#us consumer price index cpi

[monicascot]

Weekly Overview: Chinese data still not convincing as to a recovery

In today's video, we'll be diving into some crucial topics impacting the global economy. We'll start by discussing the recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Then we'll shift our focus to China, examining the concerning signs of a slowdown in their post-COVID recovery. Additionally, we'll explore the economic situation in New Zealand, which has entered a recession.

[collapsedsquid]

It starts with the simple question of top-line price. There’s a funny caveat in the method the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to determine the cost of smartphones for its Consumer Price Index. Smartphones, like a lot of other things, have been getting more expensive. They’re not eggs or gas or Coke — you don’t think about their prices every week — but there’s a good chance you buy one every few years. The cheapest version the iPhone now starts at $800; the cheapest version of the flagship model, $1,200. Let’s venture to say that people have noticed this and do not love it. Since 2018, though, BLS economists have specified that, actually, due to the “rapid rate of technological advancements and improved quality to consumers,” including, as an example, increases in screen resolution, smartphones need a “hedonic quality adjustment” before inclusion in the CPI. As a result, smartphone prices have been recorded, in an official way directly relevant to debates about the economy, as going down. Makes sense, maybe. Feels wrong, definitely.

Is funny to ocnsider this a "hedonic" adjustment, today's smart phones are in many ways superior goods to the smartphones of 10 years ago, it's the fun level that hasn't changed or even decreased.

[crazy-pages]

They do measure inflation based on the most commonly purchased goods like bread and eggs, not just consumer goods in general. It’s called the market basket, and it’s what the consumer price index, the most common measure of inflation, is based on.

(Sending this as an ask because it’s not the main point of the reblog chain.)

Yes...

The consumer price index does have subsets based around certain good categories, and it assumes that certain consumer goods like bread and eggs make up a certain fraction of consumer purchases. It is a weighted average, not just a naive average and I might not have made that clear.

But...

These subsets are not actual measurements of what people are literally taking out of the store in their grocery baskets. They are weighted averages of groups of goods which represent reasonable mock-ups of the kinds of things people typically purchase. The weighted averages do not change to reflect changes in purchasing habits in real time.

If people start eating more eggs because eggs are relatively cheap, and the price of eggs increases dramatically, the CPI will not accurately model the actual increase in food cost borne by people. If people stop consuming certain luxury foods and those luxury Foods drop in price to compensate, the CPI will actually register that as driving inflation down. Which is what's technically happening ... but if you think that represents anything positive for people's living situations and economic anxiety, I have a bridge to sell you.

The CPI is also is not an economic measure which contains information about how much food people are purchasing or the strain their food budget puts on their finances. So if CPI inflation goes up very high and then stabilizes, the CPI will not tell you if people handled the price increase well, or if they are outright buying and consuming less food to compensate.

So...

In other words, the CPI is good for creating a simple model to capture general trends in food price during normative periods where people's eating habits remain constant. It is an inadequate model for understanding economic stresses in highly non-normative periods during which consumption habits change rapidly, let alone the psychology of how people respond to that.

This is not to say the CPI cannot still be useful in such times, only that we must be careful how we use it. For example-

This still uses the CPI food index to capture food price information. But you will note that measured spending on food (adjusted for a general measure of inflation) remains relatively stable, while the CPI food index (again adjusted to be relative to a general measure of inflation) skyrockets. If the CPI food index was actually an accurate measure of what people are buying during this period of time, those two values would be matched. They are not.

What this tells us is that there is a substantial change in consumer purchasing habits from more expensive to less expensive food stuffs and/or towards buying less food in general, in a way that the static CPI food basket is not capturing.

Now there's two ways for the CPI to deal with this, but both of them represent flaws in trying to use the CPI to capture economic stress information. First, the CPI can of course just choose to continue using its existing weighted average. This would contain information about price increases of the things people used to buy in the proportions they used to. This is useful, but means you're missing out on the reality of what people actually buy now. If the food basket gets too out of date, the CPI measure of inflation might even become completely incorrect.

Second, the CPI could renormalize the food basket so its ongoing measures of inflation reflect the actual reality of consumers. But this would be burying information about the extent to which price increases forced behavioral changes, which is just as much a measure of economic stress as net expenditure changes. Either way it is an insufficient measure of financial stress during times of rapid changes in patterns of consumption.

The CPI in the context of other measurements is valuable, but is inadequate in its own right. And to fully capture quantitative measurements of economic food stress, you would need to use more detailed economic measures. These would be things like what fraction of people's budget is made up by food (food burden), and more subjective measurements like asking people about the degree of financial pressure they feel at the grocery store or how constrained they feel by grocery prices.

A better measurement of the economic anxiety people experience in response to rising food prices would then not be comparing the CPI and wages, but identifying value classes of food and their proportional consumption, or comparing a recent average of temporal variance in CPI food index prices with a recent food basket as a percentage of after-cost-of-living spending budgets. You know, the things people actually experience economic anxiety through, eating cheaper food and fretting over if they'll be able to pay the bills next month.

[centfx]

Centfx

The price of gold surges before Fed Powell's speech

During Tuesday's early European session, the US dollar (USD) is declining, which helps the gold price (XAU/USD) gain momentum. As speculators increase their wagers that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates in September in response to weak US job data last week, the downside for the precious metal may be contained. Furthermore, the cautious attitude among the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unpredictabilities in France could raise the price of gold, a classic safe-haven asset. However, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) decision to forgo buying gold for a second consecutive month in June may push down gold prices. Gold dealers will keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony before the Congress, in addition to the remarks made by Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr of the Fed. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures will be the main focus on Thursday.

centfx #forexknowledge #forexlife #forexlondon #forexcommunity

[mightyflamethrower]

Joe Did That: Inflation Costs Americans an Extra $1000 Monthly

CATHERINE SALGADO | 5:14 PM ON APRIL 12, 2024

Thanks to the wonders of Bidenomics, the average American is spending over a thousand dollars extra a month. Fortunately, Biden is focused on important things — like funding jihad supporters in Gaza and paying off student loans with taxpayer money the government cannot spare.

