#us consumer price index cpi

[monicascot]

Weekly Overview: Chinese data still not convincing as to a recovery

In today's video, we'll be diving into some crucial topics impacting the global economy. We'll start by discussing the recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Then we'll shift our focus to China, examining the concerning signs of a slowdown in their post-COVID recovery. Additionally, we'll explore the economic situation in New Zealand, which has entered a recession.

[bitchesgetriches]

Inflation is Not Created Equally

[collapsedsquid]

It starts with the simple question of top-line price. There’s a funny caveat in the method the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to determine the cost of smartphones for its Consumer Price Index. Smartphones, like a lot of other things, have been getting more expensive. They’re not eggs or gas or Coke — you don’t think about their prices every week — but there’s a good chance you buy one every few years. The cheapest version the iPhone now starts at $800; the cheapest version of the flagship model, $1,200. Let’s venture to say that people have noticed this and do not love it. Since 2018, though, BLS economists have specified that, actually, due to the “rapid rate of technological advancements and improved quality to consumers,” including, as an example, increases in screen resolution, smartphones need a “hedonic quality adjustment” before inclusion in the CPI. As a result, smartphone prices have been recorded, in an official way directly relevant to debates about the economy, as going down. Makes sense, maybe. Feels wrong, definitely.

Is funny to ocnsider this a "hedonic" adjustment, today's smart phones are in many ways superior goods to the smartphones of 10 years ago, it's the fun level that hasn't changed or even decreased.

[crazy-pages]

They do measure inflation based on the most commonly purchased goods like bread and eggs, not just consumer goods in general. It’s called the market basket, and it’s what the consumer price index, the most common measure of inflation, is based on.

(Sending this as an ask because it’s not the main point of the reblog chain.)

Yes...

The consumer price index does have subsets based around certain good categories, and it assumes that certain consumer goods like bread and eggs make up a certain fraction of consumer purchases. It is a weighted average, not just a naive average and I might not have made that clear.

But...

These subsets are not actual measurements of what people are literally taking out of the store in their grocery baskets. They are weighted averages of groups of goods which represent reasonable mock-ups of the kinds of things people typically purchase. The weighted averages do not change to reflect changes in purchasing habits in real time.

If people start eating more eggs because eggs are relatively cheap, and the price of eggs increases dramatically, the CPI will not accurately model the actual increase in food cost borne by people. If people stop consuming certain luxury foods and those luxury Foods drop in price to compensate, the CPI will actually register that as driving inflation down. Which is what's technically happening ... but if you think that represents anything positive for people's living situations and economic anxiety, I have a bridge to sell you.

The CPI is also is not an economic measure which contains information about how much food people are purchasing or the strain their food budget puts on their finances. So if CPI inflation goes up very high and then stabilizes, the CPI will not tell you if people handled the price increase well, or if they are outright buying and consuming less food to compensate.

So...

In other words, the CPI is good for creating a simple model to capture general trends in food price during normative periods where people's eating habits remain constant. It is an inadequate model for understanding economic stresses in highly non-normative periods during which consumption habits change rapidly, let alone the psychology of how people respond to that.

This is not to say the CPI cannot still be useful in such times, only that we must be careful how we use it. For example-

This still uses the CPI food index to capture food price information. But you will note that measured spending on food (adjusted for a general measure of inflation) remains relatively stable, while the CPI food index (again adjusted to be relative to a general measure of inflation) skyrockets. If the CPI food index was actually an accurate measure of what people are buying during this period of time, those two values would be matched. They are not.

What this tells us is that there is a substantial change in consumer purchasing habits from more expensive to less expensive food stuffs and/or towards buying less food in general, in a way that the static CPI food basket is not capturing.

Now there's two ways for the CPI to deal with this, but both of them represent flaws in trying to use the CPI to capture economic stress information. First, the CPI can of course just choose to continue using its existing weighted average. This would contain information about price increases of the things people used to buy in the proportions they used to. This is useful, but means you're missing out on the reality of what people actually buy now. If the food basket gets too out of date, the CPI measure of inflation might even become completely incorrect.

Second, the CPI could renormalize the food basket so its ongoing measures of inflation reflect the actual reality of consumers. But this would be burying information about the extent to which price increases forced behavioral changes, which is just as much a measure of economic stress as net expenditure changes. Either way it is an insufficient measure of financial stress during times of rapid changes in patterns of consumption.

