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#that itself was like 7 hours total considering delays
malkon-dova · 2 months
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finished driving home after being on the road for 19 hours
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usafphantom2 · 2 years
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Lockheed next to another billionaire contract for the F-35
Diego Alves By Diego Alves 07/26/2022 - 10:00 AM in Military
Lockheed Martin Corp.'s next megacontract for the production of several hundred F-35 jets will be worth about $30 billion, according to a defense officer involved in the negotiations. However, the total number of fighter jets purchased was affected by inflation and delays related to Covid.
The exact number of next generation poachers included in the agreement will be provided as soon as the contract is definitively granted - which may occur this summer or early autumn - although there is still a lot of work to reach this point, said the officer, who asked not to be identified while waiting for the completion of the hiring process.
The Pentagon announced last week that it has reached a preliminary agreement with Lockheed Martin on what are now 375 aircraft planned for the 15th to 17th production contracts. This is a reduction of a potential 485 listed in February 2019, before the start of negotiations, and 404 in April 2019, according to a memorandum of decision by interim acquisition head Stacy Cummings.
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More than 760 F-35 fighters have been delivered. The world fleet has already accumulated more than 480,000 flight hours, 1,560 pilots and 11,680 maintainers. Illustrative image.
Lockheed Martin spokeswoman Laura Siebert said in an email that "the quantities of each contract are determined by our customers to meet their mission planning needs and budget requirements".
The then manager of the F-35 government program, Lieutenant General Eric Fick, told reporters in March that the cost per jet of the next batch would increase.
"I think it's likely that we will see costs rise, tail-by-tail," he said. "There are some very strong headwinds that we are working to combat," such as Covid-related production cost increases, supply chain interruptions and inflation, he added. "We just don't have that much money."
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The 5th generation fighter has been consolidating itself as a standard fighter in the West. Illustrative image.
Since Fick's comments, the F-35 Joint Program Office and Lockheed Martin "has made significant progress in the negotiations," Pentagon spokesman Russell Goemaere said in a statement.
The program office "considered the actual production costs during the Covid-19 pandemic and updated the information regarding inflation, which resulted in smaller quantities," he said. The Pentagon is also putting “more priority on investments in support to improve the readiness of the F-35,” he said.
The Government Accountability Office earlier this year said that F-35 readiness rates for the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps have improved since 2019, but are still below the program's goals. The aircraft could fly and carry out all its assigned missions 39% of the time in 2020 before falling to 38% in fiscal year 2021. This falls far short of the goals of 72% for the Air Force and 75% for the Navy and Marines.
Tags: Military AviationF-35 Lightning IILockheed MartinMarinesU.S. NavyUSAF - United States Air Force / U.S. Air Force
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meetmeatthecoda · 3 years
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Now that I’ve had some time to cry & mourn & actually think about that horrendous excuse for television... I have... some thoughts.
Firstly, the pace of that episode was insane. I mean, the season itself felt like we were slowly & tortuously hacking our way through a tangled rain forest, trying desperately to see the forest for the trees, but instead stuck cutting vines & branches down one by one... until we got to that finale, which felt comparatively like finally cutting away all the dense foliage only to immediately fall off a fucking cliff. You could just tell they were using the least amount of dialogue they could to move through so many weird emotions at fucking breakneck speed. I mean there was... the brief aftermath in Latvia, the 4 second plane ride to re-introduce Red’s illness after how many eps, Liz’s 3 second long recuperation, the awkward attempt at humor with the helium followed by a crash landing into solemnity at Red’s talk with Cooper, the abrupt & unsatisfying discussion with Red & Liz where he makes his rEqUESt, all the different “heartfelt” one-on-ones with Liz’s people, the fucking forced af “romance” with K**nler, the shoe-horned “chance meeting” with Beth Ryker, the most Agnes has ever talked in the history of ever, the weirdly morbid & fucking heartbreaking walk in the park, the choppy restaurant scene, to the unmentionable... end event. It went all over the place, which is very unlike TBL imo, which usually seems to stick to a theme or emotional center for an entire episode, whether blacklister or mythology driven. I think it was painfully clear how poor their planning was (when they have literally no excuse bc they knew this was coming the whole season???) & just how much shit they were trying to squeeze into one episode.
Secondly - & this may seem obvious, but I think it’s worth talking about anyway - Liz should have gotten her answers. And I’m not just saying this as a Lizzington shipper (I mean, mostly I am, but there are other reasons also!) Primarily, I think bc... literally everyone expected them. Not just bc they were advertised (it’s certainly not the first time they’ve delighted in false advertising in promos when it comes to the all-important AnSwErS) but bc THEY MADE SURE EVERYONE KNEW BEFOREHAND THAT IT WAS MEGAN’S LAST EP. It might have been mildly acceptable to play coy for yet another season finale IF she was coming back in some capacity later to eventually wrap things up, but - given that they fucking slammed the door on that possibility - THEY SHOULD HAVE GIVEN US ANSWERS. I don’t think anyone considered the possibility that they would KILL her & NOT give us answers bc it makes no fucking sense. Additionally, Liz should have gotten her answers simply bc SHE!! DESERVED!! THEM!! They’re literally the thing she’s been fighting for for eight seasons & she fucking died without them? WTF??? But, most importantly to us Lizzington shippers, Liz not getting her answers ruined the park fantasy. I think we all imagined (BC IT WAS MEGAN’S LAST EP) that Red & Liz would finally talk & Red would give her the answers she wanted. I think we all expected from the (misleading) promo that he would make some sense out of the potentially jumbled memories/visions (?) from 8.21 &, most importantly, there would be SOME KIND OF EMOTIONAL TURNING POINT, SOME CATHARSIS, AN UNDERSTANDING & RENEWED LOVE BETWEEN THEM DRIVEN BY THE AFOREMENTIONED REVELATIONS (& LOVE OF WHATEVER KIND, MIND YOU, WE WEREN’T PICKY, JUST SOMETHING FOUNDED ON RECONCILIATION & PEACE.) But - bc they denied us that - Liz was still in the dark & waiting on answers for the entire ep, unable to forgive or reconnect with her true feelings for Red (whatever you believe them to be) & this made her reaction to Red’s rEqUeSt ring very hollow & detached, the whole park bench conversation stilted & awkward (on Liz’s end) & - THE WORST PART - it made the whole park fantasy feel FALSE. It cheapened it. Like she was just indulging him, letting him walk with her & play with Agnes & enjoy one more day of life before she indifferently killed him. The one thing we expected to get, should have gotten, & THOUGHT WE WOULD HAVE NO MATTER WHAT ELSE HAPPENED IN THE FINALE was ruined. With the assisted suicide talk beforehand, the almost begrudging acceptance from Liz, the obvious morbid mindset from Red, the song in the background, the context of it all. It put an awful spin we completely didn’t expect on what should have been our beautiful Lizzington park fantasy. And I think that may be the part that hurts the most - the fact that I can only look at gifs of that scene - bc the music & dialogue & context completely undermine what Liz’s fantasy should have been, that she got for just one afternoon, when she was supposed to be happy & at peace with Red & Agnes.
Thirdly, (anyone still there? lolz) the whole “plot” of this episode was fucking nonsensical. Chiefly - & many other people have pointed this out before now - Red would never ask Liz to kill him. I simply call bullshit. No matter how hard they tried to justify it (& boyyyyy, did they try) Red has never wanted Liz to be a killer, criminal, or have to live a life like him. He has canonically said as much. I could maybe buy the whole “taking over his empire” thing as the seasons progressed, but asking Liz to live with the guilt (however slight or delayed) of killing him, after everything they’ve been through together, after she told him she loves him (seasons ago, but the feelings are still there, albeit buried deep)? And thereby launching her (& by extension Agnes) directly into harm’s way as the “new” Concierge of Crime (?), without him there to guide her from the shadows? No way. Bullshit. Also - & @iwouldlovetoeatyourtoast mentioned this first, I believe - the whole idea of it was stupid anyway bc Liz has spent the entire season chasing him, has repeatedly gotten opportunities to take the big shot, & has always been unable to kill him. It wasn’t even an engaging tWiSt to throw in at the very end bc - even when she agreed to do it - we all knew it wouldn’t happen, also bc Megan was the one leaving & not James. So, it wasn’t a surprise when she broke down at the end & said she couldn’t, so wtf was the point?
Fourthly (almost to the end, god this feels good) & this was a huge tell imo - everyone was OOC. Now you might say that’s the bitterness talking & you might be right... but you fucking try & tell me that 1) Red all of a sudden decides he’s ready for death after how long of not accepting it or mentioning it & absolutely must be killed by Liz & no one else within the next 24-48 hours 2) Liz would willingly go along with that for even a second 3) Dembe wouldn’t try his damnedest to talk Red out of assisted suicide in general & especially coercing Liz into doing it 4) Ressler would be the one to fucking figure it out & hightail it out of bed AFTER BEING ON DEATH’S DOOR WITH A BUSTED LUNG & SEPSIS FFS 5) Wolf Man Van Dyke would even know where to find Liz on a random fucking street corner outside a random fucking restaurant 6) Red wouldn’t see him behind Liz taking aim 7) THERE WOULDN’T BE A DECLARATION OF FEELINGS/LOVE CONFESSION BETWEEN RED & LIZ IN THE 14 MILLION OBVIOUS PLACES THERE COULD HAVE BEEN *PRIMARILY AFTER SHE SAYS “I CAN’T DO IT, I DON’T WANT TO” I MEAN, HELLO????? WTF, WHY WASN’T THERE AN “BC I LOVE YOU, I LOVE YOU TOO, LIZZIE” LIKE HOW HARD WOULD THAT HAVE BEEN, IT WAS THE PERFECT PLACE, THE LAST CHANCE, & WE FUCKING DESERVED ITTTTTTTTTTT *ahem* & lastly, & most importantly, & I’m definitely going to cry typing this... 8) if you fucking try to tell me that Red would allow himself to be pulled away from Lizzie’s dead body for a second time by Dembe or anyone else (especially when it was only the stupid task force arriving???) without simply crossing the street to load his gun with trembling fingers, pull the trigger, & join her... you’re fucking crazy.
In conclusion, bc this has gone on long enough, this was just... a hasty, sloppy, rushed, unprepared, careless ending on all fronts, no matter how hard they tried to convince us it was totally-100%-on-purpose-of-course-why-do-you-ask? (And I’m not even touching on the Redarina bait bc fuck that shit.) Like, did anyone else feel like when Red was telling Dembe that he was sure & this was what he wanted & really he’s positive so please stop asking, and when he was explaining things to Liz in almost too much detail, and when he was telling Harold this was absolutely necessary... that it was really the writers trying to convince us? It just felt so sudden & forced & heavy-handed & absurdly preventable & at the same time ridiculously unstoppable... I mean, look, whatever drama clearly went on behind the scenes? I think we can all agree that they did a terrible, awful, shit-tastic job on all fronts. And it’s just such a shame that that’s how it ended 💔
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miraclekittyandbug · 3 years
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Ten Questions With a Twist Chapter 6
I. Cannot. TELL you how sorry I am for the delay. It has been a crazy couple of days, but I’m about to post the two final chapters of Ten Questions With A Twist!
~~~~~~~~~~~~
~ Chapter 1 ~ Chapter 2 ~ Chapter 3 ~ Chapter 4 ~ Chapter 5 ~ This Chapter ~ Chapter 7 ~
“Hey, Marinette!” Adrien called, waving frantically at the bluenette. Classes had just ended and he wanted to be sure to catch her before she left in a hurry.
Marinette turned and saw Adrien there, red in the face. “Hey Adrien. Are you okay? Did you just… run to find me?”
“Umm… How many more of those questions do you have?” Adrien deliberately didn’t answer the question, for fear of seeming like the desperate mess he had turned into. “You know, from that Black Cat guy?”
A light of comprehension shone behind her eyes, “Oh, those. Just a few. I’m really sorry if they were too invasive or anything. I can always tell him it was a bad idea.”
“No! Actually, I think it’s kind of a fun idea. I’d like to answer the rest of them for you.”
“Oh! That would be great!” She put her backpack on the ground and started digging through it to find the list, a formality at this point, as she had already memorized the questions.
“Why don’t we hang out for a bit? We could go back to your place and answer these questions. Maybe play some Mecha Strike? That good luck charm you gave me might even help me beat you.” Adrien wiggled his eyebrows and Marinette blushed, but laughed. 
“I’m not sure it’s that lucky, but it sounds like fun.” Her eyes widened, “Actually, could you give me just a little bit of time to clean up my room first? It’s in a pretty embarrassing state right now. Meet me at the bakery in twenty minutes?”
“Sounds good P- pal.” Adrien caught himself. He was about to call her Princess, but that would give him away. He had a challenge to win, after all.
It took about fifteen minutes to convince the Gorilla to cover for him, not too difficult to do considering he was supposed to take Adrien to his Chinese lessons directly after school. Adrien simply reminded the Gorilla that a conversation in Chinese with Mrs. Dupain-Cheng was a very practical application of the information he already knew so well. They agreed that he would pick him up from the Dupain-Cheng bakery in about two hours.
Adrien made his way, slowly, to the bakery. 
The bakery, being right across the street from the school, and having such delicious treats, was very busy. Adrien waited dutifully in line and when he got to the counter, Sabine greeted him warmly. He responded in Chinese, explaining that the only way he had talked his bodyguard into letting him come was to promise to practice his Chinese. Sabine smiled and ushered him to the back. She pointed him to the staircase and told him, in Chinese, to follow it until he reached Marinette’s room, and that there would be snacks up there for the both of them. 
Now, at this point, Adrien knew for a fact he was in love with this girl. But if there had been even a sliver of doubt in his mind, it all evaporated when he lifted the hatch to Marinette’s room. 
She must have done a wonderful job cleaning, because apart from some half-finished sewing on a desk and a few balls of yarn on her bed, Marinette’s room was spotless. But that wasn’t what caught his eye. Leaning over her computer, attempting to plug in the game console, Marinette was humming contentedly with a cookie in her mouth. The picture of it all was so endearing, Adrien hated to alert her to his presence. However, he thought it might be creepy if she were to turn around and find him staring, so he cleared his throat.
Marinette made a noise that could only be described as a squeak, and bit down on the cookie, causing a portion of it to fall to the floor. “Adrien! I didn’t see you there! Come on in, I’ve got snacks!”
He climbed the final steps into her room and reached for a cookie, “Don’t mind if I do.”
Once Marinette had plugged in the console correctly and booted up the game, they chose their players and began. It didn’t take long for Marinette to secure a lead, so Adrien thought a distraction was in order.
“So what about those questions?”
Marinette was silent for a moment before speaking, “I know you’re just trying to distract me. But to prove a point, I will ask these questions AND win this round at the same time. Just watch.”
