, according to calendars the Trump administration fought to keep secret. The calendars for Mick Mulvaney, the former South Carolina congressman who now runs the White House Office of Management and Budget, offer a glimpse of who has access to the highest levels of the Trump administration. Among those visiting Mulvaney: Trump friend and casino magnate Steve Wynn; a flurry of officials from the conservative Heritage Foundation; a string of health care and Wall Street CEOs; lobbyists for Koch Industries; a cryptocurrency evangelist; and a prominent member of the Catholic group Opus Dei.” http://bit.ly/2zrk4WE … The calendars http://bit.ly/2iGyjwx
****** A message from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation: Washington is debating tax reform. There’s talk of substantial tax cuts that will give trillions of dollars back to American taxpayers. That sounds great. But if these tax cuts aren’t paid for, future generations will be stuck with the bill. Congress is right to pursue tax reform – the code is outdated, complex and unfair. Tax reform done right should be permanent, because businesses and individuals need certainty to plan and invest. It should be based on realistic, independent projections and assumptions about the effect on our economy and our fiscal outlook. And it should enjoy bipartisan support, so that it’s durable over time. Lawmakers should use the valuable opportunity presented by tax reform both to improve our fiscal outlook and strengthen the economy at the same time. Congress, tax reform should grow the economy. Not the debt. Learn more at www.pgpf.org/tax-reform. ******
PUTIN’S FAVORITE CONGRESSMAN — “He’s a Member of Congress. The Kremlin Likes Him So Much It Gave Him a Code Name,” by NYT’s Nick Fandos: “For two decades, Representative Dana Rohrabacher has been of value to the Kremlin, so valuable in recent years that the F.B.I. warned him in 2012 that Russia regarded him as an intelligence source worthy of a Kremlin code name. … As revelations of Russia’s campaign to influence American politics consume Washington, Mr. Rohrabacher, 70, who had no known role in the Trump election campaign, has come under political and investigative scrutiny. The F.B.I. and the Senate Intelligence Committee are each seeking to interview him about an August meeting with Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, Mr. Rohrabacher said. The special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, is said to be interested in a meeting he had last year with Michael T. Flynn, Mr. Trump’s short-lived national security adviser.” http://nyti.ms/2B2mmYv
ON THE PENINSULA — “Cold War drama caught on video as N. Korean soldier escapes,” by AP’s Foster Klug in Seoul: “It’s 3:11 p.m. on a cold, gray day on the North Korean side of the most heavily armed border in the world, and a lone soldier is racing toward freedom. His dark olive-green jeep speeds down a straight, tree-lined road, past drab, barren fields and, headlights shining, across the replacement for the Bridge of No Return, which was used for prisoner exchanges during the Korean War. The shock of soldiers watching the jeep rush by is palpable from the video released Wednesday, and no wonder: They’re beginning to realize that one of their comrades is defecting to the South. They sprint after him. … Forty minutes later, the video has switched to infrared to show the heat signatures of two South Korean soldiers as they crawl on their hands and knees, using a wall as cover, toward the prone defector. They grab hold of the defector and drag him to safety.” http://bit.ly/2hSViHn … 2-min. video http://bit.ly/2mRJLKd
HOLLYWOODLAND — “John Lasseter Taking Leave of Absence From Pixar Amid ‘Missteps,’” by the Hollywood Reporter’s Kim Masters: “Disney Animation head John Lasseter is taking a leave of absence from Pixar after acknowledging ‘painful’ conversations and unspecified ‘missteps,’ he wrote Tuesday in a memo to staff, obtained by The Hollywood Reporter. Lasseter’s statement arrived as THR was preparing a story detailing alleged misconduct by the executive at Disney/Pixar. Lasseter is best known as one of the founders of Pixar, which began as part of the graphics group at Lucasfilm.” http://bit.ly/2hKRaWo … The story http://bit.ly/2A1Dpe0
VALLEY TALK — “Facebook (Still) Letting Housing Advertisers Exclude Users by Race,” by ProPublica’s Julia Angwin, Ariana Tobin and Madeleine Varner: “In February, Facebook said it would step up enforcement of its prohibition against discrimination in advertising for housing, employment or credit. But our tests showed a significant lapse in the company’s monitoring of the rental market. Last week, ProPublica bought dozens of rental housing ads on Facebook, but asked that they not be shown to certain categories of users, such as African Americans, mothers of high school kids, people interested in wheelchair ramps, Jews, expats from Argentina and Spanish speakers. … Every single ad was approved within minutes. … Under its own policies, Facebook should have flagged these ads, and prevented the posting of some of them.” http://bit.ly/2jdyP4q
SPOTTED at Dead and Company last night at the Capital One Arena (formerly the Verizon Center): David Dixon, Tim Curran, Josh Lahey, Hadar Susskind, Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh, Ken Baer, Dennis Alpert, Bob Costa … Susan Page and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) separately at “Mean Girls” last night … Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) on yesterday morning’s 8:45 a.m. American Airlines flight 681 from DCA to Charlotte.
