#the Biden administration wasn’t good the last 4 years and they’re still going to be pulling the strings for the next 4 years if Kamala wins

[dailyautophagy]

someone tell Kamala that she’ll never be unburdened by what has been because sleeping with a married dude twice your age is a scarlet letter you don’t get to take off

[deansmom]

For the people who keep saying “it’s not like it’s gotten better in the last 4 years” you’re forgetting that Congress changed hands because we lost seats in 2022, and that’s when shit started well and truly going down hill (I know it wasn’t going well, but it went from a slow descent to a sharp drop). I know it’s scraping the bottom of the barrel, I know the bar is in hell, but I don’t think most of the people saying this are thinking about how much worse of a place we could be in right now. When half the country is white nationalists and some of the highest ranking congress members are proud nationalists, it’s going to take a hell of a lot more than 4 years and one president to accomplish what we want.

We’re too far down the track to fascism to turn around now, okay? We’re already on our way there. That clip of Biden from the other day is fucking vile and it made my stomach turn, but genoc*de Joe or whatever you guys are calling him now is at least slowing the fucking train down a little bit. When Bernie Sanders and Katie Porter are saying the same thing as his office, you should take that as the canary in the coal mine that it is.

A good chunk of the money is for Palestinian refugees and Ukraine, okay? That doesn’t make up for a damn thing or a single fucking missile that we’ve fired, but it’s important information to have. This situation fucking sucks. The options fucking suck. But unless a GENUINELY viable candidate shows up between now and the election, he is still the option that will do the majority of the country the least harm.

The next time you think a trumper has a point, the next time one of them says something vaguely pro Palestine or criticizes the way the Biden administration is handling this, I want you to remember that these people planned overturning roe v Wade before the 2016 election. They are playing the long game. They know how we work, they know how we think, and they know how to turn public opinion against somebody. They want us to believe that they’re dumb, but they are smart and they are good at organizing.

Look at Florida. Look at Tennessee. Look at Texas. Look at every news story of every ridiculous, horrifying law that has been proposed or passed since 2016, because that is their plan for the country. Every law that they’ve proposed that threatened a marginalized group? It’s a set up for it to be brought before the Supreme Court. It’s exactly how Roe v Wade got overturned.

I don’t have any good answers for anyone. Nothing about this is good. But I am fucking begging you to take half a step back and look at the big picture & remember the last ten years & to not fucking fall for it because they are playing y’all like a fiddle.

sorry but i want to hit every american talking about not wanting to vote democrat anymore with hammers. lol

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

13 Keys to the White House: 2024

Historian Allan Lichtman has produced an astonishingly accurate system for predicting presidential elections; although first implemented in 1984, going backwards it correctly accounts for every election since 1860, with the only hiccup coming from the hotly contested 2000 election. He predicted Gore would win, and he wasn’t entirely wrong, there was just some brotherly nepotism and Supreme Court fuckery. Anyway, his system posits 13 yes or no scenarios about the state of the union; if at least 8 are true then the incumbent party wins another term, less than 8 and the challenging party wins. Simple.

It’s pretty early in Biden’s term to tell for sure, but we can make some soft predictions that we can refine over the next few years before solidifying in 2023 or 2024.

Midterm gains: after the midterms, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than they did in the previous midterms. Almost certainly false. 2022 will see new districts drawn by the predominantly Republican statehouses, giving them an immediate advantage. Democrats have a razor thin majority as is, it’s never been this close to tied before, I can’t see them holding on when you take into account new census data and partisan gerrymandering.

No primary contest: is there no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Almost certainly true. Like him or hate him, Democrats are stuck with Biden. There hasn’t been a serious primary challenge in either major party since Reagan tried to take on Ford in 1976.

Incumbent seeking re-election: the incumbent candidate is the president. Again almost certainly true. There was an unspoken agreement that Biden would only run for one term, considering the fact that he’ll be 82 at the end of it, but o think he thinks he’s in for the long run now. If he does in office, Harris will become president and run for re-election herself, so the only way this would flip false would be if Biden just decides not to run again. In that case, the #2 might also flip false because I could see a weak senator like Joe Manchin running against Harris to get out of his own impending failure in West Virginia.

No third-party: no significant third party challenger. Too soon to tell, though I’m leaning towards true. The last nationally successful third party candidate was Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996. He didn’t win any states, but he split some states nearly in thirds; Clinton and Bush and Dole all won states with less than 50% of he vote because Perot split the ticket. In 2000 Ralph Nader lost New Hampshire for Al Gore, giving it and the presidency to George W. Bush, and the same thing happened with Jill Stein in 2016 in the Midwest. Spoilers don’t need to be major on the National scale to have significant effects in specific states. Lichtman only flips this one false when a third party candidate wins 10% of the vote, so I’m going with true.

Short-term economy: the economy is not in recession. Probably true, but still too early to tell. We are either in the middle or nearing the end of a covid recession, I can’t see it lasting three more years without recovering at least a little, especially with the $2 trillion stimulus package they just passed. The economy is random, but if you look at a plot of unemployment since the Great Depression you will see that it consistently trends up under Republicans and trends down under Democrats. Trump was the only president is recent history to actually destroy more jobs than he created, so Biden could. It have inherited an easier path to victory. He shouldn’t be able to fuck up when the bar is so low, but I’m not holding out hope.

Long-term economy: real pet capita growth equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Probably true, too soon to be sure. We’re so deep in the hole after Trump that any even remotely upwards tick will count as growth. I can’t see us dipping deeper than 2020 anytime soon, but then again that’s what they said in 2008, so who even knows?

Major policy change: the incumbent administration effects major change in national policy. False, I can call it now with utmost confidence. With Manchin and Sinema protecting the filibuster, Biden will get absolutely nothing substantive done in his first two years. He’ll end up losing one or both houses in the midterms, accomplishing even less in his next two! If he loses the Senate, it’s all over. It’ll be 2016 2.0, no more appointments, no more nominees, complete and utter obstruction until the Republicans take back he presidency and fill all the vacancies themselves.

No social unrest: no sustained social unrest during the term. Too soon to tell, but maybe true. 2020 was an anomaly, a once in a generation thing like 1968, so many crises all compounded together; the pandemic, the George Floyd protests, the wild fires, the hurricanes, utter chaos. I don’t see 2024 being as bad, but don’t quote me on that.

No scandal: incumbent administration is not tainted by scandal. Who knows?!? Biden seems pretty white bread/plain vanilla/mayonnaise, but Republicans insist he’s the most corrupt politician since their own guys (Trump and Nixon; lowering the bar for all their successors). They milked Benghazi for years and found nothing, but still tanked Clinton’s integrity going forward, I’m sure they’ll try to milk whatever BS They can find on Hunter Biden, especially if they retake the House or Senate. Whether any accusations will stick is up in the air, but I could see Republicans impeaching Biden just because they can.

No foreign/military failure: incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign/military affairs. Who knows? Biden’s foreign policy isn’t significantly different than Trump’s, so there’s no telling what could go wrong. The Saudis will keep cutting people’s heads off, North Korea will never disarm itself, Iran will probably arm itself, Afghanistan will drag on forever, and I can smell war brewing in the Caucasus, Venezuela, and Bolivia. The future is as clear as milk.

Foreign policy/military success: incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign/military affairs. Probably not, but too soon to tell. Succeeding is very different from not failing, so 10 and 11 aren’t necessarily linked. You can not fail AND not succeed, they’re not mutually exclusive. I don’t see anything good happening overseas for a very long time. If we pull out of Afghanistan, the power vacuum will pave the way for ISIS 2.0, so our hands are tied there. Our best bet would be to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, but then we’ll just be back to status quo anteTrumpum, zero sum gain.

Charismatic incumbent: the incumbent party nominee is charismatic or a national hero. False, false, a million times false. Biden isn’t even beloved by his entire party, let alone the country; Republicans hate him even more than they ought to just because he wears a blue tie instead of a red one (his policies are so middle-of-the-road inoffensive to them that they shouldn’t have a problem with him, but Trump told them to, so they do). If Biden dies or refuses to run, Harris is even more divisive because she’s a woman and a disingenuous liar (she pretends to be super progressive, but she’s a cop, a Clintonesque moderate through and through). Obama in 2008 was a breath of fresh air which got very stale by 2012; 2008 was lightning in a bottle, and neither Biden nor Harris could ever dream of catching it again. They’re nowhere near as nationally beloved as the Roosevelts or Kennedy or Reagan.

Uncharismatic challenger: the challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. True, true, a million times true. It will almost certainly be Trump again in 2024, and he is even more despised than Biden. Sure, he’s beloved by his own party, but they make up less than half of he country. He never had majority approval and lost the popular vote twice, he’s a loser! If by some miracle he chooses not to run, the Republicans will be running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to appoint a successor. They’ll want one of his kids to run, maybe even his daughter in law who is looking to run for senate in 2022, but they’re tainted by affiliation to the Gonad Lump himself; they’re all the same. Ted Cruz sucks ass, Ron DeSantis might actually have an intellectual disability so I feel bad making fun of that piece of shit bastard, I pray that Rick Scott and Josh Hawley and Matt Gaetz suffer debilitating brain aneurysms on live TV, Nikki Haley is a nobody, and Lauren Boebert and Majorie Taylor Green are too regional to have national appeal (though Green will probably run against Raphael Warnock in 2022, so she will almost certainly be a senator by 2024). There are no nationally beloved politicians on either side of the aisle, so I would expect Republicans to cheat like they tried in 2020 to stop black people in swing states from voting.

