#valonqar theory

[greenerteacups]

oooh please someday tell us what you think of GOT

oh, no, it's my fatal weakness! it's [checks notes] literally just the bare modicum of temptation! okay you got me.

SO. in order to tell what's wrong with game of thrones you kind of have to have read the books, because the books are the reason the show goes off the rails. i actually blame the showrunners relatively little in proportion to GRRM for how bad the show was (which I'm not gonna rehash here because if you're interested in GOT in any capacity you've already seen that horse flogged to death). people debate when GOT "got bad" in terms of writing, but regardless of when you think it dropped off, everyone agrees the quality declined sharply in season 8, and to a certain extent, season 7. these are the seasons that are more or less entirely spun from whole cloth, because season 7 marks the beginning of what will, if we ever see it, be the Winds of Winter storyline. it's the first part that isn't based on a book by George R.R. Martin. it's said that he gave the showrunners plot outlines, but we don't know how detailed they were, or how much the writers diverged from the blueprint — and honestly, considering the cumulative changes made to the story by that point, some stark divergence would have been required. (there's a reason for this. i'll get there in a sec.)

so far, i'm not saying anything all that original. a lot of people recognized how bad the show got as soon as they ran out of Book to adapt. (I think it's kind of weird that they agreed to make a show about an unfinished series in the first place — did GRRM figure that this was his one shot at a really good HBO adaptation, and forego misgivings about his ability to write two full books in however many years it took to adapt? did he think they would wait for him? did he not care that the series would eventually spoil his magnum opus, which he's spent the last three decades of his life writing? perplexing.) but the more interesting question is why the show got bad once it ran out of Book, because in my mind, that's not a given. a lot of great shows depart from the books they were based on. fanfiction does exactly that, all the time! if you have good writers who understand the characters they're working with, departure means a different story, not a worse one. now, the natural reply would be to say that the writers of GOT just aren't good, or at least aren't good at the things that make for great television, and that's why they needed the books as a structure, but I don't think that's true or fair, either. books and television are very different things. the pacing of a book is totally different from the pacing of a television show, and even an episodic book like ASOIAF is going to need a lot of work before it's remotely watchable as a series. bad writers cannot make great series of television, regardless of how good their source material is. sure, they didn't invent the characters of tyrion lannister and daenerys targaryen, but they sure as hell understood story structure well enough to write a damn compelling season of TV about them!

so but then: what gives? i actually do think it's a problem with the books! the show starts out as very faithful to the early books (namely, A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings) to the point that most plotlines are copied beat-for-beat. the story is constructed a little differently, and it's definitely condensed, but the meat is still there. and not surprisingly, the early books in ASOIAF are very tightly written. for how long they are, you wouldn't expect it, but on every page of those books, the plot is racing. you can practically watch george trying to beat the fucking clock. and he does! useful context here is that he originally thought GOT was going to be a trilogy, and so the scope of most threads in the first book or two would have been much smaller. it also helps that the first three books are in some respects self-contained stories. the first book is a mystery, the second and third are espionage and war dramas — and they're kept tight in order to serve those respective plots.

the trouble begins with A Feast for Crows, and arguably A Storm of Swords, because GRRM starts multiplying plotlines and treating the series as a story, rather than each individual book. he also massively underestimated the number of pages it would take him to get through certain plot beats — an assumption whose foundation is unclear, because from a reader's standpoint, there is a fucke tonne of shit in Feast and Dance that's spurious. I'm not talking about Brienne's Riverlands storyline (which I adore thematically but speaking honestly should have been its own novella, not a part of Feast proper). I'm talking about whole chapters where Tyrion is sitting on his ass in the river, just talking to people. (will I eat crow about this if these pay off in hugely satisfying ways in Winds or Dream? oh, totally. my brothers, i will gorge myself on sweet sweet corvid. i will wear a dunce cap in the square, and gleefully, if these turn out to not have been wastes of time. the fact that i am writing this means i am willing to stake a non-negligible amount of pride on the prediction that that will not happen). I'm talking about scenes where the characters stare at each other and talk idly about things that have already happened while the author describes things we already have seen in excruciating detail. i'm talking about threads that, while forgivable in a different novel, are unforgivable in this one, because you are neglecting your main characters and their story. and don't tell me you think that a day-by-day account tyrion's river cruise is necessary to telling his story, because in the count of monte cristo, the main guy disappears for nine years and comes hurtling back into the story as a vengeful aristocrat! and while time jumps like that don't work for everything, they certainly do work if what you're talking about isn't a major story thread!

now put aside whether or not all these meandering, unconcluded threads are enjoyable to read (as, in fairness, they often are!). think about them as if you're a tv showrunner. these bad boys are your worst nightmare. because while you know the author put them in for a reason, you haven't read the conclusion to the arc, so you don't know what that reason is. and even if the author tells you in broad strokes how things are going to end for any particular character (and this is a big "if," because GRRM's whole style is that he lets plots "develop as he goes," so I'm not actually convinced that he does have endings written out for most major characters), that still doesn't help you get them from point A (meandering storyline) to point B (actual conclusion). oh, and by the way, you have under a year to write this full season of television, while GRRM has been thinking about how to end the books for at least 10. all of this means you have to basically call an audible on whether or not certain arcs are going to pay off, and, if they are, whether they make for good television, and hence are worth writing. and you have to do that for every. single. unfinished. story. in the books.

here's an example: in the books, Quentin Martell goes on a quest to marry Daenerys and gain a dragon. many chapters are spent detailing this quest. spoiler alert: he fails, and he gets charbroiled by dragons. GRRM includes this plot to set up the actions of House Martell in Winds, but the problem is that we don't know what House Martell does in Winds, because (see above) the book DNE. So, although we can reliably bet that the showrunners understand (1) Daenerys is coming to Westeros with her 3 fantasy nukes, and (2) at some point they're gonna have to deal with the invasion of frozombies from Canada, that DOESN'T mean they necessarily know exactly what's going to happen to Dorne, or House Martell. i mean, fuck! we don't even know if Martin knows what's going to happen to Dorne or House Martell, because he's said he's the kind of writer who doesn't set shit out beforehand! so for every "Cersei defaults on millions of dragons in loans from the notorious Bank of Nobody Fucks With Us, assumes this will have no repercussions for her reign or Westerosi politics in general" plotline — which might as well have a big glaring THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT stamp on top of the chapter heading — you have Arianne Martell trying to do a coup/parent trap switcheroo with Myrcella, or Euron the Goffick Antichrist, or Faegon Targaryen and JonCon preparing a Blackfyre restoration, or anything else that might pan out — but might not! And while that uncertainty about what's important to the "overall story" might be a realistic way of depicting human beings in a world ruled by chance and not Destiny, it makes for much better reading than viewing, because Game of Thrones as a fantasy television series was based on the first three books, which are much more traditional "there is a plot and main characters and you can generally tell who they are" kind of book. I see Feast and Dance as a kind of soft reboot for the series in this respect, because they recenter the story around a much larger cast and cast a much broader net in terms of which characters "deserve" narrative attention.