Fox Business highlighted the $1,069 cost increase compared to three years ago before Joe Biden’s disastrous economic policies drove up inflation higher than Hunter Biden smoking Parmesan cheese. Inflation has allegedly fallen since 2022, but the context for that statement is that inflation is still rising, just at a supposedly slower rate — inflation went up about 18% under Biden. You still have to shell out more money for the basic costs of living than you did two or three years ago, which is why Americans are increasingly burdened with credit card debt.

As of February, two-thirds of full-time American workers said that their income had not kept pace with inflation. Real wages have been steadily dropping since Biden took office.

From Fox Business:

The typical U.S. household needed to pay $227 more a month in March to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to calculations from Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi shared with FOX Business. Americans are paying on average $784 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,069 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began… when compared with January 2021, shortly before the inflation crisis began, prices remain up a stunning 18.94%.

Food, child care, and rent — the necessities — are devastatingly expensive under the Biden administration. Fox quoted Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant, “Inflation has not just stalled, but it is moving in the wrong direction.” Unfortunately, low-income Americans — those who can least afford to spend more — are of course hardest hit by rising costs.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the costs of what is supposed to be a representative “basket of goods,” continues to be well above the rate that the U.S. had before the economically damaging COVID-19 pandemic, Fox explained. The necessities mentioned above (food, rent, child care) are significantly more expensive than they were just a year ago. 

“Housing and gasoline costs were the biggest drivers of inflation last month, accounting for more than half of the total monthly increase,” Fox added. Food and auto insurance costs also went up, with the latter at a sobering 22.2% increase over the same time in 2023. Inflation is causing Americans to use up savings and increasingly rack up credit card debt to meet expenses, a situation that is both risky and unsustainable.

Credit card debt in America reached a new record high by the end of December 2023, Fox Business noted, citing data from the New York Federal Reserve.

Bidenomics has been nothing but a catastrophe for ordinary Americans, costing them ever more money even as their real wages decrease.

[freetheshit-outofyou]

Wow Cat, entitled much? College is not a guarantee to a "comfortable living". It's a path chosen by the user in hopes of turning that sheep skin into a livelihood that pays well. It isn't always the end result and 9 times out of 10 it's because the person who went to college didn't take into account what the degree's median pay would be. I can't tell you how many times a person has sat across from me and said something to the effect of "I have "X" degree and that should be worth something more, something extra." When I asked them what the median wage of that degree is their eyes would glaze over and there head would tilt like a puppy with no answer. It's because these people never looked into what their chosen degree path COULD MAKE, they just assume the sheep skin means more money. WRONG. Let's take Cat here as an example: Cat is going to graduate with a degree in Political Science and Geography, you know two of the 7 Social Science degrees (History, political science, geography, economics, psychology, sociology, and anthropology.) and 4th in line or middle of the road when it comes to money making degrees.

Per a Georgetown University study, her chosen degree paths starts at about 33k a year with a median wage of 60k a year, but she wants to start at 50k, because college reason. Now lets get to her inflation argument that bypasses huge things to make her argument work like the Consumer Price Index and the actual inflation rate. Cat was born in 2002, not 1982 so she knows shit about living in the 80's or the 70's. In 1980 the inflation rate was 13.9% in 1981 it was 11.8%, for the first 19 years of her life the highest inflation rate that her parents, not her, had to deal with was 4.3% in 2008. 2002's was 7.5% and 2023 6.4%, Guess what happened in 2022, our government went on a spending spree that has not stopped. The average inflation rate for her entire life is 2.3%. (All of the parentage are based of January numbers for each year rather than the highest or lowest for the entire year. Years like 2009 and 2015 where inflation rates were in negative percentages I made them zero %.) Side note: before 2009 you have to go back to 1955 before you find negative inflation rates again. From 1970 to 1990 the average inflation rate was 6.8285714285714%, just shy of 3 time higher than what she is complaining about, and her folks did it on a lower wage. Enter the Consumer Price index. From 2002 to today in 2023 the average Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is 2.5304347826087%, and from 1970 to 1990 it was 6.2714285714286%, you guessed it, almost 3 times higher again. Of course the governments reckless spending and financing wars all over hell in back has started impacting EVERYONES bottom line, Cat is apparently just learning this. Cat, you need to earn a comfortable living, not have it handed to you. You need to work your ass up from the starting line not start closer to the top. It's not a Boomer, Gen X, Gen Z or what ever else is out there thing, its a you have never worked in your field thing, you just might suck at it thing and employers are not going to pay you on the work you might be able to do or the work ethic you might have, they are going to pay you as an employee that has limited work history, get used to it. I was born in 1970 got my first job, one of only 3 I ever had, in 1986. I did not earn over 41k a year until 2009, that was with a family of 4. Between my Bride and I we earned 4 1/2 degrees and took on no debt. How did we do it, work and save, living within our means and a budget. Guess what effects us much less becasue we pay cash for things, inflation. Not holding debt frees you up to do so many more things with your cash on hand. It's was less about inflation, although that is killing just about everyone now and more to do with piss poor advanced planning on Cat's part. Example: Had Cat looked into STEM degrees, you know a field short of female applicants, where the median starting yearly wage is 43k, with an expected yearly median wage of 76k per year, her outlook for earned wages would be much different. So, in short, Cat is pointing her anger at the wrong place, she shot herself in the foot taking on degrees with limited earning potential and in over saturated job markets rather than a more technical, less saturated job field that pays more all the way around.

“I think that if you go to college, you deserve to be able to make enough to live comfortably,” she asserts. “I think if you don’t go to college you should be able to make enough to live comfortably.” Comfortably, is relative to the person, and has more to do with, well comfort than economics. That's not how life works Cat. Maybe you should have paid a little more attention to those finance and economics classes.