So, the tally stands thus:

3 are certainly true

4 are probably true, leaning uncertain

2 are uncertain

1 is probably false, leaning uncertain

3 are certainly false

Democrats need 8 true to win, Republicans need 6 false to win. Right now, Biden had a slight edge because it is historically difficult to defeat an incumbent, Trump just sucked. I don’t see a rematch being significantly different, I suspect Biden would still win the popular vote, but Trump could eke by with the electoral college like he did in 2016, especially now that Republicans are taking over the judiciary in Pennsylvania (they’re changing the rules so that judges are elected in gerrymandered districts instead of statewide races). You saw how hard Republicans fought in 2020, they’re not going to change tactics in 2024, they’re gonna double down and try even harder next time. Fewer polling places, fewer drop boxes, shorter early voting, shorter hours, more stringent ID laws. Their MO is systemic voter suppression because their rhetoric has become too toxic to win on a national level. The majority of Americans vote against them in almost every election, general and midterm, but they continue to rule in the minority.

Something has got to give, this can’t go on forever, eventually the situation is going to boil over, be it in a civil war or a constitutional convention to overhaul the entire country; neither are probable, and either outcome would almost certainly hurt people of color in predominantly conservative states.

Biden thought he would be an arbiter president, he thought he would be able to unite the country, heal the divide, being both sides together under mutual compromise, but he failed to understand that Republicans hate him on principal. Doesn’t matter how much he tries to appease them, they still hate him because they have to hate him, even if they agree with him. It would be political suicide for any of them to side with Biden on anything, Trump has already vowed to support primary challengers, his presidency was the final nail in the coffin of bipartisanship. Bipartisanship is dead, it hasn’t been alive in decades, and the only people who call for it are the minority party.

Trump is hard liquor, unappealing to anyone but his alcoholic voters; Biden is diet ginger ale, inoffensive and boring, nobody really wanted him, he only ran to try and settle everyone’s stomachs, and he hasn’t been very successful yet. He honestly believed he would be a neutral alternative for the alcoholics; that level of optimism would be adorable if it weren’t so pathetic. It’s gonna take a lot more than 12 steps to break the country’s addiction.

[freestrangerfury]

Eight Reasons to Be Thankful for the Shit-Storm That is 2020

No large gatherings means no family drama. Plus, you’ll never run out of white meat.

2020 was clearly the worst year in history. A global pandemic, racial injustice, political upheaval, wildfires, murder hornets. Fortunately, advertising execs are masters at burying the negative and promoting the positive.  Thanks to ad people, generations of children ate bowls of sugar cereals, filled with high fructose corn syrup and we said it was, “Part of this nutritious breakfast.” Not the nutritious part. But who cares. See, positivity!

It’s in this spirit that this San Francisco ad agency has agreed to re-brand the worst year in history as the “New and Improved Roaring Twenties.” So let’s put all this nonsense about the apocalypse behind us. Because there are, in fact, plenty of reasons to be thankful for the shit-show that is 2020.

 2020 is the year a 107-year-old lady cheated certain COVID death and celebrated with a Bud Light. Worst year ever? Hell no.

Reason #1

You Can Blame Your Failures on External Forces

In 2020, it was easy to blame world events for your own stupidity. If, for example, you were laid off for gross incompetence, or stealing office supplies, or just being lousy at your job, it was easy to pass yourself off as another victim of the economic collapse. No one had to know you were actually laid off because the company considered you an insurance risk. And because you were laid off, that pending HR investigation into your behavior at the office holiday party became a moot point. (Innocent until proven guilty, right?) That makes 2020 a great year to be a thoroughly ineffectual boob.

Reason # 2

A Family-Free Holiday Season

For Americans that believe in science, this is the one year when you’re actually not supposed to spend the holidays with extended family. How great is that? No passive-aggressive conflicts with your mother-in-law. No creepy great uncle that’s overly affectionate with your teenage daughters. And no heated debates with your redneck cousin who still insists the election was rigged. It’s also a boon for broken families. No need to attend a 4 pm Thanksgiving meal at your mother’s suburban townhouse and then slink out, drive downtown, and sit for a second dinner at your dad’s pied-à-terre, which he currently shares with his 28-year-old girlfriend.  

Reason #3

Less Keeping Up with the Jones’

No need to spend money on luxuries you can’t afford. This is 2020. You didn’t go anywhere! No large gatherings meant zero dollars spent on fancy dresses you can only wear once. Ditto for shoes, handbags, and even soap. (Well, maybe, that last one is just me.)  No money spent on new work clothes since no one ever saw what was going on below the waist (unless you’re Jeffrey Toobin). Sure you spent a little bit more having drugs and alcohol delivered, but that’s so much cheaper than dinners out with your pompous friends who insist on ordering the most expensive bottle of wine when, in actuality, they couldn’t tell a bottle of Screaming Eagle from Boone’s Farm. Truth be told, if you didn’t lose your job, you probably saved more money than ever before.

 Reason #4

The Pandemic Saved Our Democracy

Joe Biden will soon be president. But his victory was no landslide. It’s safe to assume that had the Trump Administration not thoroughly mishandled the Corona Virus he may well have been re-elected. So while our hearts hurt for the many families who lost loved ones to this horrible disease, we hope there’s some comfort from knowing their death was not in vain. With a new president about to take office, and a vaccine set to be distributed by year’s end, this pandemic may have actually saved the republic.

Reason #5

Fewer School Shootings

It sucked not having our kids in school and online learning is a pain. But, on the bright side, there have been far fewer school shootings since this insanity began. In 2019, there were around 130 incidents of gunfire on school grounds. In 2020, there were only 62! (Even for ad people, it’s tough to make 62 school shootings into a positive, especially with 98 percent of schools closed from March until September, but we’re trying.) But there’s more good news: With all the kids stuck learning at home, bulletproof backpacks no longer top the Christmas wishlist. Yeah, 2020.

Reason #6

A 103-year-old woman beat COVID-19 and celebrated with a Bud Light.  

This one would be even better if Anheuser-Busch was our client. But, nonetheless, you can’t argue with a comeback story about a blind nursing home resident stricken by COVID. The family said their final goodbyes to the great-great-grandmother. When asked if she was ready to go to heaven, the feisty centurion replied, "Hell, yes."  But, as it turned out, heaven wasn’t ready for her.  The blind, bed-ridden woman survived, and once out the woods asked to toast her recovery with her favorite beverage, an ice-cold Bud Light. It was a great year for Division of Labor head of security, Mort Denberg, pictured here with the guy who picks up his crap.

Reason #7

There’s No Better Time to be a Dog

2020 has been heaven for dogs. They love this COVID thing. Masks and PPE shortages be damned. Everybody stuck in the house, wearing the same clothes day after day, smelling like a wet sweater that’s been wrapped around a dead trout. Our dogs haven’t been left alone since lockdown started. Prior to 2020, dogs were left in the house for hours while we drove to an office to sit in a cubicle and not talk to 90% of the people there. These days our dogs rule the world. They’re always lighting up our Zoom calls and they’re gonna hate this vaccine more than vacuum cleaners.

Reason #8

Endless Fodder for Saturday Night Live

SNL, one of the longest-running TV series in broadcast history, has gone thru many iterations. Some seasons epic, others epic fails. But with all that’s gone wrong in 2020, coming up with crowd-pleasing comedy sketches is like shooting fish in a barrel. We will miss Alec Baldwin as Donald Trump, and Kate McKinnon as Rudy Giuliani. But we look forward to more Jim Carey cameos as our lovable, albeit doddering and slightly demented, leader of the free world.  

Alec Baldwin as the Big Orange Machine and Kate McKinnon as Rudy G. 2020 at its best.

Well, that’s all. Wishing all advertising agency insiders and anyone else who got sucked into reading this blog post a very happy Thanksgiving. Stay safe. Stay healthy and let the holiday merriment commence.

[go-redgirl]

Nolte: Here Are 11 of Joe Biden’s Biggest Debate Lies

President Trump trounced Joe Biden during their final debate Thursday night in Tennessee. It wasn’t even close. Biden was looking at his watch because he couldn’t wait to get the hell out of the ring (I’m also told the debate took place in the middle of a Matlock marathon.) I was looking at my watch because I didn’t want it to end.

A quick word on the muting the microphones…

You put boundaries around a filmmaker like Michael Cimino, you get classics like Thunderbolt and Lightfoot and the Deer Hunter. You take away those boundaries, you get Heaven’s Gate.

You put boundaries around a Dennis Hopper, you get a classic like Easy Rider. You take away those boundaries, you get a disaster like The Last Movie.

Trump is an artist. He needs boundaries. Threatening to mute his microphone helped him and hurt Biden. It hurt Biden because interrupting (something he did a half dozen times in the first debate before Trump ever interrupted him) is the only debate tactic Biden has. Go back and watch his 2012 vice presidential debate with Paul Ryan.

Trump doesn’t  need to interrupt to win a debate. He’s a gifted debater. The threat to mute the microphones took away Biden’s only go-to move and  forced Trump to win on substance and facts.

One more observation before we get to China Joe’s lies.

Last night, Trump was forced to defend his record, to explain it… And because he has a very good record as president, he was able to.

Because Joe Biden has a terrible record, he was forced to lie… To tell 11 bald-faced whoppers, and here they are… All of Biden’s quotes below come directly from last night’s debate. [emphasis mine throughout]  

1. No One Lost Their Insurance Under ObamaCare

BIDEN:  “That’s why I did not — not one single person, private insurance, would lose their insurance under my plan, nor did they under Obamacare. They did not lose their insurance, unless they chose they wanted to go to something else.”

FACT: Up to six million people lost their private health insurance plan after Obamacare became the law of the land, and the reason people lost their private health insurance is the most immoral things about Obamacare… Obamacare outlawed — actually made it illegal, for private insurance to offer private plans that did not live up to Obamacare’s lofty and ridiculous standards. Essentially, Obamacare demands we all, each and every one of us, pay for Cadillac plans that include all kinds of things we don’t need. So if, for instance, you had a reasonably priced catastrophic  plan with a high deductible — and these are perfect plans for the healthy — Obamacare outlawed them.

