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theliberaltony · 3 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): We’re back this week with the other 2022 primaries that are already on our radar — specifically, the big gubernatorial primaries and House primaries/macro trends to watch, as many House races are still in their nascent stage.

What follows is a preview of the candidates we know to be running (or at least seriously thinking about it) along with the intraparty fights Republicans and Democrats are having and what, if anything, this says about the general election.

OK, first up gubernatorial primaries. Which ones have already caught your eye?

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): One primary I’m watching is on the Democratic side in Florida. It looks like it will be a heavyweight contest between Rep. Charlie Crist, who was previously elected governor as a Republican, and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, Florida’s only current Democratic statewide officeholder. And to add even more intrigue, state Sen. Annette Taddeo — who was Crist’s running mate the last time he ran for governor, in 2014 — has expressed interest in running, too.

Early polls give Crist a lead, which makes sense since he has lingering name recognition from his previous gubernatorial runs. But Fried could be more in line with the current zeitgeist of the party. Crist is an older white guy and, as a veteran of state politics, represents the party’s past. Fried, by contrast, is a younger woman who has already demonstrated a knack for online media (e.g., her multiple videos trolling Gov. Ron DeSantis).

Since Donald Trump was elected in 2016, it’s been good to be a woman in a Democratic primary, and I feel like it will also help Fried that she’s the one throwing red meat (blue meat?) to the Democratic base — if it remains a one-on-one race.

sarah: That’s a good point about Crist, Nathaniel. Alex had a piece earlier this year showing that Crist’s bid could face long odds, as he’s already lost two back-to-back races. Per her story, since 1998, only 33 candidates of 121 who’ve run for U.S. Senate, governor or president have managed to win after having lost their previous bid.

alex (Alex Samuels, politics reporter): Yeah, Sarah, in that piece we also cited a February Mason-Dixon poll of registered Florida voters, and just 27 percent said they viewed Crist favorably. Forty-one percent viewed him unfavorably.

Of course, things might have changed since then. But those numbers aren’t a great start …

sarah: How competitive, though, do we think the Florida governor’s race is going to be with DeSantis up for reelection?

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Florida has continued to move to the right in recent presidential elections, so it may not be the quintessential swing state it once was. While most of the swing states in the 2020 presidential election shifted to the left at least a little bit compared with 2016, Florida did the opposite. Trump actually won it by a larger margin than he did in 2016.

nrakich: Florida does have a knack for being close no matter which way the political winds are blowing, though. It was close in 2010, 2014 and 2018. So I think it will be competitive, but I wouldn’t bet against DeSantis.

alex: I wonder, though, if Democrats will use DeSantis’s very possible 2024 presidential run against him.

geoffrey.skelley: Democrats could certainly try to use DeSantis’s national ambitions in attack ads — “he doesn’t care about Florida; he cares about his political career” — but the effectiveness of such an attack might vary based on who the Democratic nominee is.

If it’s Crist, who has been governor, but then ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2010 as an independent (after it became clear he would lose the GOP primary to Marco Rubio), and now wants to be governor again, such an attack might ring hollow because he’s seen as something of a political opportunist. Fried, on the other hand, is a fresh face and maybe could make that stick more. Nonetheless, I don’t think it’s the kind of thing that’s going to move the numbers much.

sarah: OK, Geoffrey, you’re up next.

geoffrey.skelley: Moving to another state that’s definitely no longer a swing state, I’m keeping a close eye on Ohio’s gubernatorial contest and its GOP primary. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine won in 2018 and now is looking for a second term, but he’s gotten quite a bit of intraparty backlash for his aggressive policies against COVID-19 — the Republican-controlled state legislature even voted to limit DeWine’s power to issue public health orders earlier this year. He also has attracted Trump’s wrath for not being a more vocal supporter. As such, former GOP Rep. Jim Renacci has decided to challenge DeWine in the GOP primary, and while it’s unusual for an incumbent governor to lose renomination, there’s at least some chance that could happen in Ohio.

It should be mentioned, however, that Renacci’s last campaign wasn’t especially impressive, as he lost the 2018 Senate race to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by about 7 percentage points, having jumped over to that race after initially running in the gubernatorial contest that DeWine went on to win.

sarah: We were talking last week about how much the Ohio Senate primary, in particular, seemed to revolve around the question of who could be the Trumpiest candidate. Considering DeWine has received a fair amount of criticism from those in his own party, is he taking this primary bid seriously?

geoffrey.skelley: Well, Renacci is certainly trying to win over Trump supporters who are upset with DeWine. He tweeted last month that “Ohio First means America First!” and has gone after DeWine for his decision to close Ohio businesses and facilities to protect the public from the coronavirus.

alex: Brad Parscale, Trump’s onetime campaign manager, is also advising Renacci, according to NBC News.

sarah: But no Trump endorsement yet, right?

nrakich: Right, Sarah. That’s the big question for me in this race — will Trump endorse? Renacci was previously a close Trump ally and won his endorsement in 2018, but Trump reportedly soured on Renacci after his poor showing against Brown.

alex: NBC News also reported that a source told them the former president “has no plans to endorse him.”

geoffrey.skelley: Although Trump did openly encourage someone to run against DeWine.

sarah: I realize our primary challenge success-o-meter isn’t exactly apples-to-apples given this isn’t a presidential primary, but how would we weigh Renacci’s bid against DeWine currently?

geoffrey.skelley: Unfortunately, we haven’t seen a good independent poll of Ohio in a while. But back in the fall in 2020, DeWine polled quite well — for instance, an Ipsos/Spectrum News survey found last October that about two-thirds of Ohioans approved of his job performance, including 73 percent of Republicans. That was perhaps a little low for a Republican but still not the sort of terrible position that would indicate serious vulnerability in a primary. However, DeWine didn’t support Trump’s post-election attempts to overturn the election, so perhaps opposition has grown. Renacci’s internal polling — which should be treated with serious caution — did find him ahead of DeWine in the spring.

sarah: I’ll go next with the Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary.

Last week we talked about the Pennsylvania Senate primary, but there’s more than one marquee race in the state this year. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited, meaning the governor’s mansion is also up for grabs. Who’s actually running in this race is still very TBD, though.

For instance, no Democrat has officially declared they’re running at this point. But that may be because everyone is waiting to see what state Attorney General Josh Shapiro does. Earlier this year, he told Philadelphia Magazine that “I expect to be a candidate.” And if Shapiro does run, he’s likely a front-runner on the Democratic side given the profile he has built as the state’s attorney general. In 2017, he tackled the Catholic Church’s decades of sexual abuse in Pennsylvania dioceses. He also joined other attorneys general in fighting Trump’s travel ban and an injunction that stopped Trump’s rollback of birth control. Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney is reportedly considering a run, too, but he’d have to resign as mayor if he did run.

Among Republicans, though, far more names have been floated at this point, and even a few have entered the fray, including former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta. Barletta ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2018, but he’s built a reputation as a bit of a conservative folk hero for trying to take on illegal immigration while he was mayor of Hazleton, Pennsylvania. The law was ultimately struck down, but Barletta tried to penalize businesses and landlords who hired or rented to immigrants who had illegally entered the country. So far this Trumpy profile hasn’t helped Barletta win statewide office in Pennsylvania, though, and it looks as if he might face stiff competition from other Trumpy Republicans in 2022.

For instance, state Sen. Doug Mastriano hasn’t said he’s running yet — although he claimed Trump had asked him to run and promised to help him campaign (an aide told the AP that wasn’t true) — but he’s already showing his Trump bona fides, having hosted a hearing devoted to unfounded claims of 2020 election fraud and marching to the U.S. Capitol before the Jan. 6 insurrection. He’s also pushing an Arizona-style “audit” of the 2020 election in Pennsylvania.

But Mastriano isn’t the only possible contender with connections to Trump. Rep. Mike Kelly is also reportedly considering a bid and has a relationship with Trump. Notably, too, Trump-appointed former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain has already written to Trump seeking his endorsement even though he hasn’t yet said whether he’ll run. If McSwain does enter the race, though, it means potentially two prosecutors could go head-to-head in the general election.

A number of other Republicans are considering runs at this point, too, including U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser and state Sen. Dan Laughlin. Not to mention a number of candidates who have already thrown their hats in the ring with Barletta, including Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale and conservative activist Charlie Gerow.

The Republican gubernatorial primary in Pennsylvania is looking really harried at this point, and similar to many of the other primaries we’ve discussed, it seems as if it is going to be a competition around who can out-Trump the other.

geoffrey.skelley: Republicans are definitely hoping Pennsylvania will continue its pattern of flipping back and forth between the parties. It’s been more than 50 years since either party elected a successor to a sitting member from their party, and it’s never happened since the state got rid of its single-term limit in 1968.

alex: How likely is it that the Senate seat flips without the governor’s seat flipping, too?

nrakich: Good question, Alex. States don’t always vote the same way for Senate and governor, since one office is federal and the other is state-level, but the two offices have been tracking more closely in recent years. As Geoffrey wrote a few years ago, there was less split-ticket voting in 2018 than in any midterm since at least 1990.

geoffrey.skelley: And Pennsylvania voted very similarly for Senate and governor in 2018, when both races had incumbents, and I suspect they’ll vote similarly this time, too. After all, neither race will have an incumbent this time, so that will mean no candidate will get the ever-smaller incumbent bonus.

sarah: OK, Alex, you’re up!

alex: Well, Georgia is becoming a competitive battleground state, as evidenced by President Biden’s win there in November and Sens. Jon Ossoff’s and Raphael Warnock’s respective victories earlier this year. So the gubernatorial primary is going to be fun to watch.

On the Republican side, you have incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp fighting for a second term in what maybe should have been an easy feat for him. But after he didn’t embrace Trump’s unfounded claims about widespread election fraud in last year’s election, Kemp lost the support of some Republicans — particularly those on his right flank. So he has a couple of primary challengers now, including Vernon Jones, a former Democratic state lawmaker turned Republican and one of Trump’s most vocal allies in Georgia, and also Kandiss Taylor, a public school teacher and counselor.

What’s working in Kemp’s favor, other than his incumbency, is the fact that he did sign a far-ranging election measure in March that includes new restrictions on voting by mail and greater legislative control over how elections are run. That hasn’t placated Trump, though, who called the law “weak” and said Republicans in the state should have taken far more drastic steps to curtail the ability to vote; Republican voters, however, have rallied around the state’s new voting law, and according to a Morning Consult tracking poll, Kemp had a 62 percent approval rating among Georgia Republican voters when he signed the elections bill on March 25. By April 6, it was up to 74 percent.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, I think everyone is just waiting patiently to see whether Stacey Abrams runs again. A lot of folks see the former speaker of the Georgia House running again in 2022 as a likely next step. A January poll from The Atlanta-Journal Constitution found that about 51 percent of Georgians viewed her in a positive light, including 10 percent of Republicans (although 41 percent of Georgians viewed her unfavorably).

geoffrey.skelley: Unlike in most states, a worry for Kemp is that he has to win a majority of primary voters because Georgia is one of seven states with a majority requirement for primary elections. So a crowded race doesn’t help him by splitting opposition — it would just get him a runoff where he’d have to win a majority.

sarah: The call for primary challengers in both Georgia’s and Ohio’s gubernatorial races from Trump … and then radio silence on who he’d back is certainly a strategy, though. It doesn’t seem as if either race, at this point at least, is posing a credible threat to the GOP incumbent.

nrakich: Yeah, Kemp is vulnerable in theory, but I just don’t see any credible candidate standing up to challenge him. It could get interesting if Trump endorses someone like Jones, but ultimately I don’t think he has what it takes. It will be incredibly easy for Kemp to smear him as a former Democrat, and Jones has a pretty sordid past — while serving as DeKalb County CEO, he was accused of rape, and a grand jury recommended that he be criminally investigated for corruption.

sarah: As we were talking about in Pennsylvania, though, the fact that Georgia has two elections up here in 2022 will be interesting, as the incumbents aren’t from the same political party.