The CPI in the context of other measurements is valuable, but is inadequate in its own right. And to fully capture quantitative measurements of economic food stress, you would need to use more detailed economic measures. These would be things like what fraction of people's budget is made up by food (food burden), and more subjective measurements like asking people about the degree of financial pressure they feel at the grocery store or how constrained they feel by grocery prices.

A better measurement of the economic anxiety people experience in response to rising food prices would then not be comparing the CPI and wages, but identifying value classes of food and their proportional consumption, or comparing a recent average of temporal variance in CPI food index prices with a recent food basket as a percentage of after-cost-of-living spending budgets. You know, the things people actually experience economic anxiety through, eating cheaper food and fretting over if they'll be able to pay the bills next month.

[centfx]

Centfx

The price of gold surges before Fed Powell's speech

During Tuesday's early European session, the US dollar (USD) is declining, which helps the gold price (XAU/USD) gain momentum. As speculators increase their wagers that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates in September in response to weak US job data last week, the downside for the precious metal may be contained. Furthermore, the cautious attitude among the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unpredictabilities in France could raise the price of gold, a classic safe-haven asset. However, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) decision to forgo buying gold for a second consecutive month in June may push down gold prices. Gold dealers will keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony before the Congress, in addition to the remarks made by Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr of the Fed. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures will be the main focus on Thursday.

centfx #forexknowledge #forexlife #forexlondon #forexcommunity

[mightyflamethrower]

Joe Did That: Inflation Costs Americans an Extra $1000 Monthly

CATHERINE SALGADO | 5:14 PM ON APRIL 12, 2024

Thanks to the wonders of Bidenomics, the average American is spending over a thousand dollars extra a month. Fortunately, Biden is focused on important things — like funding jihad supporters in Gaza and paying off student loans with taxpayer money the government cannot spare.

Fox Business highlighted the $1,069 cost increase compared to three years ago before Joe Biden’s disastrous economic policies drove up inflation higher than Hunter Biden smoking Parmesan cheese. Inflation has allegedly fallen since 2022, but the context for that statement is that inflation is still rising, just at a supposedly slower rate — inflation went up about 18% under Biden. You still have to shell out more money for the basic costs of living than you did two or three years ago, which is why Americans are increasingly burdened with credit card debt.

As of February, two-thirds of full-time American workers said that their income had not kept pace with inflation. Real wages have been steadily dropping since Biden took office.

From Fox Business:

The typical U.S. household needed to pay $227 more a month in March to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to calculations from Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi shared with FOX Business. Americans are paying on average $784 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,069 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began… when compared with January 2021, shortly before the inflation crisis began, prices remain up a stunning 18.94%.

Food, child care, and rent — the necessities — are devastatingly expensive under the Biden administration. Fox quoted Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant, “Inflation has not just stalled, but it is moving in the wrong direction.” Unfortunately, low-income Americans — those who can least afford to spend more — are of course hardest hit by rising costs.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the costs of what is supposed to be a representative “basket of goods,” continues to be well above the rate that the U.S. had before the economically damaging COVID-19 pandemic, Fox explained. The necessities mentioned above (food, rent, child care) are significantly more expensive than they were just a year ago. 

“Housing and gasoline costs were the biggest drivers of inflation last month, accounting for more than half of the total monthly increase,” Fox added. Food and auto insurance costs also went up, with the latter at a sobering 22.2% increase over the same time in 2023. Inflation is causing Americans to use up savings and increasingly rack up credit card debt to meet expenses, a situation that is both risky and unsustainable.

Credit card debt in America reached a new record high by the end of December 2023, Fox Business noted, citing data from the New York Federal Reserve.

Bidenomics has been nothing but a catastrophe for ordinary Americans, costing them ever more money even as their real wages decrease.