but if you're making a season of television, you can't do that, because you've already set up the basic premise and pacing of your story, and you can't suddenly pivot into a long-form tone poem about the horrors of war. so you have to cut something. but what are you gonna cut? bear in mind that you can't just Forget About Dorne, or the Iron Islands, or the Vale, or the North, or pretty much any region of the story, because it's all interconnected, but to fit in everything from the books would require pacing of the sort that no reasonable audience would ever tolerate. and bear in mind that the later books sprout a lot more of these baby-plots that could go somewhere, but also might end up being secondary or tertiary to the "main story," which, at the end of the day, is about dragons and ice zombies and the rot at the heart of the feudal power system glorified in classical fantasy. that's the story that you as the showrunner absolutely must give them an end to, and that's the story that should be your priority 1.

so you do a hack and slash job, and you mortar over whatever you cut out with storylines that you cook up yourself, but you can't go too far afield, because you still need all the characters more or less in place for the final showdown. so you pinch here and push credulity there, and you do your best to put the characters in more or less the same place they would have been if you kept the original, but on a shorter timeframe. and is it as good as the first seasons? of course not! because the material that you have is not suited to TV like the first seasons are. and not only that, but you are now working with source material that is actively fighting your attempt to constrain a linear and well-paced narrative on it. the text that you're working with changed structure when you weren't looking, and now you have to find some way to shanghai this new sprawling behemoth of a Thing into a television show. oh, and by the way, don't think that the (living) author of the source material will be any help with this, because even though he's got years of experience working in television writing, he doesn't actually know how all of these threads will tie together, which is possibly the reason that the next book has taken over 8 years (now 13 and counting) to write. oh and also, your showrunners are sick of this (in fairness, very difficult) job and they want to go write for star wars instead, so they've refused the extra time the studio offered them for pre-production and pushed through a bunch of first-draft scripts, creating a crunch culture of the type that spawns entirely avoidable mistakes, like, say, some poor set designer leaving a starbucks cup in frame.

anyway, that's what I think went wrong with game of thrones.

[slymreddwyne]

So the Valonqar prophecy doesnt say it's specifically CERSEI'S little brother, right? Just "the valonqar". And Valonqar means little brother in specifically High Valyrian. Yknow who else is (presumably) a little brother who probably knows High Valyrian?

Young Griff/Aegon/Faegon.

Perhaps the hands that wrap around her pale throat are not literal appendages, but Faegon's "hands". Perhaps Jon Connington will give her greyscale...

[ladystoneboobs]

wrt valonqar speculation, if the valonqar is allowed to be someone else's unrelated younger sibling, let's stretch that to use the "but maester aemon said gender doesn't matter in hv" clause to mean the valonqar is not even restricted to being a younger brother either. that makes just as much sense as noting the prophecy says the valonqar, not your valonqar. what if cersei is killed by someone else's sister who keeps a lannister vendetta list? no, i don't mean arya stark, dummies. i mean her undead mother, lady stoneheart!

but catelyn was an eldest child, not anyone's younger sibling you say? wrong! "Her two older brothers had both died in infancy", meaning she was actually a younger, thirdborn child. if the valonqar is not restricted to cersei's own brothers, and could be younger siblings in general, why not count someone who was a younger sister only to two dead brothers she never knew? of all the non-lannister younger siblings, did anyone else specifically dream of strangling cersei? ("dream of riding to King's Landing and wrapping my hands around Cersei Lannister's white throat and squeezing until her face turns black." compare that to the valonqar prophecy of "the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you." why else would grrm ever repeat the unique phrasing of "white throat" in such a way? obviously it has to mean something!) and the chapter where cat speaks of her dreams of choking cersei (Catelyn V, aCoK) comes right before her chapter revealing the existence of two dead elder brothers (Catelyn VI, aCoK). that can't be a coincidence, people! grrm wants us to connect those two facts in the back of our minds, so when the true valonqar is revealed it will be shocking but make perfect sense in retrospect to those few of us who have been paying attention.

c'mon now, folks! who has a higher lannister threat level: the former lannister dog who killed his brothers' goons only in self-defense and became a lamed dog; the knight of flowers who has only ever killed baratheon soldiers, his own men included; some child whose little hands probably can't strangle anyone; or the spirit of vengeange hunting down all frey- and lannister-affiliated enemies, who had cersei lannister near the top of her hit list before her death? i rest my case. accept no other non-lannister valonqar substitutions.

[knightsickness]

i feel like most younger more beautiful queen theories have long since strayed away from common sense its brienne. its not sansa or marg because cersei thinks its them so it almost certainly isnt itd be like if they revealed stannis actually was azor ahai. i dont think ‘more beautiful’ was included just to dickride sansa/dany/arya/etc i think its an obvious reference to ‘brienne the beauty’ in a tricksy prophecy way that cersei won’t see coming because she does not even consider that ‘more beautiful’ might not be literal. she does not perceive brienne as a threat (even as brienne is taking jaime possibly to his death and at any rate away from her) and fixates on every pretty girl at court as her prophesied enemy in much the same way as she fixates on tyrion valonqar and doesnt think for a second it might be her other little brother

[melrosing]

I’m sure you’ve talked about this before but tumblr’s search function is ass 😭 what’s your endgame prediction for Jaime esp in light of the show? I think Jaime is def fighting the others as hinted in his weirwood dream. But the way got ended doesn’t feel right to me. On Reddit everyone’s saying it makes no sense so it has to be a bad adaptation of what GRRM told them but idk I don’t buy it. Especially since it seems like Cersei replaced young griff’s role

i have talked about it before but even i can't find it ha so i don't mind talking about it again however.... my thoughts on this are vague. longwinded post ahead which is more thought starters than anything definitive.