[bitcoincables]

Bitcoin Price Plummets 77% in Asian Session, Triggering $200 Million in Liquidations

Bitcoin Price Crashes 77% in Asian Session, Sets Off $200 Million in Liquidations 😱

Bitcoin took a sudden nosedive during the Asian session, dropping 7.74% and briefly touching the $40,400 mark. This unexpected drop led to the liquidation of nearly $200 million worth of positions, causing significant market volatility. With the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, high volatility is anticipated to continue.

Higher interest rates often have an adverse impact on the price of gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal rather than investing in interest-bearing assets or depositing cash in a bank. Additionally, they generally strengthen the US Dollar, which in turn lowers the price of gold since it is denominated in dollars. It will be crucial to monitor the Fed's interest rate decisions and their implications on the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $42,289, hovering around the midpoint of its 77% crash during the bear market. This price level is pivotal and may trigger significant take-profit or sell orders, which could result in market-wide liquidations. Market participants should remain cautious as the struggle between bulls and bears intensifies. It is worth noting that a major correction in Bitcoin price is not expected until it reaches the 62% retracement level at $48,733. However, today's movements could catch many overeager investors off-guard. The $50,000 psychological level may be a plausible area for market-wide profit-taking to occur.

Read the original article #Bitcoin #cryptocurrency #BitcoinPrice #marketvolatility

[monicascot]

Weekly Overview: Chinese data still not convincing as to a recovery

In today's video, we'll be diving into some crucial topics impacting the global economy. We'll start by discussing the recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

[atlanticcanada]

'Nobody can live on that': Anti-poverty group disappointed with N.B. budget

An anti-poverty group in New Brunswick is disappointed with what it saw in Tuesday’s budget.

Organizers with the New Brunswick Common Front for Social Justice say they were let down by what they called a meagre raise to social assistance rates in the province.

Janelle LeBlanc, the provincial coordinator for the organization, said the extra $40 a month the Higgs government is pledging for people living on social assistance is nowhere near enough to cover the rising cost of living.

“In 2021, the social assistance rates in New Brunswick were the lowest in Canada and they are still some of the lowest in Canada,” said LeBlanc in an interview Wednesday.

“People who are deemed employable get $593 a month and people with disabilities get $792. Nobody can live on that. It’s under the poverty line. They live in extreme poverty.”

She says her group has been asking for social assistance rates to be raised to the poverty line.

“We were hoping that they would be raised a few hundred dollars, at least, and not just based on CPI [Consumer Price Index].”

The Higgs government tabled a $12.2-billion budget Tuesday that forecasts a small surplus and promises a funding boost to help stabilize the hurting health-care sector.

In a news release sent Wednesday, New Brunswick Common Front for Social Justice Community Co-chair Robert MacKay said people living on social assistance can't hold their heads above water.

“While the rates are indexed to the Consumer Price Index, it is not enough to cover basic necessities,” said MacKay.

The organization was also disappointed about the lack of investment in affordable housing.

LeBlanc said they expected the budget to have funding for additional social housing units because the waiting list for public housing has doubled between 2020 and 2022.

“Last fall, they made an announcement that we would get 380 social housing units. It’s the first time in 40 years the government is actually investing in social housing. That’s a great first step. We were just hoping to have extra investments in building social housing units,” said LeBlanc.

LeBlanc believes the lack of measures to help with the soaring cost of living is a big concern.

“I know some other groups are content with what’s in the budget, but for us, for poverty, there’s no permanent solutions to answer any of the social problems we have today,” she said.

“We’re disappointed. We’re going to continue working, continue meeting with ministers, continue meeting with MLAs and continue submitting documents to the government and organizing actions.”

LeBlanc called the budget a “missed opportunity” to introduce higher taxes on the super-wealthy and to improve living conditions for people struggling with day-to-day expenses.

With files from the Canadian Press

from CTV News - Atlantic https://ift.tt/rWXKogk

[principleofplenitude]

The official poverty measure is what’s sometimes known as an “absolute” poverty measure. Measures like this generally only adjust their thresholds for inflation. Many are based on less arbitrary numbers than “what people spent on food in 1955,” and many use different measurements of inflation, since a lot of economists think the Consumer Price Index overstates price increases compared to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) or chained CPI measures. But they fundamentally have a lot in common with the OPM’s approach: They set a dollar threshold for who is and isn’t poor and stick to it. Absolute poverty measures are crystal clear about what has happened to poverty since the 1960s: It plummeted. The below chart shows three different absolute measures, all of which use expansive income definitions, unlike the official rate. All three have fallen dramatically. The primary case for absolute measures like these is that they’re easy to interpret. Because the thresholds only change due to inflation, changes in the poverty rate only happen because people near the bottom get richer or poorer. If poverty falls, it’s because some low-income people gained more money or resources. If it increases, it’s because some low-income people lost out. Insofar as those kinds of material changes at the bottom are the main thing one cares about, absolute measures can be helpful. As a group of Columbia researchers argued in 2016, absolute measures are “more useful for establishing how families’ resources have changed against a fixed benchmark.” Applied to the US, the takeaway is that many fewer people are living on a very small amount of money than was the case in the 1960s. But many poverty scholars prefer to use what are called “relative” measures. Such measures set the threshold as a percentage of the country in question’s median income (usually 50 or 60 percent). Most rich countries other than the US define poverty in this way. The European Union, for instance, uses what it calls an “at risk of poverty” rate, defined as the share of residents in a country living on less than 60 percent of the median disposable income. The United Kingdom uses a “households below average income” (HBAI) statistic, with the main threshold set to 60 percent of median income. The case for relative measures is that poverty is socially defined, and “being in poverty” is usually thought of as people not being able to exist with the level of comfort that is normal in the society in which they live. A common definition, from the British scholar Peter Townsend, posits that poverty is “the absence or inadequacy of those diets, amenities, standards, services and activities which are common or customary in society.” Commonness or customariness are relative attributes, not absolute ones. Some, like sociologist David Brady, have also argued for relative measures on the grounds that they correlate better with self-reported mental and physical health and well-being. Looked at in relative terms, poverty hasn’t fallen in the US in recent decades. It’s stagnated.