So considering split-ticket voting is on the decline, it’ll be interesting to see whether Warnock and Abrams, assuming she runs again, win. Or whether it’s Kemp and as we discussed last week, Herschel Walker. Walker, though, as we said, still hasn’t entered the race, and given that he is a longtime Texas resident, he could face serious issues mounting a successful bid against Warnock.

It’s early yet, but these two races seem to be a little mismatched in terms of competition, as Abrams would be a heavyweight were she to enter, and Walker just isn’t that.

geoffrey.skelley: That potential scenario — if Walker is the GOP Senate nominee — could be interesting because the little swing vote that exists could be critical in places like affluent northern Fulton County and suburban Cobb and Gwinnett counties, where at least a few Kemp 2018-Warnock 2020 voters live. Will those voters line up behind one party or stick with Warnock and then go for Kemp again?

nrakich: One effect that the primary could have, even if Kemp wins it, is to push him further to the right — which could turn off voters like that. That’s basically what happened to former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Warnock’s 2020 opponent.

geoffrey.skelley: Exactly. The handful of voters who went for Warnock but in some cases stuck with former Sen. David Perdue — who lost to Ossoff in the other Senate race — are the voters I’m thinking about here.

sarah: OK, now this is a harder office to track at this point given the number of races, but what do we know about House primaries at this point? Or macro trends about the House that you’re already plugged into?

alex: There was an interesting PBS piece on how a gerrymandered Texas, specifically, could help Republicans with their goal of taking back the House in 2022. Here are some of the takeaways: Since the state gained two seats in the reapportionment process and the GOP-controlled legislature is in charge of making the new maps, these seats will likely be prime pickup opportunities for Republicans. What’s working against Republicans here is that Texas suburbs are becoming more blue, and they’ve already been accused of gerrymandering. But I think it’s fair to assume lawmakers will try to redraw these districts to benefit their party. And considering Republicans need only five seats to flip the House in 2022, Texas’s two new seats are a good opportunity for that.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, the big thing is redistricting. That’s going to influence where candidates run and who retires, and as Alex notes, who might win. If you’re the GOP drawing lines in big states like Texas or Florida, maybe you try to add Republican voters to a handful of Democratic-held seats.

That said, you still have a lot of candidates already declaring bids even though they don’t necessarily know exactly where the seat is going to be, simply because candidates need to start raising money and may have some inkling as to what the district in their area will look like.

sarah: And as Geoffrey and Alex are getting at, Republicans will disproportionately control the redistricting process. As Geoffrey and Nathaniel reported earlier this year, Republicans will redraw nearly 2.5 times as many districts as Democrats, 187 congressional districts versus 75. (To be sure, there are also 173 districts where neither party will enjoy exclusive control over redistricting — either because of independent commissions or split partisan control or because it’s an at-large district.)

nrakich: Thanks to redistricting, a big theme in House primaries next year is also going to be incumbent-versus-incumbent battles. Take a state like West Virginia, which is going from three congressional seats to two. Two of its current representatives are inevitably going to be drawn into the same district. Unless one retires, that will be a pretty spirited race.

And other incumbents could be thrown into races against each other in states where the opposite party controls redistricting — for example, Illinois Democrats may draw two of the state’s downstate Republicans together.

geoffrey.skelley: Aside from redistricting, I’d say the other main place where primary challenges are developing is with the 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach Trump in January. I dug into their races earlier this year, and all but one of them already has at least one primary challenger. The lone one without a challenger is New York Rep. John Katko, but Trump recently told local Republicans he’d be happy to boost a challenger if they can find one. Then again, it’s also possible that Katko’s district will change substantially in redistricting because Democrats are in a position to control the process there.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a handful of them retire or, because of redistricting, find themselves without a similar district to run in. Along with Katko, Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s seat could be ripped up by state Democrats, who control things. And in Ohio, Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez’s impeachment vote probably won’t make him a priority for the state GOP to protect as they draw maps there.

sarah: It is a midterm election, though, and traditionally the party in the White House has fared poorly as a result. We’ve talked about why that might not be the case here in 2022, but one question I have is about the overall map. Do Democrats just have more vulnerabilities — that is, more Republican-leaning seats to defend — than Republicans?

geoffrey.skelley: Well, it’s interesting. Democrats actually are much less exposed headed into 2022 than in 2010, the last midterm for a first-term Democratic president. Using FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric, 74 Democrats represented seats that were more Republican than the country as a whole heading into the 2010 election. By comparison, only 24 Democrats are in the same position right now. So almost 3 in 10 Democrats in 2010 versus 1 in 10 Democrats today.

However, those pre-2022 numbers won’t be the final story because redistricting will change the state of play quite a bit in some states. And because Republicans control redistricting in more places, I suspect those numbers are more likely to worsen than improve for Democrats.

And given the Democrats’ narrow 222-213 seat edge, small changes could be enough to give the GOP a majority, too.

sarah: Interesting. There’s simply less easy ground for Republicans to make up, at least at this point, especially given some of their gains in 2020. But as you’ve all pointed out, what happens in the redistricting process could make a big difference moving into 2022.

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brajeshupadhyay · 4 years ago

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Premier League restart preview No 19: West Ham | Football

Admittedly the improvement came out of the blue. The mood was low after a calamitous 3-3 home draw with Brighton on 1 February but Moyes found a better balance as the weeks progressed and his side crept out of the bottom three thanks to a 3-1 win over Southampton at the end of the month. Bowen scored his first goal for the club, Sébastien Haller and Michail Antonio dazzled up front and West Ham looked dangerous in their last league outing, even though it ended in an unfortunate 1-0 defeat at Arsenal.

What about now? Nervy given that 16th-placed West Ham are only above Watford and Bournemouth on goal difference and were concerned about the financial consequences of relegation even in pre-pandemic times. Staying in the top flight is vital after the move to the London Stadium and Moyes could have done without Jeremy Ngakia, who did well at right-back after being handed his debut in January, deciding to leave on a free at the end of the month. The 19-year-old is out of contract on 30 June and is not even considering a short-term extension, infuriating Moyes. “We are really surprised and disappointed that Jeremy is not going to stay at West Ham,” the manager said last week. Still, at least Jack Wilshere is fit after recovering from a hernia operation. Wilshere has struggled with injuries since joining West Ham in 2018 and the former Arsenal and England midfielder, who has a year left on his deal, has been handed a chance to remind Moyes of his worth thanks to the unexpected break.

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What needs to be done for a successful end to the season? Moyes is focused on improving his side’s defensive shape. He wants clean sheets and needs a settled back four. Ryan Fredericks needs to knuckle down at right-back, while Angelo Ogbonna and Issa Diop must ensure there are no costly lapses of concentration in central defence. West Ham have been too open this season and there will be pressure on Declan Rice to shield the back four – a job made easier by the arrival of Soucek. There is talent in this squad and there are attacking options. Bowen is dangerous cutting in from the left, Pablo Fornals is improving and defenders will not enjoy playing against the physicality of Haller and Antonio.

Have the players and staff behaved during lockdown? Moyes could have done without Rice having a kickabout with Chelsea’s Mason Mount on 15 March.

Any unsung/community heroes? Moyes spent part of lockdown delivering fruit and vegetables for his local food shop. “There was a thing up in the window that said drivers needed,” the Scot said in April. “I volunteered to do it as my wife was away at the time and I was on my own. So I became a fruit and veg driver.”

Key player in the run-in? Antonio only has two goals this season but West Ham are never quite as threatening without his pace and strength. The attack lacked oomph when the forward was out for three months after a hamstring operation in August. The problem is that his hamstrings are very unreliable.

Michail Antonio in action in a friendly against Crystal Palace on 13 June. Photograph: Arfa Griffiths/West Ham United FC/Getty Images

End-of-season-prediction The margins remain fine but West Ham should have enough talent to stay up. While they still have to face Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Wolves, their rivals have tougher run-ins. Home games against Burnley, Watford and Aston Villa are likely to be pivotal.

Remaining fixtures (all times BST): Sat 20 June Wolves (h) – 5.30pm, Sky Sports Tues 23 June Tottenham (a) – 8.15pm, Sky Sports Weds 1 July Chelsea (h) – 8.15pm, Sky Sports TBC Newcastle (a), Burnley (h), Norwich (a), Watford (h), Manchester United (a), Aston Villa (h)

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junker-town · 5 years ago

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The 5 most fireable NFL coaches one month into the season

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

At the quarter mark of the season, Dan Quinn joins the list after the Falcons have limped to a 1-3 start, while Jay Gruden’s seat has reached a broil.

The end of September means the start of the autumn season. For NFL coaches, it’s the start of hot seat season, too.

Four weeks of the 2019 campaign has created a telling preview of what may come. The Patriots and Chiefs have risen to the top of the NFL landscape at 4-0. The Dolphins and Cardinals have unsurprisingly gone to the other end of the spectrum in winless starts. And while that was more or less predictable, a few unexpected developments have added new creases to the way this year’s coaching carousel may unfold.

Matt Patricia looked destined for the hot seat after a disappointing debut season and then a Week 1 come-from-ahead tie against the Cardinals that saw Arizona erase an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit. He’s since inspired confidence with upset wins over the Chargers and Eagles while pushing the Chiefs to their limit in a Week 4 loss. Any concerns about Kyle Shanahan have since been excised by a 3-0 start that has the 49ers as one of the league’s three remaining undefeated teams. Doug Marrone was 0-2 and staring down a pink slip (and Jalen Ramsey’s trade demand) until Gardner Minshew and Leonard Fournette brought the wins that temporarily smoothed things over in Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are 1-3 and staring down a stretch of 14 games started by backup Mason Rudolph. Adam Gase’s first season with the Jets has been derailed by bad play and worse luck — namely, the kind that sidelines a quarterback with mononucleosis. No one’s really sure what Mike Vrabel’s Titans are capable of, but they’re on pace for a typically unremarkable 9-7 campaign (as is tradition).

With a quarter of the season more or less finished, a handful of coaches are in danger being let go before 2019 is finished. Here are the five who have the most to worry about after Week 4, in order of most concerning to least.