[freetheshit-outofyou]

Wow Cat, entitled much? College is not a guarantee to a "comfortable living". It's a path chosen by the user in hopes of turning that sheep skin into a livelihood that pays well. It isn't always the end result and 9 times out of 10 it's because the person who went to college didn't take into account what the degree's median pay would be. I can't tell you how many times a person has sat across from me and said something to the effect of "I have "X" degree and that should be worth something more, something extra." When I asked them what the median wage of that degree is their eyes would glaze over and there head would tilt like a puppy with no answer. It's because these people never looked into what their chosen degree path COULD MAKE, they just assume the sheep skin means more money. WRONG. Let's take Cat here as an example: Cat is going to graduate with a degree in Political Science and Geography, you know two of the 7 Social Science degrees (History, political science, geography, economics, psychology, sociology, and anthropology.) and 4th in line or middle of the road when it comes to money making degrees.

Per a Georgetown University study, her chosen degree paths starts at about 33k a year with a median wage of 60k a year, but she wants to start at 50k, because college reason. Now lets get to her inflation argument that bypasses huge things to make her argument work like the Consumer Price Index and the actual inflation rate. Cat was born in 2002, not 1982 so she knows shit about living in the 80's or the 70's. In 1980 the inflation rate was 13.9% in 1981 it was 11.8%, for the first 19 years of her life the highest inflation rate that her parents, not her, had to deal with was 4.3% in 2008. 2002's was 7.5% and 2023 6.4%, Guess what happened in 2022, our government went on a spending spree that has not stopped. The average inflation rate for her entire life is 2.3%. (All of the parentage are based of January numbers for each year rather than the highest or lowest for the entire year. Years like 2009 and 2015 where inflation rates were in negative percentages I made them zero %.) Side note: before 2009 you have to go back to 1955 before you find negative inflation rates again. From 1970 to 1990 the average inflation rate was 6.8285714285714%, just shy of 3 time higher than what she is complaining about, and her folks did it on a lower wage. Enter the Consumer Price index. From 2002 to today in 2023 the average Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is 2.5304347826087%, and from 1970 to 1990 it was 6.2714285714286%, you guessed it, almost 3 times higher again. Of course the governments reckless spending and financing wars all over hell in back has started impacting EVERYONES bottom line, Cat is apparently just learning this. Cat, you need to earn a comfortable living, not have it handed to you. You need to work your ass up from the starting line not start closer to the top. It's not a Boomer, Gen X, Gen Z or what ever else is out there thing, its a you have never worked in your field thing, you just might suck at it thing and employers are not going to pay you on the work you might be able to do or the work ethic you might have, they are going to pay you as an employee that has limited work history, get used to it. I was born in 1970 got my first job, one of only 3 I ever had, in 1986. I did not earn over 41k a year until 2009, that was with a family of 4. Between my Bride and I we earned 4 1/2 degrees and took on no debt. How did we do it, work and save, living within our means and a budget. Guess what effects us much less becasue we pay cash for things, inflation. Not holding debt frees you up to do so many more things with your cash on hand. It's was less about inflation, although that is killing just about everyone now and more to do with piss poor advanced planning on Cat's part. Example: Had Cat looked into STEM degrees, you know a field short of female applicants, where the median starting yearly wage is 43k, with an expected yearly median wage of 76k per year, her outlook for earned wages would be much different. So, in short, Cat is pointing her anger at the wrong place, she shot herself in the foot taking on degrees with limited earning potential and in over saturated job markets rather than a more technical, less saturated job field that pays more all the way around.

“I think that if you go to college, you deserve to be able to make enough to live comfortably,” she asserts. “I think if you don’t go to college you should be able to make enough to live comfortably.” Comfortably, is relative to the person, and has more to do with, well comfort than economics. That's not how life works Cat. Maybe you should have paid a little more attention to those finance and economics classes.

[bitcoincables]

Bitcoin Price Plummets 77% in Asian Session, Triggering $200 Million in Liquidations

Bitcoin Price Crashes 77% in Asian Session, Sets Off $200 Million in Liquidations 😱

Bitcoin took a sudden nosedive during the Asian session, dropping 7.74% and briefly touching the $40,400 mark. This unexpected drop led to the liquidation of nearly $200 million worth of positions, causing significant market volatility. With the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, high volatility is anticipated to continue.