So many people lost their private plans that even the Obama-loving media were forced to declare Obama’s promise that “no one would lose their insurance or doctor” the Lie of the Year.

2. America was Cozy with Hitler

BIDEN: “We had a good relationship with Hitler before he in fact invaded Europe, the rest of Europe.”

FACT: This is such a ludicrous lie it’s hardly worth debunking. Franklin Roosevelt was president during Hitler’s rise. Roosevelt became president in 1932. Hitler became Germany’s chancellor in 1934. The president has sole authority over foreign policy, and at no time was Roosevelt fooled by Hitler. He certainly tried to stop and stay out of the European war, but Hitler’s aggression towards our allies and Hitler’s own hatred of America… This is such a stupid lie.

The reason Biden told this lie is what’s most illuminating. Biden is embarrassed that Trump has been able to do something Obama and Biden could not… Get North Korea to stop rattling its war sabers and firing off missiles.

Before Trump took office, North Korea (like ISIS) was on everyone’s mind. Thanks to Trump’s handling of North Korea (and ISIS), we hardly think about it anymore.

3. I Never Opposed Fracking

BIDEN:  “I have never said I oppose fracking.”

FACT: Biden spent the entire primary opposing fracking. There’s a ton of video of it. Here’s a taste:  

4. I Didn’t Oppose Trump’s China Travel Ban

BIDEN: “I talked about his xenophobia in a different context. It wasn’t about closing the border to Chinese coming to the United States.”

FACT: Here are Biden’s own tweets attacking the China travel ban as xenophobic:  We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus. We need to lead the way with science — not Donald Trump’s record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency. 5:01 PM · Feb 1, 2020

See new TweetsTweet

Joe Biden@JoeBiden·Mar 18Stop the xenophobic fear-mongering. Be honest. Take responsibility. Do your job.

Stop the xenophobic fear-mongering. Be honest. Take responsibility. Do your job.3:35 PM · Mar 18, 2020105.3K

I always treated the Chinese Virus very seriously, and have done a very good job from the beginning, including my very early decision to close the “borders” from China - against the wishes of almost all. Many lives were saved. The Fake News new narrative is disgraceful & false!

5. Illegal Aliens Show Up For Asylum Hearings After Being Caught and Released

BIDEN: “The catch and release, you know what he’s talking about there? If in fact, you had family, came across, they’re arrested. They, in fact, were given a date to show up for their hearing. They were released. And guess what, they showed up for the hearing. ”

FACT: Catch and release is America’s gobsmackingly stupid policy of catching illegal aliens in our country and then releasing them back into our country with a notice to show up for an asylum hearing. 

Yes, we release illegals into our own country after we have caught them. These illegals have already broken the law, but we still release them and tell them to come to a court proceeding, which they will almost certainly lose, which means they will be deported. In other words, they have no incentive to show up.

Through a number of maneuvers I don’t want to get bogged down in here, Trump has made amazing strides in putting an end to catch and release. Biden would reinstate it, and in order to justify it, he’s falsely claiming illegals dutifully show up for their asylum hearings. 

Well, they don’t. Close to 90 percent do not.What’s more, it only makes sense that they don’t. 

Why would they? If they were legitimate asylum seekers, they would have asked for asylum in a legal fashion. These are illegals who snuck in and only ask for asylum after they’re caught.Raising the Minimum Wage Does Not Hurt Anyone

BIDEN: “There is no evidence that when you raise the minimum wage, business has gone out of business. That is simply not true.”FACT: 

Biden wants to more than double the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, another disastrous one-size-fits-all idea. And now he’s claiming that forcing companies to double payroll expenses (this also increases taxes paid by employers) won’t hurt businesses. 

He further claims it never has.The idea that mandating a raise in the minimum wage hurts businesses and workers is not even controversial. Everyone knows it does.

What Trump said is exactly right. This should be left to the states. A $15  minimum wage might make sense in blue states with their unnecessarily high cost of living, but South Dakota and Alabama sure don’t need it.No One Brought Up Biden’s Troubling Ukraine Conflicts of Interest During ImpeachmentBIDEN: “Nothing was unethical. 

Here’s what the deal, with regard to Ukraine, we had this whole question about whether or not because he was on the board. I later learned of Burisma, a company that somehow, I had done something wrong. 

Yet, every single, solitary person when he was going through his impeachment testifying under oath who worked for him said I did my job impeccably. I carried out U.S. policy. 

Not one single solitary thing was out of line. Not a single thing. Number one.

”FACT: Again, we have the video tape proving this is a lie. 

A whole lot of people involved with impeachment were concerned with Hunter Biden looting Ukraine while his dad, the vice president, was the Obama administration’s point person there.

Trump Never Told Putin to Stop Meddling in American Elections

BIDEN: “And to the best of my knowledge, I don’t think the President said anything to Putin about [election meddling].

”FACT: Oh, isn’t China Joe, whose family received $3.5 million from the former mayor of Moscow, precious when he says to the “best of my knowledge.

” He knows damn well Trump has told Putin to butt out — plenty of times.

Hunter’s Emails are Part of a “Russian Plan”BIDEN: 

“Look, there are 50 former National Intelligence folks who said that what this, he’s accusing me of is a Russian plan. 

They have said that this has all the characteristics– four– five former heads of the CIA, both parties, say what he’s saying is a bunch of garbage.

”FACT: The evidence that the Hunter Biden  emails exposing Joe Biden as the head of a crime family trading off his role as vice president to get rich continue to be verified — and done so on-the-record, including pollster Frank Luntz.

FACT: Because he’s old and growing senile, Biden garbled this with a double negative, but Biden is claiming Trump refused to take any responsibility for the coronavirus, when the only thing Trump claimed he was not responsible for was the early testing failures, and Trump was in no way responsible for the early testing failures. Trump was VERY specific on this point.

Trump Has Alienated ‘All’ Our Allies BIDEN:  “[H]e pokes his finger in the eye of all our friends, all of our allies.

”FACT: What in the world is Biden even talking about here? Our relationship with Israel has never been better. 

He’s convinced Mexico and other countries to make great strides in slowing down illegal immigration. Peace is breaking out all over the Middle East. I could go on and on…

READ MORE STORIES ABOUT:

2020 Election Politics debate Donald Trump Fact Check Joe Biden John Nolte

_____________________________________________

OPINION:  Have anyone ever known a Democrat not to lie, cheat, still point a finger at the innocence to say their own family or themselves.  

Heck, we believe the Democrats invented lies in this country 😂🤣🤣 

If the didn’t they wouldn’t be able to survive in their crooked, deceptive lying world that their ‘brains’ live in.  

[alwayswriting123]

Are Young People Tuning In?

Youngsters don’t want to sit through either a 2 or 3 hour-long debate of old people arguing about why they deserve to sit their kiesters in one of the world's most powerful chairs ever. (Hmm, wonder if it’s a lazy boy... anyway) No, they’d rather sit around and vape or do the smart thing like the bird-box challenge and posting it online.

In fact, I bet if I asked a group of teenagers who Pete Buttigieg is, they’d reply with a vacuum cleaner salesman and I’m not kidding. I sat down with a group of teenagers and someone literally said he’s a vacuum cleaner salesman. I felt so bad for little Petie I continued to ask them questions on all of the current candidates. Their results? A D+. So I began to wonder, just how many teenagers aren’t tuning into the debates? And what’s the most efficient way of getting to these young voters? Through social media and other places of course! 

Well I mean, like, I don’t know about other people but I just don’t care about that kind of stuff. Like, I hear about politics a lot more in my household and stuff - it’s not that I don’t wanna learn it’s just that I feel afraid to contribute to the conversation, you know? Like I don’t wanna open my mouth and say something wrong. Trust me, I don’t like Donald Trump at all, I really don’t know why he won in the first place. That say’s a lot about America. Like a lot but, I really hope he doesn’t win again. I mean, I voted in the past.

Me: “That’s good you should keep doing that.” 

That’s why I feel bad because I didn’t vote in the last election. And it wasn’t because I didn’t like either candidate, I liked Hillary. But I just felt like my vote wouldn’t count. The electoral college is messed up! That **** is crazy and plain bananas. - Greg Soyer

Mmm, that **** was indeed crazy and bananas. (This **** is bananas- B-A-N-A-N-A-S!) But I still was hungry for answers. Why was the **** crazy? I needed to find out. So I did the opposite of what I did the first time and asked older and much wiser people.

Question 1. Why do you feel like young voters aren’t or are tuned in to the election?

I think young people starting out in life are very worried about one thing and that is what is going to happen to their future. The presidency affects not just the individual but also their entire existence. Though the argument can also be made that they also don’t tune in because they mistrust the government and at times think it’s corrupt. - Tucker White

No reliable news outlets. [There is] too much to sort through.- Anonymous

I feel like young voters don’t want to be involved or, the ones that are involved don’t pay attention to the policies. - Anonymouse

While I’m not sure if more young adults are tuned in are tuned in or not, I personally feel conflicted. On one hand, I’m invested because I want Trump & his administration out of office. On the other hand, I feel discouraged about who can be trusted to lead our nation next. It feels like the corruption never ends, regardless of who’s in office.- Elizabeth Adebayo

You know it’s funny that you bring that up because I asked my son if he was gonna vote and he said no. I asked him why not and he just responded with my vote won’t change anything. And you know, I feel bad. As a mother, you hear your kid telling you he has no control over what happens in his life? It made my heart almost break. I wanted to argue with him but... I couldn’t look him in the eye and tell him to vote because I’m not even sure if it’ll change anything with the last election.- Elizabeth DeTar.