“Jeez, B- Marinette, that’s pretty harsh,” he said, playfully. He was learning that it would be very difficult to refrain from calling her by her nicknames. “Won’t you go easy on me? Please?” Adrien made puppy dog eyes at the screen, leaning forward so that she would hopefully catch a glimpse of his pouty lips and fast blinking eyes. Not two minutes later, he flung himself back into his seat, having been defeated. 
Marinette placed her controller onto the desk in front of them, flashing him a sympathetic look. “And I wasn’t even distracted with those questions.”
“Alright,” Adrien relented, “What are they?”
“Okay, well, the question that seemed to make you sick might not be a good one to start off with…”
Adrien remembered his odd behavior earlier, and how stupid he had been to not see it sooner. “No, really, I’m fine. Shoot!”
“Okay, what’s your dream job?”
Adrien pretended to think, as if this question were a surprise to him, “I’d like to be a stay at home dad one day.”
“That’s so sweet! I’d like to be a designer one day. Have my own fashion line, company, that kind of thing. What’s your favorite movie?”
“The Princess Bride.”
“Isn’t that a bit of a chick flick?”
“There’s sword fighting and pirates and impossible odds! And anyway, what’s wrong with chick flicks?”
Marinette quickly defended herself, “There’s nothing wrong with chick flicks, I guess I pegged you as more of a studio Ghibli guy.”
Goodness, it had been a year or two since his last binge of those movies, “Oh, studio Ghibli is amazing! But still, there’s nothing like Wesley rolling down a hill screaming ‘As you wish’ only for Buttercup to fling herself down with him.”
Marinette started giggling, “I totally forgot about that part! Oh, I’ll have to rewatch that movie sometime soon. Favorite dessert?”
“Easy, the macarons from your parents bakery.”
“Really?” Marinette responded, “I’m flattered! What flavor?”
“That passionfruit one is my all time favorite, but that’s only seasonal. I really like any of the fruit ones.”
“Good to know! The other questions are pretty basic. What’s your name?”
Adrien put on a face and spoke in an accent, “My name is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepare to die.”
Marinette laughed and Adrien decided it was the most beautiful sound he had ever heard.
“What school do you go to?”
“Hogwarts.”
She rolled her eyes, “No, seriously.”
Adrien looked at her, eyes calculating, “Is there a reason you want this guy to know all the answers?”
“No!” she crossed her arms and leaned back in her chair, “We just have to give the guy a chance. And anything he doesn’t guess correctly, I don’t have to tell him. So it’s not like I’m giving him all your information or anything.”
“That’s not what I meant,” Adrien said, leaning forward. Marinette blushed as if she knew exactly what he meant, but he continued anyway. “You like this guy, don’t you? You want him to guess correctly so you can go on a date with him!”
“What?!” Marinette acted repulsed by this, but her blush only deepened, “No way! He’s just a friend!”
“But you want to give him a chance.”
She seemed to hold her breath, making her face even redder, but then released and deflated, placing her head in her hands with her elbows on her knees. “I don’t know. Honestly, I probably like this guy a lot, I’ve just been so caught up on… this other guy for so long. It’s so confusing.”
“Have you thought about meeting him? You know, in person?”
Marinette lifted her head and looked at the ceiling instead, “Yeah. I have. I mean, this black cat guy is my best friend. We tell each other everything. He’s the only one who knows about this big part of my life and I rely on him for so much. He’s so sweet and really understanding about me wanting to keep our real names out of it.”
Adrien winced, but Marinette didn’t notice. He felt awful. She had always been so adamant that they not know each other’s identities. But he just happened upon it! One coincidence led to another, led to some questions, led to a point where he couldn’t turn back. “So you don’t want him to know who you are?”
“Well I wouldn’t say that.” Her hand went to the back of her neck and she rubbed it anxiously. “If we somehow found out, I’d honestly be thrilled. I even went so far as to ask Master F- forum.” Marinette blanched, looking Adrien directly in the eye, “Our forum master. The guy that runs the forum that we chat on. I went so far as to ask him about meeting in real life and he just smiled. He said ‘The wheels of life are in motion, but you cannot determine the speed’. I have no idea what that means, but he’s notoriously cryptic.” Adrien was going to say something, but Marinette was on a rant, so he sat back and listened. “And it’s like, he’s wanted to know for a really long time. Ever since the beginning. But I was so cautious, I said no. I thought it would be dangerous for us and our families.” 
“And you need to be careful, with strangers on the internet.”
“Exactly! Strangers on the internet. But then, almost immediately, I trusted him. Right away, we were inseparable. And now that I want to know, I don’t know what to do.”
Adrien couldn’t help the smile that plastered itself on his face. “Well, Marinette, I’m sure things will work out. And you never know! Maybe he’s a really good guesser.”
“Maybe.” She said, obviously glad to have gotten some things off her chest. “In the meantime, let’s sneak down and grab you a couple of macarons.”
~ Chapter 1 ~ Chapter 2 ~ Chapter 3 ~ Chapter 4 ~ Chapter 5 ~ This Chapter ~ Chapter 7 ~
Next chapter should be up by the time you read this far!
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church-history · 3 years
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Iniquis Afflictisque:
Papal Encyclical On the Persecution of the Church in Mexico
Pope Pius XI - 1926
To the Venerable Brethren, the Patriarchs, Primates, Archbishops, Bishops, and other Ordinaries in Peace and Communion with the Apostolic See.
In speaking to the Sacred College of Cardinals at the Consistory of last December, We pointed out that there existed no hope or possibility of relief from the sad and unjust conditions under which the Catholic religion exists today in Mexico except it be by a “special act of Divine Mercy.” You, Venerable Brothers, did not delay to make your own and approve Our convictions and Our wishes in this regard, made known to you on so many occasions, for by every means within your power you urged all the faithful committed to your pastoral care to implore by instant prayers the Divine Founder of the Church that He bring some relief from the heavy burden of these great evils.
2. We designedly use the words “the heavy burden of these great evils” for certain of Our children, deserters from the army of Jesus Christ and enemies of the Common Father of all, have ordered and are continuing up to the present hour a cruel persecution against their own brethren, Our most beloved children of Mexico. If in the first centuries of our era and at other periods in history Christians were treated in a more barbarous fashion than now, certainly in no place or at no time has it happened before that a small group of men has so outraged the rights of God and of the Church as they are now doing in Mexico, and this without the slightest regard for the past glories of their country, with no feelings of pity for their fellow-citizens. They have also done away with the liberties of the majority and in such a clever way that they have been able to clothe their lawless actions with the semblance of legality.
3. Naturally, We do not wish that either you or the faithful should fail to receive from Us a solemn testimonial of Our gratitude for the prayers which, according to Our intention were poured forth in private and at public functions. It is most important, too, that these prayers which have been so powerful an aid to Us should be continued, and even increased, with renewed fervor. It is assuredly not in the power of man to control the course of events or of history, nor can he direct them as he may desire to the welfare of society by changing either the minds or hearts of his fellow-men. Such action, however, is well within the power of God, for He without doubt can put an end, if He so desires, to persecutions of this kind. Nor must you conclude, Venerable Brothers, that all your prayers have been in vain simply because the Mexican Government, impelled by its fanatical hatred of religion, continued to enforce more harshly and violently from day to day its unjust laws. The truth is that the clergy and the great majority of the faithful have been so strengthened in their longsuffering resistance to these laws by such an abundant shower of divine grace that they have been enabled thereby to give a glorious example of heroism. They have justly merited, too, that We, in a solemn document executed by Our Apostolic authority, should make known this fortitude to the whole Catholic world.
4. Last month on the occasion of the beatification of many martyrs of the French Revolution, spontaneously the Catholics of Mexico came to Our thoughts, for they, like those martyrs, have remained firm in their resolution to resist in all patience the unreasonable behests and commands of their persecutors rather than cut themselves off from the unity of the Church or refuse obedience to this Apostolic See. Marvelous indeed is the glory of the Divine Spouse of Christ who, through the course of the centuries, can depend, without fail, upon a brave and generous offspring ever ready to suffer prisons, stripes, and even death itself for the holy liberty of the Church!
5. It is scarcely necessary, Venerable Brothers, to go back very far in order to narrate the sad calamities which have fallen upon the Church of Mexico. It is sufficient to recall that the frequent revolutions of modern times have ended in the majority of cases in trials for the Church and persecutions of religion. Both in 1914 and in 1915 men who seemed veritably inspired by the barbarism of former days persecuted the clergy, both secular and regular, and the sisters. They rose up against holy places and every object used in divine worship and so ferocious were they that no injury, no ignominy, no violence was too great to satisfy their persecuting mania.
6. Referring now to certain notorious facts concerning which We have already raised Our voice in solemn protest and which even the daily press recorded at great length, there is no need to take up much space in telling you of certain deplorable events which occurred even in the very recent past with reference to Our Apostolic Delegates to Mexico. Without the slightest regard for justice, for solemn promises given, or for humanity itself, one of these Apostolic Delegates was driven out of the country; another, who because of illness had left the Republic for a short time, was forbidden to return, and the third was also treated in a most unfriendly manner and forced to leave. Surely there is no one who cannot understand that such acts as these, committed against illustrious personages who were both ready and willing to bring about peace, must be construed as a great affront to their dignity as Archbishops, to the high office which they filled, and particularly to Our authority which they represented.
7. Unquestionably the events just cited are grave and deplorable. But the examples of despotic power which We will now pass in review, Venerable Brothers, are beyond all compare, contrary to the rights of the Church, and most injurious as well to the Catholics of Mexico.
8. In the first place, let us examine the law of 1917, known as the “Political Constitution” of the federated republic of Mexico. For our present purposes it is sufficient to point out that after declaring the separation of Church and State the Constitution refuses to recognize in the Church, as if she were an individual devoid of any civil status, all her existing rights and interdicts to her the ac quisition of any rights whatsoever in the future. The civil authority is given the right to interfere in matters of divine worship and in the external discipline of the Church. Priests are put on the level of professional men and of laborers but with this important difference, that they must be not only Mexicans by birth and cannot exceed a certain number specified by law, but are at the same time deprived of all civil and political rights. They are thus placed in the same class with criminals and the insane. Moreover, priests not only must inform the civil authorities but also a commission of ten citizens whenever they take possession of a church or are transferred to another mission. The vows of religious, religious orders, and religious congregations are outlawed in Mexico. Public divine worship is forbidden unless it take place within the confines of a church and is carried on under the watchful eye of the Government. All church buildings have been declared the property of the state. Episcopal residences, diocesan offices, seminaries, religious houses, hospitals, and all charitable institutions have been taken away from the Church and handed over to the state. As a matter of fact, the Church can no longer own property of any kind. Everything that it possessed at the period when this law was passed has now become the property of the state. Every citizen, moreover, has the right to denounce before the law any person whom he thinks is holding in his own name property for the Church. All that is required in order to make such action legal is a mere presumption of guilt. Priests are not allowed by law to inherit property of any kind except it be from persons closely related to them by blood. With reference to marriage, the power of the Church is not recognized. Every marriage between Catholics is considered valid if contracted validly according to the prescriptions of the civil code.
9. Education has been declared free, but with these important restrictions: both priests and religious are forbidden to open or to conduct elementary schools. It is not permitted to teach children their religion even in a private school. Diplomas or degrees conferred by private schools under control of the Church possess no legal value and are not recognized by the state. Certainly, Venerable Brothers, the men who originated, approved, and gave their sanction to such a law either are totally ignorant of what rights pertain jure divino to the Church as a perfect society, established as the ordinary means of salvation for mankind by Jesus Christ, Our Redeemer and King, to which He gave the full liberty of fulfilling her mission on earth (such ignorance seems incredible today after twenty centuries of Christianity and especially in a Catholic nation and among men who have been baptized, unless in their pride and foolishness they believe themselves able to undermine and destroy the “House of the Lord which has been solidly constructed and strongly built on the living rock”) or they have been motivated by an insane hatred to attempt anything within their power in order to harm the Church. How was it possible for the Archbishops and Bishops of Mexico to remain silent in the face of such odious laws?
10. Immediately after their publication the hierarchy of Mexico protested in kind but firm terms against these laws, protests which Our Immediate Predecessor ratified, which were approved as well by the whole hierarchies of other countries, as well as by a great majority of individual bishops from all over the world, and which finally were confimed even by Us in a letter of consolation of the date of the second of February, 1926, which We addressed to the Bishops of Mexico. The Bishops hoped that those in charge of the Government, after the first outburst of hatred, would have appreciated the damage and danger which would accrue to the vast majority of the people from the enforcement of those articles of the Constitution restrictive of the liberty of the Church and that, therefore, out of a desire to preserve peace they would not insist on enforcing these articles to the letter, or would enforce them only up to a certain point, thus leaving open the possibility of a modus vivendi, at least for the time being.
11. In spite of the extreme patience exhibited in these circumstances by both the clergy and laity, an attitude which was the result of the Bishops’ exhorting them to moderation in all things, every hope of a return to peace and tranquillity was dissipated, and this as a direct result of the law promulgated by the President of the Republic on the second of July, 1926, by virtue of which practically no liberty at all was left the Church. As a matter of fact, the Church was barely allowed to exist. The exercise of the sacred ministry was hedged about by the severest penalties as if it were a crime worthy of capital punishment. It is difficult, Venerable Brothers, to express in language how such perversion of civil authority grieves Us. For whosoever reveres, as all must, God the Creator and Our Beloved Redeemer, whosoever will obey the laws of Holy Mother Church, such a man, We repeat, such a man is looked on as a malefactor, as guilty of a crime; such a man is considered fit only to be deprived of all civil rights; such a man can be thrown into prison along with other criminals. With what justice can We apply to the authors of these enormities the words which Jesus Christ spoke to the leaders of the Jews: “This is your hour, and the power of darkness.” (Luke xxii, 53)
12. The most recent law which has been promulgated as merely an interpretation of the Constitution is as a matter of fact much worse than the original law itself and makes the enforcement of the Constitution much more severe, if not almost intolerable. The President of the Republic and the members of his ministry have insisted with such ferocity on the enforcement of these laws that they do not permit the governors of the different states of the Confederation, the civil authorities, or the military commanders to mitigate in the least the rigors of the persecution of the Catholic Church. Insult, too, is added to persecution. Wicked men have tried to place the Church in a bad light before the people; some, for example, uttering the most brazen lies in public assemblies. But when a Catholic tries to answer them, he is prevented from speaking by catcalls and personal insults hurled at his head. Others use hostile newspapers in order to obscure the truth and to malign “Catholic Action.”
