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I am still just baffled. We were all reading the same research on how extremely pervasive bias can be and specifically how terrible humans are at estimating their own bias. I really thought the whole thing the rationalist community was taking away from the exercise was a deeper understanding of having other people sanity check us. I thought the whole point was epistemological restraint and cultivating a sense of humility in one's own knowledge!

Like, do I think I make better grounded decisions and have a better understanding of my own mind because of some of the techniques I picked up in the rationality community? Yeah. In the same way that learning meditation helps you manage stress better, even if the teacher was forming a cult at the same time you weren't really aware of. 😅

But as some of the mental tips and tricks in the community were helping me notice my own biases better and making me aware of biases I had no idea work a part of me before that point, the lesson I was taking away was that I am fallible! I thought that was the lesson we were all taken away! That we can be wrong or thinking poorly and not realize it! That we have to have humility about the limits of our own knowledge and surety!

It was kind of a shock to realize that wasn't what everybody was taking away from the rationalism community. That its leaders and most prominent figures all thought the point of this was to become some kind of uberrationalist who was always right and didn't need no checks and safeties meant to hold mere irrational mortals back! And oh wow did some of the community go down that rabbit hole really hard and in a really bad way! Holy shit.

If there's anything I learned from this, it's that you can't let anyone thing be your whole personality. You have to find community in multiple places and with different groups of people. The moment you let one group become your whole world, it doesn't matter what that group is about. You're cooked. Because if you end up having a choice between alienating your whole community, everyone who is meaningful in your life, and going along with some very stupid shit?

There are very good odds you will go along with the stupid shit.

Me after listening to the Zizians episodes of Behind the Bastards

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It's hilarious to me how Colossal Biosciences wants to be movie-version John Hammond but are 100% book-version John Hammond. In the Jurassic Park novel, it's very clear: John Hammond is a con artist who gives people an illusion, not the truth. He knew from the beginning that what he was making weren't dinosaurs, but he didn't care because he had a story to sell. He wasn't just "filling in gaps" with the frog dna, his scientists were basically making things up from whole cloth and he had no pretence about it- but he also knew what the public wanted to believe.

Case in point: https://time.com/7274542/colossal-dire-wolf/

These are not dire wolves. These are GMO gray wolves. Dire wolves aren't even in the same genus as gray wolves, and we know this from genetics.

What Colossal is doing is scamming the public. They want you to believe that they can pull off miracles. They can't. It's the flea circus where everything is mechanised, but because you want to believe, you "see" the fleas. They might be good at genetic modification and they might be good at hyping themselves up, but they haven't de-extincted the dire wolf. They didn't activate mammoth genes in a mouse. They are lying to you and they're going to keep doing it. Don't believe the hype.

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Because open windows, even a crack, make it easier to jack your car.

Every other piece of advice on this is solid, but that's playing with fire in the wrong neighborhood.

Its come to my attention that a lot of people do not know how to deal with a hot car in summer. A lot of people will get back to their car, after hours of it being parked in the full sun, and will open the door to be blasted in the face with furnace-level temperatures, and you'll just clamber in and shut the doors and leave the windows closed and you'll start driving that thing, and you'll wait for the air-conditioning to battle and overcome the heat.

Thats. Insane to me.

The inside of a car can get up to 40°C/104°F hotter than the outside temperature. Why would anyone get inside that????? It's gonna take your air-conditioning at least half an hour to combat that and bring the temperature down to something even remotely reasonable, and in the meantime you're sitting there risking heatstroke.

Now, I understand that it's currently winter in the northern hemisphere, which is where most of this site lives, but a) I'm in the southern hemisphere and today was Lots Of Degrees, and b) y'all should read this now and commit it to memory or queue it to reblog in summer or whatever, because it boggles my mind that some of you get into a car whose interior is literally oven-hot.

So!!!! Some tips!!!!!

Get a sun visor. One of the big ones that goes inside your windshield. You will not believe how much cooler those things keep your car. Get one, use it. Leave it to bounce around in your back-seat on cooler days, but have it on hand for the stinkers. They range in price but two-dollar stores usually have them for pretty cheap.