Higher interest rates often have an adverse impact on the price of gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal rather than investing in interest-bearing assets or depositing cash in a bank. Additionally, they generally strengthen the US Dollar, which in turn lowers the price of gold since it is denominated in dollars. It will be crucial to monitor the Fed's interest rate decisions and their implications on the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $42,289, hovering around the midpoint of its 77% crash during the bear market. This price level is pivotal and may trigger significant take-profit or sell orders, which could result in market-wide liquidations. Market participants should remain cautious as the struggle between bulls and bears intensifies. It is worth noting that a major correction in Bitcoin price is not expected until it reaches the 62% retracement level at $48,733. However, today's movements could catch many overeager investors off-guard. The $50,000 psychological level may be a plausible area for market-wide profit-taking to occur.

Read the original article #Bitcoin #cryptocurrency #BitcoinPrice #marketvolatility

[monicascot]

Weekly Overview: Chinese data still not convincing as to a recovery

In today's video, we'll be diving into some crucial topics impacting the global economy. We'll start by discussing the recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

[atlanticcanada]

'Nobody can live on that': Anti-poverty group disappointed with N.B. budget

An anti-poverty group in New Brunswick is disappointed with what it saw in Tuesday’s budget.

Organizers with the New Brunswick Common Front for Social Justice say they were let down by what they called a meagre raise to social assistance rates in the province.

Janelle LeBlanc, the provincial coordinator for the organization, said the extra $40 a month the Higgs government is pledging for people living on social assistance is nowhere near enough to cover the rising cost of living.

“In 2021, the social assistance rates in New Brunswick were the lowest in Canada and they are still some of the lowest in Canada,” said LeBlanc in an interview Wednesday.

“People who are deemed employable get $593 a month and people with disabilities get $792. Nobody can live on that. It’s under the poverty line. They live in extreme poverty.”

She says her group has been asking for social assistance rates to be raised to the poverty line.

“We were hoping that they would be raised a few hundred dollars, at least, and not just based on CPI [Consumer Price Index].”

The Higgs government tabled a $12.2-billion budget Tuesday that forecasts a small surplus and promises a funding boost to help stabilize the hurting health-care sector.

In a news release sent Wednesday, New Brunswick Common Front for Social Justice Community Co-chair Robert MacKay said people living on social assistance can't hold their heads above water.

“While the rates are indexed to the Consumer Price Index, it is not enough to cover basic necessities,” said MacKay.

The organization was also disappointed about the lack of investment in affordable housing.

LeBlanc said they expected the budget to have funding for additional social housing units because the waiting list for public housing has doubled between 2020 and 2022.

“Last fall, they made an announcement that we would get 380 social housing units. It’s the first time in 40 years the government is actually investing in social housing. That’s a great first step. We were just hoping to have extra investments in building social housing units,” said LeBlanc.

LeBlanc believes the lack of measures to help with the soaring cost of living is a big concern.

“I know some other groups are content with what’s in the budget, but for us, for poverty, there’s no permanent solutions to answer any of the social problems we have today,” she said.

“We’re disappointed. We’re going to continue working, continue meeting with ministers, continue meeting with MLAs and continue submitting documents to the government and organizing actions.”

LeBlanc called the budget a “missed opportunity” to introduce higher taxes on the super-wealthy and to improve living conditions for people struggling with day-to-day expenses.

With files from the Canadian Press

from CTV News - Atlantic https://ift.tt/rWXKogk

[principleofplenitude]