13. If, at the beginning of the persecution, Catholics were able to make a defense of their religion in the public press by means of articles which made clear the truth and answered the lies and errors of their enemies, it is now no longer permitted these citizens, who love their country just as much as other citizens do, to raise their voices in protest. As a matter of fact, they are not even allowed to express their sorrow over the injuries done to the Faith of their fathers and to the liberty of divine worship. We, however, moved profoundly as We are by the consciousness of the duties imposed upon Us by our Apostolic office, will cry out to heaven, Venerable Brothers, so that the whole Catholic world may hear from the lips of the Common Father of all the story of the insane tyranny of the enemies of the Church, on the one hand, and on the other that of the heroic virtue and constancy of the bishops, priests, religious congregations, and laity ot Mexico.
14. All foreign priests and religious men have been expelled from the country. Schools for the religious education of boys and girls have been closed, either because they are known publicly under a religious name or because they happen to possess a statue or some other religious object. Many seminaries likewise, schools, insane asylums, convents, institutions connected with churches have been closed. In practically all the states of the Republic the number of priests who may exercise the sacred ministry has been limited and fixed at the barest minimum. Even these latter are not allowed to exercise their sacred office unless they have beforehand registered with the civil authorities and have obtained permission from them so to function. In certain sections of the country restrictions have been placed on the ministry of priests which, if they were not so sad, would be laughable in the extreme. For example, certain regulations demand that priests must be of an age fixed by law, that they must be civilly married, and they are not allowed to baptize except with flowing water. In one of the states of the Confederation it has been decreed that only one bishop is permitted to live within the territory of said state, by reason of which law two other bishops were constrained to exile themselves from their dioceses. Moreover, because of circumstances imposed upon them by law, some bishops have had to leave their diocese, others have been forced to appear before the courts, several were arrested, and practically all the others live from day to day in imminent danger of being arrested.
15. Again, every Mexican citizen who is engaged in the education of children or of youth, or holds any public office whatsoever, has been ordered to make known publicly whether he accepts the policies of the President and approves of the war which is now being waged on the Catholic Church. The majority of these same individuals were forced, under threat of losing their positions, to take part, together with the army and laboring men, in a parade sponsored by the Regional Confederation of the Workingmen of Mexico, a socialist organization. This parade took place in Mexico City and in other towns of the Republic on the same day. It was followed by impious speeches to the populace. The whole procedure was organized to obtain, by means of these public outcries and the applause of those who took part in it, and by heaping all kinds of abuse on the Church, popular approval of the acts of the President.
16. But the cruel exercise of arbitrary power on the part of the enemies of the Church has not stopped at these acts. Both men and women who defended the rights of the Church and the cause of religion, either in speeches or by distributing leaflets and pamphlets, were hurried before the courts and sent to prison. Again, whole colleges of canons were rushed off to jail, the aged being carried there in their beds. Priests and laymen have been cruelly put to death in the very streets or in the public squares which front the churches. May God grant that the responsible authors of so many grave crimes return soon to their better selves and throw themselves in sorrow and with true contrition on the divine mercy; We are convinced that this is the noble revenge on their murderers which Our children who have been so unjustly put to death are now asking from God.
17. We think it well at this point, Venerable Brothers, to review for you in a few words how the bishops, priests, and faithful of Mexico have organized resistance and “set up a wall for the House of Israel, to stand in battle.” (Ezech. xiii, 5)
18. There cannot be the slightest doubt of the fact that the Mexican hierarchy have unitedly used every means within their power to defend the liberty and good name of the Church. In the first place, they indited a joint pastoral letter to their people in which they proved beyond cavil that the clergy had always acted toward the rulers of the Republic motivated by a love for peace, with prudence and in all patience; that they had even suffered, in a spirit of almost too much tolerance, laws which were unjust; they admonished the faithful, outlining the divine constitution of the Church, that they, too, must always persevere in their religion, in such a way that they shall “obey God rather than men” (Acts v, 19) on every occasion when anyone tries to impose on them laws which are no less contrary to the very idea of law and do not merit the name of law, as they are inimical to the constitution and existence itself of the Church.
19. When the President of the Republic had promulgated his untimely and unjust decree of interpretation of the Constitution, by means of another joint pastoral letter the Bishops protested and pointed out that to accept such a law was nothing less than to desert the Church and hand her over a slave to the civil authorities. Even if this had been done, it was apparent to all that such an act would neither satisfy her persecutors nor stop them in the pursuit of their nefarious intentions. The Bishops in such circumstances preferred to put an end to public religious functions. Therefore, they ordered the complete suspension of every act of public worship which cannot take place without the presence of the clergy, in all the churches of their diocese, beginning the last day of July, on which day the law in question went into effect. Moreover, since the civil authorities had ordered that all the churches must be turned over to the care of laymen, chosen by the mayors of the different municipalities, and could not be held in any manner whatsoever by those who were named or designated for such an office by the bishops or priests, which act transferred the possessions of the churches from the ecclesiastical authority to that of the state, the Bishops practically everywhere interdicted the faithful from accepting a place on such committees bestowed on them by the Government and even from entering a church which was no longer under the control of the Church. In some dioceses, due to difference of time and place, other arrangements were made.
20. In spite of all this, do not think, Venerable Brothers, that the Mexican hierarchy lost any opportunity or occasion by means of which they might do their part in calming popular feelings and bringing about concord despite the fact that they distrusted, or it would be better perhaps to say despaired of, a happy outcome to all these troubles. It is sufficient to recall in this context that the Bishops of Mexico City, who act in the capacity of procurators for their colleagues, wrote a very courteous and respectful letter to the President of the Republic in the interests of the Bishops of Huejutla, who had been arrested in a most outrageous manner and with a great display of armed force, and had been ordered taken to the city of Pachuca. The President replied to this letter by means of a hateful angry screed, a fact now become notorious. Again, when it happened that certain personages, lovers of peace, had spontaneously intervened so as to bring about a conversation between the President and the Archbishop of Morelia and the Bishop of Tabasco, the parties in question talked together for a long time and on many subjects, but with no results. Again, the Bishops debated whether they should ask the House of Representatives for the abrogation of those laws which were against the rights of the Church or if they should continue, as before, their so-called passive resistance to these laws. As a matter of fact, there existed many good reasons which seemed to them to render useless the presentation of such a petition to Congress. However, they did present the petition, which was written by Catholics quite capable of doing so because of their knowledge of law, every word of which was, moreover, weighed by the Bishops themselves with the utmost care. To this petition of the hierarchy there was added, due to the zealous efforts of the members of the Federation for the Defense of Religious Liberty, about which organization We shall have something to say later on in this letter, a great number of signatures of citizens, both men and women.
21. The Bishops had not been wrong in their anticipations of what would take place. Congress rejected the proposed petition almost unanimously, only one voting in favor of it, and the reason they alleged for this act was that the Bishops had been deprived of juridical personality, since they had already appealed in this matter to the Pope and therefore they had proven themselves unwilling to acknowledge the laws of Mexico. Such being the facts, what remained for the Bishops to do if not to decide that, until these unjust laws had been repealed, neither they nor the faithful would change in the slightest the policy which they had adopted? The civil authorities of Mexico, abusing both their power and the really remarkable patience of the people, are now in a position to menace the clergy and the Mexican people with even more severe punishments than those already inflicted. But how are we to overcome and conquer men of this type who are committed to the use of every type of infamy, unless we are willing, as they insist, to conclude an agreement with them which cannot but injure the sacred cause of the liberty of the Church?
22. The clergy have imitated the truly wonderful example of constancy given them by the Bishops and have themselves in turn given no less brilliant an example of fortitude through all the tedious changes of the great conflict. This example of extraordinary virtue on their part has been a great comfort to Us. We have made it known to the whole Catholic world and We praise them because “they are worthy.” (Apoc. iii, 4) And in this special context, when We recall that every imaginable artifice was employed, that all the power and vexatious tactics of our adversaries had but one purpose, to alienate both the clergy and people from their allegiance to the hierarchy and to this Apostolic See, and that despite all this only one or two priests, from among the four thousand, betrayed in a shameful manner their holy office, it certainly seems to Us that there is nothing which We cannot hope for from the Mexican clergy.
23. As a matter of fact, We behold these priests standing shoulder to shoulder, obedient and respectful to the commands of their prelates despite the fact that to obey means in the majority of cases serious dangers for themselves, for they must live from their holy office, and since they are poor and do not themselves possess anything and the Church cannot support them, they are obliged to live bravely in poverty and in misery; they must say Mass in private; they must do all within their power to provide for the spiritual needs of their flocks, to keep alive and increase the flame of piety in those round about them; moreover, by their example, counsels and exhortations, they must lift the thoughts of their fellow citizens to the highest ideals and strengthen their wills so that they, too, will persevere in their passive resistance. Is it any wonder, then, that the wrath and blind hatred of our enemies are directed principally and before all else against the priesthood? The clergy, on their side, have not hesitated to go to prison when ordered, and even to face death itself with serenity and courage. We have heard recently of something which surpasses anything as yet perpetrated under the guise of these wicked laws, and which, as a matter of fact, sounds the very depths of wickedness, for We have learned that certain priests were suddenly set upon while celebrating Mass in their own homes or in the homes of friends, that the Blessed Eucharist was outraged in the basest manner, and the priests themselves carried off to prison.
24. Nor can We praise enough the courageous faithful of Mexico who have understood only too well how important it is for them that a Catholic nation in matters so serious and holy as the worship of God, the liberty of the Church, and the eternal salvation of souls should not depend upon the arbitrary will and audacious acts of a few men, but should be governed under the mercy of God only by laws which are just, which are conformable to natural, divine, and ecclesiastical law.
25. A word of very special praise is due those Catholic organizations, which during all these trying times have stood like soldiers side to side with the clergy. The members of these organiza tions, to the limit of their power, not only have made provisions to maintain and assist their clergy financially, they also watch over and take care of the churches, teach catechism to the children, and like sentinels stand guard to warn the clergy when their ministrations are needed so that no one may be deprived of the help of the priest. What We have just written is true of all these organizations. We wish, however, to say a word in particular about the principal organizations, so that each may know that it is highly ap proved and even praised by the Vicar of Jesus Christ.
26. First of all We mention the Knights of Columbus, an organization which is found in all the states of the Republic and which fortunately is made up of active and industrious members who, because of their practical lives and open profession of the Faith, as well as by their zeal in assisting the Church, have brought great honor upon themselves. This organization promotes two types of activites which are needed now more than ever. In the first place, the National Sodality of Fathers of Families, the program of which is to give a Catholic education to their own children, to protect the rights of Christian parents with regard to education, and in cases where children attend the public schools to provide for them a sound and complete training in their religion. Secondly, the Federation for the Defense of Religious Liberty, which was recently organized when it became clear as the noonday sun that the Church was menaced by a veritable ocean of troubles. This Federation soon spread to all parts of the Republic. Its members attempted, working in harmony and with assiduity, to organize and instruct Catholics so that they would be able to present a united invincible front to the enemy.
27. No less deserving of the Church and the fatherland as the Knights of Columbus have been and still are, We mention two other organizations, each of which has, following its own program, a special relation to what is known as “Catholic Social Action.” One is the Catholic Society of Mexican Youth, and the other, the Union of Catholic Women of Mexico. These two sodalities, over and above the work which is special to each of them, promote and do all they can to have others promote the activities of the above-mentioned Federation for the Defense of Religious Liberty. Without going into details about their work, with pleasure We desire to call to your attention, Venerable Brothers, but a single fact, namely, that all the members of these organizations, both men and women, are so brave that, instead of fleeing danger, they go out in search of it, and even rejoice when it falls to their share to suffer persecution from the enemies of the Church. What a beautiful spectacle this, that is thus given to the world, to angels, and to men! How worthy of eternal praise are such deeds! As a matter of fact, as We have pointed out above, many individuals, members either of the Knights of Columbus, or officers of the Federation, of the Union of Catholic Women of Mexico, or of the Society of Mexican Youth, have been taken to prison handcuffed, through the public streets, surrounded by armed soldiers, locked up in foul jails, harshly treated, and punished with prison sentences or fines. Moreover, Venerable Brothers, and in narrating this We can scarcely keep back Our tears, some of these young men and boys have gladly met death, the rosary in their hands and the name of Christ King on their lips. Young girls, too, who were imprisoned, were criminally outraged, and these acts were deliberately made public in order to intimidate other young women and to cause them the more easily to fail in their duty toward the Church.
28. No one, surely, Venerable Brothers, can hazard a prediction or foresee in imagination the hour when the good God will bring to an end such calamities. We do know this much: The day will come when the Church of Mexico will have respite from this veritable tempest of hatred, for the reason that, according to the words of God “there is no wisdom, there is no prudence, there is no counsel against the Lord” (Prov. xxi, 30) and “the gates of hell shall not prevail” (Matt. xvi, 18) against the Spotless Bride of Christ.
29. The Church which, from the day of Pentecost, has been destined here below to a never-ending life, which went forth from the upper chamber into the world endowed with the gifts and inspirations of the Holy Spirit, what has been her mission during the last twenty centuries and in every country of the world if not, after the example of her Divine Founder, “to go about doing good”? (Acts x, 38) Certainly this work of the Church should have gained for her the love of all men; unfortunately the very contrary has happend as her Divine Master Himself predicted (Matt. x, 17, 25) would be the case. At times the bark of Peter, favored by the winds, goes happily forward; at other times it appears to be swallowed up by the waves and on the point of being lost. Has not this ship always aboard the Divine Pilot who knows when to calm the angry waves and the winds? And who is it but Christ Himself Who alone is all-powerful, who brings it about that every persecution which is launched against the faithful should react to the lasting benefit of the Church? As St. Hilary writes, “it is a prerogative of the Church that she is the vanquisher when she is persecuted, that she captures our intellects when her doctrines are questioned, that she conquers all at the very moment when she is abandoned by all.” (St. Hilary of Poitiers De Trinitate, Bk. VII, No. 4)
30. If those men who now in Mexico persecute their brothers and fellowcitizens for no other reason than that these latter are guilty of keeping the laws of God, would only recall to memory and consider dispassionately the vicissitudes of their country as history reveals them to us, they must recognize and publicly confess that whatever there is of progress, of civilization, of the good and the beautiful, in their country is due solely to the Catholic Church. In fact every man knows that after the introduction of Christianity into Mexico, the priests and religious especially, who are now being persecuted with such cruelty by an ungrateful government, worked without rest and despite all the obstacles placed in their way, on the one hand by the colonists who were moved by greed for gold and on the other by the natives who were still barbarians, to promote greatly in those vast regions both the splendor of the worship of God and the benefits of the Catholic religion, works and institutions of charity, schools and colleges for the education of the people and their instruction in letters, the sciences, both sacred and profane, in the arts and the crafts.
31. One thing more remains for Us to do, Venerable Brothers, namely, to pray and implore Our Lady of Guadalupe, heavenly patroness of the Mexican people, that she pardon all these injuries and especially those which have been committed against her, that she ask of God that peace and concord may return to her people. And if, in the hidden designs of God that day which We so greatly desire is far distant, may she in the meantime console her faithful children of Mexico and strengthen them in their resolve to maintain their liberty by the profession of their Faith.