Leave the windows of your car cracked open. It doesn't have to be much. Literally just the tiniest amount will mean that the heat building inside your car has a way to escape, meaning the interior temp will naturally be kept lower. The larger the opening, the better, but depending on the neighbourhood you're parking in, maybe it would be better to have them open just a sliver. Even the tiniest crack will help. Ever tried warming up an oven with the door open? It doesn't work well. This is the same concept. If there is a way for the hot air to escape, the inside of your car will stay a lot cooler than it otherwise would have.

If you're fancy enough to have an openable sunroof (that's the dream) then leave that open a bit as well.

Youve just gotten back to your car and opened the door, and its hot as fuck in there. Open another door, ideally on the other side of the car, and let the hot air escape. If you can open all four doors and the boot, then thats even better. A bunch of the hot air will flush out. Not all!!! But a lot. Give it anywhere from a few moments to a few minutes, depending on how much of a hurry you're in.

Get in, start the car, open all the windows. Yes, even if you hate having the windows open.

Put the air-conditioning on full blast, and make sure the recycle is turned OFF. This means it pulls fresh air from outside the car (hot, but less hot than inside) and pumps that into the car, further displacing the heat inside the vehicle.

Start driving, still with the windows down. Once you get up enough speed, the force of the air from outside coming in will blast the rest of the excess heat out of the car.

The temp inside the car will now be roughly equivalent to the temp outside the car. Still hot!!!! But MAJORLY less so, and majority more handle-able by your air-conditioner.

Put all your windows up, and switch the air-con over to recycle. This means it takes the air in the car and cools it, then spits it back into the car, meaning that with each cycle, the air gets progressively cooler a lot faster.

If you do this, your car will be a hell of a lot more comfortable a hell of a lot sooner than it would be if you got into a 60°C/140°F cabin and just.... endured that, until your aircon could overcome it.

This post has been brought to you by an Australian who knows not one but TWO people who get into 60°C cars and wait 15 to 30 minutes for their car to drop back down to a temperature that's even REMOTELY tolerable.

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It is without question one of the best animes of all time, and a pitch perfect rendition of the spirit of US media about the prohibition on alcohol.

They also named a guy Jacuzzi Splot because they're English words with sounds that are very foreign to Japanese.

You might think your anime opening is cool, but is it “seamlessly put a ‘previously on…’ segment in the MIDDLE of the opening and have it kick ass every time” cool?

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ed zitron, a tech beat reporter, wrote an article about a recent paper that came out from goldman-sachs calling AI, in nicer terms, a grift. it is a really interesting article; hearing criticism from people who are not ignorant of the tech and have no reason to mince words is refreshing. it also brings up points and asks the right questions:

if AI is going to be a trillion dollar investment, what trillion dollar problem is it solving?

what does it mean when people say that AI will "get better"? what does that look like and how would it even be achieved? the article makes a point to debunk talking points about how all tech is misunderstood at first by pointing out that the tech it gets compared to the most, the internet and smartphones, were both created over the course of decades with roadmaps and clear goals. AI does not have this.

the american power grid straight up cannot handle the load required to run AI because it has not been meaningfully developed in decades. how are they going to overcome this hurdle (they aren't)?

people who are losing their jobs to this tech aren't being "replaced". they're just getting a taste of how little their managers care about their craft and how little they think of their consumer base. ai is not capable of replacing humans and there's no indication they ever will because...

all of these models use the same training data so now they're all giving the same wrong answers in the same voice. without massive and i mean EXPONENTIALLY MASSIVE troves of data to work with, they are pretty much as a standstill for any innovation they're imagining in their heads

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This is why scientific studies are so important by the way! This this this this!

The flip side of “cleanse diets don’t do anything” is that if you tried a cleanse diet and you did experience a notable reduction in fatigue, joint pain, and general blarginess, you need to talk to an allergy specialist, because there’s nearly a 100% chance that means you have an undiagnosed allergy to some component of your customary diet.