The official poverty measure is what’s sometimes known as an “absolute” poverty measure. Measures like this generally only adjust their thresholds for inflation. Many are based on less arbitrary numbers than “what people spent on food in 1955,” and many use different measurements of inflation, since a lot of economists think the Consumer Price Index overstates price increases compared to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) or chained CPI measures. But they fundamentally have a lot in common with the OPM’s approach: They set a dollar threshold for who is and isn’t poor and stick to it. Absolute poverty measures are crystal clear about what has happened to poverty since the 1960s: It plummeted. The below chart shows three different absolute measures, all of which use expansive income definitions, unlike the official rate. All three have fallen dramatically. The primary case for absolute measures like these is that they’re easy to interpret. Because the thresholds only change due to inflation, changes in the poverty rate only happen because people near the bottom get richer or poorer. If poverty falls, it’s because some low-income people gained more money or resources. If it increases, it’s because some low-income people lost out. Insofar as those kinds of material changes at the bottom are the main thing one cares about, absolute measures can be helpful. As a group of Columbia researchers argued in 2016, absolute measures are “more useful for establishing how families’ resources have changed against a fixed benchmark.” Applied to the US, the takeaway is that many fewer people are living on a very small amount of money than was the case in the 1960s. But many poverty scholars prefer to use what are called “relative” measures. Such measures set the threshold as a percentage of the country in question’s median income (usually 50 or 60 percent). Most rich countries other than the US define poverty in this way. The European Union, for instance, uses what it calls an “at risk of poverty” rate, defined as the share of residents in a country living on less than 60 percent of the median disposable income. The United Kingdom uses a “households below average income” (HBAI) statistic, with the main threshold set to 60 percent of median income. The case for relative measures is that poverty is socially defined, and “being in poverty” is usually thought of as people not being able to exist with the level of comfort that is normal in the society in which they live. A common definition, from the British scholar Peter Townsend, posits that poverty is “the absence or inadequacy of those diets, amenities, standards, services and activities which are common or customary in society.” Commonness or customariness are relative attributes, not absolute ones. Some, like sociologist David Brady, have also argued for relative measures on the grounds that they correlate better with self-reported mental and physical health and well-being. Looked at in relative terms, poverty hasn’t fallen in the US in recent decades. It’s stagnated.

“Why even brilliant scholars misunderstand poverty in America” from Vox

[starseedfxofficial]

Why the BTCEUR Pair and PPI Producer Price Index Are Your Secret Weapons in Forex Trading Trading in the Forex market is like navigating a jungle: thrilling, unpredictable, and not for the faint of heart. But what if you could wield two powerful tools to cut through the noise and uncover hidden opportunities? Enter the BTCEUR currency pair and the PPI (Producer Price Index) — an unlikely duo that can provide critical insights and improve your trading game. BTCEUR: The Cryptocurrency-Forex Hybrid You’re Ignoring What Makes BTCEUR Special? The BTCEUR pair offers a unique blend of cryptocurrency volatility and Forex stability. Unlike major currency pairs like EURUSD or GBPJPY, BTCEUR is influenced not just by traditional Forex market trends but also by Bitcoin’s erratic behavior. This hybrid nature can create opportunities for traders who understand the underlying forces at play. - Fun Fact: Trading BTCEUR is like ordering a spicy dish in an otherwise bland menu of Forex pairs. The flavor is bold, but you better have the right stomach for it. Hidden Patterns and Strategies - Correlation with Bitcoin Halving Cycles: Bitcoin’s halving events directly impact its price, which in turn influences BTCEUR. Keep an eye on upcoming halving dates and Bitcoin’s historical reactions. - EUR Sensitivity to ECB Policies: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions significantly affect the Euro’s strength. Combine this with Bitcoin’s movements, and you have a pair that demands close attention to both crypto news and traditional economic indicators. - Volatility Exploitation: Use Bollinger Bands to capture breakout opportunities. Given Bitcoin’s price spikes, BTCEUR often shows significant deviations from its average range, making it a scalper’s paradise. PPI Producer Price Index: The Crystal Ball for Market Trends Decoding PPI and Its Impact The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers. Think of it as a preview of inflation trends before they hit the Consumer Price Index (CPI). - Why It Matters: - Higher PPI values suggest increasing costs for producers, often passed on to consumers, hinting at future inflation. - Forex traders use PPI to predict central bank responses, especially in economies like the Eurozone, where inflation control is paramount. How to Leverage PPI Data - Compare Country-Specific PPI Data: For BTCEUR, monitor both U.S. and Eurozone PPI reports. Divergences in producer inflation between these regions can create actionable trading signals. - Spotting Trend Reversals: A sudden spike in PPI may precede tightening monetary policy. For example, if Eurozone PPI surges unexpectedly, the ECB might raise interest rates, strengthening the Euro against Bitcoin. - Pairing with Technical Analysis: Overlay PPI announcements with technical patterns like Fibonacci retracements on BTCEUR. This combination can highlight high-probability entry and exit points. The Ninja Tactics for Combining BTCEUR and PPI 1. Time Your Trades Around PPI Announcements Use an economic calendar to track PPI release dates for the Eurozone and the U.S. Enter trades on BTCEUR when PPI data deviates significantly from forecasts, creating volatility spikes. 2. Diversify with BTCEUR in Your Portfolio Including BTCEUR can add a layer of diversification, especially when traditional currency pairs are stuck in low volatility periods. Its unique characteristics can act as a hedge against stagnation in other trades. 3. Analyze Bitcoin’s Sentiment Bitcoin’s sentiment (e.g., fear and greed index) often foreshadows movements in BTCEUR. Combine this with PPI trends for a holistic trading approach. 4. Scalping Opportunities Given BTCEUR’s volatility, short-term traders can scalp around significant economic data like PPI. Set tight stop losses and use trailing stops to protect gains. Pro Tips for Mastering This Strategy - Stay Updated: Bookmark reliable economic calendars and crypto news sources to track relevant data. - Risk Management: Allocate only a small portion of your portfolio to BTCEUR trades due to its inherent volatility. - Test and Tweak: Use a demo account to backtest strategies combining PPI data and BTCEUR trading. - Join the Community: Collaborate with experienced traders in platforms like the StarseedFX Community for daily insights and tips. Real-World Example: Turning PPI Insights into Profitable BTCEUR Trades Case Study: January 2024 - Event: Eurozone’s PPI unexpectedly rose by 1.5% MoM, signaling potential inflationary pressures. - Action: Traders anticipated an ECB rate hike, leading to a stronger Euro. - Outcome: BTCEUR dropped by 3.2% within 24 hours as Bitcoin struggled to maintain its value against a surging Euro. - Takeaway: Quick analysis and execution can turn PPI data into actionable trading opportunities. Conclusion: Empower Your Trading with BTCEUR and PPI Trading BTCEUR with insights from the PPI is like wielding a dual-edged sword. The combination offers unique opportunities for those who can navigate its complexities. By understanding the interplay between Bitcoin’s volatility and economic indicators like PPI, you can develop a trading edge that leaves other traders in the dust. Ready to dive deeper? Access exclusive tools and insights at StarseedFX and start transforming your trading journey today. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