Jay Gruden, Washington

Gruden pulled his last playable card in Week 4, benching Case Keenum in favor of first-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Unfortunately for him, the former Ohio State star looked very much like an underprepared rookie against the Giants.

Haskins led his offense to as many points as he had interceptions thrown in a 24-3 loss to New York rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. As the Giants rekindled their postseason hopes by improving to 2-2, Washington fell to 0-4 and effectively watched its shot at contention slip even further out of reach.

That could spell the end for Gruden, who fell to 35-48-1 in five-plus seasons as the team’s head coach. He came into the season as the betting favorite to be the first man canned this fall, and a winless September only frayed the string of Damocles’ sword above his head.

Gruden’s been able to survive a career devoid of even a single 10-win season thanks to his ability to develop passing talent. He turned Kirk Cousins from a fourth-round backup into a Pro Bowler and got an Alex Smith-led team out to a 6-3 start last year before a catastrophic leg injury ended Smith’s season and sent Washington into a tailspin.

That bad luck extended his grace period to 2019, but more misfortune has befallen him since. Management refuses to extend left tackle Trent Williams’ contract, leading to a still-going holdout and the continued absence of the team’s best blocker. Starters like Brandon Scherff, Terry McLaurin, Derrius Guice, and Jordan Reed have all missed time due to injury. This all effectively shrank the team’s playoff chances to nothing. Gruden’s only real hope is to grow Haskins by leaps and bounds and make the case that his coaching was instrumental in the rookie quarterback reaching his potential.

There’s still time for that to happen — but owner Dan Snyder’s patience could run out before Haskins shows any real signs of development. No one in the NFL has a hotter seat than Gruden right now. Things are so desperate in the nation’s capital that it could be time for Colt McCoy to take his seat on the team’s carousel of sadness in Week 5. To be fair, that would save Haskins the embarrassment of having his lunch money stolen by the Patriots on Sunday.

Bill O’Brien, Texans

A 16-10 loss to the Panthers was an amalgamation of everything O’Brien’s struggled with in his Texans tenure and a CliffsNotes readthrough of Week 4’s dumbest mistakes. Houston couldn’t protect Deshaun Watson, failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities, burned a timeout with a misused replay challenge, and even added some baffling offensive playcalls to throw a can of hairspray onto the “Fire O’Brien” flames.

Bill O'Brien has Logged On pic.twitter.com/sXJwX24pDX

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) September 29, 2019

The Panthers came into their road showdown with the Texans having given up more than 23 points per game on average. Then they shut down a Houston offense led by one of the league’s most exciting young quarterbacks and a completely stacked receiving corps thanks in part to O’Brien’s inability to establish any kind of offensive rhythm. That’s something the franchise could write off if it were a blip on the radar. Instead, the former Penn State head coach and the Texans’ current de facto general manager has made it a trend.

O’Brien’s tenure in Houston has been filled with “just good enough” performances that take advantage of a disheveled AFC South en route to disappointing January finishes. The Texans have been to the playoffs three times in the last four years but only have one win to show for it — and that came against a Derek Carr-less Raiders team. Houston is currently stuck in a four-way tie for first in the division and is in strong position to make another run at the crown. Unfortunately for O’Brien, just getting to the postseason may not be enough for a head coach whose ceiling has been capped at “good” but never “great” in his five-plus seasons in Texas.

Dan Quinn, Falcons

The Falcons should not be this bad. Atlanta is 1-3 and ranks just 26th in scoring offense despite boasting a former MVP at quarterback and one of the league’s most talented receiving groups. The defense has given up 20 points or more in each of its games even after extending stars Grady Jarrett and Deion Jones this offseason. The team has trailed by 21, 17, and 17 at halftime in its three defeats so far.

The blame in this demoralizing season has fallen on Quinn. The fifth-year coach is only 18-18 after his breakthrough 2016 season and his biggest asset — creating havoc plays in the middle of a stingy defense — has been absent in 2019. Owner Arthur Blank spent big this offseason to create a win-now environment, only to see his team sink to the bottom of the NFC South.

Fortunately for Quinn, a 1-3 start isn’t a burial in a conference where no team but the 49ers has really stepped up. The Saints lead the division at 3-1, but remain vulnerable with Drew Brees sidelined for roughly half the season due to a thumb injury. The Panthers and Buccaneers are both flawed products. While Atlanta’s upcoming schedule isn’t especially rosy — three of its next four games are against 2018 playoff teams — there’s still time for Quinn to prove Blank made the right investments last offseason.

The bad news for Quinn is that his team can barely go a week without shooting itself in the foot, and that reflects especially poorly on his coaching.

Mike Zimmer, Vikings

Kirk Cousins was supposed to be the keystone that held the rest of Minnesota’s powerful roster in place. Instead, he’s regressed in 1.25 seasons under Zimmer, leaving the Vikings stuck in limbo and turning up the heat under his head coach’s seat by a few degrees each week.

Minnesota has been unable to replicate the magic of its 13-3 2017. In the process, its quarterback play has stagnated despite an ostensible upgrade from Case Keenum to Cousins. That raises the question as to whether then-offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was more responsible for the team’s success than we knew at the time. The Vikings have been eager to answer it; they fired John DeFilippo during the 2018 season and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski at OC. The change hasn’t worked out so far. His unit ranks 18th in the league in scoring offense.

Zimmer’s biggest problem in Minnesota has been an inability to make adjustments mid-game based on what he’s seeing on the field. While this mostly applies to playcalling, it was on display Sunday when he burned a first-half timeout that effectively convinced the Bears to rethink a fourth-and-3 punt and go for it — and convert en route to a field goal — instead. Zimmer stopped the clock to avoid a flag for 12 men on the field, but he called timeout after it was clear Chicago was ready to take a delay of game penalty to create a little extra space for its punter.

That’s a small mistake that had repercussions in a game where defense ruled, and it was entirely avoidable with a little extra awareness. That’s a strong thesis statement for the Zimmer era in Minnesota, and that’s why he could be fired in 2019 if he can’t push an underachieving team to the postseason.

Ron Rivera, Panthers

Rivera’s fortunes have shifted the past two weeks as Kyle Allen and the Carolina defense have outperformed expectations. While two straight wins have given the Panthers new life in the topsy-turvy NFC, Riverboat Ron isn’t out of the woods yet.

Beating a winless Cardinals team and allowing the Texans to self-destruct in front of them weren’t exactly awe-inspiring victories. Games against the surging Jaguars and a Buccaneers team that already beat the Panthers at home will provide a greater barometer of whether Allen and Rivera are a potent pairing or a quiet cry for Cam Newton to return to full strength.

Should Carolina’s surge die down, Rivera may be in trouble. He had the league’s third-best odds to be fired after that 0-2 start. He’s been able to fend off pressure by dialing up winning seasons in odd-numbered years (he’s got playoff berths in ‘13, ‘15, and ‘17), but the years in-between have been unpleasant.

A second straight losing season could be enough to convince new owner David Tepper a change is in order. Tepper, who took over the team during the 2018 offseason, has given his head coach a relatively long leash rather than make wholesale changes upon his arrival. Another year of meaningless December games could be all he needs to see to install his own choice at the top of the team’s decision-making flowchart.

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eastbridge-sb · 5 years ago

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Premier League Asian Total Goals Previews – 2nd November Saturday

Bournemouth v Manchester United

Games between these two always seem to offer goals and I expect an entertaining game at the Vitality Stadium once again.

This is despite Bournemouth’s lack of goals recently. They haven’t score for three games against some pretty average defences in recent games, however, I feel like this is just a blip and they have good enough forwards to trouble any team in the league.

Callum Wilson and Josh King have formed a really good partnership over the last few years and, with the likes of Ryan Fraser and Harry Wilson supplying them from either wing, it’s almost harder them to not find the back of the net.

Despite those three blanks, the Cherries scored 13 goals in their opening seven games, which is almost two per game. And, like most teams, they’ll relish going up against a Manchester United who have certainly struggled at times this season.

As for United, they re-found their shooting boots away at Norwich last weekend, scoring three goals and posting an xG (Expected Goals) of 4.5. Marcus Rashford now has some support up-top with Anthony Martial returning to fitness and youngster Mason Greenwood creeping into the first-team picture, so they’re not short of exciting forwards.

I mentioned these two and their goal-heavy head-to-head record, and there’s been an average of three goals in their previous meetings since Bournemouth were promoted in 2015. There’s been two 3-1’s and a 4-1 in those games and I can see a similar scoreline here.

You can back over 2.5 Asian goals at 1.850 and, with both sides’ defences looking suspect at the moment, I think the likes of Wilson, King, Rashford and Martial will all fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet on the south coast on Saturday lunchtime. This is a simple one, three or more goals and we have ourselves a winner.

Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 goals at 1.850

Sheffield United v Burnley

Burnley are stereotypically a very industrious side that are predominantly defensive minded, but they’re actually one of the top scoring sides in the league this season. Just seven other teams have scored more than Sean Dyche’s side this season, but I think this is a slightly misleading statistic.

Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes have scored nearly 60% of those goals, and another two of those were long-range strikers late on against Chelsea last weekend. Wood is struggling for fitness and Barnes hasn’t scored for the last few weeks, so I can see the Clarets having to revert back to their more cautious approach this weekend.

I mentioned the other week that Sheffield United were lacking someone to score them goals, and a couple of weeks later Lys Mousset starts getting amongst the goals for the Blades. He hasn’t proved me wrong just yet, but perhaps he’s the man that can help get Chris Wilder’s side finally find the net more regularly.

They’ve scored nine goals in their opening ten games, which isn’t a great record at all, and they haven’t necessarily got the xG to suggest this will improve. I like a lot of their defensive and midfield players – the likes of Jack O’Connell and John Fleck – but I’m not convinced this will help them improve their poor goal record anytime soon.

On paper, this game stood out as a low-scoring game straight away and, when I delved deeper into the stats, they back my original ideas up. Under 2.25 Asian goals is available at 1.840, which would mean even three goals would see us win half of our return. One or two goals would result in a full pay out, four or more would be a loser.

Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.250 goals at 1.840

West Ham v Newcastle

I backed Newcastle last weekend at home to Wolves and they let me down. It’s safe to say I’m not doing the same thing again this week. Part of the reason for that is their miserable away record. They’ve lost four of their last five games on the road – their only win was a 1-0 victory at Tottenham which, admittedly, a good result. But it was at the start of Spurs’ poor run, so it seems like they caught them at the right time.

I question where their goals are coming from. Joelinton still hasn’t quite hit the heights that most people were expecting to and Miguel Almiron has failed to score or assist since his move from the MLS almost a year ago. Their goal in their 1-1 draw with Wolves last weekend came courtesy of a set-piece and, if that’s their main source of goals on Saturday, I think they’ll struggle against a West Ham side who have some aerially strong players.

I’m a fan of Manuel Pellegrini’s West Ham this season. Their underlying numbers haven’t been great, but I think that they’ve got too many talented players not to cause teams problems. I’ve hammered (pardon the pun) on about the attacking trio of Manuel Lanzini, Felipe Anderson and Sebastian Haller, and they are always set-up to entertain at the London Stadium.