to briefly address the show ending... I mean it's literally impossible for Jaime's story to end like that, because we know that Cersei's can't end that way. Cersei is going to be murdered by the valonqar, whoever that turns out to be. and even apart from that, the book version of the twins are so done romantically. sure, there are the barest vestiges of that connection in Jaime's ADWD chapter ('back to Cersei, another part of him whispered'), but ASOS/AFFC otherwise make for an extremely thorough deconstruction of that relationship that ends with Jaime leaving Cersei for dead and wandering off the grid with Brienne. like.... GRRM didn't write all that for nothing. and sure, some people still think he might still bounce back to her in some way or another, but generally i have found.... that those theories don't tend to accompany the strongest takes on jaime's character dhjkls

for the same reason, I don't really know where this leaves us wrt the valonqar prophecy. if Jaime were still preoccupied with Cersei's cheating, he would've acted on it by now. Tyrion thinks in ACOK that if Jaime ever found out about Lancel, he'd have killed the kid himself. Jaime in AFFC suggests Lancel eat something and go to therapy. Jaime himself imagines in AFFC scenarios where he exacts revenge on the Kettleblacks and Cersei herself, and yet given the opportunity to do so.... he wanders off in the opposite direction.

the reason being that the connection Jaime once felt to Cersei has died. that bond was his reason for living, for doing anything at all - and now it's not enough for him to even stick around long enough to see what's happened to her in KL, never mind return to her side to exact revenge on her himself. in practise, he doesn't harbour the kind of action and rage he dreams about, or claims to Ilyn Payne. it's the same as how he claims he's Tywin's heir, and then keeps letting people off the hook t any given opportunity. like for all Jaime knows, he could die fighting """"the Hound"""", and never see Cersei again, and that's apparently just fine. the opposite of love isn't hate it's indifference etc. and no I don't think Jaime will ever feel truly indifferent to Cersei - she is his twin, the mother of his children, and the woman he has loved all his life. but I think it's entirely fair to say that the extremes of love and hate he felt within the context of their romance are gone, because the romance itself has gone. Jaime's feelings towards Cersei exist outside of that now.

returning to the valonqar prophecy. I don't think it's necessarily guaranteed that Jaime the valonqar, but I do think it would be myopic to claim that he isn't a real possibility. and since Cersei's end has to factor into what Jaime's is or isn't in some kind of way, I'll suppose that he is the valonqar for the sake of this post. it's not written, so I can't say how exactly I'll end up feeling about its execution, but per the previous paragraph, I don't imagine this will have anything to do with the 'Moonboy for all I know' shit. that was for AFFC. that was building to Jaime burning her letter. Jaime in TWOW is going to have left much of that behind, bc frankly he'll have other stuff to worry about.

but we know that Cersei will be dealing w wildfire (apart from what happens in the show, this is one of the most heavily foreshadowed events in the book), and whilst it's not clear when or why she'll use it, it seems like a natural site for the valonqar prophecy to come true, in whatever way it does. and Jaime has been here before w Aerys etc, this has perturbed him in other Cersei x wildfire scenes in AFFC, so it seems it's a likely full circle moment. potentially Tommen's life is wrapped up in this too - I think it's also foreshadowed that Cersei (I assume accidentally) will manage to kill Tommen in the wildfire blast as well. so like, sure, ig that would set the scene for valonqar Jaime. I've never really liked this prophecy for a whole host of reasons, but the idea of spurned lover Jaime tramping back to KL to kill Cersei over Moonboy is uh. ??? yeah im not worried about that

[as for the more sensitive implications of Jaime being the valonqar as Cersei's ex lover, which I believe exist regardless of whether the act is about Moonboy or not: I think that's an important conversation to be had, but not one I feel effectively able to have until we have the scene itself. so whilst i want to acknowledge that context, I've found that conversations aren't often productive when participants are each imagining a different version of the scene in their minds]

then we're just left to contemplate where exactly any of this comes in the broader picture of TWOW/ADOS. if it is (per the show) effectively the last act of the series, then idk. maybe Jaime dies in Cersei's wildfire/the general pyre that is KL by this point idk?? like ok sure. he saved the city once but he couldn't save it this time etc.

however I tend to believe that TLN will follow what happens in KL, or in the very least will follow Cersei's death. i'm never certain of this, but if not, it leaves you wondering what exactly Cersei, Aegon, Arianne, Joncon etc are even doing in the south throughout all this. like. carrying on as normal?? do they even notice TLN?? winter is setting in everywhere.

and I do fully believe Jaime will fight in TLN per the weirwood dream, widow's wail etc. Jaime's story is a redemption arc (whether ppl like that term or not, GRRM uses it himself), and fighting in TLN is a natural conclusion to Jaime's pivot to the pursuit of honour, and his arc's own gradual turn towards the northern storyline. Jaime's story has always been about leaving behind loyalty to individuals and institutions, and instead fighting for causes he believes in, according to his own set of values. there's also the fact that he has to attain widow's wail somehow (which i'm certain he will), and as it is currently in KL.... it seems reasonable to assume that Jaime will be stopping by KL before he moves north again. this could be a tenuous assumption or it could be entirely correct, guess we'll see. but whatever

so if TLN is the final act of the series, then Jaime either dies in TLN (fine), or possibly even survives the series (though on this I always hedge my optimism). survival possibilities include becoming Hand or a KG to Bran, joining the Night's Watch, becoming a hedge knight, literally whatever. I like the idea that he stays with Brienne whatever ends up happening, but if it's some bittersweet long distance shit then sure whatever that's workable. however i do prefer to just assume he'll die for my own sake xo

[goodqueenaly]

What will Jaime's reaction and development in response to the probable slaughter of Freys and Lannisters ("Red Wedding 2.0") by Lady Stoneheart, and the rebellion of the Riverlands that will likely follow, be? While there are a lot of valonqar theories and theories of how he might survive the encounter with Stoneheart, but for some reason I don't recall any theories on this front. Might there be a realization that his family's, and his, actions in the Riverlands from AGoT forward were wrong?