32. In the meanwhile, as an augury of the grace of God and as proof of Our fatherly love, We bestow from Our heart on you, Venerable Brothers, and especially on those bishops who rule the Church of Mexico, on all your clergy and your people, the Apostolic Blessing.
Given at Rome, at St. Peter’s, on the eighteenth day of November, in the year 1926, the fifth of Our Pontificate.
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shootycatfishgame · 5 years
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Well its done, "Shooty and the Catfish Episode 2: The Spoopies" is finally out in the wild for people to play, why you can even play it yourself for free if you head on over here:   https://visitorsfromdreams.itch.io/shootycatfish-episode2 Truth be told the game has been out for 3 days now and has only been downloaded a grand total of 4 times. It might seem like a discouraging number for sure but its important to remember that this is the second episode of a series, and with the first episode itself only being downloaded a total of 124 times to date (my previous project Hazmat is sitting at 525 downloads and Flatwoods at 849 downloads) its not that surprising. In all honesty im not really expecting the series to really gain any sort of momentum until its fully finished and released as a stand alone product on Steam, and I think thats fair enough. The idea behind the episodic releases was largely so I could get the feedback to improve each episode as the project went along, and I think I have achieved that so far. So I guess you could consider this to be a post mortem. Where did things go right with Episode 2 and where did they go wrong? Well, for where things went right, development started in March and was finished in September so you could say the game had a 7 month development cycle. Looking back at it now due to the length of the episode that actually feels really excessive considering the amount of content in the actual game (which I will come back too) but compared to the first episodes 2 year development cycle it was a huge improvement. I am also pretty happy with how the games set up worked. Episode 1 played it very strait with its single town and non linear dungeon set up taken right from the standard JRPG guidebook. Episode 2 on the other hand was a little more experimental. The opening town was more about establishing a tone then a solid narrative with the Episodes dungeon being where all of the real story telling happens. While im sure this isnt a new idea, its something I havent personally experienced in any turn based RPGs. Sure, its not uncommon to find environmental story telling packed into the game world, but to have every combat encounter also be an NPC that pushes the narrative forward? I think the results were perhaps a little wordy and at times a bit on the nose, but for the most part I think it works. Episode 1 had a very non linear dungeon which worked well but it was nice working on something a little more directed as well which Episode 2's layout definitely was.
Im really happy without how the quality of life improvements in the game turned out, introducing new elements like coded doors for different kinds of keys and giving you the option of finishing the game without fighting the optional boss which, you know, actually made that optional boss optional. In fact I was so happy with those changes I went back and patched them into Episode 1 only a couple weeks back.
So where did things go wrong?
Well, to be honest, the only thing I wasnt happy with was how long it took me to get this game out. Like I said, 7 months is a big improvement compared to 2 years, but its still a lot longer than it should have been. Some of this was definitely my fault... as mentioned above there was a big push to have all the narrative put into the dungeon, but the down side of that was that it meant there was a lot more meaningful dialogue in this Episode than there was in Episode 1. The previous Episodes dialogue was mostly made up of silly gags from goofy NPCs in town, but for this Episode I had to create that ALONG with the more serious and narrative driven dialogue found in the dungeon itself. There were several weeks where I didnt touch the game at all because it all seemed so daunting. Ironically when I finally forced myself to write those sections it ended up only taking me 2 nights, so really I spent weeks if not months putting the project off out of fear of something that ended up taking collectively 6 hours tops.
So yeah... that explains some of the delay, but not all of it. The second issue that struck me during the development of this Episode was my own insecurity. The first 5 months this games development were during a time when I didnt know what was happening with my job,  I was very nervous, and with my fiance being processed through the notoriously awful Australian immigration system I was also pretty damn scared. The last few weeks of those 5 months was a massive period of crunch at work for a huge project and then immediately it was over... and I was out of a job. If I had known for sure that this was how the gig would have turned out I would have spent more of my free time trying to develop a following. I might have even been able to get my Patreon into a state that could have helped me out financially a little, or atleast thats what I liked to think I would have done, but at the time I didnt have the confidence or energy to do so. This was followed with me taking up a freelance project (well quite a few actually but most were great) which while it has definitely paid my bills over the last couple of months, it has also left me exhausted, emotionally and physically. All of this slowed down the development of the game, and perhaps even more importantly had a large impact on the writing of it.
"Shooty and the Catfish: Episode 2 - The Spoopies" deals with some pretty heavy themes, with suicide and the treatment of suicide victims being chief amoung them. Then on top of that I realised half way through development that while the idea of an office building full of ghosts of asshole business people who commited suicide after a stock market crash does have some comedic value (poor taste as it may be), the gameplay loop of systematically killing every single one of those ghosts has absolutely no comedic value and is quite possibly the most morbid thing I had ever created... Ironically not even on purpose... I found myself in a situation where I accidently created a "suicide victims ghost murder simulator". While im no stranger to creating offensive or disturbing content, for once this wasnt my intention but rather the result of the games story concept clashing with the established gameplay mechanics... and realising too late. What do you do when you set out to make a dumb comedy about 2 wise cracking idiots that kill monsters for money and instead... well here we are. What a mess... Im not going to pretend that the game handles the subject of suicide well and I also dont think I ever could approach the subject in a satisfying way. If its treatment upsets or offends anyone I think thats completely understandable and any critism I receive because of it is completely justified. Something I do think that is a positive to come out of all this however is this is the first game project I have worked on that I feel, to me personally, is a piece of "art". Well I mean... I think all games are art, but playing through this game now I can see the struggle I was going through developing it reflected through the characters and through the writing. Its almost like playing through 5 months of my own loose streamed consciousness. My stress, my depression, my insecurity, my fear, my defeatism, its all there. The game has tonal whiplash of morbid  nihilism and stupid dumb goofy comedy in a way I havent been able to pull of since my 2014 film Spilt Coffee (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp2HSx_f9WE) which ironically serves as a prequel to this game and was created at a time of my life when again, I felt quite trapped. Episode 2 might be the worst game I have made to a lot of people and thats totally fair, but I think its also my most personal and sincere for what thats worth. Thats it for this update, I have gone on long enough as it is. So where do we go from here? Well... I made myself and my players a promise at the end of Episode 2, and thats that Episode 3 will be a fun light hearted adventure. I think after this games development I really need it, and hopefully the contents of this depressing Episode doesnt stop those players from coming with me on that adventure too. If your interested in helping me support my indie game development then why not check out my Patreon? https://www.patreon.com/VisitorsFromDreams Every little bit helps ~ <3
Thanks again to everyone who has taken the time to read this post.
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Waffle and Kae Joint Recap 8/16
Hello Tumblr! We still exist! Children are hard for free time...amiright? GET READY FOR AN ACTUAL RECAP!
Waffle So we both decided that life was far too hard at the moment and it was time to give our child to the wolves for the weekend and run to NYC. (Not really, we dropped her with Gramma and Grandpa and came to down to see Noirtown) As long as we were sneaking away, why not stop by the McKittrick. We flew in Friday afternoon and had a drink at Gallow Green before heading down to queue up. There was a surprise happy hour in the Manderley so we were let in early which is always a pleasant surprise. We found some friends inside to pass the time with before the first elevator was eventually called. I have to say what an adorable and charming pair Elizabeth and Joseph make in the bar. They have great chemistry and are just a joy to watch.
Once inside, I headed to the ballroom which was in mid-scene. It was actually the only ballroom I would see in my 2 shows. Jenna’s Sexy witch did a great job of sucking me in with her creepy and seductive eye contact. I wasn’t sure where I was going to go but by the end of the ballroom, the glances and smirks had me hooked. I followed her up and got a Banquo couch duet all to myself. Jenna’s dancing is next level! This dance easily ranks in my top McKittrick dances. She quickly and gracefully disappeared behind the couch. The dance is breathtaking when done well and Jenna seemed to float through the air at every lift. When she was coming down from the bookshelf for the final kiss, she planted her foot on the couch in a way that was strong and invoked thoughts of a wild animal pouncing on her prey. She still clearly commanded the scene and Jack’s Banquo looked dopey and fooled until the final kiss.
The crowds have certainly gotten bolder and pushier the last few years. I would wager that some of it is what I refer to as the Shanghai effect. The cultural norms in Shanghai are much different than in New York. Personal space and following distances are much closer and fan culture is much more intense. The crowds certainly seem more aggressive then I remember years ago. Two shorter girls pushed in front of me when we all entered Agnes’ apartment and to be honest, I am years past the stage where I will push back at all or even stand my ground aggressively. The performers recognize people and know who is around most of the time. Sometimes that results in those people getting a 1:1 and sometimes it doesn’t. Either way, I am not in a place where I need a 1:1 to feel good about my show.
Jenna reached between the 2 and grabbed my hand to pull me in. The first half of the 1:1 was great but we hit a snag when we had a set malfunction which resulted in her not being able to open the proper door to exit Agnes’ apartment. It wasn’t for lack of trying! She gave me the jellybean before taking my hand and escorting me out to the entryway and back to High street. We watched Pil’s Fulton through the window for a while before he pulled open the door to the autopsy room. I wish I could have seen his face when there was no sexy witch waiting for him. She waited until he came back into the main office before forcefully pushing the door open and standing menacingly in the doorway. She backed Fulton up into the bookshelf behind his desk and proceeded to harass him. She retrieved what she needed then tossed Fulton onto High Street. Jenna’s bartop solo was also great like literally everything she does. 
I didn’t feel like seeing the banquet so I headed up to 5. I love me a matron. I really love me a matron that is able to surprise me. I was delighted to find Ginger Kearns’ matron. The matron played a fun little game where she brought out a hand mirror and used it to watch me as I watched her. I love new, weird matron shit! I also love watching how people come and go. It’s oddly comforting watching other guests and pattens in the hotel. How there can be a mob of people and when you look up 30 seconds later, you are alone in a forest. 
Tori’s Hecate is a powerhouse. She still unnerves me. She is in control of every moment that happens in the rep bar. She has a signature look she gives Agnes when she comes in looking for help. She smirks, quirks her eyebrow, and leans back in her chair sizing Agnes up. This Hecate is playing the long game and she is having the best time doing it.
I was very disappointed to find there were no red licorice bites in Paisley’s Sweet Shop. I begrudgingly settled for a fruit slice. 
The other standout of the show for me was Doug’s Speakeasy. I like my speakeasy one of two ways...either a total jerk or fun and carefree. I want a puppy who either pisses in your shoe every time you come home 5 minutes late or I want the bestest boy ever! I used to call Nick Dillenburg Toolbox Speakeasy because his speakeasy was like a toolbag except also, the whole damn toolbox. I loved it. Doug’s speakeasy is mischievous and funny and adorable. He is a good boy. A loyal servant and a fun speakeasy. He did the most delightful little dance I have seen in ages during his downtime. I LOVED IT!!! He leaned back over his bar and did a little flip/roll to the other side at the start of it. Utterly charming! He also gets points for his cute little tap like dance on the pool table. 
Once again, I hung back when it was time to do the shot game but he summoned me forward. I love watching the different variations on the game from performer to performer. He started with the 3 shots before laying out the cards face down. He made a show of flipping them until all the red Kings were facing up and only one card closest to us remained hidden. When he flipped it, it was a black King. He shuffled the cards before smirking and crouching down to continue shuffling while making noises consistent to hacking up a lung, presumably on said cards. I couldn’t help but laugh out loud at the ridiculous/disgusting nature of it. He came up and we all drew cards. The first person revealed a red King. Doug held out the shot and just before the person could reach it, he sent it flying over his shoulder into the wall behind him. The second person revealed a red King. Doug once again held out the shot and as the person reached for it, he slowly poured it out over the edge of the bar (probably on the white masks shoes). I revealed a red King. He held out the glass and as I reached for it, he drank it himself. 
At this point, he pulled out the box with the whiskey shot. He slowly opened the top and took a big sniff of the contents. We were then invited to do the same. Round two. He narrowed it down to 2 red Kings and the black King. He reshuffled, complete with crouching and coughing. We all drew a card and when we turned them over, the man in the middle had won. He took his shot. Doug took a moment to stare at us all before reaching in and pulling out another shot of whiskey. He then reshuffled and dealt again. We turned over our cards a second time and the same white mask had won again. One game, two shots. Poor dude looked a bit ill by the end of it! We shook hands and the story moved on.
I spent a good amount of time in the bar this show because Elizabeth Lindsay is my absolute favorite. I considered going back in for the finale but in the end, decided that I was having far too much fun chatting which is a new thing for me. I wanted to close out my bar tab before the rush anyway because we had tickets to Bartchland Follies after the show. Would recommend! KaeLyn Hello, weirdos. It’s been a minute, both since we’ve been to the Hotel and since we’ve posted anything remotely resembling a recap. In fact, the formulaic recap era of SNM itself may have passed, as it seems fewer and fewer fandom posts about the show itself are being posted to the hashtag. 
Also, I feel compelled to drop an explainer that we have some questions piled up in our inbox and I just want to say that we do see them and appreciate them, even if we don’t reply. Most likely if we haven't replied it’s because someone else either gets to them first (if, as it often seems, anons are sending those same questions to several old SNM tumblrs at once) or we just don’t see them for a long time because we don’t log in as much and it seems silly by the time we read them. Of course, sometimes we’re just not going to answer on principle (spoilers, rude, etc.). We are still here, queer, going to shows every few months when we can ditch our toddler for a weekend. You’re also likely to catch us at Mayfair or Halloween (Inferno VI? lol). Anyway, our flight home is delayed and we thought it’d be fun to attempt recaps while we were waiting. I imagine mine will come first because I have less to report and, well, Waffle’s recaps have always been more detailed than mine! On Friday, we checked into our hotel and set out to get a leisurely dinner at Ovest, always a good start to a long night in the Hotel. We arrived to the McKittrick around 6:00 PM for a quick drink at Gallow Green, then queued up at 6:30 PM, which I thought was aggressively too early for a 7:30 show, but lucky us–there was a happy hour! Apparently, a thing that’s happening on weekdays? So we were among the first to arrive at the bar, where we unexpectedly ran into some friendly faces from the fandom. One had snagged the corner booth already with some friends. The childfree weekend was off to a great start! It was only made better when Elizabeth (Virginia) showed up and surprised Waffle with a shoulder squeeze.
I rarely full loop these days. Especially after I passed the 100 show mark earlier this year, I have a very chill relationship with Sleep No More. I still look forward to each return, but each show is a slower burn for me and you won’t catch me running up and down the stairs. More often than not, I end up in the bar before the finale. It’s like catching up with an old friend. I find out what’s new. I reminisce on some favorite stories. I settle into a familiar pattern.