ENGAGED – TYLER LAW, DCCC national press secretary, proposed to EMMA ECKERSTROM, a middle-school English teacher for KIPP D.C. “The couple met working on Tim Kaine’s 2012 Senate campaign in Richmond. … Emma and Tyler’s families spent their first Thanksgiving together out in Oakland … (where Tyler is from) so he knew it was the right time to propose, with family there to celebrate. Tyler planned a day of wine tasting in Napa at the same wineries where they went to five years ago when Emma first came to visit Tyler in California. Tyler found a secluded spot next to the vineyard, got down on one knee, and Emma said yes.” Instapic http://bit.ly/2hSf7P2
BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Cassie Spodak, producer for CNN digital politics. How she’s celebrating: “I’m doing some volunteer work with my family at Martha’s Table, which is kind of a tradition. But I’ll also celebrate my birthday over the weekend with my fiancé and some of my oldest friends from high school who will be in town, in one of my favorite places in the city: my apartment’s patio with a new fire pit.” Read her Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2jM6ExB
BIRTHDAYS: ABC News’ Matthew Mosk … Bettina Inclán Agen … Shefali Razdan Duggal (hat tip: Jon Haber) … Matt Strawn … Scott Wong, senior staff writer for The Hill and a Politico alum … Ned Price, New America fellow, GW professor and NBC contributor and a CIA and NSC alum … Pat Cunnane, writer for ABC’s “Designated Survivor” and an Obama WH alum … Hannah August, director of communications for Women Deliver and a Michelle Obama alum … Jeff Tiller … Barney Keller, EVP at Jamestown Associates … Andrew Stern … Michael J. Szanto … Martin Burns … Robert Christie, VP of international media at Alibaba Group and an NYT alum … Roger Fransecky … Marshall Schoenthal is 44 … Anne Shoup … Jonathan Kubakundimana … Politico’s Sarah O’Neill … TJ Cholnoky … Zoe Schlag … Josh Goldstein … IBM’s Sammy Jordan, who was the captain of her debate team at GMU … Tim R. Cohen …
… Yarden Golan, chief of staff of Israel’s Embassy in Washington … Jessica Sara Turtletaub of theSkimm and a Bloomberg alum … Rob Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (h/t Samantha Greene) … Welles Orr … Natasha Lennard … Meena Ganesan … James Williams, president of Engage Cuba, is 34 … Alexa Lucas … Lauren Pastarnack … Jon Adams, NRSC’s digital director … Brian Francis Kelley … Harry Siegel, columnist at the NY Daily News and senior editor at The Daily Beast … Bush 43 WH alum Missy DeCamp … Ryan Fitzgerald … Barbara Cameron … Craig Gilbert (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
****** A message from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation: Washington is debating tax reform. There’s talk of substantial tax cuts that will give trillions of dollars back to American taxpayers. That sounds great. But if these tax cuts aren’t paid for, future generations will be stuck with the bill. Congress is right to pursue tax reform – the code is outdated, complex and unfair. Tax reform done right should be permanent, because businesses and individuals need certainty to plan and invest. It should be based on realistic, independent projections and assumptions about the effect on our economy and our fiscal outlook. And it should enjoy bipartisan support, so that it’s durable over time. Lawmakers should use the valuable opportunity presented by tax reform both to improve our fiscal outlook and strengthen the economy at the same time. Congress, tax reform should grow the economy. Not the debt. Learn more at www.pgpf.org/tax-reform. ******
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A DAY TO REMEMBER
First, let me welcome you to today, June 21, 2017. Secondly, let me wish you a Happy "Hump Day." You're still alive and maybe kicking. If so, I'm glad to hear it. Although I've lost personal contact with most of you, I still want to know that you're enjoying your time here on "Planet Earth." If not, pay a visit to a General Practitioner before the powers to be shut down our Healthcare System. If you have the time and inclination, you can contact me via text, phone, email or smoke signal, and let me know what's happening in your life. I can assure you that none of what you tell me will appear in my daily rant. Enjoy your ride on your hairy beast and remember to smile, at least fifteen minutes/day.