I can speak for like late 20-somethings millennials. We’re too busy drowning in debt and trying to make it to care about a bunch of lackluster candidates who don’t seem to be inspiring - Anonymous

I soon realized a pattern in each responder's answers. They all felt betrayed. Violated by their government, concerned and scared about not only where their future would end up but, the next generations. I, for one, had hope that democracy wasn’t dead. And to prove it, I continued my search for some good ole’ fashioned teenage spirit, printed out a couple of headshots of each of the 2020 democratic candidates and headed to the one place where teenagers gather (sometimes in flocks) the mall.

First up was Bernie Sanders.

“Do you know who this guy is?”

Oh, of course, that’s Bernie Sanders. He’s one of the candidates. - Amanda Peters

Amanda got Pete, Sanders, Elizabeth, and Biden right, but when it came to Klobuchar... she got the short end of the stick.

Oh... yeah I don’t know, gee I guess I don’t know much about the candidates.

But that was just one person, right? Next, Tom Styer.

“Who is this guy, what do you think of him and do you know any of his policies?”

Oh shoot... I know the guy! I just can’t remember his name. Oh jeez, am I gonna get in trouble for this? 

"Okay, I believe you. Do you know any of his policies?”

I’m not even gonna lie, I haven’t even been to his page.

“Do you know who your gonna vote for in the 2020 elections?”

Oh, definitely Pete Buttigieg! I definitely have huge respect for him and his campaign. I mean to come out on national television as a gay man and give zero ***** about it? That takes huge balls. And he has a certain Obama swag about him. I’m not just voting for him because we're both gay, that’s the stupidest argument ever people try to make. I’m voting for him because he’s actually got great ideas. For example, his climate change policy is offering a National Catastrophic Disaster Insurance program that helps and provides stability to people like me. Our house was hit last year. - Ben Potemyer

Wow, now that’s somebody who knows their stuff! Also, he later told me to mention he highly recommends that people read up on his policies. So I invite all of you to look into him with me.

Question 2. Do you feel like most people are just tuning in more now than ever because they just want Donald Trump out of office or for other reasons? And if so, what are those reasons? 

In a way, Trump has awakened people who, otherwise, wouldn’t care to know what’s going on politically. I also think that he’s insighted a new era of people to at least watch his comedic politics to get their news. The Trevor Noah’s & Hasan Minhaj’s of the world have become more popular because people are trying to engage in polotics without boring themselves or feeling lost in the conversation. -  Elizabeth Adebayo

Yes, people are tuning into the news because of the recent impeachment trial. But I don’t feel like it’s just for seeing him removed from office. - Tucker White 

I think people are tuning in because of Trump. Because they see even though the president has checks and balances, he can still have a huge implication on other Americans and how those Americans treat other people. - Anonymous

I do believe it has to do with wanting Trump out, but I think that is because of a want for other types of social policies that Trump is against. - Anonymous

I don’t think more people are tuning in. I think we’re all transient bystanders watching the circus fire. - Anonymous

Another coincidence, among these people I interviewed, all of them said that they think young people aren't focused on this coming election. I wanted to try and find more people. All of this talk about generations got me thinking. What if there were people, who couldn’t even vote yet, had opinions? I met a powerful little 10 year old. And I’ll never forget what she said. 

I don’t think it’s because of either one of those things. I think people now see what they have done and who they’ve put in the oval office and they want to correct what they’ve done. Because deep down, we should all love each other. Love should always win.” - Ashley

Love should always win. Wise kid huh? 

Question 3. Who do you have your eye on in the race? What draws you to them?

I’m supportive of Bernie Sanders, as I was in the last race. His views seem to be less about solely taking care of the wealthy, but actually looking out for working-class people. I want a leader who cares about helping Americans create better lives for themselves through healthcare & employment v.s focusing solely on our external affairs. I’m also interested in Elizabeth Warren, but I need to do more research on her political decisions. -  Elizabeth Adebayo

I have my eye on three candidates, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and, Bernie Sanders. Currently, I’m leaning towards Elizabeth Warren. Joe seems a little consertive and Bernie seems too progressive. Elizabeth has just the right balance. - Tucker White

Of all the candidates I would consider Gabbard, Yang, Biden or Trump. I lean center-right and see the U.S as doing pretty well right now. I do find Gabbard and Yang appealing because they seem very genuine and tell it like it is, similar to Bernie. - Anonymous

I don’t really have anyone I’m drawn to right now if anything, Bernie Sanders but I don’t know everything about him either. - Anonymous

No one. - Anonymous

Question 4. Why are all the big named candidates like Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar popular in the news? 

Honestly, I don’t know. - Elizabeth Adebayo

I feel like these names are in the news the most because they are the mainstream and more established friendly.  - Anonymous

I suppose they pop up bc they’re campaigning and doing they’re part to try to spread their message. - Anonymous

I think the simplest way of saying it is because they have the money and resources to be able to.  - Tucker White

Mayor Pete appeals the common man, Bernie has a wonderful grassroots base, Joe Biden was/is associated with Obama and, Elizabeth Warren is supposed to appeal to women(?) I don’t know about that last one. I expect they make a splash because either A: they have clout and social media following or B: they have the money to appear like they have clout. You forgot Yang! (This person is referring to Yang being a big named candidate.) - Anonymous

Question 5. Who do you feel has the most successful chance of being president? 

At this point, I don’t know. For better or for worse, Trumps election has changed the expectation of what we view as a suitible leader to run our nation, so I can’t even say. I do think that we, as Americans, are over the smoke & mirrors of politics. - Elizabeth Adebayo 

I think Trump either gets re-elected or Bernie or Biden gets elected. Warren isin’t as strong as Sanders in my eyes. Anonymous

I feel like maybe Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden. Maybe even Bernie. - Anonymous

I’d say Elizabeth Warren would be the best canidate for the job. - Tucker White - 

I don’t know, maybe Warren. I honestly think our country sucks enough that we’re about to elect Donald Trump again. - Anonymous

Question 6. What are the biggest flaws amping these candidates and what could help improve their chances?

I just want a politician that’s real that cares about actual people and isn’t the “Better of two evils” bull. - Anonymous

The thing that’s hurting all these campaigns is easily that they’re just playing to their bases instead of trying to sway moderates and voters on the other side. - Anonymous

To face not just the Democrats but also the Republicans. - Tucker White

Bernie and Biden feel like familiar territory to me, so with the exception of Warren, the other candidates haven’t built enough of a rapport with the country to solidify their chances. -  Elizabeth Adebayo

Question 7. How do you feel about Pete Buttigieg? Do you think him being gay will hurt him or do you think we, as a country have gotten over that hurdle?

I’d say he’s a pretty good alternative to Biden. From what I hear he doesn’t have very good support in the south, where Biden does, but he can be seen as a strong candidate to religious voters. - Anonymous

As a country, I don’t think we’ve gotten over that hurdle, despite what the media portrays, but if he could speak to the needs of working/middle-class Americans by talking about the things that matter most to them, he might have a chance. - Elizabeth Adebayo

[Buttigieg] Sounds like a solid candidate. I like what I’ve heard about him so far. As for his chances, America is still super “Christian”. And that’s a large chunk of the voting base that isn't ready for a gay president. So no, we suck at getting over that hurdle.- Anonymous

Question 8. And finally, do you think young voters are just affiliating themselves with their parents/ close friends same party? 

I want to say that more conservative voters may be doing that because they focus a lot on the idea of the collective through their moral or religious values. Liberals, on the other hand seem to think more individually, but are more heavily influenced by their friends. - Elizabeth  Adebayo

Ergh, maybe younger ones. In my experience with mid to late twenty-somethings, we’re diametrically opposed to family members voting wise-- to the point where it’s awkward at family reuinions. - Anonymous

I would like to thank everyone who participated in this very long post about what everyday Americans thought about the candidates so far. For the most part,  I say young people/first-time voters are clearly in desperate need of just a little education on each of the candidates and the power - the drive to get engaged. But most of all, to not be afraid. To all my readers, thank you.

[thisdaynews]

'He doesn’t have any new ideas': John Delaney bashes Biden

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/he-doesnt-have-any-new-ideas-john-delaney-bashes-biden/

'He doesn’t have any new ideas': John Delaney bashes Biden

Democratic candidate John Delaney said he was forced to “wedge” himself into discussions in June’s debate in Miami because “it was pretty obvious I wasn’t going to get any questions.” | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO

2020 Candidate Forum

“I have a bunch of new ideas that can allow us to reimagine our future,” Delaney said in a wide-ranging interview with POLITICO reporters and editors.

Joe Biden has the fundraising muscle, the lead in the polls and the cachet with voters from his years as Barack Obama’s No. 2.

But John Delaney says he’s got something to offer that the former vice president does not.

Story Continued Below

“He doesn’t have any new ideas, and he’s effectively just running an old playbook,” Delaney, a former lawmaker from Maryland, said of Biden in a wide-ranging interview Thursday with POLITICO reporters and editors. “On all these issues, I have a bunch of new ideas that can allow us to reimagine our future, and I think people get that I can do that.”

Delaney, like Biden, is running as a relative moderate in the Democratic field who says he could work with Republicans to get things done if he defeats President Donald Trump in 2020.

The fact that he started two businesses and became the youngest CEO in the history of the New York Stock Exchange, he said, gives him credibility with voters “around getting new things done and building new things, which always comes out at all the meet-and-greets I have.”

“People come up and say: ‘Oh, I really like your ideas. They’re new. They’re different,’” he recalled in the interview, which is part of a POLITICO series with 2020 candidates. “And I just think, at the end of the day, the vice president is effectively running on a bunch of President Obama’s — the policies of that administration, many of which I support.”

Delaney expressed support for Biden’s health care plan, saying his administration would also prioritize making changes to Obama’s Affordable Care Act within its first 100 days “because we have to do that.”