This particular night, I started at the ballroom because FOMO-motivated habits are hard to break. The night was kind of a greatest hits list, honestly, and I wish I could tell you I spent time with people I hadn’t watched before or picked up some stuff I hadn’t yet seen (like Doug’s speakeasy), but that’s not what happened. I stayed to watch Stephanie C’s bald witch (f*ck yes) and popped up to catch Nate’s boy witch at the phone booths on his way up to the pool table dance. (Maybe it’s my particular age showing, but Nate looks more like a member of a pop punk band that I definitely saw at Warped Tour in the late 90’s than Draco Malfoy to me. Either way, it works!) 
So, I haven’t been lately and I just have to say that the Nick-Jenna-Stephanie witch trio is A+. Best witch coven energy I’ve seen in a while!I caught the first rave, standing near Tori’s Hecate to catch a bit of everyone’s performance (while the crowd was still light enough that I could also see the prophecy even at a distance). I popped up to five for a bit, which was obviously recently cleaned and freshened up. I actually did a full loop ballroom-to-ballroom with Parker’s porter. Then, I came out to the bar for a drink and chatted with folks out there for the duration of the show.
It was a standard McKittrick re-entry show for me, after a few months away, an all-around solid cast and show. We slid out at the end of the night to go up for the Bartschland Follies (which was superb and sexy and silly and so rad and fun and also had far more straight people who looked slightly scandalized front-and-center in the audience than I anticipated).
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bestatlaundry · 5 years
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Do you seek any laundry services?
 In the past few decades, people are running busy. Especially, Londoners are living in the hectic lifestyle in order to prove them at their workplace. It’s common for both genders. They have a chance to relax at the weekend and evening but this is not enough for spending time with their family.
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At that time, they will see the laundry clothes like mountain that increases their blood pressure, Yes buddies; Of course, it’s a headache while seeing lots of dirty clothes up to their knees. According to London weather, climate is getting changed which you are all know well. So, the kinds of clothes are entirely different at each season. Londoners want to keep their clothes neat and clean but they wouldn’t like to spend their precious time at laundry. With the help of Smartphone, they are still seeking best laundry services across the city.
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chanoyu-to-wa · 6 years
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Nampō Roku, Book 2 (34):  (1587) Fourth Month, Thirteenth Day, Morning.
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34) Fourth Month, Thirteenth Day; Moring¹.
◦ 4.5-mat [room]².
◦ [Guests:]  Tsushima no kami [對馬守]³; Yanagawa Shōken [柳川將監]⁴; Sōkyū [宗及]⁵.
    The [things that were] displayed, and the way the utensils were placed, were the same as on the Eighth Day⁶.
    [However,] the cookery included fish⁷.
◦ Mizusashi Shigaraki [水指 シカラキ]⁸.
_________________________
¹Shi-gatsu jū-san nichi, asa [四月十三日、朝].
    The Gregorian date was May 20, 1587.
    This is another of the chakai that was not included in Kumakura Isao’s modern Japanese version of the Nampō Roku.
    In Shibayama Fugen's manuscript, the date was given as Fourth Month, Twenty-third Day (and so it is numbered in that way in his commentary).  Tanaka Senshō's manuscript, however, agreed with the Enkaku-ji version.
²Yojō-han [四疊半].
    This was the 4.5-mat room in Rikyū's official residence.
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    As during the previous chakai, an ō-ita [大板] was arranged on the utensil mat -- probably on the right side of the mat as shown (as would have been necessary during the previous gathering).
³Tsushima no kami [對馬守].
    This seems to refer to Sō Yoshitoshi [宗義智; 1568 ~ 1615]* (though he was not officially given this title until 1588†).  He was a nobleman, and eventually attained the junior grade of the Fourth Rank as imperial chamberlain (jijū [侍従]). __________ *His given name is sometimes pronounced Yoshitomo [義智], though it is unclear which pronunciation he actually used.
†Which admits the speculation that this entry was subsequently modified.
⁴Yanagawa Shōken [柳川將監].
    In the Rikyū Hyakkai Ki [利休百會記], this man (who also was the ji-kyaku to Sō Yoshitoshi as shōkyaku) is named as Yanagawa gonsuke [柳川権亮].  Some scholars have suggested that this was possibly Yanagawa Shigenobu [柳川 調信; 1539 ~ 1605] -- though primarily based on his dates* -- but the identity of this individual is really unclear.  He seems to have been an assistant or attendant† of Sō Yoshitoshi, who was surnamed Yanagawa.
    Possibly Yanagawa [柳川] is a variant form of Yanagawa [柳河], which was the name of a clan located in Chikugo no kuni [筑後國], in modern-day Fukuoka Prefecture; though even if this were the case, the individual in question has not been satisfactorily identified.
    While Shibayama Fugen states in his brief commentary on this chakai that this person has not been identified, Tanaka Senshō indicates that his sources suggest that Yanagawa Shōken was one of Rikyū's disciples‡. ___________ *But looking at the career of Shigenobu suggests that, even at this point in time, he would have been a much more important man than this record seems to imply.
†Gonsuke [権亮] is a variant of gonsuke [権助].  These terms can mean an assistant to an official (i.e., a vice-official); but gonsuke can also be used to refer to a personal attendant (which, in the case of a nobleman, would hardly have been a man of mean birth or low social standing).  His appearance with Sō Yoshitoshi suggests some such relationship.
‡However, the presence of Tsuda Sōkyū (who likely acted as Rikyū’s assistant) seems to argue against either of the others being very experienced in chanoyu.
⁵Sōkyū [宗及].
   This refers to Tsuda Sōkyū [津田宗吸; ? ~ 1591], one of Rikyū's closest personal friends, and perhaps the man whose sensitivity and taste in chanoyu he most admired among all of his contemporaries.  It is perhaps indicative of his delight in this man that, over the course of their lifetimes, Sōkyū's name is mentioned more often than any other in the guest lists of Rikyū's gatherings.  And as for the passage in which Rikyū describes Sōkyū’s tea (preserved in Book 7 of the Nampō Roku), it is nothing short of gushing in its praise*.
   Sōkyū, together with Rikyū, and (Rikyū's nemesis) Imai Sōkyū [今井宗久; 1520 ~ 1593], were considered the three greatest chajin of their generation.
    On this occasion, Sōkyū probably acted as Rikyū’s hantō [半東] or assistant. __________ *Some have questioned why, if Sōkyū’s chanoyu was truly as wonderful as Rikyū describes, he had not been better dealt with by history.  And the simple fact appears to be that, while Sōkyū built up the wealth of the Tennōji-ya house under Nobunaga’s patronage, he gave his support to Akechi Mitsuhide in the aftermath of Mitsuhide's treachery and Nobunaga’s seppuku (in much the same why that Rikyū did to Hideyoshi).  And while Hideyoshi seemed to forgive him, and retained his services as one of his sa-dō [茶頭], this unfaithfulness toward their lord left a bad taste in Hideyoshi’s mouth, for which Sōkyū paid with his reputation.
⁶Shoji kazari, oki-awase tomo ni yō-ka dōzen [諸事カサリ、置合トモニ八日同前、].
    According to Shibayama Fugen, kazari [飾り] means specifically the objects displayed in the tokonoma*, while oki-awase [置合] refers to the arrangement and disposition of the utensils (on the utensil mat).
    However, apparently the mizusashi was changed for this chakai†.
    This phrase (and the next) end with a tōten [讀點 = 読点], or comma.  This suggests that all three phrases were originally parts of a single sentence, and were separated by Tachibana Jitsuzan (perhaps for clarity, or to emphasize each of these points separately). __________ *The kakemono and the hanaire.
†On the Eighth Day the mizusashi was a kiji-tsurube; but that was used because Rikyū had decided to serve tea using the water from a famous well in Sakai (perhaps a pretext to buy himself time -- since the unexpectedly early arrival of his guests surely threw his plans into confusion:  thus the “delay” could be blamed on the waiting for the tsurube of famous water to arrive, since water could not be drawn until dawn had broken).
⁷Ryōri ha sakana [料理ハ魚、].
    This means that the cooking used fish, or (some of*) the dishes offered on this contained fish.
    This statement is in contrast to what was served on the Eighth (when the earliness of the hour precluded the inclusion of anything that was not already present in the house -- Rikyū apparently included cold food that had been left over from the previous evening's meal -- since fresh fish could not be kept overnight). __________ *Every dish did not contain fish, of course.  Rikyū's point seeming to be that fish was included as is usual during most gatherings.
⁸Mizusashi Shigaraki [水指 シカラキ].
    This was Rikyū's Shigaraki mizusashi (it is shown below).
    To illustrate the things used at this gathering (according to what Rikyū wrote in his entry for the Eighth), then:
○ Shoza [初座]:
◦ in the toko, Mokuan Rei-en’s [黙庵霊淵; ? ~ c 1345] painting of the three monk-poets Hánshān [寒山], Shí-dé [拾得], and Fēng-gān [豐干] (along with a tiger), known as Shi-sui zu [四睡圖] (“Picture of the Four Sleepers”);
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◦ on an ō-ita, Jōō's small bronze Chōsen-buro [朝鮮風爐],
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◦ in which was arranged the (second) small unryū-gama [小雲龍釜];
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◦ also on the ō-ita was placed the habōki [羽帚]*,
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◦ and Rikyū's ruri-suzume kōgō [瑠璃雀香合].
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▵ Other than the fact that the menu included fish, nothing else can be said about the food served at this gathering.
○ Goza [後座]:
◦ in the toko†, the large, wide-mouthed bronze hanaire‡ (this hanaire is now known as Kine-no-ore [杵のをれ]), resting on an usu-ita [薄板]**,
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◦ perhaps containing a botan [牡丹] (a flower of the tree peony††);
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◦ Rikyū's Shigaraki mizusashi [信樂水指] was placed on the utensil mat to the left of the ō-ita furo (on which the hishaku may have been placed),
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◦ with the tea container (a ko-natsume [小棗], probably tied in its shifuku‡‡)
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◦ and his Soto-ga-hama [外ヵ濱] ido-chawan arranged in front of it;
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◦ the chashaku (which was resting across the mouth of the chawan) was an ori-tame [折撓] that Rikyū had made himself;
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◦ and the futaoki and koboshi were a take-wa [竹輪] and mentsū [面桶].
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◎ In fact, it seems that rather than simply replicating the previous chakai (as his own notes seem to suggest), Rikyū, on this occasion, staged the gathering as he originally conceived it (something that was made impossible, on the Eighth, by the unexpectedly early arrival of his guests).
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◎ With respect to the kane-wari, Tanaka Senshō’s explanation of the arrangement of the ō-ita for the shoza (which was included in his notes on the previous chakai) can be illustrated as above.  Since neither the kōgō, nor the habōki, contacted a kane, they had no impact on the total (the toko had the kakemono, and so was han; the room had the ō-ita furo, and so was also han:  han + han is chō, which was appropriate for the shoza).
    As for the goza, the hishaku was probably located in the same place as the habōki***; while the mizusashi (with the ko-natsume and chawan arranged in front of it) was placed to the left of the ō-ita.  The toko (with only the chabana present) would have been han, while the room had the ō-ita and the mizusashi and things arranged with it, and so was chō:  han + chō is han, which is correct for a chakai held during the daytime. ___________ *The habōki was made from three feathers between 9-sun and 1-shaku long, and so was similar to the kind of habōki that are in general use today.
†While Rikyū may have placed the hanaire in front of the kakemono (resting on an usu-ita, on the floor of the toko), in fact that was probably done on the previous occasion specifically because Rikyū decided to display no other utensils on the utensil mat (he spontaneously decided to conduct that gathering based on the form of the hakobi-temae [運び手前]).  On this occasion, the mizusashi and other things were arranged on the utensil mat as usual, and so it seems most likely that Rikyū removed the scroll and displayed the chabana by itself during the goza.
‡Rikyū refers to this hanaire as a kuchi-hiro kane no hanaire [口廣カネノ花入], which means a wide-mouthed metal flower container.
**Rikyū's usu-ita [薄板] was of the variety called the yahazu-ita [矢筈板] today:  it measured 1-shaku 3-sun 2-bu by 9-sun 2-bu.  The notched edge was uneven, and the wider side was placed above (since this ita was derived from a meibutsu naga-bon, and the wider side represented the rim of the tray; while the other represented the foot).
††Perhaps pink, since that was the color preferred by chajin of Rikyū's period -- though at that time botan also came in magenta, purple, and white.  The flower, even if the same color, would have been a different one from that displayed on the Eighth, since customarily a flower was used only once -- and then discarded.
‡‡Though it could also have been tied in a small purple furoshiki (the size of the modern temae-fukusa).
    At any rate, the tea container would have had to be tied in something -- to protect the tea.
***Since placing the futaoki next to the handle of the hishaku would be a replication of the arrangement used during the shoza, Rikyū probably left the take-wa out of the goza’s initial arrangement -- though he may have placed it on the ō-ita (along with the hishaku) at the conclusion of the temae.
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Hysterectomy
Let’s call it what it is. No pussy footing around it. A necessary evil on the way to the end game: phalloplasty. I had been waiting almost six months to hear back about my approval for phalloplasty. I currently have health insurance through Kaiser Permanente, and they had a laundry list of things for me to do in order to present my file to the medical board. I had to transfer my files over from the organization I was seeking healthcare through, as it was cheaper than paying out of pocket for an endocrinologist, to Kaiser. I also had to obtain letters from two medical professionals confirming my need for bottom surgery. The whole process took nearly a year and several trips to medical facilities nearly thirty miles away from my home. My case manager finally called and said in order for the final review to occur, I had to get a hysterectomy.
At the time, I thought that was done by the surgeon performing the phalloplasty at the time of the phalloplasty. With Kaiser, that is not the case. They want anything and everything they have the capability of doing done within their facility. Likely to keep costs down. I didn’t mind. My hysterectomy was scheduled for December 15th, 2018. I had to get blood tests done and watch several videos that didn’t pertain to my situation regarding the procedure. The videos are, obviously, geared towards women. I did what I needed to do and prepared myself for the surgery date. I got a call to move my surgery up about 10 days, even better. Then not 24 hours before the surgery, I received a call stating that it was being delayed for a week. My new date was the 11th. This was terribly inconvenient as my care giver for after my surgery had already taken off work for the original surgery date.
I walked into the facility to check in about an hour early. I had yet another interesting surprise. The surgery was going to cost me money. $475, or close to it. Luckily, I had the money. I was very upset that I wasn’t told about this ahead of time, however. I am paying for the most expensive coverage this company offers so I had as little to pay out of pocket as possible. In the grand scheme of things, $475 is better than $10k. It still would have been nice to know before I showed up. If you have Kaiser, please make sure you know exactly what the costs are before you walk in the door.