[holopiscom]

Harga Bitcoin Terbang Tinggi, Tembus Rp 1,6 Miliar

JAKARTA – Harga Bitcoin (BTC) melonjak tajam setelah dirilisnya data Consumer Price Index (CPI) Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk Desember 2024. Inflasi tahunan tercatat sesuai ekspektasi di level 2,9 persen, memberikan dampak positif pada pasar kripto. Kenaikan ini membuat nilai Bitcoin melampaui US$ 102.000 atau sekitar Rp 1,6 miliar. Tidak hanya Bitcoin, aset kripto lain juga ikut terdongkrak,…

[captain-kit-adventuress]

Note: I'm not trying to prove myself "right," I'm not sure there is any way to actually do so, but I think this is a fascinating conversation and wanted to add my two cents!

I don't think it's as far off as maybe one might assume. If one uses the US Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI Inflation Calculator, that number will take inflation in account, of course, but also the Consumer Price Index. Unfortunately, it only goes back to 1913, but that's because we don't have as reliable of income records before then–1913 was the first year income taxes were standardised across the US; before that it was pretty haphazard and very geography-dependent.

According to the calculator, $20 in Jan 1913 USD is the equivalent of $629.42 in Jan 2024 USD. Even taking into account a 7-10 year timing difference, It still may be a bit off, because inflation is always an average to begin with, and an index is a complicated bit of averaging as well, so both of those are subject to the same sorts of flaws any average is subject to, like outliers, population densities, etc. Or like, the fact that the US wouldn't even have all of the current states until 1950 so the data would still be expanding at that point. So there are issues, yes, but I think it's probably as representative as mathematics and incomplete pricing records can make it.

I would also argue, for example, that the suits being sold in 1904-06 were probably a lot nicer than a $600 suit of today. So the price maybe isn't comparable, but is the quality? A quick search leads me to see that an absolute clearance Brooks Brothers suit, originally just shy of $1,300, is now selling for $699. That doesn't include finished sleeves or hems–though that makes sense–and I can't seem to find whether or not alterations are included in the purchase price or not. However, that's for off-the-rack suiting. For a completely bespoke suit, it starts at $1,000, roughly, and again I don't know if that includes the labour or not. How close to Brooks Brothers would, say, a department-store suit have been, in terms of comparable quality? Or even just your average tailor if you went that route?