They were unfortunate to not get a win against Sheffield United in East London in their last home game but, generally, have a solid record in front of their home fans. You can back them to win at 1.900 to pick up all three points in this game and I think this looks a really good price.

1×2 Betting Recommendation: West Ham at 1.900

Preview by: @AdamGoodwin__

Make use of these recommendations and place your fancies with Eastbridge’s Skype betting. Want to try out something new? Register on VOdds and get your hands on odds from various bookies and bet on the best pick.

The post Premier League Asian Total Goals Previews – 2nd November Saturday appeared first on Eastbridge.

source https://eastbridge-sb.com/premier-league-asian-total-goals-previews-021119/

#sports #sports news #football #european football #english football

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zachwritesstuff · 6 years ago

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Awesome Trevor: The Long and Winding Road

I’m very used to writing things about other people, products and properties. So this one is going to be a slightly weird one for me. It’s a story of hopeful imagination, and disappointment; Of long hours working to make things perfect, and never finding it; And going through version, formats, people, places and ideas just to keep an idea afloat. But, most importantly, it’s the story of Awesome Trevor, an idea that is eight years in the making, yet so far has not given any worthwhile fruit, no matter how hard we tried. In writing this out, I’m hoping to both show the trials and tribulation of taking an idea from concept to fruition, and how impossible it might seem sometimes. Idealism and inspiration can be a hell of a stimulant, while stalling and depression can be a hell of a… depressant. So maybe someone can get something interesting out of it, or at least find the whole saga entertaining, I don’t know. I should probably quit stalling and actually get to the point… It all started...

Part 1: The Movie

The year is 2010. Just barely out of high school, I was now in Community College, and not working, which was a dumb idea for many reasons. I had worked on independent, or more accurately, amateur, film projects a dozen times, both for class and simply because I wanted to. None of them were good. Despite the fact that I was an adult, I still was not a competent film maker (And some might say that I still am not). But I was young, and still had the delusions of being a big shot director someday. All I needed, I reasoned, was a big project to really pick things up and get a bit of a spotlight. I could continue making simple YouTube videos, but if I actually wanted to get anywhere, I needed to make something bigger.

So I had to make a feature film.

I talked to my regular cohort, Evan Greenhoe. I had known him for a few years at this point, having met when I was still in high school, and we had the same thirst for creating. While he was more of the on camera type, acting and performing music (he still is, but he was then too), I always felt more comfortable behind the scenes, writing and directing. We had talked over projects before, as we always loved making ideas and fleshing them out, and when I told him my desire to make a feature film, he almost instantly handed me the idea of Awesome Trevor.

He had come up with the idea with his girlfriend, Sarah, and had held onto the idea for a little while, never fully formed, but when we started talking about making bigger things, he figured it would be a fit. He had never really formed the idea too terribly deeply, beyond making it a video game inspired piece of a regular joe becoming a hero and saving the princess. We talked out the idea over several days, and eventually we had a strong base to work off of.

Now before I go any further, there is one important note I must add. Around this time, Scott Pilgrim vs The World had just come out. This is important because, in the beginning, Awesome Trevor was a rip off of that. In later years, we would change the story around to make it it’s own thing, but to start with, it was a story of a kind of loser dude going on a quest to save his ex girlfriend from a bunch of people from her past, one of which is even a weird ninja girl. It was a copy.

Now that we had our base, the next step was to write out this masterpiece of original fiction. This was no problem, as I had already written out a few feature length scripts before (all of them going unused, of course). While writing, though, I decided to change up the flow a bit: Instead of one movie, I would make it a six part series, and after all parts were released, I would edit them together as a movie! My genius knew no bounds…

So I got to writing this newly formatted script. I filled it with video game references, witty dialogue, and set it in local areas, so that it would be simpler to film. I introduced the amnesiac main character, Trevor; His tired roommate, Mark; The mysteriously vanished girlfriend, Mary; and the 4 mysterious bosses, Kevin Kurochi, Peyote Jones, Stephanie Connor and Samuel Tanner. The story was of Trevor, who woke up after a heavy night of drinking, to find his memories of a former girlfriend gone, and going on an adventure to get them back with the help of his quip filled roommate.

My wit, it burns....

The scripts, well… They weren’t great. They weren’t bad for an untrained 20 year old, but I would like to think I’ve come a long way from when I wrote them. But the most important thing was, we had our scripts. Now started the pre-production.

We pretty much had our cast right off, as they were mostly friends of ours. I was going to play Samuel, who was a bouncer at a club with super strength; Evan was to play Mark, the plucky costar; Kevin (a samurai), Peyote (a drugged out metal guitarist) and Stephanie (a cloaked ninja) were going to be played by our friends Ken, Adolf and Amber respectively; And Mary, who appeared as herself in only one scene, was planned to be played by a woman named Amanda Alch. who I was going to school with at the time and was already an established actress (Bad Kids Go To Hell and Claws). It’s likely she doesn’t even remember agreeing to appear in it, which is probably for the best.

Our starring role went to a good friend of mine from high school named Kyle Mason. Then, he was a kid in his late teens with an interest in cosplay and video production. Nowadays, he is a professional cosplayer and video producer, so he’s not doing too shabby. It didn’t take much convincing to have him play the lead role, and we were off to the races!

youtube

A Readthrough of the script, which of course didn’t go through any editing

I had even asked a dude I had met in college named James to be our Director of Photography, as he had had more experience working on original projects and camera work. Our hearts were working faster than our minds, and we skipped over dozens of important steps (setting proper schedules, storyboarding, finding proper funding, etc) in our pursuit, instead focusing on marketing, finding places to film, and practicing our parts. We even had popular content producers Video Games Awesome plug our project on their show, despite the fact that there was not any actual substance behind anything we were doing.

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Timestamp is at 9:24. A preview of what never comes...

The best way to sum this up is that is was an embarrassment to filmmaking. Had we actually started production as planned, everyone involved would probably hate each other, and the entire thing would be scrapped after about two episodes. I was saved by James cancelling his involvement, probably rightly sensing that this all was half assed, causing the production to fall behind and ultimately being cancelled due to people no longer being available.

And so the first part of this story ends with but a wisp of smoke that was our hope for a movie. Though we possibly dodged a bullet, I was still frustrated and disappointed by all of it, so I put the idea on hiatus and started working on other things. It would lay there for 3 years before it appeared again…

Part 2: The First Cartoon

2013. I was out of community college, and at the University of Texas. I didn’t fit in very well, and being farther away from home and friends made me a bit of a sad, lonely hermit. I knew several people at school, and though I would consider many of them friends now, back then, they were just classmates.

To occupy my time, I was doing side work for Frederator Studios, makers of such fine cartoons as Adventure Time, Fairly Odd Parents, and Chalkzone. I had become friendly with Fred Seibert, the founder of Frederator, after interviewing him a couple years prior, and he had let me make some videos for their YouTube Channel. While I was doing work there, they started up their Cartoon Hangover project, where people could pitch their own cartoons with relative ease, and if Frederator liked it, they would produce a full cartoon short.

This seemed like an amazing opportunity for both myself and Evan, who had experience with animation. I talked to him about it, and he was on board before I even finished explaining the whole thing to him. Like we always do, we started discussing ideas, and after long deliberations, we narrowed it down to three: Captain Amazo, the idiotic superhero; Metal Mania, which was about a metal bad traveling through space to be the biggest band in the galaxy; And, of course, Awesome Trevor, back from the dead.

Well, back from the dead is a slight misnomer. We had discussed the idea once more in between, thinking of bringing it back as a comic. We got far in our discussions, but never made any physical items to go with it, and soon it went back into its slumber.

Editing note: After reviewing the article, Evan has told me that he actually made a comic cover that he never showed me. The cover, unfortunately, has been lost to time.

Both of us were still feeling the sting from the failed mini-series/movie, and as we were now a little bit older, we decided to be a bit wiser as well. Not wise enough to not choose Awesome Trevor, mind you, but also hedging our bets by pitching two shows, the other being Captain Amazo. (Note: we did plan to pitch Metal Mania as well, but we never got around to finishing it).

So this process was pretty much a rinse and repeat. I went home and made a script, and from there, we began working on a pitch. This new script, while not a ton better than the originals, was still an improvement, and since we weren’t having to go through pre-production and big planning meetings, we were able to take stuff in stride. We kept the same general story, but decided to make stuff bigger and flashier, as we weren’t limited by the shackles of real life. We also changed around some of the character designs, as we wanted to have new actors play the characters.

I’m sure I thought of the shirt designs. I’m a comedy genius.

We kept the base designs of Mark and Trevor, but Samuel the Bouncer was changed to match the person we really wanted to play him, Seanbaby. Once Satisfied, we storyboarded everything out and sent them in to Frederator, eagerly awaiting the approval so we can start again on our dream project.

I wrote in the dialogue myself, despite my awful handwriting.

As these are the first you are ever seeing of the characters or story, it’s needless to say that we were denied. The problem with it was that, whoops, we had sent a full storyboard, when in fact they wanted a beat board (like a storyboard, but using thumbnails instead of large images). He also noted that the end of this pitch was left as a “To Be Continued”, and that they were looking for standalone ideas instead of pitches for full series.

Part 3: The Second Cartoon

While again disappointed, this wasn’t a denial based on content, instead just the way it was presented. So we went back to the literal drawing board and reworked the idea into a standalone. It was at this point, in the first time since the idea was formed, that we decided to change the story up. While we kept the saving the girl idea (as to us, it felt like a very video-game thing), we made him more of a player-character like character, almost like an avatar battling in a game.

Looking back through the beat boards we made, they were lame. While I had grown as a writer, I focused way too much on trying to make something someone else would like, and wrote in a very cliched way. Instead of trying to introduce or establish characters, I made Mark and Trevor generic, and didn’t even give defined forms to the people they were fighting. The jokes were bad, the characters were one note, and for some reason I felt the need to physically write out the dialogue on the sheet, despite the fact that I have terrible handwriting.

Seriously, why did I feel the need to write in the dialogue?!

Evan tried his best to work with what he was given, but I feel that I dropped the ball on this one. And of course it showed when I sent it in and got a response from Eric Homan, who runs all the creative development at Frederator.

“Thanks, Zach, for the work and continued interest.

Unfortunately, "Awesome Trevor" is very far away from what we're looking for in our Cartoon Hangover shorts, in everything from character to story to tone.

I may have recommended this before, but I really suggest you take a look at our shorts as we begin to release them in a few weeks. I think they'll give a better indication of the types of cartoons for which we're looking.

Thanks, again.

-- Eric”

In everything from character to story to tone. That said what needed to be said. Even though I was sour at the time, with five years of hindsight, I realized that Eric was, as he often is, completely right about it, in more way than I could have thought. It was a slapdash job on an idea that was already starting to become kind of stale. We tried to change it up, but in trying to rush this idea to get it made (I checked, there was literally one month between the denial of the first pitch and sending in the second pitch), I did a poor job and let both of us down.