“But then there’s not another chapter. There’s not another page to turn with his health-care plan,” he said. “Like, he doesn’t have a plan as to how we actually get to universal health care, which I think most Americans intuitively want and think we deserve.” Delaney’s own plan would extend a new health insurance plan that covers basic medical services to everyone under 65.

Delaney similarly said he agrees with Biden’s pledge to recommit the U.S. to the Paris climate accord. “But there’s got to be the next reimagination,” he said. “There’s got to be Paris 2.0.” Delaney has proposed a carbon “cap and dividend” plan that would impose fees on every ton of carbon dioxide emitted.

The Biden campaign declined to comment.

Delaney will have an opportunity to address the former vice president’s ideas on the debate stage at the end of the month. He said he was forced to “wedge” himself into discussions in June’s debate in Miami because “it was pretty obvious I wasn’t going to get any questions.” But he is more optimistic about how CNN will conduct its debates.

He said candidates will each get one minute to deliver opening and closing statements, noting NBC allotted only 45 seconds for a closing statement at the previous debate. He also said CNN would enforce a rule that bars interruptions by penalizing candidates who speak out of turn.

“So, if someone were to interrupt and say something for 20 seconds, you lose 20 seconds, including on your closing. And I think that’s great,” he said. “I’m all for rules. I just want them to be applied fairly.”

Delaney said he’s “working hard” to meet the criteria for another set of debates in the fall, which require candidates to hit 2 percent in four approved polls and have 130,000 individual donors. But he said it would be fine if he didn’t hit that bar in time for the September debate.

“You could potentially miss the third and make the fourth, and I think that’s actually fine. In some ways, that’s good,” he said. “It gives you extra time … and suddenly, you’ve kind of had a little bit of comeback.”

According to Federal Election Commission filings, Delaney loaned his campaign nearly $8 million last quarter, and it wasn’t the first time he’s put his own cash toward his 2020 bid.

“I put $11 million in at the end of the first quarter and then I took it out the next day,” he said. “My team said it’ll look good if we have a lot of money on hand, so I said, ‘Well, I can fix that problem.’”

He said he’d spent about $7 million of his own cash, which he called “still a lot of money.”

Delaney insists he has plenty of money to sustain his campaign through the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses and hasn’t prioritized courting donors.

“I haven’t spent a lot of time fundraising,” he said. “It’s not that I can’t raise money. I could sit in a room, make calls 30 hours a week and raise $4 [million] or $5 million. I just didn’t think it was worth my time to do that, to be honest with you.”

Delaney, who has pledged to campaign until Iowans caucus next year and who has already been to all 99 counties in the Hawkeye state, said he and his wife asked themselves three questions before they decided he should run for president, including whether there was a path for him to be a viable candidate.

“The minute the answer to those questions starts becoming something other than yes, then you start thinking differently about it,” he said. “If I don’t do well in the Iowa caucus, then obviously the answer to one of those questions becomes no. Because I’ve spent a lot of time there, and if that doesn’t work, then it doesn’t work.”

What doing well looks like, though, is still unclear to the campaign. “Depends on how many people are in it,” Delaney said. “If there’s five people in it and you come in fifth, that’s not so great. But if there’s actually 18 people in the Iowa caucus and three of them, four of them, are dominant favorites and you come in fifth, that’s actually something you all would care about.”

Read More

[everettwilkinson]

WHITE HOUSE ‘squeezes’ Jeff Flake — No new timetable for health care vote — SECRET SERVICE v. Jay Sekulow — BIDEN’s new book — CAITLIN HAYDEN welcomes a daughter — B’DAY: Kayla Tausche

Good Monday morning. SIREN — ALEX ISENSTADT: “White House squeezes Jeff Flake”: “The White House has met with at least three actual or prospective primary challengers to Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake in recent weeks, a reflection of Donald Trump’s strained relations with the senator and the latest sign of the president’s willingness to play hardball with lawmakers who cross him — even Republican incumbents. Flake, a longtime Trump critic who refused to endorse the president during the 2016 campaign, is one of a handful of undecided Republican votes on the Obamacare repeal effort. He’s also one of the most vulnerable Republicans up for reelection in 2018.

“Since taking office, Trump has spoken with Arizona state Treasurer Jeff DeWit, a top official on his 2016 campaign, on at least two occasions, according to two sources familiar with the talks. Since June, White House officials have also had discussions with former state Sen. Kelli Ward, who has announced her bid, and former Arizona GOP Chairman Robert Graham, who like DeWit is exploring a campaign.” http://politi.co/2tid77g

Story Continued Below

— IF TRUMP BACKS a challenger to Flake, it will be a big, big deal. The White House merely meeting with candidates is certain to raise ire in the Senate Republican Conference. Loyalty is a big deal in the Senate. The NRSC vociferously tries to head off primary challenges, and senators often bristle when outsiders try to displace one of their own. Despite apparent ideological differences with the White House, Flake is a pretty popular senator. We can’t imagine Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will be happy with this. Bottom line: Trump needs McConnell in order to get virtually anything done in Congress. And this is sure to get him riled up. BUT, BUT, BUT … The Trump team has threatened and ultimately abandoned primary challenges in the past.

IMPORTANT READ — MCCAIN COULD BE OUT FOR TWO WEEKS — “McCain’s Surgery May Be More Serious Than Thought, Experts Say,” by NYT’s Denise Grady and Robert Pear: “The condition for which Senator John McCain had surgery on Friday may be more serious than initial descriptions have implied, and it may delay his return to Washington by at least a week or two, medical experts said on Sunday. …

“The statement from Mr. McCain’s office said a two-inch blood clot was removed from ‘above his left eye’ during a “minimally invasive craniotomy with an eyebrow incision” at the Mayo Clinic Hospital in Phoenix, ‘following a routine annual physical.’ … A craniotomy is an opening of the skull, and an eyebrow incision would be used to reach a clot in or near the left frontal lobes of the brain, neurosurgeons who were not involved in Mr. McCain’s care said. …

“But many questions have been left unanswered, including whether Mr. McCain had symptoms that prompted doctors to look for the clot. In June, his somewhat confused questioning of James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director, led to concerns about his mental status, which he later jokingly dismissed by saying he had stayed up too late watching baseball the night before. ‘Usually, a blood clot like this is discovered when patients have symptoms, whether it’s a seizure or headaches or weakness or speech difficulties,’ Dr. Baxi said. ‘Generally, it’s not found on a routine physical because doctors would not know to look for it.’” http://nyti.ms/2u0Rs0A

— A TWO-WEEK MCCAIN ABSENCE would put a vote during the first week of August. That’s a long time for this bill to linger. This timeline means the House would likely be forced back into session in August if the Senate passes its bill when McCain returns.

BY THE WAY … The Congressional Budget Office will not release a budgetary score of the healthcare bill today. Burgess and SMK say it could come Tuesday.

**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/2lQswbh

BURGESS EVERETT and SEUNG MIN KIM: “Obamacare repeal bill plunges into new uncertainty”: “Republicans’ long-held plans to repeal Obamacare are again in serious doubt, with no clear timetable for a Senate vote following the surprise news that John McCain will be out as he recovers from surgery. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) shelved a vote planned for this week following the disclosure of McCain’s procedure, which leaves the GOP clearly short of support to advance the bill. McConnell’s office could give no new schedule for the vote, and most on Capitol Hill are waiting for a pathology report to assess how long it will be before McCain returns after undergoing surgery to remove a blood clot above his eye.

“Privately, Republicans said the delay could be as little as a week as McCain recovers in Arizona, though others worried it could stretch for several weeks and jeopardize the entire repeal effort. … Whether the bill would advance even if McCain were in Washington is another question altogether, as the Arizona senator is one of more than half a dozen undecided Republicans, any one of whom could tank the bill.” http://politi.co/2uxiYFX

DOH! — “How the White House and Republicans underestimated Obamacare repeal,” by Nancy Cook and Burgess Everett: “The Trump transition team and other Republican leaders presumed that Congress would scrap Obamacare by President’s Day weekend in late February, according to three former Republican congressional aides and two current ones familiar with the administration’s efforts. Republican leaders last fall planned a quick strike on the law in a series of meetings and phone calls, hoping to simply revive a 2015 repeal bill that Obama vetoed. Few in the administration or Republican leadership expected the effort to stretch into the summer months, with another delay announced this weekend, eating into valuable time for lawmakers to tackle tax reform, nominations or spending bills.

“‘It’s easier to rage against the machine when you’re not in control of the machine, No. 1. And the perception that we are in control of the machine is inaccurate,’ said Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). ‘Needing 50 out of 52 members on the same page in the Senate? I think that is not being in control of the machine.’” http://politi.co/2v97w0v

— ANOTHER KEY QUOTE IN NANCY AND BURGESS’S STORY: Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.): “I would have much preferred to start off with tax. But that wasn’t my decision. Tax is the heavy lift here. It’s not going to be easier than health care. And we’ve been doing this for seven months.”

A GOOD REMINDER: tax reform is going to be hard. Really hard.

NUMBERS DU JOUR: 9 LEGISLATIVE DAYS until the planned August recess. Still lingering: Obamacare repeal and replace, executive branch nominations and the debt ceiling. 53 LEGISLATIVE DAYS left in 2017, per the House’s calendar.