I got checked in. I had to remove all of my clothing, put on a hospital gown & surgery cap, and take one final per break. I also forgot to mention I had to stop eating at midnight the day of and wipe my body down with these pre-surgery wipes. I was hungry and my skin smelled weird. They hooked up my IV, fed me my “lunch”, and several doctors came in to ask me questions and verify information. My surgery was supposed to occur at 3pm, but was delayed until closer to 5/530. My surgeon came in to make sure I knew what was about to take place. He also talked to me about a surgeon for bottom surgery in Arizona or New Mexico he was going to refer me to. He had given me the name in our prior consultation. When I looked that surgeon up, I was horrified. The man was fired from the California region Kaiser Permanente for botching transwomens vaginoplasties. The guy didn’t even specialize in phalloplasty. I expressed these concerns to him and told him it probably wouldn’t be a good idea to partner with him for any trans surgeries. Hopefully he heeds my advice. He confirmed that after the surgery, he would stick to the decision to refer me to Dr. Jens Berli of Portland, OR.
I knew nothing of Dr. Berli. There are no results to been seen online, barely anyone who has undergone his procedure even talks about their results, and I couldn’t find any other information besides his starting point in Maryland. I found his Facebook page and did some pretty intense research on him. He seems to genuinely care about his patients and has a passion for what he does. His only negative review is from someone who never had surgery with him because of a communication issue with his staff. Everyone else gave him five stars. So, I figured why the hell not. Hopefully my progress will help others who may be going to Dr. Berli for their phalloplasty be more comfortable with moving forward with him or the surgery itself. I am flying as blind in this moment as some of those who might read this in the future might feel. Trust me. I feel your pain.
I finally went in for my surgery. This time I wasn’t put under until I was on the surgery table. For my top surgery, I was out before I turned the corner on the way to the operating room. The next thing I remember is waking up several hours later and in pain. I couldn’t keep my eyes open. I was very disoriented. I’m not surprised considering I was on anesthesia. Apparently I wasn’t breathing enough either since my O2 alarm kept going off. I had to stay for an extra hour until I could get my breathing going regularly. Which is hard because I believe I have sleep apnea, and when I sleep I breathe much slower than I do when I’m awake. So I would fall back asleep, stop breathing, and be woken up by the nurses to get me to breathe. I didn’t feel any different than I usually do. I was actually quite comfy. But I’m sure it was uncomfortable for others around me to see me breathe 1-2 times a minute while asleep.
I was in so much pain. The pain meds hadn’t kicked in yet. I had had a total hysterectomy, oophorectomy, and partial vaginectomy. Let me tell you. When your genitals are covered in stitches, sitting fucking hurts. I couldn’t get comfortable. Then I had to go to the bathroom. Lord, that was an adventure in of itself. Once I was done, I had to have the nurse help me pull my maternity disposable underwear and extra absorbent pad on. And to help me get dressed. The was a humbling experience. But those disposable underwear are comfortable AF. I wish I had had more of them. I was only sent home with the 1 extra pair. After I got dressed, they sent my care giver to get the car. They sat me in a wheel chair and wheeled me to the pick up area. Wheel chairs are super uncomfortable. I begged the nurse to let me sit on the plushy waiting area seat, but she told me no. I couldn’t wait to get out of that chair. It hurt so bad.
I’ll spare additional details about the trip home. I was basically in pain in the seat, it took over an hour to get home, and I got right in the couch seat I’d be in for the next week and fell asleep. I had to wake up every 1-2 hours to pee and every 4 hours to take my pain meds. Compared to my chest surgery, the pain of the hysterectomy actually wasn’t too bad. I barely needed any medicine. The worst pain came when I peed. It burned like the surface of the sun, and I could barely get the urine out. This lasted for about 2-3 days. I was bleeding pretty regularly for 1-2 weeks and spotting until the 6th week. I had horrible colored discharge the entire recovery. I actually had to go get adult diapers when my last pair of those comfy underwear got worn out. I couldn’t find any of those huge puffy pads or anything without adhesive.
I think the worst part was not being able to poop. I could feel the poop in my back. I really could. But I could not get my bowels to work. Apparently, this is normal. I ended up pooping on day 5. Best advice? Take stool softeners religiously. I would go so far as to say take a laxative on day 3 or 4 because that poop is going to be quite solid. TMI alert, my first poop after surgery tore a little bit of the inside. Like a hemorrhoid. I’m getting into these details because I wish I had had them. It’s not rainbows and butterflies. It’s bleeding and inability to poop. I also could barely sleep as I had to sleep on my back, and I can’t sleep on my back. I get so unfortable. By day 3 I was sleeping on my side on the other couch. I’m also a bigger guy, so I had to hold my stomach when I got up since there was a lot of pain from my belly hanging. I’m not 300+ pounds or anything, but I do have a beer belly. If you are the same, just be prepared for tummy pain when getting up.
I slept on the couch for 3 weeks. It was so much more comfortable than my bed. And it was easy access to everything. I am almost 8 weeks post op and still get tummy pain. But for the most part, pain and blood free. I do still have discharge coming out. I’ll probably continue to wear the diapers until I run out just in case. I had already ruined a pair of pants when I thought the discharge was done. But after about 7-10 days, I was walking around and driving and doing what I needed to do. It was uncomfortable to sit and bend over, so my roommate had to help with a lot of things. My final observation is to leave the scabs alone. I accidentally picked at my belly scab and one of the dissolvable stitches came loose from my incision. I had that stitch hanging out for at least 2 weeks until it finally dissolved at the base and popped off. My scars look great and my hair has finally grown back on my stomach.
I’m doing all of this well after my surgery, so I am sure I have missed a thing or two. If you have any questions, please give me a comment or a message. I will answer anything.
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loubie364 · 6 years
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I haven’t posted anything for a while, due in part to waiting for all the pieces to fall into place for some rather exciting news, for me at least. Today it is 60 days till I go in for Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) surgery!
I have wrestled with the idea of having DBS surgery for the last few years. I know that to some people this might seem like a no-brainer – “have the surgery, get back your quality of life”. It’s a lot easier to say this when it’s not your skull someone is drilling two holes into. So yes, I am a wimp, fear played a part in my decision making (or lack thereof). I justified to myself that there was no urgency to decide because:
There is so much development and exciting discoveries happening in Parkinson’s Disease research (and there are), surely a less invasive procedure will happen soon.
(In my opinion) the progression of the disease, in my case, was relatively slow and I was coping fine.
And, of course there was that fear thing…
After 13 years of living with PD and having to honestly (I am stubborn) admit that in the last 2 years things have become more challenging, the decision whether to have DBS surgery or not had been quite prominent in my thoughts. My wife has been quite keen on the procedure, (possibly to see whether there is in fact a brain in there) but has always made it clear that the decision is mine to make and that she will support me either way. It still came down to me to make the decision, not my neurologist, not my wife…….me! If I am to be totally honest, I had been avoiding making the decision, procrastinating and finding ways to delay it. A nudge, actually more of a shove was needed to get this decision made.
But how did I eventually get here?
I didn’t just wake up one morning and decide let’s do this. A lot of thought and prayer has gone into the decision. I considered my age, my childrens’ ages, what my wife and I would like to do in our future, my health, the progression of the disease, my frustration levels with my symptoms etc. But it was all kick started by a foolish decision I took.
A newish development where the whole procedure can now be done whilst I am blissfully in a state of anaesthesia (as opposed to being awake whilst they drill into my skull and then fiddle around in my brain) has gone some way towards making the decision easier. I don’t really want to be awake when they discover my brain is actually a jelly doughnut – I don’t want to see or think about that.
The Nudge
About 6 months ago I foolishly started following a diet off the internet, a YouTube clip which recommended the ketogenic diet for people with PD and showed the remarkable improvements achieved by the person who was following it. This was strange behaviour for me as I am not a follower of diets and I am generally quite cautious and sceptical of internet advice and usually check things out before trying them. I can only think that the frustration of the symptoms at the time got the better of me and I started the diet. The results were remarkable……that is remarkably disastrous. I lost about 5 kilograms in the first 10 days, my legs started cramping and generally I felt weak. My symptoms got worse, rapidly. At one stage I could not even walk to the kitchen to get my medication, I ended up crawling there. Upon seeking advice from a dietician, it turns out that the ketogenic diet is not good for someone with PD. As our bodies are constantly moving, we need to eat more like a professional sportsman – our bodies require carbohydrates and when the body doesn’t receive enough of that it goes and finds this energy source in its own muscles. It breaks down the muscle and feeds on itself – hence the weight loss and general feeling of weakness. I immediately stopped the diet and subsequently regained the lost kilograms and my symptoms improved somewhat. At the same time, I made an appointment with my neurologist, he was quite shocked by the sudden deterioration and reiterated what the dietician had said about the ketogenic diet and the danger about following advice on the internet. And then DBS made its re-entry. He said I should really give DBS some thought again and knowing from previous discussions my reluctance to being awake during the procedure told me about the new development where you are anaesthetised throughout the procedure. The suggestion was not a surprise, it had been bouncing round in my head as well. I had nothing to lose in starting the process and I don’t want to get to 70 and be left wondering if only I had tried it. I agreed that we could start the process, not committed yet but we could have a look and see.
The first step was to meet with a neuropsychologist. The appointment would take about 3 hours. As it was close to the end of the year, I thought I would struggle to get an appointment, but surprisingly an opening was available for the 23rd of November. This appointment is to assess whether you are prone to depression as this can become worse after DBS surgery and that affects where the stimulators are implanted in your brain. Being quite a private person, I am not a fan of having my life pried open. The assessment involved family history and a variety of tests of cognitive ability and current mental state. Fortunately, I am quite positive, and my cognitive ability is pretty good. It went well and the assessment ended early. The report was positive regarding my mental state and that I am not depressed. So, the first hurdle was cleared. I still had in the back of my mind that as we were now heading into December things would slow down so I would have a fair amount of time to get my mind around the procedure.
So, I was quite surprised when the completed report from the Neuropsychologist was sent a week later and even more surprised when I received a call from the neurosurgeon to say he had an opening on the 21st of December – everything was just falling in to place. It was starting to seem that prayers requesting that if this was the right path that doors would be opened were being answered. The meeting with the neurosurgeon was extremely positive and my wife and I came out of that feeling encouraged and hopeful.
I still had in mind that the process would still take some time. Once again, I was to be proven wrong, when on the 7th of January the neurosurgeon issued his report recommending the DBS surgery and providing a provisional date for the procedure – 2nd March 2019. That was like one haircut away! It had become real so quickly. The required reports were sent to my medical aid for pre-authorisation. A slight delay occurred here as the medical aid was bit slow, resulting in authorisation only being granted on the 25th of February. This resulted in the neurosurgeon having to postpone the procedure as he needed the authorisation by the 22nd of February. The next available date was the 11th of May. So, I do have some time to prepare myself and not feel too rushed.
We’re doing this, I just hope they do find a brain in there 😊.
I am confident that this is the right decision. Lots of prayer has gone into this. It seems like everything is falling into place and leading me down this path, first the Ketogenic diet – something I never do (following unsubstantiated advice on the internet) but did and then the speed at which the neuropsychologists report came out and the rapid availability of the neurosurgeon for the appointment. I have also had so many people contacting me or my wife (out of the blue, with no knowledge that I am about to have the procedure done) with names of people who have had the procedure that are willing to share their experience with me. I believe this is the best time to do the procedure as my kids are going to be 18 and 21 this year and there are so many things I would love to do with them over the next few years. I am tired of always having to consider my symptoms before going out. It would be amazing to do spur of the moment activities again with my wife, my family, my friends without being concerned that I might freeze in the restaurant, cinema etc.
Final thoughts
When I tell people about the procedure, I am often told that I am strong (mentally & emotionally), but that can’t be further from the truth, reality is I am a wimp (as mentioned earlier). But I can only vouch for the truth in Philippians 4:13 “I can do all this through Him who strengthens me”.
I tell people I am going into the procedure with an open mind – literally. It is amusing, but I do need to remind myself to maintain balance. To be hopeful, but to also keep a tight rein on not being too expectant of a massive improvement. I would rather hope for some improvement and be surprised by a substantial improvement rather than expecting 100% and getting 50%.
So, whichever way I look at it, my journey takes a newish direction soon. It may not be a cure, but I am confident this will be the start of regaining some of my life that I have lost.
Hope springs eternal.
“See, I am doing a new thing! Now it springs up; do you not perceive it? I am making a way in the wilderness and streams in the wasteland.” – Isaiah 43:19 {NIV}
“When you look at a field of dandelions you can either see a 100 weeds or a thousand wishes.” – Unknown
“Live in constant anticipation” – Bob Goff
The countdown I haven’t posted anything for a while, due in part to waiting for all the pieces to fall into place for some rather exciting news, for me at least. 1,673 more words
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kramlabs · 6 years
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The term "zeitgeber" (German pronunciation: [ˈtsaɪtˌɡeːbɐ], literally "time giver", i.e., "synchronizer") was first used by Jürgen Aschoff, one of the founders of the field of chronobiology. His work demonstrated the existence of endogenous (internal) biological clocks, which synchronize biological rhythms. In addition, he found that certain exogenous (external) cues, which he called zeitgeber, influence the timing of these internal clocks.
Light
Atmospheric conditions
Medication
Temperature
Social interactions
Exercise
Eating/drinking patterns
Any biological process in the body that repeats itself over a period of approximately 24 hours and maintains this rhythm in the absence of external stimuli is considered a circadian rhythm.[3] It is believed that the brain's suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), or internal pacemaker, is responsible for regulating the body's biological rhythms, influenced by a combination of internal and external cues.[2] To maintain clock-environment synchrony, zeitgebers induce changes in the concentrations of the molecular components of the clock to levels consistent with the appropriate stage in the 24-hour cycle, a process termed entrainment.[4]
Early research into circadian rhythms suggested that most people preferred a day closer to 25–26 hours when isolated from external stimuli like daylight and timekeeping. However, this research was faulty because it failed to shield the participants from artificial light. Although subjects were shielded from time cues (like clocks) and daylight, the researchers were not aware of the phase-delaying effects of indoor electric lights.[5] The subjects were allowed to turn on light when they were awake and to turn it off when they wanted to sleep. Electric light in the evening delayed their circadian phase; these results became well known.[6] More recent research has shown that adults have a built-in day, which averages about 24 hours; indoor lighting does affect circadian rhythms; and most people attain their best-quality sleep during their chronotype-determined sleep periods. A study by Czeisler et al. at Harvard found the range for normal, healthy adults of all ages to be quite narrow:[7] 24 hours and 11 minutes ± 16 minutes. The "clock" resets itself daily to the 24-hour cycle of the Earth's rotation.[6][8]
Biological rhythms, including cycles related to sleep and wakefulness, mood, and cognitive performance, are synchronized with the body's internal circadian clock.[9] The best way to observe the workings of this clock is to experimentally deprive individuals of external cues like light and social interaction and allow the body to experience a "free-running" environment – that is, one in which there are no zeitgebers to influence the body's rhythms.[9] Under these circumstances, the circadian clock alone modulates the body's biological rhythms.[9] Normally however, external cues like light-dark cycles and social interactions also exert an influence on the body's rhythms. These zeitgebers do so by alerting individuals to changes in the likelihood of possible rewards or threats in the environment. For example, humans are more likely to find food and shelter in the daytime and less likely to detect predators in the nighttime, meaning wakefulness tends to be most fruitful during the day and sleep is the safest activity for the nighttime.[10] Therefore, changes in light and darkness influence the body to rise during the day and become fatigued at night.