Now it's "Howdy Doody Time," once again. Oops, just kidding. Please see below, some news items that might be of interest.
- Reporters barred From Events for both Georgia Special-Election Candidates - Daniel Day-Lewis retires as an actor - Cosby Trial Puts Focus on How the System Treats Women - Brooklyn Borough President says who will make available $660,000 to repair and refurbish the Academy Building on the Campus of Erasmus Hall High School - White House: Trump To Make Announcement On Comey Tapes This Week - Newt Gingrich the "Hypocrisy Pioneer," is at again - President (I use this word loosely) Trump's FBI Nominee deleted reference to work with "Putinville." - Senate plan for Medicaid could lead to more pain in the future (The New York Times and Huffington Post serve as my source of the vital information above.)
My Sports Report continues to bring tears to my eyes and pain to my heart. The New York Mets lost once again to the boys on the "Left Coast," by a score of twelve to zip. Enough said.
The "Weather Gurus," at AccuWeather, are forecasting that the skies above Central New Jersey will provide the shining sun to the residents therein. Enjoy and remember to encase your body in sunscreen.
Your wait is now over. It's now time for, today's edition of "Al's Diatribes." Today's subject is "A DAY TO REMEMBER."
The days that I remember vividly, are:
- the day I entered the world, although I slept through it - the day my gorgeous and intelligent kids made their initial appearance here on earth - the day JFK was assassinated - 9/11, as if it were yesterday - the day that I first laid my eyes on this outstanding babe, from Cranford, New Jersey - the day my dad passed on to the great beyond, almost thirty-nine years ago - the day, in 1955, when the Brooklyn Dodgers won their first World Series - their last game at Ebbets Field in 1958 and then Mr. O'Malley kidnapped them to Los Angeles - the day I graduated High School - a day in June 1964, when I received Batchelor of Science Degree - March 14, 1970, when I marched down the aisle - the first day of my first job, believe me, it wasn't that memorable - the New York Giants first Super Bowl victory - my first contribution to "Al's Diatribes," it will be recorded in the annals of sarcastic, humorous publications history
Word count exceeded, fingers aching, so today's edition is over and done. I would suggest that you keep your memories, securely, in both your head and heart. Make it a great day!
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I am not a world known business analyst but I would assume I am not a bad one either considering my 12-year experience in Business Development. During this period I have dealt with a wide range of business opportunities.
I also realized that due to a substantial number of factors involved, all details require careful consideration. To sum up, business development is about two major aspects: (i) it is true that devil is in the details; (ii) it is a very tough job as you need to produce assessment result which shall be as objective as humanly possible regardless of what management want to hear.
Recently I found an Article “Why is Business Analysis So Hard?” which describes the scope in details. The author has explained perfectly what it takes to be a business analyst.
The reason I said it, is because people who know how to analyze can see potential directions and likely outcome by connecting dots. Business development analysts, unlike most of other professionals, have to have a certain level of knowledge related to economics, finance, technical, legal, human resources, social, negotiation and communication skills as well as knowledge of differences in business cultures. Recently, one more component was added – emotional intelligence skills.