****** A message from the National Retail Federation: {Video} Small business owners work hard to build their businesses and turn their dreams into realities. Under the House-proposed Border Adjustment Tax, they are at risk to lost it all. Watch Vivian’s story. ******

TOUGH JOB – “Meet Obamacare repeal’s top salesman: Sen. John Cornyn faces his toughest task yet as the GOP’s whip,” by Seung Min Kim and Burgess Everett: “Senate Republicans are in a grumpy mood these days. Then there’s John Cornyn, who’s almost unfailingly optimistic about the GOP’s chances of passing its Obamacare repeal bill despite the increasingly long odds. ‘I mean, if you’re going to be in a leadership role, you don’t have the luxury of public hand-wringing,’ Cornyn, the Senate majority whip, said in a recent interview in his Capitol office. Whether he’s wringing his hands in private is another matter, but the Texas Republican is facing his toughest test yet in his 4 1/2 years as chief vote-counter for the Senate GOP: rounding up 50 votes to dismantle Obamacare. …

“Though Cornyn keeps a literal whip on his desk, his style isn’t heavy-handed; it’s more gentle pushing and information-dispensing, senators say. Cornyn acknowledges: ‘If you try to strong-arm a senator, they’re just as likely to push back or punch back.’ … In the POLITICO interview, Cornyn also essentially ruled out any bipartisan health care fixes with Democrats even if the GOP’s repeal effort fails, saying problems with Obamacare are too big to solve without major structural changes.” http://politi.co/2vsiKMV

— FRED BARNES in the WSJ: “Republicans Aren’t Team Players: GOP Senators who defect from ObamaCare repeal will hurt themselves, their party and the country” http://on.wsj.com/2t75hcg

BREAK IN — “Burglary at Heller’s Las Vegas office investigated,” by the Las Vegas Sun’s Ricardo Torres-Cortez: “Metro Police say they are investigating a Sunday morning burglary at U.S. Sen. Dean Heller’s southwest Las Vegas office. Officers were dispatched about 9 a.m. to Heller’s local office … Metro Lt. Patricia Spencer on Sunday night confirmed that ‘entry did occur’ at Heller’s office, but only said that the investigation was ongoing. Further details were not immediately available.” http://bit.ly/2u09oZ7

JARED WATCH — “Fate of Kushner’s security clearance could ultimately lie with Trump,” by Austin Wright and Josh Dawsey: “Kushner’s actions — including initially failing to disclose meetings with Russian officials — would be more than enough to cost most federal employees their security clearances, according to people familiar with the security-clearance process. … Not having a security clearance would hobble him from doing large swaths of his job. On many days, he receives classified briefings, according to a senior administration official — and he is often in the room with his father-in-law for sensitive decisions about classified issues. …

“Jamie Gorelick, a lawyer for Kushner, said her client had ‘prematurely’ filed the first security clearance application form but has since done everything possible to be accurate and transparent with his meetings. … Omitting facts from a security questionnaire could be disqualifying if it was part of a deliberate effort to conceal them, according to federal guidelines; an inadvertent omission would not be so costly. Similarly, making ‘prompt, good-faith efforts’ to correct the omission can mitigate security concerns.” http://politi.co/2thrgRW

FACT CHECK — “U.S. Secret Service rejects suggestion it vetted Trump son’s meeting,” by Reuters’ Arshad Mohammed and Howard Schneider: “The U.S. Secret Service on Sunday denied a suggestion from President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer that it had vetted a meeting between the president’s son and Russian nationals during the 2016 campaign. … In an emailed response to questions about [Jay] Sekulow’s comments, Secret Service spokesman Mason Brayman said the younger Trump was not under Secret Service protection at the time of the meeting, which included Trump’s son and two senior campaign officials. ‘Donald Trump, Jr. was not a protectee of the USSS in June, 2016. Thus we would not have screened anyone he was meeting with at that time,’ the statement said.” http://reut.rs/2tvSM9O

THE COST OF WAR — “President Trump’s Air War Kills 12 Civilians Per Day,” by Samuel Oakford in The Daily Beast: “Civilian casualties from the U.S.-led war against the so-called Islamic State are on pace to double under President Donald Trump, according to an Airwars investigation for The Daily Beast. Airwars researchers estimate that at least 2,300 civilians likely died from Coalition strikes overseen by the Obama White House—roughly 80 each month in Iraq and Syria. As of July 13, more than 2,200 additional civilians appear to have been killed by Coalition raids since Trump was inaugurated—upwards of 360 per month, or 12 or more civilians killed for every single day of his administration.” http://thebea.st/2upNNMq

MIDDLE EASTERN PALACE INTRIGUE — “UAE orchestrated hacking of Qatari government sites, sparking regional upheaval, according to U.S. intelligence officials,” by WaPo’s Karen DeYoung and Ellen Nakashima: “The United Arab Emirates orchestrated the hacking of Qatari government news and social media sites in order to post incendiary false quotes attributed to Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani, in late May that sparked the ongoing upheaval between Qatar and its neighbors, according to U.S. intelligence officials. Officials became aware last week that newly analyzed information gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies confirmed that on May 23, senior members of the UAE government discussed the plan and its implementation. The officials said it remains unclear whether the UAE carried out the hacks itself or contracted to have them done. … In a statement released in Washington by its ambassador, Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE said the Post story was ‘false.’” http://wapo.st/2t5IEVV

POLLS DU JOUR — “Americans Feel Good About the Economy, Not So Good About Trump,” by Bloomberg’s John McCormick: “Just 40 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing in the White House, and 55 percent now view him unfavorably, up 12 points since December. Worse, even more — 61 percent — say the nation is headed down the wrong path, also up 12 points since December. … And despite his assurances that he and congressional Republicans will repeal Obamacare and replace it with a ‘beautiful’ new health care bill, 64 percent of Americans say they disapprove of his handling of the issue. That’s especially significant because health care topped unemployment, terrorism and immigration as the issue poll respondents chose as the most important challenge facing the nation right now.” https://bloom.bg/2vtqezb

–“Iowa Poll: As independents sour on Trump, disapproval rating tops 50%,” by Des Moines Register’s Jason Noble: “Self-identified independents have turned against Trump, with 59 percent now saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing compared with 35 percent who approve. In an Iowa Poll five months ago, his disapproval rating among independents was 50 percent, 9 percentage points lower than now.” http://dmreg.co/2vsnHoY

TRUMP’S MONDAY — The President will have lunch with Vice President Pence and then will meet with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Later in the day, he will take part in a “Made in America product showcase.”

THE JUICE …

— NYT: “Joe Biden’s New Book to Be Released in November,” by Concepcion de Leon: “On Monday, Flatiron Books revealed that the acquisition, which was first announced in April as part of a joint deal with Mr. Biden’s wife, Jill Biden (details about her book have yet to be given), would be titled ‘Promise Me, Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship, and Purpose’ and be released on Nov. 14. In it, Mr. Biden will reflect on that painful year and the challenges he faced fulfilling his political duties while mourning the death of his son. …

“This fall Mr. Biden will also embark on a tour, traveling to 19 cities across the country, starting with New York on Nov. 13, to host panel discussions with local leaders. (The events will be overseen by Creative Artists Agency, which represents Mr. Biden.) He hopes to start conversations that go beyond ‘the 24-hour news cycle and 140-character arguments,’ a statement said. Tickets, which go on sale July 28, will include a copy of his book.” http://nyti.ms/2u0paDl

— THE BLUE DOGS, a group of conservative Democrats, gathered more than 250 people at the Greenbrier in West Virginia this weekend. Up for discussion: planning for 2018 and candidate recruitment. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who is in charge of the PAC, and Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) headed up the weekend. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.), both non-Blue Dog members, were special guests.

SPOTTED: Ryan Guthrie, Katreice Banks, Libby Greer, Dan Turton, Jeff Murray, Jay Vroom, Chris Long, Norberto Salinas, Jesse Price, Lee Friedman, Angela Reimer, Gordon Taylor, Matt Sulkala, David Burns, former Reps. Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.) and Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Kelley Williams and Jen McPhillips.

SPORTS BLINK — HELP ON THE WAY — WAPO: “Nationals acquire Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson from Athletics in exchange for Blake Treinen, two others,” by Chelsea Janes: “For months, a deal to repair the Washington Nationals’ broken bullpen seemed inevitable, and Sunday, after months of frustration and speculation, they finally made one. The Nationals acquired right-hander Ryan Madson and left-hander Sean Doolittle from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for Blake Treinen, left-handed pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo, and 2016 second-round pick Sheldon Neuse. The move immediately adds two experienced relievers to the Nationals’ bullpen for the rest of this season and at least all of next, though the team will have a club option for Doolittle in 2019 and 2020, too. In other words, this is not just a patch — it is a legitimate upgrade around which the Nationals can build next season, too.” http://wapo.st/2uqoda0

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump turns to the clubhouse crowd as he arrives to enter his presidential viewing stand on July 16 during the U.S. Women’s Open Golf tournament at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo

SUSAN GLASSER’S THE GLOBAL POLITICO – “Don’t Compare Trump to Nixon. It’s Unfair to Nixon”: “Are we watching Watergate the rerun? … [I]nevitably, the magazine articles and essays, radio talk shows and book lists all mention a single remarkable work: Elizabeth Drew’s Washington Journal. Drew, at the time the New Yorker’s Washington correspondent and host of a weekly interview show on PBS, wrote the journal as a real-time diary of how the American political world handled the spiraling investigations of 1973 and 1974 … [I]f anything, Drew has come to believe that the Trump investigation could yield even more serious abuse of power or failure to execute the office than the years’ worth of Nixon probes. What’s more, the Russia scandal, she says, ‘is in many ways more complicated than Watergate was.’” http://politi.co/2vt7Fev … Transcript http://politi.co/2u0np9g … Subscribe http://apple.co/2kJ9q1U

POLITICO HEALTH CARE GURU DAN DIAMOND has two major policy stories looking at the key drivers of health care costs and focuses on how big hospitals are increasingly being run like big businesses.