I of course blamed people like Eric, who was just telling me the truth, and situations like my school life, which was causing me anxiety and depression, but deep down I knew that I had done poorly. I had taken this idea, that wasn’t even mine originally, and basically ruined it to the point where we felt like we couldn’t do anything more with it. So at this point, I want to make two apologies. One to Eric, who was simply trying to help and harboured resentment towards for years, and one to Evan, who I kind put a lot of pressure on while we were working on these, and probably wasn’t the best person to work with. Um… My bad.

Part 4: The Past and Future

That last one was probably the last major wave we had in trying to produce Awesome Trevor. It pops up in conversations of ideas a lot, but nothing ever comes to fruition. The closest that ever came after the second cartoon debacle was another video game video series related idea I had. The idea was of an NPC in an open world game who breaks programming and tries to fight back against the player character, who repeatedly kills people for no reason. After discussing that idea for a while, we thought of attaching the Awesome Trevor name to it, as they were both vaguely video game related, and even started jotting down some story ideas. But, like many plans, this one faded away, and was soon in the vault, like the thousand other things we come up with…

And, well, that’s kind of the end. There might have been an expectation of some kind of twist or surprise announcement, but that’s not always how things go. At this point, Awesome Trevor is just an old idea, one that had stewed in our minds for years now. It comes up in conversations every few months, maybe trying out a cartoon pitch again, or doing it as a podcast series, but so far, nothing is set in stone. Hell, it’s possible that after this, a new vigor of interests might pop up inside of us, and the world is finally introduced to this plan that is now 8+ years in the making. You never really can tell.

The main reason I wanted to write this was to just put this all out there, and finally view something of it. Maybe I wanted people to finally see this thing that has been on my mind for a portion of my life. Maybe it’s a cautionary tale of not stepping back and taking the necessary steps to make something come to life properly. Or maybe it’s simply my plea of vanity, begging someone to tell me what I made was good. At this point, I can’t really tell. I just hope someone enjoyed it enough to get to the end.

And man, did it get kind of depressing at the end. Well, for those who made it here, here is your secret easter egg ending. Presented in full is the original draft to the Awesome Trevor Theme Song, produced by the extremely talented Evan Greenhoe. Thank you for reading!

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giantsfootball0 · 7 years ago

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Lamar Jackson, Louisville Will Stun Defending Champions

One of the first things NFL scouts do when looking at prospects in preparation for the NFL Draft is watch them against the best competition they faced in the previous season. This fall, we’re going to take a look at the best head-to-head matchups in this week’s slate of college football games. Every week, I’ll give you look at some key matchups to keep an eye on across the country, highlight a prospect who is on the rise, profile a small-school player to watch for next year’s draft, find a Philly connection, and give out a well-deserved game ball to a prospect who stood out in a big way the previous week.

Many pundits view this Saturday’s slate as a “down” week for college football, but when I look around the country I think there are a lot of fun games to study. This week on the College Draft Podcast with Ross Tucker, I broke down all the best matchups from some of the top games of the week, but let’s look at five more matchups that fans should keep their eyes on.

Five Matchups To Watch

1. Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph vs. Pittsburgh Heinz Field, Pittsburgh- Noon – ESPN

At 6-5, 235 pounds, senior quarterback Mason Rudolph has gotten off to a scorching-hot start for the Cowboys this season, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in each of the team’s first two games against Tulsa and South Alabama. The Cowboys take on their best opponent yet in Pitt. It’s the first real test for Rudolph and his star receiver James Washington. One of Rudolph’s best traits is his deep ball, and I’d expect to see it early and often against the Panthers. He comes from an offensive system that doesn’t typically translate well to the NFL, but I think Rudolph can buck the trend and last in the league for a long time. He’s got light feet, a pretty good arm, and has the touch and timing of a pro quarterback.

Pitt (1-1) has had a rough start to the year, eeking out a win over Youngstown State at home before getting throttled by Penn State on the road. The Panthers are missing their best pro prospect in safety Jordan Whitehead due to suspension, so, unfortunately, we won’t get to see him in this game. In the secondary, keep an eye on cornerback Avonte Maddox. Maddox is an undersized cover man who has been a starter since midway through his freshman season. He was named to the Senior Bowl Watch List this summer. He needs to improve in a number of areas, including his eye discipline and ability to find the ball late downfield, but this will be a good test for the senior corner.

Prediction: Rudolph keeps on rolling to the tune of 325 yards and three touchdowns, and the Cowboys get a win on the road in Pittsburgh. I’d expect to see OSU win by three scores.

2. USC RB Ronald Jones vs. Texas LBs Malik Jefferson/Anthony Wheeler Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles – Saturday 8:30 p.m. – FOX

Ronald Jones is one of the hottest players in college football right now. He has five touchdowns in two games in his first full season as a starter. Jones has NFL size at 6-0, 200 pounds and breakaway speed that lets him leave defenders in the dust. Watching him a year ago, I didn’t always see a back who displayed great vision approaching the line of scrimmage, but watching him last week against Stanford he seemed a bit more confident and comfortable working downhill. This year’s draft looks to be strong at the running back position once again, and I think by the end of the season there will be more than a few Eagles fans excited about Jones.

Lining up on the other side of the field from Jones will be a pair of Texas linebackers who complement each other well. Junior Malik Jefferson is one of the bigger names in the country at his position and is viewed as one of the best Longhorn prospects in recent memory by most media publications. I don’t think the hype matches what I’ve seen on film. Jefferson is certainly a dynamic athlete. He’s got the speed to match Jones and his ability to close from the back side makes him one of the best pure sideline-to-sideline linebackers in the country. He’s also a very good blitzer and one of Jones’ weaknesses happens to be in pass protection, so that could be a battle to watch in this game. Keep an eye on fellow junior linebacker Anthony Wheeler, who is more of a physical, point-of-attack-type of player when compared to Jefferson.

Prediction: Jones carries the ball 22 times for 148 yards and a pair of scores, including one run of 25-plus yards. Jefferson gets his first sack of the season. USC wins by at least 15 points and gives new head coach Tom Herman his first loss against a top-25 team (he’s 6-0 so far as a head coach).

3. Clemson WR Deon Cain vs. Louisville CBs Jaire Alexander/Trumaine Washington Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky – 8 p.m. – ABC

Coming into the year, one of the biggest questions in the entire country was who would step up at the skill positions for the Clemson Tigers. Losing Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, Mike Williams, Artavis Scott, and Jordan Leggett to the NFL Draft, many wondered who would fill the void. The only name that the masses were aware of was Deon Cain, a 6-1, 210-pound speedster who made a bunch of plays as a backup in 2016. Cain needs a lot of refinement as a receiver, but the talent is there for him to be a viable option on the outside in the NFL. Cain is far from the only threat for this Clemson offense at receiver because junior Ray-Ray McCloud, slot man Hunter Renfrow, and Trevion Thompson are all prospects to keep a close eye on in this game.

Junior cornerback Jaire Alexander is one of the best cover corners in the country and would be a huge asset to the Cardinals in this game. The problem is that he’s day to day with a knee injury. His father has said that Alexander won’t play until he’s 100 percent, so it’s unsure that we will see him on Saturday. Alexander could play outside or inside in the NFL. His athleticism, speed, and ball skills make him one of the top prospects at the position if he enters the draft. Across from Alexander is senior corner Trumaine Washington, who projects as a better zone corner than man-to-man cover guy. He struggled against the Tigers a year ago, allowing two touchdowns, so it’s a great opportunity for Washington to get some revenge from last year.

Prediction: Cain catches four passes for 98 yards and a touchdown, but Lamar Jackson leads the Cardinals to victory. Louisville was on the precipice of an upset last year on the road, and they pull it out this time at home.

4. Notre Dame T Mike McGlinchey vs. Boston College DE Harold Landry Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts – 3:30 p.m. – ESPN

Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey is one of the top tackles in the country. Well, he has the potential to be. Consistency has been an issue for the Philadelphia native ever since he slid from the right side to the left, whether it’s been penalties or pressure on the quarterback. I’m probably a bigger fan of McGlinchey than most because I see the physical traits to be a starter on the blind side in the NFL. I think he would have been the first tackle off the board had he come out a year ago because of his combination of size, feet, and pop in his hands. He gave up the sack that helped seal the loss to Georgia last week. He can’t afford to dwell on it, however, because he’s got an even bigger test on Saturday afternoon.

Harold Landry nearly declared for the 2017 draft after setting a school record with 16.5 sacks and leading the country with seven forced fumbles, but the 6-3, 250-pound edge rusher decided to go back for one final year at BC. I haven’t studied him yet this season (the Eagles snuck past Northern Illinois to start the year and got drubbed by Wake Forest last week), but his 2016 film was extremely impressive, enough so that I view him as the top pass rusher in the country at this stage of my process. Landry is pretty quick and sudden with his hands and has a solid overall plan of attack when getting after offensive linemen. I also love that he’s a great finisher in the backfield. If he has you in his sights, you’re not slipping away from his grasp. Landry only has one sack so far, but this is a big week for him because scouts will likely plug this game tape in first when watching him this offseason.

Prediction: Landry had six multi-sack games a year ago, and I think this is his first one of the season. I’m predicting a two-sack performance against McGlinchey and company, with a forced fumble to boot. When it’s all said and done, however, Notre Dame leaves with a W. That being said, it’ll be much closer than people think, I think it’ll be a victory by a touchdown or less.

5. Mississippi State LT Martinas Rankin vs. LSU DE Arden Key Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi – 7 p.m. – ESPN

I previewed Mississippi State left tackle Martinas Rankin last week, and he’s got an even bigger matchup this Saturday. Rankin made headlines last winter when he told reporters that he received a second-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Committee. At 6-5, 302 pounds, he has the frame that teams want at tackle, as well as hand strength and foot quickness. I think there’s definitely something there to work with. I think he has a ways to go before being relied on as a starter at the NFL level (based off last year’s tape). He’s not overly powerful in the run game and there are areas where he needs to continue refining his technique. A strong performance against Key would go a long way toward proving me wrong.

Arden Key missed the first two weeks of the year with a shoulder injury that some reports say have bothered him through most of the offseason. A lean, explosive edge rusher built in the mold of former LSU Tiger Barkevious Mingo or Georgia Bulldog Leonard Floyd, Key has a freakish first step and closing speed that will make your jaw drop. He’s not polished as a pass rusher right now, and head coach Ed Orgeron said he had to knock some of the rust off in practice this week, but his physical gifts are undeniable. College football is better when this guy is on the field.

Prediction: Key posted a modest five tackles with two sacks and a forced fumble against Rankin a year ago in this game, and I’ll expect a somewhat similar performance this week in his return to the field. LSU snuck away with a three-point win a year ago, and this year I think they win by two, with Key posting three tackles and a sack in the near-upset.

Draft Buzz

While I like Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey as a prospect, I LOVE the guy lined up next to him in left guard Quenton Nelson. The junior blocker is tough, smart, athletic, and pretty sound technically. He tries to steal your soul if you get in his way and is one of the most ferocious blockers I’ve evaluated in recent years. I haven’t studied this year’s film yet, but I saw this clip on Twitter and couldn’t help but smile. This kid is the total package at guard and looks to me like a first-round talent at the guard position.