Unfortunately, the same ability makes the job tough because business analyst usually is the first to detect an upcoming problem. But because other people cannot see it yet, it often leads to unfair accusations.
Of course, when the unwelcome event finally arrives and begins “to knock the door”, everyone suddenly remembers what analyst tried to explain. Although it is good to be acquitted, but it doesn’t help because by the time the public understands, usually, it is too late.
***
When presidential election campaign started in the United States, all I knew about Donald Trump was that he “miraculously” managed to transform a billion net negative to a billionaire businessman. I also knew that he has his own show, “Apprentice”. That would be it.
However, when he started to follow the process, I noticed numerous mismatches in his statements and, at times, openly racists remarks. Of course, I decided to check his history. The information I found online was enough to identify a number of disturbing signs.
The entire history of Trump contains plenty of evidence (I could not find anything positive) and what I observed during the election campaign didn’t suggest optimistic outlook. In addition, the inconsistency of his statements, over-rated self-assessment, total lack of experience in politics, poorly covered racial intolerance and his attitude towards women and much more, made me understand that, if elected, he is unlikely to deliver something positive.
The vividly noticeable difference between his words and actions and what people he picks for key positions in his administration, allowed me to come up with analysis which is mostly confirmed by what has actually happened so far. I just hope that the last part of my analysis will never materialise.
***
I notice one very interesting trend. Despite the rules of conventional logic, the leading financial institutions were forecasting a boost in economic growth. Initially, I couldn’t understand why they ignore the obvious signals. But now I begin to understand why they did that.
The stock market is more about sentiments and less about solid fundamentals. I would also assume that such over-optimistic forecasts were made with the hope that investors, closed-end and open funds would get excited and it will keep financial markets afloat for a while.
What remains a mystery to me is how could they seriously assume that the fundamentals of the global economy will follow artificially boosted sentiments.
The New York Times in it Article “G.D.P. Report Shows U.S. Economy Off to Slow Start in 2017” wrote that Americans say they feel more optimistic about the economy since President Trump was elected. But they certainly are not acting that way, and that is shaping up to be a challenge for his administration.
Consumers pulled back sharply on spending in early 2017, the Commerce Department said on Friday, reducing the economy’s quarterly growth to its lowest level in three years. In fact, the 0.7% annual growth rate for the period is far below the 2.5% pace in President Barack Obama’s final three months in office, let alone Mr. Trump’s 4% target.
The caution among consumers was particularly notable on big purchases like automobiles. Other indicators were stronger — businesses invested at a healthy pace — but that was not enough to offset the headwinds from feeble retail sales and falling inventories.
The New York Times also confirmed my suspicions by indicating that years of a fundamentally tepid recovery, the promise of stronger economic growth that is always just around the corner has had a waiting-for-Godot quality. Investors and Wall Street seem confident that this time, the predictions will finally come true — hence the 11 percent surge in stocks since the election — but some independent economists are wary.
The softness last quarter also provides crucial ammunition for the Trump administration’s arguments that big tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks are necessary for the economy to grow the way it did in the 1980s and 1990s.
Tax cuts, regulatory relief, trade renegotiations and an unfettered energy sector are needed “to overcome the dismal economy inherited by the Trump administration,” said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. “Business and consumer sentiment is strong, but both must be released from the regulatory and tax shackles constraining economic growth.”
The New York Times also points out that Q1 2017 fade is also sure to be noticed by the Federal Reserve as it contemplates whether to proceed with two more interest-rate increases planned for this year. Federal Reserve policymakers are set to meet next week, and while there is little expectation that an interest-rate increase will be announced when the meeting ends on Wednesday.
Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Mr. Obama, said he found the disconnect between findings of optimism and actual behavior puzzling, though he added, “It’s possible it was a blip.”
On the other hand, something more significant may be happening. The rising cost of necessities like health care, housing and education are crowding out discretionary spending for middle-class Americans, said Stephanie Pomboy, founder of MacroMavens, an independent economics consulting firm in New York. She added that the tax cuts the administration is proposing are unlikely to reverse that trend, she added.