There are many different zeitgebers, and their relative influence on an individual at any given time depends on a number of factors, including the presence and operation of other kinds of zeitgebers. For example, Jürgen Aschoff showed that individuals can compensate for the absence of some zeitgebers like natural light by attending to social zeitgebers instead. Specifically, individuals placed in total darkness for four days did not differ on a variety of measures, including body temperature and various psychomotor tasks like time estimation and finger tapping, from individuals placed in an artificial light-dark environment when both groups were given the same strict time schedule.[11] Researchers concluded that social zeitgebers, like meal times and interactions with other people, can entrain biological rhythms in ways similar to those of other common zeitgebers like light.
Since the internal clock sets itself using zeitgebers, the loss or disruption of an individual's usual zeitgebers can be very disorienting. When an individual experiences significant changes in zeitgebers, such as being irregularly scheduled for the night shift, those changes can have a variety of negative effects. One example of this phenomenon is jetlag, in which traveling to another time zone causes desynchronization in sleep-wake cycles, appetite, and emotions. Such zeitgeber disruptions can also lead to decreased cognitive performance, negative mood, and in some cases, episodes of mental illness.
Researchers have shown that the 24-hour circadian clock also influences cognitive performance in a wide variety of paradigms, including serial search, verbal reasoning, working memory tasks, suppressing wrong answers, and manual dexterity.[9][12] Performance on these tasks varies over the course of a day, with each type of task having a unique daily rhythm. For example, the best time to perform a working memory task tends to be midday, while immediate memory is best in the morning, and simple processing is ideally performed in the evening.[12] In addition, individual differences among participants can have an effect on daily rhythms in performance. Studies have found that children perform mental math exercises most successfully in the morning,[13] but young adults' performance peaks in the evening.[14] This variation in the performance of various tasks is attributable to a number of factors, including relative working memory load, change in strategy, hemispheric dominance, ability to suppress wrong answers, age, level of practice, and morningness-eveningness, many of which fluctuate according to time of day.[12] Based on these findings, researchers conclude that factors that disturb circadian rhythms can also affect cognitive performance.
Disturbances in zeitgebers can exert a negative influence on emotion and mood as well as cognitive functioning.[9] The disturbance of biological rhythms by zeitgebers is theorized to increase risk for some forms of psychopathology. There is strong evidence that individuals with depression experience irregular biological rhythms, including disrupted sleep-wake cycles, temperature, and cortisol rhythms.[15] These findings support the theory first proposed by Ehlers, Frank, and Kupfer in 1988 that says that stressful life events can lead to depressive episodes by disrupting social and biological rhythms, leading to negative symptoms like sleep disturbance that can trigger depression in vulnerable individuals.[1]Recent work has also demonstrated that interventions like light therapy, sleep deprivation, and some pharmacological antidepressants may be effective in treating depression by reordering these rhythms to their natural state.[16] Such interventions influence an individual's mood, body temperature, cortisol levels, and melatonin production, all of which appear to be irregular in depressed individuals.
Some researchers have suggested that the disturbances in biological rhythms present in depressed individuals may actually be the result of previous disruptions in social interactions, which serve as cues for those rhythms.[1] This possibility may help to explain the relationship between stressful life events and the development of mood disorders. For example, newly married or cohabiting couples often need to adjust to each other's sleeping rhythms when beginning to share the same bed for the first time. This adjustment can be difficult and may lead to disruptions in sleep quality and quantity, and possibly increase risk for depression as a result. Researchers have attempted to explore the effect life events that disturb social rhythms might have on depressive symptoms in a number of ways. A number of studies have looked at whether the loss of a spouse, a significant negative life event often associated with increased depressive symptoms, might lead to increased depression via disrupted social rhythms. In addition to grief, bereaved spouses may also be dealing with changes in numerous social zeitgebers. For instance, bereaved spouses may suddenly be faced with changes in meal times, responsibilities for additional chores, social expectations, or simply the reality of living day to day without one's usual conversational partner. Taken together, findings from studies on bereaved spouses indicate that when bereavement is associated with changes in social rhythms, depressive symptoms are likely to increase; however, if bereaved individuals are able to maintain social rhythms after the death of their spouse, increased depression is less likely.[2] These findings suggest that social rhythm stability may not be entirely dependent on life events, but rather has some traitlike elements as well, since some individuals may be more likely to maintain social rhythms than others following the occurrence of a significant life event.
Recent studies have also found a connection between the disruption of social rhythms and the triggering of manic episodes in bipolar disorder.[17] Differentiating between zeitgeber disturbances that lead to depression and those that lead to manic episodes has proven difficult. However, in both unipolar and bipolar depression, the concept of social zeitgebers as potential risk factors has influenced the development of interventions to address this risk. For bipolar disorder, Interpersonal and Social Rhythm Therapy (IPSRT) is meant to regulate and normalize an individual's social rhythms, including meal times, personal relationships, exercise, and social demands. By regulating social rhythms, therapists hope to normalize in turn individuals' biological rhythms. Studies have not found much evidence that IPSRT improves mood, but individuals undergoing IPSRT experience longer periods between bipolar episodes, indicating that normalizing social rhythms may have a preventative effect.[16]
Seasonal affective disorder may occur as a result of deficiencies in zeitgebers (such as light) during the winter months that stimulate the reward activation system, resulting in a depressed mood. Some studies have pointed to the hormone melatonin, which is regulated by circadian rhythms, as a possible mechanism.[18] Because circadian clocks synchronize human sleep-wake cycles to coincide with periods of the day during which reward potential is highest – that is, during the daytime[10] – and recent studies have determined that daily rhythms in reward activation in humans are modulated by circadian clocks as well,[10] external influences on those rhythms may influence an individual's mood.
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Real Time Wave Prediction Using Neural Networks at Karwar, West Coast of India-Juniper Publishers
Abstract
The knowledge of ocean waves is an essential prerequisite for almost all activities in ocean. Traditional methods have disadvantages of excessive data requirement, time consumption and are tedious to carry out. ANN is being widely applied in coastal engineering field since last two decades in variety of time series forecasting. Study has been carried out to predict waves using FFBP and NARX networks. Wave data obtained from INCOIS is made use in the present study. Effect of network architecture on the performance of the model has been studied. It was found that for time series prediction NARX network outperforms FFBP.
Keywords: Artificial neural network; Feed forward back propagation network; Non-linear auto regressive with exogenous input; Coastal engineering
Introduction
Accurate forecasting of wave characteristics is important for many coastal and marine activities. Different methods have been developed for this purpose. There are many empirical formulae for wave growth which have been derived from large visually observed data sets. The curves developed by Sverdrup and Munk in 1947 and Pierson, Neumann and James in 1955 (PNJ) were also used for wave forecasting. These two number of visual observations by graphical methods using known parameters of wave characteristics. Its major disadvantage is the time necessary to make the computations and also it requiring large information about oceanographic and meteorological data.
A new model based on the working of human brain has been idealized to meet the objective of learning relationship between complex parameters involved in the interaction without having to know the underlying physics behind it. As it is an attempt to mimic the capabilities of human neural system it is called Artificial Neural Network (ANN). An extensive literature survey has been carried out to understand the dynamics of ocean waves, their interactions and transformations. As the subject is very vast only some relevant literature which implemented the neural network for wave forecasting has been presented. [1] describes the application of neural network analysis in forecasting of significant wave height with 3 hour lead period. Wave forecasting was done using wind velocity, fetch and duration as input parameters by [2]. The results were not satisfactory fetch and duration was excluded as their presence did not have any effect on predictions. After MuCulloch and introduced the concept of ANN, many models were developed. Among those models the multi-layered network trained by back propagation algorithm has been applied extensively to solve various engineering problems by [3]. They reported an application of the feed forward neural network to forecast the wave heights of a site based on the observed wave data of other sites at Taichung Harbor. Results showed that wave forecast of a local site has a better performance when the wave data of multisite observations are used. The most common training algorithm is the standard back-propagation (BP), although numerous training schemes are available to impart better training with the same set of data as shown by [4] in their harbor tranquility studies. The work carried out by [5] describes hind casting of wave heights and periods from cyclone generated wind fields using two input configurations of neural network. They use updated algorithms in back propagation neural network and the wave forecasting yielded better results. Deo MC [6] describes the application of neural network analysis in forecasting of significant wave height with 3 hour lead period. They have carried out different combinations of training patterns to obtain the desired output in addition to the work of average 12 hour and a day wave forecasting. They used three different algorithms of back propagation, conjugate gradient descent and cascade correlation to predict wave height. Tsai CP [3] used back propagation neural network to forecast the ocean waves based on learning characteristics of observed waves and also based on wave records at the neighboring stations. Dwarakish GS [4] carried out a study to predict the breaking wave height and depth using five different datasets. Deo M [7] explained multilayered feed forward and recurrent networks with conjugate gradient and steepest descent with momentum method to predict waves and compared the results with those obtained from stochastic models of Auto Regressive and Auto Regressive eXogenous input models. Sensitivity analysis showed that wind speed and direction is the most important parameter for wave hind casting. Present study utilizes the advantages of Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP) and Non-linear Auto Regressive eXogenous (NARX) networks for prediction of waves [8-10].
Methods
FFBP network
Development of ANN can be attributed to the attempt carried out to mimic the working pattern of human brain. Its success lies in its ability to exploit the non-linear relationship between input and output data by continuously adapting itself to the information provided to it by means of some learning process. ANN can be classified based on network type in to feed forward and feedback or recurrent networks. The basic difference between the two is that, in feed forward networks the information is passed from one layer to the other in a forward manner till the output is obtained in the output layer. Whereas in, feedback network the output obtained in the output layer is fed back in to the network through input layer thus this type of network will have minimum of single loop in its structure. A neural network consisting of a set of connected cells called the neurons. A graphical representation of neuron is given in Figure 1.
A neuron is a real function of input vectors xl, x2, x3....xn and wkl, wk2, wk3...wkn are the weights associated with the connections i.e. synaptic weight connections from input neuron 'i' to neuron 'k'. 'k' neuron is the summing junction where net input is given by
uk = Σ wki* xi (1)
vk=uk+bk (2)
bk is the bias value at the kth neuron.
The output yk is the transformed weighted sum of vk
Yk = ⌉ (vk) (3)
Where, is the transfer function or activation function used to convert the summed input. A nonlinear sigmoid function which is monotonically increasing and continuously differentiable is the most commonly used activation function. It can be mathematically expressed as,
Yk = ⌉(vk) = 1/(1+exp(-avk))
Once the activities of all output units have been determined, the network computes the error E, which is defined by the expression.
E = 1/2Σ(yi - di) 2 (5)
Where yi is the activity level of the ith unit in the top layer and di is the desired output of the ith unit. The most commonly used learning algorithm in coastal engineering application is the gradient descent algorithm. In this the global error calculated is propagated backward to the input layer through weight connections as in Figure 2, during which the weights are updated in the direction of steepest descent or in the direction opposite to gradient descent. However the overall objective of any learning algorithm is to reduce the global error, E defined as
Where Ep is the error at the pth training pattern, Ok is the obtained output from network at the kth output node and tk is the target output kth output node and N is the total number of output nodes. Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm used in this study can be written as
Wnew=Wold-[JT+γl]-1JTE(Wold) (8)
Where J is the Jacobian matrix that contains first derivatives of the network errors with respect to the weights and biases, I is the identity matrix and γ is the parameter used to define the iteration step value. It minimizes the error function while trying to keep the step between old weight configuration (Wold) and new updated one (Wnew). The performance of the network is measured in terms of various performance functions like mean squared error (MSE or 'mse'), root mean squared error (RMSE) and Co-efficient of Correlation (CC or 'R') between the predicted and the observed values of the quantities [11-13].
NARX network
In the present study along with FFBP, a recurrent type of network namely Non-linear Auto Regressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) has also been used. In recurrent networks, the output depends not only on the current input to the network but also on the previous input and output of the network. The response of the static network at any point of time depends only on the value of the input sequence at that same point whereas, the response of the recurrent networks lasts longer than the input pulse. This is done by introducing a tapped delay line in the network which makes the input pulse last longer than its duration by an amount which is equal to the delay given in the tapped delay. This makes network to have a memory of the input that is fed. The defining equation for the NARX model is
y(t) = f( y(t-1), y(t-2),.... y(t-ny), u(t-1), u(t-2) u(t-nu)) (9)
Where, the next value of the dependent output signal y(t) is regressed on previous values of an independent (exogenous) input signal. The output of NARX network can be considered to be an estimate of the output of some non-linear dynamic system that is being modeled. The output is fed back to the input of the feed forward network in standard NARX architecture as shown in Figure 3. Since the true output is available during training, the true output itself can be used instead of feeding back the estimated output as shown in Figure 4. This will have two advantages. The first is that the input to the feed forward network is more accurate. The second is that the resulting network has a purely FFBP architecture and static back propagation can be used for training instead of dynamic back propagation, which has complex error surfaces exposing the network to higher chances of getting trapped in local minima and hence requiring more number of training iterations [14-16].
Network parameters and performance indicators
Three layered FFBP network with single input layer, hidden layer and output layer was used. Tangent sigmoid (tansig) was used in the hidden layer as transfer function as data was normalized to fall in the range of -1 to 1 and purely linear (purelin) transfer function was used in the output layer, as this combination of 'tansig' and 'purelin' transfer function is capable of approximating any function. The training was carried out using the aforementioned network architecture for various data size matrices. The number of the neurons in the hidden layer was kept on increasing starting from one, till the best combination was found in terms of network performance indicators. One thousand iterations were set as the stopping criteria for the training of the network. The performance of the network is measured in terms of various performance indicators like sum squared error (SSE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and co-efficient of correlation (CC or 'R') between the predicted and the observed values of the quantities. In the present study 'mse' and 'R' are used as performance indicators; lower value of MSE and higher value of 'R' indicates better performance of the network.