— “How hospitals got richer off Obamacare”: “The Affordable Care Act drove billions of dollars in new revenue to hospitals while cutting their charity care spending and protecting their valuable tax exemptions — and not necessarily making their communities healthier, a POLITICO investigation reveals. And while Sen. Chuck Grassley led the battle to crack down on not-for-profit hospitals ahead of Obamacare negotiations, local leaders have since suffered repeated defeats and no one in Washington has stepped forward to pick up the fight.” http://politi.co/2v8KG95

— “How Cleveland Clinic gets healthier while its neighbors stay sick”: “The Cleveland Clinic has brought patients, pride and revenue to this Midwestern city — but also stirred up tensions, as residents ask if the world-renowned Clinic is doing enough to save its local neighborhood, where many residents are poor, in ill health and worried about the gunshots they hear every night.” http://politi.co/2vtmEVD

WHAT MIKE FLYNN IS UP TO THESE DAYS – “Flynn returns to hometown, surfing in respite from scandal,” by AP’s Michelle R. Smith in Middletown, Rhode Island, and Jennifer McDermott in Providence: “Former national security adviser Michael Flynn, at the center of multiple probes into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, seeks sanctuary from the swirling eddy of news coverage in the beach town where he grew up surfing and skateboarding, one of nine siblings crammed into a 1,200-square foot house. Middletown is his refuge and the ocean is his therapy, and he’s spent recent weeks here surfing and figuring out his path forward, according to friends and family members. …

“‘Have you seen that in the news? They talk about Mike as a traitor? The thought of that is absolutely insane to me,’ said older brother Jack. … Thomas A. Heaney Jr., a retired Army colonel who has known Flynn since they were 9 years old, said Flynn has been doing well and has begun work again as a consultant after shutting down his old firm. … Middletown could even become his permanent base, Heaney said. Flynn and his wife, Lori, who started dating as high school sophomores, grew up here and have deep family ties in the area.” With a great pic of Flynn surfing http://bit.ly/2vtfwZn

DATA DU JOUR — “South Carolina May Prove a Microcosm of U.S. Election Hacking Efforts,” by WSJ’s Alexa Corse: “To understand the scale of the hacking attempts against election systems in the 2016 presidential election, consider South Carolina. On Election Day alone, there were nearly 150,000 attempts to penetrate the state’s voter-registration system, according to a postelection report by the South Carolina State Election Commission. And South Carolina wasn’t even a competitive state. … In harder-fought Illinois, for instance, hackers were hitting the State Board of Elections ‘5 times per second, 24 hours per day’ from late June until Aug. 12, 2016, when the attacks ceased for unknown reasons, according to an Aug. 26, 2016, report by the state’s computer staff. Hackers ultimately accessed approximately 90,000 voter records.” http://on.wsj.com/2uyPzLG

DEEP DIVE – NATHAN HELLER in The New Yorker, “Mark as Read: What do we learn when our private e-mail becomes public?”: “Not long after the Enron Corporation imploded amid revelations of accounting fraud, in 2001, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission seized the e-mail folders of a hundred and fifty one mostly high-ranking employees … The Enron archive came to comprise hundreds of thousands of messages, and remains one of the country’s largest private e-mail corpora turned public. … Only six per cent of the e-mails … had any greeting at all; most began in medias res. The employees most likely to use a friendly greeting were women not in positions of authority, followed by men in subservient positions. Powerful men were the most likely just to open an e-mail window and start typing. In some cases, an e-mail would simply be addressed ‘Guys.’” http://bit.ly/2upINYh

****** A message from the National Retail Federation: The overwhelming majority of retailers are small businesses, with more than 98% of all retail companies employing fewer than 50 people. While small in size, their voices are loud and clear when fighting to be heard on decisions and policies that impact their businesses and the customers they serve every day. Hear more industry stories on NRF’s Retail Gets Real podcast. ******

VALLEY TALK — “Google San Jose: Can the search giant prevent traffic, housing woes?” by San Jose Mercury News’ Ethan Baron: “Google will be traveling a razor’s edge of love and hate all the way to its planned new 20,000-worker San Jose campus as it brings jobs and star power to a city that needs both while delivering extra helpings of the ills that have sparked public ire against Silicon Valley’s big technology companies. The potential downsides to Google’s planned campus in the heart of downtown check all the boxes on the list of Bay Area horrors: escalating traffic, overburdened transit systems, skyrocketing housing costs, displacement of lower-income people.” http://bayareane.ws/2uyJfDH

ON THE WSJ OP-ED PAGE: “Why Europeans Oppose the Russia Sanctions Bill,” by Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference http://on.wsj.com/2vsVy0I

MEDIAWATCH — OOPS — “Dow Jones Inadvertently Exposed Some Customers’ Information,” by WSJ’s Robert McMillan: “An error by Dow Jones & Co. in configuring a cloud-computing service left addresses and other information about subscribers to some of its products, including The Wall Street Journal, exposed to possible unauthorized access. About 2.2 million subscribers’ records were affected, a Dow Jones spokesman said. Some of the records included customer names, usernames, email and physical addresses, and the last 4 digits of credit-card numbers, although some records were missing parts of that information … The exposed data was discovered by UpGuard Inc., a cybersecurity firm, which said they notified Dow Jones of the leak on June 5.” http://on.wsj.com/2uyztSl

FLAGGING FOR SPICER AND SANDERS — ABC NEWS TO LAUNCH A W.H. BRIEFING AFTER-SHOW — Per Morning Media’s Hadas Gold: “The new live digital show, launching today, is called ‘The Briefing Room,’ and will cover the ‘White House press briefings and the latest political reporting from Washington,’ the network announced. Following the briefings (when they actually happen), correspondents like Jonathan Karl, Cecilia Vega, Mary Bruce and Rick Klein will cover the “news and announcements from the press conference with a play-by-play rundown of the topics discussed from the podium and context on the current political climate.’”

— @PhilipRucker: “We saw President Trump & family watching @jessebwatters’s Fox show on jumbo TV aboard Air Force One tonight en route home from Bedminster.”

— “Top Republicans Aren’t Signing Up For Trump’s War With The Media,” by BuzzFeed’s Alexis Levinson: “While Trump spews bile and a narrative-hungry Twitter machine looks for evidence of a trend, Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill are emphatically not on board with the president’s attacks and are, indeed, openly supportive of the free American press.” http://bzfd.it/2uqk0mP

–EMILY SCHULTHEIS has been named a 2017-18 Robert Bosch Foundation fellow and has arrived in Berlin, where she will be working on a year-long reporting project on populism and elections in Europe. She is a CBS News, National Journal and Politico alum and most recently covered the French elections. http://bit.ly/2u0OwBb

SPOTTED: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and her husband on last night’s 8 p.m. American Airlines Boston to DC shuttle seated in the exit row.

TRANSITIONS — Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) has hired senior staff to prepare for his 2018 re-election campaign. Keren Dongo, a Kaine aide and deputy state director for Hillary’s 2016 Virginia campaign, will be campaign manager. Ian Sams, a Hillary and DNC alum and recent comms director for Tom Perriello’s Virginia governor campaign, will be comms director. Jenny Nadicksbernd, Kaine’s PAC director and longtime finance aide, will be finance director. Jess Reid, a DNC alum and Hillary’s 2016 Virginia digital director, will be digital director. Megan Apper, a BuzzFeed, Maggie Hassan and American Bridge alum, will be research director.

… Katherine Charlet has been named the inaugural director of the Washington-based Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Charlet has spent the past decade at DoD and the White House and most recently was the principal director and acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy. http://ceip.org/2upmdyI

WELCOME TO THE WORLD – OBAMA ALUMNI: Caitlin Hayden, an Obama NSC alumna who now works at Edelman, and Erlingur Erlingsson, deputy chief of mission at the Embassy of Iceland in DC, email friends and family: “On July 15, 2017 at 9:14 p.m., Erlingur and I were thrilled to welcome Sophie Ásta Erlingsson to the world, weighing 6 pounds and 9 ounces. … Sophie’s middle name was chosen in honor of Erlingur’s mother, whom we lost to cancer a year ago. Our hope is that we can raise Sophie to be the same kind of fearless, generous, loving woman that Ásta was and that my mother, Ramona, is.” Pics http://bit.ly/2vsegWo … http://bit.ly/2theR0l … http://bit.ly/2thrjNG

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Saturday night at Obama alum Zaina Javaid’s 30th birthday party at a backyard in Bloomingdale: Amb. Pete Selfridge and Parita Shah, Mike Brush, Tim Hartz, Kaitlin Gaughran, Maju Varghese, Michael Donovan, Rachel Ruskin, Peter Velz, Desiree Barnes, Alex Evans, Jennifer Close, Elizabeth Pan, Morgan Finkelstein, Andy Estrada, Kate Berner, Charlie Fromstein, Alice Muglia, Hannah Orenstein, Bailey Cox, Kenny Thompson and Jeremy Slevin.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Kayla Tausche, CNBC Washington correspondent. How she’s celebrating: “Close friends, a glass of bourbon, and my balcony on the actual day. My husband and I will celebrate with a long weekend on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.” Read her Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2uuquk4

BIRTHDAYS: Catherine Frazier, senior comms adviser for Sen. Cruz … Katie Zezima, who covers “drugs, guns, gambling & vice,” for WaPo, per her Twitter … former U.S. Treasurer Rosie Rios … Seth Bringman is 36 … David L. Wade … Reuters’ Mike Stone … Politico’s Caitlin O’Connell, Jessica Cuellar, Collin Greene and William Hackney … German Chancellor Angela Merkel is 63 … Kyle Dropp, co-founder and chief research officer at Morning Consult, is 31 … Opal Vadhan of HRC HQ (hat tip: Nick Merrill) … coach Kathy Kemper, a Washington fixture who hosts all sorts of gatherings with admin. officials, lawmakers and diplomats (h/t Juliet Eilperin) … Stacy Helen Schusterman (h/t Jewish Insider) … Axios’ Caitlin Owens … Eeda Wallbank … Ben Deutsch … Jon Graham … Cathie Levine Isay … Jon Monger … Jonathan Lee … Laura MacInnis … Rep. Katherine M. Clark (D-Mass.) is 54 … Matt Berger, senior adviser for strategic comms at Hillel International …