What Stephanie Pomboy said is absolutely correct. Although, if I may add, there is no reason for worries. Recently announced “one-page plan” for reforms of the United States Tax Legislation, the #1 economy in the world, leaves no reason for us to worry because it shows that Donald Trump and his administration don’t have any plan.
However, it is also a disturbing signal suggesting that they are clueless. Otherwise, it would be crystal clear to them that decision to present a so-called Tax Reform Plan that fits A4 size paper to the American public and the entire world community is nothing but stupid.
If we look at the components, we would appreciate the complexity of the U.S tax regulations. But this is only the major elements. I can only assume that there are hundreds of sub-laws and related laws. I think if we just list down titles of those laws it might take at least 10 pages.
The New York Times also indicates that the White House administration left unaddressed, a tax treatment enjoyed by some of the richest people on Wall Street. It is reasonable to seek clarification because, during the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to close the loophole and make its beneficiaries, private equity and hedge fund executives among them, pay their fair share of taxes. He once proclaimed that “hedge fund guys are getting away with murder.”
Carried interest, which is essentially the profits reaped by hedge fund managers and private equity executives, is currently taxed at a long-term capital gains rate that is about half the roughly 40% ordinary income rate for the highest earners. Critics argue that these executives should pay the full rate, while industry groups say they are entitled to the lower rate because they are taking entrepreneurial risks.
According to the New York Times, several tax experts and Wall Street lawyers said that by not mentioning the matter at all, the administration seemed to be signaling that the tax proposal would effectively eliminate the unique taxation of carried interest. It does not mean carried interest would be taxed at a higher rate than it is today. Instead, experts say, the tax rate for carried interest may well go down.
That reading is based on the proposal subjecting pass-through entities — which include partnerships like private equity firms and hedge funds — to a 15% tax rate, which is lower than the rate on capital gains and much lower than the top rate on ordinary income. In other words, it appears that if the Trump plan is enacted, private equity executives would not just avoid higher taxation; their taxes would actually decline.
The other interesting factor is that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has risen about 5%, in what supporters have called a “Trump bump.”
In November 2016, analysts and bankers predicted a bump in the S.&P., based in part on the promises of an overly business-friendly presidency. Trump has promised to lift regulations that he described as obstacles for businesses and implement both big tax cuts and greater infrastructure spending.
Since Trump deregulated financial and energy industry, the business community was looking forward to the announcement of tax reforms. But because Donald Trump does not know how to filter words, his statement that he “inherited a mess” from Mr. Obama, the economy that he took over has shown some fundamental resilience coincided with the White House announcement on tax.
https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000005049512/submit.html
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 4.57%, or 0.2%, to 2,384.20. The Dow Jones industrial average gave up 40.82 points, or 0.2%, to 20,940.51. The Nasdaq composite lost 1.33 points, less than 0.1%, to 6,047.61.
The Dow Minute by Minute
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 4.57%, or 0.2%, to 2,384.20. The Dow Jones industrial average gave up 40.82 points, or 0.2%, to 20,940.51. The Nasdaq composite lost 1.33 points, less than 0.1%, to 6,047.61.
It is unclear where the markets go from here. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to continue raising interest rates in the interest of sustaining what its chairwoman, Janet Yellen, called “a healthy economy.”
Besides, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined 3.6 points in April, or 6.5%, to 51.7, from 55.3 in March. February’s number stood at a 10-year high of 56.4. Due to the failure of the Republicans’ ObamaCare replacement bill, which Trump backed, and the increased media coverage of Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election. The index is half a point above its 12-month average of 51.2, and 1.5 points above its all-time average of 49.2. It’s 7.3 points above the 44.4 level of December of 2007, the month that the U.S. officially entered the recession.
The Six-Month Outlook is a forward-looking gauge of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects over the next half year. The index fell 2.5 points, or 4.7%, to 51.1 in April. By comparison, it stood at 32.1 in December of 2007, as the economy fell into recession. The index’s slight drop comes as reports swirl of a possible quarter-point rate hike by the Fed as early as next week.