To the extend a “second Red Wedding” or similar event happens, I tend to think the impact would be intended for us as readers, rather than for Jaime as a character. Throughout his chapters in AFFC and ADWD, in my opinion, Jaime never quite gets to the point of realizing, to put it a certain way, “are we the baddies”. Jaime may pat himself on the back (with his golden hand) for hanging outlaws found beneath a Wode keep, but never considers what responsibility his father’s order to raze the Riverlands had on these presumably homeless, presumably starving people sheltering in a now-rare refuge. Jaime advocates for the Lannister-Frey household at Darry to “make the smallfolk love you” as a response to their support of the brotherhood without banners, without acknowledging the hypocrisy of this household trying to win the love of people whose neighbors had been raped, murdered, and despoiled by Lannister agents and whose lords and countrymen the Freys had murdered in a gross violation of guest right (or such smallfolk seeking justice from a royal dynasty which directly engineered and benefitted from the Red Wedding). Jaime applauds himself for, as he sees it, bringing about Riverrun’s surrender without seeing, or being willing to see, that by bringing an army to this siege, mentally deciding that he would storm the walls if the Tullys remained obstinate, and threatening Edmure with violence against himself, his people, and his unborn child, he, Jaime, had already violated his oath to Catelyn (to say nothing, again, of rewarding the perpetrators of the Red Wedding). Jaime departs Raventree Hall not only by threatening Lord Tytos with Hoster’s beheading if Tytos were to aid any “outlaws and rebels” but by wishing him “a good harvest and the joy of the king’s peace” - a cruel and hollow sort of farewell, given that Jaime’s family’s agents ravaged the Riverlands  and its hope of harvests and that this same royal government was the one which oversaw the murders of, among others, Blackwood’s second son and his king. Given all that, I don’t see it likely or timely for Jaime to witness a second Red Wedding type of event and say “oh right, we were wrong the whole time”; Jaime’s had plenty of evidence of that up to this point without drawing that conclusion. 

Which is not to say that this event, should it happen, would have no impact, of course. Rather, I think GRRM may use such an event to have readers reflect on, and perhaps challenge, any desire for and approach to vengeance. The Freys may suffer and die en masse - not necessarily just those who directly swung a sword or helped organize the Red Wedding in the first place. The uncomfortable display and exploration of the violent execution (pun intended) of certain acts of vengeance is a topic GRRM often handles very well, and I could see the author writing a second Red Wedding as, perhaps, an escalation of the end of Brienne’s arc in AFFC: as then the brotherhood, under Lady Stoneheart, was willing to murder Brienne, Hyle Hunt, and Podrick Payne on grossly inaccurate and unjust connections to the Lannister regime, so now perhaps the brotherhood and Lady Stoneheart will kill any Freys they can seize, whether or not these Freys actually participated in or even condoned the Red Wedding. 

[agentrouka-blog]

Super long ask, I hope this is okay to share with you. I've been reading through your speculation tags and so many other Jonsa blogs and everything just CLICKS.

I think George wasnt lying when he said the show end point is more or less how the books will end too. I really do think it will be as close to that as it can get, with how much GOT cut out/changed. Arya sailing, Bran and Sansa as Summer King and QITN, Cersei and Daenerys dead and Jon ending up far North is pretty much guaranteed to happen. It's just going to be set up very differently. Based on the theories, metas and speculations you have posted and reblogged, and the foreshadowing istumpysk highlighted in the reread project, I tried summarising what would likely happen in TWOW and ADOS.

Vale arc: Tourney starts, Brienne arrives and - similar to the tavern scene in the show - tries to get Alayne to leave with her but she refuses, Sansa (infamously) vows to become SS again and take back the North - which I feel like will be either because of her finding out about Jeyne/Arya or maybe something happening to Sweetrobin (he'll survive though), she'll then actively try to escape from LF. I think the Tourney will span several days and Harry dies relatively early, Shadrich tries something and Brienne possibly duels him, then the mountain clans attack and Sansa tries to negotiate w/ them/offer food, something goes wrong and she'll escape to the Wall with Brienne.

Stannis burns Shireen, possibly gets murdered by one of the Seaworths?

Because of his warging Jon doesn't really die, his body gets stored in the ice cells, he'll be "resurrected" (i'm unsure how), and he'll struggle with feeling and behaving like a human again. Him and Sansa reunite (I will die on the hill that the show got that thing right and they will be the first Starks to reunite), (possible Jonsa but they wont act out on feelings), and maybe also take back Winterfell w/ the Knights of the Vale (unpopular opinion apparently. But I think it would suck if Stannis were the one to take Winterfell).

Arya leaves the faceless men, meets Lady Stoneheart, possibly (😭) kills her, Nymeria (and Brynden?) free Edmure and Jeyne Westerling. I think, similar to Jon and Sansa being the mist distant Starks but the first Starks to reunite, it would be so interesting if the least Tully looking Starkling was the one who ends up reuniting with the Tully uncles.

Howland Reed and Robb's will arrive at WF, with Jon having to choose between being legitimised as a Stark but stealing his cousins' claim or having his true parentage be revealed

Cersei somehow gets rid of the faith. Tommen is foreshadowed to fall to his death and Myrcella likely dies as a consequence of the Dorne storyline. The Sand Snakes infiltrate Cersei's council.

The Greyjoys ally with Daenerys, Daenerys marries Euron?, kills Victarion? Victarion possibly dies because of that horn?

Aegon takes over Kings Landing, allies with the Riverlands, the Reach, Dorne (possibly marries Arianne?), + Golden Company

Cersei flees to Casterly Rock, Cersei as YMBQ, Jaime as Valonqar

Daenerys arrives, starts Dance 2.0 with Aegon, Aegon takes out or possibly claims one dragon, Tyrion ping pongs between both sides

Arya and Sansa are likely to be in conflict with one another at first (the letter Sansa wrote to Catelyn will likely be used - why else have Robb specificallypoint iut that he left it at home?), and perhaps the show was also right when it had them team up to take out LF (giant in a castle made of snow)

Jon goes South, possibly bonds with Aegon only to see him be taken out by their aunt, Daenerys burns down KL, Arya possibly takes out Daenerys

Bran makes some sort of deal to get rid of the Others, gives up his "powers" to atone for the actions of his ancestors, gets elected King by a council, takes ancestral seat in Harrenhaal

Arianne rules (a possibly independent?) Dorne, Asha as ruler of Iron Islands or whatever is left of its people/possibly displaced and being given land in the North?, Sansa as Lady/QITN, Jon as Lord of the Gift, Jonsa possibly left open ended, Arya sails across the world, Arya and or Brienne as independent agent(s) helping out people in need, Rickon dead (... or Bran's heir... or Septon or Maester...).