Small-School Spotlight

I’m admittedly late to this guy’s bandwagon because Draft Twitter has been all over Richie James from Middle Tennessee State. I didn’t get a chance to watch him until recently, but I like everything about this kid (outside of his size at 5-9, 175 pounds). A spitting image of Washington Redskins slot man Jamison Crowder, James is a plus route runner, is quick and sudden out of breaks, reliable at the catch point, and aggressive as a blocker and after the catch. He projects extremely well to the slot in the NFL, and his abilities as a punt returner only add to his value. He’s one of the best pure route runners in this class, and those guys always sit well with me. Consider me as being a member of the junior’s fan club as he continues to rip apart Conference USA.

Philly Connection

Eagles fans could get their first regular-season look at rookie defensive tackle Elijah Qualls this week with Destiny Vaeao being out of the lineup. I was a big fan of Qualls during the draft process this spring, and he fell a lot further than I anticipated. His linemate for the Huskies last year is getting considerably more pub at this point in the process – Vita Vea. The nose tackle from Washington reminds me a bit of former Kansas City first-round pick Dontari Poe because of his size, strength, and light feet. An outstanding run defender who uses his hands really well, I think Vea has scheme versatility. He isn’t a great pass rusher at this point, but I think he has the ability to turn into a really strong player up front who should last in the NFL for a long time.

Game Ball

I mentioned the questions that analysts had about the Clemson offense going into the year, but the only question on defense was if the defensive line was the absolute best in the country, or just number two behind Ohio State. The leader of that group is junior Christian Wilkins, a defensive end a year ago despite weighing over 300 pounds. Wilkins is getting a bit more national recognition as a potential top-10 pick now that he’s back at his more natural position of defensive tackle (he slid outside due to injuries at end in 2016). He put up 10 tackles, two sacks, and 2.5 tackles for loss a week ago against Auburn, making him more than well deserving of this week’s game ball. Now let’s see if he can follow that up against Lamar Jackson and Louisville.

Fran Duffy is the producer of “Eagles Game Plan” which can be seen on Saturdays during the season. Be sure to also check out the “Eagle Eye In The Sky” podcast on the Philadelphia Eagles podcast channel on iTunes. Prior to joining the Eagles in 2011, Duffy was the head video coordinator for the Temple University Football team under former head coach Al Golden. In that role, he spent thousands of hours shooting, logging and assisting with the breakdown of the All-22 film from the team’s games, practices and opponents.

The post Lamar Jackson, Louisville Will Stun Defending Champions appeared first on Daily Star Sports.

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footballleague0 · 7 years ago

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Lamar Jackson, Louisville Will Stun Defending Champions

Five Matchups To Watch

1. Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph vs. Pittsburgh Heinz Field, Pittsburgh- Noon – ESPN

Prediction: Rudolph keeps on rolling to the tune of 325 yards and three touchdowns, and the Cowboys get a win on the road in Pittsburgh. I’d expect to see OSU win by three scores.

2. USC RB Ronald Jones vs. Texas LBs Malik Jefferson/Anthony Wheeler Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles – Saturday 8:30 p.m. – FOX

3. Clemson WR Deon Cain vs. Louisville CBs Jaire Alexander/Trumaine Washington Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky – 8 p.m. – ABC

4. Notre Dame T Mike McGlinchey vs. Boston College DE Harold Landry Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts – 3:30 p.m. – ESPN

5. Mississippi State LT Martinas Rankin vs. LSU DE Arden Key Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi – 7 p.m. – ESPN

Draft Buzz

Small-School Spotlight

Philly Connection

Game Ball

The post Lamar Jackson, Louisville Will Stun Defending Champions appeared first on Daily Star Sports.

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racingtoaredlight · 7 years ago

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The official RTARL 2017 college football preview issue, vol. 11: SEC

youtube

If you were trying to guess what song would close this exercise out you would probably guess this one, right? Welp, Lead Belly has taken us as far as he’s going to take us. Games start being played and watched tomorrow so get ready to watch me waste huge chunks of my life for posts that no more than 50 people will ever read.

If you missed the previous entries in this series go here: preview of previews, CUSA, Sun Belt, FBS Independents, MAC, MWC, AAC, Big XII, B1G, Pac 12, ACC.

All that matters in this conference is Alabama. There are other teams that should be good but the only real bragging rights for the SEC right now are rapped up in ‘Bama’s unprecedented streak of domination. It’s an odd bit of business. 10 consecutive seasons as the AP #1 team, already 3 more than anybody else (throws up U) is nuts. Maybe it never ends. If you take Bama away the SEC is still the best conference over that time frame by a pretty wide margin but that wouldn’t be the case going forward.

EAST DIVISION

FLORIDA

I like the idea of Florida winning the East for the third straight year without ever being particularly good. That’s really all I’m going for with this.

GEORGIA

Lots and lots and lots of talent but I’m not sold on Kirby Smart being a good coach. I will not be until he turns the swarm of 5-star running backs and should be superstar QB into at least an East Division title. Probably not even then.

KENTUCKY

This isn’t a vote of confidence if you’re inclined to rooting for UK football. Mark Stoops has slowly built Kentucky into a less than laughably bad team and that’s commendable. Can they keep taking steps forward? Maybe. The recruiting is better than it’s ever been and they’re going against a weak field in the East but the flip side of that is that the recruiting isn’t very good it’s just better than it’s ever been and I’m really just waiting for some kind of epic collapse from Butch Jones so I’m putting UK here.

TENNESSEE

I’ve noticed that I place teams based more on what I think of their coaches than what I think of their roster talent. I think Butch Jones sucks but I don’t think he’s Will Muschamp bad. UT lost a ton of good players from last year when they weren’t really very good. The signing classes have been pretty good the last few years but it seems like the transferring out of UT classes continue to be really strong, too.

MISSOURI

Nobody cares.

SOUTH CAROLINA

I might be giving Coach Boom too much credit here, if anything. South Carolina might really be able to take a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits and find a way to be worse than Vandy.

VANDERBILT

Derek Mason might have turned Vandy around last year or he might have coached a shitty team to two big wins over two completely checked out teams. My money is on the latter, if anything. This can be one of Vandy’s best teams ever and still finish with 5 wins. Lots and lots of seniors have some pubs projecting a breakthrough campaign for the Commodores but if all of those seniors are demonstrably worse than the freshmen at other programs in the conference I’m not sure what the big deal is.

WEST DIVISION

ALABAMA

The elephant in the room for every discussion about college football, Bama has been as good over the last ten years as Bama fans think they were in the 100 years before that. What Nick Saban has done in Tuscaloosa is absolutely ridiculous and it’s getting really hard to make a convincing argument against him as the greatest college coach of all time. Every single year they send 10-20 guys to the NFL and reload with 10-20 freshmen who might be even better. Is the loss of Lane Kiffin going to hurt the offense? Maybe but probably not. This is more of the same for the Tide and it’ll be just short of breathtaking to see them miss the playoffs any time soon.

MISSISSIPPI STATE

Best QB in the conference + coach who I hate but is better than I’ll ever give him credit for = maybe it’s gonna be like 2014 again for the Bulldogs. Thanks to prodding from GGR I ended up loving Dak Prescott during his senior season (after the hype from his junior year) and now I think Nick Fitzgerald can be close to the same type of player.

AUBURN

Jarrett Stidham is getting compared to Cam Newton and Nick Marshall because he’s a transfer QB at Auburn but I don’t have the highest hopes for him. That probably has more to do with Baylor than any assessment of him specifically as a player. Gus Malzahn can probably figure out some pretty good ways to get the most out of him.

LSU

I love Eddie O but I’m not sold on him as a long term answer at head coach, even in Louisiana where you might find some kids who can actually understand him when he talks. Still, LSU is perennially loaded with great athletes and the do have potentially the best offensive player in the country for 2017. That would be enough to win most conferences or at least most divisions in CFB but here we are.

ARKANSAS

The SEC West is great because the fifth best team in the division should still be able to eke out a bowl invite. Devwah Whaley gets an unfortunately earned opportunity to compete with Derrius Guice for the SEC rushing title this year but I can’t put a ton of faith in Bret Beilema.

TEXAS A&M

A&M fans are the only people on the planet that expect this to be an elite program. Has Kevin Sumlin actually underperformed as a head coach or is aTm just not really all that great of a place for a program to compete in the SEC? Sumlin is a good coach who is probably about the right level for what the Aggies should expect. He’ll be fired before the end of November.

THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI, OXFORD

Everything about this school and this program and this team is trash. It’s advertised right there in the nickname for the school and the mascot for the teams. The NCAA can’t really kill teams anymore but putting this program back in its normal historical place is pretty close to killing them.

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CHAMPION: Alabama

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Da’Shawn Hand, DL, Alabama

WATCHABILITY ADVICE: Most SEC games bore the hell out of me but there’s always some interest just knowing how much talent there is up and down some of these rosters. LSU might have the offensive and defensive players of the year for the conference and still finish 4th in their division. If you’ve ever watched college football before you’ve got some idea of what you’re getting into with an SEC game. As a more or less impartial observer I will say that the Iron Bowl is and always has been the best college football rivalry. Don’t @ me.

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auburnfamilynews · 7 years ago

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Quarterback Drew Lock leads an offense that returns 10 starters. (AP Photo/L.G Patterson.)

War Eagle, everybody! It’s time now for another Auburn road game preview! On September 23rd Auburn travels to Columbia, Missouri to take on the Tigers on their home field at Memorial Stadium. It’s an important game for both teams, as both hope to progress through September with winning records. A loss in this game could spell disaster for either team.

The Auburn Tigers will have opened the season with Georgia Southern, then traveled to Clemson. Auburn will then enjoy an early homecoming game against Mercer, before traveling to Missouri. The homestanding Missouri Tigers have an opener with Missouri State, then they host South Carolina in a primetime SEC East matchup. The next week, Missouri hosts Purdue, an important non-conference game. Mizzou doesn’t have a game early with the clout of Clemson, but back to back games against a Will Muschamp-led USC defense and a Big Ten team hoping to improve will test Missouri’s team early.

When Missouri’s offense was on last season, they could move it on anybody, and this team returns 10 starters on offense. Junior quarterback Drew Lock was thrown into the fire a couple of seasons ago, and has had his struggles. Lost in last season’s 4-8 dumpster fire is the fact that Lock threw 23 touchdown passes vs. just 10 interceptions. This season, with an intact offensive line and most of his targets back, hopes are high in Columbia. Offensive coordinator Josh Heuple’s spread attack will be tough to defend, for the visiting Auburn Tigers.

While Missouri’s offense was decent last season, the defense had serious struggles. Missouri gave up almost 479 yards per game, and 31.5 points per game. With 3 potential starters on the defensive line missing this year’s spring game rehabbing injuries, it’s a worrisome situation heading into the 2017 season. That said, the starting bunch in this year’s spring game played pretty well, after allowing a slash and burn early touchdown drive in the game. The offense did not score on them again, after a pretty awful first series.