“Why even brilliant scholars misunderstand poverty in America” from Vox

[cryptocoinsinsights]

Crypto Rally Causes $450M Short Trader Losses

The crypto market has been on an upward trend lately, with major cryptocurrencies experiencing significant gains. Unfortunately for traders who had bet against the market, this has resulted in some significant losses. In this article, we’ll take a closer look at what’s behind this crypto market rally, and what it means for traders and investors.

Short Traders Suffer Heavy Losses

According to data from CoinGlass, short traders (those who bet that the market will go down) suffered over $450 million in losses in the past 24 hours. The biggest losses were seen on the OKX exchange, where short traders lost over $241 million, and on Binance, where losses totaled $116 million. This is a clear indication of how much the crypto market has rallied, leaving short sellers in a difficult spot. Not only short traders, but long traders (those who bet that the market will go up) also suffered losses, with over $108 million in long positions being liquidated. The total value of liquidated positions in the past day has exceeded $727 million, a level not witnessed since the crypto market faced troubles on November 8th

Lower Inflation May be a Factor

So, what’s behind this crypto market rally? While a mix of factors may have contributed to the recent crypto rally, one possible explanation is the new data released by the U.S. Department of Labor indicating a cooldown in inflation. Specifically, the annual inflation rate fell to 6.5% in December, compared to 7.1% in November. The month-over-month inflation rate decreased by 0.1%, a contrast to the 0.1% rise seen the previous month. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, dropped to 5.7% from 6% in November

Lower inflation is commonly perceived as a positive development for risky assets like crypto, as it puts pressure on the US Federal Reserve to decrease interest rate hikes. Over the past year, the Fed and other global central banks have been raising interest rates at a fast pace, creating a challenging environment for crypto and other risky assets. As we have seen the crypto market is highly correlated to the global economy and interest rate is one of the key factors that affect the crypto market. This could be one of the reasons why crypto market rallied when there was a sign of lower inflation rate.

Institutional Investors Entering the Market

Another factor worth noting is that there has been a steep rise in activity in the futures market for digital currencies. Crypto Quant’s Ki Young Jun noted that buyers entered the market early Saturday morning, purchasing around $4 billion worth of bitcoin futures. This suggests that institutional investors may be starting to see value in the crypto market and are positioning themselves for the long-term. As the crypto market is maturing and more institutional investors are entering the market, it is becoming more stable and predictable. This could be another reason behind the recent rally.

Risks to Keep in Mind

It’s important to remember that the crypto market is still in its early stages and can be subject to significant volatility. Additionally, the regulatory environment for crypto is still uncertain and could change at any time. Governments around the world are still figuring out how to regulate the crypto market, and this uncertainty can lead to volatility in the market. Investors should be aware of the risks and do their own research before investing in the crypto market.

Conclusion

The recent crypto market rally and the resulting liquidations of short traders is a reminder of the potential volatility and uncertainty in the crypto market. However, it also shows that the crypto market still has significant potential for growth, particularly as more institutional investors enter the market. As the crypto market is maturing and becoming more stable, the potential for growth is increasing. As always, investors should be aware of the risks and do their own research before investing in the crypto market. It’s also worth noting that, while the current crypto market rally is impressive, it’s not without precedent. In 2017, the crypto market experienced a similar rally, with Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of nearly $20,000.

However, it’s important to remember that the crypto market is still relatively new and is subject to significant volatility. While the current rally is a positive sign, it’s not a guarantee of future growth. Investors should approach the crypto market with caution and only invest what they can afford to lose.

In addition, as the crypto market continues to grow, it is important for investors to be aware of the different types of crypto assets available. Bitcoin, the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency, is not the only option. There are now thousands of different cryptocurrencies available, each with their own unique characteristics and potential for growth. Ethereum, for example, is a popular alternative to Bitcoin and is known for its smart contract capabilities.

It’s also worth noting that the crypto market is not just limited to digital currencies. There are now a growing number of crypto-related investments available, such as blockchain-based stocks and crypto-related ETFs. These alternative investments can provide investors with exposure to the crypto market without the volatility associated with digital currencies.

You Might Also Want to Read: Bitcoin Price Rally: What Can it Tell us About the Current Market?

[ausetkmt]

People's World: NYC Uber drivers stage one-day strike over company robbery of $12M in raises

NEW YORK—Some 80,000 low-wage mostly immigrant New York City Uber drivers staged a one-day strike on Jan. 5 over the firm’s robbery of an estimated $12 million in raises the city’s Taxi and Limousine Commission ordered for them.

At a noontime rally at Uber headquarters at 175 Greenwich St., in downtown Manhattan, the drivers explained the city panel, following local law enacted in 2018, ordered a raise for them of at least $1,000 per driver per month, starting Dec. 19, 2022.

Including mileage reimbursements for skyrocketing gasoline expenses, the Uber drivers calculate they’ve lost $12 million. In addition to the strike, the drivers also asked customers to turn off the Uber app on their cell phones in solidarity through midnight.

Uber got a preliminary injunction to stop the raises ordered by the city—prompting a prior one-day drivers’ strike the day they were due to take effect, the 19th. The second strike precedes a Jan. 6 state Supreme Court hearing in Manhattan. In court, the commission is defending its raise for the drivers.

“Uber is trying to steal our raises from us. We aren’t going to let that happen,” responded driver Samassa Tidiane ahead of the rally.