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Divorce seems to radicalize american men in a way that needs to be studied

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IF YOU ARE IN NC AND YOU VOTED, CHECK IF YOUR NAME IS ON THIS LIST.

The North Carolina Court of Appeals ruled in a 2-1 decision that over 60,000 votes cast in last year’s closely contested state Supreme Court race must be verified and recounted. The ruling comes after Republican candidate Jefferson Griffin, who lost the race, challenged the eligibility of tens of thousands of 2024 voters. Those voters will now have 15 days to verify their eligibility, potentially changing the outcome of the election. Check your name here: https://thegriffinlist.com

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Me, stumbling into the kitchen: Good morning, generic Adderall! I have a lot to do this morning, so I'm sure glad to have you here to help me focus on my very important work and get things done!

Generic Adderall: :-)

Me: y-you are gonna help me focus on work today, right?

Generic Adderall: :-)

Me: What are you gonna d-

Generic Adderall: Horny.

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it is so funny to me how i started learning english on my own age 10 because the manga i was reading was turning so so so bad i went to fan content to cope with how shit it was. and 15 years later this pays off as my boss tells me i'm an essential asset in the team as the only fluent english-speaker.

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The government is not a money sink! It is a money dynamo! It moves money around, that's what taxes are. And the strength of an economy is determined by how much money is changing hands each year, not the abstract amount of currency available.

It's so weird to me when people are like 'but that will cost the government money!' So what? They're the government, they're supposed to be spending money. What, you want them to take your tax dollars and then do nothing with it? Lock it all up in a big government vault and just look at it? Why are you so scared of giving a third grader lunch or a homeless person a house.

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I mean. I still blame her more. You know the professional politician who decided to support a genocide when polling indicated that was a key issue in swing states. Who decided to drop economic populism as an issue because the CLO of Uber told her it would alienate CEO donors. Who stayed totally silent on trans issues when a super majority of non Republicans are pretty solidly pro trans people on just about every issue you ask about. Whose party formally censured her VP without a peep from her for supporting ranked choice voting, a wildly popular initiative. Who stayed silent on public healthcare, another issue with supermajority support among non Republicans. Who went rabidly reactionary on immigration, way further right than the average non-republican voter.

Like, I voted for her! I saw this coming! But a goldfish living in the United States could have told you that she was doing fuck and all to earn the support of people whose turn out she needed most critically. A goldfish could have told you that some people are going to find voting for somebody supporting genocide as a step too far, and that this is a reality of the human condition which politicians need to be cognizant of rather than chiding people for.

Especially because I don't see any way for us to change that fact about some people's nature going forward for future elections, nor do I actually want to. I think that aspect of humanity actually does more good than harm, for all that it was part of the margin of failure this last US election. Meanwhile it is extremely fucking easy for politicians to simply stop supporting genocide, and I would much rather have direct my efforts towards getting that to happen.

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Last week, President Donald Trump finally unveiled his tariff policy — an incoherent bolus of sky-high taxes on goods from every inhabited country and some small islands which are home only to penguins.

The tariffs are so high, and so obviously nonsensical in development and implementation, that they caused a terrifying stock selloff. The market lost $6.6 trillion in two days, the biggest two-day wipeout on record. (And the selloff is set to continue this week.)

Trump’s tariffs will cost the average American family $3,800 a year. They are set to devastate supply chains for small businesses. As other countries crank up retaliatory tariffs, farmers are going to face major barriers to selling on the world market. The administration’s conflicting messages about why the tariffs are in place, and under what conditions they will remain, have only added to the chaos and confusion.

The only thing that seems certain at this point is the likelihood of more, and escalating, economic devastation.

Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?

The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.

The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.

Revolt of (a few) Republicans

As they are wont to do, many Republicans have gotten on their bellies to grovel and spout the usual Trump-flattering balderdash, either because they are desperate to propitiate their master or because they are genuinely fools.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been leading the charge of the sycophants. In interviews he’s blathered that Trump’s trade policy would force other countries to “stop picking on us” and bleated, “Let Donald Trump run the global economy. He knows what he’s doing.”