Tyrion either: Lannister heir (maybe? with his tongue cut out?) or sent to the Wall. Probably the former.

Like I said, this would definitely be in line with the show ending but unlike the show, here the characters actually would have full arcs and it would be bittersweet rather than just bitter. The dance 2.0 won't be a Jonerys romance and instead will mirror the conflict between Aegon and Rhaenyra, and Daenerys's arc will be tragic and fascinating and her death will be a mirror to Maegor and a direct consequence of what she does to the Smallfolk. All the Starklings (well.... we'll see about Rickon) are left alive, with important and fulfilling but challenging roles. They're all separated but they can and likely will reunite. All the big houses will be ruled by illegitimate children, women, and people with disabilities. No more ice threat and no more fire threat and largely no more real magic. No curtain of light, no YA team up, and a somewhat happy and satisfying and realistic end that includes an actually change to the status quo. It just makes so much sense!!! It feels so right!!!

Hi there! And sorry for the delay!

Isn't it SO satisfying when the books suddenly take on this coherent, stringent logic, all because of what jonsa represents? :)

I broadly agree with your predictions and timeline. I'm more of a jonsa optimist and truther, but otherwise... yeah, it just makes sense, doesn't it?

[first-of-her-nxme]

First I like the theory of jaqen=aegon even many people won´t believe it . second I have couples of questions for you :

.How can we believe that jaqen face is true (the one arya saw half white half red) because many people assuming that is not true .?

.why jaqen is working alone to get his dragon , without the help of varys or anyone , he doesn´t have fellowship like danny ?

and last, I think danny and brienne have seen a similar vision about a man and a girl stand alone in a fallen city does this indicates something ? and i´m so sorry about my questions hhhh.

thank you

Thank you :) I just wanted to say again that I wasn't the person who guessed that Jaqen was Aegon. Many people before me realized that. You can find some old discussions on westeros.org and other message boards. I don't want to take all the credit for it. However, everything I write here about Jaqen's journey is my explanation. People have all sorts of ideas of what happened. I often disagree with them so what you see here is mine.

But to the point.

You probably noticed that A Song of Ice and Fire is written a bit like a crime story. The series begins with a mysterious death of Jon Arryn and then Ned Stark starts his investigation. Then, the "detective" himself is murdered and the chain of deaths continues. Ned's death was the result of the unfair trial but following victims died under even stranger circumstances. You remember Joffrey and Tywin, to name but a few. We also get the prophecy of the Valonqar who is supposed to ruin Cersei's life. Some people accuse Tyrion but then we get Mercy chapter where the true killer is revealed: he is hiding in Tyrion's shade and his name is the Stranger. Interestingly enough, we have already met the Stranger who first introduced himself as Jaqen H'ghar, who is a professional killer and a very important person in Arya's life. So this is a crime story where the characters and the readers are supposed to find the real killer. In crime stories, authors always introduce the killer very early but they usually present him as a person not involved in the main plot so out of suspicion. And so it happens that GRRM also introduced Jaqen and his work quite early. And we tend to believe that he is a random criminal locked in the black cells. We see his true face like in the classic detective book and then GRRM starts messing with us and gives Jaqen a new face and then another. So this is the first reason why this face is real: it's how things work in crime stories.

Another factor is GRRM's description of Targaryens on his Not a Blog. Back in the days when the comments were still allowed, GRRM used to respond to his readers. He talked about the Targaryens's fine chiseled aristocratic features and then he described Jaqen in almost the same words in the books "slender, fine-featured...the handsome one". In addition to his beautiful face, Jaqen has white Valyrian hair. GRRM makes him tall and slender too. Jaqen is supposed to be a criminal and yet he has the manners of the aristocrat. He is clever and educated, he speaks High Valyrian. If he is a Targaryen, he doesn't need another face - he already looks like a Targ.

Then we see the resemblance to the weirwood tree. Arya observes that Jaqen seems like a tree where he is standing next to the weirwood. His hair is the color of weirwood: Valyrian white and blood red like the song of ice and fire. And like you mentioned, the image of the weirwood that looks like a young man with a girl by his side appears later in the books, in Brienne POV. There is too much of importance to this face to dismiss it as fake.

There is also a notable reference to Jaqen and Bloodraven in the prologue to A Clash of Kings when the maesters at Dragonstone receive the raven. The raven that arrives is white as snow and larger than any hawk, with the bright black eyes that meant it was no mere albino, but a truebred white raven of the Citadel. The "mere albino" is Bloodraven. Jaqen also has white hair but is a true born Targaryen and the rightful king and more powerful than Brynden. Perhaps Jaqen has black eyes like Elia. Jaqen is also a student at the Citadel later in the books so he is "the reaven of the Citadel". When the raven starts to talk he is very polite, he bows his head and calls Shireen "Lady" which mirrors Jaqen's courtesy towards Arya in Harrenhal where he calls her "My Lady of Stark". It is so symbolic that GRRM is using a raven to make a reference to Jaqen because of what we later learn about Bloodraven and the magic of weirwoods. And here in the prologue we learn that he is more powerful than Brynden, the last greenseer.

A reader needs to work a little to understand Jaqen's role in the books but this is GRRM's intention. It's supposed to be a big mystery. Like he has always been saying, he laid out breadcrumbs for us to pick up and get the true meaning behind the story.