The city’s Uber drivers, like their colleagues driving for the ride-share firm elsewhere in the U.S., are among the millions of exploited, low-wage fed-up workers from coast to coast who have had it with corporate greed at their expense.

Other such groups of workers include adjunct professors, port truckers, retail workers, warehouse workers, Amazon workers, and various “gig economy” workers. Those workers’ activism has led to large increases in union organizing and in employer-forced strikes. Other low-wage workers have just plain left for better jobs.

The commission-ordered raise for Uber drivers is supposed to cover inflation according to the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers’ transportation. That transportation index has skyrocketed since the first commission decision setting pay and reimbursement rates for the drivers, according to a friend-of-the-court brief the union-backed New York Taxi Workers Alliance filed with the judge.

In the brief, Uber driver Lamin Jatta said he told the city commission he used to pay $30 to fill up his tank and now pays $60. He wanted the panel to use “a consumer price that measures drivers’ professional expenses.” Driver Xavier Koudougou asked the commission “to use a CPI that reflects driver expenses because we drivers are consumer[s], but we use more gas than regular driver[s] and when the gas price [is] high, they have options. But we don’t.”

But after the commission approved the raise, Uber got the temporary injunction against it. The results: The drivers have had no raise at all, and their pay has not only fallen behind inflation but it’s also left many financially underwater. Many don’t even make the city’s minimum wage. So they’ve staged one-day strikes on Dec. 19 and on Jan. 5.

The Taxi Workers Alliance brief backing the Uber drivers lays out the impact in stark terms. So did the drivers, in statements before the noontime rally.“I’m shocked and speechless thinking of how Uber stopped our raise after all the hearings and all the protests we did,” said Uber driver Nusrat Jahan, a Taxi Workers Alliance member. “This raise was like a small light of happiness for our families and for us, which Uber didn’t let happen.

“I’m ashamed Uber blocked this happiness before the holidays. Now I’m working for Uber raising all this money for them so they can hire a private jet or go to a private island or go to Dubai to celebrate their happiness with their families. We could have been earning $1,000 extra a month to pay our bills, not for luxuries.”

“We won raises from the Taxi and Limousine Commission, but Uber decided to go to a judge to stop our raises. Uber doesn’t think about the drivers, they just think about themselves,” added Tidiane, also a Taxi Workers Alliance member.

“We’re suffering because car payments, insurance, food, gas, and mechanic prices are all going up. If Uber was the one paying expenses for cars and gas, they would have raised the prices a long time ago, but it’s drivers who pay for everything out of pocket. Uber is trying to steal our raises from us. We aren’t going to let that happen.”

The Taxi Workers Alliance brief elaborated on the conditions the drivers face without the raise. It also noted that even with the commission’s hike, the raise still would not keep up with inflation the drivers face, or the costs of buying and maintaining their cars.

“The cost of everyday essentials, from bread and milk to rent, has increased due to inflation levels not seen in the past 40 years. Uber speaks of the choice it must make: Bear the cost itself—as a major multinational company—or pass it onto customers, in whole or in part, and potentially upset customers with higher fare pricing.

“The stark reality [is] that drivers have no choice…. They cannot increase what Uber charges for fares. They must pay and have already paid higher vehicle costs. They cannot pass the increased cost of cars, insurance, repairs, and fuel onto customers. And they cannot decrease Uber’s commission” from each fare.

Drivers “have seen their take-home pay drop precipitously. The results of such a decrease have immediate, human impact on drivers and their families who, beginning with a baseline of low-wage earnings, cannot make any more trade-offs. Indeed, the record reflects nearly 80% of drivers were already struggling to pay rent, and nearly 50% struggling to afford food.”

[starseedfxofficial]

PPI Meets Triple Top: The Hidden Formula Every Forex Trader Needs The Secret Sauce: Producer Price Index (PPI) Meets Triple Top Analysis in Forex Trading If you’ve ever wondered how to wield the Producer Price Index (PPI) and spot a Triple Top pattern for maximum Forex gains, you’re in for a treat. These two concepts might seem unrelated at first glance, but together, they’re like peanut butter and jelly — an unexpected duo that works wonders when you know how to spread them just right. What’s the Deal with PPI? The Producer Price Index measures changes in the prices producers receive for goods and services. Think of it as the factory floor whispering secrets about where the economy’s headed. Higher PPI numbers often signal inflationary pressures, which can nudge central banks toward hiking interest rates. For Forex traders, this is like hearing tomorrow’s news today. PPI’s Secret Superpower: - Currency Strength Predictor: A rising PPI can make a currency more attractive, thanks to higher yields. - Early Warning System: PPI often precedes CPI (Consumer Price Index), giving traders a head start. - Market Sentiment Shifter: PPI releases can trigger volatility, creating opportunities for quick scalps or long-term plays. The Triple Top: A Pattern of Doom (or Profit) A Triple Top is like the market’s way of telling you, “Enough is enough.” After hitting the same resistance level three times, the price often tumbles, much like a stubborn toddler finally giving up on climbing the cookie jar. Why Traders Love (and Fear) the Triple Top: - Reliable Reversal Signal: This pattern screams “Sell” louder than a Black Friday ad. - Clear Stop-Loss Levels: Place it just above resistance for a risk-managed trade. - Versatility: Works across timeframes, whether you’re day trading or swing trading. The Ninja Combo: PPI + Triple Top Here’s where the magic happens. Combining PPI analysis with Triple Top patterns is like spotting a storm brewing before setting sail. Let’s break it down: - Step 1: Monitor PPI Data - Check upcoming PPI releases for major currencies (e.g., USD, EUR, JPY). - Compare actual vs. forecasted values. A significant deviation can set the market abuzz. - Step 2: Spot a Triple Top - Use technical analysis tools to identify resistance levels. - Watch for three failed attempts to break through resistance. - Step 3: Connect the Dots - High PPI + Triple Top? A currency’s overbought and ready to reverse. - Low PPI + Triple Top? Potential for a breakout reversal as fundamentals align. - Step 4: Execute with Precision - Short the currency pair near the third peak. - Use stop-loss and take-profit levels based on the pattern’s height for risk management. Real-World Example: USD/JPY and the 2023 PPI Release Imagine it’s mid-2023, and the U.S. PPI data comes in hotter than expected. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY chart forms a textbook Triple Top at 145.00. Savvy traders short the pair, riding it down to 142.50 for a clean 250-pip profit. Simple? Yes. Effective? Absolutely. Busting Common Myths - Myth 1: PPI is irrelevant for Forex. Truth: It’s a leading indicator that often sets the stage for CPI and interest rate decisions. - Myth 2: Triple Tops are rare. Truth: They’re more common than you think, especially in volatile markets. - Myth 3: Fundamentals and technicals don’t mix. Truth: Combining them gives you a 360-degree view of the market. Advanced Tips for the Pros - Combine with Volume Analysis: A Triple Top with declining volume? Stronger reversal signal. - Watch Correlated Markets: Rising PPI can affect bond yields, equities, and commodities, offering additional clues. - Use a Smart Trading Tool: Automate alerts for PPI releases and pattern formations with tools like the Smart Trading Tool. The Bigger Picture Understanding the interplay between economic indicators like PPI and chart patterns such as Triple Tops isn’t just about making trades; it’s about mastering the market’s rhythm. Stay curious, stay informed, and remember: The market rewards those who see beyond the surface. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