Missouri had some good special teams moments last season, particularly with the punting unit. Kickoffs usually resulted in touchbacks, but when the team allowed a return, it was usually for a chunk of yardage. Placekicking was not as good, as Missouri missed half of its field goal attempts, and 4 extra point tries.

Auburn defensive line vs. Missouri offensive line: Auburn brings a big, athletic defensive line back this season. Likely starters at tackle are junior Dontavius Russell and sophomore Derrick Brown. Sophomore strong-side end Marlon Davidson was a beast on A-Day. The buck side will likely be manned by a combination of junior Jeffery Holland and senior transfer Paul James III. Auburn has a good bit of depth behind the starters, as well. The black and gold Tigers did some shuffling on the offensive line this spring, but the starting bunch seems pretty set. From left to right, this unit will probably feature senior Tyler Howell, junior Kevin Pendleton, senior Alec Abelin, senior Adam Ploudre, and junior Paul Adams. This bunch will be formidable. The Mizzou offense last season averaged right at 500 yards per game, and allowed just 14 sacks. Advantage: Even.

Auburn linebackers vs. Missouri backs: The Auburn Tigers have a good cross-trained quartet of upper echelon SEC-caliber linebackers. Junior Deshaun Davis, senior Tre’ Williams, junior Darrell Williams and junior Montravious Atkinson can play all three positions, and we might see any combination of these players out on the field at a given time. Missouri is known as a spread-passing team, but don’t pass on sophomore running back Damarea Crockett. Last season, Crockett piled up 1062 yards, while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Senior Ish Witter proved to be capable relief as well, with 750 rushing yards. Advantage: Even.

Auburn corners vs. Missouri receivers: Auburn has a fairly good combination of starting corners, in junior Carlton Davis and sophomore Javaris Davis. The Tigers are hoping that Jamel Dean will be healthy this fall, as he is one of the fastest players on the team. Sophomore Jeremiah Dinson could move over from nickelback, if needed. For Missouri, senior J’Mon Moore is the SEC’s only returning 1000-yard receiver, and he’ll be joined by sophomore Dimetrios Mason, who caught 47 balls last season. Junior Emanuel Hall provides quality depth. Advantage: Even.

Auburn safeties vs. Missouri secondary receivers and quarterback: Auburn’s starting unit features seniors Tray Matthews and Stephen Roberts at safety, and sophomore Jeremiah Dinson at nickel back. There’s not much depth here, beyond senior Nick Ruffin, who’ll probably see as much playing time as the starters. The Tigers are solid here, as long as no one gets hurt. Auburn had trouble defending secondary receivers at times last season, and Missouri likes to throw to them. Sophomore slot receivers Jonathan Johnson and Richaud Floyd were popular targets in this year’s Missouri spring game. If there is a knock on Missouri starting quarterback Drew Lock, it might be his 54.6 percent completion percentage from last season. Lock is probably the most experienced signal-caller returning in the SEC East this year, and he’ll likely be much improved. Advantage: Even.

Punting: Sophomore Ian Shannon will likely get the nod as Auburn’s starting punter, after a couple of years of waiting in the wings. Shannon has looked good on A-Day a year ago, in warmups. The Tigers gave up only 19 punt return yards last season, on 6 punts, for a stifling 3.2 yards per return. The Tigers are still auditioning for the punt returner job. It’s thought that senior Stephen Roberts has the inside track, after returning 6 punts last season for 100 yards. Missouri punted well last season, with returning junior Corey Fatony averaging 43.8 yards per punt. Missouri gave up only 5.5 yards per return. Sophomore return man Jonathan Johnson averaged 14 yards per return for Missouri. Advantage: Missouri.

Kickoffs: Daniel Carlson was very good kicking off last season, notching 57 touchbacks on 72 kickoffs. When Auburn did allow returns, opponents averaged only 18.0 yards per return. Junior Kerryon Johnson is Auburn’s most experienced return man returning, and he averaged 22.2 yards per return last season. Sophomore kickoff man Tucker McCann booted 42 touchbacks on 64 kickoffs last season for Missouri. Unfortunately, the team gave up 25.7 yards per return, on the few kicks that were returned. Missouri does not have a return specialist that averaged over 18 yards per return, coming back. Advantage: Auburn.

Place kicking: Auburn sophomore Daniel Carlson is the man for Auburn. Carlson was 28 of 32 on field goals, and perfect on extra points. One of Carlson’s misses was a block by Vanderbilt. Missouri’s Tucker McCann struggled last season, hitting only 5 of 11 field goal attempts, and 4 extra point misses. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn offensive line vs. Missouri defensive line: It’s still not settled who’ll start for Auburn on the line, although the starters looked pretty good on A-Day. It seems the tackle spots are set, with seniors Darius James and Braden Smith. Senior Austin Golson will likely start at center, although Auburn is bringing in senior transfer center Casey Dunn from Jax State. If Dunn starts, Golson could move to guard. Also transferring in this fall is former Florida State starting guard Wilson Bell. Bell is expected to start at one of the guard spots. If Dunn does not beat Golson out, the other likely starting guard would be sophomore Mike Horton. Missouri took a beating here, last season, and they were still banged up for the spring game. All injured players should be well, by fall camp. Missouri also has recruited well on the line, the past couple of seasons, and should have some depth to play with, here. My guess as to starters would be juniors Rashad Brandon and Terry Beckner at tackles, and senior Marcell Frazier and junior Nate Howard on the ends. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn backs vs. Missouri linebackers: Auburn features junior H-back Chandler Cox blowing open holes. Running behind the big H-back will be massive junior Kamryn Pettway, and the shifty junior Kerryon Johnson in reserve. Missouri has veterans returning in the linebacking corps, but it has to be concerning that the defense gave up over 5.2 yards per rush last season. Penciled in as starters are juniors Terez Hall and Kaleb Prewitt on the outside, and senior Eric Beisal in the middle. Prewitt is a transfer from Kansas State, and is quite versatile, able to run with speedy slot receivers. This allows Missouri to play basically nickel defense without substituting.

Auburn receivers vs. Missouri corners: At the end of spring, it looked like Auburn’s two starting outside guys were sophomore Nate Craig-Myers and sophomore Darius Slayton. Both guys can fly, have good height, and great hands. Redshirt freshman Marquis McClain had a great A-Day, and is someone to watch out for on the outside, as well. Cornerback was an issue for Missouri, last season. Sophomore DeMarkus Acy showed flashes last season, and is a good-sized specimen who should have a break-out year this season. On the other side, it was still a battle this spring between senior Logan Cheadle and sophomore Christian Holmes. Talk is that incoming freshmen will have a chance to contribute. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn secondary receivers and quarterback vs. Missouri safeties: Auburn has potential threats here, starting with wickedly fast junior slot receiver Will Hastings. Sophomore Eli Stove can also fly. Tight ends Jalen Harris and Sal Cannella are expected to be a big part of the passing game as well. Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham is likely the starter in the opener. In 6 games as a freshman at Baylor, Stidham was electric. That trend continued during A-Day this spring, as Stidham was deadly accurate, and showed great mobility. Missouri has both speed and tackling ability at safety, although situational substitution will be likely, depending upon which asset is needed on any given down. Starters this spring were senior Anthony Sherrils and junior Cam Hilton. Hilton had to have shoulder surgery late this spring. Look for sophomore Ronnell Perkins to earn playing time this fall. Advantage: Auburn.

The pressure is on Auburn, in this game. Drop this one, and the Auburn Tigers then face both Mississippi teams with the season on the line in subsequent weeks. A loss to Missouri and either Mississippi team would be fatal to Auburn’s SEC West title aspirations.

Missouri will move the ball, and they’ll do it with a rapid pace. Whether the defense can stop anyone is still an open question. Last season, this defense gave up 42 to LSU, 40 to Florida, 51 to Middle Tennessee, 35 to Kentucky, 31 to South Carolina and 63 to Tennessee. Ouch.

Prediction: It’s a scoring match in Columbia, and Auburn gets a few stops. Auburn escapes with a win, 45-34.

The post A Challenge in Columbia. (previewing Auburn vs. Missouri football.) appeared first on Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog.

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brajeshupadhyay · 4 years ago

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What was the situation like when the league was suspended on 13 March? Tense at best, volatile at worst. Supporters were protesting against an increasingly unpopular board and another season at the London Stadium had descended into a relegation battle. Yet there were flashes of positivity in the weeks before lockdown. Jarrod Bowen and Tomas Soucek had impressed after joining in January and there were signs that David Moyes, who replaced Manuel Pellegrini in December after a torrid run of form, was making his presence felt. Admittedly the improvement came out of the blue. The mood was low after a calamitous 3-3 home draw with Brighton on 1 February but Moyes found a better balance as the weeks progressed and his side crept out of the bottom three thanks to a 3-1 win over Southampton at the end of the month. Bowen scored his first goal for the club, Sébastien Haller and Michail Antonio dazzled up front and West Ham looked dangerous in their last league outing, even though it ended in an unfortunate 1-0 defeat at Arsenal. What about now? Nervy given that 16th-placed West Ham are only above Watford and Bournemouth on goal difference and were concerned about the financial consequences of relegation even in pre-pandemic times. Staying in the top flight is vital after the move to the London Stadium and Moyes could have done without Jeremy Ngakia, who did well at right-back after being handed his debut in January, deciding to leave on a free at the end of the month. The 19-year-old is out of contract on 30 June and is not even considering a short-term extension, infuriating Moyes. “We are really surprised and disappointed that Jeremy is not going to stay at West Ham,” the manager said last week. Still, at least Jack Wilshere is fit after recovering from a hernia operation. Wilshere has struggled with injuries since joining West Ham in 2018 and the former Arsenal and England midfielder, who has a year left on his deal, has been handed a chance to remind Moyes of his worth thanks to the unexpected break. The Fiver: sign up and get our daily football email. What needs to be done for a successful end to the season? Moyes is focused on improving his side’s defensive shape. He wants clean sheets and needs a settled back four. Ryan Fredericks needs to knuckle down at right-back, while Angelo Ogbonna and Issa Diop must ensure there are no costly lapses of concentration in central defence. West Ham have been too open this season and there will be pressure on Declan Rice to shield the back four – a job made easier by the arrival of Soucek. There is talent in this squad and there are attacking options. Bowen is dangerous cutting in from the left, Pablo Fornals is improving and defenders will not enjoy playing against the physicality of Haller and Antonio. Have the players and staff behaved during lockdown? Moyes could have done without Rice having a kickabout with Chelsea’s Mason Mount on 15 March. Any unsung/community heroes? Moyes spent part of lockdown delivering fruit and vegetables for his local food shop. “There was a thing up in the window that said drivers needed,” the Scot said in April. “I volunteered to do it as my wife was away at the time and I was on my own. So I became a fruit and veg driver.” Key player in the run-in? Antonio only has two goals this season but West Ham are never quite as threatening without his pace and strength. The attack lacked oomph when the forward was out for three months after a hamstring operation in August. The problem is that his hamstrings are very unreliable. Michail Antonio in action in a friendly against Crystal Palace on 13 June. Photograph: Arfa Griffiths/West Ham United FC/Getty Images End-of-season-prediction The margins remain fine but West Ham should have enough talent to stay up. While they still have to face Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Wolves, their rivals have tougher run-ins. Home games against Burnley, Watford and Aston Villa are likely to be pivotal. Remaining fixtures (all times BST): Sat 20 June Wolves (h) – 5.30pm, Sky Sports Tues 23 June Tottenham (a) – 8.15pm, Sky Sports Weds 1 July Chelsea (h) – 8.15pm, Sky Sports TBC Newcastle (a), Burnley (h), Norwich (a), Watford (h), Manchester United (a), Aston Villa (h) The post Premier League restart preview No 19: West Ham | Football appeared first on Sansaar Times.