Next part of your question: the fellowship of Jaqen or the lack of it. When we talk about Varys I think that he might be helping Jaqen. We should remember that it is Illyrio who has the gold to buy the army and it was Illyrio who took Jaqen in after Rhaegar had lost the war. I think that Illyrio decided to get rid of J/Aegon after Serra gave birth to a boy who looked like a Targaryen prince. Illyrio in the books is a carbon copy of Aegon IV so he must be one of the King's successors. He is not a legitimate Targaryen and so he can't push his claim but he got his hands on Rhaegar's son and then he got a boy who looked a lot like Aegon. So, he swapped the boys and decided to raise Young Griff like Rhaegar wished his son to be raised and make him the king. I think that he told Varys to get rid of Aegon, to kill him or sell into slavery but Varys took the boy to Braavos and left him with the Faceless Men. Please, remember that Illyrio stole all the things that used to belong to Aegon. He has the boxes filled with the boy's clothing, the silver, the armor of his guardians, the court clothes. He might have had Aegon's dragons's eggs too but he gave them to Daenerys. So now Aegon has to earn his dragon himself. He was robbed and abandoned, that's why he is alone. I still think that Varys is secretly rooting for him and might turn sides when Young Griff dies. You may be interested in re-reading the prologue to A Feast for Crows for the reference to Aegon the Conqueror and Jaqen. There is a mention of Aegon's single-dragoned conquest of Westeros. Now, Jaqen comes to Oldtown to learn how to hatch his dragon's egg and he is surely dreaming of conquering Westeros with his dragon like Aegon I did it.

The last part of your question, the symbolism of weirwoods. Yes, yes and yes: the weirwood that Brienne sees symbolizes J/Aegon and Arya. It means that they are connected to the powerful weirwood magic. They will join the old gods someday. Their souls are immortal and they will live together in weirwoods for eternity.

I'm sorry but I can't remember which Daenerys's vision you have in mind. It would be great if you could find the quote from the books, thank you in advance!

I apologize for the long answer. There is just so much book material to explain.

Thank you for another interesting question :)

[asoiaf-essays-collector]

For me, idk if Sansa is the girl in grey in Melisandre's prophecy and i don't care if they reunite at the Wall, in the Vale, in Winterfell or on the way, because the thing is its almost given that Sansa and Jon will be the first Starks to reunite since they are the most distant ones. Its how grrm works. The Starks are the central family of the series and out of their four povs that remain, Jon and Sansa are the only ones to not have a defined relationship and their reunion in twow before others will give them time to develop one.

In defence of the girl in grey theory - at this point it almost impossible to imagine her being not sansa. As much as I would prefer the vale meeting. Just think of it - Jon and Melisandre were thinking that the girl in grey would be Arya but ironically it was Jeyne Pool/Alys Karstark who happened to be geographically more convenient? Nah, that's not the irony of GRRM. Now, Sansa who Jon barely registers as sister in his inner pov - that would be the irony that we are used to in ASOIAF.

The girl in grey being not the Stark but someone else entirely just because this girl fits the criteria? It's not interesting. It gives the same vibes as theory that Cersei's valonqar is neither Tyrion nor Jaime and some other person that just happens to be someone else's younger sibling. That's just boring.

"Jon and Sansa are the only ones to not have a defined relationship" - oooh, now that's the topic I can speculate about for hours.

I'm rereading ASOS right now and gosh, the ways GRRM chooses to portray these two while their lack of any established relationship in books? That's simply fascinating how he dances around some words and names.

One of the most interesting part of this lack of interactions is the fact that it doesn't mean that they don't have this defined relationship. Their meeting and then dynamic will be a total wild card - unlike any other pair of siblings. They can literally have any dynamic and shared history or lack of it and we have no idea what it will be. I'm so excited!

And it's not only that. There is a conflict between them too - until they learn that Bran and Rickon are alive they both are kinda heirs of Starks and Winterfell, both are ruler coded since AGOT and their political strengths complement each other's weaknesses. Moreover, both can support each other's claim. Sansa Stark while being legitimate heir in many lords eyes is still married to Lannister and everyone knows it and she is also a girl who doesn't know how to wage a war. On the other hand Jon Snow even with Stark blood printed on his Ned Stark (who is still beloved in the North) face is still a bastard and can't interfere with claim of legitimate heirs (given that Robb's will is still unknown). One of them on his/her own can raise a lot of questions but two can make a decent claim.

So yeah.

Sansa and Jon meeting first of the pack is making quite a lot of sense from every point of view. It's not just that they are most distant siblings and thus make more interesting pair to interact, it's also very practical for GRRM if he wants Starks to go on the offensive - two of them combined can actually form a decent political power (in terms of both claim and set of skills). No other pair of Starks has that.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

What will Jaime's reaction and development in response to the probable slaughter of Freys and Lannisters ("Red Wedding 2.0") by Lady Stoneheart, and the rebellion of the Riverlands that will likely follow, be? While there are a lot of valonqar theories and theories of how he might survive the encounter with Stoneheart, but for some reason I don't recall any theories on this front. Might there be a realization that his family's, and his, actions in the Riverlands from AGoT forward were wrong?

Generally people who theorize about Red Wedding: Back 2 Tha Hood have this elaborate fantasy about Jaime being tied up and forced to watch. Usually in conjunction with the theory that he's already half mad because he had to kill Brienne, who sacrificed herself for him. I think the latter theory is highly contrary to both plot and character, so I've been rather doubtful of the former theory as well. (As well as it being in Riverrun: no this is not an invite for proponents of that element of the theory to tell me about it, I've seen it all before and nothing but TWOW will move me.) Personally, I think RW2: First Blood could be one of those downbeat refusal-of-catharsis moments GRRM does sometimes, which includes no direct POV, just hearing about the atrocities after the fact. It may be otherwise, but I'm still sure fans will not be remotely as satisfied as they expect to be.

Anyway. Jaime already knows the actions of his family in the Riverlands were wrong. His whole arc from ASOS onwards just rubbed his nose into it over and over and over again. Notably including his encounter with the Bloody Mummers his father brought to Westeros, notably returning to Harrenhal and finding the house of horrors Gregor had turned it into, notably the whole siege of Riverrun where he's hating the Freys, hating every moment he has to reward idiots like his uncle Emmon or a "scheming turncloak bitch" like Sybell Spicer. Just look at his conversation with Hoster Blackwood in ADWD:

"My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don't claim vengeance." "Their sons do," said Hoster, apologetically. "Not if you kill the sons as well. Ask the Casterlys about that if you doubt me. Ask Lord and Lady Tarbeck, or the Reynes of Castamere. Ask the Prince of Dragonstone." For an instant, the deep red clouds that crowned the western hills reminded him of Rhaegar's children, all wrapped up in crimson cloaks. "Is that why you killed all the Starks?" "Not all," said Jaime. "Lord Eddard's daughters live. One has just been wed. The other…" Brienne, where are you? Have you found her? "…if the gods are good, she'll forget she was a Stark. She'll wed some burly blacksmith or fat-faced innkeep, fill his house with children, and never need to fear that some knight might come along to smash their heads against a wall." "The gods are good," his hostage said, uncertainly. You go on believing that. Jaime let Honor feel his spurs.