Mean square error: In statistics, the mean squared error of an estimator measures the average of the squares of the 'errors', ie., the difference between the estimator and what is estimated. It is given by the formula
mse = Σ(xi-yi)2/n (10)
Correlation co-efficient: It measures the strength of association between the variables also it represents the direction of the linear relationship between two variables that is defined as the covariance divided by the product of their standard deviations and is given by the formula:
R = Σ(Xi.yi)/√(Σxi2).(Σyi2) (11)
Study area and data division: The study is carried out for Off Karwar coast located at northern tip in the coastal segment of Karnataka state, along west coast of India. It lies between 14.083 North latitude and 74.083 East longitude as shown in Figure 5.
FFBP and NARX networks have been used for the prediction of waves at Karwar. Significant wave height from January 2011 to December 2013 obtained from Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) is made use of in the present study. Predictions were carried out for various length of duration using a week's data and month's data as input. The data was divided into weekly and monthly data sets for the prediction of waves using various duration of data sets. In weekly data sets a row in a input matrix comprises of 336 data points. These rows represent a single node in the input and output layer of the network. Similarly in monthly data sets a single row consists of 1440 data points. In the present study yearly data sets were divided into 12 months consisting of 30 days each for the regularity of input data matrix size.
Results and Discussion
Prediction with FFBP network
In the present study four week’s prediction was carried out using one week's wave data from 01/01/2011 to 07/01/2011 as input. The target data set comprised readings of four weeks duration from 08/01/2011 to 04/02/2011 (28 days), a week’s data having 336 time steps represent a single node in this case, similarly output layer consists of four nodes for four weeks of data. Subsequent weeks in similar fashion were given as input and target for testing the trained network. The ‘R’ values showed marginal increase in 4 weeks prediction which might be due to the increased number of target values available for the network generalization. However the ‘R’ value decreased for the 12 weeks significant wave height as one week's input data range was too small for predicting a long duration of 12 weeks wave height. The number of neurons was increased in hidden layer by one after every prediction. The best performance was obtained at four and six neurons in hidden layer during 4 weeks and 12 weeks prediction of significant wave height. The training performance showed considerable increase in 'R' values but testing 'R' values drastically reduced hinting at the overfitting behaviour of the network when the number of neurons was increased beyond four and six during 4 weeks and 12 weeks significant wave height prediction when number of neurons in hidden layer was increased. In both the cases the prediction duration is large (4 weeks and 12 weeks) compared to input data of one week. Table 1 gives the results of weekly prediction duration of four weeks and twelve weeks using one week’s data as input. Naturally the range of targets will be greater than those of input provided, weakening the prediction capability of the network when new data set is fed to the network.
Similarly, yearlong predictions are carried out using data of year 2011 as input and data of year 2012 as target in training process and next two consecutive year’s data (2012 and 2013) as input and target for simulation purpose respectively. The input and output layer consist of 52 nodes representing 52 weeks data for a single year. The prediction done using yearlong data yielded satisfactory results with training process 'R' value reaching up to 0.988 and simulation 'R' value reaching up to 0.957. The optimum number of neurons beyond eight led to decrease in the prediction capability of the trained network when simulation data sets are presented to the network as seen in Table 2. The scatter plot of training and simulation of the network is shown in Figure 6 & 7. The plot of observed values and predicted values is shown in the Figure 8.
Monthly prediction involved feeding the network with a month’s data having 1440 data points in a single input node. The year 2011 hourly wave data were divided into twelve sets having 1440 data points each corresponding to 30 days of observation, hence the yearly data comprised of 01/01/2011 to 26/12/2011 (360 days). For one month’s wave prediction data from 01/01/2011 to 30/01/2011 and from 31/01/2011 to 01/03/2011 was given as input and target data respectively. The subsequent data of 30 days period were given as input and targets for testing purpose. The number of neurons was increased in the hidden layers, however not much appreciable improvement was seen hence the number of neurons was taken as one for all the forthcoming predictions which has a month's data as input in a single node which involved one month's data as input as shown in Table 3.
A year’s data set contains 17592 readings however this was cut short to 17472 readings so that the data can be divided equally in to 12 months comprising of 30 days (1440 readings) each. Prediction for entire year using 12 months data of year 2011 as input with equal number of input nodes is carried out giving the year 2012 wave data of 12 months as target during the training process. The trained network is then used to predict the 2012 wave data using 2011 wave data as input. The results obtained are very good in this case and 'mse' value as low as 191.67 and 1234.18 were obtained for training and simulation respectively, also high 'R' value of 0.980 and 0.977 were obtained. The optimum number of neuron in hidden layer is found to be six in this case. The increase in number of neurons beyond six led to decrease in the prediction capability of the trained network when simulation data sets are presented to the network as seen in Table 4. Figure 9 & 10 gives the scatter plot of training and simulation of the network. The plot of observed values and predicted values are shown in the Figure 11.
Prediction with NARX network
Data was divided into weekly and monthly sets in a similar fashion as done for the purpose of prediction of waves using FFBP network. Weekly predictions were carried out using one week’s data to predict 4, 12, 25 and 52 weeks wave predictions respectively. The results obtained in terms of 'mse' and 'R' was good ranging from 0.99 for one week's prediction to greater than 0.97 for 25 weeks prediction. However the accuracy dropped to 0.85 for predictions of 52 week wave data using one week's data. The use of target data as one of the input nodes as explained in Figure 3 helped in improving the efficiency of the network and also in long term prediction of wave data using small amount of data. The best performance for prediction of 25 weeks was obtained for seven numbers of neuron in the hidden layer. The variation of 'R' values for the case is shown in Table 5.
The increase in number of neurons beyond seven led to decrease in the prediction capability of the trained network when simulation data sets are presented to the network as seen in Table 6. Scatter plot and graph observed versus predicted waves are shown in Figure 12-14.
Monthly predictions were also carried out on similar lines using one month data set for predictions of wave height with duration ranging from one month to twelve months the results of which are tabulated in the Table 7. January 2011's data used as input and subsequent months as target for all training iterations of various lengths of predictions. One year's prediction can be obtained with accuracy greater than 0.98. Also the NARX network's results in both the weekly and monthly analysis showed steady decrease in accuracy when the duration of prediction was increased keeping the input data length as constant. The increase in neurons in the hidden layer beyond the best network architecture also showed gradual decrease in accuracy rather than varied ones which would have rendered the study inconclusive.
The increase in number of neurons beyond six led to decrease in the prediction capability of the trained network when simulation data sets are presented to the network as seen in Table 8. Scatter plot of training and simulation are shown in Figure 15 & 16. The graph of observed and predicted values are shown in Figure 17.
Conclusion
Traditional methods of predictions of waves were carried based on semi empirical formulations and numerical modeling which is data intensive. The present study makes use of relatively new technique of ANN which has been tried and tested in various coastal engineering applications. Predictions for yearlong significant wave height using equal length of input data of weekly and monthly sets gave satisfactory results in FFBP network with co-efficient of correlation values greater than 0.95 in both the cases. Whereas, using the NARX network, one week's data was successfully utilized to predict waves at the same location for six months duration with 'R' value greater than 0.86. The yearlong prediction using one month’s data gave good 'R' value of 0.97. The NARX network outperformed FFBP network in terms of data requirement and accuracy achieved also it takes less computational time as well.
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liskantope · 6 years
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So I just got back from another trip. This time, everything went very well until the journey back. I think I’ll relate the highlights of it here, as maybe it’s mildly entertaining and funny to look back at, but also it provides an example of what feels like evidence of the semi-inevitability of my screwing up which makes me associate travel with stress, topped off with an example of my issues with self-doubt over judging reasonable levels of generosity.
So I was traveling between countries entirely by bus -- in fact, my tickets each way were single (very long) trips with no connections. For the journey home, I woke myself up before 6am to depart at 7:30. I arrived sensibly early, but the bus never arrived at the platform. Adding to my worry, nobody else at the platform seemed to be taking my bus, although everyone I showed my ticket to nodded and said something along the lines of “yeah, you’re in the right place”. I did eventually notice a text indicating that my bus would be half an hour late, which is apparently pretty normal for Flixbus, but eventually it was almost two hours of waiting at the platform (afraid to leave it in case the bus did come when I was gone) and still nothing. I’ll skip over the details of the next half-hour, which consisted of a lot of running up and down stairs of the building with my suitcase, going between the information desk and the Flixbus desk (which seemed open but vacated) and calling the local Flixbus number (which began with a recorded message in the local language, followed by “For English, press 1″, then after pressing 1 another recording in the local language!).
The point is that I eventually learned I had missed the bus because I misunderstood the ticket in a way in which I should have known better, although I’m still thinking of complaining to Flixbus about their formatting. Namely, the ticket showed the actual platform number (an x0x 3-digit number) in very small writing that came out very light from my black-and-white work building printer, so that it’s almost illegible and certainly not very noticeable. Meanwhile, it also showed the connection number (also an x0x 3-digit number!) in normal-sized dark writing, and it so happened that this number happened to be the number of one of the main platforms in the bus station! It had registered me that “connection” probably referred to the route itself, but I had sort of in the back of my mind figured that maybe at this station each route always departed from the same gate (this is true of small airports that I’ve known, for instance).
So I screwed up, in a way that seemed obvious as soon as I saw my mistake but which didn’t occur to me at the time (it doesn’t help that sleep deprivation is always an issue for me when I travel, but this trip was especially bad with mostly 5-hour sleeps all week). And at least nobody else was affected by my mistake, and I’d have to pay some 40 Euros for a new ticket but I’m not broke, and I’d be badly delayed getting home but I didn’t have that many rigid obligations the next day. So, not a disaster in the grand scheme of things, but still, I screwed up for a dumb reason and now my trip was going to be more expensive and a lot less pleasant because of it. And I still feel like I do this kind of thing way too much.
So I’ll skim over a lot more running around and now getting very impatient (to the point of uncharacteristically raising my voice) with the ticket desk (which refused to actually sell tickets) and the Flixbus desk (where now for some reason the woman who had been doing currency exchange before was now working, it seemed?). The Flixbus desk flat-out wouldn’t accept cards, and I had most but not all of the cost of the new ticket in local currency, but luckily a woman in line behind me did a good deed and gave me the rest of the money. (I offered to buy her some refreshment at whatever cafe in the station accepted cards, which she firmly refused, but later I ran into her at one of the cafes where she’d gotten herself a coffee and she invited me to sit and pleasantly chat for most of an hour. Definitely the bright part of my day. Helps me keep in mind the importance of extending kindness to someone who seems to be having a rough day for sure!)
My new journey had a connection in the middle (this is the part that gets more comical rather than beating-myself-up angsty). Near the end of the first bus ride I badly wanted to wash my face. Here’s where I should mention that my face gets extremely oily very quickly -- it becomes noticeable to me only about 20 minutes after I wash it, but this had been hours. The little bathroom on the bus was nicely kept up, with soap and paper towels and a plastic faucet but no apparent way to make water flow through it. So once I got off the bus, my first priority was to find a cafe in the main square across from the bus station where I could buy something and then use the bathroom. At the cafe I found, they said they only took card if it was 5 Euros or more (remember I’d physically emptied my wallet on the new ticket), so I wound up gathering five small items including two bottles of water (I was super dehydrated as well). After paying, I went into their bathroom, only to find running water but no soap. So much for that.
So I wandered out into the center of the square, which was really a roundabout on the other side of which was the big train station where there would surely be a bathroom. I was squinting in the bright sun when something happened that’s happened a lot of times before when my face gets excessively greasy, but never this badly. Some of the oil started seeping into my eyes, which makes them very stingy. Closing my eyes tightly made a lot more of it get in, which got my tear ducts started, and the next thing I knew, copious tears were absolutely pouring down my face for about five minutes. Soon I was sniffling pretty badly as well, and I must have looked like I was crying uncontrollably. And I was in a hurry to get back into the train station, but doing that required crossing the street at a busy roundabout while mostly blind, so it took a while.
Skim over the next two hours of finding an ATM, finding a bathroom, having to backtrack to find where I’d left my water bottles that I still hadn’t had a chance to open, nearly an hour of somehow forgetting where the bus station was even though I’d just come out of there an hour ago and never left that plaza, and the next bus coming half an hour late. By the time I arrived back in the city where I live, it was 2am and all I could think of was how badly I wanted to be finally home in my comfortable bed. But two problems: (1) because of the lateness of the second bus I just missed the time when the metro closed, and as I lived on the other side of the city that meant I was going to spend the next hour going by one of the night buses (taxis are incredibly expensive here); and (2) the nice but eccentric Algerian man I’d been chatting with while waiting in the connection city apparently had a habit of traveling spontaneously without arranging for lodging and politely but desperately asked if he could stay at my place for the night.
Here’s where my whole instinct to be agreeable and generous kicked in, along with self-doubts about (1) is my instinct a product of actual empathy or just a sort of cowardice where I hate to say no to anyone even though the guy was being super polite and un-pressuring, or are both those feelings just two sides of the same coin with me; (2) am I being irresponsible and gullible and putting myself in danger just by considering this because I don’t have the imagination to consider a hundred ways it could go wrong*; or (3) am I being kind of a jerk and/or paranoid over nothing or maybe a little subconsciously racist/xenophobic since I happily offered to do something similar a couple of years ago for an American guy who seemed a little better put together; and all of this was underlied by a deep mental and physical exhaustion and internal freaking out over how unfit I felt to competently judge the situation anyway after almost 24 hours of being mostly awake.
(I suppose that wins the record for (Technically) Longest Run-On Sentence Ever Posted on Liskantope’s Tumblr.)
I was actually pretty transparent towards the guy about my misgivings but he seemed genuine enough and I did want to help him, so in the end my compromise was that I’d let him into my apartment building and briefly into my apartment to use the bathroom (I wound up encouraging him to take a quick shower as well), but then he would sleep outside on the balcony where far underneath the roof we keep a sofa, and I’d hope the neighbors wouldn’t notice and get pissed. It was the perfect, most pleasantly warm night for sleeping outside, and I lent him my extra set of sheets and pillows. He accepted all this really graciously and seemed to sleep well, then left in the morning while I was taking my shower. So I think that went okay and I’m glad I helped him and I only hope my visible reservations didn’t hurt his feelings too much. But it goes to show how my internal compass for making those kind of judgment calls is totally aimless -- I still feel absolutely no gut sense of whether that approach was reasonable or not. And such a gut sense would be good to have.
Anyway, that was my day. And this post was less a form of venting and more a product of the idle pleasure I get sometimes out of narrating mini-episodes of my life which are mostly already funny to revisit (and the crying in the middle of the roundabout bit felt kind of comical to me even while it was happening), but which do highlight a couple of ongoing personal issues I’m trying to work on.
* To be clear, I’m a man, and I fully realize that the equation would be quite different for a woman, and also quite different if the asking party were a woman; still, most adult men including this one could physically overpower me without much difficulty.
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