The gauge of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months slipped 1.3 points, or 2.1%, to 61.3 in April, down from 62.6 in March. This is one of the most consistently optimistic indexes in the IBD/TIPP data set. April’s reading is still 4.4 points above the long-term average of 56.9. But it remains below the high of 65.3, set in January of 2004 as the Bush-era tax cuts began.
A measure of Americans’ confidence in government, the Federal Policies component was the biggest loser of all in April, dropping 7 points, or 14.1%, to 42.6 from 49.6 in March. This index had briefly returned to optimistic territory in February for the first time since February 2007. But confidence plunged following the failure of an ObamaCare replacement bill and ongoing questions about the Obama administration’s role in spying on domestic political opponents. Intended to give a reading on how Americans view government policies put in place by the president, Congress, the courts and the Federal Reserve, the Federal Policies Index has consistently been the least optimistic of the three subindexes that make up the Economic Optimism Index. Its decline suggests some Americans may have increased doubts whether President Trump can keep his promises to cut taxes, reduce regulation and “drain the swamp” in Washington.
Some analysts believe that there is hope for recovery in Q2. I think it might be possible provided, however, that the country’s leadership is a team of highly experienced and visionary people. As long as the current administration remains in the White House, there is no reason to hope for such recovery.
We also need to remember that due to the dramatically increased role of U.S.-registered investment companies and exchange-traded funds (ETF), Trump’s administration could spell a disaster.
According to the 2016 Investment Company Fact Book, the largest segment of the asset management business in the United States is made up of registered investment companies. U.S.-registered investment companies play a major role in the U.S. economy and financial markets, and a growing role in global financial markets.
These funds managed $18.1 trillion in assets at year-end 2015, largely on behalf of more than 90 million U.S. retail investors. Over the last twenty years, strong demand from households due to rising household wealth, the aging U.S. population, and the evolution of employer-based retirement systems resulted in strong growth of the industry. Funds supplied investment capital in securities markets around the world and were among the largest groups of investors in the U.S. stock, commercial paper, and municipal securities markets.
In 2015, U.S.-registered investment companies* managed $18.1 trillion in assets at year-end 2015, approximately $0.1 trillion less than at year-end 2014.
The U.S. mutual fund and exchange-traded fund (ETF) markets—with $17.8 trillion in assets under management at year-end 2015—remained the largest in the world, accounting for 48% of the $37.2 trillion in regulated open-end fund assets worldwide.
The majority of U.S. mutual fund and ETF assets at year-end 2015 were in long-term funds, with equity funds comprising 56%. Within equity funds, domestic funds (those that invest primarily in shares of U.S. corporations) held 41% of total assets and world funds (those that invest significantly in shares of non-U.S. corporations) accounted for 15%. Bond funds held 21% of U.S. mutual fund and ETF assets. Money market funds, hybrid funds, and other funds—such as those that invest primarily in commodities—held the remainder – 23%.
Households make up the largest group of investors in funds, and registered investment companies managed 22% of household financial assets at year-end 2015.
From 2006 to 2015, households invested an annual average of $366 billion, on net, in long-term registered investment companies, with net investments each year except 2008. In contrast, households sold an annual average of $274 billion in directly held equities and bonds, on net.
The growth of individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and defined contribution (DC) plans, particularly 401(k) plans, explains some of the increased household reliance on investment companies during the past two decades. At year-end 2015, households had 9.6% of their financial assets in 401(k) and other DC retirement plans, up from 7.6% percent in 1995. Mutual funds managed 54% of the assets in these plans in 2015, more than double the 26% in 1995.
IRAs made up 10.4% of household financial assets at year-end 2015, with mutual funds managing 48% of IRA assets that year. Mutual funds also managed $1.2 trillion in variable annuities outside retirement accounts, as well as $5.7 trillion of other assets outside retirement accounts.
A variety of financial services companies offer registered funds in the United States. At year-end 2015, 79% of fund complexes were independent fund advisers, and these firms managed 67% of investment company assets. Other types of fund complexes in the U.S. market include non-U.S. fund advisers, insurance companies, banks, thrift, and brokerage firms.