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pavspatch · 8 years ago

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Horsfall set for surprise return

Weekend Previews

DEFENDER Fraser Horsfall could make a surprise return for STALYBRIDGE CELTIC when they visit fellow strugglers Gainsborough Trinity for a six-point relegation clash in National League North tomorrow (Saturday).

The Huddersfield Town loanee was expected to be out for up to a month after picking up an ankle injury in the win over Halifax Town two weeks ago, but he may feature in a back line that kept its first Bower Fold clean sheet in 15 league games.

New boy Chris Baguley could make his first start in midfield as Bridge look to narrow the nine-point gap on Bradford Park Avenue at the bottom of the table.

Celtic face a spell of four games in nine days with a trip to Crewe Alexandra in the Cheshire Senior Cup on Tuesday, followed by a visit from Telford United before their crunch derby at the Tameside Stadium a week on Monday (January 30).

The shake-up John Flanagan unveiled at CURZON ASHTON on Monday has continued throughout the week.

Immediately after the 1-1 draw with Gloucester City, the Nash boss held meetings with Simon Woodford and Salford City striker Matt Warburton. Woodford was released, while it was believed Curzon’s hopes of signing Warburton had been dashed by his wage demands.

If this was true, the problems must have been resolved the following day. Warburton joined Curzon in midweek and the club are relying on him to take over the scoring mantle relinquished by Adam Morgan when he moved to Halifax just before Christmas.

Woodford, brother of Nash chief executive Natalie Atkinson, has joined Glossop who beat Ashton United to his signature. Fellow defender Andy Watson, who has recently regained fitness after a long injury lay-off, has moved to FC United.

Flanagan said: “I would like to thank both players for their major contribution to Curzon Ashton’s progress over the last five years. They are both still desperate to play on a regular basis and unfortunately I was unable to guarantee that.”

Tomorrow the Nash are home to seemingly invincible table-toppers Fylde.

In the Evo-stik NPL permit division, ASHTON UNITED face Halesowen at Hurst Cross on the back of a three-game winning run, their best spell of the season so far.

Fans were generally in agreement that the Robins’ second-half performance against Northwich Victoria in the Integro Cup on Tuesday was their most impressive of the campaign and Jody Banim wouldn’t disagree.

“Will (Haining) and I let loose on the lads a bit at half time and we got the response we needed. Vics had come at us like a train in the first few minutes but then they started to run out of steam. We ended up creating so many chances we could have scored seven or eight,” said the co-boss.

Striker Nico Collins was in the squad and retains his place tomorrow. However, Curzon have recalled central defender Danny Shaw.

Banim added: “It’s a massive blow to lose Danny and I have to say I’m a bit disappointed about it because when we signed him, Curzon said they wouldn’t just take him back. Just when it looked like we were getting a squad together to push on it’s been ripped apart again. It’s very frustrating but I suppose that’s the way it goes at this level.”

In the first division north, Bolton winger Ryan White has returned to HYDE UNITED who take on Prescot Cables at Ewen Fields. Recent signings Lawrence Hunter, Paddy Miller and Chris Sutherland could all make their home debuts, and hotshot striker Matt Beadle is fit again.

Midfielder Laurie Bell is unlikely to play as he is dual registered with Macclesfield Town and has been turning out for them. After several weeks on the injury list, striker Ayrton Bevins could get a place on the bench.

The Tigers have announced they will host Altrincham in the Cheshire Senior Cup on Tuesday, February 14.

Jordan Bove, Danny Byrnes and Darrhyl Mason could all be back for MOSSLEY at Ossett Albion. Returning striker Dougie Carroll has joined Wythenshawe Town to get some match practice.

New signing Simon Woodford is set to feature for GLOSSOP NORTH END who are home to Tadcaster Albion. Eddie Moran and Nicky Platt remain injured.

DROYLSDEN should be confident of extending their unbeaten start to 2017 as their visitors tomorrow are bottom of the table Burscough. Defender Clayton McDonald misses out with a quad strain and Adam Farrell has a damaged hamstring. Shaq Clarke and Phil Clarke are long-term absentees.

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eastbridge-sb · 5 years ago

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Champions League Match Previews – 23rd October Wednesday

Ajax vs Chelsea

I’m all aboard the goals bus in Amsterdam on Wednesday night as Chelsea face off against last years semi-finalists Ajax. It promises to be an entertaining and watchable affair between two attack-minded teams and it looks difficult to pick a winner but there’s certainly potential for goals galore.

Prior to this weekend, Chelsea have seen an average of 4.08 goals per game over all competitions this season and the fresh, youthful approach taken by Frank Lampard has the Blues’ faithful buzzing with anticipation before every game. It’s been a long time coming but they’re now utilising their established academy and not only is that benefiting them in the short term it also enhances the value of home-grown players every game.

Tammy Abraham has made the step up and proven he can do it for an established European side, his goal in Lille last time out will give him a wealth of confidence going into this game. Mason Mount is showing what he’s all about too but the Blues’ do have players with vast experience in this competition with the likes of Cesar Azpilicueta, Jorginho and Pedro, it’s a nod-inducing squad mix.

This is another very intriguing group with all four sides having a good shout of progression. Ajax top the tree at the minute though after a slightly fortunate win at home to Lille followed by an impressive 3-0 victory at the Mestella against Valencia, but again I think the scoreline flattered De Godenzonen. Despite scoring 6 goals and conceding 0, Ajax have actually lost the expected goals battle in both games which is a strange thing to find out. I’m not going to be critical of them going forward though because they know they can win games with the individual quality they have in their ranks. Hakim Ziyech spanked one in against Los Che that had a 0.3% chance of going in, it once again highlights the Moroccan wingers’ sublime quality.

I do think they will concede here though, possibly a couple of goals too. The Dutch champions have given up at least 2 xG in both their games and it’s not sustainable that they’ll keep clean sheets at this rate, they have a team that are scoring plenty visiting them too so maybe the Blues could be a touch of value at 3.300.

However, I’m much more inclined to take a goals based approach and I’ll snap up the 1.850 on over 2.75 goals. Both sides have serious quality in the final third and the respective manager’s ethos’ lend themselves to an end-to-end fixture.

Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.850

Lille vs Valencia

We will stay in group H for the next selection and I’ll keep faith with Christophe Galtier’s Lille side to pick up a result as they welcome Valencia to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.

As previously mentioned, Lille were unfortunate to leave Amsterdam with a 3-0 defeat against their name because they actually won the expected goals battle in that clash. After following that up with a rare home defeat to Chelsea, Les Dogues will be eager to get a win on the board on Wednesday night, you’d feel they have to if they’re to have any chance of progression to the knockout stages.

At their Flanders base they do their best work. This season in Ligue 1 they’re unbeaten on their own patch (W4, D1) and that follows on from an excellent home campaign last season where they won ¾ of their matches as the ended as runners up to eventual champions PSG. It was an impressive effort and even though star man Nicolas Pepe left, the savvy recruitment drive at the club had the player lined up to replace him in Nigerian Victor Omishen.

Valencia have been a bit of a joke club this season. Fans fury at chief investor Peter Lim has been rife and the hierarchy haven’t coped with the anger in a responsible or professional manner. Relationships between supporters and owner were already fractured but the controversial sacking of well-liked manager Marcelino was seen as the final straw. Fans recently protested in a home game against Leganes and there’s a sour mood around the place at the moment.

Inconsistency has been a key trait of Los Che this season and they’ve failed to record back-to-back wins all season long. They did win their last home to Alaves but that’s not too much of a test and the omens aren’t good given their record off the back of wins. I do think their defence is gettable and Ajax showed them up a bit last time out.

There’s a greater onus on Lille to get the win here and I’m surprised they’re as big as 2.800 to get the three points, I’d actually have them as slight favourites in all honesty. That generous price brings in the asian handicap angle and I’ll certainly take the 1.740 on Lille with a +0.25 start. This would see us profit if Les Dogues avoid defeat with a half profit if it ends all square and a full win if they run out victorious. The money is coming for this every day and if it drops below 1.700 i’d reccomend taking the 2.000 on the French side off a scratch +0 start.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Lille +0.25 at 1.740

Benfica vs Lyon

Delving into group G and I’m backing pointless Benfica to finally get their first European points on the board as they welcome an out of sorts Lyon to the Estadio De La Luz on Wednesday night.

Lyon have been one of the most underwhelming sides in Europe so far this season. They started like a house on fire with back-to-back comfortable wins over Monaco and Angers where they scored 9 and didn’t concede, since then they’ve failed to win in Ligue 1. They’re now winless in 8 domestically and in the midst of that run outspoken chairman Jean Michel-Aulas sacked the recently appointed manager Sylvinho. It was a late defeat to fierce rivals Saint-Etienne that was the final nail in the coffin for the former Barcelona player.

Relationships between former manager Bruno Genesio, the board and the supporters became strained, not too dissimilar to what has happened a few years prior at divisional rivals Marseille. Aulas then took a fresh approach appointed club legend Juninho as technical director, a surprise to many as Aulas does like to get involved in a more holistic approach to club affairs. It may have backfired, but it’s very early in the season to make such a change and it could lead to a lack of identity, it could unravel into a Manchester United-esque demise.

Last week, Rudi Garcia was appointed as head coach. He is a relatively safe pair of hands after having success in France, namely with Lille but his win record at Marseille was around the same level. He will get them climbing the table again you’d have thought but a disappointing 0-0 home draw to Dijon will not inspire much confidence. They’re not a team you want to side with at the moment. Having said that they’ve taken 4 points from their opening two games in this competition with a surprise win at Leipzig coming after a 1-1 draw with Zenit in what looks a seriously tight group.

A win is certainly more pressing for Benfica after they’ve lost their openers to Leipzig and away to Zenit. Gaffer Luis Filipe Vieira will be glad they play hosts here though, their record at the ground that hosted the 2014 final is superb on the whole. In their last 16 league games they’ve won 14, drawn 1 and lost 1, scoring a whopping 68 goals in that time. It’s one of their most presentable chances to get a win and they need it more than the out of form visitors.

Benfica are rightful favourites at 2.150 and ultimately a draw will be a disappointment, I’m banking on their penchant for scoring goals at home to bring them the victory against a Les Gones side that have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 in all competitions.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Benfica -0.50 at 2.150

Preview by: TomLove_18

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