[accapitalmarket]

UK inflation drives UK100 higher, GBP flat ahead of FOMC

UK stocks edged higher on Wednesday as the latest inflation figures rose, and investors eyed the last policy announcement from the US Federal Reserve of 2025.

On foreign exchanges, sterling was essentially flat against the dollar at 1.2710 and a smidge lower versus the euro at 1.2107 after UK inflation notched up a second consecutive monthly rise.

The annualised consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% in October, in line with expectations, but still the highest level since March this year. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.1%, compared with a fall of 0.2% a year previously.

UK100 H4

Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile elements of energy, food alcohol and tobacco, rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to November, up from 3.3% in October but below forecasts for a rise to 3.6%.

Other data on Wednesday showed that UK house prices rose by 4.8% in 2024, according to a year-end report from mortgage lender Halifax, with the average house price reaching a record level of £298,083. Meanwhile, Office for National Statistics data showed the average UK house price increased by 3.4% in the 12 months to October, ticking upwards from 2.8% in September, with the average house price in October at £292,000.

The Bank of England meets on Thursday to make its latest decision on interest rates and is widely-expected to keep the cost of borrowing on hold. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has trimmed rates twice this year but remains hesitant about sticky inflation.

Most eyes, however, were on the US rate decision, due to be announced at 7.00pm GMT. Most traders are expecting a 25 basis points cut by the Fed, which is fully discounted by the markets. Apart from the rate decision, market attention will be on the updated rate projections and comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell.

In London, around 2.30pm GMT, the FTSE 100 index was up 0.1% at 8,204, while the FTSE 250 index was ahead 0.4% at 20,623.

British Airways and Iberia owner IAG featured among the FTSE 100 gainers, adding 2.1% after analysts at Jefferies hiked their price target for the airlines group to 350p from 270p in a sector review.

Kingfisher edged up 0.5% as the DIY retailer announced the sale of its Brico Dépôt business in Romania to retailer Altex Romania for €70mln (around £58mln).

GBPUSD H1

But on the downside, National Grid shed 0.9% as the energy distributor released its RIIO-T3 Business Plan detailing investments of up to £35bn over a five-year period from April 2026. On the second line, Games Workshop – which will join the FTSE 100 index next week - added 0.4% as Warhammer games firm rewarded shareholders with an 80p-per-share dividend, bringing year-to-date returns to 265p, a substantial increase from the 195p paid out in the same period in 2023.

But among the FTSE 250 fallers, Transact platform owner IntegraFin dropped 9.7% as caution about rising administrative costs next year offset full-year results which showed a 17pc improvement in funds under direction to £64.1bn, driven by net inflows of £2.5bn.

And on AIM, discount shoe retailer Shoe Zone plunged by 42.2% as it warned on profits and said it had been forced to close some stores due to National Insurance changes announced in October’s UK Budget.

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.

Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us.

The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.

[captain-kit-adventuress]

Note: I'm not trying to prove myself "right," I'm not sure there is any way to actually do so, but I think this is a fascinating conversation and wanted to add my two cents!

I don't think it's as far off as maybe one might assume. If one uses the US Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI Inflation Calculator, that number will take inflation in account, of course, but also the Consumer Price Index. Unfortunately, it only goes back to 1913, but that's because we don't have as reliable of income records before then–1913 was the first year income taxes were standardised across the US; before that it was pretty haphazard and very geography-dependent.

According to the calculator, $20 in Jan 1913 USD is the equivalent of $629.42 in Jan 2024 USD. Even taking into account a 7-10 year timing difference, It still may be a bit off, because inflation is always an average to begin with, and an index is a complicated bit of averaging as well, so both of those are subject to the same sorts of flaws any average is subject to, like outliers, population densities, etc. Or like, the fact that the US wouldn't even have all of the current states until 1950 so the data would still be expanding at that point. So there are issues, yes, but I think it's probably as representative as mathematics and incomplete pricing records can make it.

I would also argue, for example, that the suits being sold in 1904-06 were probably a lot nicer than a $600 suit of today. So the price maybe isn't comparable, but is the quality? A quick search leads me to see that an absolute clearance Brooks Brothers suit, originally just shy of $1,300, is now selling for $699. That doesn't include finished sleeves or hems–though that makes sense–and I can't seem to find whether or not alterations are included in the purchase price or not. However, that's for off-the-rack suiting. For a completely bespoke suit, it starts at $1,000, roughly, and again I don't know if that includes the labour or not. How close to Brooks Brothers would, say, a department-store suit have been, in terms of comparable quality? Or even just your average tailor if you went that route?