(From what I can see, the off-the-rack stuff at BB, in some cases, may use what I believe is fusible interfacing (I only have marketing puffery to extrapolate from) which is not exactly what I would consider a high-quality material but I'm also not a sewist of any kind, I just know some basics. And those buttons definitely looked plastic because you can bet they'd talk it up if they were anything nicer.)

Then there's the idea that these indices and comparable historical price lists were made at a time when the general pricing of, say, grocery items vs clothing vs anything was so, so different from today. That rule about rent taking up no more than 1/3 of your monthly income? Probably applicable in 1904-06, not so much today. Food, I think, would have been a lot more expensive then, as a sort of ratio of [expense] to monthly income, especially items like meat and dairy, but we would consider it dirt-cheap by just the amount.

*shrug* pricing in any era is an art, not a science.

Whatever the actual value of the food, I think we can all agree that's a shit-ton of ham and eggs lol.

The Philadelphia Inquirer, Pennsylvania, July 29, 1904

[accapitalmarket]

Dow Records Best Day Since November, Oil Charges On

US stocks jumped Wednesday as core consumer price inflation unexpectedly fell in December, easing concerns that firmer prices could force the Federal Reserve into a prolonged pause on further rate cuts.

The US headline consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in December, slightly higher than the 0.3% rise in the prior month, while, year-on-year, CPI was up 2.9%, ahead from 2.7% in November.

However, the core CPI, which strips out volatile components like fuel and food, was only up 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.2% year-on-year, below expectations for 0.3% and 3.3%, respectively. On Tuesday, the December producer price index (PPI) of wholesale inflation raised hopes that the CPI wouldn’t come in too hot.

There have been concerns about sticky inflation, particularly after last week’s very strong December payrolls data. President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose strict trade tariffs have also fueled worries around price pressures.

Markets are expecting a much slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, with the Fed in December forecasting just two reductions this year. There had also been fears before today’s release that the Fed may actually be forced to raise rates due to persistent price pressures.

At the stock market close in New York, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrials Average was up 1.7% at 43,221, while the broader S&P 500 index gained 1.8% at 5,949, and the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.5% to 19,511.

US30Roll H1

Tech giants rallied strongly after recent falls, with AI chipmaker Nvidia up 3.4%, while Apple gained 2.0%, and Goggle-owner Alphabet rose 3.1%.

Strong gains by a plethora of banking issues, following their latest quarterly earnings, also provided a boost for the market.

Citi took on 6.5% after the lender swung to a quarterly profit and saw its earnings per share beat market expectations. JPMorgan Chase rose 2.0% after the investment banking giant posted record annual profit as its dealmakers and traders reaped a windfall from rebounding markets in the fourth quarter.

Goldman Sachs added 6.0% after the investment bank’s profit more than doubled in the fourth quarter, driven by strong reading results. Wells Fargo gained 6.7% after the lender reported better-than-expected results in the fourth quarter, buoyed by stronger investment banking earnings.

Bank of New York Mellon also exceeded forecasts with 11% revenue growth, sending its shares 8.0% higher. And BlackRock rose 3.3% after reporting a beat on both the top and bottom lines as its assets hit a record high in Q4.

Away from banks, Intuitive Surgical jumped 7.7% higher after it reported stronger-than-expected fourth quarter earnings. And Beacon Roofing Supply also rose 7.7% after the building products distributor said QXO had made an offer worth $11 billion to buy the company.

On the commodity front, oil prices jumped on Wednesday after data showed a on large draw on US crude stockpiles and potential supply disruptions from new sanctions on Russia, although a temporary halt to the war in Gaza limited the advance.

USOILRoll Daily

US crude inventories fell to their lowest level since 2022 as exports rose and imports fell, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, released on Wednesday, while gasoline and distillates rose more than expected during the week.

US West Texas Intermediate was up 3.8% to $80.45 a barrel, while UK Brent crude gained 3.2% at $82.45 a barrel.

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Nasdaq jumps 2%, S&P rises as core CPI inflation cools; yields slide

Spencer Platt/Getty Images News The major US stock averages rose on Wednesday afternoon, with bank shares is growing, and the softer-than-expected core inflation reading supports the view that the Federal Reserve should continue lowering interest rates. The Report on the consumer price index for December also Source link