This is not a man who is happy with his life and his or his family's actions. Especially considering he took the very first opportunity to abandon it all to help Brienne with her quest.

Now, if you mean, will Red Wedding 2: The Revenge cause Jaime to admit out loud that he and his dad done bad? *pfft* Not a clue in the world. Jaime's going to have a lot going on in TWOW, not in the least however he and Brienne escape (my personal theories including divine Bran intervention; there's a reason why the Brotherhood's cave is full of weirwood roots and has a weirwood throne just like Bloodraven's), and not in the least whatever the hell Cersei gets up to in KL and her probable flight to the Rock. I'm afraid that prejudging Jaime's personality changes that may come from all this is beyond my power, sorry.

________

@windriverdelta replied to your post “What will Jaime's reaction and development in...”:

Yeah, it was the "Now, if you mean, will Red Wedding 2: The Revenge cause Jaime to admit out loud that he and his dad done bad?" question - because for all what he knows and thinks, he's still doing these bad things.

​aha, so you're asking more like, will he stop. And like I said, Jaime's going to be very busy, I think his Riverlands enforcement tour will be well past done by the time he gets out of it all. Mind you, I don't think he's going to ever give up entirely on the Lannister state of mind (Tywin's ability to give people complexes is very hard to shake). But a lot of the Riverlands tour was guilt over being responsible for his father's death (since Jaime freed Tyrion and gave him a reason to kill Tywin), which undoubtely made him extra-Lannistery for a while. And also Jaime was trying to get away and deal with his Cersei issues (by using Ilyn as a rubber duck therapist who beats you up), so a lot of his um, complex actions greatly depend on what Cersei ends up doing and how that makes him feel. (Even if they've "broken up", they'll always be connected.) And however the valonqar plays out, alas...

[alicentofficial]

i know there are already twelve million valonqar theories but i so desperately need for the next 'younger and more beautiful queen' cersei fixates on to be myrcella. the way cersei views all her kids as extensions of herself but especially myrcella as an idealised version of a young cersei that she will immediately grow resentful of the moment myrcella gets back to kings landing and is not entirely under her thumb and doing everything she says. like. myrcella is literally at the center of a plot that will usurp cersei's power through overthrowing tommen. tyene in affc going YEAH SHES SOOOO BEAUTIFUL...... SHE WAS MADE TO BE QUEEN.... JUST LIKE HER MOTHER..........

[visenyaism]

Visenyaism ASOIAF Theory Rubric Table of Contents

I have done so many of these over the course of this semester that I think it makes sense to start organizing them now. Here's my list under the cut. I tried to put them in little subcategories so it'd be easier to get through at this point:

Weird Magic Shit:

Arrax left dragon eggs in the Winterfell Crypts

Maegor the Cruel was a blood magic baby

Euron dropped out of Bloodraven school

Bran serves the Great Other

The Starks are responsible for the Others

Danny Flint is Coldhands (REAL)

Theon is favored by the Drowned God

Secret Parentages (Rhaegar Targaryen you ARE the father)

Melisandre is Shiera & Bloodraven's kid

Robert Strong isn't Gregor Clegane but rather a descendant of Aemond and Alys Rivers

Pycelle Hill

Tywin is Rhaegar's biological father

Alyssa Targaryen was Alaric Stark's kid

R+L=D

Cersei and Jaime are Aerys II's children

Domeric Bolton was Brandon Stark's Bastard

Daemon is Aemond's real father

Aemond and Alys’ son invented House Whent

Brienne the Tall

Varys Blackfyre

Who Young Griff is Specifically:

YOUNG GRIFF BLACKFYRE SWEEP

Young Griff is a Brightflame

Young Griff is a random

Disguise Time

Quaithe is Shiera

Euron is warging the dusky woman

Assorted Political Conspiracies:

Red Wedding 2.0

Walda Frey's letters are code re: the red wedding

Oberyn poisoned Tywin

Lemongate

Mance Rayder wrote the Pink Letter

Barbery Dustin wrote the Pink Letter

Grand Maester Conspiracy

Galaza Galare is the Harpy

Predicting the Future:

Loras is alive

The Cannibal is alive and on Skagos

Jon will lose an eye

Jaime Lannister is the Valonqar

Jaime YMBQ

Horsie symbolism

Hound warged his horse to avoid dying

Silly Goofy Funtimes:

Jon has no secret Targaryen name but Lyanna gave him a secret Stark name before she died which happens to be theon (this one is mine)

Varys is a merman

Varys is 3 kids in a trenchcoat

Ghost is a good boy :)

Tyrek Lannister was/is a horse

Hater Corner

Bolt-On

Exodus Theory

The prestonjacobs one about dany lying about the red door

Euron is time-travelling Bran

Ramsay's mother poisoned Domeric Bolton

Viserys II was a random

Time-travelling fetus tyrion

Meera and Jon are twins and Jyana Reed is Ashara Dayne

Ser Shadrich is Howland Reed

Dunk is Tywin’s grandfather

[slymreddwyne]

My Valonqar Theory That I Just Wont Shut Up About:

It's Young Griff/Aegon VI/Faegon. Let me explain.

Maggy the Frog doesnt say "your Valonqar" just "THE Valonqar", implying that it doesnt have to be HER "little brother" (i.e. Tyrion or Jaime).

Also why does Maggy specifically use the High Valyrian word for "little brother"? She could have just said it in Westerosi if it wasnt important. Yknow who else is a (supposed) little brother who presumably has been taught High Valyrian? Young Griff.

I suspect that the Hands that choke Cersei out might not be literal hands, but Hands of the King (perhaps YG will name both Joncon and Varys as co-hands? Or Joncon's greyscaled hands will infect her, and it will eventually spread to her throat, asphyxiating her).