Some of Lutnick’s fellow Republicans do not, somehow, find his mix of whining and wheedling persuasive.

Shortly after Trump announced his one man assault on the world economy, the Senate passed a bill on a straight majority vote to end the 25 percent emergency tariff declaration against Canada, which Trump had already announced before his latest round of additional bonus tariffs.

The bill was sponsored by Republican Rand Paul of Kentucky and Democrat Tim Kaine of Virginia. All Democrats voted for it, as did Republicans Mitch McConnell, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski. It passed 51-48.

“We're not at war with Canada," Paul said, sounding about as sensible as he ever has. “They're an ally that buys more of our stuff than almost any other country in the world.”

The vote was largely symbolic. Senate Democrats, led by minority leader Chuck Schumer, cravenly caved and gave Republicans the votes they needed to pass a continuing resolution which funded the government, but also stripped Congress members of the ability to bring bills to the floor to vote on repealing presidential emergency declarations.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson, the high priest of Trump enablers, will almost certainly prevent the bill from ever coming to the floor. Even if it were to pass, Trump could veto it — and it’s very unlikely Republicans could find enough votes to overcome a veto.

Despite these barriers, Democrats — and some Republicans—are trying again. Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley — whose farm state of Iowa will be devastated by the tariffs — has joined with Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell to cosponsor a bill that would claw back the oversight power Congress has recklessly ceded to the president on trade over the decades.

Per the Grassley/Cantwell bill, the president would need to notify Congress within 48 hours of new tariffs, explaining the reasoning behind them and estimating economic impact. Congress would have 60 days to approve the tariffs; if they failed to do so, the tariffs would expire.

In addition to Grassley, the bill is cosponsored by four other Republicans: Jerry Moran, Thom Tillis, McConnell, and Murkowski. Add in Paul and Collins, who voted for the Kaine/Paul bill, and that’s at least seven Republican votes — enough to pass the bill on a simple majority, though not enough to overcome a filibuster.

There have been other signs of Republican unrest too. Nebraska moderate Republican Rep. Don Bacon has said he plans to introduce a House version of the Grassley/Cantwell bill. Normally solid Trumpists like Ted Cruz and billionaire executive branch arsonist Elon Musk have also both expressed skepticism about Trump’s tariff policy.

Profiles in (not quite) courage

Republicans are publicly criticizing Trump. They’re also introducing and voting on bills to curtail Trump’s tariffs. This matters. It means the media has more room to portray the tariffs as actually bad, rather than simply defaulting to easy “R said/D said” both sides narratives.

In addition, open dissent by a significant number of Republicans helps break the collective action problem. Trump can target one or two GOP dissenters, but it’s much harder to excommunicate nine or 10, including co-president Musk. A quorum of people speaking up makes it possible for even more people to dissent. This is how you build up to effective resistance.

But while effective resistance is dimly visible somewhere in the future, we have not arrived there as of yet. Again, there aren’t enough Republican dissenters to pass Grassley/Cantwell over a filibuster, much less a presidential veto. And it’s unclear that the GOP anti-tariff caucus has the stomach for more aggressive tactics.

Would the GOP anti-tariff caucus be willing to join with Democrats to sink the Republican reconciliation bill with all its billionaire tax cut goodies unless and until it includes provisions stripping Trump of tariff power? Would Bacon and other anti-tariff House Republicans withhold their votes in the House?

Given that we’re facing what could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, you’d like to think that the answers there would be an easy “yes”. But, considering Republican fecklessness, it seems more than likely that Grassley, Paul, McConnell, Tillis, and the rest will throw away their leverage the minute they have to actually oppose Trump directly.

Congress has a great deal of power to restrain the president — in theory. In practice, many congresspeople and senators are true believing cult members, and those who aren’t are extremely risk averse. They don’t want to take controversial votes or be responsible for anything. They certainly don’t want to oppose the president of their own party even when that president is obviously a callous fool hellbent on demolishing the economy and with it farms, small businesses, and consumers, all for reasons he and his minions aren’t able to articulate coherently.

Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.

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