Unit investment trusts (UITs) are registered investment companies with characteristics of both mutual funds and closed-end funds. But unlike either mutual funds or closed-end funds, UITs have a preset termination date based on the portfolio’s investments and the UIT’s investment goals. Units of UITs investing in long-term bonds might remain outstanding, or in circulation, for 20 to 30 years depending on the maturity of the bonds they hold. UITs investing in stocks might seek to capture capital appreciation in a few years or less. When a UIT is dissolved, proceeds from the securities are paid to unit holders or, at a unit holder’s election, reinvested in another trust.
Among all U.S. households, the percentage willing to take above-average or substantial investment risk tends to move with stock market performances a result of 2007-2009 financial crisis. However, since mid-2013 the stock market bottomed out, followed by the willingness to take investment risk.
Retirement assets include individual account–based savings (e.g., IRAs and DC plans) and assets held in DB plans. Traditional DB plans promise to pay benefits in retirement typically based on salary and years of service, and assets held in those plans represent funding for those promised benefits. Some DB plans do not have sufficient funding to cover promised benefits that households have a legal right to expect; the total unfunded liabilities of DB plans were $3.8 trillion at year-end 2015.
Underfunding is more pronounced in government-sector pension plans. As of year-end 2015, private-sector DB plans had $2.9 trillion in assets and only $0.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities. On the other hand, state and local government DB plans had $3.6 trillion in assets and $1.7 trillion in unfunded liabilities, and federal DB plans had $1.5 trillion in assets and $1.8 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
This is remarkable and disturbing sign that unfunded liabilities amount to almost $4 trillion dollars. As far as I recall, to save the U.S. economy during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, it required slightly less than $1 trillion.
Energy sector was in decline within segnificant period of time. It is given that the energy and materials sectors are closely closely tied to the prices of raw materials. It is also expected that crude oil prices may not recover soon.
If we look at the top right corner of the abover chart, we can see that the Energy sector status was changed from “Underweight” to “Overweight”. The chart below shows that Energy sector is showing a consistent negative signal with uncertainty ahead. The question is when funds will stand to pull off.
For any business sector, stability and clarity or “investors confidence” are fundamental factors. Considering a long-term nature of investments in oil and gas projects, the importance of stability and clarity increases by folds.
I believe that Donald Trump’s outrageous inconsistency and complete lack of leadership qualities have finally brought investors down to earth.
The presented one-page plan on tax reforms and Trump’s complaints that he did not expect that the job of the president of the United States is actually really tough, sent strong signal to investors that they should not expect much. The question is when funds will start to pull off.
Taking into account that long-term investors are not the major market players and the fact that about $4 trillion of the investments belong to pension funds, IRA, DC plans, etc., suggest only one thing. When overall weakness of the economy lines up with Donald Trump in the White House, it means that the perfect storm is coming.
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When investment funds will start pulling off? I am not a world known business analyst but I would assume I am not a bad one either considering my 12-year experience in Business Development.
#abnormal crude stock increase#actual impact of Trump&039;s policies#administration&039;s capacity to refinance the debt#affordability of the public debt#allocation of investments to US energy companies#American people#BP 2017 energy outlook#business#confirmation#conflict of interest is unprecidented#conflicts#confrontation#confusion#congress#domestic#Donald Trump#economics#energy information administration#eonomy#equity#events#eventually#evidence#evolution#fact#factor#facts#failure#finance#future debt obligations
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Trump’s Threat Against Maduro Unites Latin America, Against U.S.
By Nicholas Casey, NY Times, Aug. 14, 2017
President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela had become a pariah among fellow Latin American leaders as his beleaguered country staggered toward dictatorship. But a threat by President Trump to use the American military against Mr. Maduro’s government has united those leaders in a different direction: demanding that the United States keep out of the region’s affairs.
“The possibility of a military intervention shouldn’t even be considered,” Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia’s president, said on Sunday during a visit by Vice President Mike Pence to the region. “America is a continent of peace. It is the land of peace.”