[milquetoastasoiaf]

I’m thinking about that one theory that the Valonqar referring to “a little sibling” as opposed to “little brother” means that Arya could be the little sibling that ends Cersei, but that she does it while wearing Jaime’s face and how one of the details we know about Arya is that she is left handed and that Jaime loses his sword hand (his right hand) so he’s been retraining using his other hand (his left) and where did all this tin foil come from?

[atopvisenyashill]

Distraction Ask (sorry this is ever so slightly about those blond people)

I just wanted to say, as someone who would consider herself an HOTD fan first and foremost, I absolutely love your page. All your critiques of the show are in good faith (I've agreed occasionally) and you just have very good takes generally.

How do you think Cersei goes out in the books? Who will take her down?

firstly, thank you so much!!! and yes, i try to come at hotd from the frame of "how do you adapt this to tell a good story" and not "how do you adapt this so my faves look the best" which is like the main issue with the way people talk about hotd lol.

i debate this SO MUCH. okay so here is my thought process basically-

will the valonqar be as literal as everyone assumes?

who the fuck is the younger more beautiful queen?

what is the ending that would drive cersei the most crazy?

the thing about both the ymbq and the valonqar is that it just makes no goddamn sense if it isn't an answer that is a) obvious to cersei and b) relevant to cersei. all those theories about sandor or jojen or euron or whoever are missing the point. the prophecy is not about finding a loophole that will kill her, it is about how cersei's paranoia and fear brings about the exact ending she has been railing against since she heard maggy's prophecy.

so it's like. will the valonqar literally choke her? or metaphorically? our other prophecies speak in metaphor "a woman who was a fish" "a blue eyed king who cast no shadow" these are obvious but they're not literal. catelyn isn't literally a fish. cast no shadow is just as much about melisandre as it is about the shadowbbaby. etc etc. but "choke the life from you" is always taken as the valonqar will literally choke her to death. "oh well jaime dreams of killing her with his golden hand" and cersei also compares him to the stranger and the others, that doesn't literally make him made out of ice! this prophecy she gets is just soooo much more literal - she will have three blond children, they will be crowned, they will die, someone younger and hotter will usurp her, and then the valonqar will choke her. it's just like. it's crazy literal. so it's always one a struggle with.

and TIMELINE. WHOMST is even going to be kicking. WHEN would cersei be usurped. by young griff and joncon? the thing about that is it's like......what does it do emotionally for joncon to set off the pots of wildfire and send cersei fleeing to casterly rock? is arianne the ymbq here? is aegon lmao? so i wonder if she even comes across that group - i think it's more likely that before they can take the capital, dany unseats them both in one fell swoop. but that leaves like a lot of time. granted, we need both tommen and myrcella to die so who knows.

ALSO ALSO i think she's more likely to die in casterly rock than king's landing. one thing i feel much more confident about is that whatever unseats her from KL isn't going to kill her, merely drive her into the westerlands to casterly rock - AND THEN it's Cersei's final stand.

anyways so i guess my best guesses here are that i want cersei to be her own downfall. i want cersei to be the architect of her own demise. i want her to make a mistake and be the reason why she is taken down. who does it matters much less to me than cersei going out in flames of her own making! i think both tyrion and jaime are likely to play a role in this, i think it's not unlikely that some combination of brienne/sansa/arianne/dany are going to be involved as well (margaery is not the ymbq. why? because cersei thinks she is!). i think she's going to lose kl, then flee to casterly rock (maybe with the last of her kids, not sure), attempt a siege there, and get completely fucked, probably by a combination of jaime & tyrion fucking her over. i think it's most likely to be either dany or sansa that truly puts the nail in her coffin, but i don't want to discount brienne or arianne here, just for thematic & geographical reasons (they're closer than the north or fucking meereen). i remain unconvinced that the valonqar will literally choke her though i think positing that it's anyone other than jaime is silly. i also think the idea that cersei being The Lannister In Casterly Rock as it finally is breached and taken is too fucking good, and the idea that Tyrion might lann the clever it out from under her to give to one of his own descendants (SAILOR'S WIFE IS TYSHA TRUTHER FOREVER) is a really satisfying ending for her.

[melrosing]

When do you think Jaime will collect the Widow’s Wail from KL?

I think there are two possibilities??

Loras has the sword - this has been theorised since it’s mentioned in Cersei’s POV that Tommen gifts Loras a jewelled sword when he departs KL in AFFC. I honestly don’t think Cersei would notice Tommen handing over Widow’s Wail, so makes sense it goes unremarked upon. Anyway, if that’s the case, it just means the sword has to make his way to Jaime somehow - and given the potential ambiguity around Loras’ condition plus future within the plot, plus the fact that really GRRM could orchestrate any manner of things to get the sword from Loras to Jaime (like how he gets Needle back to Arya), this doesn’t seem impossible at all.

Jaime goes to KL, is or is not the valonqar, acquires the sword whilst there and heads North. This seems more likely but also makes the whole matter of Jaime and Cersei’s endings murkier?? If Jaime is not the valonqar, that means he goes to KL, perhaps reckons with Cersei and then walks away, acquires the sword and fucks off North. If he is the valonqar, he kills Cersei and fucks off North. I’ve never been a great believer in the whole jc ‘born together/die together’ ending, I think it’s a belief exists to be contradicted and also the fact that the valonqar prophecy exists at all more or less precludes it (like they cannot die together if Cersei is already dead, and I don’t see Jaime’s story heading towards suicide at all - he’s been in that place already and moved onwards). And what’s more, I can’t imagine Cersei dying before the torch of KL (rather, I think she will certainly have a hand in that). So therefore - what the fuck is going on here lol. Widow’s Wail has a role to play in the Long Night, I think everyone feels clear on that, and I’ve talked before about how I feel it is practically confirmed by GRRM himself that Jaime is getting that sword. So what I mean to say is what does Jaime acquiring the sword in KL suggest about the timing of other surrounding events, and what’s more what does it suggest about the endings of Jaime and Cersei themselves?? Jaime getting his hands on Widow’s Wail is a relatively small plot point but the logistics of it have broad implications. So whilst I do tend to think that the Loras theory is a little bit of a reach, Jaime acquiring it in KL kind if asks more questions than it answers….