(From what I can see, the off-the-rack stuff at BB, in some cases, may use what I believe is fusible interfacing (I only have marketing puffery to extrapolate from) which is not exactly what I would consider a high-quality material but I'm also not a sewist of any kind, I just know some basics. And those buttons definitely looked plastic because you can bet they'd talk it up if they were anything nicer.)

Then there's the idea that these indices and comparable historical price lists were made at a time when the general pricing of, say, grocery items vs clothing vs anything was so, so different from today. That rule about rent taking up no more than 1/3 of your monthly income? Probably applicable in 1904-06, not so much today. Food, I think, would have been a lot more expensive then, as a sort of ratio of [expense] to monthly income, especially items like meat and dairy, but we would consider it dirt-cheap by just the amount.

*shrug* pricing in any era is an art, not a science.

Whatever the actual value of the food, I think we can all agree that's a shit-ton of ham and eggs lol.

The Philadelphia Inquirer, Pennsylvania, July 29, 1904

[arfacapital]

European markets European markets started the session in positive territory, albeit with modest gains. However, as the session progressed, indices displayed a mixed performance. The SMI outperformed following the SNB's larger-than-expected rate cut, while broader European equities turned more subdued ahead of the ECB's policy announcement. Autos and Energy/Basic Resources led the gains, driven by strong underlying commodity prices. Retail was the clear laggard, extending its prior session's weakness. US pre-market The Nasdaq surged past the 20,000 mark for the first time, driven by gains in Google and Nvidia. Meanwhile, the Dow dropped 99 points, continuing its losing streak, and the S&P 500 gained modestly. Tesla shares reached a record $424.77, propelled by market optimism surrounding its electric vehicle and AI prospects, along with favorable ties between Elon Musk and President-elect Trump. Quantum computing stocks also experienced a significant boost after Google introduced its "Willow" quantum chip, which sparked a 45% rise in Rigetti Computing's stock and lifted the Defiance Quantum ETF by 2%. Fixed income markets USTs are marginally weaker after an overnight selloff. Yields were steeper as the market awaited US PPI and ECB updates. Bunds softened, influenced by ECB anticipation and the SNB's unexpected policy move. French OATs and Gilts also edged lower, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. The Italian Treasury successfully auctioned EUR 8.5 billion across maturities, meeting upper expectations. Commodities WTI and Brent saw marginal gains but pared earlier advances after the IEA downgraded 2024 demand growth forecasts. Prices remained near USD 70/bbl and USD 73/bbl, respectively. Gold held steady around USD 2,715/oz, under pressure from USD strength and rising yields, though benefitting from mixed risk sentiment. Copper remained range-bound above USD 9,200/MT, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Currencies The Dollar Index (DXY) traded steadily, staying within the 106.26-106.80 range. Market focus shifted to upcoming PPI data after the previous CPI report. EUR/USD hovered around the 1.05 level, awaiting the ECB's expected 25bps rate cut. The pair remained within a 1.0480-1.0539 range. JPY experienced mild depreciation after early APAC strength waned. The BoJ is reportedly leaning toward maintaining rates steady, pending consensus on next week’s decision. GBP held steady with limited UK-specific catalysts. GBP/USD tested a session high of 1.2787 before reverting to the prior range of 1.2714-1.2782. AUD outperformed following robust jobs data. Employment growth exceeded expectations, driving AUD/USD back above 0.64. CHF declined after the SNB surprised markets with a 50bps rate cut, coupled with a reiteration of intervention readiness. Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin remained above the 100k mark but traded slightly lower, reflecting minor consolidation after recent rallies. Political and World News - Israeli forces reportedly entered the Syria buffer zone temporarily. Hamas signaled potential acceptance of Israeli presence in Gaza post-ceasefire. - Chinese President Xi reiterated a commitment to strengthening ties with Russia, emphasizing economic collaboration. - President Biden issued clemency for over 1,500 people, marking the largest single-day clemency action in U.S. history. - FBI Director Christopher Wray announced his resignation ahead of Trump’s inauguration, with Kash Patel set to replace him. - U.S. regulators finalized a rule limiting overdraft fees to $5 for banks with over $10 billion in assets. While welcomed by consumers, the rule faces potential rollback under the incoming administration. - Elon Musk became the first person to reach a net worth of $400 billion, driven by record valuations of Tesla and SpaceX. - Prominent real estate figures Tal, Oren, and Alon Alexander face federal and state charges for alleged sex trafficking over a decade. - A former TD Bank employee was charged with laundering $670 million for drug cartels, highlighting systemic compliance failures within the banking sector. Economic Highlights - Wholesale Price Index: The U.S. producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.4% in November, surpassing expectations, indicating sustained inflationary pressures. Core PPI matched forecasts at 0.2%. - Deficit Expansion: The U.S. budget deficit climbed to $366.8 billion in November, a 17% increase year-over-year. The Treasury forecasts $1.2 trillion in annual interest costs as the national debt hits $36.1 trillion. - Jobless Claims Rise: Initial jobless claims totaled 242,000 for the week ending December 7, a 17,000 increase week-over-week, signaling potential headwinds in the labor market. - European Rate Cuts: The ECB reduced its key interest rate by 0.25% to 3%, marking its fourth rate cut in 2024. The Swiss National Bank made a larger-than-expected 0.50% cut to 0.5%. - India's Inflation Eases: India's inflation dropped to 5.48% in November, raising expectations of a 0.25% interest rate cut in early 2025 under the new RBI governor. Corporate Highlights - Tesla Hits Record High: Tesla shares closed at $424.77, marking a 6% daily increase and a 71% year-to-date gain. The stock's momentum is linked to optimism about the company's EV and AI advancements, as well as Elon Musk's relationship with President-elect Trump. - Quantum Stocks Surge: The unveiling of Google's Willow quantum chip has revitalized quantum computing stocks. Rigetti Computing saw a 45% jump, while the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) rose by 2%. Companies like D-Wave and MicroStrategy have also enjoyed massive year-to-date gains of 355% and 538%, respectively. - SCOTUS Clears Nvidia Case: The Supreme Court allowed a securities fraud lawsuit against Nvidia to proceed, concerning allegations the company misrepresented its reliance on cryptocurrency mining for revenue. - Walmart's Fintech Growth: Walmart's financial services startup, One, reached a valuation of $2.5 billion after raising $300 million in funding. The company plans to leverage Walmart’s expansive customer and employee network to expand its services. - SpaceX Valuation Hits $350 Billion: SpaceX's valuation soared following a $1.25 billion secondary share sale, driven by its dominance in the satellite launch market and Starlink's growth. - Google's New AI Tool: Google launched "Deep Research," an advanced AI tool for its Gemini subscribers, allowing users to generate detailed reports through comprehensive data mining. - Eli Lilly Collaboration: Ro, a health-tech startup, partnered with Eli Lilly to offer the weight-loss drug Zepbound through its platform at significantly lower prices than traditional options. - Hershey's Buyout Rejected: Hershey's controlling trust dismissed Mondelez's takeover bid as too low. Hershey’s stock dropped 3.3%, while Mondelez rose 3.5%. Mondelez announced plans for smaller acquisitions and a $9 billion stock buyback program. - Albertsons and Kroger Dispute: Albertsons terminated its $25 billion merger with Kroger after court opposition, suing Kroger for breach of contract. While Kroger shares rose 2%, Albertsons fell by 1.5%. - ReNew Energy's Go-Private Offer: ReNew Energy received a $2.82 billion buyout proposal, representing an 11.5% premium. The stock surged 17.7% in response. Recent Earnings Recap - Adobe (ADBE) reported robust results with quarterly revenue reaching $5.61 billion, reflecting an 11.05% year-over-year growth, surpassing expectations by $66 million. The company also achieved earnings per share (EPS) of $4.81, a 12.65% increase from the previous year, exceeding forecasts by $0.15. This performance highlights Adobe's continued strength in its subscription-based digital media and cloud services. - Nordson (NDSN) delivered solid quarterly performance with revenue climbing to $744.48 million, a 3.5% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations by $7.69 million. EPS rose significantly to $2.78, marking a 13.01% year-over-year improvement, beating estimates by $0.19, signaling operational efficiency and steady demand across its markets. - Ciena (CIEN) posted mixed results for the quarter. While revenue slightly declined by 0.44% year-over-year to $1.12 billion, it still managed to beat expectations by $24 million. However, EPS dropped 28% year-over-year to $0.54, falling short of estimates by $0.11, reflecting pressure on margins despite stable top-line performance. Upcoming Earnings Outlook - Broadcom (AVGO) is set to report after the market close today. Analysts project revenue of $14.09 billion, representing a significant 51.59% year-over-year growth, with EPS estimated at $1.38, a 24.32% increase. Investors will focus on updates about its cloud and semiconductor business segments. - Costco (COST) will also report later today. Analysts forecast revenue of $62.08 billion, reflecting a 7.41% year-over-year rise, alongside EPS expectations of $3.79, an 8.91% increase. Key attention will be on membership growth and holiday sales outlook. - RH (RH) is expected to announce earnings with analysts predicting revenue of $813.61 million, an 8.3% year-over-year increase, and EPS of $2.67. Insights into the company's luxury furniture sales trends will be closely monitored. - GE Vernova (GEV) and Solventum (SOLV) are slated to release earnings on Tuesday. GE Vernova is anticipated to report $10.68 billion in revenue, while Solventum is expected to deliver $2.06 billion. - Micron Technology (MU) will report Wednesday, with analysts estimating $8.55 billion in revenue, an impressive 80.91% year-over-year growth, alongside EPS of $1.76. The focus will be on-demand recovery in memory chips. - Lennar (LEN): Projected revenue of $10.08 billion (-8.1% YoY) and EPS of $4.26 (-17.6% YoY). - General Mills (GIS): Expected revenue of $5.13 billion (-0.18% YoY) and EPS of $1.22 (-2.4% YoY). - Jabil (JBL): Anticipated revenue of $6.61 billion (-21.19% YoY) and EPS of $1.83 (-29.62% YoY). - Birkenstock Holding (BIRK): Forecasted revenue of $439.27 million (+7.75% YoY) and EPS of $0.26 (+85.71% YoY). IPO Activity Confirmed Today: - ServiceTitan (TTAN): A cloud-based software provider reported $653.84 million in trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue, growing 31.34% YoY. Estimated Friday, Dec. 13: - Metros Development Co., Ltd. (MTRS): A Japanese real estate consulting company with $489.07 million in TTM revenue and 52.84% YoY growth. - Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. (MLAC): A Nevada-based blank check company. - Roman DBDR Acquisition Corp. II (DRDB): Focused on cybersecurity, AI, and fintech sectors. - Anteris Technologies Global Corp. (AVR): A cardiac devices manufacturer with $2.71 million in TTM revenue. - New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited (NCEW): A Hong Kong-based freight forwarding provider with $52.15 million in TTM revenue, down 4.69% YoY. - NetClass Technology Inc (NTCL): A Chinese education software company with $11.09 million in TTM revenue, up 19.79% YoY. Market Outlook and Future Events Investors will closely monitor developments in inflation and interest rate policy, with wholesale inflation data and jobless claims suggesting mixed economic signals. Corporate earnings, particularly from Adobe, will provide further insights into business trends as markets anticipate the Fed's next move. Read the full article