Mr. Santos’s response to Mr. Trump’s remarks--echoed by many other Latin American leaders in recent days--could endanger a fragile alliance against what many fear is the first dictatorship to emerge in the region in decades, analysts say.
“Threatening military action undermines the strongest Latin American consensus in support of democracy that I have seen since the end of the Pinochet regime,” said Mark L. Schneider, an adviser at the Americas program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to the Chilean military dictatorship led by Augusto Pinochet.
Maintaining that alliance will be a difficult balancing act for Mr. Pence as he tours Latin America this week, with stops in Chile, Panama and Argentina.
Even on the first stage of his trip in Colombia, Mr. Pence shifted tones, urging a “peaceable” solution during a meeting with Mr. Santos on Sunday, then suggesting something tougher when he said the United States would not “stand by while Venezuela collapses into dictatorship” as he met with Venezuelan refugees the next day.
The dispute began last Friday when Mr. Trump, speaking with reporters about an escalating standoff over North Korea’s nuclear weapons, suddenly added Venezuela to countries where he said he was considering military intervention.
“We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option if necessary,” the president said.
The remark was immediately seen as bolstering Mr. Maduro domestically, where he, like his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, has long warned of United States coup plots and invasions. But it has also left Latin Americans in a difficult position, forced to choose between one country accused of dictatorship and another being called an empire--or to simply condemn both.
Peru, which has taken some of the toughest stands in the region against Venezuela, issued a statement on Saturday condemning possible use of force, and Mexico said the crisis could not be resolved with soldiers. Brazil said renouncing violence was the “basis of democratic cohabitation.” And human rights groups in Venezuela rejected Mr. Trump’s threat.
Much of the reaction may have to do with history. Many of the countries now rejecting Mr. Trump’s use of military force were themselves invaded by the United States, which once famously regarded the region as “America’s backyard.” Panama, one of the countries on Mr. Pence’s visit, was invaded in 1989 when President George Bush toppled its dictator, Manuel Noriega.
“An often ugly history of U.S. interventions is vividly remembered in Latin America--even as we in the U.S. have forgotten,” said Shannon O’Neil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in Latin America.
Under President Barack Obama, however, Washington aimed to get past the conflicts by building wider consensus over regional disputes. In 2009, after the Honduran military removed the leftist president Manuel Zelaya from power in a midnight coup, the United States joined other countries in trying to broker--albeit unsuccessfully--a deal for his return.
In 2014, there was more success when Mr. Obama said he would restore relations with Cuba after a half century of Cold War conflict that was a point of contention among many Latin American nations. The diplomatic thaw left much of the region warming to Washington for the first time in years.
Then came the crisis in Venezuela. For more than two years, stagnant oil prices and years of economic mismanagement had left the country short of food and basic medicines. In April, people took to the streets demanding Mr. Maduro’s removal, leading to clashes that have left more than 120 dead.
During Mr. Obama’s last days in office, his administration saw a chance to build consensus through diplomacy, joining an effort by the Organization of American States, a regional diplomacy group, to pressure Venezuela through opening an investigation that could lead to suspension. In March, the United States and more than a dozen other nations publicly urged the country to release political prisoners and hold new elections.
But Mr. Trump’s White House was pursuing a more aggressive path on its own.
In February, the Treasury Department issued sanctions against the Venezuelan vice president, Tareck El Aissami, accusing him of being a drug kingpin. As Mr. Maduro orchestrated a vote to establish a new ruling body on July 30, the White House blacklisted judges and sanctioned more officials; after the vote was held, Mr. Maduro was sanctioned personally, leaving him one of four heads of state to be blacklisted that way.
On Friday came Mr. Trump’s military threat.
While few expected Mr. Trump to actually order an attack, much of the damage was already done for American diplomacy, analysts said.
“Trump’s comments appeared to be, as usual, a sudden outburst that was not thought through,” said Riordan Roett, who heads the Latin American studies program at Johns Hopkins University.
He added that those supporting the leftist movement founded by Mr. Chávez were ultimately the winners.
“It puts the U.S. in the position of the ‘bully’ not unlike the warmongering over North Korea,” he said. “This is a God given gift to the Chavistas.”
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