… Anna Bross, senior director of comms at The Atlantic … Andy Barr … Steve Spinner, founder and CEO of RevUp, the campaign fundraising software firm … Mercury’s Caitlin Klevorick … Ben Shannon, a manager in the health care practice at Burson-Marsteller in D.C. who formerly held multiple roles at HHS in the Obama Administration and worked on President Obama’s reelection campaign (h/ts Fabien Levy and Ben Chang) … Politico Europe’s Lawrence Wakefield … Dan Comstock is 33 … David Vandivier … Dani Simons … Shannan Butler Adler … Ben Softy … Sara Clinton Lowenstine … Steph Anderson … Cat Gross … Carter Baer … David A. Steinberg … Annabel Ascher … Myrna Lim … Shell’s Marnie Funk … Chris Buki, senior LA in House T&I Chairman Bill Shuster’s personal office, is 28 (h/t Walt Roberts) … Caroline Koss … Suzy Wagner … Nicole Tarbet … Bashir Rostom … Lizzie Cooper … Evi Wareka … Susan Kennedy … Rich Judge … Tony Sheehen (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

****** A message from the National Retail Federation: The overwhelming majority of retailers are small businesses, with more than 98% of all retail companies employing fewer than 50 people. While small in size, their voices are loud and clear when fighting to be heard on decisions and policies that impact their businesses and the customers they serve every day. Hear more industry stories on NRF’s Retail Gets Real podcast. ******

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‘You’re setting people up for failure’: Castro allies rail against Dem primary rules

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/youre-setting-people-up-for-failure-castro-allies-rail-against-dem-primary-rules/

‘You’re setting people up for failure’: Castro allies rail against Dem primary rules

Julian Castro dropped out of the 2020 presidential race Thursday. | David Becker/Getty Images

Julián Castro launched his long-shot bid nearly a year ago in his native San Antonio, hoping to excite a diverse coalition of voters who could power him to the White House.

When he bowed out of the race Thursday, his allies expressed frustration that he was prevented from doing so, casting him as a victim of a primary process that inhibits candidates of color. In interviews, a half-dozen former aides and allies cast the first major Latino candidate in the 2020 race as a casualty of a system that already felled California Sen. Kamala Harris and is keepingNew Jersey Sen. Cory Booker from gaining traction.

“How you fare in Iowa and New Hampshire sets the tone for how your campaign continues, and when you have these two states that in no way represent the diversity of the Democratic Party, it makes it very difficult for minority candidates to get momentum,” said Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa, who noted the impact a campaign’s momentum — or lack thereof — has on fundraising, polling and media coverage.

“If you’ve got people like Booker and Kamala Harris and Castro campaigning in places like Texas, California and South Carolina early on, they’re gonna get momentum,” he argued. “They’re gonna get well known. They’re gonna start raising money. These were high-quality candidates and people who have credentials, who have a history of public service, who are smart, who have ideas and who I think represent where we’re at as a party on the issues important to Americans.”

With some two dozen candidates all vying for the Democratic nomination and party rules that emphasized national and early-state polling and grassroots fundraising to determine who could qualify for the sanctioned debates, Castro’s campaign had an uphill climb, some argued.

Black voters cast a majority of the Democratic primary vote in South Carolina and Hispanic or Latino voters make up a third of the population in Nevada. But the other two early states are overwhelmingly white.

Struggling to keep pace with his rivals in fundraising, Castro lacked the infrastructure and resources of the other Texan in the race, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who ended his campaign in November.

Castro saw his only polling bump when the two Texans clashed over immigration policy at the first debate in June, hitting 4 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post survey days later. In every other approved national and early-state poll released in 2019, however, Castro sat at 2 percent or less.

He cast himself as a voice for marginalized communities, releasing detailed policies on immigration, policing, lead exposure, indigenous communities, people with disabilities and animals while also meeting with inmates and touring a Las Vegas flood tunnel where homeless people seek shelter.

“Some of the people we targeted are people who literally don’t ever vote and could never get included in the political process, people like homeless people,” said a former aide who was laid off when the campaign shuttered its staff in New Hampshire and South Carolina to prioritize Iowa and Nevada.

“It’s tough because in places like Nevada, they rarely poll,” the ex-aide added. “The other issue is polling has always historically underpolled people of color and poor people, people who don’t have landlines. So when you make that system, so when the DNC basically says, ‘Oh, all right, this is how people are gonna qualify,’ you’re setting people up for failure.”

Mayra Macías, executive director of Latino Victory Fund, a progressive PAC that seeks to increase Latino political power and that endorsed Castro in August, said in her experience dealing with media, Castro’s candidacy was often written off. In her estimation, Castro fell victim to an electability argument that rewarded poll leaders in Iowa and New Hampshire with even higher polling and additional media coverage.

Castro never got significant media attention or polled above 2 percent in the first two early states.

“The bulk of the interviews that we’ve had have felt like almost a moratorium since Day One — folks bringing up a million and one reasons why his campaign wasn’t gonna be viable,” Macías lamented. “The mainstream coverage — or lack thereof — that his campaign received was a big factor, particularly because the campaign doesn’t have the resources as other campaigns do to get their message out there to the American people, so a lot of the campaign’s ability to reach out to folks really did depend on this earned media.”

Colin Strother, a Texas Democratic strategist who once advised Castro, said the system seems like it was “engineered” to make the primary a three-person race between the “three white septuagenarians” in former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont while preventing diverse candidates like Castro, Harris and Booker from reaching the goal line.

But Castro’s staff is also responsible for his demise, Strother said, blaming the candidate’s senior team for robbing their candidate of the opportunity “to get to Super Tuesday, when brown people and black people are finally gonna get a chance to vote.”

“They knew what the process was. At the end of the day, you’ve got to have a strategy to give your candidate a shot, and Julián’s staff didn’t,” he said. “They were spending money they shouldn’t have spent and pushing a strategy that they had to have a reasonable assumption wasn’t gonna work.”

Castro’s first campaign stop was Puerto Rico, instead of Iowa or New Hampshire, the traditional early states. And two days after the DNC announced its polling thresholds for the first two debates — thresholds that hinged on performance in the four early states — Castro’s campaign announced a 50-state tour.

The ploy may have been a creative effort to help him clinch 65,000 unique donors since 200 of them each needed to come from at least 20 different states. But the time and resources spent on trips to states like Idaho and Utah could have been used to campaign or advertise in Iowa, Nevada or Super Tuesday states.

After spending more than half a million dollars more than it raised in the third quarter, the campaign entered October with less than $700,000 cash on hand. Later that month, Castro warned his supporters that his campaign needed $800,000 to stay alive in the next 10 days to stay alive, emulating a strategy that helped extend the life of Booker’s campaign.

Castro met the self-imposed deadline, but still lacked the resources to sustain an ad campaign that could boost his polling enough to qualify for upcoming debates. He missed the last two in November and December, and the party rejected campaigns’ plea to allow more candidates to debate later this month.

When he was on the debate stage, Castro held his own, winning plaudits on the left for endorsing decriminalizing illegal border crossings, naming Atatiana Jefferson, a black woman who was shot and killed by a police officer in Texas, and mentioning transgender people when talking about abortion access.

“It’s a strong symbol when somebody can literally change the narrative on a few issues and not have the polling numbers but still the candidates on the stage also go toward that policy,” said another former aide who worked under Castro at HUD. “He pushed the envelope further than black and brown people have seen in a while.”

Castro acknowledged Thursday morning “that it simply isn’t our time” but also signaled that he isn’t leaving the political arena.

Allies say he belongs in the conversation for vice president, highlighting him as a young, progressive minority with executive experience who became mayor of a major city and ran a Cabinet department in the Obama administration.

They note he would be a valuable asset to any Democratic ticket and could see himserving in a Cabinet position under a Democratic administration, running for governor of Texas in 2022 or possibly even president again in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected.

“I’m not afraid to admit that on more than one occasion I’ve asked each and both of those brothers to run for governor,” said Hinojosa, the Texas state party chairman, alluding to Julián and his twin brother, Rep. Joaquin Castro.

But some Democrats warn that challenging Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is a fool’s errand because the state isn’t ready to put a Democrat in the governor’s mansion.

“He wasn’t really getting a lot of traction in Texas,” noted the aide who worked under Castro at HUD. “That’s a good symbol or sign that if you can’t even carry your own territory, how do you push against that narrative, that you’re strong enough or a viable candidate?”

Strother, the Democratic strategist, added that even after O’Rourke dropped out of the presidential race, the Texas Democratic community of donors, activists and elected officials didn’t coalesce behind Castro.

“If he couldn’t count on them in the biggest election of most of our lifetimes and in probably the modern history of the world, then I don’t think that he should expect that they’ll be there for him in a governor’s race,” Strother said, noting Abbott’s popularity and fundraising prowess.

In recent weeks, Castro had begun arguing for a greater focus on diversity on the front end of the primary calendar so that more people of color have more of a say in who ultimately becomes the nominee. No candidates of color this cycle have led pollingin any of the fourearly states.

“A lot of people will point out and say, ‘Oh, but Barack Obama.’ Barack Obama is from Illinois, which is a bordering state to Iowa,” said the former aide who was downsized. “People in bordering states tend to do well, especially when you start sending volunteers. Right over the border isn’t that far. You talk about one exclusion, one exception. That’s not the rule. We have a lot of work to do as a Democratic Party to uplift our candidates [of color].”

Hinojosa, himself a Democratic Party leader, expressed frustration that the party’s system allowed a now-former mayor in Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., to become a front-runner at the expense of more qualified candidates of color.

“I don’t want to put down Pete Buttigieg, but give me a break. This guy never got more than 8,000 votes in any election,” Hinojosa said. “He’s a front-runner in Iowa versus these three other individuals? What the hell does that tell you?”

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